Assessing the influence of landscape conservation and protected areas on social wellbeing using random forest machine learning

The urgency of interconnected social-ecological dilemmas such as rapid biodiversity loss, habitat loss and fragmentation, and the escalating climate crisis have led to increased calls for the protection of ecologically important areas of the planet. Protected areas (PA) are considered critical to address these dilemmas although growing divides in wellbeing can exacerbate conflict around PAs and undermine effectiveness. We investigate the influence of proximity to PAs on wellbeing outcomes. We develop a novel multi-dimensional index of wellbeing for households and across Africa and use Random Forest Machine Learning techniques to assess the importance score of households' proximity to protected areas on their wellbeing outcomes compared with the importance scores of an array of other social, environmental, and local and national governance factors. This study makes important contributions to the conservation literature, first by expanding the ways in which wellbeing is measured and operationalized, and second, by providing additional empirical support for recent evidence that proximity to PAs is an influential factor affecting observed wellbeing outcomes, albeit likely through different pathways than the current literature suggests.

Two decades of clear-cutting threats in the Brazilian Amazonian protected areas around the Jirau, Santo Antônio, and Belo Monte large dams

Deforestation rates in the Amazon have markedly increased in the last few years, affecting non-protected and protected areas (PAs). Brazil is a hotspot of Protected Area Downgrading, Downsizing, and Degazettement (PADDD) events, with most events associated with infrastructure projects. Despite the threats dams impose on PAs, there is a knowledge gap in assessing deforestation in PAs around large dams in the Amazon. This study investigates how deforestation affects Biodiversity Protection Areas (BioPAs) and Indigenous Lands around the Jirau and Santo Antônio (JSA) dams (Madeira River, Rondônia) and Belo Monte dam (Xingu River, Pará) in the Brazilian Amazon. We compared clear-cutting between PAs and control areas and the annual rates of forest change between pre-dam and post-dam periods. We discussed deforestation-related factors (e.g., PADDD events and the presence of management plans or councils). Our results show an increase in deforestation after the operation of the dams when environmental control from licensing agencies decreases and other political and economic factors are in practice. Indigenous Lands experienced a significant increase in deforestation around the Belo Monte dam, which is associated with the demarcation process and land conflicts. Surrounding the JSA dams, sustainable use BioPAs showed high deforestation rates, and 27 PADDD events were reported, four directly related to dams. In addition to dams, deforestation was associated with the crisis of Brazilian democracy and the weakening of environmental policies. In conclusion, the weak environmental control from environmental licensing agencies during dam operation and PADDD events have contributed to increased deforestation rates and additional stresses in the Amazon.

The positive impact of conservation action

Governments recently adopted new global targets to halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity. It is therefore crucial to understand the outcomes of conservation actions. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 186 studies (including 665 trials) that measured biodiversity over time and compared outcomes under conservation action with a suitable counterfactual of no action. We find that in two-thirds of cases, conservation either improved the state of biodiversity or at least slowed declines. Specifically, we find that interventions targeted at species and ecosystems, such as invasive species control, habitat loss reduction and restoration, protected areas, and sustainable management, are highly effective and have large effect sizes. This provides the strongest evidence to date that conservation actions are successful but require transformational scaling up to meet global targets.

Conservation planning for retention, not just protection

Most protected area (PA) planning aims to improve biota representation within the PA system, but this does not necessarily achieve the best outcomes for biota retention across regions when we also consider habitat loss in areas outside the PA system. Here, we assess the implications that different PA expansion strategies can have on the retention of species habitat across an entire region. Using retention of forest habitat for Colombia's 550 forest-dependent bird species as our outcome variable, we found that when a minimum of 30% of each species' habitat was included in the PA system, a pattern of PA expansion targeting areas at highest deforestation risk (risk-prevention) led to the retention, on average, of 7.2% more forest habitat per species by 2050 than did a pattern that targeted areas at lowest risk (risk-avoidance). The risk-prevention approach cost more per km2 of land conserved, but it was more cost-effective in retaining habitat in the landscape (50%-69% lower cost per km2 of avoided deforestation). To have the same effectiveness preventing habitat loss in Colombia, the risk-avoidance approach would require more than twice as much protected area, costing three times more in the process. Protected area expansion should focus on the contributions of PAs to outcomes not only within PA systems themselves, but across entire regions.

