It’s about time: the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection in the wild

Selective effect of winter weather on a songbird's morphology depends on individual sex and winter condition

Knowledge of the effect of harsh weather on the phenotypic traits of organisms is essential for understanding the environmental influence on phenotype evolution and holds implications for predicting how species respond to current climate change. For many birds, harsh weather in winter often imposes a strong selective effect on their survival, and only the individuals with certain phenotypes may survive. However, whether the selective effect on phenotype varies with winter weather conditions has been poorly investigated. Here, we explored the selective effect of winter weather on black-throated tit's (Aegithalos concinnus) morphological traits under winters with and without severe snowstorms. We found that for males, the sizes of their bills, heads and wings significantly affected their overwinter survival, but the effects varied with winter conditions. In relatively benign winters, males with smaller bill depths, smaller bill surface areas, and greater head lengths survived better; whereas, in winters with severe snowstorms, a reverse pattern was found. This phenomenon was likely driven by selection pressures from heat retention and foraging requirements, with their relative importance depending on winter conditions. Additionally, wing length was positively correlated with male survival and the relationship was stronger in harsher winters, which was probably due to longer wings' higher flight efficiency in adverse weather. By contrast, we found no correlation between morphological traits and survival in females. These results suggest a sex-specific and condition-dependent selective effect of environment on bird phenotypes, implying complicated interactions between different selection pressures and phenotype evolution.

A theory of measuring natural selection and genetic monitoring

Two methods have been compared for determining the value of natural selection in the natural populations. The first method, based on the FST-statistics, employs the dependence of genetic diversity of a species on the value of gene flow between subpopulations of the species, derived from the assumption that all the mutations are close to selective neutrality, and subpopulations effect each other equally. Susceptibility to selection is estimated by the degree of deviation from this relationship between genetic diversity and gene flow in certain species. The second method is based on the probability theory and involves comparison between stabilities of the forms, competing in the population, which is computed using the data about fluctuations in their occurrence in several generations. As applied to the problems of genetic monitoring of rare and valuable species, the first method can be employed for express-assessment of susceptibility of a species to rapid intraspecific changes. The second method is suitable for a long-term and in-depth genetic monitoring of the species subjected to extremely intense natural selection of a disruptive or stabilizing form, which were revealed using the first method. There is a lack of long-term observations of intraspecific genetic variation of rare and protected species. The need for funds that finance long-term genetic research is substantiated.

The predictive power of genetic variation

New analyses show that trait variability links evolution across vastly different timescales.

Variation and plasticity in life-history traits and fitness of wild Arabidopsis thaliana populations are not related to their genotypic and ecological diversity

BACKGROUND

Despite its implications for population dynamics and evolution, the relationship between genetic and phenotypic variation in wild populations remains unclear. Here, we estimated variation and plasticity in life-history traits and fitness of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana in two common garden experiments that differed in environmental conditions. We used up to 306 maternal inbred lines from six Iberian populations characterized by low and high genotypic (based on whole-genome sequences) and ecological (vegetation type) diversity.

RESULTS

Low and high genotypic and ecological diversity was found in edge and core Iberian environments, respectively. Given that selection is expected to be stronger in edge environments and that ecological diversity may enhance both phenotypic variation and plasticity, we expected genotypic diversity to be positively associated with phenotypic variation and plasticity. However, maternal lines, irrespective of the genotypic and ecological diversity of their population of origin, exhibited a substantial amount of phenotypic variation and plasticity for all traits. Furthermore, all populations harbored maternal lines with canalization (robustness) or sensitivity in response to harsher environmental conditions in one of the two experiments.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, we conclude that the environmental attributes of each population probably determine their genotypic diversity, but all populations maintain substantial phenotypic variation and plasticity for all traits, which represents an asset to endure in changing environments.

Unifying approaches from statistical genetics and phylogenetics for mapping phenotypes in structured populations

In both statistical genetics and phylogenetics, a major goal is to identify correlations between genetic loci or other aspects of the phenotype or environment and a focal trait. In these two fields, there are sophisticated but disparate statistical traditions aimed at these tasks. The disconnect between their respective approaches is becoming untenable as questions in medicine, conservation biology, and evolutionary biology increasingly rely on integrating data from within and among species, and once-clear conceptual divisions are becoming increasingly blurred. To help bridge this divide, we derive a general model describing the covariance between the genetic contributions to the quantitative phenotypes of different individuals. Taking this approach shows that standard models in both statistical genetics (e.g., Genome-Wide Association Studies; GWAS) and phylogenetic comparative biology (e.g., phylogenetic regression) can be interpreted as special cases of this more general quantitative-genetic model. The fact that these models share the same core architecture means that we can build a unified understanding of the strengths and limitations of different methods for controlling for genetic structure when testing for associations. We develop intuition for why and when spurious correlations may occur using analytical theory and conduct population-genetic and phylogenetic simulations of quantitative traits. The structural similarity of problems in statistical genetics and phylogenetics enables us to take methodological advances from one field and apply them in the other. We demonstrate this by showing how a standard GWAS technique-including both the genetic relatedness matrix (GRM) as well as its leading eigenvectors, corresponding to the principal components of the genotype matrix, in a regression model-can mitigate spurious correlations in phylogenetic analyses. As a case study of this, we re-examine an analysis testing for co-evolution of expression levels between genes across a fungal phylogeny, and show that including covariance matrix eigenvectors as covariates decreases the false positive rate while simultaneously increasing the true positive rate. More generally, this work provides a foundation for more integrative approaches for understanding the genetic architecture of phenotypes and how evolutionary processes shape it.

Fluctuating selection maintains distinct species phenotypes in an ecological community in the wild

Species' phenotypic characteristics often remain unchanged over long stretches of geological time. Stabilizing selection-in which fitness is highest for intermediate phenotypes and lowest for the extremes-has been widely invoked as responsible for this pattern. At the community level, such stabilizing selection acting individually on co-occurring species is expected to produce a rugged fitness landscape on which different species occupy distinct fitness peaks. However, even with an explosion of microevolutionary field studies over the past four decades, evidence for persistent stabilizing selection driving long-term stasis is lacking. Nonetheless, biologists continue to invoke stabilizing selection as a major factor explaining macroevolutionary patterns. Here, by directly measuring natural selection in the wild, we identified a complex community-wide fitness surface in which four Anolis lizard species each occupy a distinct fitness peak close to their mean phenotype. The presence of local fitness optima within species, and fitness valleys between species, presents a barrier to adaptive evolutionary change and acts to maintain species differences through time. However, instead of continuously operating stabilizing selection, we found that species were maintained on these peaks by the combination of many independent periods among which selection fluctuated in form, strength, direction, or existence and in which stabilizing selection rarely occurred. Our results suggest that lack of substantial phenotypic evolutionary change through time may be the result of selection, but not persistent stabilizing selection as classically envisioned.

