The role of cost-effectiveness analysis in developing nutrition policy

A qualitative study on facilitators and barriers to adoption and implementation of nutrition interventions in higher education settings in Flanders

The transition from secondary school to college or university is a well-known and well-studied risk period for weight and/or fat gain and not meeting the dietary recommendations. Higher education acts as a promising setting to implement nutrition interventions. An important condition for intervention success is that interventions are implemented as intended by the protocol and integrated in the institutional policy. Unfortunately, to date, there is only little understanding of the factors influencing adoption and implementation of nutrition interventions in higher education settings. This study aimed to provide insight into stakeholders' perspectives on facilitators and barriers to adoption and implementation of nutrition interventions promoting healthy and sustainable diets among higher education students in Flanders. Eight online group interviews and three online individual interviews were conducted involving a total of 37 stakeholders (e.g., staff of student services and student restaurants) from ten Flemish higher education institutions with varying food policy quality scores, and one external catering company which provides catering in higher education institutions. A semi-structured interview guide based on the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR-framework) was used to facilitate the interviews. Afterwards, the data were analyzed using a combined inductive and deductive thematic approach led by the CFIR-framework. Most of the institutions' food policies focused on the provision and promotion of healthy and sustainable nutrition. Therefore, the reported factors in the present study consequently relate primarily to these two strategies. Stakeholders preferred to adopt low cost and institution-tailored interventions supported by experts and evidence, considering them easier and less resourceful to implement in the specific context of the institution. They stressed the importance of considering both students' and institution stakeholders' needs and perspectives in the development of nutrition interventions and implementation plans. Furthermore, interventions should be focused on a combination of different ecological levels and various strategies. Future interventions should be developed participatively and should be focused on a combination of both individual and environmental levels. Higher education institutions are encouraged to use opportunities such as creating win-win situations within the institution, working together with research groups and engaging students through student associations. The findings of this research add to the literature on implementation science and inform future development and implementation of nutrition interventions in higher education settings.

The effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and policy processes of regulatory, voluntary and partnership policies to improve food environments: an evidence synthesis

Background

Dietary factors are among the largest and costliest drivers of chronic diseases in England. As a response, the government implements a range of population interventions to promote healthy diets by targeting food environments.

Objectives

This study aimed to conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and policy process of real-world evaluations of national and state policies on improving food environments, with a focus on whether they were regulatory, voluntary or partnership approaches.

Data sources

Fourteen relevant English-language databases were searched in November 2020 for studies published between 2010 and 2020.

Methods

Six separate evidence reviews were conducted to assess the evidence of effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and policy processes of policies to improve food environments.

Results

A total of 483 primary research evaluations and 14 evidence syntheses were included. The study reveals considerable geographic, methodological and other imbalances across the literature, with, for example, 81% of publications focusing only on 12 countries. The systematic reviews also reveal the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of reviewed regulatory approaches designed to improve health, consumer behaviour and food environment outcomes while public-private partnerships and voluntary approaches to improve diets via reformulation, advertising and promotion restrictions or other changes to the environment were limited in their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The study also revealed key enabling and impeding factors across regulatory, voluntary and public-private partnership approaches.

Conclusion

From the available evidence reviewed, this study finds that regulatory approaches appear most effective at improving the food environment, and voluntary agreements and partnerships have limited effectiveness. These findings should be carefully considered in future public health policy development, as should the findings of geographic imbalance in the evidence and inadequate representation of equity dimensions across the policy evaluations. We find that food policies are at times driven by factors other than the evidence and shaped by compromise and pragmatism. Food policy should be first and foremost designed and driven by the evidence of greatest effectiveness to improve food environments for healthier diets.

Limitations

This was a complex evidence synthesis due to its scope and some policy evaluations may have been missed as the literature searches did not include specific policy names. The literature was limited to studies published in English from 2010 to 2020, potentially missing studies of interest.

Future work

Priorities include the need for guidance for appraising risk of bias and quality of non-clinical studies, for reporting policy characteristics in evaluations, for supporting evaluations of real-world policies equitably across geographic regions, for capturing equity dimensions in policy evaluations, and for guideline development for quality and risk of bias of policy evaluations.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020170963.

Funding

This award project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR128607) and is published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 12, No. 8. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

The costs of Suaahara II, a complex scaled-up multisectoral nutrition programme in Nepal

Limited evidence exists on the costs of scaled-up multisectoral nutrition programmes. Such evidence is crucial to assess intervention value and affordability. Evidence is also lacking on the opportunity costs of implementers and participants engaging in community-level interventions. We help to fill this gap by estimating the full financial and economic costs of the United States Agency for International Development-funded Suaahara II (SII) programme, a scaled-up multisectoral nutrition programme in Nepal (2016-2023). We applied a standardized mixed methods costing approach to estimate total and unit costs over a 3.7-year implementation period. Financial expenditure data from national and subnational levels were combined with economic cost estimates assessed using in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with staff, volunteers, community members, and government partners in four representative districts. The average annual total cost was US$908,948 per district, with economic costs accounting for 47% of the costs. The annual unit cost was US$132 per programme participant (mother in the 1000-day period between conception and a child's second birthday) reached. Annual costs ranged from US$152 (mountains) to US$118 (plains) per programme participant. Personnel (63%) were the largest input cost driver, followed by supplies (11%). Community events (29%) and household counselling visits (17%) were the largest activity cost drivers. Volunteer cadres contributed significant time to the programme, with female community health volunteers spending a substantial amount of time (27 h per month) on SII activities. Multisectoral nutrition programmes can be costly, especially when taking into consideration volunteer and participant opportunity costs. This study provides much-needed evidence of the costs of scaled-up multisectoral nutrition programmes for future comparison against benefits.

Evaluation of a Nutrition Education and Skills Training programme in vulnerable adults who are at high risk of food insecurity

BACKGROUND

In Australia, the prevalence of food insecurity increased by 1.5% between 2014 and 2016 and 2018 and 2020 due to effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. OzHarvest offers a 6-week Nutrition Education and Skills Training (NEST) programme to adults at risk of food insecurity. NEST provides 2.5-h weekly cooking workshops on simple, healthy and affordable meals. This study aimed to determine the immediate (post) and longer-term (6 months) impacts of participation in NEST.

METHODS

A quasi-experimental study with pre-post surveys (n = 258) and 6-month follow-up surveys (n = 20) was conducted from June 2019 to July 2022. Survey results were obtained from NEST programme participants (≥18 years) from six major Australian cities.

RESULTS

Participants demonstrated immediate improvement in nutrition knowledge (p < 0.001), food preparation behaviours (p < 0.001) and confidence and self-efficacy (n = 222; p < 0.001). Intake of discretionary foods decreased (p < 0.001), whereas fruit, vegetable and water intake increased (p < 0.001). Food security improved from 57% to 68% immediately after the completion of the programme (p < 0.001). Participants demonstrated longer-term improvements in nutrition knowledge (p < 0.001), cooking confidence (n = 8; p = 0.03), food preparation behaviours (p = 0.003) and increased vegetable (p = 0.03) and fruit intake (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Participation in OzHarvest's NEST programme results in short-term improvements in food security levels and dietary behaviours. Over the longer term, these changes were sustained but to a lesser degree, indicating that systemic changes are required to address underlying socio-economic disadvantages.

