Cancer Prevalence in Italian Cancer Registry Areas: The Itapreval Study

Correcting the Completeness BIAS of Observed Prevalence

Aims and Background

The cancer prevalence in given areas can be estimated on the basis of data supplied by cancer registries. As the obtained estimate of prevalence depends on the length of the cancer registry's observation period, it is generally lower than the total prevalence in the considered area. In the present work we propose a method to calculate a correction factor of this bias in order to obtain an approximation to the total prevalence.

Methods & Study Design

The method is based on the relationship between relative survival and incidence by age for a specific cancer site.

Results and Conclusions

We provide values of the correction factor, the completeness index R, relative to the most important cancer sites, for specific ages and periods of observation of the cancer registries in Italy. In addition, we provide indications for extended use of the index when substantial variations from the basic pattern of relative survival are observed in practical situations. Furthermore, we give helpful suggestions to obtain approximate values of the correction factor to be used for ages and periods of observation that are intermediate between the ones presented in this paper.

Cancer Prevalence in Italian Regions with Local Cancer Registries

Objective

To provide estimates and projections of cancer incidence and prevalence for those Italian regions whose population is partially covered by a cancer registry (CR) and to determine to what extent local CRs can be considered representative of the region, thus improving the potential of the information provided by CRs.

Methods

A statistical method, MIAMOD (mortality-incidence analysis model), was used to estimate regional cancer incidence and prevalence from regional cancer mortality data and patient survival data recorded by the cancer registries. Estimates of the cancer incidence and prevalence in the various regions have thus been obtained for a number of major cancer sites. A first and important step in validating the regional estimates has been the comparison of the MIAMOD estimates in the areas covered by the cancer registries with empirical incidence and prevalence observed by CRs, in order to assess the consistency in data, methods and assumptions. Empirical prevalence has been calculated by counting patients with a diagnosis of cancer who were alive on the reference date by PREVAL method. A correction factor has been applied to include patients diagnosed before the period of activity of the registry.

Results

General consistency was found between empirical and estimated (by MIAMOD) incidence and prevalence in the registry areas, which is indicative of the quality and the completeness of all data involved as well as the appropriateness of model choices. The prevalence of all cancers combined for Italian regions with CRs was estimated and projected to the year 2000 as ranging between 1,240 per 100,000 in Sicilia and 2,781 in Emilia-Romagna for men, while for women these figures were 1,765 in Sicilia and 4,019 in Liguria. Comparison of cancer prevalence in CR areas with regional estimates shows quite good consistency for Piemonte, Liguria and Lombardia, which means that the local CRs (of Torino, Genova and Varese, respectively) are representative of their respective regions. Prevalence in Emilia-Romagna appears to be rather well represented by only one, the Parma CR, of the three local CRs. The southern Italian registries of Latina and Ragusa recorded a lower cancer prevalence than was actually estimated in their respective regions.

Discussion

Cancer registries with a longer period of activity showed better agreement between empirical and estimated figures due to the more precise information provided, particularly regarding survival and incidence trends. In conclusion, this work shows the potential of the cancer registries not only to represent their population with respect to cancer morbidity but also as an invaluable tool to extrapolate this information to the larger areas they represent.

Cancer Prevalence in the Elderly

Aims and Background

To describe the cancer prevalence in elderly Italian people and analyze the differences, if any, with the prevalence among younger subjects.

Methods & Study Design

The cancer prevalence among elderly patients (65 years and over), the three age classes encompassing elderly age (65-74 years, 75-84 years, 85 years and over) and younger patients (0-64 years) was computed using the PREVAL method on the basis of the incident cases over the period 1976-1992 followed up to 31 December 1992 (prevalence reference date). Data were collected by 11 Italian cancer registries.

Results

The observed prevalence figures for all cancers (except skin epitheliomas), both sexes combined and considering the whole elderly group, were 1,090 and 3,601 cases per 100,000 one and five years since diagnosis, respectively; the prevalence increased up to the 75-84 age group and showed a slight decrease after age 85. With regard to specific cancer sites, in men bladder and prostate had the highest prevalence 5 years from diagnosis (more than 800 cases per 100,000), followed by colon and lung (about 500 cases per 100,000) stomach and rectum (about 300 cases per 100,000); in women breast cancer ranked first (more than 1,000 cases per 100,000), followed by colon (about 350 cases per 100,000), corpus uteri, stomach and rectum cancers (between 150 and 200 cases per 100,000). For all malignancies and the two sexes combined the prevalence figures were about six times higher in the older than in the younger age group.

Conclusions

These figures confirm the important role of aging in determining the increase in cancer prevalence. The resulting prevalence figures clearly indicate the cancer burden placed on health care services; moreover, the figures will probably increase in the next decades due to a possible improvement in survival and to the dramatic aging of the population, assuming a stable trend for incidence rates. This picture will represent a major challenge for politicians and those dealing with health care planning and social policies in general, especially in the light of the reduction of the available financial resources and the specific features of medical and social needs in the elderly.

The Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Italy

Aims

To analyze the prevalence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in different areas of Italy by age, interval since diagnosis and disease stage at diagnosis, and to estimate the prevalence of CRC. These data provide estimates of patient demand on health resources.

Patients and Methods

Eleven Italian cancer registries (CRs) provided data on 33,740 patients observed for up to 15 years. For the 1,829 cases from the specialized colorectal cancer registry of Modena we analyzed prevalence by Dukes’ stage and family history. PREVAL software produced observed prevalence figures by time from diagnosis; to determine the total prevalence, correction factors were applied to the observed data.

Results

At the end of 1992, five-year CRC prevalence was high (close to 200 per 100,000) in Genova, Parma, Romagna and Firenze, and low (around 75 per 100,000) in the southern areas of Latina and Ragusa. For all CRs, 86 patients per 100,000 population were alive up to 2 years from diagnosis and 77 per 100,000 between 2 and 5 years from diagnosis. The 5-year prevalence of patients diagnosed with Dukes’ B or C (high risk of recurrence and requiring postoperative surveillance) was 152 per 100,000; that of Dukes’ A patients 36 per 100,000 (considered cured after surgery and not requiring intensive follow-up or care); that of unstaged patients plus those with distant metastasis at diagnosis was 28 per 100,000 at 5 years (requiring palliative care but not follow-up). The 12-year prevalence of HNPCC was 23 per 100,000, or about 7% of the total; for such patients knowledge of the long-term prevalence is important because they are diagnosed young and are at high risk of multiple tumor development.

Conclusions

70% of the prevalent patients diagnosed within 5 years prior to the prevalence date were likely to require care for cancer recurrence, while 13% of the prevalent cases required care for distant metastases.

The Role of Cancer Registration for Programming Health Services

The Italian National Health Plan 1998-2000 indicates quantitative and qualitative goals in the fight against cancer. This approach stresses the need of reliable and updated descriptive data to evaluate, at a population level, the burden of neoplastic disease, the results of primary and secondary preventive actions, and the efforts towards a more equal distribution of diagnostic and therapeutic services.

The aims of this paper is to evaluate the use of descriptive data to quantify the burden of neoplastic disease, using the data provided by the network of Italian cancer registries (the most reliable source of information on neoplastic disease in Italy). Crude rates are the most adequate for describing the “burden” of cancer patients who are expected in a certain period and will need specific diagnostic or therapeutic activities. Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates provide information on different phenomena (i.e., patients requiring diagnostic and therapeutic activities related with the first definition and treatment of the disease; patients requiring periodic follow-up or treatment of disease relapse; need palliative care). The use of these measures combined is highly informative in relation with the different objectives of health planners (i.e., patients requiring diagnostic and therapeutic activities related with the first definition and treatment of the disease; patients requiring periodic follow-up or treatment of disease relapse; need palliative care).

The Prevalence of Cancer: A Review of the Available Data

Aims and Background

Cancer prevalence in a population, defined as the proportion – or the number – of people who were diagnosed with a cancer during their lives and are still alive at a given date, is a crucial indicator for heath care planning and resource allocation. Long-term population-based cancer registries (CR) are the appropriate tools to produce prevalence figures, which, however, are scarcely available. This paper contains a review up to 1999 of the published data world-wide (reports and articles) on cancer prevalence: including measured and estimated figures.

Materials and Methods

Data on cancer prevalence from CRs are available for the Nordic countries, Connecticut, and Italy. In addition, electronic data are available for the European Union (EU). Data for the Nordic countries were first published in the mid-seventies, reporting the prevalence for 1970. The first data from Connecticut were available 10 years later. Estimates for all EU countries were published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 1997. In Italy, observed and estimated data on the prevalence of respiratory and digestive tract cancer and breast cancer have been published during the nineties, followed by a systematic analysis for all cancers in 1999. By using information obtained from CRs, cancer prevalence data were calculated directly (observed prevalence) by means of incidence and follow-up information on individual cancer patients, or indirectly (estimated prevalence) by means of mathematical models, which generally use epidemiological information at the aggregate level.

Results

Cancer prevalence for all cancers combined (proportions per 100,000 inhabitants) showed values of less than 700 in males and less than 800 in females in 1970 (Finland) to over 2,300 in males and over 3,000 in females in 1992 (Italian registries). With few exceptions, in each country and period considered the cancer sites contributing most to cancer prevalence are lung, colon-rectum, prostate and bladder in males, colon-rectum, breast, uterus (both cervix and corpus) and ovary in females. At present, comparison of measurements from different areas is difficult because there exists no standardized mode of presentation.

Conclusions

In spite of their being potentially useful for health care planning, prevalence data have been produced inconsistently and late by cancer registries, at least in comparison with the systematic availability of incidence and survival statistics. The available data can be compared only to a limited extent due to differences in completeness, in the choice of indicators, in the standard populations, and in the frequency of publication. It would be desirable that in the future data will be produced systematically, with a higher level of standardization compared to the past, and, most importantly, on the same geographic and administrative scale as health-care decision-making.

