How to protect half of Earth to ensure it protects sufficient biodiversity

Shifting forward: Urban ecology in perspective

The world has become urban; cities increasingly shape our worldviews, relation to other species, and the large-scale, long-term decisions we make. Cities are nature, but they need to align better with other ecosystems to avoid accelerating climate change and loss of biodiversity. We need a science to guide urban development across the diverse realities of global cities. This need can be met, in part, by shifts in urban ecology and its linkages to related sciences. This perspective is a "synthesis of syntheses", consolidating ideas from the other articles in the Special Section. It re-examines the role of urban ecology, and explores its integration with other disciplines that study cities. We conclude by summarizing the next steps in the ongoing shift in urban ecology, which is fast becoming an integral part of urban studies.

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem's carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Global patterns of human-wildlife spatial associations and implications for differentiating conservation strategies

Understanding the global patterns of human and wildlife spatial associations is essential for pragmatic conservation implementation, yet analytical foundations and indicator-based assessments that would further this understanding are lacking. We integrated the global distributions of 30,664 terrestrial vertebrates and human pressures to map human-nature index (HNI) categories that indicate the extent and intensity of human-wildlife interactions. Along the 2 dimensions of biodiversity and human activity, the HNI allowed placement of terrestrial areas worldwide in one of 4 HNI categories: anthropic (human-dominated areas), wildlife-dominated (little human influence and rich in wildlife), co-occurring (substantial presence of humans and wildlife), and harsh-environment (limited presence of humans and wildlife) areas. The HNI varied considerably among taxonomic groups, and the leading driver of HNI was global climate patterns. Co-occurring regions were the most prevalent (35.9%), and wildlife-dominated and anthropic regions encompassed 26.45% and 6.50% of land area, respectively. Our results highlight the necessity for customizing conservation strategies to regions based on human-wildlife spatial associations and the distribution of existing protected area networks. Human activity and biodiversity should be integrated for complementary strategies to support conservation toward ambitious and pragmatic 30×30 goals.

Natural vegetation biomass and the dimension of forest quality in tropical agricultural landscapes

Forest cover has been a pivotal indicator of biological conservation and carrying capacity for wildlife in forest ecoregions. Such a relationship underpins policies focused on the extension of protected lands. Here, we estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) as a proxy for habitat quality in seminatural rural patches and provide a comparison with approaches that only consider forest cover. We hypothesize that recommendations for biological conservation in agricultural landscapes are substantially improved if habitat quality is also taken into account, and thus consider the possibility of forest quality being modulated by land-use amount, type, and age. We assessed AGB in a densely farmed Brazilian region using a straightforward approach designed to be affordable at large scales, focusing on two expanding and contrasting land uses: sugarcane, and eucalyptus plantations. At a detailed scale, we confirmed through field surveys and AGB estimation using 3D-multispectral imagery (i.e., AGB = 0.842 × vegetation heightNDVI+1) that AGB variation could be predicted with forest degradation classes that are visually distinguishable with high-resolution images: 9.33 t ha-1 (90% predictive intervals [PI] = [3.23, 26.97]) in regenerating fields (RF), 31.12 t ha-1 (90% PI = [10.77, 89.90]) in pioneer woods (PW), and 149.04 t ha-1 (90% PI = [51.59, 430.58]) in dense forests (DF). Applying these values to land units sampled across the study region, we found an average land use of 88.5%, together with 11.5% of land set aside for conservation, which reduced AGB to less than 4.2% of its potential (averages of 5.85 t ha-1 in sugarcane-dominated areas and 6.56 t ha-1 in eucalyptus-dominated areas, with secondary forests averaging 149.04 t ha-1). This imbalance between forest cover and AGB resulted from forest quality decay, which was similarly severe among land-use types, ages, and extensions. Therefore, the shortage of trophic resources is likely more critical to wildlife than spatial limitations in vastly deforested tropical ecoregions, where AGB and carbon sinks can be more than doubled just by restoring forests in lands currently spared by agriculture.

Risk from future climate change to Pakistan's protected area network: A composite analysis for hotspot identification

As climate change becomes a primary driver of global ecosystem deterioration and biodiversity loss, protected areas (PAs) are posed to play a crucial conservation role. At a global scale, 17 % of land is currently covered by PAs; a figure expected to reach 30 % by 2030 under the UN post-2020 global biodiversity framework. However, focusing only on the percent coverage of PAs without assessing their efficacy may not accomplish the intended conservation goals. Here, we present the first assessment of the risk from climate change to existing PAs and non-protected lands across Pakistan by combining data on the local exposure and vulnerability of 409 species of birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians to multidimensional changes in climate by mid (2040-2060) and late (2061-2080) century under two climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that between 7 % (2050 RCP4.5) and 19 % (2080 RCP8.5) of the current network of PAs, mostly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, are projected to be under future extreme risk (i.e., highly exposed areas containing highly vulnerable communities). Importantly, hotspots of risk within these PAs are projected to significantly expand over time and with increasing severity of the scenario. In contrast, PAs in the northern part of the country are projected to remain under moderate to low risk. Results are subject to variability across the country reflecting interesting differences in climate change exposure and species vulnerability between protected and non-protected lands. Importantly, significantly lower level of risks from future climate change are projected for PAs than non-protected lands across emission scenarios and periods suggesting potential candidate areas for the future expansion of the country's PA network. Our analysis provides novel insights that can help inform conservation decisions and management at a time when the country is investing in ambitious efforts to expand its network of protected areas.

Conservation gaps and priorities of range-restricted birds in the Northern Andes

The ongoing destruction of habitats in the tropics accelerates the current rate of species extinction. Range-restricted species are exceptionally vulnerable, yet we have insufficient knowledge about their protection. Species' current distributions, range sizes, and protection gaps are crucial to determining conservation priorities. Here, we identified priority range-restricted bird species and their conservation hotspots in the Northern Andes. We employed maps of the Area of Habitat (AOH), that better reflect their current distributions than existing maps. AOH provides unprecedented resolution and maps a species in the detail essential for practical conservation actions. We estimated protection within each species' AOH and for the cumulative distribution of all 335 forest-dependent range-restricted birds across the Northern Andes. For the latter, we also calculated protection across the elevational gradient. We estimated how much additional protection community lands (Indigenous and Afro-Latin American lands) would contribute if they were conservation-focused. AOHs ranged from 8 to 141,000 km2. We identified four conservation priorities based on cumulative species richness: the number of AOHs stacked per unit area. These priorities are high-resolution mapped representations of Endemic Bird Areas for the Tropical Andes that we consider critically important. Protected areas cover only 31% of the cumulative AOH, but community lands could add 19% more protection. Sixty-two per cent of the 335 species have ranges smaller than their published estimates, yet IUCN designates only 23% of these as Threatened. We identified 50 species as top conservation priorities. Most of these concentrate in areas of low protection near community lands and at middle elevations where, on average, only 34% of the land is protected. We highlight the importance of collaborative efforts among stakeholders: governments should support private and community-based conservation practices to protect the region with the most range-restricted birds worldwide.

