A comprehensive analysis on child mortality and its determinants in Bangladesh using frailty models

Factors associated with under-five mortality in Rwanda: An analysis of the Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2020

Despite global and Rwandan progress in reducing under-five mortality, the risk of children dying before their fifth birthday persists, necessitating intensified research on determinants. Thus, this study analyzed the birth history data to shed light on the underlying causes of under-five mortality in Rwanda. The study is a secondary analysis of data sourced from the 2020 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (RDHS) cross-sectional design. Using SPSS, the data was cleaned, recoded, and weighted, with descriptive and inferential statistics applied. The dependent variable was the child's living status, while independent variables included socio-demographic, media exposure status of mothers, child, and environmental factors. A total of 10267 under-five children of all interviewed mothers were included in the final analysis, of which 12.3% (1260) died. Maternal age (25-34 years: AOR = 1.514, 95% CI = 1.130-2.029, p = 0.005; 45+: AOR = 13.226, 95% CI = 9.253-18.905, p<0.001), occupational status (agricultural workers and other services), and three or more births within five years (AOR = 1.895, 95% CI = 1.433-2.508, p<0.001) significantly increase the risk of under-five mortality. Conversely, maternal education (primary: AOR = 0.821, p = 0.023; secondary: AOR = 0.533, p<0.001; higher: AOR = 0.365, p = 0.010) and higher wealth indexes (middle: AOR = 0.743, p = 0.001; rich: AOR = 0.612, p<0.001), as well as current breastfeeding (AOR = 0.524, 95% CI = 0.455-0.603, p-value <0.001), are associated with lower under-five mortality. Child sex significantly impacts under-five mortality (AOR = 0.873, 95% CI = 0.770-0.991, p = 0.035), favoring females over males. Conversely, multiple birth type children face higher under-five mortality (AOR = 3.541, 95% CI = 2.727-4.599, p<0.001) compared to singletons. Children in the northern (AOR = 1.478, 95% CI = 1.086-2.011, p = 0.013) and eastern (AOR = 1.470, 95% CI = 1.097-1.971, p = 0.010) regions are more susceptible to mortality compared to those in the central (Kigali) region. Additionally, under-five mortality is higher when using water from tanks and other sources (AOR = 2.240, 95% CI = 1.471-3.411, p<0.001) than piped water. This study identifies crucial factors linked to under-five mortality, underscoring the importance of prioritizing them in interventions to enhance Rwandan under-five survival rates.

Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution- Projection of the under-5 mortality attributable to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) in South Asia

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a leading health risk factor for children under- 5 years, especially in developing countries. South Asia is a PM2.5 hotspot, where climate change, a potential factor affecting PM2.5 pollution, adds a major challenge. However, limited evidence is available on under-5 mortality attributable to PM2.5 under different climate change scenarios. This study aimed to project under-5 mortality attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 under seven air pollution and climate change mitigation scenarios in South Asia. We used a concentration-risk function obtained from a previous review to project under-5 mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5. With a theoretical minimum risk exposure level of 2.4 μg/m3, this risk function was linked to gridded annual PM2.5 concentrations from atmospheric modeling to project under-5 mortality from 2010 to 2049 under different climate change mitigation scenarios. The scenarios were developed from the Aim/Endues global model based on end-of-pipe (removing the emission of air pollutants at the source, EoP) and 2 °C target measures. Our results showed that, in 2010-2014, about 306.8 thousand under-5 deaths attributable to PM2.5 occurred in South Asia under the Reference (business as usual) scenario. The number of deaths was projected to increase in 2045-2049 by 36.6% under the same scenario and 7.7% under the scenario where EoP measures would be partially implemented by developing countries (EoPmid), and was projected to decrease under other scenarios, with the most significant decrease (81.2%) under the scenario where EoP measures would be fully enhanced by all countries along with the measures to achieve 2 °C target (EoPmaxCCSBLD) across South Asia. Country-specific projections of under-5 mortality varied by country. The current emission control strategy would not be sufficient to reduce the number of deaths in South Asia. Robust climate change mitigation and air pollution control policy implementation is required.

Suboptimal child healthcare practices and the development of multiple infectious diseases in children aged 24-59 months

Background

Infections continue to be a major cause of death among children under the age of five worldwide. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with the development of multiple infectious diseases in children aged 24-59 months in Indonesia.

Methods

Data from the 2018 Basic Health Research conducted by the Ministry of Health, Republic of Indonesia, were used. Information from 39,948 children aged 24-59 months was analyzed. The outcome variable was the development of multiple infectious diseases, that is, acute respiratory infections, pneumonia, pulmonary tuberculosis, diarrhea, and hepatitis, in the month before the survey. Factors significantly associated with multiple types of infectious diseases were examined using logistic regression.

Results

The study found that 76.6% of children aged 24 to 59 months in Indonesia had at least one type of infectious disease. The likelihood of developing multiple types of infectious diseases increased in children whose parents did not practice appropriate handwashing with soap and running water [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.16, p < 0.001], those who received supplemental food (aOR = 1.38, p < 0.001), those with poor nutritional status (aOR = 1.12, p < 0.001), and those living in urban areas (aOR = 1.07, p = 0.045).

Conclusion

Improving caregivers' awareness of adequate child healthcare practices, in addition to nutrition-sensitive and specific interventions to improve children's nutritional status, is required to prevent children from contracting multiple types of infectious diseases.

Neonatal and Postneonatal Death Clustering Among Siblings in Bangladesh: Evidence from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018

Despite knowledge of neonatal and postneonatal mortality determinants in Bangladesh, some families continue to lose a larger share of children, a phenomenon known as early-life mortality clustering. This study uses the random intercept Weibull survival regression model to explore the correlation of mortality risk among siblings at the family (or, mother) and community levels. Utilizing the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018, we found evidence of death scarring, where children whose previous sibling was not alive at the time of conception had significantly higher odds of neonatal mortality. Moreover, the neonatal (and postneonatal) mortality hazard was highest for children with a birth interval of fewer than 19 months, corresponding to the preceding sibling. The intraclass correlation coefficient's statistically significant values show that neonatal and postneonatal mortality risk is correlated among children of the same family and community. The findings suggest focusing on high-risk families and communities to reduce the mortality level effectively.

Do community-level predictors have more impact than individual/family-level predictors on receiving the desired number of ANC services in Bangladesh?

Background

Bangladesh has improved maternal and child health, but healthcare indicators and access still need enhancement. Factors that contribute to increased antenatal care (ANC) need to be explored to inform healthcare policies. The study examined whether community-level (supply-side) predictors outperform individual/family-level (demand-side) predictors for the desired number of ANC services.

Methods

This cross-sectional study collected primary data from 630 pregnant and lactating women (PLW) in seven upazilas in Rangpur and Nilphamari districts of Bangladesh in 2022. The individual/family and community-level factors as predictors of desired antenatal care services were investigated using a semi-structured questionnaire. Various statistical techniques including the Student t-test, z-test, Chi-square test, and logistic regression model were employed in analyzing the data.

Results

Out of the total 630 participants, the majority were literate women who belong to higher pregnancy order and received benefits from SSNPs. In addition to this, these women did not earn and neither were the empowered. The outcome variable was the receiving status of 4+ ANC services by PLWs, which varied by different covariates. The desired 4+ ANC service received by 73 % PLWs. The significant (p < 0.05) predictors of receiving 4+ ANC services were secondary-level education (95 % CI:0.97-7.55), knowledge on danger signs (95 % CI:1.02-1.48), empowered women (95 % CI:0.99-2.69), community clinics as place of services (95 % CI:1.52-3.49), sources of information through SMS (95 % CI:2.63-7.04) and fully functional community clinic (95 % CI:1.0-2.347). The statistical evidence through the values of pseudo R2 of the reduced models of community level (0.09), individual level (0.03) and family level (0.01) revealed that the community level predictors are more influential than individual/family level predictors.

