Genomic models predict successful coral adaptation if future ocean warming rates are reduced

Should I stay or should I go? Coral bleaching from the symbionts' perspective

Coral bleaching, the stress-induced breakdown of coral-algal symbiosis, threatens reefs globally. Paradoxically, despite adverse fitness effects, corals bleach annually, even outside of abnormal temperatures. This generally occurs shortly after the once-per-year mass coral spawning. Here, we propose a hypothesis linking annual coral bleaching and the transmission of symbionts to the next generation of coral hosts. We developed a dynamic model with two symbiont growth strategies, and found that high sexual recruitment and low adult coral survivorship and growth favour bleaching susceptibility, while the reverse promotes bleaching resilience. Otherwise, unexplained trends in the Indo-Pacific align with our hypothesis, where reefs and coral taxa exhibiting higher recruitment are more bleaching susceptible. The results from our model caution against interpreting potential shifts towards more bleaching-resistant symbionts as evidence of climate adaptation-we predict such a shift could also occur in declining systems experiencing low recruitment rates, a common scenario on today's reefs.

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

Genomic Data Reveal Diverse Biological Characteristics of Scleractinian Corals and Promote Effective Coral Reef Conservation

Reef-building corals (Scleractinia, Anthozoa, Cnidaria) are the keystone organisms of coral reefs, which constitute the most diverse marine ecosystems. Since the first decoded coral genome reported in 2011, about 40 reference genomes are registered as of 2023. Comparative genomic analyses of coral genomes have revealed genomic characters that may underlie unique biological characteristics and coral diversification. These include existence of genes for biosynthesis of mycosporine-like amino acids, loss of an enzyme necessary for cysteine biosynthesis in family Acroporidae, and lineage-specific gene expansions of DMSP lyase-like genes in the genus Acropora. While symbiosis with endosymbiotic photosynthetic dinoflagellates is a common biological feature among reef-building corals, genes associated with the intricate symbiotic relationship encompass not only those shared by many coral species, but also genes that were uniquely duplicated in each coral lineage, suggesting diversified molecular mechanisms of coral-algal symbiosis. Coral genomic data have also enabled detection of hidden, complex population structures of corals, indicating the need for species-specific, local-scale, carefully considered conservation policies for effective maintenance of corals. Consequently, accumulating coral genomic data from a wide range of taxa and from individuals of a species not only promotes deeper understanding of coral reef biodiversity, but also promotes appropriate and effective coral reef conservation. Considering the diverse biological traits of different coral species and accurately understanding population structure and genetic diversity revealed by coral genomic analyses during coral reef restoration planning could enable us to "archive" coral reef environments that are nearly identical to natural coral reefs.

Metabolic and immune costs balance during natural acclimation of corals in fluctuating environments

Epigenetic modifications based on DNA methylation can rapidly improve the potential of corals to adapt to environmental pressures by increasing their phenotypic plasticity, a factor important for scleractinian corals to adapt to future global warming. However, the extent to which corals develop similar adaptive mechanisms and their specific adaptation processes remain unclear. Here, to reveal the regulatory mechanism by which DNA methylation improves thermal tolerance in Pocillopora damicornis under fluctuating environments, we analyzed genome-wide DNA methylation signatures in P. damicornis and compared the differences in the methylation and transcriptional responses of P. damicornis from fluctuating and stable environments using whole-genome bisulfite sequencing and nanopore-based RNA sequencingtranscriptome sequencing. We discovered low methylation levels in P. damicornis (average methylation 4.14%), with CpG accounting for 74.88%, CHH for 13.27%, and CHG for 11.85% of this methylation. However, methylation levels did not change between coral samples from the fluctuating and stable environments. The varied methylation levels in different regions of the gene revealed that the overall methylation level of the gene body was relatively high and showed a bimodal methylation pattern. Methylation occurs primarily in exons rather than introns within the gene body In P. damicornis, there was only a weak correlation between methylation and transcriptional changes at the individual gene level, and the methylation and gene expression levels generally exhibited a bell-shaped relationship, which we speculate may be due to the specificity of cnidarian species. Correlation analysis between methylation levels and the transcriptome revealed that the highest proportion of the top 20 enriched KEGG pathways was related to immunity. Additionally, P. damicornis collected from a high-temperature pool had a lower metabolic rate than those collected from a low-temperature pool. We hypothesize that the dynamic balance of energy-expenditure costs between immunity and metabolism is an important strategy for increasing P. damicornis tolerance. The fluctuating environment of high-temperature pools may increase the heat tolerance in corals by increasing their immunity and thus lowering their metabolism.

Local adaptation with gene flow in a highly dispersive shark

Adaptive divergence in response to environmental clines are expected to be common in species occupying heterogeneous environments. Despite numerous advances in techniques appropriate for non-model species, gene-environment association studies in elasmobranchs are still scarce. The bronze whaler or copper shark (Carcharhinus brachyurus) is a large coastal shark with a wide distribution and one of the most exploited elasmobranchs in southern Africa. Here, we assessed the distribution of neutral and adaptive genomic diversity in C. brachyurus across a highly heterogeneous environment in southern Africa based on genome-wide SNPs obtained through a restriction site-associated DNA method (3RAD). A combination of differentiation-based genome-scan (outflank) and genotype-environment analyses (redundancy analysis, latent factor mixed models) identified a total of 234 differentiation-based outlier and candidate SNPs associated with bioclimatic variables. Analysis of 26,299 putatively neutral SNPs revealed moderate and evenly distributed levels of genomic diversity across sites from the east coast of South Africa to Angola. Multivariate and clustering analyses demonstrated a high degree of gene flow with no significant population structuring among or within ocean basins. In contrast, the putatively adaptive SNPs demonstrated the presence of two clusters and deep divergence between Angola and all other individuals from Namibia and South Africa. These results provide evidence for adaptive divergence in response to a heterogeneous seascape in a large, mobile shark despite high levels of gene flow. These results are expected to inform management strategies and policy at the national and regional level for conservation of C. brachyurus populations.

Performance of Orbicella faveolata larval cohorts does not align with previously observed thermal tolerance of adult source populations

Orbicella faveolata, commonly known as the mountainous star coral, is a dominant reef-building species in the Caribbean, but populations have suffered sharp declines since the 1980s due to repeated bleaching and disease-driven mortality. Prior research has shown that inshore adult O. faveolata populations in the Florida Keys are able to maintain high coral cover and recover from bleaching faster than their offshore counterparts. However, whether this origin-specific variation in thermal resistance is heritable remains unclear. To address this knowledge gap, we produced purebred and hybrid larval crosses from O. faveolata gametes collected at two distinct reefs in the Upper Florida Keys, a nearshore site (Cheeca Rocks, CR) and an offshore site (Horseshoe Reef, HR), in two different years (2019, 2021). We then subjected these aposymbiotic larvae to severe (36°C) and moderate (32°C) heat challenges to quantify their thermal tolerance. Contrary to our expectation based on patterns of adult thermal tolerance, HR purebred larvae survived better and exhibited gene expression profiles that were less driven by stress response under elevated temperature compared to purebred CR and hybrid larvae. One potential explanation could be the compromised reproductive output of CR adult colonies due to repeated summer bleaching events in 2018 and 2019, as gametes originating from CR in 2019 contained less storage lipids than those from HR. These findings provide an important counter-example to the current selective breeding paradigm, that more tolerant parents will yield more tolerant offspring, and highlight the importance of adopting a holistic approach when evaluating larval quality for conservation and restoration purposes.

