Predicting the impacts of climate change on a globally distributed species: the case of the loggerhead turtle

Modeling the impacts of natural and human factors on the hatching success of the loggerhead sea turtle Caretta caretta along the coasts of Italy

Coastal biodiversity is globally threatened by climate change and human pressures, including habitat destruction, overfishing, eutrophication, and pollution, which alter natural coastal ecosystem processes. Caretta caretta, hereafter referred to as loggerhead sea turtle, is listed as "Vulnerable" at global level and "Least Concern" in the Mediterranean Sea by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This species is the only sea turtle nesting along Italian coasts, making it crucial to understand the factors affecting its reproductive success for effective conservation strategies. However, key aspects of the ecology and life cycle in Italian waters, such as spatial distribution, reproductive site selection, and factors influencing reproductive outcomes and migratory movements, remain unknown. This study aimed to identify factors influencing the reproductive success of the loggerhead sea turtle. Data from 237 nests between 2019 and 2023 across 14 Italian regions were recovered, quality-checked, and analyzed. A statistical model predicting reproductive success, represented by hatching success, was developed, incorporating various environmental variables from marine and terrestrial spheres, along with local pressures from urbanization and anthropization. These predictors were related to hatching success using a generalized linear model (GLM) accounting for zero-inflated data. The best models identified both environmental variables, such as temperature and extreme wave events, and human-controlled factors, including the presence of dunes and coastal urbanization, as key predictors of hatching success. Coastal anthropization and beachfront disturbances were particularly important. While human activities can pose notable challenges to the loggerhead sea turtle, their identification also offers opportunities for enhancing its reproductive success through targeted management actions focused on mitigating pressures. Our findings highlight the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts to address both local and global challenges to protect and enhance the reproductive success of the loggerhead sea turtle and possibly other coastal species. Effective management can and should focus on mitigating human-induced pressures. Policymakers and conservationists need to work together to implement strategies that consider both the immediate human impacts and the long-term effects of climate change, ensuring the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems and the protection of endangered species like the loggerhead sea turtle.

Potential drivers and implications of a balanced breeding sex ratio in a small population of an imperiled species with environmental sex determination

Small populations of imperiled species are susceptible to the negative consequences of skewed sex-ratios. In imperiled species with environmental sex determination such as sea turtles, examining sex ratios across a range of environments and population abundance levels can provide insight into factors that influence population resilience, which can then be the foci of management plans for these species. Breeding sex ratios (the ratio of actively breeding males to females during a reproductive season; BSRs) extrapolated from genetic parentage analyses are a common approach for enumerating sex ratios in sea turtles. Such analyses also allow for the characterization of multiple paternity within sea turtle clutches, which should reflect BSRs and breeding behaviors. We characterized the first BSR for a breeding assemblage of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) belonging to the temperate, low-abundance Northern Gulf of Mexico Recovery Unit using genotypes of 16 microsatellite loci from nesting females and hatchlings. Unlike prior studies at both more-tropical and more-temperate, and higher-abundance, Recovery Units in this region, we found a balanced BSR of 1.3:1 males:female and a low incidence (~17%) of multiple paternity. This suggests that there are relatively few males breeding at this assemblage and within this Recovery Unit. Beaches in this region are expected to produce substantial numbers of male hatchlings based on sand temperature data. The relative dearth of mature males may then be due to hydrologic disturbances that disproportionately affect the fitness and survival of male hatchlings, or due to demographic stochasticity. More work is needed to study the factors that might influence male hatchling production and fitness in this region, particularly as climate change is predicted to lead to feminization in global sea turtle populations. Our work demonstrates the broad utility of characterizing BSRs and other sex ratios across a range of populations in imperiled, environmentally sensitive species.

The impact of climate change on sea turtles: Current knowledge, scientometrics, and mitigation strategies

Sea turtles are one of the most significant groups of marine species, playing a key role in the sustainability and conservation of marine ecosystems and the food chain. These emblematic species are threatened by several natural and anthropogenic pressures, and climate change is increasingly reported as one of the most important threats to sea turtles, affecting sea turtles at all stages of their life cycle and at both their marine and coastal habitats. The effect of climate change is expressed as global warming, sea-level rise, extreme storms, and alterations in predation and diseases' patterns, posing a potentially negative impact on sea turtles. In this systematic review, the author presented the current knowledge and research outcomes on the impact of climate change on sea turtles. Moreover, this study determined trends and hotspots in keywords, country collaborations, authors, and publications in the field through a scientometric analysis. Finally, this article reviewed proposed mitigation strategies by researchers, marine protected area (MPA) managers, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to reduce the impact of climate change on the conservation of sea turtles.

