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Zahra A, van Smeden M, Abbink EJ, van den Berg JM, Blom MT, van den Dries CJ, Gussekloo J, Wouters F, Joling KJ, Melis R, Mooijaart SP, Peters JB, Polinder-Bos HA, van Raaij BFM, Appelman B, la Roi-Teeuw HM, Moons KGM, Luijken K. External validation of six COVID-19 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk in older populations in a hospital, primary care, and nursing home setting. J Clin Epidemiol 2024; 168:111270. [PMID: 38311188 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2024.111270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2023] [Revised: 01/26/2024] [Accepted: 01/26/2024] [Indexed: 02/10/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To systematically evaluate the performance of COVID-19 prognostic models and scores for mortality risk in older populations across three health-care settings: hospitals, primary care, and nursing homes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING This retrospective external validation study included 14,092 older individuals of ≥70 years of age with a clinical or polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis from March 2020 to December 2020. The six validation cohorts include three hospital-based (CliniCo, COVID-OLD, COVID-PREDICT), two primary care-based (Julius General Practitioners Network/Academisch network huisartsgeneeskunde/Network of Academic general Practitioners, PHARMO), and one nursing home cohort (YSIS) in the Netherlands. Based on a living systematic review of COVID-19 prediction models using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool for quality and risk of bias assessment and considering predictor availability in validation cohorts, we selected six prognostic models predicting mortality risk in adults with COVID-19 infection (GAL-COVID-19 mortality, 4C Mortality Score, National Early Warning Score 2-extended model, Xie model, Wang clinical model, and CURB65 score). All six prognostic models were validated in the hospital cohorts and the GAL-COVID-19 mortality model was validated in all three healthcare settings. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality for hospitals and 28-day mortality for primary care and nursing home settings. Model performance was evaluated in each validation cohort separately in terms of discrimination, calibration, and decision curves. An intercept update was performed in models indicating miscalibration followed by predictive performance re-evaluation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE In-hospital mortality for hospitals and 28-day mortality for primary care and nursing home setting. RESULTS All six prognostic models performed poorly and showed miscalibration in the older population cohorts. In the hospital settings, model performance ranged from calibration-in-the-large -1.45 to 7.46, calibration slopes 0.24-0.81, and C-statistic 0.55-0.71 with 4C Mortality Score performing as the most discriminative and well-calibrated model. Performance across health-care settings was similar for the GAL-COVID-19 model, with a calibration-in-the-large in the range of -2.35 to -0.15 indicating overestimation, calibration slopes of 0.24-0.81 indicating signs of overfitting, and C-statistic of 0.55-0.71. CONCLUSION Our results show that most prognostic models for predicting mortality risk performed poorly in the older population with COVID-19, in each health-care setting: hospital, primary care, and nursing home settings. Insights into factors influencing predictive model performance in the older population are needed for pandemic preparedness and reliable prognostication of health-related outcomes in this demographic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anum Zahra
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
| | - Maarten van Smeden
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Evertine J Abbink
- Department of Internal Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Jesse M van den Berg
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health, Health Behaviors & Chronic Diseases, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; PHARMO Institute for Drug Outcomes Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Marieke T Blom
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health, Health Behaviors & Chronic Diseases, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Carline J van den Dries
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jacobijn Gussekloo
- Section Gerontology and Geriatrics, LUMC Center for Medicine for Older People & Department of Public Health and Primary Care & Department of Internal Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Fenne Wouters
- Department of Medicine for Older People, Amsterdam UMC, Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Aging & Later Life, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Karlijn J Joling
- Department of Medicine for Older People, Amsterdam UMC, Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Aging & Later Life, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - René Melis
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Simon P Mooijaart
- LUMC Center for Medicine for Older People, LUMC, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Jeannette B Peters
- Department of Pulmonary Diseases, Radboud University Medical Center, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Harmke A Polinder-Bos
- Section of Geriatric Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Bas F M van Raaij
- LUMC Center for Medicine for Older People, LUMC, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Brent Appelman
- Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam, Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Hannah M la Roi-Teeuw
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Karel G M Moons
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Kim Luijken
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Hai CN, Duc TB, Minh TN, Quang LN, Tung SLC, Duc LT, Duong-Quy S. Predicting mortality risk in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: an early model utilizing clinical symptoms. BMC Pulm Med 2024; 24:24. [PMID: 38200490 PMCID: PMC10777603 DOI: 10.1186/s12890-023-02838-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2023] [Accepted: 12/29/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite global efforts to control the COVID-19 pandemic, the emergence of new viral strains continues to pose a significant threat. Accurate patient stratification, optimized resource allocation, and appropriate treatment are crucial in managing COVID-19 cases. To address this, a simple and accurate prognostic tool capable of rapidly identifying individuals at high risk of mortality is urgently needed. Early prognosis facilitates predicting treatment outcomes and enables effective patient management. The aim of this study was to develop an early predictive model for assessing mortality risk in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, utilizing baseline clinical factors. METHODS We conducted a descriptive cross-sectional study involving a cohort of 375 COVID-19 patients admitted and treated at the COVID-19 Patient Treatment Center in Military Hospital 175 from October 2021 to December 2022. RESULTS Among the 375 patients, 246 and 129 patients were categorized into the survival and mortality groups, respectively. Our findings revealed six clinical factors that demonstrated independent predictive value for mortality in COVID-19 patients. These factors included age greater than 50 years, presence of multiple underlying diseases, dyspnea, acute confusion, saturation of peripheral oxygen below 94%, and oxygen demand exceeding 5 L per minute. We integrated these factors to develop the Military Hospital 175 scale (MH175), a prognostic scale demonstrating significant discriminatory ability with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.87. The optimal cutoff value for predicting mortality risk using the MH175 score was determined to be ≥ 3 points, resulting in a sensitivity of 96.1%, specificity of 63.4%, positive predictive value of 58%, and negative predictive value of 96.9%. CONCLUSIONS The MH175 scale demonstrated a robust predictive capacity for assessing mortality risk in patients with COVID-19. Implementation of the MH175 scale in clinical settings can aid in patient stratification and facilitate the application of appropriate treatment strategies, ultimately reducing the risk of death. Therefore, the utilization of the MH175 scale holds significant potential to improve clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION An independent ethics committee approved the study (Research Ethics Committee of Military Hospital 175 (No. 3598GCN-HDDD; date: October 8, 2021), which was performed in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki, Guidelines for Good Clinical Practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cong Nguyen Hai
- Department of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Pathology, Military Hospital 175, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
| | | | - The Nguyen Minh
- Department of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Pathology, Military Hospital 175, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Lich Ngo Quang
- Department of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Pathology, Military Hospital 175, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Son Luong Cao Tung
- Department of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Pathology, Military Hospital 175, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Loi Trinh Duc
- Department of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Pathology, Military Hospital 175, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Sy Duong-Quy
- Clinical Research Unit, Lam Dong Medical College and Bio-Medical Research Centre, Dalat City, Vietnam
- Immuno-Allergology Division, Hershey Medical Center, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA
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Evlice O, Bektaş M, Kar F, Marim F, Kaya İ, Yörükoğlu K, Ak Ö. Association of Serum Krebs von den Lungen-6 (KL-6) Levels and Disease Severity in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19. INFECTIOUS DISEASES & CLINICAL MICROBIOLOGY 2023; 5:292-299. [PMID: 38633849 PMCID: PMC10986708 DOI: 10.36519/idcm.2023.260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 10/05/2023] [Indexed: 04/19/2024]
Abstract
Objective We aimed to evaluate Krebs von den Lungen-6 (KL-6) as a possible biomarker in determining disease severity in patients with moderate and severe COVID-19. Materials and Methods This cross-sectional study included moderate or severe COVID-19 patients; critically ill patients who were followed up in the intensive care unit were not included. KL-6 level and routine laboratory test measurements were performed on the first day of admission. The patients were also categorized according to their hyperinflammatory state. Results The study included 92 patients, 56 (61%) women. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) score was 2 in 52.2% of the patients and 3 in 47.8%. KL-6 levels did not significantly differ in disease severity (NIH score 2 vs. 3; p=0.15). Median KL-6 values were 52.7 (29.1) in patients with <2 COVID-19 hyperinflammatory syndrome score (cHIS) and 61.7 (32.2) in patients with cHIS ≥ 2 (p= 0.077). KL-6 values tended to be higher among the patients with lower lymphocyte counts, but the difference was not statistically significant (<1000 mm³/L p=0.006 and higher cHIS scores ≥2 p=0.07). KL-6 values were also higher in the patients with diabetes mellitus compared to the remaining patients (p =0.036). Conclusion There was no significant association between the serum KL-6 measured at admission and the severity of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oğuz Evlice
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Kütahya Health Sciences University School of Medicine, Kütahya, Türkiye
| | - Murat Bektaş
- Department of Romatology, İstanbul University İstanbul School of Medicine, İstanbul, Türkiye
| | - Fatih Kar
- Department of Medical Biochemistry, Kütahya Health Sciences University School of Medicine, Kütahya, Türkiye
| | - Feride Marim
- Department of Chest Diseases, Kütahya Health Sciences University School of Medicine, Kütahya, Türkiye
| | - İlknur Kaya
- Department of Chest Diseases, Kütahya Health Sciences University School of Medicine, Kütahya, Türkiye
| | - Kerem Yörükoğlu
- Departments of Internal Medicine, Kütahya Health Sciences University School of Medicine, Kütahya, Türkiye
| | - Öznur Ak
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Kütahya Health Sciences University School of Medicine, Kütahya, Türkiye
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Acevedo-Sánchez G, Mora-Aguilera G, Coria-Contreras JJ, Álvarez-Maya I. Were metabolic and other chronic diseases the driven onset epidemic forces of COVID-19 in Mexico? Front Public Health 2023; 11:995602. [PMID: 37608984 PMCID: PMC10441236 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.995602] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2022] [Accepted: 07/14/2023] [Indexed: 08/24/2023] Open
Abstract
The underline hypothesis of this study was that SARS-CoV-2 can infect individuals regardless of health condition, sex, and age in opposition to the classical epidemiological assumption of an identifiable susceptible subpopulation for epidemic development. To address this issue, a population cohort with 24.4 million metadata associated with 226,089 official RT-qPCR positive and 283,450 negative cases, including 27,769 deceased, linked putatively to B.1. and B.1.1. SARS-CoV-2 lineages were analyzed. The analysis baseline was to determine the infection and mortality structure of the diseased cohort at the onset-exponential phase of the first epidemic wave in Mexico under the assumption of limited herd immunity. Individuals with nonchronic diseases (NOCDs) were compared with those exhibiting at least one of 10 chronic diseases (CDs) adjusted by age and sex. Risk factors for infection and mortality were estimated with classification and regression tree (CART) and cluster analysis based on Spearman's matrix of rho-values in RStudio®, complemented with two proposed mortality indices. SARS-CoV-2 infection was independent of health condition (52.8% NOCD vs. 47.2% CDs; p = 0.001-0.009) but influenced by age >46 in one risk analysis scenario (p < 0.001). Sex contributed 9.7% to the overall risk. The independent effect was supported by the health structure of negative cases with a similar tendency but a higher proportion of NOCDs (61.4%, p = 0.007). The infection probability in individuals with one CD was determined by the disease type and age, which was higher in those older individuals (≥56 years) exhibiting diabetes (12.3%, cp = 0.0006), hypertension (10.1%, cp < 0.0001), and obesity (7.8%, cp = 0.001). In contrast, the mortality risk was heavily influenced by CD conditioned by sex and age, accounting for 72.3% of total deaths (p = 0.001-0.008). Significant mortality risk (48%) was comprised of women and men (w, m) aged ≥56 years with diabetes (19% w and 27.9% m, cp < 0.0004), hypertension (11.5% w, cp = 0.0001), and CKD (3.5% w and 5.3% m, cp = 0.0009). Older people with diabetes and hypertension comorbidity increased the risk to 60.5% (p = 0.001). Based on a mortality-weighted index, women were more vulnerable to preexisting metabolic or cardiovascular diseases. These findings support our hypothesis and justify the need for surveillance systems at a communitarian level. This is the first study addressing this fundamental epidemiological question.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerardo Acevedo-Sánchez
- Laboratory of Epidemiological Risk Analysis (LANREF), Postgraduate College, Montecillo Campus, Texcoco, State of Mexico, Mexico
| | - Gustavo Mora-Aguilera
- Laboratory of Epidemiological Risk Analysis (LANREF), Postgraduate College, Montecillo Campus, Texcoco, State of Mexico, Mexico
| | - Juan J. Coria-Contreras
- Laboratory of Epidemiological Risk Analysis (LANREF), Postgraduate College, Montecillo Campus, Texcoco, State of Mexico, Mexico
| | - Ikuri Álvarez-Maya
- Center for Research and Applied Technology in Jalisco (CIATEJ), Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
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Prasad PA, Correia J, Fang MC, Fisher A, Correll M, Oreper S, Auerbach A. Performance of point-of-care severity scores to predict prognosis in patients admitted through the emergency department with COVID-19. J Hosp Med 2023; 18:413-423. [PMID: 37057912 DOI: 10.1002/jhm.13106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Revised: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/31/2023] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Identifying COVID-19 patients at the highest risk of poor outcomes is critical in emergency department (ED) presentation. Sepsis risk stratification scores can be calculated quickly for COVID-19 patients but have not been evaluated in a large cohort. OBJECTIVE To determine whether well-known risk scores can predict poor outcomes among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. DESIGNS, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS A retrospective cohort study of adults presenting with COVID-19 to 156 Hospital Corporation of America (HCA) Healthcare EDs, March 2, 2020, to February 11, 2021. INTERVENTION Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Shock Index, National Early Warning System-2 (NEWS2), and quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI) at presentation. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressors receipt. Patients scored positive with qSOFA ≥ 2, Shock Index > 0.7, NEWS2 ≥ 5, and qCSI ≥ 4. Test characteristics and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) were calculated. RESULTS We identified 90,376 patients with community-acquired COVID-19 (mean age 64.3 years, 46.8% female). 17.2% of patients died in-hospital, 28.6% went to the ICU, 13.7% received mechanical ventilation, and 13.6% received vasopressors. There were 3.8% qSOFA-positive, 45.1% Shock Index-positive, 49.8% NEWS2-positive, and 37.6% qCSI-positive at ED-triage. NEWS2 exhibited the highest AUROC for in-hospital mortality (0.593, confidence interval [CI]: 0.588-0.597), ICU admission (0.602, CI: 0.599-0.606), mechanical ventilation (0.614, CI: 0.610-0.619), and vasopressor receipt (0.600, CI: 0.595-0.604). CONCLUSIONS Sepsis severity scores at presentation have low discriminative power to predict outcomes in COVID-19 patients and are not reliable for clinical use. Severity scores should be developed using features that accurately predict poor outcomes among COVID-19 patients to develop more effective risk-based triage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Priya A Prasad
- Department of Medicine, Division of Hospital Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Jessica Correia
- Sarah Cannon, Genospace, HCA Healthcare Research Institute, Nashville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Margaret C Fang
- Department of Medicine, Division of Hospital Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Arielle Fisher
- Sarah Cannon, Genospace, HCA Healthcare Research Institute, Nashville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Mick Correll
- Sarah Cannon, Genospace, HCA Healthcare Research Institute, Nashville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Sandra Oreper
- Department of Medicine, Division of Hospital Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Andrew Auerbach
- Department of Medicine, Division of Hospital Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
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Lagrandeur J, Putallaz P, Krief H, Büla CJ, Coutaz M. Mortality in COVID-19 older patients hospitalized in a geriatric ward: Is obesity protective? BMC Geriatr 2023; 23:228. [PMID: 37041477 PMCID: PMC10088129 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-023-03937-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2022] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 04/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUNDS To investigate the relationship between obesity and 30-day mortality in a cohort of older hospitalized COVID-19 inpatients. METHODS Included patients were aged 70 years or more; hospitalized in acute geriatric wards between March and December 2020; with a positive PCR for COVID-19; not candidate to intensive care unit admission. Clinical data were collected from patients electronic medical records. Data on 30-day mortality were retrieved from the hospital administrative database. RESULTS Patients included (N = 294) were on average 83.4 ± 6.7 years old, 50.7% were women, and 21.7% were obese (BMI > 30 kg/m2). At 30-day, 85 (28.9%) patients were deceased. Compared to survivors in bivariable analysis, deceased patients were older (84.6 ± 7.6 vs 83.0 ± 6.3 years), more frequently with very complex health status (63.5% vs 39.7%, P < .001), but less frequently obese (13.4% vs 24.9%, P = .033) at admission. Over their stay, deceased patients more frequently (all P < .001) developed radiologic signs of COVID-19 (84.7% vs 58.9%), anorexia (84.7% vs 59.8%), hypernatremia (40.0% vs 10.5%), delirium (74.1% vs 30.1%), and need for oxygen (87.1% vs 46.4%) compared to survivors. In multivariable analysis that controlled for all markers of poor prognosis identified in bivariable analysis, obese patients remain with 64% (adjOR 0.36, 95%CI 0.14-0.95, P = .038) lower odds to be deceased at 30-day than non-obese patients. CONCLUSIONS In this population of older COVID-19 inpatients, an inverse association between obesity and 30-day mortality was observed even after adjusting for all already-known markers of poor prognosis. This result challenges previous observations in younger cohorts and would need to be replicated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julien Lagrandeur
- Service of Geriatric Medicine, Hospital of Valais, Avenue de La Fusion 27, 1920, Martigny, Switzerland.
