All-cause, cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality in the population of a large Italian area contaminated by perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (1980-2018)

BACKGROUND

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are associated with many adverse health conditions. Among the main effects is carcinogenicity in humans, which deserves to be further clarified. An evident association has been reported for kidney cancer and testicular cancer. In 2013, a large episode of surface, ground and drinking water contamination with PFAS was uncovered in three provinces of the Veneto Region (northern Italy) involving 30 municipalities and a population of about 150,000. We report on the temporal evolution of all-cause mortality and selected cause-specific mortality by calendar period and birth cohort in the local population between 1980 and 2018.

METHODS

The Italian National Institute of Health pre-processed and made available anonymous data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics death certificate archives for residents of the provinces of Vicenza, Padua and Verona (males, n = 29,629; females, n = 29,518) who died between 1980 and 2018. Calendar period analysis was done by calculating standardised mortality ratios using the total population of the three provinces in the same calendar period as reference. The birth cohort analysis was performed using 20-84 years cumulative standardised mortality ratios. Exposure was defined as being resident in one of the 30 municipalities of the Red area, where the aqueduct supplying drinking water was fed by the contaminated groundwater.

RESULTS

During the 34 years between 1985 (assumed as beginning date of water contamination) and 2018 (last year of availability of cause-specific mortality data), in the resident population of the Red area we observed 51,621 deaths vs. 47,731 expected (age- and sex-SMR: 108; 90% CI: 107-109). We found evidence of raised mortality from cardiovascular disease (in particular, heart diseases and ischemic heart disease) and malignant neoplastic diseases, including kidney cancer and testicular cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time, an association of PFAS exposure with mortality from cardiovascular disease was formally demonstrated. The evidence regarding kidney cancer and testicular cancer is consistent with previously reported data.

How many Italian cancer patients are eligible for, and may respond to, Italian Medicines Agency-approved immune checkpoint inhibitors?

INTRODUCTION

This cross-sectional study was aimed at estimating the number of Italian incident cancer patients in 2020 eligible for, and respondent to, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI).

METHODS

The study is based on publicly available data: the ICI approved until August 2022 by the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) with their specific indications and overall observed responses, rther details can be found in the Online Supplementary Materi cancer incidence estimates at 2020 and observed cancer deaths, and published papers with estimates on the frequency of different cancer stage/histology/markers etc. corresponding to AIFA authorizations.

RESULTS

In the analyzed period, a total of seven ICI were authorized in Italy for 20 cancer types. The estimated number of ICI-eligible patients in 2020 was 48,400, 14.3% of those tumors (including skin epitheliomas) that may fit AIFA-indications, and 10.5% of all the incident malignant tumors, including skin epitheliomas. The number of patients who may benefit from ICI therapy was 24,052, 49.7% of the ICI-eligible ones, or 5.2% of the overall estimated incident cancers in 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, although the number of ICI-eligible patients is a relatively small proportion of the yearly burden of cancers, about half of them may respond to ICI-treatment.

Cure indicators and prevalence by stage at diagnosis for breast and colorectal cancer patients: A population-based study in Italy

People alive many years after breast (BC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnoses are increasing. This paper aimed to estimate the indicators of cancer cure and complete prevalence for Italian patients with BC and CRC by stage and age. A total of 31 Italian Cancer Registries (47% of the population) data until 2017 were included. Mixture cure models allowed estimation of net survival (NS); cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC, 5-year conditional NS >95%); cure prevalence (who will not die of cancer); and already cured (prevalent patients living longer than TTC). 2.6% of all Italian women (806,410) were alive in 2018 after BC and 88% will not die of BC. For those diagnosed in 2010, CF was 73%, 99% when diagnosed at stage I, 81% at stage II, and 36% at stages III-IV. For all stages combined, TTC was >10 years under 45 and over 65 years and for women with advanced stages, but ≤1 year for all BC patients at stage I. The proportion of already cured prevalent BC women was 75% (94% at stage I). Prevalent CRC cases were 422,407 (0.7% of the Italian population), 90% will not die of CRC. For CRC patients, CF was 56%, 92% at stage I, 71% at stage II, and 35% at stages III-IV. TTC was ≤10 years for all age groups and stages. Already cured were 59% of all prevalent CRC patients (93% at stage I). Cancer cure indicators by stage may contribute to appropriate follow-up in the years after diagnosis, thus avoiding patients' discrimination.

The risk-based breast screening (RIBBS) study protocol: a personalized screening model for young women

The optimal mammography screening strategy for women aged 45-49 years is a matter of debate. We present the RIBBS study protocol, a quasi-experimental, prospective, population-based study comparing a risk- and breast density-stratified screening model (interventional cohort) with annual digital mammography (DM) screening (observational control cohort) in a real-world setting. The interventional cohort consists of 10,269 women aged 45 years enrolled between 2020 and 2021 from two provinces of the Veneto Region (northen Italy). At baseline, participants underwent two-view digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) and completed the Tyrer-Cuzick risk prediction model. Volumetric breast density (VBD) was calculated from DBT and the lifetime risk (LTR) was estimated by including VBD among the risk factors. Based on VBD and LTR, women were classified into five subgroups with specific screening protocols for subsequent screening rounds: (1) LTR ≤ 17% and nondense breast: biennial DBT; (2) LTR ≤ 17% and dense breast: biennial DBT and ultrasound; (3) LTR 17-30% or LTR > 30% without family history of BC, and nondense breast: annual DBT; (4) LTR 17-30% or > 30% without family history of BC, and dense breast: annual DBT and ultrasound; and (5) LTR > 30% and family history of BC: annual DBT and breast MRI. The interventional cohort is still ongoing. An observational, nonequivalent control cohort of 43,000 women aged 45 years participating in an annual DM screening programme was recruited in three provinces of the neighbouring Emilia-Romagna Region. Cumulative incidence rates of advanced BC at three, five, and ten years between the two cohorts will be compared, adjusting for the incidence difference at baseline.Trial registration This study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05675085).

The descriptive epidemiology of melanoma in Italy has changed - for the better

A recent research project using data from a total of 40 cancer registries has provided new epidemiologic insights into the results of efforts for melanoma control in Italy between the 1990s and the last decade. In this article, the authors present a summary and a commentary of their findings. Incidence increased significantly throughout the study period in both sexes. However, the rates showed a stabilization or a decrease in men and women aged below 35 years. The risk of disease increased for successive cohorts born until 1973 (women) and 1975 (men) while subsequently tending to decline. The trend towards decreasing tumor thickness and increasing survival has continued, but a novel favorable prognostic factor has emerged since 2013 for patients - particularly for males - with thick melanoma, most likely represented by molecular targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Due to this, the survival gap between males and females has been filled out. In the meanwhile, and despite the incidence increase, dermatologists have not lowered their threshold to perform skin biopsy. Skin biopsy rate has increased because of the increasingly greater volume of dermatologic office visits, but the proportion of skin biopsies out of dermatologic office visits has remained constant. In summary, an important breakthrough in melanoma control in Italy has taken place. Effective interventions have been implemented across the full scope of care, which involve many large local populations - virtually the whole national population. The strategies adopted during the last three decades represent a valuable basis for further steps ahead in melanoma control in Italy.

Epidemiologic transition of lung cancer mortality in Italy by sex, province of residence and birth cohort (1920-1929 to 1960-1969)

Space-time analysis of mortality risk is useful to evaluate the epidemiologic transitions at the subnational level. In our study, we analysed the death certificate records for lung cancer in Italy in 1995-2016, obtained from the Italian National Institute of Statistics. Our objective was to investigate the spatial-temporal evolution of lung cancer mortality by sex and province of residence (n = 107) using the birth cohort as relevant time axis. We built Bayesian space-time models with space-time interactions. Among males (n = 554 829), mortality peaked in the 1920-1929 cohort, followed by a generalised decline. Among females (n = 158 619), we found novel original evidence for a peak in the 1955-1964 cohort, equivalent to a 35-year delay, with a downward trend being observed thereafter. Over time, the documented north-south decreasing mortality gradient has been replaced by a west-east decreasing gradient. Naples has become the province at highest risk in Italy, both among males and females. This pattern is consistent with an epidemiologic transition of risk factors for lung cancer to the south-west of the country and raises concern, because 5-year age-standardised net survival from the disease in this geographic area is lower than in northern and central Italy. The variability of mortality rates among provinces has changed over time, with an increasing homogeneity for males and an opposite trend for females in the more recent birth cohorts. These unprecedented observations provide evidence for a profound spatio-temporal transition of lung cancer mortality in Italy.

