Interacting effects of phenotypic plasticity and evolution on population persistence in a changing climate

Metabolic adjustments to winter severity in two geographically separated great tit (Parus major) populations

Understanding the potential limits placed on organisms by their ecophysiology is crucial for predicting their responses to varying environmental conditions. A main hypothesis for explaining avian thermoregulatory mechanisms is the aerobic capacity model, which posits a positive correlation between basal (basal metabolic rate [BMR]) and summit (Msum) metabolism. Most evidence for this hypothesis, however, comes from interspecific comparisons, and the ecophysiological underpinnings of avian thermoregulatory capacities hence remain controversial. Indeed, studies have traditionally relied on between-species comparisons, although, recently, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of intraspecific variation in ecophysiological responses. Therefore, here, we focused on great tits (Parus major), measuring BMR and Msum during winter in two populations from two different climates: maritime-temperate (Gontrode, Belgium) and continental (Zvenigorod, Russia). We tested for the presence of intraspecific geographical variation in metabolic rates and assessed the predictions following the aerobic capacity model. We found that birds from the maritime-temperate climate (Gontrode) showed higher BMR, whereas conversely, great tits from Zvenigorod showed higher levels of Msum. Within each population, our data did not fully support the aerobic capacity model's predictions. We argued that the decoupling of BMR and Msum observed may be caused by different selective forces acting on these metabolic rates, with birds from the continental-climate Zvenigorod population facing the need to conserve energy for surviving long winter nights (by keeping their BMR at low levels) while simultaneously being able to generate more heat (i.e., a high Msum) to withstand cold spells.

The sugar kelp Saccharina latissima I: recent advances in a changing climate

BACKGROUND

The sugar kelp Saccharina latissima is a Laminariales species widely distributed in the Northern Hemisphere. Its physiology and ecology have been studied since the 1960s, given its ecological relevance on western temperate coasts. However, research interest has been rising recently, driven mainly by reports of negative impacts of anthropogenically induced environmental change and by the increased commercial interest in cultivating the species, with several industrial applications for the resulting biomass.

SCOPE

We used a variety of sources published between 2009 to May 2023 (but including some earlier literature where required), to provide a comprehensive review of the ecology, physiology, biochemical and molecular biology of S. latissima. In so doing we aimed to better understand the species' response to stressors in natural communities, but also inform the sustainable cultivation of the species.

CONCLUSION

Due to its wide distribution, S. latissima has developed a variety of physiological and biochemical mechanisms to adjust to environmental changes, including adjustments in photosynthetic parameters, modulation of osmolytes and antioxidants, reprogramming of gene expression and epigenetic modifications, among others summarized in this review. This is particularly important because massive changes in the abundance and distribution of S. latissima have already been observed. Namely, presence and abundance of S. latissima has significantly decreased at the rear edges on both sides of the Atlantic, and increased in abundance at the polar regions. These changes were mainly caused by climate change and will therefore be increasingly evident in the future. Recent developments in genomics, transcriptomics and epigenomics have clarified the existence of genetic differentiation along its distributional range with implications in the fitness at some locations. The complex biotic and abiotic interactions unraveled here demonstrated the cascading effects the disappearance of a kelp forest can have in a marine ecosystem. We show how S. latissima is an excellent model to study acclimation and adaptation to environmental variability and how to predict future distribution and persistence under climate change.

Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life-history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation-based atmospheric forcing data. Length-at-age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree days calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2-year-old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1-year-old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size-based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size-based threshold will instead become 2-year-old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2-year-old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age- and size-at-seaward migration could have cascading effects on age- and size-at-maturity and reproductive output. Consequently, the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length-at-age model with minimal input requirements, fostering improved general understanding of phenotypic and demographic responses to climate change and management implications.

Evolution Under Thermal Stress Affects Escherichia coli's Resistance to Antibiotics

Exposure to both antibiotics and temperature changes can induce similar physiological responses in bacteria. Thus, changes in growth temperature may affect antibiotic resistance. Previous studies have found that evolution under antibiotic stress causes shifts in the optimal growth temperature of bacteria. However, little is known about how evolution under thermal stress affects antibiotic resistance. We examined 100+ heat-evolved strains of Escherichia coli that evolved under thermal stress. We asked whether evolution under thermal stress affects optimal growth temperature, if there are any correlations between evolving in high temperatures and antibiotic resistance, and if these strains' antibiotic efficacy changes depending on the local environment's temperature. We found that: (1) surprisingly, most of the heat-evolved strains displayed a decrease in optimal growth temperature and overall growth relative to the ancestor strain, (2) there were complex patterns of changes in antibiotic resistance when comparing the heat-evolved strains to the ancestor strain, and (3) there were few significant correlations among changes in antibiotic resistance, optimal growth temperature, and overall growth.

Food and light availability induce plastic responses in fire salamander larvae from contrasting environments

Phenotypic plasticity has been proposed as a mechanism facilitating the colonisation and adaptation to novel environments, such as caves. However, phenotypic plasticity in subterranean environments remains largely unexplored. Here, we test for plasticity in growth and development of fire salamander larvae (Salamandra salamandra) from subterranean and surface habitats, in response to contrasting food availability and light conditions. We hypothesized that: (i) low food availability and absence of light decrease larval growth and delay metamorphosis, (ii) light conditions mediate the effects of food availability on growth and time to metamorphosis, and (iii) larval response to contrasting light and food conditions is shaped by the habitat of origin. Our study showed that reduced food availability significantly delayed metamorphosis and slowed total length and body mass growth rates, while exposure to constant darkness slowed body mass growth rate. However, larvae slowed growth rates and increased time to metamorphosis without compromising size at metamorphosis. The effect of food availability on growth and time to metamorphosis did not change under different light conditions. Fire salamanders from subterranean and surface habitats responded differently only in relation to contrasting food availability conditions. Specifically, larvae from the surface habitat grew faster in high food conditions, while growth in larvae from the subterranean habitat was not influenced by food availability. Initial size also appeared to be an influential factor, since larger and heavier larvae grew slower, metamorphosed faster, and the size advantage was maintained in newly-metamorphosed juveniles. Overall, the results of our experiment suggest that plasticity and local adaptation favor the exploitation of aquatic subterranean habitats for breeding by fire salamanders, allowing successful development even under food shortage and day-length constraints, without compromising metamorphic size. Our findings have implications for conservation because they confirm that phenotypic plasticity plays a critical role in allowing fire salamanders to overcome altered environmental conditions.

