Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice

Long-term assessment of relationships between changing environmental conditions and the physiology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Climate change is influencing polar bear (Ursus maritimus) habitat, diet, and behavior but the effects of these changes on their physiology is not well understood. Blood-based biomarkers are used to assess the physiologic health of individuals but their usefulness for evaluating population health, especially as it relates to changing environmental conditions, has rarely been explored. We describe links between environmental conditions and physiologic functions of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears using data from blood samples collected from 1984 to 2018, a period marked by extensive environmental change. We evaluated associations between 13 physiologic biomarkers and circumpolar (Arctic oscillation index) and regional (wind patterns and ice-free days) environmental metrics and seasonal and demographic co-variates (age, sex, season, and year) known to affect polar bear ecology. We observed signs of dysregulation of water balance in polar bears following years with a lower annual Arctic oscillation index. In addition, liver enzyme values increased over time, which is suggestive of potential hepatocyte damage as the Arctic has warmed. Biomarkers of immune function increased with regional-scale wind patterns and the number of ice-free days over the Beaufort Sea continental shelf and were lower in years with a lower winter Arctic oscillation index, suggesting an increased allocation of energetic resources for immune processes under these conditions. We propose that the variation in polar bear immune and metabolic function is likely indicative of physiologic plasticity, a response that allows polar bears to remain in homeostasis even as they experience changes in nutrition and habitat in response to changing environments.

Estimating age of mule deer in the field: Can we move beyond broad age categories?

Age of individuals is an intrinsic demographic parameter used in the modeling and management of wildlife. Although analysis of cementum annuli from teeth is currently the most accurate method used to age ungulates, the age of live ungulates in the field can be estimated by examining tooth wear and tooth replacement patterns. However, there may be limitations to aging based on tooth wear as the rate of tooth wear likely varies among individuals due to factors such as age, diet, environment, and sex. Our objective was to determine the reliability of estimating age for mule deer based on tooth wear and tooth replacement patterns. We compared ages estimated by tooth wear (collected at time of capture for a statewide monitoring effort) to ages determined from cementum analysis (from teeth collected after mortalities of radio-tracked animals from the monitoring effort). Accuracy was high; ages estimated from tooth wear were within one year of cementum ages >75% of the time when aged by experienced observers. Bias in accuracy for estimates of age was low but slightly biased toward underestimation (i.e., 0.6 years on average)-especially as cementum age increased. Our results indicate that aging mule deer using patterns in tooth wear can be reliable if observers estimating age have experience using this method.

Anthropogenic Neighborhood Impact on Bacterial and Fungal Communities in Polar Bear Feces

Climate changes cause a dramatical increase in the ice-free season in the Arctic, forcing polar bears ashore, closer to human settlements associated with new and non-natural food objects. Such a diet may crucially transform the intestinal microbiome and metabolism of polar bears. The aim of this study was to characterize changes in the gut bacterial and fungal communities resulting from the transition to anthropogenic food objects by the means of 16S and ITS metabarcoding. Thus, rectal samples from 16 wild polar bears from the Kara-Barents subpopulation were studied. Human waste consuming resulted in a significant increase in the relative abundance of fermentative bacteria (Lactobacillaceae, Leuconostocaceae, and Streptococcaceae) and a decrease in proteolytic Enterobacteriaceae. However, the alpha-diversity parameters remained similar. Also, for the first time, the composition of the fungal community of the polar bear intestine was determined. Diet change is associated with the displacement of eurybiontic fungi (Thelebolus, Dipodascus, Candida (sake), and Geotrichum) by opportunistic Candida (tropicalis), Kazachstania, and Trichosporon. Feeding on human waste does not cause any signs of dysbiosis and probably leads to adaptive changes in the bacterial microbiome. However, the emergence of fungal facultative pathogens increases the risk of infections.

Glacial ice supports a distinct and undocumented polar bear subpopulation persisting in late 21st-century sea-ice conditions

Polar bears are susceptible to climate warming because of their dependence on sea ice, which is declining rapidly. We present the first evidence for a genetically distinct and functionally isolated group of polar bears in Southeast Greenland. These bears occupy sea-ice conditions resembling those projected for the High Arctic in the late 21st century, with an annual ice-free period that is >100 days longer than the estimated fasting threshold for the species. Whereas polar bears in most of the Arctic depend on annual sea ice to catch seals, Southeast Greenland bears have a year-round hunting platform in the form of freshwater glacial mélange. This suggests that marine-terminating glaciers, although of limited availability, may serve as previously unrecognized climate refugia. Conservation of Southeast Greenland polar bears, which meet criteria for recognition as the world's 20th polar bear subpopulation, is necessary to preserve the genetic diversity and evolutionary potential of the species.

