Predictors of Mortality Poorly Predict Common Measures of Disease Progression in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Prevalence and prognostic value of malnutrition in patients with IPF using three scoring systems

BACKGROUND

To describe the nutritional status of IPF patients, report clinical associations and evaluate the prognostic value of them in IPF.

METHODS

264 IPF patients diagnosed with IPF at the Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University between January 2011 and January 2021 were recruited. Three different scoring systems, including nutritional risk index (NRI), controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score, and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) were used to describe the nutritional status of IPF patients.

RESULT

This study investigated the prevalence of malnutrition in 264 IPF patients, of which the percentage with malnutrition varied from 37.5 % with the NRI, to 47.4 % with the CONUT score, and to 6.4 % with the PNI. The moderate to severe malnutrition ranged from 10.2 % to 31.1 % across these indices, with PNI identifying only 4.9 % in this category. Worsening malnutrition status was associated with significantly higher incidence of all-cause mortality and IPF death regard of the malnutrition index as NRI (p < 0.05). When the normal nutrition of NRI was used as a reference, patients in the moderate to severe risk remained at a higher risk of all-cause death (HR = 2.06(1.25-3.41)) and IPF death(HR = 2.36(1.35-4.15)). The adjusted multivariate analysis, identified age(HR = 1.13(1.08-1.20)), DLCO <60, % predicted (HR = 3.31(1,24-9.42)) and the use of anti-fibrotic drugs (HR = 0.25(0.10-0.60)) as independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Malnutrition is common among patients with IPF and the baseline as diagnosis of IPF is strongly related to increased mortality.

Pilot study of home-based monitoring for early prediction of acute exacerbations in patients with fibrosing interstitial lung diseases

This study aimed to assess the potential of home monitoring using a monitoring application for the early prediction of acute exacerbations (AEs) in patients with fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (F-ILDs) by tracking symptoms, peripheral blood oxygen saturation (SpO2), and heart rate (HR). Data on symptoms, SpO2, and HR before and after a 1-min sit-to-stand test (1STST) were collected using an online home monitoring application. Symptoms were recorded at least 3 times a week, including cough intensity and frequency (Cough Assessment Test scale (COAT) score), breathlessness grade (modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) score), and SpO2 and HR before and after 1STST. Eighty-five patients with stable F-ILDs were enrolled. We observed a significant increase in COAT and mMRC scores, alongside a significant decrease in SpO2 before and after 1STST, 2 weeks before the first recorded AE. Furthermore, a combination of variables-an increase in COAT (≥ 4) and mMRC(≥ 1) scores, a decrease in SpO2 at rest (≥ 5%), and a decrease in SpO2 after 1STST (≥ 4%)- proved the most effective in predicting AE onset in patients with F-ILDs at 2 weeks before the first recorded AE. Home telemonitoring of symptoms, SpO2 holds potential value for early AE detection in patients with F-ILDs.

Genetics and Genomics of Pulmonary Fibrosis: Charting the Molecular Landscape and Shaping Precision Medicine

Recent genetic and genomic advancements have elucidated the complex etiology of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and other progressive fibrotic interstitial lung diseases (ILDs), emphasizing the contribution of heritable factors. This state-of-the-art review synthesizes evidence on significant genetic contributors to pulmonary fibrosis (PF), including rare genetic variants and common SNPs. The MUC5B promoter variant is unusual, a common SNP that markedly elevates the risk of early and established PF. We address the utility of genetic variation in enhancing understanding of disease pathogenesis and clinical phenotypes, improving disease definitions, and informing prognosis and treatment response. Critical research gaps are highlighted, particularly the underrepresentation of non-European ancestries in PF genetic studies and the exploration of PF phenotypes beyond usual interstitial pneumonia/IPF. We discuss the role of telomere length, often critically short in PF, and its link to progression and mortality, underscoring the genetic complexity involving telomere biology genes (TERT, TERC) and others like SFTPC and MUC5B. In addition, we address the potential of gene-by-environment interactions to modulate disease manifestation, advocating for precision medicine in PF. Insights from gene expression profiling studies and multiomic analyses highlight the promise for understanding disease pathogenesis and offer new approaches to clinical care, therapeutic drug development, and biomarker discovery. Finally, we discuss the ethical, legal, and social implications of genomic research and therapies in PF, stressing the need for sound practices and informed clinical genetic discussions. Looking forward, we advocate for comprehensive genetic testing panels and polygenic risk scores to improve the management of PF and related ILDs across diverse populations.

Oxygen saturation recovery after 6-minute walk test in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BACKGROUND

The six-minute walk test (6MWT) is widely used to assess functional capacity and prognosis in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). However, studies on oxygen saturation recovery after the 6MWT in patients with IPF are rare. In our study, we investigated the relationship between oxygen saturation recovery time and dyspnea, fatigue, quality of life, prognostic markers and pulmonary hypertension (PH).

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, IPF patients diagnosed according to current guidelines and followed up in our Interstitial Lung Disease Outpatient Clinic between 2021 and 2022 were included. Demographics, data from spirometry, diffusion capacity measurement, arterial blood gas analysis, transthoracic echocardiography and the 6MWT were recorded. The oxygen saturation recovery time, distance saturation product (DSP), gender-age-physiology (GAP) index and composite physiological index (CPI) scores were calculated. Dyspnea severity was assessed by the modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) and Dyspnoea-12 (D-12) scales, fatigue severity by the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory (MFI-20) and quality of life by the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ).

RESULTS

Fifty IPF patients (34 men, 16 women, age: 66.8 ± 7.3 years) were included in the study. The mean FVC was 77.8 ± 19.3%, the DLCO was 52.9 ± 17.1%, the 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) was 385.7 ± 90.6 m, the GAP index was 3.5 ± 1.5, and the CPI was 43.7 ± 14.1. Oxygen saturation after the 6MWT reached pretest values at an average of 135.6 ± 73.5 s. The oxygen saturation recovery time was longer in patients with higher GAP index scores (Rs = 0.870, p < 0.001), CPI scores (Rs = 0.906, p < 0.001), desaturation (Rs = 0.801, p < 0.001), FVC%/DLCO% (Rs = 0.432, p = 0.002), sPAP (Rs = 0.492, p = 0.001), TRV (Rs = 0.504, p = 0.001), mMRC (Rs = 0.913, p < 0.001), MFI-20 (Rs = 0.944, p < 0.001), D-12 scale (Rs = 0.915, p < 0.001) and SGRQ scores (Rs = 0.927, p < 0.001); lower FVC (%) (Rs=-0.627, p < 0.001), DLCO (%) (Rs=-0.892, p < 0.001), PaO2 (Rs=-0.779, p < 0.001), DSP (Rs=-0.835, p < 0.001), and 6MWD (Rs=-0.763, p < 0.001). A total of twenty patients (40%) exhibited an increased risk of PH. According to our multiple regression analysis, oxygen saturation recovery time was independently associated with the GAP index (p = 0.036), the lowest oxygen saturation occurring during the 6MWT (p = 0.011) and the SGRQ score (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed that oxygen saturation recovery time is associated with dyspnea, fatigue, quality of life, increased risk of PH and prognostic markers in IPF. Therefore, we recommend continuous measurement of oxygen saturation after 6MWT until pretest values are reached.

A multidimensional classifier to support lung transplant referral in patients with pulmonary fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Lung transplantation remains the sole curative option for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but donor organs remain scarce, and many eligible patients die before transplant. Tools to optimize the timing of transplant referrals are urgently needed.

METHODS

Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was applied to clinical and proteomic data generated as part of a prospective cohort study of interstitial lung disease (ILD) to derive clinical, proteomic, and multidimensional logit models of near-term death or lung transplant within 18 months of blood draw. Model-fitted values were dichotomized at the point of maximal sensitivity and specificity, and decision curve analysis was used to select the best-performing classifier. We then applied this classifier to independent IPF and non-IPF ILD cohorts to determine test performance characteristics. Cohorts were restricted to patients aged ≤72 years with body mass index 18 to 32 to increase the likelihood of transplant eligibility.

