Evolutionary consequences of habitat loss for Pacific anadromous salmonids

Anthropogenic activities along the Lake Nyasa catchments alter the habitat and genetic diversity of a Lake Salmon, Opsaridium microlepis

The Lake Salmon, Opsaridium microlepis is an economically important fish along the Lake Nyasa. However, the species is under threat of extinction due to anthropogenic activities such as agriculture, mining, urbanization, and deforestation. Consequently, the fish species is currently regarded as a threatened species, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has red-listed the species due to an apparent decline in abundance. The current study assesses the potential impact of human activities on the genetic diversity of O. microlepis using partial mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) sequences and microsatellite loci. The results indicate that genetic diversity is lower in the areas affected by human activities compared to relatively pristine areas. The results from this study may suggest that human activities taking place in the catchments are likely to contribute to the alteration of the genetic diversity of O. microlepis species. Thus, immediate measure is required to control anthropogenic activities in the areas to protect the species and other aquatic organisms from possible threats of extinction.

Centrality to the metapopulation is more important for population genetic diversity than habitat area or fragmentation

Drift and gene flow affect genetic diversity. Given that the strength of genetic drift increases as population size decreases, management activities have focused on increasing population size through preserving habitats to preserve genetic diversity. Few studies have empirically evaluated the impacts of drift and gene flow on genetic diversity. Kryptolebias marmoratus, henceforth 'rivulus', is a small killifish restricted to fragmented New World mangrove forests with gene flow primarily associated with ocean currents. Rivulus form distinct populations across patches, making them a well-suited system to test the extent to which habitat area, fragmentation and connectivity are associated with genetic diversity. Using over 1000 individuals genotyped at 32 microsatellite loci, high-resolution landcover data and oceanographic simulations with graph theory, we demonstrate that centrality (connectivity) to the metapopulation is more strongly associated with genetic diversity than habitat area or fragmentation. By comparing models with and without centrality standardized by the source population's genetic diversity, our results suggest that metapopulation centrality is critical to genetic diversity regardless of the diversity of adjacent populations. While we find evidence that habitat area and fragmentation are related to genetic diversity, centrality is always a significant predictor with a larger effect than any measure of habitat configuration.

Multi-scale effects of habitat loss and the role of trait evolution

Habitat loss (HL) is a major cause of species extinctions. Although the effects of HL beyond the directly impacted area have been previously observed, they have not been modelled explicitly, especially in an eco-evolutionary context. To start filling this gap, we study a two-patch deterministic consumer-resource model, with one of the patches experiencing loss of resources as a special case of HL. Our model allows foraging and mating within a patch as well as between patches. We then introduce heritable variation in consumer traits related to resource utilization and patch use to investigate eco-evolutionary dynamics and compare results with constant and no trait variation scenarios. Our results show that HL in one patch can indeed reduce consumer densities in the neighbouring patch but can also increase consumer densities in the neighbouring patch when the resources are overexploited. Yet at the landscape scale, the effect of HL on consumer densities is consistently negative. Patch isolation increases consumer density in the patch experiencing HL but has generally negative effects on the neighbouring patch, with context-dependent results at the landscape scale. With high cross-patch dependence and coupled foraging and mating preferences, local HL can sometimes even lead to landscape-level consumer extinction. Eco-evolutionary dynamics can rescue consumers from such extinction in some cases if their death rates are sufficiently small. More generally, trait evolution had positive or negative effects on equilibrium consumer densities after HL, depending on the evolving trait and the spatial scale considered. In summary, our findings show that HL at a local scale can affect the neighbouring patch and the landscape as a whole, where heritable trait variation can, in some cases, alleviate the impact of HL. We thus suggest joint consideration of multiple spatial scales and trait variation when assessing and predicting the impacts of HL.