Conclusion

The findings indicate that community level predictors played a dominant role in receiving the 4+ ANC services in Bangladesh. In short, the well-functioning of community clinics in tandem with government forums/bodies and awareness raising through SMS messages, are sufficient for ensuring the desired number of ANC services in rural areas of Bangladesh.

Prevalence, trends, and factors associated with maternal autonomy regarding healthcare, finances, and mobility in Bangladesh: Analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys 1999-2018

Maternal autonomy is associated with improved healthcare utilization/outcomes for mothers and babies in low- and middle-income countries. We investigated the trends in the prevalence and factors associated with maternal autonomy in Bangladesh. This cross-sectional study analyzed the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey for 1999-00, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2014, and 2017-18. Maternal autonomy was defined as at least one decision-making ability regarding healthcare, large household purchases, and freedom of mobility. We included 15-49-year-old mothers with at least one live-birth in the past three years. We compared the samples based on the presence of autonomy and reported the trends in prevalence (95% confidence intervals (CIs)) across the survey years. Lastly, we performed multilevel logistic regression to report prevalence odds ratios (PORs) for the associated factors. Variables investigated as potential factors included maternal age, number of children, maternal education, paternal education, current work, religion, mass media exposure, wealth quintile, place and division of residence, and survey years. The prevalence of 'any' maternal autonomy was 72.0% (95% CI: 70.5-73.5) in 1999-00 and increased to 83.8% (95% CI: 82.7-84.9) in 2017-18. In adjusted analysis, mothers with older age, higher education, work outside the home, and mass media exposure had higher odds of autonomy than their counterparts (POR > 1, p < 0.05). For instance, compared to mothers without any formal education, the odds of autonomy were significantly (p < 0.001) higher among mothers with primary (adjusted POR: 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1-1.4), secondary (adjusted POR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2-1.6), and college/above (adjusted POR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.6-2.2) education. While the level of maternal autonomy has increased, a substantial proportion still do not have autonomy. Expanding educational and earning opportunities may increase maternal autonomy. Further research should investigate other ways to improve it as well.

Spatial spillover impact of determinants on child mortality in Pakistan: evidence from Spatial Durbin Model

BACKGROUND

Child mortality is a major challenge to public health in Pakistan and other developing countries. Reduction of the child mortality rate would improve public health and enhance human well-being and prosperity. This study recognizes the spatial clusters of child mortality across districts of Pakistan and identifies the direct and spatial spillover effects of determinants on the Child Mortality Rate (CMR).

METHOD

Data of the multiple indicators cluster survey (MICS) conducted by the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) was used to study the CMR. We used spatial univariate autocorrelation to test the spatial dependence between contiguous districts concerning CMR. We also applied the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to measure the spatial spillover effects of factors on CMR.

RESULTS

The study results showed 31% significant spatial association across the districts and identified a cluster of hot spots characterized by the high-high CMR in the districts of Punjab province. The empirical analysis of the SDM confirmed that the direct and spatial spillover effect of the poorest wealth quintile and MPI vulnerability on CMR is positive whereas access to postnatal care to the newly born child and improved drinking water has negatively (directly and indirectly) determined the CMR in Pakistan.

CONCLUSION

The instant results concluded that spatial dependence and significant spatial spillover effects concerning CMR exist across districts. Prioritization of the hot spot districts characterized by higher CMR can significantly reduce the CMR with improvement in financial statuses of households from the poorest quintile and MPI vulnerability as well as improvement in accessibility to postnatal care services and safe drinking water.

Gender as a determinant of health in under-five children in Ethiopia; a secondary data analysis from EDHS 2016

Background

Under-five mortality is one of the key sustainable development goal targets. Despite the great strides made globally, Under-five mortality remains high in many developing countries like Ethiopia. Child health status is determined by a myriad of factors at the individual, family and community level, furthermore, a child's gender has been shown to affect the probability of infant and child mortality.

Methods

A secondary data analysis was conducted using Ethiopian demographic health survey 2016 to assess association between gender and under-five child health. A representative sample of 18,008 households was selected. After data cleaning and entry, analysis was done using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23. Uni-variable and multivariable logistic regression model were employed to determine the association between under-five child health and gender. In the final multivariable logistic regression model, the association of gender with childhood mortality was declared statistically significant at P value < 0.05.

Result

A total of 2,075 under five children from EDHS 2016 were included in the analysis. Majority (92%) were rural dwellers. More male children were found to be underweight (53% Vs 47%) and wasted (56.2% Vs 43.8%) compared to female children. A higher proportions of females were vaccinated (52.2%) compared to 47.8% in males. Health seeking behavior for fever (54.4%) and diarrheal diseases (51.6%) were also found to be higher for females. However, in a multivariable logistic regression model, there was no statistically significant association found between gender and under-five child children health measures.

Conclusion

Although it was not statistically significant association, females were found to have a better health and nutritional outcomes compared to boys in our study.

Sociodemographic determinants of child mortality based on mothers' attitudes toward partner violence: Evidence from Bangladesh

Bangladesh, a lower-middle-income country in South Asia, has achieved a significant reduction in child mortality over the last three decades from 151 to 40 per 1000 live births. However, child mortality is still considered high, which may be attributed to a lack of awareness among mothers regarding the risk factors, particularly their perceptions of intimate partner violence (IPV). To investigate the effect of demographic and socioeconomic factors of women on child mortality, this study extracted data from the cross-sectional survey of Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2019. The data were analyzed using a Poisson regression model to assess women's perceptions and exposure to physical violence in the last three years preceding the survey and their impact on the risk of child mortality. The results indicated that approximately 26% of the participants justified domestic violence under certain circumstances. Moreover, the prevalence of child mortality was higher among those who thought that IPV is acceptable than among those who considered such violence to be unjustified. Among women who are strongly averse to partner violence, the risk of child mortality was significantly lower in those who had higher levels of education, higher household income, internet usage experience, first child at 20 years or later, frequent access to mass media, and one or two children ever born. Moreover, child mortality rates also varied across geographical areas, with children from Sylhet and Mymenshing being the most vulnerable. The data indicates women's intolerable attitudes toward partner violence not only improve their status but also increase the survival chances of their young children.

The Role of Socio-economic and Female Indicators on Child Mortality Rate in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis

This study aims to identify the role of socio-economic and female indicators on child mortality in Bangladesh from the data of 1975 - 2019. A number of econometric techniques of time series analysis like Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Autoregressive Distributive Lag bounds and pair-wise Granger causality tests have been applied to ascertain the desired outcomes. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test has confirmed that neither series is integrated at level two and the Autoregressive Distributive Lag bounds testing approach has shown the cointegration and short-run and long-run relationship between the variables. Total fertility rate and urbanization have a positive effect, and female education, female life expectancy at birth, and economic growth rate have a negative effect on the child mortality rate. The pair-wise Granger causality test has shown the unidirectional and bidirectional causal relationship among the studied variables. All the outcomes are theoretically consistent and the policy recommendations are made based on findings.

Women's education, contraception use, and high-risk fertility behavior: A cross-sectional analysis of the demographic and health survey in Ethiopia

Background

High-risk fertility behavior (HRFB) among women is the main factor in a wide range of detrimental effects on both the mother's and the child's health, which has an impact on both the mother's and the child's survival. Early childbearing is associated with a higher number of live births and may result in poorer maternal, baby, and child health outcomes. Infant and child mortality are also linked to short birth intervals and higher birth order. Thus, this study aims to examine the link between women's education, contraception use, and high-risk fertility behavior in Ethiopia.

Methods

Data was drawn from the 2019 Ethiopian Interim Demographic and Health Survey. The analysis covered a total of 5,846 women. The effect of predictor variables on HRFB was quantified using multivariable logistic regression analysis. At a 95% CI of the odds ratio excluding one, a significant association between the HRFB and predictor variables was observed.