Temporal Variation in Selection Influences Microgeographic Local Adaptation

AbstractEcological heterogeneity can lead to local adaptation when populations exhibit fitness trade-offs among habitats. However, the degree to which local adaptation is affected by the spatial and temporal scale of environmental variation is poorly understood. A multiyear reciprocal transplant experiment was performed with populations of the annual plant Leptosiphon parviflorus living on adjacent serpentine and nonserpentine soil. Local adaptation over this small geographic scale was observed, but there were differences in the temporal variability of selection across habitats. On serpentine soil, the local population had a consistently large survival advantage, presumably as a result of the temporal stability in selection imposed by soil cation content. In contrast, a fecundity advantage was observed for the sandstone population on its native soil type but only in the two study years with the highest rainfall. A manipulative greenhouse experiment demonstrated that the fitness advantage of the sandstone population in its native soil type depends critically on water availability. The temporal variability in local adaptation driven by variation in precipitation suggests that continued drought conditions have the potential to erode local adaptation in these populations. These results show how different selective factors can influence spatial and temporal patterns of variation in fitness trade-offs.

Contemporary changes in phenotypic variation, and the potential consequences for eco-evolutionary dynamics

Most studies assessing rates of phenotypic change focus on population mean trait values, whereas a largely overlooked additional component is changes in population trait variation. Theoretically, eco-evolutionary dynamics mediated by such changes in trait variation could be as important as those mediated by changes in trait means. To date, however, no study has comprehensively summarised how phenotypic variation is changing in contemporary populations. Here, we explore four questions using a large database: How do changes in trait variances compare to changes in trait means? Do different human disturbances have different effects on trait variance? Do different trait types have different effects on changes in trait variance? Do studies that established a genetic basis for trait change show different patterns from those that did not? We find that changes in variation are typically small; yet we also see some very large changes associated with particular disturbances or trait types. We close by interpreting and discussing the implications of our findings in the context of eco-evolutionary studies.

Selection on weapon allometry in the wild

Allometry is the scaling relationship between a trait and body size. This relationship can often explain considerable morphological variation within and among species. Nevertheless, much remains unknown about the factors that underlie allometric patterns. For example, when different allometric relationships are observed amongst closely related species, these differences are regularly considered to be products of selection. However, directional selection on allometry (particularly the slope) has rarely been tested and observed in natural populations. Here, we investigate selection on the scaling relationship between weapon size and body size (i.e., weapon allometry) in a wild population of giant mesquite bugs, Pachylis neocalifornicus (previously Thasus neocalifornicus). Males in this species use their weapons (enlarged femurs) to compete with one another over access to resources and females. We found that large males with relatively large weapons successfully secured access to mates. However, we also found that small males with relatively small weapons could access mates as well. These two patterns together can increase the allometric slope of the sexually selected weapon, suggesting a straightforward process by which the allometric slope can evolve.

A stabilizing eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the wild

There is increasing evidence that evolutionary and ecological processes can operate on the same timescale1,2 (i.e., contemporary time). As such, evolution can be sufficiently rapid to affect ecological processes such as predation or competition. Thus, evolution can influence population, community, and ecosystem-level dynamics. Indeed, studies have now shown that evolutionary dynamics can alter community structure3,4,5,6 and ecosystem function.7,8,9,10 In turn, shifts in ecological dynamics driven by evolution might feed back to affect the evolutionary trajectory of individual species.11 This feedback loop, where evolutionary and ecological changes reciprocally affect one another, is a central tenet of eco-evolutionary dynamics.1,12 However, most work on such dynamics in natural populations has focused on one-way causal associations between ecology and evolution.13 Hence, direct empirical evidence for eco-evolutionary feedback is rare and limited to laboratory or mesocosm experiments.13,14,15,16 Here, we show in the wild that eco-evolutionary dynamics in a plant-feeding arthropod community involve a negative feedback loop. Specifically, adaptation in cryptic coloration in a stick-insect species mediates bird predation, with local maladaptation increasing predation. In turn, the abundance of arthropods is reduced by predation. Here, we experimentally manipulate arthropod abundance to show that these changes at the community level feed back to affect the stick-insect evolution. Specifically, low-arthropod abundance increases the strength of selection on crypsis, increasing local adaptation of stick insects in a negative feedback loop. Our results suggest that eco-evolutionary feedbacks are able to stabilize complex systems by preventing consistent directional change and therefore increasing resilience.

Seasonal specialization drives divergent population dynamics in two closely related butterflies

Seasons impose different selection pressures on organisms through contrasting environmental conditions. How such seasonal evolutionary conflict is resolved in organisms whose lives span across seasons remains underexplored. Through field experiments, laboratory work, and citizen science data analyses, we investigate this question using two closely related butterflies (Pieris rapae and P. napi). Superficially, the two butterflies appear highly ecologically similar. Yet, the citizen science data reveal that their fitness is partitioned differently across seasons. Pieris rapae have higher population growth during the summer season but lower overwintering success than do P. napi. We show that these differences correspond to the physiology and behavior of the butterflies. Pieris rapae outperform P. napi at high temperatures in several growth season traits, reflected in microclimate choice by ovipositing wild females. Instead, P. rapae have higher winter mortality than do P. napi. We conclude that the difference in population dynamics between the two butterflies is driven by seasonal specialization, manifested as strategies that maximize gains during growth seasons and minimize harm during adverse seasons, respectively.

Herbivory selects for tolerance and constitutive defence across stages of community succession

Plants defend themselves from herbivory by either reducing damage (resistance) or minimizing its negative fitness effects with compensatory growth (tolerance). Herbivore pressure can fluctuate from year to year in an early secondary successional community, which can create temporal variation in selection for defence traits. We manipulated insect herbivory and successional age of the community as agents of natural selection in replicated common gardens with the perennial herb Solidago altissima. In these genotypic selection experiments, herbivory consistently selected for better defended plants in both successional communities. Herbivore suppression increased plant survival and the probability of flowering only in mid-succession. Despite these substantial differences in the effects of herbivory between early and mid-succession, the selection on defence traits did not change. Succession affected selection only on aboveground biomass, with positive selection in early but not mid-succession, suggesting an important role of competition in the selective environment. These results demonstrate that changes in the community that affect key life-history traits in an individual species can occur over very short timescales in a dynamic secondary successional environment. The resulting community context-driven variation in natural selection may be an important, yet overlooked, contributor to adaptive mosaics across populations.

