Timing, rates, and causes of death in a large South African tuberculosis programme

A systematic review of risk factors for mortality among tuberculosis patients in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB)-associated mortality in South Africa remains high. This review aimed to systematically assess risk factors associated with death during TB treatment in South African patients.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of TB research articles published between 2010 and 2018. We searched BioMed Central (BMC), PubMed®, EBSCOhost, Cochrane, and SCOPUS for publications between January 2010 and December 2018. Searches were conducted between August 2019 and October 2019. We included randomised control trials (RCTs), case control, cross sectional, retrospective, and prospective cohort studies where TB mortality was a primary endpoint and effect measure estimates were provided for risk factors for TB mortality during TB treatment. Due to heterogeneity in effect measures and risk factors evaluated, a formal meta-analysis of risk factors for TB mortality was not appropriate. A random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for all studies and for specific subgroups so that these could be compared. Quality assessments were performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale or the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool.

RESULTS

We identified 1995 titles for screening, 24 publications met our inclusion criteria (one cross-sectional study, 2 RCTs, and 21 cohort studies). Twenty-two studies reported on adults (n = 12561) and two were restricted to children < 15 years of age (n = 696). The CFR estimated for all studies was 26.4% (CI 18.1-34.7, n = 13257 ); 37.5% (CI 24.8-50.3, n = 5149) for drug-resistant (DR) TB; 12.5% (CI 1.1-23.9, n = 1935) for drug-susceptible (DS) TB; 15.6% (CI 8.1-23.2, n = 6173) for studies in which drug susceptibility was mixed or not specified; 21.3% (CI 15.3-27.3, n = 7375) for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV); 19.2% (CI 7.7-30.7, n = 1691) in HIV-negative TB patients; and 6.8% (CI 4.9-8.7, n = 696) in paediatric studies. The main risk factors associated with TB mortality were HIV infection, prior TB treatment, DR-TB, and lower body weight at TB diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

In South Africa, overall mortality during TB treatment remains high, people with DR-TB have an elevated risk of mortality during TB treatment and interventions to mitigate high mortality are needed. In addition, better prospective data on TB mortality are needed, especially amongst vulnerable sub-populations including young children, adolescents, pregnant women, and people with co-morbidities other than HIV. Limitations included a lack of prospective studies and RCTs and a high degree of heterogeneity in risk factors and comparator variables.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

The systematic review protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) under the registration number CRD42018108622. This study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Investment ID OPP1173131) via the South African TB Think Tank.

Screening adults with tuberculosis for severe illness at notification: programme experience from Gujarat, India

BACKGROUND

National tuberculosis (TB) programmes in high-burden countries do not systematically assess severity at diagnosis followed by referral for inpatient care. Due to limited capacity, comprehensive assessment of all TB patients is not practical. In three districts of Gujarat (West India) in June 2021, we determined the feasibility of screening for severe illness by paramedical staff of public facilities and the burden of 'high risk for severe illness' at notification among adults (≥15 y of age) with TB.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, the screening criteria for high risk for severe illness was the presence of any one of the following: body mass index (BMI) ≤14.0 kg/m2, BMI ≤16.0 kg/m2 with bilateral leg swelling, respiratory rate >24/min, oxygen saturation <94% or inability to stand without support. We summarized the feasibility indicators and burden using proportion (95% confidence interval [CI]) and median, as applicable.

RESULTS

Of 626 notified adults, 87% were screened. The median time interval for screening was 3 d from notification and all indicators were collected in 97% of patients. The burden of high risk for severe illness was high, at 41.6% (95% CI 37.5 to 45.8).

CONCLUSIONS

High burden and feasibility (high coverage, acceptable time interval and minimal missing data) makes a strong case for routine screening of severe illness.

Screening for Severe Illness at Diagnosis Has the Potential to Prevent Early TB Deaths: Programmatic Experience From Karnataka, India

Despite TB being a potentially fatal disease, severity is not systematically assessed at the start of drug-susceptible TB treatment. We document our experience screening people for severe illness at diagnosis/notification in program settings and the potential impact on reducing early TB deaths.

Due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and its associated response, TB deaths increased for the first time in a decade. In any potentially fatal illness, an assessment of severity is essential. This is not systematically done for adults with TB, mostly due to a lack of policy and/or limited availability of diagnostic and clinical capacity. We developed a screening tool using simple and easily measurable indicators that can be used by paramedical TB program staff to quickly identify people with severe illness. During October–November 2020 in Karnataka, India, the paramedical program staff from 16 districts screened people with TB (aged ≥15 years) notified by public facilities for “high risk of severe illness,” which was defined as the presence of any of the following indicators: (1) body mass index (BMI) ≤14.0 kg/m²; (2) BMI ≤16.0 kg/m² with bilateral leg swelling; (3) respiratory rate >24/minute; (4) oxygen saturation <94%; (5) inability to stand without support. In this cohort study, we determined the incidence of program-recorded early deaths (within 2 months) and its association with high risk of severe illness. Of 3,010 people with TB, 1,529 (50.8%) were screened at diagnosis/notification, of whom 537 (35.1%) had a high risk of severe illness. There were 195 (6.5%, 95% CI=5.7, 7.4) early deaths: 59 (30.2%) within a week and 100 (51.3%) within 2 weeks of treatment initiation. The incidence of early deaths was significantly higher among those with high risk of severe illness (8.9%) at diagnosis compared to those without (3.8%) [adjusted relative risk: 2.36 (95% confidence interval=1.57, 3.55)]. To conclude, early deaths were especially high during the first 2 weeks and strongly associated with a high risk of severe illness at diagnosis/notification. Screening for severe illness should be explored as a potential strategy to end TB deaths.