Thermal tolerance limits and physiological traits as indicators of Hediste diversicolor's acclimation capacity to global and local change drivers

Global projections predict significant increases in ocean temperature and changes in ocean chemistry, including salinity variations by 2100. This has led to a substantial interest in the study of thermal ecophysiology, as temperature is a major factor shaping marine ectotherm communities. However, responses to temperature may be influenced by other factors such as salinity, highlighting the relevance of multiple stressor studies. In the present work, we experimentally evaluated the thermal tolerance of the marine ragworm Hediste diversicolor under predicted global change scenarios. Organisms were subjected to an experimental trial under control (24 °C), and two temperature treatment scenarios (ocean warming +3 °C - (27 °C) and heat wave +6 °C - (30 °C)), combined with salinity variations (20 and 30) in a full factorial design for 29 days. Environmental data from the field were collected during 2019 and 2020. At day 30 post exposure, upper thermal limits (Critical Thermal Maximum - CTMax), thermal safety margins (TSM) and acclimation capacity were measured. Higher acclimation temperatures led to higher thermal tolerance limits, confirming that H. diversicolor features some physiological plasticity, acclimation capacity and a positive thermal safety margin. This margin was greater considering in situ temperature data from 2019 than maximum temperatures for 2020 (CTMax > maximum habitat temperature-MHT). Moreover, smaller organisms displayed higher upper thermal limits suggesting that thermal tolerance is size dependent. Ragworms subjected to higher salinity also showed a higher CTMax than those acclimated to lower salinity. However, temperature and salinity showed an additive effect on CTMax, as no significant interaction was detected. We conclude that H. diversicolor can easily acclimate to increased water temperature, independently of salinity variations. Given the key role of ragworms in food webs in estuaries and coastal lagoons, substrate bioturbation and aquaculture, this information is relevant to support conservation actions, optimize culture protocols and identify thermal resistant strains.

Aquatic quillworts, Isoëtes echinospora and I. lacustris under acidic stress-A review from a temperate refuge

Quillworts (Isoëtes) represent highly specialized flora of softwater lakes, that is, freshwater ecosystems potentially sensitive to acidification. In this paper, we combine a review of previous studies and our new results to address unrecognized reproduction strategies of quillworts to overcome long-term environmental stresses. These strategies play an important role in the plant's ability to overcome atmospheric acidification of freshwaters, protecting the plants until their environment can recover. Environmental drivers of recovery of Isoëtes echinospora and I. lacustris were studied in two acidified lakes in the Bohemian Forest (Central Europe). Both populations survived more than 50 years of severe acidification, although they failed to recruit new sporelings. Their survival depended entirely on the resistance of long-living adult plants because the quillworts do not grow clonally. During the past two decades, a renewal of I. echinospora population inhabiting Plešné Lake has been observed, while no such renewal of I. lacustris, dwelling in Černé Lake, was evident, despite similar changes in water composition occurring in both lakes undergoing advanced recovery from acidification. Our in vitro experiments revealed that the threshold acidity and toxic aluminium concentrations for sporeling survival and recruitment success differed between I. echinospora (pH ≤ 4.0 and ≥300 μg L^-1 Al at pH 5) and I. lacustris (pH ≤ 5.0 and ≥100 μg L^-1Al at pH 5). The higher sensitivity of I. lacustris to both stressors likely stems from its year-long germination period and underlines the risk of exposure to chronic or episodic acidification in recovering lakes. By contrast, the shorter germination period of I. echinospora (2-3 months) enables its faster and deeper rooting, protecting this quillwort from periodic acidification during the next snowmelt. Our study brings novel insights into widely discussed environmental issues related to the long-term degradation of softwater lakes, which represent important hotspots of pan-European biodiversity and conservation efforts.

Experimental evidence for stronger impacts of larval but not adult rearing temperature on female fertility and lifespan in a seed beetle

Temperature impacts behaviour, physiology and life-history of many life forms. In many ectotherms, phenotypic plasticity within reproductive traits could act as a buffer allowing adaptation to continued global warming within biological limits. But there could be costs involved, potentially affecting adult reproductive performance and population growth. Empirical data on the expression of reproductive plasticity when different life stages are exposed is still lacking. Plasticity in key components of fitness (e.g., reproduction) can impose life-history trade-offs. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature variation and the resulting thermal stress is known to impact reproduction. So far, research on reproductive plasticity to temperature variation in this species has focused on males. Here, I explore how rearing temperature impacted female reproduction and lifespan in the bruchid beetle Callosobruchus maculatus by exposing them to four constant temperatures (17 °C, 25 °C, 27 °C and 33 °C) during larval or adult stages. In these experiments, larval rearing cohorts (exposed to 17 °C, 25 °C, 27 °C and 33 °C, from egg to adulthood) were tested in a common garden setting at 27 °C and adult rearing cohorts, after having developed entirely at 27 °C, were exposed to four constant rearing temperatures (17 °C, 25 °C, 27 °C and 33 °C). I found stage-specific plasticity in all the traits measured here: fecundity, egg morphological dimensions (length and width), lifespan and egg hatching success (female fertility). Under different larval rearing conditions, fecundity and fertility was drastically reduced (by 51% and 42%) at 17 °C compared to controls (27 °C). Female lifespan was longest at 17 °C across both larval and adult rearing: by 36% and 55% compared to controls. Collectively, these results indicate that larval rearing temperature had greater reproductive impacts. Integrating both larval and adult rearing effects, I present evidence that female fertility is more sensitive during larval development compared to adult rearing temperature in this system.

Predicting habitat suitability for Townsend's big-eared bats across California in relation to climate change

Effective management decisions depend on knowledge of species distribution and habitat use. Maps generated from species distribution models are important in predicting previously unknown occurrences of protected species. However, if populations are seasonally dynamic or locally adapted, failing to consider population level differences could lead to erroneous determinations of occurrence probability and ineffective management. The study goal was to model the distribution of a species of special concern, Townsend's big-eared bats (Corynorhinus townsendii), in California. We incorporate seasonal and spatial differences to estimate the distribution under current and future climate conditions. We built species distribution models using all records from statewide roost surveys and by subsetting data to seasonal colonies, representing different phenological stages, and to Environmental Protection Agency Level III Ecoregions to understand how environmental needs vary based on these factors. We projected species' distribution for 2061-2080 in response to low and high emissions scenarios and calculated the expected range shifts. The estimated distribution differed between the combined (full dataset) and phenologically explicit models, while ecoregion-specific models were largely congruent with the combined model. Across the majority of models, precipitation was the most important variable predicting the presence of C. townsendii roosts. Under future climate scenarios, distribution of C. townsendii is expected to contract throughout the state, however suitable areas will expand within some ecoregions. Comparison of phenologically explicit models with combined models indicates the combined models better predict the extent of the known range of C. townsendii in California. However, life-history-explicit models aid in understanding of different environmental needs and distribution of their major phenological stages. Differences between ecoregion-specific and statewide predictions of habitat contractions highlight the need to consider regional variation when forecasting species' responses to climate change. These models can aid in directing seasonally explicit surveys and predicting regions most vulnerable under future climate conditions.