Phenological shifts and mismatch with marine productivity vary among Pacific salmon species and populations

Global climate change is shifting the timing of life-cycle events, sometimes resulting in phenological mismatches between predators and prey. Phenological shifts and subsequent mismatches may be consistent across populations, or they could vary unpredictably across populations within the same species. For anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), juveniles from thousands of locally adapted populations migrate from diverse freshwater habitats to the Pacific Ocean every year. Both the timing of freshwater migration and ocean arrival, relative to nearshore prey (phenological match/mismatch), can control marine survival and population dynamics. Here we examined phenological change of 66 populations across six anadromous Pacific salmon species throughout their range in western North America with the longest time series spanning 1951-2019. We show that different salmon species have different rates of phenological change but that there was substantial within-species variation that was not correlated with changing environmental conditions or geographic patterns. Moreover, outmigration phenologies have not tracked shifts in the timing of marine primary productivity, potentially increasing the frequency of future phenological mismatches. Understanding population responses to mismatches with prey are an important part of characterizing overall population-specific climate vulnerability.

Implications of Large-Effect Loci for Conservation: A Review and Case Study with Pacific Salmon

The increasing feasibility of assembling large genomic datasets for non-model species presents both opportunities and challenges for applied conservation and management. A popular theme in recent studies is the search for large-effect loci that explain substantial portions of phenotypic variance for a key trait(s). If such loci can be linked to adaptations, 2 important questions arise: 1) Should information from these loci be used to reconfigure conservation units (CUs), even if this conflicts with overall patterns of genetic differentiation? 2) How should this information be used in viability assessments of populations and larger CUs? In this review, we address these questions in the context of recent studies of Chinook salmon and steelhead (anadromous form of rainbow trout) that show strong associations between adult migration timing and specific alleles in one small genomic region. Based on the polygenic paradigm (most traits are controlled by many genes of small effect) and genetic data available at the time showing that early-migrating populations are most closely related to nearby late-migrating populations, adult migration differences in Pacific salmon and steelhead were considered to reflect diversity within CUs rather than separate CUs. Recent data, however, suggest that specific alleles are required for early migration, and that these alleles are lost in populations where conditions do not support early-migrating phenotypes. Contrasting determinations under the US Endangered Species Act and the State of California's equivalent legislation illustrate the complexities of incorporating genomics data into CU configuration decisions. Regardless how CUs are defined, viability assessments should consider that 1) early-migrating phenotypes experience disproportionate risks across large geographic areas, so it becomes important to identify early-migrating populations that can serve as reliable sources for these valuable genetic resources; and 2) genetic architecture, especially the existence of large-effect loci, can affect evolutionary potential and adaptability.

Quantification of thermal impacts across freshwater life stages to improve temperature management for anadromous salmonids

Water temperature is the major controlling factor that shapes the physiology, behaviour and, ultimately, survival of aquatic ectotherms. Here we examine temperature effects on the survival of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a species of high economic and conservation importance. We implement a framework to assess how incremental changes in temperature impact survival across populations that is based on thermal performance models for three freshwater life stages of Chinook salmon. These temperature-dependent models were combined with local spatial distribution and phenology data to translate spatial-temporal stream temperature data into maps of life stage-specific physiological performance in space and time. Specifically, we converted temperature-dependent performance (i.e. energy used by pre-spawned adults, mortality of incubating embryos and juvenile growth rate) into a common currency that measures survival in order to compare thermal effects across life stages. Based on temperature data from two abnormally warm and dry years for three managed rivers in the Central Valley, California, temperature-dependent mortality during pre-spawning holding was higher than embryonic mortality or juvenile mortality prior to smolting. However, we found that local phenology and spatial distribution helped to mitigate negative thermal impacts. In a theoretical application, we showed that high temperatures may inhibit successful reintroduction of threatened Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon to two rivers where they have been extirpated. To increase Chinook salmon population sizes, especially for the threatened and declining spring-run, our results indicate that adults may need more cold-water holding habitat than currently available in order to reduce pre-spawning mortality stemming from high temperatures. To conclude, our framework is an effective way to calculate thermal impacts on multiple salmonid populations and life stages within a river over time, providing local managers the information to minimize negative thermal impacts on salmonid populations, particularly important during years when cold-water resources are scarce.

