Rapid shifts in the age-specific burden of malaria following successful control interventions in four regions of Uganda

Trend analysis of malaria surveillance data in West Wallaga, West Oromia, Ethiopia: a framework for planning and elimination

BACKGROUND

Although Ethiopia has made a remarkable progress towards malaria prevention and control, malaria remains one of the most devastating parasitic diseases affecting humans. However, the distribution and transmission of malaria varies across the country. The study aimed to describe 5 years of malaria distribution and magnitude within the West Wallaga Zone and its respective woredas.

METHODS

A retrospective cross-sectional study design was conducted from April 10, 2019 to May 2019. Surveillance data collected weekly for a 5-year (2014-2018) from health facilities and private clinics that were archived in zonal PHEM database were reviewed. The checklist contained variety of variables was developed to collect data. Descriptive analysis was conducted to determine the proportion of Plasmodium species, positivity rate, mortality and fatality rate, time trend, and admission status; and presented by text, tables and figures.

RESULTS

Of the total of 588,119 suspected malaria cases, 78,658 (43/1000 populations) were positive with average positivity rate of 13.4%. Among confirmed cases, 59,794 (75%) of cases were attributed to Plasmodium falciparum, 16,518 (20%) were Plasmodium vivax, and 2,360 (5%) were mixed infections. The maximum (145,091) and minimum (74,420) transmissions were reported in 2014 and 2018, respectively. There was seasonal variation in transmission; spring (from May to July) and also autumn seasons (from October to November) were found as malaria transmission peaks. Although incidence rate declined throughout the study period, the average annual incidence rate was 14.38 per 1000 populations. The average case fatality rate of 5 consecutive years was 12/78,658 (15/100,000) population.

CONCLUSION

Although the malaria prevalence was decreased, the mortality due to malaria was increased in the 5-year study period, and malaria is still among the major public health problems. The dominant species of malaria parasites were P. falciparum and P. vivax. Attention is needed in scaling-up vector control tools in high malaria transmission periods.

Conceptual risk assessment of mosquito population modification gene-drive systems to control malaria transmission: preliminary hazards list workshops

The field-testing and eventual adoption of genetically-engineered mosquitoes (GEMs) to control vector-borne pathogen transmission will require them meeting safety criteria specified by regulatory authorities in regions where the technology is being considered for use and other locales that might be impacted. Preliminary risk considerations by researchers and developers may be useful for planning the baseline data collection and field research used to address the anticipated safety concerns. Part of this process is to identify potential hazards (defined as the inherent ability of an entity to cause harm) and their harms, and then chart the pathways to harm and evaluate their probability as part of a risk assessment. The University of California Malaria Initiative (UCMI) participated in a series of workshops held to identify potential hazards specific to mosquito population modification strains carrying gene-drive systems coupled to anti-parasite effector genes and their use in a hypothetical island field trial. The hazards identified were placed within the broader context of previous efforts discussed in the scientific literature. Five risk areas were considered i) pathogens, infections and diseases, and the impacts of GEMs on human and animal health, ii) invasiveness and persistence of GEMs, and interactions of GEMs with target organisms, iii) interactions of GEMs with non-target organisms including horizontal gene transfer, iv) impacts of techniques used for the management of GEMs and v) evolutionary and stability considerations. A preliminary hazards list (PHL) was developed and is made available here. This PHL is useful for internal project risk evaluation and is available to regulators at prospective field sites. UCMI project scientists affirm that the subsequent processes associated with the comprehensive risk assessment for the application of this technology should be driven by the stakeholders at the proposed field site and areas that could be affected by this intervention strategy.

Severe malaria burden, clinical spectrum and outcomes at Apac district hospital, Uganda: a retrospective study of routine health facility-based data

BACKGROUND

Most data describing severe malaria (SM) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are from research settings outside disease endemic areas. Using routinely collected data from Apac District Hospital, this study aimed at determining the burden and clinical spectrum of severe malaria.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study that reviewed all paediatric admission records for malaria in the 24 months period from Jan 2019 to Dec 2020 at Apac District Hospital. Data on children aged 60 days to 12 years who at admission tested positive for malaria and fulfilled the World Health Organization clinical criteria for surveillance of severe malaria were abstracted using a customized proforma designed to capture variables on social demographic, clinical presentation, treatment, and outcomes. In addition, the tool included laboratory variables for complete blood counts, haemoglobin, and glucose levels. Data were analysed using STATA V15.0. The study had ethical approval from Mbale Regional Referral Hospital REC, Approval No. MRRH-REC 053/2019.