Polar Bear Harvest Patterns Across the Circumpolar Arctic

Wildlife harvest remains a conservation concern for many species and assessing patterns of harvest can provide insights on sustainability and inform management. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are harvested over a large part of their range by local people. The species has a history of unsustainable harvest that was largely rectified by an international agreement that required science-based management. The objective of our study was to examine the temporal patterns in the number of polar bears harvested, harvest sex ratios, and harvest rates from 1970 to 2018. We analyzed data from 39,049 harvested polar bears (annual mean 797 bears) collected from 1970 to 2018. Harvest varied across populations and times that reflect varying management objectives, episodic events, and changes based on new population estimates. More males than females were harvested with an overall M:F sex ratio of 1.84. Harvest varied by jurisdiction with 68.0% of bears harvested in Canada, 18.0% in Greenland, 11.8% in the USA, and 2.2% in Norway. Harvest rate was often near the 4.5% target rate. Where data allowed harvest rate estimation, the target rate was exceeded in 11 of 13 populations with 1–5 populations per year above the target since 1978. Harvest rates at times were up to 15.9% of the estimated population size suggesting rare episodes of severe over-harvest. Harvest rate was unrelated to a proxy for ecosystem productivity (area of continental shelf within each population) but was correlated with prey diversity. In the last 5–10 years, monitored populations all had harvest rates near sustainable limits, suggesting improvements in management. Polar bear harvest management has reduced the threat it once posed to the species. However, infrequent estimates of abundance, new management objectives, and climate change have raised new concerns about the effects of harvest.

Case Studies in Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) Sperm Collection and Cryopreservation Techniques

Simple Summary

Polar bears are threatened by habitat loss, decreased food availability, and reduced reproductive success due to climate change. Zoo populations can support species survival through preservation of genetic diversity and maintenance of insurance populations, but in the US, the zoo polar bear population is currently not sustainable. The development of sperm collection and cryopreservation can help to support the population by providing the biomaterial needed for assisted reproductive techniques, such as artificial insemination. However, these procedures are not well described for polar bears. Data from 38 opportunistic sperm collections, that were conducted between 2011 and 2021, were assessed to establish best practices to date for collecting and preserving polar bear sperm. The information gathered demonstrates that urethral catheterization is an efficient method of sperm collection, sperm can be rescued postmortem from the vasa deferentia and epididymides, and polar bear sperm collection appears to be most effective during the breeding season. Furthermore, polar bear sperm can survive cryopreservation. Further studies will optimize these techniques, but this summary provides information that is immediately applicable to enhancing sample collection and cryopreservation success that could support the long-term genetic management of polar bears in zoos.

Abstract

Assisted reproductive technologies can aid conservation efforts via support of ex situ population management and preservation of genetic material. Data from 38 sperm collection attempts from 17 polar bears (1–5 procedures/bear) were evaluated. Sample collections were attempted via electroejaculation (EEJ; n = 6), urethral catheterization (UC; n = 25), or sperm rescue (SR; n = 7) during the breeding season (Jan. 1-May 21; n = 27) and nonbreeding season (May 22-Dec. 31; n = 11). Sperm retrieval was successful in 1 EEJ (16.7%), 18 UC (72.0%) and 4 SR (57.1%) collections. Initial sperm motility and viability were 50.0% and 77.0% for EEJ, 64.3 ± 7.4% and 80.9 ± 3.8% for UC, and 56.7 ± 8.8% and 80.5 ± 0.5% for SR. UC and SR were more likely to be successful during the breeding season (84.2–100%) than the nonbreeding season (25.0–33.3%). Testicular tumors were observed in four males (57%) during SR. In total, 13 samples were cryopreserved (n = 1 EEJ, 9 UC, and 3 SR) with egg-yolk-based equine extender (EQ) or OptiXcell (OP). For both extenders, post-thaw motility and viability were reduced by 20–60% and 30–65%, respectively. Further efforts to optimize procedures are warranted, but this summary provides data useful for enhancing the success of polar bear sperm collection and cryopreservation.

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska's Beaufort Sea, 2001-2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark-recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Sea ice reduction drives genetic differentiation among Barents Sea polar bears

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is predicted to reduce both genetic diversity and gene flow in ice-dependent species, with potentially negative consequences for their long-term viability. Here, we tested for the population-genetic impacts of reduced sea ice cover on the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sampled across two decades (1995-2016) from the Svalbard Archipelago, Norway, an area that is affected by rapid sea ice loss in the Arctic Barents Sea. We analysed genetic variation at 22 microsatellite loci for 626 polar bears from four sampling areas within the archipelago. Our results revealed a 3-10% loss of genetic diversity across the study period, accompanied by a near 200% increase in genetic differentiation across regions. These effects may best be explained by a decrease in gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation owing to the loss of sea ice coverage, resulting in increased inbreeding of local polar bears within the focal sampling areas in the Svalbard Archipelago. This study illustrates the importance of genetic monitoring for developing adaptive management strategies for polar bears and other ice-dependent species.