Environmentally triggered shifts in steelhead migration behavior and consequences for survival in the mid-Columbia River

The majority of Columbia River summer-run steelhead encounter high river temperatures (near or > 20°C) during their spawning migration. While some steelhead pass through the mid-Columbia River in a matter of days, others use tributary habitats as temperature refuges for periods that can last months. Using PIT tag detection data from adult return years 2004-2016, we fit 3-component mixture models to differentiate between "fast", "slow", and "overwintering" migration behaviors in five aggregated population groups. Fast fish migrated straight through the reach on average in ~7-9 days while slow fish delayed their migration for weeks to months, and overwintering fish generally took ~150-250 days. We then fit covariate models to examine what factors contributed to the probability of migration delay during summer months (slow or overwintering behaviors), and to explore how migration delay related to mortality. Finally, to account for the impact of extended residence times in the reach for fish that delayed, we compared patterns in estimated average daily rates of mortality between migration behaviors and across population groups. Results suggest that migration delay was primarily triggered by high river temperatures but temperature thresholds for delay were lowest just before the seasonal peak in river temperatures. While all populations groups demonstrated these general patterns, we documented substantial variability in temperature thresholds and length of average delays across population groups. Although migration delay was related to higher reach mortality, it was also related to lower average daily mortality rates due to the proportional increase in reach passage duration being larger than the associated increase in mortality. Lower daily mortality rates suggest that migration delay could help mitigate the impacts of harsh migration conditions, presumably through the use of thermal refuges, despite prolonged exposure to local fisheries. Future studies tracking individual populations from their migration through reproduction could help illuminate the full extent of the tradeoffs between different migration behaviors.

Sea lice infections on wild Atlantic salmon and sea trout in the River Tamar, UK: a temporal study

Sea lice are amongst the most ecologically and economically damaging parasites of farmed salmonids globally. Spill-over from aquaculture can increase parasite pressure on wild fish populations, but quantifying this effect is challenging due to the relative paucity of data available on 'natural' salmonid louse burdens in the absence of aquaculture, particularly for Atlantic salmon Salmo salar. Here, wild Atlantic salmon and sea trout S. trutta were screened at the tidal limit of the River Tamar (UK) for the presence of sea lice. During 2013 and 2015, the prevalence of sea lice ranged from 41 (n = 361) to 60% (n = 275) and 55 (n = 882) to 58% (n = 800) in Atlantic salmon and sea trout, respectively. All sea lice collected were identified as Lepeophtheirus salmonis. Mean L. salmonis infection intensity across the study period was 5.84 (range: 1-66) in Atlantic salmon and 6.45 (range: 1-37) in sea trout. Infection intensity was positively correlated with the amount of external damage present for both fish species. Given that the fish were examined when returning to freshwater, the lice burdens obtained may represent an underestimate. Nevertheless, these data provide important baseline information on 'natural' sea louse infections in South West England, which has been proposed as a potential region for aquaculture development.

Quantifying thermal exposure for migratory riverine species: Phenology of Chinook salmon populations predicts thermal stress

Migratory species are particularly vulnerable to climate change because habitat throughout their entire migration cycle must be suitable for the species to persist. For migratory species in rivers, predicting climate change impacts is especially difficult because there is a lack of spatially continuous and seasonally varying stream temperature data, habitat conditions can vary for an individual throughout its life cycle, and vulnerability can vary by life stage and season. To predict thermal impacts on migratory riverine populations, we first expanded a spatial stream network model to predict mean monthly temperature for 465,775 river km in the western U.S., and then applied simple yet plausible future stream temperature change scenarios. We then joined stream temperature predictions to 44,396 spatial observations and life-stage-specific phenology (timing) for 26 ecotypes (i.e., geographically distinct population groups expressing one of the four distinct seasonal migration patterns) of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a phenotypically diverse anadromous salmonid that is ecologically and economically important but declining throughout its range. Thermal stress, assessed for each life stage and ecotype based on federal criteria, was influenced by migration timing rather than latitude, elevation, or migration distance such that sympatric ecotypes often showed differential thermal exposure. Early-migration phenotypes were especially vulnerable due to prolonged residency in inland streams during the summer. We evaluated the thermal suitability of 31,699 stream km which are currently blocked by dams to explore reintroduction above dams as an option to mitigate the negative effects of our warmer stream temperature scenarios. Our results showed that negative impacts of stream temperature warming can be offset for almost all ecotypes if formerly occupied habitat above dams is made available. Our approach of combining spatial distribution and phenology data with spatially explicit and temporally explicit temperature predictions enables researchers to examine thermal exposure of migrating populations that use seasonally varying habitats.