Spatially and temporally varying selection influence species boundaries in two sympatric Mimulus

Spatially and temporally varying selection can maintain genetic variation within and between populations, but it is less well known how these forces influence divergence between closely related species. We identify the interaction of temporal and spatial variation in selection and their role in either reinforcing or eroding divergence between two closely related Mimulus species. Using repeated reciprocal transplant experiments with advanced generation hybrids, we compare the strength of selection on quantitative traits involved in adaptation and reproductive isolation in Mimulus guttatus and Mimulus laciniatus between two years with dramatically different water availability. We found strong divergent habitat-mediated selection on traits in the direction of species differences during a drought in 2013, suggesting that spatially varying selection maintains species divergence. However, a relaxation in divergent selection on most traits in an unusually wet year (2019), including flowering time, which is involved in pre-zygotic isolation, suggests that temporal variation in selection may weaken species differences. Therefore, we find evidence that temporally and spatially varying selection may have opposing roles in mediating species boundaries. Given our changing climate, future growing seasons are expected to be more similar to the dry year, suggesting that in this system climate change may actually increase species divergence.

The evolution of personality disorders: A review of proposals

Personality disorders (PDs) are currently considered dysfunctions. However, personality differences are older than humanity and are ubiquitous in nature, from insects to higher primates. This suggests that a number of evolutionary mechanisms-other than dysfunctions-may be able to maintain stable behavioral variation in the gene pool. First of all, apparently maladaptive traits may actually improve fitness by enabling better survival or successful mating or reproduction, as exemplified by neuroticism, psychopathy, and narcissism. Furthermore, some PDs may harm important biological goals while facilitating others, or may be globally beneficial or detrimental depending on environmental circumstances or body condition. Alternatively, certain traits may form part of life history strategies: Coordinated suites of morphological, physiological and behavioral characters that optimize fitness through alternative routes and respond to selection as a whole. Still others may be vestigial adaptations that are no longer beneficial in present times. Finally, variation may be adaptative in and by itself, as it reduces competition for finite resources. These and other evolutionary mechanisms are reviewed and illustrated through human and non-human examples. Evolutionary theory is the best-substantiated explanatory framework across the life sciences, and may shed light on the question of why harmful personalities exist at all.

Transplant experiments demonstrate that larger brains are favoured in high-competition environments in Trinidadian killifish

The extent to which the evolution of a larger brain is adaptive remains controversial. Trinidadian killifish (Anablepsoides hartii) are found in sites that differ in predation intensity; fish that experience decreased predation and increased intraspecific competition exhibit larger brains. We evaluated the connection between brain size and fitness (survival and growth) when killifish are found in their native habitats and when fish are transplanted from sites with predators to high-competition sites that lack predators. Selection for a larger brain was absent within locally adapted populations. Conversely, there was a strong positive relationship between brain size and growth in transplanted but not resident fish in high-competition environments. We also observed significantly larger brain sizes in the transplanted fish that were recaptured at the end of the experiment versus those that were not. Our results provide experimental support that larger brains increase fitness and are favoured in high-competition environments.

Selective effects of a short transient environmental fluctuation on a natural population

Natural populations experience continuous and often transient changes of environmental conditions. These in turn may result in fluctuating selection pressures leading to variable demographic and evolutionary population responses. Rapid adaptation as short-term response to a sudden environmental change has in several cases been attributed to polygenic traits, but the underlying genomic dynamics and architecture are poorly understood. In this study, we took advantage of a natural experiment in an insect population of the non-biting midge Chironomus riparius by monitoring genome-wide allele frequencies before and after a cold snap event. Whole genome pooled sequencing of time series samples revealed 10 selected haplotypes carrying ancient polymorphisms, partially with signatures of balancing selection. By constantly cold exposing genetically variable individuals in the laboratory, we could demonstrate with whole genome resequencing (i) that among the survivors, the same alleles rose in frequency as in the wild, and (ii) that the identified variants additively predicted fitness (survival time) of its bearers. Finally, by simultaneously sequencing the genome and the transcriptome of cold exposed individuals we could tentatively link some of the selected SNPs to the cis- and trans-regulation of genes and pathways known to be involved in cold response of insects, such as cytochrome P450 and fatty acid metabolism. Altogether, our results shed light on the strength and speed of selection in natural populations and the genomic architecture of its underlying polygenic trait. Population genomic time series data thus appear as promising tool for measuring the selective tracking of fluctuating selection in natural populations.

Population Genomic Time Series Data of a Natural Population Suggests Adaptive Tracking of Fluctuating Environmental Changes

Natural populations are constantly exposed to fluctuating environmental changes that negatively affect their fitness in unpredictable ways. While theoretical models show the possibility of counteracting these environmental changes through rapid evolutionary adaptations, there have been few empirical studies demonstrating such adaptive tracking in natural populations. Here, we analyzed environmental data, fitness-related phenotyping and genomic time-series data sampled over 3 years from a natural Chironomus riparius (Diptera, Insecta) population to address this question. We show that the population's environment varied significantly on the time scale of the sampling in many selectively relevant dimensions, independently of each other. Similarly, phenotypic fitness components evolved significantly on the same temporal scale (mean 0.32 Haldanes), likewise independent from each other. The allele frequencies of 367,446 SNPs across the genome showed evidence of positive selection. Using temporal correlation of spatially coherent allele frequency changes revealed 35,574 haplotypes with more than one selected SNP. The mean selection coefficient for these haplotypes was 0.30 (s.d. = 0.68). The frequency changes of these haplotypes clustered in 46 different temporal patterns, indicating concerted, independent evolution of many polygenic traits. Nine of these patterns were strongly correlated with measured environmental variables. Enrichment analysis of affected genes suggested the implication of a wide variety of biological processes. Thus, our results suggest overall that the natural population of C. riparius tracks environmental change through rapid polygenic adaptation in many independent dimensions. This is further evidence that natural selection is pervasive at the genomic level and that evolutionary and ecological time scales may not differ at all, at least in some organisms.

Laplace's demon in biology: Models of evolutionary prediction

Our ability to predict natural phenomena can be limited by incomplete information. This issue is exemplified by "Laplace's demon," an imaginary creature proposed in the 18th century, who knew everything about everything, and thus could predict the full nature of the universe forward or backward in time. Quantum mechanics, among other things, has cast doubt on the possibility of Laplace's demon in the full sense, but the idea still serves as a useful metaphor for thinking about the extent to which prediction is limited by incomplete information on deterministic processes versus random factors. Here, we use simple analytical models and computer simulations to illustrate how data limits can be captured in a Bayesian framework, and how they influence our ability to predict evolution. We show how uncertainty in measurements of natural selection, or low predictability of external environmental factors affecting selection, can greatly reduce predictive power, often swamping the influence of intrinsic randomness caused by genetic drift. Thus, more accurate knowledge concerning the causes and action of natural selection is key to improving prediction. Fortunately, our analyses and simulations show quantitatively that reasonable improvements in data quantity and quality can meaningfully increase predictability.