RESULTS

A total of 5631 admission records were retrieved for this study period. Of these, 3649 (64.8%) were malaria admissions and 3422/3649 were children below 12years, with only 1864 (54.5%) of children having complete data. Of the 1864 children, 745 (40.0%) fulfilled the severe malaria inclusion criteria. Of the 745 children, 51.4% (n = 381) were males. The median age at admission was 31 months (IQR = 17-60). The most common clinical presentations among children with severe malaria were fever 722 (97.3%), cough 478 (64.2%), and difficulty in breathing 122 (17.9%). The median length of hospital stay was 2 (IQR; 2-4) days and 133 (17.9%) had prolonged hospital stay (> 4 days). Factors independently associated with prolonged hospital stay were, presenting with difficulty in breathing, aOR 1.83 (95% CI 1.02-3.27, P = 0.042) and prostration aOR 8.47 (95% CI 1.94-36.99, P = 0.004). A majority of admitted children, 735 (98.7%) survived, while 10 (1.3%) died of SM.

CONCLUSION

A high proportion (40.0%) of malaria admissions were due to SM. Prolonged Hospital stay was associated with prostration and difficulty in breathing. Overall mortality was low, 1.3% compared to mortality in the previously reported series. This study was able to use routinely collected data to describe the burden and clinical spectrum of SM. Improvement in the quality of data from such settings would improve disease descriptions for policy, monitoring of epidemics, response to interventions and to inform research.

Malaria in adults after the start of Covid-19 pandemic: an analysis of admission trends, demographics, and outcomes in a tertiary hospital in the Gambia

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a major public health concern in The Gambia. The study assessed the trend of malaria admissions and outcome of adult patients admitted after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in a tertiary hospital in The Gambia.

METHODS

This was a retrospective hospital-based study and data was collected from the 18th October 2020 to 28th February 2023. Demographic data, clinical features, investigations, treatment, and outcomes were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 499 malaria cases were admitted to the hospital over the 29 months of the study period. Data from 320 (67.2% of the total cases) adult patients admitted into the internal medicine department were analysed. The median age was 22 years, range (15-90) and 189 (59.1%) cases were youth with a youth (15-24 years) to older adult (> 24 years) ratio of 1.4:1. The majority of the patients were male 199 (62.2) with a male to female ratio of 1.6:1. The total number of malaria cases admitted into the internal medicine department increased from 103 cases in 2021 to 182 cases in 2022and admission peaked in November in both years. The total number of admitted malaria cases during the peak of the malaria season also increased from 92 patients between September 2021 and December 2021 to 132 patients from September 2022 to December 2022.There was also an increase in both severe and uncomplicated malaria during the same period. The total mortality was 31 (9.7%) and the rate was similar in 2021 9 (8.7%) and 2022 15 (8.4%). Patients with impaired consciousness were more likely to die when compared to those without impaired consciousness [19 (23.6%) vs 12 (5%), p  ≤ 0.001]. Patients with acute kidney injury were also more likely to die when compared with those without acute kidney injury [10 (20.4%) vs 15 (7.7%), p = 0.009].

CONCLUSION

The findings show an emerging and consistent trend of malaria admissions and the outcome in the youth and older adult population after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in The Gambia. This, therefore, suggests the need for the implementation of targeted malaria prevention interventions in this population to further prevent the spread of the disease to the more vulnerable population.

Evolution of Partial Resistance to Artemisinins in Malaria Parasites in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Partial resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to the artemisinin component of artemisinin-based combination therapies, the most important malaria drugs, emerged in Southeast Asia and now threatens East Africa. Partial resistance, which manifests as delayed clearance after therapy, is mediated principally by mutations in the kelch protein K13 (PfK13). Limited longitudinal data are available on the emergence and spread of artemisinin resistance in Africa.

METHODS

We performed annual surveillance among patients who presented with uncomplicated malaria at 10 to 16 sites across Uganda from 2016 through 2022. We sequenced the gene encoding kelch 13 (pfk13) and analyzed relatedness using molecular methods. We assessed malaria metrics longitudinally in eight Ugandan districts from 2014 through 2021.