Applying competing risks analysis to recurrences of primary breast cancer

INTRODUCTION

in time-to-event analysis, competing risks are observed when a subject is at risk of multiple types of events. A competing risk is an event that prevents the event of interest from happening or modifies its chance to occur.

OBJECTIVES

the purposes of this article are to provide an overview of competing risks analysis and to illustrate its application to the follow-up of breast cancer patients in order to estimate the risk of disease recurrence.

DESIGN

cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

population-based random sample of patients with stage I-III primary female breast cancer diagnosed in 2000-2013, aged 15 years or older, resident in the Forlì health care district (northern Italy), treated surgically and with available information regarding disease laterality.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

subhazard ratio, hazard ratio and cumulative incidence function for loco-regional recurrences and distant metastasis during 10 years of follow-up.

METHODS

breast cancer recurrences were evaluated taking into account death from any cause and occurrence of a second primary breast cancer as competing risks. Recent developments in competing risks methodology were used. The results obtained were compared with those from the Cox regression model, in which the competing risks were not accounted for.

CONCLUSIONS

estimating the risk of recurrence without accounting for the competing risks resulted in a divergence of the hazard/subhazard functions. Competing risks analysis is preferable when the statistical assumption of independence of end-points may be violated.

Presence and Role of Associations of Cancer Patients and Volunteers in Specialist Breast Centres: An Italian National Survey of Breast Centres Associated with Senonetwork

This article aims to present the results of a national, cross-sectional, voluntary, online survey on the presence and roles of associations of breast cancer patients and volunteers in Italian specialist breast centres. The survey was developed according to standard methods. The questionnaire was pre-tested by a random sample of three breast centres, loaded onto the SurveyMonkey platform, and piloted by one volunteer breast centre. The breast centre clinical leads were invited to participate via email. A link to the online instrument was provided. No financial incentives were offered. The results were reported using standard descriptive statistics. The response rate was 82/128 (65%). Members of associations were routinely present in 70% Italian breast centres. Breast centres most often reporting their presence were those certified by the European Society of Breast Cancer Specialists. Patient support (reception and information, listening, identification of needs, and psychological support) was the primary area where associations were reported to offer services. The magnitude of this phenomenon warrants a study to investigate the impact of the activities of associations on the quality of life of patients and on the cost-benefit ratio of the service, and the modes of their interactions with the nursing staff and the medical staff.

Female breast cancer subtypes in the Romagna Unit of the Emilia-Romagna cancer registry, and estimated incident cases by subtypes and age in Italy in 2020

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to estimate the Italian burden of incident breast cancer (BC) by subtypes, according to the distribution of hormonal receptor (HR) status and expression of human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2).

METHODS

Female breast cancers incidence in the Romagna Unit of the Emilia-Romagna registry (n. 10,711) were grouped into: HR+ /HER2-, HR+ /HER2+ , HR-/HER2+ , HR-/HER2- and missing, and by age: < 50, 50-69 and 70+ years. Data were compared with other published Italian population-bases series before using them for national estimates. We used national and regional numbers of expected breast cancers published by the Italian network of cancer registries considering the age- and geographic-specific variation of the Italian population.

RESULTS

Overall, 70.7% of incident BC cases are expected to be HR+ /HER2-, 8.5% HR+ /HER2+ , 7.5% HR-/HER2-, 4.1% HR-/HER2+ and 9.3% missing. The global ranking is similar across age-groups but with age-specific differences. The proportion of missing was around 3-times lower than in the other Italian published population-based series and similar to the SEER one. In Italy, are estimated 38,841 HR+ /HER2- breast cancer cases, 4665 HR+ /HER2+ , 4098 HR-/HER2-, 2281 HR-/HER2+ , and 5092 not specified. Numbers by age-group were provided.

CONCLUSIONS

The present estimates relied on high-quality population-based data and provide a clinically relevant information on the burden of breast cancer subtypes. These data will support the planning of therapy needs for oncologists, decision-makers, and all other stakeholders.

[Extending the target age of mammography screening or the scope of senology?]

In Italy, the extension of the age range eligible for mammography screening to 45-74 years was accepted by national guidelines in 2006, much earlier than elsewhere in Europe. The ultimate rationale was to increase the modest proportion of screen-detected cancers out of total incident breast cancers in the general female population. This comment aims to emphasize that extending the reach of the mammography age boundaries to include younger and older women is not the only way to enlarge the protection of screening upon the female population. Another, and complementary, option is to extend to specialist breast centres some of the main cornerstones of the theory of mammography screening, that is, the adherence to evidence-based guidelines, the monitoring and publication of results of breast cancer control at the population level, the taking of responsibility for the observed failures, and the adoption of proper actions.

De-Implementation of Axillary Staging and Radiotherapy in Low-Risk Breast Cancer Patients Aged 70-79 Years from Six Italian Cancer Institutes

In women aged ≥70 with low-risk breast cancer (BrC), some major international guidelines recommend against sentinel lymph node biopsy (for example, those from the Society of Surgical Oncology, U.S.) and post-lumpectomy radiotherapy (for example, those from the National Comprehensive Cancer Network, U.S.). We assessed the frequency of both procedures in six National Cancer Institutes (IRCCSs) in the North, the Centre, and the South of Italy. Data on tumour characteristics and treatment were obtained from each centre. Patients aged 70-79 years diagnosed with a pT1-pT2, clinically axillary lymph node-negative, oestrogen and/or progesterone receptor-positive, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative BrC between 2015 and 2020 were eligible for the study. Factors associated with the omission of the two procedures were evaluated using binary penalised logistic regression models. Axillary staging was omitted in 33/1000 (3.3%) women. After simultaneous adjustment for the centre of treatment and all other key variables, axillary staging was omitted more often in 2015-2016 vs. 2017-2020 (odds ratio (OR): 2.7; 95% CI: 1.0-7.5), in women aged 75-79 vs. 70-74 years (OR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.1-4.9), and in those who had mastectomy vs. breast-conserving surgery (OR: 3.3; 95% CI: 1.2-9.0). The higher the histological grade was, the less frequent were the omissions (OR for grade 3 vs. grade 1: 0.2; 95% CI: 0.0-0.7). Post-lumpectomy radiotherapy was omitted in 56/651 (8.6%) women with no significant association with age, period, tumour stage, and tumour grade. In conclusion, the omission of axillary staging and post-lumpectomy radiotherapy in low-risk older BrC patients was rare in the Italian IRCCSs. Although women included in the study cannot be considered a nationally representative sample of BrC patients in Italy, our findings can serve as a baseline to monitor the impact of future guidelines. To do that, the recording and storage of hospital-based information should be improved.

Trends in Net Survival from Vulvar Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Italy (1990–2015)

(1) Objective: In many Western countries, survival from vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) has been stagnating for decades or has increased insufficiently from a clinical perspective. In Italy, previous studies on cancer survival have not taken vulvar cancer into consideration or have pooled patients with vulvar and vaginal cancer. To bridge this knowledge gap, we report the trend in survival from vulvar cancer between 1990 and 2015. (2) Methods: Thirty-eight local cancer registries covering 49% of the national female population contributed the records of 6274 patients. Study endpoints included 1- and 2-year net survival (NS) calculated using the Pohar-Perme estimator and 5-year NS conditional on having survived two years (5|2-year CNS). The significance of survival trends was assessed with the Wald test on the coefficient of the period of diagnosis, entered as a continuous regressor in a Poisson regression model. (3) Results: The median patient age was stable at 76 years. One-year NS decreased from 83.9% in 1990–2001 to 81.9% in 2009–2015 and 2-year NS from 72.2% to 70.5%. Five|2-year CNS increased from 85.7% to 86.7%. These trends were not significant. In the age stratum 70–79 years, a weakly significant decrease in 2-year NS from 71.4% to 65.7% occurred. Multivariate analysis adjusting for age group at diagnosis and geographic area showed an excess risk of death at 5|2-years, of borderline significance, in 2003–2015 versus 1990–2002. (4) Conclusions: One- and 2-year NS and 5|2-year CNS showed no improvements. Current strategies for VSCC control need to be revised both in Italy and at the global level.

