Ecosystem thresholds, tipping points, and critical transitions

Laminar-Turbulent Patterns in Shear Flows: Evasion of Tipping, Saddle-Loop Bifurcation, and Log Scaling of the Turbulent Fraction

Spatial pattern formation can be a signal for tipping points and abrupt transitions in complex systems. In wall shear flows, the homogeneous turbulent state is disconnected from the laminar one and disappears in a tipping catastrophe scenario. It, however, linearly destabilizes before tipping, giving rise to laminar-turbulent banded patterns. The subcritical transition to turbulence is thus a promising candidate for investigating the evasion of tipping and its consequences in a well-controlled setting. To do so, we analyze a one-dimensional two-scalar fields advection diffusion reaction model of the transition. We characterize the multistability of the nonlinear solutions emerging from the instability and show that the pattern wavelength is selected by turbulent fluctuations. At lower Reynolds numbers, the pattern follows a cascade of destabilizations toward larger and larger, eventually infinite wavelengths. In that limit, the periodic limit cycle associated with the spatial pattern hits the laminar fixed point, resulting in a saddle loop, also called homoclinic, global bifurcation and the emergence of solitary pulse solutions. This saddle-loop scenario predicts a logarithmic divergence of the wavelength, which captures available experimental and numerical data.

A GIS-MCDA approach to map environmental suitability of Posidonia oceanica meadows as blue nature-based solutions in the Mediterranean eco-region

The growing environmental risks induced by interacting climate and human-induced pressures threaten the survival and growth of marine coastal ecosystems (MCEs) and the ecosystem services they provide. Nature-based solutions (NBS), consisting of ecosystem-based approaches, have emerged as vital tools for climate adaptation and mitigation facing biodiversity loss and societal challenges. Identifying suitable environmental conditions for implementing Blue-NBS in marine coastal areas is a key priority to drive robust and cost-effective nature-based adaptation pathways. This study developed a suitability model for Blue-NBS, with a specific focus on Posidonia oceanica meadows in the Mediterranean Sea under a baseline scenario. GIS-based Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was applied for data integration and prioritization of different environmental variables in geomorphological (e.g., depth), water quality (WQ) (e.g., salinity), and climatic (e.g., thermal stress) sub-groups. Suitability classes and scores for each variable were determined using statistical distributions, ensuring a data-driven approach to defining environmental suitability. Variables' weights were derived from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on expert judgment and then combined with scores to generate suitability maps for managing Blue-NBS on seagrasses. Depth was found to be the most dominant environmental variable, with shallow areas (e.g., Northern Adriatic, Gulf of Gabés) showing higher suitability. The southern part of the Mediterranean (e.g., Egypt) reported relatively low scores for both climate and WQ, while the Northern Adriatic had the lowest WQ scores. This study represents the first attempt to evaluate Blue-NBS suitability for seagrass meadows at the eco-regional scale with geomorphologic, WQ, and climatic variables, providing decision support for the selection and allocation of Blue-NBS in different environmental settings. The resulting environmental suitability maps represent a basis for the integration of socio-economic and governance-related indicators into a more complex, multi-tier approach to support NBS mainstreaming.

Ensemble learning model identifies adaptation classification and turning points of river microbial communities in response to heatwaves

Heatwaves are a global issue that threaten microbial populations and deteriorate ecosystems. However, how river microbial communities respond to heatwaves and whether and how high temperatures exceed microbial adaptation remain unclear. In this study, we proposed four types of pulse temperature-induced microbial responses and predicted the possibility of microbial adaptation to high temperature in global rivers using ensemble machine learning models. Our findings suggest that microbial communities in parts of South American (e.g., Brazil and Chile) and Southeast Asian (e.g., Vietnam) countries are likely to change due to heatwave disturbance from 25 to 37°C for consecutive days. Furthermore, the microbial communities in approximately 48.4% of the global river gauge stations are prone to fast stress inadaptation, with approximately 76.9% of these stations expected to exceed microbial adaptation after heatwave disturbances. If emissions of particulate matter with sizes not more than 2.5 μm (PM2.5, an indicator of human activities) increase by twofold, the number of global rivers associated with the fast stress adaptation type will decrease by ~13.7% after heatwave disturbances. Understanding microbial responses is crucially important for effective ecosystem management, especially for fragile and sensitive rivers facing heatwave events.

