Clinical outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib as first-line therapy: a Korean multicenter study

Laparoscopic versus open liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Stratified analysis based on tumor burden score

The role of laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains debated. This study aimed to evaluate the short- and long-term outcomes of LLR vs. open liver resection (OLR) in ICC stratified by tumor burden score (TBS). ICC patients who underwent LLR or OLR were included from a multicenter database between July 2009 and October 2022. Patients were stratified into two cohorts based on whether the TBS was > 5.3. A 1:3 propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed between LLR and OLR in each cohort. Cox regression analysis was used to identify prognostic factors for ICC. A total of 626 patients were included in this study, 304 and 322 patients were classified into the low- and high-TBS groups, respectively. In the low-TBS group, after PSM, LLR was associated with less blood loss, lower CCI, fewer complications and shorter hospital stay (all p < 0.05). Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that LLR had better OS (p = 0.032). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that surgical procedure was an independent prognostic factor for ICC (HR: 0.445; 95% CI: 0.235-0.843; p = 0.013). In the high-TBS group, after PSM, LLR were associated with reduced blood loss, lower CCI, fewer complications and shorter hospital stay (all p < 0.05), while OS (p = 0.98) and DFS (p = 0.24) were similar between the two groups. TBS is an important prognostic factor for ICC. LLR is a safe and feasible option for ICC and leads to faster postoperative recovery. LLR can offer ICC a comparable and even better long-term prognosis than OLR.

Addition of Y-90 radioembolization increases tumor response and local disease control in hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving sorafenib

PURPOSE

To compare the treatment response and progression-free survival (PFS) in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who received sorafenib treatment either alone or combined with radioembolization (RE).

METHODS

Follow-up images of the patients treated within a multicenter phase II trial (SORAMIC) were assessed by mRECIST. A total of 177 patients (73 combination arm [RE + sorafenib] and 104 sorafenib arm) were included in this post-hoc analysis. Response and progression characteristics were compared between treatment arms. Survival analyses were done to compare PFS and post-progression survival between treatment arms. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to compare survival with factors known to influence PFS in patients with HCC.

RESULTS

The combination arm had significantly higher objective response rate (61.6% vs. 29.8%, p < 0.001), complete response rate (13.7% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.022), and a trend for higher disease control rate (79.2% vs. 72.1%, p = 0.075). Progression was encountered in 116 (65.5%) patients and was more common in the sorafenib arm (75% vs. 52.0%, p = 0.001). PFS (median 8.9 vs. 5.4 months, p = 0.022) and hepatic PFS were significantly better in the combination arm (9.0 vs. 5.7 months, p = 0.014). Multivariate analysis confirmed the treatment arm as an independent predictor of PFS.

CONCLUSION

In advanced HCC patients receiving sorafenib, combination with RE has an additive anticancer effect on sorafenib treatment resulting in a higher and longer tumor response. However, the enhanced response did not translate into prolonged survival. Better patient selection and superselective treatment could improve outcomes after combination therapy.

On-Treatment Albumin-Bilirubin Grade: Predictor of Response and Outcome of Sorafenib-Regorafenib Sequential Therapy in Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

In the RESORCE study, regorafenib after sorafenib therapy improved survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In total, 88 patients with unresectable HCC who received sorafenib-regorafenib sequential therapy were enrolled. The objective response rate and disease control rate were 19.3% and 48.9%, respectively, for regorafenib therapy (median duration: 8.1 months). Median progression-free survival (PFS) after regorafenib therapy was 4.2 months (95% CI: 3.2-5.1). The median overall survival (OS; from initiation of either sorafenib or regorafenib) was not reached in this cohort. According to multivariate Cox regression analyses, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade at the initiation of regorafenib therapy is an independent predictor of disease control, PFS, and OS. Moreover, the combination of ALBI grade 2 and an alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level of ≥20 ng/mL was an independent predictor of PFS (hazard ratio (HR): 3.088, 95% CI: 1.704-5.595; p < 0.001) for regorafenib therapy, and OS for both regorafenib (HR: 3.783, 95% CI: 1.316-10.88; p = 0.014) and sorafenib-regorafenib sequential (HR: 4.603, 95% CI: 1.386-15.29; p = 0.013) therapy. A combination of ALBI grade and AFP level can be used to stratify patients with unresectable HCC by PFS and OS probability for sorafenib-regorafenib sequential therapy.

