Gender bias in under-five mortality in low/middle-income countries

Es Niño o Niña?: Gender Differences in Feeding Practices and Obesity Risk among Latino Infants

Background

Obesity prevalence is significantly higher among Latino boys than girls. Weight status at 12 mo, a significant predictor of childhood obesity, is associated with feeding practices during infancy.

Objectives

The objectives were to examine breastfeeding and formula-feeding practices overall and by infant gender and to examine relations among infant gender, milk-feeding practices, and obesity risk among Latino infants over the first year of life.

Methods

Latino mother-infant dyads (n = 90) were recruited from a pediatric clinic. Mothers were interviewed at regular intervals (infants aged 2, 4, 6, and 9 mo), and 24-h feeding recalls were conducted when infants were aged 6 and 9 mo. Infants' lengths and weights were retrieved from clinic records to calculate weight-for-length percentiles. A bivariate analysis was conducted to compare feeding practices by gender and mediation analysis to test whether feeding practices mediated the relation between gender and obesity risk.

Results

The majority (80%) of mothers were born outside the United States. In early infancy, mixed feeding of formula and breastfeeding was common. At 6 and 9 mo of age, milk-feeding practices differed, with formula feeding more common for boys than girls. At 12 mo, 38% of infants experienced obesity risk (≥85th weight-for-length percentile). Infants' obesity risk increased by 18% per 1 oz increase in powdered formula intake. Formula intake among boys was on average 1.42 oz (in dry weight) higher than that among girls, which, in turn, mediated their increased obesity risk (IERR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.90).

Conclusions

The increased obesity risk among Latino boys compared with girls at 12 mo was explained by higher rates of formula feeding at 6 and 9 mo of age. Future investigations of cultural values and beliefs in gender-related feeding practices are warranted to understand the differences in obesity risk between Latino boys and girls.

Levels of stunting associated factors among under-five children in Ethiopia: A multi-level ordinal logistic regression analysis

INTRODUCTION

Stunting is a major public health problem affecting more than one-third of under five year's old children in Ethiopia. It has short and long (irreversible) consequences, including stunted growth, never reaching physical and cognitive potential, struggles in school, and increased morbidity and mortality due to infections. Though stunting is the leading cause of child mortality in Ethiopia, evidence is scarce on the prevalence and predictors of stunting among under-five years old children in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the prevalence and predictors of stunting severity among under-5 children in Ethiopia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study was based on 2019 Mini-Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data. A weighted total sample of 4972 under-five years old children was included in the study. Height measurement was collected for each child. Anthropometric indicator, height-for-age was determined for children using World Health Organization growth standards (Z-scores for Height-for-Age (HAZ)) to asses stunting level. Given the ordinal nature of stunting and the hierarchical nature of EDHS data, a multilevel ordinal logistic regression model was applied. Brant test was used to check the proportional odds assumption, which was satisfied (P-value ≥0.05). Moreover, deviance was used for model comparison. For the multivariable analysis, variables with a p-value ≤0.2 in the bivariable analysis were considered. The Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported as associated factor to the severity levels of stunting in the multivariable multilevel proportional odds model.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of stunting among under-5 children in Ethiopia was 35.7% [95% CI: 34.4%, 37.1%]. Of these, 12.1% were severely stunted, and 24.9% were moderately stunted. Being male [AOR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.93], children aged 6-23 months [AOR = 2.38, 95% CI: 1.84, 3.07], ≥ 24 months [AOR = 4.15, 95% CI: 3.26, 5.28], children whose maternal age 15-24 years [AOR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.92], children from the poorest, poorer, middle, and richer household wealth were [AOR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.32, 2.57], [AOR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.31], [AOR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.29, 2.44], and [AOR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.17], children whose maternal educational status of no formal education and primary education had [AOR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.28, 2.82], [AOR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.22, 2.60], Tigray [AOR = 2.95, 95% CI: 1.78, 4.86], Afar [AOR = 1.85, 95% CI: 1.11, 3.10], Amhara [AOR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.14, 3.14] and Harari [AOR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.20, 3.25]regions, low community maternal education [AOR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.92] were significantly associated with stunting severity levelling.

CONCLUSION

Stunting among children under five years of old in Ethiopia remains a major public health issue. Improving access to maternal education is related to appropriate child feeding practices and health, particularly in younger and uneducated mothers. Strengthening the family's wealth status is also recommended to reduce stunting. In addition, it is better to support strategies of preconception care for mothers during pregnancy to reduce stunting in the long term.