Results

About 72.8% (95% CI 71.6%-73.9%) of women experience high-risk fertility behaviors. Of these, 32% experience single high-risk fertility behavior, and 40.8% experience multiple high-risk fertility behaviors. Of those who experience high-risk fertility behaviors, 58.7% have birth orders of more than three, 22.4% have short birth intervals (less than 24 months); 35.1% are old (over 34 years old); and 1.6% are young (less than 18 years old). Women with no education (AOR = 4.31; 95% CI: 2.09, 8.89) and primary education only (2.71; AOR = 2.71; 95% CI: 1.63, 4.50) are more likely to engage in high-risk fertility behaviors than women with a higher level of education. Every additional year of schooling reduces the odds of high-risk fertility behavior by 6% (AOR = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.98). The use of modern contraception (AOR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.622, 0.879) and knowledge of modern contraception methods (AOR = 0.80; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.96) reduce the risk of HRFB.

Conclusions

Primary education and a lack of education significantly raise the risk of HRFB. However, in Ethiopia, the risk of experiencing HRFB is reduced through modern contraceptive methods, awareness of modern contraceptive methods, and years of education. All initiatives to decrease maternal and newborn mortalities by reducing the risk of HRFB should educate women and encourage them to use modern contraception.

The effects of social determinants on children's health outcomes in Bangladesh slums through an intersectionality lens: An application of multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA)

Empirical evidence suggests that the health outcomes of children living in slums are poorer than those living in non-slums and other urban areas. Improving health especially among children under five years old (U5y) living in slums, requires a better understanding of the social determinants of health (SDoH) that drive their health outcomes. Therefore, we aim to investigate how SDoH collectively affects health outcomes of U5y living in Bangladesh slums through an intersectionality lens. We used data from the most recent national Urban Health Survey (UHS) 2013 covering urban populations in Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Rajshahi, Barisal, Sylhet, and Rangpur divisions. We applied multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) to estimate the Discriminatory Accuracy (DA) of the intersectional effects estimates using Variance Partition Coefficient (VPC) and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). We also assessed the Proportional Change in Variance (PCV) to calculate intersectional effects. We considered three health outcomes: cough, fever, and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in U5y.We found a low DA for cough (VPC = 0.77%, AUC-ROC = 61.90%), fever (VPC = 0.87%, AUC-ROC = 61.89%) and ARI (VPC = 1.32%, AUC-ROC = 66.36%) of intersectional strata suggesting that SDoH considered do not collectively differentiate U5y with a health outcome from those with and without a health outcome. The PCV for cough (85.90%), fever (78.42%) and ARI (69.77%) indicates the existence of moderate intersectional effects. We also found that SDoH factors such as slum location, mother's employment, age of household head, and household's garbage disposal system are associated with U5y health outcomes. The variables used in this analysis have low ability to distinguish between those with and without health outcomes. However, the existence of moderate intersectional effect estimates indicates that U5y in some social groups have worse health outcomes compared to others. Therefore, policymakers need to consider different social groups when designing intervention policies aimed to improve U5y health outcomes in Bangladesh slums.

Examining the influence of correlates on different quantile survival times: infant mortality in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Several studies have identified factors influencing infant mortality, but, to the best of knowledge, no studies assessed the factors considering unequal effects on different survival times of infant mortality in Bangladesh. In this study, it was examined how a set of covariates behaves on different quantile survival times related with the infant mortality.

METHODS

Data obtained from Bangladesh multiple indicator cluster survey (BMICS), 2019 have been used for purpose of the study. A total of 9,183 reproductive women were included in the study who gave their most recent live births within two years preceding the survey. Kaplan-Meier product limit approach has been applied to find the survival probabilities for the infant mortality, and the log-rank test has also been used to observe the unadjusted association between infant mortality and selected covariates. To examine the unequal effects of the covariates on different quantile survival time of infant mortality, the Laplace survival regression model has been fitted. The results obtained from this model have also been compared with the results obtained from the classical accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard (Cox PH) models.

RESULTS

The infant mortality in Bangladesh is still high which is around 28 per 1000 live births. In all the selected survival regression models, the directions of regression coefficients were similar, but the heterogenous effects of covariates on survival time were observed in quantile survival model. Several correlates such as maternal age, education, gender of index child, previous birth interval, skilled antenatal care provider, immediate breastfeeding etc. were identified as potential factors having higher impact on initial survival times.

CONCLUSION

Infant mortality was significantly influenced by the factors more in the beginning of the infant's life period than at later stages, suggesting that receiving proper care at an early age will raise the likelihood of survival. Policy-making interventions are required to reduce the infant deaths, and the study findings may assist policy makers to revise the programs so that the sustainable development goal 3.2 can be achieved in Bangladesh.

Revisiting the Impact of Clean Water and Improved Sanitation on Child Mortality: Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Using Demographic and Health Surveys, this study examined the impact of clean water and improved sanitation on child morality in five South Asian countries. South Asia is the region with the second most public health crises due to the utilization of unsafe water and sanitation, only second to Sub-Saharan Africa. Logistic regression models suggest that access to improved water and sanitation is significantly associated with a lower probability of child mortality, especially during the post-neonatal period. Although increased parental educational attainment and household wealth reduce the risk of child mortality, the combined household wealth and place of residence variable revealed the higher risk of mortality for children living in urban areas than rural areas. These findings emphasize the importance of the access to clean water and improved sanitation to reduce the number of children dying due to water-related diseases. Additionally, they suggest the need for additional research on the contribution of clean water and improved sanitation to achieve the global goals of child mortality reduction, especially the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Multilevel log linear model to estimate the risk factors associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia: further analysis of 2016 EDHS

BACKGROUND

Infant mortality is defined as the death of a child at any time after birth and before the child's first birthday. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest infant and child mortality rate in the world. Infant and child mortality rates are higher in Ethiopia. A study was carried out to estimate the risk factors that affect infant mortality in Ethiopia.

METHOD

The EDHS- 2016 data set was used for this study. A total of 10,547 mothers from 11 regions were included in the study's findings. To estimate the risk factors associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia, several count models (Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Infated Poisson, Zero-Infated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial) were considered.

RESULT

The average number of infant deaths was 0.526, with a variance of 0.994, indicating over-dispersion. The highest mean number of infant death occurred in Somali (0.69) and the lowest in Addis Ababa (0.089). Among the multilevel log linear models, the ZINB regression model with deviance (17,868.74), AIC (17,938.74), and BIC (1892.97) are chosen as the best model for estimating the risk factors affecting infant mortality in Ethiopia. However, the results of a multilevel ZINB model with a random intercept and slope model revealed that residence, mother's age, household size, mother's age at first birth, breast feeding, child weight, contraceptive use, birth order, wealth index, father education level, and birth interval are associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia.

CONCLUSION

Infant deaths remains high and infant deaths per mother differ across regions. An optimal fit was found to the data based on a multilevel ZINB model. We suggest fitting the ZINB model to count data with excess zeros originating from unknown sources such as infant mortality.

Is there any association between undesired children and health status of under-five children? Analysis of a nationally representative sample from Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Child health, especially childhood mortality, is one of the critical indicators of human development. No child mortality is desirable, but it is still high in Bangladesh. We aimed to assess the effect of the child's desired status on childhood morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh.

METHODS

We used the data from the nationally representative cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2017-18 and restricted the analyses to children born in the past five years preceding the survey. We estimated the undesired status (excess in boy, girl, both, and parity) by subtracting an ideal number of children from the total live birth. We measured childhood mortality (perinatal, early neonatal, neonatal, post-neonatal, infant, child, and under-five mortality), morbidity (fever, diarrhea, cough, and acute respiratory infectious-ARI), nutritional problems (stunting, wasting, underweight, and low birth weight), and treatments (postnatal care, treatment for fever, diarrhea/cough, and vitamin A supplementation). Finally, we utilized the chi-square test and multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

The prevalence of undesired children was 19.2%, 21.5%, 3.7%, and 25.4% for boys, girls, both boys and girls, and parity, respectively. Age, education, residence, division, and wealth index were significantly associated with undesired children. The prevalence of under-five mortality was 3.3% among desired children, almost double (5.4%) among undesired children. The likelihood of under-five mortality was [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.05, p ≤ 0.001] higher among undesired children. Despite lower under-five mortality among higher socioeconomic status, the relative contribution of undesired children to under-fiver mortality was substantial. The undesired girl children were associated with an increased likelihood of moderately wasting (aOR: 1.28, p = 0.072), severely underweight (aOR: 1.41, p = 0.066), and low birth weight (aOR: 1.50, p ≤ 0.05). Moreover, the undesired children were 19% (p ≤ 0.05) more likely to be infected with fever. The undesired children had lower treatment for diarrhea and fever/cough and were less likely to get vitamin A supplementation (aOR: 0.71, p ≤ 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The share of childhood morbidity, mortality, and malnutrition were higher among undesired children. Every child should be wanted, and no unwanted pregnancies are desirable; thereby, the government should reemphasize the proper use of family planning methods to reduce child mortality and malnutrition.