RESULTS

By 2021-2022, the prevalence of parasites with validated or candidate resistance markers reached more than 20% in 11 of the 16 districts where surveillance was conducted. The PfK13 469Y and 675V mutations were seen in far northern Uganda in 2016-2017 and increased and spread thereafter, reaching a combined prevalence of 10 to 54% across much of northern Uganda, with spread to other regions. The 469F mutation reached a prevalence of 38 to 40% in one district in southwestern Uganda in 2021-2022. The 561H mutation, previously described in Rwanda, was first seen in southwestern Uganda in 2021, reaching a prevalence of 23% by 2022. The 441L mutation reached a prevalence of 12 to 23% in three districts in western Uganda in 2022. Genetic analysis indicated local emergence of mutant parasites independent of those in Southeast Asia. The emergence of resistance was observed predominantly in areas where effective malaria control had been discontinued or transmission was unstable.

CONCLUSIONS

Data from Uganda showed the emergence of partial resistance to artemisinins in multiple geographic locations, with increasing prevalence and regional spread over time. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Sibling Species Composition and Susceptibility Status of Anopheles gambiae s.l. to Insecticides Used for Indoor Residual Spraying in Eastern Uganda

Background

Malaria remains one of the most critical disease causing morbidity and mortality in Uganda. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets are currently the predominant malaria vector control interventions. However, the emergence and spread of insecticide resistance among malaria vectors threaten the continued effectiveness of these interventions to control the disease, particularly in high transmission areas. To inform decisions on vector control, the current study evaluated the Anopheles malaria vector species and their susceptibility levels to 0.1% bendiocarb and 0.25% pirimiphos-methyl insecticides used in IRS intervention program in Namutumba district, Eastern Uganda.

Methods

Anopheles larvae were collected between March and May 2017 from different breeding sites in the parishes of Nsinze and Nawaikona in Nsinze sub-county and reared to adults to assess the susceptibility status of populations in the study area. Mosquitoes were identified using morphological keys and species-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays. Susceptibility tests were conducted on 2- to 5-day-old non-blood-fed adult female Anopheles that emerged using insecticide-impregnated papers with 0.1% bendiocarb and 0.25% pirimiphos-methyl following standard World Health Organization (WHO) insecticide susceptibility bioassays. A Log-probit regression model was used to derive the knock-down rates for 50% and 95% of exposed mosquitoes.

Results

A total of 700 mosquito larvae were collected from different breeding sites. Morphological identification showed that 500 individuals that emerged belonged to Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.), the main malaria vector. The PCR results showed that the dominant sibling species under the A. gambiae complex was Anopheles arabiensis 99.5% (395/397). WHO bioassay tests revealed that the population of mosquitoes exhibited high levels of susceptibility (24-hour post-exposure mortality 98-100%) to both insecticides tested. The median knock-down time, KDT₅₀, ranged from 6.6 to 81.4 minutes, while the KDT₉₅ ranged from 21.6 to 118.9 minutes for 0.25% pirimiphos-methyl. The KDT₅₀ for 0.1% bendiocarb ranged from 2.8 to 62.9 minutes, whereas the KDT₉₅ ranged from 36.0 to 88.5 minutes.

Conclusions

These findings indicate that bendiocarb and pirimiphos-methyl are still effective against the major malaria vector, A. arabiensis in Nsinze sub-county, Namutumba district, Uganda and can be effectively used for IRS. The study has provided baseline information on the insecticide susceptibility status on malaria vectors in the study area. However, routine continuous monitoring program of insecticide susceptibility and malaria vector composition is required so as to guide future decisions on insecticide use for IRS intervention toward malaria elimination and to track future changes in vector population.

Spatio-temporal modelling of routine health facility data for malaria risk micro-stratification in mainland Tanzania

As malaria transmission declines, the need to monitor the heterogeneity of malaria risk at finer scales becomes critical to guide community-based targeted interventions. Although routine health facility (HF) data can provide epidemiological evidence at high spatial and temporal resolution, its incomplete nature of information can result in lower administrative units without empirical data. To overcome geographic sparsity of data and its representativeness, geo-spatial models can leverage routine information to predict risk in un-represented areas as well as estimate uncertainty of predictions. Here, a Bayesian spatio-temporal model was applied on malaria test positivity rate (TPR) data for the period 2017-2019 to predict risks at the ward level, the lowest decision-making unit in mainland Tanzania. To quantify the associated uncertainty, the probability of malaria TPR exceeding programmatic threshold was estimated. Results showed a marked spatial heterogeneity in malaria TPR across wards. 17.7 million people resided in areas where malaria TPR was high (≥ 30; 90% certainty) in the North-West and South-East parts of Tanzania. Approximately 11.7 million people lived in areas where malaria TPR was very low (< 5%; 90% certainty). HF data can be used to identify different epidemiological strata and guide malaria interventions at micro-planning units in Tanzania. These data, however, are imperfect in many settings in Africa and often require application of geo-spatial modelling techniques for estimation.