The Impacts of Dam Construction and Removal on the Genetics of Recovering Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Populations across the Elwha River Watershed

Dam construction and longitudinal river habitat fragmentation disrupt important life histories and movement of aquatic species. This is especially true for Oncorhynchus mykiss that exhibits both migratory (steelhead) and non-migratory (resident rainbow) forms. While the negative effects of dams on salmonids have been extensively documented, few studies have had the opportunity to compare population genetic diversity and structure prior to and following dam removal. Here we examine the impacts of the removal of two dams on the Elwha River on the population genetics of O. mykiss. Genetic data were produced from >1200 samples collected prior to dam removal from both life history forms, and post-dam removal from steelhead. We identified three genetic clusters prior to dam removal primarily explained by isolation due to dams and natural barriers. Following dam removal, genetic structure decreased and admixture increased. Despite large O. mykiss population declines after dam construction, we did not detect shifts in population genetic diversity or allele frequencies of loci putatively involved in migratory phenotypic variation. Steelhead descendants from formerly below and above dammed populations recolonized the river rapidly after dam removal, suggesting that dam construction did not significantly reduce genetic diversity underlying O. mykiss life history strategies. These results have significant evolutionary implications for the conservation of migratory adaptive potential in O. mykiss populations above current anthropogenic barriers.

On the Ecology and Distribution of Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in California's Eel River

The preservation of life history and other phenotypic complexity is central to the resilience of Pacific salmon stocks. Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) express a diversity of life-history strategies such as the propensity to migrate (anadromy/residency) and the timing and state of maturation upon return to freshwater (run-timing), providing an opportunity to study adaptive phenotypic complexity. Historically, the Eel River supported upwards of 1 million salmon and steelhead, but the past century has seen dramatic declines of all salmonids in the watershed. Here we investigate life-history variation in Eel River steelhead by using Rapture sequencing, on thousands of individuals, to genotype the region diagnostic for run-timing (GREB1L) and the region strongly associated with residency/anadromy (OMY5) in the Eel River and other locations, as well as determine patterns of overall genetic differentiation. Our results provide insight into many conservation-related issues. For example, we found that distinct segregation between winter and summer-run steelhead correlated with flow-dependent barriers in major forks of the Eel, that summer-run steelhead inhabited the upper Eel prior to construction of an impassable dam, and that both life history and overall genetic diversity have been maintained in the resident trout population above; and we found no evidence of the summer-run allele in the South Fork Eel, indicating that summer run-timing cannot be expected to arise from standing genetic variation in this and other populations that lack the summer-run phenotype. The results presented in this study provide valuable information for designing future restoration and management strategies for O. mykiss in Northern California and beyond.

Validation and association of candidate markers for adult migration timing and fitness in Chinook Salmon

Recent studies have begun to elucidate the genetic basis for phenotypic traits in salmonid species, but many questions remain before these candidate genes can be directly incorporated into conservation management. In Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a region of major effect for migration timing has been discovered that harbors two adjacent candidate genes (greb1L, rock1), but there has been limited work to examine the association between these genes and migratory phenotypes at the individual, compared to the population, level. To provide a more thorough test of individual phenotypic association within lineages of Chinook Salmon, 33 candidate markers were developed across a 220 Kb region on chromosome 28 previously associated with migration timing. Candidate and neutral markers were genotyped in individuals from representative collections that exhibit phenotypic variation in timing of arrival to spawning grounds from each of three lineages of Chinook Salmon. Association tests confirmed the majority of markers on chromosome 28 were significantly associated with arrival timing and the strongest association was consistently observed for markers within the rock1 gene and the intergenic region between greb1L and rock1. Candidate markers alone explained a wide range of phenotypic variation for Lower Columbia and Interior ocean-type lineages (29% and 78%, respectively), but less for the Interior stream-type lineage (5%). Individuals that were heterozygous at markers within or upstream of rock1 had phenotypes that suggested a pattern of dominant inheritance for early arrival across populations. Finally, previously published fitness estimates from the Interior stream-type lineage enabled tests of association with arrival timing and two candidate markers, which revealed that fish with homozygous mature genotypes had slightly higher fitness than fish with premature genotypes, while heterozygous fish were intermediate. Overall, these results provide additional information for individual-level genetic variation associated with arrival timing that may assist with conservation management of this species.

