Estimated mortality of adult HIV-infected patients starting treatment with combination antiretroviral therapy

Incidence and predictors of mortality within the first year of antiretroviral therapy initiation at Debre-Markos Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: A retrospective follow up study

BACKGROUND

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is one of the most fatal infectious diseases in the world, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. Even though Antiretroviral therapy (ART) significantly decreases mortality overall, death rates are still highest especially in the first year of ART initiation.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incidence and predictors of mortality within the first year of ART initiation among adults on ART at Debre-Markos Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 514 newly enrolled adults to ART from 2014 to 2018 at Debre-Markos Referral Hospital. Patients' chart number was selected from the computer using a simple random sampling technique. Data were entered into EPI- INFO 7.2.2.6 and analyzed using Stata 14.0. The mortality rate within the first year was computed and described using frequency tables. Both bivariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard models were fitted to show predictors of early mortality.

RESULTS

Out of 494 patient records included in the analysis, a total of 54 deaths were recorded within one year follow-up period. The overall mortality rate within 398.37 person years (PY) was 13.56 deaths/100 PY with the higher rate observed within the first three months. After adjustment, rural residence (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.05-3.71), ≥ 6 months pre-ART duration (AHR = 2.17; 95% CI: 1.24-3.79), ambulatory or bedridden functional status at enrolment (AHR = 2.18; 95% CI: 1.01-4.74), and didn't take Cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) during follow-up (AHR = 1.88; 95% CI: 1.04-3.41) were associated with early mortality of adults on ART.

CONCLUSION

Mortality within the first year of ART initiation was high and rural residence, longer pre-Art duration, ambulatory or bedridden functional status and didn't take CPT during follow-up were found to be independent predictors. Hence, giving special attention for patients from rural area and provision of CPT is crucial to reduce mortality.

Mortality Rate in a Cohort of People Living With HIV in Rural Tanzania After Accounting for Unseen Deaths Among Those Lost to Follow-up

Mortality assessment in cohorts with high numbers of persons lost to follow-up (LTFU) is challenging in settings with limited civil registration systems. We aimed to assess mortality in a clinical cohort (the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO)) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons in rural Tanzania, accounting for unseen deaths among participants LTFU. We included adults enrolled in 2005-2015 and traced a nonrandom sample of those LTFU. We estimated mortality using Kaplan-Meier methods 1) with routinely captured data (method A), 2) crudely incorporating tracing data (method B), 3) weighting using tracing data to crudely correct for unobserved deaths among participants LTFU (method C), and 4) weighting using tracing data accounting for participant characteristics (method D). We investigated associated factors using proportional hazards models. Among 7,460 adults, 646 (9%) died, 883 (12%) transferred to other clinics, and 2,911 (39%) were LTFU. Of 2,010 (69%) traced participants, 325 (16%) were found: 131 (40%) had died and 130 (40%) had transferred. Five-year mortality estimates derived using the 4 methods were 13.1% (A), 16.2% (B), 36.8% (C), and 35.1% (D), respectively. Higher mortality was associated with male sex, referral as a hospital inpatient, living close to the index clinic, lower body mass index, more advanced World Health Organization HIV clinical stage, lower CD4 cell count, and less time since initiation of antiretroviral therapy. Adjusting for unseen deaths among participants LTFU approximately doubled the 5-year mortality estimates. Our approach is applicable to other cohort studies adopting targeted tracing.

Loss to follow-up correction increased mortality estimates in HIV-positive people on antiretroviral therapy in Mozambique

OBJECTIVES

People living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) may be lost to follow-up (LTFU), which hampers the assessment of outcomes. We estimated mortality for patients starting ART in a rural region in sub-Saharan Africa and examined risk factors for death, correcting for LTFU.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We analyzed data from Ancuabe, Mozambique, where patients LTFU are traced by phone and home visits. We used cumulative incidence functions to estimate mortality and LTFU. To correct for LTFU, we revised outcomes based on tracing data using different inverse probability weights (maximum likelihood, Ridge regression, or Bayesian model averaging). We fitted competing risk models to identify risk factors for death and LTFU.

RESULTS

The analyses included 4,492 patients; during 8,152 person-years of follow-up, 486 patients died, 2,375 were LTFU, 752 were traced, and 603 were found. At 4 years after starting ART, observed mortality was 11.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.9-13.0), but 23.5% (95% CI: 19.8-28.0), 21.6% (95% CI: 18.7-25.0), and 23.3% (95% CI: 19.7-27.6) after correction with maximum likelihood, Ridge regression, and Bayesian model averaging weights, respectively. The risk factors for death included male sex, lower CD4 cell counts, and more advanced clinical stage.

CONCLUSION

In ART programs with substantial LTFU, mortality estimates need to take LTFU into account.

International epidemiology databases to evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) in sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2019

PURPOSE

The objectives of the International epidemiology databases to evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) are to (i) evaluate the delivery of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children, adolescents and adults in sub-Saharan Africa, (ii) to describe ART regimen effectiveness, durability and tolerability, (iii) to examine HIV-related comorbidities and coinfections and (iv) to examine the pregnancy-related and HIV-related outcomes of women on ART and their infants exposed to HIV or ART in utero or via breast milk.

PARTICIPANTS

IeDEA is organised in four regions (Central, East, Southern and West Africa), with 240 treatment and care sites, six data centres at African, European and US universities, and almost 1.4 million children, adolescents and adult people living with HIV (PLWHIV) enrolled.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The data include socio-demographic characteristics, clinical outcomes, opportunistic events, treatment regimens, clinic visits and laboratory measurements. They have been used to analyse outcomes in PLWHIV-1 or PLWHIV-2 who initiate ART, including determinants of mortality, of switching to second-line and third-line ART, drug resistance, loss to follow-up and the immunological and virological response to different ART regimens. Programme-level estimates of mortality have been corrected for loss to follow-up. We examined the impact of coinfection with hepatitis B and C, and the epidemiology of different cancers and of (multidrug resistant) tuberculosis, renal disease and of mental illness. The adoption of 'Treat All', making ART available to all PLWHIV regardless of CD4+ cell count or clinical stage was another important research topic.

FUTURE PLANS

IeDEA has formulated several research priorities for the 'Treat All' era in sub-Saharan Africa. It recently obtained funding to set up sentinel sites where additional data are prospectively collected on cardiometabolic risks factors as well as mental health and liver diseases, and is planning to create a drug resistance database.

All-cause mortality after antiretroviral therapy initiation in HIV-positive women from Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas

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Background:

Women account for over half of persons living with HIV/AIDS globally. We examined geographic variation in all-cause mortality after antiretroviral therapy (ART) for women living with HIV (WLWH) worldwide.

Methods:

We pooled data from WLWH at least 18 years initiating ART 2000–2014 within COHERE (Europe) and IeDEA regions (East Africa, West Africa, South Africa, North America, Latin America/Caribbean). Mortality rates were calculated at 0–3, 3–6, 6–12, 12–24 and 24–48 months after ART, and mortality rate ratios were compared with European rates with piecewise exponential parametric survival models based on Poisson regression.

Findings:

One hundred ninety thousand, one hundred and seventy-five WLWH (16% Europe, 47% East Africa, 13% West Africa, 19% South Africa, 1% South America, 3% North America and 2% Central America/Caribbean) were included. The highest death rates occurred 0–3 months after ART [1.51 (95% CI 1.25–1.82) per 100 person-years in Europe, 12.45 (11.30–13.73), 14.03 (13.12–15.02) and 9.44 (8.80–10.11) in East, West and South Africa, and 1.53 (0.97–2.43), 7.83 (5.44–11.27) and 17.02 (14.62–19.81) in North, South America and Central America/Caribbean, respectively] and declined thereafter. Mortality in Europe was the lowest, with regional differences greatest in the first 3 months and smaller at longer ART durations [adjusted rate ratios 24–48 months after ART: 3.63 (95% CI 3.04–4.33), 5.61 (4.84–6.51) and 3.47 (2.97–4.06) for East, West and South Africa; 2.86 (2.26–3.62), 2.42 (1.65–3.55) and 2.50 (1.92–3.26) for North, South America and Central America/Caribbean, respectively].