Pathways for achieving conservation targets under metacoupled anthropogenic disturbances

Enhancing connectivity between protected areas stands as a paramount objective in advancing global conservation goals, particularly in coastal regions grappling with escalating human disruptions. However, little attention has been given to quantitative assessment of human-nature interactions within and among protected areas. Here, we endeavored to model the connectivity between protected areas in rapidly urbanizing regions in China, drawing on insights from the framework of metacoupling based on connected corridors at short and long distances. In alignment with the overarching global conservation aim of increasing the overall coverage of protected areas, we found that adding new site to the protected area system yields superior connectivity gains compared to merely expanding the boundaries of the existing sites. Within the connectivity network between protected areas, we discerned specific sites acting as stepping stones, pivotal in enhancing connectivity among the chosen protected areas. Our study propounds a pragmatic methodology for prioritizing local protection initiatives and underscores the criticality of incorporating connectivity conservation strategies. This approach is vital for attaining regional biodiversity targets, given the dual perspective encompassing both human activities and the natural environment, particularly in the face of mounting anthropogenic disturbances.

Review of terrestrial temporarily conserved areas in Canada, the United States, and Mexico

The establishment of protected areas is a cornerstone of conservation, but permanent protection could be inefficient or even impossible in some situations. We synthesized the literature on temporarily conserved areas (TCAs) across Canada, the United States, and Mexico. We used a comprehensive search string to retrieve peer-reviewed articles published from 2000 to 2021 from the Web of Science. We identified 27 relevant peer-reviewed articles that examined the potential benefits of TCAs in the study area, indicating TCA is a relatively understudied area of research in the peer-reviewed literature. The TCA studies were highly clustered; 77% of studies focused on protecting a single life stage of migratory species and 61% of studies related to temporary conservation of breeding or staging habitats for migratory birds. Ninety-three percent of studies focused on preventing human-driven threats, mainly on public lands of coastal areas, the Great Plains, and the Mississippi Valley in the central United States. Short-term and experimental studies were the dominant study types. TCAs have the potential to complement permanently protected areas and provide protection when permanent protection is difficult. Some included studies examined their conservation value, but the ecological, social, and economic outcomes of TCAs are unclear. More TCA research is needed to determine the role they could play in conservation worldwide. Embracing the concept of TCAs as conservation tool could lead to more comprehensive and consistent reporting of the outcomes of temporary area-based conservation measures. However, a global review and analysis of effectiveness of TCAs will be required if they are to play a formal role in meeting international targets for biodiversity conservation.

Climate co-benefits of tiger conservation

Biodiversity conservation is increasingly being recognized as an important co-benefit in climate change mitigation programmes that use nature-based climate solutions. However, the climate co-benefits of biodiversity conservation interventions, such as habitat protection and restoration, remain understudied. Here we estimate the forest carbon storage co-benefits of a national policy intervention for tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation in India. We used a synthetic control approach to model avoided forest loss and associated carbon emissions reductions in protected areas that underwent enhanced protection for tiger conservation. Over a third of the analysed reserves showed significant but mixed effects, where 24% of all reserves successfully reduced the rate of deforestation and the remaining 9% reported higher-than-expected forest loss. The policy had a net positive benefit with over 5,802 hectares of averted forest loss, corresponding to avoided emissions of 1.08 ± 0.51 MtCO2 equivalent between 2007 and 2020. This translated to US$92.55 ± 43.56 million in ecosystem services from the avoided social cost of emissions and potential revenue of US$6.24 ± 2.94 million in carbon offsets. Our findings offer an approach to quantitatively track the carbon sequestration co-benefits of a species conservation strategy and thus help align the objectives of climate action and biodiversity conservation.

The role of nature reserves in conservation effectiveness of ecosystem services in China

Establishing nature reserves (NRs) is a common method to avoid biodiversity loss and degradation of ecosystem services (ESs). The evaluation of ESs in NRs and the exploration of associated influencing factors are the basis for improving ESs and management. However, the ES effectiveness of NRs over time remains questionable, namely due to the heterogeneity of landscape characteristics inside and outside of NRs. This study (i) quantifies the role of 75 NRs in China in maintaining ESs (i.e., net primary production (NPP), soil conservation, sandstorm prevention and water yield) from 2000 to 2020, (ii) reveals the trade-offs/synergies, and (iii) identifies the main influencing factors of the ES effectiveness of NRs. The results show that more than 80% of NRs had positive ES effectiveness, which was greater in older NRs. For different ESs, effectiveness over time increases for NPP (E_NPP), soil conservation (E_SC) and sandstorm prevention (E_SP) but declines for water yield (E_WY). There is a clear synergistic relationship between E_NPP and E_SC. Moreover, the effectiveness of ESs is closely correlated with elevation, precipitation, and perimeter area ratio. Our findings can provide important information to support site selection and management of reserves to improve the delivery of critical ecosystem services.

Gaps and weaknesses in the global protected area network for safeguarding at-risk species

Protected areas are essential to biodiversity conservation. Creating new parks can protect larger populations and more species, yet strengthening existing parks, particularly those vulnerable to harmful human activities, is a critical but underappreciated step for safeguarding at-risk species. Here, we model the area of habitat that terrestrial mammals, amphibians, and birds have within park networks and their vulnerability to current downgrading, downsizing, or degazettement events and future land-use change. We find that roughly 70% of species analyzed have scant representation in parks, or occur within parks that are affected by shifts in formal legal protections or are vulnerable to increased human pressures. Our results also show that expanding and strengthening park networks across just 1% of the world's land area could preserve irreplaceable habitats of 1191 species that are particularly vulnerable to extinction.

Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities, and habitat loss, many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, and society and develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C and effectively conserving and restoring functional ecosystems on 30 to 50% of land, freshwater, and ocean "scapes." We envision a mosaic of interconnected protected and shared spaces, including intensively used spaces, to strengthen self-sustaining biodiversity, the capacity of people and nature to adapt to and mitigate climate change, and nature's contributions to people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, and planetary health for a livable future urgently requires bold implementation of transformative policy interventions through interconnected institutions, governance, and social systems from local to global levels.

Madagascar’s extraordinary biodiversity: Threats and opportunities

Madagascar’s unique biota is heavily affected by human activity and is under intense threat. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the conservation status of Madagascar’s terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by presenting data and analyses on documented and predicted species-level conservation statuses, the most prevalent and relevant threats, ex situ collections and programs, and the coverage and comprehensiveness of protected areas. The existing terrestrial protected area network in Madagascar covers 10.4% of its land area and includes at least part of the range of the majority of described native species of vertebrates with known distributions (97.1% of freshwater fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals combined) and plants (67.7%). The overall figures are higher for threatened species (97.7% of threatened vertebrates and 79.6% of threatened plants occurring within at least one protected area). International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments and Bayesian neural network analyses for plants identify overexploitation of biological resources and unsustainable agriculture as the most prominent threats to biodiversity. We highlight five opportunities for action at multiple levels to ensure that conservation and ecological restoration objectives, programs, and activities take account of complex underlying and interacting factors and produce tangible benefits for the biodiversity and people of Madagascar.

Indigenous lands in protected areas have high forest integrity across the tropics

Intact tropical forests have a high conservation value.¹ Although perceived as wild,² they have been under long-term human influence.³ As global area-based conservation targets increase, the ecological contributions of Indigenous peoples through their governance institutions and practices⁴ are gaining mainstream interest. Indigenous lands-covering a quarter of Earth's surface⁵ and overlapping with a third of intact forests⁶-often have reduced deforestation, degradation, and carbon emissions, compared with non-protected areas and protected areas.^7,8 A key question with implications for the design of more equitable and effective conservation policies is to understand the impacts of Indigenous lands on forest integrity and long-term use, as critical measures of ecosystem health included within the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.⁹ Using the forest landscape integrity index¹⁰ and Anthromes¹¹ datasets, we find that high-integrity forests tend to be located within the overlap of protected areas and Indigenous lands (protected-Indigenous areas). After accounting for location biases through statistical matching and regression, protected-Indigenous areas had the highest protective effect on forest integrity and the lowest land-use intensity relative to Indigenous lands, protected areas, and non-protected controls pan-tropically. The protective effect of Indigenous lands on forest integrity was lower in Indigenous lands than in protected areas and non-protected areas in the Americas and Asia. The combined positive effects of state legislation and Indigenous presence in protected-Indigenous areas may contribute to maintaining tropical forest integrity. Understanding management and governance in protected-Indigenous areas can help states to appropriately support community-governed lands.

Quasi-experimental analysis of new mining developments as a driver of deforestation in Zambia

Mining is a vital part of the global, and many national, economies. Mining also has the potential to drive extensive land cover change, including deforestation, with impacts reaching far from the mine itself. Understanding the amount of deforestation associated with mining is important for conservationists, governments, mining companies, and consumers, yet accurate quantification is rare. We applied statistical matching, a quasi-experimental methodology, along with Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear models to assess the impact on deforestation of new mining developments in Zambia from 2000 to present. Zambia is a globally significant producer of minerals and mining contributes ~ 10% of its gross domestic product and ~ 77% of its exports. Despite extensive deforestation in mining impacted land, we found no evidence that any of the 22 mines we analysed increased deforestation compared with matched control sites. The extent forest lost was therefore no different than would likely have happened without the mines being present due to other drivers of deforestation in Zambia. This suggests previous assessments based on correlative methodologies may overestimate the deforestation impact of mining. However, mining can have a range of impacts on society, biodiversity, and the local environment that are not captured by our analysis.

A mobile application to protect groundwater during unconventional oil and gas extraction

Unconventional oil and gas (UOG) is an important energy source for many countries, but requires large quantities of water for its development, and may pollute water resources. Regulations are one of the main tools to achieve government policy on natural resource protection. South Africa, which is energy-constrained, but also water-scarce, is currently considering UOG extraction as an additional energy resource. UOG development could commence as soon as regulations to protect natural resources such as water have been published. Such regulations are, however, often not effectively enforced, which negatively affects the protection of water resources during UOG extraction. This study addresses these enforcement challenges in South Africa. It focuses on the science-society-policy interface by proposing a civic informatics platform to assist with on-the-ground enforcement of regulations via a mobile application. This mobile application aims to address both groundwater monitoring and management as well as UOG extraction operations in a single platform, to enable regulators to protect groundwater resources more effectively during UOG extraction, while simultaneously enhancing transparency in the UOG industry.

