Predicting the unpredictable; evidence of pre‐seismic anticipatory behaviour in the common toad

Species diversity and interspecific information flow

Interspecific information flow is known to affect individual fitness, population dynamics and community assembly, but there has been less study of how species diversity affects information flow and thereby ecosystem functioning and services. We address this question by first examining differences among species in the sensitivity, accuracy, transmissibility, detectability and value of the cues and signals they produce, and in how they receive, store and use information derived from heterospecifics. We then review how interspecific information flow occurs in communities, involving a diversity of species and sensory modes, and how this flow can affect ecosystem-level functions, such as decomposition, seed dispersal or algae removal on coral reefs. We highlight evidence that some keystone species are particularly critical as a source of information used by eavesdroppers, and so have a disproportionate effect on information flow. Such keystone species include community informants producing signals, particularly about predation risk, that influence other species' landscapes of fear, and aggregation initiators creating cues or signals about resources. We suggest that the presence of keystone species means that there will likely be a positive relationship in many communities between species diversity and information through a 'sampling effect', in which larger pools of species are more likely to include the keystone species by chance. We then consider whether the number and relative abundance of species, irrespective of the presence of keystone species, matter to interspecific information flow; on this issue, the theory is less developed, and the evidence scant and indirect. Higher diversity could increase the quantity or quality of information that is used by eavesdroppers because redundancy increases the reliability of information or because the species provide complementary information. Alternatively, there could be a lack of a relationship between species diversity and information if there is widespread information parasitism where users are not sources, or if information sourced from heterospecifics is of lower value than that gained personally or sourced from conspecifics. Recent research suggests that species diversity does have information-modulated community and ecosystem consequences, especially in birds, such as the diversity of species at feeders increasing resource exploitation, or the number of imitated species increasing responses to vocal mimics. A first step for future research includes comprehensive observations of information flow among different taxa and habitats. Then studies should investigate whether species diversity influences the cumulative quality or quantity of information at the community level, and consequently ecosystem-level processes. An applied objective is to conserve species in part for their value as sources of information for other species, including for humans.

On the biophysical mechanism of sensing upcoming earthquakes by animals

It is documented that a few days or weeks before major Earthquakes (EQs) there are changes in animal behavior within distances up to 500 km from the seismic epicenter. At the same time Seismic Electric Signals (SES), geomagnetic and ionospheric perturbations, are detected within similar distances. SES consist of single unipolar pulses, and/or groups of such pulses called "SES activities" with an average frequency between successive pulses on the order of ~0.01 Hz and electric field intensity on the order of ~10^-5-10^-4 V/m (Frazer-Smith et al., 1990; Rikitake, 1998; Varotsos et al., 1993, 2011, 2019; Hayakawa et al., 2013; Grant et al., 2015). We show that the SES activities can be sensed by living organisms through the "Ion Forced-Oscillation Mechanism" for the action of Electromagnetic Fields (EMFs) on cells, according to which polarized EMFs can cause irregular gating of electro-sensitive ion channels on the cell membranes with consequent disruption of the cell electrochemical balance (Panagopoulos et al., 2000, 2002, 2015). This can be sensed by sensitive animals as discomfort in cases of weak and transient exposures, and may even lead to DNA damage and serious health implications in cases of intense exposure conditions (as in certain cases of man-made EMF exposures). Moreover, we show that the geomagnetic and ionospheric perturbations cannot be sensed through this mechanism. The same mechanism has explained meteoropathy, the sensing of upcoming thunderstorms by sensitive individuals, through the action of the EMFs of lightning discharges (Panagopoulos and Balmori, 2017). The present study shows that centuries-long anecdotal rumors of animals sensing intense upcoming EQs and displaying unusual behavior, lately documented by systematic studies, are now explained for the first time on the basis of the electromagnetic nature of all living organisms, and the electromagnetic signals emitted prior to EQs.

