Small rodent population cycles and plants - after 70 years, where do we go?

Small rodent population cycles characterise northern ecosystems, and the cause of these cycles has been a long-lasting central topic in ecology, with trophic interactions currently considered the most plausible cause. While some researchers have rejected plant-herbivore interactions as a cause of rodent cycles, others have continued to research their potential roles. Here, we present an overview of whether plants can cause rodent population cycles, dividing this idea into four different hypotheses with different pathways of plant impacts and related assumptions. Our systematic review of the existing literature identified 238 studies from 150 publications. This evidence base covered studies from the temperate biome to the tundra, but the studies were scattered across study systems and only a few specific topics were addressed in a replicated manner. Quantitative effects of rodents on vegetation was the best studied topic, and our evidence base suggests such that such effects may be most pronounced in winter. However, the regrowth of vegetation appears to take place too rapidly to maintain low rodent population densities over several years. The lack of studies prevented assessment of time lags in the qualitative responses of vegetation to rodent herbivory. We conclude that the literature is currently insufficient to discard with confidence any of the four potential hypotheses for plant-rodent cycles discussed herein. While new methods allow analyses of plant quality across more herbivore-relevant spatial scales than previously possible, we argue that the best way forward to rejecting any of the rodent-plant hypotheses is testing specific predictions of dietary variation. Indeed, all identified hypotheses make explicit assumptions on how rodent diet taxonomic composition and quality will change across the cycle. Passing this bottleneck could help pinpoint where, when, and how plant-herbivore interactions have - or do not have - plausible effects on rodent population dynamics.

A Time for Every Purpose: Using Time-Dependent Sensitivity Analysis to Help Understand and Manage Dynamic Ecological Systems

AbstractSensitivity analysis is often used to help understand and manage ecological systems by assessing how a constant change in vital rates or other model parameters might affect the management outcome. This allows the manager to identify the most favorable course of action. However, realistic changes are often localized in time-for example, a short period of culling leads to a temporary increase in the mortality rate over the period. Hence, knowing when to act may be just as important as knowing what to act on. In this article, we introduce the method of time-dependent sensitivity analysis (TDSA) that simultaneously addresses both questions. We illustrate TDSA using three case studies: transient dynamics in static disease transmission networks, disease dynamics in a reservoir species with seasonal life history events, and endogenously driven population cycles in herbivorous invertebrate forest pests. We demonstrate how TDSA often provides useful biological insights, which are understandable on hindsight but would not have been easily discovered without the help of TDSA. However, as a caution, we also show how TDSA can produce results that mainly reflect uncertain modeling choices and are therefore potentially misleading. We provide guidelines to help users maximize the utility of TDSA while avoiding pitfalls.

Phenological mismatch affects individual fitness and population growth in the winter moth

Climate change can severely impact species that depend on temporary resources by inducing phenological mismatches between consumer and resource seasonal timing. In the winter moth, warmer winters caused eggs to hatch before their food source, young oak leaves, became available. This phenological mismatch changed the selection on the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate. However, we know little about the fine-scale fitness consequences of phenological mismatch at the individual level and how this mismatch affects population dynamics in the winter moth. To determine the fitness consequences of mistimed egg hatching relative to timing of oak budburst, we quantified survival and pupation weight in a feeding experiment. We found that mismatch greatly increased mortality rates of freshly hatched caterpillars, as well as affecting caterpillar growth and development time. We then investigated whether these individual fitness consequences have population-level impacts by estimating the effect of phenological mismatch on population dynamics, using our long-term data (1994-2021) on relative winter moth population densities at four locations in The Netherlands. We found a significant effect of mismatch on population density with higher population growth rates in years with a smaller phenological mismatch. Our results indicate that climate change-induced phenological mismatch can incur severe individual fitness consequences that can impact population density in the wild.

A time for every purpose: using time-dependent sensitivity analysis to help understand and manage dynamic ecological systems

Sensitivity analysis is often used to help understand and manage ecological systems, by assessing how a constant change in vital rates or other model parameters might affect the management outcome. This allows the manager to identify the most favorable course of action. However, realistic changes are often localized in time-for example, a short period of culling leads to a temporary increase in the mortality rate over the period. Hence, knowing when to act may be just as important as knowing what to act upon. In this article, we introduce the method of time-dependent sensitivity analysis (TDSA) that simultaneously addresses both questions. We illustrate TDSA using three case studies: transient dynamics in static disease transmission networks, disease dynamics in a reservoir species with seasonal life-history events, and endogenously-driven population cycles in herbivorous invertebrate forest pests. We demonstrate how TDSA often provides useful biological insights, which are understandable on hindsight but would not have been easily discovered without the help of TDSA. However, as a caution, we also show how TDSA can produce results that mainly reflect uncertain modeling choices and are therefore potentially misleading. We provide guidelines to help users maximize the utility of TDSA while avoiding pitfalls.