The roles of divergent and parallel molecular evolution contributing to thermal adaptive strategies in trees

Local adaptation is a driver of biological diversity, and species may develop analogous (parallel evolution) or alternative (divergent evolution) solutions to similar ecological challenges. We expect these adaptive solutions would culminate in both phenotypic and genotypic signals. Using two Eucalyptus species (Eucalyptus grandis and Eucalyptus tereticornis) with overlapping distributions grown under contrasting 'local' temperature conditions to investigate the independent contribution of adaptation and plasticity at molecular, physiological and morphological levels. The link between gene expression and traits markedly differed between species. Divergent evolution was the dominant pattern driving adaptation (91% of all significant genes); but overlapping gene (homologous) responses were dependent on the determining factor (plastic, adaptive or genotype by environment interaction). Ninety-eight percent of the plastic homologs were similarly regulated, while 50% of the adaptive homologs and 100% of the interaction homologs were antagonistical. Parallel evolution for the adaptive effect in homologous genes was greater than expected but not in favour of divergent evolution. Heat shock proteins for E. grandis were almost entirely driven by adaptation, and plasticity in E. tereticornis. These results suggest divergent molecular evolutionary solutions dominated the adaptive mechanisms among species, even in similar ecological circumstances. Suggesting that tree species with overlapping distributions are unlikely to equally persist in the future.

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity is under stabilizing selection in Daphnia

The adaptive nature of phenotypic plasticity is widely documented. However, little is known about the evolutionary forces that shape genetic variation of plasticity within populations. Whether genetic variation in plasticity is driven by stabilizing or diversifying selection and whether the strength of such forces remains constant through time, remain open questions. Here, we address this issue by assessing the evolutionary forces that shape genetic variation in antipredator developmental plasticity of Daphnia pulex. Antipredator plasticity in D. pulex is characterized by the growth of a pedestal and spikes in the dorsal head region upon exposure to predator cue. We characterized genetic variation in plasticity using a method that describes the entire dorsal shape amongst >100 D. pulex strains recently derived from the wild. We observed the strongest reduction in genetic variation in dorsal areas where plastic responses were greatest, consistent with stabilizing selection. We compared mutational variation (Vm) to standing variation (Vg) and found that Vg/Vm is lowest in areas of greatest plasticity, again consistent with stabilizing selection. Our results suggest that stabilizing selection operates directly on phenotypic plasticity in Daphnia and provide a rare glimpse into the evolution of fitness-related traits in natural populations.

Mercury, legacy and emerging POPs, and endocrine-behavioural linkages: Implications of Arctic change in a diving seabird

Arctic species encounter multiple stressors including climate change and environmental contaminants. Some contaminants may disrupt hormones that govern the behavioural responses of wildlife to climatic variation, and thus the capacity of species to respond to climate change. We investigated correlative interactions between legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants (POPs), mercury (Hg), hormones and behaviours, in thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) (N = 163) breeding in northern Hudson Bay (2016-2018). The blood profile of the murres was dominated by methylmercury (MeHg), followed by much lower levels of sum (∑) 35 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and p,p'-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethylene (DDE), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) BDE-47, -99 and BDE-100; all other measured organochlorine pesticides and replacement brominated flame retardants had low concentrations if detected. Inter-annual variations occurred in MeHg, circulating triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4), and the foraging behaviours of the murres, identified using GPS-accelerometers. Compared to the 50-year mean date (1971-2021) for 50% of sea-ice coverage in Hudson Bay, sea-ice breakup was 1-2 weeks earlier (2016, 2017) or comparable (2018). Indeed, 2017 was the earliest year on record. Consistent with relationships identified individually between MeHg and total T3, and T3 and foraging behaviour, a direct interaction between these three parameters was evident when all possible interactions among measured chemical pollutants, hormones, and behaviours of the murres were considered collectively (path analysis). When murres were likely already stressed due to early sea-ice breakup (2016, 2017), blood MeHg influenced circulating T3 that in turn reduced foraging time underwater. We conclude that when sea-ice breaks up early in the breeding season, Hg may interfere with the ability of murres to adjust their foraging behaviour via T3 in relation to variation in sea-ice.

Within-population variability in coral heat tolerance indicates climate adaptation potential

Coral reefs are facing unprecedented mass bleaching and mortality events due to marine heatwaves and climate change. To avoid extirpation, corals must adapt. Individual variation in heat tolerance and its heritability underpin the potential for coral adaptation. However, the magnitude of heat tolerance variability within coral populations is largely unresolved. We address this knowledge gap by exposing corals from a single reef to an experimental marine heatwave. We found that double the heat stress dosage was required to induce bleaching in the most-tolerant 10%, compared to the least-tolerant 10% of the population. By the end of the heat stress exposure, all of the least-tolerant corals were dead, whereas the most-tolerant remained alive. To contextualize the scale of this result over the coming century, we show that under an ambitious future emissions scenario, such differences in coral heat tolerance thresholds equate to up to 17 years delay until the onset of annual bleaching and mortality conditions. However, this delay is limited to only 10 years under a high emissions scenario. Our results show substantial variability in coral heat tolerance which suggests scope for natural or assisted evolution to limit the impacts of climate change in the short-term. For coral reefs to persist through the coming century, coral adaptation must keep pace with ocean warming, and ambitious emissions reductions must be realized.

Temporal variation in climatic factors influences phenotypic diversity of Trochulus land snails

Organisms with limited dispersal capabilities should show phenotypic plasticity in situ to keep pace with environmental changes. Therefore, to study the influence of environmental variation on the phenotypic diversity, we chose land snails, Trochulus hispidus and T. sericeus, characterized by high population variability. We performed long-term field studies as well as laboratory and common garden experiments, which revealed that temporal environmental changes generate visible variation in shell size and shape of these snails. Many shell measurements of T. hispidus varied significantly with temperature and humidity in individual years. According to this, the first generation of T. hispidus, bred in controlled laboratory conditions, became significantly different in higher spire and narrower umbilicus from its wild parents. Interestingly, offspring produced by this generation and transplanted to wild conditions returned to the ‘wild’ flat and wide-umbilicated shell shape. Moreover, initially different species T. hispidus and T. sericeus transferred into common environment conditions revealed rapid and convergent shell modifications within one generation. Such morphological flexibility and high genetic variation can be evolutionarily favored, when the environment is heterogeneous in time. The impact of climate change on the shell morphometry can lead to incorrect taxonomic classification or delimitation of artificial taxa in land snails. These findings have also important implications in the context of changing climate and environment.

Coping with heatwaves: How a key species of seaweed responds to heat stress along its latitudinal gradient

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) frequency and intensity are increasing around the globe, affecting marine ecosystems' structure and functioning. Understanding how key marine species respond to these short-term extreme events is urgent for predicting damage to coastal ecosystems. Hypnea pseudomusciformis presents distribution in different floristic provinces on the Brazilian coast: tropical, transition and warm-temperate. Here, we evaluate the effects of simulated heatwaves on H. pseudomusciformis populations by measuring the changes in algal growth, pigment content, and photosynthesis. Based on data for the last four decades, we characterized the MHW patterns for each of the three collection sites. Perturbation levels were identified as average intensity heatwave (Δ +2 °C), maximum intensity heatwave (Δ +4 °C) and extreme intensity heatwave (Δ +6 °C), with an average duration of seven days. Based on growth rate data, corroborated with measurements of photosynthesis fluorescence and pigment contents. H. pseudomusciformis populations exhibit distinct tolerance and physiological responses to MHWs. The tropical and transition specimens were affected by Δ + 4 °C and Δ + 6 °C MHW scenarios, while the warm-temperate specimens was the only one to recover in all the MHW scenarios tested. These data are worrisome under a global warming scenario and an increase in MHWs, indicating that tropical and transition specimens of H. pseudomusciformis may be at risk of local extinction. This knowledge will be fundamental in driving any future management intervention or policy change for the conservation of marine ecosystems.