Linking leaf economic and hydraulic traits with early-age growth performance and survival of Eucalyptus pauciflora

Selection on plant functional traits may occur through their direct effects on fitness (or a fitness component), or may be mediated by attributes of plant performance which have a direct impact on fitness. Understanding this link is particularly challenging for long-lived organisms, such as forest trees, where lifetime fitness assessments are rarely achievable, and performance features and fitness components are usually quantified from early-life history stages. Accordingly, we studied a cohort of trees from multiple populations of Eucalyptus pauciflora grown in a common-garden field trial established at the hot and dry end of the species distribution on the island of Tasmania, Australia. We related the within-population variation in leaf economic (leaf thickness, leaf area and leaf density) and hydraulic (stomatal density, stomatal length and vein density) traits, measured from two-year-old plants, to two-year growth performance (height and stem diameter) and to a fitness component (seven-year survival). When performance-trait relationships were modelled for all traits simultaneously, statistical support for direct effects on growth performance was only observed for leaf thickness and leaf density. Performance-based estimators of directional selection indicated that individuals with reduced leaf thickness and increased leaf density were favoured. Survival-performance relationships were consistent with size-dependent mortality, with fitness-based selection gradients estimated for performance measures providing evidence for directional selection favouring individuals with faster growth. There was no statistical support for an effect associated with the fitness-based quadratic selection gradient estimated for growth performance. Conditional on a performance measure, fitness-based directional selection gradients estimated for the leaf traits did not provide statistical support for direct effects of the focal traits on tree survival. This suggested that, under the environmental conditions of the trial site and time period covered in the current study, early-stage selection on the studied leaf traits may be mediated by their effects on growth performance, which in turn has a positive direct influence on later-age survival. We discuss the potential mechanistic basis of the direct effects of the focal leaf traits on tree growth, and the relevance of a putative causal pathway of trait effects on fitness through mediation by growth performance in the studied hot and dry environment.

Mechanisms of flower coloring and eco-evolutionary implications of massive blooming events in the Atacama Desert

The Atacama Desert, one of the driest places on earth, holds a rich biodiversity that becomes most appreciable in years when unusual rainfall accumulation triggers a phenomenon of explosive development of ephemeral herbaceous and woody desert species known as “desierto florido” or “blooming desert.” Despite the scientific importance of this unique phenomenon only few studies have addressed the mechanisms of flower phenotypic divergence under the fluctuating environment provided by this recurrent event. We investigated the mechanisms of floral color diversity in Cistanthe longiscapa (Montiaceae), a dominant species across the ephemeral blooming landscape of Atacama Desert. Our analyses show that the variation in colors of C. longiscapa flowers result from petals containing betalain pigments with different absorption spectra. The different pigment composition of petals causes flower color differences in the visible and ultraviolet (UV) range of the spectrum. Through color vision models we show that C. longiscapa flowers are highly polymorphic in their color appearance for insect pollinators. Our results highlight the variable nature in flower color of C. longiscapa varieties blooming simultaneously in a geographical restricted area. Given the importance of color in attracting floral visitors, the observed color variability could contribute to increased cross pollination in extreme desert conditions, while accounting for complex and fluctuating histories of plant-pollinator interactions.

Climate fluctuations influence variation in group size in a cooperative bird

Variation in group size is ubiquitous in social animals, but explaining the range of group sizes seen in nature remains challenging.^1-3 Group-living species occur most frequently in climatically unpredictable environments, such that the costs and benefits of sociality may change from year to year.^4-6 It is, therefore, possible that variation in climate may help to maintain a range of group sizes, but this hypothesis is rarely tested empirically.^7,8 Here, we examine selection on breeding group size in the greater ani (Crotophaga major), a tropical bird that nests in cooperative groups containing multiple co-breeders and non-breeding helpers.⁹ We found that larger groups experience lower nest predation (due to cooperative nest defense) but suffer higher nestling starvation (due to intra-clutch competition). Long-term data revealed that the relative magnitude of these costs and benefits depends on climate, with frequent changes across years in the strength and direction of selection on group size. In wet years, individual reproductive success was higher in large groups than in small groups, whereas the opposite was true in dry years. This was partly a consequence of competition among nestlings in large clutches, which suffered significantly higher mortality in dry years than in wet years. Averaged over the 13-year study period, annual reproductive success was approximately equal for females in small and large groups. These results suggest that temporal changes in the direction of selection may help explain the persistence of a range of group sizes and that a full understanding of the selective pressures shaping sociality requires long-term fitness data.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going: Effect of extreme climate on an Antarctic seabird's life history

Individuals differ in many ways. Most produce few offspring; a handful produce many. Some die early; others live to old age. It is tempting to attribute these differences in outcomes to differences in individual traits, and thus in the demographic rates experienced. However, there is more to individual variation than meets the eye of the biologist. Even among individuals sharing identical traits, life history outcomes (life expectancy and lifetime reproduction) will vary due to individual stochasticity, that is to chance. Quantifying the contributions of heterogeneity and chance is essential to understand natural variability. Interindividual differences vary across environmental conditions, hence heterogeneity and stochasticity depend on environmental conditions. We show that favourable conditions increase the contributions of individual stochasticity, and reduce the contributions of heterogeneity, to variance in demographic outcomes in a seabird population. The opposite is true under poor conditions. This result has important consequence for understanding the ecology and evolution of life history strategies.

The advantage of sex: Reinserting fluctuating selection in the pluralist approach

The advantage of sex, and its fixation in some clades and species all over the eukaryote tree of life, is considered an evolutionary enigma, especially regarding its assumed two-fold cost. Several likely hypotheses have been proposed such as (1) a better response to the negative frequency-dependent selection imposed by the “Red Queen” hypothesis; (2) the competition between siblings induced by the Tangled Bank hypothesis; (3) the existence of genetic and of (4) ecological factors that can diminish the cost of sex to less than the standard assumed two-fold; and (5) a better maintenance of genetic diversity and its resulting phenotypic variation, providing a selective advantage in randomly fluctuating environments. While these hypotheses have mostly been studied separately, they can also act simultaneously. This was advocated by several studies which presented a pluralist point of view. Only three among the five causes cited above were considered yet in such a framework: the Red Queen hypothesis, the Tangled Bank and the genetic factors lowering the cost of sex. We thus simulated the evolution of a finite mutating population undergoing negative frequency-dependent selection on phenotypes and a two-fold (or less) cost of sexuality, experiencing randomly fluctuating selection along generations. The individuals inherited their reproductive modes, either clonal or sexual. We found that exclusive sexuality begins to fix in populations exposed to environmental variation that exceeds the width of one ecological niche (twice the standard deviation of a Gaussian response to environment). This threshold was lowered by increasing negative frequency-dependent selection and when reducing the two-fold cost of sex. It contributes advocating that the different processes involved in a short-term advantage of sex and recombination can act in combination to favor the fixation of sexual reproduction in populations.

Effects of primary seed dormancy on lifetime fitness of Arabidopsis thaliana in the field

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Seed dormancy determines the environmental niche of plants in seasonal environments, and has consequences for plant performance that potentially go far beyond the seed and seedling stages. In this study, we examined the cascading effects of seed dormancy on the expression of subsequent life-history traits and fitness in the annual herb Arabidopsis thaliana.

