Evaluation of the Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Mortality Risk in Preterm Infants with Necrotizing Enterocolitis

Methods of identifying surgical Necrotizing Enterocolitis-a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Current data suggests potential benefit of earlier surgery for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) however this requires accurate prognostication early in the disease course. This study aims to identify and determine the effectiveness of previously reported methods or tests for the identification of surgical NEC.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis with registration on PROSPERO including articles describing a method of identifying surgical NEC. Outcomes of interest were effectiveness and repeatability of index test.

RESULTS

Of the 190 full-text articles screened, 90 studies were included which contained 114 methods of identifying surgical NEC in 9546 infants. Of these methods, 44 were a scoring system, 37 a single biomarker, 24 an imaging method, and 9 an invasive method. Sensitivity and specificity ranged from 12.8-100% to 13-100%, respectively. Some methods (9.6%) provided insufficient methods for repeatability within clinical practice or research. Meta-analyses were possible for only 2 methods, the metabolic derangement 7 score and abdominal ultrasound.

CONCLUSIONS

A range of methods for identifying surgical NEC have been identified with varying overall performance and uncertainties about reproducibility and superiority of any method. External validation in large multicentre datasets should allow direct comparison of accuracy and prospective study should evaluate impact on clinical outcomes.

IMPACT

Earlier identification of need for surgery in necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) has the potential to improve the unfavourable outcomes in this condition. As such, many methods have been developed and reported to allow earlier identification of surgical NEC. This study is the first synthesis of the literature which identifies previously reported methods and the effectiveness of these. Many methods, including scoring systems and biomarkers, appear effective for prognostication in NEC and external validation is now required in multicentre datasets prior to clinical utility.

Clinical Decision Support for Improved Neonatal Care: The Development of a Machine Learning Model for the Prediction of Late-onset Sepsis and Necrotizing Enterocolitis

OBJECTIVE

To develop an artificial intelligence-based software system for predicting late-onset sepsis (LOS) and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) in infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU).

STUDY DESIGN

Single-center, retrospective cohort study, conducted in the NICU of the Antwerp University Hospital. Continuous monitoring data of 865 preterm infants born at <32 weeks gestational age, admitted to the NICU in the first week of life, were used to train an XGBoost machine learning (ML) algorithm for LOS and NEC prediction in a cross-validated setup. Afterward, the model's performance was assessed on an independent test set of 148 patients (internal validation).

RESULTS

The ML model delivered hourly risk predictions with an overall sensitivity of 69% (142/206) for all LOS/NEC episodes and 81% (67/83) for severe LOS/NEC episodes. The model showed a median time gain of ≤10 hours (IQR, 3.1-21.0 hours), compared with historical clinical diagnosis. On the complete retrospective dataset, the ML model made 721 069 predictions, of which 9805 (1.3%) depicted a LOS/NEC probability of ≥0.15, resulting in a total alarm rate of <1 patient alarm-day per week. The model reached a similar performance on the internal validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

Artificial intelligence technology can assist clinicians in the early detection of LOS and NEC in the NICU, which potentially can result in clinical and socioeconomic benefits. Additional studies are required to quantify further the effect of combining artificial and human intelligence on patient outcomes in the NICU.

Development of a Prediction Model for Surgery or Early Mortality at the Time of Initial Assessment for Necrotizing Enterocolitis

OBJECTIVE

 No available scale, at the time of initial evaluation for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), accurately predicts, that is, with an area under the curve (AUC) ≥0.9, which preterm infants will undergo surgery for NEC stage III or die within a week.

STUDY DESIGN

 This is a retrospective cohort study (n = 261) of preterm infants with <33 weeks' gestation or <1,500 g birthweight with either suspected or with definite NEC born at Parkland Hospital between 2009 and 2021. A prediction model using the new HASOFA SCORE (H: yperglycemia, H: yperkalemia, use of inotropes for H: ypotension during the prior week, A: cidemia, Neonatal S: equential O: rgan F: ailure A: ssessment [nSOFA: ] score) was compared with a similar model using the nSOFA score.