Functional sophistication in human escape

Animals including humans must cope with immediate threat and make rapid decisions to survive. Without much leeway for cognitive or motor errors, this poses a formidable computational problem. Utilizing fully immersive virtual reality with 13 natural threats, we examined escape decisions in N = 59 humans. We show that escape goals are dynamically updated according to environmental changes. The decision whether and when to escape depends on time-to-impact, threat identity and predicted trajectory, and stable personal characteristics. Its implementation appears to integrate secondary goals such as behavioral affordances. Perturbance experiments show that the underlying decision algorithm exhibits planning properties and can integrate novel actions. In contrast, rapid information-seeking and foraging-suppression are only partly devaluation-sensitive. Instead of being instinctive or hardwired stimulus-response patterns, human escape decisions integrate multiple variables in a flexible computational architecture. Taken together, we provide steps toward a computational model of how the human brain rapidly solves survival challenges.

Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change

Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs.

Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally

Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species' existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections to 2100, we show that the area of each species' geographical range at risk of thermal exposure will expand abruptly. On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade. This abruptness is partly due to the rapid pace of future projected warming but also because the greater area available at the warm end of thermal gradients constrains species to disproportionately occupy sites close to their upper thermal limit. These geographical constraints on the structure of species ranges operate both on land and in the ocean and mean that, even in the absence of amplifying ecological feedbacks, thermally sensitive species may be inherently vulnerable to sudden warming-driven collapse. With higher levels of warming, the number of species passing these thermal thresholds, and at risk of abrupt and widespread thermal exposure, increases, doubling from less than 15% to more than 30% between 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C of global warming. These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.

Moving beyond heritability in the search for coral adaptive potential

Global environmental change is happening at unprecedented rates. Coral reefs are among the ecosystems most threatened by global change. For wild populations to persist, they must adapt. Knowledge shortfalls about corals' complex ecological and evolutionary dynamics, however, stymie predictions about potential adaptation to future conditions. Here, we review adaptation through the lens of quantitative genetics. We argue that coral adaptation studies can benefit greatly from "wild" quantitative genetic methods, where traits are studied in wild populations undergoing natural selection, genomic relationship matrices can replace breeding experiments, and analyses can be extended to examine genetic constraints among traits. In addition, individuals with advantageous genotypes for anticipated future conditions can be identified. Finally, genomic genotyping supports simultaneous consideration of how genetic diversity is arrayed across geographic and environmental distances, providing greater context for predictions of phenotypic evolution at a metapopulation scale.

Evolutionary potential mitigates extinction risk under climate change in the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher

The complexity of global anthropogenic change makes forecasting species responses and planning effective conservation actions challenging. Additionally, important components of a species' adaptive capacity, such as evolutionary potential, are often not included in quantitative risk assessments due to lack of data. While genomic proxies for evolutionary potential in at-risk species are increasingly available, they have not yet been included in extinction risk assessments at a species-wide scale. In this study, we used an individual-based, spatially explicit, dynamic eco-evolutionary simulation model to evaluate the extinction risk of an endangered desert songbird, the southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus), in response to climate change. Using data from long-term demographic and habitat studies in conjunction with genome-wide ecological genomics research, we parameterized simulations that include 418 sites across the breeding range, genomic data from 225 individuals, and climate change forecasts spanning 3 generalized circulation models and 3 emissions scenarios. We evaluated how evolutionary potential, and the lack of it, impacted population trajectories in response to climate change. We then investigated the compounding impact of drought and warming temperatures on extinction risk through the mechanism of increased nest failure. Finally, we evaluated how rapid action to reverse greenhouse gas emissions would influence population responses and species extinction risk. Our results illustrate the value of incorporating evolutionary, demographic, and dispersal processes in a spatially explicit framework to more comprehensively evaluate the extinction risk of threatened and endangered species and conservation actions to promote their recovery.

Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change

Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding the future impacts on ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals' natural adaptive capacity to such change. Here we estimate how the ability of symbionts to evolve tolerance to heat stress, or for coral hosts to shuffle to favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling, both individually and when combined, favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production (NCCP) under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19%-35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive NCCP by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP. Without symbiont adaptive capacity, the number of coral reefs with positive NCCP drops to 9%-13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive NCPP of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5).

Corals at the edge of environmental limits: A new conceptual framework to re-define marginal and extreme coral communities

The worldwide decline of coral reefs has renewed interest in coral communities at the edge of environmental limits because they have the potential to serve as resilience hotspots and climate change refugia, and can provide insights into how coral reefs might function in future ocean conditions. These coral communities are often referred to as marginal or extreme but few definitions exist and usage of these terms has therefore been inconsistent. This creates significant challenges for categorising these often poorly studied communities and synthesising data across locations. Furthermore, this impedes our understanding of how coral communities can persist at the edge of their environmental limits and the lessons they provide for future coral reef survival. Here, we propose that marginal and extreme coral communities are related but distinct and provide a novel conceptual framework to redefine them. Specifically, we define coral reef extremeness solely based on environmental conditions (i.e., large deviations from optimal conditions in terms of mean and/or variance) and marginality solely based on ecological criteria (i.e., altered community composition and/or ecosystem functioning). This joint but independent assessment of environmental and ecological criteria is critical to avoid common pitfalls where coral communities existing outside the presumed optimal conditions for coral reef development are automatically considered inferior to coral reefs in more traditional settings. We further evaluate the differential potential of marginal and extreme coral communities to serve as natural laboratories, resilience hotspots and climate change refugia, and discuss strategies for their conservation and management as well as priorities for future research. Our new classification framework provides an important tool to improve our understanding of how corals can persist at the edge of their environmental limits and how we can leverage this knowledge to optimise strategies for coral reef conservation, restoration and management in a rapidly changing ocean.

Harnessing the omics revolution to address the global biodiversity crisis

Human disturbances are altering global biodiversity in unprecedented ways. We identify three fundamental challenges underpinning our understanding of global biodiversity (namely discovery, loss, and preservation), and discuss how the omics revolution (e.g. genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and meta-omics) can help address these challenges. We also discuss how omics tools can illuminate the major drivers of biodiversity loss, including invasive species, pollution, urbanization, overexploitation, and climate change, with a special focus on highly diverse tropical environments. Although omics tools are transforming the traditional toolkit of biodiversity research, their application to addressing the current biodiversity crisis remains limited and may not suffice to offset current rates of biodiversity loss. Despite technical and logistical challenges, omics tools need to be fully integrated into global biodiversity research, and better strategies are needed to improve their translation into biodiversity policy and practice. It is also important to recognize that although the omics revolution can be considered the biologist's dream, socioeconomic disparity limits their application in biodiversity research.