METHODS

We planted seeds of >200 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from a cross between two locally adapted populations (Italy and Sweden), and both parental genotypes at the native site of the Swedish population in three consecutive years. We quantified the relationship between primary seed dormancy and the expression of subsequent life-history traits and fitness in the RIL population with path analysis. To examine the effects of differences in dormancy on the relative fitness of the two parental genotypes, we planted dormant seeds during the seed dispersal period and non-dormant seeds during the germination period of the local population.

KEY RESULTS

In the RIL population, strong primary dormancy was associated with high seedling survival, but with low adult survival and fecundity, and path analysis indicated that this could be explained by effects on germination timing, rosette size and flowering start. The relationship between primary seed dormancy and germination proportion varied among years, and this was associated with differences in seasonal changes in soil moisture. The planting of dormant and non-dormant seeds indicated that the lower primary dormancy of the local Swedish genotype contributed to its higher germination proportion in two years and to its higher fecundity in one year.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that seed dormancy affects trait expression and fitness components across the life cycle, and suggest that among-year variation in the incidence of drought during the germination period should be considered when predicting the consequences of climatic change for population growth and evolution.

Age-dependent genetic architecture across ontogeny of body size in sticklebacks

Heritable variation in traits under natural selection is a prerequisite for evolutionary response. While it is recognized that trait heritability may vary spatially and temporally depending on which environmental conditions traits are expressed under, less is known about the possibility that genetic variance contributing to the expected selection response in a given trait may vary at different stages of ontogeny. Specifically, whether different loci underlie the expression of a trait throughout development and thus providing an additional source of variation for selection to act on in the wild, is unclear. Here we show that body size, an important life-history trait, is heritable throughout ontogeny in the nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius). Nevertheless, both analyses of quantitative trait loci and genetic correlations across ages show that different chromosomes/loci contribute to this heritability in different ontogenic time-points. This suggests that body size can respond to selection at different stages of ontogeny but that this response is determined by different loci at different points of development. Hence, our study provides important results regarding our understanding of the genetics of ontogeny and opens an interesting avenue of research for studying age-specific genetic architecture as a source of non-parallel evolution.

Increasing temporal variance leads to stable species range limits

What prevents populations of a species from adapting to the novel environments outside the species' geographic distribution? Previous models highlighted how gene flow across spatial environmental gradients determines species expansion versus extinction and the location of species range limits. However, space is only one of two axes of environmental variation-environments also vary in time, and we know temporal environmental variation has important consequences for population demography and evolution. We used analytical and individual-based evolutionary models to explore how temporal variation in environmental conditions influences the spread of populations across a spatial environmental gradient. We find that temporal variation greatly alters our predictions for range dynamics compared to temporally static environments. When temporal variance is equal across the landscape, the fate of species (expansion versus extinction) is determined by the interaction between the degree of temporal autocorrelation in environmental fluctuations and the steepness of the spatial environmental gradient. When the magnitude of temporal variance changes across the landscape, stable range limits form where this variance increases maladaptation sufficiently to prevent local persistence. These results illustrate the pivotal influence of temporal variation on the likelihood of populations colonizing novel habitats and the location of species range limits.

Contemporary selection on MHC genes in a free-living ruminant population

Genes within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are the most variable identified in vertebrates. Pathogen-mediated selection is believed to be the main force maintaining MHC diversity. However, relatively few studies have demonstrated contemporary selection on MHC genes. Here, we examine associations between MHC variation and several fitness measurements including total fitness and five fitness components, in 3400 wild Soay sheep (Ovis aries) monitored between 1989 and 2012. In terms of total fitness, measured as lifetime breeding success of all individuals born, we found haplotypes named C and D were associated with decreased and increased male total fitness respectively. In terms of fitness components, juvenile survival was associated with haplotype divergence while individual haplotypes (C, D and F) were associated with adult fitness components. Consistent with the increased male total fitness, the rarest haplotype D has increased in frequency throughout the study period more than expected under neutral expectations. Our results demonstrate contemporary natural selection is acting on MHC class II genes in Soay sheep and the mode of selection on specific fitness components can be different mode from selection on total fitness.

Frequency dependence and the predictability of evolution in a changing environment

Frequency‐dependent (FD) selection, whereby fitness and selection depend on the genetic or phenotypic composition of the population, arises in numerous ecological contexts (competition, mate choice, crypsis, mimicry, etc.) and can strongly impact evolutionary dynamics. In particular, negative frequency‐dependent selection (NFDS) is well known for its ability to potentially maintain stable polymorphisms, but it has also been invoked as a source of persistent, predictable frequency fluctuations. However, the conditions under which such fluctuations persist are not entirely clear. In particular, previous work rarely considered that FD is unlikely to be the sole driver of evolutionary dynamics when it occurs, because most environments are not static but instead change dynamically over time. Here, we investigate how FD interacts with a temporally fluctuating environment to shape the dynamics of population genetic change. We show that a simple metric introduced by Lewontin, the slope of frequency change against frequency near equilibrium, works as a key criterion for distinguishing microevolutionary outcomes, even in a changing environment. When this slope D is between 0 and –2 (consistent with the empirical examples we review), substantial fluctuations would not persist on their own in a large population occupying a constant environment, but they can still be maintained indefinitely as quasi‐cycles fueled by environmental noise or genetic drift. However, such moderate NFDS buffers and temporally shifts evolutionary responses to periodic environments (e.g., seasonality). Stronger FD, with slope D < –2, can produce self‐sustained cycles that may overwhelm responses to a changing environment, or even chaos that fundamentally limits predictability. This diversity of expected outcomes, together with the empirical evidence for both FD and environment‐dependent selection, suggests that the interplay of internal dynamics with external forcing should be investigated more systematically to reach a better understanding and prediction of evolution.

Evidence for morph-specific substrate choice in a green-brown polymorphic grasshopper

Orthopteran insects are characterized by high variability in body coloration, in particular featuring a widespread green-brown color polymorphism. The mechanisms that contribute to the maintenance of this apparently balanced polymorphism are not yet understood. To investigate whether morph-dependent microhabitat choice might contribute to the continued coexistence of multiple morphs, we studied substrate choice in the meadow grasshopper Pseudochorthippus parallelus. The meadow grasshopper occurs in multiple discrete, genetically determined color morphs that range from uniform brown to uniform green. We tested whether three common morphs preferentially choose differently colored backgrounds in an experimental arena. We found that a preference for green backgrounds was most pronounced in uniform green morphs. If differential choices improve morph-specific performance in natural habitats via crypsis and/or thermoregulatory benefits, they could help to equalize fitness differences among color morphs and potentially produce frequency-dependent microhabitat competition, though difference appear too small to serve as the only explanation. We also measured the reflectance of the grasshoppers and backgrounds and used visual modeling to quantify the detectability of the different morphs to a range of potential predators. Multiple potential predators, including birds and spiders, are predicted to distinguish between morphs chromatically, while other species, possibly including grasshoppers themselves, will perceive only differences in brightness. Our study provides the first evidence that morph-specific microhabitat choice might be relevant to the maintenance of the green-brown polymorphisms in grasshoppers and shows that visual distinctness of color morphs varies between perceivers.