Assessing Individual- and Community-Level Variability in Predictors of Neonatal, Infant, and Under-Five Child Mortality in Ethiopia Using a Multilevel Modeling Approach

Background: In low-and middle-income countries, child mortality rates are basic indicators of a country’s socio-economic situation and quality of life. The Ethiopian government is currently working to reduce child mortality to accomplish its long-term development goals. Using data from the Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey, 2019, this study analyzed the determinants of child mortality in Ethiopia. Methods: A total of 4806 children were considered in the final analyses. Multivariate analysis was used to estimate the effects of the predictors simultaneously on each child mortality outcome. Results: The findings revealed that 31.6% of children died during the neonatal stage, 39.1% during the infant stage, and 48.5% during the under-five stage. Variation in child mortality was discovered between Ethiopian community clusters, with the result of heterogeneity between clusters on newborn mortality (χ2 = 202.4, p-value < 0.0001), (χ2 = 777.35, p-value < 0.0001), and (χ2 = 112.92, p-value < 0.0001). Children’s neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC) were 0.35, 0.33, and 0.36, respectively, across communities. Conclusions: In Ethiopia, under-five mortality remains a serious public health issue, with wide variations and high rates among community clusters. Intervention measures focusing on lowering rates of household poverty, increasing education opportunities, and improving access to health care could assist in reducing child mortality in Ethiopia.

Determinants of under-five mortality in Indonesia: A nationwide study

BACKGROUND

The mortality rate for infants and children under five in Indonesia is an ongoing challenge for the government, with figures exceeding the targets set for the country by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to discover the factors causing under-five mortality in Indonesia.

METHODS

This study will employ a cross-sectional study design with data sourced from the 2017 Indonesian Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) between July and September 2017. The sample included 10,014 women who had given birth in the five years prior to the survey. The data was analyzed using Binary logistic regression with a significance level of p < 0.05.

RESULTS

The significant factors relating to under-five mortality in Indonesia are: mother's age at birth (AOR = 2.04; 95% CI 95% = 1.11-3.77); birth weight (AOR = 7.60; 95% CI 95% = 5.17-11.19); the sex of the child (AOR = 1.80; 95% CI 95% = 1.28-2.52); frequency of using the internet (AOR = 1.13; 95% CI 95% = 0.02-0.95); residence (AOR = 0.64; 95% CI 95% = 0.33-0.94); and birth interval (AOR = 0.52; 95% CI 95% = 0.29-0.92). Birth weight is the more likely cause for under-five mortality in Indonesia.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that the characteristics of mothers, children, the area of residence, and the behavior of the mother affect the under-five mortality.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Pediatric nurses can have a role to play in developing knowledge about health for both mothers and families. Additionally, accessible health education on issues from planning a pregnancy to childcare should be promoted in both rural and urban areas as well as a campaign on proper hygiene practices.

Examining infant and child death clustering among families in the cross-sectional and nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018

OBJECTIVES

We aim to examine the phenomenon of infant and child death clustering while considering the unobserved heterogeneity (frailty) at the family level.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We analysed Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018 data, including the birth history information for 47 828 children born to 18 134 women. We used Gompertz shared frailty model to control the correlation between event times at the mother level and capture the unobserved risks in infant and child deaths.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We estimated two sets of survival regression models where the failure event is the survival status of the index child during the infancy period, that is, from birth to 11 months, and childhood period, that is, between 12 and 59 months, respectively. All children who died during infancy and childhood were coded as 'yes'; otherwise, they were coded as 'no'.

RESULTS

About 2% of mothers experienced two or more infant deaths, and cumulatively these mothers account for 20% of all infant deaths in the sample. Children whose previous sibling was not alive at the time of their conception had 1.86 times (95% CI 1.59 to 2.17) more risk of dying as an infant. However, we did not find a statistically significant effect of death scarring on the risk of child mortality among siblings. Statistically significant frailty effect with a variance of 0.33 (95% CI CI 0.17 to 0.65) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.14 to 2.03)] in infancy and childhood, respectively, indicates the clustering of survival risks within families due to unobserved family-level characteristics shared by the siblings.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that preceding birth interval, mother's age at first birth and mother's education are the most critical factors which can help in reducing scaring effect on infant mortality. Additionally, women from poor socioeconomic strata should be focused on as still an infant, and child mortality is concentrated among poor households.

Association of breast feeding and birth interval with child mortality in Pakistan: a cross-sectional study using nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data

OBJECTIVES

This study analysed the association between breast feeding (BF) and birth interval (BI) (both succeeding and preceding) with neonatal mortality (NM), infant mortality (IM) and under-5 mortality (U5M).

DESIGN

This cross-sectional study used data from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018.

SETTINGS

All provinces, Islamabad and Federally Administered Tribal Areas were included in the analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 12 769 children born to ever-married multiparous women aged 30-49 years who gave live birth within 5 years preceding the interview. Multiple births are not included.

DATA ANALYSIS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used.

RESULTS

We found that BF was associated with nearly 98% lower risk of NM (OR 0.015; 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.03; p<0.001), 96% lower risk of IM (OR 0.038; 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.06; p<0.001) and 94% lower risk of U5M (OR 0.050; 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.08; p<0.001). Compared with optimal preceding birth interval (PBI) (36+ months), short PBI (<18 months) was associated with around six times higher risk of NM (OR 5.661; 95% CI: 2.78 to 11.53; p<0.001), over five times risk of IM (OR 4.704; 95% CI: 2.70 to 8.19; p<0.001) and over five times risk of U5M (OR 4.745; 95% CI: 2.79 to 8.07; p<0.001). Disaggregating the data by child's gender, place of residence and mother's occupational status showed that being ever breast fed was associated with a smaller risk of NM, IM and U5M in all three disaggregations. However, the risk of smaller PBI <18 months was generally more pronounced in female children (NM and U5M) or when the children lived in rural areas (NM, IM and U5M). PBI <18 months was associated with greater risk of NM and IM, and smaller risk of U5M when mothers did a paid job.

CONCLUSION

This study's significance lies in the fact that it has found BF and BI to be consistent protective factors against NM, IM and U5M. Given Pakistan's economic constraints, optimal BF and BI are the most cost-effective interventions to reduce child mortality.

Decomposition of factors associated with housing material inequality in under-five deaths in low and middle-income countries

Background

Low-and Medium-Income Countries (LMIC) continue to record a high burden of under-five deaths (U5D). There is a gap in knowledge of the factors contributing to housing materials inequalities in U5D. This study examined the contributions of the individual- and neighbourhood-level factors to housing materials inequalities in influencing U5D in LMIC.

Methods

We pooled data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys for 56 LMIC conducted between 2010 and 2018. In all, we analysed the data of 798,796 children living in 59,791 neighbourhoods. The outcome variable was U5D among live births within 0 to 59 months of birth. The main determinate variable was housing material types, categorised as unimproved housing materials (UHM) and improved housing materials (IHM) while the individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors are the independent variables. Data were analysed using the Fairlie decomposition analysis at α = 0.05.