Increase in the extent of mass coral bleaching over the past half-century, based on an updated global database

The recurrence of mass coral bleaching and associated coral mortality in the past few decades have raised questions about the future of coral reef ecosystems. Although coral bleaching is well studied, our understanding of the spatial extent of bleaching events continues to be limited by geographical biases in data collection. To address this gap, we updated a previous observational database and spatially modelled the probability of past bleaching occurrence. First, an existing raw observational database was updated to cover the 1963-2017 period using searches of the academic and grey literature and outreach to coral reef monitoring organizations. Then, in order to provide spatially-explicit global coverage, we employed indicator kriging to spatially model the probability of bleaching occurrence each year from 1985 through 2017 at 0.05° x 0.05° lat-long resolution. The updated raw database has 37,774 observations, including 22,650 positive bleaching reports, three times that in the previous version. The spatial interpolation suggests that 71% of the world's coral reefs likely (>66% probability) experienced bleaching at least once during the 1985 and 2017 period. The mean probability of bleaching across all reefs globally was 29-45% in the most severe bleaching years of 1998, 2005, 2010 and 2016. Modelled bleaching probabilities were positively related with annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks (DHW), a measure of thermal stress, across all years (p<0.001), and in each global bleaching event (p<0.01). In addition, the annual maximum DHW of reef cells that very likely (>90% probability) experienced bleaching increased over time at three times the rate of all reef cells, suggesting a possible increase in reef thermal tolerance. The raw and spatially interpolated databases can be used by other researchers to enhance real-time predictions, calibrate models for future projections, and assess the change in coral reef response to thermal stress over time.

Metabolomic signatures of corals thriving across extreme reef habitats reveal strategies of heat stress tolerance

Anthropogenic stressors continue to escalate worldwide, driving unprecedented declines in reef environmental conditions and coral health. One approach to better understand how corals can function in the future is to examine coral populations that thrive within present day naturally extreme habitats. We applied untargeted metabolomics (gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS)) to contrast metabolite profiles of Pocillopora acuta colonies from hot, acidic and deoxygenated mangrove environments versus those from adjacent reefs. Under ambient temperatures, P. acuta predominantly associated with endosymbionts of the genera Cladocopium (reef) or Durusdinium (mangrove), exhibiting elevated metabolism in mangrove through energy-generating and biosynthesis pathways compared to reef populations. Under transient heat stress, P. acuta endosymbiont associations were unchanged. Reef corals bleached and exhibited extensive shifts in symbiont metabolic profiles (whereas host metabolite profiles were unchanged). By contrast, mangrove populations did not bleach and solely the host metabolite profiles were altered, including cellular responses in inter-partner signalling, antioxidant capacity and energy storage. Thus mangrove P. acuta populations resist periodically high-temperature exposure via association with thermally tolerant endosymbionts coupled with host metabolic plasticity. Our findings highlight specific metabolites that may be biomarkers of heat tolerance, providing novel insight into adaptive coral resilience to elevated temperatures.

Evidence of sweepstakes reproductive success in a broadcast-spawning coral and its implications for coral metapopulation persistence

Processes governing genetic diversity and adaptive potential in reef-building corals are of interest both for fundamental evolutionary biology and for reef conservation. Here, we investigated the possibility of "sweepstakes reproductive success" (SRS) in a broadcast spawning coral, Acropora hyacinthus, at Yap Island, Micronesia. SRS is an extreme yearly variation in the number of surviving offspring among parents. It is predicted to generate genetically differentiated, low-genetic-diversity recruit cohorts, containing close kin individuals. We have tested these predictions by comparing genetic composition of size classes (adults and juveniles) at several sites on the island of Yap. We did see the genome-wide dip in genetic diversity in juveniles compared to adults at two of the four sites; however, both adults and juveniles varied in genetic diversity across sites, and there was no detectable genetic structure among juveniles, which does not conform to the classical SRS scenario. Yet, we have identified a pair of juvenile siblings at the site where juveniles had the lowest genetic diversity compared to adults, an observation that is hard to explain without invoking SRS. While further support for SRS is needed to fully settle the issue, we show that incorporating SRS into the Indo-West Pacific coral metapopulation adaptation model had surprisingly little effect on mean rates of coral cover decline during warming. Still, SRS notably increases year-to-year variation in coral cover throughout the simulation.

Small-scale genetic structure of coral populations in Palau based on whole mitochondrial genomes: Implications for future coral resilience

The ability of local populations to adapt to future climate conditions is facilitated by a balance between short range dispersal allowing local buildup of adaptively beneficial alleles, and longer dispersal moving these alleles throughout the species range. Reef building corals have relatively low dispersal larvae, but most population genetic studies show differentiation only over 100s of km. Here, we report full mitochondrial genome sequences from 284 tabletop corals (Acropora hyacinthus) from 39 patch reefs in Palau, and show two signals of genetic structure across reef scales from 1 to 55 km. First, divergent mitochondrial DNA haplotypes exist in different proportions from reef to reef, causing Phi_ST values of 0.02 (p = 0.02). Second, closely related sequences of mitochondrial Haplogroups are more likely to be co-located on the same reefs than expected by chance alone. We also compared these sequences to prior data on 155 colonies from American Samoa. In these comparisons, many Haplogroups in Palau were disproportionately represented or absent in American Samoa, and inter-regional Phi_ST = 0.259. However, we saw three instances of identical mitochondrial genomes between locations. Together, these data sets suggest two features of coral dispersal revealed by occurrence patterns in highly similar mitochondrial genomes. First, the Palau-American Samoa data suggest that long distance dispersal in corals is rare, as expected, but that it is common enough to deliver identical mitochondrial genomes across the Pacific. Second, higher than expected co-occurrence of Haplogroups on the same Palau reefs suggests greater retention of coral larvae on local reefs than predicted by many current oceanographic models of larval movement. Increased attention to local scales of coral genetic structure, dispersal, and selection may help increase the accuracy of models of future adaptation of corals and of assisted migration as a reef resilience intervention.

Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Adaptations by the coral Acropora tenuis confer resilience to future thermal stress

Elevated temperatures cause coral bleaching and reef degradation. However, coral may have strategies to survive by reproducing more heat-tolerable larvae. We examine the direct and carryover effects of thermal stress on fecundity and fitness in the reef-building coral Acropora tenuis. Fragments from the same colony are subjected to control temperature (~27.5 °C) or heat stress (~31 °C) for ten days. We then examine the fecundity of adults (egg number and size) and the thermal tolerance of larvae and recruits (survival rates, growth, and size). The stressed fragments show a trade-off in egg production, an increase in egg number but a decrease in size. In addition, larvae and recruits from the stressed colony show marginally higher survival rates in the higher water temperature but do not differ in the control condition. Therefore, corals produce more heat-resistant larvae and recruits after they experience heat stress, which may improve coral reef resilience.

Deoxygenation lowers the thermal threshold of coral bleaching

Exposure to deoxygenation from climate warming and pollution is emerging as a contributing factor of coral bleaching and mortality. However, the combined effects of heating and deoxygenation on bleaching susceptibility remain unknown. Here, we employed short-term thermal stress assays to show that deoxygenated seawater can lower the thermal limit of an Acropora coral by as much as 1 °C or 0.4 °C based on bleaching index scores or dark-acclimated photosynthetic efficiencies, respectively. Using RNA-Seq, we show similar stress responses to heat with and without deoxygenated seawater, both activating putative key genes of the hypoxia-inducible factor response system indicative of cellular hypoxia. We also detect distinct deoxygenation responses, including a disruption of O2-dependent photo-reception/-protection, redox status, and activation of an immune response prior to the onset of bleaching. Thus, corals are even more vulnerable when faced with heat stress in deoxygenated waters. This highlights the need to integrate dissolved O2 measurements into global monitoring programs of coral reefs.