Sex differences in mortality among children, adolescents, and young people aged 0-24 years: a systematic assessment of national, regional, and global trends from 1990 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Differences in mortality exist between sexes because of biological, genetic, and social factors. Sex differentials are well documented in children younger than 5 years but have not been systematically examined for ages 5-24 years. We aimed to estimate the sex ratio of mortality from birth to age 24 years and reconstruct trends in sex-specific mortality between 1990 and 2021 for 200 countries, major regions, and the world.

METHODS

We compiled comprehensive databases on the mortality sex ratio (ratio of male to female mortality rates) for individuals aged 0-4 years, 5-14 years, and 15-24 years. The databases contain mortality rates from death registration systems, full birth and sibling histories from surveys, and reports on household deaths in censuses. We modelled the sex ratio of age-specific mortality as a function of the mortality in both sexes using Bayesian hierarchical time-series models. We report the levels and trends of sex ratios and estimate the expected female mortality and excess female mortality rates (the difference between the estimated female mortality and the expected female mortality) to identify countries with outlying sex ratios.

FINDINGS

Globally, the mortality sex ratio was 1·13 (ie, boys were more likely to die than girls of the same age) for ages 0-4 years (90% uncertainty interval 1·11 to 1·15) in 2021. This ratio increased with age to 1·16 (1·12 to 1·20) for 5-14 years, reaching 1·65 for 15-24 years (1·52 to 1·75). In all age groups, the global sex ratio of mortality increased between 1990 and 2021, driven by faster declines in female mortality. In 2021, the probability of a newborn male reaching age 25 years was 94·1% (93·7 to 94·4), compared with 95·1% for a newborn female (94·7 to 95·3). We found a disadvantage of females versus males (compared with countries with similar total mortality) in 2021 in five countries for ages 0-4 years (Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, India, and Iran), one country (Suriname) for ages 5-14 years, and 13 countries for ages 15-24 years (including Bangladesh and India). We found the reverse pattern (disadvantage of males vs females compared with countries of similar total mortality) in one country in ages 0-4 years (Vietnam) and eight countries in ages 15-24 years (including Brazil and Mexico). Globally, the number of excess female deaths from birth to age 24 years was 86 563 (-6059 to 164 000) in 2021, down from 544 636 (453 982 to 633 265) in 1990.

INTERPRETATION

The global sex ratio of mortality for all age groups in the first 25 years of life increased between 1990 and 2021. Targeted interventions should focus on countries with outlying sex ratios of mortality to reduce disparities due to discrimination in health care, nutrition, and violence.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development, and King Abdullah University of Science and Technology.

Predictors and disparities in neonatal and under 5 mortality in rural Pakistan: cross sectional analysis

Background

Adopted in 2015, the sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set specific targets (SDG 3.2) for countries to reduce their neonatal mortality rate (NMR) to below 12 deaths per 1000 live births and under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) to below 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. For Pakistan to achieve these targets, there is a need to measure these rates and understand the predictors of child mortality at sub-national level. Launched in 2016, the Umeed-e-Nau (UeN) or New Hope project is based on scaling up proven and effective Maternal and Newborn Child Health (MNCH) interventions in 8 of the highest burden districts of the country, using existing public sector platforms in Pakistan at both the community and facility level. The primary aim of the project is to reduce perinatal mortality in these districts by 20% from baseline.

Methods

We report overall neonatal and post neonatal mortality rates for the two years preceding the UeN baseline household survey. Rates were calculated using the synthetic cohort probability method and predictors of neonatal and post neonatal mortality examined using Cox regression. To investigate spatial variations in the mortality rates, we calculated Moran's I at the district level using predicted probabilities of mortality. Finally, we create district level maps of predicted under 5 child mortality using a stochastic partial differentiation approach.

Findings

A total of 26,258 children contributed to the analysis of mortality with 838 deaths in the neonatal period and 2236 under-5 deaths during the observation period from March 1, 2015 to March 17, 2017. Overall, we estimated the NMR to be 29.2 per 1000 live births (95% CI: 26.9-31.4) and the U5MR to be 86.1 per 1000 live births (95% CI: 85.5-86.8). We found evidence of within-district geospatial clustering of under 5 mortality (P < 0.0001) and that social factors (poverty, illiteracy, multiparity), poor coverage of community health workers and distance from health facilities were strongly associated with child mortality.