| | - Pauline Putallaz
- Service of Geriatric Medicine, Hospital of Valais, Avenue de La Fusion 27, 1920, Martigny, Switzerland
- Service of Geriatric Medicine and Geriatric Rehabilitation, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Mont-Paisible 16, 1011, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Hélène Krief
- Service of Geriatric Medicine and Geriatric Rehabilitation, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Mont-Paisible 16, 1011, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Christophe J Büla
- Service of Geriatric Medicine and Geriatric Rehabilitation, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Mont-Paisible 16, 1011, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Martial Coutaz
- Service of Geriatric Medicine, Hospital of Valais, Avenue de La Fusion 27, 1920, Martigny, Switzerland
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Yadigaroğlu M, Çömez VV, Gültekin YE, Ceylan Y, Yanık HT, Yadigaroğlu NÖ, Yücel M, Güzel M. Can lactate levels and lactate kinetics predict mortality in patients with COVID-19 with using qCSI scoring system? Am J Emerg Med 2023; 66:45-52. [PMID: 36682102 PMCID: PMC9832691 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2023.01.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2022] [Revised: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2023] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between blood lactate levels and lactate kinetics (lactate clearance and Δ lactate) for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the emergency department. METHODS This study was performed as a retrospective study that included patients admitted to the emergency department between March 1st, 2020, and January 1st, 2022. Lactate levels were recorded at the first admission (0 h lactate) and the highest blood lactate levels in the first 24 h of follow-up (2nd highest lactate). Lactate kinetics were calculated. Clinical severity was determined according to the quick COVID Severity Index (qCSI). RESULTS 300 patients were included in the study. Lactate levels at admission were similar in groups with or without mortality, but 2nd highest lactate levels were found to be significantly higher in the group with mortality (p < 0.001). Lactate clearance and ∆ lactate levels were also found to be lower in the mortality group (p < 0.001). Lactate kinetics in patients in the clinically low severity group were lower in the mortality group (p = 0.02 and p = 0.039, respectively). In the low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups, 0-h lactate and 2nd highest lactate levels were found to be higher in the mortality group, and lactate kinetics were similar in the groups with and without mortality. In the group with high clinical severity, 2nd highest lactate levels were found to be higher in the group with mortality (p = 0.010). Lactate kinetics were also found to be significantly lower in the mortality group (p < 0.001). In the high qCSI group, based on ROC analysis, the AUC for 2nd highest lactate levels predicting mortality was 0.642 (95% CI: 0.548-0.728). The optimal cut-off value for mortality was greater than >2.4 mmol/L (60.6% sensitivity, 67.4% specificity). The AUC for lactate clearance was 0.748 (95% CI: 0.659-0.824). The lactate clearance cut-off value was ≤ -177.78% (49.3% sensitivity, 100% specificity). The AUC for ∆ lactate was 0.707 (95% CI: 0.616-0.787). The optimal ∆ lactate cut-off was ≤ -2 mmol/L (45.1% sensitivity, 93.5% specificity). CONCLUSION In COVID-19, 2nd highest blood lactate and lactate kinetics were found to be prognostic indicators of the disease. High 2nd highest lactate levels and low lactate kinetics in patients with high clinical severity were guiding physicians regarding the outcome of the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Metin Yadigaroğlu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Samsun University, Faculty of Medicine, Samsun, Turkey
| | - Vecdi Vahdet Çömez
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Samsun Education and Research Hospital, Samsun, Turkey
| | - Yunus Emre Gültekin
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Samsun Education and Research Hospital, Samsun, Turkey
| | - Yasin Ceylan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Samsun Education and Research Hospital, Samsun, Turkey
| | - Hüseyin Tufan Yanık
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Samsun Education and Research Hospital, Samsun, Turkey
| | | | - Murat Yücel
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Samsun University, Faculty of Medicine, Samsun, Turkey
| | - Murat Güzel
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Samsun Education and Research Hospital, Samsun, Turkey.
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Camacho-Moll ME, Ramírez-Daher Z, Escobedo-Guajardo BL, Dávila-Valero JC, Rodríguez-de la Garza BL, Bermúdez de León M. ABC-GOALScl score predicts admission to the intensive care unit and mortality of COVID-19 patients over 60 years of age. BMC Geriatr 2023; 23:138. [PMID: 36899318 PMCID: PMC9999052 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-023-03864-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2022] [Accepted: 03/01/2023] [Indexed: 03/12/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND One of the risk factors for getting seriously ill from COVID-19 and reaching high mortality rates is older age. Older age is also associated with comorbidities, which are risk factors for severe COVID-19 infection. Among the tools that have been evaluated to predict intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality is ABC-GOALScl. AIM In the present study we validated the utility of ABC-GOALScl to predict in-hospital mortality in subjects over 60 years of age who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 virus at the moment of admission with the purpose of optimizing sanitary resources and offering personalized treatment for these patients. METHODS This was an observational, descriptive, transversal, non-interventional and retrospective study of subjects (≥ 60 years of age), hospitalized due to COVID-19 infection at a general hospital in northeastern Mexico. A logistical regression model was used for data analysis. RESULTS Two hundred forty-three subjects were included in the study, whom 145 (59.7%) passed away, while 98 (40.3%) were discharged. Average age was 71, and 57.6% were male. The prediction model ABC-GOALScl included sex, body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, dyspnea, arterial pressure, respiratory frequency, SpFi coefficient (Saturation of oxygen/Fraction of inspired oxygen ratio), serum levels of glucose, albumin, and lactate dehydrogenase; all were measured at the moment of admission. The area under the curve for the scale with respect to the variable of discharge due to death was 0.73 (IC 95% = 0.662-0.792). CONCLUSION The ABC-GOALScl scale to predict ICU admission in COVID-19 patients is also useful to predict in-hospital death in COVID-19 patients ≥ 60 years old.
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Affiliation(s)
- María Elena Camacho-Moll
- Department of Molecular Biology, Center for Biomedical Research at Northeast, Mexican Social Security Institute, Calle 2 de abril 501, Col. Independencia, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, 64720, Mexico.,Center for Molecular Diagnosis and Personalized Medicine, Health Sciences Division, Universidad de Monterrey, Av. Ignacio Morones Prieto 4500-Pte, Zona Valle Poniente, Nuevo Leon, 66238, San Pedro Garza Garcia, Mexico
| | - Zayra Ramírez-Daher
- Residency in Geriatrics, Zone General Hospital No. 4, Mexican Social Security Institute, C. Mariano Matamoros 300, Centro de Guadalupe, Guadalupe, Nuevo Leon, 67100, Mexico
| | - Brenda Leticia Escobedo-Guajardo
- Department of Molecular Biology, Center for Biomedical Research at Northeast, Mexican Social Security Institute, Calle 2 de abril 501, Col. Independencia, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, 64720, Mexico
| | - Julio César Dávila-Valero
- Residency in Geriatrics, Zone General Hospital No. 4, Mexican Social Security Institute, C. Mariano Matamoros 300, Centro de Guadalupe, Guadalupe, Nuevo Leon, 67100, Mexico
| | - Brenda Ludmila Rodríguez-de la Garza
- Residency in Geriatrics, Zone General Hospital No. 4, Mexican Social Security Institute, C. Mariano Matamoros 300, Centro de Guadalupe, Guadalupe, Nuevo Leon, 67100, Mexico.
| | - Mario Bermúdez de León
- Department of Molecular Biology, Center for Biomedical Research at Northeast, Mexican Social Security Institute, Calle 2 de abril 501, Col. Independencia, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, 64720, Mexico.
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Buyukaydin B, Karaaslan T, Uysal O. Evaluation of risk scores as predictors of mortality and hospital length of stay for older COVID-19 patients. Aging Med (Milton) 2023; 6:56-62. [PMID: 36911090 PMCID: PMC10000259 DOI: 10.1002/agm2.12238] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2022] [Revised: 12/12/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective This study was intended to research the sensitivity of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), COVID-GRAM, and MuLBSTA risk scores for hospital length of stay (LOS) and mortality in older patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods A total of 217 patients (119 women) were included in the study. The first clinical signs, comorbidities, laboratory and radiology findings, and hospital LOS were recorded for each patient. The CCI, COVID-GRAM, and MuLBSTA risk scores were calculated, and their sensitivities for hospital LOS and mortality were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results Of the hospitalized patients, 59 (27.2%) were followed in the intensive care unit, and mortality developed in 44 (20.3%). The CCI positively correlated with COVID-GRAM and MuLBSTA scores (P < 0.001). COVID-GRAM and MuLBSTA results correlated with LOS and mortality (P < 0.001). According to the ROC curve analysis, the cutoff points for mortality were 5 for CCI, 169 for COVID-GRAM, and 9 for MuLBSTA. Conclusion Older patients with comorbidities are the major risk group for severe COVID-19. COVID-GRAM and MuLBSTA scores appear to be sensitive and reliable mortality indicators for these patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Banu Buyukaydin
- Department of Internal Medicine Bezmialem Vakif University School of Medicine Istanbul Turkey
| | - Tahsin Karaaslan
- Department of Nephrology Istanbul Medeniyet University School of Medicine Istanbul Turkey
| | - Omer Uysal
- Department of Biostatistics Istanbul University Cerrahpasa School of Medicine Istanbul Turkey
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10
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Karanth Marsur Prabhakar S, Ramaswamy S, Basavarajachar V, Chakraborty A, Shivananjiah A, Chikkavenkatappa N. Clinical and Laboratory Predictors of Mortality in Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Retrospective Study from India. THORACIC RESEARCH AND PRACTICE 2023; 24:53-60. [PMID: 37503640 PMCID: PMC10332473 DOI: 10.5152/thoracrespract.2023.22029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 10/05/2022] [Indexed: 07/29/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Wide arrays of laboratory parameters have been proposed by many studies for prognosis in COVID-19 patients. In this study, we wanted to determine if the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium-Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium score in addition to certain clinical and laboratory parameters would help in predicting mortality. We wanted to determine if a greater severity score on chest x-ray at presentation translated to poor patient outcomes using the COVID-19 chest radiography score. MATERIAL AND METHODS This retrospective study was conducted at SDS TRC and Rajiv Gandhi Institute of chest diseases, Bangalore from March 2021 to June 2021. This study included 202 real-time-polymerase chain reaction-positive COVID-19 patients aged above 18 years admitted to the intensive care unit of our hospital. Demographic characteristics and baseline hematological and inflammatory markers (serum C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, troponin-I, ferritin, and d-dimer) were collected. Radiological severity on a chest x-ray was assessed using the validated COVID-19 chest radiography score. The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium-Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium score was assigned to each patient within 24 hours of intensive care unit admission. Outcome studied was in-hospital mortality. RESULTS The overall mortality was 54.9% (111 cases). Age more than 50 years, >4 days of symptoms, peripheral oxygen saturation/ fraction of inspired oxygen ratio less than 200, elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase >398.5 IU/L, and hypoalbuminemia (<2.95 g/dL) were detected as independent predictors of mortality. A significant correlation of risk stratification with mortality (P = .057) was seen with International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium-Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium score. There was no significant correlation between the COVID-19 chest radiography score and mortality. CONCLUSION Age >50 years, peripheral oxygen saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio <200, mean symptom duration of >4 days, elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase, and hypoalbuminemia are independent predictors of mortality in severe COVID-19 pneumonia. International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium-Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium score was different in the survivors and deceased.
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Affiliation(s)
- Swathi Karanth Marsur Prabhakar
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Shanthabai Devarao Shivaram Tuberculosis Research Center & Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases, Bangalore, Karnataka
| | - Swapna Ramaswamy
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Shanthabai Devarao Shivaram Tuberculosis Research Center & Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases, Bangalore, Karnataka
| | - Vanitha Basavarajachar
- The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) Projects, Swami Vivekananda Youth Movement, Bangalore, Karnataka
| | - Anushree Chakraborty
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Shanthabai Devarao Shivaram Tuberculosis Research Center & Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases, Bangalore, Karnataka
| | - Akshata Shivananjiah
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Shanthabai Devarao Shivaram Tuberculosis Research Center & Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases, Bangalore, Karnataka
| | - Nagaraja Chikkavenkatappa
- Shanthabai Devarao Shivaram Tuberculosis Research Center & Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases, Bangalore, Karnataka
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11
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Abu Elhassan UE, Alqahtani SM, Al Saglan NS, Hawan A, Alqahtani FS, Almtheeb RS, Abdelwahab MS, AlFlan MA, Alfaifi AS, Alqahtani MA, Alshafa FA, Alsalem AA, Al-Imamah YA, Abdelwahab OS, Attia MF, Mahmoud IM. Utility of the 4C ISARIC mortality score in hospitalized COVID-19 patients at a large tertiary Saudi Arabian center. Multidiscip Respir Med 2023; 18:917. [PMID: 37692055 PMCID: PMC10483479 DOI: 10.4081/mrm.2023.917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 06/16/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) 4C mortality score has been used before as a valuable tool for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to address the utility of the 4C score in a well-defined Saudi population with COVID-19 admitted to a large tertiary referral hospital in Saudi Arabia. Methods A retrospective study was conducted that included all adults COVID‑19 patients admitted to the Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), between January 2021 and September 2022. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve depicted the diagnostic performance of the 4C Score for mortality prediction. Results A total of 1,853 patients were enrolled. The ROC curve of the 4C score had an area under the curve of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.702-0.758), p<0.001. The sensitivity and specificity with scores >8 were 80% and 58%, respectively, the positive and negative predictive values were 28% and 93%, respectively. Three hundred and sixteen (17.1%), 638 (34.4%), 814 (43.9%), and 85 (4.6%) patients had low, intermediate, high, and very high values, respectively. There were significant differences between survivors and non-survivors with regard to all variables used in the calculation of the 4C score. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that all components of the 4C score, except gender and O2 saturation, were independent significant predictors of mortality. Conclusions Our data support previous international and Saudi studies that the 4C mortality score is a reliable tool with good sensitivity and specificity in the mortality prediction of COVID-19 patients. All components of the 4C score, except gender and O2 saturation, were independent significant predictors of mortality. Within the 4C score, odds ratios increased proportionately with an increase in the score value. Future multi-center prospective studies are warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Usama E. Abu Elhassan
- Department of Internal Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Saad M.A. Alqahtani
- Department of Internal Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Naif S. Al Saglan
- Department of Internal Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ali Hawan
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Faisal S. Alqahtani
- Infectious Diseases and Notification Unit, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Roaa S. Almtheeb
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Magda S.R. Abdelwahab
- Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Mohammed A. AlFlan
- Department of Internal Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abdulaziz S.Y. Alfaifi
- Department of Internal Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohammed A. Alqahtani
- Department of Internal Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Fawwaz A. Alshafa
- Department of Internal Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ali A. Alsalem
- Department of Internal Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Yahya A. Al-Imamah
- Department of Internal Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Mohammed F. Attia
- Department of Critical Care, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ibrahim M.A. Mahmoud
- Department of Critical Care, Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region (AFHSR), Khamis Mushayt, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Critical Care, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
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12
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Lycholip V, Puronaitė R, Skorniakov V, Navickas P, Tarutytė G, Trinkūnas J, Burneikaitė G, Kazėnaitė E, Jankauskienė A. Assessment of the disease severity in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 based on the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) using statistical and machine learning methods: An electronic health records database analysis. Technol Health Care 2023; 31:2513-2524. [PMID: 37840515 DOI: 10.3233/thc-235016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was a cause of concern in the healthcare system and increased the need for disease severity indicators. However, they still vary in use to evaluate in-hospital outcomes and severity. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is routinely used to evaluate patient health status at the hospital. Further research is needed to ensure if NEWS can be a good instrument for an overall health status assessment with or without additional information like laboratory tests, intensive care needs, and history of chronic diseases. OBJECTIVE To evaluate if NEWS can be an indicator to measure COVID-19 patient status in-hospital. METHODS We used the fully anonymized Electronic Health Records (EHR) characterizing patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19. Data was obtained from Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos EHR system (SANTA-HIS) from 01-03-2020 to 31-12-2022. The study sample included 3875 patients. We created several statistical and machine learning models for discrimination between in-hospital death/discharge for evaluation NEWS as a disease severity measure for COVID-19 patients. In these models, two variable sets were considered: median NEWS and its combination with clinical parameters and medians of laboratory test results. Assessment of models' performance was based on the scoring metrics: accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve (AUC), and F1-score. RESULTS Our analysis revealed that NEWS predictive ability for describing patient health status during the stay in the hospital can be increased by adding the patient's age at hospitalization, gender, clinical and laboratory variables (0.853 sensitivity, 0.992 specificity and F1-score - 0.859) in comparison with single NEWS (0.603, 0.995, 0.719, respectively). A comparison of different models showed that stepwise logistic regression was the best method for in-hospital mortality classification. Our findings suggest employing models like ours for advisory routine usage. CONCLUSION Our model demonstrated incremental value for COVID-19 patient's status evaluation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valentinas Lycholip
- Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos, Vilnius, Lithuania
- Institute of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Roma Puronaitė
- Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos, Vilnius, Lithuania
- Institute of Data Science and Digital Technologies, Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Viktor Skorniakov
- Institute of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Petras Navickas
- Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos, Vilnius, Lithuania
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
- State Research Institute Centre for Innovative Medicine, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Gabrielė Tarutytė
- Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos, Vilnius, Lithuania
- Department of Research and Innovation, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Justas Trinkūnas
- Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos, Vilnius, Lithuania
- Faculty of Fundamental Sciences, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Greta Burneikaitė
- Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos, Vilnius, Lithuania
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Edita Kazėnaitė
- Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos, Vilnius, Lithuania
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Augustina Jankauskienė
- Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos, Vilnius, Lithuania
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
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13
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Martín-Rodríguez F, López-Izquierdo R, Sanz-García A, Ortega GJ, Del Pozo Vegas C, Delgado-Benito JF, Castro Villamor MA, Soriano JB. Prehospital Respiratory Early Warning Score for airway management in-ambulance: A score comparison. Eur J Clin Invest 2023; 53:e13875. [PMID: 36121346 DOI: 10.1111/eci.13875] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2022] [Revised: 08/30/2022] [Accepted: 09/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prehospital Respiratory Early Warning Scores to estimate the requirement for advanced respiratory support is needed. To develop a prehospital Respiratory Early Warning Score to estimate the requirement for advanced respiratory support. METHODS Multicentre, prospective, emergency medical services (EMS)-delivered, longitudinal cohort derivationvalidation study carried out in 59 ambulances and five hospitals across five Spanish provinces. Adults with acute diseases evaluated, supported and discharged to the Emergency Department with high priority were eligible. The primary outcome was the need for invasive or non-invasive respiratory support (NIRS or IRS) in the prehospital scope at the first contact with the patient. The measures included the following: epidemiological endpoints, prehospital vital signs (respiratory rate, pulse oximetry saturation, fraction of inspired oxygen, systolic and diastolic mean blood pressure, heart rate, tympanic temperature and consciousness level by the GCS). RESULTS Between 26 Oct 2018 and 26 Oct 2021, we enrolled 5793 cases. For NIRS prediction, the final model of the logistic regression included respiratory rate and pulse oximetry saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio. For the IRS case, the motor response from the Glasgow Coma Scale was also included. The REWS showed an AUC of 0.938 (95% CI: 0.918-0.958), a calibration-in-large of 0.026 and a higher net benefit as compared with the other scores. CONCLUSIONS Our results showed that REWS is a remarkably aid for the decision-making process in the management of advanced respiratory support in prehospital care. Including this score in the prehospital scenario could improve patients' care and optimise the resources' management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco Martín-Rodríguez
- Faculty of Medicine, Valladolid University, Valladolid, Spain.,Advanced Life Support, Emergency Medical Services (SACYL), Valladolid, Spain
| | - Raúl López-Izquierdo
- Faculty of Medicine, Valladolid University, Valladolid, Spain.,Emergency Department, Hospital Universitario Rio Hortega, Valladolid, Spain
| | - Ancor Sanz-García
- Data Analysis Unit, Health Research Institute, Hospital de la Princesa, Madrid, Spain
| | - Guillermo J Ortega
- Data Analysis Unit, Health Research Institute, Hospital de la Princesa, Madrid, Spain.,CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Carlos Del Pozo Vegas
- Faculty of Medicine, Valladolid University, Valladolid, Spain.,Emergency Department, Hospital Clínico Universitario, Valladolid, Spain
| | | | | | - Joan B Soriano
- Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.,Servicio de Neumología, Hospital Universitario de La Princesa, Madrid, Spain.,Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
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14
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Eldaboosy S, Almoosa Z, Saad M, Al Abdullah M, Farouk A, Awad A, Mahdy W, Abdelsalam E, Nour SO, Makled S, Shaarawy A, Kanany H, Qarah S, Kabil A. Comparison Between Physiological Scores SIPF, CURB-65, and APACHE II as Predictors of Prognosis and Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Multicenter Study, Saudi Arabia. Infect Drug Resist 2022; 15:7619-7630. [PMID: 36582451 PMCID: PMC9793736 DOI: 10.2147/idr.s395095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background A coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is associated with catastrophic effects on the world with high morbidity and mortality. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of physiological shock index (SIPF) (shock index and hypoxemia), CURB -65, acute physiology, and chronic health assessment II (APACHE II) as predictors of prognosis and in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods In Saudi Arabia, a multicenter retrospective study was conducted on hospitalized adult patients confirmed to have COVID-19 pneumonia. Information needed to calculate SIPF, CURB-65, and APACHE II scores were obtained from medical records within 24 hours of admission. Results The study included 1131 COVID-19 patients who met the inclusion criteria. They were divided into two groups: (A) the ICU group (n=340; 30.1%) and (B) the ward group (n=791; 69.9%). The most common concomitant diseases of patients at initial ICU admission were hypertension (71.5%) and diabetes (62.4%), and most of them were men (63.8%). The overall mortality was 18.7%, and the mortality rate was higher in the ICU group than in the ward group (39.4% vs 9.6%; p < 0.001). The SIPF score showed a significantly higher ability to predict both ICU admission and mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia compared with APACHE II and CURB -65; (AUC 0.89 vs 0.87; p < 0.001) and (AUC 0.89 vs 0.84; p < 0.001) for ICU admission and (AUC 0.90 vs 0.65; p < 0.001) and (AUC 0.90 vs 0.80; p < 0.001) for mortality, respectively. Conclusion The ability of the SIPF score to predict ICU admission and mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia is higher than that of APACHE II and CURB-65. The overall mortality was 18.7%, and the mortality rate was higher in the ICU group than in the ward group (39.4% vs 9.6%; p < 0.001).