Assessing the potential for demographic restoration and assisted evolution to build climate resilience in coral reefs

Interest is growing in developing conservation strategies to restore and maintain coral reef ecosystems in the face of mounting anthropogenic stressors, particularly climate warming and associated mass bleaching events. One such approach is to propagate coral colonies ex situ and transplant them to degraded reef areas to augment habitat for reef-dependent fauna, prevent colonization from spatial competitors, and enhance coral reproductive output. In addition to such "demographic restoration" efforts, manipulating the thermal tolerance of outplanted colonies through assisted relocation, selective breeding, or genetic engineering is being considered for enhancing rates of evolutionary adaptation to warming. Although research into such "assisted evolution" strategies has been growing, their expected performance remains unclear. We evaluated the potential outcomes of demographic restoration and assisted evolution in climate change scenarios using an eco-evolutionary simulation model. We found that supplementing reefs with pre-existing genotypes (demographic restoration) offers little climate resilience benefits unless input levels are large and maintained for centuries. Supplementation with thermally resistant colonies was successful at improving coral cover at lower input levels, but only if maintained for at least a century. Overall, we found that, although demographic restoration and assisted evolution have the potential to improve long-term coral cover, both approaches had a limited impact in preventing severe declines under climate change scenarios. Conversely, with sufficient natural genetic variance and time, corals could readily adapt to warming temperatures, suggesting that restoration approaches focused on building genetic variance may outperform those based solely on introducing heat-tolerant genotypes.

Within-population variability in coral heat tolerance indicates climate adaptation potential

Coral reefs are facing unprecedented mass bleaching and mortality events due to marine heatwaves and climate change. To avoid extirpation, corals must adapt. Individual variation in heat tolerance and its heritability underpin the potential for coral adaptation. However, the magnitude of heat tolerance variability within coral populations is largely unresolved. We address this knowledge gap by exposing corals from a single reef to an experimental marine heatwave. We found that double the heat stress dosage was required to induce bleaching in the most-tolerant 10%, compared to the least-tolerant 10% of the population. By the end of the heat stress exposure, all of the least-tolerant corals were dead, whereas the most-tolerant remained alive. To contextualize the scale of this result over the coming century, we show that under an ambitious future emissions scenario, such differences in coral heat tolerance thresholds equate to up to 17 years delay until the onset of annual bleaching and mortality conditions. However, this delay is limited to only 10 years under a high emissions scenario. Our results show substantial variability in coral heat tolerance which suggests scope for natural or assisted evolution to limit the impacts of climate change in the short-term. For coral reefs to persist through the coming century, coral adaptation must keep pace with ocean warming, and ambitious emissions reductions must be realized.

The immediate costs and long-term benefits of assisted gene flow in large populations

With the genetic health of many plant and animal populations deteriorating due to climate change outpacing adaptation, interventions, such as assisted gene flow (AGF), may provide genetic variation necessary for populations to adapt to climate change. We ran genetic simulations to mimic different AGF scenarios in large populations and measured their outcomes on population-level fitness to determine circumstances in which it is worthwhile to perform AGF. In the absence of inbreeding depression, AGF was beneficial within a few generations only when introduced genotypes had much higher fitness than local individuals and traits affecting fitness were controlled by a few genes of large effect. AGF was harmful over short periods (e.g., first ∼10-20 generations) if there was strong outbreeding depression or introduced deleterious genetic variation. When the adaptive trait was controlled by many loci of small effect, the benefits of AGF took over 10 generations to realize-potentially too long for most climate-related management scenarios. The genomic integrity of the recipient population typically remained intact following AGF; the amount of genetic material from the donor population usually constituted no more of the recipient population's genome than the fraction of the population introduced. Significant genomic turnover (e.g., >50% replacement) only occurred when the selective advantage of the adaptive trait and translocation fraction were extremely high. Our results will be useful when adaptive management is used to maintain the genetic health and productivity of large populations under climate change.

Coral-bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales

The global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral-bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral-reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral-reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision-making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km² ) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.

Application of Omics Tools in Designing and Monitoring Marine Protected Areas For a Sustainable Blue Economy

A key component of the global blue economy strategy is the sustainable extraction of marine resources and conservation of marine environments through networks of marine protected areas (MPAs). Connectivity and representativity are essential factors that underlie successful implementation of MPA networks, which can safeguard biological diversity and ecosystem function, and ultimately support the blue economy strategy by balancing ocean use with conservation. New “big data” omics approaches, including genomics and transcriptomics, are becoming essential tools for the development and maintenance of MPA networks. Current molecular omics techniques, including population-scale genome sequencing, have direct applications for assessing population connectivity and for evaluating how genetic variation is represented within and among MPAs. Effective baseline characterization and long-term, scalable, and comprehensive monitoring are essential for successful MPA management, and omics approaches hold great promise to characterize the full range of marine life, spanning the microbiome to megafauna across a range of environmental conditions (shallow sea to the deep ocean). Omics tools, such as eDNA metabarcoding can provide a cost-effective basis for biodiversity monitoring in large and remote conservation areas. Here we provide an overview of current omics applications for conservation planning and monitoring, with a focus on metabarcoding, metagenomics, and population genomics. Emerging approaches, including whole-genome sequencing, characterization of genomic architecture, epigenomics, and genomic vulnerability to climate change are also reviewed. We demonstrate that the operationalization of omics tools can enhance the design, monitoring, and management of MPAs and thus will play an important role in a modern and comprehensive blue economy strategy.

Challenges of sperm cryopreservation in transferring heat adaptation of corals across ocean basins

Reef-building corals live very close to their upper thermal limits and their persistence is imperiled by a rapidly warming climate. Human interventions may be used to increase the thermal limits of sensitive corals by cross-breeding with heat-adapted populations. However, the scope of breeding interventions is constrained by regional variation in the annual reproductive cycle of corals. Here we use cryopreservation technology to overcome this barrier and cross-breed conspecific coral populations across ocean basins for the first time. During regional spawning events, sperm samples were cryopreserved from populations of the widespread Indo-Pacific coral, Platygyra daedalea, from the southern Persian Gulf (maximum daily sea surface temperature of 36 °C), the Oman Sea (33 °C), and the central Great Barrier Reef (30 °C). These sperm samples were thawed during a later spawning event to test their ability to fertilize freshly spawned eggs of P. daedalea colonies from the central Great Barrier Reef. Average fertilization success for the Persian Gulf (9%) and Oman Sea (6%) sperm were 1.4-2.5 times lower than those for the native cryopreserved sperm from Great Barrier Reef (13-15%), potentially due to lower sperm quality of the Middle Eastern sperm and/or reproductive incompatibility between these distant populations. Overall, fertilization success with cryopreserved sperm was low compared with fresh sperm (>80%), likely due to the low motility of thawed sperm (≤5%, reduced from 50% to >90% in fresh sperm). To evaluate whether cross-bred offspring had enhanced thermal tolerance, the survival of larvae sired by Persian Gulf cryopreserved sperm, Great Barrier Reef cryopreserved sperm, and Great Barrier Reef fresh sperm was monitored for six days at ambient (27 °C) and elevated (33 °C) temperature. Against expectations of thermal tolerance enhancement, survival of larvae sired by Persian Gulf cryopreserved sperm was 2.6 times lower than larvae sired by Great Barrier Reef fresh sperm at 33 °C (27% versus 71%), but did not differ at 27 °C (77% versus 84%). This lack of enhanced thermal tolerance was unlikely due to outbreeding depression as survival was equally poor in larvae sired by Great Barrier Reef cryopreserved sperm. Rather, follow-up tests showed that cryoprotectant exposure during fertilization (0.1% DMSO) has a negative effect on the survival of P. daedalea larvae which is exacerbated at elevated temperature. Collectively, our findings highlight challenges of breeding corals for enhanced thermal tolerance using cryopreserved sperm, which may be overcome by methodological advances in the collection and preservation of high-quality motile sperm and minimizing the exposure time of eggs to cryoprotectants.

