A rapid preadmission method for predicting inpatient course of disease for patients with HIV-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia

Mortality-related risks in treatment-naive hospitalized AIDS patients with opportunistic infections in Southwest China

Aim: We aimed to profile the characteristics and analyze the risk factors related to mortality in treatment-naive hospitalized AIDS patients with opportunistic infections (OIs) in Southwest China. Materials & methods: Two hundred and four treatment-naive patients diagnosed with AIDS-related OIs that were hospitalized in our hospital were enrolled. Their demographics, medical data and prognosis were described and analyzed. Result: Most patients were middle-aged married or cohabiting males. The infections in the respiratory system were the major OIs and leading cause of mortality. High CRP and IL-6 were identified as independent risk factors predicting mortality. Conclusion: Middle-aged treatment-naive males were the major victims of AIDS-related OIs. Respiratory infection should be monitored, and early intervention should be applied to improve prognosis if there is high CRP or IL-6 found.

Prognostic indicators in the World Health Organization's algorithm for seriously ill HIV-infected inpatients with suspected tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Criteria for the 2007 WHO algorithm for diagnosing tuberculosis among HIV-infected seriously ill patients are the presence of one or more danger signs (respiratory rate > 30/min, heart rate > 120/min, temperature > 39 °C, and being unable to walk unaided) and cough ≥ 14 days. Determining predictors of poor outcomes among HIV-infected inpatients presenting with WHO danger signs could result in improved treatment and diagnostic algorithms.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of inpatients presenting with any duration of cough and WHO danger signs to two regional hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality up to 56 days post-discharge, and the secondary outcome a composite of any one of: hospital admission for > 7 days, died in hospital, transfer to a tertiary level or tuberculosis hospital. We first assessed the WHO danger signs as predictors of poor outcomes, then assessed the added value of other variables selected a priori for their ability to predict mortality in common respiratory opportunistic infections (CD4 count, body mass index (BMI), being on antiretroviral therapy (ART), hypotension, and confusion) by comparing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of the two multivariate models.

RESULTS

484 participants were enrolled, median age 36, 66% women, 53% had tuberculosis confirmed on culture. The 56-day mortality was 13.2%. Inability to walk unaided, low BMI, low CD4 count, and being on ART were independently associated with poor outcomes. The multivariate model of the WHO danger signs showed a ROC AUC of 0.649 (95% CI 0.582-0.717) for predicting 56-day mortality, which improved to ROC AUC of 0.740 (95% CI 0.681-0.800; p = 0.004 for comparison between the two ROC AUCs) with the multivariate model including the a priori selected variables. Findings were similar in sub-analyses of participants with culture-positive tuberculosis and with cough duration ≥ 14 days.

CONCLUSION

The study design prevented a rigorous evaluation of the prognostic value of the WHO danger signs. Our prognostic model could result in improved algorithms, but needs to be validated.

Clinical and immunologic predictors of death after an acute opportunistic infection: results from ACTG A5164

BACKGROUND

In the pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) era, markers of increased disease severity during an acute opportunistic infection (OI) were associated with mortality. Even with ART, mortality remains high during the first year after an OI in persons with advanced HIV infection, but it is unclear whether previous predictors of mortality remain valid in the current era.

OBJECTIVE

To determine clinical and immunological predictors of death after an OI.

METHODS

We used clinical data and stored plasma from ACTG A5164, a multicenter study evaluating the optimal timing of ART during a nontuberculous OI. We developed Cox models evaluating associations between clinical parameters and plasma marker levels at entry and time to death over the first 48 weeks after the diagnosis of OI. We developed multivariable models incorporating only clinical parameters, only plasma marker levels, or both.

RESULTS

The median CD4+ T-cell count in study participants at baseline was 29 cells/µL. Sixty-four percent of subjects had Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP). Twenty-three of 282 (8.2%) subjects died. In univariate analyses, entry mycobacterial infection, OI number, hospitalization, low albumin, low hemoglobin, lower CD4, and higher IL-8 and sTNFrII levels and lower IL-17 levels were associated with mortality. In the combined model using both clinical and immunologic parameters, the presence of an entry mycobacterial infection and higher sTNFrII levels were significantly associated with death.

CONCLUSIONS

In the ART era, clinical risk factors for death previously identified in the pre-ART era remain predictive. Additionally, activation of the innate immune system is associated with an increased risk of death following an acute OI.

