Identifying potential differences in cause-of-death coding practices across Russian regions

Risk of Developing Non-Cancerous Central Nervous System Diseases Due to Ionizing Radiation Exposure during Adulthood: Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses

Background: High-dose ionizing radiation (IR) (>0.5 Gy) is an established risk factor for cognitive impairments, but this cannot be concluded for low-to-moderate IR exposure (<0.5 Gy) in adulthood as study results are inconsistent. The objectives are to summarize relevant epidemiological studies of low-to-moderate IR exposure in adulthood and to assess the risk of non-cancerous CNS diseases. Methods: A systematic literature search of four electronic databases was performed to retrieve relevant epidemiological studies published from 2000 to 2022. Pooled standardized mortality ratios, relative risks, and excess relative risks (ERR) were estimated with a random effect model. Results: Forty-five publications were included in the systematic review, including thirty-three in the quantitative meta-analysis. The following sources of IR-exposure were considered: atomic bomb, occupational, environmental, and medical exposure. Increased dose-risk relationships were found for cerebrovascular diseases incidence and mortality (ERRpooled per 100 mGy = 0.04; 95% CI: 0.03−0.05; ERRpooled at 100 mGy = 0.01; 95% CI: −0.00−0.02, respectively) and for Parkinson’s disease (ERRpooled at 100 mGy = 0.11; 95% CI: 0.06−0.16); Conclusions: Our findings suggest that adult low-to-moderate IR exposure may have effects on non-cancerous CNS diseases. Further research addressing inherent variation issues is encouraged.

Public Health, Democracy, and Transition: Global Evidence and Post-Communism

Democracy is generally associated with governmental accountability, better public policy choices and public health. However, there is limited evidence about how political regime transition impacts public health. We use two samples of the states around the world to trace the impact of regime transition on public health: the first sample comprises 29 post-communist states, along with 20 consolidated democracies, for the period of 1970-2014; the second sample is a subsample of the same 29 post-communist states but only for the period of transition, 1990-2014. We find that the post-communist states experienced some decline in life expectancy in the first few years of transition (1990-1995). Yet, with a steady increase in the measure of democracy from 1995 onwards, life expectancy significantly improved and infant mortality decreased. Therefore, in the long run, democratization has had a positive impact on both the life expectancy and infant mortality of citizens of the post-communist states.

Accounting for misclassified and unknown cause of death data in vital registration systems for estimating trends in HIV mortality

INTRODUCTION

Misclassification of HIV deaths can substantially diminish the usefulness of cause of death data for decision-making. In this study, we describe the methods developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study to account for the misclassified cause of death data from vital registration systems for estimating HIV mortality in 132 countries and territories.

METHODS

The cause of death data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and official country-specific mortality databases. We implemented two steps to adjust the raw cause of death data: (1) redistributing garbage codes to underlying causes of death, including HIV/AIDS by applying methods, such as analysis of multiple cause data and proportional redistribution, and (2) reassigning HIV deaths misclassified as other causes to HIV/AIDS by examining the age patterns of underlying causes in location and years with and without HIV epidemics.

RESULTS

In 132 countries, during the period from 1990 to 2018, 1,848,761 deaths were reported as caused by HIV/AIDS. After garbage code redistribution in these 132 countries, this number increased to 4,165,015 deaths. An additional 1,944,291 deaths were added through correction of HIV deaths misclassified as other causes in 44 countries. The proportion of HIV deaths derived from garbage code redistribution decreased over time, from 0.4 in 1990 to 0.1 in 2018. The proportion of deaths derived from HIV misclassification correction peaked at 0.4 in 2006 and declined afterwards to 0.08 in 2018. The greatest contributors to garbage code redistribution were "immunodeficiency antibody" (ICD 9: 279-279.1; ICD 10: D80-D80.9) and "immunodeficiency other" (ICD 9: 279, 279.5-279.9; ICD 10: D83-D84.9, D89, D89.8-D89.9), which together contributed 77% of all redistributed deaths at their peak in 1995. Respiratory tuberculosis (ICD 9: 010-012.9; ICD 10: A10-A14, A15-A16.9) contributed the greatest proportion of all HIV misclassified deaths (25-62% per year) over the most years.