Complete Response of Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Macroscopic Vascular Invasion and Pulmonary Metastasis to the Combination of Drug-Eluting Beads Transarterial Chemoembolization and Huaier Granule: A Case Report

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with macroscopic vascular invasion and distant metastasis is an advanced-stage disease with an extremely poor prognosis and low survival rate. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop novel therapeutic strategies to extend the lives of patients with advanced HCC.

Case Presentation

We represent a case of HCC with macroscopic vascular invasion and pulmonary metastasis responding dramatically to the combination treatment with drug-eluting beads transarterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE) and Huaier granule. A 64-year-old man with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-induced liver cirrhosis was diagnosed with advanced HCC involved renal vein and inferior vena cava accompanied by pulmonary metastasis. The patient received three cycles of on-demand DEB-TACE from 9th September 2016 to 22nd August 2017 and combined with Huaier granule 20 g three times a day orally. Eight months following the treatment, complete response occurred with regression of HCC and vascular thrombus and disappearance of pulmonary metastasis. The levels of AFP had decreased from 8165.8ng/mL to within the normal range (1.7 ng/mL). This is the first case report of complete response of HCC to the combination treatment with DEB-TACE and Huaier granule. At the most recent follow-up, he remained in remission 36 months after cessation of treatment without clinical or imaging evidence of disease recurrence. The current overall survival is 54 months since the initial treatment.

Conclusion

Data from this clinical case report suggest that the combination treatment with DEB-TACE and Huaier granule is a promising therapeutic option for advanced HCC with macroscopic vascular invasion and distant metastasis.

Revised Korean Antiviral Guideline Reduces the Hepatitis B-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Cirrhotic Patients

BACKGROUND

Since September 2015, the initiation of antiviral therapy (AVT) for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related cirrhosis has been reimbursed according to the revised Korean Association for the Study of Liver (KASL) guideline, if the patient had hepatitis B virus DNA level ≥ 2,000 IU/L, regardless of aminotransferase or alanine aminotransferase levels. This study investigated whether the KASL guideline implementation reduced the risk of CHB-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis in South Korea.

METHODS

A total of 429 patients with CHB-related cirrhosis who initiated AVT between 2014 and 2016 were recruited. The risk of HCC development was compared between patients who initiated AVT before and after September 2015 (pre-guideline [n = 196, 45.7%] vs. post-guideline implementation [n = 233, 54.3%]).

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation, older age, male gender, and diabetes significantly predicted increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Subsequent multivariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation (HR = 1.941), older age (HR = 5.762), male gender (HR = 2.555), and diabetes (HR = 1.568) independently predicted increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Additionally, multivariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation (HR = 2.309), male gender (HR = 3.058), and lower platelet count (HR = 0.989) independently predicted mortality (P < 0.05). The cumulative incidences of HCC and mortality were significantly higher in patients who initiated AVT before guideline implementation than in those who initiated AVT after guideline implementation (all P < 0.05, log-rank test).

CONCLUSION

The prognosis of patients with CHB-related cirrhosis who initiated AVT improved after guideline implementation according to the revised KASL guideline.

Sorafenib for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-centre real-world study

Background

Sorafenib is an oral multi-kinase inhibitor used for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. Its efficacy in randomised controlled trials was demonstrated in patients with well-preserved liver function and good functional status. In the real-world setting, treatment is often offered to patients outside these criteria. We therefore performed a single-centre real-world cohort study on the efficacy of sorafenib in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Patients and methods

We identified all patients with hepatocellular carcinoma initiating treatment with sorafenib between January 2015 and January 2018. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) since starting sorafenib. Clinical and demographic variables associated with survival were studied.

Results

The median OS was 13.4 months (95% CI 8.2–18.6). Multivariable Cox’s regression identified worse ECOG performance status (HR 2.21; 95% CI 1.56–3.16; P < 0.0001), Child-Pugh class C (HR 52.4; 95% CI 3.20–859; P = 0.005) and absence of prior locoregional treatment (HR 2.30; 95% CI 1.37–3.86; P = 0.002) to be associated with increased mortality.

Conclusions

Careful selection of patients for treatment with sorafenib is of paramount importance to optimize outcomes.