Escalating the conflict? Intersex genetic correlations influence adaptation to environmental change in facultatively migratory populations

Males and females are often subject to different and even opposing selection pressures. When a given trait has a shared genetic basis between the sexes, sexual conflict (antagonism) can arise. This can result in significant individual-level fitness consequences that might also affect population performance, whilst anthropogenic environmental change can further exacerbate maladaptation in one or both sexes driven by sexual antagonism. Here, we develop a genetically explicit eco-evolutionary model using an agent-based framework to explore how a population of a facultatively migratory fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta) adapts to environmental change across a range of intersex genetic correlations for migration propensity, which influence the magnitude of sexual conflict. Our modelled focal trait represents a condition threshold governing whether individuals adopt a resident or anadromous (sea migration) tactic. Anadromy affords potential size-mediated reproductive advantages to both males and females due to improved feeding opportunities at sea, but these can be undermined by high background marine mortality and survival/growth costs imposed by marine parasites (sea lice). We show that migration tactic frequency for a given set of environmental conditions is strongly influenced by the intersex genetic correlation, such that one sex can be dragged off its optimum more than the other. When this occurred in females in our model, population productivity was substantially reduced, but eco-evolutionary outcomes were altered by allowing for sneaking behaviour in males. We discuss real-world implications of our work given that anadromous salmonids are regularly challenged by sea lice infestations, which might act synergistically with other stressors such as climate change or fishing that impact marine performance, driving populations towards residency and potentially reduced resilience.

Combining ecological niche models with experimental seed germination to estimate the effect of climate change on the distribution of endangered plant species in the Brazilian Cerrado

Predicting the geographic distribution of plants that provide ecosystem services is essential to understand the adaptation of communities and conserve that group toward climate change. Predictions can be more accurate if changes in physiological characteristics of species due to those changes are included. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the different hierarchical levels of Apuleia leiocarpa (Vogel) J. F. Macbr. (Fabaceae). Therefore, we experimentally evaluate the effect of different temperatures on the initial development (vigor) and estimate the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of the species, using ecological niche approaches. For the experiment, we used 11 temperature intervals of 2 °C ranging from 21 to 41 °C. We used ecological niche modeling techniques (ENM) to predict the species' environmental suitability in future climate scenarios. The association between the experiment and niche models was obtained by testing the relationships of temperature increase on the species vigor and geographic distribution. This conceptual model to determine the direct and indirect effects of temperature was generated using the methodological framework of structural equation models. The experiment showed that the seeds had the highest growth at 31 °C. ENMs indicated that due to climate change, there is a tendency for the plant to migrate to regions with milder temperatures. However, such regions may be unsuitable for the plant since they do not have ideal temperatures to germinate, which may cause a drastic reduction in their availability in a future climate change scenario. The inclusion of seed germination through experimental research allowed us to detect an area that is less suitable for germination despite being climatically suitable for the species. Thus, research that integrates the effect of climate on the different stages of the organism's development is essential to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity.

Role of limiting dispersal on metacommunity stability and persistence

The role of dispersal on the stability and synchrony of a metacommunity is a topic of considerable interest in theoretical ecology. Dispersal is known to promote both synchrony, which enhances the likelihood of extinction, and spatial heterogeneity, which favors the persistence of the population. Several efforts have been made to understand the effect of diverse variants of dispersal in the spatially distributed ecological community. Despite that environmental change strongly affects the dispersal, the effects of controlled dispersal on the metacommunity stability and their persistence remain unknown. We study the influence of limiting the immigration using two-patch prey-predator metacommunity at both local and spatial scales. We find that the spread of the inhomogeneous stable steady states (asynchronous states) decreases monotonically upon limiting the predator dispersal. Nevertheless, at the local scale, the spread of the inhomogeneous steady states increases up to a critical value of the limiting factor, favoring the metacommunity persistence, and then starts decreasing for a further decrease in the limiting factor with varying local interaction. Interestingly, limiting the prey dispersal promotes inhomogeneous steady states in a large region of the parameter space, thereby increasing the metacommunity persistence at both spatial and local scales. Further, we show similar qualitative dynamics in an entire class of complex networks consisting of a large number of patches. We also deduce various bifurcation curves and stability conditions for the inhomogeneous steady states, which we find to agree well with the simulation results. Thus, our findings on the effect of the limiting dispersal can help to develop conservation measures for ecological communities.

Plasticity to ocean warming is influenced by transgenerational, reproductive, and developmental exposure in a coral reef fish

Global warming is expected to drive some ectothermic species beyond their thermal tolerance in upcoming decades. Phenotypic plasticity, via developmental or transgenerational acclimation, is a critical mechanism for compensation in the face of environmental change. Yet, it remains to be determined if the activation of beneficial phenotypes requires direct exposure throughout development, or if compensation can be obtained just through the experience of previous generations. In this study, we exposed three generations of a tropical damselfish to combinations of current-day (Control) and projected future (+1.5°C) water temperatures. Acclimation was evaluated with phenotypic (oxygen consumption, hepatosomatic index, physical condition) and molecular (liver gene expression) measurements of third-generation juveniles. Exposure of grandparents/parents to warm conditions improved the aerobic capacity of fish regardless of thermal conditions experienced afterwards, representing a true transgenerational effect. This coincided with patterns of gene expression related to inflammation and immunity seen in the third generation. Parental effects due to reproductive temperature significantly affected the physical condition and routine metabolic rate (oxygen consumption) of offspring, but had little impact on gene expression of the F3. Developmental temperature of juveniles, and whether they matched conditions during parental reproduction, had the largest influence on the liver transcriptional program. Using a combination of both phenotypic and molecular approaches, this study highlights how the conditions experienced by both previous and current generations can influence plasticity to global warming in upcoming decades.

Signatures of natural selection in a foundation tree along Mediterranean climatic gradients

Temperature and precipitation regimes are rapidly changing, resulting in forest dieback and extinction events, particularly in Mediterranean‐type climates (MTC). Forest management that enhance forests’ resilience is urgently required, however adaptation to climates in heterogeneous landscapes with multiple selection pressures is complex. For widespread trees in MTC we hypothesized that: patterns of local adaptation are associated with climate; precipitation is a stronger factor of adaptation than temperature; functionally related genes show similar signatures of adaptation; and adaptive variants are independently sorting across the landscape. We sampled 28 populations across the geographic distribution of Eucalyptus marginata (jarrah), in South‐west Western Australia, and obtained 13,534 independent single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) markers across the genome. Three genotype‐association analyses that employ different ways of correcting population structure were used to identify putatively adapted SNPs associated with independent climate variables. While overall levels of population differentiation were low (F_ST = 0.04), environmental association analyses found a total of 2336 unique SNPs associated with temperature and precipitation variables, with 1440 SNPs annotated to genic regions. Considerable allelic turnover was identified for SNPs associated with temperature seasonality and mean precipitation of the warmest quarter, suggesting that both temperature and precipitation are important factors in adaptation. SNPs with similar gene functions had analogous allelic turnover along climate gradients, while SNPs among temperature and precipitation variables had uncorrelated patterns of adaptation. These contrasting patterns provide evidence that there may be standing genomic variation adapted to current climate gradients, providing the basis for adaptive management strategies to bolster forest resilience in the future.