New colonisers drive the increase of the emerging loggerhead turtle nesting in Western Mediterranean

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) is sensitive to climate change and is responding by colonising the Western Mediterranean. To understand the rapid nesting increase in recent years in Spain, we sampled 45 hatchlings from 8 nests between 2016 and 2019. We sequenced a mtDNA D-loop region, genotyped 2291 SNPs using 2bRAD and collected data on clutch size, hatching success, and incubation duration. We confirmed that the colonisation has a Mediterranean and Atlantic mixed origin and we detected that these nests were laid by different females, except for two nests within the same season. Our results suggest that the recent increase in nesting is due to an increase in the number of colonising individuals rather than females born in the same area returning to breed. We hypothesize that this increase in the number of colonisers results from successful conservation efforts, feminisation of the populations of origin and earlier sexual maturation. However, the percentage of offspring females produced in Spain suggests that future returning individuals will aid to the settlement of the new population. These results allow defining the current status of this colonisation although future efforts are needed to detect remigrants to confirm the establishment of a resident population.

The first high-quality chromosome-level genome of Eretmochelys imbricata using HiFi and Hi-C data

Eretmochelys imbricata, a critically endangered sea turtle inhabiting tropical oceans and protected across the world, had an unknown genome sequence until now. In this study, we used HiFi reads and Hi-C technology to assemble a high-quality, chromosome-level genome of E. imbricata. The genome size was 2,138.26 Mb, with contig N50 length of 123.49 Mb and scaffold N50 of 137.21 Mb. Approximately 97.52% of the genome sequence was anchored to 28 chromosomes. A total of 20,206 protein-coding genes were predicted. We also analyzed the evolutionary relationships, gene family expansions, and positive selection of E. imbricata. Our results revealed that E. imbricata diverged from Chelonia mydas 38 million years ago and had enriched olfactory receptors and aging-related genes. Our genome will be useful for studying E. imbricata and its conservation.

Biogeography of Fungal Communities Associated with Pinus sylvestris L. and Picea abies (L.) H. Karst. along the Latitudinal Gradient in Europe

We assessed the diversity and composition of fungal communities in different functional tissues and the rhizosphere soil of Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies stands along the latitudinal gradient of these tree species distributions in Europe to model possible changes in fungal communities imposed by climate change. For each tree species, living needles, shoots, roots, and the rhizosphere soil were sampled and subjected to high-throughput sequencing. Results showed that the latitude and the host tree species had a limited effect on the diversity and composition of fungal communities, which were largely explained by the environmental variables of each site and the substrate they colonize. The mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation had a strong effect on root fungal communities, isothermality on needle fungal communities, mean temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the driest month on shoot fungal communities, and precipitation seasonality on soil fungal communities. Fungal communities of both tree species are predicted to shift to habitats with a lower annual temperature amplitude and with increasing precipitation during the driest month, but the suitability of these habitats as compared to the present conditions is predicted to decrease in the future.

A morphologist, a modeler, and an endocrinologist consider sea turtle sex ratios in a changing climate. Some wine was involved

Because the sex of sea turtles is determined by temperature during embryonic development, many populations are vulnerable to increased bias in primary sex ratios as global temperatures rise. Higher temperatures produce more females, and some populations are already showing years with all-female offspring production. But because sea turtles take decades to mature and have long adult lifespans, these primary sex ratio biases can take years to impact adult sex ratios, and the males from cohorts that are produced during cooler years may compensate for the sex ratio bias if they can breed more frequently and with multiple females. To date, little is known about male sea turtle reproductive behavior, making predictions of sex ratio skew impacts highly speculative. We used data from southern Florida loggerhead sea turtle nests to parameterize a simple population model to explore the effects of an increase in the proportion of female hatchlings over time on population trends, effective population size (Ne), and quasi-extinction probability. We also tested the effects of increasing the frequency of relatively high male production years to simulate potential mitigation strategies. While heuristic rather than predictive, our results expectedly show a rise in nest counts due to the increase in females over time, followed by population decline as males become limiting. Population collapse due to increased female bias will take many decades to occur, but sex ratio skew can have large impacts on Ne, and thus increase the potential for inbreeding. An increase in the frequency of male production years, even just one additional “good male year” per decade, can help mitigate these outcomes if the rate of feminization is not too rapid. Male breeding frequency and mating success are critical drivers of the results and must be prioritized for research.