Using prognostic and predictive clinical features to make personalised survival prediction in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing sorafenib treatment

BACKGROUND

Sorafenib is the current standard of care for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC) and has been shown to improve survival by about 3 months compared to placebo. However, survival varies widely from under three months to over two years. The aim of this study was to build a statistical model that allows personalised survival prediction following sorafenib treatment.

METHODS

We had access to 1130 patients undergoing sorafenib treatment for aHCC as part of the control arm for two phase III randomised clinical trials (RCTs). A multivariable model was built that predicts survival based on baseline clinical features. The statistical approach permits both group-level risk stratification and individual-level survival prediction at any given time point. The model was calibrated, and its discrimination assessed through Harrell's c-index and Royston-Sauerbrei's R2D.

RESULTS

The variables influencing overall survival were vascular invasion, age, ECOG score, AFP, albumin, creatinine, AST, extra-hepatic spread and aetiology. The model-predicted survival very similar to that observed. The Harrell's c-indices for training and validation sets were 0.72 and 0.70, respectively indicating good prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model ('PROSASH') predicts patient survival using baseline clinical features. However, it will require further validation in a routine clinical practice setting.

Impact of the Prognostic Nutritional Index on the Survival of Japanese Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Sorafenib: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

Objective The purpose of this multicenter retrospective study was to investigate the impact of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) on the survival of Japanese patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with sorafenib. Methods A total of 178 HCC patients from May 2009 to December 2015 at our affiliated hospitals was included in this study. The PNI was calculated as follows: 10×serum albumin (g/dL) +0.005×total lymphocyte count (per mm3). The patients were divided into two groups according to the cut-off value of the PNI and as calculated by a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results The optimum cut-off value of the PNI was set at 46.8. We defined the 33 patients with a PNI≥46.8 as the PNI-high group and the 145 patients with a PNI<46.8 as the PNI-low group. The response rate was 20.0% in the PNI-high group and 8.1% in the PNI-low group, without any statistically significance (p=0.09). The duration of sorafenib therapy and the overall survival in the PNI-high group were significantly better than those in the PNI-low group. The PNI-high group was thus found to be a predictive factor associated with the duration of sorafenib therapy [hazard ratio (HR) 0.58; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.39-0.87, p=0.008] and overall survival (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.39-0.99, p=0.046) in a multivariate analysis. Conclusion The PNI is a simple and useful marker for predicting the survival of patients with HCC treated with sorafenib.

Percutaneous microwave ablation combined with simultaneous transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma with macrovascular invasion or extrahepatic metastases

Objective

To evaluate the safety and efficacy of percutaneous microwave ablation (MWA) combined with simultaneous transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with microvascular invasion (MVI) or extrahepatic metastases (EHM).

Methods

Between August 2012 and April 2017, 101 patients with MVI/EHM of HCC underwent percutaneous MWA combined with simultaneous TACE at our center. The clinical data were collected and analyzed for survival and prognostic factors.

Results

The mean follow-up time was 23.6 ± 14.7 months. One patient had grade 3 complications, and the median overall survival was 12.0 months (95% confidence interval 9.7–14.3). Multivariate analysis showed that Child-Pugh class, serum alpha-fetoprotein level, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were independent factors of survival.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that percutaneous MWA combined with simultaneous TACE is a safe and effective treatment for HCC with MVI/EHM.

Feasibility of dynamic risk assessment for patients with repeated trans-arterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (HAP) score and its modifications (modified HAP [mHAP] and mHAP-II), consisting of some or all of the following factors of tumor size, number, alpha-fetoprotein, bilirubin, and serum albumin, have been found to predict outcomes after trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the feasibility of using HAP-related risk scores for dynamic risk assessment during repeated TACE.

METHODS

A total of 619 HCC patients treated with TACE from two institutions between 2003 and 2010 were included.

RESULTS

Patients with A-B class risk scores showed significantly better survival than those with C-D class risk scores at the first (median 43.7 vs. 21.5 months for mHAP-II, 35.2 vs. 10.2 months for mHAP, and 39.8 vs. 18.6 months for HAP; all P < 0.001) and the second rounds of TACE (38.6 vs. 17.2 months for mHAP-II, 30.0 vs. 8.5 months for mHAP, and 32.6 vs. 17.3 months for HAP; all P < 0.001). Sequential assessment of risk scores at the second TACE round was applied for patients with A-B class risk scores at the first TACE round, which further identified two subgroups of A-B and C-D class risk scores with different outcomes (median survival 40.6 vs. 19.6 months for mHAP-II, 31.2 vs. 16.9 months for mHAP, and 35.8 vs. 21.0 months for HAP; all P < 0.001). Compared with mHAP and HAP, mHAP-II showed the highest likelihood ratio (22.61 vs. 14.67 and 13.97, respectively), highest linear trend (24.43 vs. 19.67 and 14.19, respectively), and lowest Akaike information criteria value (1432.51 vs. 3412.29 and 2296.98, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