Predicting mortality from HIV-associated Pneumocystis pneumonia at illness presentation: an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although the use of antiretroviral therapy has led to dramatic declines in AIDS-associated mortality, Pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP) remains a leading cause of death in HIV-infected patients.

OBJECTIVES

To measure mortality, identify predictors of mortality at time of illness presentation and derive a PCP mortality prediction rule that stratifies patients by risk for mortality.

METHODS

An observational cohort study with case note review of all HIV-infected persons with a laboratory diagnosis of PCP at San Francisco General Hospital from 1997 to 2006.

RESULTS

451 patients were diagnosed with PCP on 524 occasions. In-hospital mortality was 10.3%. Multivariate analysis identified five significant predictors of mortality: age (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) per 10-year increase, 1.69; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.65; p = 0.02); recent injection drug use (AOR 2.86; 95% CI 1.28 to 6.42; p = 0.01); total bilirubin >0.6 mg/dl (AOR 2.59; 95% CI 1.19 to 5.62; p = 0.02); serum albumin <3 g/dl (AOR 3.63; 95% CI 1.72-7.66; p = 0.001); and alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient >or=50 mm Hg (AOR 3.02; 95% CI 1.41 to 6.47; p = 0.004). Using these five predictors, a six-point PCP mortality prediction rule was derived that stratifies patients according to increasing risk of mortality: score 0-1, 4%; score 2-3, 12%; score 4-5, 48%.

CONCLUSIONS

The PCP mortality prediction rule stratifies patients by mortality risk at the time of illness presentation and should be validated as a clinical tool.

A rapid staging system for predicting mortality from HIV-associated community-acquired pneumonia

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) accounts for an increasing proportion of the pulmonary infections in individuals with HIV infection. During the mid-1990s, hospital mortality rates for HIV-associated CAP ranged from 0 to 28%. While hospital differences in case mix may account for mortality rate variation, few methods to evaluate illness severity for HIV-associated CAP have been reported previously. The study objective was to develop a staging system for categorizing mortality risk of patients with HIV-associated CAP using information available prior to hospital admission.

DESIGN/SETTING/PATIENTS

Retrospective medical records review of 1,415 patients hospitalized with HIV-associated CAP from 1995 to 1997 at 86 hospitals in seven metropolitan areas.

MEASUREMENTS

In-patient mortality rate.

RESULTS

Hierarchically optimal classification tree analysis was used to develop a preadmission staging system for predicting inpatient mortality. The overall inpatient mortality rate was 9.1%. The significant predictors of mortality included the presence of neurologic symptoms, respiratory rate > or = 25 breaths/min, and creatinine > 1.2 mg/dL. The model identified a five-category staging system, with the mortality rate increasing by stage: 2.3% for stage 1, 5.8% for stage 2, 12.9% for stage 3, 22.0% for stage 4, and 40.5% for stage 5. The classification accuracy of the model was 85.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our staging system categorizes inpatient mortality risk for patients with HIV-associated CAP using three routinely available variables. The staging system may be useful for guiding clinical decisions about the intensity of patient care and for case-mix adjustment in future studies addressing variation in hospital mortality rates.

Electrocardiogram in Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia: can it be used as a prognostic variable?

OBJECTIVE

Many prognostic variables have been studied in patients with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The role of the electrocardiogram in this setting has not been previously evaluated. We analyzed the admission electrocardiogram in patients with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and AIDS in an attempt to identify electrocardiogram findings that could be associated with adverse clinical outcomes and worse prognostic variables.

DESIGN

A retrospective medical chart review.

SETTING

All confirmed cases of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in patients positive for human immunodeficiency virus admitted to Albert Einstein Medical Center from 1994 to 2000.

METHODS

Patients were assigned increasing severity ranks based on the findings on the admission electrocardiogram (normal sinus rhythm, sinus tachycardia, and right ventricular strain pattern). Data were extracted regarding study outcomes (admission to intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, and hospital mortality) and prognostic variables.

MAIN RESULTS

Of the 40 study patients, 14 (35%) had normal sinus rhythm, 15 (37.5%) had sinus tachycardia, and 11 (27.5%) presented with signs of right ventricular strain. The number of admissions to the intensive care unit, use of mechanical ventilation, and hospital mortality rate all increased with the severity of the electrocardiogram findings (p < or =.03). The serum lactate dehydrogenase concentrations and the alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient both increased with the severity of the electrocardiogram findings (p < or =.02).