Cold winters drive consistent and spatially synchronous 8-year population cycles of cabbage stem flea beetle

Population cycles have been observed in mammals as well as insects, but consistent population cycling has rarely been documented in agroecosystems and never for a beetle. We analysed the long-term population patterns of the cabbage stem flea beetle Psylliodes chrysocephala in winter oilseed rape over 50 years. Psylliodes chrysocephala larval density from 3045 winter oilseed rape fields in southern Sweden showed strong 8-year population cycles in regional mean density. Fluctuations in larval density were synchronous over time across five subregional populations. Subregional mean environmental variables explained 90.6% of the synchrony in P. chrysocephala populations at the 7-11 year time-scale. The number of days below -10°C showed strong anti-phase coherence with larval densities in the 7-11 year time-scale, such that more cold days resulted in low larval densities. High levels of the North Atlantic Oscillation weather system are coherent and anti-phase with cold weather in Scania, Sweden. At the field-scale, later crop planting date and more cold winter days were associated with decreased overwintering larval density. Warmer autumn temperatures, resulting in greater larval accumulated degree days early in the season, increased overwintering larval density. Despite variation in environmental conditions and crop management, 8-year cycles persisted for cabbage stem flea beetle throughout the 50 years of data collection. Moran effects, influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation weather patterns, are the primary drivers of this cycle and synchronicity. Insect pest data collected in commercial agriculture fields is an abundant source of long-term data. We show that an agricultural pest can have the same periodic population cycles observed in perennial and unmanaged ecosystems. This unexpected finding has implications for sustainable pest management in agriculture and shows the value of long-term pest monitoring projects as an additional source of time-series data to untangle the drivers of population cycles.

The consequence of leaf life span to virus infection of herbivorous insects

Many herbivorous insects die of pathogen infections, though the role of plant traits in promoting the persistence of these pathogens as an indirect interaction is poorly understood. We tested whether winter leaf retention of bush lupines (Lupinus arboreus) promotes the persistence of a nucleopolyhedroviruses, thereby increasing the infection risk of caterpillars (Arctia virginalis) feeding on the foliage during spring. We also investigated whether winter leaf retention reduces viral exposure of younger caterpillars that live on the ground, as leaf retention prevents contaminated leaves from reaching the ground. We surveyed winter leaf retention of 248 lupine bush canopies across twelve sites and examined how it related to caterpillar infection risk, herbivory, and inflorescence density. We also manipulated the amount of lupine litter available to young caterpillars in a feeding experiment to emulate litterfall exposure in the field. Greater retention of contaminated leaves from the previous season increased infection rates of caterpillars in early spring. Higher infection rates reduced herbivory and increased plant inflorescence density by summer. Young caterpillars exposed to less litterfall were more likely to starve to death but less likely to die from infection, further suggesting foliage mediated exposure to viruses. We speculate that longer leaf life span may be an unrecognized trait that indirectly mediates top-down control of herbivores by facilitating epizootics.

Native generalist natural enemies and an introduced specialist parasitoid together control an invasive forest insect

Specialized natural enemies have long been used to implement the biological control of invasive insects. Although research tracking populations following biological control introductions has traditionally focused on the impact of the introduced agent, recent studies and reviews have reflected an appreciation of the complex interactions of the introduced specialist agents with native generalist natural enemies. These interactions can be neutral, antagonistic, or complementary. Here we studied the invasive defoliator winter moth (Operophtera brumata) in the Northeast USA to investigate the role of native, generalist pupal predators along with the introduced, host-specific parasitoid Cyzenis albicans. Prior research in Canada has shown that predation of winter moth pupae from native generalists increased after C. albicans was established as a biological control agent. To explain this phenomenon, the following hypotheses were suggested: (H₁ ) parasitoids suppress the winter moth population to a density that can be maintained by generalist predators, (H₂ ) unparasitized pupae are preferred by predators and therefore experience higher mortality rates, or (H₃ ) C. albicans sustains higher predator populations throughout the year more effectively than winter moth alone. We tested these hypotheses by deploying winter moth pupae over 6 years spanning 2005 to 2017 and by modeling pupal predation rates as a function of winter moth density and C. albicans establishment. We also compared predation rates of unparasitized and parasitized pupae and considered additional mortality by a native pupal parasitoid. We found support for the first hypothesis; we detected both temporal and spatial density dependence, but only in the latter years of the study when winter moth densities were low. We found no evidence for the latter two hypotheses. Our findings suggest that pupal predators have a regulatory effect on winter moth populations only after populations have been reduced, presumably by the introduction of the host-specific parasitoid C. albicans.

Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae): Current Status of Biology, Ecology, and Management in Europe with Notes from North America

The European Spongy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), is an abundant species found in oak woods in Central and Southern Europe, the Near East, and North Africa and is an important economic pest. It is a voracious eater and can completely defoliate entire trees; repeated severe defoliation can add to other stresses, such as weather extremes or human activities. Lymantria dispar is most destructive in its larval stage (caterpillars), stripping away foliage from a broad variety of trees (>500 species). Caterpillar infestation is an underestimated problem; medical literature reports that established populations of caterpillars may cause health problems to people and animals. Inflammatory reactions may occur in most individuals after exposure to setae, independent of previous exposure. Currently, chemical and mechanical methods, natural predators, and silvicultural practices are included for the control of this species. Various insecticides have been used for its control, often through aerial sprayings, which negatively affect biodiversity, frequently fail, and are inappropriate for urban/recreational areas. However, bioinsecticides based on various microorganisms (e.g., entomopathogenic viruses, bacteria, and fungi) as well as technologies such as mating disruption using sex pheromone traps have replaced insecticides for the management of L. dispar.