Global protected areas seem insufficient to safeguard half of the world's mammals from human-induced extinction

Protected areas are vital for conserving global biodiversity, but we lack information on the extent to which the current global protected area network is able to prevent local extinctions. Here we investigate this by assessing the potential size of individual populations of nearly 4,000 terrestrial mammals within protected areas. We find that many existing protected areas are too small or too poorly connected to provide robust and resilient protection for almost all mammal species that are threatened with extinction and for over 1,000 species that are not currently threatened. These results highlight that global biodiversity targets must reflect ecological realities by incorporating spatial structure and estimates of population viability, rather than relying simply on the total area of land protected.

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of global conservation and central to international plans to minimize global extinctions. During the coming century, global ecosystem destruction and fragmentation associated with increased human population and economic activity could make the long-term survival of most terrestrial vertebrates even more dependent on PAs. However, the capacity of the current global PA network to sustain species for the long term is unknown. Here, we explore this question for all nonvolant terrestrial mammals for which we found sufficient data, ∼4,000 species. We first estimate the potential population size of each such mammal species in each PA and then use three different criteria to estimate if solely the current global network of PAs might be sufficient for their long-term survival. Our analyses suggest that current PAs may fail to provide robust protection for about half the species analyzed, including most species currently listed as threatened with extinction and a third of species not currently listed as threatened. Hundreds of mammal species appear to have no viable protected populations. Underprotected species were found across all body sizes, taxonomic groups, and geographic regions. Large-bodied mammals, endemic species, and those in high-biodiversity tropical regions were particularly poorly protected by existing PAs. As new international biodiversity targets are formulated, our results suggest that the global network of PAs must be greatly expanded and most importantly that PAs must be located in diverse regions that encompass species not currently protected and must be large enough to ensure that protected species can persist for the long term.

Global impacts of future urban expansion on terrestrial vertebrate diversity

Rapid urban expansion has profound impacts on global biodiversity through habitat conversion, degradation, fragmentation, and species extinction. However, how future urban expansion will affect global biodiversity needs to be better understood. We contribute to filling this knowledge gap by combining spatially explicit projections of urban expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with datasets on habitat and terrestrial biodiversity (amphibians, mammals, and birds). Overall, future urban expansion will lead to 11–33 million hectares of natural habitat loss by 2100 under the SSP scenarios and will disproportionately cause large natural habitat fragmentation. The urban expansion within the current key biodiversity priority areas is projected to be higher (e.g., 37–44% higher in the WWF’s Global 200) than the global average. Moreover, the urban land conversion will reduce local within-site species richness by 34% and species abundance by 52% per 1 km grid cell, and 7–9 species may be lost per 10 km cell. Our study suggests an urgent need to develop a sustainable urban development pathway to balance urban expansion and biodiversity conservation.

Population growth in the coming decades will lead to increasing land conversion to urban areas. Here, the authors use spatially explicit projections of global urban expansion to analyze its effects on habitat changes, and terrestrial mammals, birds and amphibians under the main shared socioeconomic pathways.

Conservation opportunities and challenges in Brazil's roadless and railroad-less areas

Policy and legislation rarely acknowledge the importance of keeping intact ecosystems road- and railroad-free. By modeling Brazil's remaining roadless and railroad-less (RLRL) areas, we found that, although they hold the vast majority of the country's remaining native vegetation (81.5%), because of their limited protection status, only 38% of Brazil's remaining native vegetation is both protected and in RLRL areas. Current federal policy aims to develop transportation infrastructure designed with antiquated planning methods that threaten remaining intact ecosystems, while concurrently weakening the country's hallmark environmental protections and commitments. Where Brazil builds its new roads and railroads matters for conservation planning. The occurrence of native vegetation and anthropic land use is associated, at varying degrees, to transportation infrastructure throughout most of Brazil. We highlight that by pursuing conservation opportunities in RLRL areas, Brazil could instead make impactful steps for conservation, restoration planning, and tangible progress toward achieving national and international environmental and conservation commitments.