Conclusion:

Global variations in short-term and long-term mortality among WLWH initiating ART may inform context-specific interventions.

Global variations in mortality in adults after initiating antiretroviral treatment: an updated analysis of the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS cohort collaboration

BACKGROUND

UNAIDS models use data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration in setting assumptions about mortality rates after antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation. This study aims to update these assumptions with new data, to quantify the extent of regional variation in ART mortality and to assess trends in ART mortality.

METHODS

Adult ART patients from Africa, Asia and the Americas were included if they had a known date of ART initiation during 2001-2017 and a baseline CD4 cell count. In cohorts that relied only on passive follow-up (no patient tracing or linkage to vital registration systems), mortality outcomes were imputed in patients lost to follow-up based on a meta-analysis of tracing study data. Poisson regression models were fitted to the mortality data.

RESULTS

464 048 ART patients were included. In multivariable analysis, mortality rates were lowest in Asia and highest in Africa, with no significant differences between African regions. Adjusted mortality rates varied significantly between programmes within regions. Mortality rates in the first 12 months after ART initiation were significantly higher during 2001-2006 than during 2010-2014, although the difference was more substantial in Asia and the Americas [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 1.43, 95% CI: 1.22-1.66] than in Africa (aIRR 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11).

CONCLUSION

There is substantial variation in ART mortality between and within regions, even after controlling for differences in mortality by age, sex, baseline CD4 category and calendar period. ART mortality rates have declined substantially over time, although declines have been slower in Africa.

Parameter estimates for trends and patterns of excess mortality among persons on antiretroviral therapy in high-income European settings

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Introduction:

HIV cohort data from high-income European countries were compared with the UNAIDS Spectrum modelling parameters for these same countries to validate mortality rates and excess mortality estimates for people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods:

Data from 2000 to 2015 were analysed from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) for Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland. Flexible parametric models were used to compare all-cause mortality rates in the ART-CC and Spectrum. The percentage of AIDS-related deaths and excess mortality (both are the same within Spectrum) were compared, with excess mortality defined as that in excess of the general population mortality.

Results:

Analyses included 94 026 PLHIV with 585 784 person-years of follow-up, from which there were 5515 deaths. All-cause annual mortality rates in Spectrum for 2000–2003 were 0.0121, reducing to 0.0078 in 2012–2015, whilst the ART-CC's corresponding annual mortality rates were 0.0151 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.0130–0.0171] reducing to 0.0049 (95% CI: 0.0039–0.0060). The percentage of AIDS-related deaths in Spectrum was 74.7% in 2000–2003, dropping to 43.6% in 2012–2015. In the ART-CC, AIDS-related mortality constitutes 45.3% (95% CI: 38.4–52.9%) of mortality in 2000–2003 and 26.7% (95% CI: 19–46%) between 2012 and 2015. Excess mortality in the ART-CC was broadly similar to the Spectrum estimates, dropping from 75.3% (95% CI: 60.3–95.2%) in 2000–2003 to 30.7% (95% CI: 25.5–63.7%) in 2012–2015.

Conclusion:

All-cause mortality assumptions for PLHIV on ART in high-income European settings should be adjusted in Spectrum to be higher in 2000–2003 and decline more quickly to levels currently captured for recent years.

Funding antiretroviral treatment for HIV-positive temporary residents in Australia prevents transmission and is inexpensive

Background The aim of this study is to estimate the reduction in new HIV infections and resultant cost outcomes of providing antiretroviral treatment (ART) through Australia's 'universal access' health scheme to all temporary residents with HIV infection living legally in Australia, but currently deemed ineligible to access subsidised ART via this scheme.

METHODS

A mathematical model to estimate the number of new HIV infections averted and the associated lifetime costs over 5 years if all HIV-positive temporary residents in Australia had access to ART and subsidised medical care was developed. Input data came from a cohort of 180 HIV-positive temporary residents living in Australia who are receiving free ART donated by pharmaceutical companies for up to 4 years.

RESULTS

Expanding ART access to an estimated total 450 HIV+ temporary residents in Australia for 5 years could avert 80 new infections. The model estimated the total median discounted (5%) cost for ART and associated care to be A$36million, while the total savings in lifetime-discounted costs for the new infections averted was A$22million.

CONCLUSIONS

It is estimated that expanded access to ART for all HIV-positive temporary residents in Australia will substantially reduce HIV transmission to their sexual partners at little additional cost. In the context of Australia's National HIV strategy and Australia's endorsement of global goals to provide universal access to ART for all people with HIV, this is an important measure to remove inequities in the provision of HIV-related treatment and care.

Nonparametric estimation of the cumulative incidence function under outcome misclassification using external validation data

Misclassification of outcomes or event types is common in health sciences research and can lead to serious bias when estimating the cumulative incidence functions in settings with competing risks. Recent work has shown how to estimate nonparametric cumulative incidence functions in the presence of nondifferential outcome misclassification when the misclassification probabilities are known. Here, we extend this approach to account for misclassification that is differential with respect to important predictors of the outcome using misclassification probabilities estimated from external validation data. Moreover, we propose a bootstrap approach in which the observations from both the main study data and the external validation study are resampled to allow the uncertainty in the misclassification probabilities to propagate through the analysis into the final confidence intervals, ensuring appropriate confidence interval coverage probabilities. The proposed estimator is shown to be uniformly consistent and simulation studies indicate that both the estimator and the standard error estimation approach perform well in finite samples. The methodology is applied to estimate the cumulative incidence of death and disengagement from HIV care in a large cohort of HIV infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa, where a significant death underreporting issue leads to outcome misclassification. This analysis uses external validation data from a separate study conducted in the same country.

Predictors of mortality within the first year of initiating antiretroviral therapy in urban and rural Kenya: A prospective cohort study

Introduction

Despite increased treatment availability, HIV-infected individuals continue to start antiretroviral therapy (ART) late in disease progression, increasing early mortality risk.

Materials and methods

Nested prospective cohort study within a randomized clinical trial of adult patients initiating ART at clinics in urban Nairobi and rural Maseno, Kenya, between 2013–2014. We estimated mortality incidence rates following ART initiation and used Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of mortality within 12 months of ART initiation. Analyses were stratified by clinic site to examine differences in mortality correlates and risk by location.

Results

Among 811 participants initiated on ART, the mortality incidence rate within a year of initiating ART was 7.44 per 100 person-years (95% CI 5.71, 9.69). Among 207 Maseno and 612 Nairobi participants initiated on ART, the mortality incidence rates (per 100 person-years) were 12.78 (95% CI 8.49, 19.23) and 5.72 (95% CI 4.05, 8.09). Maseno had a 2.20-fold greater risk of mortality than Nairobi (95% CI 1.29, 3.76; P = 0.004). This association remained [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.09 (95% CI 1.17, 3.74); P = 0.013] when adjusting for age, gender, education, pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR), and CD4 count, but not when adjusting for BMI. In unadjusted analyses, other predictors (P<0.05) of mortality included male gender (HR = 1.74), age (HR = 1.04 for 1-year increase), fewer years of education (HR = 0.92 for 1-year increase), unemployment (HR = 1.89), low body mass index (BMI<18.5 m/kg²; HR = 4.99), CD4 count <100 (HR = 11.67) and 100–199 (HR = 3.40) vs. 200–350 cells/μL, and pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR; HR = 2.49). The increased mortality risk associated with older age, males, and greater education remained when adjusted for location, age, education and PDR, but not when adjusted for BMI and CD4 count. PDR remained associated with increased mortality risk when adjusted for location, age, gender, education, and BMI, but not when adjusted for CD4 count. CD4 and BMI associations with increased mortality risk persisted in multivariable analyses. Despite similar baseline CD4 counts across locations, mortality risk associated with low CD4 count, low BMI, and PDR was greater in Maseno than Nairobi in stratified analyses.