Effect of Metabolic Changes in Aphis gossypii-Damaged Cotton Plants on Oviposition Preference and Larval Development of Subsequent Helicoverpa armigera

Aphis gossypii and Helicoverpa armigera are two important agricultural pests in cotton plants. However, whether early colonization of A. gossypii affects subsequent H. armigera is unknown. We implemented ecological experiments to reveal that A. gossypii-damaged cotton plants [Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) and non-Bt] had a significant avoidance effect on the oviposition preference of H. armigera adults. However, A. gossypii-damaged cotton plants (non-Bt) increased the weight and pupation rate and reduced the mortality of H. armigera larvae. Transcriptomic and metabolomic analyses showed that 13 and 9 genes were significantly upregulated to be involved in salicylic acid (SA) and indole acetic acid (IAA) biosynthesis, and SA and IAA contents were significantly increased, respectively. However, 15 genes involved in jasmonic acid (JA) biosynthesis were significantly downregulated as a result of the antagonism of SA and JA. Moreover, there was significant upregulation in multiple genes involved in the biosynthesis of l-histidine, fructose, maltotetraose, melezitose, lecithin, stearidonic acid, and mannitol, in which metabolites were confirmed to promote the growth and development of H. armigera. Our study is a reference for investigating the evolutionary relationships and provides insights into implementing effective insect biocontrol between H. armigera and A. gossypii.

Host phenology regulates parasite-host demographic cycles and eco-evolutionary feedbacks

Parasite-host interactions can drive periodic population dynamics when parasites overexploit host populations. The timing of host seasonal activity, or host phenology, determines the frequency and demographic impact of parasite-host interactions, which may govern whether parasites sufficiently overexploit hosts to drive population cycles. We describe a mathematical model of a monocyclic, obligate-killer parasite system with seasonal host activity to investigate the consequences of host phenology on host-parasite dynamics. The results suggest that parasites can reach the densities necessary to destabilize host dynamics and drive cycling as they adapt, but only in some phenological scenarios such as environments with short seasons and synchronous host emergence. Furthermore, only parasite lineages that are sufficiently adapted to phenological scenarios with short seasons and synchronous host emergence can achieve the densities necessary to overexploit hosts and produce population cycles. Host-parasite cycles also generate an eco-evolutionary feedback that slows parasite adaptation to the phenological environment as rare advantageous phenotypes can be driven extinct due to a population bottleneck depending on when they are introduced in the cycle. The results demonstrate that seasonal environments can drive population cycling in a restricted set of phenological patterns and provide further evidence that the rate of adaptive evolution depends on underlying ecological dynamics.

Sex ratio in the mother's environment affects offspring population dynamics: maternal effects on population regulation

Classic population regulation theories usually concern the influence of immediate factors on current populations, but studies investigating the effect of parental environment factors on their offspring populations are scarce. The maternal environments can affect offspring life-history traits across generations, which may affect population dynamics and be a mechanism of population regulation. In cyclical parthenogens, sexual reproduction is typically linked with dormancy, thereby providing a negative feedback to population growth. In this study, we manipulated population sex ratios in the mother's environment to investigate whether this factor affected future population dynamics by regulating offspring sexual reproduction in the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus. Compared with females in male-biased environments, those in female-biased environments produced fewer mictic (sexual) offspring, and their amictic (asexual) offspring also produced a lower proportion of mictic females at a gradient of population densities. Moreover, populations that were manipulated under male-biased conditions showed significantly smaller population sizes than those under female-biased conditions. Our results indicated that in cyclical parthenogens, mothers could adjust the sexual reproduction of their offspring in response to the current population sex ratio, thus providing fine-scale regulation of population dynamics in addition to population density.

Anticipating B. sempervirens viability in front of C. perspectalis outbreaks, fire, and drought disturbances

Forest ecosystems face an increasing pressure of insect pest outbreaks due to changes in land-use, new climatic conditions, and the arrival of new invasive alien species. Also, insect outbreaks may interact with other shifting disturbances such as fire and drought, that eventually may boost the impacts of pests on forest ecosystems. In the case of alien species, the lack of long-term data and their rapid spread challenges their study and require appropriate new management strategies to cope with them. Here we studied the case of boxwoods (Buxus sempervirens) in Southern Pyrenees under the pressure of the invasive insect box tree moth (Cydalima perspectalis), fire, and drought events. We projected the future of boxwoods through the development of a spatially explicit simulation model and its implementation under different climatic and ecological scenarios. The results showed an initial boxwood decline due to C. perspectalis fast spread but a later stabilization of the population resulting from a fluctuating dynamic. Climate change is expected to reduce overall insect habitat suitability and future negative impacts on boxwoods. Furthermore, boxwood drought-induced mortality and burning will increase under new climatic conditions. Interaction between drought and insect pest conditioning regeneration after defoliation were negligible in our analyses. Boxwood decline was anticipated to be more notorious in locations under 800 m a.s.l. and in habitats where the species dominates the forest understory, while boxwood in open shrub forest types typical of higher elevations will be less endangered. Our results provide valuable information for boxwood and C. perspectalis management in a context of joint disturbance impacts and contribute to a better identification of the role of forest disturbances and their interactions.

Parasite dynamics in North American monarchs predicted by host density and seasonal migratory culling