Predicted wind and solar energy expansion has minimal overlap with multiple conservation priorities across global regions

Protected areas and renewable energy generation are critical tools to combat biodiversity loss and climate change, respectively. Over the coming decades, expansion of the protected area network to meet conservation objectives will be occurring alongside rapid deployment of renewable energy infrastructure to meet climate targets, driving potential conflict for a finite land resource. Renewable energy infrastructure can have negative effects on wildlife, and co-occurrence may mean emissions targets are met at the expense of conservation objectives. Here, we assess current and projected overlaps of wind and solar photovoltaic installations and important conservation areas across nine global regions using spatially explicit wind and solar data and methods for predicting future renewable expansion. We show similar levels of co-occurrence as previous studies but demonstrate that once area is accounted for, previous concerns about overlaps in the Northern Hemisphere may be largely unfounded, although they are high in some biodiverse countries (e.g., Brazil). Future projections of overlap between the two land uses presented here are generally dependent on priority threshold and region and suggest the risk of future conflict can be low. We use the best available data on protected area degradation to corroborate this level of risk. Together, our findings indicate that while conflicts between renewables and protected areas inevitably do occur, renewables represent an important option for decarbonization of the energy sector that would not significantly affect area-based conservation targets if deployed with appropriate policy and regulatory controls.

Does leakage exist in China's typical protected areas? Evidence from 13 national nature reserves

There is profound interest in knowing the degree to which the effectiveness of China's nature reserves, and whether leakage is common around the reserves, in the face of the most drastic conflicts between conservation and development in the world. To answer these questions, we employed the Landsat-derived Global Forest Change Dataset with 30-m resolution to examine forest change patterns during 2001 and 2017 both inside and outside of 13 typically national nature reserves in China. The average forest loss rates inside the reserves were significantly lower than those of outside the reserves (i.e., both in buffer and landscape zones), suggesting the success in protecting forest of these reserves in China. We found that the protection practice reduced approximately 10% of deforestation. Protection efficiency may be substantially overestimated (about 13-43%) if failing to control the related variables, such as altitude, climate, and human interference. The forest loss rates in the buffer zones were not significantly higher than those in the broader landscape zones, suggesting that leakage is not a frequent occurrence in the buffer zones of the reserves. However, the forest loss rates showed a slightly increasing tendency from 2001 to 2017, the loss rates increased gradually from inside to their outside buffer zones, and leakage was observed in certain zones of some years for most of the reserves. The conversions of forest to grassland and cultivated land were the primary trajectories of forest loss both inside and outside of the reserves. Though the leakage is not universal in the reserves across the country, forest loss rates are much higher in the buffer zones than those inside the reserves, resulting in increased insulation of the reserves that could undermine the provisioning of ecosystem services and the biodiversity conservation efficiency.

Risks to global biodiversity and Indigenous lands from China's overseas development finance

China has become one of the world's largest lenders in overseas development finance. Development projects, such as roads, railways and power plants, often drive biodiversity loss and infringe on Indigenous lands, yet the risks implicit in China's overseas development finance are poorly understood. Here we examine the extent to which projects financed by China's policy banks between 2008 and 2019 occur within and adjacent to areas where large-scale investment can present considerable risks to biodiversity and Indigenous peoples. Further, we compare these risks with those posed by similar projects financed by the World Bank, previously the world's largest source of development finance. We found that 63% of China-financed projects overlap with critical habitats, protected areas or Indigenous lands, with up to 24% of the world's threatened birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians potentially impacted by the projects. Hotspots of the risks are primarily distributed in northern sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and parts of South America. Overall, China's development projects pose greater risks than those of the World Bank, particularly within the energy sector. These results provide an important global outlook of socio-ecological risks that can guide strategies for greening China's development finance around the world.

Protecting Species by Promoting Protected Areas and Human Development—A Panel Analysis

We analyze a panel of 147 countries over a 21-year period. We used the Generalized Method of Moments First Differences panel estimation method and found that there is a statistically significant positive association between terrestrial protected areas and protected species. There is strong evidence of a positive statistical relationship between the Human Development Index and protected species under the condition of efficient nitrogen use as an instrumental variable. We support the revision of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis by claiming that in the 21st century it need not be strictly U-shaped, but that a rise in environmental protection measures is present across the board. The final contribution of the paper is the idea that protecting the habitat of endangered species is commensurate with increasing human welfare through income, health and education.

Early warning sign of forest loss in protected areas

As humanity is facing the double challenge of species extinctions and climate change, designating parts of forests as protected areas is a key conservation strategy.^1-4 Protected areas, encompassing 14.9% of the Earth's land surface and 19% of global forests, can prevent forest loss but do not do so perfectly everywhere.^5-12 The reasons why protection only works in some areas are difficult to generalize: older and newer parks, protected areas with higher and lower suitability for agriculture, and more and less strict protection can be more effective at preventing forest loss than their counterparts.^6,8,9,12-16 Yet predicting future forest loss within protected areas is crucial to proactive conservation. Here, we identify an early warning sign of subsequent forest loss, based on forest loss patterns in strict protected areas and their surrounding landscape worldwide, from 2000 to 2018.^17,18 We found that a low level in the absolute forest cover immediately outside of a protected area signals a high risk of future forest loss inside the protected area itself. When the amount of forest left outside drops to <20%, the protected area is likely to experience rates of forest loss matching those in the wider landscape, regardless of its protection status (e.g., 5% loss outside will be matched by 5% loss inside). This knowledge could be used to direct funding to protected areas threatened by imminent forest loss, helping to proactively bolster protection to prevent forest loss, especially in countries where detailed information is lacking.