Conclusions

High short-term post-ART mortality was observed, partially due to low CD4 count and BMI at presentation, especially in the rural setting. Male gender, older age, and markers of lower socioeconomic status were also associated with greater mortality risk. Engaging patients earlier in HIV infection remains critical. PDR may influence short-term mortality and further studies to optimize management will be important in settings with increasing PDR.

Assessing rates and contextual predictors of 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals following HIV testing in Durban, South Africa

Background

Little is known about contextual factors that predict long-term mortality following HIV testing in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of contextual factors on 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals in Durban, South Africa.

Methods

We used data from the Sizanani trial (NCT01188941) in which adults (≥18y) were enrolled prior to HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites. We ascertained vital status via the South African National Population Register. We used random survival forests to identify the most influential predictors of time to death and incorporated these into a Cox model that included age, gender, HIV status, CD4 count, healthcare usage, health facility type, mental health, and self-identified barriers to care (i.e., service delivery, financial, logistical, structural and perceived health).

Results

Among 4816 participants, 39% were HIV-infected. Median age was 31y and 49% were female. 380 of 2508 with survival information (15%) died during median follow-up of 5.8y. For both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected participants, each additional barrier domain increased the HR of dying by 11% (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05–1.18). Every 10-point increase in mental health score decreased the HR by 7% (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.97). The hazard ratio (HR) for death of HIV-infected versus HIV-uninfected varied by age: HR of 6.59 (95% CI: 4.79–9.06) at age 20 dropping to a HR of 1.13 (95% CI: 0.86–1.48) at age 60.

Conclusions

Independent of serostatus, more self-identified barrier domains and poorer mental health increased mortality risk. Additionally, the impact of HIV on mortality was most pronounced in younger persons. These factors may be used to identify high-risk individuals requiring intensive follow up, regardless of serostatus.

Trial registration

Clinical Trials.gov Identifier NCT01188941. Registered 26 August 2010.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4373-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Retention and mortality on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: collaborative analyses of HIV treatment programmes

Introduction

By 2020, 90% of all people diagnosed with HIV should receive long‐term combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). In sub‐Saharan Africa, this target is threatened by loss to follow‐up in ART programmes. The proportion of people retained on ART long‐term cannot be easily determined, because individuals classified as lost to follow‐up, may have self‐transferred to another HIV treatment programme, or may have died. We describe retention on ART in sub‐Saharan Africa, first based on observed data as recorded in the clinic databases, and second adjusted for undocumented deaths and self‐transfers.

Methods

We analysed data from HIV‐infected adults and children initiating ART between 2009 and 2014 at a sub‐Saharan African HIV treatment programme participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). We used the Kaplan–Meier method to calculate the cumulative incidence of retention on ART and the Aalen–Johansen method to calculate the cumulative incidences of death, loss to follow‐up, and stopping ART. We used inverse probability weighting to adjust clinic data for undocumented mortality and self‐transfer, based on estimates from a recent systematic review and meta‐analysis.

Results

We included 505,634 patients: 12,848 (2.5%) from Central Africa, 109,233 (21.6%) from East Africa, 347,343 (68.7%) from Southern Africa and 36,210 (7.2%) from West Africa. In crude analyses of observed clinic data, 52.1% of patients were retained on ART, 41.8% were lost to follow‐up and 6.0% had died 5 years after ART initiation. After accounting for undocumented deaths and self‐transfers, we estimated that 66.6% of patients were retained on ART, 18.8% had stopped ART and 14.7% had died at 5 years.

Conclusions

Improving long‐term retention on ART will be crucial to attaining the 90% on ART target. Naïve analyses of HIV cohort studies, which do not account for undocumented mortality and self‐transfer of patients, may severely underestimate both mortality and retention on ART.

Determinants of survival of people living with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy in Brazil 2006-2015

Background

We compared AIDS-related mortality rates in people living with HIV (PLHIV) starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Brazil during 2006–2015 and examined associated risk factors .

Methods

Data on ART use in PLHIV and AIDS mortality in Brazil was analysed with piecewise constant exponential models. Mortality rates and hazard ratios were estimated for 0–6, 6–12, 13–24, 25–36 and > 36 months of ART use and adjusted for region, age, sex, baseline CD4 cell count and calendar year of ART initiation. An additional analysis restricted to those with data on risk group was also performed.

Results

269,076 individuals were included in the analysis, 165,643 (62%) males and 103,433 (38%) females, with 1,783,305 person-years of follow-up time. 21,749 AIDS deaths were reported and 8898 deaths occurred in the first year of ART. The risk of death in the first six months decreased with early ART initiation; those starting treatment early with CD4 > 500 cells per μL had a hazard ratio of 0.06 (95% CI 0.05–0.07) compared with CD4 < 200 cells per μL. Older age, male sex, intravenous drug use and starting treatment in earlier calendar years were associated with higher mortality rates. People living in the North, Northeast and South of Brazil experienced significantly higher AIDS mortality rates than those in the Southeast (HR 1.44, [95% CI 1.35–1.54], 1.10 [1.05–1.16] and 1.22 [1.17–1.28] respectively).

Conclusions

Early treatment is likely to have contributed to the improved survival in PLHIV on ART, with the greatest benefits observed in women, younger age-groups and those living in the North.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3844-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Survival and associated factors among people living with HIV/AIDS: A 30-year national survey in Iran

Background:

The survival in Iranian HIV/AIDS patients based on data from Iran National HIV/AIDS Case Registry System has not been evaluated. This study assessed the survival rates and associated factors among people living with HIV/AIDS in Iran.

Materials and Methods:

The population in this observational study included 32168 patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS registered in Iran disease registry system between 1986 and 31 December 2015. Data until June 2016 (the cutoff date of our last data linkage) were investigated to estimate survival and related factors following HIV diagnosis.

Results:

Of registered patients, 17.7% were diagnosed at AIDS stage. By June 2016, 27.2% of study population progressed to AIDS, and 8081 (25.1%) of patients died. The survival rate was 88%, 85%, 77%, and 67% for 1, 2, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Cumulative proportion surviving was significantly lower in males than in females (P = 0.0001). A higher rate of survival was seen in female patients, who diagnosed after 2010, infected in sexual route, and had CD4 cell count more than 500, nonconfected patients with tuberculosis (TB), and those who received antiretroviral therapy (ART). Based on multivariate model, the mortality risk in female patients, those with CD4 cell count more than 500, patients who received ART, and those with TB and injection drug uses (IDUs) was higher.

Conclusion:

The survival in studied patients increased in recent time periods, and ART reduced AIDS-related mortality in these patients. The survival can be increased by focus on improvements in patient care among male patients, IDUs, and patients with TB coinfection.

IeDEA-WHO Research-Policy Collaboration: contributing real-world evidence to HIV progress reporting and guideline development

Partnerships between researchers and policymakers can improve uptake and integration of scientific evidence. This article describes the research-policy partnership between the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) ( www.iedea.org) and the World Health Organization (WHO), which was established in 2014. IeDEA is an international research consortium, which analyses data on almost 2 million people living with HIV under care in routine settings in 46 countries in Asia-Pacific, the Caribbean, Central and South America, North America and sub-Saharan Africa. Five multiregional analyses were identified to inform the WHO on progress towards the second and third 90s of the 90-90-90 targets in adults and children: (i) trends in CD4 cell counts at the start of antiretroviral therapy (ART); (ii) delays from enrolment in HIV care to ART initiation; (iii) the impact of ART guideline changes; (iv) retention in care, mortality and loss to follow-up; and (v) viral suppression within the first 3 years after initiating ART. Results from these analyses were contributed to the 2015 and 2016 WHO global HIV progress reports, will contribute to the 2018 report, and were published in academic journals. The partnership has been mutually beneficial: discussion of WHO policy agendas led to more policy-framed, relevant and timely IeDEA research, and the collaboration provided the WHO with timely access to the latest data from IeDEA, as it was shared prior to peer-review publication.