Applying genomics in assisted migration under climate change: Framework, empirical applications, and case studies

The rate of global climate change is projected to outpace the ability of many natural populations and species to adapt. Assisted migration (AM), which is defined as the managed movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges, is a conservation option to improve species' adaptive capacity and facilitate persistence. Although conservation biologists have long been using genetic tools to increase or maintain diversity of natural populations, genomic techniques could add extra benefit in AM that include selectively neutral and adaptive regions of the genome. In this review, we first propose a framework along with detailed procedures to aid collaboration among scientists, agencies, and local and regional managers during the decision-making process of genomics-guided AM. We then summarize the genomic approaches for applying AM, followed by a literature search of existing incorporation of genomics in AM across taxa. Our literature search initially identified 729 publications, but after filtering returned only 50 empirical studies that were either directly applied or considered genomics in AM related to climate change across taxa of plants, terrestrial animals, and aquatic animals; 42 studies were in plants. This demonstrated limited application of genomic methods in AM in organisms other than plants, so we provide further case studies as two examples to demonstrate the negative impact of climate change on non-model species and how genomics could be applied in AM. With the rapidly developing sequencing technology and accumulating genomic data, we expect to see more successful applications of genomics in AM, and more broadly, in the conservation of biodiversity.

Phenotypic Plasticity and Local Adaptation of Leaf Cuticular Waxes Favor Perennial Alpine Herbs under Climate Change

Six perennial herbs (Plantago asiatica, Polygonum viviparum, Anaphalis lactea, Kobresia humilis, Leontopodium nanum and Potentilla chinensis) widely distributed in alpine meadows were reciprocally transplanted at two sites in eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Hongyuan (3434 m, 2.97 °C, 911 mm) and Qilian (3701 m, 2.52 °C, 472 mm), aiming to evaluate the responses of alpine plants to changing environments. When plants were transplanted from Hongyuan to Qilian, most plant species showed a decrease of total wax coverage in first year and reverse trend was observed for some plant species in second year. However, when plants were transplanted from Qilian to Hongyuan, the response of total wax coverage differed greatly between plant species. When compared with those in first year, plasticity index of average chain length of alkane decreased whereas carbon preference index of alkane increased at both Hongyuan and Qilian in second year. The total wax coverage differed between local and transplanted plants, suggesting both environmental and genetic factors controlled the wax depositions. Structural equation modeling indicated that co-variations existed between leaf cuticular waxes and leaf functional traits. These results suggest that alpine herbs adjust both wax depositions and chain length distributions to adapt to changing environment, showing climate adaptations.

Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Species- and population-specific responses to their environment may depend to a large extent on the spatial variation in life-history traits and in demographic processes of local population dynamics. Yet, those parameters and their variability remain largely unknown for many cold-adapted species, which are exposed to particularly rapid rates of environmental change. Here, we compared the demographic traits and dynamics for an emblematic bird species of European mountain ecosystems, the ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus). Using integrated population models fitted in a Bayesian framework, we estimated the survival probability, productivity and immigration of two populations from the Western European Alps, in France (over 11 years) and Switzerland (over 6 years). Juvenile apparent survival was lower and immigration rate higher in the Swiss compared to the French population, with the temporal variation in population growth rate driven by different demographic processes. Yet, when compared to populations in the northwestern part of the range, in Scotland, these two Alpine populations both showed a much lower productivity and higher adult survival, indicating a slower life-history strategy. Our results suggest that demographic characteristics can substantially vary across the discontinuous range of this passerine species, essentially due to contrasted, possibly locally evolved life-history strategies. This study therefore raises the question of whether flexibility in life-history traits is widespread among boreo-alpine species and if it might provide adaptive potential for coping with current environmental change.

Climate change impacts on seabirds and marine mammals: The importance of study duration, thermal tolerance and generation time

Understanding climate change impacts on top predators is fundamental to marine biodiversity conservation, due to their increasingly threatened populations and their importance in marine ecosystems. We conducted a systematic review of the effects of climate change (prolonged, directional change) and climate variability on seabirds and marine mammals. We extracted data from 484 studies (4808 published studies were reviewed), comprising 2215 observations on demography, phenology, distribution, diet, behaviour, body condition and physiology. The likelihood of concluding that climate change had an impact increased with study duration. However, the temporal thresholds for the effects of climate change to be discernibly varied from 10 to 29 years depending on the species, the biological response and the oceanic study region. Species with narrow thermal ranges and relatively long generation times were more often reported to be affected by climate change. This provides an important framework for future assessments, with guidance on response- and region-specific temporal dimensions that need to be considered when reporting effects of climate change. Finally, we found that tropical regions and non-breeding life stages were poorly covered in the literature, a concern that should be addressed to enable a better understanding of the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change.

Constraints and Opportunities for the Evolution of Metamorphic Organisms in a Changing Climate

We argue that developmental hormones facilitate the evolution of novel phenotypic innovations and timing of life history events by genetic accommodation. Within an individual’s life cycle, metamorphic hormones respond readily to environmental conditions and alter adult phenotypes. Across generations, the many effects of hormones can bias and at times constrain the evolution of traits during metamorphosis; yet, hormonal systems can overcome constraints through shifts in timing of, and acquisition of tissue specific responses to, endocrine regulation. Because of these actions of hormones, metamorphic hormones can shape the evolution of metamorphic organisms. We present a model called a developmental goblet, which provides a visual representation of how metamorphic organisms might evolve. In addition, because developmental hormones often respond to environmental changes, we discuss how endocrine regulation of postembryonic development may impact how organisms evolve in response to climate change. Thus, we propose that developmental hormones may provide a mechanistic link between climate change and organismal adaptation.

Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models

Human impacts on the natural world often generate environmental trends that can have detrimental effects on distributions of phenotypic traits. We do not have a good understanding of how deteriorating environments might impact evolutionary trajectories across multiple generations, even though effects of environmental trends are often significant in the statistical quantitative genetic analyses of phenotypic trait data that are used to estimate additive genetic (co)variances. These environmental trends capture reaction norms, where the same (average) genotype expresses different phenotypic trait values in different environments. Not incorporated into the predictive models typically parameterised from statistical analyses to predict evolution, such as the breeder's equation. We describe how these environmental effects can be incorporated into multi-generational, evolutionarily explicit, structured population models before exploring how these effects can influence evolutionary dynamics. The paper is primarily a description of the modelling approach, but we also show how incorporation into models of the types of environmental trends that human activity has generated can have considerable impacts on the evolutionary dynamics that are predicted.