RESULTS

IPF derivation, IPF validation, and non-IPF ILD validation cohorts consisted of 314, 105, and 295 patients, respectively. A multidimensional model comprising 2 clinical variables and 20 proteins outperformed stand-alone clinical and proteomic models. Following dichotomization, the multidimensional classifier predicted near-term outcome with 70% sensitivity and 92% specificity in the IPF validation cohort and 70% sensitivity and 80% specificity in the non-IPF ILD validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

A multidimensional classifier of near-term outcomes accurately discriminated this end-point with good test performance across independent IPF and non-IPF ILD cohorts. These findings support refinement and prospective validation of this classifier in transplant-eligible individuals.

Predictive factors of mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis treated with antifibrotics: a novel prognostic scoring system

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Any test that provides sufficient prognostic information to guide treatment decisions in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is not available. The aim of our study was to determine the predictive factors of mortality in patients with IPF treated with antifibrotics.

METHODS

Patients with diagnosis of IPF who were treated with antifibrotics between 2016 - 2021 were included in the study. Demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics of the patients was derived from hospital records retrospectively. Kaplan Meier and multivariate cox regression analysis were achieved for detection of mortality predictors.

RESULTS

Study population was composed of 119 IPF patients with a male predominance of 80.7% (n=96). Mean age of the patients was 67.9 ± 7.07 years. On univariate analysis, sex was not a significant predictor of mortality (HR 1.79; 95% CI: 0.87 - 3.69, p =0.11).  BMI ≤ 26,6 m2/kg, DLCO ≤ 3.11 ml/mmHg/min, age over 62 years, 6DWT ≤ 382 meters, NLR ≤ 2.67 and PDW ≤ 16.7% were found to be significant for predicting mortality. On multivariate cox regression analysis four parameters remained significant for prediction of mortality: RDW > 14%, NLR ≤ 2.67, BMI ≤ 26,6 m2/kg and DLCO ≤ 3.11 ml/mmHg/min (respectively, HR: 2.0. 95% CI: 1.02 - 3.91, p=0.44; HR: 2.68. 95% CI: 1.48 - 4.85, p=0.001, HR: 2.07. 95% CI: 1.14 - 3.76, p=0.02, HR: 3.46. 95% CI: 1.85 - 6.47, p<0.001). A scoring system with these parameters discriminated patients with worse prognosis with a sensitivity of 89.1 % and a specificity of 65.8 % when total point was over 2 (AUC0.83, p<0.001). Conclusions In this study, DLCO, BMI, RDW and NLR levels significantly predicted mortality in IPF patients. Along with GAP index, scoring system with these simple parameters may give information about the prognosis of an IPF patient treated with antifibrotics.

Pursuing Clinical Predictors and Biomarkers for Progression in ILD: Analysis of the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation (PFF) Registry

INTRODUCTION

Pulmonary fibrosis is a characteristic of various interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) with differing etiologies. Clinical trials in progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) enroll patients based on previously described clinical criteria for past progression, which include a clinical practice guideline for PPF classification and inclusion criteria from the INBUILD trial. In this study, we compared the ability of past FVC (forced vital capacity) progression and baseline biomarker levels to predict future progression in a cohort of patients from the PFF Patient Registry.

METHODS

Biomarkers previously associated with pathobiology and/or progression in pulmonary fibrosis were selected to reflect cellular senescence (telomere length), pulmonary epithelium (SP-D, RAGE), myeloid activation (CXCL13, YKL40, CCL18, OPN) and fibroblast activation (POSTN, COMP, PROC3).

RESULTS

PFF or INBUILD-like clinical criteria was used to separate patients into past progressor and non-past progressor groups, and neither clinical criterion appeared to enrich for patients with greater future lung function decline. All baseline biomarkers measured were differentially expressed in patient groups compared to healthy controls. Baseline levels of SP-D and POSTN showed the highest correlations with FVC slope over one year, though correlations were low.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide further evidence that prior decline in lung function may not predict future disease progression for ILD patients, and elevate the need for molecular definitions of a progressive phenotype. Across ILD subtypes, certain shared pathobiologies may be present based on the molecular profile of certain biomarker groups observed. In particular, SP-D may be a common marker of pulmonary injury and future lung function decline across ILDs.

Use of 6-minute walk distance to predict lung transplant-free survival in fibrosing non-IPF interstitial lung diseases

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The identification of progression in patients with fibrosing non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) represents an ongoing clinical challenge. Lung function decline alone may have significant limitations in the detection of clinically significant progression. We hypothesized that longitudinal changes of 6-min walk distance (6MWD) from baseline, simultaneously considered with measures of lung function, may independently predict survival and identifying clinically significant progression of disease.

METHODS

Forced vital capacity (FVC), diffusing lung capacity (DLCO) and 6MWD were considered both at baseline and at 1 year in a discovery cohort (n = 105) and in a validation cohort (n = 138) from different centres. The primary endpoint was lung transplant (LTx)-free survival.

RESULTS

Average follow-up was 3 years in both cohorts. Combined incidence of deaths and LTx was 29% and 21%, respectively. No collinearity and no strong correlations were observed among FVC, DLCO and 6MWD longitudinal changes. While age, gender and BMI were not significant, 6MWD decline ≥24 m predicted LTx-free-survival significantly and independently from FVC and DLCO declines, with high sensitivity and specificity, in both the discovery and the validation cohorts. Although FVC and DLCO declines remained significant predictors of LTx-free survival, 6MWD decline was more accurate than the proposed ATS/ERS/JRS/ALAT functional criteria. Results were confirmed after stratifying patients by baseline FVC.

CONCLUSION

Longitudinal declines of 6MWD are associated with poor survival in fibrosing ILDs across a wide range of baseline severity, with high accuracy. 6MWD longitudinal decline is largely independent from lung function decline and may be integrated into the routine assessment of progression.

Interstitial lung disease: a review of classification, etiology, epidemiology, clinical diagnosis, pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment

Interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) refer to a heterogeneous and complex group of conditions characterized by inflammation, fibrosis, or both, in the interstitium of the lungs. This results in impaired gas exchange, leading to a worsening of respiratory symptoms and a decline in lung function. While the etiology of some ILDs is unclear, most cases can be traced back to factors such as genetic predispositions, environmental exposures (including allergens, toxins, and air pollution), underlying autoimmune diseases, or the use of certain medications. There has been an increase in research and evidence aimed at identifying etiology, understanding epidemiology, improving clinical diagnosis, and developing both pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of knowledge in the field of interstitial lung diseases.

Identification of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis and Prediction of Disease Severity via Machine Learning Analysis of Comprehensive Metabolic Panel and Complete Blood Count Data

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) typically relies on high-resolution computed tomography imaging (HRCT) or histopathology, while monitoring disease severity is done via frequent pulmonary function testing (PFT). More reliable and convenient methods of diagnosing fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) type and monitoring severity would allow for early identification and enhance current therapeutic interventions. This study tested the hypothesis that a machine learning (ML) ensemble analysis of comprehensive metabolic panel (CMP) and complete blood count (CBC) data can accurately distinguish IPF from connective tissue disease ILD (CTD-ILD) and predict disease severity as seen with PFT.

METHODS

Outpatient data with diagnosis of IPF or CTD-ILD (n = 103 visits by 53 patients) were analyzed via ML methodology to evaluate (1) IPF vs CTD-ILD diagnosis; (2) %predicted Diffusing Capacity of Lung for Carbon Monoxide (DLCO) moderate or mild vs severe; (3) %predicted Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) moderate or mild vs severe; and (4) %predicted FVC mild vs moderate or severe.