Attrition when providing antiretroviral treatment at CD4 counts >500cells/μL at three government clinics included in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial in South Africa

Introduction

WHO recommends antiretroviral treatment (ART) for all HIV-positive individuals. This study evaluated the association between baseline CD4 count and attrition in a cohort of HIV positive adults initiating ART at three department of health (DOH) clinics routinely providing ART at baseline CD4 counts >500cells/μL for the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial.

Methods

All clients attending the DOH clinics were managed according to standard care guidelines with the exception that those starting ART outside of pertinent local guidelines signed research informed consent. DOH data on all HIV-positive adult clients recorded as having initiated ART between January 2014 and November 2015 at the three study clinics was analysed. Attrition, included clients lost to follow up or died, and was defined as ‘being three or more months late for an antiretroviral pharmacy pick-up appointment’. All clients were followed until attrition, transfer out or end May 2016.

Results

A total of 2423 clients with a median baseline CD4 count of 328 cells/μL (IQR 195–468) were included of whom 631 (26.0%) experienced attrition and 140 (5.8%) were TFO. Attrition was highest during the first six months of ART (IR 38.3/100 PY; 95% CI 34.8–42.1). Higher attrition was found amongst those with baseline CD4 counts > 500 cells/μL compared to those with baseline CD4 counts of 0–500 cells/μL (aHR 1.26, 95%CI 1.05 to 1.52) This finding was confirmed on subset analyses when restricted to individuals non-pregnant at baseline and when restricted to individuals with follow up of > 12months.

Conclusions

Attrition in this study was high, particularly during the first six months of treatment. Attrition was highest amongst clients starting ART at baseline CD4 counts > 500 cells/μL. Strategies to improve retention amongst ART clients, particularly those starting ART at baseline CD4 counts >500cells/μL, need strengthening. Improved monitoring of clients moving in and out of ART care and between clinics will assist in better understanding attrition and ART coverage in high burden countries.

Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Model estimates of mortality rates in ART patients were obtained from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data (1997-2013) and mortality data from the South African vital registration system (1997-2014), using a Bayesian approach. In the 1985-2014 period, 2.70 million adult HIV-related deaths occurred in South Africa. Adult HIV deaths peaked at 231,000 per annum in 2006 and declined to 95,000 in 2014, a reduction of 74.7% (95% CI: 73.3%-76.1%) compared to the scenario without ART. However, HIV mortality in 2014 was estimated to be 69% (95% CI: 46%-97%) higher in 2014 (161,000) if the model was calibrated only to HIV prevalence data. In the 2000-2014 period, the South African ART programme is estimated to have reduced the cumulative number of HIV deaths in adults by 1.72 million (95% CI: 1.58 million-1.84 million) and to have saved 6.15 million life years in adults (95% CI: 5.52 million-6.69 million). This compares with a potential saving of 8.80 million (95% CI: 7.90 million-9.59 million) life years that might have been achieved if South Africa had moved swiftly to implement WHO guidelines (2004-2013) and had achieved high levels of ART uptake in HIV-diagnosed individuals from 2004 onwards. The model is limited by its reliance on all-cause mortality data, given the lack of reliable cause-of-death reporting, and also does not allow for changes over time in tuberculosis control programmes and ART effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

ART has had a dramatic impact on adult mortality in South Africa, but delays in the rollout of ART, especially in the early stages of the ART programme, have contributed to substantial loss of life. This is the first study to our knowledge to calibrate a model of ART impact to population-level recorded death data in Africa; models that are not calibrated to population-level death data may overestimate HIV-related mortality.

Evaluating the care cascade after antiretroviral therapy initiation in Latin America

Accelerating antiretroviral therapy (ART) administration, improving retention, and achieving viral suppression in low- and middle-income countries must be prioritized. We evaluated trends and disparities in these milestones in a large Latin American cohort. Adults starting ART (ART_start) from 2003 to 2014 at Caribbean, Central, and South America network for HIV epidemiology sites were assessed for care cascade outcomes: CD4 cell count >200 cells/mm³ at ART_start; retention (≥1 visit at one year after ART_start); viral suppression (≥1 HIV-1 RNA <200 copies/ml at one year after ART_start). Modified Poisson regression provided adjusted prevalence ratios by age, gender, and HIV transmission risk, accounting for site and year of ART_start. Proportions achieving ART_start and suppression improved over time (p < 0.05). Older age was associated with better retention and viral suppression, but not ART_start at CD4 cell count >200 cells/mm³. Females and men who have sex with men (MSM) were more likely to have CD4 cell count >200 cells/mm³ at ART_start. Injection drug users (IDUs) were less likely to be retained while MSM were more likely to achieve viral suppression (all p < 0.05). Despite improvements in these outcomes over the course of a decade in this cohort, significant disparities existed, disadvantaging younger patients, men, and IDUs. These gaps indicate continued progress in providing early diagnosis and ART_start remain critical.

Barriers to Care and 1-Year Mortality Among Newly Diagnosed HIV-Infected People in Durban, South Africa

Background:

Prompt entry into HIV care is often hindered by personal and structural barriers. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of self-perceived barriers to health care on 1-year mortality among newly diagnosed HIV-infected individuals in Durban, South Africa.

Methods:

Before HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites, adults (≥18 years) were surveyed regarding perceived barriers to care including (1) service delivery, (2) financial, (3) personal health perception, (4) logistical, and (5) structural. We assessed deaths via phone calls and the South African National Population Register. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to determine the association between number of perceived barriers and death within 1 year.

Results:

One thousand eight hundred ninety-nine HIV-infected participants enrolled. Median age was 33 years (interquartile range: 27–41 years), 49% were females, and median CD4 count was 192/μL (interquartile range: 72–346/μL). One thousand fifty-seven participants (56%) reported no, 370 (20%) reported 1–3, and 460 (24%) reported >3 barriers to care. By 1 year, 250 [13%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 12% to 15%] participants died. Adjusting for age, sex, education, baseline CD4 count, distance to clinic, and tuberculosis status, participants with 1–3 barriers (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.08) and >3 barriers (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.35 to 2.43) had higher 1-year mortality risk compared with those without barriers.

Conclusions:

HIV-infected individuals in South Africa who reported perceived barriers to medical care at diagnosis were more likely to die within 1 year. Targeted structural interventions, such as extended clinic hours, travel vouchers, and streamlined clinic operations, may improve linkage to care and antiretroviral therapy initiation for these people.

Implementation and Operational Research: Impact of Nurse-Targeted Care on HIV Outcomes Among Immunocompromised Persons: A Before-After Study in Uganda

INTRODUCTION

Improving HIV outcomes among severely immunocompromised HIV-infected persons who have increased morbidity and mortality remains an important issue in sub-Saharan Africa. We sought to evaluate the impact of targeted clinic-based nurse care on antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and retention among severely immunocompromised HIV-infected persons.

METHODS

The study included ART-naive patients with CD4 counts <100 cells per microliter registered in seven urban clinics in Kampala, Uganda. Data were retrospectively collected on patients enrolled from July to December 2011 (routine care cohort). Between July 2012 and September 2013, 1 additional nurse per clinic was hired (nurse counselor cohort) to identify new patients, expedite ART initiation, and trace those who were lost to follow-up. We compared time to ART initiation and 6-month retention in care between cohorts and used a generalized linear model to estimate the relative risk of retention.