Detecting patterns of correlational selection with sampling error: A simulation study

The adoption of a multivariate perspective of selection implies the existence of multivariate adaptive peaks and pervasive correlational selection that promotes co-adaptation between traits. However, to test for the ubiquity of correlational selection in nature, we must first have a sense of how well can we estimate multivariate nonlinear selection (i.e., the γ-matrix) in the face of sampling error. To explore the sampling properties of estimated γ-matrices, we simulated inidividual traits and fitness under a wide range of sample sizes, using different strengths of correlational selection and of stabilizing selection, combined with different number of traits under selection, different amounts of residual variance in fitness, and distinct patterns of selection. We then ran nonlinear regressions with these simulated datasets to simulate γ-matrices after adding random error to individual fitness. To test how well could we detect the imposed pattern of correlational selection at different sample sizes, we measured the similarity between simulated and imposed γ-matrices. We show that detection of the pattern of correlational selection is highly dependent on the total strength of selection on traits and on the amount of residual variance in fitness. Minimum sample size needs to be at least 500 to precisely estimate the pattern of correlational selection. Furthermore, a pattern of selection in which different sets of traits contribute to different functions is the easiest to diagnose, even when using a large number of traits (10 traits), but with sample sizes in the order of 1000 individuals. Consequently, we recommend working with sets of traits from distinct functional complexes and fitness proxies less prone to effects of environmental and demographic stochasticity to test for correlational selection with lower sample sizes.

Directional Selection on Tree Seedling Traits Driven by Experimental Drought Differs Between Mesic and Dry Populations

We evaluated population differences and drought-induced phenotypic selection on four seedling traits of the Australian forest tree Eucalyptus pauciflora using a glasshouse dry-down experiment. We compared dry and mesic populations and tested for directional selection on lamina length (reflecting leaf size), leaf shape, the node of ontogenetic transition to the petiolate leaf (reflecting the loss of vegetative juvenility), and lignotuber size (reflecting a recovery trait). On average, the dry population had smaller and broader leaves, greater retention of the juvenile leaf state and larger lignotubers than the mesic population, but the populations did not differ in seedling survival. While there was statistical support for directional selection acting on the focal traits in one or other population, and for differences between populations in selection gradient estimates for two traits, only one trait—lamina length—exhibited a pattern of directional selection consistent with the observed population differences being a result of past adaptation to reduce seedling susceptibility to acute drought. The observed directional selection for lamina length in the mesic population suggests that future increases in drought risk in the wild will shift the mean of the mesic population toward that of the dry population. Further, we provide evidence suggesting an early age trade-off between drought damage and recovery traits, with phenotypes which develop larger lignotubers early being more susceptible to drought death. Such trade-offs could have contributed to the absence of population mean differences in survival, despite marked differentiation in seedling traits.

Social Selection and the Evolution of Maladaptation

Evolution by natural selection is often viewed as a process that inevitably leads to adaptation or an increase in population fitness over time. However, maladaptation, an evolved decrease in fitness, may also occur in response to natural selection under some conditions. Social selection, which arises from the effects of social partners on fitness, has been identified as a potential cause of maladaptation, but we lack a general rule identifying when social selection should lead to a decrease in population mean fitness. Here we use a quantitative genetic model to develop such a rule. We show that maladaptation is most likely to occur when social selection is strong relative to nonsocial selection and acts in an opposing direction. In this scenario, the evolution of traits that impose fitness costs on others may outweigh evolved gains in fitness for the individual, leading to a net decrease in population mean fitness. Furthermore, we find that maladaptation may also sometimes occur when phenotypes of interacting individuals negatively covary. We outline the biological situations where maladaptation in response to social selection can be expected, provide both quantitative genetic and phenotypic versions of our derived result, and suggest what empirical work would be needed to test it. We also consider the effect of social selection on inclusive fitness and support previous work showing that inclusive fitness cannot suffer an evolutionary decrease. Taken together, our results show that social selection may decrease population mean fitness when it opposes individual-level selection, even as inclusive fitness increases.

Rapid phenotypic change in a polymorphic salamander over 43 years

Color polymorphic animals offer a unique system for studying intraspecific phenotypic responses to climate change. Discrete color morphs are easy to identify, and correlated trait responses of morphs can indicate how climate warming may facilitate long-term maintenance of polymorphisms. We use a historical dataset spanning 43 years to examine temporal shifts in color morph frequency and body size in response to climate in the Eastern Red-backed Salamander, Plethodon cinereus, which contains a widespread striped/unstriped color polymorphism. We created a pipeline to extract high-throughput trait data from fluid-preserved museum specimens where we batch-photographed salamanders, de-aggregated individual specimens from photographs, and solicited help of community scientists to score color morphs. We used a linear modeling framework that includes information about spatial population structure to demonstrate that color morph frequency and body size vary in response to climate, elevation, and over time, with an overall trend of higher frequency and decreased body size of the striped morph, but increased size of the unstriped morph. These surprising results suggest that morphs may be responding to multiple climate and geographic drivers through co-adapted morphological changes. This work highlights new practices of extracting trait data from museum specimens to demonstrate species phenotypes response to climate change.

Pollinator Community Predicts Trait Matching between Oil-Producing Flowers and a Guild of Oil-Collecting Bees

AbstractThe impact of pollinator community diversity on trait matching in plant-pollinator interactions is poorly studied, even though many mutualisms involve multiple interaction partners. We studied 10 communities in which one to three species of oil-collecting Rediviva bees pollinate the long-spurred, oil-producing flowers of Diascia "floribunda" to examine how pollinator diversity affects covariation of functional traits across sites and trait matching within sites. Floral spur length was significantly correlated with weighted grand mean foreleg length of the local bee community but not with foreleg length of individual bee species. The closeness of trait matching varied among populations and was inversely related to pollinator community diversity. For all bee species, trait matching was closest at sites characterized by exclusive pairwise interactions. Reduced trait matching associated with increased community diversity for individual pollinator species but close matching at the community level supports the importance of community context for shaping interacting traits of flowers and pollinators.