Antibiotics Shift the Temperature Response Curve of Escherichia coli Growth

Temperature variation-through time and across climatic gradients-affects individuals, populations, and communities. Yet how the thermal response of biological systems is altered by environmental stressors is poorly understood. Here, we quantify two key features-optimal temperature and temperature breadth-to investigate how temperature responses vary in the presence of antibiotics. We use high-throughput screening to measure growth of Escherichia coli under single and pairwise combinations of 12 antibiotics across seven temperatures that range from 22°C to 46°C. We find that antibiotic stress often results in considerable changes in the optimal temperature for growth and a narrower temperature breadth. The direction of the optimal temperature shifts can be explained by the similarities between antibiotic-induced and temperature-induced damage to the physiology of the bacterium. We also find that the effects of pairs of stressors in the temperature response can often be explained by just one antibiotic out of the pair. Our study has implications for a general understanding of how ecological systems adapt and evolve to environmental changes. IMPORTANCE The growth of living organisms varies with temperature. This dependence is described by a temperature response curve that is described by an optimal temperature where growth is maximized and a temperature range (termed breadth) across which the organism can grow. Because an organism's temperature response evolves or acclimates to its environment, it is often assumed to change over only evolutionary or developmental timescales. Counter to this, we show here that antibiotics can quickly (over hours) change the optimal growth temperature and temperature breadth for the bacterium Escherichia coli. Moreover, our results suggest a shared-damage hypothesis: when an antibiotic damages similar cellular components as hot (or cold) temperatures do, this shared damage will combine and compound to more greatly reduce growth when that antibiotic is administered at hot (or cold) temperatures. This hypothesis could potentially also explain how temperature responses are modified by stressors other than antibiotics.

Plastic responses to hot temperatures homogenize riparian leaf litter, speed decomposition, and reduce detritivores

Efforts to maintain the function of critical ecosystems under climate change often begin with foundation species. In the southwestern United States, cottonwood trees support diverse communities in riparian ecosystems that are threatened by rising temperatures. Genetic variation within cottonwoods shapes communities and ecosystems, but these effects may be modified by phenotypic plasticity, where genotype traits change in response to environmental conditions. Here, we investigated plasticity in Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) leaf litter traits as well as the consequences of plasticity for riparian ecosystems. We used three common gardens each planted with genotypes from six genetically divergent populations spanning a 12°C temperature gradient, and a decomposition experiment in a common stream environment. We found that leaf litter area, specific leaf area, and carbon to nitrogen ratio (C:N) were determined by interactions between genetics and growing environment, as was the subsequent rate of litter decomposition. Most of the genetic variation in leaf litter traits appeared among rather than within source populations with distinct climate histories. Source populations from hotter climates generally produced litter that decomposed more quickly, but plasticity varied the magnitude of this effect. We also found that hotter growing conditions reduced the variation in litter traits produced across genotypes, homogenizing the litter inputs to riparian ecosystems. All genotypes in the hottest garden produced comparatively small leaves that decomposed quickly and supported lower abundances of aquatic invertebrates, whereas the same genotypes in the coldest garden produced litter with distinct morphologies and decomposition rates. Our results suggest that plastic responses to climate stress may constrict the expression of genetic variation in predictable ways that impact communities and ecosystems. Understanding these interactions between genetic and environmental variation is critical to our ability to plan for the role of foundation species when managing and restoring riparian ecosystems in a warming world.

Additive and non-additive effects of day and night temperatures on thermally plastic traits in a model for adaptive seasonal plasticity

Developmental plasticity can match organismal phenotypes to ecological conditions, helping populations to deal with the environmental heterogeneity of alternating seasons. In contrast to natural situations, experimental studies of plasticity often use environmental conditions that are held constant during development. To explore potential interactions between day and night temperatures, we tested effects of circadian temperature fluctuations on thermally plastic traits in a seasonally plastic butterfly, Bicyclus anynana. Comparing phenotypes for four treatments corresponding to a full-factorial analysis of cooler and warmer temperatures, we found evidence of significant interaction effects between day and night temperatures. We then focused on comparing phenotypes between individuals reared under two types of temperature fluctuations (warmer days with cooler nights, and cooler days with warmer nights) and individuals reared under a constant temperature of the same daily mean. We found evidence of additive-like effects (for body size), and different types of dominance-like effects, with one particular period of the light cycle (for development time) or one particular extreme temperature (for eyespot size) having a larger impact on phenotype. Differences between thermally plastic traits, which together underlie alternative seasonal strategies for survival and reproduction, revealed their independent responses to temperature. This study underscores the value of studying how organisms integrate complex environmental information toward a complete understanding of natural phenotypic variation and of the impact of environmental change thereon.

Phenotypic plasticity is not a cline: Thermal physiology of an intertidal barnacle over 20° of latitude

Our understanding of the plastic and evolutionary potential of ectothermic organisms and their populational impacts in the face of rapid global change remains limited. Studies attempting on the relationship between the magnitude of thermal variability across latitude and the degree of phenotypic plasticity exhibited by marine ectotherms are inconclusive. We state that the latter arises from the narrow range of thermal variability captured by the limited span of the latitudinal gradients studied to date. Using a mechanistic ecophysiological approach and a satellite-based assessment of the relevant environmental variables (i.e. temperature and food availability), we studied individuals of the intertidal barnacle Jehlius cirratus from seven local populations widely spread along the Humboldt current system that spanning two biogeographic regions. At the same time, we synthesized published information on the local abundance of our study species across a total of 76 sites representing 20° of latitude, and spanning from 18 to 42°S. We examined the effects of latitude and environmental variability on metabolic rate plasticity, thermal tolerance (thermal breadth and thermal safety margins) and their impacts on the abundance of this widespread marine invertebrate. We demonstrate that the phenotypic plasticity of metabolic rate in J. cirratus populations is not related to latitude. In turn, thermal breadth is explained by the temperature variability each population experiences. Furthermore, we found clinal variation with a poleward decrease of the critical thermal minimum, suggesting that episodic extreme low temperatures represent a ubiquitous selective force on the lower thermal limit for ectotherms. Across our study gradient, plasticity patterns indicate that populations at the equatorial extreme are more vulnerable to a warming climate, while populations located in the biogeographic transitional zone (i.e. high environmental heterogeneity), on the centre of the gradient, display higher levels of phenotypic plasticity and may represent a genetic buffer for the effects of ocean warming. Together, our results suggest the existence of a fitness trade-off involving the metabolic cost of plasticity and population density that is evident only across the vast latitudinal gradient examined.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

The Importance of Eco-evolutionary Potential in the Anthropocene

Humans are dominant global drivers of ecological and evolutionary change, rearranging ecosystems and natural selection. In the present article, we show increasing evidence that human activity also plays a disproportionate role in shaping the eco-evolutionary potential of systems—the likelihood of ecological change generating evolutionary change and vice versa. We suggest that the net outcome of human influences on trait change, ecology, and the feedback loops that link them will often (but not always) be to increase eco-evolutionary potential, with important consequences for stability and resilience of populations, communities, and ecosystems. We also integrate existing ecological and evolutionary metrics to predict and manage the eco-evolutionary dynamics of human-affected systems. To support this framework, we use a simple eco–evo feedback model to show that factors affecting eco-evolutionary potential are major determinants of eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our framework suggests that proper management of anthropogenic effects requires a science of human effects on eco-evolutionary potential.

