Dispersal through stream networks: modelling climate-driven range expansions of fishes

Congruence, but no cascade-Pelagic biodiversity across three trophic levels in Nordic lakes

Covariation in species richness and community structure across taxonomical groups (cross-taxon congruence) has practical consequences for the identification of biodiversity surrogates and proxies, as well as theoretical ramifications for understanding the mechanisms maintaining and sustaining biodiversity. We found there to exist a high cross-taxon congruence between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish in 73 large Scandinavian lakes across a 750 km longitudinal transect. The fraction of the total diversity variation explained by local environment alone was small for all trophic levels while a substantial fraction could be explained by spatial gradient variables. Almost half of the explained variation could not be resolved between local and spatial factors, possibly due to confounding issues between longitude and landscape productivity. There is strong consensus that the longitudinal gradient found in the regional fish community results from postglacial dispersal limitations, while there is much less evidence for the species richness and community structure gradients at lower trophic levels being directly affected by dispersal limitation over the same time scale. We found strong support for bidirectional interactions between fish and zooplankton species richness, while corresponding interactions between phytoplankton and zooplankton richness were much weaker. Both the weakening of the linkage at lower trophic levels and the bidirectional nature of the interaction indicates that the underlying mechanism must be qualitatively different from a trophic cascade.

Holocene extinctions of a top predator-Effects of time, habitat area and habitat subdivision

Loss of habitat and changes in the spatial configuration of habitats are major drivers of species extinctions, but the responses to these drivers differ between organisms. To advance theory on how extinction risk from different types of habitat alteration relates to species-specific traits, there is a need for studies of the long-term extinction dynamic of individual species. The goal of this study was to quantify how habitat area and the spatial configuration of habitats affect extinction rate of an aquatic top predator, the northern pike Esox lucius L. We recorded the presence/absence of northern pike in 398 isolated habitat fragments, each one consisting of a number of interconnected lakes. Time since isolation of the habitat fragments, caused by cut-off from the main dispersal source in the Baltic Sea, varied between 0 and 10,000 years. Using survival regression, we analysed how pike population survival was affected by time since isolation, habitat size and habitat subdivision. The approach builds on the assumptions that pike colonized all fragments before isolation and that current absences result from extinctions. We verified these assumptions by testing (a) if pike was present in the region throughout the entire time period when the lakes formed and (b) if pike typically colonize lakes that are formed today. We also addressed the likelihood that unrecorded anthropogenic introductions could bias our estimates of extinction rate. Our results supported the interpretation that current patterns of presence/absence in our study system are shaped by extinctions. Further, we found that time since isolation and fragment area had strong effects on pike population survival. In contrast, spatial habitat subdivision (i.e. if a fragment contained few large lakes or many small lakes) and other environmental covariates describing climate and productivity were unrelated to pike survival. Over all, extinction rate was high in young fragments and decreased sharply with increasing fragment age. Our study demonstrates how the link between extinction rate and habitat size and spatial structure can be quantified. More similar studies may help us find generalizations that can guide management of habitat size and connectivity.

Coexistence of pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta in Irish lakes

An environmental study of pike Esox lucius recorded their presence in 522 Irish lakes and that they coexisted with brown trout Salmo trutta in 97 of these. Statistical models, accounting for spatial non-independence among lakes, suggested that lakes with greater area, maximum depth and stream connectivity show a higher probability of coexistence. Introductions of E. lucius are likely to have negative effects on S. trutta stocks in small isolated lakes, but coexistence may be possible in larger systems.

The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Flowing Freshwater Systems

Ongoing increases in air temperature and changing precipitation patterns are altering water temperatures and flow regimes in lotic freshwater systems, and these changes are expected to continue in the coming century. Freshwater taxa are responding to these changes at all levels of biological organization. The generation of appropriate hydrologic and water temperature projections is critical to accurately predict the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems in the coming decade. The goal of this review is to provide an overview of how changes in climate affect hydrologic processes and how climate-induced changes in freshwater habitat can impact the life histories and traits of individuals, and the distributions of freshwater populations and biodiversity. Projections of biological responses during the coming century will depend on accurately representing the spatially varying sensitivity of physical systems to changes in climate, as well as acknowledging the spatially varying sensitivity of freshwater taxa to changes in environmental conditions.

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish

Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context-dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non-native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33-75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27-60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.