Glacier Retreat and Pacific Salmon

Glaciers have shaped past and present habitats for Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in North America. During the last glacial maximum, approximately 45% of the current North American range of Pacific salmon was covered in ice. Currently, most salmon habitat occurs in watersheds in which glacier ice is present and retreating. This synthesis examines the multiple ways that glacier retreat can influence aquatic ecosystems through the lens of Pacific salmon life cycles. We predict that the coming decades will result in areas in which salmon populations will be challenged by diminished water flows and elevated water temperatures, areas in which salmon productivity will be enhanced as downstream habitat suitability increases, and areas in which new river and lake habitat will be formed that can be colonized by anadromous salmon. Effective conservation and management of salmon habitat and populations should consider the impacts of glacier retreat and other sources of ecosystem change.

Effects of multiple stressors on the distribution of fish communities in 203 headwater streams of Rhine, Elbe and Danube

Fishes in European rivers are threatened by manifold stressors such as structural degradation, water pollution, overexploitation, land-use changes in the catchment, invasive species and global processes including climate change. Identifying main stressors in a stream/river system is of utterly importance for efficiently utilizing the scarce funds for conservation measures in order to achieve the best possible outcome. Within 203 headwater streams of Rhine, Elbe and Danube, we quantified the relative influence of different environmental stressors (water chemistry, food availability (macroinvertebrates), terrestrial predators) and anthropogenic stressors (land use, structural modification of streams) on fish assemblages at different spatial scales based on multivariate biota-environment models. In our analyses, the predictor variables percentage of impoundments, crop farming (especially erosion-prone crops such as maize) and ground sealing in the catchments, the number of wastewater treatment plants and biogas plants in the catchments as well as structural modifications of river banks were most often identified as stressors influencing fish community composition. However, the effects of the stressors varied between the investigated survey-area scales (two different catchments sizes and riparian strips) and regionally (entire study area, major drainage systems, river catchments, stream sizes, geographical subregions). In most cases, fish community composition was simultaneously affected by multiple stressors, underpinning the need for a more holistic and ecosystem-based approach in freshwater conservation and restoration.

Conservation and Management of Salmon in the Age of Genomics

Salmon were among the first nonmodel species for which systematic population genetic studies of natural populations were conducted, often to support management and conservation. The genomics revolution has improved our understanding of the evolutionary ecology of salmon in two major ways: (a) Large increases in the numbers of genetic markers (from dozens to 10⁴-10⁶) provide greater power for traditional analyses, such as the delineation of population structure, hybridization, and population assignment, and (b) qualitatively new insights that were not possible with traditional genetic methods can be achieved by leveraging detailed information about the structure and function of the genome. Studies of the first type have been more common to date, largely because it has taken time for the necessary tools to be developed to fully understand the complex salmon genome. We expect that the next decade will witness many new studies that take full advantage of salmonid genomic resources.

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.

Anthropogenic habitat alteration leads to rapid loss of adaptive variation and restoration potential in wild salmon populations

Phenotypic variation is critical for the long-term persistence of species and populations. Anthropogenic activities have caused substantial shifts and reductions in phenotypic variation across diverse taxa, but the underlying mechanism(s) (i.e., phenotypic plasticity and/or genetic evolution) and long-term consequences (e.g., ability to recover phenotypic variation) are unclear. Here we investigate the widespread and dramatic changes in adult migration characteristics of wild Chinook salmon caused by dam construction and other anthropogenic activities. Strikingly, we find an extremely robust association between migration phenotype (i.e., spring-run or fall-run) and a single locus, and that the rapid phenotypic shift observed after a recent dam construction is explained by dramatic allele frequency change at this locus. Furthermore, modeling demonstrates that continued selection against the spring-run phenotype could rapidly lead to complete loss of the spring-run allele, and an empirical analysis of populations that have already lost the spring-run phenotype reveals they are not acting as sustainable reservoirs of the allele. Finally, ancient DNA analysis suggests the spring-run allele was abundant in historical habitat that will soon become accessible through a large-scale restoration (i.e., dam removal) project, but our findings suggest that widespread declines and extirpation of the spring-run phenotype and allele will challenge reestablishment of the spring-run phenotype in this and future restoration projects. These results reveal the mechanisms and consequences of human-induced phenotypic change and highlight the need to conserve and restore critical adaptive variation before the potential for recovery is lost.

