Regional-based within-year seasonal variations in influenza-related health outcomes across mainland China: a systematic review and spatio-temporal analysis

Integrating multiplex PCR in fever clinics for acute respiratory pathogen-specific diagnosis

The epidemiological patterns of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) have experienced substantial changes due to the influence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), with a particular focus on acute respiratory infections (ARIs). Challenges in early diagnosis, inadequate triage strategies, and the inappropriate use of antimicrobials or antivirals have compounded the difficulties in accurately diagnosing and managing ARIs in the post-pandemic context. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of fever clinics equipped with nucleic acid testing capabilities in the precise triage of ARIs. In a cohort of 604 individuals presenting with symptoms of ARIs, we utilized real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) technology available in the fever clinic to perform nucleic acid testing for SARS-CoV-2, influenza A virus (Flu A), influenza B virus (Flu B), respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, human rhinovirus, and Mycoplasma pneumoniae. Subsequently, statistical methods were employed to analyze the distribution and types of ARIs associated with these pathogens. In fever clinics, most patients presenting with respiratory pathogen infections were diagnosed with non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory pathogens, with a higher incidence noted among pediatric patients compared to adults. In contrast, SARS-CoV-2 primarily affected the adult population and was linked to more severe clinical outcomes. Consequently, the swift triage of patients exhibiting ARI symptoms in a fever clinic equipped with nucleic acid testing enables the rapid identification and precise treatment of pathogens. This approach alleviates patient discomfort and enhances the efficiency of healthcare resource utilization.

Exploration of the impact of air pollutants on the influenza epidemic after the emergence of COVID-19: based on Jiangsu Province, China (2020-2024)

Background

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic altered influenza transmission patterns, yet the age-specific effects of air pollutants on influenza dynamics remain unclear.

Methods

Utilizing influenza surveillance data of Jiangsu Province from 2020 to 2024, we integrated generalized additive quasi-Poisson regression model and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to quantify lagged effects and exposure-response relationships between air pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM2.5) and influenza risk across young, middle-aged, and older adult groups. Meteorological factors, including temperature and humidity, as well as the implementation stages of NPIs, were controlled in the model to isolate the impact of pollutants on influenza transmission.

Results

The NO2 and SO2 both showed significant positive effects in all age groups. The effect of NO2 is most significant in the young group (RR = 5.02, 95% CI: 4.69-5.37), while SO2 exhibited the most pronounced effects in middle-aged and older adult groups (RR = 4.22, 95% CI: 3.36-5.30; RR = 8.31, 95% CI: 5.77-11.96, respectively). PM2.5 elevated risks in young (RR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.87-2.12) and older adult (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.07-1.94) groups. Interactions between meteorological factors (temperature, humidity) and pollutants were statistically insignificant.

Conclusions

Air pollutant impacts on influenza transmission are age-dependent: NO2 dominates in younger populations, whereas SO2 disproportionately affects older adults. These findings highlight age-related vulnerability to air pollution and the need for targeted public health strategies for different population subgroups.

Predicting influenza in China from October 1, 2023, to February 5, 2024: A transmission dynamics model based on population migration

Introduction

Since November 2023, influenza has ranked first in reported cases of infectious diseases in China, with the outbreak in both northern and southern provinces exceeding the levels observed during the same period in 2022. This poses a serious health risk to the population. Therefore, short to medium-term influenza predictions are beneficial for epidemic assessment and can reduce the disease burden.

Methods

A transmission dynamics model considering population migration, encompassing susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) was used to predict the dynamics of influenza before the Spring Festival travel rush.

Results

The overall epidemic shows a declining trend, with the peak expected to occur from week 47 in 2023 to week 1 in 2024. The number of cases of A (H3N2) is greater than that of influenza B, and the influenza situation is more severe in the southern provinces compared to the northern ones.

Conclusion

Our method is applicable for short-term and medium-term influenza predictions. As the spring festival travel rush approaches. Therefore, it is advisable to advocate for nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), influenza vaccination, and other measures to reduce healthcare and public health burden.