Response of Ecohydrological Variables to Meteorological Drought under Climate Change

Drought is the most widespread climatic extreme that has negative impacts on ecohydrology. Studies have shown that drought can cause certain degrees of disturbances to different ecohydrological variables, but the duration and severity thresholds of drought that are sufficient to cause changes in ecohydrological variables remain largely unknown. At the same time, we should not ignore the dynamic variation of drought’s effect on ecohydrological variables under the condition of climate change. Here, we derived the thresholds of several ecohydrological variables in response to drought in a historical period (1982–2015), including evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture (SM), the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and we projected the occurrence probability’s change trend of drought events that cause changes in ecohydrological variables under future climate change. The results show that the impact of drought on ecohydrological variables is not dependent on drought indicators. ET and NDVI were expected to decrease in most parts of the world due to increases in radiation (RAD) and temperature (TEMP) and decreases in precipitation (PRE) during drought periods. SM decreased in most regions of the world (93.47%) during the drought period, while VPD increased in 85.41% of the globe. The response thresholds for different ecohydrological variables to drought in the same area did not differ significantly (especially for ET, SM and VPD). When a drought lasted for 8 to 15 months and the corresponding drought severity reached 10 to 15 (the inverse of the cumulative values of the drought index when the drought occurs), the drought caused changes in the ecohydrological variables in most regions of the world. Compared with arid and semiarid regions, ecohydrological variables are more sensitive to drought in humid and semihumid regions (p < 0.05), and high-intensity human activities in different climatic conditions increased significantly the severity of drought processes. Between 2071 and 2100, more than half of the world’s ecohydrological variables are expected to be more susceptible to drought disturbances (regions with shorter return periods of drought events that cause significant changes in ET, SM, VPD and NDVI account for 60.1%, 64.4%, 59.6% and 54.5% of the global land area, respectively).

Keystone taxa of water microbiome respond to environmental quality and predict water contamination

The human activity introduces strong environmental stresses, and results in great spatiotemporal heterogeneity for the environment. Although the effects of environmental factors on the microbial diversity and succession have been widely studied, knowledge about how keystone taxa respond to environmental stresses remains poorly understood. We examined bacterial and archaeal communities from 45 wetland ponds covering a wide range of waters in Hangzhou. We found that shifts in bacterial and archaeal communities were strongly correlated with water pollution as indicated by the comprehensive water quality identification (CWQI). The SEGMENTED analysis suggested that there were non-linear responses of microbial communities and keystone taxa to the water pollution gradient. Moreover, these significant tipping points (e.g., CWQI > 4.0) would afford a warning line for urban wetland management. Notably, keystone taxa of bacterial communities could be used to successfully (~88.9% accuracy) predict water contamination levels. This study provides new insights into the potential for keystone bacterial taxa to predict water contamination.

An ecosystem-wide reproductive failure with more snow in the Arctic

2018: Arctic researchers have just witnessed another extreme summer—but in a new sense of the word. Although public interest has long been focused on general warming trends and trends towards a lower sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, this summer saw the realization of another predicted trend: that of increasing precipitation during the winter months and of increased year-to-year variability. In a well-studied ecosystem in Northeast Greenland, this resulted in the most complete reproductive failure encountered in the terrestrial ecosystem during more than two decades of monitoring: only a few animals and plants were able to reproduce because of abundant and late melting snow. These observations, we suggest, should open our eyes to potentially drastic consequences of predicted changes in both the mean and the variability of arctic climate.

In summer 2018, many arctic regions experienced unprecedented large amounts of snow. This Perspective article reports the ecological impacts of this extreme event, and shows that the severe snow conditions resulted in an almost complete reproductive failure across the entire ecosystem. The 2018 may be a rare event, but it also offers a gloomy peep into the future.

The creation of "Ecosystem Core" hypothesis to explain ecosystem evolution

Background

Humans have dramatically changed natural ecosystems around the world as their capacity to manage their environment for multiple uses has evolved in step with agricultural, industrial and green revolutions. Numerous natural ecosystems have been replaced by various artificial or semi-artificial ecosystems, the ecosystem has changed. To a certain extent, this is ecosystem evolution. So far, there is no definite ecological theory about the mechanism for evolution of an ecosystem. Even though the discipline of community ecology has a relatively comprehensive and well-described theory of succession, at the different ecological research levels, is it the same mechanism for the community succession and ecosystem evolution? What is the factor that drives ecosystem evolution?

Results

This paper puts forward the “Ecosystem Core” hypothesis to scientifically address the above problems. We define abiotic component of ecosystem as “Ecosystem Core” or “Resource Core”, which provides the foundation (matter and energy) for the existence and progress of organisms and should be the nucleus of an ecosystem. In this paper, we explain the basic meaning of this hypothesis, review its theoretical foundation, and provide a demonstration (based on emergy theory, which is an accounting tool that considers both the environmental and economic inputs that are directly or indirectly required by a process to generate a product and it measures real wealth, independent of financial considerations) of the hypothesis, and discuss the mechanism of ecosystem evolution. The “Ecosystem Core” hypothesis reveals the quantitative relationship between the energy input and ecosystem evolution.