Intrapopulation adaptive variance supports thermal tolerance in a reef-building coral

Coral holobionts are multi-species assemblages, which adds significant complexity to genotype-phenotype connections underlying ecologically important traits like coral bleaching. Small scale heterogeneity in bleaching is ubiquitous in the absence of strong environmental gradients, which provides adaptive variance needed for the long-term persistence of coral reefs. We used RAD-seq, qPCR and LC-MS/MS metabolomics to characterize host genomic variation, symbiont community and biochemical correlates in two bleaching phenotypes of the vertically transmitting coral Montipora capitata. Phenotype was driven by symbiosis state and host genetic variance. We documented 5 gene ontologies that were significantly associated with both the binary bleaching phenotype and symbiont composition, representing functions that confer a phenotype via host-symbiont interactions. We bred these corals and show that symbiont communities were broadly conserved in bulk-crosses, resulting in significantly higher survivorship under temperature stress in juveniles, but not larvae, from tolerant parents. Using a select and re-sequence approach, we document numerous gene ontologies selected by heat stress, some of which (cell signaling, antioxidant activity, pH regulation) have unique selection dynamics in larvae from thermally tolerant parents. These data show that vertically transmitting corals may have an adaptive advantage under climate change if host and symbiont variance interact to influence bleaching phenotype.

Selective breeding of corals with different bleaching phenotypes demonstrates the potential for climate adaptation in vertically transmitting species.

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

Anthropogenic climate change has caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity across the globe, particularly on tropical coral reefs. Predicting the future vulnerability of reef-building corals, the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems, is crucial for cost-effective conservation planning in the Anthropocene. In this study, we combine regional population genetic connectivity and seascape analyses to explore patterns of genetic offset (the mismatch of gene-environmental associations under future climate conditions) in Acropora digitifera across 12 degrees of latitude in Western Australia. Our data revealed a pattern of restricted gene flow and limited genetic connectivity among geographically distant reef systems. Environmental association analyses identified a suite of loci strongly associated with the regional temperature variation. These loci helped forecast future genetic offset in gradient forest and generalised dissimilarity models. These analyses predicted pronounced differences in the response of different reef systems in Western Australia to rising temperatures. Under the most optimistic future warming scenario (RCP 2.6), we predicted a general pattern of increasing genetic offset with latitude. Under the extreme climate scenario (RCP 8.5 in 2090-2100), coral populations at the Ningaloo World Heritage Area were predicted to experience a higher mismatch between current allele frequencies and those required to cope with local environmental change, compared to populations in the inshore Kimberley region. The study suggests complex and spatially heterogeneous patterns of climate-change vulnerability in coral populations across Western Australia, reinforcing the notion that regionally tailored conservation efforts will be most effective at managing coral reef resilience into the future.

Modelling the acclimation capacity of coral reefs to a warming ocean

The symbiotic relationship between corals and photosynthetic algae is the foundation of coral reef ecosystems. This relationship breaks down, leading to coral death, when sea temperature exceeds the thermal tolerance of the coral-algae complex. While acclimation via phenotypic plasticity at the organismal level is an important mechanism for corals to cope with global warming, community-based shifts in response to acclimating capacities may give valuable indications about the future of corals at a regional scale. Reliable regional-scale predictions, however, are hampered by uncertainties on the speed with which coral communities will be able to acclimate. Here we present a trait-based, acclimation dynamics model, which we use in combination with observational data, to provide a first, crude estimate of the speed of coral acclimation at the community level and to investigate the effects of different global warming scenarios on three iconic reef ecosystems of the tropics: Great Barrier Reef, South East Asia, and Caribbean. The model predicts that coral acclimation may confer some level of protection by delaying the decline of some reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef. However, the current rates of acclimation will not be sufficient to rescue corals from global warming. Based on our estimates of coral acclimation capacities, the model results suggest substantial declines in coral abundances in all three regions, ranging from 12% to 55%, depending on the region and on the climate change scenario considered. Our results highlight the importance and urgency of precise assessments and quantitative estimates, for example through laboratory experiments, of the natural acclimation capacity of corals and of the speed with which corals may be able to acclimate to global warming.

Tropical coral reefs are among the most productive and diverse ecosystems on Earth. The success of these ecosystems depends on a symbiotic relationship between corals and unicellular algae. This relationship breaks down when water temperature increases above certain levels causing massive coral deaths. Therefore, the future of coral reef ecosystems depends on the capacity of corals to acclimate to current warming rates. Despite many studies have tried to predict the future of coral reefs, these predictions are impaired by uncertainties related to the speed with which corals can acclimate. We developed a model in which corals can acclimate to changing temperature. By comparing model results with observations of coral cover, we estimated the speed of coral acclimation at the community level in different regions of the tropics. Using this information, we quantified the future changes in coral abundances under different warming scenarios. We found that corals of the Great Barrier Reef have higher acclimation capacities than those of other regions. Our results showed substantial coral declines in South East Asia and Caribbean, especially under the highest warming scenarios. Thus, we provide evidence that natural acclimation alone may not be sufficient to offset the decline of corals caused by the expected warming trends.

Genomic insights into variation in thermotolerance between hybridizing swordtail fishes

Understanding how organisms adapt to changing environments is a core focus of research in evolutionary biology. One common mechanism is adaptive introgression, which has received increasing attention as a potential route to rapid adaptation in populations struggling in the face of ecological change, particularly global climate change. However, hybridization can also result in deleterious genetic interactions that may limit the benefits of adaptive introgression. Here, we used a combination of genome-wide quantitative trait locus mapping and differential gene expression analyses between the swordtail fish species Xiphophorus malinche and X. birchmanni to study the consequences of hybridization on thermotolerance. While these two species are adapted to different thermal environments, we document a complicated architecture of thermotolerance in hybrids. We identify a region of the genome that contributes to reduced thermotolerance in individuals heterozygous for X. malinche and X. birchmanni ancestry, as well as widespread misexpression in hybrids of genes that respond to thermal stress in the parental species, particularly in the circadian clock pathway. We also show that a previously mapped hybrid incompatibility between X. malinche and X. birchmanni contributes to reduced thermotolerance in hybrids. Together, our results highlight the challenges of understanding the impact of hybridization on complex ecological traits and its potential impact on adaptive introgression.