Plasticity in parental effects confers rapid larval thermal tolerance in the estuarine anemone Nematostella vectensis

Parental effects can prepare offspring for different environments and facilitate survival across generations. We exposed parental populations of the estuarine anemone, Nematostella vectensis, from Massachusetts to elevated temperatures and quantified larval mortality across a temperature gradient. We found that parental exposure to elevated temperatures resulted in a consistent increase in larval thermal tolerance, as measured by the temperature at which 50% of larvae die (LT50), with a mean increase in LT50 of 0.3°C. Larvae from subsequent spawns returned to baseline thermal thresholds when parents were returned to normal temperatures, indicating plasticity in these parental effects. Histological analyses of gametogenesis in females suggested that these dynamic shifts in larval thermal tolerance may be facilitated by maternal effects in non-overlapping gametic cohorts. We also compared larvae from North Carolina (a genetically distinct population with higher baseline thermal tolerance) and Massachusetts parents, and observed that larvae from heat-exposed Massachusetts parents had thermal thresholds comparable to those of larvae from unexposed North Carolina parents. North Carolina parents also increased larval thermal tolerance under the same high-temperature regime, suggesting that plasticity in parental effects is an inherent trait for N. vectensis Overall, we find that larval thermal tolerance in N. vectensis shows a strong genetic basis and can be modulated by parental effects. Further understanding of the mechanisms behind these shifts can elucidate the fate of thermally sensitive ectotherms in a rapidly changing thermal environment.

Genome-wide diversity and habitat underlie fine-scale phenotypic differentiation in the rainbow darter (Etheostoma caeruleum)

Adaptation to environmental change requires that populations harbor the necessary genetic variation to respond to selection. However, dispersal-limited species with fragmented populations and reduced genetic diversity may lack this variation and are at an increased risk of local extinction. In freshwater fish species, environmental change in the form of increased stream temperatures places many cold-water species at-risk. We present a study of rainbow darters (Etheostoma caeruleum) in which we evaluated the importance of genetic variation on adaptive potential and determined responses to extreme thermal stress. We compared fine-scale patterns of morphological and thermal tolerance differentiation across eight sites, including a unique lake habitat. We also inferred contemporary population structure using genomic data and characterized the relationship between individual genetic diversity and stress tolerance. We found site-specific variation in thermal tolerance that generally matched local conditions and morphological differences associated with lake-stream divergence. We detected patterns of population structure on a highly local spatial scale that could not be explained by isolation by distance or stream connectivity. Finally, we showed that individual thermal tolerance was positively correlated with genetic variation, suggesting that sites with increased genetic diversity may be better at tolerating novel stress. Our results highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation in understanding population vulnerability and stress response.

Evolutionary and Plastic Phenotypic Change Can Be Just as Fast as Changes in Population Densities

AbstractEvolution and plasticity can drive population-level phenotypic change (e.g., changes in the mean phenotype) on timescales comparable to changes in population densities. However, it is unclear whether phenotypic change has the potential to be just as fast as changes in densities or whether comparable rates of change occur only when densities are changing slow enough for phenotypes to keep pace. Moreover, it is unclear whether this depends on the mode of adaptation. Using scaling theory and fast-slow dynamical systems theory, we develop a method for comparing maximum rates of density and phenotypic change estimated from population-level time-series data. We apply our method to 30 published empirical studies where changes in morphological traits are caused by evolution, plasticity, or an unknown combination. For every study, the maximum rate of phenotypic change was between 0.5 and 2.5 times faster than the maximum rate of change in density. Moreover, there were no systematic differences between systems with different modes of adaptation. Our results show that plasticity and evolution can drive phenotypic change just as fast as changes in densities. We discuss the implications of our results in terms of the strengths of feedbacks between population densities and traits.

Adaptive strategies and driving factors of a montane riparian tree: Trait-specific mechanisms across latitude

Investigating the drivers of phenotypic and genetic divergence can reveal the underlying processes and strategies that species adopt in rapidly changing environments. However, knowledge of adaptive strategies and the underlying mechanisms is lacking for the majority of taxa, especially those living in habitats sensitive to climate change. Here, we investigated 20 populations of a Tertiary-relict tree species, Euptelea pleiospermum (Eupteleaceae), scattered in a mountain riparian habitat in China. We integrated genetic, growth, and reproductive traits, and evaluated the relative contributions of climatic and soil factors on genetic and functional trait divergence. The E. pleiospermum populations were divided into south and north genetic clusters, and there were significant differences in leaf density and seed mass of adult trees between the two. The spatial pattern of genetic divergence resulted from effects of both isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE), whereas the divergence of growth and reproductive traits resulted solely from IBE effects. Spatial distance and selection by temperature and soils played dominant roles in genetic divergence. Precipitation drove the spatial divergence of sprouting. Both divergence of leaf density and seed mass were prominently induced by genetic divergence, and the influences might be enhanced by temperature and soil nutrients. We infer that E. pleiospermum populations adopt a resource-conservative strategy with low growth rates and higher sprouting under flooding disturbance, with larger seeds for improved seedling recruitment at lower latitudes. In contrast, high growth rate and sexual reproduction with small seeds are strategies adopted by populations at higher latitudes. We conclude that sprouting reflects a plastic response to precipitation, and leaf density and seed mass reflect local adaption under selection by temperature and soil factors. The underlying mechanisms of species adaptation strategies were trait-specific. Temperature and soil conditions are likely the main ecological factors shaping plant divergence in montane riparian regions.

Similar foraging energetics of two sympatric albatrosses despite contrasting life histories and wind-mediated foraging strategies

Understanding the environmental and behavioral factors that influence how organisms maintain energy balance can inform us about their potential resiliency to rapid environmental changes. Flexibility in maintaining energy balance is particularly important to long-lived, central-place foraging seabirds that are constrained when locating food for offspring in a dynamic ocean environment. To understand the role of environmental interactions, behavioral flexibility and morphological constraints on energy balance, we used doubly labeled water to measure the at-sea daily energy expenditure (DEE) of two sympatrically breeding seabirds, Campbell (Thalassarche impavida) and grey-headed (Thalassarche chrysostoma) albatrosses. We found that species and sexes had similar foraging costs, but DEE varied between years for both species and sexes during early chick rearing in two consecutive seasons. For both species, greater DEE was positively associated with larger proportional mass gain, lower mean wind speeds during water take-offs, greater proportions of strong tailwinds (>12 m s^-1), and younger chick age. Greater proportional mass gains were marginally more costly in male albatrosses that already have higher wing loading. DEE was higher during flights with a greater proportion of strong headwinds for grey-headed albatrosses only. Poleward winds are forecasted to intensify over the next century, which may increase DEE for grey-headed albatrosses that heavily use this region during early chick rearing. Female Campbell albatrosses may be negatively affected by forecasted slackening winds at lower latitudes due to an expected greater reliance on less energy efficient sit-and-wait foraging strategies. Behavioral plasticity associated with environmental variation may influence future population responses to climate change of both species.