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Affiliation(s)
- Safwat Eldaboosy
- Department of Chest Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt,Department of Pulmonary Diseases, Almoosa Specialist Hospital, Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia
| | - Zainab Almoosa
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Almoosa Specialist Hospital, Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mustafa Saad
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Almoosa Specialist Hospital, Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohammad Al Abdullah
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Almoosa Specialist Hospital, Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abdallah Farouk
- Department of Critical Care, Almoosa Specialist Hospital, Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia,Department of Critical Care, Alexandria Faculty of Medicine, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Amgad Awad
- Department of Nephrology and internal Medicine, Almoosa Specialist Hospital, Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia,Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Waheed Mahdy
- Department of Critical Care, Almoosa Specialist Hospital, Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia,Department of Chest Diseases, Banha Faculty of Medicine, Banha, Egypt
| | - Eman Abdelsalam
- Department of Internal Medicine, Al-Azhar Faculty of Medicine for Girls, Cairo, Egypt,Department of Internal Medicine, King Khalid Hospital, Hail, Saudi Arabia
| | - Sameh O Nour
- Department of Chest Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Sameh Makled
- Department of Chest Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Ahmed Shaarawy
- Department of Chest Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Hatem Kanany
- Department of Anesthesia and Critical Care, Faculty of Medicine, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Samer Qarah
- Department of Critical Care, Almoosa Specialist Hospital, Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ahmed Kabil
- Department of Chest Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt,Correspondence: Ahmed Kabil, Department of Chest diseases, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt, Tel +201006396601, Email
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15
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Evaluation of the effectiveness of quick COVID-19 Severity Index and COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score in determining mortality and severity in COVID-19. JOURNAL OF SURGERY AND MEDICINE 2022. [DOI: 10.28982/josam.1093344] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Background/Aim: With the COVID-19 pandemic, the increase in the number of patients admitted to the emergency department has led to an increase in the need for intensive care and mechanical ventilation. Methods that can predict the development of serious disease will allow for a more accurate use of resources. This study was conducted to test the ability of the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index and the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score to predict serious disease development and mortality.
Methods: This is a prospective cohort study. Among the patients admitted to the emergency department, those hospitalized due to COVID-19 were included in the study. The Quick COVID-19 Severity Index and COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Scores of the patients were calculated, and the ability of these scores to predict serious illness and mortality was investigated.
Results: A total of 556 patients were included in this study. Development of critical illness, described as the need for non-invasive / invasive ventilation or the need for intensive care unit admission, was found significant when the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index was above 5 and the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score showed high risk (AUC: 0.927; P < 0.001, AUC: 0.986; P < 0.001, respectively). A Quick COVID-19 Severity Index over 6 and COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score indicating high risk were found to be associated with mortality (AUC: 0.918, P < 0.001, AUC: 0.982, P < 0.001, respectively).
Conclusion: Both the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index and the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score can be used to assess severity in COVID-19 patients in the emergency room. However, the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score was more successful in differentiating low- and high-risk patients.
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16
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Nguyen-Michel VH, Houot M, Delorme C, Sangaré A, Gales A, Frazzini V, Hanin A, Aissani D, Trân T, Oquendo B, Ketz F, Lafuente-Lafuente C, Oasi C, Kinugawa K, Ouvrard G, Ursu R, Degos B, Rohaut B, Demeret S, Lambrecq V, Navarro V, Fournier E, Corvol JC, Borden A. Older patients with COVID-19 and neuropsychiatric conditions: A study of risk factors for mortality. Brain Behav 2022; 12:e2787. [PMID: 36355411 PMCID: PMC9759137 DOI: 10.1002/brb3.2787] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2022] [Revised: 09/05/2022] [Accepted: 09/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Little is known about risk factors for mortality in older patients with COVID-19 and neuropsychiatric conditions. METHODS We conducted a multicentric retrospective observational study at Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris. We selected inpatients aged 70 years or older, with COVID-19 and preexisting neuropsychiatric comorbidities and/or new neuropsychiatric manifestations. We examined demographics, comorbidities, functional status, and presentation including neuropsychiatric symptoms and disorders, as well as paraclinical data. Cox survival analysis was conducted to determine risk factors for mortality at 40 days after the first symptoms of COVID-19. RESULTS Out of 191 patients included (median age 80 [interquartile range 74-87]), 135 (71%) had neuropsychiatric comorbidities including cognitive impairment (39%), cerebrovascular disease (22%), Parkinsonism (6%), and brain tumors (6%). A total of 152 (79%) patients presented new-onset neuropsychiatric manifestations including sensory symptoms (6%), motor deficit (11%), behavioral (18%) and cognitive (23%) disturbances, gait impairment (11%), and impaired consciousness (18%). The mortality rate at 40 days was 19.4%. A history of brain tumor or Parkinsonism or the occurrence of impaired consciousness were neurological factors associated with a higher risk of mortality. A lower Activities of Daily Living score (hazard ratio [HR] 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.82), a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥ 9.9 (HR 5.69, 95% CI 2.69-12.0), and thrombocytopenia (HR 5.70, 95% CI 2.75-11.8) independently increased the risk of mortality (all p < .001). CONCLUSION Understanding mortality risk factors in older inpatients with COVID-19 and neuropsychiatric conditions may be helpful to neurologists and geriatricians who manage these patients in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vi-Huong Nguyen-Michel
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Charles-Foix Hospital Group, Clinical Neurophysiology Department, EEG-Epilepsy Unit, Functional Exploration Unit for the Older Patients, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Epileptology Unit, Paris, France
| | - Marion Houot
- Sorbonne Université, Paris Brain Institute - ICM, INSERM, CNRS, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Institut de la Mémoire et de la maladie d'Alzheimer, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Center of Excellence of Neurodegenerative Disease (CoEN), Paris, France
| | - Cécile Delorme
- Sorbonne Université, Paris Brain Institute - ICM, INSERM, CNRS, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Department of Neurology, Paris, France
| | - Aude Sangaré
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Charles-Foix Hospital Group, Clinical Neurophysiology Department, EEG-Epilepsy Unit, Functional Exploration Unit for the Older Patients, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, Paris Brain Institute - ICM, INSERM, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Ana Gales
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié Salpêtrière Hospital, Sleep Disorders Unit, Paris, France
| | - Valerio Frazzini
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Charles-Foix Hospital Group, Clinical Neurophysiology Department, EEG-Epilepsy Unit, Functional Exploration Unit for the Older Patients, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Epileptology Unit, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, Paris Brain Institute - ICM, INSERM, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Aurélie Hanin
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Charles-Foix Hospital Group, Clinical Neurophysiology Department, EEG-Epilepsy Unit, Functional Exploration Unit for the Older Patients, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Epileptology Unit, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, Paris Brain Institute - ICM, INSERM, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Djamal Aissani
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Charles-Foix Hospital Group, Department of Radiology, Paris, France
| | - Thanh Trân
- Pierre Bérégovoy Hospital, Neurological Unit, Nevers, France
| | - Bruno Oquendo
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Charles-Foix Hospital, Geriatric Department, Paris, France
| | - Flora Ketz
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Charles-Foix Hospital, Geriatric Department, Paris, France
| | | | - Christel Oasi
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Charles-Foix Hospital, Geriatric Department, Paris, France
| | - Kiyoka Kinugawa
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Charles-Foix Hospital Group, Clinical Neurophysiology Department, EEG-Epilepsy Unit, Functional Exploration Unit for the Older Patients, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, CNRS, UMR 8256 Biological Adaption and Aging, Paris, France
| | - Gaëlle Ouvrard
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Rothschild Hospital, Neurological Rehabilitation Unit, Paris, France
| | - Renata Ursu
- Université de Paris, AP-HP Nord, Saint-Louis Hospital, Neurological Unit, Paris, France
| | - Bertrand Degos
- Sorbonne Université Paris Nord, AP-HP, Avicenne Hospital, Department of Neurology, Bobigny, France
| | - Benjamin Rohaut
- Sorbonne Université, Paris Brain Institute - ICM, INSERM, CNRS, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Neurological Intensive Care Unit, Paris, France
| | - Sophie Demeret
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Neurological Intensive Care Unit, Paris, France
| | - Virginie Lambrecq
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Charles-Foix Hospital Group, Clinical Neurophysiology Department, EEG-Epilepsy Unit, Functional Exploration Unit for the Older Patients, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Epileptology Unit, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, Paris Brain Institute - ICM, INSERM, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Vincent Navarro
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Charles-Foix Hospital Group, Clinical Neurophysiology Department, EEG-Epilepsy Unit, Functional Exploration Unit for the Older Patients, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Epileptology Unit, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, Paris Brain Institute - ICM, INSERM, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Emmanuel Fournier
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Charles-Foix Hospital Group, Clinical Neurophysiology Department, EEG-Epilepsy Unit, Functional Exploration Unit for the Older Patients, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, Paris Brain Institute - ICM, INSERM, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Jean-Christophe Corvol
- Sorbonne Université, Paris Brain Institute - ICM, INSERM, CNRS, Paris, France.,Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Department of Neurology, Paris, France
| | - Alaina Borden
- Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière Charles-Foix Hospital Group, Clinical Neurophysiology Department, EEG-Epilepsy Unit, Functional Exploration Unit for the Older Patients, Paris, France
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17
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Caccialanza R, Formisano E, Klersy C, Ferretti V, Ferrari A, Demontis S, Mascheroni A, Masi S, Crotti S, Lobascio F, Cerutti N, Orlandoni P, Dalla Costa C, Redaelli E, Fabbri A, Malesci A, Corrao S, Bordandini L, Cereda E. Nutritional parameters associated with prognosis in non-critically ill hospitalized COVID-19 patients: The NUTRI-COVID19 study. Clin Nutr 2022; 41:2980-2987. [PMID: 34353669 PMCID: PMC8233046 DOI: 10.1016/j.clnu.2021.06.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2021] [Revised: 06/16/2021] [Accepted: 06/18/2021] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS To investigate the association between the parameters used in nutritional screening assessment (body mass index [BMI], unintentional weight loss [WL] and reduced food intake) and clinical outcomes in non-critically ill, hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. METHODS This was a prospective multicenter real-life study carried out during the first pandemic wave in 11 Italian Hospitals. In total, 1391 patients were included. The primary end-point was a composite of in-hospital mortality or admission to ICU, whichever came first. The key secondary end-point was in-hospital mortality. RESULTS Multivariable models were based on 1183 patients with complete data. Reduced self-reported food intake before hospitalization and/or expected by physicians in the next days since admission was found to have a negative prognostic impact for both the primary and secondary end-point (P < .001 for both). No association with BMI and WL was observed. Other predictors of outcomes were age and presence of multiple comorbidities. A significant interaction between obesity and multi-morbidity (≥2) was detected. Obesity was found to be a risk factor for composite end-point (HR = 1.36 [95%CI, 1.03-1.80]; P = .031) and a protective factor against in-hospital mortality (HR = 0.32 [95%CI, 0.20-0.51]; P < .001) in patients with and without multiple comorbidities, respectively. Secondary analysis (patients, N = 829), further adjusted for high C-reactive protein (>21 mg/dL) and LDH (>430 mU/mL) levels yielded consistent findings. CONCLUSIONS Reduced self-reported food intake before hospitalization and/or expected by physicians in the next days since admission was associated with negative clinical outcomes in non-critically ill, hospitalized COVID-19 patients. This simple and easily obtainable parameter may be useful to identify patients at highest risk of poor prognosis, who may benefit from prompt nutritional support. The presence of comorbidities could be the key factor, which may determine the protective or harmful role of a high body mass index in COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Riccardo Caccialanza
- Clinical Nutrition and Dietetics Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy,Corresponding author. Clinical Nutrition and Dietetics Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Viale Golgi 19, 27100, Pavia, Italy. Fax: +39 0382 502801
| | - Elena Formisano
- Clinical Nutrition and Dietetics Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy
| | - Catherine Klersy
- Biometry and Clinical Epidemiology Service, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy
| | - Virginia Ferretti
- Biometry and Clinical Epidemiology Service, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy
| | - Alessandra Ferrari
- Medical Oncology Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy
| | | | - Annalisa Mascheroni
- Clinical Nutrition and Dietetics Unit - ASST Melegnano e Martesana, Melegnano (Milano), Italy
| | - Sara Masi
- Clinical Nutrition and Dietetics Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy
| | - Silvia Crotti
- Clinical Nutrition and Dietetics Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy
| | - Federica Lobascio
- Clinical Nutrition and Dietetics Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy
| | - Nadia Cerutti
- Medicine and Dietetics Unit, ASST Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | | | - Cloè Dalla Costa
- Clinical Nutrition Unit, Michele e Pietro Ferrero Hospital, Verduno (Cuneo), Italy
| | - Elena Redaelli
- UOSD Endocrinology and Clinical Nutrition ASST Lecco, Lecco Hospital, Lecco, Italy
| | - Alessandra Fabbri
- Artificial Nutrition Interprofessional Group, Local Health Unit-IRCCS of Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Alberto Malesci
- Division of Gastroenterology and Digestive Endoscopy, Department of Gastroenterology, Humanitas Research Hospital, Rozzano, Milano, Italy
| | - Salvatore Corrao
- Department of Health Promotion Sciences, Maternal and Infant Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (PROMISE), University of Palermo, Italy,COVID Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, National Relevance and High Specialization Hospital Trust ARNAS Civico, Di Cristina, Benfratelli, Palermo, Italy
| | - Lorella Bordandini
- Clinical Nutrition and Dietetic Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, AUSL Della Romagna, S.Maria Delle Croci Hospital, Ravenna, Italy
| | - Emanuele Cereda
- Clinical Nutrition and Dietetics Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy
| | - NUTRI-COVID19 Collaborative Working Group1CaccialanzaRiccardooFormisanoElenaoKlersyCatherineoFerrettiVirginiaoFerrariAlessandraoMasiSaraoCrottiSilviaoLobascioFedericaoCeredaEmanueleoBrunoRaffaeleoMontecuccoCarlo MauriziooCorsicoAngelo GuidooBelliatoMirkooDi SabatinoAntoniooLudovisiSerenaoBoglioloLauraoMarianiFrancescaoMuggiaChiaraoCroceGabrieleoBarteselliChiaraoMambellaJacopooDi TerlizziFrancescooCostaCloè DallaPLentaElenaPNigroEmanuelaPMascheroniAnnalisaqMerelliElisaqMisottiAlessandro Mariaqde MonteAndreaqRedaelliElenarLauraLaura IoriorRossiPaolarCeruttiNadiasFavaretoFlaviasPisocriElisasCimorelliManuelasOrlandoniPaolotVenturiniClaudiatFabbriAlessandrauVaccaroSalvatoreuBodecchiSimonauMonzaliElisauMalesciAlbertovCraviottoVincenzovOmodeiPaolo DariovPreatoniPaolettavPastoreManuelavDa RioLeonardovDemontisStefaniawIvaldiCeciliawSferrazzoElsawArietaLorenzinawNattaErikawCorraoSalvatorexBocchioRaffaella MollacixBordandiniLorellayPalmeseFrancescoyGrazianiAlessandroyFondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, ItalyMichele e Pietro Ferrero Hospital, Verduno (Cuneo), ItalyASST Melegnano-Martesana, Melegnano (MI), ItalyASST Lecco, Lecco Hospital, Lecco, ItalyASST Pavia, Pavia, ItalyIRCCS-INRCA, Ancona, ItalyLocal Health Unit-IRCCS of Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, ItalyHumanitas Research Hospital and Humanitas University, Rozzano, Milano, ItalyGiovanni Borea Civil Hospital, Sanremo, ItalyNational Relevance and High Specialization Hospital Trust ARNAS Civico, Di Cristina, Benfratelli, Palermo, ItalyAUSL della Romagna, S.Maria delle Croci Hospital, Ravenna, Italy
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18
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Martín-Rodríguez F, Sanz-García A, Ortega GJ, Delgado-Benito JF, García Villena E, Mazas Pérez-Oleaga C, López-Izquierdo R, Castro Villamor MA. One-on-one comparison between qCSI and NEWS scores for mortality risk assessment in patients with COVID-19. Ann Med 2022; 54:646-654. [PMID: 35193439 PMCID: PMC8881067 DOI: 10.1080/07853890.2022.2042590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To compare the predictive value of the quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI) and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for 90-day mortality amongst COVID-19 patients. METHODS Multicenter retrospective cohort study conducted in adult patients transferred by ambulance to an emergency department (ED) with suspected COVID-19 infection subsequently confirmed by a SARS-CoV-2 test (polymerase chain reaction). We collected epidemiological data, clinical covariates (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, temperature, level of consciousness and use of supplemental oxygen) and hospital variables. The primary outcome was cumulative all-cause mortality during a 90-day follow-up, with mortality assessment monitoring time points at 1, 2, 7, 14, 30 and 90 days from ED attendance. Comparison of performances for 90-day mortality between both scores was carried out by univariate analysis. RESULTS From March to November 2020, we included 2,961 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (median age 79 years, IQR 66-88), with 49.2% females. The qCSI score provided an AUC ranging from 0.769 (1-day mortality) to 0.749 (90-day mortality), whereas AUCs for NEWS ranging from 0.825 for 1-day mortality to 0.777 for 90-day mortality. At all-time points studied, differences between both scores were statistically significant (p < .001). CONCLUSION Patients with SARS-CoV-2 can rapidly develop bilateral pneumonias with multiorgan disease; in these cases, in which an evacuation by the EMS is required, reliable scores for an early identification of patients with risk of clinical deterioration are critical. The NEWS score provides not only better prognostic results than those offered by qCSI at all the analyzed time points, but it is also better suited for COVID-19 patients.KEY MESSAGESThis work aims to determine whether NEWS is the best score for mortality risk assessment in patients with COVID-19.AUCs for NEWS ranged from 0.825 for 1-day mortality to 0.777 for 90-day mortality and were significantly higher than those for qCSI in these same outcomes.NEWS provides a better prognostic capacity than the qCSI score and allows for long-term (90 days) mortality risk assessment of COVID-19 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco Martín-Rodríguez