Progress developing the concept of other effective area-based conservation measures

In 2010, the introduction of other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) into international policy caused a paradigm shift in area-based conservation, which included consideration of areas outside formal protected areas and places where biodiversity conservation may not be a management objective for the site. Despite the importance of this shift for global conservation, conservation science and policy have been slow to engage with the concept of OECMs. As the world moves toward protecting 30% of the Earth by 2030, it is imperative to develop evidence-based guidance for how to identify effective conservation measures, especially tools to help evaluate and monitor the biodiversity outcomes associated with potential OECMs. To understand the current progress in developing the concept of OECMs, I evaluated the peer-reviewed literature to consolidate and synthesize current knowledge. I conducted a thematic analysis of papers to identify the types of challenges and opportunities being discussed and lessons from studies evaluating the effectiveness of OECMs. Only 105 studies mentioned OECMs, and those that did rarely move beyond superficial mention of OECMs as part of area-based conservation. Around one-half of studies listed potential risks or benefits of OECMs but none provided evidence these issues have materialized. Twenty-three studies attempted to identify potential OECMs, although specific case studies were rare. The 7 studies that evaluated existing OECMs were highly critical of how they had been implemented to date. Studies that evaluated conservation outcomes were extremely rare, and suggested effectiveness must be judged on a case-by-case basis. The current literature not only leaves many gaps in the science required to operationalize the concept of OECMs, but also often raises additional questions that need to be addressed. If these gaps are not filled by robust science, the promised benefits for biodiversity from OECMs may never be realized.

Assessing and optimizing the effectiveness of protected areas along China's coastal region: A social-ecological protected area network study

Effectiveness of protected areas (EPA) evaluation has been used to measure the effectiveness of existing protected areas (PAs) and to identify prioritized and inefficient PAs. However, the current EPA evaluation remains incomplete, primarily due either to the scale of evaluation focusing on only isolated PAs without considering network connectivity or to the difficulty of balancing social and ecological synergy in practice. To address this issue, we proposed a social-ecological connectivity pathway to maximize the evaluation and optimization of EPA in a coastal region: first, we selected social and ecological indicators for habitat suitability evaluation and simulated the protected area network (PAN); second, we evaluated the rationality of network connectivity; and ultimately, we identified conservation gaps to the post-2020 global biodiversity target. Considering the complexity of coastal ecosystems, we selected the four coastal cities of the Shandong Peninsula, China as a case study. We find that (1) the social-ecological PAN consists of 370 primary corridors and 110 secondary corridors; there are 12 cross-ecosystem types in the identified PANs, three of which span marine to terrestrial ecosystems, while the remaining nine span terrestrial interior ecosystems; (2) 66 nodes were identified as spatial gaps; the benefit gap indicated that 51.75% of PAs were inefficiently protected but 48.25% were appropriately protected; regarding quantity gap, the marine PAs gap (25.41%) is much larger than the terrestrial PAs gap (15.80%), suggesting a possible priority in the marine PAs appropriately. Our study reveals that the EPA in the coastal region is currently weak and urgently needs to improve. Thus, we propose measures to optimize the EPA and suggest its potential application to other PAs in complex and vulnerable coastal regions.

Notable conservation gaps for biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate change adaptation on the Tibetan Plateau, China

Incorporating biodiversity, ecosystem services (ESs) and climate change adaptation into the conservation targets of protected areas (PAs) is being acknowledged. Targeting conservation actions requires a thorough understanding of the relationship between PAs and these important regions. However, few studies have identified conservation gaps while simultaneously considering these three aspects. Here, we assessed the representativeness of the PAs network for biodiversity, ESs and climate refugia (as a proxy for climate change adaptation ability) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Our analysis showed that these priority conservation regions were primarily located in the south and southeast of the TP, while they were impacted by intense human pressure. Most ESs and all types of species richness showed a significant positive correlation. Additionally, a positive correlation between multiple climate refugia and different types of species richness was detected. Representativeness analysis revealed notable conservation gaps for these three aspects in existing PAs, highlighting the urgency of adjusting their distribution and improving their representativeness. By integrating these conservation targets, priority regions for future conservation were further delineated. Taken together, our findings contribute to improving the efficiency of PAs and optimizing conservation planning.

Incorporating global change reveals extinction risk beyond the current Red List

Global changes over the past few decades have caused species distribution shifts and triggered population declines and local extinctions of many species. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species (Red List) is regarded as the most comprehensive tool for assessing species extinction risk and has been used at regional, national, and global scales. However, most Red Lists rely on the past and current status of species populations and distributions but do not adequately reflect the risks induced by future global changes. Using distribution maps of >4,000 endemic woody species in China, combined with ensembled species distribution models, we assessed the species threat levels under future climate and land-cover changes using the projected changes in species' suitable habitats and compared our updated Red List with China's existing Red List. We discover an increased number of threatened species in the updated Red List and increased threat levels of >50% of the existing threatened species compared with the existing one. Over 50% of the newly identified threatened species are not adequately covered by protected areas. The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, rather than the Hengduan Mountains, is the distribution center of threatened species on the updated Red Lists, as opposed to the threatened species on the existing Red List. Our findings suggest that using Red Lists without considering the impacts of future global changes will underestimate the extinction risks and lead to a biased estimate of conservation priorities, potentially limiting the ability to meet the Kunming-Montreal global conservation targets.

Making protected areas effective for biodiversity, climate and food

The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was among the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss continues unabated despite efforts to protect 17% of land and 10% of the oceans by 2020. This casts doubt on whether extending PAs to 30%, the agreed target in the Kunming-Montreal GBF, will indeed achieve meaningful biodiversity benefits. Critically, the focus on area coverage obscures the importance of PA effectiveness and overlooks concerns about the impact of PAs on other sustainability objectives. We propose a simple means of assessing and visualising the complex relationships between PA area coverage and effectiveness and their effects on biodiversity conservation, nature-based climate mitigation and food production. Our analysis illustrates how achieving a 30% PA global target could be beneficial for biodiversity and climate. It also highlights important caveats: (i) achieving lofty area coverage objectives alone will be of little benefit without concomitant improvements in effectiveness, (ii) trade-offs with food production particularly for high levels of coverage and effectiveness are likely and (iii) important differences in terrestrial and marine systems need to be recognized when setting and implementing PA targets. The CBD's call for a significant increase in PA will need to be accompanied by clear PA effectiveness goals to reduce and revert dangerous anthropogenic impacts on socio-ecological systems and biodiversity.