Patient presentation, skin biopsy utilization and cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence and mortality in northern Italy: Trends and correlations

BACKGROUND

The global increase in incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) occurring in the past decades has been partly attributed to increased diagnostic scrutiny of early lesions, with a potential phenomenon of overdiagnosis. The reported positive linear relation between skin biopsy rate and incidence of early CMM is compatible with this hypothesis.

OBJECTIVES

We explored the ecological association between the trends in annual dermatologic office visit rates, skin biopsy rates, incidence rates of in situ and invasive CMM by tumour thickness category, and CMM mortality rates in the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy).

METHODS

Four cancer registries covering a population of 2,696,000 provided CMM incidence data for the years 2003-2017. Dermatologic office visit rates and skin biopsy rates were calculated using the Regional outpatient care database. All rates were age-standardized. Trends were described with the estimated average annual per cent change (EAAPC). Correlations were tested with the Spearman correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

Incidence increased significantly. The increase was steeper for in situ CMM (EAAPC: men, 10.2; women, 6.9) followed by CMM <0.8 mm thick (9.1; 5.2), but the rates grew significantly for most subgroups of CMMs ≥0.8 mm thick. Mortality decreased significantly among women (-2.3) and non-significantly among men. For dermatologic office visit rate and skin biopsy rate the EAAPC were, respectively, 1.7 and 1.8 for men and 1.2 and 0.9 for women. Annual dermatologic office visit rate correlated with skin biopsy rate in both sexes. However, the proportion of skin biopsies out of dermatologic office visits was constant across the years (range: men, 0.182-0.216; women, 0.157-0.191).

CONCLUSIONS

In Italy, the increasing CMM incidence trend is, at least in part, genuine. Overdiagnosis-if any-is due to an increased patient presentation at dermatologic offices and not to a lower dermatologic threshold to perform biopsy.

Effects of Attendance to an Organized Fecal Immunochemical Test Screening Program on the Risk of Colorectal Cancer: An Observational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

This cohort study compared colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality between people who participated in an Italian regional biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening program and people who did not.

METHODS

The program started in 2005. The target population included over 1,000,000 people aged 50 to 69 years. The FIT was a one-sample OC-Sensor (Eiken Chemical Co, Tokyo, Japan) (cutoff, ≥20 μg hemoglobin/g feces). The average annual response rate to invitation was 51.4%. The records of people invited up to June 2016 were extracted from the screening data warehouse. Attenders were subjects who responded to the first 2 invitations or to the single invitation sent them before they became ineligible. Non-attenders were subjects who did not respond to any of these invitations. The records were linked with the regional CRC registry. People registered up to December 2016 were identified. Self-selection-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and incidence-based CRC mortality rate ratios (MRRs) for attenders to non-attenders, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were calculated.

RESULTS

The cohort generated 2,622,131 man-years and 2,887,845 woman-years at risk with 4490 and 3309 CRC cases, respectively. The cohort of attenders was associated with an IRR of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.61-0.69) for men, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.80) for women and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for both sexes combined. The self-selection-adjusted IRR was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) for men and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.88) for women. The IRR for stage I, II, III, and IV CRC was 1.35 (95% CI, 1.20-1.50), 0.61 (95% CI, 0.53-0.69), 0.60 (95% CI, 0.53-0.68) and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.24-0.32) for men and 1.64 (95% CI, 1.43-1.89), 0.60 (95% CI, 0.52-0.69), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.63-0.85) and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.30-0.42) for women. The overall incidence-based CRC MRR was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.28-0.37) for men, 0.40 (95% CI, 0.34-0.47) for women and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.31-0.39) for both sexes combined. The adjusted MRR was 0.35 (95% CI, 0.29-0.41) for men and 0.46 (95% CI, 0.37-0.58) for women.

CONCLUSIONS

Attendance to a FIT screening program is associated with a CRC incidence reduction of 33% among men and 21% among women, and a CRC mortality reduction of 65% and 54%, respectively.

[Update of survival of cancer patients in Italy: geographical comparisons and focus on patients with cancers targeted by screening programmes, childhood cancers, and smoking-associated cancers]

OBJECTIVES

to update the Italian estimates of survival for patients with a paediatric cancer, tobacco smoke-associated cancers, and cancers targeted by screening; to assess geographical differences.

DESIGN

population-based descriptive study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

incident cancer cases diagnosed in 2010-2014, with follow-up to 2018, from 17 Italian cancer registries (covering 31% of the national population; 43% of the population residing in the North-Centre of the country and 8% of the population living in the South and Islands).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

age-standardized 5-year net survival (NS) by cancer site or type, sex, age, and geographical area.

RESULTS

NS of patients aged ≥15 years with breast, prostate, colorectal, and lung cancers was higher in the North-Centre than in the South and Islands. The overall survival of people diagnosed with cancer in childhood (0-14 years) was 84.3%, with similar values among the geographical macro-areas and between males and females. Women with breast cancer within the current target age of the screening programmes and those in the younger age groups (45-49 years) show similar survival values; the same is true for women with colorectal cancer. In both cases, survival decreased in the age groups after the age of cessation of screening programmes. Survival of patients with tobacco smoke-associated cancers varies according to cancer site (from 11.1% for patients with pancreatic cancer to 79.7% for those with bladder cancer). For most cancer sites, women have higher survival than men.

CONCLUSIONS

for adults, a geographical survival gap persists. The results may contribute to the debate on extending the target age for screening programmes and to support initiatives to encourage tobacco smoking cessation even after cancer diagnosis. For patients who receive a cancer diagnosis in childhood, survival similar to highest values internationally.

The relative contribution of the decreasing trend in tumour thickness to the 2010s increase in net survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy: a population-based investigation

BACKGROUND

The long-term increase in survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is generally attributed to the decreasing trend in tumour thickness, the single most important prognostic factor.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the relative contribution of decreased tumour thickness to the favourable trend in survival from CMM in Italy.

METHODS

Eleven local cancer registries covering a population of 8 056 608 (13.4% of the Italian population in 2010) provided records for people with primary CMM registered between 2003 and 2017. Age-standardized 5-year net survival was calculated. Multivariate analysis of 5-year net survival was undertaken by calculating the relative excess risk (RER) of death. The relative contribution of the decrease in tumour thickness to the RER of death was evaluated using a forward stepwise flexible parametric survival model including the available prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Over the study period, tumour thickness was inversely associated with 5-year net survival and multivariate RER in both sexes. The median thickness was 0.90 mm in 2003-2007, 0.85 mm in 2008-2012 and 0.75 mm in 2013-2017 among male patients, and 0.78 mm, 0.77 mm and 0.68 mm among female patients, respectively. The 5-year net survival was 86.8%, 89.2% and 93.2% in male patients, and 91.4%, 92.0% and 93.4% in female patients, respectively. In 2013-2017, male patients exhibited the same survival as female patients despite having thicker lesions. For them, the increasing survival trend was more pronounced with increasing thickness, and the inclusion of thickness in the forward stepwise model made the RER in 2013-2017 vs. 2003-2007 increase from 0.64 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.80] to 0.70 (95% CI 0.57-0.86). This indicates that the thickness trend accounted for less than 20% of the survival increase. For female patients, the results were not significant but, with multiple imputation of missing thickness values, the RER rose from 0.74 (95% CI 0.58-0.93) to 0.82 (95% CI 0.66-1.02) in 2013-2017.

CONCLUSIONS

For male patients in particular, decrease in tumour thickness accounted for a small part of the improvement in survival observed in 2013-2017. The introduction of targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors in 2013 is most likely to account for the remaining improvement.

Integrating mammography screening programmes into specialist breast centres in Italy: insights from a national survey of Senonetwork breast centres

Background

Despite recommendations, mammography screening is often insufficiently integrated into specialist breast centres. A national, cross-sectional, voluntary, online survey on this issue was carried out among the Italian breast centres associated with Senonetwork, the Italian network of breast cancer services.

Methods

A 73-item questionnaire was created, pre-tested and piloted. Centres integrating and not integrating a screening programme were compared using the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model. Centres’ clustering was performed using the Gower’s distance metric. Groups and clusters were compared with the equality-of-means test.