Interpretation

Important factors associated with neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in our study population included maternal education, parity, household size and gender. Additionally, antenatal care coverage (at least 4 visits) was specifically associated with neonatal mortality only, whereas, LHW coverage and distance to health facility were strongly associated with post-neonatal mortality. These findings emphasise the need for comprehensive, multisectoral strategies to be implemented for future maternal and child health programs and outreach services in rural areas.

Funding

The study was funded by an unrestricted grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the Aga Khan University (Grant OPP 1148892).

Under age five children survival times in Nigeria: a Bayesian spatial modeling approach

BACKGROUND

Nigeria is among the top five countries in the world with the highest under-five mortality rates. In addition to the general leading causes of under-five mortality, studies have shown that disparity in sociocultural values and practices across ethnic groups in Nigeria influence child survival, thus there is a need for scientific validation. This study quantified the survival probabilities and the impact of socioeconomic and demographic factors, proximate and biological determinants, and environmental factors on the risk of under-five mortality in Nigeria.

METHODS

The Kaplan-Meier survival curve, Nelson Aalen hazard curve, and components survival probabilities were estimated. The Exponential, Gamma, Log-normal, Weibull, and Cox hazard models in a Bayesian mixed effect hierarchical hazard modeling framework with spatial components were considered, and the Deviance and Watanabe Akaike information criteria were used to select the best model for inference. A [Formula: see text] level of significance was assumed throughout this work. The 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey dataset was used, and the outcome variable was the time between birth and death or birth and the date of interview for children who were alive on the day of the interview.

RESULTS

Findings show that the probability of a child dying within the first two months is 0.04, and the probability of a boy child dying before attaining age five is 0.106, while a girl child is 0.094 probability. Gender, maternal education, household wealth status, source of water and toilet facility, residence, mass media, frequency of antenatal and postnatal visits, marital status, place of delivery, multiple births, who decide healthcare use, use of bednet are significant risk factors of child mortality in Nigeria. The mortality risk is high among the maternal age group below 24 and above 44years, and birth weight below 2.5Kg and above 4.5Kg. The under-five mortality risk is severe in Kebbi, Kaduna, Jigawa, Adamawa, Gombe, Kano, Kogi, Nasarawa, Plateau, and Sokoto states in Nigeria.

CONCLUSION

This study accentuates the need for special attention for the first two months after childbirth as it is the age group with the highest expected mortality. A practicable way to minimize death in the early life of children is to improve maternal healthcare service, promote maternal education, encourage delivery in healthcare facilities, positive parental attitude to support multiple births, poverty alleviation programs for the less privileged, and a prioritized intervention to Northern Nigeria.

Sex as a determinant of disease severity and clinical outcome in febrile children under five presenting to a regional referral hospital in Uganda

Sex and gender are well-established determinants of health in adult and adolescent populations in low resource settings. There are limited data on sex as a determinant of host response to disease and clinical outcome in febrile children in sub-Saharan Africa, where the risk of infection-related mortality is greatest. We examined sex differences and gender biases in health-seeking behavior, clinical care, biological response to infection, or outcome in a prospective observational cohort of febrile children under 5 years of age presenting to a regional referral hospital in Jinja, Uganda. Main outcomes (stratified by sex) were disease severity at presentation measured by clinical and biological parameters, clinical management (e.g., time to see a physician, treatment by diagnosis), and disease outcome (e.g., mortality). Clinical measures of disease severity included Lambaréné Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS), Signs of Inflammation in Children that Kill (SICK), and the Pediatric Early Death Index for Africa (PEDIA). Biological measures of disease severity were assessed using circulating markers of immune and endothelial activation associated with severe and fatal infections. Differences in outcome by sex were analyzed using bivariate analyses with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. In this cohort of febrile patients admitted to hospital (n = 2049), malaria infection was common (59.2%). 15.9% of children presented with severe disease (LODS score ≥ 2). 97 children (4.7%) died, and most deaths (n = 83) occurred within 48 hours of hospital admission. Clinical measures of disease severity at presentation, clinical management, and outcome (e.g., mortality) did not differ by sex in children under five years of age. Host response to infection, as determined by endothelial and inflammatory mediators (e.g., sTREM1, Ang-2) quantified at hospital presentation, did not differ by sex. In this cohort of children under the age of five, sex was not a principal determinant of disease severity at hospital presentation, clinical management, disease outcome, or biological response to infection (p-values not significant for all comparisons, after Bonferroni correction). The results suggest that health seeking behavior by caregivers and clinical care in the hospital setting did not reflect a gender bias in this cohort.