RESULTS

ML methodology identified IPF from CTD-ILD with AUCTEST = 0.893, while PFT was classified as DLCO moderate or mild vs severe with AUCTEST = 0.749, FVC moderate or mild vs severe with AUCTEST = 0.741, and FVC mild vs moderate or severe with AUCTEST = 0.739. Key features included albumin, alanine transaminase, %lymphocytes, hemoglobin, %eosinophils, white blood cell count, %monocytes, and %neutrophils.

CONCLUSION

Analysis of CMP and CBC data via proposed ML methodology offers the potential to distinguish IPF from CTD-ILD and predict severity on associated PFT with accuracy that meets or exceeds current clinical practice.

Clinical course of mild-to-moderate idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis during therapy with pirfenidone: Results of the non-interventional study AERplus

INTRODUCTION

Pirfenidone was the first anti-fibrotic drug approved in Europe in 2011 for the treatment of mild-to-moderate idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the clinical course of mild-to-moderate idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in pirfenidone-treated patients in a real-world setting.

METHODS

The non-interventional study was conducted at 18 sites in Germany from 6/2014-12/2016. Adult patients with mild-to-moderate idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis were treated with pirfenidone (escalated from 3×1 to 3×3 capsules of 267 mg/day within 3 weeks) for 12 months. The observation period comprised 4 follow-up visits at months 3, 6, 9 and 12. Disease progression was defined as decrease of ≥10% in vital capacity or ≥15% in diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and/or ≥50m in 6-minute walking distance vs. baseline, or "lack of response/progression" as reason for therapy discontinuation.

RESULTS

A total of 51 patients (80.4% male, mean age 70.6 years) were included in the full analysis set. Disease progression at any visit was reported for 23 (67.6%) of 34 patients with available data. Over the course of the study, lung function parameters, physical resilience, impact of cough severity on quality of life, and the mean Gender, Age and Physiology Index (stage II) remained stable. In total, 29 patients (56.9%) experienced at least one adverse drug reaction (11 patients discontinued due to adverse drug reactions); serious adverse reactions were reported in 12 patients (23.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study are in line with the established benefit-risk profile of pirfenidone. Therefore, pirfenidone can be considered a valuable treatment option to slow disease progression in mild-to-moderate idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. NCT02622477.

Compare three diagnostic criteria of progressive pulmonary fibrosis

Background

In patients with fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD), a progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) typically demonstrates worsening respiratory symptoms, lung function decline and continuing fibrosis. The goal of this study was to compare the three different diagnostic criteria of PPF.

Methods

Except for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), all consecutive adult patients with fibrotic ILD were retrospectively examined for the three predefined diagnostic criteria of PPF. The three criteria assessed the disease progression in preceding 6 (0.5-year), 12 (1-year) and 24 (2-year) months respectively. The clinical characteristics, decline in predicted percent of forced vital capacity (FVC%) and survival of three groups were compared, followed by determination of risk factors for mortality.

Results

We identified 246 patients by 0.5-year standard, 154 patients by 1-year standard and 281 patients by 2-year standard. Among them, 95% of patients in 1-year group were also included in 2-year group. The average 1-year decline in FVC% was -1.0%, -2.7%, and -4.1% for 0.5-, 1-, and 2-year group respectively. The 4-year survival rate was 74% in 0.5-year group, 66% in 1-year group, and 62% in 2-year group. In multivariate Cox model, only baseline predicted percent diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO%) <50% was correlated with mortality, with a hazard ratio of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.1-10.6, P=0.03).

Conclusions

In the current situations, both the 1- and 2-year criterion are the reasonable choice to define PPF both in researches and clinical practice, and DLCO% is an independent predictor for mortality of PPF.

Pulmonary Fibrosis Stakeholder Summit: A Joint NHLBI, Three Lakes Foundation, and Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Workshop Report

Despite progress in elucidation of disease mechanisms, identification of risk factors, biomarker discovery, and the approval of two medications to slow lung function decline in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and one medication to slow lung function decline in progressive pulmonary fibrosis, pulmonary fibrosis remains a disease with a high morbidity and mortality. In recognition of the need to catalyze ongoing advances and collaboration in the field of pulmonary fibrosis, the NHLBI, the Three Lakes Foundation, and the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation hosted the Pulmonary Fibrosis Stakeholder Summit on November 8-9, 2022. This workshop was held virtually and was organized into three topic areas: 1) novel models and research tools to better study pulmonary fibrosis and uncover new therapies, 2) early disease risk factors and methods to improve diagnosis, and 3) innovative approaches toward clinical trial design for pulmonary fibrosis. In this workshop report, we summarize the content of the presentations and discussions, enumerating research opportunities for advancing our understanding of the pathogenesis, treatment, and outcomes of pulmonary fibrosis.

Towards the adoption of quantitative computed tomography in the management of interstitial lung disease

The shortcomings of qualitative visual assessment have led to the development of computer-based tools to characterise and quantify disease on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) in patients with interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). Quantitative CT (QCT) software enables quantification of patterns on HRCT with results that are objective, reproducible, sensitive to change and predictive of disease progression. Applications developed to provide a diagnosis or pattern classification are mainly based on artificial intelligence. Deep learning, which identifies patterns in high-dimensional data and maps them to segmentations or outcomes, can be used to identify the imaging patterns that most accurately predict disease progression. Optimisation of QCT software will require the implementation of protocol standards to generate data of sufficient quality for use in computerised applications and the identification of diagnostic, imaging and physiological features that are robustly associated with mortality for use as anchors in the development of algorithms. Consortia such as the Open Source Imaging Consortium have a key role to play in the collation of imaging and clinical data that can be used to identify digital imaging biomarkers that inform diagnosis, prognosis and response to therapy.

A prospective cohort study of periostin as a serum biomarker in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis treated with nintedanib

This study investigated the utility of periostin, a matricellular protein, as a prognostic biomarker in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) who received nintedanib. Monomeric and total periostin levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 87 eligible patients who participated in a multicenter prospective study. Forty-three antifibrotic drug-naive patients with IPF described in previous studies were set as historical controls. Monomeric and total periostin levels were not significantly associated with the change in forced vital capacity (FVC) or diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO) during any follow-up period. Higher monomeric and total periostin levels were independent risk factors for overall survival in the Cox proportional hazard model. In the analysis of nintedanib effectiveness, higher binarized monomeric periostin levels were associated with more favorable suppressive effects on decreased vital capacity (VC) and DLCO in the treatment group compared with historical controls. Higher binarized levels of total periostin were associated with more favorable suppressive effects on decreased DLCO but not VC. In conclusion, higher periostin levels were independently associated with survival and better therapeutic effectiveness in patients with IPF treated with nintedanib. Periostin assessments may contribute to determining therapeutic strategies for patients with IPF.

Association of the 6-minute walking test ratio and difference with pulmonary function in patients with interstitial lung disease

OBJECTIVES

To examine the associations between 6-minute walk test (6MWT) and lung functions, blood gas analysis findings, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), and hospital stay in interstitial lung disease (ILD).

METHODS

The present retrospective study included patients hospitalized in Beijing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Capital Medical University between September 2018 and December 2019. The outcomes included the difference between the actual and predicted 6MWT values (6MWT difference) and the ratio of the actual to predicted 6MWT value (6MWT ratio).

RESULTS

This study included 137 patients. The predicted 6MWT value was 519±61 m and the actual 6MWT value was 449 (196.5,694)m. The 6MWT ratio was 84.7±177.6 and 6MWT difference was 73.9±95.1 m. Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) (β= -2.157, standard error [SE]=0.836, p=0.014) and diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO) (β= -22.528, SE=7.48, p=0.004) had independent associations with 6MWT difference. The FeNO (β=0.403, SE=0.163, p=0.018) and DLCO (β=4.355, SE=1.458, p=0.005) had independent associations with 6MWT ratio.