An Estimate of Prostate Cancer Prevalence in Italy

Estimates of the total number of men with a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer in Italy range from 55,000 to 135,000. This wide range of variation is largely due to uncertainties on the number of protein-specific antigen-detected, asymptomatic cases. The number of clinically detected cases, including cases with advanced disease, is less subject to uncertainty, with reasonable estimates ranging from 45,000 to 60,000.

Cancer Prevalence Estimates in Italy from 1970 to 2010

Aims and background

The growing number of cancer survivors in Italy is expected to continue to increase as a consequence of population aging and survival improvements, but few estimates are currently available, particularly on the national and regional scale. The purpose of this work is to present detailed and updated prevalence estimates in Italy over the period 1970-2010 by cancer site (all cancers combined, stomach, colon and rectum, lung, breast and prostate) and gender.

Methods

Prevalence was derived with the MIAMOD statistical method, using cancer-specific mortality and relative survival as input data. Survival data from the Italian cancer registries were modeled to derive a national estimate for each cancer site and sex. To estimate prevalence trends, survival was assumed to improve in the future with the same rate observed in the period 1978-1994. A double scenario for survival - increasing or stationary - was considered to decompose the prevalence growth from 1995 to 2005 by its determinants: demographic changes, incidence and survival dynamics. The prevalence estimates were also decomposed by disease duration (2, 5 and 10 years) and by age (0-44, 45-59, 60-74 and 75-99).

Results

The proportion of cancer survivors in 2010 is expected to be about 4% in women and 3% in men, about twice the values attained in 1990. The highest dynamics was observed for prostate cancer, with a three-fold increase just in the 1995-2005 period (from 212 to 623 per 100,000), whereas in absolute terms breast cancer presented the highest levels (1,700 per 100,000 in 2010). The overall number of cancer prevalent cases is expected to rise by about 48% in the decennium 1995-2005 (from 1,152,000 to 1,709,000), and this growth is mainly attributable to incidence dynamics (+21%), then to survival improvements (+14%) and population aging (13%). In 2005, the 2-year prevalent cases were estimated to be 20% of all cancer survivors, 21% between 2 and 5 years from the diagnosis, 23% between 5 and 10 years, with 36% surviving for more than 10 years. Prevalence proportion was very high in the elderly (12.6% for 75-84 years and 8% for 60-74 years).

Conclusions

Updated prevalence data with appropriate coverage of the national territory are essential to define priorities in health care management and to develop cancer control programs. Prevalence by disease duration and by age should be the basis for planning research on the quality of life of cancer survivors, as long as cancer continues to become an even more chronic disease.

Down-regulation of microRNA-224 -inhibites growth and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition phenotype -via modulating SUFU expression in bladder cancer cells

Aberrant expression of miR-224 is usually found in cancer studies; however, the role of miR-224 has seldom been reported in bladder cancer (BC). We explored miR-224's function and the underlying mechanism in BC. It was found that miR-224 expression was significantly up-regulated in BC tissues and cell lines. Knockdown of miR-224 decreased BC cell growth and invasion both in vitro and in vivo. We identified the SUFU protein as a downstream target of miR-224 by using luciferase and western blot assays. We proposed that miR-224 promoted BC cell growth and invasion via sustaining the activity of Hedgehog pathway, which was negatively regulated by SUFU. Taken together, our study demonstrated that miR-224 may function as an onco-miR in BC and suggested that miR-224 may be a potential therapeutic target for BC patients.

Age and stage specific prevalence estimate of cancer from population based Cancer Registry using inhomogeneous Poisson process

A multi stage model is described for estimating the age and two stage specific prevalence of cancer. The disease evolution is considered as an inhomogeneous Poisson process in the Lexis diagram. Prevalences are estimated from the basic epidemiological measures (stage specific incidences and survivals). A piecewise constant hazard model is used to estimate the transition rates constructing a finite partition of age and, where it is the case, of duration. Moreover, variance calculations are described. An application to breast cancer in the Hérault (France) population is presented.

Cancer prevalence in the city of Naples: Contribution of the GP database analyses to the cancer registries network

The Italian cancer registries network has not been sufficiently developed in the Southern regions. General practitioners (GPs) are knowledgeable about the prevalence, incidence and mortality for different types of cancer in their patient populations. The aim of this pilot study was to verify the feasibility and reliability of the characterization of cancer populations using GP databases in order to evaluate the impact of cancer in the general population of Naples. The characteristics of the cases studied have been collected by interview or electronic health record and recorded on paper or magnetic supports, appropriately conforming to the current privacy law. Databases are centralized, stored and codified on electronic data-sheets and periodically elaborated by the 'Consorzio Nazionale delle Cooperative Mediche' and 'Federico II' University. The present study was initiated on September 15, 2004. The analysed geographical area included the suburbs of 'Stella' and 'San Carlo all'Arena', situated in the historical center of Naples and corresponding to Health Care District 29 of the local health service. The analysis included 16,927 men and women (age range, 6-97 years) from the outpatient offices of 12 GPs who agreed to participate in the study. Results showed that the analysed population represents 16.3% of the general population residing in the area under study. We identified 342 (2%) patients with cancer, 143 (0.8%) of whom were men and 199 (1.2%) women (M/F ratio of 0.7). Of the 342 patients, 10 (5 men and 5 women) had a double cancer; thus, a total of 352 malignancies was characterized. Cancer prevalence was 2,020/100,000 inhabitants. This estimate is lower compared to the national prevalence (2,683/100,000 inhabitants) but higher compared to that in other southern Italian areas. Results, stratified by International Classification of Disease, ninth revision (ICD-IX), based on factors including gender and age, demonstrated that breast cancer, urogenital tumours and colorectal cancer are the most frequently occurring types of cancer identified among the inhabitants of Naples. Cancer prevalence in the historical center of Naples is in concordance with national estimates and projections and National Cancer Registries may be easily and accurately supported by GP medical databases.