Overlap Function Based Fuzzified Aquatic Behaviour Information Extracted Tsunami Prediction Model

Past natural hazards have produced numerous biological and physical indicators that can be used to predict similar instances in the future. These indicators can be sensed dynamically underwater or on land to generate real time alerts. This article proposes the first validated fuzzified system to predict tsunamis (FABETP) using an overlap-based algorithm. This proposed algorithm can predict seismicity based on underwater marine animal's anomalous behavior, characterized and implemented as biological indicators (i.e., aquatic animal behavioral attributes). Relevant information is extracted from these attributes and used to design fuzzy rules that generate opinion-based alerts. More precisely, the proposed algorithm, Overlap-based Fuzzified rated Marine Behavior, (OBF_MB), derives alert rules when executed on a sea turtle behavior dataset obtained from an online repository. The deployed underwater sensor-collected dataset includes the following measurements: induced electromagnetic field, undersea turtle count, and angle of deviation (in terms of the turtles' navigation direction formulated per month and per day). These values are used as the inputs to the proposed system. To generate an opinion, an information gain-based opinion score is used to calculate the opinion deviations from the generated opinions of the default rule. For future data values, 2004 is used here as the default opinion year and the scenarios is the default rule. This paper formulates three classes of opinions using the proposed algorithm: Alert, Pre-Alert and No-Alert. These opinions can be used in the future to generate real-time alerts based on aquatic animal behavior.

Can animals predict earthquakes?: Bio-sentinels as seismic sensors in communist China and beyond

This paper examines the international research on abnormal animal behavior prior to earthquakes, with a focus on Chinese seismology during the Cultural Revolution. China experienced a series of powerful earthquakes in the 1960s and 1970s; in response, its scientists developed approaches to earthquake prediction, including the use of bio-sentinels. The paper demonstrates that Chinese seismology did not treat an earthquake simply as a geophysical event, but rather as an amalgam of environmental phenomena, including sensory experiences. Hence, distributive experience and sensory networks of humans and bio-sentinels constituted an important component of studying the environment. This historical case suggests insights into bio-monitoring of the global environment.

Evaluation of 0 ≤ M ≤ 8 earthquake data sets in African - Asian region during 1966-2015

This article evaluates the occurrence of 0 [Formula: see text]M[Formula: see text] 8 earthquake data sets for the period of 50 years (that is, January 1, 1966 to December 31, 2015) in African and Western Asia region. It is bounded by latitude 40° S to 40° N and longitude 30° W to 60° E with the focal depth of 0-700 km. Seventy seven thousand, six hundred and ninety-six data points were presented for the analysis. The data used were extracted from earthquake catalog of Advanced National Seismic system via http://quake.geo.berkeley.edu/cnss/, an official website of the Northern California Earthquake Data Centre, USA. Each datum comprised the earthquake occurrence date, time of the earthquake occurrence, epicenter's coordinates, focal depth and magnitude. The Gutenberg-Richter's relationship being the longest observed empirical relationship in seismology, analysis of variance and time series were used to analyze the seismicity of the study area. Annual distributions of earthquake occurrence based on magnitude variations with the limit 0 [Formula: see text]M[Formula: see text] 8 were presented. The two constants a and b in the Gutenberg-Richter's equation, magnitude of completeness (MC) adjusted R-Square and F-value for the period of 1966-1975, 1976-1985, 1986-1995, 1996-2005, 2006-2015, and the entire period of investigation ranging from 1966 to 2015 were determined so as to investigate the variations of these parameters on earthquake occurrence over time. The histograms of earthquake occurrence against magnitude of earthquakes for the selected years (1966-1975, 1976-1985, 1986-1995, 1996-2005, 2006-2015, and 1966-2015), and the decadal frequency distributions of earthquake occurrence were also plotted. The focal depth occurrence for each magnitude bins (0-0.9, 1-1.9, 2-2.9, 3-3.9, 4-4.9, 5-5.9, 6-6.9, 7-7.9, 8-8.9) were grouped into shallow, intermediate, and deep depths ranging from 0 to 70, 71 to 300, and 301 to 700 km as being used in seismology. The neural network analysis was also applied to the magnitude of the earthquake. The network uses a time series magnitude data as input with the output being the magnitude of the following day. If the nature of the earthquakes time series is stochastic, modeling and prediction is possible. The earthquake data sets presented in this article can further be adopted in the study of seismicity pattern, b-value using series of models, earthquake prediction and variations of earthquake parameters on African and/or Arabian plates. When this approach is integrated with other technique(s), it can provide insights to stability of African lithospehric plates especially the coastal region of Africa.