CONCLUSION

In ILD, 6MWT difference and 6MWT ratio were associated with FeNO and DLCO. The 6MWT value was not associated with hospital stay. Therefore, the 6MWT might be a surrogate marker of pulmonary function in clinical ILD.

Lung function trajectories in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease characterised by decline in lung function. We evaluated trajectories of forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusing capacity (DLco) in a cohort of patients with IPF.

METHODS

Patients with IPF that was diagnosed or confirmed at the enrolling centre in the previous 6 months were enrolled into the IPF-PRO Registry between June 2014 and October 2018. Patients were followed prospectively, with lung function data collected as part of routine clinical care. Mean trajectories of FVC and DLco % predicted in all patients and in subgroups by characteristics assessed at enrolment were estimated using a joint model that accounted for factors such as disease severity and visit patterns.

RESULTS

Of 1002 patients in the registry, 941 had ≥ 1 FVC and/or DLco measurement after enrolment. The median (Q1, Q3) follow-up period was 35.1 (18.9, 47.2) months. Overall, mean estimated declines in FVC and DLco % predicted were 2.8% and 2.9% per year, respectively. There was no evidence that the mean trajectories of FVC or DLco had a non-linear relationship with time at the population level. Patients who were male, white, had a family history of ILD, were using oxygen, or had prior/current use of antifibrotic therapy at enrolment had greater rates of decline in FVC % predicted. Patients who were male or white had greater rates of decline in DLco % predicted.

CONCLUSIONS

Data from the IPF-PRO Registry suggest a constant rate of decline in lung function over a prolonged period, supporting the inexorably progressive nature of IPF. A graphical abstract summarising the data in this manuscript is available at: https://www.usscicomms.com/respiratory/IPF-PRORegistry_LungFunctionTrajectories .

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01915511.

Historical eye on IPF: a cohort study redefining the mortality scenario

Rationale

Therapies that slow idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) progression are now available and recent studies suggest that the use of antifibrotic therapy may reduce IPF mortality.

Objectives

The aim of the study was to evaluate whether, to what extent, and for which factors the survival of IPF in a real-life setting has changed in the last 15 years.

Methods

Historical eye is an observational study of a large cohort of consecutive IPF patients diagnosed and treated in a referral center for ILDs with prospective intention. We recruited all consecutive IPF patients seen at GB Morgagni Hospital, Forlì, Italy between January 2002 and December 2016 (15 years). We used survival analysis methods to describe and model the time to death or lung transplant and Cox regression to model prevalent and incident patient characteristics (time-dependent Cox models were fitted).

Measurements and main results

The study comprised 634 patients. The year 2012 identifies the time point of mortality shift (HR 0.58, CI 0.46-0.63, p < 0.001). In the more recent cohort, more patients had better preserved lung function, underwent cryobiopsy instead of surgery, and were treated with antifibrotics. Highly significant negative prognostic factors were lung cancer (HR 4.46, 95% CI 3.3-6, p < 0.001), hospitalizations (HR 8.37, 95% CI 6.5-10.7, p < 0.001), and acute exacerbations (HR 8.37, 95% CI 6.52-10.7, p < 0.001). The average antifibrotic treatment effect estimated using propensity score matching showed a significant effect in the reduction of all-cause mortality (ATE coeff -0.23, SE 0.04, p < 0.001), acute exacerbations (ATE coeff -0.15, SE 0.04, p < 0.001), and hospitalizations (ATE coeff -0.15, SE 0.04, p < 0.001) but no effect on lung cancer risk (ATE coeff -0.03, SE 0.03, p = 0.4).

Conclusion

Antifibrotic drugs significantly impact hospitalizations, acute exacerbations, and IPF survival. After the introduction of cryobiopsy and antifibrotic drugs, the prognosis of IPF patients has significantly improved together with our ability to detect IPF at an earlier stage.

Guidelines of the Polish Respiratory Society on the Diagnosis and Treatment of Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Diseases Other than Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

The recommendations were developed as answers to previously formulated questions concerning everyday diagnostic and therapeutic challenges. They were developed based on a review of the current literature using the GRADE methodology. The experts suggest that PF-ILD be diagnosed based on a combination of different criteria, such as the aggravation of symptoms, progression of radiological lesions, and worsening of lung function test parameters. The experts recommend a precise diagnosis of an underlying disease, with serological testing for an autoimmune disease always being included. The final diagnosis should be worked out by a multidisciplinary team (MDT). Patients with an interstitial lung disease other than IPF who do not meet the criteria for the progressive fibrosis phenotype should be monitored for progression, and those with systemic autoimmune diseases should be regularly monitored for signs of interstitial lung disease. In managing patients with interstitial lung disease associated with autoimmune diseases, an opinion of an MDT should be considered. Nintedanib rather than pirfenidon should be introduced in the event of the ineffectiveness of the therapy recommended for the treatment of the underlying disease, but in some instances, it is possible to start antifibrotic treatment without earlier immunomodulatory therapy. It is also admissible to use immunomodulatory and antifibrotic drugs simultaneously. No recommendations were made for or against termination of anti-fibrotic therapy in the case of noted progression during treatment of a PF-ILD other than IPF. The experts recommend that the same principles of non-pharmacological and palliative treatment and eligibility for lung transplantation should be applied to patients with an interstitial lung disease other than IPF with progressive fibrosis as in patients with IPF.

Three-Month FVC Change: A Trial Endpoint for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Based on Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis

Rationale: Novel therapies for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are in development, but there remains uncertainty about the optimal trial endpoint. An earlier endpoint would enable assessment of a greater number of therapies in adaptive trial designs. Objectives: To determine whether short-term changes in FVC, DlCO, and six-minute-walk distance could act as surrogate endpoints to accelerate early-phase trials in IPF. Methods: Individual participant data (IPD) from IPF clinical trials were included in a two-step random-effects meta-analysis to determine whether baseline or 3-month changes in FVC, DlCO, and 6-minute-walk distance were associated with mortality or disease progression in placebo arms. Three-month and 12-month FVC decline endpoints were compared with treatment arm data from antifibrotic studies by meta-regression. Measurements and Main Results: IPD were available from 12 placebo cohorts totaling 1,819 participants, with baseline and 3-month changes in all physiological variables independently associated with poorer outcomes. Treatment data were available from six cohorts with 1,684 participants. For each 2.5% relative decline in FVC over 3 months, there was an associated 15% (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.24; I2 = 59.4%) and 20% (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12-1.28; I2 = 18.0%) increased risk for mortality in untreated and treated individuals, respectively. An FVC change treatment effect was observed between treatment and placebo arms at 3 months (difference in FVC change of 42.9 ml; 95% CI, 24.0-61.8 ml; P < 0.001). Conclusions: IPD meta-analysis demonstrated that 3-month changes in physiological variables, particularly FVC, were associated with mortality among individuals with IPF. FVC change over 3 months may hold potential as a surrogate endpoint in IPF adaptive trials.

Validation of the Brazilian Portuguese version of the University of California San Diego Shortness of Breath Questionnaire in patients with interstitial lung disease

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the reliability, internal consistency and validity of the Brazilian Portuguese version of the University of California San Diego Shortness of Breath Questionnaire (UCSD SOBQ) in patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD).