Results

The response rate was 82/128 (65%). Overall, 84% (69/82) breast centres reported a collaboration with a screening programme in performing and/or reading mammograms and in the diagnostic work-up of women with abnormal screening results. The same proportion was observed among those centres responding to all questions (62/74). Performance expectancies (or the perceived usefulness of integration in terms of clinical quality, patient convenience, ease of job, and professional growth), satisfaction and motivation were higher in those centres collaborating with the screening programme. Effort expectancy indicators (or the degree to which the respondents believe that the integration is easy to implement) and those concerning the existence of facilitating conditions were lower both in centres collaborating and not collaborating with the screening programme. Among the former, six clusters of centres, distributed from ‘no integration’ to ‘high’, were identified. In cluster analysis, the highest level of integration was associated with higher agreement that integration eases the job, offers better opportunities for professional growth, and makes the working environment more satisfactory. The least integrated cluster assigned the lowest score to the statement that local health authority made available the resources needed.

Conclusions

While confirming the positive effects of integrating screening programmes into breast centres, this survey has brought to light specific difficulties that must be faced. The results provide insights into the importance of integration focusing on the perspectives of professional career and motivation. The deficiency of facilitating conditions to integration is modifiable. Screening professionals’ societies may have a role as initiators of the integration. Other supporting actions may be included in health laws at the national and regional level.

Clinical Epidemiology of Microinvasive Cervical Carcinoma in an Italian Population Targeted by a Screening Programme

Simple Summary

According to this population-based study, 3750 patients living in the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy) were registered with cervical carcinoma between 1995–2016, including 2942 eligible patients. The likelihood of stage IA cervical carcinoma (n = 876, 29.8%) did not change over time, decreased with increasing patient age, and was lower for patients with adenocarcinoma and grade 3–4 disease. Three hundred and fifty (40.0%) patients had a conservative treatment, 317 (36.2%) had hysterectomy, 197 (22.5%) had hysterectomy with lymph node dissection (LND), and 12 (1.4%) had a conservative treatment with LND. The proportion of hysterectomy decreased from 70.6% in 1995–1999 to 46.9% in 2011–2016. The likelihood of hysterectomy increased above the age of 40. Among screening-aged (25–64 years) patients, the likelihood of hysterectomy did not differ between screen-detected and non-screen-detected ones. Hysterectomy was increasingly combined with LND. High tumour grade was the strongest determinant of LND during hysterectomy.

Abstract

(1) Background: This population-based study aimed at identifying the factors associated with the likelihood of detection of stage IA cervical carcinoma—versus the detection of stage IB through IV cervical carcinoma—and the patterns of surgical treatment. (2) Methods: Between 1995–2016, 3750 patients living in the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy) were registered with cervical carcinoma, including 2942 eligible patients (median age, 53). Multivariate analysis was performed using binary logistic regression models. (3) Results: The likelihood of stage IA cervical carcinoma (n = 876, 29.8%) did not change over time, decreased with increasing patient age, and was lower for patients with adenocarcinoma and grade 3–4 disease. Three hundred and fifty (40.0%) patients had a conservative treatment, 317 (36.2%) had hysterectomy, 197 (22.5%) had hysterectomy with lymph node dissection (LND), and 12 (1.4%) had a conservative treatment with LND. The proportion of hysterectomy decreased from 70.6% in 1995–1999 to 46.9% in 2011–2016. The likelihood of hysterectomy increased above the age of 40. Among screening-aged (25–64 years) patients, the likelihood of hysterectomy did not differ between screen-detected and non-screen-detected ones. Hysterectomy was increasingly combined with LND. High tumour grade was the strongest determinant of LND during hysterectomy. (4) Conclusions: This study provided a multifaceted overview of stage IA cervical carcinoma over the last decades.

How a faecal immunochemical test screening programme changes annual colorectal cancer incidence rates: an Italian intention-to-screen study

Background

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programme in reducing annual colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in its dynamic target population.

Methods

The target population included over 1,000,000 persons aged 50–69 living in a region of northern Italy. The average annual response rate to invitation was 51.4%. Each observed annual age-standardised (Europe) rate per 100,000 persons between 2005, the year of introduction of the programme, and 2016 was compared with each expected annual rate as estimated with age-period-cohort (men) and age-period (women) models.

Results

For both sexes, the rates observed in 1997–2004 and those expected in 2005–2016 were stable. Observed rates increased in 2005, peaked in 2006 (the first full year of screening), dropped significantly below the expected level in 2009, and continued to decrease until 2013 (the eighth full year), after which no further significant changes occurred. In the pooled years 2013–2016, the observed incidence rate per 100,000 persons was 102.2 [95% CI: 97.4, 107.1] for men, 75.6 [95% CI: 71.6, 79.7] for women and 88.4 [95% CI: 85.3, 91.5] for both sexes combined, with an observed:expected incidence rate ratio of 0.68 [95% CI: 0.65, 0.71], 0.79 [95% CI: 0.76, 0.82] and 0.72 [95% CI: 0.66, 0.81], respectively.

Discussion

The study provided multiple consistent proofs of a causal relationship between the introduction of screening and a stable 28% decrease in annual CRC incidence after eight years.

Provision of follow-up care for women with a history of breast cancer following the 2016 position paper by the Italian Group for Mammographic Screening and the Italian College of Breast Radiologists by SIRM: a survey of Senonetwork Italian breast centres

Introduction

In 2016, the Italian Group for Mammography Screening and the Italian College of Breast Radiologists by the Italian Society of Medical and Interventional Radiology recommended that screening programmes and specialist breast centres actively invite women with a history of breast cancer to follow-up imaging.

Objective

A survey of breast centres associated with Senonetwork, the Italian network of breast cancer services, has offered the opportunity to assess the implementation of this recommendation.

Methods

A national, cross-sectional, voluntary, online survey was developed, pre-tested, and administered during the months July–October 2020. Five of the 73 questionnaire items concerned breast cancer follow-up.

Results

The response rate was 82/128 (65%). Of the 82 respondent centres, 69 (84%) were involved in a screening programme. Fifty-six (68%) reported the presence of a programme of active invitation to breast cancer follow-up targeted at patients living in their catchment area, with a significant north-to-south gradient. Four centres (5%) reported that the screening programme was responsible for actively initiating follow-up during the 10-year period since diagnosis. Only after 10 years did the proportion increase moderately.

Conclusion

Screening programmes have still a marginal role in active breast cancer follow-up.

An image quality review programme in a population-based mammography screening service

INTRODUCTION

Mammography is one of the most technically demanding radiographic processes, and mammography quality assurance initiatives are priorities in the implementation of public health screening services. In the optimisation of image quality (IQ), radiographers play a major role. Between 1998 and 2009, the steering committee for mammography of a large population-based screening service in northern Italy undertook several audit checks of the imaging facilities. In 2009, the target age range of the screening service was extended. The mammogram volume was projected to increase steeply but with no substantial increase in the radiographer workforce.

METHODS

In view of the potential impact on mammographic IQ, the passive audit approach was abandoned in favour of an active radiographer-oriented IQ review programme. Its technical basis consists of regularly repeated rounds of review of random samples of digital mammograms performed by each first-level radiographer and by more experienced local reference radiographers, with IQ classification, followed by a training effort and a monitoring work.

RESULTS

The mammogram volume grew from 140,822 in 2008 to 319,394 in 2014 (+127%) and then stabilised. In 2012, the proportion of mammograms with a poor IQ rose from 0.6% to 19.3%, paralleled by a substantial decrease of mammograms interpreted to have a moderate and perfect IQ. Conversely, a generalised improvement occurred in both rounds of 2016 and in the first round of 2018.

CONCLUSION

In the new challenging scenario, the programme proved to be effective. A successful IQ review initiative is one that encourages radiographers to participate with a positive and confident attitude.

Five-year annual incidence and clinico-molecular features of breast cancer after the last negative screening mammography at age 68-69

OBJECTIVE

The European Commission Initiative on Breast Cancer recommendation for triennial screening of women aged 70-74 is based on very weak evidence. A cohort of Italian women who had their last biennial screening mammography at age 68-69 was followed up for 5 years, assumed to represent the interval to another hypothetical screening mammography, in order to determine the annual proportional incidence of interval breast cancer.

METHODS

The cohort included 118,370 women. They had their last mammography between 1997 and 2008. Incident breast cancers were identified by record-linking the cohort with the regional breast cancer registry. The expected incidence in the age range 65-74 was estimated with an age-period-cohort model. The number of interval cancers was divided by the expected number to obtain their proportional incidence.

RESULTS

Overall, there were 298,658 woman-years at risk with 371 interval cancers versus 988.8 expected. In the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth interval year, the proportional incidence was 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.06-0.13), 0.32 (0.25-0.39), 0.60 (0.49-0.73), 0.75 (0.60-0.92), and 0.81 (0.60-1.07), respectively. Between the second and the fifth year, tumour stage and molecular subtype did not change significantly.