Measuring adrenal and reproductive hormones in hair from Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) use sea ice to access marine mammal prey. In Alaska's Southern Beaufort Sea, the declining availability of sea ice habitat in summer and fall has reduced opportunities for polar bears to routinely hunt on the ice for seals, their primary prey. This reduced access to prey may result in physiological stress with subsequent potential consequences to reproductive function (physiological changes that accompany reproduction), which can be measured via reproductive hormones. Hormone concentrations in hair can be used as a minimally invasive alternative to serum concentrations, which must come from animal captures. Hair samples also provide a long-term average measurement of hormone concentrations that is not influenced by short-term fluctuations like that of serum. The aim of this study was (1) to determine if a radioimmunoassay could be used to measure adrenal and reproductive hormones in polar bear hair, and (2) to determine what the relationship is between these hormones and other reproductive, condition, and demographic parameters of polar bears. We successfully validated this method for cortisol, progesterone, estradiol, and testosterone through the analysis of hair and serum of 141 free-ranging polar bears. We found that while hair cannot be used to estimate serum hormone concentrations during the breeding season, hormone concentrations in hair can be used to measure reproductive function in polar bears. Further, our findings support trends in previous studies measuring hormone concentrations in serum. We found that adrenal and some reproductive hormones were positively correlated in hair samples of females. Associations between hormone concentrations in hair and serum did not vary relative to reproductive status of adult females. Serum testosterone increased throughout the breeding season for adult males and was significantly associated with body mass index (BMI). Our research supports the use of hair as a measure of reproductive function in polar bears and allows us to monitor the future effects of climate change on polar bear physiology.

Are tissue samples obtained via remote biopsy useful for fatty acid-based diet analyses in a free-ranging carnivore?

Fundamental knowledge on free-ranging animals has been obtained through capture-based studies; however, these may be logistically intensive, financially expensive, and potentially inconsistent with local cultural values. Genetic mark–recapture using remote tissue sampling has emerged as a less invasive alternative to capture-based population surveys but provides fewer opportunities to collect samples and measurements for broader ecological studies. We compared lipid content, fatty acid (FA) composition, and diet estimates from adipose tissue of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) obtained from two collection methods: remote biopsies (n = 138) sampled from helicopters and hunter-collected tissue (n = 499) from bears harvested in Davis Strait and Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut, 2010 – 2018. Lipid content of adipose tissue was lower in remote biopsies than harvest samples likely because remote biopsies removed only the outermost layer of subcutaneous tissue, rather than the more metabolically dynamic innermost tissue obtained from harvest samples. In contrast, FA composition was similar between the two collection methods with relatively small proportional differences in individual FAs. For diet estimates in Davis Strait, collection method was not a predictor of prey contribution to diet. In Gulf of Boothia, collection method was a predictor for some prey types, but the differences were relatively minor; the rank order of prey types was similar (e.g., ringed seal; Pusa hispida was consistently the primary prey in diets) and prey proportions differed by < 6% between the collection methods. Results from both methods showed that diets varied by geographic area, season, year, age class, and sex. Our study demonstrates that adipose tissue from remote biopsy provides reliable estimates of polar bear diet based on FA analysis and can be used to monitor underlying ecological changes in Arctic marine food webs.

Seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns influence polar bear body condition, recruitment, and feeding ecology in the Chukchi Sea

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are experiencing loss of sea ice habitats used to access their marine mammal prey. Simultaneously, ocean warming is changing ecosystems that support marine mammal populations. The interactive effects of sea ice and prey are not well understood yet may explain spatial-temporal variation in the response of polar bears to sea ice loss. Here, we examined the potential combined effects of sea ice, seal body condition, and atmospheric circulation patterns on the body condition, recruitment, diet, and feeding probability of 469 polar bears captured in the Chukchi Sea, 2008-2017. The body condition of ringed seals (Pusa hispida), the primary prey of females and subadults, was related to dietary proportions of ringed seal, feeding probability, and the body condition of females and cubs. In contrast, adult males consumed more bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) and exhibited better condition when bearded seal body condition was higher. The litter size, number of yearlings per adult female, and the condition of dependent young were higher following winters characterized by low Arctic Oscillation conditions, consistent with a growing number of studies. Body condition, recruitment, and feeding probability were either not associated or negatively associated with sea ice conditions, suggesting that, unlike some subpopulations, Chukchi Sea bears are not currently limited by sea ice availability. However, spring sea ice cover declined 2% per year during our study reaching levels not previously observed in the satellite record and resulting in the loss of polar bear hunting and seal pupping habitat. Our study suggests that the status of ice seal populations is likely an important factor that can either compound or mitigate the response of polar bears to sea ice loss over the short term. In the long term, neither polar bears nor their prey are likely robust to limitless loss of their sea ice habitat.