Minor Sea Turtle Nesting Areas May Remain Unnoticed without Specific Monitoring: The Case of the Largest Mediterranean Island (Sicily, Italy)

Simple Summary

Before protecting sea turtles’ nesting sites from coastal development, these sites must be identified and evaluated. This is particularly difficult with minor nesting sites distributed over large areas. We report on the case of Sicily, the largest Mediterranean island with 464 km of sandy shores, where sea turtle nesting activity was basically unknown until recent years when specific projects focused on this topic. This may be the case for many other areas. A total of 323 nests have been reported in the 1944–2021 period (mostly in the last decade). However, the real number of nests occurring annually is still unknown and more research and monitoring is needed. In sea turtles, sex is determined by the incubation temperature, with high temperatures producing more females, and with global warming the scarcity of males may become a problem. Nests in Sicily seem to produce more males and therefore this area may be important for the species’ conservation in the future.

Abstract

Identifying coastal tracts suitable for sea turtle reproduction is crucial for sea turtle conservation in a context of fast coastal development and climate change. In contrast to nesting aggregations, diffuse nesting is elusive and assessing nesting levels is challenging. A total of 323 nesting events by the loggerhead sea turtle Caretta caretta have been reported in Sicily, the largest Mediterranean island, in the 1944–2021 period, mostly in the last decade. Specific monitoring efforts are the most likely explanation for such an increase and shows that sea turtle nesting may be underestimated or completely ignored in many areas with scattered nesting. The real nesting level along the 464 km sandy shores of Sicily is still unknown and more research is needed. The observed incubation period was relatively long (57 d) suggesting that a majority of males are produced in Sicily, in contrast to the typical female-biased sex ratio of sea turtles. In a context of climate warming producing sex ratios more skewed towards females, the potential of Sicily as a male-producing area should be further investigated. Other reproductive parameters are provided, such as clutch size and hatching and emergence success. A negative effect of relocation on the latter two was observed.

The architecture of assisted colonisation in sea turtles: building new populations in a biodiversity crisis

Due to changing environmental conditions, many species will have to migrate or occupy new suitable areas to avoid potential extinction in the current biodiversity crisis. Long-lived animals are especially vulnerable and ex-situ conservation actions can provide solutions through assisted colonisations. However, there is little empirical evidence on the process of founding new populations for such species or the feasibility of assisted colonisations as a viable conservation measure. Here, we combined genetics with reproductive data to study the rise of two wild populations of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Cayman Islands as a possible outcome of a reintroduction program started 50 years ago. We show that both populations are highly related to the captive population but rapidly diverged due to genetic drift. Individuals from the reintroduced populations showed high levels of nest fidelity, within and across nesting seasons, indicating that philopatry may help reinforce the success of new populations. Additionally, we show that reintroduction from captive populations has not undermined the reproductive fitness of first generation individuals. Sea turtle reintroduction programs can, therefore, establish new populations but require scientific evaluation of costs and benefits and should be monitored over time to ensure viability in the long-term.

Empirical evidence on the process of founding new populations for assisted colonisations is limited. This work examined two wild populations of green turtles in the Cayman Islands following a reintroduction program started 50 years ago. They show both populations are highly related to the captive population and that philopatry may reinforce the success of new populations.

Divergence and hybridization in sea turtles: Inferences from genome data show evidence of ancient gene flow between species

Reconstructing past events of hybridization and population size changes are required to understand speciation mechanisms and current patterns of genetic diversity, and ultimately contribute to species' conservation. Sea turtles are ancient species currently facing anthropogenic threats including climate change, fisheries, and illegal hunting. Five of the seven extant sea turtle species are known to currently hybridize, especially along the Brazilian coast where some populations can have ~32%-42% of hybrids. Although frequently observed today, it is not clear what role hybridization plays in the evolutionary diversification of this group of reptiles. In this study, we generated whole genome resequencing data of the five globally distributed sea turtle species to estimate a calibrated phylogeny and the population size dynamics, and to understand the role of hybridization in shaping the genomes of these ancient species. Our results reveal discordant species divergence dates between mitochondrial and nuclear genomes, with a high frequency of conflicting trees throughout the nuclear genome suggesting that some sea turtle species frequently hybridized in the past. The reconstruction of the species' demography showed a general decline in effective population sizes with no signs of recovery, except for the leatherback sea turtle. Furthermore, we discuss the influence of reference bias in our estimates. We show long-lasting ancestral gene flow events within Chelonioidea that continued for millions of years after initial divergence. Speciation with gene flow is a common pattern in marine species, and it raises questions whether current hybridization events should be considered as a part of these species' evolutionary history or a conservation issue.