ECOLOGY. Terrestrial animal tracking as an eye on life and planet

Moving animals connect our world, spreading pollen, seeds, nutrients, and parasites as they go about the their daily lives. Recent integration of high-resolution Global Positioning System and other sensors into miniaturized tracking tags has dramatically improved our ability to describe animal movement. This has created opportunities and challenges that parallel big data transformations in other fields and has rapidly advanced animal ecology and physiology. New analytical approaches, combined with remotely sensed or modeled environmental information, have opened up a host of new questions on the causes of movement and its consequences for individuals, populations, and ecosystems. Simultaneous tracking of multiple animals is leading to new insights on species interactions and, scaled up, may enable distributed monitoring of both animals and our changing environment.

Behavioral Response of Invertebrates to Experimental Simulation of Pre-Seismic Chemical Changes

Simple Summary

We exposed two invertebrates to hydrogen peroxide to mimic some of the conditions that occur before large earthquakes. Water fleas changed their position in an aquarium to avoid the hydrogen peroxide but earthworms appeared not to be affected and did not change position. We discuss this in the context of unusual animal behavior often seen before earthquakes.

Abstract

Unusual behavior before earthquakes has been reported for millennia but no plausible mechanism has been identified. One possible way in which animals could be affected by pre-earthquake processes is via stress activated positive holes leading to the formation of hydrogen peroxide at the rock water interface. Aquatic and fossorial animals could be irritated by H₂O₂ and move down the concentration gradient. Here, we carry out avoidance tests with hydrogen peroxide in two model organisms; Daphnia pulex and earthworms. Daphnia were found to move away from increasing concentrations of H₂O₂ but earthworms appeared unaffected. It is possible that earthworm swarming behavior, reported frequently before earthquakes, is caused by electric field shifts or another unknown mechanism, whereas zooplankton may be affected by increasing levels of H₂O₂.

Cows Come Down from the Mountains before the (Mw = 6.1) Earthquake Colfiorito in September 1997; A Single Case Study

The September-October 1997 seismic sequence in the Umbria-Marche regions of Central Italy has been one of the stronger seismic events to occur in Italy over the last thirty years, with a maximum magnitude of Mw = 6.1. Over the last three years, a collection of evidence was carried out regarding non-seismic phenomena, by interviewing local residents using a questionnaire. One particular observation of anomalous animal behaviour, confirmed by many witnesses, concerned a herd of cows, which descended from a mountain close to the streets of a village near the epicentre, a few days before the main shock. Testimonies were collected using a specific questionnaire including data on earthquake lights, spring variations, human diseases, and irregular animal behaviour. The questionnaire was compiled after the L'Aquila earthquake in 2009, and was based upon past historical earthquake observations. A possible explanation for the cows' behavior-local air ionization caused by stress-activated positive holes-is discussed.

Sexual experience enhances Drosophila melanogaster male mating behavior and success

Competition for mates is a wide-spread phenomenon affecting individual reproductive success. The ability of animals to adjust their behaviors in response to changing social environment is important and well documented. Drosophila melanogaster males compete with one another for matings with females and modify their reproductive behaviors based on prior social interactions. However, it remains to be determined how male social experience that culminates in mating with a female impacts subsequent male reproductive behaviors and mating success. Here we show that sexual experience enhances future mating success. Previously mated D. melanogaster males adjust their courtship behaviors and out-compete sexually inexperienced males for copulations. Interestingly, courtship experience alone is not sufficient in providing this competitive advantage, indicating that copulation plays a role in reinforcing this social learning. We also show that females use their sense of hearing to preferentially mate with experienced males when given a choice. Our results demonstrate the ability of previously mated males to learn from their positive sexual experiences and adjust their behaviors to gain a mating advantage. These experienced-based changes in behavior reveal strategies that animals likely use to increase their fecundity in natural competitive environments.