CONCLUSION

Though not supported by these findings, the proposal of triennial screening for women aged 70-74 merits further research, because the 95% confidence interval of the third-year proportional incidence of interval cancer included 0.50-the maximum limit considered acceptable for women aged 50-69.

KEY POINTS

• The third-year incidence of breast cancer relative to the expected one was 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.49-0.73). • Between the second and the fifth year, tumour stage and molecular subtype did not change significantly (p >0.10). • The proposal of a 3-year screening interval at age 70-74 merits further evaluation.

Screening of women with aesthetic prostheses in dedicated sessions of a population-based breast cancer screening programme

BACKGROUND

Women with aesthetic prostheses must be included in the target population of mammography screening programmes. Breast implants are radiopaque and partially obscure the breast tissue. This can be avoided with the use of the Eklund technique, which causes an increased radiation exposure. In this study, augmented women undergoing a dedicated protocol within a population-based screening programme were compared according to selected indicators with the standard screening population. Essential dosimetric parameters and their time trend were also assessed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study was conducted in a screening centre in Milan in the years 2009-2016. The screening protocol for women with breast implants included a double-read mammography with the Eklund views, ultrasound and clinical breast examination.

RESULTS

A total of 28,794 women were enrolled, including 588 (2%) women with breast implants and 28,206 (98%) undergoing the standard screening protocol. The invasive assessment rate was 9.0‰ for women with breast implants vs. 15‰ in the standard cohort. The surgical referral rate was 2.2% vs. 0.9%. The detection rate was similar in the two groups (4.0 and 4.5‰, respectively). There were significant differences in the average glandular dose according to the mammography equipment. The use of the Eklund views increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening of augmented women according to a specific protocol in the contexts of population-based programmes is feasible. Observed differences in screening indicators relative to the standard screening population require further research. The increasing use of Eklund views probably results from quality assurance measures associated with screening programmes.

[Early effects of attendance to the Friuli Venezia Giulia (Northern Italy) mammography screening programme on the incidence of advanced-stage breast cancer: a cohort study]

OBJECTIVES

to evaluate the incidence of advanced-stage breast cancer (BC) - an early surrogate indicator of effectiveness of mammography screening - among women who attended the Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) Region (Northern Italy) screening programme compared to women who did not attend.

DESIGN

retrospective cohort study. Women invited to the first screening round (2006-2007) were identified from the database of the programme. The cohort was record-linked to the archive of women invited to the second round (2008-2009). The definition of attendance to screening was based on attendance to at least one of the two rounds. The incidence of BC was assessed through record linkage with the FVG cancer registry using an anonymous univocal identifier (end of follow-up: 31st December 2013). Three distinct definitions of advanced stage were used: pT2 or greater (pT2+), positive lymph nodes (pN+), and TNM stage II or greater (stage II+).

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

organized mammography screening programme for women aged 50-69 years in the five regional healthcare districts.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

incidence rate ratio (IRR) between attenders and non-attenders, adjusted for age and deprivation index, with 95% confidence interval (95%CI).

RESULTS

the cohort included 104,488 attenders and 49,839 non-attenders. During follow-up (median duration 84 months), 2,717 invasive BCs were diagnosed among attenders and 1,149 among non-attenders. Total incidence rate was 13% higher among attenders (IRR 1.13; 95%CI 1.05-1.21). These, conversely, had a 36% lower rate of pT2+ BC (IRR 0.64; 95%CI 0.56-0.72), a 13% lower rate of pN+ BC (IRR 0.87; 95%CI 0.78-0.98), a 22% lower rate of stage II+ BC (IRR 0.78; 95%CI 0.70-0.87), and a 32% lower rate of mastectomy (IRR 0.68; 95%CI 0.60-0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

attenders had lower incidence rates of advanced-stage BC. This early effect is suggestive of a future impact of the screening programme on BC mortality.

Mid-term trends and recent birth-cohort-dependent changes in incidence rates of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy

In Oceania, North America and north-western Europe, after decades of increase, cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) rates began to stabilise or decline before 2000. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the reversal of the incidence trend is extending to southern Europe. To obtain a formal confirmation, this nationwide study from Italy investigated the incidence trends by birth cohort. Twenty-one local cancer registries covering a population of 15 814 455 provided incidence data for primary CMM registered between 1994 and 2013. Trends in age-standardised rates were analysed using joinpoint regression models and age-period-cohort models. Age-standardised incidence showed a consistent increase throughout the period (estimated annual percent change, 3.6 [95% confidence interval, 3.2-4.0] among men and 2.5 [2.0-3.1] among women). This pattern was confirmed by a sensitivity analysis with removal of low-risk populations of southern Italy. The rates, however, showed a stabilisation or a decrease in men and women aged below 35. Using the cohort of 1949-the median cohort with respect to the number of cases for both genders-as a reference, the incidence rate ratio increased for successive cohorts born until 1973 (women) and 1975 (men), and subsequently tended to decline. For the most recent cohorts in both genders, the risk of disease returned to the level of the cohort of 1949. The changes observed in the latest generations can be interpreted as the earliest manifestations of a birth-cohort-dependent incidence decrease. Our study adds to previous data indicating that the reversal of the long-term upward incidence trend of CMM is extending to southern Europe.

Incidence of interval breast cancer among women aged 45-49 in an organised mammography screening setting

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the proportional incidence (PI) of first- and second-year interval breast cancer among women aged 45-49.

METHODS

In the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy), women aged 45-49 are invited to mammography screening annually, and women aged 50-74 biennially. For younger ones, the proportional incidence of interval cancer in the first and unique interval year was calculated using standard methods. For the second, hypothetical year, it was estimated using two different estimates of the ratio between the second- and the first-year proportional incidence observed among women aged 50-54. Overall, 567,151 negative mammography records were used.

RESULTS

In the first interval year, the observed proportional incidence of interval cancer among women aged 45-49 was 0.27 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.22-0.33), within the European limit considered desirable for women aged 50-69 (<0.30). In the second, hypothetical interval year, the estimated proportional incidence ranged from 0.61 (95% CI, 0.43-0.86) to 0.48 (95% CI, 0.31-0.76) depending on whether the estimate was based on data from the pre-digital or digital era, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The more up-to-date estimate of 0.48, slightly below the maximum limit considered acceptable for women aged 50-69 (<0.50), suggests that a screening interval of two years may also be an acceptable option for women aged 45-49.

Assessment of Cancer Care Costs in Disease-Specific Cancer Care Pathways

In view of an efficient use of the Italian National Health Service-funded healthcare resources, a novel data-processing strategy combining information from multiple sources was developed in a regional cancer network of northern Italy. The goal was to calculate the annual overall cost of care pathways of six disease groups in 10,486 patients. The evaluation was conceived as a population-based cost description from the perspective of the Italian National Health Service. Costs occurred during a defined time period for a cross-section of patients at varying stages of their disease were measured. The total cancer care cost was €81,170,121 (11.1% of total local health expenditure), with a cost per patient of €7741.17 and a cost per capita of €204.62. Surgical, inpatient and day-hospital medical admissions, radiotherapy, drugs, outpatient care, emergency admissions, and home and hospice care accounted for 21.2%, 24.1%, 6.2%, 28.2%, 14.0%, 0.9%, and 5.4% of the total cost, respectively. The highest cost items included drugs (cost per capita, €22.95; 11.2% of total cost) and medical admissions (€14.51; 7.1%) for blood cancer, and surgical (€14.56; 7.1%) and medical admissions (€13.60; 6.6%) for gastrointestinal cancer. The information extracted allows multidisciplinary cancer care teams to be more aware of the costs of their clinical decisions.