Temperature dependence of predation depends on the relative performance of predators and prey

The temperature dependence of predation rates is a key issue for understanding and predicting the responses of ecosystems to climate change. Using a simple mechanistic model, we demonstrate that differences in the relative performances of predator and prey can cause strong threshold effects in the temperature dependence of attack rates. Empirical data on the attack rate of northern pike (Esox lucius) feeding on brown trout (Salmo trutta) confirm this result. Attack rates fell sharply below a threshold temperature of +11°C, which corresponded to a shift in relative performance of pike and brown trout with respect to maximum attack and escape swimming speeds. The average attack speed of pike was an order of magnitude lower than the escape speed of brown trout at 5°C, but approximately equal at temperatures above 11°C. Thresholds in the temperature dependence of ecological rates can create tipping points in the responses of ecosystems to increasing temperatures. Thus, identifying thresholds is crucial when predicting future effects of climate warming.

Fish introductions reveal the temperature dependence of species interactions

A major area of current research is to understand how climate change will impact species interactions and ultimately biodiversity. A variety of environmental conditions are rapidly changing owing to climate warming, and these conditions often affect both the strength and outcome of species interactions. We used fish distributions and replicated fish introductions to investigate environmental conditions influencing the coexistence of two fishes in Swedish lakes: brown trout (Salmo trutta) and pike (Esox lucius). A logistic regression model of brown trout and pike coexistence showed that these species coexist in large lakes (more than 4.5 km(2)), but not in small, warm lakes (annual air temperature more than 0.9-1.5°C). We then explored how climate change will alter coexistence by substituting climate scenarios for 2091-2100 into our model. The model predicts that brown trout will be extirpated from approximately half of the lakes where they presently coexist with pike and from nearly all 9100 lakes where pike are predicted to invade. Context dependency was critical for understanding pike-brown trout interactions, and, given the widespread occurrence of context-dependent species interactions, this aspect will probably be critical for accurately predicting climate impacts on biodiversity.

Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of native European crayfishes

Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal-limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate-suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate-suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague-transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization.

Ecosystem change and stability over multiple decades in the Swedish subarctic: complex processes and multiple drivers

The subarctic environment of northernmost Sweden has changed over the past century, particularly elements of climate and cryosphere. This paper presents a unique geo-referenced record of environmental and ecosystem observations from the area since 1913. Abiotic changes have been substantial. Vegetation changes include not only increases in growth and range extension but also counterintuitive decreases, and stability: all three possible responses. Changes in species composition within the major plant communities have ranged between almost no changes to almost a 50 per cent increase in the number of species. Changes in plant species abundance also vary with particularly large increases in trees and shrubs (up to 600%). There has been an increase in abundance of aspen and large changes in other plant communities responding to wetland area increases resulting from permafrost thaw. Populations of herbivores have responded to varying management practices and climate regimes, particularly changing snow conditions. While it is difficult to generalize and scale-up the site-specific changes in ecosystems, this very site-specificity, combined with projections of change, is of immediate relevance to local stakeholders who need to adapt to new opportunities and to respond to challenges. Furthermore, the relatively small area and its unique datasets are a microcosm of the complexity of Arctic landscapes in transition that remains to be documented.

Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River network, Oregon, U.S.A

Climate change will likely have profound effects on cold-water species of freshwater fishes. As temperatures rise, cold-water fish distributions may shift and contract in response. Predicting the effects of projected stream warming in stream networks is complicated by the generally poor correlation between water temperature and air temperature. Spatial dependencies in stream networks are complex because the geography of stream processes is governed by dimensions of flow direction and network structure. Therefore, forecasting climate-driven range shifts of stream biota has lagged behind similar terrestrial modeling efforts. We predicted climate-induced changes in summer thermal habitat for 3 cold-water fish species-juvenile Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, O. mykiss, and Salvelinus confluentus, respectively)-in the John Day River basin, northwestern United States. We used a spatially explicit statistical model designed to predict water temperature in stream networks on the basis of flow and spatial connectivity. The spatial distribution of stream temperature extremes during summers from 1993 through 2009 was largely governed by solar radiation and interannual extremes of air temperature. For a moderate climate change scenario, estimated declines by 2100 in the volume of habitat for Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout were 69-95%, 51-87%, and 86-100%, respectively. Although some restoration strategies may be able to offset these projected effects, such forecasts point to how and where restoration and management efforts might focus.

Future distribution of Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under climate change: effects of temperature, lake size and species interactions

Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961-1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95 % of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73 % of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.