Shift in demographic structure and increased reproductive activity of loggerhead turtles in the French Mediterranean Sea revealed by long-term monitoring

Climate-induced environmental changes are profoundly impacting marine ecosystems and altering species distribution worldwide. Migratory organisms, including sea turtles, are expected to be particularly sensitive to these variations. Here, we studied changes in the size structure and reproductive activity of loggerhead turtles in the French Mediterranean over 30 years. Overall, there was a significant increase in the size of observed loggerheads between 1990 and 2020. However, this increase was only significant during the breeding/nesting season (May to September) and was driven by the increased presence of adults. Furthermore, nesting activity along the French coast was detected in 2002 for the first time in more than 50 years, and has become frequent after 2014, with nests discovered every year. The number of eggs laid as well as incubation duration and success varied among sites but fell within the range reported at established Mediterranean nesting sites. These observations, along with recent reports of breeding activity and evidence of significant sea surface warming, suggest that the north-western Mediterranean basin has become increasingly suitable to loggerhead turtles. We postulate that this range expansion is the result of climate change and propose that emerging nesting activity in France should be closely monitored and guarded against human activities.

Incorporating Geographical Scale and Multiple Environmental Factors to Delineate the Breeding Distribution of Sea Turtles

Temperature is often used to infer how climate influences wildlife distributions; yet, other parameters also contribute, separately and combined, with effects varying across geographical scales. Here, we used an unoccupied aircraft system to explore how environmental parameters affect the regional distribution of the terrestrial and marine breeding habitats of threatened loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta). Surveys spanned four years and ~620 km coastline of western Greece, encompassing low (<10 nests/km) to high (100–500 nests/km) density nesting areas. We recorded 2395 tracks left by turtles on beaches and 1928 turtles occupying waters adjacent to these beaches. Variation in beach track and inwater turtle densities was explained by temperature, offshore prevailing wind, and physical marine and terrestrial factors combined. The highest beach-track densities (400 tracks/km) occurred on beaches with steep slopes and higher sand temperatures, sheltered from prevailing offshore winds. The highest inwater turtle densities (270 turtles/km) occurred over submerged sandbanks, with warmer sea temperatures associated with offshore wind. Most turtles (90%) occurred over nearshore submerged sandbanks within 10 km of beaches supporting the highest track densities, showing the strong linkage between optimal marine and terrestrial environments for breeding. Our findings demonstrate the utility of UASs in surveying marine megafauna and environmental data at large scales and the importance of integrating multiple factors in climate change models to predict species distributions.

Effects of global warming on species with temperature-dependent sex determination: Bridging the gap between empirical research and management

Global warming could threaten over 400 species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) worldwide, including all species of sea turtle. During embryonic development, rising temperatures might lead to the overproduction of one sex and, in turn, could bias populations' sex ratios to an extent that threatens their persistence. If climate change predictions are correct, and biased sex ratios reduce population viability, species with TSD may go rapidly extinct unless adaptive mechanisms, whether behavioural, physiological or molecular, exist to buffer these temperature-driven effects. Here, we summarize the discovery of the TSD phenomenon and its still elusive evolutionary significance. We then review the molecular pathways underpinning TSD in model species, along with the hormonal mechanisms that interact with temperatures to determine an individual's sex. To illustrate evolutionary mechanisms that can affect sex determination, we focus on sea turtle biology, discussing both the adaptive potential of this threatened TSD taxon, and the risks associated with conservation mismanagement.

Sexual Development and the Environment: Conclusions from 40 Years of Theory

In this review, we consider the insight that has been gained through theoretical examination of environmental sex determination (ESD) and thermolability - how theory has progressed our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics associated with ESD, the transitional pathways between different modes of sex determination, and the underlying mechanisms. Following decades of theory on the adaptive benefits of ESD, several hypotheses seem promising. These hypotheses focus on the importance of differential fitness (sex-specific effects of temperature on fitness) in generating selection for ESD, but highlight alternative ways differential fitness arises: seasonal impacts on growth, sex-specific ages of maturation, and sex-biased dispersal. ESD has the potential to generate biased sex ratios quite easily, leading to complex feedbacks between the ecology and evolution of ESD. Frequency-dependent selection on sex acts on ESD-related traits, driving local adaptation or plasticity to restore equilibrium sex ratio. However, migration and overlapping generations ("mixing") diminish local adaptation and leave each cohort/population with the potential for biased sex ratios. Incorporating mechanism into ecology and evolution models reveals similarities between different sex-determining systems. Dosage and gene regulatory network models of sexual development are beginning to shed light on how temperature sensitivity and thresholds may arise. The unavoidable temperature sensitivity in sex-determining systems inherent to these models suggests that evolutionary transitions between genotypic sex determination (GSD) and temperature-dependent sex determination, and between different forms of GSD, are simple and elegant. Theoretical models are often best-served by considering a single piece of a puzzle; however, there is much to gain from reflecting on all of the pieces together in one integrative picture.