Incidence and predictors of mortality among persons receiving second-line tuberculosis treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: A meta-analysis of 43 cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance remains from among the most feared public health threats that commonly challenges tuberculosis treatment success. Since 2010, there have been rapid evolution and advances to second-line anti-tuberculosis treatments (SLD). However, evidence on impacts of these advances on incidence of mortality are scarce and conflicting. Estimating the number of people died from any cause during the follow-up period of SLD as the incidence proportion of all-cause mortality is the most informative way of appraising the drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment outcome. We thus aimed to estimate the pooled incidence of mortality and its predictors among persons receiving the SLD in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We systematically identified relevant studies published between January, 2010 and March, 2020, by searching PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Cochrane library, Google scholar, and Health Technology Assessment. Eligible English-language publications reported on death and/or its predictors among persons receiving SLD, but those publications that reported death among persons treated for extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis were excluded. Study features, patients' clinical characteristics, and incidence and/or predictors of mortality were extracted and pooled for effect sizes employing a random-effects model. The pooled incidence of mortality was estimated as percentage rate while risks of the individual predictors were appraised based on their independent associations with the mortality outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 43 studies were reviewed that revealed 31,525 patients and 4,976 deaths. The pooled incidence of mortality was 17% (95% CI: 15%-18%; I2 = 91.40; P = 0.00). The studies used varied models in identifying predictors of mortality. They found diagnoses of clinical conditions (RR: 2.36; 95% CI: 1.82-3.05); excessive substance use (RR: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.78-3.67); HIV and other comorbidities (RR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.65-2.32); resistance to SLD (RR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.37-2.23); and male sex (RR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.35-2.44) as consistent predictors of the mortality. Few individual studies also reported an increased incidence of mortality among persons initiated with the SLD after a month delay (RR: 1.59; 95% CI: 0.98-2.60) and those persons with history of tuberculosis (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.12-1.32).

CONCLUSIONS

We found about one in six persons who received SLD in sub-Saharan Africa had died in the last decade. This incidence of mortality among the drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in the sub-Saharan Africa mirrors the global average. Nevertheless, it was considerably high among the patients who had comorbidities; who were diagnosed with other clinical conditions; who had resistance to SLD; who were males and substance users. Therefore, modified measures involving shorter SLD regimens fortified with newer or repurposed drugs, differentiated care approaches, and support of substance use rehabilitation programs can help improve the treatment outcome of persons with the drug-resistant tuberculosis.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020160473; PROSPERO.

Mortality and associated factors among adult patients on tuberculosis treatment in Tanzania: A retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) is the global leading cause of death from an infectious agent. Tanzania is among the 30 high TB burden countries with a mortality rate of 47 per 100,000 population and a case fatality of 4%. This study assessed mortality rate, survival probabilities, and factors associated with death among adult TB patients on TB treatment in Tanzania.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted utilizing case-based national TB program data of adult (≥15 years) TB cases enrolled on TB treatment from January 2017 to December 2017. We determined survival probabilities using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify independent risk factors of TB mortality. Hazard ratios and their respective 95% confidence intervals were reported.

RESULTS

Of 53,753 adult TB patients, 1927 (3.6%) died during TB treatment and the crude mortality rate was 6.31 per 1000 person-months. Male accounted for 33,297 (61.9%) of the study population and the median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 40 (30-53) years. More than half 1027 (56.7%) of deaths occurred in first two months of treatment. Overall survival probabilities were 96%, and 92% at 6th and 12th month respectively. The independent risk factors for TB mortality among TB patients included: advanced age ≥ 45 years (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.45-2.08); receiving service at the hospital level (aHR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.09-1.36); TB/HIV co-infection (aHR = 2.51, 95% CI = 2.26-2.79); facility-based direct observed therapy (DOT) option (aHR = 2.23, 95% CI = 1.95-2.72); having bacteriological unconfirmed TB results (aHR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.42-1.76); and other referral type (aHR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.16-1.78).

CONCLUSION

Advanced age, TB/HIV co-infection, bacteriological unconfirmed TB results, other referral types, receiving service at facility-based DOT option and obtaining service at the hospital level were significant contributors to TB death in Tanzania. Appropriate targeted intervention to improve TB referral systems, improve diagnostic capacity in the primary health facilities, minimize delay and misdiagnosis of TB patients might reduce TB mortality.

The effect of empirical and laboratory-confirmed tuberculosis on treatment outcomes