Frog Swarms: Earthquake Precursors or False Alarms?

Simple Summary

Media reports linking unusual animal behaviour with earthquakes can potentially create false alarms and unnecessary anxiety among people that live in earthquake risk zones. Recently large frog swarms in China and elsewhere have been reported as earthquake precursors in the media. By examining international media reports of frog swarms since 1850 in comparison to earthquake data, it was concluded that frog swarms are naturally occurring dispersal behaviour of juveniles and are not associated with earthquakes. However, the media in seismic risk areas may be more likely to report frog swarms, and more likely to disseminate reports on frog swarms after earthquakes have occurred, leading to an apparent link between frog swarms and earthquakes.

Abstract

In short-term earthquake risk forecasting, the avoidance of false alarms is of utmost importance to preclude the possibility of unnecessary panic among populations in seismic hazard areas. Unusual animal behaviour prior to earthquakes has been reported for millennia but has rarely been scientifically documented. Recently large migrations or unusual behaviour of amphibians have been linked to large earthquakes, and media reports of large frog and toad migrations in areas of high seismic risk such as Greece and China have led to fears of a subsequent large earthquake. However, at certain times of year large migrations are part of the normal behavioural repertoire of amphibians. News reports of “frog swarms” from 1850 to the present day were examined for evidence that this behaviour is a precursor to large earthquakes. It was found that only two of 28 reported frog swarms preceded large earthquakes (Sichuan province, China in 2008 and 2010). All of the reported mass migrations of amphibians occurred in late spring, summer and autumn and appeared to relate to small juvenile anurans (frogs and toads). It was concluded that most reported “frog swarms” are actually normal behaviour, probably caused by juvenile animals migrating away from their breeding pond, after a fruitful reproductive season. As amphibian populations undergo large fluctuations in numbers from year to year, this phenomenon will not occur on a yearly basis but will depend on successful reproduction, which is related to numerous climatic and geophysical factors. Hence, most large swarms of amphibians, particularly those involving very small frogs and occurring in late spring or summer, are not unusual and should not be considered earthquake precursors. In addition, it is likely that reports of several mass migration of small toads prior to the Great Sichuan Earthquake in 2008 were not linked to the subsequent M = 7.9 event (some occurred at a great distance from the epicentre), and were probably co-incidence. Statistical analysis of the data indicated frog swarms are unlikely to be connected with earthquakes. Reports of unusual behaviour giving rise to earthquake fears should be interpreted with caution, and consultation with experts in the field of earthquake biology is advised.

Biological Anomalies around the 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake

The April 6, 2009 L'Aquila earthquake was the strongest seismic event to occur in Italy over the last thirty years with a magnitude of M = 6.3. Around the time of the seismic swarm many instruments were operating in Central Italy, even if not dedicated to biological effects associated with the stress field variations, including seismicity. Testimonies were collected using a specific questionnaire immediately after the main shock, including data on earthquake lights, gas leaks, human diseases, and irregular animal behavior. The questionnaire was made up of a sequence of arguments, based upon past historical earthquake observations and compiled over seven months after the main shock. Data on animal behavior, before, during and after the main shocks, were analyzed in space/time distributions with respect to the epicenter area, evidencing the specific responses of different animals. Several instances of strange animal behavior were observed which could causally support the hypotheses that they were induced by the physical presence of gas, electric charges and electromagnetic waves in atmosphere. The aim of this study was to order the biological observations and thereby allow future work to determine whether these observations were influenced by geophysical parameters.