METHODS

Patients with ILD completed the questionnaire at three different time points, one week apart, with the assistance of two independent assessors. Intra- and inter-rater reliability were analysed via the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Internal consistency was assessed with the Cronbach's alpha coefficient. For the validity analysis, associations between variables were assessed with Spearman's or Pearson's correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

Thirty patients with ILD (idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, connective tissue disease-associated pulmonary fibrosis, sarcoidosis, asbestosis or non-specific interstitial pneumonia) were included (15 men; mean age, 59 ± 10 years; DLCO: 46 [33-64] % predicted). UCSD SOBQ scores showed excellent agreement and internal consistency in the intra-rater analysis (ICC: 0.93 [0.85-0.97]; Cronbach alpha: 0.95) and in the inter-rater analysis (ICC: 0.95 [0.89-0.97]; Cronbach alpha: 0.95), as well as correlating significantly with dyspnoea (as assessed by the Medical Research Council scale; r = 0.56); Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form Health Survey domains bodily pain, general health, vitality and physical functioning (-0.40 ≤ r ≤ -0.74); six-minute walk distance (r = -0.38); and quadriceps muscle strength (r = -0.41).

CONCLUSIONS

The Brazilian Portuguese version of the UCSD SOBQ is valid, is reliable and has internal consistency in patients with ILD in Brazil.

Longitudinal serological assessment of type VI collagen turnover is related to progression in a real-world cohort of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Background

Remodeling of the extracellular matrix (ECM) is a central mechanism in the progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), and remodeling of type VI collagen has been suggested to be associated with disease progression. Biomarkers that reflect and predict the progression of IPF would provide valuable information for clinicians when treating IPF patients.

Methods

Two serological biomarkers reflecting formation (PRO-C6) and degradation (C6M) of type VI collagen were evaluated in a real-world cohort of 178 newly diagnoses IPF patients. All patients were treatment naïve at the baseline visit. Blood samples and clinical data were collected from baseline, six months, and 12 months visit. The biomarkers were measured by competitive ELISA using monoclonal antibodies.

Results

Patients with progressive disease had higher (P = 0.0099) serum levels of PRO-C6 compared to those with stable disease over 12 months with an average difference across all timepoints of 12% (95% CI 3–22), whereas C6M levels tended (P = 0.061) to be higher in patients with progressive disease compared with stable patients over 12 months with an average difference across all timepoints of 12% (95% CI − 0.005–27). Patients who did not receive antifibrotic medicine had a greater increase of C6M (P = 0.043) compared to treated patients from baseline over 12 months with an average difference across all timepoints of 12% (95% CI − 0.07–47). There were no differences in biomarker levels between patients receiving pirfenidone or nintedanib.

Conclusions

Type VI collagen formation was related to progressive disease in patients with IPF in a real-world cohort and antifibrotic therapy seemed to affect the degradation of type VI collagen. Type VI collagen formation and degradation products might be potential biomarkers for disease progression in IPF.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-021-01684-3.

The natural history of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in a large European population: the role of age, sex and comorbidities

Placebo arms of clinical trials provide an opportunity to investigate the natural history of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) but these patients are not representative of the real life IPF population. Objective of this article is to evaluate patients' characteristics of incident IPF cases and their impact on mortality and hospitalizations risk. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from administrative databases from 2000 to 2010. Based on different algorithms reported in literature, incident IPF cases were identified. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to assess relationship between patients' characteristics, mortality and hospitalization. According to three case definitions, we identified 2338, 460 and 1704 incident IPF cases. Mean age at diagnosis was about 72 years, the proportion of male varied between 59 and 62% and patients with at least one chronic disease were between 70 and 74%. Age, male sex and comorbidities were associated to worse outcomes. Congestive heart failure (CHF), diabetes and cancer were conditions associated to mortality, while those associated to hospitalization were CHF and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Our data source provided one of the largest samples of unselected patients with a long follow-up period. Using different algorithms proposed and validated in literature, we observed that mortality and hospitalization rate are high in patients with IPF and age, sex and comorbidities significantly affect clinical outcomes. Females show a significant survival advantage over males, even after adjusting for age and comorbidities. Patients with pre-existing diseases, especially those with pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases are at higher risk.

An IPF-like disease course in disorders other than IPF: how can this be anticipated, recognized, and managed?

INTRODUCTION

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF)-like chronic disease progression despite treatment cannot be predicted with confidence in interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) other than IPF at the time of diagnosis.

AREAS COVERED

We review key determinants of a progressive fibrotic phenotype, at initial diagnosis of an ILD other than IPF. Medline literature searches (2000 to 2020) were undertaken with regard to the issues discussed in this review.

EXPERT OPINION

The definition of the progressive fibrotic phenotype in non-IPF patients should remain real world, with a conclusion reached by an experienced clinician that progression has occurred despite the use of appropriate historical therapies, on a case by case basis. There is an urgent need for pathogenetic studies to identify pathways and genetic predilections that are common to chronic progressive fibrosis across different diseases. Efforts should also be focused on the identification of the progressive fibrotic phenotype at first presentation, potentially through a combination of CT and biopsy evaluation and the definition of a biomarker profile associated with subsequent disease progression. Recent anti-fibrotic trials of non-IPF disorders should lead to trials of combination regimens of anti-fibrotic agents and immunomodulatory or other therapies specific to individual diseases.

Novel Artificial Intelligence-based Technology for Chest Computed Tomography Analysis of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

RATIONALE

There is a growing need to accurately estimate the prognosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in clinical practice, given the development of effective drugs for treating IPF.

OBJECTIVE

To develop artificial intelligence-based image analysis software to detect parenchymal and airway abnormalities on chest computed tomography (CT) and to explore their prognostic importance in patients with IPF.

METHODS

A novel artificial intelligence-based quantitative CT image analysis software (AIQCT) was developed by applying 304 HRCT scans from patients with diffuse lung diseases as the training set. AIQCT automatically categorized and quantified ten types of parenchymal patterns as well as airways, expressing the volumes as percentages of the total lung volume. To validate the software, the area percentages of each lesion quantified by AIQCT were compared with those of the visual scores using 30 plain HRCT images with lung diseases. In addition, three-dimensional analysis for similarity with ground truth was performed using HRCT images from 10　patients with IPF. AIQCT was then applied to 120 patients with IPF who underwent chest HRCT scanning at our institute. Associations between the measured volumes and survival were analyzed.

RESULTS

The correlations between AIQCT and the visual scores were moderate to strong (correlation coefficient 0.44 to 0.95) depending on the parenchymal pattern. The Dice indexes for similarity between AIQCT data and ground truth were 0.67, 0.76, and 0.64 for reticulation, honeycomb, and bronchi, respectively. During a median follow-up period of 2,184 days, 66 patients died, and 1 underwent lung transplantation. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, bronchial volumes [adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.16 to 1.53] and normal lung volumes (adjusted HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.94 to 0.99) were independently associated with survival after adjusting for the GAP stage of IPF.

CONCLUSIONS

Our newly developed artificial intelligence-based image analysis software successfully quantified parenchymal lesions and airway volumes. Bronchial and normal lung volumes on chest HRCT may provide additional prognostic information on the GAP stage of IPF.

Blood Transcriptomics Predicts Progression of Pulmonary Fibrosis and Associated Natural Killer Cells

Rationale: Disease activity in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) remains highly variable, poorly understood, and difficult to predict. Objectives: To identify a predictor using short-term longitudinal changes in gene expression that forecasts future FVC decline and to characterize involved pathways and cell types. Methods: Seventy-four patients from COMET (Correlating Outcomes with Biochemical Markers to Estimate Time-Progression in IPF) cohort were dichotomized as progressors (≥10% FVC decline) or stable. Blood gene-expression changes within individuals were calculated between baseline and 4 months and regressed with future FVC status, allowing determination of expression variations, sample size, and statistical power. Pathway analyses were conducted to predict downstream effects and identify new targets. An FVC predictor for progression was constructed in COMET and validated using independent cohorts. Peripheral blood mononuclear single-cell RNA-sequencing data from healthy control subjects were used as references to characterize cell type compositions from bulk peripheral blood mononuclear RNA-sequencing data that were associated with FVC decline. Measurements and Main Results: The longitudinal model reduced gene-expression variations within stable and progressor groups, resulting in increased statistical power when compared with a cross-sectional model. The FVC predictor for progression anticipated patients with future FVC decline with 78% sensitivity and 86% specificity across independent IPF cohorts. Pattern recognition receptor pathways and mTOR pathways were downregulated and upregulated, respectively. Cellular deconvolution using single-cell RNA-sequencing data identified natural killer cells as significantly correlated with progression. Conclusions: Serial transcriptomic change predicts future FVC decline. An analysis of cell types involved in the progressor signature supports the novel involvement of natural killer cells in IPF progression.

Turnover of type I and III collagen predicts progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterized by the accumulation of fibrillar collagens in the alveolar space resulting in reduced pulmonary function and a high mortality rate. Biomarkers measuring the turnover of type I and III collagen could provide valuable information for prognosis and treatment decisions in IPF.

METHODS

Serological biomarkers reflecting the formation of type III collagen (PRO-C3) and degradation of type I (C1M) and III collagen (C3M) were evaluated in a real-world cohort of 178 newly diagnosed IPF patients. Blood samples and clinical data were collected at baseline, six, and 12 months. Baseline and longitudinal biomarker levels were related to disease progression of IPF (defined as ≥ 5% decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) and/or ≥ 10% decline in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco) and/or all-cause mortality at 12 months). Furthermore, we analysed differences in percentage change of biomarker levels from baseline between patients receiving antifibrotic treatment or not.

RESULTS

Increased baseline levels of type I and III collagen turnover biomarkers were associated with a greater risk of disease progression within 12 months compared to patients with a low baseline type I and III collagen turnover. Patients with progressive disease had higher serum levels of C1M (P = 0.038) and PRO-C3 (P = 0.0022) compared to those with stable disease over one year. There were no differences in biomarker levels between patients receiving pirfenidone, nintedanib, or no antifibrotics.

CONCLUSION

Baseline levels of type I and III collagen turnover were associated with disease progression within 12 months in a real-world cohort of IPF patients. Longitudinal biomarker levels of type I and III collagen turnover were related to progressive disease. Moreover, antifibrotic therapy did not affect type I and III collagen turnover biomarkers in these patients. PRO-C3 and C1M may be potential biomarkers for a progressive disease behavior in IPF.

Effects of nintedanib by inclusion criteria for progression of interstitial lung disease

Background

The INBUILD trial investigated nintedanib versus placebo in patients with progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). We investigated the decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) in subgroups based on the inclusion criteria for ILD progression.

Methods

Subjects had a fibrosing ILD other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and met the following criteria for ILD progression within the 24 months before screening despite management deemed appropriate in clinical practice: Group A, relative decline in FVC ≥10% predicted; Group B, relative decline in FVC ≥5–<10% predicted with worsened respiratory symptoms and/or increased extent of fibrosis on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT); Group C, worsened respiratory symptoms and increased extent of fibrosis on HRCT only.

Results

In the placebo group, the rates of FVC decline over 52 weeks in Groups A, B and C, respectively, were −241.9, −133.1 and −115.3 mL per year in the overall population (p=0.0002 for subgroup-by-time interaction) and −288.9, −156.2 and −100.1 mL per year among subjects with a usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP)-like fibrotic pattern on HRCT (p=0.0005 for subgroup-by-time interaction). Nintedanib had a greater absolute effect on reducing the rate of FVC decline in Group A than in Group B or C. However, the relative effect of nintedanib versus placebo was consistent across the subgroups (p>0.05 for heterogeneity).

Conclusions

The inclusion criteria used in the INBUILD trial, based on FVC decline or worsening of symptoms and extent of fibrosis on HRCT, were effective at identifying patients with progressive fibrosing ILDs. Nintedanib reduced the rate of decline in FVC across the subgroups based on the inclusion criteria related to ILD progression.

In the INBUILD trial in patients with fibrosing ILDs, the relative effect of nintedanib versus placebo on reducing the rate of FVC decline was consistent across subgroups based on the criteria regarding ILD progression that patients fulfilled on trial entryhttps://bit.ly/35jpOiE

Cutaneous T-cell-attracting chemokine as a novel biomarker for predicting prognosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a prospective observational study

Background

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic, progressive fibrotic lung disease that leads to respiratory failure and death. Although there is a greater understanding of the etiology of this disease, accurately predicting the disease course in individual patients is still not possible. This study aimed to evaluate serum cytokines/chemokines as potential biomarkers that can predict outcomes in IPF patients.

Methods

A multi-institutional prospective two-stage discovery and validation design using two independent cohorts was adopted. For the discovery analysis, serum samples from 100 IPF patients and 32 healthy controls were examined using an unbiased, multiplex immunoassay of 48 cytokines/chemokines. The serum cytokine/chemokine values were compared between IPF patients and controls; the association between multiplex measurements and survival time was evaluated in IPF patients. In the validation analysis, the cytokines/chemokines identified in the discovery analysis were examined in serum samples from another 81 IPF patients to verify the ability of these cytokines/chemokines to predict survival. Immunohistochemical assessment of IPF-derived lung samples was also performed to determine where this novel biomarker is expressed.

Results

In the discovery cohort, 18 cytokines/chemokines were significantly elevated in sera from IPF patients compared with those from controls. Interleukin-1 receptor alpha (IL-1Rα), interleukin-8 (IL-8), macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha (MIP-1α), and cutaneous T-cell-attracting chemokine (CTACK) were associated with survival: IL-1Rα, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.04 per 10 units, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.01–1.07; IL-8, HR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.01–1.08; MIP-1α, HR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.00–1.36; and CTACK, HR = 1.12 per 100 units, 95% CI 1.02–1.21. A replication analysis was performed only for CTACK because others were previously reported to be potential biomarkers of interstitial lung diseases. In the validation cohort, CTACK was associated with survival: HR = 1.14 per 100 units, 95% CI 1.01–1.28. Immunohistochemistry revealed the expression of CTACK and CC chemokine receptor 10 (a ligand of CTACK) in airway and type II alveolar epithelial cells of IPF patients but not in those of controls.

Conclusions

CTACK is a novel prognostic biomarker of IPF.

Trial registration None (because of no healthcare intervention)

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-021-01779-9.

Circulating Plasma Biomarkers of Survival in Antifibrotic-Treated Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

BACKGROUND

A number of circulating plasma biomarkers have been shown to predict survival in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but most were identified before the use of antifibrotic (AF) therapy in this population. Because pirfenidone and nintedanib have been shown to slow IPF progression and may prolong survival, the role of such biomarkers in AF-treated patients is unclear.

RESEARCH QUESTION

To determine whether plasma concentration of cancer antigen 125 (CA-125), C-X-C motif chemokine 13 (CXCL13), matrix metalloproteinase 7 (MMP7), surfactant protein D (SP-D), chitinase-3-like protein-1 (YKL-40), vascular cell adhesion protein-1 (VCAM-1), and osteopontin (OPN) is associated with differential transplant-free survival (TFS) in AF-exposed and nonexposed patients with IPF.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

A pooled, multicenter, propensity-matched analysis of IPF patients with and without AF exposure was performed. Optimal thresholds for biomarker dichotomization were identified in each group using iterative Cox regression. Longitudinal biomarker change was assessed in a subset of patients using linear mixed regression modeling. A clinical-molecular signature of IPF TFS was then derived and validated in an independent IPF cohort.

RESULTS

Three hundred twenty-five patients were assessed, of which 68 AF-exposed and 172 nonexposed patients were included after propensity matching. CA-125, CXCL13, MMP7, YKL-40, and OPN predicted differential TFS in AF-exposed patients but at higher thresholds than in AF-nonexposed individuals. Plasma biomarker level generally increased over time in nonexposed patients but remained unchanged in AF-exposed patients. A clinical-molecular signature predicted decreased TFS in AF-exposed patients (hazard ratio [HR], 5.91; 95% CI, 2.25-15.5; P < .001) and maintained this association in an independent AF-exposed cohort (HR, 3.97; 95% CI, 1.62-9.72; P = .003).