CONCLUSIONS

Correcting for miscoding and misclassification of cause of death data can enhance the utility of the data for analyzing trends in HIV mortality and tracking progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal targets.

History and current status of cancer registration in Russia

BACKGROUND

Russia, then part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (the USSR), introduced compulsory cancer registration in 1953, but a clear overall contemporary description of the cancer surveillance system in Russia is not available.

METHODS

We summarized historical landmarks and the development of the standards of classification and coding of neoplasms in Russia and described current population-based cancer registries' (PBCR) procedures and practices.

RESULTS

Cancer registration is organized according to the administrative division of the Russian Federation. More than 600,000 cases are registered annually. All medical facilities, without exception, are required to notify the PBCR about newly diagnosed cases, and each regional PBCR is responsible for registering all cancers diagnosed in citizens residing in the region. The data collection can be described as passive and exhaustive. Hematological malignancies, brain, and CNS tumors are often not referred to cancer hospitals in some regions, explaining the problems in registering these cancers.

CONCLUSION

Russia's cancer registration system is population-based, and practices seem to be generally internationally comparable. However, coding practices and national guidelines are still outdated and not up to the most recent international recommendations. Further analyses are needed to assess the comparability, validity, completeness, and timeliness of Russia's PBCRs data.

Health disparities in Russia at the regional and global scales

BACKGROUND

The capacity for health comparisons, including the accurate comparison of indicators, is necessary for a comprehensive evaluation of well-being in places where people live. An important issue is the assessment of within-country heterogeneity for geographically extensive countries. The aim of this study was to assess the spatial and temporal changes in health status in Russia and to compare these regional changes with global trends.

METHODS

The index, which considers the infant mortality rate and the male and female life expectancy at birth, was used for this purpose. Homogeneous territorial groups were identified using principal component analysis and multivariate ranking procedures. Trend analysis of individual indicators included in the index was also performed to assess the changes over the past 20 years (1990-2017).

RESULTS

The study indicated a trend towards convergence in health indicators worldwide, which is largely due to changes in infant mortality. It also revealed that the trend of increasing life expectancy in many regions of Russia is not statistically significant. Significant interregional heterogeneity of health status in Russia was identified according to the application of typological ranking. The regions were characterized by similar index values until the mid-1990s.

CONCLUSIONS

The strong spatial inequality in health of population was found in Russia. While many regions of Russia were comparable to the countries in the high-income group in terms of GDP, the progress in health was less pronounced. Perhaps this can be explained by intraregional inequality, expressed by significant fluctuations in income levels.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not applicable.

Validating reported cause of death using integrated electronic health records from a nation-wide database

BACKGROUND

To compare the underlying cause of death reported by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) with diagnoses in the electronic health records (EHR) of a fully integrated payer/provider healthcare system.

METHODS

Underlying cause of death was obtained from the CBS for deaths occurring during 2009-2012 of all Clalit Health Service members in Israel. The final cohort consisted of members who had complete medical records. The frequency of a supportive diagnosis in the EHR was reported for 10 leading causes of death (malignancies, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, kidney disease, septicemia, accidents, chronic lower respiratory disease, dementia and pneumonia and influenza).

RESULTS

Of the 45 680 members included in the study, the majority of deaths had at least one diagnosis in the EHR that could support the cause of death. The lowest frequency of supportive diagnosis was for septicemia (52.2%) and the highest was for malignancies (94.3%). Sensitivity analysis did not suggest an alternative explanation for the missing documentation.

CONCLUSIONS

The underlying cause of death coded by the CBS is often supported by diagnoses in Clalit's EHR. Exceptions are septicemia or accidents that cannot be anticipated from a patient's EHR, and dementia which may be under-reported.

Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality

BACKGROUND

Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments.

METHODS

We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings.

RESULTS

The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD; these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge.

Mortality due to garbage codes in Brazilian municipalities: differences in rate estimates by the direct and Bayesian methods from 2015 to 2017

OBJECTIVE

To generate estimates of mortality rates due to garbage codes (GC) for Brazilian municipalities by comparing the direct and the Bayesian methods, based on deaths registered in the Mortality Information System (SIM) between 2015 and 2017.

METHODS

Data from the SIM were used. The analysis was performed in groups of GC levels 1 and 2, levels 3 and 4, and total GC. Mortality rates were estimated directly and also according to the Bayesian method by applying the Empirical Bayesian Estimator.

RESULTS

About 38% of GC were estimated and regional differences in mortality rates were observed, higher in the Northeast and Southeast and lower in the South and Midwest regions. The Southeast presented similar rates for the two analyzed groups of GC. The smallest differences between direct and Bayesian method estimates were observed in large cities with a population over 500 thousand inhabitants. Municipalities in the north of the state of Minas Gerais and those in the states of Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Bahia presented high rates at levels 1 and 2.

CONCLUSION

There are differences in the quality of the definition of the underlying causes of death, even with the use of Bayesian methodology, which assists in smoothing the rates. The quality of the definition of causes of death is important, as they are associated with the access to and quality of healthcare services and support health planning.

Low- and moderate-dose non-cancer effects of ionizing radiation in directly exposed individuals, especially circulatory and ocular diseases: a review of the epidemiology

PURPOSE

There are well-known correlations between high and moderate doses (>0.5 Gy) of ionizing radiation exposure and circulatory system damage, also between radiation and posterior subcapsular cataract. At lower dose correlations with circulatory disease are emerging in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in some occupationally exposed groups, and are still to some extent controversial. Heterogeneity in excess relative risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies at low (<0.1 Gy) and at low-moderate (>0.1 Gy, <0.5 Gy) doses may result from confounding and other types of bias, and effect modification by established risk factors. There is also accumulating evidence of excess cataract risks at lower dose and low dose rate in various cohorts. Other ocular endpoints, specifically glaucoma and macular degeneration have been little studied. In this paper, we review recent epidemiological findings, and also discuss some of the underlying radiobiology of these conditions. We briefly review some other types of mainly neurological nonmalignant disease in relation to radiation exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

We document statistically significant excess risk of the major types of circulatory disease, specifically ischemic heart disease and stroke, in moderate- or low-dose exposed groups, with some not altogether consistent evidence suggesting dose-response non-linearity, particularly for stroke. However, the patterns of risk reported are not straightforward. We also document evidence of excess risks at lower doses/dose-rates of posterior subcapsular and cortical cataract in the Chernobyl liquidators, US Radiologic Technologists and Russian Mayak nuclear workers, with fundamentally linear dose-response. Nuclear cataracts are less radiogenic. For other ocular endpoints, specifically glaucoma and macular degeneration there is very little evidence of effects at low doses; radiation-associated glaucoma has been documented only for doses >5 Gy, and so has the characteristics of a tissue reaction. There is some evidence of neurological detriment following low-moderate dose (∼0.1-0.2 Gy) radiation exposure in utero or in early childhood.

Linking death registration and survey data: Procedures and cohort profile for The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA)

Background: Research on mortality at the population level has been severely restricted by an absence of linked death registration and survey data in Ireland. We describe the steps taken to link death registration information with survey data from a nationally representative prospective study of community-dwelling older adults. We also provide a profile of decedents among this cohort and compare mortality rates to population-level mortality data. Finally, we compare the utility of analysing underlying versus contributory causes of death. Methods: Death records were obtained for 779 and linked to individual level survey data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).   Results: Overall, 9.1% of participants died during the nine-year follow-up period and the average age at death was 75.3 years. Neoplasms were identified as the underlying cause of death for 37.0%; 32.9% of deaths were attributable to diseases of the circulatory system; 14.4% due to diseases of the respiratory system; while the remaining 15.8% of deaths occurred due to all other causes. Mortality rates among younger TILDA participants closely aligned with those observed in the population but TILDA mortality rates were slightly lower in the older age groups. Contributory cause of death provides similar estimates as underlying cause when we examined the association between smoking and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Conclusions: This new data infrastructure provides many opportunities to contribute to our understanding of the social, behavioural, economic, and health antecedents to mortality and to inform public policies aimed at addressing inequalities in mortality and end-of-life care.