CONCLUSION

Electrocardiogram findings of sinus tachycardia and right heart strain are common in Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. These findings are associated with adverse clinical outcomes as well as worsening of prognostic variables. The electrocardiogram may be useful in predicting outcome in patients with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia.

HIV-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in older patients hospitalized in the early HAART era

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether older age continues to influence patterns of care and in-hospital mortality for hospitalized persons with HIV-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP), as determined in our prior study from the 1980s.

DESIGN

Retrospective chart review.

PATIENTS/SETTING

Patients (1,861) with HIV-related PCP at 78 hospitals in 8 cities from 1995 to 1997.

MEASUREMENTS

Medical record notation of possible HIV infection; alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient; CD4 lymphocyte count; presence or absence of wasting; timely use of anti-PCP medications; in-hospital mortality.

MAIN RESULTS

Compared to younger patients, patients > or =50 years of age were less likely to have HIV mentioned in their progress notes (70% vs 82%, P <.001), have mild or moderately severe PCP cases at admission (89% vs 96%, P <.002), receive anti-PCP medications within the first 2 days of hospitalization (86% vs 93%, P <.002), and survive hospitalization (82% vs 90%, P <.003). However, age was not a significant predictor of mortality after adjustment for severity of PCP and timeliness of therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

While inpatient PCP mortality has improved by 50% in the past decade, 2-fold age-related mortality differences persist. As in the 1980s, these differences are associated with lower rates of recognition of HIV, increased severity of illness at admission, and delays in initiation of PCP-specific treatments among older individuals--factors suggestive of delayed recognition of HIV infection, pneumonia, and PCP, respectively. Continued vigilance for the possibility of HIV and HIV-related PCP among persons > or =50 years of age who present with new pulmonary symptoms should be encouraged.

Prognostic markers of short-term mortality in AIDS-associated Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Since 1990, corticosteroids have been recommended as adjunctive therapy for patients with AIDS-associated Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) and respiratory failure. We hypothesized that the natural course of AIDS-associated PCP has changed in the era of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy.

OBJECTIVE

To study variables obtained on hospital admission for possible prognostic value of short-term (3-month) outcome of PCP.

DESIGN AND PATIENTS

Prospective observational study of 176 consecutive HIV-1-infected individuals with PCP between 1990 and 1999.

METHOD

Cox proportional-hazards regression models.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that age, one or more prior episodes of PCP, use of antimicrobial therapy other than trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMZ), use of PCP prophylaxis at diagnosis, and culture of cytomegalovirus (CMV) in BAL predicted progression to death within 3 months. After adjustment, age (relative risk [RR], 4.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 9.3), initial antimicrobial therapy other than TMP-SMZ (RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.2 to 8.5), use of PCP prophylaxis (RR, 5.6; 95% CI, 2.2 to 14.4), and culture of CMV in BAL fluid (RR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.3 to 5.6) remained independent predictors of a poor outcome. In contrast, neither PO(2) nor serum lactate dehydrogenase, which in earlier studies were identified as prognostic markers, were predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Age, initial anti-PCP therapy, use of PCP prophylaxis, and BAL CMV status may be useful predictors of outcome of PCP in patients treated in the era of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy.

Improvements in outcomes of acute respiratory failure for patients with human immunodeficiency virus-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia

In the early 1990s, hospital survival among patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) and respiratory failure was poor, approximately 20%. We examined ICU use and outcomes for patients with acute respiratory failure from PCP from 1995 to 1997. We conducted a retrospective medical record review using a random sample of 71 hospitals in seven regions of the United States. Among 1,660 patients with confirmed or presumed PCP, 155 (9%) received mechanical ventilation for respiratory failure. Factors that predicted use of mechanical ventilation, independent of severity of illness on hospital admission, included African-American ethnicity and geographic location (p </= 0.002). Hospital survival for patients receiving mechanical ventilation was 38% (95% CI 30, 46). Controlling for severity of illness, patients who were on PCP prophylaxis prior to developing PCP were less likely to survive to hospital discharge (p </= 0.02). There were no significant differences in hospital survival regardless of whether patients had received less than or more than 5 d of PCP treatment prior to respiratory failure (39 versus 29%; p = 0.5). In conclusion, from 1995 to 1997, hospital survival after PCP requiring mechanical ventilation was approximately 40%. Physicians caring for patients with severe HIV-related PCP should be aware of the improvements in outcomes for this disease before making recommendations about withholding or withdrawing ventilatory support for respiratory failure.