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator

Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 d on land (90 d in total) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea ice breakup and fall sea ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships, we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 yr). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.

Fatty acid-based diet estimates suggest ringed seal remain the main prey of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears despite recent use of onshore food resources

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation have traditionally fed predominantly upon ice-seals; however, as the proportion of the subpopulation using onshore habitat has recently increased, foraging on land-based resources, including remains of subsistence-harvested bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) and colonial nesting seabirds has been observed. Adipose tissue samples were collected from this subpopulation during the springs of 2013-2016 and analyzed for fatty acid signatures. Diet estimates were generated for the proportional consumption of ringed seal (Pusa hispida), bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus), and beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas), relative to onshore foods, including bowhead whale remains and seabird, as represented by black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii) nestlings and eggs. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) estimated that the ice-obligate prey, ringed seal, remained the predominant prey species of SB polar bears (46.4 ± 1.8%), with much lower consumption of bearded seal (19.6 ± 2.0%), seabird (17.0 ± 1.2%), bowhead whale (15.0 ± 1.4%), and hardly any beluga whale (2.0 ± 0.5%). Adult and subadult females appeared to depend more on the traditional ringed seal prey than adult and subadult males. Diet estimates of SB polar bears showed significant interannual variability for all prey (F 12, 456 = 3.17, p < .001). Longer-term estimates suggested that both types of onshore prey, bowhead whale remains and seabird, have represented a moderate proportion of the food resources used by SB polar bears since at least the start of the 21st Century.

Modeling optimal responses and fitness consequences in a changing Arctic

Animals must balance a series of costs and benefits while trying to maximize their fitness. For example, an individual may need to choose how much energy to allocate to reproduction versus growth, or how much time to spend on vigilance versus foraging. Their decisions depend on complex interactions between environmental conditions, behavioral plasticity, reproductive biology, and energetic demands. As animals respond to novel environmental conditions caused by climate change, the optimal decisions may shift. Stochastic dynamic programming provides a flexible modeling framework with which to explore these trade-offs, but this method has not yet been used to study possible changes in optimal trade-offs caused by climate change. We created a stochastic dynamic programming model capturing trade-off decisions required by an individual adult female polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as well as the fitness consequences of her decisions. We predicted optimal foraging decisions throughout her lifetime as well as the energetic thresholds below which it is optimal for her to abandon a reproductive attempt. To explore the effects of climate change, we shortened the spring feeding period by up to 3 weeks, which led to predictions of riskier foraging behavior and higher reproductive thresholds. The resulting changes in fitness may be interpreted as a best-case scenario, where bears adapt instantaneously and optimally to new environmental conditions. If the spring feeding period was reduced by 1 week, her expected fitness declined by 15%, and if reduced by 3 weeks, expected fitness declined by 68%. This demonstrates an effective way to explore a species' optimal response to a changing landscape of costs and benefits and highlights the fact that small annual effects can result in large cumulative changes in expected lifetime fitness.

Global change-driven use of onshore habitat impacts polar bear faecal microbiota

The gut microbiota plays a critical role in host health, yet remains poorly studied in wild species. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), key indicators of Arctic ecosystem health and environmental change, are currently affected by rapid shifts in habitat that may alter gut homeostasis. Declining sea ice has led to a divide in the southern Beaufort Sea polar bear subpopulation such that an increasing proportion of individuals now inhabit onshore coastal regions during the open-water period ('onshore bears') while others continue to exhibit their typical behaviour of remaining on the ice ('offshore bears'). We propose that bears that have altered their habitat selection in response to climate change will exhibit a distinct gut microbiota diversity and composition, which may ultimately have important consequences for their health. Here, we perform the first assessment of abundance and diversity in the faecal microbiota of wild polar bears using 16S rRNA Illumina technology. We find that bacterial diversity is significantly higher in onshore bears compared to offshore bears. The most enriched OTU abundance in onshore bears belonged to the phylum Proteobacteria, while the most depleted OTU abundance within onshore bears was seen in the phylum Firmicutes. We conclude that climate-driven changes in polar bear land use are associated with distinct microbial communities. In doing so, we present the first case of global change mediated alterations in the gut microbiota of a free-roaming wild animal.