The World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for diagnosing and treating Tuberculosis (TB) includes clinical signs, therefore not requiring bacteriological laboratory confirmation. In resource-limited settings, including Kenya, this empirical TB treatment is routine practice however limited data exist on patient clinical outcomes when comparing the method of diagnosis. We evaluated TB treatment outcomes comparing clinically diagnosed and bacteriologically confirmed TB, 6 months after starting treatment of TB in a rural county in Kenya. Our analysis compared patients with a clinical versus a bacteriologically confirmed TB diagnosis. In this retrospective analysis, we included all adults (≥ 18 years) starting treatment of TB and followed up for 6 months, within the County TB surveillance database from 2012 to 2018. Patients included from both public and private facilities. The TB treatment outcomes assessed included treatment success, treatment failure, death, defaulted and transferred out. We used survival regression models to assess effect of type of diagnosis on TB treatment outcome defining time at risk from date of starting treatment to experiencing one of the treatment outcomes or completing 6-months of treatment. A total of 12,856 patients; median age 37 [IQR 28 − 50] years were included. 7639 (59%) were male while 11,339 (88%) were pulmonary TB cases. Overall, 11,633 (90%) were given first-line TB treatment and 3791 (29%) were HIV infected. 6472 (50%) of the patients were clinically diagnosed of whom 4521/6472 (70%) had a negative sputum/GeneXpert test. During the study 5565 person-years (PYs) observed, treatment success was 82% and 83% amongst clinically and bacteriologically diagnosed patients (P = 0.05). There were no significant differences in defaulting (P = 0.70) or transfer out (P = 0.19) between clinically and bacteriologically diagnosed patients. Mortality was significantly higher among clinically diagnosed patients: 639 (9.9%) deaths compared to 285 (4.5%) amongst the bacteriologically diagnosed patients; aHR 5.16 (95%CI 2.17 − 12.3) P < 0.001. Our study suggests survival during empirical TB treatment is significantly lower compared to patients with laboratory evidence, irrespective of HIV status and age. To improve TB treatment outcomes amongst clinically diagnosed patients, we recommend systematic screening for comorbidities, prompt diagnosis and management of other infections.

Screening People with Tuberculosis for High Risk of Severe Illness at Notification: Programmatic Experience from Karnataka, India

Due to limited availability of diagnostics and capacity, people with tuberculosis do not always undergo systematic assessment for severe illness (requiring inpatient care). In Karnataka (south India), para-medical programme staff used a screening tool to identify people at 'high risk of severe illness', defined using indicators of very severe undernutrition, abnormal vital signs and poor performance status (any one): (i) body mass index (BMI) ≤ 14.0 kg/m² (ii) BMI ≤ 16.0 kg/m² with bilateral leg swelling (iii) respiratory rate > 24/min (iv) oxygen saturation < 94% (v) inability to stand without support. Of 3020 adults notified from public facilities (15 October to 30 November 2020) in 16 districts, 1531 (51%) were screened (district-wise range: 13-90%) and of them, 538 (35%) were classified as 'high risk of severe illness'. Short median delays in screening from notification (five days), and all five indicators being collected for 88% of patients, suggests the feasibility of using this tool in programme settings. However, districts with poor screening coverage require further attention. To end tuberculosis deaths, screening should be followed by referral to higher facilities for comprehensive clinical evaluation, to assess the need for inpatient care. Future studies should assess the validity (especially sensitivity in picking severely ill patients) of this screening tool.

Post-treatment Mortality Among Patients With Tuberculosis: A Prospective Cohort Study of 10 964 Patients in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is the leading infectious cause of death. Steep reductions in tuberculosis-related mortality are required to realize the World Health Organization's "End Tuberculosis Strategy." However, accurate mortality estimates are lacking in many countries, particularly following discharge from care. This study aimed to establish the mortality rate among patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in Vietnam and to quantify the excess mortality in this population.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study among adult patients treated for smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in 70 clinics across Vietnam. People living in the same households were recruited as controls. Participants were re-interviewed and their survival was established at least 2 years after their treatment with an 8-month standardized regimen. The presence of relapse was established by linking identifying data on patients and controls to clinic registries. Verbal autopsies were performed. The cumulative mortality among patients was compared to that among a control population, adjusting for age and gender.

RESULTS

We enrolled 10964 patients and 25707 household controls. Among enrolled tuberculosis patients, 9% of patients died within a median follow-up period of 2.9 years: 342 (3.1%) during treatment and 637 (5.8%) after discharge. The standardized mortality ratio was 4.0 (95% confidence interval 3.7-4.2) among patients with tuberculosis, compared to the control population. Tuberculosis was the likely cause of death for 44.7% of these deceased patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients treated for tuberculosis had a markedly elevated risk of death, particularly in the post-treatment period. Interventions to reduce tuberculosis mortality must enhance the early detection of drug-resistance, improve treatment effectiveness, and address non-communicable diseases.

Silicosis and pulmonary tuberculosis in deceased female South African miners

BACKGROUND

Implementation of South Africa's 2002 Mining Charter increased women's participation in underground mining. However, occupational lung diseases (OLDs) in female gold miners have not been studied.

AIMS

To compare autopsy-diagnosed pulmonary silicosis, lymph gland silicosis (a precursor of pulmonary silicosis) and active pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in South African gold miners.

METHODS

The law allows for autopsies on miners for OLD compensation. Information is stored on the Pathology Automation (PATHAUT) database. We selected records of deceased miners who had worked only in gold mines, started employment from 2002, and were autopsied between 2005 and 2015. Using descriptive statistics, we compared demographic and employment characteristics, and disease proportions by sex.

RESULTS

The study comprised 847 gold miners: 68 women and 779 men. There were no statistically significant differences in proportions of autopsy-diagnosed pulmonary silicosis [3 (4%) in women and 54 (7%) in men], lymph gland silicosis [11 (16%) and 171 (22%)] or PTB [29 (43%) and 254 (33%)]. Age and employment duration in women and men with disease were similar. Most miners with pulmonary silicosis had started employment from 2003 [315 (77%)] and worked for under 10 years.