Changing central Pacific El Niños reduce stability of North American salmon survival rates

Pacific salmon are a dominant component of the northeast Pacific ecosystem. Their status is of concern because salmon abundance is highly variable--including protected stocks, a recently closed fishery, and actively managed fisheries that provide substantial ecosystem services. Variable ocean conditions, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), have influenced these fisheries, while diminished diversity of freshwater habitats have increased variability via the portfolio effect. We address the question of how recent changes in ocean conditions will affect populations of two salmon species. Since the 1980s, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have been more frequently associated with central tropical Pacific warming (CPW) rather than the canonical eastern Pacific warming ENSO (EPW). CPW is linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), whereas EPW is linked to the PDO, different indicators of northeast Pacific Ocean ecosystem productivity. Here we show that both coho and Chinook salmon survival rates along western North America indicate that the NPGO, rather than the PDO, explains salmon survival since the 1980s. The observed increase in NPGO variance in recent decades was accompanied by an increase in coherence of local survival rates of these two species, increasing salmon variability via the portfolio effect. Such increases in coherence among salmon stocks are usually attributed to controllable freshwater influences such as hatcheries and habitat degradation, but the unknown mechanism underlying the ocean climate effect identified here is not directly subject to management actions.

Portfolio conservation of metapopulations under climate change

Climate change is likely to lead to increasing population variability and extinction risk. Theoretically, greater population diversity should buffer against rising climate variability, and this theory is often invoked as a reason for greater conservation. However, this has rarely been quantified. Here we show how a portfolio approach to managing population diversity can inform metapopulation conservation priorities in a changing world. We develop a salmon metapopulation model in which productivity is driven by spatially distributed thermal tolerance and patterns of short- and long-term climate change. We then implement spatial conservation scenarios that control population carrying capacities and evaluate the metapopulation portfolios as a financial manager might: along axes of conservation risk and return. We show that preserving a diversity of thermal tolerances minimizes risk, given environmental stochasticity, and ensures persistence, given long-term environmental change. When the thermal tolerances of populations are unknown, doubling the number of populations conserved may nearly halve expected metapopulation variability. However, this reduction in variability can come at the expense of long-term persistence if climate change increasingly restricts available habitat, forcing ecological managers to balance society's desire for short-term stability and long-term viability. Our findings suggest the importance of conserving the processes that promote thermal-tolerance diversity, such as genetic diversity, habitat heterogeneity, and natural disturbance regimes, and demonstrate that diverse natural portfolios may be critical for metapopulation conservation in the face of increasing climate variability and change.

Evolutionary history of Pacific salmon in dynamic environments

Contemporary evolution of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) is best viewed in the context of the evolutionary history of the species and the dynamic ecosystems they inhabit. Speciation was complete by the late Miocene, leaving c. six million years for intraspecific diversification. Following the most recent glacial maximum, large areas became available for recolonization. Current intraspecific diversity is thus the product of recent evolution overlaid onto divergent historical lineages forged during recurrent episodes of Pleistocene glaciation. In northwestern North America, dominant habitat features have been relatively stable for the past 5000 years, but salmon ecosystems remain dynamic because of disturbance regimes (volcanic eruptions, landslides, wildfires, floods, variations in marine and freshwater productivity) that occur on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. These disturbances both create selective pressures for adaptive responses by salmon and inhibit long-term divergence by periodically extirpating local populations and creating episodic dispersal events that erode emerging differences. Recent anthropogenic changes are replicated pervasively across the landscape and interrupt processes that allow natural habitat recovery. If anthropogenic changes can be shaped to produce disturbance regimes that more closely mimic (in both space and time) those under which the species evolved, Pacific salmon should be well-equipped to deal with future challenges, just as they have throughout their evolutionary history.