Time to define food salt targets in Italy starting with cereal-based products: A safe and practical way to reduce the heavy burden of cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Excess salt intake is the leading dietary risk factor for cardiovascular disease in most countries, including Italy. While the cost-effectiveness of interventions aimed to reduce salt intake has been proved, the WHO recommendation to reduce salt intake by 30 % at the global level by 2025 is far from being reached.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In Italy, two surveys of the general adult population have established that the average salt intake is still almost twice the WHO recommendation although it was reduced by 1.2 g/day between 2008-12 and 2018-19. Previous investigations had shown that non-discretionary salt added by the industry or by local craft producers represents at least 50 % of the total intake and indicated cereal-based products as the main source of non-discretionary salt. Two recent studies conducted by the Italian Society of Human Nutrition "Young Working Group" have provided updated information on the salt content of almost three thousand cereal-based products currently available on the Italian food market and shown that most of the items evaluated had a sodium content much higher than the sodium benchmarks recently proposed by WHO.

CONCLUSIONS

Italy has built the foundations of an effective population strategy for salt intake reduction: it is time however to proceed with full commitment to food reformulation if any substantial further progress has to be made. Salt benchmarks for Italy need to be defined for the food categories most relevant to population salt intake and their implementation should ideally be mandatory after consultation with food producers.

Food provision to support improved nutrition and well-being of people experiencing disadvantage - perspectives of service providers

OBJECTIVE

Diet quality is significantly impacted by social and environmental factors. People experiencing socio-economic disadvantage face inequitable barriers to accessing nutritious foods and health services, resulting in significant health disparities. This study aimed to explore the barriers faced by organisations that provide food support to people experiencing disadvantage as well as to identify potential strategies to enhance this support for improved well-being of clients.

DESIGN

Semi-structured interviews using an exploratory approach and inductive thematic analysis.

SETTING

Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals from organisations involved in the provision of food support for people experiencing disadvantage aged ≥16 years.

RESULTS

Two major themes were identified from thirteen interviews. 'Dignity and respect for clients' serves as a guiding principle for food-related services across all organisations, while 'food' was a point of connection and a potential gateway to additional support pathways. Five additional subthemes included 'food as a platform to reduce social isolation, foster connection and promote participation', challenges with 'servicing clients with diverse experiences and needs', 'dependence on staff and volunteers with varying knowledge and skillsets', ensuring 'adequate access to services, resources and facilities' and 'necessity of community collaboration'.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the unique position of organisations involved in food support to identify client-specific needs and implement broader holistic health support. Future interventions should prioritise dignity, respect and social connection in design. Organisations require an adequately trained, sustainable workforce, with shared or enhanced services, resources and facilities, and greater community coordination with other services to maximise effectiveness.

A comparative analysis of the cost-utility of the Philippine tax on sweetened beverages as proposed and as implemented

Background

In response to increasing overweight and obesity, the Philippine government introduced a tax on sweetened beverages (SBs) in 2018. Evidence suggests that the beverage industry influenced the final tax design, making it more favourable for industry than the initially proposed bill. This study aimed to compare the relative health and economic benefits of the proposed SB tax with the implemented SB tax.

Methods

Philippine dietary consumption data were combined with price elasticity data from Mexico and data from Australia adapted to the Philippine context to estimate reductions in SB purchases and changes in body mass index (BMI) following the implementation of the tax. A multi-state, multiple-cohort Markov model was used to estimate the change in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) due to reduction in the epidemiology of obesity-related diseases, healthcare cost savings and government taxation revenue, resulting from both the proposed and implemented tax policies, over the lifetime of the 2018 Philippine population.

Findings

The proposed and implemented taxes were modelled to be dominant (cost-saving and improving health). Intervention costs were modelled to be PHP305.2 million (M) (approximately US$6M). Compared to the proposed tax, the implemented tax was modelled to result in a 43.0% smaller reduction in targeted beverage intake (51.1 ml/person/day vs. 89.7 ml/person/day), a 43.5% smaller reduction in BMI (0.35 kg/m2 vs. 0.62 kg/m2), 39.7% fewer HALYs gained (2,503,118 vs. 4,149,030), 39.9% fewer healthcare cost savings (PHP16.4 billion (B) vs. PHP27.3B), and 27.7% less government taxation revenue (PHP426.3B vs. PHP589.4B).

Interpretation

While the implemented tax in the Philippines will benefit population health, it is likely to yield less benefit than the proposed tax. The influence of the food and beverage industry on policy processes has the potential to lessen the benefits of population NCD prevention policies.

Funding

OH was supported to conduct this research by an Australian Government Research Training Program Stipend Scholarship. The funding body had no role in data collection and analysis, or manuscript preparation.

The estimated dietary and health impact of implementing the recently approved 'high in' front-of-package nutrition symbol in Canada: a food substitution scenario modeling study

Background

Front-of-pack labeling (FOPL) has been identified as a cost-effective policy to promote healthy food environments and to help consumers make healthier food choices. Consumer surveys report that after implementation of mandatory 'high in' FOPL symbols between 30 and 70% of consumers choose or were willing to choose products with fewer 'high in' symbols. Health Canada has recently published FOPL regulations that will require prepackaged food and beverages that meet or exceed thresholds for sodium, total sugars, or saturated fat to display a 'high in' FOPL nutrition symbol.

Objectives

The aims were to estimate the potential (1) dietary impact of substituting foods with similar foods that would display at least one less 'high in' symbol, and (2) the number of diet-related noncommunicable disease (NCD) deaths that could be averted or delayed due to estimated dietary changes.

Methods

Baseline and counterfactual intakes of sodium, total sugars, saturated fats, and energy were estimated among Canadian adults (n = 11,992) using both available days of 24 h-recall data from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition (CCHS). Similar foods to those reported in CCHS that would display at least one less 'high in' symbol (n = 239) were identified using a Canadian branded food composition database. Based on current FOPL consumer research, identified foods were substituted for 30, 50, and 70% of randomly selected CCHS-Nutrition adult participants and for all adult participants. Potential health impacts were estimated using the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl.

Results

Mean dietary reductions of between 73 and 259 mg/day of sodium, 2.0 and 6.9 g/day of total sugars, 0.2 and 0.5 g/day of saturated fats, and 14 and 46 kcal/day of energy were estimated. Between 2,148 (95% UI 1,913-2,386) and 7,047 (95% UI 6,249-7,886) of deaths due to diet-related NCDs, primarily from cardiovascular diseases (70%), could potentially be averted or delayed if Canadians choose products with fewer 'high in' symbols.