Uncertainty in classification of death from fatal myocardial infarction: A nationwide analysis of regional variation in incidence and diagnostic support

AIMS

The usefulness of mortality statistics relies on the validity of death certificate diagnosis. However, diagnosing the causal sequence of conditions leading to death is not simple. We examined diagnostic support for fatal acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and investigated its association with regional variation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From Danish nationwide registers, we identified the study population (N = 3,244,051) of whom 36,669 individuals were recorded with AMI as the underlying cause-of-death between 2002 and 2015. We included clinical diagnoses, procedures, and claimed prescriptions related to atherosclerotic disease to evaluate the level of diagnostic support for fatal AMI in three diagnostic groups (Definite; Plausible; Uncertain). Adjusted mortality rates, rate ratios, and odds ratios were estimated for each AMI category, stratified by hospital region using multivariable regression models. More than one-third (N = 12,827, 35%) of deaths reported as fatal AMI had uncertain diagnostic support. The largest regional variation in AMI mortality rate ratios, varying from 1.16 (95%CI:1.02;1.31) to 1.62 (95%CI:1.43;1.83), was found among cases with uncertain diagnostic supportive data. Substantial inter-regional differences in the degree to which death occurs outside hospital [OR: 1.01 (95%CI:0.92;1.12) - 1.49 (95%CI:1.36;1.63)] and general practitioners determining the cause-of-death at home were present. Minor regional differences [OR: 0.96 (95%CI:0.85;1.07) - 1.16 (95%CI:1.04;1.29)] in in-hospital AMI mortality were observed.

CONCLUSION

There is significant regional variation associated with recording AMI as a cause-of-death. This variation is predominately based on death certificate diagnoses without diagnostic supportive evidence. Studies of fatal AMI should include a stratification on supportive evidence of the diagnosis.

Linking death registration and survey data: Procedures and cohort profile for The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing

Background: Research on mortality at the population level has been severely restricted by an absence of linked death registration and survey data in Ireland. We describe the steps taken to link death registration information with survey data from a nationally representative prospective study of community-dwelling older adults. We also provide a profile of decedents among this cohort and compare mortality rates to population-level mortality data. Finally, we compare the utility of analysing underlying versus contributory causes of death. Methods: Death records were obtained for 779 (90.3% of all confirmed deaths at that time) and linked to individual level survey data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).   Results: Overall, 9.1% of participants died during the nine-year follow-up period and the average age at death was 75.3 years. Neoplasms were identified as the underlying cause of death for 37.0%; 32.9% of deaths were attributable to diseases of the circulatory system; 14.4% due to diseases of the respiratory system; while the remaining 15.8% of deaths occurred due to all other causes. Mortality rates among younger TILDA participants closely aligned with those observed in the population but TILDA mortality rates were slightly lower in the older age groups. Contributory cause of death provides similar estimates as underlying cause when we examined the association between smoking and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Conclusions: This new data infrastructure provides many opportunities to contribute to our understanding of the social, behavioural, economic, and health antecedents to mortality and to inform public policies aimed at addressing inequalities in mortality and end-of-life care.

Comparison of Two Information Sources for Cause-of-Death Follow-up in the Russian Federation: The Asbest Chrysotile Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The Asbest chrysotile cohort was set up in Asbest town, Sverdlovsk oblast, Russian Federation, among the current and former workforce of the world's largest operating chrysotile mine and its processing mills, to investigate cancer risk in relation to occupational exposure to chrysotile.