- Unidad Móvil de Emergencias Valladolid I, Gerencia de Emergencias Sanitarias, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), Valladolid, Spain.,Centro de Simulación Clínica Avanzada, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
| | - Ancor Sanz-García
- Data Analysis Unit, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Hospital de la Princesa (IIS-IP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Guillermo J Ortega
- Data Analysis Unit, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Hospital de la Princesa (IIS-IP), Madrid, Spain.,Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Juan F Delgado-Benito
- Unidad Móvil de Emergencias de Salamanca, Gerencia de Emergencias Sanitarias, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), Valladolid, Spain
| | - Eduardo García Villena
- Escuela Politécnica Superior, Universidad Europea del Atlántico, Santander, Spain.,Departamento de Medio Ambiente y Sostenibilidad, Universidad Internacional Iberoamericana, Arecibo, Puerto Rico (EE.UU)
| | | | - Raúl López-Izquierdo
- Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital Universitario Rio Hortega de Valladolid, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), Valladolid, Spain
| | - Miguel A Castro Villamor
- Centro de Simulación Clínica Avanzada, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
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19
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Häger L, Wendland P, Biergans S, Lederer S, de Arruda Botelho Herr M, Erhardt C, Schmauder K, Kschischo M, Malek NP, Bunk S, Bitzer M, Gladstone BP, Göpel S. External Validation of COVID-19 Risk Scores during Three Waves of Pandemic in a German Cohort-A Retrospective Study. J Pers Med 2022; 12:jpm12111775. [PMID: 36579493 PMCID: PMC9693591 DOI: 10.3390/jpm12111775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2022] [Revised: 10/21/2022] [Accepted: 10/24/2022] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Several risk scores were developed during the COVID-19 pandemic to identify patients at risk for critical illness as a basic step to personalizing medicine even in pandemic circumstances. However, the generalizability of these scores with regard to different populations, clinical settings, healthcare systems, and new epidemiological circumstances is unknown. The aim of our study was to compare the predictive validity of qSOFA, CRB65, NEWS, COVID-GRAM, and 4C-Mortality score. In a monocentric retrospective cohort, consecutively hospitalized adults with COVID-19 from February 2020 to June 2021 were included; risk scores at admission were calculated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the precision-recall curve were compared using DeLong's method and a bootstrapping approach. A total of 347 patients were included; 23.6% were admitted to the ICU, and 9.2% died in a hospital. NEWS and 4C-Score performed best for the outcomes ICU admission and in-hospital mortality. The easy-to-use bedside score NEWS has proven to identify patients at risk for critical illness, whereas the more complex COVID-19-specific scores 4C and COVID-GRAM were not superior. Decreasing mortality and ICU-admission rates affected the discriminatory ability of all scores. A further evaluation of risk assessment is needed in view of new and rapidly changing epidemiological evolution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lukas Häger
- Department of Internal Medicine 1, University Hospital Tübingen, Otfried-Müllerstrasse 10, 72076 Tubingen, Germany
| | - Philipp Wendland
- Department of Mathematics and Technology, University of Applied Sciences Koblenz, Joseph-Rovan-Allee 2, 53424 Remagen, Germany
| | - Stephanie Biergans
- Medical Data Integration Center (meDIC), University Hospital Tübingen, Schaffhausenstraße 77, 72072 Tubingen, Germany
| | - Simone Lederer
- Medical Data Integration Center (meDIC), University Hospital Tübingen, Schaffhausenstraße 77, 72072 Tubingen, Germany
| | - Marius de Arruda Botelho Herr
- Medical Data Integration Center (meDIC), University Hospital Tübingen, Schaffhausenstraße 77, 72072 Tubingen, Germany
| | - Christian Erhardt
- Medical Data Integration Center (meDIC), University Hospital Tübingen, Schaffhausenstraße 77, 72072 Tubingen, Germany
| | - Kristina Schmauder
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hospital Hygiene, University Hospital Tübingen, Elfriede-Aulhorn-Str. 6, 72076 Tubingen, Germany
| | - Maik Kschischo
- Department of Mathematics and Technology, University of Applied Sciences Koblenz, Joseph-Rovan-Allee 2, 53424 Remagen, Germany
| | - Nisar Peter Malek
- Department of Internal Medicine 1, University Hospital Tübingen, Otfried-Müllerstrasse 10, 72076 Tubingen, Germany
| | - Stefanie Bunk
- Department of Internal Medicine 1, University Hospital Tübingen, Otfried-Müllerstrasse 10, 72076 Tubingen, Germany
| | - Michael Bitzer
- Department of Internal Medicine 1, University Hospital Tübingen, Otfried-Müllerstrasse 10, 72076 Tubingen, Germany
| | - Beryl Primrose Gladstone
- Department of Internal Medicine 1, University Hospital Tübingen, Otfried-Müllerstrasse 10, 72076 Tubingen, Germany
- Clinical Research Unit for Health Care Associated Infections, German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Otfried-Müllerstrasse 10, 72076 Tubingen, Germany
| | - Siri Göpel
- Department of Internal Medicine 1, University Hospital Tübingen, Otfried-Müllerstrasse 10, 72076 Tubingen, Germany
- Clinical Research Unit for Health Care Associated Infections, German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Otfried-Müllerstrasse 10, 72076 Tubingen, Germany
- Correspondence:
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20
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Sebastian A, Madziarski M, Madej M, Proc K, Szymala-Pędzik M, Żórawska J, Gronek M, Morgiel E, Kujawa K, Skarupski M, Trocha M, Rola P, Gawryś J, Letachowicz K, Doroszko A, Adamik B, Kaliszewski K, Kiliś-Pstrusińska K, Matera-Witkiewicz A, Pomorski M, Protasiewicz M, Sokołowski J, Jankowska EA, Madziarska K. The Usefulness of the COVID-GRAM Score in Predicting the Outcomes of Study Population with COVID-19. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:12537. [PMID: 36231836 PMCID: PMC9566437 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191912537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Revised: 09/23/2022] [Accepted: 09/26/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-GRAM is a clinical risk rating score for predicting the prognosis of hospitalized COVID-19 infected patients. AIM Our study aimed to evaluate the use of the COVID-GRAM score in patients with COVID-19 based on the data from the COronavirus in the LOwer Silesia (COLOS) registry. MATERIAL AND METHODS The study group (834 patients of Caucasian patients) was retrospectively divided into three arms according to the risk achieved on the COVID-GRAM score calculated at the time of hospital admission (between February 2020 and July 2021): low, medium, and high risk. The Omnibus chi-square test, Fisher test, and Welch ANOVA were used in the statistical analysis. Post-hoc analysis for continuous variables was performed using Tukey's correction with the Games-Howell test. Additionally, the ROC analysis was performed over time using inverse probability of censorship (IPCW) estimation. The GRAM-COVID score was estimated from the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS Most patients (65%) had a low risk of complications on the COVID-GRAM scale. There were 113 patients in the high-risk group (13%). In the medium- and high-risk groups, comorbidities occurred statistically significantly more often, e.g., hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation and flutter, heart failure, valvular disease, chronic kidney disease, and obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), compared to low-risk tier subjects. These individuals were also patients with a higher incidence of neurological and cardiac complications in the past. Low saturation of oxygen values on admission, changes in C-reactive protein, leukocytosis, hyperglycemia, and procalcitonin level were associated with an increased risk of death during hospitalization. The troponin level was an independent mortality factor. A change from low to medium category reduced the overall survival probability by more than 8 times and from low to high by 25 times. The factor with the strongest impact on survival was the absence of other diseases. The medium-risk patient group was more likely to require dialysis during hospitalization. The need for antibiotics was more significant in the high-risk group on the GRAM score. CONCLUSION The COVID-GRAM score corresponds well with total mortality. The factor with the strongest impact on survival was the absence of other diseases. The worst prognosis was for patients who were unconscious during admission. Patients with higher COVID-GRAM score were significantly less likely to return to full health during follow-up. There is a continuing need to develop reliable, easy-to-adopt tools for stratifying the course of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Agata Sebastian
- Department of Rheumatology and Internal Medicine, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Marcin Madziarski
- Department of Rheumatology and Internal Medicine, University Hospital, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Marta Madej
- Department of Rheumatology and Internal Medicine, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Krzysztof Proc
- Department of Rheumatology and Internal Medicine, University Hospital, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Małgorzata Szymala-Pędzik
- Clinical Department of Geriatrics, Wroclaw Medical University, Pasteura 4 Street, 50-367 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Joanna Żórawska
- Clinical Department of Geriatrics, Wroclaw Medical University, Pasteura 4 Street, 50-367 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Michał Gronek
- Clinical Department of Angiology, Hypertension and Diabetology, University Hospital, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Ewa Morgiel
- Department of Rheumatology and Internal Medicine, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Krzysztof Kujawa
- Statistical Analysis Centre, Wroclaw Medical University, K. Marcinkowski Street 2-6, 50-368 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Marek Skarupski
- Faculty of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wybrzeze Wyspianskiego Street 27, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Małgorzata Trocha
- Department of Pharmacology, Wroclaw Medical University, Mikulicz-Radecki Street 2, 50-345 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Piotr Rola
- Department of Cardiology, Provincial Specialized Hospital, Iwaszkiewicza 5 Street, 59-220 Legnica, Poland
| | - Jakub Gawryś
- Clinical Department of Internal and Occupational Diseases, Hypertension and Clinical Oncology, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Krzysztof Letachowicz
- Clinical Department of Nephrology and Transplantation Medicine, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Adrian Doroszko
- Clinical Department of Internal and Occupational Diseases, Hypertension and Clinical Oncology, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Barbara Adamik
- Clinical Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Therapy, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Krzysztof Kaliszewski
- Clinical Department of General, Minimally Invasive and Endocrine Surgery, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Katarzyna Kiliś-Pstrusińska
- Clinical Department of Paediatric Nephrology, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Agnieszka Matera-Witkiewicz
- Screening of Biological Activity Assays and Collection of Biological Material Laboratory, Wroclaw Medical University Biobank, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 211A, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Michał Pomorski
- Clinical Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Marcin Protasiewicz
- Clinical Department and Clinic of Cardiology, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Janusz Sokołowski
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Ewa Anita Jankowska
- Institute of Heart Diseases, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
- Institute of Heart Diseases, University Hospital in Wroclaw, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Katarzyna Madziarska
- Clinical Department of Nephrology and Transplantation Medicine, Wroclaw Medical University, Borowska Street 213, 50-556 Wroclaw, Poland
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21
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Riley JM, Moeller PJ, Crawford AG, Schaefer JW, Cheney-Peters DR, Venkataraman CM, Li CJ, Smaltz CM, Bradley CG, Lee CY, Fitzpatrick DM, Ney DB, Zaret DS, Chalikonda DM, Mairose JD, Chauhan K, Szot MV, Jones RB, Bashir-Hamidu R, Mitsuhashi S, Kubey AA. External validation of the COVID-19 4C mortality score in an urban United States cohort. Am J Med Sci 2022; 364:409-413. [PMID: 35500663 PMCID: PMC9054702 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjms.2022.04.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2021] [Revised: 03/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/22/2022] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Identifying patients at risk for mortality from COVID-19 is crucial to triage, clinical decision-making, and the allocation of scarce hospital resources. The 4C Mortality Score effectively predicts COVID-19 mortality, but it has not been validated in a United States (U.S.) population. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the 4C Mortality Score accurately predicts COVID-19 mortality in an urban U.S. adult inpatient population. METHODS This retrospective cohort study included adult patients admitted to a single-center, tertiary care hospital (Philadelphia, PA) with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR from 3/01/2020 to 6/06/2020. Variables were extracted through a combination of automated export and manual chart review. The outcome of interest was mortality during hospital admission or within 30 days of discharge. RESULTS This study included 426 patients; mean age was 64.4 years, 43.4% were female, and 54.5% self-identified as Black or African American. All-cause mortality was observed in 71 patients (16.7%). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of the 4C Mortality Score was 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.89). CONCLUSIONS Clinicians may use the 4C Mortality Score in an urban, majority Black, U.S. inpatient population. The derivation and validation cohorts were treated in the pre-vaccine era so the 4C Score may over-predict mortality in current patient populations. With stubbornly high inpatient mortality rates, however, the 4C Score remains one of the best tools available to date to inform thoughtful triage and treatment allocation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua M. Riley
- Sidney Kimmel Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Patrick J. Moeller
- Jefferson College of Population Health, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Albert G. Crawford
- Jefferson College of Population Health, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Joseph W. Schaefer
- Sidney Kimmel Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Dianna R. Cheney-Peters
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Chantel M. Venkataraman
- Internal Medicine Residency, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Chris J. Li
- Sidney Kimmel Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Christa M. Smaltz
- Internal Medicine Residency, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Conor G. Bradley
- Sidney Kimmel Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Crystal Y. Lee
- Sidney Kimmel Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Danielle M. Fitzpatrick
- Internal Medicine Residency, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - David B. Ney
- Sidney Kimmel Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Dina S. Zaret
- Sidney Kimmel Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Divya M. Chalikonda
- Internal Medicine Residency, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Joshua D. Mairose
- Sidney Kimmel Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Kashyap Chauhan
- Internal Medicine Residency, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Margaret V. Szot
- Internal Medicine Residency, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Robert B. Jones
- Internal Medicine Residency, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Rukaiya Bashir-Hamidu
- Internal Medicine Residency, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Shuji Mitsuhashi
- Internal Medicine Residency, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Alan A. Kubey
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA, USA,Division of Hospital Internal Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Rochester, MN, USA,Corresponding author at: Alan A. Kubey, MD, Division of Hospital Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, 833 Chestnut Street, Suite 701, Philadelphia, PA 19107, USA
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22
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Hassan S, Ramspek CL, Ferrari B, van Diepen M, Rossio R, Knevel R, la Mura V, Artoni A, Martinelli I, Bandera A, Nobili A, Gori A, Blasi F, Canetta C, Montano N, Rosendaal FR, Peyvandi F. External validation of risk scores to predict in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized due to coronavirus disease 2019. Eur J Intern Med 2022; 102:63-71. [PMID: 35697562 PMCID: PMC9174149 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejim.2022.06.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2022] [Revised: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents an urgent threat to global health. Prediction models that accurately estimate mortality risk in hospitalized patients could assist medical staff in treatment and allocating limited resources. AIMS To externally validate two promising previously published risk scores that predict in-hospital mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. METHODS Two prospective cohorts were available; a cohort of 1028 patients admitted to one of nine hospitals in Lombardy, Italy (the Lombardy cohort) and a cohort of 432 patients admitted to a hospital in Leiden, the Netherlands (the Leiden cohort). The endpoint was in-hospital mortality. All patients were adult and tested COVID-19 PCR-positive. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed. RESULTS The C-statistic of the 4C mortality score was good in the Lombardy cohort (0.85, 95CI: 0.82-0.89) and in the Leiden cohort (0.87, 95CI: 0.80-0.94). Model calibration was acceptable in the Lombardy cohort but poor in the Leiden cohort due to the model systematically overpredicting the mortality risk for all patients. The C-statistic of the CURB-65 score was good in the Lombardy cohort (0.80, 95CI: 0.75-0.85) and in the Leiden cohort (0.82, 95CI: 0.76-0.88). The mortality rate in the CURB-65 development cohort was much lower than the mortality rate in the Lombardy cohort. A similar but less pronounced trend was found for patients in the Leiden cohort. CONCLUSION Although performances did not differ greatly, the 4C mortality score showed the best performance. However, because of quickly changing circumstances, model recalibration may be necessary before using the 4C mortality score.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shermarke Hassan
- Dipartimento di Fisiopatologia Medico-Chirurgica e dei Trapianti, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Francesco Sforza 35, Milan 20122, Italy; Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands.