Gender, nutritional disparities, and child survival in Nepal

BACKGROUND

This paper examines seemingly contradictory evidence from extant research that son preference is high, but male disadvantage in mortality is increasing in Nepal. To do so, we documented the timing, geographic patterning, and extent of gendered patterns in mortality and feeding practices for children under-five.

METHODS

We applied pooled multilevel regression models and survival analysis to five rounds of data from Nepal's nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (1996-2016). We controlled for potential sociodemographic confounders, including child, maternal, household, and regional correlates, and disaggregated findings by birth order and sibling gender.

RESULTS

We found evidence of regional variation in mortality, with girls in wealthy urban areas faring the worst in terms of mortality rates. Girls' comparative mortality advantage compared to boys in the neonatal period masks their mortality disadvantage in later periods. Mortality has fallen at a faster rate for boys than girls in most cases, leading to widening of gender inequalities. We also found evidence of female disadvantage in breastfeeding duration, which was linked to higher mortality risks, but no gender disparities in the consumption of other food items. Sibling gender and birth order also mattered for breastfeeding duration: Young girls with older sisters but with no brothers were most disadvantaged.

CONCLUSION

While we did not find evidence of postnatal discrimination in access to solid and semi-solid foods, girls in Nepal face a disadvantage in breastfeeding duration. Girls with older sisters but no older brothers facing the greatest disadvantage, with risks being particularly concentrated for girls aged 1-4 years. This disadvantage is linked to an increased risk of mortality. To address this, community-based health programs could be expanded to continue targeted healthcare for children beyond 12 months of age, with particular focus on nutrition monitoring and health service provision for girls.

Effects of early-life poverty on health and human capital in children and adolescents: analyses of national surveys and birth cohort studies in LMICs

The survival and nutrition of children and, to a lesser extent, adolescents have improved substantially in the past two decades. Improvements have been linked to the delivery of effective biomedical, behavioural, and environmental interventions; however, large disparities exist between and within countries. Using data from 95 national surveys in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), we analyse how strongly the health, nutrition, and cognitive development of children and adolescents are related to early-life poverty. Additionally, using data from six large, long-running birth cohorts in LMICs, we show how early-life poverty can have a lasting effect on health and human capital throughout the life course. We emphasise the importance of implementing multisectoral anti-poverty policies and programmes to complement specific health and nutrition interventions delivered at an individual level, particularly at a time when COVID-19 continues to disrupt economic, health, and educational gains achieved in the recent past.

Sex inequality in under-five deaths and associated factors in low and middle-income countries: a Fairlie decomposition analysis

Background

There exist sex disparities in the burden of Under-five deaths (U5D) with a higher prevalence among male children. Factors explaining this inequality remain unexplored in Low-and Medium-Income Countries (LMIC). This study quantified the contributions of the individual- and neighborhood-level factors to sex inequalities in U5D in LMIC.

Methods

Demographic and Health Survey datasets (2010-2018) of 856,987 under-five children nested in 66,495 neighborhoods across 59 LMIC were analyzed. The outcome variable was U5D. The main group variable was the sex of the child while individual-level and neighborhood-level factors were the explanatory variables. Fairlie decomposition analysis was used to quantify the contributions of explanatory factors to the male-female inequalities in U5D at p<0.05.

Results

Overall weighted prevalence of U5D was 51/1000 children, 55 among males and 48 among females (p<0.001). Higher prevalence of U5D was recorded among male children in all countries except Liberia, Kyrgyz Republic, Bangladesh, Nepal, Armenia, Turkey and Papua New Guinea. Pro-female inequality was however not significant in any country. Of the 59 countries, 25 had statistically significant pro-male inequality. Different factors contributed to the sex inequality in U5D in different countries including birth order, birth weight, birth interval and multiple births.

Conclusions

There were sex inequalities in the U5D in LMIC with prominent pro-male-inequality in many countries. Interventions targeted towards the improvement of the health system that will, in turn, prevent preterm delivery and improve management of prematurity and early childhood infection (which are selective threats to the male child survival) are urgently required to address this inequality.