Insect-pathogen dynamics can show seasonal and inter-annual variation that covaries with fluctuations in insect abundance and climate. Long-term analyses are especially needed to track parasite dynamics in migratory insects, in part because their vast habitat ranges and high mobility might dampen local effects of density and climate on infection prevalence. Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) are commonly infected with the protozoan Ophryocystis elektroscirrha (OE). Because this parasite lowers monarch survival and flight performance, and because migratory monarchs have experienced declines in recent decades, it is important to understand patterns and drivers of infection. 3. Here we compiled data on OE infection spanning 50 years, from wild monarchs sampled in the USA, Canada, and Mexico during summer breeding, fall migrating, and overwintering periods. We examined eastern versus western North American monarchs separately, to ask how abundance estimates, resource availability, climate, and breeding season length impact infection trends. We further assessed the intensity of migratory culling, which occurs when infected individuals are removed from the population during migration. 4. Average infection prevalence was four times higher in western compared to eastern subpopulations. In eastern North America, the proportion of infected monarchs increased three-fold since the mid-2000s. In the western region, the proportion of infected monarchs declined sharply from 2000-2015, and increased thereafter. For both eastern and western subpopulations, years with greater summer adult abundance predicted greater infection prevalence, indicating that transmission increases with host breeding density. Environmental variables (temperature and NDVI) were not associated with changes in infected adults. We found evidence for migratory culling of infected butterflies, based on declines in parasitism during fall migration. We estimated that tens of millions fewer monarchs reach overwintering sites in Mexico as a result of OE, highlighting the need to consider the parasite as a potential threat to the monarch population. 5. Increases in infection among eastern North American monarchs post-2002 suggest that changes to the host's ecology or environment have intensified parasite transmission. Further work is needed to examine the degree to which human practices, such as mass caterpillar rearing and the widespread planting of exotic milkweed, have contributed to this trend.

Asian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) populations: Tolerance of eggs to extreme winter temperatures

Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar (GM) is a polyphagous insect and one of the most significant pests in the forests of Eurasia and North America (U.S. and Canada). Accurate information on GM cold-hardiness is needed to improve methods for the prediction of population outbreaks, as well as for forecasting possible GM range displacements due to climate change. As a result of laboratory and field studies, we found that the lower lethal temperature (at which all eggs die) range from -29.0 °C to -29.9 °C for three studied populations of L. dispar asiatica, and no egg survived cooling to -29.9 °C. These limits agree, to within one degree, with the previously established cold-hardiness limits of the European subspecies L. dispar, which is also found in North America. This coincidence indicates that the lower lethal temperature of L. dispar is conservative. Thus, we found that the Siberian populations of GM inhabit an area where winter temperatures go beyond the limits of egg physiological tolerance, because temperatures often fall below -30 °C. Apparently, it is due to the flexibility of ovipositional behavior that L. dispar asiatica survives in Siberia: the lack of physiological tolerance of eggs is compensated by choosing warm biotopes for oviposition. One of the most important factors contributing to the survival of GM eggs in Siberia is the stability of the snow cover.

Altered precipitation dynamics lead to a shift in herbivore dynamical regime

The interaction between endogenous dynamics and exogenous environmental variation is central to population dynamics. Although investigations into the effects of changing mean climate are widespread, changing patterns of variation in environmental forcing also affect dynamics in complex ways. Using wavelet and time series analyses, we identify a regime shift in the dynamics of a moth species in California from shorter to longer period oscillations over a 34-year census, and contemporaneous changes in regional precipitation dynamics. Simulations support the hypothesis that shifting precipitation dynamics drove changes in moth dynamics, possibly due to stochastic resonance with delayed density-dependence. The observed shift in climate dynamics and the interaction with endogenous dynamics mean that predicting future population dynamics will require information on both climatic shifts and their interaction with endogenous density-dependence, a combination that is rarely available. Consequently, models based on historical data may be unable to predict future population dynamics.

Host permissiveness to baculovirus influences time-dependent immune responses and fitness costs

Insects possess specific immune responses to protect themselves from different types of pathogens. Activation of immune cascades can inflict significant developmental costs on the surviving host. To characterize infection kinetics in a surviving host that experiences baculovirus inoculation, it is crucial to determine the timing of immune responses. Here, we investigated time-dependent immune responses and developmental costs elicited by inoculations from each of two wild-type baculoviruses, Autographa californica multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV) and Helicoverpa zea single nucleopolyhedrovirus (HzSNPV), in their common host H. zea. As H. zea is a semi-permissive host of AcMNPV and fully permissive to HzSNPV, we hypothesized there are differential immune responses and fitness costs associated with resisting infection by each virus species. Newly molted 4th-instar larvae that were inoculated with a low dose (LD₁₅ ) of either virus showed significantly higher hemolymph FAD-glucose dehydrogenase (GLD) activities compared to the corresponding control larvae. Hemolymph phenoloxidase (PO) activity, protein concentration and total hemocyte numbers were not increased, but instead were lower than in control larvae at some time points post-inoculation. Larvae that survived either virus inoculation exhibited reduced pupal weight; survivors inoculated with AcMNPV grew slower than the control larvae, while survivors of HzSNPV pupated earlier than control larvae. Our results highlight the complexity of immune responses and fitness costs associated with combating different baculoviruses.

Plant carbohydrate content limits performance and lipid accumulation of an outbreaking herbivore

Locusts are major intermittent threats to food security and the ecological factors determining where and when these occur remain poorly understood. For many herbivores, obtaining adequate protein from plants is a key challenge. We tested how the dietary protein : non-structural carbohydrate ratio (p : c) affects the developmental and physiological performance of 4th-5th instar nymphs of the South American locust, Schistocerca cancellata, which has recently resurged in Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. Field marching locusts preferred to feed on high carbohydrate foods. Field-collected juveniles transferred to the laboratory selected artificial diets or local plants with low p : c. On single artificial diets, survival rate increased as foods became more carbohydrate-biased. On single local plants, growth only occurred on the plant with the lowest p : c. Most local plants had p : c ratios substantially higher than optimal, demonstrating that field marching locusts must search for adequate carbohydrate or their survival and growth will be carbohydrate-limited. Total body lipids increased as dietary p : c decreased on both artificial and plant diets, and the low lipid contents of field-collected nymphs suggest that obtaining adequate carbohydrate may pose a strong limitation on migration for S. cancellata. Anthropogenic influences such as conversions of forests to pastures, may increase carbohydrate availability and promote outbreaks and migration of some locusts.