Genetic structure and life history are key factors in species distribution models of spiny lobsters

AIM

We incorporated genetic structure and life history phase in species distribution models (SDMs) constructed for a widespread spiny lobster, to reveal local adaptations specific to individual subspecies and predict future range shifts under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario.

LOCATION

Indo-West Pacific.

METHODS

MaxEnt was used to construct present-day SDMs for the spiny lobster Panulirus homarus and individually for the three genetically distinct subspecies of which it comprises. SDMs incorporated both sea surface and benthic (seafloor) climate layers to recreate discrete influences of these habitats during the drifting larval and benthic juvenile and adult life history phases. Principle component analysis (PCA) was used to infer environmental variables to which individual subspecies were adapted. SDM projections of present-day habitat suitability were compared with predictions for the year 2,100, under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario.

RESULTS

In the PCA, salinity best explained P. h. megasculptus habitat suitability, compared with current velocity in P. h. rubellus and sea surface temperature in P. h. homarus. Drifting and benthic life history phases were adapted to different combinations of sea surface and benthic environmental variables considered. Highly suitable habitats for benthic phases were spatially enveloped within more extensive sea surface habitats suitable for drifting larvae. SDMs predicted that present-day highly suitable habitats for P. homarus will decrease by the year 2,100.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating genetic structure in SDMs showed that individual spiny lobster subspecies had unique adaptations, which could not be resolved in species-level models. The use of sea surface and benthic climate layers revealed the relative importance of environmental variables during drifting and benthic life history phases. SDMs that included genetic structure and life history were more informative in predictive models of climate change effects.

Life in fluctuating environments

Variability in the environment defines the structure and dynamics of all living systems, from organisms to ecosystems. Species have evolved traits and strategies that allow them to detect, exploit and predict the changing environment. These traits allow organisms to maintain steady internal conditions required for physiological functioning through feedback mechanisms that allow internal conditions to remain at or near a set-point despite a fluctuating environment. In addition to feedback, many organisms have evolved feedforward processes, which allow them to adjust in anticipation of an expected future state of the environment. Here we provide a framework describing how feedback and feedforward mechanisms operating within organisms can generate effects across scales of organization, and how they allow living systems to persist in fluctuating environments. Daily, seasonal and multi-year cycles provide cues that organisms use to anticipate changes in physiologically relevant environmental conditions. Using feedforward mechanisms, organisms can exploit correlations in environmental variables to prepare for anticipated future changes. Strategies to obtain, store and act on information about the conditional nature of future events are advantageous and are evidenced in widespread phenotypes such as circadian clocks, social behaviour, diapause and migrations. Humans are altering the ways in which the environment fluctuates, causing correlations between environmental variables to become decoupled, decreasing the reliability of cues. Human-induced environmental change is also altering sensory environments and the ability of organisms to detect cues. Recognizing that living systems combine feedback and feedforward processes is essential to understanding their responses to current and future regimes of environmental fluctuations.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation’.

Documentation of en route mortality of summer chum salmon in the Koyukuk River, Alaska and its potential linkage to the heatwave of 2019

This paper documents a mass en route mortality event of adult summer chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) returning to the Koyukuk River, Alaska in the Yukon River basin. In response to reports from local communities, a small team of researchers (including the author) surveyed ca. 275 km of river on July 26 and 27, 2019 and counted 1,364 dead salmon. Although the total magnitude of mortality is unknown, counts from the survey certainly represent only a small fraction of the true number of fish that died. We sampled 73 carcasses to confirm death occurred prematurely prior to complete maturation and spawning, and to quantify sex and length. Visual inspection revealed a substantial fraction exhibited patterns of fungal growth consistent with secondary infections of skin lesions caused by the ubiquitous natural bacterial pathogen Flavobacterium columnare. Water temperatures during the survey averaged 17.1°C and the water was approximately 85% saturated with oxygen (ca. 8.5 mg/L), which likely contributed to the stress for upstream migrants. Evidence suggests size-selective en route mortality as female migrants that died were 2% and male migrants 5% shorter than individuals that survived to their spawning grounds on Henshaw Creek. This translates to very strong estimates of natural selection using standardized selection differentials, yet it is unclear whether selection acts on body size directly or indirectly through correlated phenotypic traits such as run timing. The mortality event likely underpins the below average returns of summer chum salmon to the Koyukuk River in 2019, suggesting an impact on spawner abundance. The future consequences of this, or potentially increasingly frequent, en route mortality events for population productivity and the extent to which genetic adaptation or adaptive phenotypic plasticity of migration behavior may facilitate persistence of these populations is unknown.

Age-dependent phenological plasticity in a wild bird

Life-history traits are often plastic in response to environmental factors such as temperature or precipitation, and they also vary with age in many species. Trait variation during the lifetime could thus be partly driven by age-dependent plasticity in these traits. We study whether plasticity of a phenological trait-the egg-laying date-with respect to spring temperature, varies with age, and explore whether this variation relates to changes in breeding success throughout the life cycle. We use data from a four-decade long-term monitoring of a wild population of blue tits in Corsica, to estimate age-dependent plasticity of reproductive phenology and annual reproductive success. We show that both laying date plasticity and annual reproductive success vary with age: young and old females are less plastic, and fledge fewer offspring, than middle-age females. Furthermore, in contrast to young and prime-age females, in old females fledging success does not depend on laying date. Phenological plasticity is a major mechanism for coping with rapid environmental variation. Our results suggest that understanding its role in adaptation to climate change and population persistence requires integrating the age structure of the population.

Small tropical forest trees have a greater capacity to adjust carbon metabolism to long-term drought than large canopy trees

The response of small understory trees to long-term drought is vital in determining the future composition, carbon stocks and dynamics of tropical forests. Long-term drought is, however, also likely to expose understory trees to increased light availability driven by drought-induced mortality. Relatively little is known about the potential for understory trees to adjust their physiology to both decreasing water and increasing light availability. We analysed data on maximum photosynthetic capacity (J_max , V_cmax ), leaf respiration (R_leaf ), leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf thickness and leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations from 66 small trees across 12 common genera at the world's longest running tropical rainfall exclusion experiment and compared responses to those from 61 surviving canopy trees. Small trees increased J_max , V_cmax , R_leaf and LMA (71, 29, 32, 15% respectively) in response to the drought treatment, but leaf thickness and leaf nutrient concentrations did not change. Small trees were significantly more responsive than large canopy trees to the drought treatment, suggesting greater phenotypic plasticity and resilience to prolonged drought, although differences among taxa were observed. Our results highlight that small tropical trees have greater capacity to respond to ecosystem level changes and have the potential to regenerate resilient forests following future droughts.