CONCLUSION

It is important to report research findings by sex. Proportions of silicosis and PTB were comparable in women and men, suggesting similar exposures. Silicosis detection after short employment indicates inadequate dust control, particularly as most entered the industry after implementation of interventions to control silica dust in 2003.

Tuberculosis deaths are predictable and preventable: Comprehensive assessment and clinical care is the key

The goal of reducing tuberculosis (TB) mortality in the END TB Strategy can be achieved if TB deaths are considered predictable and preventable. This will require programs to examine and address some key gaps in the understanding of the distribution and determinants of TB mortality and the current model of assessment and care in high burden countries.

Most deaths in high-burden countries occur in the first eight weeks of treatment and in those belonging to the age group of 15–49 years, living in poverty, with HIV infection and/or low body mass index (BMI). Deaths result from extensive disease, comorbidities like advanced HIV disease complicated with other infections (bacterial, fungal, bloodstream), and moderate-severe undernutrition. Most early deaths in patients with TB, even with TB-HIV co-infection, are due to TB itself.

Comprehensive assessment and clinical care are a prerequisite of patient-centered care. Simple independent predictors of death like unstable vital signs, BMI, mid-upper arm circumference, or inability to stand or walk unaided can be used by programs for risk assessment. Programs need to define criteria for referral for inpatient care, address the paucity of hospital beds and develop and implement guidelines for the clinical management of seriously ill patients with TB, advanced HIV disease and severe undernutrition as co-morbidities. Programs should also consider notification and audit of all TB deaths, similar to audit of maternal deaths, and address the issues in delays in diagnosis, treatment, and quality of care.

Treatment outcomes and factors associated with mortality among individuals with both TB and HIV in the antiretroviral era in Thailand

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare treatment outcomes and factors associated with mortality in HIV-1-positive and HIV-1-negative individuals.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study between July 2008 and December 2016. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with outcomes and death after tuberculosis (TB) treatment.

RESULTS

A total of 996 individuals with TB, 228 (22.9%) with HIV-1 co-infection and 770 (77.1%) who were HIV-1 negative were reviewed. The overall treatment success rate was 74.3%. The HIV-1-negative individuals with TB had significantly higher treatment success rates (77.2% vs 64.5%, P < 0.001). Using logistic regression analysis, age >50 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.24-6.76; P < 0.001), body weight ≤45 kg (aOR 2.19, 95% CI 1.14-4.19; P = 0.02) and HIV-1-positive status (aOR 3.31, 95% CI 1.84-5.91; P < 0.001) were independently associated with death during TB treatment. Among HIV-1-positive individuals, not undergoing antiretroviral therapy (ART), having diabetes and a CD4 T cell count of <50 cells/mm3 were significantly associated with death.

CONCLUSION

Individuals who had both TB and HIV-1 in Thailand had lower TB treatment success and higher mortality rates compared with individuals with TB without HIV-1. Strategies to improve ART uptake and to reduce risk of developing active TB among individuals with advanced HIV-1 infection should be scaled up.

AIDS-defining causes of death from autopsy findings for HIV-positive individuals in sub-Saharan Africa in the pre- and post-ART era: A systematic review and meta-analyses

Background: The lack of representative data on causes of death in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) hampers our understanding of the regional burden of HIV and impact of interventions. In spite of the roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs, HIV-infected individuals are still dying from complications of AIDS in SSA. We reviewed autopsy findings in SSA to observe whether the prevalence of 14 AIDS-defining illnesses changed from the pre-ART era to the post-ART era. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of autopsy findings in SSA using Medline, CINAHL, Evidence Based Medicine, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, and abstracts from the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, for literature published between January 1, 1990 and September 30, 2018. We focused on 14 AIDS-defining illnesses as causes of death. Results: In total, 33 studies were identified, including 9 from South Africa, 4 from the Ivory Coast, and the rest from eastern regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Of these, 18 studies were included in the meta-analyses for each of the AIDS-defining illnesses for adults. A ‘mixed group’ of studies that included adults and children was used for separate meta-analyses. Most opportunistic infections (OIs) showed a decrease in prevalence, with the notable exception of tuberculosis (TB), which showed a 13% increase in adult deaths and a 5% increase in mixed population group deaths. Kaposi’s sarcoma and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma both showed a notable increase in prevalence, and liver disease showed a 10% increase in prevalence in the adult group. Conclusions: Even though ART has reduced the contribution of OIs to causes of death for people infected with HIV in SSA, targeted and strategic efforts are needed in order to strengthen existing prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of TB. More research is required to understand the complex role ARTs have on liver and kidney diseases.

Time delay and associated mortality from negative smear to positive Xpert MTB/RIF test among TB/HIV patients: a retrospective study

Background

The GeneXpert MTB/RIF Assay (Xpert®) is known to be a feasible, effective and a hopeful tool for rapid tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and treatment. However, little is known about the time delay caused by initial negative sputum smear microscopy (NSSM), but consecutive positive Xpert TB test (PXTBt) and its association with TB mortality in resource-constrained settings. We aimed to estimate the median time delay between initial NSSM but consecutive PXTBt and TB treatment initiation and its association with TB mortality among TB/HIV co-infected patients in Beira, Mozambique.

Methods

we used data from a retrospective cohort study of TB/HIV co-infected patients in six TB services in Beira city. The study included all patients that tested NSSM, followed by a PXTBt in the six health centers with TB services during the year 2015. Data were extracted from the laboratory and TB treatment registers. To assess the difference in median time delays between groups, Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests were computed. To analyze the associations between the time delays and TB mortality, logistic regression model was used.