A Gaussian Process Regression and Wavelet Transform Time Series approaches to modeling Influenza A

The global spread of Influenza A viruses is worsening economic and social challenges. Various mechanistic models have been developed to understand the virus's spread and evaluate intervention effectiveness. This study aimed to model the temporal dynamics of Influenza A using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and wavelet transform approaches. The study employed Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Wavelet Power Spectrum to analyze time-series data from 2009 to 2023. The GPR model, known for its non-parametric Bayesian nature, effectively captured non-linear trends in the Influenza A data, while wavelet transforms provided insights into frequency and time-localized characteristics. The integration of GPR with DWT denoising techniques demonstrated superior performance in forecasting Influenza A cases compared to traditional models like Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) using Holt-Winter method. The study identified significant anomalies in Influenza A cases, corresponding to known pandemic events and seasonal variations. These findings highlight the effectiveness of combining wavelet transform analysis with GPR in understanding and predicting infectious disease patterns, offering valuable insights for public health planning and intervention strategies. The research recommends extending this approach to other respiratory viruses to assess its broader applicability.

Molecular epidemiology and phylogenetic analysis of influenza viruses A (H3N2) and B/Victoria during the COVID-19 pandemic in Guangdong, China

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical measures and travel restrictions have halted the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and influenza. Nonetheless, with COVID-19 restrictions lifted, an unanticipated outbreak of the influenza B/Victoria virus in late 2021 and another influenza H3N2 outbreak in mid-2022 occurred in Guangdong, southern China. The mechanism underlying this phenomenon remains unknown. To better prepare for potential influenza outbreaks during COVID-19 pandemic, we studied the molecular epidemiology and phylogenetics of influenza A(H3N2) and B/Victoria that circulated during the COVID-19 pandemic in this region.

METHODS

From January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2022, we collected throat swabs from 173,401 patients in Guangdong who had acute respiratory tract infections. Influenza viruses in the samples were tested using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, followed by subtype identification and sequencing of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes. Phylogenetic and genetic diversity analyses were performed on both genes from 403 samples. A rigorous molecular clock was aligned with the phylogenetic tree to measure the rate of viral evolution and the root-to-tip distance within strains in different years was assessed using regression curve models to determine the correlation.

RESULTS

During the early period of COVID-19 control, various influenza viruses were nearly undetectable in respiratory specimens. When control measures were relaxed in January 2020, the influenza infection rate peaked at 4.94% (39/789) in December 2021, with the influenza B/Victoria accounting for 87.18% (34/39) of the total influenza cases. Six months later, the influenza infection rate again increased and peaked at 11.34% (255/2248) in June 2022; influenza A/H3N2 accounted for 94.51% (241/255) of the total influenza cases in autumn 2022. The diverse geographic distribution of HA genes of B/Victoria and A/H3N2 had drastically reduced, and most strains originated from China. The rate of B/Victoria HA evolution (3.11 × 10-3, P < 0.05) was 1.7 times faster than before the COVID-19 outbreak (1.80 × 10-3, P < 0.05). Likewise, the H3N2 HA gene's evolution rate was 7.96 × 10-3 (P < 0.05), which is 2.1 times faster than the strains' pre-COVID-19 evolution rate (3.81 × 10-3, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the extraordinarily low detection rate of influenza infection, concealed influenza transmission may occur between individuals during strict COVID-19 control. This ultimately leads to the accumulation of viral mutations and accelerated evolution of H3N2 and B/Victoria viruses. Monitoring the evolution of influenza may provide insights and alerts regarding potential epidemics in the future.

Resurgence of seasonal influenza driven by A/H3N2 and B/Victoria in succession during the 2023-2024 season in Beijing showing increased population susceptibility