Projected shifts in loggerhead sea turtle thermal habitat in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean due to climate change

It is well established that sea turtles are vulnerable to atmospheric and oceanographic shifts associated with climate change. However, few studies have formally projected how their seasonal marine habitat may shift in response to warming ocean temperatures. Here we used a high-resolution global climate model and a large satellite tagging dataset to project changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for loggerheads along the northeastern continental shelf of the United States. Between 2009 and 2018, we deployed 196 satellite tags on loggerheads within the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) of the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf region, a seasonal foraging area. Tag location data combined with depth and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) were used to characterize the species’ current thermal range in the MAB. The best-fitting model indicated that the habitat envelope for tagged loggerheads consisted of SST ranging from 11.0° to 29.7 °C and depths between 0 and 105.0 m. The calculated core bathythermal range consisted of SSTs between 15.0° and 28.0 °C and depths between 8.0 and 92.0 m, with the highest probability of presence occurred in regions with SST between 17.7° and 25.3 °C and at depths between 26.1 and 74.2 m. This model was then forced by a high-resolution global climate model under a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ to project loggerhead probability of presence over the next 80 years. Our results suggest that loggerhead thermal habitat and seasonal duration will likely increase in northern regions of the NW Atlantic shelf. This change in spatiotemporal range for sea turtles in a region of high anthropogenic use may prompt adjustments to the localized protected species conservation measures.

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

Climate change is a threat to marine turtles that is expected to affect all of their life stages. To guide future research, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic, highlighting knowledge gains and research gaps since a similar previous review in 2009. Most research has been focussed on the terrestrial life history phase, where expected impacts will range from habitat loss and decreased reproductive success to feminization of populations, but changes in reproductive periodicity, shifts in latitudinal ranges, and changes in foraging success are all expected in the marine life history phase. Models have been proposed to improve estimates of primary sex ratios, while technological advances promise a better understanding of how climate can influence different life stages and habitats. We suggest a number of research priorities for an improved understanding of how climate change may impact marine turtles, including: improved estimates of primary sex ratios, assessments of the implications of female-biased sex ratios and reduced male production, assessments of the variability in upper thermal limits of clutches, models of beach sediment movement under sea level rise, and assessments of impacts on foraging grounds. Lastly, we suggest that it is not yet possible to recommend manipulating aspects of turtle nesting ecology, as the evidence base with which to understand the results of such interventions is not robust enough, but that strategies for mitigation of stressors should be helpful, providing they consider the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic-induced threats to marine turtles, and focus on increasing resilience.

Environmental and anthropogenic factors affecting nesting site selection by sea turtles

Understanding the environmental and anthropogenic factors that affect nesting site selection by sea turtles is key to maintaining priority conservation areas. The species Lepidochelys olivacea, Caretta caretta, and Eretmochelys imbricata nest annually on the island of Comandatuba (Una, northeastern Brazil), where this survey was conducted. We evaluated the temporal and spatial distribution of nests during the seasons 2008/2009 to 2014/2015 and 2017/2018. In the last season, we further examined the environmental and anthropogenic factors that influence different nesting performances. We selected six sample areas with different nesting events (high, medium, and low), and recorded the following characteristics: beach slope, sediment grain size, vegetation richness, type of dune, anthropization, and final nest condition. A significant occurrence of nesting was observed in November and December . The spatial distribution of the nests varied over the seasons, with a greater tendency to nest in the south of the island. Higher frequency of anthropization and low slope of the beach were significant factors for areas with a smaller number of nests. Predation of turtle nests may be associated with areas of greater anthropization. Our findings have implications for the conservation and monitoring of nesting sites during reproduction seasons and provide further insight into the nesting dynamics of marginal sea turtle populations.

Impact of climate change on sustainable livestock production and existence of wildlife and marine species in the South Pacific island countries: a review

Climate change poses a significant threat to humanity by intensifying multiple hazards. South Pacific Island countries (SPICs) are affected and face a dire challenge to survival. Sea level rise is reducing the already limited land for human and animal habitation. Tropical cyclones and droughts are having devastating effects on the lives of humans and animals. Tropical cyclone Winston, for example, destroyed infrastructure for humans and animals in some parts of Fiji, and infectious diseases are spreading to regions where they are not commonly seen following cyclones and floods. Likewise, climate change is making droughts worse. Droughts are destroying crops and pasturelands and making freshwater unavailable for human and animal populations in the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu. There is an urgent need to ascertain the best approaches to tackle the events, which are already happening. Short-term changes can be managed at local levels through public awareness campaigns, understanding the weather patterns to prepare for disasters, reclaiming land, improving livestock breeds, introducing zoos and wildlife sanctuaries and inventing economically feasible technologies to harvest water. Long-term solutions depend on the implementation of international agreements, international aid and collective effort.