Could Inflammatory Indices and Metabolic Syndrome Predict the Risk of Cancer Development? Analysis from the Bagnacavallo Population Study

Background: Despite the robust data available on inflammatory indices (neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII)) and clinical outcome in oncological patients, their utility as a predictor of cancer incidence in the general population has not been reported in literature. Methods: The Bagnacavallo study was performed between October 2005 and March 2009. All citizens of Bagnacavallo (Ravenna, Emilia-Romagna, Italy) aged 30–60 years as of January 2005 were eligible and were invited by written letter to participate to the study. All participants underwent a detailed clinical history and physical examination following the model of the Dionysos Study. All blood values included in the analysis were obtained the day of physical examination. Cancer incidence data were obtained from the population-based Romagna Cancer Registry, which operates according to standard methods. The aim of this analysis was to examine the association between metabolic syndrome and baseline SII, NLR, and PLR levels, and the diagnosis of an invasive cancer in the Bagnacavallo study cohort. Results: At univariate analysis, metabolic syndrome was not associated with an increase of cancer incidence (HR 1.30; p = 0.155). High glucose (HR 1.49; p = 0.0.16), NLR HR 1.54, p = 0.002), PLR (HR 1.58, p = 0.001), and SII (HR 1.47, p = 0.006) were associated with an increase of cancer incidence. After adjusting for clinical covariates (smoking, physical activity, education, age, and gender) SII, PLR, and NLR remained independent prognostic factors for the prediction of cancer incidence. Conclusions: Inflammatory indices are promising, easy to perform, and inexpensive tools for identifying patients with higher risk of cancer in cancer-free population.

Incidence trends of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma in Italy from 1990 to 2015

OBJECTIVE

The incidence of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma has increased for decades in most Western countries - a trend virtually restricted to women aged <50 or 60 years. In southern Europe, conversely, the trends have been insufficiently studied. This article reports a study from Italy.

METHOD

Thirty-eight local cancer registries, currently covering 15,274,070 women, equivalent to 49.2% of the Italian national female population, participated. Invasive cancers registered between 1990 and 2015 with an International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd revision, topography code C51 and morphology codes compatible with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (n = 6294) were eligible. Incidence trends were analysed using joinpoint regression models, with calculation of the estimated annual percent change (EAPC), and age-period-cohort models.

RESULTS

Total incidence showed a regular and significant decreasing trend (EAPC, -0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI), -1.43 to -0.48). This was entirely accounted for by women aged ≥60 years (EAPC, -1.34; 95% CI, -1.86 to -0.81). For younger women, the EAPC between 1990 and 2012 was 1.20 (95% CI, 0.34 to 2.06) with a non-significant acceleration thereafter. This pattern did not vary substantially in a sensitivity analysis for the effect of geographic area and duration of the registry. The age-period-cohort analysis revealed a risk decrease in cohorts born between 1905 and 1940 and a new increase in cohorts born since 1945.

CONCLUSIONS

The decreasing trend observed among older women and the resulting decrease in total rate are at variance with reports from most Western countries. Age-period-cohort analysis confirmed a decreasing trend for earliest birth cohorts and an opposite one for recent ones.

Proportional incidence of interval colorectal cancer in a large population-based faecal immunochemical test screening programme

BACKGROUND

The European guidelines for quality assurance in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommend that interval cancer rate be expressed as a proportion of background incidence rate.

AIM

To determine the crude and adjusted proportional incidence of interval CRC in an Italian regional two-yearly faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programme.

METHODS

The programme (year of implementation, 2005) is targeted at over 1,000,000 people aged 50-69 years. The test is a one-sample OC-Sensor (Eiken Chemical Co., Tokyo, Japan). The study covered one-third of the regional area. Excerpts of 434,295 eligible negative FIT records dated 2005-2012 from 193,193 subjects were retrieved from the regional CRC screening data warehouse. By 31 December 2013, the cohort accumulated 198,302 man-years and 235,370 woman-years. Interval CRCs were identified by record-linkage with the local population-based cancer registry. Their number was divided by the expected number, estimated with age-period-cohort models, to obtain the proportional incidence.

RESULTS

The proportional incidence of interval CRC for men and women was, respectively, 0.06 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.04-0.09) and 0.17 (95% CI, 0.13-0.23) in the first interval year, and 0.21 (95% CI, 0.16-0.26) and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.22-0.36) in the second year.

CONCLUSIONS

The results were acceptable and in line with previous studies.

Time trends and age-period-cohort analysis of cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence rates in the Romagna Region (northern Italy), 1986-2014

After a long-term increase, the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma has stabilized recently or even decreased in several populations of North-western Europe, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, but not in southern Europe. The incidence trends of primary invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, codes C43.0-C43.9) in the Romagna Region (northern Italy, 1.2 million inhabitants) for the period 1986-2014 were analysed with an age-period-cohort modelling approach. The series included 2466 men and 2481 women, a total of 4947 patients. Using the method of model building, the best-fitting models were found to be an age-drift model for men and an age-period model for women. Among men, the age-specific incidence rates increased in each successive cohort born between 1916 and 1981 with an attenuation of the trend for younger ones in the last cohorts. Among younger women, a slight decrease occurred for the cohorts born after 1961. For men, the quasi-parallel appearance of incidence curves by age group and cohort on a log scale suggested that the observed change was explained by a linear cohort effect. For women, the curves tended to overlap, suggesting an interaction between age and cohort that could be explained as a nonlinear period effect. In conclusion, the long-term upward incidence trend in the study area is stabilizing among women and an attenuation of the increasing trend is occurring among younger men in the most recent cohorts. These observations need to be confirmed with longer-term studies.

A regional population-based hereditary breast cancer screening tool in Italy: First 5-year results

Background

Up to 10% of individuals with breast cancer (BC) belong to families with hereditary syndromes. The aim of this study was to develop an instrument to identify individuals/families at high‐hereditary risk for BC and offer dedicated surveillance programs according to different risks.

Methods

The instrument consisted of a primary questionnaire collecting history of BC and ovarian cancer (OC). This questionnaire was applied to women enrolled in the Emilia‐Romagna Breast Cancer Screening Program. General practitioners (GPs) and specialists could propose the same questionnaire too. Women with a score of ≥ 2, were invited to complete an oncogenetic counseling. According to the Tyrer‐Cuzick evaluation, women considered at high risk were invited to involve the most representative alive individual of the family affected with BC/OC for BRCA1/2 genetic testing.

Results

Since January 2012 and December 2016, 660 040 women were evaluated by the regional screening program, of which 22 289 (3.5%) were invited to the Spoke evaluation, but only 5615 accepted (25.2%). Totally, also considering women sent by GPs and specialists, 11 667 were assessed and 5554 were sent to the Hub evaluation. Finally, 2342 (42.8%) women fulfilled the criteria for genetic testing, and 544 (23.2%) resulted BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

Conclusions

To our knowledge, this is the first regional population‐based multistep model that is aimed to identify individuals with BRCA1/2 mutations and to offer an intensive surveillance program for hereditary‐high risk women. This tool is feasible and effective, even if more efforts must be performed to increase the acceptance of multiple assessments by the study population.

Evaluating the appropriateness of chemotherapy in a low-resource cancer centre in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

To evaluate the appropriateness of chemotherapy use at the Oncology Department of the Bugando Medical Centre of Mwanza, Tanzania.

Methods

The study was an observational prevalence‐based study designed to evaluate a single‐chemotherapy cycle during a defined time period for a cross‐section of patients at varying stages of their clinical history. The sample included 103 consecutive subjects who were treated during January‐March 2017 and had at least one previous cycle. Chemotherapy treatment omissions, cycle delays, and dose reductions and their causes were recorded using a standard form that included demographic, anthropometric, and clinical items. The data were analyzed descriptively.

Results

There were 59 males (57.3%) and 44 females (42.7%). Ninety‐four patients were aged ≥18 years. Considering cancer type/site, there were 23 distinct groups of patients. The recorded number of drugs in the chemotherapy regimens varied between one and five. The median cycle number was three (range: 2‐11). Sixty‐eight (66.0%) patients were treated in a standard fashion. For the remaining, cycle delay and dose reduction were the most common cause for nonstandard treatment. Hematologic toxicity was responsible for the greater part of cycle delays, whereas dose reductions were accounted for by a larger spectrum of causes. Overall, toxicity explained 21/35 (60.0%) patients receiving nonstandard treatment. The distribution of toxic events was skewed toward grade 1 and grade 2.

Conclusions

The observed level of appropriateness of chemotherapy was encouraging. The proportion of patients experiencing severe toxic effects was lower than expected.

Changes in the incidence of cervical tumours by disease stage in a cytology-based screening programme

OBJECTIVES

To report changes in incidence of cervical tumours by disease stage, following the introduction of an organized cytology-based screening programme.