RESULTS

The study included 258 patients in the routine care cohort and 593 in the nurse counselor cohort. The proportion of patients who initiated ART increased from 190 (73.6%) in the routine care cohort to 506 (85.3%) in the nurse counselor cohort (P < 0.001). At 6 months, 62% of the routine care cohort were retained in care versus 76% in the nurse counselor cohort (P = 0.001). A 21% increase in the likelihood of retention in the nurse counselor cohort (relative risk: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.34) compared with the routine care cohort was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of targeted nurse-led care of severely immunocompromised HIV-infected patients in public outpatient health care facilities resulted in decreased time to ART initiation and increased retention.

All-cause mortality in HIV-positive adults starting combination antiretroviral therapy: correcting for loss to follow-up

OBJECTIVE

To estimate mortality in HIV-positive patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) and to discuss different approaches to calculating correction factors to account for loss to follow-up.

METHODS

A total of 222 096 adult HIV-positive patients who started ART 2009-2014 in clinics participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS collaboration in 43 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and North America were included. To allow for underascertainment of deaths due to loss to follow-up, two correction factors (one for the period 0-6 months on ART and one for later periods) or 168 correction factors (combinations of two sexes, three time periods after ART initiation, four age groups, and seven CD4 groups) based on tracing patients lost in Kenya and data linkages in South Africa were applied. Corrected mortality rates were compared with a worst case scenario assuming all patients lost to follow-up had died.

RESULTS

Loss to follow-up differed between regions; rates were lowest in central Africa and highest in east Africa. Compared with using two correction factors (1.64 for the initial ART period and 2.19 for later), applying 168 correction factors (range 1.03-4.75) more often resulted in implausible mortality rates that exceeded the worst case scenario. Corrected mortality rates varied widely, ranging from 0.2 per 100 person-years to 54 per 100 person-years depending on region and covariates.

CONCLUSION

Implausible rates were less common with the simpler approach based on two correction factors. The corrected mortality rates will be useful to international agencies, national programmes, and modellers.

Measuring Health Literacy Among Adults with HIV Infection in Mozambique: Development and Validation of the HIV Literacy Test

The role of health literacy on HIV outcomes has not been evaluated widely in Africa, in part because few appropriate literacy measures exist. We developed a 16-item scale, the HIV Literacy Test (HIV-LT) to assess literacy-related tasks needed to participate in HIV care. Items were scored as correct or incorrect; higher scores indicated higher literacy skill (range 0-100 %). We tested internal reliability (Kuder-Richardson coefficient) of the HIV-LT in a convenience sample of 319 Portuguese-speaking, HIV infected adults on antiretroviral treatment in Maputo, Mozambique. Construct validity was assessed by a hypothetical model developed a priori. The HIV-LT was reliable and valid to measure participants' literacy skills. The mean HIV-LT score was 42 %; literacy skills applicable to HIV care were challenging for many participants. The HIV-LT could be used to assess the relationship of literacy and HIV-related outcomes in diverse settings, and evaluate interventions to improve health communication for those in HIV care.

Outcomes of HIV-positive patients lost to follow-up in African treatment programmes

OBJECTIVE

The retention of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is key to achieving global targets in response to the HIV epidemic. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) can be substantial, with unknown outcomes for patients lost to ART programmes. We examined changes in outcomes of patients LTFU over calendar time, assessed associations with other study and programme characteristics and investigated the relative success of different tracing methods.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and logistic random-effects meta-regression analysis of studies that traced adults or children who started ART and were LTFU in sub-Saharan African treatment programmes. The primary outcome was mortality, and secondary outcomes were undocumented transfer to another programme, treatment interruption and the success of tracing attempts.

RESULTS

We included 32 eligible studies from 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa: 20 365 patients LTFU were traced, and 15 708 patients (77.1%) were found. Compared to telephone calls, tracing that included home visits increased the probability of success: the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 9.35 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.85-47.31). The risk of death declined over calendar time (aOR per 1-year increase 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.95), whereas undocumented transfers (aOR 1.13, 95% CI 0.96-1.34) and treatment interruptions (aOR 1.31, 95% CI 1.18-1.45) tended to increase. Mortality was lower in urban than in rural areas (aOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.98), but there was no difference in mortality between adults and children. The CD4 cell count at the start of ART increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among HIV-positive patients who started ART in sub-Saharan Africa, were lost to programmes and were successfully traced has declined substantially during the scale-up of ART, probably driven by less severe immunodeficiency at the start of therapy.

Producing HIV estimates: from global advocacy to country planning and impact measurement

BACKGROUND

The development of global HIV estimates has been critical for understanding, advocating for and funding the HIV response. The process of generating HIV estimates has been cited as the gold standard for public health estimates.

OBJECTIVE

This paper provides important lessons from an international scientific collaboration and provides a useful model for those producing public health estimates in other fields.

DESIGN

Through the compilation and review of published journal articles, United Nations reports, other documents and personal experience we compiled historical information about the estimates and identified potential lessons for other public health estimation efforts.

RESULTS

Through the development of core partnerships with country teams, implementers, demographers, mathematicians, epidemiologists and international organizations, UNAIDS has led a process to develop the capacity of country teams to produce internationally comparable HIV estimates. The guidance provided by these experts has led to refinements in the estimated numbers of people living with HIV, new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths over the past 20 years. A number of important updates to the methods since 1997 resulted in fluctuations in the estimated levels, trends and impact of HIV. The largest correction occurred between the 2005 and 2007 rounds with the additions of household survey data into the models. In 2001 the UNAIDS models at that time estimated there were 40 million people living with HIV. In 2016, improved models estimate there were 30 million (27.6-32.7 million) people living with HIV in 2001.

CONCLUSIONS

Country ownership of the estimation tools has allowed for additional uses of the results than had the results been produced by researchers or a team in Geneva. Guidance from a reference group and input from country teams have led to critical improvements in the models over time. Those changes have improved countries' and stakeholders' understanding of the HIV epidemic.

Constructing the cascade of HIV care: methods for measurement

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Although the concept of the HIV treatment cascade has reached nearly ubiquitous acceptance in international HIV policy and research, methods for estimating it vary drastically. These variations become increasingly important as the focus of the HIV response shifts from emergency response to long-term outcomes and financial and organizational sustainability. We review the history of the cascade and the current literature and develop the first comprehensive typology of cascade scope and methods.

RECENT FINDINGS

We define the cascade scope in terms of both breadth (range from first to final event) and depth (given breadth, number of cascade stages that analyzed). We distinguish cascade measurement according to four dimensions: denominator-denominator linkage (data used for cascade construction are linked at the individual level across stages); denominator-numerator linkage (data are linked at the individual level within each stage); single vs. multiple populations from which data sources are drawn; and longitudinal vs. cross-sectional design.

SUMMARY

Everything else equal, we would prefer broader and deeper cascades, denominator-denominator linkage, denominator-numerator linkage, single population, and longitudinal data over their respective alternatives. Increased investments in population-based cohorts and data linkage are required to complement clinical cohorts for 'broad' longitudinal cascade analyses.

Survival rate of AIDS disease and mortality in HIV-infected patients: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The life expectancy of patients with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) reported by several epidemiological studies is inconsistent. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the survival rate from HIV diagnosis to AIDS onset and from AIDS onset to death.

METHODS

The electronic databases PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus were searched to February 2016. In addition, the reference lists of included studies were checked to identify further references, and the database of the International AIDS Society was also searched. Cohort studies addressing the survival rate in patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS were included in this meta-analysis. The outcomes of interest were the survival rate of patients diagnosed with HIV progressing to AIDS, and the survival rate of patients with AIDS dying from AIDS-related causes with or without highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The survival rate (P) was estimated with 95% confidence intervals based on random-effects models.