Results

Among the 283 patients included in the study, median (IQR) age was 31 (17) years, 59.0% were males, 57.6% in the WHO clinical fourth stage of HIV. The median (IQR) values for diagnostic delay, treatment delay and total time delay was 10 (9) days, 13 (12) days and 28 (20) days, respectively. For TB/HIV co-infected patients who tested negative for smear microscopy initially, a total time delay of one month or longer was associated with high mortality (aOR = 12.40, 95% CI: 5.70–22.10).

Conclusion

Our study indicates that delays in TB diagnosis and treatment resulting from initial NSSM, but consecutive PXTBt are common in Beira city and are one of the main factors associated with TB mortality among TB/HIV co-infected patients. Applying GeneXpert assay as gold standard for HIV-positive patients with suspected pulmonary TB or replacing the sputum smear microscopy by Xpert assay and its availability within 24 h is urgently needed to ensure early diagnosis and treatment, and to maximize the impact of the few resources available in the country.

Mortality of patients hospitalized for active tuberculosis in King Abdulaziz University Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

OBJECTIVES

To determine the mortality rates and predictors among patients hospitalized with active tuberculosis (TB) at King Abdulaziz University Hospital (KAUH) in Jeddah.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed on 291 active TB patients hospitalized in KAUH, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia from December 2011 to December 2016. Medical records were collected and evaluated using a dedicated data extraction sheet. The records included demographics, clinical, radiological, laboratory, and drug resistance data.

RESULTS

Of the 291 patients, 168 had pulmonary TB, 39 had extrapulmonary TB, and 84 had both pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB. After a mean hospital stay of 1.74 months, 85.9% were successfully treated and discharged. However, 14% died in the hospital after a mean stay of 1.87 months. Predictors of inpatient TB mortality were older age, congestive heart failure, renal failure, diabetes mellitus, chronic lung disease, hepatitis B virus infection, bilateral pulmonary TB, miliary TB, pleural effusion, and leukopenia. In particular, a logistic regression model revealed a mortality probability of 90% in patients older than 65 with congestive heart failure and bilateral lung involvement. However, drug resistance did not significantly affect the mortality rate. Conclusions: The inpatient TB mortality rate was lower than mortality rates described previously. Nevertheless, early recognition, appropriate treatments, and education for patients and caregivers concerning treatment, efficient medical management, and effective preventive measures can further reduce mortality.

Precarious transition: a mortality study of South African ex-miners

Background

Despite their burden of a triple epidemic of silicosis, tuberculosis and HIV infection, little is known about the mortality experience of miners from the South African mining industry once they leave employment. Such information is important because of the size and dispersion of this population across a number of countries and the progressive nature of these diseases.

Methods

This study included 306,297 South African miners who left the industry during 2001–2013. The study aimed to calculate crude and standardised mortality rates, identify secular trends in mortality and model demographic and occupational risk factors for mortality.

Results

Crude mortality rates peaked in the first year after exit (32.8/1000 person-years), decreasing with each year from exit. Overall mortality was 20% higher than in the general population. Adjusted annual mortality halved over the 12 year period. Mortality predictors were being a black miner [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.30; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.15–3.46]; underground work (aHR 1.33; 95% CI 1.28–1.39); and gold aHR 1.15 (95% CI 1.12–1.19) or multiple commodity employment (aHR 1.15; 95% CI 1.11–1.19).

Conclusions

This is the first long-term mortality assessment in the large ex-miner population from the South African mining industry. Mortality patterns follow that of the national HIV-tuberculosis epidemic and antiretroviral treatment availability. However, ex-miners have further elevated mortality and a very high mortality risk in the year after leaving the workforce. Coordinated action between the mining industry, governments and non-governmental organisations is needed to reduce the impact of this precarious transition.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5749-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Clinical response of tuberculosis patients, a prospective cohort study

Clinical response means a response to drug intake that can be detected and appreciated by a change in signs and symptoms. The objectives of this study were to assess time to clinical response, the incidence density for clinical response and determinants of clinical response of tuberculosis (TB) patients in the intensive phases of TB treatment. Prospective cohort study design was implemented. The target population for this study was all patients following the directly observed therapy. Baseline data has been collected during the start of the directly observed TB treatment strategy. We have been collected updated data after the seven days of the baseline data collection, then after every seven days updated data has been collected from each pulmonary and extra pulmonary TB patients. Kaplan Meier curve was used to estimate time to clinical response. Incidence density using person days was used to estimate incidence of clinical response. Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify the predictors of clinical responses. A total of 1608 TB patients were included with a response rate at 99.5%. The mean age of the respondents was 24.5 years [standard deviation (SD) 14.34 years]. The incidence density for clinical response was 1429/38529 person days. One fourth of the TB patients showed clinical response at day 14, 25% of at day 21 and 75% o at day 31. Predictors of clinical response for TB patients includes: age (AHR 1.007 [95% CI 1.003-1.011]), type of TB (AOR 2.3[95% CI 2.04-2.59]), Previous history of TB (AHR 0.18 [95% CI 0.11-0 .30]), Intestinal parasitic infection (AOR 0.22[95% CI 0.19-0.26]), hemoglobin (AOR 2.35 [95% CI 2.18-2.54]), weight gain (AOR 1.11 [95% CI 1.05-1.17]), Micronutrient supplementation (AOR 9.71 [95% CI 8.28-11.38]), male sex (AOR 0.87 [95% CI 0.79-0.97]).The clinical responses for extra-pulmonary TB patients were slower than pulmonary TB. Deworming and micronutrient supplementation should be considered as the additional TB treatment strategy for TB patients.