Nature of Pre-Earthquake Phenomena and their Effects on Living Organisms

Earthquakes occur when tectonic stresses build up deep in the Earth before catastrophic rupture. During the build-up of stress, processes that occur in the crustal rocks lead to the activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers. These charge carriers are able to flow out of the stressed rock volume into surrounding rocks. Such outflow constitutes an electric current, which generates electromagnetic (EM) signals. If the outflow occurs in bursts, it will lead to short EM pulses. If the outflow is continuous, the currents may fluctuate, generating EM emissions over a wide frequency range. Only ultralow and extremely low frequency (ULF/ELF) waves travel through rock and can reach the Earth surface. The outflowing charge carriers are (i) positively charged and (ii) highly oxidizing. When they arrive at the Earth surface from below, they build up microscopic electric fields, strong enough to field-ionize air molecules. As a result, the air above the epicentral region of an impending major earthquake often becomes laden with positive airborne ions. Medical research has long shown that positive airborne ions cause changes in stress hormone levels in animals and humans. In addition to the ULF/ELF emissions, positive airborne ions can cause unusual reactions among animals. When the charge carriers flow into water, they oxidize water to hydrogen peroxide. This, plus oxidation of organic compounds, can cause behavioral changes among aquatic animals.

Bio-Mimetics of Disaster Anticipation-Learning Experience and Key-Challenges

Simple Summary

Starting from 1700 B.C. in the old world and up to recent times in China there is evidence of earthquake prediction based on unusual metrological phenomena and animal behavior. The review tries to explore the credibility and to pin down the nature of geophysical phenomena involved. It appears that the concept of ancient Greek philosophers in that a dry gas, pneuma is correlated with earthquakes, is relevant. It is not the cause of earthquakes, as originally thought, but may be an accompanying phenomenon and occasional precursor. This would explain unusual animal behavior as well as thermal anomalies detected from satellites.

Abstract

Anomalies in animal behavior and meteorological phenomena before major earthquakes have been reported throughout history. Bio-mimetics or bionics aims at learning disaster anticipation from animals. Since modern science is reluctant to address this problem an effort has been made to track down the knowledge available to ancient natural philosophers. Starting with an archaeologically documented human sacrifice around 1700 B.C. during the Minoan civilization immediately before a large earthquake, which killed the participants, earthquake prediction knowledge throughout antiquity is evaluated. Major practical experience with this phenomenon has been gained from a Chinese earthquake prediction initiative nearly half a century ago. Some quakes, like that of Haicheng, were recognized in advance. However, the destructive Tangshan earthquake was not predicted, which was interpreted as an inherent failure of prediction based on animal phenomena. This is contradicted on the basis of reliable Chinese documentation provided by the responsible earthquake study commission. The Tangshan earthquake was preceded by more than 2,000 reported animal anomalies, some of which were of very dramatic nature. They are discussed here. Any physical phenomenon, which may cause animal unrest, must involve energy turnover before the main earthquake event. The final product, however, of any energy turnover is heat. Satellite based infrared measurements have indeed identified significant thermal anomalies before major earthquakes. One of these cases, occurring during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, India, is analyzed together with parallel animal anomalies observed in the Gir national park. It is suggested that the time window is identical and that both phenomena have the same geophysical origin. It therefore remains to be demonstrated that energy can be released locally before major earthquake events. It is shown that by considering appropriate geophysical feedback processes, this is possible for large scale energy conversion phenomena within highly non-linear geophysical mechanisms. With satellite monitored infrared anomalies indicating possible epicenters and local animal and environmental observations immediately initiated, the learning experience towards an understanding of the phenomena involved could be accelerated.

Comment on the "Ground water chemistry changes before major earthquakes and possible effects on animals", by R. A. Grant, T. Halliday, W. P. Balderer, F. Leuenberger, M. Newcomer, G. Cyr and F. T. Freund. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 2011, 8, 1936-1956

Here, we suggest that electromagnetic emissions before rupture may be the mechanism for the explanation of abnormal behavior of animals before earthquakes.