RESULTS

In total, 27,862 references were identified, and 57 studies involving 294,662 participants were included in this meta-analysis. Two, 4-, 6-, 8-, 10- and 12-year survival probabilities of progression from HIV diagnosis to AIDS onset were estimated to be 82%, 72%, 64%, 57%, 26% and 19%, respectively. Two, 4-, 6-, 8- and 10-year survival probabilities of progression from AIDS onset to AIDS-related death in patients who received HAART were estimated to be 87%, 86%, 78%, 78%, and 61%, respectively, and 2-, 4- and 6-year survival probabilities of progression from AIDS onset to AIDS-related death in patients who did not receive HAART were estimated to be 48%, 26% and 18%, respectively. Evidence of considerable heterogeneity was found. The majority of the studies had a moderate to high risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

The majority of HIV-positive patients progress to AIDS within the first decade of diagnosis. Most patients who receive HAART will survive for >10 years after the onset of AIDS, whereas the majority of the patients who do not receive HAART die within 2 years of the onset of AIDS.

What Is Required to End the AIDS Epidemic as a Public Health Threat by 2030? The Cost and Impact of the Fast-Track Approach

In 2011 a new Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services for 2015, resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half, in line with the goals of the declaration of the UN High Level Meeting in June 2011. However, the approach suggested a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually—far from the UNAIDS goal of ending AIDS by 2030. In response, UNAIDS has developed the Fast-Track approach that is intended to provide a roadmap to the actions required to achieve this goal. The Fast-Track approach is predicated on a rapid scale-up of focused, effective prevention and treatment services over the next 5 years and then maintaining a high level of programme implementation until 2030. Fast-Track aims to reduce new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% from 2010 to 2030 and proposes a set of biomedical, behavioral and enabling intervention targets for 2020 and 2030 to achieve that goal, including the rapid scale-up initiative for antiretroviral treatment known as 90-90-90. Compared to a counterfactual scenario of constant coverage for all services at early-2015 levels, the Fast-Track approach would avert 18 million HIV infections and 11 million deaths from 2016 to 2030 globally. This paper describes the analysis that produced these targets and the estimated resources needed to achieve them in low- and middle-income countries. It indicates that it is possible to achieve these goals with a significant push to achieve rapid scale-up of key interventions between now and 2020. The annual resources required from all sources would rise to US$7.4Bn in low-income countries, US$8.2Bn in lower middle-income countries and US$10.5Bn in upper-middle-income-countries by 2020 before declining approximately 9% by 2030.

Health outcomes among HIV-positive Latinos initiating antiretroviral therapy in North America versus Central and South America

Introduction

Latinos living with HIV in the Americas share a common ethnic and cultural heritage. In North America, Latinos have a relatively high rate of new HIV infections but lower rates of engagement at all stages of the care continuum, whereas in Latin America antiretroviral therapy (ART) services continue to expand to meet treatment needs. In this analysis, we compare HIV treatment outcomes between Latinos receiving ART in North America versus Latin America.

Methods

HIV-positive adults initiating ART at Caribbean, Central and South America Network for HIV (CCASAnet) sites were compared to Latino patients (based on country of origin or ethnic identity) starting treatment at North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) sites in the United States and Canada between 2000 and 2011. Cox proportional hazards models compared mortality, treatment interruption, antiretroviral regimen change, virologic failure and loss to follow-up between cohorts.

Results

The study included 8400 CCASAnet and 2786 NA-ACCORD patients initiating ART. CCASAnet patients were younger (median 35 vs. 37 years), more likely to be female (27% vs. 20%) and had lower nadir CD4 count (median 148 vs. 195 cells/µL, p<0.001 for all). In multivariable analyses, CCASAnet patients had a higher risk of mortality after ART initiation (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.61; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32 to 1.96), particularly during the first year, but a lower hazard of treatment interruption (AHR: 0.46; 95% CI: 0.42 to 0.50), change to second-line ART (AHR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.51 to 0.62) and virologic failure (AHR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.48 to 0.57).

Conclusions

HIV-positive Latinos initiating ART in Latin America have greater continuity of treatment but are at higher risk of death than Latinos in North America. Factors underlying these differences, such as HIV testing, linkage and access to care, warrant further investigation.

The HIV Treatment Gap: Estimates of the Financial Resources Needed versus Available for Scale-Up of Antiretroviral Therapy in 97 Countries from 2015 to 2020

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines in 2015 recommending that all people living with HIV, regardless of CD4 count, initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) upon diagnosis. However, few studies have projected the global resources needed for rapid scale-up of ART. Under the Health Policy Project, we conducted modeling analyses for 97 countries to estimate eligibility for and numbers on ART from 2015 to 2020, along with the facility-level financial resources required. We compared the estimated financial requirements to estimated funding available.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Current coverage levels and future need for treatment were based on country-specific epidemiological and demographic data. Simulated annual numbers of individuals on treatment were derived from three scenarios: (1) continuation of countries' current policies of eligibility for ART, (2) universal adoption of aspects of the WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and (3) expanded eligibility as per the WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS "90-90-90" ART targets. We modeled uncertainty in the annual resource requirements for antiretroviral drugs, laboratory tests, and facility-level personnel and overhead. We estimate that 25.7 (95% CI 25.5, 26.0) million adults and 1.57 (95% CI 1.55, 1.60) million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain current eligibility plans and increase coverage based on historical rates, which may be ambitious. If countries uniformly adopt aspects of the WHO 2013 guidelines, 26.5 (95% CI 26.0 27.0) million adults and 1.53 (95% CI 1.52, 1.55) million children could be on ART by 2020. Under the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 (95% CI 30.1, 30.7) million adults and 1.68 (95% CI 1.63, 1.73) million children could receive treatment by 2020. The facility-level financial resources needed for scaling up ART in these countries from 2015 to 2020 are estimated to be US$45.8 (95% CI 45.4, 46.2) billion under the current scenario, US$48.7 (95% CI 47.8, 49.6) billion under the WHO 2013 scenario, and US$52.5 (95% CI 51.4, 53.6) billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. After projecting recent external and domestic funding trends, the estimated 6-y financing gap ranges from US$19.8 billion to US$25.0 billion, depending on the costing scenario and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief contribution level, with the gap for ART commodities alone ranging from US$14.0 to US$16.8 billion. The study is limited by excluding above-facility and other costs essential to ART service delivery and by the availability and quality of country- and region-specific data.

CONCLUSIONS

The projected number of people receiving ART across three scenarios suggests that countries are unlikely to meet the 90-90-90 treatment target (81% of people living with HIV on ART by 2020) unless they adopt a test-and-offer approach and increase ART coverage. Our results suggest that future resource needs for ART scale-up are smaller than stated elsewhere but still significantly threaten the sustainability of the global HIV response without additional resource mobilization from domestic or innovative financing sources or efficiency gains. As the world moves towards adopting the WHO 2015 guidelines, advances in technology, including the introduction of lower-cost, highly effective antiretroviral regimens, whose value are assessed here, may prove to be "game changers" that allow more people to be on ART with the resources available.

Temporal distribution of baseline characteristics and association with early mortality among HIV-positive patients at University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria

The first six months of HIV care and treatment are very important for long-term outcome. Early mortality (within 6 months of care initiation) undermines care and treatment goals. This study assessed the temporal distribution in baseline characteristics and early mortality among HIV patients at the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria from 2006-2013. Factors associated with early mortality were also investigated. This was a retrospective analysis of data from 14 857 patients enrolled for care and treatment at the adult antiretroviral clinic of the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. Effects of factors associated with early mortality were summarised using a hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval obtained from Cox proportional hazard regression models. The mean age of the subjects was 36.4 (SD=10.2) years with females being in the majority (68.1%). While patients' demographic characteristics remained virtually the same over time, there was significant decline in the prevalence of baseline opportunistic infections (2006-2007=55.2%; 2011-2013=38.0%). Overall, 460 (3.1%) patients were known to have died within 6 months of enrollment in care/treatment. There was no significant trend in incidence of early mortality. Factors associated with early mortality include: male sex, HIV encephalopathy, low CD4 count (< 50 cells), and anaemia. To reduce early mortality, community education should be promoted, timely access to care and treatment should be facilitated and the health system further strengthened to care for high risk patients.