A new preadmission staging system for predicting inpatient mortality from HIV-associated Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in the early highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era

A common severe complication of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has been Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP). Recently, with increasing use of PCP prophylaxis and multidrug antiretroviral therapy, the clinical manifestations of HIV infection have changed dramatically and the predictors of inpatient mortality for PCP may have also changed. We developed a new staging system for predicting inpatient mortality for patients with HIV-associated PCP admitted between 1995 and 1997. Trained abstractors performed chart reviews of 1,660 patients hospitalized with HIV-associated PCP between 1995 and 1997 at 78 hospitals in seven metropolitan areas in the United States. The overall inpatient mortality rate was 11.3%. Hierarchically optimal classification tree analysis identified an ordered five-category staging system based on three predictors: wasting, alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient (AaPO(2)), and serum albumin level. The mortality rate increased with stage: 3.7% for Stage 1, 8.5% for Stage 2, 16.1% for Stage 3, 23.3% for Stage 4, and 49.1% for Stage 5. This new staging system may be useful for severity of illness adjustment in the current era while exploring current variation in HIV-associated PCP inpatient mortality rates among hospitals and across cities.

AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in the era of adjunctive steroids: implication of BAL neutrophilia

Factors predictive of mortality in patients with AIDS and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) were identified before the introduction of adjunctive steroids, but they have not been reevaluated since. Because PCP still occurs in AIDS, remaining fatal in some cases, we conducted a multivariate analysis of factors predicting mortality in patients with HIV-positive PCP managed from 1990 to 1995, i.e., after the consensus conference on the use of adjunctive steroids. The predictive value of clinical, laboratory, and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) data at admission and during the course of PCP was studied retrospectively using multivariate methods, in 144 patients with AIDS. Overall mortality was 21.5%. The univariate analysis identified seven factors predictive of 90-d mortality: Pa(O(2)) on room air < 60 mm Hg, lactate dehydrogenase > 1,000 IU, albuminemia < 30 g/L, BAL neutrophilia > 10%, nosocomial infection, pneumothorax, and a need for mechanical ventilation. Four of these factors were independently associated with 90-d mortality in the multivariate analysis; among them, two were evaluable at admission, namely, Pa(O(2)) < 60 mm Hg on room air and BAL neutrophilia > 10%, and two during hospitalization, namely, the development of pneumothorax and a need for mechanical ventilation. Moreover, BAL neutrophilia was correlated to occurrence of pneumothorax and a need for mechanical ventilation. In the era of adjunctive steroid use, AIDS-related PCP remains fairly common. Two independent factors evaluable at admission, Pa(O(2)) on room air and BAL neutrophilia, are predictive of death.

Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia requiring intensive care management: survival and prognostic study in 110 patients with human immunodeficiency virus

OBJECTIVE

To perform a descriptive study of patients with acute respiratory failure secondary to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and to identify variables that are predictive of death within 3 months.

DESIGN

Case series study.

SETTING

Infectious disease intensive care unit (ICU) in a university hospital.

PATIENTS

Detailed clinical, laboratory, and ventilatory data were collected prospectively within 48 hrs of admission and during the ICU stay in 110 consecutive human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients requiring ICU management with or without mechanical ventilation for P. carinii pneumonia-related acute respiratory failure.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Continuous positive airway pressure was used initially in 66 (60%) patients. Among the 34 patients (31%) who required mechanical ventilation, including 12 at admission and 22 after failure of continuous positive airway pressure, 76% died. The 3-month mortality rate after ICU admission was estimated at 34.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25%-44%). The 1-yr survival rate was estimated at 47% (95% CI, 36%-58%). With successive multiple logistic regression models analyzing the relative prognostic importance of baseline clinical and laboratory tests variables, ventilation variables, and events in the ICU, only delayed mechanical ventilation after 3 days (odd ratio [OR], 6.7; 95% CI, 1.9-23.9), duration of mechanical ventilation of > or = 5 days (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.1-6.9), nosocomial infection (OR, 5.2; 95% CI, 2.1-12.9), and pneumothorax (OR, 5; 95% CI, 1.7-14.7) were predictive of death within 3 months of ICU admission. Among patients with delayed mechanical ventilation on day 3 or later and with a pneumothorax associated or not associated with a nosocomial infection, the predicted probability of 3-month death was close to 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that the most significant predictive factors of death were identifiable during the course of P. carinii pneumonia-related acute respiratory failure rather than at admission and can help in bedside decisions to withdraw intensive care support in such patients.