Conclusion

Results suggest that FOPL could significantly reduce sodium and total sugar intakes among Canadian adults, the consequences of which could avert or delay an important number of diet-related NCD deaths. These findings provide relevant data to support the importance of the impending FOPL regulations.

The social cost of high sodium diet in Singapore

High sodium (Na) diet is one of the leading behavioural risks of disease identified in the Singapore Burden of Disease Study. We aim to estimate the cost attributable to a high Na diet in Singapore in 2019 from a societal perspective by employing a prevalence-based approach in cost-of-illness studies. We extracted national-level healthcare data and population attributable fractions by sex and age. Costs included direct and indirect costs from inpatient treatment and productivity losses. In 2019, the annual societal cost attributable to a high Na diet was conservatively estimated to be USA$262 million (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 218, 359 million). At least USA$67·8 million (95 % UI 48·4, 120 million) and USA$194 million (95 % UI 153, 274 million) could be saved on healthcare and indirect costs, respectively, if the daily Na intake of Singaporeans was reduced to an average of 3 g. Overall, males had higher costs compared with females at USA$221 million (95 % UI 174, 312 million) and USA$41·1 million (95 % UI 33·5, 61·7 million), respectively. Productivity loss from foregone wages due to premature mortality had the largest cost at USA$191 million (95 % UI 150, 271 million). CVD had the largest healthcare expenditure at USA$61·4 million (95 % UI 41·6, 113 million), driven by ischaemic heart disease at USA$41·0 million (95 % UI 21·4, 88·9 million). Our study found that reducing Na intake could reduce future healthcare expenditures and productivity losses. This result is vital for policy evaluation in a rapidly ageing society like Singapore, where the burden of diseases associated with high Na diet is expected to increase.

How Many Diet-Related Non-Communicable Disease Deaths Could Be Averted or Delayed If Canadians Reduced Their Consumption of Calories Derived from Free Sugars Intake? A Macrosimulation Modeling Study

Free sugars are a major source of calories in diets and contribute to the burden of many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends reducing free sugars intake to less than 10% of total energy. This study aimed to estimate the number of diet-related NCD deaths which could be averted or delayed if Canadian adults were to reduce their calorie intake due to a systematic 20% reduction in the free sugars content in foods and beverages in Canada. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) to estimate the potential health impact. An estimated 6770 (95% UI 6184-7333) deaths due to diet-related NCDs could be averted or delayed, mostly from cardiovascular diseases (66.3%). This estimation would represent 7.5% of diet-related NCD deaths observed in 2019 in Canada. A 20% reduction in the free sugars content in foods and beverages would lead to a 3.2% reduction in calorie intake, yet an important number of diet-related NCD deaths could be averted or delayed through this strategy. Our findings can inform future policy decisions to support Canadians' free sugars intake reduction, such as proposing target levels for the free sugars content in key food categories.

Estimating the dietary and health impact of implementing front-of-pack nutrition labeling in Canada: A macrosimulation modeling study

Background

Front-of-pack labeling (FOPL) has been identified as a cost-effective policy to promote healthy diets. Health Canada has recently published FOPL regulations that will require food and beverages that meet or exceed set thresholds for sodium, sugars, or saturated fat to display a 'high in' symbol on the front of the package. Although a promising measure, its potential impact on dietary intakes and health have not yet been estimated in Canada.

Objective

This study aims to estimate (1) the potential dietary impact of implementing a mandatory FOPL among Canadian adults; and (2) the number of diet-related non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths that could be averted or delayed due to these estimated dietary changes.

Methods

Baseline and counterfactual usual intakes of sodium, total sugars, saturated fats, and calories were estimated among Canadian adults (n = 11,992) using both available days of 24 h recalls from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. The National Cancer Institute method was used to estimate usual intakes, and adjusted for age, sex, misreporting status, weekend/weekday, and sequence of recall. Estimated counterfactual dietary intakes were modeled from reductions observed in experimental and observational studies that examined changes in sodium, sugars, saturated fat, and calorie content of food purchases in the presence of a 'high in' FOPL (four counterfactual scenarios). The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl was used to estimate potential health impacts.

Results

Estimated mean dietary reductions were between 31 and 212 mg/day of sodium, 2.3 and 8.7 g/day of total sugars, 0.8 and 3.7 g/day of saturated fats, and 16 and 59 kcal/day of calories. Between 2,183 (95% UI 2,008-2,361) and 8,907 (95% UI 8,095-9,667) deaths due to diet-related NCDs, mostly from cardiovascular diseases (~70%), could potentially be averted or delayed by implementing a 'high in' FOPL in Canada. This estimation represents between 2.4 and 9.6% of the total number of diet-related NCD deaths in Canada.

Conclusion

Results suggest that implementing a FOPL could significantly reduce sodium, total sugar, and saturated fat intakes among Canadian adults and subsequently prevent or postpone a substantial number of diet-related NCD deaths in Canada. These results provide critical evidence to inform policy decisions related to implementing FOPL in Canada.

Estimating Canadian sodium intakes and the health impact of meeting national and WHO recommended sodium intake levels: A macrosimulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the second leading cause of total deaths in Canada. High blood pressure is the main metabolic risk factor for developing CVDs. It has been well established that excess consumption of sodium adversely affects blood pressure. Canadians' mean sodium intakes are well above recommended levels. Reducing dietary sodium intake through food reformulation has been identified as a cost-effective intervention, however, dietary sodium intake and the potential health impact of meeting recommended sodium intake levels due to food reformulation have not been determined in Canada.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to 1) obtain robust estimates of Canadians' usual sodium intakes, 2) model sodium intakes had foods been reformulated to align with Health Canada's sodium reduction targets, and 3) estimate the number of CVD deaths that could be averted or delayed if Canadian adults were to reduce their mean sodium intake to recommended levels under three scenarios: A) 2,300 mg/d-driven by a reduction of sodium levels in packaged foods to meet Health Canada targets (reformulation); B) 2,000 mg/d to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation; and C) 1,500 mg/d to meet the Adequate Intake recommendation.

METHODS

Foods in the University of Toronto's Food Label Information Program 2017, a Canadian branded food composition database, were linked to nationally representative food intake data from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition to estimate sodium intakes (and intakes had Health Canada's reformulation strategy been fully implemented). The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) was used to estimate potential health impact.

RESULTS

Overall, mean sodium intake was 2758 mg/day, varying by age and sex group. Based on 'reformulation' scenario A, mean sodium intakes were reduced by 459 mg/day, to 2299 mg/day. Reducing Canadians' sodium intake to recommended levels under scenarios A, B and C could have averted or delayed 2,176 (95% UI 869-3,687), 3,252 (95% UI 1,380-5,321), and 5,296 (95% UI 2,190-8,311) deaths due to CVDs, respectively, mainly from ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and hypertensive disease. This represents 3.7%, 5.6%, and 9.1%, respectively, of the total number of CVDs deaths observed in Canada in 2019.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that reducing sodium intake to recommended levels could prevent or postpone a substantial number of CVD deaths in Canada. Reduced sodium intakes could be achieved through reformulation of the Canadian food supply. However, it will require higher compliance from the food industry to achieve Health Canada's voluntary benchmark sodium reduction targets.

