Impact of COVID-19 social distancing measures on future incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales: a mathematical modelling study

Serotype-specific serum immunoglobulin G at 18 months of age following one or two doses of a primary series of 10-valent or 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and a booster dose at nine months of age: a randomized controlled study

BACKGROUND

Due to high costs of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV), transitioning from a two (2 + 1) to a single dose (1 + 1) primary series with a booster should be considered. This study evaluated the immune response at 18 months of age following a 1 + 1 compared to a 2 + 1 schedule of 10-valent (PCV10) and 13-valent (PCV13) vaccines.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A single-center, open-label, randomized trial conducted in Soweto, South Africa, evaluated the immunogenicity of differing dosing schedule for PCV10 and PCV13. Six hundred children were randomly assigned to six study arms (1:1:1:1:1:1). Non-inferiority was concluded when the lower limit of the 96% confidence interval of the ratio of geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) of the 1 + 1 and 2 + 1 schedules was >0.5 for at least 10 and eight of the PCV13 and PCV10 serotypes, respectively.

RESULTS

GMCs in children who received the PCV13_6w + 1 and PCV13_14w + 1 schedule were non-inferior for 11 and 10 of the PCV13 serotypes, respectively, compared with the PCV13_2 + 1 arm. For PCV10, GMCs for both 1 + 1 schedules were non-inferior to a 2 + 1 schedule for nine of the PCV10 serotypes.

CONCLUSION

Transitioning to a 1 + 1 schedule should be considered for early immunization programs.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

www.clinicaltrials.gov identifier is NCT02943902.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing MenACWY vaccination strategies in Germany

BACKGROUND

The invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) routine immunization recommendation in Germany is a meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) conjugate vaccine for toddlers aged 12 months with a catch-up for unimmunized up to 17 years. However, there are no recommendations for routine meningococcal serogroups A, C, W, Y (MenACWY) vaccination or for adolescent vaccinations; this differs from other European countries. This analysis aimed to understand the benefits of implementing adolescent MenACWY vaccination in Germany.

METHODS

A static population-cohort model evaluating IMD burden and related health outcomes (e.g., cases, cases with long-term sequelae, deaths) was developed to compare any two meningococcal vaccination strategies. We compared hypothetical vaccination strategies that included different approaches to adolescent vaccination in Germany, such as vaccinating at 13-year olds versus 16-year olds and vaccinating with MenC versus MenACWY. Additional strategies considered the benefit that could be provided by switching the current MenC vaccine recommendation in toddlers to MenACWY.

RESULTS

All strategies that included MenACWY vaccine were effective in decreasing the number of cases, preventing mortality and offered good value for money. The greatest benefit was observed in individuals vaccinated with MenACWY at 12 months and 16 years of age (2,978 IMD cases averted; 563 IMD deaths prevented). Compared with the current strategy of MenC vaccination at 12 months of age, two-dose strategies that included MenACWY reported incremental cost-effectiveness ratios <€13,205 per quality-adjusted life year. Adolescent strategies of MenC or MenACWY vaccine at 16 years old (with no vaccination at 12 months) dominated current vaccination strategies. Adolescent vaccination at 16 years old versus 13 years old offered slightly better value for money.

CONCLUSIONS

With recent increases in IMD cases and outbreaks occurring globally following the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a greater urgency to proactively implement a MenACWY vaccine recommendation to protect adolescents in Germany. This recommendation would provide direct protection to a group at increased risk and offer indirect protection to other population groups. Implementation of a school-based immunization program could increase vaccine uptake and overcome hurdles in adolescent vaccination.

Recent temporal trends, characteristics and outcomes of patients with non-COVID-19 community-acquired pneumonia at two tertiary hospitals in Australia: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) leads to considerable morbidity and mortality globally. However, data on CAP burden in Australia, especially during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, are limited.

AIMS

We characterised and assessed clinical outcomes of non-COVID-19 CAP hospitalisations over a 6-year period at two major hospitals in South Australia.