Incidence and predictors of under-five mortality in East Africa using multilevel Weibull regression modeling

BACKGROUND

In 2017, an estimated 5.3 million under-five children died annually in Sub-Saharan African countries, more than half of those deaths occurred in East Africa. Though East African countries share the huge burden of global under-five mortality, there is limited evidence on the incidence and predictors of under-five mortality. Therefore, this study investigated the incidence and predictors of under-five mortality in East Africa.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was done based on the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data of 12 East African countries conducted from 2008 to 2019. A total weighted sample of 138,803 live births within 5 years preceding the survey were included for analysis. The Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were done to assess the children's survival experience across variable categories. The Global Schoenfeld residual test was employed for checking Proportional Hazard (PH) assumptions and it was violated (p-value< 0.05). Considering the hierarchical nature of DHS data, multilevel parametric survival models were fitted. Model comparison was made by AIC, deviance, and shape of the hazard function. Variables with a p-value of less than 0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multilevel Weibull regression analysis, the Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to declare the significant predictors of under-five mortality.

RESULTS

Under-five mortality rate in East Africa was 51.318 (95% CI: 51.311, 51.323) per 1000 live births. Babies born to mothers attained secondary education and above (AHR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.91), being 2nd - 4th birth order (AHR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.67), ≥ 5th birth order (AHR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.76), health facility delivery (AHR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.93), 1-3 ANC visit (AHR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.54, 0.68), births interval of 24-48 months (AHR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.57), wanted pregnancy (AHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.76), middle wealth status (AHR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.97), and richest wealth status (AHR = 0.81, 95% CI:0.73, 0.90) were significantly associated with lower hazards of under-five mortality. Whereas, advanced maternal age (≥35 years) (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.24),, babies born to household who did not have media exposure (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.20), twin births (AHR = 3.81, 95% CI: 3.52, 4.12), being male child (AHR = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.21, 1.33), small birth size at birth (AHR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.63, 1.84), and large size at birth (AHR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.11) were significantly associated with higher hazards of under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Under-five mortality is a major public health concern in East African countries. Health facility delivery, ANC visit, higher wealth status, adequate birth spacing, wanted pregnancy, and maternal education were significantly correlated with a lower risk of under-5 mortality. Whereas, higher birth order, small or large size at birth, male birth, twin birth, advanced maternal age and mothers who didn't have media exposure were significantly correlated with a higher risk of under-five mortality. This study highlights that public health programs should enhance health facility delivery, ANC visit, media exposure, maternal education, and adequate birth spacing to decrease the incidence of under-five mortality in East Africa.

Levels and potential drivers of under-five mortality sex ratios in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Non-biological childhood mortality sex ratios may reflect community sex preferences and gender discrimination in health care.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the association between contextual factors and gender bias in under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

Full birth histories available from Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (2010-2018) in 80 countries were used to estimate U5MR male-to-female sex ratios. Expected sex ratios and their residuals (difference of observed and expected) were derived from a linear regression model, adjusted for overall mortality. Negative residuals indicate more likelihood of discrimination against girls, and we refer to this as a measure of potential gender bias. Associations between residuals and national development and gender inequality indices and with survey-derived child health care indicators were tested using Spearman's correlation.

RESULTS

Mortality residuals for under-five mortality were not associated with national development, education, religion, or gender inequality indices. Negative residuals were more common in countries where boys were more likely to be taken to health services than girls (rho -0.24, 95% confidence interval -0.45, -0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Countries where girls were more likely to die than boys, accounting for overall mortality levels, were also countries where boys were more likely to receive health care than girls. Further research is needed to understand which national characteristics explain the presence of gender bias, given that the analyses of development levels and gender equality did not discriminate between countries with or without excess mortality of girls. Reporting on child mortality separately by sex is required to enable such advances.

Neonatal mortality associated with perinatal asphyxia: a population-based study in a middle-income country

Background

It is challenging to decrease neonatal mortality in middle-income countries, where perinatal asphyxia is an important cause of death. This study aims to analyze the annual trend of neonatal mortality with perinatal asphyxia according to gestational age in São Paulo State, Brazil, during a 10-year period and to verify demographic, maternal and neonatal characteristics associated with these deaths.