All HAP-related risk scores dynamically predicted outcomes during repeated TACE. Sequential risk assessment using mHAP-II best identified optimal candidates for repeated TACE.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: the critical role of dermatological events in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib

BACKGROUND

The positive results of the REFLECT trial in terms of survival (sorafenib vs lenvatinib) offer a new first-line option for hepatocellular carcinoma. Additionally, the expected results of immunotherapy could change the first-line treatment in hepatocellular carcinoma or the clinical trial design in first and second-line.

AIMS

To evaluate the impact of dermatologic adverse events under sorafenib in hepatocellular carcinoma patients as a clinical marker to predict prognosis and critically evaluate outcomes within trials.

METHODS

A systematic search of original articles published until October 2018 was performed using PubMed/MEDLINE and a meta-analysis was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement.

RESULTS

A total of 393 studies were identified and 13 articles with 2035 patients (79.5% Child-Pugh-A, 73.2% BCLC-C) were selected for qualitative and quantitative analysis. The main type of dermatologic adverse events was hand-foot skin reaction (47.7%) but other dermatologic adverse events were reported in 31.7% of the cases. Presence of dermatologic adverse events was associated with a lower mortality when compared with those patients without them (pooled Hazard Ratio for the univariate analysis 0.45 (95% CI: 0.38-0.53) and there was no heterogeneity for the analysis (P = 0.511; I²  = 0.0%). Refuting this association would require the future report of 1370 negative studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis shows a clinically meaningful association between dermatologic adverse events and a higher probability of longer survival. These data support the use of dermatologic adverse events in the clinical decision-making when informing the prognosis and when systemic treatment is decided.

Single institution experience of sorafenib for advanced HCC in a US tertiary care hospital

Background

Sorafenib is first line chemotherapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). There are little real-world experiences with sorafenib done on US population except for the US arm of the GIDEON study, a phase IV multi-national study. In this context, we present a single institution experience with sorafenib for HCC in a tertiary inner-city safety-net hospital of Chicago.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed electronic medical records of patients with HCC (confirmed with radiographic criteria and/or biopsy) who received sorafenib from 2009 to 2016. We collected data regarding the demographics, characteristics of tumor, liver cirrhosis, duration of treatment with sorafenib, reported adverse effects with sorafenib and laboratory investigations done at the time of sorafenib initiation. Overall survival was calculated from the time of sorafenib initiation and cases were censored at the date of last follow up, if date of death was not known. Kaplan-Meier curves were estimated to evaluate the prognostic significance of various clinical variables.

Results

Fifty-nine patients received sorafenib in the study period and the median overall survival was 7 months (25-75 percentile =3-15 months). Alcohol was the leading cause of cirrhosis, 64% of them had Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class A cirrhosis or did not have cirrhosis and 73% had Barcelona stage C HCC at the time of sorafenib initiation. Close to half of them suffered from adverse effects of sorafenib, most common being those involving skin and gut. Patients with CTP class A cirrhosis or no cirrhosis (median OS 39 vs. 16 months, log rank test 3.913, P=0.048), absence of extrahepatic spread (EHS) (median OS 39 vs. 9 months, log rank test 5.632, P=0.018) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection (median OS 39 vs. 9 months, log rank test 5.015, P=0.025) had better survival.

Conclusions

Overall survival of patients with HCC treated with sorafenib in US is lower than those observed in cohorts from Europe or Japan. HCV infection could be a marker of benefit in those treated with sorafenib for HCC. Further studies to confirm this association and understand it's pathophysiologic basis could be useful in development of other therapeutic options for advanced HCC.

Reproducibility of European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria and modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors in patients treated with sorafenib

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria and the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors are used for assessing the treatment outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma. We investigated the inter- and intra-observer reproducibility of the European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria and modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

METHODS

A total of 99 patients with treatment-naive advanced hepatocellular carcinoma receiving sorafenib were included. The κ-values for the inter- and intra-observer agreement of the treatment response were calculated.