| | - Chava L Ramspek
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Barbara Ferrari
- U.O.C. Medicina Generale Emostasi e Trombosi, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Merel van Diepen
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Raffaella Rossio
- U.O.C. Medicina Generale Emostasi e Trombosi, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Rachel Knevel
- Department of Rheumatology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Vincenzo la Mura
- Dipartimento di Fisiopatologia Medico-Chirurgica e dei Trapianti, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Francesco Sforza 35, Milan 20122, Italy; U.O.C. Medicina Generale Emostasi e Trombosi, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Andrea Artoni
- Angelo Bianchi Bonomi Hemophilia and Thrombosis Centre, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Ida Martinelli
- Angelo Bianchi Bonomi Hemophilia and Thrombosis Centre, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Alessandra Bandera
- Dipartimento di Fisiopatologia Medico-Chirurgica e dei Trapianti, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Francesco Sforza 35, Milan 20122, Italy; Infectious Disease Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Alessandro Nobili
- Department of Health Policy, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Andrea Gori
- Dipartimento di Fisiopatologia Medico-Chirurgica e dei Trapianti, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Francesco Sforza 35, Milan 20122, Italy; Infectious Disease Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Francesco Blasi
- Dipartimento di Fisiopatologia Medico-Chirurgica e dei Trapianti, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Francesco Sforza 35, Milan 20122, Italy; Respiratory Unit and Cystic Fibrosis Adult Center, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Ciro Canetta
- Department of Medicine, High Care Internal Medicine Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Nicola Montano
- Medicina Generale Immunologia e Allergologia, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Frits R Rosendaal
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Flora Peyvandi
- Dipartimento di Fisiopatologia Medico-Chirurgica e dei Trapianti, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Francesco Sforza 35, Milan 20122, Italy; U.O.C. Medicina Generale Emostasi e Trombosi, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.
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23
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ÇELİK ÇO, ÇIFTCI O, ÖZER N, MÜDERRİSOĞLU H. COVID-19'da hastane içi mortaliteyi tahmin etmede enflamatuvar temelli parametrelerin ve MELD-XI skorunun 4C mortalite skoru ile karşılaştırılması. CUKUROVA MEDICAL JOURNAL 2022. [DOI: 10.17826/cumj.1050872] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose: In this study, we compared the roles of inflammatory parameters such as neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), C-reactive protein/lymphocyte ratio (CLR), monocyte/lymphocyte ratio (MLR), neutrophil/platelet ratio (NPR), neutrophil/monocyte ratio (NMR), CRP/albumin ratio (CAR), BUN/albumin ratio (BAR), MELD-XI score and 4C mortality score in predicting in-hospital mortality risk in COVID-19.
Materials and Methods: A total of 117 patients over 18 years old with a PCR-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 between June 2020 and February 2021 were retrospectively included. The roles of parameters for independently predicting in-hospital mortality were determined and compared with each other using appropriate statistical methods.
Results: Age, chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, acute kidney injury, and length of hospital stay, urea, creatinine, LDH, AST, ferritin, D-dimer, CRP, albumin, Hb, CLR, BAR, CAR, MELD-XI score, and 4C mortality score were significantly correlated to in-hospital mortality. However, only the 4C mortality score and AST independently predicted in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 [OR 2.08 (%95 CI 1.06-2.36), for 4C mortality score, and OR 1.05 (%95 CI 1.00-1.10), for AST].
Conclusion: Unlike other mortality-related inflammatory parameters, the 4C mortality score and AST were independent and strong predictors of mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Orçun ÇIFTCI
- Başkent University Ankara Training and Research Hospital
| | - Nurtaç ÖZER
- Başkent University Konya Practise and Research Hospital
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24
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Chang AY, Babb KN. One-Year Report of COVID-19 Impact on Geriatric Patients: a Bio-Psycho-Social Approach. Can Geriatr J 2022; 25:212-221. [PMID: 35747408 PMCID: PMC9156418 DOI: 10.5770/cgj.25.553] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Since December of 2019, coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly around the world. Our understanding of the infection has grown over the past year, and its impact on older adults is particularly significant. Apart from the direct impacts of COVID-19 infections, it has also led to lockdowns which, in turn, result in isolation and loneliness. Method We conducted a literature review of publicly available articles of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the geriatric population between December 2019 and April 2021, a total of 748 articles. Results The review will be presented with the Bio-Psycho-Social model, covering how the biological, psychological, and sociological aspects of health are intertwined and impact older adults. Early studies have also highlighted the prevalence of post-COVID infection symptoms that typically fall under geriatric medicine care. We highlight the bidirectional impact of isolation and COVID-19 infections on geriatric health, as well as discuss pertinent topics such as vaccine efficacy, long-term sequelae of COVID-19 infections, and ageism. Conclusion This review seeks to present a one-year report of what is known about COVID-19 and geriatric medicine, as well as provide guidance to practitioners who care for older adults based on the most up-to-date literature.
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25
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Kibar Akilli I, Bilge M, Uslu Guz A, Korkusuz R, Canbolat Unlu E, Kart Yasar K. Comparison of Pneumonia Severity Indices, qCSI, 4C-Mortality Score and qSOFA in Predicting Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia. J Pers Med 2022; 12:801. [PMID: 35629223 PMCID: PMC9144423 DOI: 10.3390/jpm12050801] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2022] [Revised: 05/08/2022] [Accepted: 05/11/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
This is a retrospective and observational study on 1511 patients with SARS-CoV-2, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 by real-time PCR testing and hospitalized due to COVID-19 pneumonia. 1511 patients, 879 male (58.17%) and 632 female (41.83%) with a mean age of 60.1 ± 14.7 were included in the study. Survivors and non-survivors groups were statistically compared with respect to survival, discharge, ICU admission and in-hospital death. Although gender was not statistically significant different between two groups, 80 (60.15%) of the patients who died were male. Mean age was 72.8 ± 11.8 in non-survivors vs. 59.9 ± 14.7 in survivors (p < 0.001). Overall in-hospital mortality was found to be 8.8% (133/1511 cases), and overall ICU admission was 10.85% (164/1511 cases). The PSI/PORT score of the non-survivors group was higher than that of the survivors group (144.38 ± 28.64 versus 67.17 ± 25.63, p < 0.001). The PSI/PORT yielding the highest performance was the best predictor for in-hospital mortality, since it incorporates the factors as advanced age and comorbidity (AUROC 0.971; % 95 CI 0.961−0.981). The use of A-DROP may also be preferred as an easier alternative to PSI/PORT, which is a time-consuming evaluation although it is more comprehensive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isil Kibar Akilli
- Department of Pulmonary Disease, Bakirkoy Dr. Sadi Konuk Training and Research Hospital, University of Health Sciences, Dr. Tevfik Saglam Street, No. 11, Bakirkoy, Istanbul 34147, Turkey
| | - Muge Bilge
- Department of Internal Medicine, Bakirkoy Dr. Sadi Konuk Training and Research Hospital, University of Health Sciences, Dr. Tevfik Saglam Street, No. 11, Bakirkoy, Istanbul 34147, Turkey;
| | - Arife Uslu Guz
- Department of Pulmonary Disease, Mehmet Akif Ersoy Training and Research Hospital, University of Health Sciences, Turgut Ozal Boulevard, No. 11, Kucukcekmece, Istanbul 34303, Turkey;
| | - Ramazan Korkusuz
- Department of Infectious Disease, Bakirkoy Dr. Sadi Konuk Training and Research Hospital, University of Health Sciences, Dr. Tevfik Saglam Street, No. 11, Bakirkoy, Istanbul 34147, Turkey; (R.K.); (E.C.U.); (K.K.Y.)
| | - Esra Canbolat Unlu
- Department of Infectious Disease, Bakirkoy Dr. Sadi Konuk Training and Research Hospital, University of Health Sciences, Dr. Tevfik Saglam Street, No. 11, Bakirkoy, Istanbul 34147, Turkey; (R.K.); (E.C.U.); (K.K.Y.)
| | - Kadriye Kart Yasar
- Department of Infectious Disease, Bakirkoy Dr. Sadi Konuk Training and Research Hospital, University of Health Sciences, Dr. Tevfik Saglam Street, No. 11, Bakirkoy, Istanbul 34147, Turkey; (R.K.); (E.C.U.); (K.K.Y.)
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26
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Degarege A, Naveed Z, Kabayundo J, Brett-Major D. Heterogeneity and Risk of Bias in Studies Examining Risk Factors for Severe Illness and Death in COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Pathogens 2022; 11:563. [PMID: 35631084 PMCID: PMC9147100 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens11050563] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2022] [Revised: 05/02/2022] [Accepted: 05/05/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
This systematic review and meta-analysis synthesized the evidence on the impacts of demographics and comorbidities on the clinical outcomes of COVID-19, as well as the sources of the heterogeneity and publication bias of the relevant studies. Two authors independently searched the literature from PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library, and CINAHL on 18 May 2021; removed duplicates; screened the titles, abstracts, and full texts by using criteria; and extracted data from the eligible articles. The variations among the studies were examined by using Cochrane, Q.; I2, and meta-regression. Out of 11,975 articles that were obtained from the databases and screened, 559 studies were abstracted, and then, where appropriate, were analyzed by meta-analysis (n = 542). COVID-19-related severe illness, admission to the ICU, and death were significantly correlated with comorbidities, male sex, and an age older than 60 or 65 years, although high heterogeneity was present in the pooled estimates. The study design, the study country, the sample size, and the year of publication contributed to this. There was publication bias among the studies that compared the odds of COVID-19-related deaths, severe illness, and admission to the ICU on the basis of the comorbidity status. While an older age and chronic diseases were shown to increase the risk of developing severe illness, admission to the ICU, and death among the COVID-19 patients in our analysis, a marked heterogeneity was present when linking the specific risks with the outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abraham Degarege
- Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE 68198, USA; (Z.N.); (J.K.); (D.B.-M.)
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27
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Long B, Carius BM, Chavez S, Liang SY, Brady WJ, Koyfman A, Gottlieb M. Clinical update on COVID-19 for the emergency clinician: Presentation and evaluation. Am J Emerg Med 2022; 54:46-57. [PMID: 35121478 PMCID: PMC8779861 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2022.01.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 116] [Impact Index Per Article: 58.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2021] [Revised: 01/01/2022] [Accepted: 01/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in millions of cases worldwide. As the pandemic has progressed, the understanding of this disease has evolved. OBJECTIVE This first in a two-part series on COVID-19 updates provides a focused overview of the presentation and evaluation of COVID-19 for emergency clinicians. DISCUSSION COVID-19, caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Several variants exist, including a variant of concern known as Delta (B.1.617.2 lineage) and the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529 lineage). The Delta variant is associated with higher infectivity and poor patient outcomes, and the Omicron variant has resulted in a significant increase in infections. While over 80% of patients experience mild symptoms, a significant proportion can be critically ill, including those who are older and those with comorbidities. Upper respiratory symptoms, fever, and changes in taste/smell remain the most common presenting symptoms. Extrapulmonary complications are numerous and may be severe, including the cardiovascular, neurologic, gastrointestinal, and dermatologic systems. Emergency department evaluation includes focused testing for COVID-19 and assessment of end-organ injury. Imaging may include chest radiography, computed tomography, or ultrasound. Several risk scores may assist in prognostication, including the 4C (Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium) score, quick COVID Severity Index (qCSI), NEWS2, and the PRIEST score, but these should only supplement and not replace clinical judgment. CONCLUSION This review provides a focused update of the presentation and evaluation of COVID-19 for emergency clinicians.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brit Long
- SAUSHEC, Emergency Medicine, Brooke Army Medical Center, Fort Sam Houston, TX, USA.
| | | | - Summer Chavez
- Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Georgetown University Hospital, 3800 Reservoir Road, NW, Washington, DC 20007, United States
| | - Stephen Y Liang
- Divisions of Emergency Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Washington University School of Medicine, 660 S. Euclid Ave, St. Louis, MO 63110, United States.
| | - William J Brady
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, United States.
| | - Alex Koyfman
- The University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Department of Emergency Medicine, 5323 Harry Hines Boulevard, Dallas, TX 75390, United States
| | - Michael Gottlieb
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL, United States
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Holland M, Kellett J. A systematic review of the discrimination and absolute mortality predicted by the National Early Warning Scores according to different cut-off values and prediction windows. Eur J Intern Med 2022; 98:15-26. [PMID: 34980504 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejim.2021.12.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2021] [Revised: 12/22/2021] [Accepted: 12/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although early warning scores were intended to simply identify patients in need of life-saving interventions, prediction has become their commonest metric. This review examined variation in the ability of the National Early Warning Scores (NEWS) in adult patients to predict absolute mortality at different times and cut-offs values. METHOD Following PRISMA guidelines, all studies reporting NEWS and NEWS2 providing enough information to fulfil the review's aims were included. RESULTS From 121 papers identified, the average area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) for mortality declined from 0.90 at 24-hours to 0.76 at 30-days. Studies with a low overall mortality had a higher AUC for 24-hour mortality, as did general ward patients compared to patients seen earlier in their treatment. 24-hour mortality increased from 1.8% for a NEWS ≥3 to 7.8% for NEWS ≥7. Although 24-hour mortality for NEWS <3 was only 0.07% these deaths accounted for 9% of all deaths within 24-hours; for NEWS <7 24-hour mortality was 0.23%, which accounted for 44% of all 24-hour deaths. Within 30-days of a NEWS recording 22% of all deaths occurred in patients with a NEWS <3, 52% in patients with a NEWS <5, and 75% in patient with a NEWS <7. CONCLUSION NEWS reliably identifies patients most and least likely to die within 24-hours, which is what it was designed to do. However, many patients identified to have a low risk of imminent death die within 30-days. NEWS mortality predictions beyond 24-hours are unreliable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Holland
- School of Clinical and Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health and Wellbeing, Bolton University, Bolton, UK
| | - John Kellett
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Hospital of South-West Jutland, Esbjerg, Denmark.