Methods

Population-based study of neonatal deaths associated with perinatal asphyxia from 0 to 27 days in São Paulo State, Brazil, from 2004 to 2013. Perinatal asphyxia was considered as associated to death if intrauterine hypoxia, birth asphyxia or neonatal aspiration of meconium were noted in any line of the Death Certificate according to ICD-10. Poisson Regression was applied to analyze the annual trend of neonatal mortality rate according to gestational age. Kaplan-Meier curve was used to assess age at death during the 10-year study period. Hazard ratio of death during the neonatal period according to gestational age was analyzed by Cox regression adjusted by year of birth and selected epidemiological factors.

Results

Among 74,002 infant deaths in São Paulo State, 6648 (9%) neonatal deaths with perinatal asphyxia were studied. Neonatal mortality rate with perinatal asphyxia fell from 1.38‰ in 2004 to 0.95‰ in 2013 (p = 0.002). Reduction started in 2008 for neonates with 32–41 weeks, in 2009 for 28–31 weeks, and in 2011 for 22–27 weeks. Median time until 50% of deaths occurred was 25.3 h (95%CI: 24.0; 27.2). Variables independently associated with higher risk of death were < 7 prenatal visits, 1st minute Apgar score 0–3, and death at the same place of birth. Cesarean delivery compared to vaginal was protective against death with perinatal asphyxia for infants at 28–36 weeks.

Conclusions

There was an expressive reduction in neonatal mortality rates associated with perinatal asphyxia during this 10-year period in São Paulo State, Brazil. Variables associated with these deaths highlight the need of public health policies to improve quality of regionalized perinatal care.

Changing patterns of gender inequities in childhood mortalities during the Sustainable Development Goals era in Nigeria: findings from an artificial neural network analysis

OBJECTIVES

In line with the child survival and gender equality targets of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 3 and 5, we aimed to: (1) estimate the age and sex-specific mortality trends in child-related SDG indicators (ie, neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR)) over the 1960s-2017 period, and (2) estimate the expected annual reduction rates needed to achieve the SDG-3 targets by projecting rates from 2018 to 2030.

DESIGN

Group method of data handling-type artificial neural network (GMDH-type ANN) time series.

METHODS

This study used an artificial intelligence time series (GMDH-type ANN) to forecast age-specific childhood mortality rates (neonatal and under-five) and sex-specific U5MR from 2018 to 2030. The data sets were the yearly historical mortality rates between 1960s and 2017, obtained from the World Bank website. Two scenarios of mortality trajectories were simulated: (1) status quo scenarios-assuming the current trend continues; and (2) acceleration scenarios-consistent with the SDG targets.

RESULTS

At the projected rates of decline of 2.0% for NMR and 1.2% for U5MR, Nigeria will not achieve the child survival SDG targets by 2030. Unexpectedly, U5MR will begin to increase by 2028. To put Nigeria back on track, annual reduction rates of 7.8% for NMR and 10.7% for U5MR are required. Also, female U5MR is decreasing more slowly than male U5MR. At the end of SDG era, female deaths will be higher than male deaths (80.9 vs 62.6 deaths per 1000 live births).

CONCLUSION

Nigeria is not likely to achieve SDG targets for child survival and gender equities because female disadvantages will worsen. A plausible reason for the projected increase in female mortality is societal discrimination and victimisation faced by female child. Stakeholders in Nigeria need to adequately plan for child health to achieve SDG targets by 2030. Addressing gender inequities in childhood mortality in Nigeria would require gender-sensitive policies and community mobilisation against gender-based discrimination towards female child.

A scoping review of methods for assessment of sex differentials in early childhood mortality

BACKGROUND

While assessment of sex differentials in child mortality is straightforward, their interpretation must consider that, in the absence of gender bias, boys are more likely to die than girls. The expected differences are also influenced by levels and causes of death. However, there is no standard approach for determining expected sex differences.

METHODS

We performed a scoping review of studies on sex differentials in under-five mortality, using PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases. Publication characteristics were described, and studies were grouped according to their methodology.

RESULTS

From the 17,693 references initially retrieved we included 154 studies published since 1929. Indian, Bangladeshi, and Chinese populations were the focus of 44% of the works, and most studies addressed infant mortality. Fourteen publications were classified as reference studies, as these aimed to estimate expected sex differentials based upon the demographic experience of selected populations, either considered as gender-neutral or not. These studies used a variety of methods - from simple averages to sophisticated modeling - to define values against which observed estimates could be compared. The 21 comparative studies mostly used life tables from European populations as standard for expected values, but also relied on groups without assuming those values as expected, otherwise, just as comparison parameters. The remaining 119 studies were categorized as narrative and did not use reference values, being limited to reporting observed sex-specific estimates or used a variety of statistical models, and in general, did not account for mortality levels.