Trends and Determinants of Antiretroviral Therapy Patient Monitoring Practices in Kenya and Uganda

Introduction

Patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) require routine monitoring to track response to treatment and assess for treatment failure. This study aims to identify gaps in monitoring practices in Kenya and Uganda.

Methods

We conducted a systematic retrospective chart review of adults who initiated ART between 2007 and 2012. We assessed the availability of baseline measurements (CD4 count, weight, and WHO stage) and ongoing CD4 and weight monitoring according to national guidelines in place at the time. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to analyze facility and patient factors associated with meeting monitoring guidelines.

Results

From 2007 to 2012, at least 88% of patients per year in Uganda had a recorded weight at initiation, while in Kenya there was a notable increase from 69% to 90%. Patients with a documented baseline CD4 count increased from 69% to about 80% in both countries. In 2012, 83% and 86% of established patients received the recommended quarterly weight monitoring in Kenya and Uganda, respectively, while semiannual CD4 monitoring was less common (49% in Kenya and 38% in Uganda). Initiating at a more advanced WHO stage was associated with a lower odds of baseline CD4 testing. On-site CD4 analysis capacity was associated with increased odds of CD4 testing at baseline and in the future.

Discussion

Substantial gaps were noted in ongoing CD4 monitoring of patients on ART. Although guidelines have since changed, limited laboratory capacity is likely to remain a significant issue in monitoring patients on ART, with important implications for ensuring quality care.

Mortality and loss to follow-up among HIV-infected persons on long-term antiretroviral therapy in Latin America and the Caribbean

Introduction

Long-term survival of HIV patients after initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) has not been sufficiently described in Latin America and the Caribbean, as compared to other regions. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and associated risk factors for patients enrolled in the Caribbean, Central and South America Network (CCASAnet).

Methods

We assessed time from ART initiation (baseline) to death or LTFU between 2000 and 2014 among ART-naïve adults (≥18 years) from sites in seven countries included in CCASAnet: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico and Peru. Kaplan-Meier techniques were used to estimate the probability of mortality over time. Risk factors for death were assessed using Cox regression models stratified by site and adjusted for sex, baseline age, nadir pre-ART CD4 count, calendar year of ART initiation, clinical AIDS at baseline and type of ART regimen.

Results

A total of 16,996 ART initiators were followed for a median of 3.5 years (interquartile range (IQR): 1.6–6.2). The median age at ART initiation was 36 years (IQR: 30–44), subjects were predominantly male (63%), median CD4 count was 156 cells/µL (IQR: 60–251) and 26% of subjects had clinical AIDS prior to starting ART. Initial ART regimens were predominantly non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor based (86%). The cumulative incidence of LTFU five years after ART initiation was 18.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.5–18.8%). A total of 1582 (9.3%) subjects died; the estimated probability of death one, three and five years after ART initiation was 5.4, 8.3 and 10.3%, respectively. The estimated five-year mortality probability varied substantially across sites, from 3.5 to 14.0%. Risk factors for death were clinical AIDS at baseline (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=1.65 (95% CI 1.47–1.87); p<0.001), lower baseline CD4 (HR=1.95 (95% CI 1.63–2.32) for 50 vs. 350 cells/µL; p<0.001) and older age (HR=1.47 (95% CI 1.29–1.69) for 50 vs. 30 years at ART initiation; p<0.001).

Conclusions

In this large, long-term study of mortality among HIV-positive adults initiating ART in Latin America and the Caribbean, overall estimates of mortality were heterogeneous, generally falling between those reported in high-income countries and sub-Saharan Africa.

Characteristics and outcomes of HIV-infected youth and young adolescents enrolled in HIV care in Kenya

BACKGROUND

The number of youth and adolescents (10-24 years) with HIV infection has increased substantially presenting unique challenges to effective health service delivery.

METHODS

We examined routinely collected patient-level data for antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naive HIV-infected patients, aged 10-24 years, enrolled in care during 2006-2011 at 109 ICAP-supported health facilities in three provinces in Kenya. Loss to follow-up (LTF) was defined as having no clinic visit for 12 months prior to ART initiation (pre-ART) and 6 months for ART patients. Competing risk and Kaplan-Meier estimators were used to calculate LTF and death rates. Sub-distributional and Cox proportional-hazards models were used to identify potential predictors of death and LTF.

RESULTS

Overall 22 832 patients were enrolled in care at 10-24 years of age, 69.5% were aged 20-24 years, and 82% were female. Median CD4(+) cell count was 332 cells/μl (interquartile range 153-561); 70.8% were WHO stage I/II. Young adolescents (10-14 years) had more advanced WHO stage and lower median CD4(+) cell count compared to youth (15-24 years) at enrollment (284 vs. 340 cells/μl; P < 0.0001). Cumulative incidence of LTF and death at 24 months for pre-ART patients was 46.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 45.4-46.8%) and 2.1% (95% CI 1.9-2.3%), respectively. For those on ART, 32.2% (95% CI 31.1-33.3%) were LTF and 3.9% (95% CI 1.7-2.3%) died within 24 months. LTF among pre-ART and ART patients was twice as high among youth compared to young adolescents.

CONCLUSION

LTF of young people with HIV in this Kenyan cohort was high and notably greater among youth compared to young adolescents. Novel strategies targeting these populations are urgently needed to improve retention.

Updates to the spectrum model to estimate key HIV indicators for adults and children

Background:

The Spectrum program is used to estimate key HIV indicators for national programmes. The purpose of the study is to describe the key updates made to Spectrum in the last 2 years to produce the version used in the 2013 global estimates of HIV/AIDS.

Methods:

The United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections regularly reviews new data and information needs and recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions used in Spectrum. The latest data from surveys, census and special studies are used to estimate key parameter values for countries and regions.

Results:

Country-specific life tables prepared by the United National Population Division (UNPD) have been incorporated into Spectrum's demographic projections replacing the model life tables used previously. This update includes revised estimates of non-AIDS life expectancy. Incidence among all adults 15–49 years generated from curve fitting to surveillance and survey data is now split by age using incidence rate ratios derived from Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa Network data for generalized epidemics. Methods for estimating the number of AIDS orphans have been updated to include the changing effects of PMTCT and antiretroviral therapy programmes. Procedures for estimating the number of adults eligible for treatment have been updated to reflect the 2013 WHO guidelines. Program data on AIDS mortality has been used to estimate prevalence trends in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico for the 2013 estimates.

Conclusion:

Spectrum was updated for the 2013 round of HIV estimates in order to support national programmes with improved methods and data to estimating national indicators.

Embracing different approaches to estimating HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality

Background:

Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Murray et al. have both produced sets of estimates for worldwide HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality. Understanding differences in these estimates can strengthen the interpretation of each.

Methods:

We describe differences in the two sets of estimates. Where possible, we have drawn on additional published data to which estimates can be compared.