Sea Turtle Population Genomic Discovery: Global and Locus-Specific Signatures of Polymorphism, Selection, and Adaptive Potential

In the era of genomics, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have become a preferred molecular marker to study signatures of selection and population structure and to enable improved population monitoring and conservation of vulnerable populations. We apply a SNP calling pipeline to assess population differentiation, visualize linkage disequilibrium, and identify loci with sex-specific genotypes of 45 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) sampled from the southeastern coast of the United States, including 42 individuals experimentally confirmed for gonadal sex. By performing reference-based SNP calling in independent runs of Stacks, 3,901–6,998 SNPs and up to 30 potentially sex-specific genotypes were identified. Up to 68 pairs of loci were found to be in complete linkage disequilibrium, potentially indicating regions of natural selection and adaptive evolution. This study provides a valuable SNP diagnostic workflow and a large body of new biomarkers for guiding targeted studies of sea turtle genome evolution and for managing legally protected nonmodel iconic species that have high economic and ecological importance but limited genomic resources.

A Review of the Effects of Climate Change on Chelonians

Climate change is occurring at an unprecedented rate and has begun to modify the distribution and phenology of organisms worldwide. Chelonians are expected to be particularly vulnerable due to limited dispersal capabilities as well as widespread temperature-dependent sex determination. The number of papers published about the effects of climate change on turtles has increased exponentially over the last decade; here, I review the data from peer-reviewed publications to assess the likely impacts of climate change on individuals, populations, and communities. Based upon these studies future research should focus on: (1) Individual responses to climate change, particularly with respect to thermal biology, phenology, and microhabitat selection; (2) improving species distribution models by incorporating fine-scale environmental variables as well as physiological processes; (3) identifying the consequences of skewed sex ratios; and (4) assessments of community resilience and the development of methods to mitigate climate change impacts. Although detailed management recommendations are not possible at this point, careful consideration should be given regarding how to manage low vagility species as habitats shift poleward. In the worst-case scenario, proactive management may be required in order to ensure that widespread losses do not occur.

Influence of temperature variation on incubation period, hatching success, sex ratio, and phenotypes in Caiman latirostris

Temperature is crucial for reptiles, also during embryonic development, particularly for species with temperature-dependent sex determination. Under natural conditions, Broad-snouted caiman (Caiman latirostris) eggs are influenced by thermal changes in the interior of the nest related to the external environmental temperature. As nests are subject to variations in temperature and most lab studies on crocodilian incubation have been carried out at constant temperatures, we were interested in determining how temperature fluctuations may affect the development of caiman embryos. We investigated the effects of incubation at constant temperatures (31°C, 32°C, and 33°C) and fluctuating temperatures (31 ± 2, 32 ± 1, and 32 ± 2°C) on the following aspects: incubation period duration, hatching success, sex ratio, total length, and body mass of C. latirostris hatchlings. Eggs incubated at 31°C produced 100% females, those at 32°C produced 71.6% females (however, the sex ratio was nest related), and at 33°C produced 100% males. We found a masculinizing effect when incubation was at 31 ± 2°C compared with a constant 31°C; and temperature fluctuations at 32°C (32 ± 1 and 32 ± 2°C) had a negative effect on hatchlings size and mass, and hatching success compared with constant incubation temperatures of 32°C and 33°C. Finally, the effect of temperature variation during the incubation period on sex ratio, hatching success, and phenotype depends on the mean temperature, as the fluctuation around 31°C affected the sex ratios and incubation period, and the fluctuation around 32°C affected hatchling success and size.

Incubation and water temperatures influence the performances of loggerhead sea turtle hatchlings during the dispersal phase

Artificial manipulation of incubation temperature has been proposed as a potential strategy for mitigating the effects of climate change on sea turtles for which sex determination is temperature-dependent, but thermal manipulation may also affect hatchling survival. Here, we demonstrated that incubation and water temperatures influenced several performance traits that contribute to the survival of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) during the post-hatchling dispersal phase. Hatchlings from warm incubation temperatures (31 °C) had significantly shorter incubation periods, higher initial swimming performance, lower sustained swimming performance, and lower growth rates during the first three weeks post-hatching, as well as higher blood glucose concentrations, than those from cool incubation temperatures (27.5 °C). Hatchlings in warm water temperatures (30 °C) exhibited significantly greater swimming performance than those in cool water temperatures (27 °C). Our results indicated that altering incubation temperatures indirectly influences the survival of loggerhead hatchlings by modifying their swimming performance and growth rates, which may affect hatchling predator-avoidance capability. Moreover, thermal manipulation may alter the incubation period, exposing hatchling to water temperatures that they would not otherwise normally experience, which may affect swimming performance. Our results suggest that such conservation strategies may influence their survival, and thus should be carefully considered.