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Risk of Seven-Day Worsening and Death: A New Clinically Derived COVID-19 Score. Viruses 2022; 14:v14030642. [PMID: 35337049 PMCID: PMC8951891 DOI: 10.3390/v14030642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2022] [Revised: 03/16/2022] [Accepted: 03/17/2022] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
This monocentric, retrospective, two-stage observational study aimed to recognize the risk factors for a poor outcome in patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to develop and validate a risk score that identifies subjects at risk of worsening, death, or both. The data of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave of the pandemic were collected and analyzed as a derivation cohort. Variables with predictive properties were used to construct a prognostic score, which was tried out on a validation cohort enrolled during the second wave. The derivation cohort included 494 patients; the median age was 62 and the overall fatality rate was 22.3%. In a multivariable analysis, age, oxygen saturation, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase were independent predictors of death and composed the score. A cutoff value of 3 demonstrated a sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 93.5%, 68.5%, 47.4% and 97.2% for death, and 84.9%, 84.5%, 79.6% and 87.9% for worsening, respectively. The validation cohort included 415 subjects. The score application showed a Se, Sp, PPV and NPV of 93.4%, 61.6%, 29.5% and 98.1% for death, and 81%, 76.3%, 72.1% and 84.1% for worsening, respectively. We propose a new clinical, easy and reliable score to predict the outcome in hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 patients.
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30
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Salini S, Russo A, De Matteis G, Piccioni A, Della Polla D, Carbone L, Barillaro C, Landi F, Franceschi F, Covino M. Frailty in Elderly Patients with Covid-19: A Narrative Review. Gerontol Geriatr Med 2022; 8:23337214221079956. [PMID: 35274027 PMCID: PMC8902186 DOI: 10.1177/23337214221079956] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2021] [Revised: 01/12/2022] [Accepted: 01/24/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction The SARS CoV-2 pandemic still generates a very high number of affected patients and a
significant mortality rate. It is essential to establish objective criteria to stratify
COVID-19 death risk. Frailty has been identified as a potential determinant of increased
vulnerability in older adults affected by COVID-19, because it may suggest alterations
of physical performance and functional autonomy. Methods We have conducted a narrative review of the literature on the evidences regarding
COVID-19 and the frailty condition. Thirteen observational studies were included. Conclusion Data emerging from the studies indicate that older COVID-19 patients with a frailty
condition have an increased risk of mortality compared with non-frail patients, and this
association is independent of other clinical and demographic factors. A frailty
evaluation is required to help clinicians to better stratify the overall risk of death
for older patients with COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Salini
- Department of Aging, Neurological, Orthopaedic and Head-Neck Sciences, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Roma, Italy
| | - Andrea Russo
- Department of Aging, Neurological, Orthopaedic and Head-Neck Sciences, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Roma, Italy
| | - Giuseppe De Matteis
- Department of Internal Medicine, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Roma, Italy
| | - Andrea Piccioni
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Roma, Italy
| | - Davide Della Polla
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Roma, Italy
| | - Luigi Carbone
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Roma, Italy
| | - Christian Barillaro
- Department of Aging, Neurological, Orthopaedic and Head-Neck Sciences, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Roma, Italy
- Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italy
| | - Francesco Landi
- Department of Aging, Neurological, Orthopaedic and Head-Neck Sciences, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Roma, Italy
- Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italy
| | - Francesco Franceschi
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Roma, Italy
- Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italy
| | - Marcello Covino
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Roma, Italy
- Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italy
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Bradley ES, Zeamer AL, Bucci V, Cincotta L, Salive MC, Dutta P, Mutaawe S, Anya O, Tocci C, Moormann A, Ward DV, McCormick BA, Haran JP. Oropharyngeal Microbiome Profiled at Admission is Predictive of the Need for Respiratory Support Among COVID-19 Patients. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2022. [PMID: 35262096 PMCID: PMC8902889 DOI: 10.1101/2022.02.28.22271627] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
The clinical course of infection due to respiratory viruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2), the causative agent of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is thought to be influenced by the community of organisms that colonizes the upper respiratory tract, the oropharyngeal microbiome. In this study, we examined the oropharyngeal microbiome of suspected COVID-19 patients presenting to the Emergency Department and an inpatient COVID-19 unit with symptoms of acute COVID-19. Of 115 enrolled patients, 74 were confirmed COVID-19+ and 50 had symptom duration of 14 days or less; 38 acute COVID-19+ patients (76%) went on to require respiratory support. Although no microbiome features were found to be significantly different between COVID-19+ and COVID-19-patients, when we conducted random forest classification modeling (RFC) to predict the need of respiratory support for the COVID-19+ patients our analysis identified a subset of organisms and metabolic pathways whose relative abundance, when combined with clinical factors (such as age and Body Mass Index), was highly predictive of the need for respiratory support (F1 score 0.857). Microbiome Multivariable Association with Linear Models (MaAsLin2) analysis was then applied to the features identified as predicative of the need for respiratory support by the RFC. This analysis revealed reduced abundance of Prevotella salivae and metabolic pathways associated with lipopolysaccharide and mycolic acid biosynthesis to be the strongest predictors of patients requiring respiratory support. These findings suggest that composition of the oropharyngeal microbiome in COVID-19 may play a role in determining who will suffer from severe disease manifestations. Importance The microbial community that colonizes the upper airway, the oropharyngeal microbiome, has the potential to affect how patients respond to respiratory viruses such as SARS-CoV2, the causative agent of COVID-19. In this study, we investigated the oropharyngeal microbiome of COVID-19 patients using high throughput DNA sequencing performed on oral swabs. We combined patient characteristics available at intake such as medical comorbidities and age, with measured abundance of bacterial species and metabolic pathways and then trained a machine learning model to determine what features are predicative of patients needing respiratory support in the form of supplemental oxygen or mechanical ventilation. We found that decreased abundance of some bacterial species and increased abundance of pathways associated bacterial products biosynthesis was highly predictive of needing respiratory support. This suggests that the oropharyngeal microbiome affects disease course in COVID-19 and could be targeted for diagnostic purposes to determine who may need oxygen, or therapeutic purposes such as probiotics to prevent severe COVID-19 disease manifestations.
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Ong SWX, Sutjipto S, Lee PH, Dugan C, Khoo BY, Ren D, Young BE, Lye DC. Validation of ISARIC 4C Mortality and Deterioration Scores in a Mixed Vaccination Status Cohort of Hospitalized Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Patients in Singapore. Clin Infect Dis 2022; 75:e874-e877. [PMID: 35134143 PMCID: PMC8903389 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
In this cross-sectional study, we studied performance of the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium mortality and deterioration scores in a cohort of 410 hospitalized patients (51.2% fully vaccinated). area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.778 and 0.764, respectively, comparable to originally published validation cohorts. Subgroup analysis showed equally good performance in vaccinated and partially or unvaccinated patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean Wei Xiang Ong
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore,Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore
| | - Stephanie Sutjipto
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore,Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore
| | - Pei Hua Lee
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore,Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore
| | - Christopher Dugan
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore,Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore
| | - Bo Yan Khoo
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore,Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore
| | - Dongdong Ren
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore,Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore
| | - Barnaby Edward Young
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore,Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore,Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singaporeand
| | - David Chien Lye
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore,Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore,Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singaporeand,Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore,Correspondence: D. C. Lye, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, 16 Jln Tan Tock Seng, Singapore 308442 ()
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Clinical Utility of 4C Mortality Scores among Japanese COVID-19 Patients: A Multicenter Study. J Clin Med 2022; 11:jcm11030821. [PMID: 35160272 PMCID: PMC8836893 DOI: 10.3390/jcm11030821] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2021] [Revised: 01/29/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: We analyzed data from COVID-19 patients in Japan to assess the utility of the 4C mortality score as compared with conventional scorings. Methods: In this multicenter study, COVID-19 patients hospitalized between March 2020 and June 2021, over 16 years old, were recruited. The superiority for correctly predicting mortality and severity by applying the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was compared. A Cox regression model was used to compare the length of hospitalization for each risk group of 4C mortality score. Results: Among 206 patients, 21 patients died. The area under the curve (AUC) (95% confidential interval (CI)) of the ROC curve for mortality and severity, respectively, of 4C mortality scores (0.84 (95% CI 0.76–0.92) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.91)) were higher than those of qSOFA (0.66 (95% CI 0.53–0.78) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.59–0.75)), SOFA (0.70 (95% CI 0.55–0.84) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.74–0.89)), A-DROP (0.78 (95% CI 0.69–0.88) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.74–0.88)), and CURB-65 (0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.90) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.88)). For length of hospitalization among survivors, the intermediate- and high- or very high-risk groups had significantly lower hazard ratios, i.e., 0.48 (95% CI 0.30–0.76)) and 0.23 (95% CI 0.13–0.43) for discharge. Conclusions: The 4C mortality score is better for estimating mortality and severity in COVID-19 Japanese patients than other scoring systems.
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Mohamed RAE, Abdelsalam EM, Maghraby HM, Al Jedaani HS, Rakha EB, Hussain K, Sultan I. Performance features and mortality prediction of the 4C Score early in COVID-19 infection: a retrospective study in Saudi Arabia. J Investig Med 2022; 70:421-427. [PMID: 34836890 PMCID: PMC8635889 DOI: 10.1136/jim-2021-001940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
The ISARIC4C consortium developed and internally validated the 4C Score for prediction of mortality only in hospitalized patients. We aimed to assess the validity of the 4C Score in mortality prediction of patients with COVID-19 who had been home isolated or hospitalized.This retrospective cross-sectional study was performed after the first wave of COVID-19. Data of all PCR-positive COVID-19 patients who had been discharged, hospitalized, or died were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were classified into four risk groups according to the 4C Mortality Score. A total of (506) patients were classified as follows: low (57.1%), intermediate (27.9%), high (13%), and very high (2%) risk groups. Clinical, radiological, and laboratory data were significantly more severe in the high and very high-risk groups compared with other groups (p<0.001 for all). Mortality rate was correctly estimated by the model with 71% sensitivity, 88.6% specificity, and area under the curve of 0.9. The mortality rate was underestimated among the very high-risk group (66.2% vs 90%). The odds of mortality were significantly greater in the presence of hypoxia (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.5 to 4.6, p<0.001) and high respiratory rate (OR 5.3, 95% CI 1.6 to 17.9, p<0.007), C reactive protein (CRP) (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.8 to 6.8, p<0.001), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3 to 3.1, p<0.002). Other components of the model had non-significant predictions. In conclusion, the 4C Mortality Score has good sensitivity and specificity in early risk stratification and mortality prediction of patient with COVID-19. Within the model, only hypoxia, tachypnea, high BUN, and CRP were the independent mortality predictors with the possibility of overlooking other important predictors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rehab Abd Elfattah Mohamed
- Internal Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine for Girls, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
- Internal Medicine Department, Ibn Sina National College for Medical Studies, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Eman Mahmoud Abdelsalam
- Internal Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine for Girls, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Hend Maghraby Maghraby
- Internal Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine for Girls, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Huda Shali Al Jedaani
- Obs/Gyn Department, Ibn Sina National College for Medical Studies, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ehab Badran Rakha
- Clinical Pathology Department, Mansoura University, Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt
| | - Khamrunissa Hussain
- Quality Department, Ibn Sina National College for Medical Studies, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Intessar Sultan
- Internal Medicine Department, Ibn Sina National College for Medical Studies, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
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Adderley NJ, Taverner T, Price MJ, Sainsbury C, Greenwood D, Chandan JS, Takwoingi Y, Haniffa R, Hosier I, Welch C, Parekh D, Gallier S, Gokhale K, Denniston AK, Sapey E, Nirantharakumar K. Development and external validation of prognostic models for COVID-19 to support risk stratification in secondary care. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e049506. [PMID: 35039282 PMCID: PMC8764710 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Existing UK prognostic models for patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 are limited by reliance on comorbidities, which are under-recorded in secondary care, and lack of imaging data among the candidate predictors. Our aims were to develop and externally validate novel prognostic models for adverse outcomes (death and intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission) in UK secondary care and externally validate the existing 4C score. DESIGN Candidate predictors included demographic variables, symptoms, physiological measures, imaging and laboratory tests. Final models used logistic regression with stepwise selection. SETTING Model development was performed in data from University Hospitals Birmingham (UHB). External validation was performed in the CovidCollab dataset. PARTICIPANTS Patients with COVID-19 admitted to UHB January-August 2020 were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Death and ITU admission within 28 days of admission. RESULTS 1040 patients with COVID-19 were included in the derivation cohort; 288 (28%) died and 183 (18%) were admitted to ITU within 28 days of admission. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for mortality was 0.791 (95% CI 0.761 to 0.822) in UHB and 0.767 (95% CI 0.754 to 0.780) in CovidCollab; AUROC for ITU admission was 0.906 (95% CI 0.883 to 0.929) in UHB and 0.811 (95% CI 0.795 to 0.828) in CovidCollab. Models showed good calibration. Addition of comorbidities to candidate predictors did not improve model performance. AUROC for the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium 4C score in the UHB dataset was 0.753 (95% CI 0.720 to 0.785). CONCLUSIONS The novel prognostic models showed good discrimination and calibration in derivation and external validation datasets, and performed at least as well as the existing 4C score using only routinely collected patient information. The models can be integrated into electronic medical records systems to calculate each individual patient's probability of death or ITU admission at the time of hospital admission. Implementation of the models and clinical utility should be evaluated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicola J Adderley
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Thomas Taverner
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Malcolm James Price
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | - Christopher Sainsbury
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Department of Diabetes, Gartnavel General Hospital, Glasgow, UK
| | - David Greenwood
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Joht Singh Chandan
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Yemisi Takwoingi
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | - Rashan Haniffa
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Centre for Anaesthesia Critical Care & Pain Medicine, University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Isaac Hosier
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Carly Welch
- Institute of Inflammation and Ageing, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | - Dhruv Parekh
- Institute of Inflammation and Ageing, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | - Suzy Gallier
- University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | - Krishna Gokhale
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Alastair K Denniston
- Institute of Inflammation and Ageing, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Moorfields Eye Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Elizabeth Sapey
- Institute of Inflammation and Ageing, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | - Krishnarajah Nirantharakumar
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Health Data Research UK, London, UK
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Yılmaz E, Ak R, Doğanay F. Usefulness of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in predicting the severity of COVID-19 patients: a retrospective cohort study. SAO PAULO MED J 2022; 140:81-86. [PMID: 34346985 PMCID: PMC9623832 DOI: 10.1590/1516-3180.2021.0298.r1.27052021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2021] [Accepted: 05/27/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Quick and accurate identification of critically ill patients ensures appropriate and correct use of medical resources. In situations that threaten public health, like pandemics, rapid and effective methods are needed for early disease detection among critically ill patients. OBJECTIVE To determine the relationship between the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) patients upon admission to the emergency department (ED) and these patients' prognosis. DESIGN AND SETTING Retrospective cohort study among COVID-19 patients in the ED of a tertiary-level hospital. METHODS Data on patients' age, gender, vital signs, chronic diseases, laboratory tests and clinical outcomes were collected from electronic medical records. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to assess the accuracy of NLR for predicting in-hospital mortality risk and intensive care unit (ICU) requirement. The Youden J index (YJI) was used to determine optimal threshold values. RESULTS 1,175 patients were included. Their median age was 63 years (IQR, 48-75). With an NLR cutoff value of 5.14, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, AUC and YJI for ICU requirement were calculated as 77.87%, 74.08%, 92.4%, 0.811 and 0.5194, respectively. With the same cutoff value, the sensitivity, specificity, AUC and YJI for in-hospital mortality were 77.27%, 75.82%, 0.815 and 0.5309, respectively. In addition, advanced age, leukocytosis, anemia and lymphopenia were found to be associated with poor prognosis. CONCLUSION The NLR, which is a widely available simple parameter, can provide rapid insights regarding early recognition of critical illness and prognosis among COVID-19 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erdal Yılmaz
- MD. Specialist in Emergency Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Kartal Dr. Lütfi Kırdar Şehir Hastanesi, Istanbul, Turkey.
| | - Rohat Ak
- MD. Specialist in Emergency Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Kartal Dr. Lütfi Kırdar Şehir Hastanesi, Istanbul, Turkey.
| | - Fatih Doğanay
- MD. Specialist in Emergency Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Edremit Devlet Hastanesi, Balıkesir, Turkey.