State of knowledge on current exposure, fate and potential health effects of contaminants in polar bears from the circumpolar Arctic

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is among the Arctic species exposed to the highest concentrations of long-range transported bioaccumulative contaminants, such as halogenated organic compounds and mercury. Contaminant exposure is considered to be one of the largest threats to polar bears after the loss of their Arctic sea ice habitat due to climate change. The aim of this review is to provide a comprehensive summary of current exposure, fate, and potential health effects of contaminants in polar bears from the circumpolar Arctic required by the Circumpolar Action Plan for polar bear conservation. Overall results suggest that legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) including polychlorinated biphenyls, chlordanes and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), followed by other perfluoroalkyl compounds (e.g. carboxylic acids, PFCAs) and brominated flame retardants, are still the main compounds in polar bears. Concentrations of several legacy POPs that have been banned for decades in most parts of the world have generally declined in polar bears. Current spatial trends of contaminants vary widely between compounds and recent studies suggest increased concentrations of both POPs and PFCAs in certain subpopulations. Correlative field studies, supported by in vitro studies, suggest that contaminant exposure disrupts circulating levels of thyroid hormones and lipid metabolism, and alters neurochemistry in polar bears. Additionally, field and in vitro studies and risk assessments indicate the potential for adverse impacts to polar bear immune functions from exposure to certain contaminants.

Non-linear effect of sea ice: Spectacled Eider survival declines at both extremes of the ice spectrum

Understanding the relationship between environmental factors and vital rates is an important step in predicting a species' response to environmental change. Species associated with sea ice are of particular concern because sea ice is projected to decrease rapidly in polar environments with continued levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The relationship between sea ice and the vital rates of the Spectacled Eider, a threatened species that breeds in Alaska and Russia and winters in the Bering Sea, appears to be complex. While severe ice can impede foraging for benthic prey, ice also suppresses wave action and provides a platform on which eiders roost, thereby reducing thermoregulation costs. We analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset for Spectacled Eiders nesting on Kigigak Island in western Alaska, and tested survival models containing different ice and weather-related covariates. We found that much of the variation in eider survival could be explained by the number of days per year with >95% sea ice concentration at the Bering Sea core wintering area. Furthermore, the data supported a quadratic relationship with sea ice rather than a linear one, indicating that intermediate sea ice concentrations were optimal for survival. We then used matrix population models to project population trajectories using General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs of daily sea ice cover. GCMs projected reduced sea ice at the wintering area by year 2100 under a moderated emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) and nearly ice-free conditions under an unabated emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Under RCP 4.5, stochastic models projected an increase in population size until 2069 coincident with moderate ice conditions, followed by a decline in population size as ice conditions shifted from intermediate to mostly ice-free. Under RCP 8.5, eider abundance increased until 2040 and then decreased to near extirpation toward the end of the century as the Bering Sea became ice-free. Considerable uncertainty around parameter estimates for survival in years with minimal sea ice contributed to variation in stochastic projections of future population size, and this uncertainty could be reduced with additional survival data from low-ice winters.

Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea

Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, and count data for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 2008-2016. Our model addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies for polar bears by including a multievent structure reflecting location and life history states, while accommodating state uncertainty. Female breeding probability was 0.83 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.71-0.90), with litter sizes of 2.18 (95% CRI = 1.71-2.82) for age-zero and 1.61 (95% CRI = 1.46-1.80) for age-one cubs. Total adult survival was 0.90 (95% CRI = 0.86-0.92) for females and 0.89 (95% CRI = 0.83-0.93) for males. Spring on-ice densities west of Alaska were 0.0030 bears/km2 (95% CRI = 0.0016-0.0060), similar to 1980s-era density estimates although methodological differences complicate comparison. Abundance of the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, derived by extrapolating density from the study area using a spatially-explicit habitat metric, was 2,937 bears (95% CRI = 1,552-5,944). Our findings are consistent with other lines of evidence suggesting the Chukchi Sea subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will continue given sea-ice loss due to climate change.

Development of on-shore behavior among polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea: inherited or learned?