A review of quantitative genetic components of fitness in salmonids: implications for adaptation to future change

Salmonine fishes are commonly subjected to strong, novel selective pressures due to anthropogenic activities and global climate change, often resulting in population extinction. Consequently, there is considerable interest in predicting the long-term evolutionary trajectories of extant populations. Knowledge of the genetic architecture of fitness traits is integral to making these predictions. We reviewed the published, peer-reviewed literature for estimates of heritability and genetic correlation for fitness traits in salmonine fishes with two broad goals in mind: summarization of published data and testing for differences among categorical variables (e.g., species, life history type, experimental conditions). Balanced coverage of variables was lacking and estimates for wild populations and behavioral traits were nearly absent. Distributions of heritability estimates were skewed toward low values and distributions of genetic correlations toward large, positive values, suggesting that significant potential for evolution of traits exists. Furthermore, experimental conditions had a direct effect on h² estimates, and other variables had more complex effects on h² and r_G estimates, suggesting that available estimates may be insufficient for use in models to predict evolutionary change in wild populations. Given this and other inherent complicating factors, making accurate predictions of the evolutionary trajectories of salmonine fishes will be a difficult task.

Special Issue: Evolutionary perspectives on salmonid conservation and management

This special issue of Evolutionary Applications comprises 15 papers that illustrate how evolutionary principles can inform the conservation and management of salmonid fishes. Several papers address the past evolutionary history of salmonids to gain insights into their likely plastic and genetic responses to future environmental change. The remaining papers consider potential evolutionary responses to climate warming, biological invasions, artificial propagation, habitat alteration, and harvesting. All of these papers consider how such influences might alter selective regimes, which should then favour plastic or genetic responses. Some of the papers then go on to document such responses, at least some of which are genetically based and adaptive. Despite the different approaches and target species, all of the papers argue for the importance of evolutionary considerations in the conservation and management of salmonids.

Performance of salmon fishery portfolios across western North America

Quantifying the variability in the delivery of ecosystem services across the landscape can be used to set appropriate management targets, evaluate resilience and target conservation efforts. Ecosystem functions and services may exhibit portfolio‐type dynamics, whereby diversity within lower levels promotes stability at more aggregated levels. Portfolio theory provides a framework to characterize the relative performance among ecosystems and the processes that drive differences in performance.

We assessed Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. portfolio performance across their native latitudinal range focusing on the reliability of salmon returns as a metric with which to assess the function of salmon ecosystems and their services to humans.

We used the Sharpe ratio (e.g. the size of the total salmon return to the portfolio relative to its variability (risk)) to evaluate the performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios across the west coast of North America. We evaluated the effects on portfolio performance from the variance of and covariance among salmon returns within each portfolio, and the association between portfolio performance and watershed attributes.

We found a positive latitudinal trend in the risk‐adjusted performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios that also correlated negatively with anthropogenic impact on watersheds (e.g. dams and land‐use change). High‐latitude Chinook salmon portfolios were on average 2·5 times more reliable, and their portfolio risk was mainly due to low variance in the individual assets. Sockeye salmon portfolios were also more reliable at higher latitudes, but sources of risk varied among the highest performing portfolios.

Synthesis and applications. Portfolio theory provides a straightforward method for characterizing the resilience of salmon ecosystems and their services. Natural variability in portfolio performance among undeveloped watersheds provides a benchmark for restoration efforts. Locally and regionally, assessing the sources of portfolio risk can guide actions to maintain existing resilience (protect habitat and disturbance regimes that maintain response diversity; employ harvest strategies sensitive to different portfolio components) or improve restoration activities. Improving our understanding of portfolio reliability may allow for management of natural resources that is robust to ongoing environmental change.

Portfolio theory provides a straightforward method for characterizing the resilience of salmon ecosystems and their services. Natural variability in portfolio performance among undeveloped watersheds provides a benchmark for restoration efforts. Locally and regionally, assessing the sources of portfolio risk can guide actions to maintain existing resilience (protect habitat and disturbance regimes that maintain response diversity; employ harvest strategies sensitive to different portfolio components) or improve restoration activities. Improving our understanding of portfolio reliability may allow for management of natural resources that is robust to ongoing environmental change.