Plant phylogeny drives arboreal caterpillar assemblages across the Holarctic

Assemblages of insect herbivores are structured by plant traits such as nutrient content, secondary metabolites, physical traits, and phenology. Many of these traits are phylogenetically conserved, implying a decrease in trait similarity with increasing phylogenetic distance of the host plant taxa. Thus, a metric of phylogenetic distances and relationships can be considered a proxy for phylogenetically conserved plant traits and used to predict variation in herbivorous insect assemblages among co-occurring plant species.Using a Holarctic dataset of exposed-feeding and shelter-building caterpillars, we aimed at showing how phylogenetic relationships among host plants explain compositional changes and characteristics of herbivore assemblages.Our plant-caterpillar network data derived from plot-based samplings at three different continents included >28,000 individual caterpillar-plant interactions. We tested whether increasing phylogenetic distance of the host plants leads to a decrease in caterpillar assemblage overlap. We further investigated to what degree phylogenetic isolation of a host tree species within the local community explains abundance, density, richness, and mean specialization of its associated caterpillar assemblage.The overlap of caterpillar assemblages decreased with increasing phylogenetic distance among the host tree species. Phylogenetic isolation of a host plant within the local plant community was correlated with lower richness and mean specialization of the associated caterpillar assemblages. Phylogenetic isolation had no effect on caterpillar abundance or density. The effects of plant phylogeny were consistent across exposed-feeding and shelter-building caterpillars.Our study reveals that distance metrics obtained from host plant phylogeny are useful predictors to explain compositional turnover among hosts and host-specific variations in richness and mean specialization of associated insect herbivore assemblages in temperate broadleaf forests. As phylogenetic information of plant communities is becoming increasingly available, further large-scale studies are needed to investigate to what degree plant phylogeny structures herbivore assemblages in other biomes and ecosystems.

Separate seasons of infection and reproduction can lead to multi-year population cycles

Many host-pathogen systems are characterized by a temporal order of disease transmission and host reproduction. For example, this can be due to pathogens infecting certain life cycle stages of insect hosts; transmission occurring during the aggregation of migratory birds; or plant diseases spreading between planting seasons. We develop a simple discrete-time epidemic model with density-dependent transmission and disease affecting host fecundity and survival. The model shows sustained multi-annual cycles in host population abundance and disease prevalence, both in the presence and absence of density dependence in host reproduction, for large horizontal transmissibility, imperfect vertical transmission, high virulence, and high reproductive capability. The multi-annual cycles emerge as invariant curves in a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation. They are caused by a carry-over effect, because the reproductive fitness of an individual can be reduced by virulent effects due to infection in an earlier season. As the infection process is density-dependent but shows an effect only in a later season, this produces delayed density dependence typical for second-order oscillations. The temporal separation between the infection and reproduction season is crucial in driving the cycles; if these processes occur simultaneously as in differential equation models, there are no sustained oscillations. Our model highlights the destabilizing effects of inter-seasonal feedbacks and is one of the simplest epidemic models that can generate population cycles.

Influence of Bacillus thuringiensis application timing on population dynamics of gypsy moth in Mediterranean cork oak forests

BACKGROUND

The gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, is one of the main pests of oak forests worldwide and causes extensive defoliation during its periodic outbreaks. In the Mediterranean region, control of gypsy moth populations in cork oak forests is based on application of Bacillus thuringiensis serovar kurstaki (Btk) formulations. This research investigated the effects of Btk applications carried out in two different population development phases on gypsy moth population dynamics. With this aim, temporal and spatial fluctuation patterns of L. dispar egg density were monitored in cork oak forests treated with Btk applications from 2004 to 2009 in Sardinia (Italy).

RESULTS

Applications undertaken during the progradation and culmination phases protected the oak canopies equally in the year of application, leading to a similar decrease in pest population density in the following year. However, the medium-term effectiveness of Btk differed between the two application timings, because only applications in the culmination phase caused a gradual decrease in L. dispar infestations throughout subsequent years. By contrast, when the application was undertaken during the progradation phase, population density increased again after 2-3 years. Moreover, Btk applications in the culmination phase reduced significantly the number of years in which gypsy moth density was damaging compared with those done in progradation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that Btk applications during the culmination phase were more effective than those in the progradation period, because application in the latter case did not suppress the population, but only postponed the outbreak peak by 2-3 years. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Temporal variation in spatial genetic structure during population outbreaks: Distinguishing among different potential drivers of spatial synchrony

Spatial synchrony is a common characteristic of spatio-temporal population dynamics across many taxa. While it is known that both dispersal and spatially autocorrelated environmental variation (i.e., the Moran effect) can synchronize populations, the relative contributions of each, and how they interact, are generally unknown. Distinguishing these mechanisms and their effects on synchrony can help us to better understand spatial population dynamics, design conservation and management strategies, and predict climate change impacts. Population genetic data can be used to tease apart these two processes as the spatio-temporal genetic patterns they create are expected to be different. A challenge, however, is that genetic data are often collected at a single point in time, which may introduce context-specific bias. Spatio-temporal sampling strategies can be used to reduce bias and to improve our characterization of the drivers of spatial synchrony. Using spatio-temporal analyses of genotypic data, our objective was to identify the relative support for these two mechanisms to the spatial synchrony in population dynamics of the irruptive forest insect pest, the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), in Quebec (Canada). AMOVA, cluster analysis, isolation by distance, and sPCA were used to characterize spatio-temporal genomic variation using 1,370 SBW larvae sampled over four years (2012-2015) and genotyped at 3,562 SNP loci. We found evidence of overall weak spatial genetic structure that decreased from 2012 to 2015 and a genetic diversity homogenization among the sites. We also found genetic evidence of a long-distance dispersal event over >140 km. These results indicate that dispersal is the key mechanism involved in driving population synchrony of the outbreak. Early intervention management strategies that aim to control source populations have the potential to be effective through limiting dispersal. However, the timing of such interventions relative to outbreak progression is likely to influence their probability of success.