Reduction of HIV-associated excess mortality by antiretroviral treatment among tuberculosis patients in Kenya

Background

Mortality from TB continues to be a global public health challenge. TB ranks alongside Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) as the leading infectious causes of death globally. HIV is a major driver of TB related morbidity and mortality while TB is the leading cause of mortality among people living with HIV/AIDS. We sought to determine excess mortality associated with HIV and the effect of antiretroviral therapy on reducing mortality among tuberculosis patients in Kenya.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of Kenya national tuberculosis program data of patients enrolled from 2013 through 2014. We used direct standardization to obtain standardized mortality ratios for tuberculosis patients compared with the general population. We calculated the population attributable fraction of tuberculosis deaths due to HIV based on the standardized mortality ratio for deaths among TB patients with HIV compared to TB patients without HIV. We used Cox proportional hazards regression for assessing risk factors for mortality.

Results

Of 162,014 patients included in the analysis, 6% died. Mortality was 10.6 (95% CI: 10.4–10.8) times higher among TB patients than the general population; 42% of deaths were attributable to HIV infection. Patients with HIV who were not receiving ART had an over four-fold risk of death compared to patients without HIV (aHR = 4.2, 95% CI 3.9–4.6). In contrast, patients with HIV who were receiving ART had only 2.6 times the risk of death (aHR = 2.6, 95% CI 2.5–2.7).

Conclusion

HIV was a significant contributor to TB-associated deaths in Kenya. Mortality among HIV-infected individuals was higher among those not on ART than those on ART. Early initiation of ART among HIV infected people (a “test and treat” approach) should further reduce TB-associated deaths.

Mortality in patients with HIV-1 and tuberculosis co-infection in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - associated factors and causes of death

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is the most frequent opportunistic infection and the leading cause of death among persons living with HIV in several low and middle-income countries. Mortality rates during tuberculosis treatment and death causes among HIV-1/TB co-infected patients may differ based on the immunosuppression severity, timing of diagnosis and prompt initiation of tuberculosis and antiretroviral therapy.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study conducted in the clinical cohort of patients with HIV-1/Aids of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases Evandro Chagas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. All HIV-1 infected patients who started combination antiretroviral therapy up to 30 days before or within 180 days after the start of tuberculosis treatment from 2000 to 2010 were eligible. Causes of death were categorized according to the "Coding Causes of Death in HIV" (CoDe) protocol. The Cox model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of selected mortality variables.

RESULTS

A total of 310 patients were included. Sixty-four patients died during the study period. Mortality rate following tuberculosis treatment initiation was 44 per 100 person-years within the first 30 days, 28.1 per 100 person-years within 31 and 90 days, 6 per 100 person-years within 91 and 365 days and 1.6 per 100 person-years after 365 days. Death probability within one year from tuberculosis treatment initiation was approximately 13%. In the adjusted analysis the associated factors with mortality were: CD4 ≤ 50 cells/mm3 (HR: 3.10; 95% CI: 1.720 to 5.580; p = 0.00); mechanical ventilation (HR: 2.81; 95% CI: 1.170 to 6.760; p = 0.02); and disseminated tuberculosis (HR: 3.70; 95% CI: 1.290 to 10.590, p = 0.01). Invasive bacterial disease was the main immediate cause of death (46.9%).

CONCLUSION

Our results evidence the high morbidity and mortality among patients co-infected with HIV-1 and tuberculosis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. During the first year following tuberculosis diagnosis, mortality was the highest within the first 3 months, being invasive bacterial infection the major cause of death. In order to successfully intervene in this scenario, it is utterly necessary to address the social determinants of health contributing to the inequitable health care access faced by this population.

High mortality among tuberculosis patients on treatment in Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of death in much of sub-Saharan Africa despite available effective treatment. Prompt initiation of TB treatment and access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains vital to the success of TB control. We assessed time to mortality after treatment onset using data from a large treatment centre in Nigeria.

Methods

We analysed a retrospective cohort of TB patients that commenced treatment between January 2010 and December 2014 in Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital. We estimated mortality rates per person-months at risk (pm). Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine risk factors for mortality.

Results

Among 1,424 patients with a median age of 36.6 years, 237 patients (16.6%) died after commencing TB treatment giving a mortality rate of 3.68 per 100 pm of treatment in this cohort. Most deaths occurred soon after treatment onset with a mortality rate of 37.6 per 100 pm in the 1^st week of treatment. Risk factors for death were being HIV-positive but not on anti-retroviral treatment (ART) (aHR 1.39(1 · 04–1 · 85)), residence outside the city (aHR 3 · 18(2.28–4.45)), previous TB treatment (aHR 3.48(2.54–4.77)), no microbiological confirmation (aHR 4.96(2.69–9.17)), having both pulmonary and extra-pulmonary TB (aHR 1.45(1.03–2.02), and referral from a non-programme linked clinic/centre (aHR 3.02(2.01–4.53)).

Conclusions

We attribute early deaths in this relatively young cohort to delay in diagnosis and treatment of TB, inadequate treatment of drug-resistant TB, and poor ART access. Considerable expansion and improvement in quality of diagnosis and treatment services for TB and HIV are needed to achieve the sustainable development goal of reducing TB deaths by 95% by 2035.

Tuberculosis associated mortality in a prospective cohort in Sub Saharan Africa: Association with HIV and antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

Nine out of ten tuberculosis deaths occur in tuberculosis-burdened countries, particularly Sub Saharan Africa. In these setting mortality has not been fully described. We describe the magnitude and pattern of TB mortality in Tanzania.

METHODS

A multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted among HIV infected and uninfected pulmonary tuberculosis patients from time of anti-TB treatment initiation to completion. Patients were censored at the time of treatment completion, or at their last visit for those who did not complete TB treatment. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate time to death; cox proportional hazards model was used to examine risk factors for mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 58 deaths out of 1696 patients (3.4%) occurred, two thirds (n=39) during the first two months of treatment. Compared to HIV un-infected TB patients, mortality risk for TB/HIV co-infected patients was least when antiretroviral therapy (ART) was initiated after 14 days of anti-TB (RR=3.55; 95% CI: 1.44, 8.73 p<0.0001) and highest when ART was initiated 90 days or less prior to anti-TB and within the first 14 days of anti-TB therapy (RR=10; 95% CI: 3.28, 30.54; p<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Meticulously planned and supervised antiretroviral therapy reduces mortality among TB/HIV patients. Among patients with TB/HIV naïve of ART, withholding ART until the third week of anti-tuberculosis therapy will likely reduce TB mortality in Tanzania. Patients on ART and later develop tuberculosis should be closely monitored.

Insights into mortality patterns and causes of death through a process point of view model

Process point of view (POV) models of mortality, such as the Strehler-Mildvan and stochastic vitality models, represent death in terms of the loss of survival capacity through challenges and dissipation. Drawing on hallmarks of aging, we link these concepts to candidate biological mechanisms through a framework that defines death as challenges to vitality where distal factors defined the age-evolution of vitality and proximal factors define the probability distribution of challenges. To illustrate the process POV, we hypothesize that the immune system is a mortality nexus, characterized by two vitality streams: increasing vitality representing immune system development and immunosenescence representing vitality dissipation. Proximal challenges define three mortality partitions: juvenile and adult extrinsic mortalities and intrinsic adult mortality. Model parameters, generated from Swedish mortality data (1751-2010), exhibit biologically meaningful correspondences to economic, health and cause-of-death patterns. The model characterizes the twentieth century epidemiological transition mainly as a reduction in extrinsic mortality resulting from a shift from high magnitude disease challenges on individuals at all vitality levels to low magnitude stress challenges on low vitality individuals. Of secondary importance, intrinsic mortality was described by a gradual reduction in the rate of loss of vitality presumably resulting from reduction in the rate of immunosenescence. Extensions and limitations of a distal/proximal framework for characterizing more explicit causes of death, e.g. the young adult mortality hump or cancer in old age are discussed.

Home-Based and Facility-Based Directly Observed Therapy of Tuberculosis Treatment under Programmatic Conditions in Urban Tanzania

Introduction

Decentralization of Directly Observed Treatment (DOT) for tuberculosis (TB) to the community (home-based DOT) has improved the coverage of TB treatment and reduced the burden to the health care facilities (facility-based DOT). We aimed to compare TB treatment outcomes in home-based and facility-based DOT under programmatic conditions in an urban setting with a high TB burden.

Methodology

A retrospective analysis of a cohort of adult TB patients (≥15 years) routinely notified between 2010 and 2013 in two representative TB sub-districts in the Temeke district, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We assessed differences in treatment outcomes by calculating Risk Ratios (RRs). We used logistic regression to assess the association between DOT and treatment outcomes.

Results

Data of 4,835 adult TB patients were analyzed, with a median age of 35 years, 2,943 (60.9%) were men and TB/HIV co-infection prevalence of 39.9%. A total of 3,593 (74.3%) patients were treated under home-based DOT. Patients on home-based DOT were more likely to die compared to patients on facility-based DOT (RR 2.04, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI]: 1.52–2.73), and more likely to complete TB treatment (RR 1.14, 95% CI: 1.06–1.23), but less likely to have a successful treatment outcome (RR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.92–0.97). Home-based DOT was preferred by women (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 1.55, 95% CI: 1.34–1.80, p<0.001), older people (aOR 1.01 for each year increase, 95% CI: 1.00–1.02, p = 0.001) and patients with extra-pulmonary TB (aOR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.16–1.81, p = 0.001), but less frequently by patients on a retreatment regimen (aOR 0.12, 95% CI: 0.08–0.19, p<0.001).

Conclusions/significance

TB patients under home-based DOT had more frequently risk factors of death such as older age, HIV infection and sputum smear-negative TB, and had higher mortality compared to patients under facility-based DOT. Further operational research is needed to monitor the implementation of DOT under programmatic conditions.

High mortality in tuberculosis patients despite HIV interventions in Swaziland

SETTING

All health facilities providing tuberculosis (TB) care in Swaziland.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) interventions on the trend of TB treatment outcomes during 2010-2013 in Swaziland; and to describe the evolution in TB case notification, the uptake of HIV testing, antiretroviral therapy (ART) and cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT), and the proportion of TB-HIV co-infected patients with adverse treatment outcomes, including mortality, loss to follow-up and treatment failure.

DESIGN

A retrospective descriptive study using aggregated national TB programme data.

RESULTS

Between 2010 and 2013, TB case notifications in Swaziland decreased by 40%, HIV testing increased from 86% to 96%, CPT uptake increased from 93% to 99% and ART uptake among TB patients increased from 35% to 75%. The TB-HIV co-infection rate remained around 70% and the proportion of TB-HIV cases with adverse outcomes decreased from 36% to 30%. Mortality remained high, at 14-16%, over the study period, and anti-tuberculosis treatment failure rates were stable over time (<5%).

CONCLUSION

Despite high CPT and ART uptake in TB-HIV patients, mortality remained high. Further studies are required to better define high-risk patient groups, understand the reasons for death and design appropriate interventions.

Poor tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Southern Mozambique (2011-2012)

BACKGROUND

In Mozambique, there is limited data regarding the monitoring of Tuberculosis (TB) treatment results and determinants of adverse outcomes under routine surveillance conditions. The objectives of this study were to evaluate treatment outcomes among TB patients, analyze factors associated with a fatal outcome and determine the proportion of deaths attributable to TB in the district of Manhiça, Southern Mozambique.

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational study based on TB patients diagnosed in the period 2011-2012. We used three different data sources: a) TB related variables collected by the National TB Control Program in the district of Manhiça for all TB cases starting treatment in the period 2011-2012. b) Population estimates for the district were obtained through the Mozambican National Statistics Institute. c) Deaths and other relevant demographic variables were collected from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System at Manhiça Health Research Center. WHO guidelines were used to define TB cases and treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

Of the 1957 cases starting TB treatment in the period 2011-2012, 294 patients (15.1 %) died during anti-tuberculous treatment. Ten per cent of patients defaulted treatment. The proportion of patients considered to have treatment failure was 1.1 %. HIV infection (OR 2.73; 95 % CI: 1.70-4.38), being male (OR: 1.39; 95 % CI 1.01-1.91) and lack of laboratory confirmation (OR: 1.54; 95 % CI 1.12-2.13) were associated with dying during the course of TB treatment (p value <0.05). The contribution of TB to the overall death burden of the district for natural reasons was 6.5 % (95 % CI: 5.5-7.6), higher for males than for females (7.8 %; 95 % CI: 6.1-9.5 versus 5.4 %; 95 % CI: 4.1-6.8 respectively). The age group within which TB was responsible for the highest proportion of deaths was 30-34 among males and 20-24 among females (20 % of all deaths in both cases).

CONCLUSION

This study shows a very high proportion of fatal outcomes among TB cases starting treatment. There is a high contribution of TB to the overall causes of mortality. These results call for action in order to improve TB (and TB/HIV) management and thus treatment outcomes of TB patients.

Tuberculosis

Although the worldwide incidence of tuberculosis has been slowly decreasing, the global disease burden remains substantial (∼9 million cases and ∼1·5 million deaths in 2013), and tuberculosis incidence and drug resistance are rising in some parts of the world such as Africa. The modest gains achieved thus far are threatened by high prevalence of HIV, persisting global poverty, and emergence of highly drug-resistant forms of tuberculosis. Tuberculosis is also a major problem in health-care workers in both low-burden and high-burden settings. Although the ideal preventive agent, an effective vaccine, is still some time away, several new diagnostic technologies have emerged, and two new tuberculosis drugs have been licensed after almost 50 years of no tuberculosis drugs being registered. Efforts towards an effective vaccine have been thwarted by poor understanding of what constitutes protective immunity. Although new interventions and investment in control programmes will enable control, eradication will only be possible through substantial reductions in poverty and overcrowding, political will and stability, and containing co-drivers of tuberculosis, such as HIV, smoking, and diabetes.

Clinical outcomes and mortality associated factors in patients infected with HIV receiving a presumptive anti-tuberculosis treatment in a tertiary level hospital in Burkina Faso

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) in sub-Saharan Africa. In PLHIV, Smear-Negative Pulmonary Tuberculosis (SNPTB) and Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis (EPTB) are predominant. Presumptive anti-tuberculosis (anti-TB) treatment is often delayed leading to a high mortality rate.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the clinical outcomes of presumptive anti-TB treatment in HIV patients suspected of having TB and to determine the factors associated with patients' death.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective descriptive study from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2008 in the Department of Internal Medicine of the Hospital Yalgado Ouédraogo on patients infected with HIV who received a presumptive anti-TB treatment. Defining patients with SNPTB or EPTB was based on the 2007 WHO's diagnostic algorithm of SNPTB and EPTB.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixteen patients of the 383 (30.2%) HIV patients hospitalized in this period were suspected of having TB. The average CD4 count was 86.1 cells/µl (SD = 42.3). A SNPTB was diagnosed in 67 patients (57.8%) and a EPTB in 49 patients (42.2%). The median length of hospitalization duration was 23.5 days. The average time of initiation of anti-TB treatment after admission was 22 days (SD = 9.2 days). Evolution during the hospital stay was favorable for 65 patients (56.0%), unfavorable for 48 patients (41.4% or 12.5% of all hospitalized patients), and 3 patients (2.6%) were treatment defaulters. In a multivariate analysis, hospitalization duration longer than 15 days and a delay of anti-TB treatment initiation of more than 30 days are independent factors associated with patients' deaths.

CONCLUSION

An urgent access to TB-diagnostic tools and a revision of the International algorithm for the diagnosis and treatment of SNPTB and EPTB in the context of HIV could help to reduce the delay of anti-TB treatment initiation and the mortality rate of PLHIV in sub-Saharan Africa.