Supplemental feeding and other anthropogenic threats to green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Canary Islands

Green turtles are found in the waters of the Canary Islands but little is known about the ecology and anthropogenic pressures that threaten them. Our results have revealed that juvenile green turtles, ranging in curve carapace length from 26.9-81.0cm, are regularly found in the archipelago and originate from rookeries in both the eastern and western Atlantic. Photo-identification and satellite tracking showed high levels of site fidelity to coastal foraging grounds associated with seagrass meadows, but stable isotope analysis indicated animal-based omnivorous diets after settlement on the continental shelf, with no increase in the consumption of macrophytes as the turtles grew. Most turtles exhibited high levels of some blood biochemical markers associated with a high consumption of proteins and fat. In addition, we determined levels of some organic and inorganic pollutants. Supplemental feeding may also contribute to explain the high prevalence of hooking and boat strikes in the green turtles brought to wildlife rescue centers as compared with loggerhead turtles. Regulatory measures and surveillance should be urgently implemented in order to improve the status of the species in the archipelago.

Sporadic nesting reveals long distance colonisation in the philopatric loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta)

The colonisation of new suitable habitats is crucial for species survival at evolutionary scale under changing environmental conditions. However, colonisation potential may be limited by philopatry that facilitates exploiting successful habitats across generations. We examine the mechanisms of long distance dispersal of the philopatric loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) by analysing 40 sporadic nesting events in the western Mediterranean. The analysis of a fragment of the mitochondrial DNA and 7 microsatellites of 121 samples from 18 of these nesting events revealed that these nests were colonising events associated with juveniles from distant populations feeding in nearby foraging grounds. Considering the temperature-dependent sex determination of the species, we simulated the effect of the incubation temperature and propagule pressure on a potential colonisation scenario. Our results indicated that colonisation will succeed if warm temperature conditions, already existing in some of the beaches in the area, extend to the whole western Mediterranean. We hypothesize that the sporadic nesting events in developmental foraging grounds may be a mechanism to overcome philopatry limitations thus increasing the dispersal capabilities of the species and the adaptability to changing environments. Sporadic nesting in the western Mediterranean can be viewed as potential new populations in a scenario of rising temperatures.

Short heatwaves during fluctuating incubation regimes produce females under temperature-dependent sex determination with implications for sex ratios in nature

Patterns of temperature fluctuations in nature affect numerous biological processes, yet, empirical studies often utilize constant temperature treatments. This can limit our understanding of how thermally sensitive species respond to ecologically relevant temperatures. Research on turtles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) provides good examples of this, since nest temperatures from many populations rarely exceed those necessary to produce females under constant laboratory conditions. We hypothesized that exposure to brief periods of warm temperatures (i.e., heat waves) are integral to sex determination in species with TSD, which requires tests that move beyond constant temperatures. We exposed Trachemys scripta embryos from multiple populations and across the nesting season to heat waves of variable durations and quantified sex ratios. We found that embryos from all populations were highly sensitive to brief exposures to female producing temperatures; only 7.9 days of exposure produced a 50:50 sex ratio, but the response varied across the nesting season. From these findings, a model was developed to estimate sex ratios from field temperature traces, and this model outperformed traditional methods. Overall, these results enhance our understanding of TSD and emphasize the importance of using biologically relevant temperatures when studying thermally sensitive processes.

Going back to the roots: finding a strategy for the management of nesting loggerhead sea turtles in New Caledonia

Incubation temperature plays a vital role in sea turtle life history because it influences embryonic growth, sex determination and hatchling attributes such as body size, residual yolk size, self-righting ability, crawling speed and swimming speed. For these reasons there is concern that predicted increases in air temperature, as a result of global warming, will increase nest temperatures and result in decreased hatching success, decrease or cease male hatchling production, and decreased hatchling quality. In a previous study examining incubation temperature at a loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) rookery located at La Roche Percée, New Caledonia, high nest temperatures and root invasion by beach morning glory (Ipomoea pes-caprae) were found to adversely affect hatching success and locomotor performance. In the current study, we relocated loggerhead turtle nests into shaded hatcheries. Shading nests decreased sand and nest temperatures and was predicted to increase male hatchling production slightly, but nest emergence success was decreased due to invasion of cottonwood (Hibiscus tiliaceus) roots into some nests. Using shaded structures is a viable and affordable management option to counteract the high sand temperatures found on some sea turtle nesting beaches, but these shade structures need to be located some distance from trees and other plants to ensure that root penetration into nests does not adversely affect nest emergence success.