OBJECTIVES

The cohort of 35,837 people was followed-up for mortality using cause-of-death information from official death certificates issued by the Civil Act Registration Office (ZAGS) of Sverdlovsk oblast from 1976 to 2015. Data were also retrieved from the electronic cause-of-death registry of the Medical Information Analytical Centre (MIAC) of Sverdlovsk oblast, which was launched in 1990 and operates independently of ZAGS. The objectives were to compare the completeness of record linkage (RL) with ZAGS and with MIAC, and to compare the agreement of cause-of-death information obtained from ZAGS and from MIAC, with a focus on malignant neoplasms.

METHODS

RL completeness of identifying cohort members in ZAGS and in MIAC was compared for the period 1990 to 2015. In the next step, for the comparison of the retrieved cause-of-death information, 5,463 deaths (1,009 from cancer) were used that were registered in 2002 to 2015, when causes of death were coded using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th revision (ICD-10) nomenclature by MIAC. For ZAGS, original cause-of-death text from the death certificates was obtained and then coded according to ICD-10 by the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization (IARC/WHO). Agreement was evaluated at various levels of detail, and reasons for any disagreements between the MIAC and the IARC/WHO ICD-10-coded cancer diagnosis were systematically explored.

RESULTS

A total of 10,886 deaths were obtained from all avenues of follow-up for the period 1990 to 2015 in the cohort; 10,816 (99.4%) of these were found in ZAGS. This percentage was 88.3% if only automated deterministic RL was used and 99.4% when deterministic RL was complemented with manual searches of cohort members. Comparison of the cause-of-death information showed agreement of 97.9% at the ICD-10 main group level between ZAGS (coded by IARC/WHO) and MIAC. Of 1,009 cancer deaths, 679 (67.3%) cases had identical coding, 258 (25.6%) cases corresponded at the three-character ICD-10 level, 36 (3.6%) had codes that were within the same anatomical or morphological cluster, and for only 36 (3.6%) cases were major discrepancies identified. Altogether, the agreement between IARC/WHO coding of cause-of-death information from ZAGS and MIAC coding of malignant neoplasms was therefore 96.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

RL completeness and agreement of cause-of-death information obtained from ZAGS and from MIAC were both very high. This is reassuring for the quality of cancer mortality follow-up of the Asbest chrysotile cohort. For future epidemiological studies in the Russian Federation, ZAGS appears to be a reliable information source for mortality follow-up, if the automated RL is complemented with manual searches of cohort members. MIAC is a good resource for prospective studies.

Leading causes of death of women of reproductive age in the Republic of Georgia: findings from the National Reproductive Age Mortality Survey (2014)

PURPOSE

An understanding of women's health problems during the reproductive years, based on reliable cause-of-death data, is of critical importance to avoid premature female mortality. This study aimed to investigate mortality levels, cause-specific patterns, and trends in women of reproductive age in Georgia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The National Reproductive Age Mortality Survey (2014) was conducted to identify all causes of death for women aged 15-49 years in 2012. The leading causes were compared with those in 2006, using directly age-standardized death rates (ASDRs). The accuracy of official cause-of-death data was assessed against verbal autopsy (VA) diagnoses, using kappa statistics, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and misclassification analyses.

RESULTS

Of 913 eligible deaths, VAs were completed for 878 deaths. Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) were the dominant causes of death (69.6% or 53.1/100,000), with cancer taking a major toll (45.2% or 34.5/100,000), followed by injuries (18.6% or 14.2/100,000). Breast cancer (12.5%), road injuries (9.1%), cervical cancer (6.5%), cerebrovascular diseases (5.2%), uterine cancer (4.1%), brain cancer (3.4%), suicide (3.1%), stomach cancer (3.0%), maternal disorders (2.6%), and liver cirrhosis (2.2%) contributed to the 10 leading specific causes of death, with the majority being substantially underreported in official statistics. This was primarily due to a significantly higher proportion (84%, p<0.05) of deaths routinely assigned ill-defined codes. Since 2006, statistically significant changes in ASDRs, with declines, were observed only for undetermined causes (40%, p<0.05) and ovarian cancer (54%, p<0.05); ovarian cancer and tuberculosis were replaced by stomach cancer and liver cirrhosis in the top 10 cause-of-death list.