RESULTS

Inter-observer agreement for baseline tumour number was excellent, as reflected by the high κ-value. The κ-statistics showed "excellent" concordance between the 2 sets of measurements by observer A regarding the overall responses using the European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria (κ = .948, agreement rate = 84.8%) and modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (κ = .944, agreement rate = 83.8%; all P < .001). In addition, high κ-values indicated concordance between the first sets of measurements by observers A and B (κ = .991 by the European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria and .988 by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, all P < .001). When agreements in radiological overall responses between the 2 sets of measurements by observer B and between the second sets of measurements by observers A and B were calculated, similar results regarding high κ-values (>.8) were obtained.

CONCLUSIONS

The reproducibility of the European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria and modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors in assessing treatment outcomes was high in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

Value of α-fetoprotein as an early biomarker for treatment response to sorafenib therapy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Sorafenib is an oral multikinase inhibitor with antiangiogenic and antiproliferative properties, and is used as the first-line treatment for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Previous studies have identified an improvement in overall survival and progression-free survival in patients with a manageable toxicity profile. α-fetoprotein (AFP) has been revealed to be of great diagnostic and predictive value for tumour staging in multiple studies; however, its role as a predictive factor of response to treatment with sorafenib is not entirely clear. The present study aimed to determine the effectiveness of sorafenib and investigate the value of AFP as a predictive factor of early response to sorafenib in patients with HCC. Effectiveness was analysed based on median overall survival (mOS) time, while to analyse the possible predictive value of AFP, patients were classified into two groups: Non-responders (≤20% AFP reduction) and responders (>20% AFP reduction) at 6-8 weeks of treatment when compared with basal AFP level. For assessment of toxicity, any adverse effects were recorded. A total of 167 patients were included, who collectively exhibited a mOS time of 11 months with a median treatment duration of 5 months. The mOS time was significantly higher for patients with better hepatic function (12 months in cases of Child-Pugh score A vs. 8 months in cases of Child-Pugh score B; P=0.03) and with basal AFP values ≤200 ng/ml (14 months vs. 8 months in patients with AFP levels >200 ng/ml; P=0.01). A >20% reduction of AFP at 6-8 weeks was determined to be a positive predictive factor upon multivariate analysis (P=0.002), obtaining, for the responder patients, an mOS of 18 months compared with 10 months (P=0.004) for the non-responders. The main adverse reactions were hand-foot syndrome (35/167; 21%), diarrhoea (39/167; 23.4%), anorexia (29/167; 17.4%) and arterial hypertension (30/167; 18%). In conclusion, a >20% drop in AFP at 6-8 weeks may be useful as a predictive factor of response to sorafenib, as indicated by its association with longer survival times in patients with advanced HCC following treatment with sorafenib in the present study.

Prognostic factors and predictors of sorafenib benefit in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Analysis of two phase III studies

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Sorafenib, an oral multikinase inhibitor, significantly prolonged overall survival (OS) vs. placebo in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in two phase III studies, SHARP (Sorafenib HCC Assessment Randomized Protocol) and Asia Pacific (AP). To assess prognostic factors for HCC and predictive factors of sorafenib benefit, we conducted a pooled exploratory analysis from these placebo-controlled phase III studies.

METHODS

To identify potential prognostic factors for OS, univariate and multivariate (MV) analyses were performed for baseline variables by Cox proportional hazards model. Hazard ratios (HRs) and median OS were evaluated across pooled subgroups. To assess factors predictive of sorafenib benefit, the interaction term between treatment for each subgroup was evaluated by Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

In 827 patients (448 sorafenib; 379 placebo) analyzed, strong prognostic factors for poorer OS identified from MV analysis in both treatment arms were presence of macroscopic vascular invasion (MVI), high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR; ⩽ vs. >median [3.1]). Sorafenib OS benefit was consistently observed across all subgroups. Significantly greater OS sorafenib benefit vs. placebo was observed in patients without extrahepatic spread (EHS; HR, 0.55 vs. 0.84), with hepatitis C virus (HCV) (HR, 0.47 vs. 0.81), and a low NLR (HR, 0.59 vs. 0.84).