Climate change increases the production of female hatchlings at a northern sea turtle rookery

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures, along with major adjustments to precipitation, throughout the 21st century. Species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination are highly susceptible to such changes since the incubation environment influences critical offspring characteristics such as survival and sex ratio. Here we show that the mean incubation duration of loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests from a high-density nesting beach on Bald Head Island, North Carolina, USA has decreased significantly over the past 25 yr. This decrease in incubation duration is significantly positively correlated with mean air temperature and negatively correlated with mean precipitation during the nesting season. Additionally, although no change in hatching success was detected during this same period, a potentially detrimental consequence of shorter incubation durations is that they lead to the production of primarily female offspring. Given that global temperatures are predicted to increase by as much as 4°C over the next century, the mass feminization of sea turtle hatchlings is a high-priority concern. While presently limited in number, studies using long-term data sets to examine the temporal correlation between offspring characteristics and climatic trends are essential for understanding the scope and direction of climate change effects on species persistence.

Linking loggerhead locations: using multiple methods to determine the origin of sea turtles in feeding grounds

Many marine megavertebrate taxa, including sea turtles, disperse widely from their hatching or birthing locations but display natal homing as adults. We used flipper tagging, satellite tracking and genetics to identify the origin of loggerhead turtles living in Amvrakikos Gulf, Greece. This location has been identified as hosting regionally important numbers of large-juvenile to adult sized turtles that display long-term residency and/or association to the area, and also presents a male biased sex ratio for adults. A total of 20 individuals were linked to nesting areas in Greece through flipper tagging and satellite telemetry, with the majority (16) associated with Zakynthos Island. One additional female was tracked from Amvrakikos Gulf to Turkey where she likely nested. Mitochondrial DNA mixed stock analyses of turtles captured in Amvrakikos Gulf (n = 95) indicated 82% of individuals originated from Greek nesting stocks, mainly from Zakynthos Island (63%), with lesser contributions from central Turkey, Cyprus and Libya. These results suggest that the male-biased sex ratio found in Amvrakikos Gulf may be driven by the fact that males breed twice as frequently on Zakynthos, resulting in their using foraging grounds of greater proximity to the breeding site. Conservation measures in localised foraging habitats for the protection of marine vertebrates, such as sea turtles, may have positive impacts on several disparate breeding stocks and the use of multiple methods to determine source populations can indicate the relative effectiveness of these measures.

Female-Bias in a Long-Term Study of a Species with Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination: Monitoring Sex Ratios for Climate Change Research

Alterations have occurred and continue to manifest in the Earth's biota as a result of climate change. Animals exhibiting temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), including sea turtles, are perhaps most vulnerable to a warming of the Earth as highly skewed sex ratios can result, potentially leading to population extinction resulting from decreased male recruitment. Recent studies have begun to quantify climate change impacts to sea turtle populations, especially in terms of predicting effects on hatchling sex ratios. However, given the inherent difficulty in studying sex ratios at this life stage, a more accurate assessment of changes in population sex ratios might be derived by evaluating the juvenile portion of foraging aggregations. We investigated the long-term trend in sex ratio of a juvenile loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle population inhabiting Pamlico and Core Sounds, North Carolina, USA. We used plasma testosterone reference ranges measured using radioimmunoassay (RIA) to assign sex for 959 turtles and confirmed sex assignment of a subset (N = 58) of the sampled turtles through laparoscopic examination of their gonads. Our results demonstrate that for this particular population of loggerheads, sex ratios (3Females:1Male) had not significantly changed over a 10 year period (1998-2007), nor showed any significant difference among 5-cm straight carapace length (SCL) size classes. Ultimately, these findings provide a basis for comparison with future sex ratios, and highlight the importance of establishing similar long-term studies monitoring secondary, rather than primary, sex ratios, so that needed mitigation measures to climate change impacts can be implemented.

Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°-45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3-5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50-74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population.

Seasonal heterogeneity of ocean warming: a mortality sink for ectotherm colonizers

Distribution shifts are a common adaptive response of marine ectotherms to climate change but the pace of redistribution depends on species-specific traits that may promote or hamper expansion to northern habitats. Here we show that recently, the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has begun to nest steadily beyond the northern edge of the species' range in the Mediterranean basin. This range expansion is associated with a significant warming of spring and summer sea surface temperature (SST) that offers a wider thermal window suitable for nesting. However, we found that post-hatchlings departing from this location experience low winter SST that may affect their survival and thus hamper the stabilization of the site by self-recruitment. The inspection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections and observational data on SST trends shows that, despite the annual warming for this century, winter SST show little or no trends. Therefore, thermal constraints during the early developmental phase may limit the chance of population growth at this location also in the near future, despite increasingly favourable conditions at the nesting sites. Quantifying and understanding the interplay between dispersal and environmental changes at all life stages is critical for predicting ectotherm range expansion with climate warming.