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Aletreby W, Mumtaz S, Shahzad S, Ahmed I, Alodat M, Gharba M, Farea Z, Mady A, Mahmood W, Mhawish H, Abdulmowla M, Nasser R. External validation of 4c ISARIC mortality score in critically ill COVID-19 patients from Saudi Arabia. SAUDI JOURNAL OF MEDICINE AND MEDICAL SCIENCES 2022; 10:19-24. [PMID: 35283713 PMCID: PMC8869262 DOI: 10.4103/sjmms.sjmms_480_21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2021] [Revised: 11/09/2021] [Accepted: 12/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: ISARIC mortality score is a risk stratification tool that helps predict the in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients. However, this tool was developed and validated in a British population, and thus, the external validation of this tool in local populations is important. Objectives: External validation of the ISARIC mortality score in COVID-19 patients from a large Saudi Arabian intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: This is a retrospective study that included all adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU of King Saud Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from March 2020 to June 2021. Patients who were pregnant or had pulmonary tuberculosis/human immunodeficiency virus were excluded along with patients with missing variables. Data were collected to calculate the ISARIC mortality score and then fitting receiver operator characteristic curve against patients’ outcome. Results: A total of 1493 critically ill COVID-19 patients were included. The mortality was 38%, the area under the curve of the score was 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79–0.83, P < 0.001) and the cutoff value correctly classified 72.7% of the cohort. The cutoff value of >9 had sensitivity of 70.5% (95% CI: 66.6–74.3); specificity, 73.97% (95% CI: 71–76.8); positive predictive value, 62.4% (95% CI: 59.5–65.2) and negative predictive value, 80.2% (95% CI: 78.2–82.4). Conclusion: The ISARIC score was found to have excellent predictive ability for mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients in our Saudi Arabian cohort. A cutoff score of >9 was the optimal criterion.
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Ak R, Doğanay F, Yilmaz E. Comparison of C-reactive protein and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio in predicting mortality among geriatric coronavirus disease 2019 patients. Rev Assoc Med Bras (1992) 2021; 68:82-86. [PMID: 34909968 DOI: 10.1590/1806-9282.20210811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2021] [Accepted: 09/24/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare C-reactive protein and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio performances in predicting mortality of geriatric patients who visited the emergency department. METHODS The data of patients with COVID-19 and aged 65 years and above, who visited emergency department during the study period, were retrospectively analyzed. The data were obtained from an electronic-based hospital information system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve were used to assess each cutoff value discriminatory for predicting mortality. RESULTS The mean age of the population included in this study was 76 (71-82) years, while 52.7% were males. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve values for C-reactive protein in terms of mortality were calculated as 71.01, 52.34, and 0.635%, respectively, while the sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve values for C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio were calculated as 75.74, 47.66, and 0.645%, respectively (p<0.001). In the pairwise comparison for the receiver operating characteristic curves of C-reactive protein and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio, no statistically significant difference was found. CONCLUSIONS Geriatric patients are the "most vulnerable" patient group against the COVID-19. In this study, both C-reactive protein and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio were found to be successful in predicting mortality for geriatric COVID-19 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rohat Ak
- Kartal Dr. Lütfi Kırdar City Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine - Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Fatih Doğanay
- Edremit Public Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine - Balıkesir, Turkey
| | - Erdal Yilmaz
- Kartal Dr. Lütfi Kırdar City Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine - Istanbul, Turkey
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Durie ML, Neto AS, Burrell AJ, Cooper DJ, Udy AA. ISARIC-4C Mortality Score overestimates risk of death due to COVID-19 in Australian ICU patients: a validation cohort study. CRIT CARE RESUSC 2021; 23:403-413. [PMID: 38046684 PMCID: PMC10692605 DOI: 10.51893/2021.4.oa5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Objective: To assess the performance of the UK International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (4C) Mortality Score for predicting mortality in Australian patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Design: Multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study. Setting: 78 Australian ICUs participating in the SPRINT-SARI (Short Period Incidence Study of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection) Australia study of COVID-19. Participants: Patients aged 16 years or older admitted to participating Australian ICUs with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 between 27 February and 10 October 2020. Main outcome measures: ISARIC-4C Mortality Score, calculated at the time of ICU admission. The primary outcome was observed versus predicted in-hospital mortality (by 4C Mortality and APACHE II). Results: 461 patients admitted to a participating ICU were included. 149 (32%) had complete data to calculate a 4C Mortality Score without imputation. Overall, 61/461 patients (13.2%) died, 16.9% lower than the comparable ISARIC-4C cohort in the United Kingdom. In patients with complete data, the median (interquartile range [IQR]) 4C Mortality Score was 10.0 (IQR, 8.0-13.0) and the observed mortality was 16.1% (24/149) versus 22.9% median predicted risk of death. The 4C Mortality Score discriminatory performance measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.68-0.90), similar to its performance in the original ISARIC-4C UK cohort (0.77) and not superior to APACHE II (AUROC, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.75-0.87). Conclusions: When calculated at the time of ICU admission, the 4C Mortality Score consistently overestimated the risk of death for Australian ICU patients with COVID-19. The 4C Mortality Score may need to be individually recalibrated for use outside the UK and in different hospital settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew L. Durie
- Department of Intensive Care and Hyperbaric Medicine, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Department of Intensive Care, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Ary Serpa Neto
- Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Aidan J.C. Burrell
- Department of Intensive Care and Hyperbaric Medicine, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - D. Jamie Cooper
- Department of Intensive Care and Hyperbaric Medicine, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Andrew A. Udy
- Department of Intensive Care and Hyperbaric Medicine, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre, School of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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Vicka V, Januskeviciute E, Miskinyte S, Ringaitiene D, Serpytis M, Klimasauskas A, Jancoriene L, Sipylaite J. Comparison of mortality risk evaluation tools efficacy in critically ill COVID-19 patients. BMC Infect Dis 2021; 21:1173. [PMID: 34809594 PMCID: PMC8607225 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06866-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2021] [Accepted: 11/13/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the number of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) is still increasing. The aim of our article is to estimate which of the conventional ICU mortality risk scores is the most accurate at predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients and to determine how these scores can be used in combination with the 4C Mortality Score. Methods This was a retrospective study of critically ill COVID-19 patients treated in tertiary reference COVID-19 hospitals during the year 2020. The 4C Mortality Score was calculated upon admission to the hospital. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated upon admission to the ICU. Patients were divided into two groups: ICU survivors and ICU non-survivors. Results A total of 249 patients were included in the study, of which 63.1% were male. The average age of all patients was 61.32 ± 13.3 years. The all-cause ICU mortality ratio was 41.4% (n = 103). To determine the accuracy of the ICU mortality risk scores a ROC-AUC analysis was performed. The most accurate scale was the APACHE II, with an AUC value of 0.772 (95% CI 0.714–0.830; p < 0.001). All of the ICU risk scores and 4C Mortality Score were significant mortality predictors in the univariate regression analysis. The multivariate regression analysis was completed to elucidate which of the scores can be used in combination with the independent predictive value. In the final model, the APACHE II and 4C Mortality Score prevailed. For each point increase in the APACHE II, mortality risk increased by 1.155 (OR 1.155, 95% CI 1.085–1.229; p < 0.001), and for each point increase in the 4C Mortality Score, mortality risk increased by 1.191 (OR 1.191, 95% CI 1.086–1.306; p < 0.001), demonstrating the best overall calibration of the model. Conclusions The study demonstrated that the APACHE II had the best discrimination of mortality in ICU patients. Both the APACHE II and 4C Mortality Score independently predict mortality risk and can be used concomitantly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vaidas Vicka
- Clinic of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania.
| | | | | | - Donata Ringaitiene
- Clinic of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Mindaugas Serpytis
- Clinic of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Andrius Klimasauskas
- Clinic of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Ligita Jancoriene
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Jurate Sipylaite
- Clinic of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
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Liu L, Ni SY, Yan W, Lu QD, Zhao YM, Xu YY, Mei H, Shi L, Yuan K, Han Y, Deng JH, Sun YK, Meng SQ, Jiang ZD, Zeng N, Que JY, Zheng YB, Yang BN, Gong YM, Ravindran AV, Kosten T, Wing YK, Tang XD, Yuan JL, Wu P, Shi J, Bao YP, Lu L. Mental and neurological disorders and risk of COVID-19 susceptibility, illness severity and mortality: A systematic review, meta-analysis and call for action. EClinicalMedicine 2021; 40:101111. [PMID: 34514362 PMCID: PMC8424080 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2021] [Revised: 08/12/2021] [Accepted: 08/13/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has evolved into a worldwide pandemic, and has been found to be closely associated with mental and neurological disorders. We aimed to comprehensively quantify the association between mental and neurological disorders, both pre-existing and subsequent, and the risk of susceptibility, severity and mortality of COVID-19. METHODS In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, PsycINFO, and Cochrane library databases for studies published from the inception up to January 16, 2021 and updated at July 7, 2021. Observational studies including cohort and case-control, cross-sectional studies and case series that reported risk estimates of the association between mental or neurological disorders and COVID-19 susceptibility, illness severity and mortality were included. Two researchers independently extracted data and conducted the quality assessment. Based on I2 heterogeneity, we used a random effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Subgroup analyses and meta-regression analysis were also performed. This study was registered on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD 42021230832). FINDING A total of 149 studies (227,351,954 participants, 89,235,737 COVID-19 patients) were included in this analysis, in which 27 reported morbidity (132,727,798), 56 reported illness severity (83,097,968) and 115 reported mortality (88,878,662). Overall, mental and neurological disorders were associated with a significant high risk of infection (pre-existing mental: OR 1·67, 95% CI 1·12-2·49; and pre-existing neurological: 2·05, 1·58-2·67), illness severity (mental: pre-existing, 1·40, 1·25-1·57; sequelae, 4·85, 2·53-9·32; neurological: pre-existing, 1·43, 1·09-1·88; sequelae, 2·17, 1·45-3·24), and mortality (mental: pre-existing, 1·47, 1·26-1·72; neurological: pre-existing, 2·08, 1·61-2·69; sequelae, 2·03, 1·66-2·49) from COVID-19. Subgroup analysis revealed that association with illness severity was stronger among younger COVID-19 patients, and those with subsequent mental disorders, living in low- and middle-income regions. Younger patients with mental and neurological disorders were associated with higher mortality than elders. For type-specific mental disorders, susceptibility to contracting COVID-19 was associated with pre-existing mood disorders, anxiety, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); illness severity was associated with both pre-existing and subsequent mood disorders as well as sleep disturbance; and mortality was associated with pre-existing schizophrenia. For neurological disorders, susceptibility was associated with pre-existing dementia; both severity and mortality were associated with subsequent delirium and altered mental status; besides, mortality was associated with pre-existing and subsequent dementia and multiple specific neurological diseases. Heterogeneities were substantial across studies in most analysis. INTERPRETATION The findings show an important role of mental and neurological disorders in the context of COVID-19 and provide clues and directions for identifying and protecting vulnerable populations in the pandemic. Early detection and intervention for neurological and mental disorders are urgently needed to control morbidity and mortality induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there was substantial heterogeneity among the included studies, and the results should be interpreted with caution. More studies are needed to explore long-term mental and neurological sequela, as well as the underlying brain mechanisms for the sake of elucidating the causal pathways for these associations. FUNDING This study is supported by grants from the National Key Research and Development Program of China, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Special Research Fund of PKUHSC for Prevention and Control of COVID-19, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lin Liu
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Shu-Yu Ni
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Yan
- Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Research Unit (No. 2018RU006), Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Qing-Dong Lu
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yi-Miao Zhao
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Ying-Ying Xu
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Huan Mei
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Le Shi
- Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Research Unit (No. 2018RU006), Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Kai Yuan
- Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Research Unit (No. 2018RU006), Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Ying Han
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Jia-Hui Deng
- Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Research Unit (No. 2018RU006), Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Yan-Kun Sun
- Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Research Unit (No. 2018RU006), Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Shi-Qiu Meng
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Zheng-Dong Jiang
- Wuhan Wuchang Hospital, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Na Zeng
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Jian-Yu Que
- Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Research Unit (No. 2018RU006), Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Yong-Bo Zheng
- Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Research Unit (No. 2018RU006), Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Bei-Ni Yang
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yi-Miao Gong
- Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Research Unit (No. 2018RU006), Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | | | - Thomas Kosten
- Department of Psychiatry, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States
| | - Yun Kwok Wing
- Li Chiu Kong Family Sleep Assessment Unit, Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Xiang-Dong Tang
- Sleep Medicine Center, Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Mental Health Center and Translational Neuroscience Center, State Key Laboratory of Biotherapy, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Jun-Liang Yuan
- Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Research Unit (No. 2018RU006), Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Ping Wu
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Jie Shi
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yan-Ping Bao
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Lin Lu
- National Institute on Drug Dependence and Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Dependence, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Research Unit (No. 2018RU006), Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
- Peking-Tsinghua Centre for Life Sciences and PKU-IDG/McGovern Institute for Brain Research, Peking University, Beijing, China
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Doğanay F, Ak R. Performance of the CURB-65, ISARIC-4C and COVID-GRAM scores in terms of severity for COVID-19 patients. Int J Clin Pract 2021; 75:e14759. [PMID: 34455674 PMCID: PMC8646358 DOI: 10.1111/ijcp.14759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2021] [Revised: 08/07/2021] [Accepted: 08/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the COVID-19 pandemic, difficulties have been experienced in the provision of healthcare services because of excessive patient admissions to hospitals and emergency departments. It has become important to use clear and objective criteria for the early diagnosis of patients with high-risk classification and clinical worsening risk. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic accuracy of CURB-65, ISARIC-4C and COVID-GRAM scores in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 and to compare the scoring systems in terms of predicting in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit requirement. METHODS The files of all COVID-19 patients over the age of 18 who were admitted to the emergency department and hospitalised between September 1, 2020 and December 1, 2020 were retrospectively scanned. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and Youden J Index were used to compare scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality and intensive care requirement. RESULTS There were 481 patients included in this study. The median age of the patients was 67 (52-79). In terms of in-hospital mortality, the AUC of CURB-65, ISARIC-4C and COVID-GRAM were 0.846, 0.784 and 0.701 respectively. In terms of intensive care requirement, the AUC of CURB-65, ISARIC-4C and COVID-GRAM were 0.898, 0.797 and 0.684 respectively. In our study, Youden's J indexes of CURB-65, ISARIC-4C and COVID-GRAM scores were found to be 0.59, 0.27 and 0.01 respectively, for mortality prediction of COVID-19 patients. Whereas Youden's J indexes were found to be 0.63, 0.26 and 0.01 respectively for determining intensive care requirement. CONCLUSIONS Among the scoring systems assessed, CURB-65 score had better performance in predicting in-hospital mortality and ICU requirement in COVID-19 patients. ISARIC-4C has been found successful in identifying low-risk patients and the use of the ISARIC-4C score with CURB-65 increases the accuracy of risk assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fatih Doğanay
- Department of Emergency MedicineEdremit State HospitalBalıkesirTurkey
| | - Rohat Ak
- Department of Emergency MedicineDr. Lütfi Kırdar Kartal Eğitim ve Araştırma HastanesiIstanbulTurkey
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Akdur G, Daş M, Bardakci O, Akman C, Sıddıkoğlu D, Akdur O, Akçalı A, Erbaş M, Reşorlu M, Beyazit Y. Prediction of mortality in COVID-19 through combing CT severity score with NEWS, qSOFA, or peripheral perfusion index. Am J Emerg Med 2021; 50:546-552. [PMID: 34547696 PMCID: PMC8411577 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2021.08.079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2021] [Revised: 08/25/2021] [Accepted: 08/30/2021] [Indexed: 10/25/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The assessment of disease severity and the prediction of clinical outcomes at early disease stages can contribute to decreased mortality in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study was conducted to develop and validate a multivariable risk prediction model for mortality with using a combination of computed tomography severity score (CT-SS), national early warning score (NEWS), and quick sequential (sepsis-related) organ failure assessment (qSOFA) in COVID-19 patients. METHODS We retrospectively collected medical data from 655 adult COVID-19 patients admitted to our hospital between July and November 2020. Data on demographics, clinical characteristics, and laboratory and radiological findings measured as part of standard care at admission were used to calculate NEWS, qSOFA score, CT-SS, peripheral perfusion index (PPI) and shock index (SI). Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used to predict mortality, which was our primary outcome. The predictive accuracy of distinct scoring systems was evaluated by the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS The median age was 50.0 years [333 males (50.8%), 322 females (49.2%)]. Higher NEWS and SI was associated with time-to-death within 90-days, whereas higher age, CT-SS and lower PPI were significantly associated with time-to-death within both 14 days and 90 days in the adjusted Cox regression model. The CT-SS predicted different mortality risk levels within each stratum of NEWS and qSOFA and improved the discrimination of mortality prediction models. Combining CT-SS with NEWS score yielded more accurate 14 days (DBA: -0.048, p = 0.002) and 90 days (DBA: -0.066, p < 0.001) mortality prediction. CONCLUSION Combining severity tools such as CT-SS, NEWS and qSOFA improves the accuracy of predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19. Inclusion of these tools in decision strategies might provide early detection of high-risk groups, avoid delayed medical attention, and improve patient outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gökhan Akdur
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey
| | - Murat Daş
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey
| | - Okan Bardakci
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey.
| | - Canan Akman
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey
| | - Duygu Sıddıkoğlu
- Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey
| | - Okhan Akdur
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey
| | - Alper Akçalı
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey
| | - Mesut Erbaş
- Department of Anesthesiology and Reanimation, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey
| | - Mustafa Reşorlu
- Department of Radiology, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey
| | - Yavuz Beyazit
- Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey
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Martín-Rodríguez F, Sanz-García A, Melero Guijarro L, Ortega GJ, Gómez-Escolar Pérez M, Castro Villamor MA, Santos Pastor JC, Delgado Benito JF, López-Izquierdo R. Comorbidity-adjusted NEWS predicts mortality in suspected patients with COVID-19 from nursing homes: Multicentre retrospective cohort study. J Adv Nurs 2021; 78:1618-1631. [PMID: 34519377 PMCID: PMC8657335 DOI: 10.1111/jan.15039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2021] [Revised: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/31/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Aims To assess the prognostic accuracy of comorbidity‐adjusted National Early Warning Score in suspected Coronavirus disease 2019 patients transferred from nursing homes by the Emergency Department. Design Multicentre retrospective cohort study. Methods Patients transferred by high‐priority ambulances from nursing homes to Emergency Departments with suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, from March 12 to July 31 2020, were considered. Included variables were: clinical covariates (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, temperature, level of consciousness and supplemental oxygen use), the presence of comorbidities and confirmatory analytical diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. The primary outcome was a 2‐day mortality rate. The discriminatory capability of the National Early Warning Score was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in two different cohorts, the validation and the revalidation, which were randomly selected from the main cohort. Results A total of 337 nursing homes, 10 advanced life support units, 51 basic life support units and 8 hospitals in Spain entailing 1,324 patients (median age 87 years) was involved in this study. Two‐day mortality was 11.5% (152 cases), with a positivity rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 of 51.2%, 77.7% of hospitalization from whom 1% was of intensive care unit admission. The National Early Warning Score results for the revalidation cohort presented an AUC of 0.771, and of 0.885, 0.778 and 0.730 for the low‐, medium‐ and high‐level groups of comorbidities. Conclusion The comorbidity‐adjusted National Early Warning Score provides a good short‐term prognostic criterion, information that can help in the decision‐making process to guide the best strategy for each older adult, under the current pandemic. Impact What problem did the study address?