How to balance land demand conflicts to guarantee sustainable land development

Severe arable land loss and ecological problems raise attention to protect/develop land for food and ecology demand. Spatial conflict appears in front of multidemand for urbanization, food, and ecology. Our study took China as an example and explicitly outlined spatial preference of urbanization, food, and ecology. From the aspect of land amount, there are enough lands to support multidemand with a surplus of agriculture land of 45.5 × 10⁶ ha. However, spatial conflict widely appears among the multidemands. We tested the impacts of different priorities on urban pattern, crop yield, and ecology and found the priority of food > ecology > urbanization gave the best outcome. Our results verified the importance of including priority of land multidemand to avoid confusion and increase efficiency in the implementation of land policies.

Upgrading protected areas can improve or reverse the decline in conservation effectiveness: Evidence from the Tibetan Plateau, China

Protected areas (PAs) are considered essential for maintaining biodiversity. Several governments would like to strengthen the management levels of their PAs (as shorthand for a hierarchy in PA administrative governance) to consolidate their conservation effectiveness. This upgrade (e.g., from provincial- to national-level PAs) means stricter protection and increased funds for PA management. However, confirming whether such an upgrade can produce the expected positive outcomes is key given limited conservation funds. Here, we used the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method to quantify the impacts of upgrading PAs (i.e., from provincial to national) on vegetation growth on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We found that the impacts of PA's upgrading can be divided into two impact types: 1) curbed or reversed declines in conservation effectiveness and 2) rapidly increased conservation effectiveness before the upgrade. These results indicate that the PA's upgrading process (including the pre-upgrade operations) can improve PA effectiveness. Nevertheless, the gains did not always occur after the official upgrade. This study demonstrated that in comparison to other PAs, those with more resources or stronger management policies were more effective.

Governance paradox: implications from Japan's national parks for managing complex protected areas

Herein, we discuss the governance implications for emerging protected areas with complexity in the 2020s by analyzing public-private partnership frameworks in Japan's national parks. First, we summarize previous literature to elucidate the characteristics of Japan's national park management as "weak government" represented by a lack of administrative resources and weak regulatory power. Second, we identify the weak implementation of two legal public-private partnership frameworks from questionnaires and interviews: the Park Management Organization and the Scenic Area Protection Agreement. We discuss the high transaction costs and lack of sufficient benefits to the private sector as the main reasons behind weak implementation. We identify this mismatch as a "governance paradox" and argue that sufficient administrative support and institutional design are indispensable for active partnership implementation.

Accelerated cropland expansion into high integrity forests and protected areas globally in the 21st century

Intact forests and protected areas (PAs) are central to global biodiversity conservation and nature-based climate change mitigation. However, cropland encroachment threatens the ecological integrity and resilience of their functioning. Using satellite observations, we find that a large proportion of croplands in the remaining forests globally have been gained during 2003-2019, especially for high-integrity forests (62%) and non-forest biomes (60%) and tropical forests (47%). Cropland expansion during 2011-2019 in forests globally has even doubled (130% relative increase) than 2003-2011, with high medium-integrity (190%) and high-integrity (165%) categories and non-forest (182%) and tropical forest biomes (136%) showing higher acceleration. Unexpectedly, a quarter of croplands in PAs globally were gained during 2003-2019, again with a recent accelerated expansion (48%). These results suggest insufficient protection of these irreplaceable landscapes and a major challenge to global conservation. More effective local, national, and international coordination among sustainable development goals 15, 13, and 2 is urgently needed.

Limited co-benefits of protected areas in southwest China under current climate change and human modification

An ambitious new Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework "Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework" has been developed. However, the combined effects of climate change and human modification can undermine the potential benefits of the global post-2020 conservation efforts. The co-benefits of stabilizing the climate, conserving biodiversity, and maintaining intact wilderness areas may help to persuade the general public of the need to quickly expand existing protected areas (PAs). To maximize the co-benefits after 2020, the careful optimization of existing (PAs) network and scientific identification of conservation targets are both essential. Here, we mapped hotspots of biodiversity, climate vulnerability, and wilderness in Southwest China (SWC). By analyzing the representativeness and gaps of the existing PAs network in SWC, we devised post-2020 conservation targets and highlighted their implications for decision-makers. Our results showed that the incongruence between hotspots of different species exists, indicating that habitats suitable for one taxon may not fully harbor other taxa. According to our assessment, the five jurisdictions of SWC have warmed on average by 0.4°C-1.1 °C over the past 60 years alone. In particular, biodiversity hotspots in SWC are undergoing stark climatic changes. We uncovered prominent conservation gaps in SWC's network of PAs, especially in terms of climate vulnerability and biodiversity. Due to their insufficient number and unreasonable spatial distribution, the PAs network in SWC may be not capable of meeting its biodiversity, climate vulnerability, and wilderness conservation objectives. To rectify this, we proposed a 3-step mission: milestone 2025, milestone 2030, and goal 2050, which aims to protect 23%, 28%, and 60% of the terrestrial area in SWC, respectively. Taken together, our study derived conservation priority areas with relatively clear spatial boundaries and importance levels, thus providing detailed, timely information for decision-makers to expand the PAs network and implement conservation measures varying in strictness in post-2020 conservation practice.

Safety Net Ontario: Ontario’s outsized role in the “Global Safety Net” for climate and biodiversity

Dinerstein et al. present a spatially explicit global framework for protected areas needed to reverse catastrophic biodiversity losses and stabilize climate. The Province of Ontario (Canada) stands out in this “Global Safety Net (GSN)” as a critical jurisdiction for meeting those goals, because of both the large extent of roadless lands and high carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Simultaneously, pressure is increasing to develop unmanaged lands in Ontario, particularly in the Far North, for resource extraction. Here, we extract data from the GSN to identify and calculate the areal extent of target regions present in Ontario and critically review the results in terms of accuracy and implications for conservation. We show that when region-specific data are incorporated, Ontario is even more significant than what is shown in the GSN, especially in terms of carbon stocks in forested and open peatlands. Additionally, the biodiversity metrics used in the GSN only partially capture opportunities for conservation in Ontario, and the officially recognized extent of Indigenous lands vastly underestimates the role of First Nations in conservation. Despite these limitations, our analyses indicate that Ontario plays an outsized role in terms of its potential to impact the trajectories both of biodiversity and climate globally.