METHODS

An intention-to-screen study of a cytology-based screening programme targeting 1,219,000 women aged 25-64 in northern Italy was carried out. Based on the previously reported trend in total incidence of cervical cancer, the study period 1995-2014 was divided into 1995-1996 (pre-screening, or reference, years), 1997-1998 (screening implementation phase), 1999-2006 (transition phase, when incidence decreased), and 2007-2014 (steady-state phase, when incidence stabilized again). Tumour stage was categorized as preinvasive (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) and adenocarcinoma in situ), early (pT1a), advanced (pT1b or greater, ypT), and unknown (pT1 not otherwise specified, pTx, missing information). Average annual incidence rates observed in each phase were compared with the expected (reference) rates, using the incidence rate ratio, calculated with a Poisson regression model.

RESULTS

In the steady-state phase, incidence rate ratios were: CIN3, 1.55 (95% confidence interval, 1.41-1.70); early-stage squamous carcinoma, 0.49 (0.36-0.67); advanced-stage squamous carcinoma, 0.44 (0.33-0.57); unknown-stage squamous carcinoma, 0.69 (0.48-0.99); adenocarcinoma in situ, 1.44 (0.72-2.88); early-stage adenocarcinoma, 2.65 (0.82-8.53); advanced-stage adenocarcinoma, 1.03 (0.56-1.91); and unknown-stage adenocarcinoma, 0.46 (0.23-0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

After stabilization, changes in incidence by tumour stage included a 55% increase for CIN3 and a 50-55% decrease both for early- and advanced-stage squamous carcinoma, but no significant changes for glandular tumours. These data will serve to quantify the incremental impact of the implementation of human papillomavirus-based screening, introduced in 2015.

Melanoma survival with Classification and Regression Trees Analysis: a complement for the communication of prognosis to patients

BACKGROUND

Prognostic factors in cutaneous melanoma are commonly evaluated by the Cox proportional hazard model. However, the interpretation of the effect of multiple variables is not straightforward. Classification and Regression Trees Analysis (CART), which allows a more friendly data evaluation, could be a valid integration of the message from Cox model.

METHODS

The CART algorithm splits up data, creating a "tree" of groups of patients with different profiles for the risk of death. Results are easy to interpret in clinical practice. A total of 2692 patients with invasive cutaneous melanoma registered in Romagna (northern Italy) between 1993-2012 and followed-up until the end of 2013 were included. The Cox model and CART analysis were applied to sex, patient age, histological subtype, Breslow's tumor thickness, ulceration, site of disease, and Clark level.

RESULTS

The CART analysis identified 15 categories which were collapsed into five classes with statistically different survival. The best prognostic group (10-year observed survival, 99.1%) included subjects with Breslow thickness ≤0.78 mm and age 16-81 years. The worst prognostic group (10-year observed survival, 35.8%) comprised subjects with thickness ≥3.75 mm and age 16-96 years. According to the Cox model, patient age, histological subtype, Breslow thickness, ulceration, and site of disease had a significant independent prognostic value.

CONCLUSIONS

CART and Cox models provided consistent results. CART seemed friendlier in its interpretation and it could facilitate the communication of risk.

Melanoma survival with Classification and Regression Trees Analysis: a complement for the communication of prognosis to patients

BACKGROUND

Prognostic factors in cutaneous melanoma are commonly evaluated by the Cox proportional hazard model. However, the interpretation of the effect of multiple variables is not straightforward. Classification and Regression Trees Analysis (CART), which allows a more friendly data evaluation, could be a valid integration of the message from Cox model.

METHODS

The CART algorithm splits up data, creating a "tree" of groups of patients with different profiles for the risk of death. Results are easy to interpret in clinical practice. A total of 2692 patients with invasive cutaneous melanoma registered in Romagna (northern Italy) between 1993-2012 and followed-up until the end of 2013 were included. The Cox model and CART analysis were applied to sex, patient age, histological subtype, Breslow's tumor thickness, ulceration, site of disease, and Clark level.

RESULTS

The CART analysis identified 15 categories which were collapsed into five classes with statistically different survival. The best prognostic group (10-year observed survival, 99.1%) included subjects with Breslow thickness ≤0.78 mm and age 16-81 years. The worst prognostic group (10-year observed survival, 35.8%) comprised subjects with thickness ≥3.75 mm and age 16-96 years. According to the Cox model, patient age, histological subtype, Breslow thickness, ulceration, and site of disease had a significant independent prognostic value.

CONCLUSIONS

CART and Cox models provided consistent results. CART seemed friendlier in its interpretation and it could facilitate the communication of risk.

Estimating the impact of an organised screening programme on cervical cancer incidence: A 26-year study from northern Italy

The impact of the organised cervical cancer (CC) screening programmes implemented in Europe since the 1990s has been insufficiently evaluated. We investigated the changes in CC incidence following the introduction of a screening programme in the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy). The study period was 1988-2013. The programme, targeting women aged 25-64 years (1,219,000 in 2018), started in 1998. The annual incidence rates that would be expected in 1998-2013 in the absence of screening were estimated, first, by analysing the annual rates in 1988-1997 with a log-linear model and, second, by analysing the annual rates in 1988-2013 with an age-period model in which the period effect was enforced to be linear. Cervical adenocarcinoma incidence trend over the entire period was used to validate both estimates. Observed annual rates were compared to the two series of expected ones with the incidence rate ratio (IRR). Incidence remained stable during 1988-1997, peaked in 1998 and then decreased until 2007, when it stabilised. The two series of expected rates were virtually coincident and their trends roughly paralleled the stable adenocarcinoma incidence trend. After 2007, the median IRR was 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.81) based on the log-linear model and 0.58 (95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.97) based on the age-period model. Thirty-six to seventy-five CC cases were prevented annually for an average annual frequency of 6.5 per 100,000 women in the target population. In summary, consistent circumstantial evidences were obtained that the organised screening programme brought about a 40% reduction in annual CC incidence after 10 years.

Analysis of Breslow Tumor Thickness Distribution of Skin Melanoma in the Italian Region of Romagna, 1986–1991

Aims and Background

In southern European countries, the availability of epidemiologic data on cutaneous malignant melanoma is limited. A descriptive analysis was performed on melanoma cases diagnosed in the Italian region of Romagna (population 600,000), 1986-91.

Methods

The main end point was the proportion of cases less than 1.5 mm thick by sex, age, and site.

Results

A total of 297 incident cases was evaluated. The average annual age-standardized (World) incidence rates were 6.2 (95% CI 5.2–7.2) per 100,000 females and 4.5 (95% CI 3.6–5.3) per 100,000 males. Females presented with significantly thinner melanomas than males. The proportion of cases less than 1.5 mm thick decreased significantly with increasing age in both sexes, with the most pronounced decrease (approximately from 2/3 to 1/3) being observed above 60 years for females and above 40 for males. Comparing sexes by 10-year age groups, a significant F:M advantage in thickness distribution was found only at age 40–49 and 50–59 years. Among females under 60, melanomas of the legs and those of the trunk showed no difference in thickness distribution, in both sexes, incidence appeared to increase progressively with age. No apparent elevation in incidence rates was observed in the age groups with the highest frequency of thin melanomas.

Conclusions

The major implication of these data is that in public education programs specific messages should be aimed at those subgroups that show the poorest levels of self-surveillance.

The impact of mammography screening programmes on incidence of advanced breast cancer in Europe: a literature review

Background

Observational studies have reported conflicting results on the impact of mammography service screening programmes on the advanced breast cancer rate (ABCR), a correlation that was firmly established in randomized controlled trials. We reviewed and summarized studies of the effect of service screening programmes in the European Union on ABCR and discussed their limitations.

Methods

The PubMed database was searched for English language studies published between 01-01-2000 and 01–06-2018. After inspection of titles and abstracts, 220 of the 8644 potentially eligible papers were considered relevant. Their abstracts were reviewed by groups of two authors using predefined criteria. Fifty studies were selected for full paper review, and 22 of these were eligible. A theoretical framework for their review was developed. Review was performed using a ten-point checklist of the methodological caveats in the analysis of studies of ABCR and a standardised assessment form designed to extract quantitative and qualitative information.

Results

Most of the evaluable studies support a reduction in ABCR following the introduction of screening. However, all studies were challenged by issues of design and analysis which could at least potentially cause bias, and showed considerable variation in the estimated effect. Problems were observed in duration of follow-up time, availability of reliable reference ABCR, definition of advanced stage, temporal variation in the proportion of unknown-stage cancers, and statistical approach.