Impact of population based indoor residual spraying with and without mass drug administration with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine on malaria prevalence in a high transmission setting: a quasi-experimental controlled before-and-after trial in northeastern Uganda

BACKGROUND

Declines in malaria burden in Uganda have slowed. Modelling predicts that indoor residual spraying (IRS) and mass drug administration (MDA), when co-timed, have synergistic impact. This study investigated additional protective impact of population-based MDA on malaria prevalence, if any, when added to IRS, as compared with IRS alone and with standard of care (SOC).

METHODS

The 32-month quasi-experimental controlled before-and-after trial enrolled an open cohort of residents (46,765 individuals, 1st enumeration and 52,133, 4th enumeration) of Katakwi District in northeastern Uganda. Consented participants were assigned to three arms based on residential subcounty at study start: MDA+IRS, IRS, SOC. IRS with pirimiphos methyl and MDA with dihydroartemisinin- piperaquine were delivered in 4 co-timed campaign-style rounds 8 months apart. The primary endpoint was population prevalence of malaria, estimated by 6 cross-sectional surveys, starting at baseline and preceding each subsequent round.

RESULTS

Comparing malaria prevalence in MDA+IRS and IRS only arms over all 6 surveys (intention-to-treat analysis), roughly every 6 months post-interventions, a geostatistical model found a significant additional 15.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): [13.7%, 17.5%], Z = 9.6, p = 5e-20) decrease in the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) due to MDA for all ages, a 13.3% reduction in under 5's (95% CI: [10.5%, 16.8%], Z = 4.02, p = 5e-5), and a 10.1% reduction in children 5-15 (95% CI: [8.5%, 11.8%], Z = 4.7, p = 2e-5). All ages residents of the MDA + IRS arm enjoyed an overall 80.1% reduction (95% CI: [80.0%, 83.0%], p = 0.0001) in odds of qPCR confirmed malaria compared with SOC residents. Secondary difference-in-difference analyses comparing surveys at different timepoints to baseline showed aOR (MDA + IRS vs IRS) of qPCR positivity between 0.28 and 0.66 (p < 0.001). Of three serious adverse events, one (nonfatal) was considered related to study medications. Limitations include the initial non-random assignment of study arms, the single large cluster per arm, and the lack of an MDA-only arm, considered to violate equipoise.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite being assessed at long time points 5-7 months post-round, MDA plus IRS provided significant additional protection from malaria infection over IRS alone. Randomized trials of MDA in large areas undergoing IRS recommended as well as cohort studies of impact on incidence.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial was retrospectively registered 11/07/2018 with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR201807166695568).

Asymptomatic malaria infection, associated factors and accuracy of diagnostic tests in a historically high transmission setting in Northern Uganda

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic malaria infections are important parasite reservoirs and could sustain transmission in the population, but they are often unreported. A community-based survey was conducted to investigate the prevalence and factors associated with asymptomatic malaria infections in a historically high transmission setting in northern Uganda.

METHODS

Using a cross-sectional design, 288 children aged 2-15 years were enrolled and tested for the presence of malaria parasites using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and blood smear microscopy between January to May 2022. Statistical analysis was performed using the exact binomial and Fisher's exact test with p ≤ 0.05 indicating significance. The logistic regression was used to explore factors associated with asymptomatic malaria infections.

RESULTS

Overall, the prevalence of asymptomatic infection was 34.7% (95% CI 29.2-40.5) with the highest observed in children 5-10 years 45.9% (95% CI 35.0-57.0). Gweri village accounted for 39.1% (95% CI 27.6-51.6) of malaria infections. Median parasite density was 1500 parasites/µl of blood. Plasmodium falciparum was the dominant species (86%) followed by Plasmodium malariae (5%). Factors associated with asymptomatic malaria infection were sleeping under mosquito net (Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 0.27; 95% CI 0.13-0.56), p = 0.001 and presence of village health teams (VHTs) (aOR 0.02; 95% CI 0.01-0.45), p = 0.001. Sensitivity and specificity were higher for the P. falciparum/pLDH RDTs compared to HRP2-only RDTs, 90% (95% CI 86.5-93.5) and 95.2% (95% CI 92.8-97.7), p = 0.001, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Asymptomatic malaria infections were present in the study population and this varied with place and person in the different age groups. Plasmodium falciparum was the dominant parasite species however the presence of P. malariae and Plasmodium ovale was observed, which may have implication for the choice and deployment of diagnostic tools. Individuals who slept under mosquito net or had presence of functional VHTs were less likely to have asymptomatic malaria infection. P.f/pLDH RDTs performed better than the routinely used HRP2 RDTs. In view of these findings, investigation and reporting of asymptomatic malaria reservoirs through community surveys is recommended for accurate disease burden estimate and better targeting of control.

