The affect heuristic, mortality salience, and risk: domain-specific effects of a natural disaster on risk-benefit perception

Resilience and Disaster: Flexible Adaptation in the Face of Uncertain Threat

Disasters cause sweeping damage, hardship, and loss of life. In this article, we first consider the dominant psychological approach to disasters and its narrow focus on psychopathology (e.g., posttraumatic stress disorder). We then review research on a broader approach that has identified heterogeneous, highly replicable trajectories of outcome, the most common being stable mental health or resilience. We review trajectory research for different types of disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Next, we consider correlates of the resilience trajectory and note their paradoxically limited ability to predict future resilient outcomes. Research using machine learning algorithms improved prediction but has not yet illuminated the mechanism behind resilient adaptation. To that end, we propose a more direct psychological explanation for resilience based on research on the motivational and mechanistic components of regulatory flexibility. Finally, we consider how future research might leverage new computational approaches to better capture regulatory flexibility in real time.

Heuristic Information Processing as a Mediating Factor in the Process of Exposure to COVID-19 Vaccine Information and Misinformation Sharing on Social Media

Social media use for risk communication during the COVID-19 pandemic has caused considerable concerns about an overabundance of information, particularly misinformation. However, how exposure to COVID-19 information on social media can lead to subsequent misinformation sharing during the pandemic has received little research attention. This study adopted the social amplification of risk framework to delineate how exposure to COVID-19 vaccine information on social media can be associated with individuals' misinformation sharing through heuristic information processing. The role of social media trust was also examined. Results from an online survey (N = 1488) of Chinese Internet users revealed that exposure to COVID-19 vaccine information on social media was associated with misinformation sharing, mediated by both affect heuristics (i.e., negative affect toward the COVID-19 pandemic in general) and availability heuristics (i.e., perceived misinformation availability). Importantly, both high and low levels of trust in social media strengthened the mediating associations. While a low level of trust strengthened the association between exposure to COVID-19 vaccine information on social media and the affect heuristics, a high level of trust strengthened its association with the availability heuristics, both of which were associated with misinformation sharing. Our findings suggest that heuristic information processing is essential in amplifying the spread of misinformation after exposure to risk information on social media. It is also suggested that individuals should maintain a middle level of trust in social media, being open while critical of risk information on social media.

End-of-Life Preferences: A Randomized Trial of Framing Comfort Care as Refusal of Treatment in the Context of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Rates of advance directive (AD) completion in the United Kingdom are lower than in the United States and other western European countries, which is especially concerning in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. UK residents typically complete an advance decision to refuse care (ADRT), whereas US versions of ADs present a more neutral choice between comfort-oriented or life-prolonging care. The purpose of this study is to test whether this framing affects decision making for end-of-life care and if this is affected by exposure to information about the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In an online experiment, 801 UK-based respondents were randomly allocated to document their preferences for end-of-life care in a 2 (US AD or UK ADRT) by 2 (presence or absence of COVID-19 prime) between-subjects factorial design.

RESULTS

Most (74.8%) of participants across all conditions chose comfort-oriented care. However, framing comfort care as a refusal of treatment made respondents significantly less likely to choose it (65.4% v. 84.1%, P < 0.001). This effect was exacerbated by priming participants to think about COVID-19: those completing an ADRT were significantly more likely to choose life-prolonging care when exposed to the COVID-19 prime (39.8% v. 29.6%, P = 0.032). Subgroup analyses revealed these effects differed by age, with older participants' choices influenced more by COVID-19 while younger participants were more affected by the AD framing.

CONCLUSIONS

The UK ADRT significantly reduced the proportion of participants choosing comfort-oriented care, an effect that was heightened in the presence of information about COVID-19. This suggests the current way end-of-life care wishes are documented in the United Kingdom could affect people's choices in a way that does not align with their preferences, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

HIGHLIGHTS

Participants completing an AD framed as an advance decision to refuse treatment were significantly less likely to choose comfort-oriented care than participants completing an AD with a neutral choice between comfort-oriented and life-prolonging care.Exposure to a COVID-19 prime had an interactive effect on documented preferences in the refusal of treatment condition, with these participants even less likely to choose comfort-oriented care.Policy makers and organizations that design templates for advance care planning, particularly in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic, should be aware how the framing of these forms can influence decisions.

Comfort with and willingness to participate in COVID-19 contact tracing: The role of risk perceptions, trust, and political ideology

OBJECTIVE

Contact tracing (CT) can limit the spread of infectious diseases, however its effectiveness hinges on public participation. We evaluated perceptions of the financial and health risk posed by COVID-19 and trust in information about COVID-19 provided by the state health department that manages CT as predictors of comfort and willingness to comply with CT. We further examined the moderating effect of political ideology on these relationships.