The role of protected areas in maintaining natural vegetation in Brazil

The destruction of natural vegetation in recent decades has been concentrated in the tropics, where ecosystem processes underpin global homeostasis and harbor most of the world’s biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are the primary societal tool to avoid this destruction, yet their effectiveness is often questioned. Here, we quantified the impact of PAs and indigenous lands in avoiding 34 years of vegetation destruction in forested and nonforested biomes in Brazil. We showed that the odds of destruction in the PA network are four times lower than in unprotected areas, and generally, this positive effect extends to a buffer zone around PAs. Among the most effective groups of PAs are those that are older, larger, located in the Amazonian region, and indigenous lands. Despite recent setbacks for the Brazilian PA system, we highlight the benefits of PAs for biodiversity and climate if they were instead strengthened.

Evaluating the social and ecological effectiveness of partially protected marine areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a primary tool for the stewardship, conservation, and restoration of marine ecosystems, yet 69% of global MPAs are only partially protected (i.e., are open to some form of fishing). Although fully protected areas have well-documented outcomes, including increased fish diversity and biomass, the effectiveness of partially protected areas is contested. Partially protected areas may provide benefits in some contexts and may be warranted for social reasons, yet social outcomes often depend on MPAs achieving their ecological goals to distinguish them from open areas and justify the cost of protection. We assessed the social perceptions and ecological effectiveness of 18 partially protected areas and 19 fully protected areas compared with 19 open areas along 7000 km of coast of southern Australia. We used mixed methods, gathering data via semistructured interviews, site surveys, and Reef Life (underwater visual census) surveys. We analyzed qualitative data in accordance with grounded theory and quantitative data with multivariate and univariate linear mixed-effects models. We found no social or ecological benefits for partially protected areas relative to open areas in our study. Partially protected areas had no more fish, invertebrates, or algae than open areas; were poorly understood by coastal users; were not more attractive than open areas; and were not perceived to have better marine life than open areas. These findings provide an important counterpoint to some large-scale meta-analyses that conclude partially protected areas can be ecologically effective but that draw this conclusion based on narrower measures. We argue that partially protected areas act as red herrings in marine conservation because they create an illusion of protection and consume scarce conservation resources yet provide little or no social or ecological gain over open areas. Fully protected areas, by contrast, have more fish species and biomass and are well understood, supported, and valued by the public. They are perceived to have better marine life and be improving over time in keeping with actual ecological results. Conservation outcomes can be improved by upgrading partially protected areas to higher levels of protection including conversion to fully protected areas.

Coordinated intensification to reconcile the 'zero hunger' and 'life on land' Sustainable Development Goals

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encourage nations to substantially increase food production to achieve zero hunger (SDG 2) while preserving life on land (SDG 15). A key question is how to reconcile these potentially competing goals spatially. We use integer linear programming to develop an 'integrated land use planning framework' that identifies the optimal allocation of 17 crops under different hypothetical conservation targets while meeting agricultural demands by 2030. Intensifying existing cropland to maximum yield before allocating new cropland would reduce land requirement by 43% versus cropland expansion without intensification. Even with yield gap closure, tropical and sub-tropical crops still require expansion, primarily allocated to Venezuela, eastern Brazil, Congo Basin, Myanmar and Indonesia. Enforcement of protected areas, via avoiding conversion in 75% of Key Biodiversity Areas and 65% of intact areas, is vital to attain biodiversity targets but bears large opportunity costs, with agricultural rents dropping from $4.1 to $2.8 trillion. Although nationally constrained forest conservation efforts would earn 9% less agricultural rents compared to globally coordinated conservation solutions, they were also able to reduce intact habitat and forest loss (43% and 35% reduction). Our results demonstrate that careful choice of the allocation of future cropland expansion, could dramatically reduce-but not eliminate-the tradeoffs between the SDGs for food production and land biodiversity conservation.