Cancer prevalence in Italy: an analysis of geographic variability

PURPOSE

Statistics on cancer prevalence are scanty. The objectives of this study were to describe the cancer prevalence in Italy and to explore determinants of geographic heterogeneity.

METHODS

The study included data from 23 population-based cancer registries, including one-third of the Italian population. Five-year cancer prevalence was observed, and complete prevalence (i.e., all patients living after a cancer diagnosis) was estimated through sex-, age-, cancer site-, and observation period length-specific completeness indices by means of regression models.

RESULTS

In 2006, 3.8 % of men and 4.6 % of women in Italy were alive after a cancer diagnosis, with a 5-year prevalence of 1.9 % and 1.7 % in men and women, respectively. A relevant geographic variability emerged for all major cancer sites. When compared to national pooled estimates, crude cancer prevalence proportions were 10 % higher in the north and 30 % lower in the south of Italy. However, these variations were consistently reduced after age adjustment and, in both sexes, largely overlapped those of incidence rates, with correlations >0.90 between variations of prevalence and incidence for all cancer sites and areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Magnitude of the cancer prevalence and the geographic heterogeneity herein outlined in Italy will help in meeting the needs of specific population of survivor patients.

CHOP 5'UTR-c.279T>C and +nt30C>T variants are not associated with overweight condition or with tumors/cancer in Italians - a case-control study

Background

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with obesity and has been shown recently to be associated with tumors/cancer. HNF1-beta and JAZF1 genes are associated with T2D and prostate cancer. We have previously shown that CHOP 5'UTR-c.279T>C and +nt30C>T haplotype variants contribute to T2D. CHOP deficiency causes obesity in mice, thus CHOP gene variants may contribute to human obesity. Furthermore, CHOP mediates apoptosis and is implicated in cancer pathogenesis. Hence, we aimed at identifying any potential association of CHOP 5'UTR-c.279T>C and +nt30C>T genotypes and corresponding haplotypes with overweight condition/pre-obesity and tumors/cancer in an Italian dataset.

Methods

We recruited from Italy 45 overweight subjects (body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25) and 44 control subjects (BMI < 25) as well as 54 cases with at least one cancer or at least one tumor and 43 control subjects without tumors/cancer from the general population. We excluded allelic departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in cases and control subjects, separately.

Results

We assessed the power to detect risk odds ratios by association tests in our datasets. We tested the hypothesis of association of CHOP 5'UTR-c.279T>C and +nt30C>T genotypes and haplotypes with tumors/cancer and, separately, with overweight condition. Both associations were not significant.

Conclusion

From our study, we may conclude that CHOP 5'UTR-c.279T>C and +nt30C>T genotypes and corresponding haplotypes are not associated with tumors/cancer and pre-obesity. However, more studies are warranted to establish the role of CHOP variants in tumor/cancer predisposition and in overweight condition.

CDK4 IVS4-nt40 AA genotype and obesity-associated tumors/cancer in Italians - a case-control study

Background

Cell cycle checkpoint regulation is crucial for prevention of tumor in mammalian cells. Cyclin-dependant kinase 4 (CDK4) is important in cell cycle regulation, as it controls the G1-S phase of the cell cycle. CDK4 has potential mitogenic properties through phosphorylation of target proteins. We aimed at identifying a role of CDK4 IVS4-nt40 G→A gene variant in benign and/or malignant tumors and in obesity-associated benign and/or malignant tumors in an Italian adult subject dataset.

Methods

We recruited 263 unrelated Italian subjects: 106 subjects had at least one benign tumor and 46 subjects had at least one malignant tumor, while 116 subjects had at least two tumors and/or cancers. We collected BMI data for 90% of them: 186 subjects had a BMI≥30 Kg/m² and 52 subjects had a BMI ≥ 30 Kg/m². We performed statistical power calculations in our datasets. DNA samples were directly sequenced with specific primers for the CDK4 IVS4-nt40 G→A variant. Genotype association tests with disease were performed.

Results

In our study, no significant association of the CDK4 IVS4-nt40 AA genotype with cancer and/or tumors/cancer are/is detected. However, the CDK4 IVS4-nt40 AA genotype is significantly associated with cancer and tumors/cancer in obese patients.

Conclusion

This finding is interesting since obesity is a risk factor for tumors and cancer. This study should prompt further work aiming at establishing the role of CDK4 in contributing to tumor/cancer genetic risk predisposition, as well as its role as a potentially effective therapeutic target gene for obesity-associated tumor/cancer management.

Renal cancer

In Europe, renal cancer (that is neoplasia of the kidney, renal pelvis or ureter (ICD-9 189 and ICD-10 C64-C66)) ranks as the seventh most common malignancy in men amongst whom there are 29,600 new cases each year (3.5% of all cancers). Tobacco, obesity and a diet poor in vegetables are all acknowledged risk factors, along with specific occupational and environmental factors. A familial history of renal carcinoma is also likely to increase the risk. Renal carcinoma may remain clinically occult for most of its course. The classic presentation of pain, haematuria, and flank mass occurs in only 9% of patients and is often indicative of advanced disease. Approximately 30% of patients with renal carcinoma present with metastatic disease, 25% with locally advanced renal carcinoma and 45% with localized disease. Metastases are typically found in the lung, soft tissue, bone, liver, cutaneous sites, and central nervous system. The most important staging technique is a computed tomography (CT) scan of the whole abdomen. Survival rates are more favourable for patients with tumours confined to the kidney. Five-year survival for patients with metastatic renal carcinoma is comprised between 0 and 20%. Radical nephrectomy is the standard intervention for renal cancer. Intrinsic resistance to chemotherapy has long been a hallmark of renal carcinoma. Limited options are available for the systemic therapy, and no chemotherapeutic regimen is accepted as a standard of care. Biologic agents represent the major effective therapies for widespread metastatic renal cancer. An antiangiogenic strategy, the neutralization of VEGF, can slow the growth rate of advanced cancer.

Germ cell tumours of the testis

Cancer of the testis is a relatively rare disease, accounting for about 1% of all cancers in men. Cryptorchidism is the only confirmed risk factor for testicular germ cell tumour. The majority of GCT are clinically detectable at initial presentation. Any nodular, hard, or fixed area discovered in the testis, must be considered neoplastic until proved otherwise. The appropriate surgical procedure to make the diagnosis is a radical orchidectomy through an inguinal incision. Many GCT produce tumoural markers (AFP, HCG, LDH), who are useful in the diagnosis and staging of disease; to monitor the therapeutic response and to detect tumour recurrence. In 1997 a prognostic factor-based classification for the metastatic germ cell tumours was developed by the IGCCCG: good, intermediate and poor prognosis, with 5-year survival of 91, 79 and 48%, respectively. GCT of the testis is a highly table, often curable, cancer. Germ cell testicular cancers are divided into seminoma and non-seminoma types for treatment planning because seminomatous testicular cancers are more sensitive to radiotherapy. Seminoma (all stages combined) has a cure rate of greater than 90%. For patients with low-stage disease, the cure approaches 100%. For patients with non-seminoma tumours, the cure rate is >95% in stages I and II; it is approximately 70% with standard chemotherapy and resection of residual disease, if necessary, in stages III and IV. Minimum guidelines for clinical, biochemical, and radiological follow-up have been reported by ESMO in 2001.

Cancer of the penis

Cancer of the penis is rare in Europe, accounting for less than 0.5% of all cancers. Phimosis and poor hygiene are strong risk factors whereas neonatal circumcision is a contributing factor in the prevention of this disease. More than 95% of penile carcinomas are squamous cell carcinomas. Early disease (stage I-II) is curable in most patients, who can be treated by conventional penile amputation or, in selected cases, by organ preserving techniques, including Moh's micrographic surgery, laser ablation or radiation therapy (external-beam, brachytherapy). For more advanced primary tumours, penile amputation is required. Survival of patients with penile cancer is strongly related to the presence and extent of nodal metastases. Bilateral inguinal lymphadenectomy is recommended for palpable lymph nodes that persist 3 or more weeks after removal of the primary tumour and a course of antibiotic therapy. In patients with proven inguinal lymph node metastases, bilateral ileoinguinal dissection should be performed. When the nodes are clinically negative, "prophylactic" inguinal lymphadenectomy may be a reasonable approach in patients with invasive tumours (T2 or greater), high grade tumours, or tumours exhibiting vascular invasion. The role of chemotherapy, as adjuvant and neoadjuvant or primary treatment in metastatic disease, needs to be further explored in prospective clinical trials.

Practice of opportunistic prostate-specific antigen screening in Italy: data from the Health Search database

The effectiveness of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for opportunistic screening of prostate cancer is not yet well established, although this practice seems to be widely accepted. To estimate the opportunistic use of PSA by general practitioners (GPs) in Italy, we conducted a survey by querying the Health Search (HS) database, which collects clinical records from a representative sample of the Italian population. Clinical computerized data from 320 GPs and 221,557 male patients were analysed. Among total requests for PSA, 3% were linked to prostate cancer, 18% to a urological disease or symptom and 79% were not linked to any urological condition (opportunistic screening). Opportunistic screening was used for 31.4% of subjects over 50 with a significant (P<0.0001) difference between geographical areas (36.4% north, 33.5% central regions, 22.9% south and isles). This distribution was very similar to prostate cancer prevalence as it resulted from the HS data. PSA testing practice showed an increase over the years (12.7% of men over 50 in 2000, 14.3% in 2001 and 15.9% in 2002). In conclusion, the practice of opportunistic screening of prostate cancer seems to be extensively adopted by Italian GPs and is becoming more and more popular, although to date it is not supported by strong scientific evidence.

Cancer of pancreas

Cancer of the pancreas is the tenth most frequent cancer in Europe, accounting for some 3% of cancer in both sex. Smoking has been clearly established as a major risk factor affecting the carcinogenesis of pancreatic carcinoma. Diet has also been associated with pancreatic cancer, although no conclusive data are yet available. Different genetic alterations have been observed in pancreatic neoplasms. Typical symptoms of pancreatic cancer are: jaundice, abdominal pain and weight loss. The prognosis of pancreatic carcinoma depends mainly on radical surgery and the presence of negative resection margins, as well as on the biological tumour stage, which also influences the treatment strategy. The treatment of pancreatic cancer is undertaken with two aims. Radical surgery is indicated for patients with early stage of disease, mainly stage I and partially II. In all other cases, the aim of treatment is the palliation of different very distressing symptoms related to this neoplasm.

Cancer of the larynx

In Europe, laryngeal cancer accounts for only 2-5% of all cancers, the incidence being much higher among males than among females. Smoke and alcohol represent the major behavioural risk factors. Several carcinogens, occupations and vitamin deficiencies have been associated with laryngeal cancer. A genetic susceptibility to environmental risk factors and carcinogens is recognized. Hoarseness is the main symptom for which patients call for medical consultation. Mucosa is the most common histologic site of the primary lesions considered in the present chapter. Nodal involvement, the site and volume of the primary tumour, and some genes expression represent the major prognostic factors. A high death rate for not cancer-related events is to be pointed out. The loco-regional extent of the disease determines the success of cure. Surgery and radiotherapy represent the main therapeutic options. The choice between these two procedures is often controversial.

Cancer prevalence in Central Europe: the EUROPREVAL Study

BACKGROUND

Information on cancer prevalence is either absent or largely unavailable for central European countries.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Austria, Germany, The Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Switzerland cover a population of 13 million inhabitants. Cancer registries in these countries supplied incidence and survival data for 465 000 cases of cancer. The prevalence of stomach, colon, rectum, lung, breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri and prostate cancer, as well as skin melanoma, Hodgkin's disease, leukaemia and all malignant neoplasms combined was estimated for the end of 1992.

RESULTS

A large heterogeneity was observed within central European countries. For all cancers combined, estimates ranged from 730 per 100 000 in Poland (men) to 3350 per 100 000 in Germany (women). Overall cancer prevalence was the highest in Germany and Switzerland, and the lowest in Poland and Slovenia. In Slovakia, prevalence was higher than average for men and lower than average for women. This was observed for almost all ages. As shown by incidence data, breast cancer was the most frequent malignancy among women in all countries. Among men, prostate cancer was the leading malignancy in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, and lung cancer was the major cancer in Slovenia, Slovakia and Poland. The Netherlands had a high prevalence of both prostate and lung cancer. Time-related magnitude of prevalence within each country and the variability of such proportions across the countries has been estimated and cancer prevalence is given by time since diagnosis (1 year, 1-5 years, 5-10 years, >10 years) for each site. The weight of 1-year prevalence (248 per 100 000 among men and 253 per 100 000 among women) was <15% of total prevalence. Prevalent cases between 1 and 5 years since diagnosis represented between 22% and 34% of the total prevalence. Prevalent cases diagnosed from 5 to 10 years before (335 per 100 000 for men and 505 per 100 000 for women) represented between 17% and 23% of prevalent cancers. Finally, long-term cancer prevalence (diagnosed >10 years before), reflecting long-term survival, and number of people considered as cured from cancer were 490 per 100 000 for men and 1028 per 100 000 for women, with a range between 26% (The Netherlands, men) and 50% (Slovakia, women).

CONCLUSION

It is clear from observing countries in Central Europe, that high cancer prevalence is associated with well-developed economies. This burden of cancer could be interpreted as a paradoxical effect of better treatments and thereby survival. It could also be taken as a sign for not being satisfied with the advances in treating patients diagnosed with cancer, and for supporting more primary prevention.

[Prevalence of cancer in the Guadalajara health area]

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the prevalence of cancerand its distribution in adults.

DESIGN

Descriptive study of point prevalence through research into primary and secondary sources.

SETTING

Primary care, Guadalajara Health Region. 133 539 people over 14 years old.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients previously diagnosed with cancer, who had a health card in the health area in June 1999.

MEASUREMENTS

Demographic and diagnostic details (location according to CIE-9, date and diagnostic method).

DATA SOURCES

primary care clinical records, cancer morbidity records and attendance orders. Overall crude and adjusted rates, in function of sex and age group, and specific to locations, were calculated. They were compared with data from other studies and data calculated for Spain on the basis of WHO information.

RESULTS

2717 tumours (2595 patients). Mean age, 68.2 (95% CI, 67.6-68.7); diagnostic age, 62.8 (95% CI, 62.1-63.5), in both cases higher in men (P<.01). Most common tumours: prostate, bladder, colon and lung (men); breast, colon, endometrium and ovaries (women). Crude prevalence: men, 2303.8/100 000; women, 1763.8. Adjusted to world population: 1394.2 and 1227.4/100 000, respectively (prevalence ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03-1.25). Truncated rate higher in women than in men (1638/100 000 against 1308). Five-year period with highest prevalence: 75-79 years old in men (8763.5/100 000) and 80-84 in women (4558.7/100 000).

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer prevalence in adults is slightly above 2%. Once adjusted for age, values are similar to other studies and as expected for our country. The most common tumours are in the digestive apparatus, breast and the genito-urinary system. The man/woman proportion is higher than that described in other studies.

Estimation and projections of cancer prevalence from cancer registry data

A method, PIAMOD (Prevalence, Incidence, Analysis MODel), which allows the estimation and projection of cancer prevalence patterns by using cancer registry incidence and survival data is presented. As a first step the method involves the fit of incidence data by an age, period and cohort model to derive incidence projections. Prevalence is then estimated from modelled incidence and survival estimates. Cancer mortality is derived as a third step from modelled incidence, prevalence and survival. An application to female breast cancer is given for the Connecticut State by using data from the Connecticut Tumor Registry (CTR), 1973-1993. The age, period and cohort model fitted incidence quite well and allowed us to derive long-term projections up to 2030. Patients' survival was also projected to future years according to a scenario approach based on two extreme hypotheses: steady, that is, no more improvements after 1993 (conservative), and continuously improving at the same rate as during the observation period. Age-standardized estimated incidence shows a changing trend around the year 2005, when it starts decreasing. Age-standardized prevalence is expected to increase and change trend at a later date. Breast cancer mortality is projected as decreasing, as the combined result of no further increase in incidence and improving cancer patients' survival. An easy-to-use PIAMOD software package, on which work is in progress, will be made available to individual cancer registries and/or health planning institutions or authorities once it is developed. The use of the PIAMOD method for cancer registries will allow them to provide results of paramount importance for the whole community involved in the assessment of future disease burden scenarios in an evolving society.

A comparative analysis of cancer prevalence in cancer registry areas of France, Italy and Spain

A comparative analysis of cancer prevalence in France, Spain and Italy is presented as part of the EUROPREVAL project. The three countries are culturally and sociologically relatively homogeneous compared with Europe as a whole. However, in all three countries, the cancer registries (CRs) providing the data for prevalence calculation cover only small fractions of the populations, and have been operating for relatively short periods. This leads to problems of representativity and to prevalence underestimates as surviving cases diagnosed before operation of the CR are not recorded. Partial prevalences obtained directly from CR data were therefore corrected using a completeness index obtained by modelling to provide estimates of the complete prevalence. For CRs operating for only 5 years, only approximately half the prevalence was observed. Thus, due to the rather recent start of most of southern European CRs, the role of correction is very important. The prevalence of all cancers was highest in Italy for women and in France for men, while lowest in Spain. Differences in the age structures of the populations were the major cause of these discrepancies and after age adjustment only the prevalence of stomach cancer remained highest in Italy, although differences in incidence also contributed to the prevalence differences. Survival varied little between the three countries and differences in incidence are more important determinants of prevalence. Prevalence of cancer in the elderly represents an increasing load for the community, particularly for France, Italy and Spain due to the ageing population in these countries. Elderly patients with cancer frequently suffer from problems of co-morbidity and disability factors, thus placing a burden on the local medical system where this proportion is high. Prevalent cases diagnosed 1-5 years before the prevalence date formed approximately one-third of the total prevalence, with higher proportions for melanoma, and prostate cancer in males and breast and colorectal cancer in females, and lower proportions for uterine cancer. This subset of the prevalent population consists of those probably on intensive follow-up, or being treated for cancer recurrence or sequelae to primary therapy.

Estimates of the world-wide prevalence of cancer for 25 sites in the adult population

In health services planning, in addition to the basic measures of disease occurrence incidence and mortality, other indexes expressing the demand of care are also required to develop strategies for service provision. One of these is prevalence of the disease, which measures the absolute number, and relative proportion in the population, of individuals affected by the disease and that require some form of medical attention. For most cancer sites, cases surviving 5 years from diagnosis experience thereafter the same survival as the general population, so most of the workload is therefore due to medical acts within these first 5 years. This article reports world-wide estimates of 1-, 2-3- and 4-5-year point prevalence in 1990 in the population aged 15 years or over, and hence describes the number of cancer cases diagnosed between 1986 and 1990 who were still alive at the end of 1990. These estimates of prevalence at 1, 2-3 and 4-5 years are applicable to the evaluation of initial treatment, clinical follow-up and point of cure, respectively, for the majority of cancers. We describe the computational procedure and data sources utilised to obtain these figures and compare them with data published by 2 cancer registries. The highest prevalence of cancer is in North America with 1.5% of the population affected and diagnosed in the previous 5 years (about 0.5% of the population in years 4-5 and 2-3 of follow-up and 0.4% within the first year of diagnosis). This corresponds to over 3.2 million individuals. Western Europe and Australia and New Zealand show very similar percentages with 1.2% and 1.1% of the population affected (about 3.9 and 0.2 million cases respectively). Japan and Eastern Europe form the next batch with 1.0% and 0.7%, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (overall prevalence of 0.4%), and all remaining regions are around 0.2%. Cancer prevalence in developed countries is very similar in men and women, 1.1% of the sex-specific population, while in developing countries the prevalence is some 25% greater in women than men, reflecting a preponderance of cancer sites with poor survival such as liver, oesophagus and stomach in males. The magnitude of disease incidence is the primary determinant of crude prevalence of cases diagnosed within 1 year so that differences by region mainly reflect variation in risk. In the long-term period however different demographic patterns with long-life expectancy in high-income countries determine a higher prevalence in these areas even for relatively uncommon cancer sites such as the cervix.

Bladder cancer

Bladder cancer is the second most frequent tumour of the urogenital tract. Tobacco smoke has been shown to increase the risk of bladder cancer two- to fivefold as well as the exposure to metabolites of aniline dyes and other aromatic amines. Seventy-five per cent of bladder cancers are superficial at initial presentation, limited to the mucosa, submucosa, or lamina propria. Recurrence rates after initial treatment are 50-80%, with progression to muscle-invading tumour in 10-25%. In muscle-invading bladder cancers, there is a 50% risk of distant metastases. Surgery is the mainstay of standard treatment both in the form of transurethral endoscopic resection, mainly for superficial disease, and in the form of open ablative surgery with urinary diversion for muscle invasive disease. Endovesical administration of BCG has been employed after endoscopic resection as the most effective agent for both prophylaxis of disease recurrence and progression from superficial to invasive disease. The accepted treatment for muscle infiltrative disease is radical cystectomy. Response rates to combination chemotherapy regimens of up to 70% in patients with advanced metastatic disease have led to an investigation of its use for locally invasive disease in combination with conventional modalities of treatment.

Colorectal cancer prevalence in France

Cancer prevalence is a crucial indicator that allows the magnitude of the problem of colorectal cancer to be monitored. Population-based cancer registries with long-standing activity are the most appropriate tools for providing prevalence data. All colorectal cases registered between 1976 and 1995 in the Côte d'Or Cancer Registry have been considered in this study. Total prevalence (20 years) was the number of patients with a previously diagnosed colorectal cancer, alive on 31 December 1995. Cumulative recurrence rates up to 5 years after diagnosis were calculated and applied to the number of prevalent cases to estimate the number of recurrences by one-year intervals up to 5 years. The overall age-standardized prevalence rate was 170.8/100000, which yielded an estimated 185857 French people alive with a history of colorectal cancer. The 5-year prevalence rates were 149.4/100000, which represented 46.4% of prevalent cases. Five-year prevalence rates regularly increased with periods of diagnosis. These results represent useful indicators for monitoring the colorectal cancer problem and for health care planning.

The Prevalence of Tumors of the Breast and Female Genital Tract in Italy

Data from 10 Italian population-based cancer registries were used to estimate the prevalence of female tumors of the breast and genital tract. The total prevalence, expressed in number per 100,000, was highest for breast cancer (1,117), followed by cancer of the corpus (264) and cervix uteri (146), ovary (110), and vagina and vulva (23). For all tumors the prevalence increased with age at diagnosis.

The cancer prevalence was divided into intervals from diagnosis, expressing different health needs in terms of therapy and intensity of clinical follow-up. For all tumors considered, 1-year prevalence was higher than 1-2-year prevalence, reflecting a high death risk due to perioperative mortality and to the proportion of patients diagnosed at advanced stages. The prevalence decreased in the following intervals considered.

Noticeable geographic variability was observed in the prevalence across Italy, with higher proportions being registered in the northern-central regions than in the South. The two extreme 0-5-year prevalence figures (per 100,000) were: for breast cancer 568 (Genova) and 259 (Ragusa); for corpus uteri cancer 94 (Romagna) and 21 (Latina); for cervix uteri cancer 63 (Romagna) and 26 (Latina); for ovarian cancer 49 (Parma) and 21 (Latina); for cancer of the vagina and vulva 17 (Genova) and 5 (Ragusa). This variability depends mainly on incidence and on the proportion of elderly in the general population.

From 1987 to 1992 there was an increase in the prevalence of tumors of the breast, ovary and vagina and vulva, especially in the elderly. The prevalence of corpus uteri cancer decreased slightly in the elderly only, whereas that of cervix uteri cancer decreased at all ages.