Variation in seasonal timing traits and life history along a latitudinal transect in Mimulus ringens

Seasonal timing traits are commonly under recurrent, spatially variable selection, and are therefore predicted to exhibit clinal variation. Temperate perennial plants often require vernalization to prompt growth and reproduction; however, little is known about whether vernalization requirements change across the range of a broadly distributed species. We performed a critical vernalization duration study in Mimulus ringens, coupled with population genomic analysis. Plants from eight populations spanning the latitudinal range were exposed to varying durations of 4°C vernalization between 0 and 56 days, and flowering response was assessed. RADSeq was also performed to generate 1179 polymorphic SNPs, which were used to examine population structure. We found unexpected life history variation, with some populations lacking vernalization requirement. Population genomic analyses show that these life history variants are highly divergent from perennials, potentially revealing a cryptic species. For perennial populations, minimum vernalization time was surprisingly consistent. However, once vernalized, northern populations flowered almost 3 weeks faster than southern. Furthermore, southern populations exhibited sensitivity to vernalization times beyond flowering competency, suggesting an ability to respond adaptively to different lengths of winter. Mimulus ringens, therefore, reveals evidence of clinal variation, and provides opportunities for future studies addressing mechanistic and ecological hypotheses both within and between incipient species.

Shape-shifting: changing animal morphologies as a response to climatic warming

Many animal appendages, such as avian beaks and mammalian ears, can be used to dissipate excess body heat. Allen's rule, wherein animals in warmer climates have larger appendages to facilitate more efficient heat exchange, reflects this. We find that there is widespread evidence of 'shape-shifting' (changes in appendage size) in endotherms in response to climate change and its associated climatic warming. We re-examine studies of morphological change over time within a thermoregulatory context, finding evidence that temperature can be a strong predictor of morphological change independently of, or combined with, other environmental changes. Last, we discuss how Allen's rule, the degree of temperature change, and other ecological factors facilitate morphological change and make predictions about what animals will show shape-shifting.

Heterogeneous selection on exploration behavior within and among West European populations of a passerine bird

Heterogeneous selection is often proposed as a key mechanism maintaining repeatable behavioral variation ("animal personality") in wild populations. Previous studies largely focused on temporal variation in selection within single populations. The relative importance of spatial versus temporal variation remains unexplored, despite these processes having distinct effects on local adaptation. Using data from >3,500 great tits (Parus major) and 35 nest box plots situated within five West-European populations monitored over 4 to 18 y, we show that selection on exploration behavior varies primarily spatially, across populations, and study plots within populations. Exploration was, simultaneously, selectively neutral in the average population and year. These findings imply that spatial variation in selection may represent a primary mechanism maintaining animal personalities, likely promoting the evolution of local adaptation, phenotype-dependent dispersal, and nonrandom settlement. Selection also varied within populations among years, which may counteract local adaptation. Our study underlines the importance of combining multiple spatiotemporal scales in the study of behavioral adaptation.

Broad geographic sampling reveals the shared basis and environmental correlates of seasonal adaptation in Drosophila

To advance our understanding of adaptation to temporally varying selection pressures, we identified signatures of seasonal adaptation occurring in parallel among Drosophila melanogaster populations. Specifically, we estimated allele frequencies genome-wide from flies sampled early and late in the growing season from 20 widely dispersed populations. We identified parallel seasonal allele frequency shifts across North America and Europe, demonstrating that seasonal adaptation is a general phenomenon of temperate fly populations. Seasonally fluctuating polymorphisms are enriched in large chromosomal inversions, and we find a broad concordance between seasonal and spatial allele frequency change. The direction of allele frequency change at seasonally variable polymorphisms can be predicted by weather conditions in the weeks prior to sampling, linking the environment and the genomic response to selection. Our results suggest that fluctuating selection is an important evolutionary force affecting patterns of genetic variation in Drosophila.

Ecological causes of fluctuating natural selection on habitat choice in an amphibian

We estimated natural selection targeting three traits related to habitat choice in a frog (Pseudacris maculata) breeding in pools on the rocky shores of Isle Royale, Michigan, over 16 years. Our aim was to identify the form and ecological causes of annual variation in directional and correlational selection as expressed in the survival and growth of tadpoles. We found directional selection favoring early breeding, but pool choice was under weak stabilizing selection. However, the form of stabilizing selection and the position of the optimum trait value shifted among years with the severity of disturbance and the intensity of biotic interactions. In years when wave wash and pool desiccation were severe, selection shifted to favor tadpoles in habitats where these risks were less pronounced. If predatory dragonfly larvae were abundant, selection favored tadpoles in small pools where dragonflies did not occur. When intraspecific competition was strong, selection favored early broods within a broader range of pool types. The agents of selection in this study—biotic interactions and disturbance—are common to many ecological systems and frequently exhibit temporal variation; this suggests that fluctuating selection may be widespread in natural populations.

A quantitative genetics approach to validate lab- versus field-based behavior in novel environments

Conclusions about the adaptive nature of repeatable variation in behavior (i.e., “personality”) are often derived from laboratory-based assays. However, the expression of genetic variation differs between laboratory and field. Laboratory-based behavior might not predict field-based behavior thus, cross-context validation is required. We estimated the cross-context correlation between behavior expressed by wild great tits (Parus major) in established laboratory versus field novel environment assays. Both assays have been used as proxies for “exploration tendency.” Behavior in both contexts had similar repeatability (R = 0.35 vs. 0.37) but differed in heritability (h2 = 0.06 vs. 0.23), implying differences in selection pressures. Unexpectedly, there was no cross-context correlation. Laboratory- and field-based behavior thus reflected expressions of two distinct underlying characters. Post hoc simulations revealed that sampling bias did not explain the lack of correlation. Laboratory-based behavior may reflect fear and exploration, but field-based behavior may reflect escape behavior instead, though other functional interpretations cannot be excluded. Thus, in great tits, activity expressed in laboratory versus field novel environment assays is modulated by multiple quasi-independent characters. The lack of cross-context correlation shown here may also apply to other setups, other repeatable behaviors, and other taxa. Our study thus implies care should be taken in labeling behaviors prior to firm validation studies.

Social selection is density dependent but makes little contribution to total selection in New Zealand giraffe weevils

Social selection occurs when traits of interaction partners influence an individual's fitness and can alter total selection strength. However, we have little idea of what factors influence social selection's strength. Further, social selection only contributes to overall selection when there is phenotypic assortment, but simultaneous estimates of social selection and phenotypic assortment are rare. Here, we estimated social selection on body size in a wild population of New Zealand giraffe weevils (Lasiorhynchus barbicornis). We measured phenotypic assortment by body size and tested whether social selection varied with sex ratio, density and interacted with the body size of the focal individual. Social selection was limited and unaffected by sex ratio or the size of the focal individual. However, at high densities social selection was negative for both sexes, consistent with size-based competitive interactions for access to mates. Phenotypic assortment was always close to zero, indicating negative social selection at high densities will not impede the evolution of larger body sizes. Despite its predicted importance, social selection may only influence evolutionary change in specific contexts, leaving direct selection to drive evolutionary change.