Global assessment of forest quality for threatened terrestrial vertebrate species in need of conservation translocation programs

Conservation actions such as habitat protection, restoration, and translocations are critical actions in preventing further extinctions of threatened species. We used the 152 threatened species on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s Red List with conservation translocations as a recommended conservation action to access the habitat quality of these species’ ranges. We determined where multi-species conservation translocation and forest restoration efforts can be concentrated. To determine the habitat quality of species’ ranges, we assessed forest cover, forest restoration potential, protected area status, and invasive species concerns. Forty-four percent (67 species) of species with translocations recommended have part of their range in a protected area, existing forest cover, and currently no invasive species risk. However, the majority (85 species) currently need habitat management (63 species), invasive species control (71 species), or protection (34 species). We also identified key differences between species recommended for reintroductions (115 species) and benign introductions (37 species), such as the percentage of a species’ range within a protected area, in which reintroductions (median = 7.4%) had more than benign introductions (median = 0.9%). Mauritius, central Africa, eastern Australia and Himalaya regions each have areas with range overlap of three or more species recommended for translocations and forest restoration potential. For those species with CT programs in place, mean forest cover was 32% and restoration potential was 16%, suggesting potential minimum habitat requirements for initial releases. Results provide a global perspective on reintroduction and translocation needs of threatened species with evidenced-based information on habitat quality, i.e. forest restoration potential, forest cover, protected areas, and invasive species control, to aid conservation translocation scientists and ultimately improve the success of such projects.

Ensuring effective implementation of the post-2020 global biodiversity targets

Biodiversity underpins the fundamental elements for human well-being including food security, human health and access to clean water. In 2010, the Aichi Targets were adopted by world leaders to address the crisis of biodiversity loss. Despite conservation efforts, none of the Aichi Targets have been fully met. However, comprehensive analysis of the reasons for failure in terms of implementation mechanisms is, to date, rare and limited in scope. Here, we demonstrate that most parties did not set effective national targets in accordance with the Aichi Targets, and investments, knowledge and accountability for biodiversity conservation have been inadequate to enable effective implementation. We recommend that the new global targets under the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework should be adopted by parties as the minimum national targets to achieve the 2050 Vision. We propose that financial resources for biodiversity conservation are substantially increased through a variety of sources, including the deployment of new economic instruments such as payments for ecosystem services. In addition, science-policy interfaces at all levels need to be strengthened to integrate scientific, Indigenous and local knowledge to support decision-making. We suggest that a compliance and accountability mechanism, based on monitoring systems, is created to provide transparent and credible review of parties' implementation of the new global targets.

Global Analysis of Durable Policies for Free-Flowing River Protections

Freshwater ecosystems are poorly represented in global networks of protected areas. This situation underscores an urgent need for the creation, application, and expansion of durable (long-term and enforceable) protection mechanisms for free-flowing rivers that go beyond conventional protected area planning. To address this need, we must first understand where and what types of protections exist that explicitly maintain the free-flowing integrity of rivers, as well as the efficacy of such policy types. Through policy analysis and an in-depth literature review, our study identifies three main policy mechanisms used for such protections: (1) River Conservation Systems; (2) Executive Decrees and Laws; and (3) Rights of Rivers. We found that globally only eight counties have national river conservation systems while seven countries have used executive decrees and similar policies to halt dam construction, and Rights of Rivers movements are quickly growing in importance, relative to other protection types. Despite the current extent of protection policies being insufficient to tackle the freshwater and biodiversity crises facing the world’s rivers, they do provide useful frameworks to guide the creation and expansion of protections. Ultimately, as countries act on global calls for protections, policy mechanisms must be tailored to their individual social and ecological geographies.

Contribution of Vouacapoua americana fruit-fall to the release of biomass in a lowland Amazon forest

Fruit-fall provides the transfer of biomass and nutrients between forest strata and remains a poorly understood component of Amazon forest systems. Here we detail fruit-fall patterns including those of Vouacapoua americana a Critically Endangered timber species across 25 km² of lowland Amazon forest in 2016. We use multi-model comparisons and an ensemble model to explain and interpolate fruit-fall data collected in 90 plots (totaling 4.42 ha). By comparing patterns in relation to observed and remotely sensed biomass estimates we establish the seasonal contribution of V. americana fruit-fall biomass. Overall fruit-fall biomass was 44.84 kg ha⁻¹ month⁻¹ from an average of 44.55 species per hectare, with V. americana dominating both the number and biomass of fallen fruits (43% and 64%, number and biomass respectively). Spatially explicit interpolations provided an estimate of 114 Mg dry biomass of V. americana fruit-fall across the 25 km² area. This quantity represents the rapid transfer by a single species of between 0.01 and 0.02% of the overall above ground standing biomass in the area. These findings support calls for a more detailed understanding of the contribution of individual species to carbon and nutrient flows in tropical forest systems needed to evaluate the impacts of population declines predicted from short (< 65 year) logging cycles.