Under the current coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, targeting older adults at high risk of deterioration in nursing homes remains challenging.
What were the main findings?
Comorbidity‐adjusted National Early Warning Score helps to forecast the risk of clinical deterioration more accurately.
Where and on whom will the research have impact?
A high NEWS, with a low level of comorbidity is associated with optimal predictive performance, making these older adults likely to benefit from continued follow up and potentially hospital referral under the current coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco Martín-Rodríguez
- Unidad Móvil de Emergencias Valladolid I, Gerencia de Emergencias Sanitarias, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), Valladolid, Spain.,Centro de Simulación Clínica Avanzada, Departamento de Medicina, Dermatología y Toxicología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
| | - Ancor Sanz-García
- Unidad de Análisis de Datos (UAD) del Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Hospital de la Princesa (IIS-IP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Laura Melero Guijarro
- Servicio de Urgencias, Complejo Asistencial Universitario de Palencia, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), Palencia, Spain
| | - Guillermo J Ortega
- Unidad de Análisis de Datos (UAD) del Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Hospital de la Princesa (IIS-IP), Madrid, Spain.,Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Marta Gómez-Escolar Pérez
- Centro Coordinador de Urgencias, Gerencia de Emergencias Sanitarias, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), Valladolid, Spain
| | - Miguel A Castro Villamor
- Centro de Simulación Clínica Avanzada, Departamento de Medicina, Dermatología y Toxicología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
| | - Julio C Santos Pastor
- Servicio de Urgencias, Complejo Asistencial de Segovia, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), Segovia, Spain
| | - Juan F Delgado Benito
- Unidad Móvil de Emergencias de Salamanca, Gerencia de Emergencias Sanitarias, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), Salamanca, Spain
| | - Raúl López-Izquierdo
- Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital Universitario Rio Hortega de Valladolid, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), Valladolid, Spain
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Au-Yong I, Higashi Y, Giannotti E, Fogarty A, Morling JR, Grainge M, Race A, Juurlink I, Simmonds M, Briggs S, Cruikshank S, Hammond-Pears S, West J, Crooks CJ, Card T. Chest Radiograph Scoring Alone or Combined with Other Risk Scores for Predicting Outcomes in COVID-19. Radiology 2021; 302:460-469. [PMID: 34519573 PMCID: PMC8475750 DOI: 10.1148/radiol.2021210986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Background Radiographic severity may help predict patient deterioration and
outcomes from COVID-19 pneumonia. Purpose To assess the reliability and reproducibility of three chest radiograph
reporting systems (radiographic assessment of lung edema [RALE], Brixia,
and percentage opacification) in patients with proven SARS-CoV-2
infection and examine the ability of these scores to predict adverse
outcomes both alone and in conjunction with two clinical scoring
systems, National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and International Severe
Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium: Coronavirus
Clinical Characterization Consortium (ISARIC-4C) mortality. Materials and Methods This retrospective cohort study used routinely collected clinical data
of patients with polymerase chain reaction–positive SARS-CoV-2
infection admitted to a single center from February 2020 through July
2020. Initial chest radiographs were scored for RALE, Brixia, and
percentage opacification by one of three radiologists. Intra- and
interreader agreement were assessed with intraclass correlation
coefficients. The rate of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) or
death up to 60 days after scored chest radiograph was estimated. NEWS2
and ISARIC-4C mortality at hospital admission were calculated. Daily
risk for admission to ICU or death was modeled with Cox proportional
hazards models that incorporated the chest radiograph scores adjusted
for NEWS2 or ISARIC-4C mortality. Results Admission chest radiographs of 50 patients (mean age, 74 years ±
16 [standard deviation]; 28 men) were scored by all three radiologists,
with good interreader reliability for all scores, as follows: intraclass
correlation coefficients were 0.87 for RALE (95% CI: 0.80, 0.92), 0.86
for Brixia (95% CI: 0.76, 0.92), and 0.72 for percentage opacification
(95% CI: 0.48, 0.85). Of 751 patients with a chest radiograph, those
with greater than 75% opacification had a median time to ICU admission
or death of just 1–2 days. Among 628 patients for whom data were
available (median age, 76 years [interquartile range, 61–84
years]; 344 men), opacification of 51%–75% increased risk for ICU
admission or death by twofold (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI: 1.6, 2.8), and
opacification greater than 75% increased ICU risk by fourfold (hazard
ratio, 4.0; 95% CI: 3.4, 4.7) compared with opacification of
0%–25%, when adjusted for NEWS2 score. Conclusion Brixia, radiographic assessment of lung edema, and percentage
opacification scores all reliably helped predict adverse outcomes in
SARS-CoV-2 infection. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this
article. See also the editorial by Little in this issue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iain Au-Yong
- Department of Radiology, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, NG7 2UH
| | - Yutaro Higashi
- Department of Radiology, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, NG7 2UH
| | | | - Andrew Fogarty
- Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust.,Population and Lifespan Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, NG5 1PB.,NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and the University of Nottingham, NG7 2UH
| | - Joanne R Morling
- Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust.,Population and Lifespan Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, NG5 1PB.,NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and the University of Nottingham, NG7 2UH
| | - Matthew Grainge
- Population and Lifespan Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, NG5 1PB
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Joe West
- Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust.,Population and Lifespan Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, NG5 1PB.,NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and the University of Nottingham, NG7 2UH.,East Midlands Academic Health Science Network, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2TU
| | - Colin J Crooks
- Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust.,Translational Medical Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, NG7 2UH.,NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and the University of Nottingham, NG7 2UH
| | - Timothy Card
- Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust.,Population and Lifespan Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, NG5 1PB.,NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and the University of Nottingham, NG7 2UH
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Covino M, Russo A, Salini S, De Matteis G, Simeoni B, Della Polla D, Sandroni C, Landi F, Gasbarrini A, Franceschi F. Frailty Assessment in the Emergency Department for Risk Stratification of COVID-19 Patients Aged ≥80 Years. J Am Med Dir Assoc 2021; 22:1845-1852.e1. [PMID: 34364846 PMCID: PMC8289672 DOI: 10.1016/j.jamda.2021.07.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2021] [Revised: 07/11/2021] [Accepted: 07/14/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate, in a cohort of adults aged ≥80 years, the overlapping effect of clinical severity, comorbidities, cognitive impairment, and frailty, for the in-hospital death risk stratification of COVID-19 older patients since emergency department (ED) admission. DESIGN Single-center prospective observational cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS The study was conducted in the ED of a teaching hospital that is a referral center for COVID-19 in central Italy. We enrolled all patients with aged ≥80 years old consecutively admitted to the ED between April 2020 and March 2021. METHODS Clinical variables assessed in the ED were evaluated for the association with all-cause in-hospital death. Evaluated parameters were severity of disease, frailty, comorbidities, cognitive impairment, delirium, and dependency in daily life activities. Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for poor outcomes. RESULTS A total of 729 patients aged ≥80 years were enrolled [median age 85 years (interquartile range 82-89); 346 were males (47.3%)]. According to the Clinical Frailty Scale, 61 (8.4%) were classified as fit, 417 (57.2%) as vulnerable, and 251 (34.4%) as frail. Severe disease [hazard ratio (HR) 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.31-2.59], ≥3 comorbidities (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.11-2.13), male sex (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.14-1.87), and frailty (HR 6.93, 95% CI 1.69-28.27) for vulnerable and an overall HR of 12.55 (95% CI 2.96-53.21) for frail were independent risk factors for in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS The ED approach to older patients with COVID-19 should take into account the functional and clinical characteristics of patients being admitted. A sole evaluation based on the clinical severity and the presence of comorbidities does not reflect the complexity of this population. A comprehensive evaluation based on clinical severity, multimorbidity, and frailty could effectively predict the clinical risk of in-hospital death for patients with COVID-19 aged ≥80 years at the time of ED presentation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcello Covino
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Roma, Rome, Italy.
| | - Andrea Russo
- Geriatrics Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Sara Salini
- Geriatrics Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Giuseppe De Matteis
- Department of Internal Medicine, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Benedetta Simeoni
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Davide Della Polla
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Claudio Sandroni
- Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Roma, Rome, Italy; Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Francesco Landi
- Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Roma, Rome, Italy; Geriatrics Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Antonio Gasbarrini
- Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Roma, Rome, Italy; Department of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Francesco Franceschi
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy; Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Roma, Rome, Italy
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Does chronic oral anticoagulation reduce in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 older patients? Aging Clin Exp Res 2021; 33:2335-2343. [PMID: 34216379 PMCID: PMC8254066 DOI: 10.1007/s40520-021-01924-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2021] [Accepted: 06/22/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Background Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 experienced an increased risk of venous thromboembolism. Aims To evaluate the effect of chronic oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy, both with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), on prognosis of COVID-19 older patients. Methods Single-center prospective study conducted in the Emergency Department (ED) of a teaching hospital, referral center for COVID-19 in central Italy. We evaluated all the patients ≥ 65 years, consecutively admitted to our ED for confirmed COVID-19. We compared the clinical outcome of those who were on chronic OAC at ED admission with those who did not, using a propensity score matched paired cohort of controls. The primary study endpoint was all-cause in-hospital death. Patients were matched for age, sex, clinical comorbidities, and clinical severity at presentation (based on NEWS ≥ 6). Study parameters were assessed for association to all-cause in-hospital death by a multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify independent risk factor for survival. Results Although overall mortality was slightly higher for anticoagulated patients compared to controls (63.3% vs 43.5%, p = 0.012), the multivariate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for death was not significant (HR = 1.56 [0.78–3.12]; p = 0.208). Both DOACs (HR 1.46 [0.73–2.92]; p = 0.283) and VKAs (HR 1.14 [0.48–2.73]; p = 0.761) alone did not affect overall survival in our cohort. Conclusions Among older patients hospitalized for COVID-19, chronic OAC therapy was not associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital death. Moreover, our data suggest similar outcome both for patients on VKAs or in patients on DOACs. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40520-021-01924-w.
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Sevinc C, Demirci R, Timur O. Predicting hospital mortality in COVID-19 hemodialysis patients with developed scores. Semin Dial 2021; 34:347-359. [PMID: 34318946 PMCID: PMC8447133 DOI: 10.1111/sdi.13004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2021] [Revised: 05/31/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Various risk scores such as COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score (COVID-GRAM), quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) have been developed to determine critical illness in hospitalized patients. None of these risk scoring systems was evaluated in HD patients who indeed carry the highest risk of developing critical illnesses. We aimed to evaluate, in hemodialysis (HD) patients with COVID-19, the performance of these scoring systems for the need of intensive care unit (ICU) and mortality. The qCSI, COVID-GRAM, and SII scores of the patients at admission to hospital were calculated and grouped according to the scoring results. The primary outcome of the study was mortality and need of ICU. Critical illness was described as a composition of admission to the ICU, invasive ventilation, or death. It was determined that when the qCSI is over 6.5, the need for ICU increased 13.8 times and mortality increased 21.3 times. When the COVID-GRAM score is >157, the ICU need increased 14.7 times and the mortality increased 33.7 times. We found that the need for ICU increased 4.2 times and mortality increased 3.1 times when the SII score was >1145. These tests, which can be easily calculated, could be used to estimate the risk of developing critical illness among COVID-19 HD patients. Estimating the risk of critical illness could help to reduce mortality in HD patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Can Sevinc
- Department of Internal Medicine and Nephrology, Ataturk University Faculty of Medicine, Erzurum, Turkey
| | - Recep Demirci
- Department of Internal Medicine and Nephrology, Kanuni Sultan Suleyman Research and Training Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Ozge Timur
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erzurum Regional Research and Training Hospital, Erzurum, Turkey
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Valverde-López F, Tendero-Peinado C, Lecuona-Muñoz M, Heredia-Carrasco C, Abellán-Alfocea P, Ortega-Suazo EJ, Martín-Rodríguez MDM, Sánchez-Capilla AD, Sotorrío-Simó V, Jiménez-Rosales R, Redondo-Cerezo E. A Gastroenterologist' clinical experience in COVID 19 and in-hospital mortality and length of stay analysis. Postgrad Med 2021; 133:592-598. [PMID: 34171981 DOI: 10.1080/00325481.2021.1949200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES COVID19 pandemic has forced physicians from different specialties to assist cases overload. Our aim is to assess gastroenterologist's assistance in COVID-19 by assessing mortality, ICU admission, and length of stay, and seek for risk factors for in-hospital mortality and longer hospital stay. METHODS A total of 41 COVID-19 patients assisted by gastroenterologist (GI cohort) and 137 assisted by pulmonologist, internal medicine practitioners, and infectious disease specialists (COVID expert cohort) during October-November 2020 were prospectively collected. Clinical, demographic, imaging, and laboratory markers were collected and compared between both cohorts. Bivariate analysis and logistic regression were performed to search for risk factors of mortality and longer hospital stays. RESULTS A total of 27 patients died (15.1%), 11 were admitted to ICU (6.1%). There were no differences between cohorts in mortality (14.6% vs 15.4%;p = 0.90), ICU admission (12.1% vs 4%;p = 0.13), and length of stay (6.67 ± 4 vs 7.15 ± 4.5 days; p = 0.58). PaO2/FiO2 on admission (OR 0.991;CI95% 0.984-0.998) and age > 70 (OR 17.54;CI95% 3.93-78.22) were independently related to mortality. Age > 70, history of malignancy, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease were related to longer hospital stays (p < 0.001, p = 0.03, p = 0.04, p = 0.02 respectively). CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 assistance was similar between gastroenterologist and COVID experts when assessing mortality, ICU admission, and length of stay. Age>70 and decreased PaO2/FiO2 on admission were independent risk factors of mortality. Age and several comorbidities were related to longer hospital stay.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco Valverde-López
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Virgen De Las Nieves, Granada, Spain
| | - Cristina Tendero-Peinado
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Virgen De Las Nieves, Granada, Spain
| | - Marta Lecuona-Muñoz
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Virgen De Las Nieves, Granada, Spain
| | - Clara Heredia-Carrasco
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Virgen De Las Nieves, Granada, Spain
| | - Patricia Abellán-Alfocea
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Virgen De Las Nieves, Granada, Spain
| | - Eva Julissa Ortega-Suazo
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Virgen De Las Nieves, Granada, Spain
| | | | | | - Virginia Sotorrío-Simó
- Department of Internal Medicine, University Hospital Virgen De Las Nieves, Granada, Spain
| | - Rita Jiménez-Rosales
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Virgen De Las Nieves, Granada, Spain
| | - Eduardo Redondo-Cerezo
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Virgen De Las Nieves, Granada, Spain
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"Impact of pentaglobin in severe COVID 19 pneumonia- a prospective study.". Int Immunopharmacol 2021; 99:107968. [PMID: 34304002 PMCID: PMC8270756 DOI: 10.1016/j.intimp.2021.107968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2021] [Revised: 06/24/2021] [Accepted: 07/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Background The current COVID-19 pandemic has become a global public health crisis and presents a serious challenge in treatment of severe COVID pneumonia patients. With an imperative need for an effective treatment, we aimed to study the effectiveness of Pentaglobin, an intravenous immunoglobin in the treatment of severe Covid-19 pneumonia patients. Methods This is an open-label non-randomised controlled study. Patients in the study group (n = 17) received Pentaglobin in addition to standard therapy and the control group (n = 19) received only the standard of care treatment. Severity of illness were quantified by severity scores and inflammatory laboratory parameters were compared between the two groups. Results The average length of hospital stay in pentaglobin group were 12.35 ± 6.98 days compared to 10.94 ± 4.62 days in standard treatment group with mean difference of 1.4 days (p value = 0.4). Pentaglobin did not provide an added advantage in terms of reducing the duration of hospital stay. There was no significant difference between both the groups in terms of requirement of invasive ventilation (p = 0.56) and mortality (p = 0.86). CT Severity score (OR = 1.39 95% CI = 1.09–1.77, P = 0.01), APACHE II score (OR = 1.16 95% CI = 0.99–1.35, P = 0.05) and the SOFA score (OR = 2.11 95% CI = 1.13–3.93, P = 0.02) were independent predictors of mortality. Conclusion The administration of pentaglobin in COVID −19 patients has no significant effect in reducing the risk of mechanical ventilation or death, in disease worsening or in reduction of inflammation.
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