The interaction of resource use and gene flow on the phenotypic divergence of benthic and pelagic morphs of Icelandic Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus)

Conceptual models of adaptive divergence and ecological speciation in sympatry predict differential resource use, phenotype-environment correlations, and reduced gene flow among diverging phenotypes. While these predictions have been assessed in past studies, connections among them have rarely been assessed collectively. We examined relationships among phenotypic, ecological, and genetic variation in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) from six Icelandic localities that have undergone varying degrees of divergence into sympatric benthic and pelagic morphs. We characterized morphological variation with geometric morphometrics, tested for differential resource use between morphs using stable isotopes, and inferred the amount of gene flow from single nucleotide polymorphisms. Analysis of stable isotopic signatures indicated that sympatric morphs showed similar difference in resource use across populations, likely arising from the common utilization of niche space within each population. Carbon isotopic signature was also a significant predictor of individual variation in body shape and size, suggesting that variation in benthic and pelagic resource use is associated with phenotypic variation. The estimated percentage of hybrids between sympatric morphs varied across populations (from 0% to 15.6%) but the majority of fish had genotypes (ancestry coefficients) characteristic of pure morphs. Despite evidence of reduced gene flow between sympatric morphs, we did not detect the expected negative relationship between divergence in resource use and gene flow. Three lakes showed the expected pattern, but morphs in the fourth showed no detectable hybridization and had relatively low differences in resource use between them. This coupled with the finding that resource use and genetic differentiation had differential effects on body shape variation across populations suggests that reproductive isolation maintains phenotypic divergence between benthic and pelagic morphs when the effects of resource use are relatively low. Our ability to assess relationships between phenotype, ecology, and genetics deepens our understanding of the processes underlying adaptive divergence in sympatry.

Episodes of opposing survival and reproductive selection cause strong fluctuating selection on seasonal migration versus residence

Quantifying temporal variation in sex-specific selection on key ecologically relevant traits, and quantifying how such variation arises through synergistic or opposing components of survival and reproductive selection, is central to understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics, but rarely achieved. Seasonal migration versus residence is one key trait that directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics in spatially and temporally varying environments, but temporal dynamics of sex-specific selection have not been fully quantified. We fitted multi-event capture-recapture models to year-round ring resightings and breeding success data from partially migratory European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to quantify temporal variation in annual sex-specific selection on seasonal migration versus residence arising through adult survival, reproduction and the combination of both (i.e. annual fitness). We demonstrate episodes of strong and strongly fluctuating selection through annual fitness that were broadly synchronized across females and males. These overall fluctuations arose because strong reproductive selection against migration in several years contrasted with strong survival selection against residence in years with extreme climatic events. These results indicate how substantial phenotypic and genetic variation in migration versus residence could be maintained, and highlight that biologically important fluctuations in selection may not be detected unless both survival selection and reproductive selection are appropriately quantified and combined.

Innovative mark-recapture experiment shows patterns of selection on transcript abundance in the wild

A fundamental aspect of evolutionary biology is natural selection on trait variation. Classically, selection has been estimated primarily on external morphological traits such as beak size and coloration, or on easily assayable physiological traits such as heat-tolerance. As technologies and methods improved, evolutionary biologists began examining selection on molecular traits such as protein sequences and cellular processes. In a From the Cover paper in this issue of Molecular Ecology, Ahmad et al. continue this trend by estimating parasite-driven selection on the molecular trait of transcript abundance in a wild population of brown trout (Salmo trutta) by uniquely combining a mark-recapture experimental design with noninvasive RNA sampling. Using transcript abundance to estimate selection allows for many different traits (each unique gene's transcript counts) to be tested in a single experiment, providing the opportunity to examine trends in selection. Ahmad et al. find directional selection strength on transcript counts is generally low and normally distributed. Surprisingly, transcripts under nonlinear selection showed a disruptive selection bias, contradicting previous comparative studies and theoretical work. This highlights the importance of within-generation selection studies, where mechanisms may differ from longer time frames. Their paper also highlights the benefits of a cost-effective 3' RNA sequencing technique to measure gene expression.

Monarch Butterfly Migration as an Integrative Model of Complex Trait Evolution

AbstractUnderstanding the genetic architecture of complex trait adaptation in natural populations requires the continued development of tractable models that explicitly confront organismal and environmental complexity. A decade of high-throughput sequencing-based investigations into the genomic basis of migration points to an integrative framework that incorporates quantitative genetics, evolutionary developmental biology, phenotypic plasticity, and epigenetics to explain migration evolution. In this perspective, I argue that the transcontinental migration of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) can serve as a compelling system to study the mechanism of evolutionary lability of a complex trait. Monarchs show significant phenotypic and genotypic diversity across their global range, with phenotypic switching that allows for explicit study of evolutionary lability. A developmental approach for elucidating how migratory traits are generated and functionally integrated will be important for understanding the evolution of monarch migration traits. I propose a plasticity threshold model to describe migration lability, and I describe novel functional techniques that will help resolve open questions and model assumptions. I conclude by considering the relationships between adaptive genetic architecture, anthropogenic climate change, and conservation management practice and the timeliness of the monarch migration model to illuminate these connections given the rapid decline of the North American migration.

Dancing in the rain: how do abiotic conditions influence sexually selected behaviors in the White-ruffed Manakin?

Tropical animals respond to rainfall in population-specific ways. In extremely wet regions, endotherms experience heavy rains as stressors with consequences for behavior and demography. Ultimately, such stressors can affect the relative strength of abiotic selection, reducing the scope for sexual selection and other biotic sources of selection. We studied population-level differences in the response to rainfall in White-ruffed Manakins (Corapipo altera) on the Caribbean slope of Costa Rica, a species having a lek mating system subject to strong sexual selection. Between 2008 and 2013, we studied reproductive behavior in a population inhabiting an extremely wet site; estimates of apparent survival were low, and the turnover of display courts and dominant males was high. Males also engaged in coordinated display, and sub-adult males practiced in the presence of adults. Over three breeding seasons (2017-2019), we studied a population of the same species at a site only 110 km away, but in a location receiving roughly half as much rain. We tested behavioral predictions of three alternative mechanisms-indirect abiotic effects, direct mortality effects, and direct behavioral effects-linking rainfall to sexual selection in these two populations. Data derived from over 4300 hr of observations at 105 display sites revealed high interannual variation in nearly all response variables, including turnover of display sites, retention of alpha status, male display behavior, and time females spent assessing male display. Additionally, we detected spatial differences in drivers of display site turnover. Notably, age distribution of males was skewed toward older individuals at the drier location. Based on these findings we infer that indirect abiotic effects on forest structure leading to display site transience and direct effects of mortality increasing turnover in the male population likely underlie links between rain and the spatial and temporal differences we documented. Our results are consistent with rain constituting an important source of abiotic selection for tropical endotherms and modulating the scope for sexual selection near the extremes of a species' hygric niche.