Spatially varying selection between habitats drives physiological shifts and local adaptation in a broadcast spawning coral on a remote atoll in Western Australia

At the Rowley Shoals in Western Australia, the prominent reef flat becomes exposed on low tide and the stagnant water in the shallow atoll lagoons heats up, creating a natural laboratory for characterizing the mechanisms of coral resilience to climate change. To explore these mechanisms in the reef coral Acropora tenuis, we collected samples from lagoon and reef slope habitats and combined whole-genome sequencing, ITS2 metabarcoding, experimental heat stress, and transcriptomics. Despite high gene flow across the atoll, we identified clear shifts in allele frequencies between habitats at relatively small linked genomic islands. Common garden heat stress assays showed corals from the lagoon to be more resistant to bleaching, and RNA sequencing revealed marked differences in baseline levels of gene expression between habitats. Our results provide new insight into the complex mechanisms of coral resilience to climate change and highlight the potential for spatially varying selection across complex coral reef seascapes to drive pronounced ecological divergence in climate-related traits.

Local adaptation in a marine foundation species: Implications for resilience to future global change

Environmental change is multidimensional, with local anthropogenic stressors and global climate change interacting to differentially impact populations throughout a species' geographic range. Within species, the spatial distribution of phenotypic variation and its causes (i.e., local adaptation or plasticity) will determine species' adaptive capacity to respond to a changing environment. However, comparatively less is known about the spatial scale of adaptive differentiation among populations and how patterns of local adaptation might drive vulnerability to global change stressors. To test whether fine-scale (2-12 km) mosaics of environmental stress can cause adaptive differentiation in a marine foundation species, eelgrass (Zostera marina), we conducted a three-way reciprocal transplant experiment spanning the length of Tomales Bay, CA. Our results revealed strong home-site advantage in growth and survival for all three populations. In subsequent common garden experiments and feeding assays, we showed that countergradients in temperature, light availability, and grazing pressure from an introduced herbivore contribute to differential performance among populations consistent with local adaptation. Our findings highlight how local-scale mosaics in environmental stressors can increase phenotypic variation among neighboring populations, potentially increasing species resilience to future global change. More specifically, we identified a range-center eelgrass population that is pre-adapted to extremely warm temperatures similar to those experienced by low-latitude range-edge populations of eelgrass, demonstrating how reservoirs of heat-tolerant phenotypes may already exist throughout a species range. Future work on predicting species resilience to global change should incorporate potential buffering effects of local-scale population differentiation and promote a phenotypic management approach to species conservation.

Machine-Learning-Based Proteomic Predictive Modeling with Thermally-Challenged Caribbean Reef Corals

Coral health is currently diagnosed retroactively; colonies are deemed “stressed” upon succumbing to bleaching or disease. Ideally, health inferences would instead be made on a pre-death timescale that would enable, for instance, environmental mitigation that could promote coral resilience. To this end, diverse Caribbean coral (Orbicella faveolata) genotypes of varying resilience to high temperatures along the Florida Reef Tract were exposed herein to elevated temperatures in the laboratory, and a proteomic analysis was taken with a subset of 20 samples via iTRAQ labeling followed by nano-liquid chromatography + mass spectrometry; 46 host coral and 40 Symbiodiniaceae dinoflagellate proteins passed all stringent quality control criteria, and the partial proteomes of biopsies of (1) healthy controls, (2) sub-lethally stressed samples, and (3) actively bleaching corals differed significantly from one another. The proteomic data were then used to train predictive models of coral colony bleaching susceptibility, and both generalized regression and machine-learning-based neural networks were capable of accurately forecasting the bleaching susceptibility of coral samples based on their protein signatures. Successful future testing of the predictive power of these models in situ could establish the capacity to proactively monitor coral health.

Applying genomics in assisted migration under climate change: Framework, empirical applications, and case studies

The rate of global climate change is projected to outpace the ability of many natural populations and species to adapt. Assisted migration (AM), which is defined as the managed movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges, is a conservation option to improve species' adaptive capacity and facilitate persistence. Although conservation biologists have long been using genetic tools to increase or maintain diversity of natural populations, genomic techniques could add extra benefit in AM that include selectively neutral and adaptive regions of the genome. In this review, we first propose a framework along with detailed procedures to aid collaboration among scientists, agencies, and local and regional managers during the decision-making process of genomics-guided AM. We then summarize the genomic approaches for applying AM, followed by a literature search of existing incorporation of genomics in AM across taxa. Our literature search initially identified 729 publications, but after filtering returned only 50 empirical studies that were either directly applied or considered genomics in AM related to climate change across taxa of plants, terrestrial animals, and aquatic animals; 42 studies were in plants. This demonstrated limited application of genomic methods in AM in organisms other than plants, so we provide further case studies as two examples to demonstrate the negative impact of climate change on non-model species and how genomics could be applied in AM. With the rapidly developing sequencing technology and accumulating genomic data, we expect to see more successful applications of genomics in AM, and more broadly, in the conservation of biodiversity.

Individual-based eco-evolutionary models for understanding adaptation in changing seas

As climate change threatens species' persistence, predicting the potential for species to adapt to rapidly changing environments is imperative for the development of effective conservation strategies. Eco-evolutionary individual-based models (IBMs) can be useful tools for achieving this objective. We performed a literature review to identify studies that apply these tools in marine systems. Our survey suggested that this is an emerging area of research fuelled in part by developments in modelling frameworks that allow simulation of increasingly complex ecological, genetic and demographic processes. The studies we identified illustrate the promise of this approach and advance our understanding of the capacity for adaptation to outpace climate change. These studies also identify limitations of current models and opportunities for further development. We discuss three main topics that emerged across studies: (i) effects of genetic architecture and non-genetic responses on adaptive potential; (ii) capacity for gene flow to facilitate rapid adaptation; and (iii) impacts of multiple stressors on persistence. Finally, we demonstrate the approach using simple simulations and provide a framework for users to explore eco-evolutionary IBMs as tools for understanding adaptation in changing seas.

Coral adaptation to climate change: Meta-analysis reveals high heritability across multiple traits

Anthropogenic climate change is a rapidly intensifying selection pressure on biodiversity across the globe and, particularly, on the world's coral reefs. The rate of adaptation to climate change is proportional to the amount of phenotypic variation that can be inherited by subsequent generations (i.e., narrow-sense heritability, h² ). Thus, traits that have higher heritability (e.g., h²  > 0.5) are likely to adapt to future conditions faster than traits with lower heritability (e.g., h²  < 0.1). Here, we synthesize 95 heritability estimates across 19 species of reef-building corals. Our meta-analysis reveals low heritability (h² < 0.25) of gene expression metrics, intermediate heritability (h²  = 0.25-0.50) of photochemistry, growth, and bleaching, and high heritability (h²  > 0.50) for metrics related to survival and immune responses. Some of these values are higher than typically observed in other taxa, such as survival and growth, while others were more comparable, such as gene expression and photochemistry. There was no detectable effect of temperature on heritability, but narrow-sense heritability estimates were generally lower than broad-sense estimates, indicative of significant non-additive genetic variation across traits. Trait heritability also varied depending on coral life stage, with bleaching and growth in juveniles generally having lower heritability compared to bleaching and growth in larvae and adults. These differences may be the result of previous stabilizing selection on juveniles or may be due to constrained evolution resulting from genetic trade-offs or genetic correlations between growth and thermotolerance. While we find no evidence that heritability decreases under temperature stress, explicit tests of the heritability of thermal tolerance itself-such as coral thermal reaction norm shape-are lacking. Nevertheless, our findings overall reveal high trait heritability for the majority of coral traits, suggesting corals may have a greater potential to adapt to climate change than has been assumed in recent evolutionary models.