Estimating the impact of nutrition and physical activity policies with quasi-experimental methods and simulation modelling: an integrative review of methods, challenges and synergies

BACKGROUND

The promotion of healthy lifestyles has high priority on the global public health agenda. Evidence on the real-world (cost-)effectiveness of policies addressing nutrition and physical activity is needed. To estimate short-term policy impacts, quasi-experimental methods using observational data are useful, while simulation models can estimate long-term impacts. We review the methods, challenges and potential synergies of both approaches for the evaluation of nutrition and physical activity policies.

METHODS

We performed an integrative review applying purposive literature sampling techniques to synthesize original articles, systematic reviews and lessons learned from public international workshops conducted within the European Union Policy Evaluation Network.

RESULTS

We highlight data requirements for policy evaluations, discuss the distinct assumptions of instrumental variable, difference-in-difference, and regression discontinuity designs and describe the necessary robustness and falsification analyses to test them. Further, we summarize the specific assumptions of comparative risk assessment and Markov state-transition simulation models, including their extension to microsimulation. We describe the advantages and limitations of these modelling approaches and discuss future directions, such as the adequate consideration of heterogeneous policy responses. Finally, we highlight how quasi-experimental and simulation modelling methods can be integrated into an evidence cycle for policy evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

Assumptions of quasi-experimental and simulation modelling methods in policy evaluations should be credible, rigorously tested and transparently communicated. Both approaches can be applied synergistically within a coherent framework to compare policy implementation scenarios and improve the estimation of nutrition and physical activity policy impacts, including their distribution across population sub-groups.

Dietary Risk Factors and Eating Behaviors in Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD)

Dietary risk factors play a fundamental role in the prevention and progression of atherosclerosis and PAD (Peripheral Arterial Disease). The impact of nutrition, however, defined as the process of taking in food and using it for growth, metabolism and repair, remains undefined with regard to PAD. This article describes the interplay between nutrition and the development/progression of PAD. We reviewed 688 articles, including key articles, narrative and systematic reviews, meta-analyses and clinical studies. We analyzed the interaction between nutrition and PAD predictors, and subsequently created four descriptive tables to summarize the relationship between PAD, dietary risk factors and outcomes. We comprehensively reviewed the role of well-studied diets (Mediterranean, vegetarian/vegan, low-carbohydrate ketogenic and intermittent fasting diet) and prevalent eating behaviors (emotional and binge eating, night eating and sleeping disorders, anorexia, bulimia, skipping meals, home cooking and fast/ultra-processed food consumption) on the traditional risk factors of PAD. Moreover, we analyzed the interplay between PAD and nutritional status, nutrients, dietary patterns and eating habits. Dietary patterns and eating disorders affect the development and progression of PAD, as well as its disabling complications including major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and major adverse limb events (MALE). Nutrition and dietary risk factor modification are important targets to reduce the risk of PAD as well as the subsequent development of MACE and MALE.

Simulation Modeling for the Economic Evaluation of Population-Based Dietary Policies: A Systematic Scoping Review

Simulation modeling can be useful to estimate the long-term health and economic impacts of population-based dietary policies. We conducted a systematic scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guideline to map and critically appraise economic evaluations of population-based dietary policies using simulation models. We searched Medline, Embase, and EconLit for studies published in English after 2005. Modeling studies were mapped based on model type, dietary policy, and nutritional target, and modeled risk factor-outcome pathways were analyzed. We included 56 studies comprising 136 model applications evaluating dietary policies in 21 countries. The policies most often assessed were reformulation (34/136), taxation (27/136), and labeling (20/136); the most common targets were salt/sodium (60/136), sugar-sweetened beverages (31/136), and fruit and vegetables (15/136). Model types included Markov-type (35/56), microsimulation (11/56), and comparative risk assessment (7/56) models. Overall, the key diet-related risk factors and health outcomes were modeled, but only 1 study included overall diet quality as a risk factor. Information about validation was only reported in 19 of 56 studies and few studies (14/56) analyzed the equity impacts of policies. Commonly included cost components were health sector (52/56) and public sector implementation costs (35/56), as opposed to private sector (18/56), lost productivity (11/56), and informal care costs (3/56). Most dietary policies (103/136) were evaluated as cost-saving independent of the applied costing perspective. An analysis of the main limitations reported by authors revealed that model validity, uncertainty of dietary effect estimates, and long-term intervention assumptions necessitate a careful interpretation of results. In conclusion, simulation modeling is widely applied in the economic evaluation of population-based dietary policies but rarely takes dietary complexity and the equity dimensions of policies into account. To increase relevance for policymakers and support diet-related disease prevention, economic effects beyond the health sector should be considered, and transparent conduct and reporting of model validation should be improved.

A Mediterranean diet microsimulation modeling in relation to cardiovascular disease burden: the ATTICA and GREECS epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

To quantify the changes in 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) onset, recurrence, and mortality, in relation to transitioning from low to a higher level of adherence to the Mediterranean diet.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

An individual-level microsimulation was created based on ATTICA (2002-2012, n = 3042 subjects free-of-CVD) and GREECS (2004-2014, n = 2172 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS)) studies (in total n = 5214). Eight scenarios regarding the proportion of participants and the size of improvement of the level of adherence to the Mediterranean diet (corresponding to one to ten point increases in MedDietScore) were compared in terms of relative change in CVD incidence and mortality, as well as, the number of preventable CVD events and deaths.

RESULTS

Improving adherence to the Mediterranean diet in at least 10% of the population, a significant relative percentage reduction could be observed in 10-year CVD onset, recurrence, and mortality. At least 851 first CVD events, 374 recurrent CVD events, and 205 CVD deaths per 100,000 of the population could be averted or delayed. In addition, Mediterranean diet clustering revealed that scoring higher in fruits, vegetables, whole wheat products, and legumes was more important than achieving higher scores in low consumption of meat and full-fat dairy products against CVD (all HRs in the former cluster were lower than the latter, indicating a stronger protective effect).

CONCLUSIONS

This microsimulation process confirms the added value of the Mediterranean diet in primary and secondary CVD prevention having great achievements even with modifications in a small part of the population (10%), while challenges the orientation of Mediterranean-diet interventions giving higher weights to plant-based part.

Economic evaluation of nutrition interventions: Does one size fit all?

BACKGROUND

Nutrition interventions have specific features that might warrant modifications to the methods used for economic evaluations of healthcare interventions.

AIM

The aim of the article is to identify these features and when they challenge the use of cost-utility analysis (CUA).