Conclusions

We conclude that much of the current controversy on the impact of service screening programmes on ABCR is due to observational data that were gathered and/or analysed with methodological approaches which could not capture stage effects in full. Future research on this important early indicator of screening effectiveness should focus on establishing consensus in the correct methodology.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-4666-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

[Cancer and risk of suicide: follow-up and multidisciplinarity may offer opportunities for prevention.]

Suicide rate is two-fold higher among cancer patients than in the general population. General and cancer-related risk factors for suicide are easily identified by caregivers interacting with patients, but with the exception of depression - the strongest one. This hampers the feasibility of screening of patients by the treating personnel. While new treatments tend to make cancer a chronic disease, which exposes patients to prolonged periods of uncertainty about recurrences, two recent advances have improved the possibility to prevent suicide. On the one hand, the emerging concept of cancer survivorship care has placed the identification of long-term consequences of cancer and its treatments, including an increased risk for suicide, among the objectives of patient follow-up. On the other hand, models of multidisciplinary team care have been implemented in several areas of cancer management. Although the psycho-oncologist has a complementary role, a clear definition of its relationship with the multidisciplinary teams facilitates the adoption of screening programmes for the detection of conditions of increased risk for suicide in cancer care facilities.

Breslow Thickness of Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma in Ravenna (Northern Italy) 1981–1990

The distribution of Breslow's thickness by sex, age and site of 95 of the 103 cases of primary cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) diagnosed in 1981–1990 in the Ravenna Health District (a low-incidence area in northern Italy) was studied. The median patient age was 57 years. The median tumor thickness was 1.33 mm in females and 2.15 mm in males (two-tailed Wilcoxon rank sum test, p = 0.153). Significantly thinner lesions were found among women up to the median age than among men of the same age group (1.05 mm vs. 1.80 mm, p = 0.034) and older women (2.20 mm, p = 0.035). The difference between males aged under 57 years and older than 57 was not significant (1.80 mm vs. 2.20 mm, p = 0.828). As a consequence, younger women compared favorably with the rest of the population as a whole (2.20 mm, p = 0.011). No significant differences in site-specific median tumor thickness were found between the sexes or between young and older males, whereas CMMs of the legs among females were thinner in the younger age group (0.67 mm vs. 2.20 mm, p = 0.007). The prevalence of younger women in the recognition of early CMM was entirely accounted for by a substantial shift observed in the most recent 5-year period (from 2.40 mm to 0.70 mm, p = 0.006). Specific educational activities have never been carried out in Ravenna.

Self-Selection for Mammography and Breast Cancer Incidence by Stage

Aims and Background

In the field of breast cancer control, obtaining population-based data on spontaneous mammography (MG) screening should be a priority. This study focuses on the breast cancer incidence and stage distribution in relation to MG use in Ravenna (Italy), 1987-88.

Methods

We estimated the MG rates, expected (E) incidence based on mortality data, observed (O) incidence, predicted excess incidence based on MG rates, observed excess incidence, and stage distribution according to the MG history.

Results

The highest MG rate (37%) was found among residents aged 40-44 but none of these had a T1a-bN0 breast cancer diagnosed nor was the predicted excess incidence demonstrated. Between 45 and 64 years, 80% of self-selected screenees had repeat (“incidence”) MG and the O:E incidence ratio was 1.32 (95% Cl 1.09-1.58). The observed excess incidence was 3.8-fold (95% Cl 2.56-5.16) greater than that predicted. Advanced (T2+ and/or N1+) cases accounted for 42% of patients diagnosed within 3 years of their last MG, for 55% of those diagnosed more than 3 years after their last MG, and for 70% of those with no previous MG. Above age 70, a significant worsening of stage at diagnosis was associated with a clear-cut drop in the proportion of breast cancer patients with previous self-referral for MG.

Conclusions

The results indicate that self-selection and its implications are major features of spontaneous screening practice.

Effects of the Bethesda System on the Rate of Unsatisfactory Pap Smears in Spontaneous Cervical Screening

Aims

In 1990, The Bethesda System (TBS) was introduced into spontaneous cervical screening practice in Ravenna, Italy. Negative/benign reports with the recommendation for early repeat smears (RERS) due to some limitation in sample adequacy were considered no longer acceptable. A monitoring program for the rate of unsatisfactory smears (UNS) was implemented. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effects of such changes in the screening procedure.

Methods

The frequency of UNS in 1990 was compared with that of UNS+RERS in 1988 (assumed as a baseline year) by the calculation of the standardized rate ratio with the 95% confidence interval (CI). The trend in the standardized rate of UNS from 1990 to 1994 was evaluated by the calculation of the average annual variation with the 95% CI.

Results

The immediate effect of TBS (1990:1988 comparison) was a significant increase in the rate of UNS attributable to scant cellularity, poor fixation and thick areas (rate ratio, 2.35; 95% CI, 2.18 to 2.53) and to the absence of endocervical component (1.45; 95% CI, 1.30 to 1.60). The rate of UNS attributable to the presence of cytolysis, inflammation, blood and foreign material decreased by about 6 times (0.16; 95% CI, 0.13 to 0.19). The midterm effect of TBS (trend from 1990 to 1994) was a decrease in the total rate of UNS by an average of 2.3% per year. The downward trend was significant for smears showing scant cellularity, poor fixation and thick areas (-1.5% per year) and the absence of endocervical component (-0.7% per year). UNS attributable to the presence of cytolysis, inflammation, blood and foreign material stabilized.

Conclusions

TBS led to a substantial change in the type of information provided by the cytology report (Immediate effect). The monitoring program according to TBS led to a reduction in UNS attributable to sample taker (midterm effect).

A Feasibility Study of Ovarian Cancer Screening: Does Fine-Needle Aspiration Improve Ultrasound Specificity?

Aims and background

The prognosis for ovarian cancer patients depends on the stage at diagnosis. As a prerequisite for any proposed procedure for ovarian cancer screening, high levels of specificity should be obtained using combinations of tests. Based on preliminary data from an ongoing feasibility study, this report is focused on the possible gain in specificity provided by fine-needle aspiration of occult ovarian masses detected by ultrasound.

Methods

Ultrasonography was used as a basic test, and fine-needle aspiration was obtained from selected patients. Those with (a) positive aspiration cytology or histology, (b) complex or solid masses showing volume increase, (c) complex or irregular masses and inadequate samples, and (d) recurrent cystic lesions were operated on.

Results

A total of 3541 asymptomatic patients 50-69 years of age underwent ultrasonography, and 98 were selected for fine-needle aspiration. Of these, 19 (positivity rate 19/3541 or 0.5%) were operated on. Two ovarian cancer cases (FIGO Stage II and III) were detected (detection rate 2/3541 or 0.6 × 1,000; positive predictive value 2/19 or 10.5%). Specificity was 3443/3539 or 97.3% for ultrasound alone and 3522/3539 or 99.5% for the procedure as a whole. Surgical exploration for relapses of benign cysts reduced by some 50% the potential gain in positive predictive value provided by aspiration cytology compared with ultrasound alone.

Conclusions

Although fine-needle aspiration has improved the performance of ultrasound, this 2-levei procedure does not appear to achieve acceptable levels of specificity.

Spontaneous Screening for Cervical Cancer and Diagnostic Histories of Incident Cases

Cytologic and colposcopic histories of cases of invasive cervical cancer and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III (CIN III) registered in Ravenna (northern Italy) between 1986 and 1990 were evaluated. During the 5 years prior to diagnosis, 10/49 invasive cancer patients and 25/61 CIN III patients had had at least one pap smear reported as negative. At the time of the most recent false-negative report, 9/10 and 17/25 of these cases had been recommended for a repeat smear within 2 to 6 months. Of the 9 patients with invasive cancer, 5 had also undergone an inconclusive colposcopy (with biopsy unperformed). Among invasive cancer patients aged under 50, half of incident cases (7/14) and most of those with some cytologic experience (7/8) had had a false-negative report; each of these patients (7/7) had been recommended for an early repeat smear. For invasive cancer patients as well as for CIN III patients, the suggested intervals for the early repeat were largely exceeded. Median delay in diagnosis was about 2 years. Although the frequency of negative reports recommending repeat smears within a few months was estimated to be some 10 % of total screening patients, current concepts in cervical cytology suggest that cancer cases with such false-negative reports should be regarded as follow-up failures rather than laboratory errors. In fact, they passed quite unnoticed. In unplanned (spontaneous) cervical screening practice, sensitivity needs to be maximized, but even the occurrence of false-negative cases is not monitored. The present study points out what may result from such a contradiction.