METHODS

We used structural equation modeling to test hypotheses in data from a cross-sectional survey completed by a representative sample of Michigan residents (N = 805) in 2020.

RESULTS

Perceptions of the risk of COVID-19 to one's health (but not finances) was negatively related to comfort and willingness to participate in CT. Trust in information about COVID-19 and liberalism were positively related to comfort and willingness. There was also a moderating effect of political ideology, such that conservatives were less comfortable and willing at greater perceptions of health risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Conservatives and those who perceive a greater health risk may require targeted messaging and more deliberate engagement strategies to increase CT participation.

Mortality Salience Effects of Critical Incidents - A Systematic Literature Review and Research Agenda

Critical incidents (CI) trigger acute stress reactions and psychological trauma because of direct or vicarious exposure. These events include natural disasters, wars, terrorist attacks and pandemics, and usually result in deaths and serious physical injuries. Their life-threatening nature makes them reasonable candidates to induce mortality salience (MS). The current review aims to consolidate Terror Management Theory (TMT) research using CIs as MS. A systematic literature review was conducted. Overall, 74 articles with 113 studies were included. Through this review, strong support for MS effects of CI has been found. Consistent with TMT, CIs tend to trigger worldview defence, self-esteem enhancement and relationship seeking. CIs have also been found to impact negatively on individual well-being and organisational health. Recommendations specific to crisis interventions and well-being will be discussed. The review concludes with potential future research directions to strengthen and expand empirical knowledge in CI salience.

Risky Therefore Not Beneficial: Replication and Extension of Finucane et al.’s (2000) Affect Heuristic Experiment

Risks and benefits are negatively related in people’s minds. Finucane et al. causally demonstrated that increasing risks of a hazard leads people to judge its benefits as lower. Vice versa, increasing benefits leads people to judge its risks as lower (original: r = −.74 [−0.92, −0.30]). This finding is consistent with an affective explanation, and the negative relationship is often presented as evidence for an affect heuristic. In two well-powered studies, using a more stringent analytic strategy, we replicated the original finding. We observed a strong negative relationship between judgments of risks and benefits across three technologies, although we do find that there was no change in risks when highlighting low benefits. We note that risks seem to be more responsive to manipulation (as opposed to benefits) and find evidence that the negative relationship can depend on incidental mood. We provided materials, data sets, and analyses on https://osf.io/sufjn/?view_only=6f8f5dc6ff524149a4ed5c6de9296ae8 .

Revisiting 'The Plague' by Camus: Shaping the 'social absurdity' of the COVID-19 Pandemic

COVID-19 has emerged as a global health threat. The catastrophic reaction to a pandemic in spite of knowing the deadly outcomes, has been referred to as the 'social absurdity'. Such reaction creates a negativistic outlook with regard to the infection, thus contributing to chaos and preventing containment. In this article, the current pandemic of COVID-19 is revisited through the lens of Camus' 'La Peste, 1947'. The philosophical roots of social 'absurdity' during a pandemic are critically discussed in the context of death anxiety. Subsequently, ways of reshaping it are highlighted, borrowing from the theories of existentialism and positive psychology.

The Evolving Field of Risk Communication

The 40th Anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis presents an apt time to step back and review the field of risk communication. In this review, we first evaluate recent debates over the field's current state and future directions. Our takeaway is that efforts to settle on a single, generic version of what constitutes risk communication will be less productive than an open-minded exploration of the multiple forms that comprise today's vibrant interdisciplinary field. We then review a selection of prominent cognitive, cultural, and social risk communication scholarship appearing in the published literature since 2010. Studies on trust in risk communication messengers continued to figure prominently, while new research directions emerged on the opportunities and critical challenges of enhancing transparency and using social media. Research on message attributes explored how conceptual insights particularly relating to framing, affective and emotional responses, and uncertainty might be operationalized to improve message effectiveness. Studies consistently demonstrated the importance of evaluation and how varying single attributes alone is unlikely to achieve desired results. Research on risk communication audiences advanced on risk perception and multiway engagement with notable interest in personal factors such as gender, race, age, and political orientation. We conclude by arguing that the field's interdisciplinary tradition should be further nurtured to drive the next evolutionary phase of risk communication research.