Associations of clinical parameters with health-related quality of life in hospitalized persons with HIV disease

To assess the associations of clinical parameters with health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in hospitalized patients with HIV a cross-sectional survey and medical record review was conducted. Medical record reviews for clinical data were completed for 217 hospitalized, HIV-positive individuals. HRQOL was measured in face-to-face interviews using a 44-item survey instrument that yielded 11 multi-item scales. Internal consistency reliability was adequate for the 11 HRQOL scales. HRQOL scores were significantly lower for our hospitalized sample compared to a previous sample of ambulatory clinical trial patients. As expected, individuals reporting more days spent in bed due to illness had significantly lower HRQOL than those reporting fewer days spent in bed due to illness. In addition, those with greater severity of illness had significantly lower HRQOL than persons with less severe illness. In multivariate models, severity of illness and the number of disability days due to illness were significantly associated with worse HRQOL, controlling for CD4 count, symptoms and other patient characteristics. Severity of illness and disability days due to illness are associated with poorer functioning and well-being in hospitalized persons with HIV disease. HRQOL measures are useful tools for assessing the effects of HIV disease on the day-to-day life of individuals with HIV disease.

Validation of the modified multisystem organ failure score as a predictor of mortality in patients with AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and respiratory failure

STUDY OBJECTIVES

To validate a previously developed multisystem organ failure (MSOF) score with and without the addition of the lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level as a predictor of survival to hospital discharge in patients with AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) and acute respiratory failure (ARF).

DESIGN

Retrospective chart review between April 1, 1991, and September 30, 1996.

SETTING

University-affiliated tertiary care center in downtown Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

PATIENTS

All patients with PCP-related ARF admitted to the ICU of St. Paul's Hospital during the study period.

INTERVENTIONS

As putative prognostic instruments, data were extracted regarding the APACHE II (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II), acute lung injury (ALI), AIDS, and modified MSOF scores, as well as LDH levels, at entry to the ICU. Patients were stratified based on an LDH level of < or > or = 2,000 U/L and this threshold was assessed in its predictability of outcome when added to each of the above scores. For APACHE II, the score was categorized in six groups and evaluated with and without inclusion of the LDH. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for LDH and for each score with and without the LDH level to assess accuracy of prediction. The area under each curve was calculated and compared to estimate the statistical significance of observed differences.

MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS

There were 40 admissions to the ICU of 38 patients with 52.5% mortality. The ALI and AIDS scores were not predictive of outcome. The modified MSOF and APACHE II scores were significant predictors of survival and the performance of both was enhanced by the addition of LDH.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the APACHE II and the modified MSOF scores were significant predictors of outcome in the patient population studied. These results validate the modified MSOF score as an effective predictor of survival to hospital discharge among patients with AIDS-related PCP who develop ARF and the performance of the score is enhanced by the addition of the LDH level.

Variations in intensive care unit utilization for patients with human immunodeficiency virus-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia: importance of hospital characteristics and geographic location

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether intensive care unit (ICU) use and outcomes for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia vary by hospital characteristics and geographic location.

DESIGN

Retrospective review of the medical records of 2,174 patients with HIV-related P. carinii pneumonia.

SETTING

Random sample of 73 private, nine public, and 14 Veterans Affairs hospitals in five cities (Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Miami, and Durham, NC).

PATIENTS

Stratified random sample of patients hospitalized with HIV-related P. carinii pneumonia from 1987 to 1990.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Among the 2,174 patients with P. carinii pneumonia, 398 (18%) patients received care in an ICU. ICU utilization varied significantly by patient and hospital characteristics, as well by as geographic location. Non-Hispanic whites, patients with Medicaid, and patients with a prior acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining illness were the least likely to receive care in an ICU. Patients in county- or state-owned hospitals and patients in hospitals with more P. carinii pneumonia-experience were also less likely to be cared for in an ICU. These differences in ICU utilization persisted when controlling for severity of illness, as well as other patient characteristics. Significant geographic variation in ICU utilization persisted after controlling for patient and hospital characteristics. Survival to hospital discharge after an ICU stay was significantly higher for patients without a prior acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining illness and for patients in hospitals with more P. carinii pneumonia experience.

CONCLUSIONS

We found significant variations in ICU utilization by hospital characteristics and geographic location that remained significant after controlling for severity of illness and patient sociodemographic characteristics. Hospital and geographic variations in ICU utilization may make it difficult to generalize ICU outcomes across different hospitals.