CONCLUSIONS

In this exploratory analysis, presence of MVI, high AFP, and high NLR were prognostic factors of poorer OS. Sorafenib benefit was consistently observed irrespective of prognostic factors. Lack of EHS, HCV, and lower NLR were predictive of a greater OS benefit with sorafenib.

LAY SUMMARY

This exploratory pooled analysis showed that treatment with sorafenib provides a survival benefit in all subgroups of patients with HCC; however, the magnitude of benefit is greater in patients with disease confined to the liver (without extrahepatic spread), or in those with hepatitis C virus, or a lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, an indicator of inflammation status. These results help inform the prognosis of patients receiving sorafenib therapy and provide further refinements for the design of trials testing new agents vs. sorafenib. Clinical Trial Numbers: NCT00105443 and NCT00492752.

Conditional survival estimate in patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B/C hepatocellular carcinoma treated with hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy with/without concurrent radiotherapy

Conditional survival (CS) provides a prognosis of patients who have already survived several years after treatment. We investigated CS in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B/C hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) with or without concurrent radiotherapy (CRT). A total of 181 patients diagnosed with HCC who were treated with HAIC with or without CRT between 2011 and 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Overall survival (OS) and CS were calculated and a subgroup analysis was performed. The 1- and 5-year survival rates of all patients were 57.0% and 24.3%. OS was significantly higher in patients with BCLC stage B than BCLC stage C patients. Patients who achieved disease control after treatment also showed longer OS than who did not respond to treatment. Provided that the patient had already survived for 0, 1, 2, and 3 years, the CS estimates of surviving an additional 2 years were 35.6%, 55.1%, 82.0%, and 77.4%, respectively. A subgroup analysis was performed to compare BCLC stage B and C patients and revealed that CS has a tendency to increase and the difference in CS between two groups decreased over time. CS reflects the change of prognosis over time and may provide a more accurate prognosis and hopeful message to patients who have already survived with treatment.

The prognostic value of inflammation-based scores in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients prior to treatment with sorafenib

Background and Aims

The multikinase inhibitor sorafenib is the only currently approved drug for the indication of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It provides a limited gain in survival time but is frequently associated with adverse events. We currently lack simple prognostic factors in sorafenib-treated HCC patients. Various inflammation-based scores (IBSs) have been evaluated as predictors of tumor recurrence and survival in various malignancies (including HCC). The objective of the present study was to determine the prognostic value of IBSs for overall survival (OS) in advanced HCC patients prior to the initiation of sorafenib therapy.

Methods

Patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage C HCC were enrolled retrospectively between October 2007 and September 2015. To identify prognostic factors for OS, bivariate and multivariate analysis were performed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model.

Results

161 patients (87.0% males; median age: 67; median OS: 9.1 months) were enrolled. A multivariate analysis identified a body mass index <25kg/m² (hazard ratio (HR)=1.55, p<0.017), macroscopic vascular invasion (HR=1.63, p< 0.001), an AST level >38 U/L (HR=2.65, p<0.001), Child Pugh B stage (HR=2.59, p<0.001) and a systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) ≥600 × 10⁹ (HR 1.72, p=0.002) as independent risk factors for OS in advanced HCC.

Conclusion

IBSs (such as the SII) are novel, simple, low-cost prognostic indices in patients with advanced HCC. They may be of value in determining whether these patients may benefit from sorafenib therapy.

Survival Estimates after Stopping Sorafenib in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: NEXT Score Development and Validation

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Limited information is available regarding patient survival after sorafenib discontinuation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Thus, we developed and validated a novel survival prediction model.

METHODS

Clinical data from 409 patients with HCC who stopped taking sorafenib between September 2008 and February 2015 were reviewed.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, four factors were independent negative predictors of survival (p<0.05). Based on the β regression coefficient of each factor, we established the NEXT score (Survival after Stopping Nexavar Treatment), allocating 1 point each for an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score ≥2, Child-Pugh class B or C, serum sodium ≤135 mEq/L, and α-fetoprotein 〉400 ng/mL. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values to predict 1-, 3-, and 6-month survival rates were 0.805, 0.809, and 0.774, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.783, 0.728, and 0.673, respectively, in the validation cohort (n=137). When the training and validation cohorts were stratified into three risk groups (NEXT score 0 [low-risk] vs 1 to 2 [intermediate-risk] vs 3 to 4 [high-risk]), survival differed significantly between the groups (p＜0.05, log-rank test).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with HCC, survival after stopping sorafenib is poor. However, risk estimates based on a new "NEXT score" may help predict survival and prognosis even in patients who discontinue sorafenib treatment.