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are experiencing rapid and substantial changes to their environment due to global climate change. Polar bears of the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) have historically spent most of the year on the sea ice. However, recent reports from Alaska indicate that the proportion of the SB subpopulation observed on-shore during late summer and early fall has increased. Our objective was to investigate whether this on-shore behavior has developed through genetic inheritance, asocial learning, or through social learning. From 2010 to 2013, genetic data were collected from SB polar bears in the fall via hair snags and remote biopsy darting on-shore and in the spring from captures and remote biopsy darting on the sea ice. Bears were categorized as either on-shore or off-shore individuals based on their presence on-shore during the fall. Levels of genetic relatedness, first-order relatives, mother-offspring pairs, and father-offspring pairs were determined and compared within and between the two categories: on-shore versus off-shore. Results suggested transmission of on-shore behavior through either genetic inheritance or social learning as there was a higher than expected number of first-order relatives exhibiting on-shore behavior. Genetic relatedness and parentage data analyses were in concurrence with this finding, but further revealed mother-offspring social learning as the primary mechanism responsible for the development of on-shore behavior. Recognizing that on-shore behavior among polar bears was predominantly transmitted via social learning from mothers to their offspring has implications for future management and conservation as sea ice continues to decline.

Increased Arctic sea ice drift alters adult female polar bear movements and energetics

Recent reductions in thickness and extent have increased drift rates of Arctic sea ice. Increased ice drift could significantly affect the movements and the energy balance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) which forage, nearly exclusively, on this substrate. We used radio-tracking and ice drift data to quantify the influence of increased drift on bear movements, and we modeled the consequences for energy demands of adult females in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas during two periods with different sea ice characteristics. Westward and northward drift of the sea ice used by polar bears in both regions increased between 1987-1998 and 1999-2013. To remain within their home ranges, polar bears responded to the higher westward ice drift with greater eastward movements, while their movements north in the spring and south in fall were frequently aided by ice motion. To compensate for more rapid westward ice drift in recent years, polar bears covered greater daily distances either by increasing their time spent active (7.6%-9.6%) or by increasing their travel speed (8.5%-8.9%). This increased their calculated annual energy expenditure by 1.8%-3.6% (depending on region and reproductive status), a cost that could be met by capturing an additional 1-3 seals/year. Polar bears selected similar habitats in both periods, indicating that faster drift did not alter habitat preferences. Compounding reduced foraging opportunities that result from habitat loss; changes in ice drift, and associated activity increases, likely exacerbate the physiological stress experienced by polar bears in a warming Arctic.

Polar bears experience skeletal muscle atrophy in response to food deprivation and reduced activity in winter and summer

When reducing activity and using stored energy during seasonal food shortages, animals risk degradation of skeletal muscles, although some species avoid or minimize the resulting atrophy while experiencing these conditions during hibernation. Polar bears may be food deprived and relatively inactive during winter (when pregnant females hibernate and hunting success declines for other demographic groups) as well as summer (when sea ice retreats from key foraging habitats). We investigated muscle atrophy in samples of biceps femoris collected from free-ranging polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) throughout their annual cycle. Atrophy was most pronounced in April-May as a result of food deprivation during the previous winter, with muscles exhibiting reduced protein concentration, increased water content, and lower creatine kinase mRNA. These animals increased feeding and activity in spring (when seal prey becomes more available), initiating a period of muscle recovery. During the following ice melt of late summer, ~30% of SBS bears abandon retreating sea ice for land; in August, these 'shore' bears exhibited no muscle atrophy, indicating that they had fully recovered from winter food deprivation. These individuals subsequently scavenged whale carcasses deposited by humans and by October, had retained good muscle condition. In contrast, ~70% of SBS bears follow the ice north in late summer, into deep water with less prey. These 'ice' bears fast; by October, they exhibited muscle protein loss and rapid changes in myosin heavy-chain isoforms in response to reduced activity. These findings indicate that, unlike other bears during winter hibernation, polar bears without food in summer cannot mitigate atrophy. Consequently, prolonged summer fasting resulting from climate change-induced ice loss creates a risk of greater muscle atrophy and reduced abilities to travel and hunt.

Exposure to Persistent Organic Pollutants Reduces Testosterone Concentrations and Affects Sperm Viability and Morphology during the Mating Peak Period in a Controlled Experiment on Farmed Arctic Foxes (Vulpes lagopus)

We investigated testosterone production and semen parameters in farmed Arctic foxes by dietary exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) for 22 months. Eight male foxes were given a diet of POP-contaminated minke whale blubber, whereas their eight male siblings were fed a control diet containing pig fat as the main fat source. The minke whale-based feed contained a ∑POPs concentration of 802 ng/g ww, whereas the pig-based feed contained ∑POPs of 24 ng/g ww. At the end of the experiment, ∑POP concentrations in adipose tissue were 8856 ± 2535 ng/g ww in the exposed foxes and 1264 ± 539 ng/g ww in the control foxes. The exposed group had 45-64% significantly lower testosterone concentrations during their peak mating season compared to the controls (p ≤ 0.05), while the number of dead and defect sperm cells was 27% (p = 0.07) and 15% (p = 0.33) higher in the exposed group. Similar effects during the mating season in wild Arctic foxes may affect mating behavior and reproductive success. On the basis of these results, we recommend testosterone as a sensitive biomarker of POP exposure and that seasonal patterns are investigated when interpreting putative endocrine disruption in Arctic wildlife with potential population-level effects.