CONCLUSION

Studies aimed at identifying sex differentials in child mortality should consider overall mortality levels, and report on more than one age group. The comparison of results with one or more reference values, and the use of statistical testing, are strongly recommended. Time trends analyses will help understand changes in population characteristics and interpret findings from a historical perspective.

Sex-bias in the diagnosis of malnutrition in the elderly: a pilot study

This research aimed to show that using different cutoff points for women and men in nutritional assessment through the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and different anthropometric variables, improves the diagnostic accuracy of malnutrition among people over 65 years. A cross-sectional study was carried out in a sample of 240 patients of 65 to 104 years in Córdoba (Spain) between 2013 and 2015. Excluded were those with disabling diseases that prevented informed consent. We assessed Nutritional status using the MNA and the Chang Method (Gold Standard). Global cut points per sex were determined for each independent variable using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves, choosing the best of each according to the highest Youden´s index (J). None of the variables studied showed high precision in the diagnosis of malnutrition in the elderly. Different cutoff points were found for all variables by sex, as well as variations in their validity indexes. The number of lymphocytes was more accurate in women (J = 0.58), being the muscular circumference of the arm the best in men (J = 0.8). Regarding MNA, the Long Form version showed higher sensitivity (S) in women (S = 76%) and short versions in men (S = 71% and 59%) at different cutoff points. The introduction of the sex variable seems determinant to achieve a more accurate diagnostic of malnutrition, avoiding biases derivate from a global study without considering its effect in the development of diseases.

Socioeconomic and gender inequalities in neonatal, postneonatal and child mortality in India: a repeated cross-sectional study, 2005-2016

BACKGROUND

In India, excess female under-5 mortality is well documented. Under-5 mortality is also known to be patterned by socioeconomic factors. This study examines sex differentials and sex-specific wealth gradients in neonatal, postneonatal and child mortality in India.

METHODS

Repeated cross-sectional study of nationally representative samples of 298 955 children 0-60 months old from the National Family Health Surveys conducted in 2005-2006 and 2015-2016. The study used logistic regression models as well as Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Overall, boys had greater neonatal mortality than girls and the difference increased between 2005-2006 and 2015-2016. Girls had greater postneonatal and child mortality, but the difference decreased between the surveys and was not statistically significant for child mortality in 2015-2016. A negative wealth gradient was found for all mortality outcomes. Neonatal mortality was persistently greater for boys. Girls had higher child mortality than boys at low levels of wealth and greater postneonatal mortality over much of the wealth distribution. The wealth gradient in neonatal mortality increased between surveys. Females had a stronger wealth gradient than boys for child mortality.

CONCLUSION

Not distinguishing between neonatal, postneonatal and child mortality masks important gender-specific and wealth-specific disparities in under-5 mortality in India. Substantial gains towards the Sustainable Development Goals can be made by combating neonatal mortality, especially at low levels of wealth. Although impressive improvements have been made in reducing the female disadvantage in postneonatal and child mortality, concerted engagements are necessary to eliminate the gender gap-especially in poor households and in north India.

Age distribution, trends, and forecasts of under-5 mortality in 31 sub-Saharan African countries: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Despite the sharp decline in global under-5 deaths since 1990, uneven progress has been achieved across and within countries. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for child mortality were met only by a few countries. Valid concerns exist as to whether the region would meet new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for under-5 mortality. We therefore examine further sources of variation by assessing age patterns, trends, and forecasts of mortality rates.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data came from 106 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) with full birth histories from 31 SSA countries from 1990 to 2017 (a total of 524 country-years of data). We assessed the distribution of age at death through the following new demographic analyses. First, we used a direct method and full birth histories to estimate under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) on a monthly basis. Second, we smoothed raw estimates of death rates by age and time by using a two-dimensional P-Spline approach. Third, a variant of the Lee-Carter (LC) model, designed for populations with limited data, was used to fit and forecast age profiles of mortality. We used mortality estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) to adjust, validate, and minimize the risk of bias in survival, truncation, and recall in mortality estimation. Our mortality model revealed substantive declines of death rates at every age in most countries but with notable differences in the age patterns over time. U5MRs declined from 3.3% (annual rate of reduction [ARR] 0.1%) in Lesotho to 76.4% (ARR 5.2%) in Malawi, and the pace of decline was faster on average (ARR 3.2%) than that observed for infant (IMRs) (ARR 2.7%) and neonatal (NMRs) (ARR 2.0%) mortality rates. We predict that 5 countries (Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda) are on track to achieve the under-5 sustainable development target by 2030 (25 deaths per 1,000 live births), but only Rwanda and Tanzania would meet both the neonatal (12 deaths per 1,000 live births) and under-5 targets simultaneously. Our predicted NMRs and U5MRs were in line with those estimated by the UN IGME by 2030 and 2050 (they overlapped in 27/31 countries for NMRs and 22 for U5MRs) and by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) by 2030 (26/31 and 23/31, respectively). This study has a number of limitations, including poor data quality issues that reflected bias in the report of births and deaths, preventing reliable estimates and predictions from a few countries.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this study is the first to combine full birth histories and mortality estimates from external reliable sources to model age patterns of under-5 mortality across time in SSA. We demonstrate that countries with a rapid pace of mortality reduction (ARR ≥ 3.2%) across ages would be more likely to achieve the SDG mortality targets. However, the lower pace of neonatal mortality reduction would prevent most countries from achieving those targets: 2 countries would reach them by 2030, 13 between 2030 and 2050, and 13 after 2050.

Excess under-5 female mortality across India: a spatial analysis using 2011 census data

BACKGROUND

Excess female mortality causes half of the missing women (estimated deficit of women in countries with suspiciously low proportion of females in their population) today. Globally, most of these avoidable deaths of women occur during childhood in China and India. We aimed to estimate excess female under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) for India's 35 states and union territories and 640 districts.

METHODS

Using the summary birth history method (or Brass method), we derived district-level estimates of U5MR by sex from 2011 census data. We used data from 46 countries with no evidence of gender bias for mortality to estimate the effects and intensity of excess female mortality at district level. We used a detailed spatial and statistical analysis to highlight the correlates of excess mortality at district level.

FINDINGS

Excess female U5MR was 18·5 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 13·1-22·6) in India 2000-2005, which corresponds to an estimated 239 000 excess deaths (169 000-293 000) per year. More than 90% of districts had excess female mortality, but the four largest states in northern India (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh) accounted for two-thirds of India's total number. Low economic development, gender inequity, and high fertility were the main predictors of excess female mortality. Spatial analysis confirmed the strong spatial clustering of postnatal discrimination against girls in India.

INTERPRETATION

The considerable effect of gender bias on mortality in India highlights the need for more proactive engagement with the issue of postnatal sex discrimination and a focus on the northern districts. Notably, these regions are not the same as those most affected by skewed sex ratio at birth.

FUNDING

None.

Gender equality in the global health workplace: learning from a Somaliland-UK paired institutional partnership

Worldwide recognition of gender inequality and discrimination following the #MeToo movement has been slow to reach the field of global health. Although international institutions have begun to address gender, the perspectives of front-line global health workers remain largely undocumented, especially in regions not captured by large-scale surveys. Long-term collaborative relationships between clinicians and educators participating in paired institutional partnerships can foster cross-cultural dialogue about potentially sensitive subjects. King’s Somaliland Partnership (KSP) has linked universities and hospitals in Somaliland and London, UK, for health education and improvement, since 2000. We collaboratively developed an anonymous, mixed methods, online survey to explore workplace experiences among Somaliland and UK-based staff and volunteers. We adapted the Workplace Prejudice/Discrimination Inventory to address gender inequality, alongside qualitative questions. Somaliland (but not UK) women reported significantly more gender prejudice and discrimination than men (medians=43 and 31, z=2.137, p=0.0326). While front-line Somaliland workers described overt gender discrimination more frequently, UK respondents reported subtler disadvantage at systemic levels. This first survey of its kind in Somaliland demonstrates the potential of global health partnerships to meaningfully explore sensitive subjects and identify solutions, involving a range of multidisciplinary stakeholders. We propose priority actions to address pervasive gender inequality and discrimination, including wider engagement of academia with gender-focused research, institutional actions to address barriers, national prioritisation and nurturing of grassroots initiatives, through institutional partnerships and international networks. Without sustained, concerted intervention across all levels, gender inequality will continue to hinder progress towards the vision of good health for all, everywhere.