Clinical and survival outcomes of percutaneous microwave ablation for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the outcomes of percutaneous microwave ablation (MWA) and explore the prognostic factors for the survival of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

A total of 107 patients (age: mean 58.0 years, range 15-85 years) with 171 ICCs (maximum size ≤5 cm, tumour number per patient ≤3) who underwent MWA for ICC during January 2009 to February 2016 were selected, and their clinical and pathological data were collected and reviewed. The MWA-associated mortality, major complication rate and survival were evaluated. The prognostic factors for survival in patients with ICC were analysed with univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

The median follow-up after MWA was 20.1 months (2.8-63.5 months). There was no procedure-associated death. The overall procedure-associated major complication rate was 2.8%. The median PFS after MWA was 8.9 months; PFS rates after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months were 67.4%, 41.5%, 18.2% and 8.7%. The median OS was 28.0 months; OS rates after 1, 3 and 5 years were 93.5%, 39.6% and 7.9%. Child-Pugh class A and less tumour number were identified as factors predictive of prolonged PFS (HR for Child-Pugh class: 2.62, p = 0.001; HR for tumour number: 2.07, p = 0.002) and OS (HR for Child-Pugh class: 4.14, p < 0.001; HR for tumour number: 1.95, p = 0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

Percutaneous ultrasound-guided MWA is safe and effective for ICC. Child-Pugh class A and less tumour number predict prolonged PFS and OS in patients with ICC treated by MWA.

Development of sorafenib-related side effects in patients diagnosed with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib: a systematic-review and meta-analysis of the impact on survival

​Introduction: Clinical markers to predict the benefit from sorafenib in patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are lacking. A meta-analysis exploring the impact of development of sorafenib-related side effects on survival was conducted. Areas covered: Eligible studies included all clinical studies reporting on the survival/toxicity relationship in sorafenib-treated HCC patients. Data sources included Pub-Med, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, and Google scholar. After exclusion of ineligible studies, 16 studies were included in the analysis. Pooled hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival (OS) for patients developing diarrhoea vs. patients who did not was 0.42 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.30-0.60; p < 0.00001); pooled HR for patients developing hypertension vs. those who did not was 0.46 (95% CI: 0.30-0.70; p = 0.0003); pooled HR for patients developing hand foot skin reaction vs. those who did not was 0.47 (95% CI: 0.35-0.62; p < 0.00001); pooled HR for OS for all types of skin toxicities was 0.51 (95% CI: 0.36-0.72; p = 0.0002); while pooled HR for OS for a combination of selected side effects (hypertension, HFS and diarrhoea) was 0.38 (95% CI: 0.30-0.48; p < 0.00001). No information was available regarding the impact of thyroid dysfunction or proteinuria. Expert commentary: This analysis of data demonstrated that the occurrence of sorafenib-related side effects (such as diarrhoea, hypertension and skin toxicities) is associated with a better OS in sorafenib-treated HCC patients.

First- and Second-Line Targeted Systemic Therapy in Hepatocellular Carcinoma-An Update on Patient Selection and Response Evaluation

Advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with vascular invasion and/or extrahepatic spread and preserved liver function, according to stage C of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification, has a dismal prognosis. The multi-targeted tyrosine-kinase receptor inhibitor (TKI) sorafenib is the only proven active substance in systemic HCC therapy for first-line treatment. In this review, we summarize current aspects in patient selection and management of side effects, and provide an update on response evaluation during first-line sorafenib therapy. Since second-line treatment options have been improved with the successful completion of the RESORCE trial, demonstrating a survival benefit for second-line treatment with the TKI regorafenib, response monitoring during first-line therapy will be critical to deliver optimal systemic therapy in HCC. To this regard, specific side effects, in particular worsening of arterial hypertension and diarrhea, might suggest treatment response during first-line sorafenib therapy; however, clear predictive clinical markers, as well as laboratory test or serum markers, are not established. Assessment of radiologic response according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) is helpful to identify patients who do not benefit from sorafenib treatment.

Subclassification of patients with intermediate-stage (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage-B) hepatocellular carcinoma using the up-to-seven criteria and serum tumor markers

BACKGROUND

Intermediate-stage [Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage-B (BCLC-B)] hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) comprises of a heterogeneous population of patients with a wide range of tumor burdens. We therefore formulated a subclassification of BCLC-B HCC using the up-to-seven criteria and tumor markers according to the results of a retrospective analysis of these patients.