RESULTS

 Among 261 infants, 112 infants had NEC stage I, 68 with NEC stage II, and 81 with NEC stage III based on modified Bell's classification. The primary outcome, surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week, occurred in 81 infants (surgery in 66 infants and death in 38 infants). All infants with pneumoperitoneum or abdominal compartment syndrome either died or had surgery. The HASOFA and the nSOFA scores were evaluated in 254 and 253 infants, respectively, at the time of the initial workup for NEC. Both models were internally validated. The HASOFA model was a better predictor of surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week than the nSOFA model, with greater AUC 0.909 versus 0.825, respectively, p < 0.001. Combining HASOFA at initial assessment with concurrent or later presence of abdominal wall erythema or portal gas improved the prediction surgery for NEC stage III or death with AUC 0.942 or 0.956, respectively.

CONCLUSION

 Using this new internally validated prediction model, surgery for NEC stage III or death within a week can be accurately predicted at the time of initial assessment for NEC.

KEY POINTS

· No available scale, at initial evaluation, accurately predicts which preterm infants will undergo surgery for NEC stage III or die within a week.. · In this retrospective cohort study of 261 preterm infants with either suspected or definite NEC we developed a new prediction model (HASOFA score).. · The HASOFA-model had high discrimination (AUC 0.909) and excellent calibration and was internally validated..

Neonatal sequential organ failure assessment score within 72 h after delivery reliably predicts bronchopulmonary dysplasia in very preterm infants

Background

The neonatal sequential organ failure assessment (nSOFA) score is an operational definition of organ dysfunction employed to predict sepsis-associated mortality. However, the relationship between the nSOFA score and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) has not been investigated clearly. This study evaluates whether the nSOFA score within 72 h after delivery could be used to predict the occurrence of BPD in very preterm infants.

Methods

In this retrospective, single-center cohort study, preterm infants born between 2019 and 2021 were investigated, the nSOFA score was calculated from medical records after admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) within 72 h after delivery, and the peak value was used for calculation. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between the nSOFA score and BPD. Propensity score matching and subgroup analysis were performed to verify the reliability of the results.

Results

Of 238 infants meeting the inclusion criteria, 93 infants (39.1%) were diagnosed with BPD. The receiver operating characteristic curve of the nSOFA score in predicting BPD was 0.790 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.731-0.849]. The logistic regression model showed that an increment of one in the nSOFA score was related to a 2.09-fold increase in the odds of BPD (95% CI: 1.57-2.76) and 6.36-fold increase when the nSOFA score was higher than 1.5 (95% CI: 2.73-14.79).

Conclusions

The nSOFA score within 72 h after delivery is independently related to BPD and can be used to identify high-risk infants and implement early interventions.

Evaluation of the Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Mortality Risk in Neonates with Early-Onset Infection

BACKGROUND

The discriminative utility of the neonatal sequential organ failure assessment (nSOFA) for early-onset sepsis (EOS) mortality in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the study was to determine the utility of nSOFA for EOS mortality.

METHODS

Multicenter, retrospective cohort study of NICU patients with EOS between 2012 and 2023. nSOFA scores of survivors and non-survivors were compared, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) for mortality was calculated.

RESULTS

104 subjects were identified (88 lived, 16 died). AUROC at blood culture collection (T0), 6 h after collection (T6), and the maximum nSOFA at T0 or T6 (T0-6max) were 0.76 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.91), 0.89 (0.80, 0.99), and 0.87 (0.77, 0.97), respectively. Analyses restricted to birthweight (<1.5, <1 kg) or gestational age (<32, <29 week) cutoffs revealed AUROC ranges of 0.86-0.92 for T6 and 0.82-0.84 for T0-6max.

CONCLUSIONS

The nSOFA showed good-to-excellent discrimination of mortality among infants with EOS in the NICU.

Sequential organ failure assessment scores to predict outcomes: from adults to neonates

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Organ dysfunction severity scores (sequential organ failure assessment or SOFA) are commonly used in the adult and pediatric populations when assessing risk of mortality and adverse outcomes from sepsis. In contrast to sepsis definition in adults and children, clinical and laboratory criteria for defining neonatal sepsis have been inconclusive. More recently, studies have attempted to better understand the clinical progression of neonatal sepsis and associated mortality. This data has guided the development of a neonatal SOFA (nSOFA) score, based on common patterns of organ dysfunction observed in this population.