Climate differently influences the genomic patterns of two sympatric marine fish species

Climate influences population genetic variation in marine species. Capturing these impacts remains challenging for marine fishes which disperse over large geographical scales spanning steep environmental gradients. It requires the extensive spatial sampling of individuals or populations, representative of seascape heterogeneity, combined with a set of highly informative molecular markers capable of revealing climatic-associated genetic variations. We explored how space, dispersal and environment shape the genomic patterns of two sympatric fish species in the Mediterranean Sea, which ranks among the oceanic basins most affected by climate change and human pressure. We hypothesized that the population structure and climate-associated genomic signatures of selection would be stronger in the less mobile species, as restricted gene flow tends to facilitate the fixation of locally adapted alleles. To test our hypothesis, we genotyped two species with contrasting dispersal abilities: the white seabream Diplodus sargus and the striped red mullet Mullus surmuletus. We collected 823 individuals and used genotyping by sequencing (GBS) to detect 8,206 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for the seabream and 2,794 for the mullet. For each species, we identified highly differentiated genomic regions (i.e. outliers) and disentangled the relative contribution of space, dispersal and environmental variables (climate, marine primary productivity) on the outliers' genetic structure to test the prevalence of gene flow and local adaptation. We observed contrasting patterns of gene flow and adaptive genetic variation between the two species. The seabream showed a distinct Alboran sea population and panmixia across the Mediterranean Sea. The mullet revealed additional differentiation within the Mediterranean Sea that was significantly correlated to summer and winter temperatures, as well as marine primary productivity. Functional annotation of the climate-associated outlier SNPs then identified candidate genes involved in heat tolerance that could be examined to further predict species' responses to climate change. Our results illustrate the key steps of a comparative seascape genomics study aiming to unravel the evolutionary processes at play in marine species, to better anticipate their response to climate change. Defining population adaptation capacities and environmental niches can then serve to incorporate evolutionary processes into species conservation planning.

Census of heat tolerance among Florida's threatened staghorn corals finds resilient individuals throughout existing nursery populations

The rapid loss of reef-building corals owing to ocean warming is driving the development of interventions such as coral propagation and restoration, selective breeding and assisted gene flow. Many of these interventions target naturally heat-tolerant individuals to boost climate resilience, but the challenges of quickly and reliably quantifying heat tolerance and identifying thermotolerant individuals have hampered implementation. Here, we used coral bleaching automated stress systems to perform rapid, standardized heat tolerance assays on 229 colonies of Acropora cervicornis across six coral nurseries spanning Florida's Coral Reef, USA. Analysis of heat stress dose-response curves for each colony revealed a broad range in thermal tolerance among individuals (approx. 2.5°C range in F_v/F_m ED50), with highly reproducible rankings across independent tests (r = 0.76). Most phenotypic variation occurred within nurseries rather than between them, pointing to a potentially dominant role of fixed genetic effects in setting thermal tolerance and widespread distribution of tolerant individuals throughout the population. The identification of tolerant individuals provides immediately actionable information to optimize nursery and restoration programmes for Florida's threatened staghorn corals. This work further provides a blueprint for future efforts to identify and source thermally tolerant corals for conservation interventions worldwide.

Functional genomics of abiotic environmental adaptation in lacertid lizards and other vertebrates

Understanding the genomic basis of adaptation to different abiotic environments is important in the context of climate change and resulting short-term environmental fluctuations. Using functional and comparative genomics approaches, we here investigated whether signatures of genomic adaptation to a set of environmental parameters are concentrated in specific subsets of genes and functions in lacertid lizards and other vertebrates. We first identify 200 genes with signatures of positive diversifying selection from transcriptomes of 24 species of lacertid lizards and demonstrate their involvement in physiological and morphological adaptations to climate. To understand how functionally similar these genes are to previously predicted candidate functions for climate adaptation and to compare them with other vertebrate species, we then performed a meta-analysis of 1,100 genes under selection obtained from -omics studies in vertebrate species adapted to different abiotic factors. We found that the vertebrate gene set formed a tightly connected interactome, which was to 23% enriched in previously predicted functions of adaptation to climate, and to a large part (18%) involved in organismal stress response. We found a much higher degree of identical genes being repeatedly selected among different animal groups (43.6%), and of functional similarity and post-translational modifications than expected by chance, and no clear functional division between genes used for ectotherm and endotherm physiological strategies. In total, 171 out of 200 genes of Lacertidae were part of this network. These results highlight an important role of a comparatively small set of genes and their functions in environmental adaptation and narrow the set of candidate pathways and markers to be used in future research on adaptation and stress response related to climate change.

Evolution and connectivity influence the persistence and recovery of coral reefs under climate change in the Caribbean, Southwest Pacific, and Coral Triangle

Corals are experiencing unprecedented decline from climate change-induced mass bleaching events. Dispersal not only contributes to coral reef persistence through demographic rescue but can also hinder or facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Locations of reefs that are likely to survive future warming therefore remain largely unknown, particularly within the context of both ecological and evolutionary processes across complex seascapes that differ in temperature range, strength of connectivity, network size, and other characteristics. Here, we used eco-evolutionary simulations to examine coral adaptation to warming across reef networks in the Caribbean, the Southwest Pacific, and the Coral Triangle. We assessed the factors associated with coral persistence in multiple reef systems to understand which results are general and which are sensitive to particular geographic contexts. We found that evolution can be critical in preventing extinction and facilitating the long-term recovery of coral communities in all regions. Furthermore, the strength of immigration to a reef (destination strength) and current sea surface temperature robustly predicted reef persistence across all reef networks and across temperature projections. However, we found higher initial coral cover, slower recovery, and more evolutionary lag in the Coral Triangle, which has a greater number of reefs and more larval settlement than the other regions. We also found the lowest projected future coral cover in the Caribbean. These findings suggest that coral reef persistence depends on ecology, evolution, and habitat network characteristics, and that, under an emissions stabilization scenario (RCP 4.5), recovery may be possible over multiple centuries.

Enhancing the heat tolerance of reef-building corals to future warming

Reef-building corals thriving in extreme thermal environments may provide genetic variation that can assist the evolution of populations to rapid climate warming. However, the feasibility and scale of genetic improvements remain untested despite ongoing population declines from recurrent thermal stress events. Here, we show that corals from the hottest reefs in the world transfer sufficient heat tolerance to a naïve population sufficient to withstand end-of-century warming projections. Heat survival increased up to 84% when naïve mothers were selectively bred with fathers from the hottest reefs because of strong heritable genetic effects. We identified genomic loci associated with tolerance variation that were enriched for heat shock proteins, oxidative stress, and immune functions. Unexpectedly, several coral families exhibited survival rates and genomic associations deviating from origin predictions, including a few naïve purebreds with exceptionally high heat tolerance. Our findings highlight previously uncharacterized enhanced and intrinsic potential of coral populations to adapt to climate warming.