A framework for identifying bird conservation priority areas in croplands at national level

Global biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate, and the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework requires each country to fulfill the conservation targets in biodiversity-inclusive spatial planning. Croplands provide habitat and food for many species, making them crucial for biodiversity conservation in addition to food production. Assessing conservation priorities in cropland is a prerequisite to allocate conservation resources and plan actions for better conservation outcomes. Yet quantitative methods to assess cropland conservation priority for biodiversity conservation at a national scale are still lacking. We proposed a framework for identifying the conservation priority in cropland for bird species at a national scale and applied the framework in China. We calculated the suitable habitat for each species and used a complementarity-based approach to designate the irreplaceable conservation priority areas considering richness, threatened level, and conservation percentage targets. We identified cropland taking up 6.76% of China's land area as a bird conservation priority, partially covering the suitable habitat of all the study species. By analyzing the landscape pattern of the priority areas and species' foraging traits, we provided policy-making suggestions according to area-specific characteristics. This framework can be used to identify priority areas for large-scale biodiversity conservation for different countries.

Preserving the woody plant tree of life in China under future climate and land-cover changes

The tree of life (TOL) is severely threatened by climate and land-cover changes. Preserving the TOL is urgent, but has not been included in the post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Protected areas (PAs) are fundamental for biological conservation. However, we know little about the effectiveness of existing PAs in preserving the TOL of plants and how to prioritize PA expansion for better TOL preservation under future climate and land-cover changes. Here, using high-resolution distribution maps of 8732 woody species in China and phylogeny-based Zonation, we find that current PAs perform poorly in preserving the TOL both at present and in 2070s. The geographical coverage of TOL branches by current PAs is approx. 9%, and less than 3% of the identified priority areas for preserving the TOL are currently protected. Interestingly, the geographical coverage of TOL branches by PAs will be improved from 9% to 52-79% by the identified priority areas for PA expansion. Human pressures in the identified priority areas are high, leading to high cost for future PA expansion. We thus suggest that besides nature reserves and national parks, other effective area-based conservation measures should be considered. Our study argues for the inclusion of preserving the TOL in the post-2020 conservation framework, and provides references for decision-makers to preserve the Earth's evolutionary history.

Geographic range size, water temperature, and extrinsic threats predict the extinction risk in global cetaceans

Despite the fact that cetaceans provide significant ecological contributions to the health and stability of aquatic ecosystems, many are highly endangered with nearly one-third of species assessed as threatened with extinction. Nevertheless, to date, few studies have explicitly examined the patterns and processes of extinction risk and threats for this taxon, and even less between the two subclades (Mysticeti and Odontoceti). To fill this gap, we compiled a dataset of six intrinsic traits (active region, geographic range size, body weight, diving depth, school size, and reproductive cycle), six environmental factors relating to sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration, and two human-related threat indices that are commonly recognized for cetaceans. We then employed phylogenetic generalized least squares models and model selection to identify the key predictors of extinction risk in all cetaceans, as well as in the two subclades. We found that geographic range size, sea surface temperature, and human threat index were the most important predictors of extinction risk in all cetaceans and in odontocetes. Interestingly, maximum body weight was positively associated with the extinction risk in mysticetes, but negatively related to that for odontocetes. By linking seven major threat types to extinction risk, we further revealed that fisheries bycatch was the most common threat, yet the impacts of certain threats could be overestimated when considering all species rather than just threatened ones. Overall, we suggest that conservation efforts should focus on small-ranged cetaceans and species living in warmer waters or under strong anthropogenic pressures. Moreover, further studies should consider the threatened status of species when superimposing risk maps and quantifying risk severity. Finally, we emphasize that mysticetes and odontocetes should be conserved with different strategies, because their extinction risk patterns and major threat types are considerably different. For instance, large-bodied mysticetes and small-ranged odontocetes require special conservation priority.

Spatial evaluation of the ecological value importance of national park in Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon

The Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon (YTGC) region is one of China's vital gene banks of mountain biological species resources. It is also an experimental site for biologists worldwide to study how organisms differentiate in the exceptional environment of the plateau. Evaluating the importance of the ecological value and identifying extremely important regions to national parks to implement the strictest conservation is significant to protecting and preserving global biodiversity. YTGC as the study area, and a comprehensive evaluation model conformed to ecological value attributes was established: (i) evaluation of ecosystem service function, including water retention, soil and water conservation and biodiversity maintenance; (ii) evaluation of ecological vulnerability, including soil erosion and geological disasters; (iii) evaluation of ecological conservation, including Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs), Global 200 Ecoregions (G200), Biodiversity Hotspots (BH), Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs) and Priority Areas for Biodiversity Conservation in China (PABCC). Identifying as extremely important, important, and general important regions, then mosaicked with the maximum value. The results show: first, the extremely important regions of ecosystem service are about 30,242.90 km² (45.64%), distributed in most regions flowing southwest along the Yarlung Zangbo River. Second, the ecological vulnerability regions are about 26,561.65 km² (40.06%), concentrated and contiguously distributed in the valley regions along the Yarlung Zangbo River and the high-altitude glacier-covered regions. Third, the extremely important regions for ecological conservation are mainly distributed in Milin County (39.86%) and Medog County (36.33%), which also presents a clustered distribution in the highly high mountains with apparent differentiation along the Yarlung Zangbo River valley in Milin County and the vertical natural belt centered on the Namjagbarwa and the Galabai Leifeng. Finally, we proposed that the integrated extremely important regions of ecological value should be divided into national parks for strict conservation; at the same time, it is also a reference for considering the construction of biodiversity conservation corridors when roads pass through the extremely important regions. This study presents a reliable and integrative method for effectively identifying conservation priority areas at small-medium scales, which can be applied to other PAs planning and management.

Social science for conservation in working landscapes and seascapes

Biodiversity is in precipitous decline globally across both terrestrial and marine environments. Therefore, conservation actions are needed everywhere on Earth, including in the biodiversity rich landscapes and seascapes where people live and work that cover much of the planet. Integrative landscape and seascape approaches to conservation fill this niche. Making evidence-informed conservation decisions within these populated and working landscapes and seascapes requires an in-depth and nuanced understanding of the human dimensions through application of the conservation social sciences. Yet, there has been no comprehensive exploration of potential conservation social science contributions to working landscape and seascape initiatives. We use the Smithsonian Working Land and Seascapes initiative – an established program with a network of 14 sites around the world – as a case study to examine what human dimensions topics are key to improving our understanding and how this knowledge can inform conservation in working landscapes and seascapes. This exploratory study identifies 38 topics and linked questions related to how insights from place-based and problem-focused social science might inform the planning, doing, and learning phases of conservation decision-making and adaptive management. Results also show how conservation social science might yield synthetic and theoretical insights that are more broadly applicable. We contend that incorporating insights regarding the human dimensions into integrated conservation initiatives across working landscapes and seascapes will produce more effective, equitable, appropriate and robust conservation actions. Thus, we encourage governments and organizations working on conservation initiatives in working landscapes and seascapes to increase engagement with and funding of conservation social science.

Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years

Global warming, habitat loss and overexploitation of limited resources are leading to alarming biodiversity declines. Ecosystems are complex adaptive systems that display multiple alternative states and can shift from one to another in abrupt ways. Some of these tipping points have been identified and predicted by mathematical and computational models. Moreover, multiple scales are involved and potential mitigation or intervention scenarios are tied to particular levels of complexity, from cells to human–environment coupled systems. In dealing with a biosphere where humans are part of a complex, endangered ecological network, novel theoretical and engineering approaches need to be considered. At the centre of most research efforts is biodiversity, which is essential to maintain community resilience and ecosystem services. What can be done to mitigate, counterbalance or prevent tipping points? Using a 30-year window, we explore recent approaches to sense, preserve and restore ecosystem resilience as well as a number of proposed interventions (from afforestation to bioengineering) directed to mitigate or reverse ecosystem collapse. The year 2050 is taken as a representative future horizon that combines a time scale where deep ecological changes will occur and proposed solutions might be effective.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

High exposure of global tree diversity to human pressure

Safeguarding Earth's tree diversity is a conservation priority due to the importance of trees for biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services such as carbon sequestration. Here, we improve the foundation for effective conservation of global tree diversity by analyzing a recently developed database of tree species covering 46,752 species. We quantify range protection and anthropogenic pressures for each species and develop conservation priorities across taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity dimensions. We also assess the effectiveness of several influential proposed conservation prioritization frameworks to protect the top 17% and top 50% of tree priority areas. We find that an average of 50.2% of a tree species' range occurs in 110-km grid cells without any protected areas (PAs), with 6,377 small-range tree species fully unprotected, and that 83% of tree species experience nonnegligible human pressure across their range on average. Protecting high-priority areas for the top 17% and 50% priority thresholds would increase the average protected proportion of each tree species' range to 65.5% and 82.6%, respectively, leaving many fewer species (2,151 and 2,010) completely unprotected. The priority areas identified for trees match well to the Global 200 Ecoregions framework, revealing that priority areas for trees would in large part also optimize protection for terrestrial biodiversity overall. Based on range estimates for >46,000 tree species, our findings show that a large proportion of tree species receive limited protection by current PAs and are under substantial human pressure. Improved protection of biodiversity overall would also strongly benefit global tree diversity.

Global protected areas seem insufficient to safeguard half of the world's mammals from human-induced extinction

Protected areas are vital for conserving global biodiversity, but we lack information on the extent to which the current global protected area network is able to prevent local extinctions. Here we investigate this by assessing the potential size of individual populations of nearly 4,000 terrestrial mammals within protected areas. We find that many existing protected areas are too small or too poorly connected to provide robust and resilient protection for almost all mammal species that are threatened with extinction and for over 1,000 species that are not currently threatened. These results highlight that global biodiversity targets must reflect ecological realities by incorporating spatial structure and estimates of population viability, rather than relying simply on the total area of land protected.

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of global conservation and central to international plans to minimize global extinctions. During the coming century, global ecosystem destruction and fragmentation associated with increased human population and economic activity could make the long-term survival of most terrestrial vertebrates even more dependent on PAs. However, the capacity of the current global PA network to sustain species for the long term is unknown. Here, we explore this question for all nonvolant terrestrial mammals for which we found sufficient data, ∼4,000 species. We first estimate the potential population size of each such mammal species in each PA and then use three different criteria to estimate if solely the current global network of PAs might be sufficient for their long-term survival. Our analyses suggest that current PAs may fail to provide robust protection for about half the species analyzed, including most species currently listed as threatened with extinction and a third of species not currently listed as threatened. Hundreds of mammal species appear to have no viable protected populations. Underprotected species were found across all body sizes, taxonomic groups, and geographic regions. Large-bodied mammals, endemic species, and those in high-biodiversity tropical regions were particularly poorly protected by existing PAs. As new international biodiversity targets are formulated, our results suggest that the global network of PAs must be greatly expanded and most importantly that PAs must be located in diverse regions that encompass species not currently protected and must be large enough to ensure that protected species can persist for the long term.

Low level of anthropization linked to harsh vertebrate biodiversity declines in Amazonia

Assessing the impact of human activity on ecosystems often links local biodiversity to disturbances measured within the same locality. However, remote disturbances may also affect local biodiversity. Here, we used environmental DNA metabarcoding to evaluate the relationships between vertebrate biodiversity (fish and mammals) and disturbance intensity in two Amazonian rivers. Measurements of anthropic disturbance -here forest cover losses- were made from the immediate vicinity of the biodiversity sampling sites to up to 90 km upstream. The findings suggest that anthropization had a spatially extended impact on biodiversity. Forest cover losses of <11% in areas up to 30 km upstream from the biodiversity sampling sites were linked to reductions of >22% in taxonomic and functional richness of both terrestrial and aquatic fauna. This underscores the vulnerability of Amazonian biodiversity even to low anthropization levels. The similar responses of aquatic and terrestrial fauna to remote disturbances indicate the need for cross-ecosystem conservation plans that consider the spatially extended effects of anthropization.

It is unclear how far the impact of deforestation can spread. Here the authors analyse freshwater eDNA data along two rivers in the Amazon forest, and find that low levels of deforestation are linked to substantial reductions of fish and mammalian diversity downstream.

The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity

Ambitious conservation efforts are needed to stop the global biodiversity crisis. In this study, we estimate the minimum land area to secure important biodiversity areas, ecologically intact areas, and optimal locations for representation of species ranges and ecoregions. We discover that at least 64 million square kilometers (44% of terrestrial area) would require conservation attention (ranging from protected areas to land-use policies) to meet this goal. More than 1.8 billion people live on these lands, so responses that promote autonomy, self-determination, equity, and sustainable management for safeguarding biodiversity are essential. Spatially explicit land-use scenarios suggest that 1.3 million square kilometers of this land is at risk of being converted for intensive human land uses by 2030, which requires immediate attention. However, a sevenfold difference exists between the amount of habitat converted in optimistic and pessimistic land-use scenarios, highlighting an opportunity to avert this crisis. Appropriate targets in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework to encourage conservation of the identified land would contribute substantially to safeguarding biodiversity.

Gains in biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services from the expansion of the planet's protected areas

Protected areas safeguard biodiversity, ensure ecosystem functioning, and deliver ecosystem services to communities. However, only ~16% of the world's land area is under some form of protection, prompting international calls to protect at least 30% by 2030. We modeled the outcomes of achieving this 30 × 30 target for terrestrial biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and nutrient regulation. We find that the additional ~2.8 million ha of habitat that would be protected would benefit 1134 ± 175 vertebrate species whose habitats currently lack any form of protection, as well as contribute to either avoided carbon emissions or carbon dioxide sequestration, equivalent to 10.9 ± 3.6 GtCO₂ year^-1 (28.4 ± 9.4% of the global nature-based climate-change mitigation potential). Furthermore, expansion of the protected area network would increase its ability to regulate water quality and mitigate nutrient pollution by 142.5 ± 31.0 MtN year^-1 (28.5 ± 6.2% of the global nutrient regulation potential).