RECENT FINDINGS

Although SOFA scores in the adult and pediatric populations have their limitations with moderate sensitivities and specificities depending on the clinical setting, the nSOFA score has been validated in predicting sepsis attributable mortality in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants across several patient cohorts. Furthermore, the nSOFA score has been adapted for use in neonatal disease states, other than sepsis, with similar prognostic utility.

SUMMARY

Utilizing an nSOFA scoring system for prediction of sepsis attributable mortality in preterm infants allows for targeted interventions based on risk stratification, as well as better delineation of neonatal sepsis with subsequent improvements in research and patient safety outcomes.

Data-driven longitudinal characterization of neonatal health and morbidity

Although prematurity is the single largest cause of death in children under 5 years of age, the current definition of prematurity, based on gestational age, lacks the precision needed for guiding care decisions. Here, we propose a longitudinal risk assessment for adverse neonatal outcomes in newborns based on a deep learning model that uses electronic health records (EHRs) to predict a wide range of outcomes over a period starting shortly before conception and ending months after birth. By linking the EHRs of the Lucile Packard Children's Hospital and the Stanford Healthcare Adult Hospital, we developed a cohort of 22,104 mother-newborn dyads delivered between 2014 and 2018. Maternal and newborn EHRs were extracted and used to train a multi-input multitask deep learning model, featuring a long short-term memory neural network, to predict 24 different neonatal outcomes. An additional cohort of 10,250 mother-newborn dyads delivered at the same Stanford Hospitals from 2019 to September 2020 was used to validate the model. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve at delivery exceeded 0.9 for 10 of the 24 neonatal outcomes considered and were between 0.8 and 0.9 for 7 additional outcomes. Moreover, comprehensive association analysis identified multiple known associations between various maternal and neonatal features and specific neonatal outcomes. This study used linked EHRs from more than 30,000 mother-newborn dyads and would serve as a resource for the investigation and prediction of neonatal outcomes. An interactive website is available for independent investigators to leverage this unique dataset: https://maternal-child-health-associations.shinyapps.io/shiny_app/.

Assessment of Severity and Prediction of Outcomes in Premature Newborns Based on the nSOFA Scale

The objective: to evaluate the applicability of the nSOFA scale as a predictor of an unfavorable outcome in premature newborns.

Subjects. The study was designed as retrospective and observational. The study enrolled 109 newborns with a gestational age of ≤ 32 weeks of pregnancy (birth weight 1,071 (772‒1,451) g, gestational age 29 (26‒32) weeks, 22 (20,4%) patients died. nSOFA scores were determined based on the first 72 hours after birth, and a peak values were used for analysis. Death was considered an unfavorable outcome.

Results. The nSOFA score > 3 was associated with a odds ratio = 2.5 (CI 1.39–4.64, p = 0.002) for an unfavorable outcome. The area under the ROC curve was 0.796 (95% CI = 0.763–0.827).

Conclusion. The nSOFA scale is an acceptable tool for measuring the severity of organ dysfunction and predicting mortality in premature newborns, regardless of the etiology of the disease.

Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (nSOFA) Score within 72 Hours after Birth Reliably Predicts Mortality and Serious Morbidity in Very Preterm Infants

The aim of this study was to assess the applicability of the neonatal sequential organ failure assessment score (nSOFA) within 72 h after delivery as a predictor for mortality and adverse outcome in very preterm neonates. Inborn neonates <32 weeks of gestation were evaluated. The nSOFA scores were calculated from medical records in the first 72 h after birth and the peak value was used for analysis. Death or composite morbidity at hospital discharge defined the adverse outcome. Composite morbidity consisted of chronic lung disease, intraventricular haemorrhage ≥grade III, periventricular leukomalacia and necrotizing enterocolitis. Among 423 enrolled infants (median birth weight 1070 g, median gestational age 29 weeks), 27 died and 91 developed composite morbidity. Death or composite morbidity was associated with organ dysfunction as assessed by nSOFA, systemic inflammatory response, and low birthweight. The score >2 was associated with OR 2.5 (CI 1.39−4.64, p = 0.002) for the adverse outcome. Area under the curve of ROC was 0.795 (95% CI = 0.763−0.827). The use of nSOFA seems to be reasonable for predicting mortality and morbidity in very preterm infants. It constitutes a suitable basis to measure the severity of organ dysfunction regardless of the cause.