METHODS

A critical review of the literature is conducted and a 2 by 2 classification matrix for nutrition interventions is proposed based on 1) who the main party responsible for the implementation and funding of the intervention is; and 2) who the target recipient of the intervention is. The challenges of conducting economic evaluations for each group of nutrition interventions are then analysed according to four main aspects: attribution of effects, measuring and valuing outcomes, inter-sectorial costs and consequences and equity considerations.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

CUA is appropriate for nutrition interventions when they are funded from the healthcare sector, have no (or modest) spill-overs to other sectors of the economy and have only (or mainly) health consequences. For other interventions, typically involving different government agencies, with cost implications for the private sector, with important wellbeing consequences outside health and with heterogeneous welfare effects across socio-economic groups, other economic evaluation methods need to be developed in order to offer valid guidance to policy making. For these interventions, checklists for critical appraisal of economic evaluations may require some substantial changes.

Disease burden and attributable risk factors of respiratory infections in China from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

There was lack of data on the burdens and trends of upper and lower respiratory infections (URIs and LRIs) over the past three decades in China.

METHODS

We estimated the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to upper and lower respiratory infections (URIs and LRIs) and attributable risk factors in China by a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Incidence, mortality, and DALYs were stratified by sex, age, and province. Risk factors for respiratory infections were analyzed from exposure data.

FINDINGS

The age-standardized incidence rates of URIs and LRIs were 179,077 and 3926 per 100,000 persons in 2019, with a 7•52% and 35•07% decrease from 1990, respectively. Moreover, 2801 and 185,264 persons died of URIs and LRIs in 2019, respectively. DALYs for URIs and LRIs also decreased from 1,516,727 in 1990 to 928,617 in 2019 and from 38,278,504 in 1990 to 4,020,676 in 2019. The burden of URIs and LRIs were generally similar in males and females, but relatively higher in the new-borns and the elderly. Child malnutrition and low birth weight were the most important cause of age-standardized DALYs of LRIs and URIs, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Future URI and LRI prevention strategies should focus on the maternal and child health, air pollution, and tobacco control, especially in young children and the elderly population.

FUNDING

National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606200); National Natural Science Foundation of China (82041021); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (20ykpy86) and Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2019A1515110003); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (No.: INV-006371).

Appetite for change? Facilitators and barriers to nutrition guideline implementation in Canadian recreational facilities

As providers of community-based physical activity programs, recreation and sports facilities serve as an important resource for health promotion. Unfortunately, the food environments within these settings often do not reflect healthy eating guidelines. This study sought to describe facilitators and barriers to implementing provincial nutrition guidelines in recreation and sports facilities in three Canadian provinces with nutrition guidelines. Semi-structured interviews were analysed thematically to identify facilitators and barriers to implementing provincial nutrition guidelines. Facilitators and barriers were then categorised using a modified "inside out" socio-ecological model that places health-related and other social environments at the centre. A total of 32 semi-structured interviews were conducted at two time-points across the three guideline provinces. Interview participants included recreation staff managers, facility committee or board members and recreation volunteers. Eight facilitators and barriers were identified across five levels of the inside out socio-ecological model. Facilitators included provincial or municipal expectations of guideline implementation, clear communication to staff around guideline directives and the presence of a champion within the community or facility who supported guideline implementation. Barriers included unhealthy food culture within community, competition from other food providers and issues within food service contracts that undermined healthy food provision. Findings reinforce the importance of top down (clear expectations regarding guideline implementation at the time of approval) and bottom up (need for buy-in from multiple stakeholders) approaches to ensure successful implementation of nutrition guidelines. The application of a modified socio-ecological model allowed for a more nuanced understanding of leverage points to support successful guideline implementation. Lay summary Healthy eating is an important behaviour for preventing chronic diseases. Supporting people to access healthy foods in places where they live, learn, work or play is a public health priority. Recreation and sports facilities are a setting where people can be physically active. Unfortunately, the food environment in these settings may not reflect nutrition guidelines. In this study, we interviewed key stakeholders from recreation and sports facilities in three Canadian provinces who had put guidelines for healthy eating in place. We used a specific framework to do this called the inside out socio-ecological model. Eight facilitators and barriers were identified using this model. Facilitators included provincial or municipal expectations of guideline implementation, clear communication to staff around guideline directives and the presence of a champion within the community or facility who supported guideline implementation. Barriers included unhealthy food culture within community, competition from other food providers and issues within food service contracts that undermined healthy food provision. Our findings can help people working in recreation and sports facilities to identify issues that may help or hinder healthy food provision in these settings.

Insufficiency of B vitamins with its possible clinical implications

Vitamin deficiency causes classical deficiency diseases such as beriberi and rickets. Vitamin insufficiency, which is milder than deficiency, is a risk for various chronic diseases, but its significance has not been recognized in Japan. Vitamin D insufficiency is quite common in Japan, and a serious risk for osteoporotic fracture through its unbeneficial effect on bone and muscle. Insufficiency of B vitamins has been little studied. However, hyperhomocysteinemia caused by the insufficiency of vitamin B12 or folate is a risk for cardiovascular disease, osteoporotic fracture, and cognitive impairment. Additionally, we have recently reported that vitamin B1 insufficiency is a risk for heart failure in the elderly. The effect of improvement of nutritional status including vitamins is less marked compared to drug treatment, but it costs far less, and is suited for the primary prevention of diseases. Randomized controlled trial is considered the study with the most robust evidence in the evaluation of drug treatment, but more emphasis should be put on the well-designed cohort studies in evaluating the role of nutrients. Vitamin insufficiency is quite prevalent, and vitamin requirement is much higher for its prevention than for the prevention of deficiency.

The Modelled Population Obesity-Related Health Benefits of Reducing Consumption of Discretionary Foods in Australia

Over one third of Australians' daily energy intake is from discretionary foods and drinks. While many health promotion efforts seek to limit discretionary food intake, the population health impact of reductions in the consumption of different types of discretionary foods (e.g., sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), confectionery, sweet biscuits) has not been quantified. This study estimated the potential reductions in body weight, obesity-related disease incidence, and healthcare cost savings associated with consumption of one less serving per week of different discretionary foods. Reductions in the different types of discretionary food were modelled individually to estimate the impact on energy consumption and population body weight by 5-year age and sex groups. It was assumed that one serving of discretionary food each week was replaced with either a serving of fruit or popcorn, and a serving (375 mL) of SSBs was replaced with coffee, tea, or milk. Proportional multi-state multiple-cohort Markov modelling estimated likely resultant health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained and healthcare costs saved over the lifetime of the 2010 Australian population. A reduction of one serving of SSBs (375 mL) had the greatest potential impact in terms of weight reduction, particularly in ages 19-24 years (mean 0.31 kg, 95% UI: 0.23 kg to 0.37 kg) and overall healthcare cost savings of AUD 793.4 million (95% UI: 589.1 M to 976.1 M). A decrease of one serving of sweet biscuits had the second largest potential impact on weight change overall, with healthcare cost savings of $640.7 M (95% CI: $402.6 M to $885.8 M) and the largest potential weight reduction amongst those aged 75 years and over (mean 0.21 kg, 95% UI: 0.14 kg to 0.27 kg). The results demonstrate that small reductions in discretionary food consumption are likely to have substantial health benefits at the population level. Moreover, the study highlights that policy responses to improve population diets may need to be tailored to target different types of foods for different population groups.