Assessing Tradeoffs between Development and Conservation: A Case of Land Use Change in a National Park of Korea

Protected areas are places that provide diverse ecosystem services, including cultural ecosystem services. At the same time, the development and unbalanced use of natural resources in protected areas often create environmental threats and social conflicts. This study estimates the economic value of environmental consequences derived from the construction of an airport in a national park in Korea. We employ a discrete choice experiment to assess economic values and consider a key part of the tradeoffs derived from the airport construction at Heuksan Island of Dadohae Marine National Park in Korea. The results show that social benefits related to improved accessibility and tourism opportunities would be generated but at substantial costs resulting from environmental degradation and the reduction in bird populations. A segmentation analysis also reveals that heterogeneous preferences exist based on variables reflecting individuals’ visit experiences and trust in the government. The findings indicate that considering environmental impacts is important when evaluating the feasibility of a development project in a protected area.

Perspectives on area-based conservation and its meaning for future biodiversity policy

During 2021, Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) are expected to meet in Kunming, China, to agree on a new global biodiversity framework aimed at halting and reversing biodiversity loss, encouraging the sustainable use of biodiversity, and ensuring the equitable sharing of its benefits. As the post-2020 global biodiversity framework evolves, parties to the convention are being exposed to a range of perspectives on the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, relating to the future framework as a whole or to aspects of it. Area-based conservation measures are one such aspect, and there are diverse perspectives on how new targets might be framed in relation to these measures. These perspectives represent different outlooks on the relationship between human and nonhuman life on Earth. However, in most cases there is a lack of clarity on how they would be implemented in practice, the implications this would have for biodiversity and human well-being, and how they would contribute to achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity of "living in harmony with nature." We sought to clarify these issues by summarizing some of these perspectives in relation to the future of area-based biodiversity conservation. We identified these perspectives through a review of the literature and expert consultation workshops and compiled them into 4 main groups: Aichi+, ambitious area-based conservation perspectives, new conservation, and whole-earth conservation. We found that although the perspectives Aichi+ and whole earth are in some cases at odds with one another, they also have commonalities, and all perspectives have elements that can contribute to developing and implementing the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and achieving the longer term CBD 2050 Vision.

Forest-linked livelihoods in a globalized world

Forests have re-taken centre stage in global conversations about sustainability, climate and biodiversity. Here, we use a horizon scanning approach to identify five large-scale trends that are likely to have substantial medium- and long-term effects on forests and forest livelihoods: forest megadisturbances; changing rural demographics; the rise of the middle-class in low- and middle-income countries; increased availability, access and use of digital technologies; and large-scale infrastructure development. These trends represent human and environmental processes that are exceptionally large in geographical extent and magnitude, and difficult to reverse. They are creating new agricultural and urban frontiers, changing existing rural landscapes and practices, opening spaces for novel conservation priorities and facilitating an unprecedented development of monitoring and evaluation platforms that can be used by local communities, civil society organizations, governments and international donors. Understanding these larger-scale dynamics is key to support not only the critical role of forests in meeting livelihood aspirations locally, but also a range of other sustainability challenges more globally. We argue that a better understanding of these trends and the identification of levers for change requires that the research community not only continue to build on case studies that have dominated research efforts so far, but place a greater emphasis on causality and causal mechanisms, and generate a deeper understanding of how local, national and international geographical scales interact.

Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation

Whereas the conservation and management of biodiversity has become a key issue in environmental sciences and policy in general, the conservation of marine biodiversity faces additional challenges such as the challenges of accessing field sites (e.g. polar, deep sea), knowledge gaps regarding biodiversity trends, high mobility of many organisms in fluid environments, and ecosystem-specific obstacles to stakeholder engagement and governance. This issue comprises contributions from a diverse international group of scientists in a benchmarking volume for a common research agenda on marine conservation. We begin by addressing information gaps on marine biodiversity trends through novel approaches and technologies, then linking such information to ecosystem functioning through a focus on traits. We then leverage the knowledge of these relationships to inform theory aiming at predicting the future composition and functioning of marine communities. Finally, we elucidate the linkages between marine ecosystems and human societies by examining economic, management and governance approaches that contribute to effective marine conservation in practice. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Area-based conservation in the twenty-first century

Humanity will soon define a new era for nature-one that seeks to transform decades of underwhelming responses to the global biodiversity crisis. Area-based conservation efforts, which include both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, are likely to extend and diversify. However, persistent shortfalls in ecological representation and management effectiveness diminish the potential role of area-based conservation in stemming biodiversity loss. Here we show how the expansion of protected areas by national governments since 2010 has had limited success in increasing the coverage across different elements of biodiversity (ecoregions, 12,056 threatened species, 'Key Biodiversity Areas' and wilderness areas) and ecosystem services (productive fisheries, and carbon services on land and sea). To be more successful after 2020, area-based conservation must contribute more effectively to meeting global biodiversity goals-ranging from preventing extinctions to retaining the most-intact ecosystems-and must better collaborate with the many Indigenous peoples, community groups and private initiatives that are central to the successful conservation of biodiversity. The long-term success of area-based conservation requires parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity to secure adequate financing, plan for climate change and make biodiversity conservation a far stronger part of land, water and sea management policies.