LLIN Evaluation in Uganda Project (LLINEUP2)-Factors associated with coverage and use of long‑lasting insecticidal nets following the 2020-21 national mass distribution campaign: a cross-sectional survey of 12 districts

BACKGROUND

In 2020-2021, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) were distributed nationwide in Uganda during the COVID-19 pandemic. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 12 districts to evaluate the impact of the campaign 1-5 months after LLIN distribution.

METHODS

During April-May 2021, households were randomly selected from target areas (1-7 villages) surrounding 12 government-run health facilities established as Malaria Reference Centres; at least 50 households were enrolled per cluster. Outcomes included household ownership of LLINs distributed through the universal coverage campaign (UCC) (at least one UCC LLIN), adequate coverage of UCC LLINs (at least one UCC LLIN per 2 residents), and use of LLINs (resident slept under a LLIN the previous night). Multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify household- and individual-level factors associated with outcomes, controlling for clustering around health facilities.

RESULTS

In total, 634 households, with 3342 residents and 1631 bed-nets, were included. Most households (93.4%) owned at least 1 UCC LLIN, but only 56.8% were adequately covered by UCC LLINs. In an adjusted analysis, the factor most strongly associated with adequate coverage by UCC LLINs was fewer household residents (1-4 vs 7-14; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 12.96, 95% CI 4.76-35.26, p < 0.001; 5-6 vs 7-14 residents; aOR 2.99, 95% CI 1.21-7.42, p = 0.018). Of the 3166 residents of households that owned at least one UCC LLIN, only 1684 (53.2%) lived in adequately covered households; 89.9% of these used an LLIN the previous night, compared to 1034 (69.8%) of 1482 residents living in inadequately covered households. In an adjusted analysis, restricted to residents of inadequately covered households, LLIN use was higher in children under-five than those aged 5-15 years (aOR 3.04, 95% CI 2.08-4.46, p < 0.001), and higher in household heads than distantly-related residents (aOR 3.94, 95% CI 2.38-6.51, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Uganda's 2021-21 campaign was successful, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. In future campaigns, strategies should be adopted to ensure high LLIN coverage, particularly for larger households. A better understanding of the drivers of LLIN use within households is needed to guide future interventions, educational messages, and behaviour change communication strategies; school-aged children and distantly-related residents appear vulnerable and could be targeted.

Clinical manifestations and outcomes of severe malaria in adult patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in the Gambia

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a major public health concern in The Gambia. There is limited data on the clinical manifestation and outcome of severe malaria in adult patients in The Gambia. The study therefore assessed the clinical manifestations and outcome of severe malaria in adult patients admitted at the Edward Francis Small Teaching Hospital.

METHODS

The study retrospectively reviewed the records of all malaria patients admitted from 18th October 2020 to 2nd February 2022. Demographic data, clinical features, investigations, treatment, and outcomes were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 131 confirmed malaria patients were recruited into the study. The median age was 21 yrs, range (15-90) and most of them were within the youth age group (15-24yrs) 85 (64.9%). The majority of the patients were also male 88 (67.2%) with a male to female ratio of 2:1. The most common symptom at presentation was fever 119 (90.8%) and the most common sign was pallor 48 (36.6%). Seventy-six patients (58.1%) and 55 (41.9%) patients met the criteria for severe malaria and uncomplicated malaria diagnosis, respectively. The most common clinical feature amongst patients with severe malaria were impaired consciousness 34 (44.7%), severe anaemia 26 (34.2%) and acute kidney injury 20 (26.3%). Patients with severe malaria were younger with mean age of 22.9 vs. 29 yrs (p = 0.004), more likely to be referred from a lower-level health facility 62 (81.6%) vs. 34 (61.8%) (p = 0.012), to have a longer duration of admission (p = 0.024) and to die 13 (17.1%) vs. 0 (0%) (p = 0.001) as compared to patients with uncomplicated malaria. The total mortality was 13 (9.9%) and all the patients who died had severe malaria. Mortality was higher in patients with impaired consciousness 9 (26.5%) and there was a significant relationship between death and impaired consciousness 9 (69.3%) vs. 25 (21.4%) p = 0.001.