METHODS

All non-COVID-19 CAP hospitalisations were identified using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth revision, Australian modification (ICD-10-AM) codes, between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2023, at two tertiary hospitals in Adelaide. Clinical outcomes included in-hospital and 30-day mortality, length of stay (LOS) in, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and 30-day readmissions. Multilevel regression models were utilised to identify predictors of clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Over the 6-year period, there were 7853 non-COVID-19 CAP hospitalisations, with a temporal increase from 100 per 100 000 population in 2018 to 208 per 100 000 population in 2023 (P < 0.001). The mean (SD) age was 75.1 (17.6) years, and 54.6% were males. The mean age declined over time (P < 0.05), while other characteristics remained stable. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most commonly identified bacterium (21.8% of cases). In-hospital mortality occurred in 7.8% of patients, with 30-day mortality and readmission rates of 14.3% and 16.9% respectively. LOS declined significantly during the pandemic years; however, mortality remained stable over time. Frailty status, malnutrition and number of comorbidities significantly predicted 30-day mortality and LOS, in addition to pneumonia severity and ICU admission.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been an increasing trend of hospitalisations for non-COVID-19 CAP during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a concomitant trend towards shorter LOS and no significant shift in other clinical outcomes.

Potential impact of replacing the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine with 15-valent or 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the 1 + 1 infant schedule in England: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Paediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programmes in England using seven-valent PCV (PCV7) in 2006 and 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 2010 have reduced vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease, but the overall effect has been reduced by an increase in invasive pneumococcal disease due to non-vaccine serotypes and serotype 3. We developed pneumococcal transmission models to investigate the potential effect on invasive pneumococcal disease of higher valency PCVs covering an additional two (ie, 15-valent PCV [PCV15]) or seven serotypes (ie, 20-valent PCV [PCV20]) in England.

METHODS

We conducted a modelling study using realistic, age-structured, and compartmental deterministic models fitted to carriage data from before the introduction of PCVs and invasive pneumococcal disease data from before and after the introduction of PCV7 and PCV13 in England from the UK Heath Security Agency invasive pneumococcal disease surveillance system. We estimated key parameters, including PCV7 and PCV13 efficacy against vaccine-type carriage and invasiveness of PCV7 serotypes; the additional serotypes in PCV13, PCV15 and PCV20; and non-vaccine serotypes. We simulated the effect of transitioning from PCV13 to PCV15 or PCV20 in infants under the current 1 + 1 vaccination schedule and investigated the effect of reduced carriage protection against PCV13 serotypes due to attenuation of immunogenicity in higher valency vaccines.

FINDINGS

Our results suggest that PCV15 might increase overall invasive pneumococcal disease as the reduction in vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease would be counterbalanced by an increase in non-PCV15 invasive pneumococcal disease. By contrast, PCV20 is projected to have a substantial impact on overall invasive pneumococcal disease due to higher invasiveness of the additional serotypes covered by PCV20 than the replacing non-vaccine serotypes. Reduced carriage protection against PCV13 serotypes with higher valency vaccines would amplify these effects.

INTERPRETATION

Replacing PCV13 with PCV20 is likely to have a substantial public health benefit, but PCV15 could potentially increase the overall burden of disease.

FUNDING

UK Health Security Agency and National Institute of Health Research.

Serotype Distribution and Disease Severity in Adults Hospitalized with Streptococcus pneumoniae Infection, Bristol and Bath, UK, 2006‒2022

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccinations should be evaluated and considered in formulating future public health policy recommendations.

Ongoing surveillance after pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV) deployment is essential to inform policy decisions and monitor serotype replacement. We report serotype and disease severity trends in 3,719 adults hospitalized for pneumococcal disease in Bristol and Bath, United Kingdom, during 2006–2022. Of those cases, 1,686 were invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD); 1,501 (89.0%) had a known serotype. IPD decreased during the early COVID-19 pandemic but during 2022 gradually returned to prepandemic levels. Disease severity changed throughout this period: CURB65 severity scores and inpatient deaths decreased and ICU admissions increased. PCV7 and PCV13 serotype IPD decreased from 2006–2009 to 2021–2022. However, residual PCV13 serotype IPD remained, representing 21.7% of 2021–2022 cases, indicating that major adult PCV serotype disease still occurs despite 17 years of pediatric PCV use. Percentages of serotype 3 and 8 IPD increased, and 19F and 19A reemerged. In 2020–2022, a total of 68.2% IPD cases were potentially covered by PCV20.

Long-term temporal trends in incidence rate and case fatality of sepsis and COVID-19-related sepsis in Norwegian hospitals, 2008-2021: a nationwide registry study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate temporal trends in incidence rate (IR) and case fatality during a 14-year period from 2008 to 2021, and to assess possible shifts in these trends during the COVID-19 pandemic.

SETTING

All Norwegian hospitals 2008-2021.

PARTICIPANTS

317 705 patients ≥18 year with a sepsis International Classification of Diseases 10th revision code retrieved from The Norwegian Patient Registry.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MEASURES

Annual age-standardised IRs with 95% CIs. Poisson regression was used to estimate changes in IRs across time, and logistic regression was used to estimate ORs for in-hospital death.

RESULTS

Among 12 619 803 adult hospitalisations, a total of 317 705 (2.5%) hospitalisations in 222 832 (70.0%) unique patients met the sepsis criteria. The overall age-standardised IR of a first sepsis admission was 246/100 000 (95% CI 245 to 247), whereas the age-standardised IR of all sepsis admissions was 352/100 000 (95% CI 351 to 354). In the period 2009-2019, the annual IR for a first sepsis episode was stable (IR ratio (IRR) per year, 0.999; 95% CI 0.994 to 1.004), whereas for recurrent sepsis the IR increased (annual IRR, 1.048; 95% CI 1.037 to 1.059). During the COVID-19 pandemic, the IRR for a first sepsis was 0.877 (95% CI 0.829 to 0.927) in 2020 and 0.929 (95% CI 0.870 to 0.992) in 2021, and for all sepsis it was 0.870 (95% CI 0.810 to 0.935) in 2020 and 0.908 (95% CI 0.840 to 0.980) in 2021, compared with the previous 11-year period. Case fatality among first sepsis admissions declined in the period 2009-2019 (annual OR 0.954 (95% CI 0.950 to 0.958)), whereas case fatality increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (OR 1.061 (95% CI 1.001 to 1.124) and in 2021 (OR 1.164 (95% CI 1.098 to 1.233)).

CONCLUSION

The overall IR of sepsis increased from 2009 to 2019, due to an increasing IR of recurrent sepsis, and indicates that sepsis awareness with updated guidelines and education must continue.

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Switching to Higher-Valency Pediatric Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in the United Kingdom

Currently, the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is administered under a 1+1 (1 primary dose) pediatric schedule in the United Kingdom (UK). Higher-valency PCVs, 15-valent PCV (PCV15), or 20-valent PCV (PCV20) might be considered to expand serotype coverage. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of PCV20 or PCV15 using either a 2+1 (2 primary doses) or 1+1 schedule for pediatric immunization in the UK. Using a dynamic transmission model, we simulated future disease incidence and costs under PCV13 1+1, PCV20 2+1, PCV20 1+1, PCV15 2+1, and PCV15 1+1 schedules from the UK National Health Service perspective. We prospectively estimated disease cases, direct costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Scenario analyses were performed to estimate the impact of model assumptions and parameter uncertainty. Over a five-year period, PCV20 2+1 averted the most disease cases and gained the most additional QALYs. PCV20 2+1 and 1+1 were dominant (cost-saving and more QALYs gained) compared with PCV15 (2+1 or 1+1) and PCV13 1+1. PCV20 2+1 was cost-effective (GBP 8110/QALY) compared with PCV20 1+1. PCV20 was found cost-saving compared with PCV13 1+1, and PCV20 2+1 was cost-effective compared with PCV20 1+1. Policymakers should consider the reduction in disease cases with PCV20, which may offset vaccination costs.

Assessing the Role of Infant and Toddler MenACWY Immunisation in the UK: Does the Adolescent MenACWY Programme Provide Sufficient Protection?

A combined Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib)/meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) vaccine will soon be unavailable in the UK immunisation schedule due to discontinuation by the manufacturer. An interim statement by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) advises stopping MenC immunisation at 12 months of age when this occurs. We undertook an analysis of the public health impact of various potential meningococcal vaccination strategies in the UK in the absence of the Hib/MenC vaccine. A static population-cohort model was developed evaluating the burden of IMD (using 2005-2015 epidemiological data) and related health outcomes (e.g., cases, cases with long-term sequelae, deaths), which allows for the comparison of any two meningococcal immunisation strategies. We compared potential strategies that included different combinations of infant and/or toddler MenACWY immunisations with the anticipated future situation in which a 12-month MenC vaccine is not used, but the MenACWY vaccine is routinely given in adolescents. The most effective strategy is combining MenACWY immunisation at 2, 4, and 12 months of age with the incumbent adolescent MenACWY immunisation programme, resulting in the prevention of an additional 269 IMD cases and 13 fatalities over the modelling period; of these cases, 87 would be associated with long-term sequelae. Among the different vaccination strategies, it was observed that those with multiple doses and earlier doses provided the greatest protection. Our study provides evidence suggesting that the removal of the MenC toddler immunisation from the UK schedule would potentially increase the risk of unnecessary IMD cases and have a detrimental public health impact if not replaced by an alternate infant and/or toddler programme. This analysis supports that infant and toddler MenACWY immunisation can provide maximal protection while complementing both infant/toddler MenB and adolescent MenACWY immunisation programmes in the UK.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on community respiratory virus activity

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused substantial global morbidity and deaths, leading governments to turn to non-pharmaceutical interventions to slow down the spread of infection and lessen the burden on health care systems. These policies have evolved over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, including after the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, with regional and country-level differences in their ongoing use. The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with changes in respiratory virus infections worldwide, which have differed between virus types. Reductions in respiratory virus infections, including by influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus, were most notable at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and continued in varying degrees through subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections. The decreases in community infection burden have resulted in reduced hospitalizations and deaths associated with non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections. Respiratory virus evolution relies on the maintaining of a diverse genetic pool, but evidence of genetic bottlenecking brought on by case reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in reduced genetic diversity of some respiratory viruses, including influenza virus. By describing the differences in these changes between viral species across different geographies over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, we may better understand the complex factors involved in community co-circulation of respiratory viruses.

Mathematical modeling of pneumococcal transmission dynamics in response to PCV13 infant vaccination in Germany predicts increasing IPD burden due to serotypes included in next-generation PCVs

INTRODUCTION

Two next-generation pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), a 15- and a 20-valent PCV (PCV15 and PCV20), have recently been licensed for use in adults, and PCV15 has also been licensed in children. We developed a dynamic transmission model specific for Germany, with the aim to predict carriage prevalence and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) burden for serotypes included in these vaccines.

METHODS

The model allows to follow serotype distributions longitudinally both in the absence and presence of PCV vaccinations. We considered eight age cohorts and seven serotype groups according to the composition of different pneumococcal vaccines. This comprises the additional serotypes contained in PCV15 and PCV20 but not in PCV13.

RESULTS

The model predicted that by continuing the current vaccine policy (standard vaccination with PCV13 in children and with PPSV23 in adults) until 2031, IPD case counts due to any serotype in children <2 years of age will remain unchanged. There will be a continuous decrease of IPD cases in adults aged 16-59y, but a 20% increase in adults ≥60y. Furthermore, there will be a steady decrease of the proportion of carriage and IPD due to serotypes included in PCV7 and PCV13 over the model horizon and a steady rise of non-PCV13 serotypes in carriage and IPD. The highest increase for both pneumococcal carriage and absolute IPD case counts was predicted for serotypes 22F and 33F (included in both PCV15 and PCV20) and serotypes 8, 10A, 11A, 12F, and 15B (included in PCV20 only), particularly in older adults. Between 2022 and 2031, serotypes included in PCV20 only are expected to cause 19.7-25.3% of IPD cases in adults ≥60y.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that introduction of next-generation PCVs for adults may prevent a substantial and increasing proportion of adult IPDs, with PCV20 having the potential to provide the broadest protection against pneumococcal disease.

Incidence of community acquired lower respiratory tract disease in Bristol, UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: A prospective cohort study

Background

The emergence of COVID-19 and public health measures implemented to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections have both affected acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) epidemiology and incidence trends. The severity of COVID-19 and non-SARS-CoV-2 aLRTD during this period have not been compared in detail.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cohort study of adults age ≥18 years admitted to either of two acute care hospitals in Bristol, UK, from August 2020 to November 2021. Patients were included if they presented with signs or symptoms of aLRTD (e.g., cough, pleurisy), or a clinical or radiological aLRTD diagnosis.

Findings

12,557 adult aLRTD hospitalisations occurred: 10,087 were associated with infection (pneumonia or non-pneumonic lower respiratory tract infection [NP-LRTI]), 2161 with no infective cause, with 306 providing a minimal surveillance dataset. Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection accounted for 32% (3178/10,087) of respiratory infections. Annual incidences of overall, COVID-19, and non- SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia were 714.1, 264.2, and 449.9, and NP-LRTI were 346.2, 43.8, and 302.4 per 100,000 adults, respectively. Weekly incidence trends in COVID-19 aLRTD showed large surges (median 6.5 [IQR 0.7-10.2] admissions per 100,000 adults per week), while other infective aLRTD events were more stable (median 14.3 [IQR 12.8-16.4] admissions per 100,000 adults per week) as were non-infective aLRTD events (median 4.4 [IQR 3.5-5.5] admissions per 100,000 adults per week).

Interpretation

While COVID-19 disease was a large component of total aLRTD during this pandemic period, non- SARS-CoV-2 infection still caused the majority of respiratory infection hospitalisations. COVID-19 disease showed significant temporal fluctuations in frequency, which were less apparent in non-SARS-CoV-2 infection. Despite public health interventions to reduce respiratory infection, disease incidence remains high.

Funding

AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.

Incidence of community acquired lower respiratory tract disease in Bristol, UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The emergence of COVID-19 and public health measures implemented to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections have both affected acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) epidemiology and incidence trends. The severity of COVID-19 and non-SARS-CoV-2 aLRTD during this period have not been compared in detail.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of adults age ≥18 years admitted to either of two acute care hospitals in Bristol, UK, from August 2020 to November 2021. Patients were included if they presented with signs or symptoms of aLRTD (e.g., cough, pleurisy), or a clinical or radiological aLRTD diagnosis.

FINDINGS

12,557 adult aLRTD hospitalisations occurred: 10,087 were associated with infection (pneumonia or non-pneumonic lower respiratory tract infection [NP-LRTI]), 2161 with no infective cause, with 306 providing a minimal surveillance dataset. Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection accounted for 32% (3178/10,087) of respiratory infections. Annual incidences of overall, COVID-19, and non- SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia were 714.1, 264.2, and 449.9, and NP-LRTI were 346.2, 43.8, and 302.4 per 100,000 adults, respectively. Weekly incidence trends in COVID-19 aLRTD showed large surges (median 6.5 [IQR 0.7-10.2] admissions per 100,000 adults per week), while other infective aLRTD events were more stable (median 14.3 [IQR 12.8-16.4] admissions per 100,000 adults per week) as were non-infective aLRTD events (median 4.4 [IQR 3.5-5.5] admissions per 100,000 adults per week).

INTERPRETATION

While COVID-19 disease was a large component of total aLRTD during this pandemic period, non- SARS-CoV-2 infection still caused the majority of respiratory infection hospitalisations. COVID-19 disease showed significant temporal fluctuations in frequency, which were less apparent in non-SARS-CoV-2 infection. Despite public health interventions to reduce respiratory infection, disease incidence remains high.

FUNDING

AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.

Increased Incidence of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease among Children after COVID-19 Pandemic, England

During July–December 2021, after COVID-19 restrictions were removed in England, invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in children <15 years of age was higher (1.96/100,000 children) than during the same period in 2020 (0.7/100,000 children) and in prepandemic years 2017–2019 (1.43/100,000 children). Childhood vaccine coverage should be maintained to protect the population.

Association of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic With Invasive Pneumococcal Disease, Pneumococcal Carriage, and Respiratory Viral Infections Among Children in France

IMPORTANCE

An association between pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has been previously established. However, it is unclear whether the decrease in IPD incidence observed after implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with concomitant changes in pneumococcal carriage and respiratory viral infections.

OBJECTIVE

To assess changes in IPD incidence after the implementation of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic and examine their temporal association with changes in pneumococcal carriage rate and respiratory viral infections (specifically respiratory syncytial virus [RSV] and influenza cases) among children in France.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used interrupted time series analysis of data from ambulatory and hospital-based national continuous surveillance systems of pneumococcal carriage, RSV and influenza-related diseases, and IPD between January 1, 2007, and March 31, 2021. Participants included 11 944 children younger than 15 years in France.

EXPOSURES

Implementation of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The estimated fraction of IPD change after implementation of NPIs and the association of this change with concomitant changes in pneumococcal carriage rate and RSV and influenza cases among children younger than 15 years. The estimated fraction of change was analyzed using a quasi-Poisson regression model.

RESULTS

During the study period, 5113 children (median [IQR] age, 1.0 [0.6-4.0] years; 2959 boys [57.9%]) had IPD, and 6831 healthy children (median [IQR] age, 1.5 [0.9-3.9] years; 3534 boys [51.7%]) received a swab test. Data on race and ethnicity were not collected. After NPI implementation, IPD incidence decreased by 63% (95% CI, -82% to -43%; P < .001) and was similar for non-13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotypes with both high disease potential (-63%; 95% CI, -77% to -48%; P < .001) and low disease potential (-53%; 95% CI, -70% to -35%; P < .001). The overall pneumococcal carriage rate did not significantly change after NPI implementation (-12%; 95% CI, -37% to 12%; P = .32), nor did the carriage rate for non-PCV13 serotypes with high disease potential (-26%; 95% CI, -100% to 52%; P = .50) or low disease potential (-7%; 95% CI, -34% to 20%; P = .61). After NPI implementation, the estimated number of influenza cases decreased by 91% (95% CI, -74% to -97%; P < .001), and the estimated number of RSV cases decreased by 74% (95% CI, -55% to -85%; P < .001). Overall, the decrease in influenza and RSV cases accounted for 53% (95% CI, -28% to -78%; P < .001) and 40% (95% CI, -15% to -65%; P = .002) of the decrease in IPD incidence during the NPI period, respectively. The decrease in IPD incidence was not associated with pneumococcal carriage, with carriage accounting for only 4% (95% CI, -7% to 15%; P = .49) of the decrease.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of data from multiple national continuous surveillance systems, a decrease in pediatric IPD incidence occurred after the implementation of NPIs in France; this decrease was associated with a decrease in viral infection cases rather than pneumococcal carriage rate. The association between pneumococcal carriage and IPD was potentially modified by changes in the number of RSV and influenza cases, suggesting that interventions targeting respiratory viruses, such as immunoprophylaxis or vaccines for RSV and influenza, may be able to prevent a large proportion of pediatric IPD cases.

Shift in Clinical Profile of Hospitalized Pneumonia in Children in the Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Period During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Prospective Multicenter Study

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against coronavirus disease 2019 were implemented in March 2020. These measures were followed by a major impact on viral and non-viral diseases. We aimed to assess the impact of NPI implementation in France on hospitalized community-acquired pneumonia (hCAP) frequency and the clinical and biological characteristics of the remaining cases in children. We performed a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series analysis. Between June 2014 and December 2020, eight pediatric emergency departments throughout France reported prospectively all cases of hCAP in children from age 1 month to 15 years. We estimated the impact on the monthly number of hCAP using segmented linear regression with autoregressive error model. We included 2,972 hCAP cases; 115 occurred during the NPI implementation period. We observed a sharp decrease in the monthly number of hCAP after NPI implementation [-63.0% (95 confidence interval, -86.8 to -39.2%); p < 0.001]. Children with hCAP were significantly older during than before the NPI period (median age, 3.9 vs. 2.3 years; p < 0.0001), and we observed a higher proportion of low inflammatory marker status (43.5 vs. 33.1%; p = 0.02). Furthermore, we observed a trend with a decrease in the proportion of cases with pleural effusion (5.3% during the NPI period vs. 10.9% before the NPI; p = 0.06). NPI implementation during the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led not only to a strong decrease in the number of hCAP cases but also a modification in the clinical profile of children affected, which may reflect a change in pathogens involved.