Findings:

UNAIDS estimates that there were 6 million more people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 2013 (35 million) compared with the Murray et al. estimates (29 million). Murray et al. estimate that new infections and AIDS deaths have declined more gradually than does UNAIDS. Just under one third of the difference in PLHIV is in Africa, where Murray et al. have relied more on estimates of adult mortality trends than on data on survival times. Another third of the difference is in North America, Europe, Central Asia and Australasia. Here Murray et al. estimates of new infections are substantially lower than the number of new HIV/AIDS diagnoses reported by countries, whereas published UNAIDS estimate tend to be greater. The remaining differences are in Latin America and Asia where the data upon which the UNAIDS methods currently rely are more sparse, whereas the mortality data leveraged by Murray et al. may be stronger. In this region, however, anomalies appear to exist between the both sets of estimates and other data.

Interpretation:

Both estimates indicate that approximately 30 million PLHIV and that antiretroviral therapy has driven large reductions in mortality. Both estimates are useful but show instructive discrepancies with additional data sources. We find little evidence to suggest that either set of estimates can be considered systematically more accurate. Further work should seek to build estimates on as wide a base of data as possible.

Estimating future trends in paediatric HIV

Background:

Paediatric treatment continues to lag behind adult treatment and significant efforts are urgently needed to scale up antiretroviral therapy (ART) for children. As efforts to prevent mother-to-child transmission expand, better understanding of future trends and age characterization of the population that will be in need of ART is needed to inform policymakers, as well as drug developers and manufacturers.

Methods:

The Spectrum model was used to estimate the total number of expected paediatric infections by 2020 in 21 priority countries in Africa. Different ART scale-up scenarios were investigated and age characterization of the population was explored.

Results:

By 2020, new paediatric infections in the 21 countries will decline in all the scenarios. Total paediatric infections will also decline in the 21 high-burden countries, but with a differential effect by scenario and age group. On the basis of the optimal scale-up scenario, 1 940 000 [1 760 000–2 120 000] children will be expected to be living with HIV in 2020. The number of children dying of AIDS is notably different in the three models. Assuming optimal scale-up and based on 2013 treatment initiation criteria, the estimates of children to receive ART in the 21 high-burden countries will increase to 1 670 000 (1 500 000–1 800 000).

Conclusion:

By 2020, even under the most optimistic scenarios, a considerable number of children will still be living with HIV. Age-appropriate drugs and formulations will be needed to meet the treatment needs of this vulnerable population. Improved estimates will be critical to guide the development and forecasting of commodities to close the existing paediatric treatment gap.

Balancing the need to rapidly scale-up and improve clinical outcomes in antiretroviral programmes in developing countries: lessons from an Indian programmatic cohort study

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) is highly effective reducing mortality and AIDS-related morbidity in HIV-infected people and at preventing transmission of HIV between individuals. The article reviewed for this commentary reported on data from an Indian ART cohort that showed low median baseline CD4 counts and high rates of mortality and loss to follow-up. Programme implementers in developing regions need to balance the need for rapid scale-up and simultaneous improvement in clinical outcomes. Challenges outlined support HIV treatment strategies that combine improved HIV diagnosis, linkage to care and provision of ART with a strong community-based component.

In vivo administration of ritonavir worsens intestinal damage caused by cyclooxygease inhibitors

The protease inhibitor ritonavir is part of the highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) successfully used in the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection. There is evidence that ritonavir alters intestinal permeability and induces damage to the small intestine. Because HIV infected patients taking HAART are at high risk for developing cardiovascular complications, there might be a need for the use of low dose of aspirin (ASA) to prevent ischemic events. Similarly, long term survival exposes HIV infected persons to detrimental interactions of ritonavir with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). In the present work we tested whether ritonavir worsens intestinal injury caused by NSAIDs and ASA. C57BL6 mice were treated for 25 days with ritonavir and for a further 5 days with the combination of ritonavir plus ASA or ritonavir plus naproxen. In a second set of experiments C57BL6 mice were cotreated with ritonavir plus misoprostol, a PGE1 analog. We found that ritonavir administration caused intestinal damage and its co-administration with naproxen or ASA exacerbated the severity of injury and intestinal inflammation, as assessed by measuring haematocrit, MPO, mucosal levels of PGE2 and mRNA levels of iNOS, MCP-1 and VLA-1. Co-administration of misoprostol protected against intestinal damage induced by naproxen and ritonavir. In conclusion we demonstrated that ritonavir causes intestinal damage and that its association with NSAIDs or ASA worsens the damage caused by COX-inhibitors. Misoprostol rescues from intestinal damage caused by ritonavir. Further studies are need to clarify whether this observation has a clinical readout.

Exploring the population-level impact of antiretroviral treatment: the influence of baseline intervention context

OBJECTIVE

To compare the potential population-level impact of expanding antiretroviral treatment (ART) in HIV epidemics concentrated among female sex workers (FSWs) and clients, with and without existing condom-based FSW interventions.

DESIGN

Mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission in south India.

METHODS

We simulated HIV epidemics in three districts to assess the 10-year impact of existing ART programs (ART eligibility at CD4 cell count ≤350) beyond that achieved with high condom use, and the incremental benefit of expanding ART by either increasing ART eligibility, improving access to care, or prioritizing ART expansion to FSWs/clients. Impact was estimated in the total population (including FSWs and clients).

RESULTS

In the presence of existing condom-based interventions, existing ART programs (medium-to-good coverage) were predicted to avert 11-28% of remaining HIV infections between 2014 and 2024. Increasing eligibility to all risk groups prevented an incremental 1-15% over existing ART programs, compared with 29-53% when maximizing access to all risk groups. If there was no condom-based intervention, and only poor ART coverage, then expanding ART prevented a larger absolute number but a smaller relative fraction of HIV infections for every additional person-year of ART. Across districts and baseline interventions, for every additional person-year of treatment, prioritizing access to FSWs was most efficient (and resource saving), followed by prioritizing access to FSWs and clients.

CONCLUSION

The relative and absolute benefit of ART expansion depends on baseline condom use, ART coverage, and epidemic size. In south India, maximizing FSWs' access to care, followed by maximizing clients' access are the most efficient ways to expand ART for HIV prevention, across baseline intervention context.

Methodological and policy limitations of quantifying the saving of lives: a case study of the Global Fund's approach

David McCoy and colleagues critique the dominance of "lives saved" models of assessing the impact of health programs, using The Global Fund as a case study. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Cytomegalovirus viremia in Thai HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: prevalence and associated mortality

BACKGROUND

Prevalence and risk factors of cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in developing countries are understudied.

METHODS

We measured CMV DNA in stored plasma specimens of 293 Thai HIV patients starting ART at CD4 counts <200 cells/mm(3). We examined Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) of 24 months mortality and new AIDS-defining illness (ADI).

RESULTS

Of 293 patients, 159 (54.3%) were male. The median age was 33 years. The median baseline CD4 count was 82 cells/mm(3), and the median HIV-1 RNA was 4.9 log10 copies/mL. In total, 273 (93.2%) patients started potent combination ART, and 20 (6.8%) started dual nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) therapy. CMV DNA was detected in 77 of 293 patients (26.3%) at baseline, and 9 of 199 patients with available specimen (4.5%) after 6 months of ART. The median CMV DNA was 548 copies/mL (interquartile range [IQR], 129-3849) at baseline and 114 copies/mL (IQR, 75-1099) at 6 months. In univariate analysis, death was associated with baseline CDC stage C, hemoglobin <10 g/dL, lower CD4 count, and CMV viremia. In multivariate analysis, only CMV DNA >500 copies/mL was significantly associated with mortality (HR: 7.28; 95% CI, 1.32-40.29, P = .023). CD4 count was the only variable associated with new ADI (HR: 0.70 per 50 CD4 cells increase; 95% CI, .49-.997, P = .048).

CONCLUSIONS

In these Thai patients with advanced HIV disease, CMV viremia was frequent, and CMV DNA >500 copies/mL predicted increased mortality despite ART initiation. This calls for increased attention to screening of active CMV infection in advanced HIV patients in developing countries. Trials assessing preemptive anti-CMV therapy may be warranted.