Harvesting wildlife affected by climate change: a modelling and management approach for polar bears

The conservation of many wildlife species requires understanding the demographic effects of climate change, including interactions between climate change and harvest, which can provide cultural, nutritional or economic value to humans.We present a demographic model that is based on the polar bear Ursus maritimus life cycle and includes density-dependent relationships linking vital rates to environmental carrying capacity (K). Using this model, we develop a state-dependent management framework to calculate a harvest level that (i) maintains a population above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL; the population size that produces the greatest net increment in abundance) relative to a changing K, and (ii) has a limited negative effect on population persistence.Our density-dependent relationships suggest that MNPL for polar bears occurs at approximately 0·69 (95% CI = 0·63-0·74) of K. Population growth rate at MNPL was approximately 0·82 (95% CI = 0·79-0·84) of the maximum intrinsic growth rate, suggesting relatively strong compensation for human-caused mortality.Our findings indicate that it is possible to minimize the demographic risks of harvest under climate change, including the risk that harvest will accelerate population declines driven by loss of the polar bear's sea-ice habitat. This requires that (i) the harvest rate - which could be 0 in some situations - accounts for a population's intrinsic growth rate, (ii) the harvest rate accounts for the quality of population data (e.g. lower harvest when uncertainty is large), and (iii) the harvest level is obtained by multiplying the harvest rate by an updated estimate of population size. Environmental variability, the sex and age of removed animals and risk tolerance can also affect the harvest rate. Synthesis and applications. We present a coupled modelling and management approach for wildlife that accounts for climate change and can be used to balance trade-offs among multiple conservation goals. In our example application to polar bears experiencing sea-ice loss, the goals are to maintain population viability while providing continued opportunities for subsistence harvest. Our approach may be relevant to other species for which near-term management is focused on human factors that directly influence population dynamics within the broader context of climate-induced habitat degradation.

Habitat degradation affects the summer activity of polar bears

Understanding behavioral responses of species to environmental change is critical to forecasting population-level effects. Although climate change is significantly impacting species' distributions, few studies have examined associated changes in behavior. Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations have varied in their near-term responses to sea ice decline. We examined behavioral responses of two adjacent subpopulations to changes in habitat availability during the annual sea ice minimum using activity data. Location and activity sensor data collected from 1989 to 2014 for 202 adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) subpopulations were used to compare activity in three habitat types varying in prey availability: (1) land; (2) ice over shallow, biologically productive waters; and (3) ice over deeper, less productive waters. Bears varied activity across and within habitats with the highest activity at 50-75% sea ice concentration over shallow waters. On land, SB bears exhibited variable but relatively high activity associated with the use of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale carcasses, whereas CS bears exhibited low activity consistent with minimal feeding. Both subpopulations had fewer observations in their preferred shallow-water sea ice habitats in recent years, corresponding with declines in availability of this substrate. The substantially higher use of marginal habitats by SB bears is an additional mechanism potentially explaining why this subpopulation has experienced negative effects of sea ice loss compared to the still-productive CS subpopulation. Variability in activity among, and within, habitats suggests that bears alter their behavior in response to habitat conditions, presumably in an attempt to balance prey availability with energy costs.

Habitat selection by two beluga whale populations in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas

There has been extensive sea ice loss in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas where two beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas) populations occur between July-November. Our goal was to develop population-specific beluga habitat selection models that quantify relative use of sea ice and bathymetric features related to oceanographic processes, which can provide context to the importance of changing sea ice conditions. We established habitat selection models that incorporated daily sea ice measures (sea ice concentration, proximity to ice edge and dense ice) and bathymetric features (slope, depth, proximity to the continental slope, Barrow Canyon, and shore) to establish quantitative estimates of habitat use for the Eastern Chukchi Sea ('Chukchi') and Eastern Beaufort Sea ('Beaufort') populations. We applied 'used v. available' resource selection functions to locations of 65 whales tagged from 1993-2012, revealing large variations in seasonal habitat selection that were distinct between sex and population groups. Chukchi whales of both sexes were predicted to use areas in close proximity to Barrow Canyon (typically <200 km) as well as the continental slope in summer, although deeper water and denser ice were stronger predictors for males than females. Habitat selection differed more between sexes for Beaufort belugas. Beaufort males selected higher ice concentrations (≥40%) than females (0-40%) in July-August. Proximity to shore (<200 km) strongly predicted summer habitat of Beaufort females, while distance to the ice edge was important for male habitat selection, especially during westward migration in September. Overall, our results indicate that sea ice variables were rarely the primary drivers of beluga summer-fall habitat selection. While diminished sea ice may indirectly affect belugas through changes in the ecosystem, associations with bathymetric features that affect prey availability seemed key to habitat selection during summer and fall. These results provide a benchmark by which to assess future changes in beluga habitat use of the Pacific Arctic.