METHODS

This study included 125 patients newly diagnosed with BCLC-B HCC who underwent transarterial chemoembolization. Among them, 39 and 86 were within or beyond the up-to-seven criteria, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to investigate factors that contributed to better prognosis associated with the criteria.

RESULTS

Cumulative overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival rates were significantly higher for patients within the up-to-seven criteria compared with those beyond (p = 0.034 and p = 0.001, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that low concentrations of des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) (<150 mAU/ml) and α-fetoprotein (AFP) (<100 ng/ml) were independent contributors to better OS of patients within or beyond the up-to-seven criteria, respectively. Accordingly, the patients were classified as follows: group A (patients within the up-to-seven criteria with DCP <150 mAU/ml), group C (patients beyond the up-to-seven criteria with AFP ≥100 ng/ml), and group B (other patients). OS differed significantly among groups (p < 0.001), and the median survival times of group A, B, and C were 4.2, 2.7, and 1.5 years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The subclassification system incorporating the up-to-seven criteria combined with DCP and AFP levels may serve as better predictors of prognosis that may guide efforts to improve treatment strategies.

Sorafenib in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-centre real-world study

OBJECTIVE

Sorafenib is an oral multikinase inhibitor that improves survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In the absence of alternative therapies, sorafenib is often continued despite advancing liver disease or tumour progression. Real world studies are important to better characterise outcomes in these populations. Our aim was to review patterns of sorafenib use across eight Australian tertiary hospitals, defining variables associated with clinical outcomes.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of medical records of 320 patients treated with sorafenib for HCC. Baseline clinical parameters, dosage, adverse effects, and survival from initiation of treatment were collected. Time to radiological progression and 3-month alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were available for a subset of patients.

RESULTS

Adverse effects occurred in 79% of patients, requiring dose reduction in 31% of patients. Multivariate analysis identified an increased rate of mortality with Child-Pugh C (HR 5.52, p = 0.012), ECOG performance status 2-3 (HR 2.84, p = 0.001), and extrahepatic metastases (HR 1.54, p = 0.04), and decreased rate of mortality with an AFP reduction of at least 20% at 3 months (HR 0.38, p = 0.001). An increased rate of radiological progression was associated with ECOG performance status 2-3 (HR 2.34, p = 0.041), whilst a decreased rate of radiological progression was associated with development of on-treatment diarrhoea (HR 0.55, p = 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

Survival in patients with Child-Pugh C liver function or advanced functional impairment treated with sorafenib is poor and thus routine use of this agent in these patients does not appear justified, particularly given the high rate of adverse effects. AFP concentration on therapy may help identify favourable response to treatment.

Early Clinical Response after 2 Weeks of Sorafenib Therapy Predicts Outcomes and Anti-Tumor Response in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We evaluated the relationship between the early clinical response after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy and the outcomes and anti-tumor response in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

Fifty-seven patients who had intrahepatic hypervascular hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Pugh (CP) class A disease at baseline were enrolled in this prospective, multicenter, observational, non-interventional study. As an early clinical response after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy, changes in intra-tumor blood flow on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, and remnant liver function were investigated.

RESULTS

After 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy, there were 26 patients (45.6%) without disappearance of arterial tumor enhancement on CE-CT, 15 patients (26.3%) with an AFP ratio of >1.2, and seven patients (12.3%) with two or more increments in the CP score. Multivariate analysis showed that the absence of disappearance of arterial tumor enhancement on CE-CT, AFP ratio of >1.2, and two or more increments in the CP score after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy were significant and independent predictors of worse survival. Upon scoring these three variables as "poor prognostic factors", patients with poor prognostic score 4, 3 or 2 (n = 17) had significantly worse outcomes and a significantly higher progressive disease (PD) rate based on modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors at 6 weeks after sorafenib therapy than those with poor prognostic score 1 or 0 (n = 40) (median overall survival: 194 days vs. 378 days; p = 0.0010, PD rate: 70.6% vs. 20.0%; p = 0.0003, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in intra-tumor blood flow on CE-CT, AFP levels, and remnant liver function after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy may be useful for predicting the outcomes and anti-tumor response to sorafenib in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC.