The influence of disease risk on the optimal time interval between screens for the early detection of cancer: a mathematical approach

The risk-based breast screening (RIBBS) study protocol: a personalized screening model for young women

The optimal mammography screening strategy for women aged 45-49 years is a matter of debate. We present the RIBBS study protocol, a quasi-experimental, prospective, population-based study comparing a risk- and breast density-stratified screening model (interventional cohort) with annual digital mammography (DM) screening (observational control cohort) in a real-world setting. The interventional cohort consists of 10,269 women aged 45 years enrolled between 2020 and 2021 from two provinces of the Veneto Region (northen Italy). At baseline, participants underwent two-view digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) and completed the Tyrer-Cuzick risk prediction model. Volumetric breast density (VBD) was calculated from DBT and the lifetime risk (LTR) was estimated by including VBD among the risk factors. Based on VBD and LTR, women were classified into five subgroups with specific screening protocols for subsequent screening rounds: (1) LTR ≤ 17% and nondense breast: biennial DBT; (2) LTR ≤ 17% and dense breast: biennial DBT and ultrasound; (3) LTR 17-30% or LTR > 30% without family history of BC, and nondense breast: annual DBT; (4) LTR 17-30% or > 30% without family history of BC, and dense breast: annual DBT and ultrasound; and (5) LTR > 30% and family history of BC: annual DBT and breast MRI. The interventional cohort is still ongoing. An observational, nonequivalent control cohort of 43,000 women aged 45 years participating in an annual DM screening programme was recruited in three provinces of the neighbouring Emilia-Romagna Region. Cumulative incidence rates of advanced BC at three, five, and ten years between the two cohorts will be compared, adjusting for the incidence difference at baseline.Trial registration This study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05675085).

Perspective on Management of Low-Dose Computed Tomography Findings on Low-Dose Computed Tomography Examinations for Lung Cancer Screening. From the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer Early Detection and Screening Committee

Lung cancer screening using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) carefully implemented has been found to reduce deaths from lung cancer. Optimal management starts with selection of eligibility criteria, counseling of screenees, smoking cessation, selection of the regimen of screening which specifies the imaging protocol, and workup of LDCT findings. Coordination of clinical, radiologic, and interventional teams and ultimately treatment of diagnosed lung cancers under screening determine the benefit of LDCT screening. Ethical considerations of who should be eligible for LDCT screening programs are important to provide the benefit to as many people at risk of lung cancer as possible. Unanticipated diseases identified on LDCT may offer important benefits through early detection of leading global causes of death, such as cardiovascular diseases and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, as the latter may result from conditions such as emphysema and bronchiectasis, which can be identified early on LDCT. This report identifies the key components of the regimen of LDCT screening for lung cancer which include the need for a management system to provide data for continuous updating of the regimen and provides quality assurance assessment of actual screenings. Multidisciplinary clinical management is needed to maximize the benefit of early detection, diagnosis, and treatment of lung cancer. Different regimens have been evolving throughout the world as the resources and needs may be different, for countries with limited resources. Sharing of results, further knowledge, and incorporation of technologic advances will continue to accelerate worldwide improvements in the diagnostic and treatment approaches.

Global burden of female breast cancer and its association with socioeconomic development status, 1990-2044

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is a widespread disease in women worldwide.

AIM

We aimed to explore the global epidemiological trends of female breast cancer (FBC) between 1990 and 2044.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Disease burden, population, and socio-demographic index (SDI) data were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) database. We analyzed temporal trends, age differences, risk factors, and geographic patterns of FBC disease burden globally and explored the association between age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of FBC and SDI. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was also performed to predict the changes in FBC incidence worldwide from 2020 to 2044. First, the global ASIR of FBC increased by 14.31% from 1990 to 2019 (95% Uncertainty Interval 4.75% to 23.98%). The death rate presented a falling trend. Second, alcohol use is the most-highlighted risk factor for FBC in some high-income regions such as Europe. A high fasting plasma glucose levels is the most prominent risk factor for FBC in Latin America and Africa. Third, the ASIR of the FBC increases with the SDI. Fourth, the incidence is expected to increase faster among women aged 35-60 years and fastest for those aged 50-54 years from 2020 to 2044. Countries with a high incidence of FBC that is expected to increase significantly include Barbados, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Monaco, Lebanon, Togo, and Uganda.

CONCLUSION

The disease burden of FBC varies worldwide; the findings suggest attaching importance to the control of middle and low-middle SDI regions. Public health as well as cancer prevention experts should pay more attention to regions and populations at an increased risk of developing FBC, focusing on their prevention and rehabilitation while conducting further epidemiological studies to investigate the risk factors of their increase.

Cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening and prevention: a systematic review with a focus on risk-adapted strategies

OBJECTIVES

Benefit and cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening are still matters of controversy. Risk-adapted strategies are proposed to improve its benefit-harm and cost-benefit relations. Our objective was to perform a systematic review on economic breast cancer models evaluating primary and secondary prevention strategies in the European health care setting, with specific focus on model results, model characteristics, and risk-adapted strategies.

METHODS

Literature databases were systematically searched for economic breast cancer models evaluating the cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening and prevention strategies in the European health care context. Characteristics, methodological details and results of the identified studies are reported in evidence tables. Economic model outputs are standardized to achieve comparable cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS

Thirty-two economic evaluations of breast cancer screening and seven evaluations of primary breast cancer prevention were included. Five screening studies and none of the prevention studies considered risk-adapted strategies. Studies differed in methodologic features. Only about half of the screening studies modeled overdiagnosis-related harms, most often indirectly and without reporting their magnitude. All models predict gains in life expectancy and/or quality-adjusted life expectancy at acceptable costs. However, risk-adapted screening was shown to be more effective and efficient than conventional screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Economic models suggest that breast cancer screening and prevention are cost effective in the European setting. All screening models predict gains in life expectancy, which has not yet been confirmed by trials. European models evaluating risk-adapted screening strategies are rare, but suggest that risk-adapted screening is more effective and efficient than conventional screening.

Personalising lung cancer screening: An overview of risk-stratification opportunities and challenges

Randomised clinical trials have shown the efficacy of computed tomography lung cancer screening, initiating discussions on whether and how to implement population‐based screening programs. Due to smoking behaviour being the primary risk‐factor for lung cancer and part of the criteria for determining screening eligibility, lung cancer screening is inherently risk‐based. In fact, the selection of high‐risk individuals has been shown to be essential in implementing lung cancer screening in a cost‐effective manner. Furthermore, studies have shown that further risk‐stratification may improve screening efficiency, allow personalisation of the screening interval and reduce health disparities. However, implementing risk‐based lung cancer screening programs also requires overcoming a number of challenges. There are indications that risk‐based approaches can negatively influence the trade‐off between individual benefits and harms if not applied thoughtfully. Large‐scale implementation of targeted, risk‐based screening programs has been limited thus far. Consequently, questions remain on how to efficiently identify and invite high‐risk individuals from the general population. Finally, while risk‐based approaches may increase screening program efficiency, efficiency should be balanced with the overall impact of the screening program. In this review, we will address the opportunities and challenges in applying risk‐stratification in different aspects of lung cancer screening programs, as well as the balance between screening program efficiency and impact.

Personalized breast cancer screening strategies: A systematic review and quality assessment

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of breast cancer screening is still under debate. Our objective was to systematically review studies assessing personalized breast cancer screening strategies based on women's individual risk and to conduct a risk of bias assessment.

METHODS

We followed the standard methods of The Cochrane Collaboration and PRISMA declaration and searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE and Clinical Trials databases for studies published in English. The quality of the studies was assessed using the ISPOR-AMCP-NPC Questionnaire and The Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Two independent reviewers screened full texts and evaluated the risk of bias.

RESULTS

Out of the 1533 initially retrieved citations, we included 13 studies. Three studies were randomized controlled trials, while nine were mathematical modeling studies, and one was an observational pilot study. The trials are in the recruitment phase and have not yet reported their results. All three trials used breast density and age to define risk groups, and two of them included family history, previous biopsies, and genetic information. Among the mathematical modeling studies, the main risk factors used to define risk groups were breast density, age, family history, and previous biopsies. Six studies used genetic information to define risk groups. The most common outcome measures were the gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALY), absolute costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), while the main outcome in the observational study was the detection rate. In all models, personalized screening strategies were shown to be effective. The randomized trials were of good quality. The modeling studies showed moderate risk of bias but there was wide variability across studies. The observational study showed a low risk of bias but its utility was moderate due to its pilot design and its relatively small scale.

CONCLUSIONS

There is some evidence of the effectiveness of screening personalization in terms of QUALYs and ICER from the modeling studies and the observational study. However, evidence is lacking on feasibility and acceptance by the target population.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO: CRD42018110483.

Operational research techniques applied throughout cancer care services: a review

Cancer is a disease affecting increasing numbers of people. In the UK, the proportion of people affected by cancer is projected to increase from 1 in 3 in 1992, to nearly 1 in 2 by 2020. Health services to tackle cancer can be grouped broadly into prevention, diagnosis, staging, and treatment. We review examples of Operational Research (OR) papers addressing decisions encountered in each of these areas. In conclusion, we find many examples of OR research on screening strategies, as well as on treatment planning and scheduling. On the other hand, our search strategy uncovered comparatively few examples of OR models applied to reducing cancer risks, optimising diagnostic procedures, and staging. Improvements to cancer care services have been made as a result of successful OR modelling. There is potential for closer working with clinicians to enable the impact of other OR studies to be of greater benefit to cancer sufferers.

Cost Effectiveness of Age-Specific Screening Intervals for People With Family Histories of Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Relative risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) decreases with age among individuals with a family history of CRC. However, no screening recommendations specify less frequent screening with increasing age. We aimed to determine whether such a refinement would be cost effective.

METHODS

We determined the relative risk for CRC for individuals based on age and number of affected first-degree relatives (FDRs) using data from publications. For each number of affected FDRs, we used the Microsimulation Screening Analysis model to estimate costs and effects of colonoscopy screening strategies with different age ranges and intervals. Screening was then optimized sequentially, starting with the youngest age group, and allowing the interval of screening to change at certain ages. Strategies with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio below $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year were considered cost effective.

RESULTS

For people with 1 affected FDR (92% of those with a family history), screening every 3 years beginning at an age of 40 years is most cost effective. If no adenomas are found, the screening interval can gradually be extended to 5 and 7 years, at ages 45 and 55 years, respectively. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, individuals with more affected FDRs should start screening earlier and at shorter intervals. However, frequency can be reduced if no abnormalities are found.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a microsimulation model, we found that for individuals with a family history of CRC, it is cost effective to gradually increase the screening interval if several subsequent screening colonoscopies have negative results and no new cases of CRC are found in family members.