CONCLUSION

NCDs continue to be the major health threats for Georgian women of reproductive age. The VA method proved a feasible tool to yield essential cause-of-death information for this population. Further research is needed to inform national health promotion and disease prevention interventions to be focused on NCDs and reproductive health needs with an integrated approach.

Breast and cervical cancer incidence and mortality trends in Russia 1980-2013

BACKGROUND

Breast and cervical cancer are among the leading causes of preventable cancer deaths in women in Russia. The aim of this study is to analyze changes in breast and cervical cancer incidence and mortality trends using data from the Russian State Cancer Registry.

METHODS

The age-standardized rates of cervical cancer incidence (1993-2013) and mortality (1980-2013) were analyzed using piecewise linear regression. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the temporal effects and provide future predictions.

RESULTS

Breast and cervical cancer incidence rates uniformly increased over two decades from 33.0 to 47.0 per 100,000 and from 10.6 to 14.2 per 100,000, respectively. Breast cancer mortality rates however declined from 17.6 to 15.7 in 2013, while cervical cancer mortality increased steadily from 5.6 to 6.7. Breakpoints in the risk occurred in cohorts born 1937-1953, indicating a recent generational decrease in breast cancer mortality, but a concomitant increase in cervical cancer. Cervical cancer has already surpassed breast cancer in terms of years of life lost (YLL) (23.4 per death vs 18.5 in 2009-2013), while future projections suggest that the annual YLL could reach 1.2 million for cervical cancer and (decline to) 1.8 million for breast cancer by the year 2030.

CONCLUSION

The temporal patterns of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Russia are in line with other countries in Europe, although cervical cancer rates and the risk of occurrence in recent generations is rapidly increasing; these trends underscore the need to place immediate priority in national cervical vaccination and screening programs.

Factors associated with unspecified and ill-defined causes of death in the State of Amazonas, Brazil, from 2006 to 2012

This study aimed to investigate factors associated with unspecified and ill-defined causes of death in the State of Amazonas (AM), Brazil. This is a cross-sectional study on 90,439 non-fetal deaths of residents in AM from 2006 to 2012. The hierarchical multinomial logistic model estimated odds ratios of unspecified and ill-defined causes of death. Ill-defined and unspecified causes of death proportional mortality was, respectively, 16.6% and 9.1%. Ill-defined causes showed a decreasing trend over the years, while unspecified causes only decreased in the last two years. Unspecified causes of death were associated with residence and death outside the capital, public roads, female gender, age group 10-49 years, brown skin color and when certified by forensic doctors. Ill-defined causes of death were associated with residence and occurrence outside capital, at home, ages 40 years and older, non-whites, not being single, low schooling, under medical care and when examiner was unknown. Ill-defined and unspecified cause mortality in the State of Amazonas decreased between 2006 and 2012 in AM and was associated with space and time, demographic and socioeconomic factors and medical care at the moment of death.

Convergence or Divergence? Life Expectancy Patterns in Post-communist Countries, 1959-2010

In the 1960s and 1970s, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union experienced an unanticipated stagnation in the process of mortality reduction that was accelerating in the west. This was followed by even starker fluctuations and overall declines in life expectancy during the 1980s and 1990s. We identify statistically the extent to which, since the 1990s, the countries of the post-communist region have converged as a group towards other regional or cross-regional geopolitical blocks, or whether there are now multiple steady-states ('convergence clubs') emerging among these countries. We apply a complex convergence club methodology, including a recursive analysis, to data on 30 OECD countries (including 11 post-communist countries) drawn from the Human Mortality Database and spanning the period 1959-2010. We find that, rather than converging uniformly on western life expectancy levels, the post-communist countries have diverged into multiple clubs, with the lowest seemingly stuck in low-level equilibria, while the best performers (e.g. Czech Republic) show signs of catching-up with the leading OECD countries. As the post-communist period has progressed, the group of transition countries themselves has become more heterogeneous and it is noticeable that distinctive gender and age patterns have emerged. We are the first to employ an empirical convergence club methodology to help understand the complex long-run patterns of life expectancy within the post-communist region, one of very few papers to situate such an analysis in the context of the OECD countries, and one of relatively few to interpret the dynamics over the long-term.

Benchmarking life expectancy and cancer mortality: global comparison with cardiovascular disease 1981-2010

Objective To quantify the impact of cancer (all cancers combined and major sites) compared with cardiovascular disease (CVD) on longevity worldwide during 1981-2010.Design Retrospective demographic analysis using aggregated data.Setting National civil registration systems in member states of the World Health Organization.Participants 52 populations with moderate to high quality data on cause specific mortality.Main outcome measures Disease specific contributions to changes in life expectancy in ages 40-84 (LE40-84) over time in populations grouped by two levels of Human Development Index (HDI) values.Results Declining CVD mortality rates during 1981-2010 contributed to, on average, over half of the gains in LE40-84; the corresponding gains were 2.3 (men) and 1.7 (women) years, and 0.5 (men) and 0.8 (women) years in very high and medium and high HDI populations, respectively. Declines in cancer mortality rates contributed to, on average, 20% of the gains in LE40-84, or 0.8 (men) and 0.5 (women) years in very high HDI populations, and to over 10% or 0.2 years (both sexes) in medium and high HDI populations. Declining lung cancer mortality rates brought about the largest LE40-84 gain in men in very high HDI populations (up to 0.7 years in the Netherlands), whereas in medium and high HDI populations its contribution was smaller yet still positive. Among women, declines in breast cancer mortality rates were largely responsible for the improvement in longevity, particularly among very high HDI populations (up to 0.3 years in the United Kingdom). In contrast, losses in LE40-84 were observed in many medium and high HDI populations as a result of increasing breast cancer mortality rates.Conclusions The control of CVD has led to substantial gains in LE40-84 worldwide. The inequality in improvement in longevity attributed to declining cancer mortality rates reflects inequities in implementation of cancer control, particularly in less resourced populations and in women. Global actions are needed to revitalize efforts for cancer control, with a specific focus on less resourced countries.

Radiation and circulatory disease

Exposure to therapeutic doses of ionizing radiation is associated with damage to the heart and coronary arteries. However, only recently have studies with high-quality individual dosimetry data allowed this risk to be quantified while also adjusting for concomitant chemotherapy, and medical and lifestyle risk factors. At lower levels of exposure the evidence is less clear. In this article I review radiation-associated risks of circulatory disease in groups treated with radiotherapy for malignant and non-malignant disease, and in occupationally- or environmentally-exposed groups receiving rather lower levels of radiation dose, also for medical diagnostic purposes. Results of a meta-analysis suggest that excess relative risks per unit dose for various types of heart disease do not exhibit statistically significant (p>0.2) heterogeneity between studies. Although there are no marked discrepancies between risks derived from the high-dose therapeutic and medical diagnostic studies and from the moderate/low dose occupational and environmental studies, at least for ischemic heart disease and stroke there are indications of larger risks per unit dose for lower dose rate and fractionated exposures. Risks for stroke and other types of circulatory disease are significantly more variable (p<0.0001), possibly resulting from confounding and effect-modification by well known (but unobserved) risk factors. Adjustment for any of mean dose, dose fractionation or age at exposure results in the residual heterogeneity for cerebrovascular disease becoming non-significant. The review provides strong evidence in support of a causal association between both low and high dose radiation exposure and most types of circulatory disease.