Promoting Biodiversity Conservation Requires a Better Understanding of the Relationships Between Ecosystem Services and Multiple Biodiversity Dimensions

In order to reverse the global trend of biodiversity loss, the concept of ecosystem services has been widely applied to make policymakers and the general public realize that conserving biodiversity possesses both intrinsic and utilitarian values. However, to achieve this goal, it is necessary to first have a clear understanding of the relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES). To advance our understanding of this issue, we first reviewed the major progress in current BES studies, with an emphasis on three biodiversity dimensions (i.e., taxonomic diversity, functional diversity, and ecosystem diversity). Based on the findings, we then propose three research topics as future directions: (1) More direct and explicit studies on the effects of different dimensions of biodiversity on various ecosystem service types; (2) developing a biodiversity-based understanding of the formation of ecosystem services; (3) creation of science-based ecosystem management plans and policies that can maximize synergies between biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service enhancement. By conducting such research, we will be able to not only further understand the complex relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services but also better promote the concept of ecosystem services for more successful biodiversity conservation in the future.

Integration of VIIRS Observations with GEDI-Lidar Measurements to Monitor Forest Structure Dynamics from 2013 to 2020 across the Conterminous United States

Consistent and spatially explicit periodic monitoring of forest structure is essential for estimating forest-related carbon emissions, analyzing forest degradation, and supporting sustainable forest management policies. To date, few products are available that allow for continental to global operational monitoring of changes in canopy structure. In this study, we explored the synergy between the NASA’s spaceborne Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) waveform LiDAR and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data to produce spatially explicit and consistent annual maps of canopy height (CH), percent canopy cover (PCC), plant area index (PAI), and foliage height diversity (FHD) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) at a 1-km resolution for 2013–2020. The accuracies of the annual maps were assessed using forest structure attribute derived from airborne laser scanning (ALS) data acquired between 2013 and 2020 for the 48 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) field sites distributed across the CONUS. The root mean square error (RMSE) values of the annual canopy height maps as compared with the ALS reference data varied from a minimum of 3.31-m for 2020 to a maximum of 4.19-m for 2017. Similarly, the RMSE values for PCC ranged between 8% (2020) and 11% (all other years). Qualitative evaluations of the annual maps using time series of very high-resolution images further suggested that the VIIRS-derived products could capture both large and “more” subtle changes in forest structure associated with partial harvesting, wind damage, wildfires, and other environmental stresses. The methods developed in this study are expected to enable multi-decadal analysis of forest structure and its dynamics using consistent satellite observations from moderate resolution sensors such as VIIRS onboard JPSS satellites.

Effectiveness of functional zones in National Nature Reserves for the protection of forest ecosystems in China

Protected areas (PAs) have been established worldwide to conserve biodiversity. However, the conservation effectiveness of different PA functional zones remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated National Nature Reserves (NNRs) in China to explore and quantify the conservation in their core, buffer, and experimental zones. We compared the area and proportion of forest loss for these functional zones during the period from 2001 to 2018. The results showed that the forest loss in NNRs showed a decreasing trend since 2011, indicating that NNRs reduced the forest loss. There was no significant difference of forest loss proportion (p = 0.42) between the core zones (0.60 ± 1.32%) and buffer zones (0.55 ± 0.88%), implying that their performance in forest conservation was similar. There was a significant difference between experimental and core zones as well as between experimental and buffer zones both in forest loss area and proportion (p ˂ 0.05). We confirmed that the proportion of functional zones significantly affects the conservation effectiveness, i.e., an improper proportion of core zones or buffer zones may lead to forest loss. Therefore, we suggest an optimal proportion of core and buffer zones at 30%-50% and 10%-40%, respectively. Overall, the effectiveness of functional zones in forest nature reserves was assessed on a national scale. The results of this study support the recent adjustment in the PA functional zoning system in China.

Increasing taxonomic diversity and spatial resolution clarifies opportunities for protecting US imperiled species

Continental- and regional-scale assessments of gaps in protected area networks typically use relatively coarse range maps for well documented species groups, creating uncertainty about the fate of unexamined biodiversity and providing insufficient guidance for land managers. By building habitat suitability models for a taxonomically diverse group of 2216 imperiled plants and animals, we revealed comprehensive and detailed protection opportunities in the conterminous United States. Summing protection-weighted range-size rarity (PWRSR, the product of the percent of modeled habitat outside of protected areas and the inverse of modeled habitat extent) uncovered novel patterns of biodiversity importance. Concentrations of unprotected imperiled species in places such as the northern Sierra Nevada, central and northern Arizona, the Rocky Mountains of Utah and Colorado, southeastern Texas, southwestern Arkansas, and Florida's Lake Wales Ridge have rarely if ever been featured in continental- and regional-scale analyses. Inclusion of diverse taxa (vertebrates, freshwater mussels, crayfishes, bumble bees, butterflies, skippers, and vascular plants) partially drove these new patterns. When analyses were restricted to groups typically included in previous studies (birds, mammals, and amphibians), up to 53% of imperiled species in other groups were left out. The finer resolution of modeled inputs (990 m) also resulted in a more geographically dispersed pattern. For example, 90% of the human population of the conterminous United States lives within 50 km of modeled habitat for one or more species with high PWRSR scores. Over one-half of the habitat for 818 species occurs within federally lands managed for biodiversity protection; an additional 360 species have over one-half of their modeled habitat on federal multiple use land. Freshwater animals occur in places with poorer landscape condition but with less exposure to climate change than other groups, suggesting that habitat restoration is an important conservation strategy for these species. The results provide fine-scale, taxonomically diverse inputs for local and regional priority-setting and show that although protection efforts are still widely needed on private lands, notable gains can be achieved by increasing protection status on selected federal lands.