During the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions were introduced to reduce exposure to respiratory viruses. However, these measures may have led to an "immunity debt" that could make the population more vulnerable. The goal of this study was to examine the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in the years 2023-2024. Respiratory samples from patients with influenza-like illness were collected and tested for influenza A and B viruses. The electronic medical records of index cases from October 2023 to March 2024 were analyzed to determine their clinical and epidemiological characteristics. A total of 48984 positive cases were detected, with a pooled prevalence of 46.9% (95% CI 46.3-47.5). This season saw bimodal peaks of influenza activity, with influenza A peaked in week 48, 2023, and influenza B peaked in week 1, 2024. The pooled positive rates were 28.6% (95% CI 55.4-59.6) and 18.3% (95% CI 18.0-18.7) for influenza A and B viruses, respectively. The median values of instantaneous reproduction number were 5.5 (IQR 3.0-6.7) and 4.6 (IQR 2.4-5.5), respectively. The hospitalization rate for influenza A virus (2.2%, 95% CI 2.0-2.5) was significantly higher than that of influenza B virus (1.1%, 95% CI 0.9-1.4). Among the 17 clinical symptoms studied, odds ratios of 15 symptoms were below 1 when comparing influenza A and B positive inpatients, with headache, weakness, and myalgia showing significant differences. This study provides an overview of influenza dynamics and clinical symptoms, highlighting the importance for individuals to receive an annual influenza vaccine.

Molecular characterization of influenza virus circulating in Nepal in the year 2019

Influenza (sometimes referred to as "flu") is a contagious viral infection of the airways in the lungs that affects a significant portion of the world's population. Clinical symptoms of influenza virus infections can range widely, from severe pneumonia to moderate or even asymptomatic sickness. If left untreated, influenza can have more severe effects on the heart, brain, and lungs than on the respiratory tract and can necessitate hospitalization. This study was aimed to investigate and characterize all types of influenza cases prevailing in Nepal and to analyze seasonal occurrence of Influenza in Nepal in the year 2019. A cross sectional, retrospective and descriptive study was carried out at National Influenza Center (NIC), National Public Health Laboratory Kathmandu Nepal for the period of one year (Jan-Dec 2019). A total of 3606 throat swab samples from various age groups and sexes were processed at the NIC. The specimens were primarily stored at 4 °C and processed using ABI 7500 RT PCR system for the identification of Influenza virus types and subtypes. Data accessed for research purpose were retrieved from National Influenza Centre (NIC) on 1st Jan 2020. Of the total 3606 patients suspected of having influenza infection, influenza viruses were isolated from 1213 (33.6%) patients with male predominance. The highest number of infection was caused by Influenza A/Pdm09 strain 739 (60.9%) followed by Influenza B 304 (25.1%) and Influenza A/H3 169 (13.9%) and most remarkable finding of this study was the detection of H5N1 in human which is the first ever case of such infection in human from Nepal. Similar to other tropical nations, influenza viruses were detected year-round in various geographical locations of Nepal. The influenza virus type and subtypes that were in circulation in Nepal were comparable to vaccine candidate viruses, which the currently available influenza vaccine may prevent.

Melatonin improves influenza virus infection-induced acute exacerbation of COPD by suppressing macrophage M1 polarization and apoptosis

BACKGROUND

Influenza A viruses (IAV) are extremely common respiratory viruses for the acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD), in which IAV infection may further evoke abnormal macrophage polarization, amplify cytokine storms. Melatonin exerts potential effects of anti-inflammation and anti-IAV infection, while its effects on IAV infection-induced AECOPD are poorly understood.

METHODS

COPD mice models were established through cigarette smoke exposure for consecutive 24 weeks, evaluated by the detection of lung function. AECOPD mice models were established through the intratracheal atomization of influenza A/H3N2 stocks in COPD mice, and were injected intraperitoneally with melatonin (Mel). Then, The polarization of alveolar macrophages (AMs) was assayed by flow cytometry of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cells. In vitro, the effects of melatonin on macrophage polarization were analyzed in IAV-infected Cigarette smoking extract (CSE)-stimulated Raw264.7 macrophages. Moreover, the roles of the melatonin receptors (MTs) in regulating macrophage polarization and apoptosis were determined using MTs antagonist luzindole.

RESULTS

The present results demonstrated that IAV/H3N2 infection deteriorated lung function (reduced FEV20,50/FVC), exacerbated lung damages in COPD mice with higher dual polarization of AMs. Melatonin therapy improved airflow limitation and lung damages of AECOPD mice by decreasing IAV nucleoprotein (IAV-NP) protein levels and the M1 polarization of pulmonary macrophages. Furthermore, in CSE-stimulated Raw264.7 cells, IAV infection further promoted the dual polarization of macrophages accompanied with decreased MT1 expression. Melatonin decreased STAT1 phosphorylation, the levels of M1 markers and IAV-NP via MTs reflected by the addition of luzindole. Recombinant IL-1β attenuated the inhibitory effects of melatonin on IAV infection and STAT1-driven M1 polarization, while its converting enzyme inhibitor VX765 potentiated the inhibitory effects of melatonin on them. Moreover, melatonin inhibited IAV infection-induced apoptosis by suppressing IL-1β/STAT1 signaling via MTs.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggested that melatonin inhibited IAV infection, improved lung function and lung damages of AECOPD via suppressing IL-1β/STAT1-driven macrophage M1 polarization and apoptosis in a MTs-dependent manner. Melatonin may be considered as a potential therapeutic agent for influenza virus infection-induced AECOPD.

Impact of health education on promoting influenza vaccination health literacy in primary school students: a cluster randomised controlled trial protocol

INTRODUCTION

Influenza is a major public health threat, and vaccination is the most effective prevention method. However, vaccination coverage remains suboptimal. Low health literacy regarding influenza vaccination may contribute to vaccine hesitancy. This study aims to evaluate the effect of health education interventions on influenza vaccination rates and health literacy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This cluster randomised controlled trial will enrol 3036 students in grades 4-5 from 20 primary schools in Dongguan City, China. Schools will be randomised to an intervention group receiving influenza vaccination health education or a control group receiving routine health education. The primary outcome is the influenza vaccination rate. Secondary outcomes include health literacy levels, influenza diagnosis rate, influenza-like illness incidence and vaccine protection rate. Data will be collected through questionnaires, influenza surveillance and self-reports at baseline and study conclusion.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been sought from the Ethics Committee of the School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University. Findings from the study will be made accessible to both peer-reviewed journals and key stakeholders.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT06048406.

Effects of scheduled school breaks on the circulation of influenza in children, school-aged population, and adults in China: A spatio-temporal analysis

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the effect of scheduled school break on the circulation of influenza in young children, school-aged population, and adults.

METHODS

In a spatial-temporal analysis using influenza activity, school break dates, and meteorological covariates across mainland China during 2015-2018, we estimated age-specific, province-specific, and overall relative risk (RR) and effectiveness of school break on influenza.

RESULTS

We included data in 24, 25, and 17 provinces for individuals aged 0-4 years, 5-19 years and 20+ years. We estimated a RR meta-estimate of 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.40) and an effectiveness of 66% for school break in those aged 5-19 years. School break showed a lagged and smaller mitigation effect in those aged 0-4 years (RR meta-estimate: 0.73, 0.68-0.79) and 20+ years (RR meta-estimate: 0.89, 0.78-1.01) versus those aged 5-19 years.

CONCLUSION

The results show heterogeneous effects of school break between population subgroups, a pattern likely to hold for other respiratory infectious diseases. Our study highlights the importance of anticipating age-specific effects of implementing school closure interventions and provides evidence for rational use of school closure interventions in future epidemics.

Heterogeneity of influenza infection at precise scale in Yinchuan, Northwest China, 2012-2022: evidence from Joinpoint regression and spatiotemporal analysis

Identifying high-risk regions and turning points of influenza with a precise spatiotemporal scale may provide effective prevention strategies. In this study, epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering analysis at the township level were performed. A descriptive study and a Joinpoint regression analysis were used to explore the epidemiological characteristics and the time trend of influenza. Spatiotemporal autocorrelation and clustering analyses were carried out to explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and aggregation. Furthermore, the hotspot regions were analyzed by spatiotemporal scan analysis. A total of 4025 influenza cases were reported in Yinchuan showing an overall increasing trend. The tendency of influenza in Yinchuan consisted of three stages: increased from 2012 to the first peak in 2019 (32.62/100,000) with a slight decrease in 2016; during 2019 and 2020, the trend was downwards; then it increased sharply again and reached another peak in 2022. The Joinpoint regression analysis found that there were three turning points from January 2012 to December 2022, namely January 2020, April 2020, and February 2022. The children under ten displayed an upward trend and were statistically significant. The trend surface analysis indicated that there was a shifting trend from northern to central and southern. A significant positive spatial auto-correlation was observed at the township level and four high-incidence clusters of influenza were detected. These results suggested that children under 10 years old deserve more attention and the spatiotemporal distribution of high-risk regions of influenza in Yinchuan varies every year at the township level. Thus, more monitoring and resource allocation should be prone to the four high-incidence clusters, which may benefit the public health authorities to carry out the vaccination and health promotion timely.

Transplacental transfer efficiency of maternal antibodies against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus and dynamics of naturally acquired antibodies in Chinese children: a longitudinal, paired mother-neonate cohort study

BACKGROUND

The 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus (A(H1N1)pdm09 virus) evolves rapidly and has continued to cause severe infections in children since its emergence in 2009. We aimed to characterise the kinetics of maternally and naturally acquired antibodies against historical A(H1N1)pdm09 strains and to assess the extent to which the response to heterologous strains following infection or vaccination affects observed A(H1N1)pdm09 strain-specific antibody titres in a Chinese paediatric population.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we used residual serum samples from 528 mother-neonate pairs from a non-interventional, longitudinal cohort study in southern China conducted from Sept 20, 2013, to Aug 24, 2018, from six local hospitals in Anhua County, Hunan Province, China. Mother-neonate pairs were eligible for inclusion if the neonates were born after Sept 20, 2013, and their mothers had resided in the study sites for at least 3 months. We tested samples with a haemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay to measure antibody levels against three historical A(H1N1)pdm09 strains that were antigenically similar to the strains that circulated during the 2009 pandemic (A/Hunan-Kaifu/SWL4204/2009 [SWL4204/09 strain], A/Hunan-Daxiang/SWL1277/2016 [SWL1277/16 strain], and A/Hunan-Yanfeng/SWL185/2018 [SWL185/18 strain]). We also determined the seroprevalence, geometric mean titres (GMTs), transfer ratio of maternal antibodies, and the dynamics of maternally and naturally acquired antibodies in children, from birth to 3 years of age.

FINDINGS

1066 mother-neonate pairs were enrolled in the original cohort between Sept 20, 2013, and Oct 14, 2015. Of these, 528 pairs (523 mothers, 528 neonates) were selected for the present study. The median age of the mothers was 25 years (IQR 23 to 29). 291 (55%) of 528 children were boys and 237 (45%) were girls, and most children (452 [86%]) were breastfed before the age of 6 months. The GMTs and the seroprevalence for the SWL4204/09 strain were higher than those for the SWL1277/16 and SWL185/18 strains among mothers (GMTs: 10·4 [95% CI 9·8 to 11·1] vs 9·3 [8·7 to 9·8] vs 8·0 [7·5 to 8·4], p<0·0001; seroprevalence: 11·1% [95% CI 8·5 to 14·1] vs 6·9% [4·9 to 9·4] vs 4·6% [3·0 to 6·8], p=0·0003) and among neonates (GMTs: 10·7 [10·0 to 11·5] vs 9·4 [8·8 to 10·0] vs 8·1 [7·6 to 8·6], p<0·0001; seroprevalence: 13·4% [10·7 to 16·7] vs 8·7% [6·5 to 11·5] vs 6·1% [4·2 to 8·5], p=0·0002). Regardless of the A(H1N1)pdm09-specific strain, maternal antibodies could be transferred efficiently via the placenta (mean transfer ratios: 1·10 for SWL4204/09 vs 1·09 for SWL1277/16 vs 1·06 for SWL185/18; p=0·93). The A(H1N1)pdm09 strain-specific antibodies waned below the protective threshold of 1:40 within 2 months after birth. After maternal antibody waning, there were periodic increases and decreases in HAI antibody titres against three A(H1N1)pdm09 strains, and such increases were all significantly associated with a higher immune response to heterologous strains. Vaccination against the SWL4204/09 strain was associated with a poor response to the SWL185/18 strain (β-0·20, 95% CI -0·28 to -0·13; p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest low pre-existing immunity against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus among unvaccinated Chinese adult female and paediatric populations. This evidence, together with the rapid decay of maternal antibodies and the observed cross-reactivity among different A(H1N1)pdm09 strains, highlights the importance of accelerating maternal and paediatric influenza vaccination in China.

FUNDING

The Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Estimation of influenza incidence and analysis of epidemic characteristics from 2009 to 2022 in Zhejiang Province, China

Background

Influenza infection causes a huge burden every year, affecting approximately 8% of adults and approximately 25% of children and resulting in approximately 400,000 respiratory deaths worldwide. However, based on the number of reported influenza cases, the actual prevalence of influenza may be greatly underestimated. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence rate of influenza and determine the true epidemiological characteristics of this virus.

Methods

The number of influenza cases and the prevalence of ILIs among outpatients in Zhejiang Province were obtained from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System. Specimens were sampled from some cases and sent to laboratories for influenza nucleic acid testing. Random forest was used to establish an influenza estimation model based on the influenza-positive rate and the percentage of ILIs among outpatients. Furthermore, the moving epidemic method (MEM) was applied to calculate the epidemic threshold for different intensity levels. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the annual change in influenza incidence. The seasonal trends of influenza were detected by wavelet analysis.

Results

From 2009 to 2021, a total of 990,016 influenza cases and 8 deaths were reported in Zhejiang Province. The numbers of estimated influenza cases from 2009 to 2018 were 743,449, 47,635, 89,026, 132,647, 69,218, 190,099, 204,606, 190,763, 267,168 and 364,809, respectively. The total number of estimated influenza cases is 12.11 times the number of reported cases. The APC of the estimated annual incidence rate was 23.33 (95% CI: 13.2 to 34.4) from 2011 to 2019, indicating a constant increasing trend. The intensity levels of the estimated incidence from the epidemic threshold to the very high-intensity threshold were 18.94 cases per 100,000, 24.14 cases per 100,000, 141.55 cases per 100,000, and 309.34 cases per 100,000, respectively. From the first week of 2009 to the 39th week of 2022, there were a total of 81 weeks of epidemics: the epidemic period reached a high intensity in 2 weeks, the epidemic period was at a moderate intensity in 75 weeks, and the epidemic period was at a low intensity in 2 weeks. The average power was significant on the 1-year scale, semiannual scale, and 115-week scale, and the average power of the first two cycles was significantly higher than that of the other cycles. In the period from the 20th week to the 35th week, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the time series of influenza onset and the positive rate of pathogens, including A(H3N2), A (H1N1)pdm2009, B(Victoria) and B(Yamagata), were - 0.089 (p = 0.021), 0.497 (p < 0.001), -0.062 (p = 0.109) and - 0.084 (p = 0.029), respectively. In the period from the 36th week of the first year to the 19th week of the next year, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the time series of influenza onset and the positive rate of pathogens, including A(H3N2), A (H1N1)pdm2009, B(Victoria) and B(Yamagata), were 0.516 (p < 0.001), 0.148 (p < 0.001), 0.292 (p < 0.001) and 0.271 (p < 0.001), respectively.

Conclusion

The disease burden of influenza has been seriously underestimated in the past. An appropriate method for estimating the incidence rate of influenza may be to comprehensively consider the influenza-positive rate as well as the percentage of ILIs among outpatients. The intensity level of the estimated incidence from the epidemic threshold to the very high-intensity threshold was calculated, thus yielding a quantitative standard for judging the influenza prevalence level in the future. The incidence of influenza showed semi-annual peaks in Zhejiang Province, including a main peak from December to January of the next year followed by a peak in summer. Furthermore, the driving factors of the influenza peaks were preliminarily explored. While the peak in summer was mainly driven by pathogens of A(H3N2), the peak in winter was alternately driven by various pathogens. Our research suggests that the government urgently needs to address barriers to vaccination and actively promote vaccines through primary care providers.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Notifiable Respiratory Infectious Diseases in Mainland China from 2010 to 2018

Respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) pose threats to people's health, some of which are serious public health problems. The aim of our study was to explore epidemic situations regarding notifiable RIDs and the epidemiological characteristics of the six most common RIDs in mainland China. We first collected the surveillance data of all 12 statutory notifiable RIDs for 31 provinces in mainland China that reported between 2010 and 2018, and then the six most prevalent RIDs were selected to analyze their temporal, seasonal, spatiotemporal and population distribution characteristics. From 2010 to 2018, there were 13,985,040 notifiable cases and 25,548 deaths from RIDs in mainland China. The incidence rate of RIDs increased from 109.85/100,000 in 2010 to 140.85/100,000 in 2018. The mortality from RIDs ranged from 0.18/100,000 to 0.24/100,000. The most common RIDs in class B were pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), pertussis, and measles, while those in class C were seasonal influenza, mumps and rubella. From 2010 to 2018, the incidence rate of PTB and rubella decreased; however, pertussis and seasonal influenza increased, with irregular changes in measles and mumps. The mortality from PTB increased from 2015 to 2018, and the mortality from seasonal influenza changed irregularly. PTB was mainly prevalent among people over 15 years old, while the other five common RIDs mostly occurred among people younger than 15 years old. The incidence of the six common RIDs mostly occurred in winter and spring, and they were spatiotemporally clustered in different areas and periods. In conclusion, PTB, seasonal influenza and mumps remain as public health problems in China, suggesting that continuous government input, more precise interventions, and a high-tech digital/intelligent surveillance and warning system are required to rapidly identify emerging events and timely response.

Influenza and Universal Vaccine Research in China

Influenza viruses usually cause seasonal influenza epidemics and influenza pandemics, resulting in acute respiratory illness and, in severe cases, multiple organ complications and even death, posing a serious global and human health burden. Compared with other countries, China has a large population base and a large number of influenza cases and deaths. Currently, influenza vaccination remains the most cost-effective and efficient way to prevent and control influenza, which can significantly reduce the risk of influenza virus infection and serious complications. The antigenicity of the influenza vaccine exhibits good protective efficacy when matched to the seasonal epidemic strain. However, when influenza viruses undergo rapid and sustained antigenic drift resulting in a mismatch between the vaccine strain and the epidemic strain, the protective effect is greatly reduced. As a result, the flu vaccine must be reformulated and readministered annually, causing a significant drain on human and financial resources. Therefore, the development of a universal influenza vaccine is necessary for the complete fight against the influenza virus. By statistically analyzing cases related to influenza virus infection and death in China in recent years, this paper describes the existing marketed vaccines, vaccine distribution and vaccination in China and summarizes the candidate immunogens designed based on the structure of influenza virus, hoping to provide ideas for the design and development of new influenza vaccines in the future.

The Epidemiology of Influenza and the Associated Vaccines Development in China: A Review

Influenza prevention and control has been one of the biggest challenges encountered in the public health domain. The vaccination against influenza plays a pivotal role in the prevention of influenza, particularly for the elderly and small children. According to the epidemiology of influenza in China, the nation is under a heavy burden of this disease. Therefore, as a contribution to the prevention and control of influenza in China through the provision of relevant information, the present report discusses the production and batch issuance of the influenza vaccine, analysis of the vaccination status and vaccination rate of the influenza vaccine, and the development trend of the influenza vaccine in China.

Genomic Epidemiology of Seasonal Influenza Circulation in China During Prolonged Border Closure from 2020 to 2021

China experienced a resurgence of seasonal influenza activity throughout 2021 despite intermittent control measures and prolonged international border closure. We show genomic evidence for multiple A(H3N2), A(H1N1), and B/Victoria transmission lineages circulating over 3 years, with the 2021 resurgence mainly driven by two B/Victoria clades. Phylodynamic analysis revealed unsampled ancestry prior to widespread outbreaks in December 2020, showing that influenza lineages can circulate cryptically under non-pharmaceutical interventions enacted against COVID-19. Novel haemagglutinin gene mutations and altered age profiles of infected individuals were observed, and Jiangxi province was identified as a major source for nationwide outbreaks. Following major holiday periods, fluctuations in the effective reproduction number were observed, underscoring the importance of influenza vaccination prior to holiday periods or travel. Extensive heterogeneity in seasonal influenza circulation patterns in China determined by historical strain circulation indicates that a better understanding of demographic patterns is needed for improving effective controls.