CONCLUSION

Severe malaria still affects young adults in an endemic area with significant mortality. This suggests the need for targeted malaria prevention, surveillance, case management and control strategies in this population group in The Gambia to help reduce morbidity and mortality of malaria.

Dry season prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in asymptomatic gambian children, with a comparative evaluation of diagnostic methods

BACKGROUND

Subclinical infection with Plasmodium falciparum remains highly prevalent, yet diagnosing these often low-density infections remains a challenge. Infections can be subpatent, falling below the limit of detection for conventional thick-film microscopy and rapid diagnostic testing (RDT). In this study, the prevalence of subclinical P. falciparum infections in school-aged children was characterised at the start of the dry season in the Upper River Region of The Gambia in 2017/2018, with a goal to also compare the utility of different diagnostic tools.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional survey of children living in 29 villages on the south bank of the Gambia river (median age of 10 years), matched microscopy, rapid diagnostic test (RDT, detecting histidine-rich protein 2) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR, targeting either 18S rRNA or var gene acidic terminal sequence) were used to determine the prevalence of patent and subpatent infections and to compare the performance of the different diagnostic methods.

RESULTS

The prevalence of var gene acidic terminal sequence (varATS) qPCR-detectable infections was 10.2% (141/1381) with a median density of 3.12 parasites/µL. Malaria prevalence was highly heterogeneous across the region, ranging from < 1% to ~ 40% prevalence in different village clusters. Compared to varATS, 18S rRNA PCR detected fewer low-density infections, with an assay sensitivity of 50% and specificity of 98.8%. Parasite prevalence in the cohort was 2.9% by microscopy and 1.5% by RDT. Compared to varATS qPCR, microscopy and RDT had sensitivities of 11.5% and 9.2%, respectively, although both methods were highly specific (> 98%). Samples that were positive by all three tests (varATS qPCR, RDT and microscopy) had significantly higher parasite densities (median = 1705 parasites/µL) than samples that were positive by varATS qPCR only (median = 2.4 parasites/µL).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of subclinical malaria infections in school-aged children were of extremely low parasite density and detectable only by ultra-sensitive PCR analysis. Understanding the duration of these low density infections, their physiological impact and their contribution to sustained parasite transmission is necessary to inform malaria elimination strategies.

Systematic identification of plausible pathways to potential harm via problem formulation for investigational releases of a population suppression gene drive to control the human malaria vector Anopheles gambiae in West Africa

BACKGROUND

Population suppression gene drive has been proposed as a strategy for malaria vector control. A CRISPR-Cas9-based transgene homing at the doublesex locus (dsxFCRISPRh) has recently been shown to increase rapidly in frequency in, and suppress, caged laboratory populations of the malaria mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae. Here, problem formulation, an initial step in environmental risk assessment (ERA), was performed for simulated field releases of the dsxFCRISPRh transgene in West Africa.

METHODS

Building on consultative workshops in Africa that previously identified relevant environmental and health protection goals for ERA of gene drive in malaria vector control, 8 potentially harmful effects from these simulated releases were identified. These were stratified into 46 plausible pathways describing the causal chain of events that would be required for potential harms to occur. Risk hypotheses to interrogate critical steps in each pathway, and an analysis plan involving experiments, modelling and literature review to test each of those risk hypotheses, were developed.

RESULTS

Most potential harms involved increased human (n = 13) or animal (n = 13) disease transmission, emphasizing the importance to subsequent stages of ERA of data on vectorial capacity comparing transgenics to non-transgenics. Although some of the pathways (n = 14) were based on known anatomical alterations in dsxFCRISPRh homozygotes, many could also be applicable to field releases of a range of other transgenic strains of mosquito (n = 18). In addition to population suppression of target organisms being an accepted outcome for existing vector control programmes, these investigations also revealed that the efficacy of population suppression caused by the dsxFCRISPRh transgene should itself directly affect most pathways (n = 35).

CONCLUSIONS

Modelling will play an essential role in subsequent stages of ERA by clarifying the dynamics of this relationship between population suppression and reduction in exposure to specific potential harms. This analysis represents a comprehensive identification of plausible pathways to potential harm using problem formulation for a specific gene drive transgene and organism, and a transparent communication tool that could inform future regulatory studies, guide subsequent stages of ERA, and stimulate further, broader engagement on the use of population suppression gene drive to control malaria vectors in West Africa.

Past eight-year malaria data in Gedeo zone, southern Ethiopia: trend, reporting-quality, spatiotemporal distribution, and association with socio-demographic and meteorological variables

Background

Informed decision making is underlined by all tiers in the health system. Poor data record system coupled with under- (over)-reporting of malaria cases affects the country’s malaria elimination activities. Thus, malaria data at health facilities and health offices are important particularly to monitor and evaluate the elimination progresses. This study was intended to assess overall reported malaria cases, reporting quality, spatiotemporal trends and factors associated in Gedeo zone, South Ethiopia.

Methods

Past 8 years retrospective data stored in 17 health centers and 5 district health offices in Gedeo Zone, South Ethiopia were extracted. Malaria cases data at each health center with sociodemographic information, between January 2012 and December 2019, were included. Meteorological data were obtained from the national meteorology agency of Ethiopia. The data were analyzed using Stata 13.

Results

A total of 485,414 suspected cases were examined for malaria during the previous 8 years at health centers. Of these suspects, 57,228 (11.79%) were confirmed malaria cases with an overall decline during the 8-year period. We noted that 3758 suspected cases and 467 confirmed malaria cases were not captured at the health offices. Based on the health centers records, the proportions of Plasmodium falciparum (49.74%) and P. vivax (47.59%) infection were nearly equivalent (p = 0.795). The former was higher at low altitudes while the latter was higher at higher altitudes. The over 15 years of age group accounted for 11.47% of confirmed malaria cases (p < 0.001). There was high spatiotemporal variation: the highest case record was during Belg (12.52%) and in Dilla town (18,150, 13.17%, p < 0.001) which is located at low altitude. Monthly rainfall and minimum temperature exhibited strong associations with confirmed malaria cases.

Conclusion

A notable overall decline in malaria cases was observed during the eight-year period. Both P. falciparum and P. vivax were found at equivalent endemicity level; hence control measures should continue targeting both species. The noticed under reporting, the high malaria burden in urban settings, low altitudes and Belg season need spatiotemporal consideration by the elimination program.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-05783-8.

Predictors of malaria rapid diagnostic test positivity in a high burden area of Paletwa Township, Chin State in Western Myanmar

Background

Despite major reductions in malaria burden across Myanmar, clusters of the disease continue to persist in specific subregions. This study aimed to assess the predictors of test positivity among people living in Paletwa Township of Chin State, an area of persistently high malaria burden.

Methods

Four villages with the highest malaria incidence from Paletwa Township were purposively selected. The characteristics of 1045 subjects seeking malaria diagnosis from the four assigned village health volunteers from January to December, 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Their household conditions and surroundings were also recorded using a checklist. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were applied to investigate potential associations between individual and household characteristics and malaria diagnosis.

Results

In 2017, the Paletwa township presented 20.9% positivity and an annual parasite index of 46.9 cases per 1000 people. Plasmodium falciparum was the predominant species and accounted for more than 80.0% of all infections. Among 1045 people presenting at a clinic with malaria symptoms, 31.1% were diagnosed with malaria. Predictors for test positivity included living in a hut [adjusted odds ratios (a OR): 2.3, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.2–4.6], owning farm animals (aOR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1–3.6), using non-septic type of toilets (aOR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1–8.4), presenting with fever (aOR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1–3.0), having a malaria episode within the last year (aOR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.4–5.8), traveling outside the village in the previous 14 days (aOR: 4.5, 95% CI: 1.5–13.4), and not using bed nets (a OR: 3.4, 95% CI: 2.3–5.1). There were no statistically significant differences by age or gender in this present analysis.

Conclusions

The results from this study, including a high proportion of P. falciparum infections, little difference in age, sex, or occupation, suggest that malaria is a major burden for these study villages. Targeted health education campaigns should be introduced to strengthen synchronous diagnosis-seeking behaviors, tighten treatment adherence, receiving a diagnosis after traveling to endemic regions, and using bed nets properly. We suggest increased surveillance, early diagnosis, and treatment efforts to control the disease and then to consider the local elimination.

Spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda using HMIS data from 2015 to 2019

BACKGROUND

As global progress to reduce malaria transmission continues, it is increasingly important to track changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Risk estimates for Africa have largely underutilized available health management information systems (HMIS) data to monitor trends. This study uses national HMIS data, together with environmental and geographical data, to assess spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence at facility catchment level in Uganda, over a recent 5-year period.

METHODS

Data reported by 3446 health facilities in Uganda, between July 2015 and September 2019, was analysed. To assess the geographic accessibility of the health facilities network, AccessMod was employed to determine a three-hour cost-distance catchment around each facility. Using confirmed malaria cases and total catchment population by facility, an ecological Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial-temporal Poisson model was fitted to generate monthly posterior incidence rate estimates, adjusted for caregiver education, rainfall, land surface temperature, night-time light (an indicator of urbanicity), and vegetation index.

RESULTS

An estimated 38.8 million (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 37.9-40.9) confirmed cases of malaria occurred over the period, with a national mean monthly incidence rate of 20.4 (95% CI: 19.9-21.5) cases per 1000, ranging from 8.9 (95% CI: 8.7-9.4) to 36.6 (95% CI: 35.7-38.5) across the study period. Strong seasonality was observed, with June-July experiencing highest peaks and February-March the lowest peaks. There was also considerable geographic heterogeneity in incidence, with health facility catchment relative risk during peak transmission months ranging from 0 to 50.5 (95% CI: 49.0-50.8) times higher than national average. Both districts and health facility catchments showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation; health facility catchments had global Moran's I = 0.3 (p < 0.001) and districts Moran's I = 0.4 (p < 0.001). Notably, significant clusters of high-risk health facility catchments were concentrated in Acholi, West Nile, Karamoja, and East Central - Busoga regions.

CONCLUSION

Findings showed clear countrywide spatial-temporal patterns with clustering of malaria risk across districts and health facility catchments within high risk regions, which can facilitate targeting of interventions to those areas at highest risk. Moreover, despite high and perennial transmission, seasonality for malaria incidence highlights the potential for optimal and timely implementation of targeted interventions.

Changing malaria fever test positivity among paediatric admissions to Tororo district hospital, Uganda 2012-2019

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) promotes long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) and indoor residual house-spraying (IRS) for malaria control in endemic countries. However, long-term impact data of vector control interventions is rarely measured empirically.

METHODS

Surveillance data was collected from paediatric admissions at Tororo district hospital for the period January 2012 to December 2019, during which LLIN and IRS campaigns were implemented in the district. Malaria test positivity rate (TPR) among febrile admissions aged 1 month to 14 years was aggregated at baseline and three intervention periods (first LLIN campaign; Bendiocarb IRS; and Actellic IRS + second LLIN campaign) and compared using before-and-after analysis. Interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) was used to determine the effect of IRS (Bendiocarb + Actellic) with the second LLIN campaign on monthly TPR compared to the combined baseline and first LLIN campaign periods controlling for age, rainfall, type of malaria test performed. The mean and median ages were examined between intervention intervals and as trend since January 2012.

RESULTS

Among 28,049 febrile admissions between January 2012 and December 2019, TPR decreased from 60% at baseline (January 2012-October 2013) to 31% during the final period of Actellic IRS and LLIN (June 2016-December 2019). Comparing intervention intervals to the baseline TPR (60.3%), TPR was higher during the first LLIN period (67.3%, difference 7.0%; 95% CI 5.2%, 8.8%, p < 0.001), and lower during the Bendiocarb IRS (43.5%, difference - 16.8%; 95% CI - 18.7%, - 14.9%) and Actellic IRS (31.3%, difference - 29.0%; 95% CI - 30.3%, - 27.6%, p < 0.001) periods. ITSA confirmed a significant decrease in the level and trend of TPR during the IRS (Bendicarb + Actellic) with the second LLIN period compared to the pre-IRS (baseline + first LLIN) period. The age of children with positive test results significantly increased with time from a mean of 24 months at baseline to 39 months during the final IRS and LLIN period.

CONCLUSION

IRS can have a dramatic impact on hospital paediatric admissions harbouring malaria infection. The sustained expansion of effective vector control leads to an increase in the age of malaria positive febrile paediatric admissions. However, despite large reductions, malaria test-positive admissions continued to be concentrated in children aged under five years. Despite high coverage of IRS and LLIN, these vector control measures failed to interrupt transmission in Tororo district. Using simple, cost-effective hospital surveillance, it is possible to monitor the public health impacts of IRS in combination with LLIN.