INTERPRETATION

Most plasma biomarkers assessed predicted differential TFS in AF-exposed patients with IPF, but at higher thresholds than in nonexposed patients. A clinical-molecular signature of IPF TFS may provide a reliable predictor of outcome risk in AF-treated patients but requires additional research for optimization and validation.

The extended utility of antifibrotic therapy in progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease

INTRODUCTION

The approval of two antifibrotic treatment agents for delaying disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), has prompted researchers to look at expanding the role of antifibrotic therapy to other fibrosing interstitial lung disease (ILD). Similarities in the pathological mechanisms that lead to the development of IPF have been implicated in other progressive fibrosing ILD (PF-ILD) such as chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis, connective tissues disease associated ILD, sarcoidosis, occupational ILD and idiopathic non-specific interstitial pneumonia (iNSIP). This has prompted the rationale to use antifibrotic therapy to target similar molecular pathways in these diseases.

AREAS COVERED

This review will summarise the available evidence from randomised controlled trials that have evaluated the use of antifibrotic therapy in PF-ILD outside the realm of IPF.

EXPERT OPINION

There is promising data for antifibrotic therapy as a therapeutic option for non IPF PF-ILD. The new therapy option does provide some challenges that need to be addressed such as timing of initiation of therapy, clarifying the strategy for overlap or combination with existing immunosuppressive therapies and potential drug interactions. There is an unmet need to determine accurate predictors of disease progression to allow early intervention for the preservation of lung function and mortality reduction.

Comparison of disease progression subgroups in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Background

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive interstitial pneumonia with an unpredictable course. The aims of this study were to retrospectively re-evaluate a cohort of patients with IPF according to the 2011 international IPF guidelines and 1) to characterize the subgroups of patients when classified according to their observed survival times and 2) to evaluate whether Composite Physiologic Index (CPI), Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index or clinical variables could predict mortality.

Methods

Retrospective data was collected and patients were classified into subgroups according to their observed lifespans. Differences in clinical variables, CPI and GAP stages as well as in comorbidities were investigated between the subgroups. Predictors of mortality were identified by COX proportional hazard analyses.

Results

A total of 132 patients were included in this study. The disease course was rapid (≤ 2 years) in 30.0%, moderate (2–5 years) in 28.0% and slow (≥ 5 years) in 29.0% of the patients. Pulmonary function tests (PFT) and CPI at baseline differentiated significantly between the rapid disease course group and those patients with longer survival times. However, the predictive accuracy of the investigated clinical variables was mainly less than 0.80. The proportions of patients with comorbidities did not differ between the subgroups, but more patients with a rapid disease course were diagnosed with heart failure after the diagnosis of IPF. Most patients with a rapid disease course were categorized in GAP stages I and II, but all patients in GAP stage III had a rapid disease course. The best predictive multivariable model included age, gender and CPI. GAP staging had slightly better accuracy (0.67) than CPI (0.64) in predicting 2-year mortality.

Conclusions

Although the patients with a rapid disease course could be differentiated at baseline in terms of PFT and CPI, the predictive accuracy of any single clinical variable as well as CPI and GAP remained low. GAP staging was unable to identify the majority of patients with a rapid disease progression. It is challenging to predict disease progression and mortality in IPF even with risk prediction models.

Modelling Forced Vital Capacity in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Optimising Trial Design

Introduction

Forced vital capacity is the only registrational endpoint in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis clinical trials. As most new treatments will be administered on top of standard of care, estimating treatment response will become more challenging. We developed a simulation model to quantify variability associated with forced vital capacity decline.

Methods

The model is based on publicly available clinical trial summary and home spirometry data. A single, illustrative trial setting is reported. Model assumptions are 400 subjects randomised 1:1 to investigational drug or placebo over 52 weeks, 50% of each group receiving standard of care (all-comer population), and a 90-mL treatment difference in annual forced vital capacity decline. Longitudinal profiles were simulated and the impact of varying clinical scenarios evaluated.

Results

Power to detect a significant treatment difference was 87–97%, depending on the analysis method. Repeated measures analysis generally outperformed analysis of covariance and mixed linear models, particularly with missing data (as simulated data were non-linear). A 15% yearly random dropout rate led to 0.6–5% power loss. Forced vital capacity decline-related dropout introduced greater power loss (up to 12%), as did subjects starting/stopping standard of care or investigational drug. Power was substantially lower for a 26-week trial due to the smaller assumed treatment effect at week 26 (sample size would need doubling to reach a power similar to that of a 52-week trial).

Conclusions

Our model quantifies forced vital capacity decline and associated variability, with all the caveats of background therapy, permitting robust power calculations to inform future idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis clinical trial design.

Funding

Galapagos NV (Mechelen, Belgium).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12325-019-01093-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Signals and signposts: Biomarkers in IPF and PAH at the crossroads of clinical relevance

See related Article and Article

Risk factors for disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

In this retrospective study of a randomised trial of simtuzumab in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), prodromal decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) was significantly associated with increased risk of mortality, respiratory and all-cause hospitalisations, and categorical disease progression. Predictive modelling of progression-free survival event risk was used to assess the effect of population enrichment for patients at risk of rapid progression of IPF; C-index values were 0.64 (death), 0.69 (disease progression), and 0.72 (adjudicated respiratory hospitalisation) and 0.76 (all-cause hospitalisation). Predictive modelling may be a useful tool for improving efficiency of clinical trials with categorical end points.

Indications for lung transplant referral and listing

Lung transplantation is a valuable therapeutic option for many patients with severe lung disease who have exhausted other medical or surgical therapies. However, since lungs are not a manufacturable organ like artificial heart valves or left ventricular assist devices, and since they are a limited resource compared to number of patients requiring the organs, the Department of Health and Human Services set the Final Rule of organ allocation in 1998. This led to development and implementation of Lung Allocation Score (LAS) in 2005. The score broadly divides lung diseases into 4 diagnostic criteria with a coefficient factor given to each category. The score is based on the prognostic factors of each patient to determine the risk of mortality without a transplant combined with the probability of patient survival post-transplant. Most of the guidelines for "Indications for referral and listing in lung transplant" is based on consensus opinion as there is limited amount of robust data and trials about this topic. The International Society for Heart and Lung Transplant (ISHLT) has published three editions for candidate selection and listing. In this article, we have attempted to highlight the guidelines and incorporated other disease specific prognostic factors that are not captured in the LAS. Ultimately, there are other factors like geographic location, height, blood group, preformed antibodies, transplant center experience, past wait times and transplant rate, availability of organs, etc., which also play a role especially when considering listing a patient for lung transplant. We also highlighted a representative disease in each category and most criteria for that disease will apply to other diseases in that category. Finally, this article does not delve into the history and reasoning behind each guideline but is meant to provide a general overview of indications and contraindications applicable in the field of adult lung transplantation.