Results

The overall U5D rate was 53 per 1000 children, 61 among children from houses built with UHM, and 41 among children from houses built with IHM (p < 0.001). This rate was higher among children from houses that were built with UHM in all countries except Malawi, Zambia, Lesotho, Gambia, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Indonesia, Maldives, Jordan, and Albania. None of these countries had significant pro-IHM inequality. The factors explaining housing inequalities in U5D include household wealth status, residence location, source of drinking water, media access, paternal employment, birth interval, and toilet type.

Conclusions

There are variations in individual- and neighbourhood-level factors driving housing materials inequalities as it influences U5D in LMIC. Interventions focusing on reducing the burden of U5D in households built with UHM are urgently needed.

Socio-economic determinants of child mortality in Pakistan and the moderating role of household's wealth index

BACKGROUND

Child mortality is an important social indicator that describes the health conditions of a country as well as determines the country's overall socio-economic development. The Government of Pakistan has been struggling to reduce child mortality (67.2 per thousand live births in 2019). Pakistan could not achieve the target set for Millennium Development Goals to reduce child mortality and still working to meet the target set by the Sustainable Development Goals. This study has investigated the socio-economic determinants of child mortality in Pakistan by using household-level data. Socio-economic characteristics related to women (mothers) and households have been considered as possible determinants of child mortality. The moderating role of a household's wealth index on the association between woman's education and child mortality has also been investigated.

METHODS

The comprehensive dataset of the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18 has been used to explore the determinants of child mortality by using multivariable logistic regression. The interaction term of women's education and household wealth index has been used to investigate the moderating role of the household's wealth index.

RESULTS

The results indicate that the likelihood of child mortality decreases with an increase in women's education, their empowerment, their husband's education, the wealth status of their households, access to clean drinking water, access to toilet facilities, and exposure to mass media. Whereas, an increase in unmet need for family planning increases the likelihood of child mortality. The study also identified the moderating role of a household's wealth index on the association between woman's education and child mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Household wealth status moderates the association between women's education and child mortality. The absolute slope of the curve showing the association of women's education and child mortality is higher (more negative) for richer households than poorer households. It implies that a household's wealth status strengthens the relationship between women's education and child mortality. With the increase in the household's wealth status, the effect of a mother's education on child mortality becomes more pronounced.

Trends and Associated Factors of Under-five Mortality Based on 2008–2016 Data in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Eastern Ethiopia

Background: Of the 6.2 million estimated deaths of children under 15 years of age globally, the death toll of children under 5 years of age accounted for 5.3 million. In Ethiopia, even though significant progress has been made, facility-based research shows that the mortality rate of children under 5 is still high. In the country, particularly in the eastern part, evidence on trends in under-five mortality and associated factors from population-based longitudinal data is limited. Objective: The objective of the study was to assess under-five mortality focusing on the trends and associated factors based on 2008–2016 data in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Eastern Ethiopia. The method: The study was based on 9 years of surveillance data. The surveillance site was founded in 2007 with the aim of producing community-based health and demographic data in the eastern Ethiopia. Data were collected from the surveillance site and analyzed with STATA version 15 (for factor analysis) and/or Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 26 (for trend analysis) and Microsoft (MS) Excel software. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and Mann–Kendall were used to analyze mortality trends. Multi-level logistic regression was used to assess the associated factors. Result: There were a total of 18 759 newborns in the surveillance sites, of which 1602 died of children under 5 years of age, and the total mortality rate for children under 5 years of age was 85 per 1000 live births. Trend analysis shows that the mortality rate of children under 5 has been steadily declining during the study period. Multi-level logistic regression shows that the variance of the random component model related to the intercept term is statistically significant, which means that there is a change in the mortality rate of children under 5 between the survey years, which is explained by the random intercept term. Antenatal care visits by mothers (AOR = .61, 95% CI = .49, .74), primary education (AOR = .58, 95% CI = .49, .68), normal birth weight (AOR = .78, 95% CI = .64, .95), and having 2 or fewer total births (AOR = .37, 95% CI = .22, .37) were all associated with child death. Conclusion: Despite the downward trend, the mortality rate of children under 5 years old at the surveillance sites is high. Effective intervention measures should be implemented.

A Spatial Survival Model for Risk Factors of Under-Five Child Mortality in Kenya

Child mortality is high in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to other regions in the world. In Kenya, the risk of mortality is assumed to vary from county to county due to diversity in socio-economic and even climatic factors. Recently, the country was split into 47 different administrative regions called counties, and health care was delegated to those county governments, further aggravating the spatial differences in health care from county to county. The goal of this study is to evaluate the effects of spatial variation in under-five mortality in Kenya. Data from the Kenya Demographic Health Survey (KDHS-2014) consisting the newly introduced counties was used to analyze this risk. Using a spatial Cox Proportional Hazard model, an Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive Model (ICAR) was fitted to account for the spatial variation among the counties in the country while the Cox model was used to model the risk factors associated with the time to death of a child. Inference regarding the risk factors and the spatial variation was made in a Bayesian setup based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique to provide posterior estimates. The paper indicate the spatial disparities that exist in the country regarding child mortality in Kenya. The specific counties have mortality rates that are county-specific, although neighboring counties have similar hazards for death of a child. Counties in the central Kenya region were shown to have the highest hazard of death, while those from the western region had the lowest hazard of death. Demographic factors such as the sex of the child and sex of the household head, as well as social economic factors, such as the level of education, accounted for the most variation when spatial differences were factored in. The spatial Cox proportional hazard frailty model performed better compared to the non-spatial non-frailty model. These findings can help the country to plan health care interventions at a subnational level and guide social and health policies by ensuring that counties with a higher risk of Under Five Child Mortality (U5CM) are considered differently from counties experiencing a lower risk of death.

Socio-demographic and environmental risk factors associated with multiple under-five child loss among mothers in Bangladesh

Background

Despite the substantial decline in child mortality globally over the last decade, reducing neonatal and under-five mortality in Bangladesh remains a challenge. Mothers who experienced multiple child losses could have substantial adverse personal and public health consequences. Hence, prevention of child loss would be extremely desirable during women’s reproductive years. The main objective of this study was to determine the risk factors associated with multiple under-five child loss from the same mother in Bangladesh.

Methods

In this study, a total of 15,877 eligible women who had given birth at least once were identified from the 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. A variety of count regression models were considered for identifying socio-demographic and environmental factors associated with multiple child loss measured as the number of lifetime under-five child mortality (U5M) experienced per woman.

Results

Of the total sample, approximately one-fifth (18.9%, n = 3003) of mothers experienced at least one child’s death during their reproductive period. The regression analysis results revealed that women in non-Muslim families, with smaller household sizes, with lower education, who were more advanced in their childbearing years, and from an unhygienic environment were at significantly higher risk of experiencing offspring mortality. This study also identified the J-shaped effect of age at first birth on the risk of U5M.

Conclusions

This study documented that low education, poor socio-economic status, extremely young or old age at first birth, and an unhygienic environment significantly contributed to U5M per mother. Therefore, improving women’s educational attainment and socio-economic status, prompting appropriate timing of pregnancy during reproductive life span, and increasing access to healthy sanitation are recommended as possible interventions for reducing under-five child mortality from a mother. Our findings point to the need for health policy decision-makers to target interventions for socio-economically vulnerable women in Bangladesh.

Time to death and its determinants among under-five children in Sub-Saharan Africa using the recent (2010-2018) demographic and health survey data: country-based shared frailty analyses

Background

Substantial global progress has been made in reducing under-five mortality since 1990, yet progress is insufficient to meet the sustainable development goal of 2030 which calls for ending preventable child deaths. There are disproportional survivals among children in the world. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the Survival status of under-five mortality and determinants in Sub-Saharan African Countries using the recent DHS data.

Methods

The data was retrieved from the birth record file from the standard Demographic and Health Survey dataset of Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Countries that have at least one survey between 2010 and 2018 were retrieved. Parametric shared frailty survival analysis was employed.