Exploring adaptive approaches for social-ecological sustainability in the Belt and Road countries: From the perspective of ecological resource flow

The countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) are characterized by fragile ecosystems and underdevelopment economy. International trade usually transferred the eco-environmental negative impacts to developing countries. How to avoid the conflict between economic development and eco-environmental protection is the primary concern of building the Green Silk Road. To discover the adaptive strategies for ensuring the sustainability of the social-ecosystem in countries along the B&R, this study analyzes the supply-consumption relationship of ecological resources by simulating the flow of net primary productivity between the ecosystem and the social system. The results show that: (1) The flow of ecological resources between agricultural and husbandry systems have effectively alleviated the local ecological pressure caused by animal husbandry in countries along the B&R. Animal husbandry in developed countries economize the local ecological resources by importing feed, while mitigating the grazing pressure by utilizing the local crop residues in underdeveloped agricultural countries. (2) International trade not only enables countries with insufficient ecological resources to meet their demands by importing ecological products and thus alleviate ecosystem pressure, but also promotes countries with sufficient ecological resources to transform their resource advantages into economic advantages by exporting without at the expense of ecological sustainability. (3) For underdeveloped countries, the dependence of economic development on ecological resources is at the expense of the living demands of residents, only if the economy could have leap-forward improvement the allocation of ecological resources within the social system would be inclined to living demands. These adaptive approaches not only provide the evidences of ecological-social sustainable development by promoting the reasonable flow and allocation of ecological resources, but also imply the necessary assistance for the underdeveloped countries to guarantee the basic human well-being in economic development.

The external dependence of ecological products: Spatial-temporal features and future predictions

The instability of international trade can threaten the resource security of resource-importing countries, while international trade helps address spatial mismatches between regional populations, economies, and resources. Ecological products are the basis for human survival and development, in which agri-livestock products are especially sensitive to trade fluctuation and closely related to human well-being. The external dependence is an important indicator to reveal the external supply risk of regional resources. Scientific understanding the external dependence of ecological products can reveal the potential risks of trade fluctuations to human well-being and ecological sustainability. In this study, the global status and trend of countries' external dependence of agri-livestock ecological products are investigated. The results showed that nearly 80% (141) of countries relied on imports to meet ecological product demands in 2018, in which Asian-African-Latin countries accounted for about 78%, which indicated that the instability of international trade would threaten the ecological resource security in 80% of the world's countries, especially for underdeveloped countries. Even worse, 68% of countries are increasing their external dependence of ecological products. Even if the intensity of ecological resource exploitation reaches the maximum sustainable utilization level, 60% (113) of countries are expected to need imports for meeting their ecological product demands in 2050. Moreover, even considering the agricultural technological upgrade and the consumption transformation, more than 50% (94) of countries are still net importers of ecological products. Therefore, trade liberalization is still one of the important means to reduce resource security risks caused by trade instability. More notably, half of the countries in the world may sacrifice ecological sustainability to meet basic human well-being in the future under deglobalization.

Estimation of wetland biodiversity based on the hydrological patterns and connectivity and its potential application in change detection and monitoring: A case study of the Sanjiang Plain, China

A high biodiversity conservation value of a specific area generally indicates biodiversity priorities, making biodiversity conservation planning more reasonable. However, the spatial prioritization of biodiversity cannot easily indicate temporal changes because the data of many species are difficult to obtain in even a single period, let alone repeated surveys. Here, we show that the easily available wetland hydrological pattern and connectivity (HCP) variables are effective surrogates for the monitoring of biodiversity conservation value. We used the Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) method to evaluate the historical biodiversity conservation value (BCV), represented by Irreplaceability Index, by integrating the predicted spatial distribution of biodiversity features in 1995. We then calculated the wetland HPC indexes in randomly setup samples within a certain radius and analysed the correlation between the BCV and HPC indexes with a regression method. Finally, we further simulated the numerical and spatial changes of the BCV in different periods to illustrate its variation regularity. We found that the BCV considerably decreased in the study area. In conclusion, we confirmed that the wetland HPC indexes are significantly correlated with and can simulate the BCV indicator. We further identified the spatial locations of these degraded areas and proposed conservation and restoration scenarios for the study area. This study verified the impacts of HPC changes on wetland biodiversity caused by human-induced land use change; it also provides a reference for long-term assessment of wetland biodiversity change. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Among other abilities, effective biodiversity conservation should have the abilities to both prioritize the conservation value and detect its spatial changes. However, the assessment of biodiversity conservation value needs sufficient and high-quality species occurrence data and multi-period comparison. Here, we find that the relatively well accessible wetland hydrological pattern and connectivity indexes are effective surrogates for the change detection of wetland biodiversity conservation value. This means that wetland biodiversity conservation planners can monitor the biodiversity conservation situations without resource-consuming investigations to obtain species' occurrence data and repeated prioritization of the conservation value.

Strategic protection of landslide vulnerable mountains for biodiversity conservation under land-cover and climate change impacts

Landslides are triggered more often by human-induced changes, such as deforestation, infrastructure building, and increasing precipitation extremes, because of climate change. The huge economic and societal loss calls for a more cost-effective way to reduce risks and ensure sustainable development. Land-cover and land-use changes not only increase landslide susceptibility but also drive habitat loss and species extinctions. The high spatial overlap between landslide susceptibility and biodiversity in mountains provides an opportunity to achieve co-benefits in conservation and development. The identification of vulnerable mountains with both high biodiversity and landslide susceptibility prioritizes the regions for expansion of protected areas, forest conservation, and restoration, providing a nature-based solution to mitigate landslide risks through the protection of natural habitat.

Natural disasters impose huge uncertainty and loss to human lives and economic activities. Landslides are one disaster that has become more prevalent because of anthropogenic disturbances, such as land-cover changes, land degradation, and expansion of infrastructure. These are further exacerbated by more extreme precipitation due to climate change, which is predicted to trigger more landslides and threaten sustainable development in vulnerable regions. Although biodiversity conservation and development are often regarded as having a trade-off relationship, here we present a global analysis of the area with co-benefits, where conservation through expanding protection and reducing deforestation can not only benefit biodiversity but also reduce landslide risks to human society. High overlap exists between landslide susceptibility and areas of endemism for mammals, birds, and amphibians, which are mostly concentrated in mountain regions. We identified 247 mountain ranges as areas with high vulnerability, having both exceptional biodiversity and landslide risks, accounting for 25.8% of the global mountainous areas. Another 31 biodiverse mountains are classified as future vulnerable mountains as they face increasing landslide risks because of predicted climate change and deforestation. None of these 278 mountains reach the Aichi Target 11 of 17% coverage by protected areas. Of the 278 mountains, 52 need immediate actions because of high vulnerability, severe threats from future deforestation and precipitation extremes, low protection, and high-population density and anthropogenic activities. These actions include protected area expansion, forest conservation, and restoration where it could be a cost-effective way to reduce the risks of landslides.