The use of validated and nonvalidated surrogate endpoints in two European Medicines Agency expedited approval pathways: A cross-sectional study of products authorised 2011-2018

BACKGROUND

In situations of unmet medical need or in the interests of public health, expedited approval pathways, including conditional marketing authorisation (CMA) and accelerated assessment (AA), speed up European Medicines Agency (EMA) marketing authorisation recommendations for medicinal products. CMAs are based on incomplete benefit-risk assessment data and authorisation remains conditional until regulator-imposed confirmatory postmarketing measures are fulfilled. For products undergoing AA, complete safety and efficacy data should be available, and postauthorisation measures may include only standard requirements of risk management and pharmacovigilance plans. In the pivotal trials supporting products assessed by expedited pathways, surrogate endpoints reduce drug development time compared with waiting for the intended clinical outcomes. Whether surrogate endpoints supporting products authorised through CMA and AA pathways reliably predict clinical benefits of therapy has not been studied systematically. Our objectives were to determine the extent to which surrogate endpoints are used and to assess whether their validity had been confirmed according to published hierarchies.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used European Public Assessment Reports (EPARs) to identify the primary endpoints in the pivotal trials supporting products authorised through CMA or AA pathways during January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2018. We excluded products that were vaccines, topical, reversal, or bleeding prophylactic agents or withdrawn within the study time frame. Where pivotal trials reported surrogate endpoints, we conducted PubMed searches for evidence of validity for predicting clinical outcomes. We used 2 published hierarchies to assess validity level. Surrogates with randomised controlled trials supporting the surrogate-clinical outcome relationship were rated as 'validated'. Fifty-one products met the inclusion criteria; 26 underwent CMAs, and 25 underwent AAs. Overall, 26 products were for oncology indications, 10 for infections, 8 for genetic disorders, and 7 for other systems disorders. Five products (10%), all AAs, were authorised based on pivotal trials reporting clinical outcomes, and 46 (90%) were authorised based on surrogate endpoints. No studies were identified that validated the surrogate endpoints. Among a total of 49 products with surrogate endpoints reported, most were rated according to the published hierarchies as being 'reasonably likely' (n = 30; 61%) or of having 'biological plausibility' (n = 46; 94%) to predict clinical outcomes. EPARs did not consistently explain the nature of the pivotal trial endpoints supporting authorisations, whether surrogate endpoints were validated or not, or describe the endpoints to be reported in the confirmatory postmarketing studies. Our study has limitations: we may have overlooked relevant validation studies; the findings apply to 2 expedited pathways and may not be generalisable to products authorised through the standard assessment pathway.

CONCLUSIONS

The pivotal trial evidence supporting marketing authorisations for products granted CMA or AA was based dominantly on nonvalidated surrogate endpoints. EPARs and summary product characteristic documents, including patient information leaflets, need to state consistently the nature and limitations of endpoints in pivotal trials supporting expedited authorisations so that prescribers and patients appreciate shortcomings in the evidence about actual clinical benefit. For products supported by nonvalidated surrogate endpoints, postauthorisation measures to confirm clinical benefit need to be imposed by the regulator on the marketing authorisation holders.

Biomarkers of extracellular matrix turnover in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis given nintedanib (INMARK study): a randomised, placebo-controlled study

BACKGROUND

A hallmark of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is the excess accumulation of extracellular matrix in the lungs. Degradation of extracellular matrix generates free-circulating protein fragments called neoepitopes. The aim of the INMARK trial was to investigate changes in neoepitopes as predictors of disease progression in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and the effect of nintedanib on these biomarkers.

METHODS

In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, patients with a diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis within the past 3 years and forced vital capacity (FVC) of 80% predicted or higher were eligible to participate. Patients were recruited from hospitals, private practices, clinical research units, and academic medical centres. Patients were randomly assigned (1:2) with the use of a pseudo-random number generator to receive oral nintedanib 150 mg twice a day or placebo for 12 weeks in a double-blind fashion, followed by open-label nintedanib for 40 weeks. The primary endpoint was the rate of change in C-reactive protein (CRP) degraded by matrix metalloproteinases 1 and 8 (CRPM) from baseline to week 12 in the intention-to-treat population. The trial has been completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02788474, and with the European Clinical Trials Database, number 2015-003148-38.

FINDINGS

Between June 27, 2016, and May 15, 2017, 347 patients were randomly assigned to the nintedanib group (n=116) or to the placebo group (n=231). One patient from the placebo group was not treated owing to a randomisation error. At baseline, mean FVC was 97·5% (SD 13·5) predicted. In the double-blind period, 116 patients received nintedanib and 230 patients received placebo. The rate of change in CRPM from baseline to week 12 was -2·57 × 10^-3 ng/mL/month in the nintedanib group and -1·90 × 10^-3 ng/mL/month in the placebo group (between-group difference -0·66 × 10^-3 ng/mL/month [95% CI -6·21 × 10^-3 to 4·88 × 10^-3]; p=0·8146). The adjusted rate of change in FVC over 12 weeks was 5·9 mL in the nintedanib group and -70·2 mL in the placebo group (difference 76·1 mL/12 weeks [31·7 to 120·4]). In patients who received placebo for 12 weeks followed by open-label nintedanib, rising concentrations of CRPM over 12 weeks were associated with disease progression (absolute decline in FVC ≥10% predicted or death) over 52 weeks. In the double-blind period, serious adverse events were reported in eight (7%) patients given nintedanib and 18 (8%) patients given placebo. Grade 3 diarrhoea was reported in two (2%) patients in the nintedanib group and two (1%) patients in the placebo group. No patients had grade 4 diarrhoea.

INTERPRETATION

In patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and preserved lung function, treatment with nintedanib versus placebo for 12 weeks did not affect the rate of change in CRPM but was associated with a reduced rate of decline in FVC. These results suggest that change in CRPM is not a marker of response to nintedanib in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim.

Effects of nintedanib in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis by GAP stage

We conducted a post hoc analysis to assess the potential impact of GAP (gender, age, physiology) stage on the treatment effect of nintedanib in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Outcomes were compared in patients at GAP stage I versus II/III at baseline in the INPULSIS® trials.

At baseline, 500 patients were at GAP stage I (nintedanib 304, placebo 196), 489 were at GAP stage II (nintedanib 296, placebo 193) and 71 were at GAP stage III (nintedanib 38, placebo 33). In nintedanib-treated patients, the annual rate of decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) was similar in patients at GAP stage I and GAP stage II/III at baseline (−110.1 and −116.6 mL·year⁻¹, respectively), and in both subgroups was lower than in placebo-treated patients (−218.5 and −227.6 mL·year⁻¹, respectively) (treatment-by-time-by-subgroup interaction p=0.92). In the nintedanib group, the number of deaths was 43.8% of those predicted based on GAP stage (35 versus 79.9). In the placebo group, the number of deaths was 59.8% of those predicted based on GAP stage (33 versus 55.2).

In conclusion, data from the INPULSIS® trials suggest that nintedanib has a similar beneficial effect on the rate of FVC decline in patients at GAP stage I versus II/III at baseline.

Nintedanib provides a similar benefit versus placebo on the rate of decline in forced vital capacity in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis irrespective of GAP stage at baselinehttp://ow.ly/HfJ730nNkRT

High-Resolution Computed Tomography (HRCT) Reflects Disease Progression in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF): Relationship with Lung Pathology

High-Resolution Computed Tomography (HRCT) plays a central role in diagnosing Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) while its role in monitoring disease progression is not clearly defined. Given the variable clinical course of the disease, we evaluated whether HRCT abnormalities predict disease behavior and correlate with functional decline in untreated IPF patients. Forty-nine patients (with HRCT₁) were functionally categorized as rapid or slow progressors. Twenty-one had a second HRCT₂. Thirteen patients underwent lung transplantation and pathology was quantified. HRCT Alveolar (AS) and Interstitial Scores (IS) were assessed and correlated with Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) decline between HRCT₁ and HRCT₂. At baseline, AS was greater in rapids than in slows, while IS was similar in the two groups. In the 21 subjects with HRCT₂, IS increased over time in both slows and rapids, while AS increased only in rapids. The IS change from HRCT₁ to HRCT₂ normalized per month correlated with FVC decline/month in the whole population, but the change in AS did not. In the 13 patients with pathology, the number of total lymphocytes was higher in rapids than in slows and correlated with AS. Quantitative estimation of HRCTs AS and IS reflects the distinct clinical and pathological behavior of slow and rapid decliners. Furthermore, AS, which reflects the immune/inflammatory infiltrate in lung tissue, could be a useful tool to differentiate rapid from slow progressors at presentation.