Variation in Immune-Related Gene Expression Provides Evidence of Local Adaptation in Porites astreoides (Lamarck, 1816) between Inshore and Offshore Meta-Populations Inhabiting the Lower Florida Reef Tract, USA

Coral communities of the Florida Reef Tract (FRT) have changed dramatically over the past 30 years. Coral cover throughout the FRT is disproportionately distributed; >70% of total coral cover is found within the inshore patch reef zone (<2 km from shore) compared to 30% found within the offshore bank reef zone (>5 km from shore). Coral mortality from disease has been differentially observed between inshore and offshore reefs along the FRT. Therefore, differences between the response of inshore and offshore coral populations to bacterial challenge may contribute to differences in coral cover. We examined immune system activation in Porites astreoides (Lamarck, 1816), a species common in both inshore and offshore reef environments in the FRT. Colonies from a representative inshore and offshore site were reciprocally transplanted and the expression of three genes monitored biannually for two years (two summer and two winter periods). Variation in the expression of eukaryotic translation initiation factor 3, subunit H (eIF3H), an indicator of cellular stress in Porites astreoides, did not follow annual patterns of seawater temperatures (SWT) indicating the contribution of other stressors (e.g., irradiance). Greater expression of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptor associated factor 3 (TRAF3), a signaling protein of the inflammatory response, was observed among corals transplanted to, or located within the offshore environment indicating that an increased immune response is associated with offshore coral more so than the inshore coral (p < 0.001). Corals collected from the offshore site also upregulated the expression of adenylyl cyclase associated protein 2 (ACAP2), increases which are associated with decreasing innate immune system inflammatory responses, indicating a counteractive response to increased stimulation of the innate immune system. Activation of the innate immune system is a metabolically costly survival strategy. Among the two reefs studied, the offshore population had a smaller mean colony size and decreased colony abundance compared to the inshore site. This correlation suggests that tradeoffs may exist between the activation of the innate immune system and survival and growth. Consequently, immune system activation may contribute to coral community dynamics and declines along the FRT.

Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming

Global climate change is a major threat to reefs by increasing the frequency and severity of coral bleaching events over time, reducing coral cover and diversity. Ocean warming may cause shifts in coral communities by increasing temperatures above coral's upper thermal limits in tropical regions, and by making extratropical regions (marginal reefs) more suitable and potential refugia. We used Bayesian models to project coral occurrence, cover and bleaching probabilities in Southwestern Atlantic and predicted how these probabilities will change under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). By overlapping these projections, we categorized areas that combine high probabilities of coral occurrence, cover and bleaching as vulnerability-hotspots. Current coral occurrence and cover probabilities were higher in the tropics (1°S-20°S) but both will decrease and shift to new suitable extratropical reefs (20°S-27°S; tropicalization) with ocean warming. Over 90% of the area present low and mild vulnerability, while the vulnerability-hotspots represent ~ 3% under current and future scenarios, but include the most biodiverse reef complex in South Atlantic (13°S-18°S; Abrolhos Bank). As bleaching probabilities increase with warming, the least vulnerable areas that could act as potential refugia are predicted to reduce by 50%. Predicting potential refugia and highly vulnerable areas can inform conservation actions to face climate change.

Large-scale genome sampling reveals unique immunity and metabolic adaptations in bats

Comprising more than 1,400 species, bats possess adaptations unique among mammals including powered flight, unexpected longevity, and extraordinary immunity. Some of the molecular mechanisms underlying these unique adaptations includes DNA repair, metabolism and immunity. However, analyses have been limited to a few divergent lineages, reducing the scope of inferences on gene family evolution across the Order Chiroptera. We conducted an exhaustive comparative genomic study of 37 bat species, one generated in this study, encompassing a large number of lineages, with a particular emphasis on multi-gene family evolution across immune and metabolic genes. In agreement with previous analyses, we found lineage-specific expansions of the APOBEC3 and MHC-I gene families, and loss of the proinflammatory PYHIN gene family. We inferred more than 1,000 gene losses unique to bats, including genes involved in the regulation of inflammasome pathways such as epithelial defence receptors, the natural killer gene complex and the interferon-gamma induced pathway. Gene set enrichment analyses revealed genes lost in bats are involved in defence response against pathogen-associated molecular patterns and damage-associated molecular patterns. Gene family evolution and selection analyses indicate bats have evolved fundamental functional differences compared to other mammals in both innate and adaptive immune system, with the potential to enhance antiviral immune response while dampening inflammatory signalling. In addition, metabolic genes have experienced repeated expansions related to convergent shifts to plant-based diets. Our analyses support the hypothesis that, in tandem with flight, ancestral bats had evolved a unique set of immune adaptations whose functional implications remain to be explored.

Building a bridge between adaptive capacity and adaptive potential to understand responses to environmental change

Adaptive capacity is a topic at the forefront of environmental change research with roots in both social, ecological, and evolutionary science. It is closely related to the evolutionary biology concept of adaptive potential. In this systematic literature review, we: (1) summarize the history of these topics and related fields; (2) assess relationship(s) between the concepts among disciplines and the use of the terms in climate change research, and evaluate methodologies, metrics, taxa biases, and the geographic scale of studies; and (3) provide a synthetic conceptual framework to clarify concepts. Bibliometric analyses revealed the terms have been used most frequently in conservation and evolutionary biology journals, respectively. There has been a greater growth in studies of adaptive potential than adaptive capacity since 2001, but a greater geographical extent of adaptive capacity studies. Few studies include both, and use is often superficial. Our synthesis considers adaptive potential as one process contributing to adaptive capacity of complex systems, notes "sociological" adaptive capacity definitions include actions aimed at desired outcome (i.e., policies) as a system driver whereas "biological" definitions exclude such drivers, and suggests models of adaptive capacity require integration of evolutionary and social-ecological system components.

Coral bleaching response is unaltered following acclimatization to reefs with distinct environmental conditions

Ocean warming has caused catastrophic losses of corals on reefs worldwide and is intensifying faster than the adaptive rate of most coral populations that remain. Human interventions, such as propagation of heat-resistant corals, may help maintain reef function and delay further devastation of these valuable ecosystems as society confronts the climate crisis. However, exposing adult corals to a complex suite of new environmental conditions could lead to tradeoffs that alter their heat stress responses, and empirical data are needed to test the utility of this approach. Here, we show that corals transplanted to novel reef conditions did not exhibit changes in their heat stress response or negative fitness tradeoffs, supporting the inclusion of this approach in our management arsenal.

Urgent action is needed to prevent the demise of coral reefs as the climate crisis leads to an increasingly warmer and more acidic ocean. Propagating climate change–resistant corals to restore degraded reefs is one promising strategy; however, empirical evidence is needed to determine whether stress resistance is affected by transplantation beyond a coral’s native reef. Here, we assessed the performance of bleaching-resistant individuals of two coral species following reciprocal transplantation between reefs with distinct pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, sedimentation, and flow dynamics to determine whether heat stress response is altered following coral exposure to novel physicochemical conditions in situ. Critically, transplantation had no influence on coral heat stress responses, indicating that this trait was relatively fixed. In contrast, growth was highly plastic, and native performance was not predictive of performance in the novel environment. Coral metabolic rates and overall fitness were higher at the reef with higher flow, salinity, sedimentation, and diel fluctuations of pH and dissolved oxygen, and did not differ between native and cross-transplanted corals, indicating acclimatization via plasticity within just 3 mo. Conversely, cross-transplants at the second reef had higher fitness than native corals, thus increasing the fitness potential of the recipient population. This experiment was conducted during a nonbleaching year, so the potential benefits to recipient population fitness are likely enhanced during bleaching years. In summary, this study demonstrates that outplanting bleaching-resistant corals is a promising tool for elevating the resistance of coral populations to ocean warming.

Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming

Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world's coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.