Pneumonia in AIDS patients in the critical care unit

Despite advances in prophylaxis and the reduction of mortality and morbidity resulting from highly active antiretroviral therapy, neumocystis pneumonia remains a common problem in HIV-infected patients. There are many possible causes for the continued prevalence of this condition. This article examines the characteristics, and some of the complex causes of P. carinii pneumonia in AIDS patients.

Variations in medical care for HIV-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia: a comparison of process and outcome at two hospitals

BACKGROUND

Institutional variation in the quality of medical care may be evaluated by examining process measures, such as use of diagnostic procedures or treatment modalities, or outcome measures, such as mortality. We undertook this study to examine variations in both process and outcome of care for patients with HIV-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) at two geographically diverse, HIV-experienced, public municipal hospitals.

DESIGN

Retrospective review of hospitalized patients diagnosed as having PCP cared for at two municipal hospitals from 1988 to 1990. At hospital A, charts of all patients diagnosed as having PCP were abstracted (n=209); at hospital B, a random sample of 15% were abstracted (=136).

RESULTS

Among all hospitalized patients diagnosed as having PCP, the frequency of making a definitive diagnosis of PCP (as opposed to treating empirically) differed markedly at the two hospitals (85% in hospital A vs 26% in hospital B; p<0.001), as did the use of intensive care (18% vs 3%; p<0.001) and "do-not-resuscitate" orders (39% vs 14%; p<0.001), although the timing of starting anti-Pneumocystis medications (89% vs 88% within the first 2 hospital days) and the use of corticosteroids (21% vs 23%) were similar. Despite differences in the process of care, survival rates were similar at the two institutions (75% vs 76%; p=0.8) and remained similar when logistic regression was used to control for demographic variables and severity of illness (odds ratio for survival, hospital B vs A, 1.2 [95% confidence interval, 0.7, 2.0]). The 95% confidence intervals (0.7, 2.0), however, were consistent with a considerable (and clinically significant) disparity in survival (from 30% lower to a twofold higher odds of survival). Sample size calculations showed that a sample of 10 cases in each hospital would be required to detect the observed difference in definitive diagnosis rates (85% vs 26%), but 722 cases in each hospital would be required to detect a relevant difference in mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The process of care for hospitalized patients with PCP in these two institutions differed considerably, but the survival rates were not significantly different, even after adjusting for confounding factors. While sample sizes available at the individual institutions were sufficient for evaluation of the process of care, they did not provide the power necessary to evaluate outcomes. Comparisons of outcomes such as mortality between individual hospitals may not have the statistical power to exclude important differences.

Care for the patient with AIDS in the ICU: outcomes and ethics

HIV infection and AIDS are common diagnoses in many intensive care units (ICUs) in the United States. Although Pneumocystis carinii currently represents only one quarter of all diagnoses for which HIV-infected persons are admitted to the ICU, it is the disease with the most clinically applicable outcome data and, therefore, is a model for ethical decision-making regarding patients with HIV infection in the ICU. Despite advances in diagnosis and treatment of HIV-related P. carinii, recent studies show that only 20% to 25% of the patients with acute respiratory failure survive to hospital discharge. Although many clinical markers correlate with survival, none of the individual markers or prediction scoring systems have the accuracy needed in clinical practice. One goal of predicting outcome in the ICU is to aid both the patient and the physician in making decisions about when to pursue aggressive therapy and when to withhold or withdraw such therapy. Because our ability to predict outcome is limited, advance directives and communication with patients and families about end-of-life medical care are of utmost importance. Even though it is not always possible for patients to predict, in advance, what they would want done in various hypothetical health care scenarios, quality communication between physicians, patients, and families with realistic discussion of outcomes and maintenance of hope and dignity can facilitate decisions about the use of intensive care for patients with AIDS.

U.S. hospital care for HIV-infected persons and the role of public, private, and Veterans Administration hospitals