Eat, play, live: a randomized controlled trial within a natural experiment examining the role of nutrition policy and capacity building in improving food environments in recreation and sport facilities

Background

Recreation and sport facilities often have unhealthy food environments that may promote unhealthy dietary patterns among children. In response, some Canadian provinces have released voluntary nutrition guidelines for recreation and sport facilities, however implementation has been limited. Organizational capacity building may overcome barriers to implementing guidelines. Eat, Play, Live was a randomized controlled trial embedded within a natural experiment that tested the impact of an 18 month capacity building intervention (CBI) in enhancing implementation of provincial nutrition guidelines, and whether nutrition guidelines were associated with positive changes. Primary outcomes were facility capacity, policy development and food environment quality.

Methods

Recreation and sport facilities in three guideline provinces were randomized into a guideline + CBI (GL + CBI; n = 17) or a guideline only comparison condition (GL-ONLY; n = 15). Facilities in a province without guidelines constituted a second comparison condition (NO-GL; n = 17). Facility capacity, policy development, and food environment quality (vending and concession) were measured and compared at baseline and follow-up across conditions using repeated measures ANOVA and Chi-square statistics. Healthfulness of vending and concession items was rated as Do Not Sell (least nutritious), Sell Sometimes or Sell Most (most nutritious).

Results

There were significant time by condition effects, with significant increases in facility capacity (mean ± SD: 30.8 ± 15.6% to 62.3 ± 22.0%; p <  0.01), nutrition policy development (17.6% developed new policies; p = 0.049), overall quality of the concession food environment (14.7 ± 8.4 to 17.5 ± 7.2; p <  0.001), and in the proportion of Sell Most (3.7 ± 4.4% to 11.0 ± 9.0%; p = 0.002) and Sell Sometimes vending snacks (22.4 ± 14.4% to 43.8 ± 15.8%; p <  0.001) in GL + CBI facilities, with a significant decline in Do Not Sell vending snacks (74.0 ± 16.6% to 45.2 ± 20.1%; p <  0.001).

Conclusions

Significant improvements in facility capacity, policy development and food environment quality occurred in recreation and sport facilities that were exposed to nutrition guidelines and participated in a CBI. Outcomes did not improve in facilities that were only passively or not at all exposed to guidelines. Ongoing capacity building may enhance implementation of voluntary nutrition guidelines, however food environments remained overwhelmingly unhealthy, suggesting additional scope to enhance implementation.

Trials registration

Clinical trials registration (retrospectively registered): ISRCTN14669997 Jul 3, 2018.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12966-019-0811-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.

METHODS

By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of disease-specific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Healthcare Expenditure and Productivity Cost Savings from Reductions in Cardiovascular Disease and Type 2 Diabetes Associated with Increased Intake of Cereal Fibre among Australian Adults: A Cost of Illness Analysis

An ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic diseases including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are putting increased pressure on healthcare expenditure in Australia. A cost of illness analysis was conducted to assess the potential savings in healthcare expenditure and productivity costs associated with lower prevalence of CVD and T2D resulting from increased intake of cereal fibre. Modelling was undertaken for three levels of increased dietary fibre intake using cereal fibre: a 10% increase in total dietary fibre; an increase to the Adequate Intake; and an increase to the Suggested Dietary Target. Total healthcare expenditure and productivity cost savings associated with reduced CVD and T2D were calculated by gender, socioeconomic status, baseline dietary fibre intake, and population uptake. Total combined annual healthcare expenditure and productivity cost savings of AUD$17.8 million-$1.6 billion for CVD and AUD$18.2 million-$1.7 billion for T2D were calculated. Total savings were generally larger among adults of lower socioeconomic status and those with lower dietary fibre intakes. Given the substantial healthcare expenditure and productivity cost savings that could be realised through increases in cereal fibre, there is cause for the development of interventions and policies that encourage an increase in cereal fibre intake in Australia.

Preventing type 2 diabetes: systematic review of studies of cost-effectiveness of lifestyle programmes and metformin, with and without screening, for pre-diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Explore the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle interventions and metformin in reducing subsequent incidence of type 2 diabetes, both alone and in combination with a screening programme to identify high-risk individuals.

DESIGN

Systematic review of economic evaluations.

DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Database searches (Embase, Medline, PreMedline, NHS EED) and citation tracking identified economic evaluations of lifestyle interventions or metformin alone or in combination with screening programmes in people at high risk of developing diabetes. The International Society for Pharmaco-economics and Outcomes Research's Questionnaire to Assess Relevance and Credibility of Modelling Studies for Informing Healthcare Decision Making was used to assess study quality.

RESULTS

27 studies were included; all had evaluated lifestyle interventions and 12 also evaluated metformin. Primary studies exhibited considerable heterogeneity in definitions of pre-diabetes and intensity and duration of lifestyle programmes. Lifestyle programmes and metformin appeared to be cost effective in preventing diabetes in high-risk individuals (median incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £7490/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and £8428/QALY, respectively) but economic estimates varied widely between studies. Intervention-only programmes were in general more cost effective than programmes that also included a screening component. The longer the period evaluated, the more cost-effective interventions appeared. In the few studies that evaluated other economic considerations, budget impact of prevention programmes was moderate (0.13%-0.2% of total healthcare budget), financial payoffs were delayed (by 9-14 years) and impact on incident cases of diabetes was limited (0.1%-1.6% reduction). There was insufficient evidence to answer the question of (1) whether lifestyle programmes are more cost effective than metformin or (2) whether low-intensity lifestyle interventions are more cost effective than the more intensive lifestyle programmes that were tested in trials.

CONCLUSIONS

The economics of preventing diabetes are complex. There is some evidence that diabetes prevention programmes are cost effective, but the evidence base to date provides few clear answers regarding design of prevention programmes because of differences in denominator populations, definitions, interventions and modelling assumptions.

Systematic review of dietary salt reduction policies: Evidence for an effectiveness hierarchy?

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention strategies now prioritise four major risk factors: food, tobacco, alcohol and physical activity. Dietary salt intake remains much higher than recommended, increasing blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and stomach cancer. Substantial reductions in salt intake are therefore urgently needed. However, the debate continues about the most effective approaches. To inform future prevention programmes, we systematically reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of possible salt reduction interventions. We further compared "downstream, agentic" approaches targeting individuals with "upstream, structural" policy-based population strategies.

METHODS

We searched six electronic databases (CDSR, CRD, MEDLINE, SCI, SCOPUS and the Campbell Library) using a pre-piloted search strategy focussing on the effectiveness of population interventions to reduce salt intake. Retrieved papers were independently screened, appraised and graded for quality by two researchers. To facilitate comparisons between the interventions, the extracted data were categorised using nine stages along the agentic/structural continuum, from "downstream": dietary counselling (for individuals, worksites or communities), through media campaigns, nutrition labelling, voluntary and mandatory reformulation, to the most "upstream" regulatory and fiscal interventions, and comprehensive strategies involving multiple components.