Genetic evidence of broad spreading of Lymantria dispar in the West Siberian Plain

Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. 1758 (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) is one of the most dangerous forest pests of the Holarctic region. Outbreaks of gypsy moth populations lead to significant defoliation of local forests. Within the vast territory of the West Siberian Plain, we noted the outbreak front movement in the north-east direction with a speed 100-200 km per year. The reason for the outbreak's movement is still unclear because L. dispar females are characterised by limited flight ability, which is not enough to support that movement per se. Herein, we analysed the mtDNA divergence pattern among L. dispar populations collected from the vast territory of the West Siberian Plain to determine the boundaries of populations and reveal the effect of the outbreak's front movement on mtDNA patterns of populations. The 590-bp region of the cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene of the mitochondrial genome was sequenced for 220 specimens that were collected from 18 localities along a transect line (~ 1400 km). Our results clearly show that the gypsy moth populations of the vast Siberian territory are not subdivided. This result can be explained by extensive genetic exchange among local populations. Taking into account that the flight ability of L. dispar females is rather limited, we suggest that spreading occurs through ballooning of early instar larvae. This hypothesis was confirmed by the coincidence of the outbreaks' movement direction with that of the dominant winds, complemented by the observation of ballooned larvae far from a forest edge.

Population cycles: generalities, exceptions and remaining mysteries

Population cycles are one of nature's great mysteries. For almost a hundred years, innumerable studies have probed the causes of cyclic dynamics in snowshoe hares, voles and lemmings, forest Lepidoptera and grouse. Even though cyclic species have very different life histories, similarities in mechanisms related to their dynamics are apparent. In addition to high reproductive rates and density-related mortality from predators, pathogens or parasitoids, other characteristics include transgenerational reduced reproduction and dispersal with increasing-peak densities, and genetic similarity among populations. Experiments to stop cyclic dynamics and comparisons of cyclic and noncyclic populations provide some understanding but both reproduction and mortality must be considered. What determines variation in amplitude and periodicity of population outbreaks remains a mystery.

Spatial synchrony in sub-arctic geometrid moth outbreaks reflects dispersal in larval and adult life cycle stages

Spatial synchrony in population dynamics can be caused by dispersal or spatially correlated variation in environmental factors like weather (Moran effect). Distinguishing between these mechanisms is challenging for natural populations, and the study of dispersal-induced synchrony in particular has been dominated by theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the evidence for dispersal as a cause of meso-scale (distances of tens of kilometres) spatial synchrony in natural populations of the two cyclic geometrid moths Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic mountain birch forest in northern Norway. To infer the role of dispersal in geometrid synchrony, we applied three complementary approaches, namely estimating the effect of design-based dispersal barriers (open sea) on synchrony, comparing the strength of synchrony between E. autumnata (winged adults) and the less dispersive O. brumata (wingless adult females), and relating the directionality (anisotropy) of synchrony to the predominant wind directions during spring, when geometrid larvae engage in windborne dispersal (ballooning). The estimated effect of dispersal barriers on synchrony was almost three times stronger for the less dispersive O. brumata than E. autumnata. Inter-site synchrony was also weakest for O. brumata at all spatial lags. Both observations argue for adult dispersal as an important synchronizing mechanism at the spatial scales considered. Further, synchrony in both moth species showed distinct anisotropy and was most spatially extensive parallel to the east-west axis, coinciding closely to the overall dominant wind direction. This argues for a synchronizing effect of windborne larval dispersal. Congruent with most extensive dispersal along the east-west axis, E. autumnata also showed evidence for a travelling wave moving southwards at a speed of 50-80 km/year. Our results suggest that dispersal processes can leave clear signatures in both the strength and directionality of synchrony in field populations, and highlight wind-driven dispersal as promising avenue for further research on spatial synchrony in natural insect populations.

Climate Change and Phenological Mismatch in Trophic Interactions Among Plants, Insects, and Vertebrates

Phenological mismatch results when interacting species change the timing of regularly repeated phases in their life cycles at different rates. We review whether this continuously ongoing phenomenon, also known as trophic asynchrony, is becoming more common under ongoing rapid climate change. In antagonistic trophic interactions, any mismatch will have negative impacts for only one of the species, whereas in mutualistic interactions, both partners are expected to suffer. Trophic mismatch is therefore expected to last for evolutionarily short periods, perhaps only a few seasons, adding to the difficulty of attributing it to climate change, which requires long-term data. So far, the prediction that diverging phenologies linked to climate change will cause mismatch is most clearly met in antagonistic interactions at high latitudes in the Artic. There is limited evidence of phenological mismatch in mutualistic interactions, possibly because of strong selection on mutualists to have co-adapted phenological strategies. The study of individual plasticity, population variation, and the genetic bases for phenological strategies is in its infancy. Recent work on woody plants revealed the large imprint of historic climate change on temperature, chilling, and day-length thresholds used by different species to synchronize their phenophases, which in the Northern Hemisphere has led to biogeographic phenological regions in which long-lived plants have adapted to particular interannual and intermillennial amplitudes of climate change.

Do natural enemies explain fluctuations in low-density spruce budworm populations?