Hospitals are a major provider of medical care for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons. Although utilization and patterns of care profiles in public and private hospitals have been evaluated for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP), one of the most costly and common severe complications of AIDS, information from Veterans Administration (VA) hospitals has not been reported previously. This article reports on inpatient care for PCP patients by obtaining data from VA, private, and public hospitals. Cost and resource utilization data were obtained from reviews of medical records, claims, and provider bills from 26 non-VA hospitals and 18 VA hospitals in 10 cities in the United States. Data on severity of illness, patterns of care, and outcomes for PCP were obtained from medical record reviews from 2,174 PCP cases treated in 82 non-VA and 14 VA hospitals in five U.S. cities. Estimates were made of the average costs and the rates of use of diagnostic tests, anti-PCP medications, and intensive care units for samples of public hospital, private hospital, and VA patients with PCP. With mean charges for a single PCP episode of $14,500 to $16,060, PCP remains one of thea most costly complications of AIDS. Although the severity of PCP illness at admission was greatest at public hospitals, the intensity of care was lowest: for frequency of cytologic diagnosis (48% at public, 62% at VA, and 66% at private hospitals), bronchoscopy (45% at public, 60% at VA, and 66% at private hospitals), and intensive care unit use (11% at public, 22% at VA, and 19% at private hospitals). In-hospital mortality rates for PCP also differed in the three types of hospitals (20% at public, 24% at VA, and 18% at private hospitals). Patterns of PCP care differ among VA, public, and private hospitals. Future studies on the HIV epidemic should include data collected from uniform data sources from VA hospitals, in addition to public and private hospitals, to provide insight on the processes of care and outcomes for HIV-infected persons.

Geographic variation in the management and outcome of patients with AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia

Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) is one of the most common reasons for the hospitalization of AIDS patients; however, geographic differences in PCP management have not been evaluated previously. Therefore, we abstracted data on socioeconomic characteristics, prior HIV care, severity of illness, timeliness and intensity of in-hospital care, duration of hospitalization, and survival from 1547 randomly selected medical records of patients hospitalized with AIDS-related PCP between 1987 and 1990 at 82 hospitals in Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina. Multivariate regression models were used to assess factors associated with longer hospital stays and increased inpatient mortality. Our results showed that in-hospital mortality ranged from 15% to 27%, bronchoscopy rates from 53% to 70%, and mean length of stay from 14 days to 23 days. Geographic variations in mortality were accounted for by differences in severity of illness at admission, insurance status, and in-hospital patient management. However, significant regional variations in hospital length of stay persisted, even after adjusting for patient demographics, severity of illness, and use of diagnostic and therapeutic care resources.

Pneumocystis carinii

Improved understanding of Pneumocystis carinii, in particular the widespread use of chemoprophylaxis, has resulted in a declining incidence of infection in patients infected with HIV since the late 1980s. Despite these advances, P. carinii pneumonia continues to represent an important cause of pulmonary disease in HIV-seropositive individuals who do not receive chemoprophylaxis or when breakthrough episodes occur. This article reviews the history, biology, clinical manifestations, prognostic markers, therapy, and chemoprophylaxis of P. carinii pneumonia in HIV-seropositive patients.

Pulmonary disease

This article has presented the reader with an overview of the pulmonary disorders that develop during the course of HIV disease with special emphasis on the more commonly encountered entities. This information is intended to prepare the clinician to recognize the hallmark characteristics of the various diseases as well as atypical features. Despite the advances in basic understanding of the clinicopathologic consequences of infection with HIV, a cure has not been realized. There has, however, been success in controlling some of the major pulmonary problems that adversely affect both the quality and the length of life for persons with AIDS. For most complications of HIV infection, prognosis ultimately depends not only on treatment of the specific problem, but also controlling the relentless process of progressive immunosuppression. Continued research into treatment or prevention of HIV infection itself is needed, but at present prevention, rapid diagnosis, and treatment of recognized problems remain an intermediary goal.

AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in older patients

MAIN RESULTS

Compared with younger patients, patients aged 50 years or older were less likely to have acquired HIV via intravenous drug use or homosexual contact (p = .0001). Older patients were more likely to have comorbid diseases (12% vs 4%; p = .0001), had more frequent neurologic findings on admission (19% vs 9%; p = .0001), and scored higher on a PCP-specific severity-of-illness scale indicating more severe disease (p = .0001). Older patients had more intensive care unit admissions and intubations (p = .0001). Patients aged 50 years or older were less likely to have a diagnosis of HIV mentioned in their progress notes during the first 2 days of admission (75% vs 85%; p = .0001), less likely to receive PCP-specific therapy within the first 2 hospital days (58% vs 76%; p = .0001), and more likely to receive steroids (32% vs 22%; p = .0001). Older patients had a greater in-hospital mortality (32% vs 18%; p = .0001). However, in logistic regression analysis with mortality as the outcome, the effect of older age was diminished when adjustments were made for insurance status, severity of illness, comorbidity, timely PCP therapy, and inpatient use of steroids.