Effects of land use change on population survival of three wild rice species in China since 2001

Land use change stemming from human activities, particularly cropland expansion, heavily threatens the survival of crop wild relatives that usually occur nearby or scatter in farming systems. Understanding the impacts of land use change on wild populations is critical in forming the conservation decision-making of wild relatives. Based on the investigations on the population survival of three wild rice species (Oryza rufipogon, O. officinalis, and O. granulata) in China over the past 40 years (1978-2019), the effect of land use change during the past 20 years (2001-2019) on the natural populations of the three species was examined using the land use type data of satellite-based Earth observations (data from GlobCover). From 1978 to 2019, the number of populations (distribution sites) of the three wild rice species had decreased by 65-87%, mainly because of the habitat destruction or disappearance caused by human-induced land use change. The three wild rice species display different habitat preferences, resulting in specific land use types surrounding their populations. In the recent 20 years, although the surrounding community composition of the wild rice population has been relatively stable, the surrounding vegetation cover area of the survived populations was significantly more extensive than that of the extinct ones (p < 0.05). These findings suggest that habitat vegetation plays a "biological barrier" role in the survival of wild populations through resisting or mitigating the disturbing impact of land use change on wild populations. This study provides not only direct guidelines for the conservation of wild rice but also new insights into the mechanisms underlying the influence of land use change on wild populations.

One-third of lands face high conflict risk between biodiversity conservation and human activities in China

Biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate, and conservation is needed in many places including human-dominated landscapes. Evaluation of conflict risk between biodiversity conservation and human activities is a prerequisite for countries to develop strategies to achieve better conservation outcomes. However, quantitative methods to measure the conflict risk in large-scale areas are still lacking. Here we put forward a quantitative model in large-scale areas and produce the first continuum map of conflict risk in China. Our results show that conflict risk hotspots take up 32.86 % of China's terrestrial area, which may affect 42.98 % of China's population and more than 98 % of threaten vertebrates. Although species richness is high in these hotspot regions, only 10.69 % of them are covered by protected areas. Therefore, alternative conservation measures and proactive spatial planning are needed, especially in regions along the coastlines and around the Sichuan Basin. Especially, extraordinary attentions should be paid to urban agglomerations such as the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta. Compared to previous studies, our study quantifies the conflict risk of every gird cell, enabling the comparison among any locations. The analysis of 500 times generations shows a low sensitivity of the model as the maximum standard deviation is only 0.017. Furthermore, our model can be applied in other countries or at global scale to provide strategies for conflict governance and biodiversity conservation.

Protecting Half the Planet and Transforming Human Systems Are Complementary Goals

The unfolding crises of mass extinction and climate change call for urgent action in response. To limit biodiversity losses and avert the worst effects of climate disruption, we must greatly expand nature protection while simultaneously downsizing and transforming human systems. The conservation initiative Nature Needs Half (or Half Earth), calling for the conservation of half the Earth's land and seas, is commensurate with the enormous challenges we face. Critics have objected to this initiative as harboring hardship for people near protected areas and for failing to confront the growth economy as the main engine of global ecological destruction. In response to the first criticism, we affirm that conservation policies must be designed and implemented in collaboration with Indigenous and local communities. In response to the second criticism, we argue that protecting half the Earth needs to be complemented by downscaling and reforming economic life, humanely and gradually reducing the global population, and changing food production and consumption. By protecting nature generously, and simultaneously contracting and transforming the human enterprise, we can create the conditions for achieving justice and well-being for both people and other species. If we fail to do so, we instead accept a chaotic and impoverished world that will be dangerous for us all.

Protecting Species by Promoting Protected Areas and Human Development—A Panel Analysis

We analyze a panel of 147 countries over a 21-year period. We used the Generalized Method of Moments First Differences panel estimation method and found that there is a statistically significant positive association between terrestrial protected areas and protected species. There is strong evidence of a positive statistical relationship between the Human Development Index and protected species under the condition of efficient nitrogen use as an instrumental variable. We support the revision of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis by claiming that in the 21st century it need not be strictly U-shaped, but that a rise in environmental protection measures is present across the board. The final contribution of the paper is the idea that protecting the habitat of endangered species is commensurate with increasing human welfare through income, health and education.

Mapping of biodiversity hubs and key ecosystem services as a tool for shaping optimal areas for conservation

Most National Parks (NP) and nature reserves in Rwanda have been established opportunistically in the early 1900s, without clear consideration of ensuring the protection to all threatened different taxonomical or functional groups, such as vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and birds. With the increasing conservation objectives, raised expectations into Protected Areas (PA), and within a more challenging environmental context, it is important to identify biodiversity hubs and key areas for Ecosystem Services (ES) to maximize the efficiency of conservation efforts by assisting priority areas under threats. To date, no comprehensive analysis, to the best of our knowledge has been done to assess both biodiversity and ES in Rwanda. This is a notable gap, considering that global-scale research suggests that the spatial overlap between biodiversity targets and ES is low. This study reports a nationwide assessment, mapping the richness of threatened species and three key ES Carbon Storage, Water Quantity, and Water Quality. Our analysis has shown that PAs are neither perfectly delineated to protect biodiversity nor key ES. The state of PAs offers a taxonomic protection bias in favor of mammals and birds but leaves many endangered species in other taxonomic groups in collapsing and unprotected small ecosystems scattered around the country. Rwanda’s PAs cover important carbon stock but can do better at securing higher water balance regions and clean water sources. We propose an improvement of the NP system in Rwanda to help guide the economic development along a path of green growth and ensures the well-being of both people and nature. Locating biodiversity hubs and key ES can help to connect conservationists, local people, and governments in order to better guide conservation actions.

Benefits Beyond Borders: Assessing Landowner Willingness-to-Accept Incentives for Conservation Outside Protected Areas

Unplanned land-use change surrounding protected areas (PAs) can lead to degradation and fragmentation of wildlife habitats, thereby placing tremendous pressure on PAs especially in tropical countries. Incentivizing the expansion of habitats beyond PAs will not only benefit wildlife but also has the potential to create livelihood opportunities for marginalized communities living adjacent to PAs. Our study explored landowners’ willingness to participate in an incentive-based, wildlife-friendly land-use program using a discrete choice modeling approach. We surveyed 699 landowners living in 287 villages within a five-kilometer buffer around Nagarahole and Bandipur National Parks in India. We found that landowners preferred wildlife-friendly land-use over their ongoing farming practices. Landowners preferred short-term programs, requiring enrolling smaller parcels of land for wildlife-friendly land-use, and offering higher payment amounts. Landowners with larger landholdings, a longer history of living next to the PA, and growing fewer commercial crops were more likely to prefer enrolling large parcels of land. Landowners who grew more commercial crops were likely to prefer long term programs. We also estimated the average monetary incentive to be INR 64,000 (US$ 914) per acre per year. Wildlife-friendly land use, in developing economies like India with shrinking wildlife habitats and expanding infrastructural developments, could supplement rural incomes and potentially expand habitat for wildlife, thereby being a promising conservation strategy.