Results

A total of 27,221 (7.35%) children were died before celebrating their fifth birthday. Children at an early age were at higher risk of dying and then decrease proportionally with increased age. The risk of death among rich and middle family were lowered by 18 and 8% (AHR =0.82, 95% CI: 0.77-0.87) and (AHR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) respectively, the hazard of death were 11, 19, 17, 90 and 55% (AHR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00-1.12), (AHR = 1.11,95%CI:1.04-1.19), (AHR = 1.17, 95% CI:1.12-1.23), (AHR = 1.90, 95%CI: 1.78-2.04) and (AHR = 1.55, 95% CI:1.47-1.63) higher than among children in rural, use unimproved water, delivered at home, born less than 18 months and between 18 and 23 months birth intervals respectively. The hazard of death was 7% among females and low birth weights (AHR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.90 – 0.97) and (AHR = 0.93 95%CI: 0.89-0.97) respectively. There was also a significant association between multiple births and birth orders (AHR = 2.11, 95%CI: 2.51 – 2.90), (AHR = 3.01, 95%CI: 2.85-3.19) respectively.

Conclusions

Death rate among under-five children was higher at an early age then decreases as age advanced. Wealth status, residence, water source, place of delivery, sex of the child, plurality, birth size, preceding birth interval, and birth order were the most predictor variables. The health care program should be designed to encourage a healthy family structure. The health care providers should intervene in the community to inspire maternal health services.

Mapping of mothers' suffering and child mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa

Child death and mothers who suffer from child death are a public health concern in Sub-Saharan Africa. The location and associated factors of child death and mothers who suffer child death were not identified. To monitor and prioritize effective interventions, it is important to identify hotspots areas and associated factors. Data from nationally representative demographic and health survey and Multiple Indicator Cluster administrated in 42 Sub-Sahara Africa countries, which comprised a total of 398,574 mothers with 1,521,312 children. Spatial heterogeneity conducted hotspot regions identified. A mixed-effect regression model was run, and the adjusted ratio with corresponding 95% confidence intervals was estimated. The prevalence of mothers who suffer child death 27% and 45-49 year of age mother 48%. In Niger, 47% of mothers were suffering child death. Women being without HIV knowledge, stunted, wasted, uneducated, not household head, poor, from rural, and from subtropical significantly increased the odds of the case (P < 0.05). The spatial analysis can support the design and prioritization of interventions. Multispectral interventions for mothers who suffer from child death are urgently needed, improve maternal health and it will reduce the future risk of cases.

Revisit the correlates of infant mortality in Bangladesh: findings from two nationwide cross-sectional studies

OBJECTIVE

The main objective of this study is to investigate how the direction and strength of the association between infant mortality and its predictors are changing over time in Bangladesh using a nationally representative sample for the period 2011-2014.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Data from two repeatedly cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) for the years 2011 and 2014 were used. A total of 7664 (with 312 infant death) and 7048 (with 264 infant death) complete cases, respectively, from BDHS 2011 and 2014 datasets were included in the study.

METHODS

Cox's proportional hazard model with robust standard error (SE) that adjusts for the complex survey design characteristics was implemented to assess how the risk factors associated with infant mortality change their paths.

RESULTS

Results reflected that administrative division remained as a potential risk factor of infant death for both periods. Household's socioeconomic status, father's employment status, age difference between parents turned out to be potential risk factors in 2014, though they did not show any significant association with infant death in the year 2011. In contrast to 2011, mothers' individual-level characteristics such as age at childbirth, education, media exposure, employment status did not remain as significant risk factors for infant death in 2014. Younger fathers increased the burden of death among infants of adolescent mothers. At higher order births, the burden of infant death significantly shifted from rural to urban areas. From the year 2011 to 2014, urban areas achieved socioeconomic equity in infant survival, while the extent of inequity was increased in rural areas.

CONCLUSION

Community-based programmes should be designed for urban mothers who are expecting higher order births. To eradicate the socioeconomic inequity in infant survival, the government should design strong and sustainable maternal and child healthcare facilities, especially for rural areas.

Household cooking fuel type and childhood anaemia in sub-Saharan Africa: analysis of cross-sectional surveys of 123, 186 children from 29 countries

OBJECTIVE

This study sought to investigate the joint effect of household cooking fuel type and urbanicity (rural-urban residency) on anaemia among children under the age of five in sub-Saharan Africa.

DESIGN

We analysed cross-sectional data of 123, 186 children under the age of five from 29 sub-Saharan African countries gathered between 2010 and 2019 by the Demographic and Health Survey programme. Bivariate (χ² test of independence) and multilevel logistic regression were used to examine the effect of urbanicity-household cooking fuel type on childhood anaemia. Results were reported as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% CIs at p<0.05.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Anaemia status of children.

RESULTS

More than half (64%) of children had anaemia. The percentage of children who suffered from anaemia was high in those born to mothers in Western Africa (75%) and low among those born in Southern Africa (54%). Children from rural households that depend on unclean cooking fuels (aOR=1.120; 95% CI 1.033 to 1.214) and rural households that depend on clean cooking fuels (aOR=1.256; 95% CI 1.080 to 1.460) were more likely to be anaemic as compared with children from urban households using clean cooking fuel. Child's age, sex of child, birth order, perceived birth size, age of mother, body mass index of mother, education, marital status, employment status, antenatal care, wealth quintile, household size, access to electricity, type of toilet facility, source of drinking water and geographic region had significant associations with childhood anaemia status.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study has established a joint effect of type of household cooking fuel and urbanicity on anaemia among children under the age of five in sub-Saharan Africa. It is therefore critical to promote the usage of clean cooking fuels among households and women in rural areas. These should be done taking into consideration the significant child, maternal, household, and contextual factors identified in this study.

Cherish your children: socio-economic and demographic characteristics associated with child mortality

BACKGROUND

The United Nations Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNIGME) indicates that child mortality is the death rate of children between age zero to five. The importance of this area of research is high where worldwide a number of studies have been led on infant and child mortality, despite limited research discoveries with regards to Sri Lanka. The aim of this study is to investigate the socio-economic and demographic characteristics associated with child mortality in Sri Lanka.

METHODS

Using the context of Sri Lanka as a case study, this study carried out based on data gathered from the micro level national survey. Using the logit regression model through the step-wise technique, the study investigate the socio-economic and demographic characteristics associated with child mortality in Sri Lanka.

RESULTS

According to the generated results, place of residence province-wise, household head's education level and source of drinking water have negative effect (lower risk) on child mortality in Sri Lanka. Exceptionally, the Western province has the highest negative effect on child mortality which demonstrates it as the least harmful region in Sri Lanka in child endurance. Household heads who owns private entities and Sri Lankan Moors has a positive effect on child mortality as well.

CONCLUSION

This study is helpful to address the population health of local arena and results can be supportive to the government and policymakers to gain an overview of physical health status of the country and able to uplift their policies based on the new findings.

Does Birth Interval Matter in Under-Five Mortality? Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys from Eight Countries in West Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), every 1 in 12 children under five dies every year compared with 1 in 147 children in the high-income regions. Studies have shown an association between birth intervals and pregnancy outcomes such as low birth weight, preterm birth, and intrauterine growth restriction. In this study, we examined the association between birth interval and under-five mortality in eight countries in West Africa. A secondary analysis of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from eight West African countries was carried out. The sample size for this study comprised 52,877 childbearing women (15-49 years). A bivariate logistic regression analysis was carried out and the results were presented as crude odds ratio (cOR) and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) at 95% confidence interval (CI). Birth interval had a statistically significant independent association with under-five mortality, with children born to mothers who had >2 years birth interval less likely to die before their fifth birthday compared to mothers with ≤2 years birth interval [cOR = 0.56; CI = 0.51 − 0.62], and this persisted after controlling for the covariates [aOR = 0.55; CI = 0.50 − 0.61]. The country-specific results showed that children born to mothers who had >2 years birth interval were less likely to die before the age of five compared to mothers with ≤2 years birth interval in all the eight countries. In terms of the covariates, wealth quintile, mother's age, mother's age at first birth, partner's age, employment status, current pregnancy intention, sex of child, size of child at birth, birth order, type of birth, and contraceptive use also had associations with under-five mortality. We conclude that shorter birth intervals are associated with higher under-five mortality. Other maternal and child characteristics also have associations with under-five mortality. Reproductive health interventions aimed at reducing under-five mortality should focus on lengthening birth intervals. Such interventions should be implemented, taking into consideration the characteristics of women and their children.