Sea ice-associated decline in body condition leads to increased concentrations of lipophilic pollutants in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Svalbard, Norway

Global climate changes are magnified in the Arctic and are having an especially dramatic effect on the spatial and temporal distribution and the thickness traits of sea ice. Decline of Arctic sea ice may lead to qualitative and/or quantitative changes in diet and reduced body condition (i.e. adipose tissue stores) of ice-associated apex predators such as polar bears (Ursus maritimus). This may further affect their tissue concentrations of lipophilic pollutants. We determined how variations in adipose tissue stores associated to both breeding status and spatial changes in sea ice conditions and diet influence concentrations and biotransformation of lipophilic persistent organic pollutants (POPs). We collected 112 blood and fat samples from female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of different breeding status (alone, with cubs of the year, or with yearlings) during two seasons (April and September) in 2012 and 2013 at three locations of Svalbard, Norway, with contrasted sea ice conditions. We inferred diet from nitrogen and carbon stable isotope ratios in red blood cells and fatty acid composition in adipose tissue. Relative to diet, body condition, which was negatively related to sea ice extent at both temporal and spatial scales, was the most important predictor for concentrations of POPs in plasma and fat, whereas diet showed a minor influence. Additionally, fatter females were more efficient at biotransforming PCBs than were leaner ones. Breeding status influenced the concentrations of less lipophilic compounds such as β-hexachlorocyclohexane, which were lower in females with yearlings, probably due to excretion into milk and subsequent offloading to young. In conclusion, our results indicate that declining sea ice indirectly leads to increased concentrations of lipophilic pollutants in polar bears mediated through reduced feeding opportunities and declining body condition rather than changes in diet composition.

Circumpolar contaminant concentrations in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and potential population-level effects

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) currently receive much attention in the context of global climate change. However, there are other stressors that might threaten the viability of polar bear populations as well, such as exposure to anthropogenic pollutants. Lipophilic organic compounds bio-accumulate and bio-magnify in the food chain, leading to high concentrations at the level of top-predators. In Arctic wildlife, including the polar bear, various adverse health effects have been related to internal concentrations of commercially used anthropogenic chemicals like PCB and DDT. The extent to which these individual health effects are associated to population-level effects is, however, unknown. In this study we assembled data on adipose tissue concentrations of ∑PCB, ∑DDT, dieldrin and ∑PBDE in individual polar bears from peer-reviewed scientific literature. Data were available for 14 out of the 19 subpopulations. We found that internal concentrations of these contaminants exceed threshold values for adverse individual health effects in several subpopulations. In an exploratory regression analysis we identified a clear negative correlation between polar bear population density and sub-population specific contaminant concentrations in adipose tissue. The results suggest that adverse health effects of contaminants in individual polar bears may scale up to population-level consequences. Our study highlights the need to consider contaminant exposure along with other threats in polar bear population viability analyses.

Habitat-mediated timing of migration in polar bears: an individual perspective

Migration phenology is largely determined by how animals respond to seasonal changes in environmental conditions. Our perception of the relationship between migratory behavior and environmental cues can vary depending on the spatial scale at which these interactions are measured. Understanding the behavioral mechanisms behind population‐scale movements requires knowledge of how individuals respond to local cues. We show how time‐to‐event models can be used to predict what factors are associated with the timing of an individual's migratory behavior using data from GPS collared polar bears (Ursus maritimus) that move seasonally between sea ice and terrestrial habitats. We found the concentration of sea ice that bears experience at a local level, along with the duration of exposure to these conditions, was most associated with individual migration timing. Our results corroborate studies that assume thresholds of >50% sea ice concentration are necessary for suitable polar bear habitat; however, continued periods (e.g., days to weeks) of exposure to suboptimal ice concentrations during seasonal melting were required before the proportion of bears migrating to land increased substantially. Time‐to‐event models are advantageous for examining individual movement patterns because they account for the idea that animals make decisions based on an accumulation of knowledge from the landscapes they move through and not simply the environment they are exposed to at the time of a decision. Understanding the migration behavior of polar bears moving between terrestrial and marine habitat, at multiple spatiotemporal scales, will be a major aspect of quantifying observed and potential demographic responses to climate‐induced environmental changes.

Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay

Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993-1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653-984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001-2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98-1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00-1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92-1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations.