Living longer but in poor health: healthcare system responses to ageing populations in industrialised countries based on the Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine changes in life expectancy (LE), health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), unhealthy years of life, and disease burden of older people in industrialised countries and associations with health systems.

METHODS

We used estimates of LE and HALE, unhealthy years of life, years of life loss (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) for individuals aged 70 years and over in 33 industrialised countries from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. A linear regression analysis was conducted to examine the association of health outcomes with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) index.

RESULTS

LE and HALE increased with improved HAQ index from 1990 to 2019. However, the number of unhealthy years of life increased. An increased HAQ index was associated with decreases in YLL. However, changes in YLD were relatively small and were not correlated with HAQ index.

CONCLUSIONS

The healthcare system needs to more address the increased morbidity burden among older people. It should be designed to handle to healthcare needs of the ageing population.

Estimating the Sex Gap in Depression-Free Life Expectancy Among Widowed Americans Aged 50 and Older: An Application Using the Interpolated Markov Chain Approach

OBJECTIVES

Using Interpolated Markov Chain software, we compare the length of life with and without depression among married individuals and widowers, and the related sex differences.

METHODS

We applied a multi-state life table approach to estimate depression-free life expectancy among recent cohorts of older married and widowed women and men in the United States, using data from the Health and Retirement Study over a 7-year period (2012-2018).

RESULTS

The study revealed that the difference in life expectancy between sexes widens in the context of widowhood. At age 50, the sex gap in depression-free life expectancy is 0.8 years among married people, whereas the gap almost doubles to 1.7 years among widowed people.

DISCUSSION

By quantifying disparities in the duration of life affected by depression between married and widowed women and men, policymakers could properly allocate resources specifically to address the mental health needs of these groups.

Shifts in Chronic Disease Patterns Among Spanish Older Adults With Multimorbidity Between 2006 and 2017

Objectives: To investigate changes in multimorbidity patterns among Spanish older adults. Methods: Data come from the Spanish National Health Survey (ENSE) for individuals aged 60-89 years (2006: n = 9,758; 2017: n = 8,535). Prevalence rates and relative risks of 20 chronic conditions are estimated for the multimorbidity (3+ chronic conditions) sample, along with observed-to-expected prevalence of three-way disease combinations. Principal component and cluster analyses identify multimorbidity patterns and track temporal changes. Results: Overall, multimorbidity remained stable [2006: 59.6% (95% CI: 58.7%-60.6%); 2017: 60.3% (CI: 59.3%-61.3%)], except at older ages. Women exhibited higher multimorbidity prevalence, but sex differences declined by five percentage points. Low-high education differences widened by three percentage points. In 2017 most individuals living with multimorbidity experienced hypertension (63.4%), osteoarthrosis (62.4%) and chronic back pain (55.9%). These chronic conditions also dominate the most common triadic combinations. Multimorbid men also saw increases in cholesterol and diabetes. Conclusion: Multimorbidity trends and the most common combination of diseases can help plan healthcare for an ageing population. Sex and socioeconomic differences pose additional public health challenges as women and deprived populations tend to have more health complexities.

Predictors of long-term care use - informal home care recipients versus private and public facilities residents in Poland

BACKGROUND

The population aging, together with the shrinking caring potential of families, is a major challenge for social policy in the coming years. The aim of the study is to identify the factors that determine not only the use of long-term care (LTC) but also the selection of individual types of such care in Poland.

METHODS

Using unique data collected from inpatient LTC facilities in Poland and the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) database, we estimate logistic regressions explaining the choice of LTC solution.

RESULTS

Our results suggest that social inequalities play a role in choosing the type of LTC. Better educated people choose private institutions, while people without support network use more often social residential homes. The impact of multimorbidity on choosing different types of inpatient facilities is limited, thus the number of ADL limitations remains a better indicator of long term care utilization.

CONCLUSIONS

The study confirms that social inequalities influence decisions about the choice of LTC. However, multi-morbidity is a predictor of using LTC to a limited extent. The differences in LTC selection determinants between women and men are noticeable.

Descriptive and predictive analysis identify centenarians' characteristics from the Basque population

Background

Centenarians exhibit extreme longevity and have been postulated, by some researchers, as a model for healthy aging. The identification of the characteristics of centenarians might be useful to understand the process of human aging.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we took advantage of demographic, clinical, biological, and functional data of deceased individuals between 2014 and 2020 in Guipúzcoa (Basque Country, Spain) taken from the Basque Health Service electronic health records data lake. Fifty characteristics derived from demographic, clinical, pharmaceutical, biological, and functional data were studied in the descriptive analysis and compared through differences in means tests. Twenty-seven of them were used to build machine learning models in the predictive analysis and their relevance for classifying centenarians was assessed.

Results

Most centenarians were women and lived in nursing homes. Importantly, they developed fewer diseases, took fewer drugs, and required fewer medical attendances. They also showed better biological profiles, exhibiting lower levels of glucose, hemoglobin, glycosylated hemoglobin, and triglycerides in blood analysis compared with non-centenarians. In addition, machine learning analyses revealed the main characteristics of the profiles associated with centenarians' status as being women, having fewer consultations, having fewer diagnoses of neoplasms, and having lower levels of hemoglobin.

Conclusions

Our results revealed the main characteristics linked to centenarians in the Basque Country using Computational Biology programs. These results expand the knowledge on the characterization of the centenarian population and hence of human longevity.

Multivariate analysis of independent determinants of ADL/IADL and quality of life in the elderly

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated the determinants of disability and quality of life in elderly people who participated at the multi-centred RubiN project (Regional ununterbrochen betreut im Netz) in Germany.

METHODS

Baseline data of the subjects aged 70 years and older of the RubiN project were used and only subjects with complete data sets were considered for the ensuing analysis (complete case analysis (CCA)). Disability was examined using the concepts of ADL (activities of daily living) and IADL (instrumental activities of daily living). Subjects exhibiting one or more deficiencies in ADL respectively IADL were considered as ADL respectively IADL disabled. Quality of life was assessed using the WHOQOL-BREF and the WHOQOL-OLD. Applying multivariate analysis, sociodemographic factors, psychosocial characteristics as well as the functional, nutritional and cognitive status were explored as potential determinants of disability and quality of life in the elderly.

RESULTS

One thousand three hundred seventy-five subjects from the RubiN project exhibited data completeness regarding baseline data. ADL and IADL disability were both associated with the respective other construct of disability, sex, a reduced cognitive and functional status as well as domains of the WHOQOL-BREF. Furthermore, ADL disability was related to social participation, while IADL disability was linked to age, education and social support. Sex, ADL and IADL disability, income, social support and social participation as well as the functional status were predictors of the domain 'Physical Health' (WHOQOL-BREF). The facet 'Social Participation' (WHOQOL-OLD) was affected by both ADL and IADL disability, income, social participation, the nutritional and also the functional status.

CONCLUSIONS

Several potential determinants of disability and quality of life were identified and confirmed in this study. Attention should be drawn to prevention schemes as many of these determinants appear to be at least partly modifiable.

Stable Gender Gap and Similar Gender Trend in Chronic Morbidities between 1997-2015 in Adult Canary Population

There is little information about the trend of the gender gap in chronic morbidities and whether the trend of expansion occurs equally in the age and gender groups. The objectives were to examine the consistency and stability of the gender gap in the main self-reported chronic morbidities in the general population, and, likewise, to analyze the trend of major chronic morbidities between 1997 and 2015 in men and women across age groups. The data were extracted from the Canary Health Survey, which uses a probabilistic sampling in the population >16 years of age, for the years 1997 (n = 2167), 2004 (n = 4304), 2009 (n = 4542), and 2015 (n = 4560). The data for the twelve most frequent chronic morbidities were analyzed using logistic regression, estimating the annual change ratio between 1997 and 2015, adjusting for age and educational level. The interaction of age with the period (1997−2015) was examined to analyze the rate of change for each morbidity in the age groups. Musculoskeletal diseases, headaches, anxiety and depression, and peripheral vascular diseases showed a stable gender gap across observed years. High cholesterol and high blood pressure tended to a gap reduction, while heart disease, diabetes, and respiratory disease did not show a significant gender gap along the period. The trend of the main chronic morbidities increased similarly in men and women in all age groups, but significantly in women older than 60 years and in men older than 45 years. Aging explained a substantial part of the trend of increasing prevalence of the main chronic morbidities, but not totally. Factors other than age and education are driving the increase in chronic morbidity in older age groups.

An Evolution-Based Model of Causation for Aging-Related Diseases and Intrinsic Mortality: Explanatory Properties and Implications for Healthy Aging

Aging-related diseases are the most prevalent diseases in advanced countries nowadays, accounting for a substantial proportion of mortality. We describe the explanatory properties of an evolution-based model of causation (EBMC) applicable to aging-related diseases and intrinsic mortality. The EBMC takes the sufficient and component causes model of causation as a starting point and develops it using evolutionary and statistical theories. Genetic component causes are classified as “early-onset” or “late-onset” and environmental component causes as “evolutionarily conserved” or “evolutionarily recent.” Genetic and environmental component causes are considered to occur as random events following time-to-event distributions, and sufficient causes are classified according to whether or not their time-to-event distributions are “molded” by the declining force of natural selection with increasing age. We obtain for each of these two groups different time-to-event distributions for disease incidence or intrinsic mortality asymptotically (i.e., for a large number of sufficient causes). The EBMC provides explanations for observations about aging-related diseases concerning the penetrance of genetic risk variants, the age of onset of monogenic vs. sporadic forms, the meaning of “age as a risk factor,” the relation between frequency and age of onset, and the emergence of diseases associated with the modern Western lifestyle. The EBMC also provides an explanation of the Gompertz mortality model at the fundamental level of genetic causes and involving evolutionary biology. Implications for healthy aging are examined under the scenarios of health promotion and postponed aging. Most importantly from a public health standpoint, the EBMC implies that primary prevention through changes in lifestyle and reduction of environmental exposures is paramount in promoting healthy aging.

Centenarians as models of healthy aging: Example of REST

Centenarians are a group of individuals exhibiting extreme longevity, who are characterized by a remarkable compression of morbidity. Therefore, centenarians have been postulated as a model of healthy aging. Different approaches have been used to decipher the biology and genetics of centenarians in order to identify key anti-aging pathways. The majority of studies have taken advantage of blood samples to perform their analysis. Besides, a recent study in human brain samples deciphered the transcription factor REST (Repressor Element-1 Silencing Transcription Factor) as an important player of extreme longevity and cognitive activity. This study goes from human to animal models and revealed that REST acts as an epigenetic regulator of neuronal homeostasis, to control aging and longevity. The aim of this view point is to summarize recent literature describing genetic and epigenetic factors, as well as molecular pathways associated with centenarians and the biology of aging. We will pay particular attention to the impact of REST in centenarians and longevity.

Financing needs, spending projection, and the future of health in Brazil

In this paper we adopt a growth accounting projection model to estimate and characterize health-financing needs in Brazil as well as to assess the extent to which financing needs may diverge from spending capacity in the future. We estimate an annual increase of 0.71% in the share of projected financing needs relative to GDP, with excess growth rates being 0.74% and 0.69% for the public and private health sectors, respectively. Institutional reforms and public spending restrictions may leverage public-private segmentation in health financing throughout the next decades, thus potentially leading to losses of equity in the system. Our projections contribute to a scant empirical literature on health financing sustainability in low- and middle-income countries and shed light on the role of spending capacity and institutional constraints over the path towards universal health coverage.

Trends in disease-free life expectancy at age 65 in Spain: Diverging patterns by sex, region and disease

Life expectancy in Spain is among the highest in the world. Nevertheless, we do not know if improvements in health conditions at older ages have followed postponements of death. Previous studies in Spain show a stable trend in years lived in ill health in the past. In this paper we investigate changes between 2006, 2012 and 2017 in life expectancy with and without disease at age 65 in Spain and, for the first time, in Spanish regions, which have autonomous powers of health planning, public health and healthcare. Results show that, at the country level, disease-free life expectancy reduced between 2006 and 2017 in Spain. This was explained by an expansion of most diseases except for some cardiovascular and respiratory chronic conditions. However, at the regional level the evolution was different, especially regarding each disease and sex. First, regional differences reduced between 2006 and 2012 but largely widened in 2017, suggesting that not all regions had the same ability to recover after the 2008 financial crisis that caused government cuts to health services. Second, regional analysis also highlighted diverging trends by sex. While men experienced expansion of morbidity in most regions, women experienced a compression in about half of them, ending up with women showing higher disease-free life expectancies than men in 9 out of the 17 regions considered. This study, then, calls attention to the importance of focusing the analysis of health surveillance to more disaggregated levels, more in accordance with the level of health management, as regional trends showed heterogeneity in the prevalence of diseases and different progresses in the relationship between sexes.

Living longer but not necessarily healthier: The joint progress of health and mortality in the working-age population of England

Despite improvements in life expectancy, there is uncertainty on whether the increase in years of healthy life expectancy has kept pace. In this paper we explore whether there is empirical support for the expansion of morbidity hypothesis in the population aged 25-64 living in England. Nationally representative cohorts born between 1945 and 1980 are constructed from repeated annual cross-sections of the Health Survey for England, 1991-2014. Later-born cohorts at a given age have the same or higher prevalence of self-reported bad general health and long-term illness, self-reported high blood pressure (in men), self-reported and objectively-measured diabetes, circulatory illnesses, clinical hypertension, and overweight BMI. We also find that healthy life expectancies (in the sense of absence of each of these problems) at age 25 have increased at a slower pace than life expectancy between 1993 and 2013. Our findings lend support to the expansion of morbidity hypothesis and point to increased future demand for specific healthcare services at younger ages.

Do Centenarians Die Healthier than Younger Elders? A Comparative Epidemiological Study in Spain

This study aims to describe the clinical course, drug use, and health services use characteristics during the last year of life of elders who die being centenarians and to identify key aspects differentiating them from elders who die at an earlier age, with a particular focus on sex differences. We conducted an observational, population-based study in the EpiChron Cohort (Aragón, Spain). The population was stratified by sex and into three age sub-populations (80-89, 90-99, and ≥100 years), and their characteristics were described and compared. Multimorbidity was the rule in our elders, affecting up to 3 in 4 centenarians and 9 in 10 octogenarians and nonagenarians. Polypharmacy was also observed in half of the centenarian population and in most of the younger elders. Risk factors for cardiovascular disease (i.e., hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes), cerebrovascular disease and dementia were amongst the most common chronic conditions in all age groups, whereas the gastroprotective drugs and antithrombotic agents were the most dispensed drugs. Centenarians presented in general lower morbidity and treatment burden and lower use of both primary and hospital healthcare services than octogenarians and nonagenarians, suggesting a better health status. Sex-differences in their clinical characteristics were more striking in octogenarians and tended to decrease with age.

Life expectancy with negative physical oral health impact on quality of life in older adults

Abstract: Oral impairments can affect overall health and life expectancy in older adults. Our study evaluates the life expectancy with negative physical oral health impact on quality of life (POHIQoL) among older adults. Life expectancy with negative POHIQoL was estimated by the Sullivan method, using the prevalence of POHIQoL - obtained in the Health, Well-being and Ageing (SABE Study); and official mortality data for adults aged 60 years or older living in São Paulo, Brazil. Between 2000 and 2010, negative POHIQoL increased from 23.4% (95%CI: 20.2-26.9) to 30.4% (95%CI: 27.0-34.3) among older adults; total life expectancy increased from 22 and 17.5 to 23.7 and 19.4 years among 60-year-old women and men, respectively; and the proportion of remaining years to be lived with negative POHIQoL increased from 25.1% to 32.1% for the same age group. In both years, individuals aged 60 years with lower education level were expected to live more years with negative POHIQoL when compared with the most schooled ones (2000: 15.9 [95%CI: 15.0-16.8] vs. 14.3 [95%CI: 13.7-14.8]; 2010: 16.3 [95%CI: 15.1-17.4] vs. 14.1 [95%CI: 13.2-15.1]). Similarly, women were expected to live more years with negative POHIQoL than men. Within ten years, life expectancy with negative POHIQoL increased, as well as the existence of inequalities in sex and education level among Brazilian older adults. Expansion in coverage and focus on equity in dental care are still necessary to overcome persistent dental-related problems and inequalities and, therefore, contribute to healthy ageing.

A multi-dimensional perspective on the gender gap in health among older adults in India and China: application of a new ageing measure

A continuous rise of female life expectancy above that of males among older adults in India and China may give the impression that the relative gender gap in health in these countries is decreasing. However, given the systemic gender bias against older females in these countries across multiple dimensions of health, a fuller understanding of the gender gap in health calls for a multi-dimensional perspective. We estimate a multi-dimensional old-age threshold (MOAT) that specifies different old-age thresholds for female and male populations which accommodates multiple dimensions related to physical, intellectual and general health. We use the MOAT to evaluate the multi-dimensional gender gap in India and China by differencing the MOAT for females with that of males. Females in both countries have a lower MOAT than their male counterparts, indicating an earlier advent of ‘old age’ for females. The multi-dimensional estimates of the gender gap are also higher than the estimates based on only one dimension of health. A considerable level of variation is also observed in the gender gap across provinces. The study illustrates the need to understand the gender gap in health in India and China from a multi-dimensional perspective and provides an innovative way to quantify such a gap. Province-specific as well as health dimension-specific interventions are vital in reducing the gender gap among older adults in these countries.

Estimation of Government Health Expenditures in Iran During 2006 to 2011, Using Panel Data

The status of public resources in health has a positive and direct impact on this sector's outcomes because of its effect on the increase of social services. The government's ability to manage health expenditures greatly depends on identifying the determinants of these expenditures. Therefore, this study aimed to determine factors affecting the government health expenditures and estimate the related function in Iran during 2006-2011 using panel data. This was a cross-sectional and time-series study that was conducted using panel data analysis. In this study, the data were collected and categorized separately for each province from documents in the Ministry of Health and the Statistical Center of Iran. The results showed that there were positive associations between health expenditures and some factors including age group of 20 to 39 years (P = .04), the number of women (P = .001), the number of physicians, the number of hospital beds, and annual budget (P < .001). According to the results, it seems that allocating a part of health subsidies for increasing the insurance coverage of the age group of 20 to 39 years and also starting saving accounts can have an important effect on reducing health expenditures of this age group.

APOE Alleles and Extreme Human Longevity

We assembled a collection of 28,297 participants from seven studies of longevity and healthy aging comprising New England Centenarian, Long Life Family, Longevity Gene Population, Southern Italian Centenarian, Japanese Centenarian, the Danish Longevity, and the Health and Retirement Studies to investigate the association between the APOE alleles ε2ε3 and ε4 and extreme human longevity and age at death. By using three different genetic models and two definitions of extreme longevity based on either a threshold model or age at death, we show that ε4 is associated with a substantially decreased odds for extreme longevity, and increased risk for death that persists even beyond ages reached by less than 1% of the population. We also show that carrying the ε2ε2 or ε2ε3 genotype is associated with significantly increased odds to reach extreme longevity, with decreased risk for death compared with carrying the genotype ε3ε3 but with only a modest reduction in risk for death beyond an age reached by less than 1% of the population.

Trends in health inequalities in 27 European countries

Unfavorable health trends among the lowly educated have recently been reported from the United States. We analyzed health trends by education in European countries, paying particular attention to the possibility of recent trend interruptions, including interruptions related to the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. We collected and harmonized data on mortality from ca 1980 to ca 2014 for 17 countries covering 9.8 million deaths and data on self-reported morbidity from ca 2002 to ca 2014 for 27 countries covering 350,000 survey respondents. We used interrupted time-series analyses to study changes over time and country-fixed effects analyses to study the impact of crisis-related economic conditions on health outcomes. Recent trends were more favorable than in previous decades, particularly in Eastern Europe, where mortality started to decline among lowly educated men and where the decline in less-than-good self-assessed health accelerated, resulting in some narrowing of health inequalities. In Western Europe, mortality has continued to decline among the lowly and highly educated, and although the decline of less-than-good self-assessed health slowed in countries severely hit by the financial crisis, this affected lowly and highly educated equally. Crisis-related economic conditions were not associated with widening health inequalities. Our results show that the unfavorable trends observed in the United States are not found in Europe. There has also been no discernible short-term impact of the crisis on health inequalities at the population level. Both findings suggest that European countries have been successful in avoiding an aggravation of health inequalities.

Physical Activity, the Compression of Morbidity, and the Health of the Elderly

The Compression of Morbidity hypothesis envisions a potential reduction of overall morbidity, and of health care costs, now heavily concentrated in the senior years, by compression of morbidity between an increasing age of onset of disability and the age of death, increasing perhaps more slowly1,2. For this scenario to be able to be widely achieved, largely through prevention of disease and disability, we need to identify variables which predict future ill health, modify these variables, and document the improvements in health that result3. Physical activity is perhaps the most obvious of the variables which might reduce overall lifetime morbidity.

Disability Experience and Measurement

Top themes of international research on disability in the past three decades are discussed: disability dynamics, buffers and barriers for disability, disability trends, and disability among very old persons. Each theme is highlighted by research examples. Turning to measurement, I discuss traditional measures of disability, new longer and shorter ones, and composites like disability-free life expectancy, noting their merits. Contemporary models of disability are presented, ranging from visual images to formal theories. The article ends on how scientists can facilitate movement of disability science into health care practice and policy.

Value for money: an evaluation of health spending in Canada

The long-term increase in international health spending sparked concerns about sustainability of health care systems but also the impact of such spending and the value for money from health spending. The period since 1975 has witnessed an increase in per capita health spending in Canada along with improvements in health outcomes. This paper is an economic evaluation of health spending in Canada-an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of aggregate health spending. Estimates of the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) are made for the whole 1980-2012 period and for four sub-periods of time-1980-1989; 1989-1998; 1998-2007 and 2007-2012. This is done for both the general population as well as Canadian seniors. Under a medium contribution of health spending to life expectancy scenario for the 1980-2012 period, the costs per QALY gained averaged $16,977 and $14,968, respectively for the general population and the seniors. This suggests that the Canadian health system produces relatively good value for money, especially for the seniors. After applying separate adjustments to match total health spending in the US and NHS health spending in the UK, we found that costs per QALY gained in Canada were generally lower than those found for the US, but not for the UK.

Psychological distress in mid-life: evidence from the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts

BACKGROUND

This paper addresses the levels of psychological distress experienced at age 42 years by men and women born in 1958 and 1970. Comparing these cohorts born 12 years apart, we ask whether psychological distress has increased, and, if so, whether this increase can be explained by differences in their childhood conditions.

METHOD

Data were utilized from two well-known population-based birth cohorts, the National Child Development Study and the 1970 British Cohort Study. Latent variable models and causal mediation methods were employed.

RESULTS

After establishing the measurement equivalence of psychological distress in the two cohorts we found that men and women born in 1970 reported higher levels of psychological distress compared with those born in 1958. These differences were more pronounced in men (b = 0.314, 95% confidence interval 0.252-0.375), with the magnitude of the effect being twice as strong compared with women (b = 0.147, 95% confidence interval 0.076-0.218). The effect of all hypothesized early-life mediators in explaining these differences was modest.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings have implications for public health policy, indicating a higher average level of psychological distress among a cohort born in 1970 compared with a generation born 12 years earlier. Due to increases in life expectancy, more recently born cohorts are expected to live longer, which implies - if such differences persist - that they are likely to spend more years with mental health-related morbidity compared with earlier-born cohorts.

The challenges of treating peripheral arterial disease

Today, peripheral arterial disease (PAD) patients need effective medical care for an extended period of their lifetime. Therefore, different treatment modalities have to be tied sequentially into an effective therapeutic chain. First, preventive measures have to be reinforced and risk factors tightly controlled. Furthermore, antiplatelet agents have to be applied in every PAD patient to reduce the risk of cardiac and cerebral ischemic events, restenosis or reocclusion after revascularization, and possibly also progression of the PAD itself. Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors should be entertained in high-risk groups such as PAD patients with diabetes. In the claudicant, exercise therapy should be strongly encouraged and vasoactive drugs considered for those who are not good candidates for either exercise training or revascularization. In patients with disabling claudication or critical limb ischemia, revascularization procedures are highly effective. Especially for high-grade stenoses or short arterial occlusions, percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) should be the method of fi rst choice followed by the best surgical procedure later on. To achieve good long-term effi cacy, a close follow-up including objective tests of both the arterial lesion and hemodynamic status, surveillance of secondary preventive measures and risk factor control is mandatory.

Examination of the Causes and Mechanisms of the Increase in Disability-Free Life Expectancy

From 1981 to 1991, life expectancy at birth in France increased by 2.5 years. Health survey data show that during this 10-year period, disability-free life expectancy increased significantly by 3.0 years in males and 2.6 years in females. Consequently, the proportion of years lived without disability within life expectancy has increased. For example, in males it increased from 86.4% to 87.5% in this time period. These observations show that, contrary to the frequent predictions of "pandemia" of disabilities or expansion of morbidity, the major increase in life expectancy in France over the past 10 years has been accompanied by a compression of morbidity. In the present study, the authors explore the causes and mechanisms of this positive development.

Prevalence of Self-Reported Arthritis Among Elders From Latin America and the Caribbean and Among Mexican Americans From the Southwestern United States

This study examines the prevalence of self-reported arthritis and arthritis symptoms and their relationship to functional limitations in elders from Latin America and the Caribbean and in Mexican Americans from the southwestern United States. This study includes 8,122 elderly aged 60 and older from seven Latin America and Caribbean countries and 2,580 noninstitutionalized Mexican Americans aged 65 or older residing in the southwestern United States. The estimated prevalence of self-reported arthritis ranged from 23.8% in Mexico City to 55.6% in Havana. The prevalence of self-reported pain among arthritic subjects across all countries ranged from 30.7% in older Mexican Americans to 83.7% in Santiago. Arthritis was independently associated with any Activities of Daily Living and any Instrumental Activities of Daily Living limitation across the eight countries after controlling for relevant factors. Self-reported arthritis and arthritis symptoms are highly prevalent among elders from Latin America and the Caribbean and older Mexican Americans and is a significant cause of disability in all studied populations.

Planning for the Future

Health expectancy measures incorporating mortality and morbidity may better determine the future needs of older people than current methods solely using mortality rates. Life expectancy with and without visual disability was calculated from two longitudinal studies of the elderly. Various scenarios of changing input transition rates were then explored. Women had a greater probability of transition to disability. Thus, increases in incidence had a larger impact for women than for men on resulting life-years with visual disability, reducing the proportion of remaining disability-free life by 2.1%. When mortality continued to decrease but incidence increased and recovery decreased, there was an increase in life expectancy, although for women this was offset by an even greater increase in years spent with visual disability. Health expectancy calculated from longitudinal data may be useful in exploring potential future variations in incidence, treatment, and mortality rates and their effect on population health.

The Burden of Selected Diseases Among Older People in Denmark

Objective: The study evaluated the health impact of specific diseases. Method: Life tables and health survey data are combined to estimate expected lifetime with and without long-standing illness. We compared estimates based on observed rates of mortality and prevalence of illness with those based on hypothetical rates from which a specific disease has been eliminated. Results: Life expectancy would increase by 4.0 years for 65-year-olds if circulatory diseases are eliminated, and the proportion of expected lifetime without long-standing, limiting illness would increase from 59.2% to 66.5% for men and from 52.2% to 55.6% for women. Elimination of musculoskeletal diseases would not change life expectancy but would increase the proportion of expected lifetime without long-standing illness. Conclusions: Because of comorbidity, more years of illness are to be expected if lethal diseases are to be eliminated. Elimination of nonfatal diseases would mainly transfer years with long-standing illness to years without illness.

Functional Impairment and Co-Disability in the Oldest Old

Using a multidimensional approach, we explore rates of co-disability in a representative sample of the oldest old living in Sweden. Drawing from census data, 324 subjects ranging in age from 84 to 90 were identified and evaluated for five domains of functioning: sensory, mobility, physical activities of daily living (PADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and cognitive. Three patterns of functioning were found: (1) a minority of high-functioning subjects (23%) with no or only mild disability in any domain; (2) a group (17%) with IADL deficits only; and (3) a majority of subjects (55%) with multiple disabilities. These results suggest that an accurate portrayal of the oldest old requires a multidimensional approach in which the interrelations among domains of functioning are taken into account Of particular relevance for planning services and care is the heterogeneity of this population, which necessitates a flexible mix of supportive programs that match the resources and abilities of the individual.

Changes in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at birth between 2000 and 2010 across Japanese prefectures

OBJECTIVES

The second phase of Healthy Japan 21 seeks to increase disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) more than life expectancy (LE) between 2013 and 2022. In the face of the rising incidence of disability, the feasibility of achieving this goal remains unclear.

METHODS

We examine changes in DFLE at birth between 2000 and 2010 across 47 prefectures, with particular attention given to changes in the absolute number of years and in the proportion of disability-free life years.

RESULTS

Although LE increased across all prefectures, there is a variation in DFLE. While the number of disability-free life years increased in many parts of the country, some prefectures had decreases in DFLE. Downturns become particularly evident when DFLE is interpreted in relative terms. The proportion of life spent without disability declined in the majority of prefectures.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from subnational level analyses suggest that the rate of increase in DFLE lagged behind that in LE across Japanese prefectures during the past decade. More policy attention should be devoted to health-promotion initiatives at the prefecture level to achieve the nationwide health agenda.

[Live longer and better? Estimates of healthy life expectancy in the Brazilian population]

This study analyzed differences in healthy life expectancy in the elderly based on three health dimensions in Brazil from 1998 to 2008: disability-free life expectancy, healthy life expectancy based on self-rated health, and chronic disease-free life expectancy. The Sullivan method was used, combining life tables from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and interval estimates of the prevalence of functional disability, self-rated health, and chronic diseases according to the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey (PNAD, 1998 and 2008). Besides the increase in life expectancy, the study showed significant and similar increases in disability-free life expectancy and healthy life expectancy based on self-rated health at almost all ages. Women had higher life expectancies than men, but expected to live longer with poor health, regardless of the indicator used to measure health. Although the studies measured health differently (making comparisons difficult), women showed a consistent disadvantage in healthy life expectancy.

Incidence of ADL Disability in Older Persons, Physical Activities as a Protective Factor and the Need for Informal and Formal Care--Results from the SNAC-N Project

Background

The aim of the study was to examine 1) the incidence of disability in Activities of Daily Living (ADL), in persons 78 years and older 2) explore whether being physical active earlier is a significant predictor of being disability free at follow-up and 3) describe the amount of informal and formal care in relation to ADL-disability.

Methods

Data were used from a longitudinal community-based study in Nordanstig (SNAC-N), a part of the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care (SNAC). To study objectives 1) and 2) all ADL-independent participants at baseline (N = 307) were included; for objective 3) all participants 78 years and older were included (N = 316). Data were collected at baseline and at 3- and 6-year follow-ups. ADL-disability was defined as a need for assistance in one or more activities. Informal and formal care were measured using the Resource utilization in Dementia (RUD)-instrument.

Results

The incidence rates for men were similar in the age groups 78-81and 84 years and older, 42.3 vs. 42.5/1000 person-years. For women the incidence rate for ADL-disability increased significantly from the age group 78–81 to the age group 84 years and older, 20.8 vs.118.3/1000 person-years. In the age group 78–81 years, being physically active earlier (aOR 6.2) and during the past 12 month (aOR 2.9) were both significant preventive factors for ADL-disability. Both informal and formal care increased with ADL-disability and the amount of informal care was greater than formal care. The incidence rate for ADL-disability increases with age for women and being physically active is a protective factor for ADL-disability.

Conclusion

The incidence rate for ADL-disability increases with age for women, and being physical active is a protective factor for ADL-disability.

Secular trends in frailty: a comparative study of 75-year olds born in 1911-12 and 1930

BACKGROUND

while there is a trend towards a compression of disability, secular trends in physiological frailty have not been investigated. The aim of this paper was to report physiological frailty in two cohorts of 75-year olds examined in 1987 and 2005.

METHODS

a repeated cross-sectional study : Two population-based birth cohorts of community-dwelling 75-year olds from Gothenburg, Sweden, born in 1911-12 (n = 591) and 1930 (n = 637) were examined with identical methods in 1987 and 2005. Measures were three frailty criteria from Fried's frailty phenotype: low physical activity, slow gait speed and self-reported exhaustion.

RESULTS

seventy-five-year olds examined in 2005 were less frail according to the criteria low physical activity compared with those examined in 1987 (3 versus 18%, P < 0.001).This was seen both in women and in men, and among those with basic and more than basic educational level. Further, men with basic education were less frail in 2005 compared with those in 1987 in slow gait speed (non-significant when adjusted for body height) and low self-rated fitness, while no cohort differences were seen in men with more than basic education. Women with more than basic education were less frail in 2005 compared with those in 1987 in slow gait speed and self-rated fitness, while no cohort difference was seen in women with basic education.

CONCLUSION

less 75-year olds were physiologically frail in 2005 compared with those in 1987, with the exception of women with low educational level, suggesting that this is a disadvantaged group that needs to receive particular attention with regard to physiological frailty.

Carga de doença no Brasil e suas regiões, 2008

No presente estudo, o DALY (anos de vida perdidos ajustados por incapacidade), indicador de estudos de carga de doença, foi estimado para o Brasil em 2008. Entre os principais resultados, observam-se maior carga de doença no Norte e Nordeste e preponderância das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis em todas as regiões do país, em particular as doenças cardiovasculares, os transtornos mentais, com destaque para a depressão, o diabetes e a doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica. Também chama a atenção a elevada carga dos homicídios e dos acidentes de trânsito. O perfil epidemiológico apresenta-se ainda mais complexo quando se considera a carga não desprezível das doenças transmissíveis, das condições maternas, das condições perinatais e das deficiências nutricionais. As análises empreendidas ao longo do estudo possibilitaram conhecer de forma mais detalhada o status de saúde da população, evidenciando a demanda por ações transversais, que vão além de políticas específicas circunscritas à área de saúde, bem como a necessidade de ampliar o escopo de preocupação com a qualidade das informações sobre morbimortalidade no Brasil.

Self-perceived health in the czech population: recent evidence

This article considers developing trends in self-perceptions of health among the Czech population. Its conclusions are based on data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) conducted from 2005-2011. The data analysis suggests that the compression of morbidity is present, but the Czech Republic continues to lag behind Western Europe. In addition, among males the difference in health expectancies between the Czech Republic and the EU-15 is due to a change in mortality at higher ages, rather than in self-perceived health. Among females the opposite is true. Demographic categories, such as "attained education" and "age-group" proved to be significant factors in influencing self-perceived health in the Czech population for the year 2011. Gender and marital status seem to be less important.

Benefits gained, benefits lost: comparing baby boomers to other generations in a longitudinal cohort study of self-rated health

POLICY POINTS: Despite beliefs that baby boomers are healthier than previous generations, we found no evidence that the health of baby boomers is substantially different from that of the previous or succeeding cohorts. The effects of increased education, higher income, and lower smoking rates on improving self-rated health were nearly counterbalanced by the adverse effect of increasing body mass index (BMI). Assumptions that baby boomers will require less health care as they age because of better education, more prosperity, and less propensity to smoke may not be realized because of increases in obesity.

CONTEXT

Baby boomers are commonly believed to be healthier than the previous generation. Using self-rated health (SRH) as an indicator of health status, this study examines the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trajectory of health across 4 generations: World War II (born between 1935 and 1944), older baby boomers (born between 1945 and 1954), younger baby boomers (born between 1955 and 1964), and Generation X (born between 1965 and 1974).

METHODS

We analyzed Canada's longitudinal National Population Health Survey 1994-2010 (n = 8,570 at baseline), using multilevel growth models to estimate the age trajectory of SRH by cohort, accounting for period and incorporating the influence of changes in education, household income, smoking status, and body mass index (BMI) on SRH over time.

FINDINGS

SRH worsened with increasing age in all cohorts. Cohort differences in SRH were modest (p = 0.034), but there was a significant period effect (p = 0.002). We found marked cohort effects for increasing education, income, and BMI, and decreasing smoking from the youngest to the oldest cohorts, which were much reduced (education and smoking) or removed (income and BMI) once period was taken into account. At the population level, multivariable analysis showed the benefits of increasing education and income and declines in smoking on the trajectory of improving SRH were almost counterbalanced by the effects of increasing BMI (obesity).

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence to support the expectation that baby boomers will age more or less healthily than previous cohorts did. We also found that increasing BMI has likely undermined improvements in health that might have otherwise occurred, with possible implications for the need for health care. Period effects had a more profound effect than birth cohort effects. This suggests that interventions to improve health, such as reducing obesity, can be targeted to the entire, or a major portion of the, population and need not single out particular birth cohorts.

Economic and social implications of aging societies

The challenge of global population aging has been brought into sharper focus by the financial crisis of 2008. In particular, growing national debt has drawn government attention to two apparently conflicting priorities: the need to sustain public spending on pensions and health care versus the need to reduce budget deficits. A number of countries are consequently reconsidering their pension and health care provisions, which account for up to 40% of all government spending in advanced economies. Yet population aging is a global phenomenon that will continue to affect all regions of the world. By 2050 there will be the same number of old as young in the world, with 2 billion people aged 60 or over and another 2 billion under age 15, each group accounting for 21% of the world's population.

The ratchet effect: dramatic and sustained changes in health care utilization following admission to hospital with chronic disease

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Objective:

To describe the previously unexamined association between admissions to hospital with chronic disease and changes in all-cause health service utilization over time.

Research Design:

A cohort study examining the population of Western Australia with hospitalizations for chronic disease from 2002 to 2010. A “rolling” clearance period is used to define “cardinal events,” that is, a disease-specific diagnosis upon hospital admission, where such an event has not occurred in the previous 2 years. Changes in the rate of cardinal events associated with diagnoses of heart failure, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cataract with diabetes, asthma, and dialysis are examined. Health service utilization (defined as inpatient days or emergency department presentations) 6 years preceding and 4 years following such events is presented.

Results:

Cardinal events make up 40%–60% of all chronic disease admissions. A previously undescribed ratchet effect following cardinal events specifically associated with type 2 diabetes, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is observed. This involves a 2- to 3-fold increase in inpatient days and emergency department presentations that are sustained for at least 4 years.

Conclusions:

Cardinal events represent an important reference point to understand the impact of chronic disease on health service utilization. Events that herald such a marked transition in health service demand have not been previously described.

Improving retention of very old participants in longitudinal research: experiences from the Newcastle 85+ study

Background

People aged 85 and over are often excluded from research on the grounds of being difficult to recruit and problematic to retain. The Newcastle 85+ study successfully recruited a cohort of 854 85-year-olds to detailed health assessment at baseline and followed them up over 3 phases spanning 5 years. This paper describes the effectiveness of its retention strategies.

Methods

Primary retention strategies involved meticulous management of contact information and active maintenance of contact with participants between research visits and between phases of the study. For statistical analysis, data on post-inclusion attrition over the 3 follow-up phases was separated into ‘death’ and ‘withdrawal’ categories, with sub-categories ‘health’ and ‘non-health’ reasons created for ‘withdrawal’. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine if particular socio-demographic and health characteristics were associated with post-inclusion attrition due to withdrawal at each of the 3 phase-to-phase transition points.

Results

For both sexes, at successive follow-up phases there was a decrease in attrition due to withdrawal and an increase due to death. Withdrawal was most prevalent between baseline and phase 2. Across the 5 years of the study total post-inclusion (post-baseline) attrition due to death accounted for a 40% (344/854) loss to cohort and total post-inclusion attrition due to withdraw a 19% (166/854) loss to cohort, with health reasons for withdrawal becoming more dominant over time. Adjusting for sex, parsimonious modelling showed only occupational class (National Statistics Socio-economic Classification) to be associated with withdrawal and only between baseline and phase 2 (routine/manual compared to managerial (OR 3.41; 95% CI [1.23 to 9.44]).

Conclusion

Following successful recruitment, we retained a high proportion of participants from a very old age group over 5 years of longitudinal research. No strong predictors of post-inclusion attrition due to withdrawal were found, suggesting the general effectiveness of our retention strategies.

Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland

BACKGROUND

The population of Greenland comprises almost 31,000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s.

METHODS

Partial life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from changes in mortality and disability.

RESULTS

Partial life expectancy increased by 2.2 years for men and 0.8 years for women during the entire period. However, expected lifetime in self-rated good health decreased by 3.3 years for men and by 4.6 years for women (p<0.01). For men, life expectancy without longstanding illness increased by 4.7 years (p<0.001). The increase for women by 1.4 years was non-significant (p=0.29). Expected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases increased significantly by 4.5 years for men and by 1.9 years for women.

CONCLUSIONS

The development of expected lifetime without longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women is remarkable, and has reduced the gender gap. The results call for special concern about the women's health in Greenland.