Count Models Analysis of Factors Associated with Under-Five Mortality in Ethiopia

Background. Under-five mortality has continued a key challenge to public health in Ethiopia, and other sub-Saharan Africa countries. The threat of under-five mortality is incessant and more studies are needed to generate new scientific evidence. This study aimed to model the number of under-five deaths a mother has experienced in her lifetime and factors associated with it in Ethiopia. Method. A retrospective cross-sectional study based on data obtained from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), 2016 was used. The response variable was the total number of under-five children died per mother in her lifetime. Variables such as maternal socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, health, and environmental factors were considered as risk factors of under-five mortality. Hurdle negative binomial (HNB) regression analysis was employed to determine the factors associated with under-five mortality. Results. The data showed that 27.2% (95%CI: 0263, 0.282) of women experienced under-five deaths. The study revealed the age of mother at first birth, the age of mother at the time of under-five mortality occurred, number of household members, household access to electricity, region, educational level of the mother, sex of household head, wealth index, mother residing with husband/partner at the time of under-five mortality occurred as factors associated with under-five mortality. Age of mother at first birth 18 to 24 (IRR = .663; 95%CI: 0.587, 0.749), 25 or higher years old (IRR = 0.424; 95%CI: 0.306, 0.588), access to electricity (IRR = 0.758; 95%CI: 0.588, 0.976), primary education level of the mother (IRR = 0.715; 95%CI: 0.584, 0.875) and the richer wealth index (IRR = 0.785; 95%CI: 0.624, 0.988) were associated with reduced incidence of under-five mortality controlling for other variables in the model. Whereas older age of mother 35 to 39 (IRR = 5.252; 95%CI: 2.992, 9.218), 40 to 44 (IRR = 7.429; 95%CI: 4.188, 13.177), 45 to 49 (IRR = 8.697; 95%CI: 4.853, 15.585), being a resident of the Benishangul-gumuz region (IRR = 1.781; 95%CI: 1.303, 2.434), female household head (IRR = 1.256; 95%CI: 1.034, 1.525) were associated with an increased incidence of under-five mortality. Conclusion. The findings suggested that early age of mothers’ at first birth and old ages of mothers’, female household head and being uneducated were found to increase the incidence of the under-five mortality, whereas access to electricity and living with husband was statistically associated with reduced incidence of under-five mortality. The implication of this study is that policymakers and stakeholders should provide health education for mothers not to give birth at an earlier age and improve living standards to achieve sustainable development goals.

Trends and projections of under-5 mortality in Bangladesh including the effects of maternal high-risk fertility behaviours and use of healthcare services

OBJECTIVE

This study examines trends and puts forward projections of under-5 mortality (U5M) in Bangladesh and identifies the effects of maternal high-risk fertility behaviours and use of healthcare services.

METHODS

Data from seven waves of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (1994-2014) were analyzed for trends and projections of U5M and a Chi-square (χ2) test was used to identify if there was any association with maternal high-risk fertility behaviours and use of healthcare services. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the effects of fertility behaviors and healthcare usage on the occurrence of U5M adjusting with confounders.

RESULTS

U5M declined from 82.5 to 41.0 per 1000 livebirths during 1994-2014 and is projected to further reduce to 17.6 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. The study identified a noticeable regional variation in U5M with maternal high-risk fertility behaviours including age at birth <18 years (aOR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.23-2.76) and birth interval <24 months (aOR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.02-2.37) found to be significant determinants. There was a 39-53% decline in this rate of mortality among women that had used antenatal care services at least four times (aOR, 0.51, 95% CI: 0.27-0.97), delivery care (aOR, 0.47, 95% CI: 0.24-0.95), and had received postnatal care (aOR, 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41-0.91) in their last birth. Cesarean section was found to be associated with a 51% reduction in U5M (aOR, 0.49, 95% CI: 0.29-0.82) compared to its non-use.

CONCLUSION

The Sustainable Development Goals require a U5M rate of 25 per 1000 livebirths to be achieved by 2030. This study suggests that with the current trend of reduction, Bangladesh will achieve this target before the deadline. This study also found that maternal high-risk fertility behaviours and non-use of maternal healthcare services are very prevalent in some regions of Bangladesh and have increased the occurrence of U5M in those areas. This suggests therefore, that policies and programmes designed to reduce the pregnancy rates of women that are at risk and to encourage an increase in the use of maternal healthcare services are needed.

Proximate, intermediate, and distal predictors of under-five mortality in Chad: analysis of the 2014-15 Chad demographic and health survey data

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality in Chad reached a minimum value of 119 deaths per 1000 live births in 2018, compared with a maximum of 250 in 1972. Despite this decline in the  mortality trend, for every six children in Chad, one dies before the age of five. This study, therefore, investigated the proximate, intermediate, and distal determinants of under-five mortality in Chad.

METHODS

We used data from the 2014-15 Chad's Demographic and Health Survey. Data of 7782 children below 5 years were used for the study. Both descriptive and multivariable hierarchical logistic regression analyses were performed. Statistical significance was declared at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Under-five mortality was found to be 130 deaths per 1000 live births in Chad, with variations across the various population sub-groups. For distal predictors, the likelihood of death was higher in children born in the FChari Baguirmi region (AOR = 3.83, 95% CI: 1.81-8.14). Children whose mothers belonged to the Baguirmi/Barma ethnic group (AOR = 8.04, 95% CI: 1.75-36.99) were more likely to die before the age of five. On the contrary, the likelihood of under-five mortality was low among children born in rural areas (AOR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55-0.97). With the intermediate predictors, the likelihood of under-five deaths was higher among children whose mothers had no formal education (AOR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.06-2.77). Regarding the proximate predictors, the odds of under-five deaths was higher among male children (AOR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.05-1.63) and first rank children (AOR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.13-2.21).

CONCLUSION

The study found that the determinants of under-five mortality in Chad are region of residence, place of residence, ethnicity, education, sex of child, and birth rank. These findings show that both socio-economic and proximate factors explain the disparities in under-five mortality in Chad. The identification of these factors can be pivotal towards the design of evidence-based interventions intended to improve child survival. Therefore, improving maternal education while refocusing and re-packaging existing strategies to target selected sub-regional populations with high under-five mortality is urgently required.

Frequentist and Bayesian Regression Approaches for Determining Risk Factors of Child Mortality in Ghana

Background

Child mortality is a global health problem. The United Nations' 2018 report on levels and trends on child mortality indicated that under-five mortality is one of the major public health problems in Ghana with a rate of 60 deaths per 1000 live births. To further mitigate this problem, it is important to identify the drivers of under-five mortality in order to achieve the United Nations SDG Goal 3 target 2.

Methods

In this study, we investigated the effects of some selected risk factors on child mortality using data from the 2014 Ghana Demographic Health Survey. We modelled the relationship between child mortality and the risk factors using a logistic regression model under the frequentist and Bayesian frameworks. We used the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm to simulate parameter estimates from the posterior distributions, and statistical analyses were carried out using STATA version 14.1.

Results

Results from the frequentist framework are in line with those from the Bayesian framework. The results showed an increased risk of death among children who were delivered through caesarean and reduced relative odds of death among children whose sizes are average or large at birth and whose mothers have formal education.

Conclusions

There is a need for improved health facilities for better health-care for mothers and children. Education should, among other things, emphasise on the need for mothers to go for regular check-ups during antinatal and postnatal periods for improved mother and child health.

Risk factors of child mortality in Ethiopia: Application of multilevel two-part model

The child mortality rate is an essential measurement of socioeconomic growth and the quality of life in Ethiopia which is one among the six countries that account for half of the global under-five deaths. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the potential risk factors for child mortality in Ethiopia. Data for the study was drawn from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data conducted in 2016. A two-part random effects regression model was employed to identify the associated predictors of child mortality. The study found that 53.3% of mothers did not face any child death, while 46.7% lost at least one. Vaccinated child (IRR = 0.735, 95%CI: 0.647, 0.834), were currently using contraceptive (IRR = 0.885, 95%CI: 0.814, 0.962), who had antenatal care visit four or more times visit (IRR = 0.841, 95%CI: 0.737,0.960), fathers whose level of education is secondary or above(IRR = 0.695, 95%CI: 0.594, 0.814), mothers who completed their primary school(IRR = 0.785, 95%CI: 0.713, 0.864), mothers who have birth interval greater than 36 months (IRR = 0.728, 95%CI: 0.676, 0.783), where the age of the mother at first birth is greater than 16 years(IRR = 0.711, 95%CI: 0.674, 0.750) associated with the small number of child death. While multiple births (IRR = 1.355, 95%CI: 1.249, 1.471, four and above birth order (IRR = 1.487, 95%CI: 1.373, 1.612) and had working father (IRR = 1.125, 95%CI: 1.049, 1.206) associated with a higher number of child death. The variance components for the random effects showed significant variation of child mortality between enumeration areas. Policies and programs aimed at addressing enumeration area variations in child mortality need to be formulated and their implementation must be strongly pursued. Efforts are also needed to extend educational programmers aimed at educating mothers on the benefits of the antenatal checkup before first birth, spacing their birth interval, having their child vaccinated, and selecting a safe place of delivery to reduce child mortality.

Influence of parental education on child mortality in Bangladesh: repeated cross-sectional surveys

Reducing the mortality of children under-5 (U5) is an essential part of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG). Although Bangladesh has made progress in reducing child mortality, there remain inequalities among different sociodemographic groups. Education is one particular key factor with a multidimensional impact on child health and survival. This study assessed the association between parental education and U5 mortality using repeated cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data. The risk of child death was substantially low among educated parents. Children of secondary or higher educated mother and father were about 30% (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.697, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.596 to 0.815, p< .001) and 26% (HR = 0.738, 95% CI 0.635 to 0.858, p < .001), respectively, less likely to die early. Children from wealthier households and born to mothers with long birth spacings were less likely to face an early death. The study findings emphasize on imparting education to parents as an intervention strategy to continue the reduction of child mortality rate in Bangladesh, which could be a policy direction toward achieving the SDGs.

Proximate determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia, 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health surveys: results from a survival analysis

BACKGROUND

In Ethiopia, large scale health care efforts had been done to promote infant health and survival. However, nationwide data is lacking on the survival status and proximate determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was aimed to identify the survival status and determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia using Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS).

METHODS

The data source for this study was the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Records of all 10,641 live births and survival informations of all 2826 infants born 5 years before the survey were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression model were employed to identify the proximate determinants associated with the infant mortality.

RESULTS

The results of Kaplan-Meier estimation showed that the highest infant deaths occurred in the early months of life immediately after birth and declined in the later months of follow-up time. About 65% of infant deaths occurred during the first month's of life. Using the Cox proportional hazard model we found that: mothers' level of education, preceding birth interval, plurality, size of child at birth and sex of child as significant predictors of infant mortality. The risk of dying in infancy was lower for babies of mothers with secondary education (RR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56-0.98), higher education (RR = 0.51, 95% CI:0.45-0.80), for preceding birth interval longer than 47 months (RR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.27, 0.92) and higher for birth interval shorter than 24 months (RR = 2.02, 95% CI:1.40-2.92), for multiple births (RR = 4.07, 95% CI: 1.14-14.50), for very small size of infants (RR = 3.74, 95% CI:1.73-8.12), for smaller than average size infants (RR = 3.23, 95% CI: 1.40-7.41) and for female infants (RR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.01-1.56) compared to the reference category.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant proportion of infants died during the study period of which nearly two third of deaths occurred during the first months of life. Thus, close monitoring and supporting reproductive age mothers to increase the uptakes of family planning and antenatal care and follow-up is highly recommended to increase the infant survival.

Rates and determinants of neonatal mortality in two rural sub-districts of Sylhet, Bangladesh

INTRODUCTION

Reducing neonatal mortality rate (NMR) is a challenge in many low- and middle-income countries including Bangladesh. In 2014, the estimated NMR in this country was 28 per 1,000 live births. This rate is higher in rural regions compared to the national average. Currently, Sylhet Division has the highest NMR in Bangladesh. Investigating rates and determinants of neonatal mortality in rural regions of this high-risk division is particularly important to implement evidence-based programs. This study examined rates and determinants of neonatal deaths in a large rural cohort in Sylhet Division.

METHODS

We analyzed data from a multi-country cohort study, Aetiology of Neonatal Infections in South Asia. From November 2011 to December 2013, this study was conducted in two rural sub-districts in Sylhet Division. Community health workers followed 28,960 pregnant women and their newborns up to two months postpartum and collected data on pregnancy outcomes and newborns' survival status. The NMR was obtained by dividing total number of neonatal deaths with all studied newborns. Logistic regression was employed to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for factors associated with neonatal mortality. Stata 14.0 was used for data analysis.

RESULTS

This study analyzed data of 21,227 newborns. The NMR was 43.4 (95% CI: 39.3-48.0) per 1,000 live births (N = 922). Multivariable analysis showed that the odds of neonatal mortality were significantly higher among male newborns (AOR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2-1.8), babies born before 34 weeks of gestation (AOR: 5.0, 95% CI: 4.1-6.1), those who were twins or triplets (AOR: 6.2, 95% CI: 3.6-10.9), and first-born child (AOR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.6-5.3). Additionally, maternal age 30-35 years (AOR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.-1.8), history of child death (AOR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2-2.2), and delivery complications (AOR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.6-2.6) had positive associations with neonatal deaths.

CONCLUSION

Public health programs in Bangladesh need to adopt a comprehensive strategy to address the individual, maternal, and intrapartum factors associated with neonatal mortality in rural regions. Interventions should aim to prioritize managing pre-term deliveries, first-born child, and delivery complications among pregnant women.

Exploring the intergenerational effects of undernutrition: association of maternal height with neonatal, infant and under-five mortality in Bangladesh

Background

Global or regional evidence showed maternal height as a strong predictor of child survival. However, there is limited information that confirms the intergenerational effect of short maternal height on the risk of offspring mortality in Bangladesh. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the association of maternal height with neonatal, infant and under-five mortality in Bangladesh.

Methods

It was a pooled analysis of data from four rounds of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014. We included singleton children aged 0-59 months born to mothers aged 15-49 years (n = 29 698). Mothers were interviewed to collect data on maternal and child characteristics, and socio-demographic information. Maternal height was measured using an adjustable measuring board calibrated in millimetres. We used STATA V.14.2 and adjusted for the cluster sampling design. Multivariate 'Modified Poisson Regression' was performed using stepwise backward elimination procedures to examine the association between maternal height and child death.

Results

In the adjusted model, every 1 cm increase maternal height was associated with a reduced risk of neonatal mortality (relative risk (RR) = 0.973, 95% CI 0.960 to 0.986), infant mortality (RR = 0.980, 95% CI 0.969 to 0.991) and under-five mortality (RR = 0.982, 95% CI 0.972 to 0.992). Children of the shortest mothers (height<145 cm) had 1.73 times greater risk of neonatal mortality, about 1.60 times greater risk of infant mortality and 1.48 times greater risk of under-five mortality compared with those of tall mothers (height≥155 cm). Among the children of the shortest mothers (height<145 cm), the absolute probabilities for neonatal, infant and under-five mortality were 4.4%, 6.0% and 6.5%, respectively, while for the children of the tall mothers (height≥ 155 cm), the absolute probabilities for neonatal, infant and under-five mortality were 2.6%, 3.7 %, and 4.4%, respectively.

Conclusion

These findings suggest a robust intergenerational linkage between short maternal height and the risk of neonatal, infant and under-five mortally in Bangladesh.