Anthropogenic disturbance and evolutionary parameters: a lemon shark population experiencing habitat loss

The level of genetic variation in natural populations influences evolutionary potential, and may therefore influence responses to selection in the face of future environmental changes. By combining long-term monitoring of marked individuals with genetic pedigree reconstruction, we assessed whether habitat loss influenced genetic variation in a lemon shark (Negaprion brevirostris) population at an isolated nursery lagoon (Bimini, Bahamas). We also tracked changes in the strength and direction of natural selection. Contrary to initial expectations, we found that after the habitat loss neutral genetic variation increased, as did additive genetic variance for juvenile morphological traits (body length and mass). We hypothesize that these effects might result from philopatric behavior in females coupled with a possible influx of male genotypes from other nursery sites. We also found changes in the strength of selection on morphological traits, which weakened considerably after the disturbance; habitat loss therefore changed the phenotypes favored by natural selection. Because such human-induced shifts in the adaptive landscape may be common, we suggest that conservation biologists should not simply focus on neutral genetic variation per se, but also on assessing and preserving evolutionary parameters, such as additive genetic variation and selection.

State-dependent life history models in a changing (and regulated) environment: steelhead in the California Central Valley

We use a state dependent life history model to predict the life history strategies of female steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in altered environments. As a case study of a broadly applicable approach, we applied this model to the American and Mokelumne Rivers in central California, where steelhead are listed as threatened. Both rivers have been drastically altered, with highly regulated flows and translocations that may have diluted local adaptation. Nevertheless, evolutionary optimization models could successfully predict the life history displayed by fish on the American River (all anadromous, with young smolts) and on the Mokelumne River (a mix of anadromy and residency). The similar fitness of the two strategies for the Mokelumne suggested that a mixed strategy could be favored in a variable environment. We advance the management utility of this framework by explicitly modeling growth as a function of environmental conditions and using sensitivity analyses to predict likely evolutionary endpoints under changed environments. We conclude that the greatest management concern with respect to preserving anadromy is reduced survival of emigrating smolts, although large changes in freshwater survival or growth rates are potentially also important. We also demonstrate the importance of considering asymptotic size along with maximum growth rate.

Behaviourally mediated phenotypic selection in a disturbed coral reef environment

Natural and anthropogenic disturbances are leading to changes in the nature of many habitats globally, and the magnitude and frequency of these perturbations are predicted to increase under climate change. Globally coral reefs are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems to climate change. Fishes often show relatively rapid declines in abundance when corals become stressed and die, but the processes responsible are largely unknown. This study explored the mechanism by which coral bleaching may influence the levels and selective nature of mortality on a juvenile damselfish, Pomacentrus amboinensis, which associates with hard coral. Recently settled fish had a low propensity to migrate small distances (40 cm) between habitat patches, even when densities were elevated to their natural maximum. Intraspecific interactions and space use differ among three habitats: live hard coral, bleached coral and dead algal-covered coral. Large fish pushed smaller fish further from the shelter of bleached and dead coral thereby exposing smaller fish to higher mortality than experienced on healthy coral. Small recruits suffered higher mortality than large recruits on bleached and dead coral. Mortality was not size selective on live coral. Survival was 3 times as high on live coral as on either bleached or dead coral. Subtle behavioural interactions between fish and their habitats influence the fundamental link between life history stages, the distribution of phenotypic traits in the local population and potentially the evolution of life history strategies.

A review of quantitative genetic components of fitness in salmonids: implications for adaptation to future change

Salmonine fishes are commonly subjected to strong, novel selective pressures due to anthropogenic activities and global climate change, often resulting in population extinction. Consequently, there is considerable interest in predicting the long-term evolutionary trajectories of extant populations. Knowledge of the genetic architecture of fitness traits is integral to making these predictions. We reviewed the published, peer-reviewed literature for estimates of heritability and genetic correlation for fitness traits in salmonine fishes with two broad goals in mind: summarization of published data and testing for differences among categorical variables (e.g., species, life history type, experimental conditions). Balanced coverage of variables was lacking and estimates for wild populations and behavioral traits were nearly absent. Distributions of heritability estimates were skewed toward low values and distributions of genetic correlations toward large, positive values, suggesting that significant potential for evolution of traits exists. Furthermore, experimental conditions had a direct effect on h (2) estimates, and other variables had more complex effects on h (2) and r G estimates, suggesting that available estimates may be insufficient for use in models to predict evolutionary change in wild populations. Given this and other inherent complicating factors, making accurate predictions of the evolutionary trajectories of salmonine fishes will be a difficult task.