Understanding the causal pathways through which forest insect outbreaks are triggered is important for resource managers. However, detailed population dynamics studies are hard to conduct in low-density, pre-outbreak populations because the insects are difficult to sample in sufficient numbers. Using laboratory-raised larvae installed in the field across a 1,000 km east-west gradient in Québec (Canada) over an 11-yr period, we examined if parasitism and predation were likely to explain fluctuations in low-density spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana; SBW) populations. Parasitism rates by the two main larval parasitoid species, Elachertus cacoeciae and Tranosema rostrale, peaked during different years. This suggests that temporal fluctuations in overall parasitism were partly buffered by compensatory dynamics among parasitoid species. Still, spatial covariance analyses indicate that the residual interannual variation in parasitism rates was substantial and correlated over large distances (up to 700 km). On the other hand, interannual variation in predation rates was not spatially correlated. Piecewise structural equation models indicate that temporal variation in parasitism and predation does not influence temporal variation in wild SBW abundance. Spatially, however, SBWs installed in warmer locations tended to show higher parasitism rates, and these higher rates correlated with lower wild SBW population levels. Overall, the results indicate that large-scale drops in parasitism occur and could potentially contribute to SBW population increases. However, during the period covered by this study, other factors such as direct effects of weather on SBW larval development or indirect effects through host tree physiology or phenology were more likely to explain large-scale variation in wild SBW populations.

Synchrony, Weather, and Cycles in Southern Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

Spatial synchrony and cycles are common features of forest insect pests, but are often studied as separate phenomenon. Using time series of timber damage caused by Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) (southern pine beetle) in 10 states within the southern United States, this study examines synchrony in D. frontalis abundance, the synchronizing effects of temperature extremes, and the evidence for shared cycles among state populations. Cross-correlation and cluster analyses are used to quantify synchrony across a range of geographic distances and to identify groups of states with synchronous dynamics. Similar techniques are used to quantify spatial synchrony in temperature extremes and to examine their relationship to D. frontalis fluctuations. Cross-wavelet analysis is then used to examine pairs of time series for shared cycles. These analyses suggest there is substantial synchrony among states in D. frontalis fluctuations, and there are regional groups of states with similar dynamics. Synchrony in D. frontalis fluctuations also appears related to spatial synchrony in summer and winter temperature extremes. The cross-wavelet results suggest that D. frontalis dynamics may differ among regions and are not stationary. Significant oscillations were present in some states over certain time intervals, suggesting an endogenous feedback mechanism. Management of D. frontalis outbreaks could potentially benefit from a multistate regional approach because populations are synchronous on this level. Extreme summer temperatures are likely to become the most important synchronizing agent due to climate change.

Time-lagged intraspecific competition in temporally separated cohorts of a generalist insect

Competition can have far-reaching consequences for insect fitness and dispersion. Time-lagged interspecific competition is known to negatively affect fitness, yet time-lagged intraspecific competition is rarely studied outside of outbreak conditions. We tested the impact of competition between larval cohorts of the western tent caterpillar (Malacosoma californicum) feeding on chokecherry (Prunus virginiana). We reared larvae on host plants that either had or did not have feeding damage from tent caterpillars the previous season to test the bottom-up fitness effects of intraspecific competition. We measured host-plant quality to test potential mechanisms for bottom-up effects and conducted field oviposition surveys to determine if female adult tent caterpillars avoided host plants with evidence of prior tent caterpillar presence. We found that time-lagged intraspecific competition impacted tent caterpillar fitness by reducing female pupal mass, which is a predictor of lifetime fitness. We found that plants that had been fed upon by tent caterpillars the previous season had leaves that were significantly tougher than plants that had not been fed upon by tent caterpillars, which may explain why female tent caterpillars suffered reduced fitness on these plants. Finally, we found that there were fewer tent caterpillar egg masses on plants that had tent caterpillars earlier in the season than plants without tent caterpillars, which suggests that adult females avoid these plants for oviposition. Our results confirm that intraspecific competition occurs among tent caterpillars and suggests that time-lagged intraspecific competition has been overlooked as an important component of insect fitness.

Steady states and outbreaks of two-phase nonlinear age-structured model of population dynamics with discrete time delay

In this paper we study the nonlinear age-structured model of a polycyclic two-phase population dynamics including delayed effect of population density growth on the mortality. Both phases are modelled as a system of initial boundary values problem for semi-linear transport equation with delay and initial problem for nonlinear delay ODE. The obtained system is studied both theoretically and numerically. Three different regimes of population dynamics for asymptotically stable states of autonomous systems are obtained in numerical experiments for the different initial values of population density. The quasi-periodical travelling wave solutions are studied numerically for the autonomous system with the different values of time delays and for the system with oscillating death rate and birth modulus. In both cases it is observed three types of travelling wave solutions: harmonic oscillations, pulse sequence and single pulse.

Impacts of Insect Herbivores on Plant Populations

Apparent feeding damage by insects on plants is often slight. Thus, the influences of insect herbivores on plant populations are likely minor. The role of insects on host-plant populations can be elucidated via several methods: stage-structured life tables of plant populations manipulated by herbivore exclusion and seed-addition experiments, tests of the enemy release hypothesis, studies of the effects of accidentally and intentionally introduced insect herbivores, and observations of the impacts of insect species that show outbreak population dynamics. These approaches demonstrate that some, but not all, insect herbivores influence plant population densities. At times, insect-feeding damage kills plants, but more often, it reduces plant size, growth, and seed production. Plant populations for which seed germination is site limited will not respond at the population level to reduced seed production. Insect herbivores can influence rare plant species and need to be considered in conservation programs. Alterations due to climate change in the distributions of insect herbivores indicate the possibility of new influences on host plants. Long-term studies are required to show if density-related insect behavior stabilizes plant populations or if environmental variation drives most temporal fluctuations in plant densities. Finally, insects can influence plant populations and communities through changing the diversity of nonhost species, modifying nutrient fluxes, and rejuvenating over mature forests.