RESULTS

After screening 2,526 candidate papers, 70 were included in this systematic review (49 empirical studies and 21 modelling studies). Some papers described several interventions. Quality was variable. Multi-component strategies involving both upstream and downstream interventions, generally achieved the biggest reductions in salt consumption across an entire population, most notably 4g/day in Finland and Japan, 3g/day in Turkey and 1.3g/day recently in the UK. Mandatory reformulation alone could achieve a reduction of approximately 1.45g/day (three separate studies), followed by voluntary reformulation (-0.8g/day), school interventions (-0.7g/day), short term dietary advice (-0.6g/day) and nutrition labelling (-0.4g/day), but each with a wide range. Tax and community based counselling could, each typically reduce salt intake by 0.3g/day, whilst even smaller population benefits were derived from health education media campaigns (-0.1g/day). Worksite interventions achieved an increase in intake (+0.5g/day), however, with a very wide range. Long term dietary advice could achieve a -2g/day reduction under optimal research trial conditions; however, smaller reductions might be anticipated in unselected individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Comprehensive strategies involving multiple components (reformulation, food labelling and media campaigns) and "upstream" population-wide policies such as mandatory reformulation generally appear to achieve larger reductions in population-wide salt consumption than "downstream", individually focussed interventions. This 'effectiveness hierarchy' might deserve greater emphasis in future NCD prevention strategies.

Joining the dots: the role of brokers in nutrition policy in Australia

Background

Poor diet is the leading preventable risk factor contributing to the burden of disease in Australia. A range of cost-effective, comprehensive population-focussed strategies are available to address these dietary-related diseases. However, despite evidence of their effectiveness, minimal federal resources are directed to this area. To better understand the limited public health nutrition policy action in Australia, we sought to identify the key policy brokers in the Australian nutrition policy network and consider their level of influence over nutrition policymaking.

Methods

A social network analysis involving four rounds of data collection was undertaken using a modified reputational snowball method to identify the nutrition policy network of individuals in direct contact with each other. Centrality measures, in particular betweenness centrality, and a visualisation of the network were used to identify key policy brokers.

Results

Three hundred and ninety (390) individual actors with 1917 direct ties were identified within the Australian nutrition policy network. The network revealed two key brokers; a Nutrition Academic and a General Health professional from a non-government organisation (NGO), with the latter being in the greatest strategic position for influencing policymakers.

Conclusion

The results of this social network analysis illustrate there are two dominant brokers within the nutrition policy network in Australia. However their structural position in the network means their brokerage roles have different purposes and different levels of influence on policymaking. The results suggest that brokerage in isolation may not adequately represent influence in nutrition policy in Australia. Other factors, such as direct access to decision–makers and the saliency of the solution, must also be considered.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4217-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Taxes and Subsidies for Improving Diet and Population Health in Australia: A Cost-Effectiveness Modelling Study

BACKGROUND

An increasing number of countries are implementing taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks to address the growing burden of dietary-related disease, but the cost-effectiveness of combining taxes on unhealthy foods and subsidies on healthy foods is not well understood.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using a population model of dietary-related diseases and health care costs and food price elasticities, we simulated the effect of taxes on saturated fat, salt, sugar, and sugar-sweetened beverages and a subsidy on fruits and vegetables, over the lifetime of the Australian population. The sizes of the taxes and subsidy were set such that, when combined as a package, there would be a negligible effect on average weekly expenditure on food (<1% change). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the interventions individually, then determined the optimal combination based on maximising net monetary benefit at a threshold of AU$50,000 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY). The simulations suggested that the combination of taxes and subsidy might avert as many as 470,000 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 420,000 to 510,000) in the Australian population of 22 million, with a net cost-saving of AU$3.4 billion (95% UI: AU$2.4 billion to AU$4.6 billion; US$2.3 billion) to the health sector. Of the taxes evaluated, the sugar tax produced the biggest estimates of health gain (270,000 [95% UI: 250,000 to 290,000] DALYs averted), followed by the salt tax (130,000 [95% UI: 120,000 to 140,000] DALYs), the saturated fat tax (97,000 [95% UI: 77,000 to 120,000] DALYs), and the sugar-sweetened beverage tax (12,000 [95% UI: 2,100 to 21,000] DALYs). The fruit and vegetable subsidy (-13,000 [95% UI: -44,000 to 18,000] DALYs) was a cost-effective addition to the package of taxes. However, it did not necessarily lead to a net health benefit for the population when modelled as an intervention on its own, because of the possible adverse cross-price elasticity effects on consumption of other foods (e.g., foods high in saturated fat and salt). The study suggests that taxes and subsidies on foods and beverages can potentially be combined to achieve substantial improvements in population health and cost-savings to the health sector. However, the magnitude of health benefits is sensitive to measures of price elasticity, and further work is needed to incorporate potential benefits or harms associated with changes in other foods and nutrients that are not currently modelled, such as red and processed meats and fibre.

CONCLUSIONS

With potentially large health benefits for the Australian population and large benefits in reducing health sector spending on the treatment of non-communicable diseases, the formulation of a tax and subsidy package should be given a more prominent role in Australia's public health nutrition strategy.

The Eatwell Guide: Modelling the Health Implications of Incorporating New Sugar and Fibre Guidelines

OBJECTIVE

To model population health impacts of dietary changes associated with the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (the 'Eatwell Guide').

METHOD

Using multi-state lifetable methods, we modelled the impact of dietary changes on cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers over the lifetime of the current UK population. From this model, we determined change in life expectancy and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) that could be averted.

RESULTS

Changing the average diet to that recommended in the new Eatwell Guide, without increasing total energy intake, could increase average life expectancy by 5.4 months (95% uncertainty interval: 4.7 to 6.2) for men and 4.0 months (3.4 to 4.6) for women; and avert 17.9 million (17.6 to 18.2) DALYs over the lifetime of the current population. A large proportion of the health benefits are from prevention of type 2 diabetes, with 440,000 (400,000 to 480,000) new cases prevented in men and 340,000 (310,000 to 370,000) new cases prevented in women, over the next ten years. Prevention of cardiovascular diseases and colorectal cancer is also large. However, if the diet recommended in the new Eatwell Guide is achieved with an accompanying increase in energy intake (and thus an increase in body mass index), around half the potential improvements in population health will not be realised.

CONCLUSIONS

The dietary changes required to meet recommendations in the Eatwell Guide, which include eating more fruits and vegetables and less red and processed meats and dairy products, are large. However, the potential population health benefits are substantial.

The impact of dietary risk factors on the burden of non-communicable diseases in Ethiopia: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

BACKGROUND

The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has increased in sub-Saharan countries, including Ethiopia. The contribution of dietary behaviours to the NCD burden in Ethiopia has not been evaluated. This study, therefore, aimed to assess diet-related burden of disease in Ethiopia between 1990 and 2013.