CONCLUSIONS

Age differences in mortality for AIDS-related PCP may be explained by increased severity of presenting illness, underrecognition of HIV, and delay in initiation of PCP-specific therapy. Physicians may need to consider HIV-related infections for persons aged 50 years or older at risk of HIV infection.

Predictors of resource utilization for hospitalized patients with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP): a summary of effects from the multi-city study of quality of PCP care

To determine whether patient and hospital characteristics were significantly associated with variations in Pneumocystis carinii (PCP) care and outcomes, we analyzed the use of diagnostic tests, intensive care units (ICUs), anti-PCP medications for persons hospitalized with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related PCP, and hospital discharge status. We conducted retrospective chart reviews of a cohort of 2,174 patients with PCP hospitalized in 1987-1990. Outcomes included process of care for PCP and in-hospital mortality rates. Persons with PCP who were more severely ill at admission were more likely to have early medical care, to receive care in an intensive care unit, and to die in hospital. After we adjusted for differences in this severity of illness, we noted that Medicaid patients, injection drug users (IDUs), and patients treated at VA or county hospitals were significantly less likely than others to have diagnostic bronchoscopies and that persons covered by Medicaid, with a previous diagnosis of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), who did not receive prior zidovudine (AZT) or who received care in a VA hospital had the highest chances of in-hospital death. Insurance and risk group characteristics, severity of illness, and hospital characteristics appear to be the most important determinants of the intensity and timing of medical care and outcomes among patients hospitalized with PCP.

Outcome of AIDS patients requiring mechanical ventilation predicted by recursive partitioning

Mechanical ventilatory support (VS) is often required for patients with AIDS. Patients, and/or their surrogates often ask the likely outcome of this intervention. To answer this question, we have developed a classification tree using clinical data from 71 patients with AIDS identified from the discharge abstracts of two hospitals between January 1990 and September 1994. These data were obtained at the time of hospital admission prior to any treatment and before VS was initiated. Survival was defined as discharge from the hospital that occurred in 13 of 72 admissions reviewed. A classification tree was developed by binary recursive partitioning. The output of the resulting tree was adjusted to produce a positive predictive value for death of 100% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 94 to 100%) and a sensitivity and specificity of 98% (95% CI, 91 to 100%) and 100% (95% CI, 74 to 100%), respectively. The negative predictive value was 92% (95% CI, 64 to 100%). The tree predicted that patients with lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels less than 1,176 IU/L survived until hospital discharge, unless they had a positive blood culture, active tuberculosis prior to VS, a blood CD4 count less than 12 cells per cubic millimeter, or creatinine and hemoglobin values that were either above 2.4 mg/dL or less than 8.5 mg/dL, respectively. The remainder of the patients with an LDH level above 1,176 IU/L in this study died before hospital discharge. The classification tree requires prospective validation before it can be used as a predictive instrument. Nevertheless, this approach can be used to develop a concise summary of the local outcome experience of this circumstance in a manner that could be conveyed to patients and/or their surrogates.

Predicting in-hospital outcome in HIV-associated Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia

Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) in HIV-infected patients remains a life-threatening complication in the course of HIV infection. Despite effective treatment, mortality may still be as high as 10%. The identification of risk factors associated with a lethal outcome might be helpful as a guide to therapy for patients at risk and in the evaluation of new drugs with anti-pneumocystic activity. In a retrospective study 58 first episodes of HIV-associated PCP without prophylaxis were analyzed. Variables associated univariately with higher mortality were identified. A prognostic rule was established in a multivariate approach using canonical discriminant analysis. Cut-off values for parameters included were determined in order to allow a clinically applicable estimate of the individual risk. Variables associated with early mortality were hemoglobin, hematocrit, platelet count, albumin, total protein, gamma-globulins, and AaDO2. LDH values, percentage of neutrophils in the BAL, as well as the cellular immunologic state as indicated by CD4-cell count were not significantly associated with the outcome. The discriminant function yielded the best classification results with the inclusion of hemoglobin, albumin, and gamma-globulins (overall accuracy 86%). Two or more of the following parameters were associated with a 14-fold increased risk of in-hospital mortality: hemoglobin less than 10 g/dl, albumin less than 3 g/dl, and gamma-globulins less than 1.2 g/dl. This prognostic rule was 80% sensitive and 94% specific with a negative predictive value of 94%, yielding an overall accuracy of 91%. Patients with HIV-associated PCP with a positive prognostic rule have a 14-fold increased risk for in-hospital lethal outcome. This discriminant rule may be helpful in identifying patients at risk.