The phylogenetic relationship and cross-infection of nucleopolyhedroviruses between the invasive winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and its native congener, Bruce spanworm (O. bruceata)

Disease can affect biological invasions by acting as either a synergist or antagonist. Disease-mediated invasions have important implications for understanding the spread of invasive insects, which cost billions of dollars in damages annually. One such non-native, destructive insect is the winter moth, Operophtera brumata L. (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), which causes defoliation and mortality of deciduous trees in its introduced range. In the northeastern United States, winter moth populations overlap with a native congener, Bruce spanworm, Operophtera bruceata Hulst. Nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV), appears to be an important natural enemy in Bruce spanworm and there is some evidence that the NPV infection found in winter moth in the northeastern U.S. may originate from Bruce spanworm. By sequencing two viral genes (the polyhedrin and p74 genes) from field-collected larvae of both species, we found that the winter moth virus (OpbuNPV) is distinct from the virus from Bruce spanworm (OpbrNPV). However, the two viruses do constitute a clade within the Alphabaculovirus Group 2 NPVs, indicating that they are more similar to each other than they are to other lepidopteran viruses, even other geometrid-derived NPVs. As far as we know, this is the first report of sequences from an NPV from Bruce spanworm. Results from cross infection trials suggest that cross infection is uncommon if it occurs at all. Our results show that these two closely related species have distinct viruses and, unlike previous suggestions, Bruce spanworm virus is not mediating the winter moth invasion.

Viability of cyclic populations

Theory on viability of small populations is well developed and has led to the standard methodology of population viability analysis (PVA) to assess vulnerability of single species. However, more complex situations involving community dynamics or environmental change violate theoretical assumptions. Synthesizing concepts from population, community, and conservation ecology, we develop a generic theory on the viability of cyclic populations. The interplay of periodic population decline and demography causes varying risk patterns that aggregate during cycles and modify the temporal structure of viability. This variability is visualized and quantitatively assessed. For two standard viability metrics that summarize immediate extinction risk and the general long-term conditions of populations, we mathematically describe the impact of population cycles. Finally, we suggest and demonstrate PVA for cyclic populations that respond to, e.g., seasonality, interannual variation, or trophic interactions. Our theoretical and methodological advancement opens a route to viability analysis in food webs and trophic meta-communities and equips biodiversity conservation with a long-missing tool.

Density-dependent effects of larval dispersal mediated by host plant quality on populations of an invasive insect

The success of invasive species is often thought to be due to release from natural enemies. This hypothesis assumes that species are regulated by top-down forces in their native range and are likely to be regulated by bottom-up forces in the invasive range. Neither of these assumptions has been consistently supported with insects, a group which includes many destructive invasive species. Winter moth (Operophtera brumata) is an invasive defoliator in North America that appears to be regulated by larval mortality. To assess whether regulation was caused by top-down or bottom-up forces, we sought to identify the main causes of larval mortality. We used observational and manipulative field and laboratory studies to demonstrate that larval mortality due to predation, parasitism, and disease were minimal. We measured the response of larval dispersal in the field to multiple aspects of foliar quality, including total phenolics, pH 10 oxidized phenolics, trichome density, total nitrogen, total carbon, and carbon-nitrogen ratio. Tree-level declines in density were driven by density-dependent dispersal of early instars. Late instar larvae dispersed at increased rates from previously damaged as compared to undamaged foliage, and in 2015 field larval dispersal rates were related to proportion of oxidative phenolics. We conclude that larval dispersal is the dominant source of density-dependent larval mortality, may be mediated by induced changes in foliar quality, and likely regulates population densities in New England. These findings suggest that winter moth population densities in New England are regulated by bottom-up forces, aligning with the natural enemy release hypothesis.

Continental-scale travelling waves in forest geometrids in Europe: an evaluation of the evidence

A recent paper claims the existence of one of the most large-scale travelling waves ever recorded for any animal population. Here we address why conceptual and methodological pitfalls may have served to exaggerate or even impose the spatial patterns reported. Photo credit: Jane U. Jepsen.

Ecology and evolution of pathogens in natural populations of Lepidoptera

Pathogens are ubiquitous in insect populations and yet few studies examine their dynamics and impacts on host populations. We discuss four lepidopteran systems and explore their contributions to disease ecology and evolution. More specifically, we elucidate the role of pathogens in insect population dynamics. For three species, western tent caterpillars, African armyworm and introduced populations of gypsy moth, infection by nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV) clearly regulates host populations or reduces their outbreaks. Transmission of NPV is largely horizontal although low levels of vertical transmission occur, and high levels of covert infection in some cases suggest that the virus can persist in a nonsymptomatic form. The prevalence of a mostly vertically transmitted protozoan parasite, Ophryocystis elektroscirrha, in monarch butterflies is intimately related to their migratory behaviour that culls highly infected individuals. Virulence and transmission are positively related among genotypes of this parasite. These systems clearly demonstrate that the interactions between insects and pathogens are highly context dependent. Not only is the outcome a consequence of changes in density and genetic diversity: environmental factors, particularly diet, can have strong impacts on virulence, transmission and host resistance or tolerance. What maintains the high level of host and pathogen diversity in these systems, however, remains a question.