Conclusions

The input of artificial auxiliary energy is the direct cause of ecosystem evolution. Different combinations of natural and purchased emergy are coupled to maintain the same ecosystem under the different environmental conditions. When artificial energy enters the ecosystem, its role is similar to that of the microscopic particles that collide with the nucleus in the nuclear reaction, and after mutual reaction, the atom will form a new atomic structure, and for the ecosystem, a new form of resource composition and energy action will appear, and the corresponding species of life will change, then ecosystem complete its evolution.

Is plant survival on green roofs related to their drought response, water use or climate of origin?

Green roofs are novel urban ecosystems with shallow substrate depths and low water availability. Hence, it is critical to select green roof plants that can survive water-deficits, particularly in climates with hot and dry summers. Shrubs are perennial plants which can be drought resistant and may be suitable for green roofs. However, studies about survival and health of shrubs are limited. The aim of this study was to determine whether plant climate of origin aridity, drought response and water use strategies could be used to select shrubs which can survive on green roofs that experience water-deficit. We selected 15 shrub species from a range of climates (dry, mesic and wet) and planted them together in 20 replicate green roof modules with 130 mm deep substrate. We monitored substrate water contents, plant minimum water potentials (ψ_min), health (visual score), percentage survival and related survival with their turgor loss point (ψ_tlp) and water use strategies (evapotranspiration rates in a related glasshouse experiment). We also determined whether plants could recover after dry periods by rewatering after the summer. Mean gravimetric soil water content decreased to approximately 5% after summer drought, which resulted in mortality. Overall, survival ranged between 10% and 100% for the 15 species. However, survival was not related to their ψ_tlp or water use strategies. While shrubs from more arid climates had lower ψ_min in response to dry substrates, this did not result in greater survival and health. Following rewatering, only four shrub species resprouted. Hence, as plant drought response, water use strategy and climate of origin were not strongly related to survival, we suggest survival on green roofs is likely to be determined by a combination of physiological traits. Emergency irrigation for shrubs growing on green roofs in hot and dry climates is recommended during summer to keep them alive.

Unveiling tipping points in long-term ecological records from Sphagnum-dominated peatlands

Unveiling past tipping points is a prerequisite for a better understanding of how individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change. Such knowledge is key for the implementation of biodiversity conservation. We identify the relationships between peatland vegetation and hydrological conditions over the past 2000 years using plant macrofossils, testate amoebae-based quantitative hydrological reconstructions and Sphagnum-moss functional traits from seven Polish peatland records. Using threshold indicator taxa analysis, we discovered that plant community composition strongly converged at a water level of ca 11.7 cm, indicating a community-level tipping point. We identified 45 plant taxa that showed either an increase or a decrease in their relative abundance between 8 and 17 cm of water-level depth. Our analysis of Sphagnum community traits further showed that Sphagnum functional diversity was remarkably stable over time despite Sphagnum species sensitivity to hydrological conditions. Our results suggest that past hydrological shifts did not influence major functions of the Sphagnum community, such as photosynthetic capacity, growth and productivity, owing to species replacement with a similar functional space. Although further studies including trait plasticity will be required, our findings suggest that the capacity of the Sphagnum community to gain carbon remained stable despite hydrological changes.

Determining landscape-level drivers of variability for over fifty soil chemical elements

Syntheses of large datasets have allowed increased clarity of distribution patterns and variation in soil major and trace elements. However, the drivers of variation in topsoil elements across biogeographical scales are not well understood. Our aim was to (1) identify how landscape-scale climate, geographical features, and edaphic factors influence soil elements, and (2) determine key environmental thresholds for shifts in soil element concentration. We analyzed patterns of variation in topsoil elements using 9830 samples collected across 39,000km² in subtropical land in southeast China. Canonical correlations and multiple linear regressions were used to model variations of each element across mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), land use, spatial topography, and soil pH. Element concentrations show significant latitudinal and longitudinal trends, and are significantly influenced by climate, land use, spatial topography, and soil pH. Longitude, pH, MAT, and MAP were the environmental factors most tightly correlated with element concentrations. Climate and soil pH drove positive or negative alterations in soil elements, with threshold indicators of MAP=1000mm/1500mm, MAT=17.8°C/18.0°C, and pH=5.8/5.0, respectively. Our results indicate topsoil elements have structural and functional thresholds of climate and soil pH in relatively wet and acidic environments. Our findings can facilitate holistic soil element concentration predictions and help elucidate the specific influences of climate and soil pH, enabling development of more complete biogeochemical models.