METHOD

We used the 2013 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to estimate deaths, years of life lost (YLLs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to eight food types, five nutrients and fibre intake. Dietary exposure was estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression. The effect size of each diet-disease pair was obtained based on meta-analyses of prospective observational studies and randomized controlled trials. A comparative risk assessment approach was used to quantify the proportion of NCD burden associated with dietary risk factors.

RESULTS

In 2013, dietary factors were responsible for 60,402 deaths (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 44,943-74,898) in Ethiopia-almost a quarter (23.0%) of all NCD deaths. Nearly nine in every ten diet-related deaths (88.0%) were from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and 44.0% of all CVD deaths were related to poor diet. Suboptimal diet accounted for 1,353,407 DALYs (95% UI: 1,010,433-1,672,828) and 1,291,703 YLLs (95% UI: 961,915-1,599,985). Low intake of fruits and vegetables and high intake of sodium were the most important dietary factors. The proportion of NCD deaths associated with low fruit consumption slightly increased (11.3% in 1990 and 11.9% in 2013). In these years, the rate of burden of disease related to poor diet slightly decreased; however, their contribution to NCDs remained stable.

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary behaviour contributes significantly to the NCD burden in Ethiopia. Intakes of diet low in fruits and vegetables and high in sodium are the leading dietary risks. To effectively mitigate the oncoming NCD burden in Ethiopia, multisectoral interventions are required; and nutrition policies and dietary guidelines should be developed.

The Mediterranean healthy eating, ageing, and lifestyle (MEAL) study: rationale and study design

There is accumulating evidence suggesting that Mediterranean lifestyles, including nutrition and sleeping patterns as well as social integration, may play a role in reducing age-related diseases. However, the literature is mostly deficient of evidence provided by Italian Mediterranean islands that more closely adhered to the originally described lifestyles. In this paper, we described the rationale and the study design of the Mediterranean healthy Eating, Ageing, and Lifestyle (MEAL) study, a prospective population-based cohort established in Sicily, southern Italy. The main exposures investigated are classical determinants of health, including demographic, nutritional habits, smoking and physical activity status, as well as eating-related behaviors, sleeping habits, sun exposure, social resources, and perceived stress. Anthropometric measurements will be collected. The main outcomes included depression, quality of life, and, after the follow-up period, also cardiovascular disease and cancer. The MEAL study may provide important data to increase our knowledge regarding the prevalence, incidence, and risk factors of age-related disorders in the Mediterranean region.

Can policy ameliorate socioeconomic inequities in obesity and obesity-related behaviours? A systematic review of the impact of universal policies on adults and children

This systematic review examined the impact of universal policies on socioeconomic inequities in obesity, dietary and physical activity behaviours among adults and children. PRISMA-Equity guidelines were followed. Database searches spanned from 2004 to August 2015. Eligible studies assessed the impact of universal policies on anthropometric, dietary or physical activity-related outcomes in adults or children according to socioeconomic position. Thirty-six studies were included. Policies were classified as agentic, agento-structural or structural, and their impact on inequities was rated as positive, neutral, negative or mixed according to the dominant associations observed. Most policies had neutral impacts on obesity-related inequities regardless of whether they were agentic (60% neutral), agento-structural (68% neutral) or structural (67% neutral). The proportion of positive impacts was similar across policy types (10% agentic, 18% agento-structural and 11% structural), with some differences for negative impacts (30% agentic, 14% agento-structural and 22% structural). The majority of associations remained neutral when stratified by participant population, implementation level and socioeconomic position measures and by anthropometric and behavioural outcomes. Fiscal measures had consistently neutral or positive impacts on inequities. Findings suggest an important role for policy in addressing obesity in an equitable manner and strengthen the case for implementing a broad complement of policies spanning the agency-structure continuum.

Using political science to progress public health nutrition: a systematic review

Objective

Poor dietary intake is the most important behavioural risk factor affecting health globally. Despite this, there has been little investment in public health nutrition policy actions. Policy process theories from the field of political science can aid understanding why policy decisions have occurred and identify how to influence ongoing or future initiatives. The present review aims to examine public health nutrition policy literature and identify whether a policy process theory has been used to analyse the process.

Design

Electronic databases were searched systematically for studies examining policy making in public health nutrition in high-income, democratic countries.

Setting

International, national, state and local government jurisdictions within high-income, democratic countries.

Subjects

Individuals and organisations involved in the nutrition policy-making process.

Results

Sixty-three studies met the eligibility criteria, most were conducted in the USA and a majority focused on obesity. The analysis demonstrates an accelerating trend in the number of nutrition policy papers published annually and an increase in the diversity of nutrition topics examined. The use of policy process theory was observed from 2003; however, it was utilised by only 14 % of the reviewed papers.

Conclusions

There is limited research into the nutrition policy process in high-income countries. While there has been a small increase in the use of policy process theory from 2003, an opportunity to expand its use is evident. We suggest that nutrition policy making would benefit from a pragmatic approach that ensures those trying to influence or understand the policy-making process are equipped with basic knowledge around these theories.

Government action on diabetes prevention: time to try something new

Type 2 diabetes mellitus, driven by overweight and obesity linked to unhealthy diets, is the fastest-growing non-communicable disease in Australia. Halting the rise of diabetes will require a paradigm shift from personal to shared responsibility, with greater accountability from Australian governments and the food industry. It will also require governments to try something different to the prevailing approaches emphasising education and the provision of information. We propose four priority areas where government regulation could strengthen Australia's response. Those areas relate to mandatory front-of-pack food labelling, regulating junk food advertising, better oversight of food reformulation and taxing sugar-sweetened beverages.

Healthy food subsidies and unhealthy food taxation: A systematic review of the evidence

The Global Burden of Disease Study and related studies report unhealthy diet is the leading risk for death and disability globally. Given the evidence associating diet and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), international and national health bodies including the World Health Organization and United Nations have called for population health interventions to improve diet as a means to target NCDs. One of the proposed interventions is to ensure healthy foods/beverages are more accessible to purchasers and unhealthy ones less accessible via fiscal policy, namely taxation and subsidies. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the evidence base to assess the effect of healthy food/beverage subsidies and unhealthy food/beverage taxation. A comprehensive review was conducted by searching PubMed, Medline, and Google Scholar for peer-reviewed publications and seventy-eight studies were identified for inclusion in this review. This review was performed in keeping with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidance. Although moderate in quality, there was consistent evidence that taxation and subsidy intervention influenced dietary behaviors. The quality, level and strength of evidence along with identified gaps in research support the need for further policies and ongoing evaluation of population-wide food/beverage subsidies and taxation. To maximize success and effect, this review suggests that food taxes and subsidies should be a minimum of 10 to 15% and preferably used in tandem. Implementation of population-wide polices for taxation and subsides with ongoing evaluation of intended and unintended effects are supported by this review.