The Affect Heuristic and Risk Perception - Stability Across Elicitation Methods and Individual Cognitive Abilities

The reliance on feelings when judging risks and benefits is one of the most fundamental valuation processes in risk perception. Although previous research suggests that the affect heuristic reliably predicts an inverse correlation between risk and benefit judgments, it has not yet been tested if the affect heuristic is sensitive to elicitation method effects (joint/separate evaluation) and to what extent individual differences in cognitive abilities may mediate the risk–benefit correlation. Across two studies we find that (1) the risk–benefit correlation is stable across different elicitation methods and for different domains (e.g., social domain, sensation-seeking domain, health domain, economic domain) and (2) the strength of the inverse correlation is tied to individual cognitive abilities—primarily cognitive reflection ability.

Prognostic Awareness in Adult Oncology and Palliative Care

Communicating prognosis clearly and empathically can foster accurate prognostic awareness in patients with advanced cancer and their family members. Whereas patients and doctors desire clear prognostic communication, it presents many challenges in oncologic and palliative care settings. Patients with advanced cancer often have poor prognostic awareness as a result of deficiencies in doctor communication and understandable-and potentially adaptive-attempts by patients and families to reduce the threat of death and maintain hope. Interventions to promote prognostic discussion have largely succeeded in increasing the frequency, but not necessarily the quality, of such discussions, yet have failed to improve prognostic awareness. Because clear communication of prognosis is an ethical mandate, more research is needed to provide an evidence base for teaching and practice in this area.

Waste Reduction Strategies: Factors Affecting Talent Wastage and the Efficacy of Talent Selection in Sport

Coaches are faced with the difficult task of identifying and selecting athletes to their team. Despite its widespread practice in sport, there is still much to learn about improving the identification and selection process. Evidence to date suggests selection decisions (at different competitive levels) can be inaccurate, bias driven, and sometimes even illogical. These mistakes are believed to contribute to “talent wastage,” the effect of a coach’s wrongful selection and/or deselection of an athlete to/from a team. Errors of this scale can lead to negative repercussions for all stakeholders involved and therefore deserve further exploration. It is the purpose of this paper to shed light on the potential factors influencing talent wastage and to illuminate possible psychological pitfalls when making decisions under uncertainty.

The Impact of Mortality Salience on Intergenerational Altruism and the Perceived Importance of Sustainable Development Goals

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), consisting of 17 specific goals such as ending poverty, reducing inequality, and combating climate change, were proposed by the UN member states in 2014 for the ongoing UN agenda until 2030. These goals articulate the growing need for the international community to build a sustainable future. To progress and build a truly sustainable future requires not only the immediate support of individuals for the current SDGs, but also their personal long-term commitment to the needs of future generations (i.e., intergenerational altruism). Reminders of death can influence attitudes, motivation, and behavior in various aspects of our lives. In the current research, we thus explored whether reminding individuals of their own death will influence their intergenerational altruism and perceived importance of the SDGs. Using a three-condition (mortality salience vs. dentist visit vs. neutral) randomized experiment, we found that mortality salience led participants to place a higher priority on the needs of future generations only when compared to the neutral condition. Further, we conducted a factor analysis that generated two SDGs factors (socially related SDGs and ecologically related SDGs). We found that mortality salience reduced participants' perceived importance of the socially related SDGs when compared to both the dentist visit and the neutral conditions, and mortality salience decreased participants' perceived importance of the ecologically related SDGs only when compared to the neutral condition.

A Cognitive-Affective Scale for Hurricane Risk Perception

The aim of this study was to develop a reliable and valid measure of hurricane risk perception. The utility of such a measure lies in the need to understand how people make decisions when facing an evacuation order. This study included participants located within a 15-mile buffer of the Gulf and southeast Atlantic U.S. coasts. The study was executed as a three-wave panel with mail surveys in 2010-2012 (T₀ baseline N = 629, 56%; T₁ retention N = 427, 75%; T₂ retention N = 350, 89%). An inventory based on the psychometric model was developed to discriminate cognitive and affective perceptions of hurricane risk, and included open-ended responses to solicit additional concepts in the T₀ survey. Analysis of the T₀ data modified the inventory and this revised item set was fielded at T₁ and then replicated at T₂ . The resulting scales were assessed for validity against existing measures for perception of hurricane risk, dispositional optimism, and locus of control. A measure of evacuation expectation was also examined as a dependent variable, which was significantly predicted by the new measures. The resulting scale was found to be reliable, stable, and largely valid against the comparison measures. Despite limitations involving sample size, bias, and the strength of some reliabilities, it was concluded that the measure has potential to inform approaches to hurricane preparedness efforts and advance planning for evacuation messages, and that the measure has good promise to generalize to other contexts in natural hazards as well as other domains of risk.