Within-host bacterial diversity hinders accurate reconstruction of transmission networks from genomic distance data

Genetic diversity of Salmonella enterica during acute human infections

The ubiquitous bacterial pathogen Salmonella enterica is the causative agent of both enteric fever and gastroenteritis. Despite its significant global health burden, we lack an understanding of its genetic diversity during acute infection, with ramifications for treatment and prevention. Here, we investigated within-host infection diversity of acute salmonellosis using whole-genome sequencing of blood or stool isolates obtained from 23 different patients. We found that intestinal infections exhibited greater genetic variation than blood infections, including in their plasmid content. While same-patient isolates were separated by 10 single nucleotide polymorphisms or less, they often differed in the carriage of genes or alleles, including those associated with antibiotic resistance or virulence. Given the longstanding emphasis on single colony isolation in clinical and laboratory microbiology, these findings have implications for how we both study evolution and transmission and how we treat salmonellosis in an age of increasing antibiotic resistance.

Co-carriage of diverse vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium ST80-lineages by 70% of patients in an Irish hospital

Background

Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm) are significant nosocomial pathogens. Irish VREfm comprise diverse vanA-encoding ST80-complex type (CT) lineages. Recent studies indicate that within-patient VREfm diversity could confound surveillance. This study investigated the intra-host VREfm genetic diversity among colonized Irish hospital patients.

Methods

Rectal VREfm (n = 150) from 10 patients (15 isolates each) were investigated by WGS, core-genome MLST and split k-mer (SKA)-SNP analysis. Plasmids and vanA-transposons from 39 VREfm representative of CTs identified were resolved by hybrid assembly of short-read (Illumina) and long-read (Oxford Nanopore Technologies) sequences. Plasmid relatedness was assessed based on Mash distances. Thirty vancomycin-susceptible E. faecium (VSEfm) from four VREfm-positive patients were also investigated.

Results

All isolates were clade A1 and most were ST80 (VREfm, 147/150; VSEfm, 25/30). Seventy-percent of patients (7/10) harboured either two (n = 4), three (n = 2) or four (n = 1) VREfm CTs. Individual patient isolate pairs from different CTs differed significantly (median SKA-SNPs 2933), but differences were minimal between isolate pairs of the same CT (median SKA-SNPs 0). In total, 193 plasmids were identified in 39 VREfm investigated. Near-identical plasmids (≥99.5% average nucleotide identity) were identified in divergent CTs from multiple patients. Most VREfm (28/39, 72%) harboured vanA on closely related transferable, linear plasmids. Divergent CTs within individual patients harboured either indistinguishable vanA-transposons or vanA-transposons with distinct organizational iterations. Four VSEfm from different CTs investigated harboured similar plasmids to VREfm.

Conclusion

VREfm within-host diversity is highly prevalent in Irish hospital patients, which complicates surveillance. Linear plasmids play an important role in the emergence of Irish VREfm.

A new method for detecting mixed Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and reconstructing constituent strains provides insights into transmission

BACKGROUND

Mixed infection with multiple strains of the same pathogen in a single host can present clinical and analytical challenges. Whole genome sequence (WGS) data can identify signals of multiple strains in samples, though the precision of previous methods can be improved. Here, we present MixInfect2, a new tool to accurately detect mixed samples from Mycobacterium tuberculosis short-read WGS data. We then evaluate three approaches for reconstructing the underlying mixed constituent strain sequences. This allows these samples to be included in downstream analysis to gain insights into the epidemiology and transmission of mixed infections.

METHODS

We employed a Gaussian mixture model to cluster allele frequencies at mixed sites (hSNPs) in each sample to identify signals of multiple strains. Building upon our previous tool, MixInfect, we increased the accuracy of classifying in vitro mixed samples through multiple improvements to the bioinformatic pipeline. Major and minor proportion constituent strains were reconstructed using three approaches and assessed by comparing the estimated sequence to the known constituent strain sequence. Lastly, mixed infections in a real-world Mycobacterium tuberculosis population from Moldova were detected with MixInfect2 and clusters of recent transmission that included major and minor constituent strains were built.

RESULTS

All 36/36 in vitro mixed and 12/12 non-mixed samples were correctly classified with MixInfect2, and major strain proportions were estimated with high accuracy (within 3% of the true strain proportion), outperforming previous tools. Reconstructed major strain sequences closely matched the true constituent sequence by taking the allele at the highest frequency at hSNPs, while the best-performing approach to reconstruct the minor proportion strain sequence was identifying the closest non-mixed isolate in the same population, though no approach was effective when the minor strain proportion was at 5%. Finally, fewer mixed infections were identified in Moldova than previous estimates (6.6% vs 17.4%) and we found multiple instances where the constituent strains of mixed samples were present in transmission clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

MixInfect2 accurately detects samples with evidence of mixed infection from short-read WGS data and provides an excellent estimate of the mixture proportions. While there are limitations in reconstructing the constituent strain sequences of mixed samples, we present recommendations for the best approach to include these isolates in further analyses.

Estimating the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from the size distribution of clusters of identical pathogen sequences

Quantifying transmission intensity and heterogeneity is crucial to ascertain the threat posed by infectious diseases and inform the design of interventions. Methods that jointly estimate the reproduction number R and the dispersion parameter k have however mainly remained limited to the analysis of epidemiological clusters or contact tracing data, whose collection often proves difficult. Here, we show that clusters of identical sequences are imprinted by the pathogen offspring distribution, and we derive an analytical formula for the distribution of the size of these clusters. We develop and evaluate an inference framework to jointly estimate the reproduction number and the dispersion parameter from the size distribution of clusters of identical sequences. We then illustrate its application across a range of epidemiological situations. Finally, we develop a hypothesis testing framework relying on clusters of identical sequences to determine whether a given pathogen genetic subpopulation is associated with increased or reduced transmissibility. Our work provides tools to estimate the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from pathogen sequences without building a phylogenetic tree, thus making it easily scalable to large pathogen genome datasets.

Consideration of within-patient diversity highlights transmission pathways and antimicrobial resistance gene variability in vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium

BACKGROUND

WGS is increasingly being applied to healthcare-associated vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm) outbreaks. Within-patient diversity could complicate transmission resolution if single colonies are sequenced from identified cases.

OBJECTIVES

Determine the impact of within-patient diversity on transmission resolution of VREfm.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Fourteen colonies were collected from VREfm positive rectal screens, single colonies were collected from clinical samples and Illumina WGS was performed. Two isolates were selected for Oxford Nanopore sequencing and hybrid genome assembly to generate lineage-specific reference genomes. Mapping to closely related references was used to identify genetic variations and closely related genomes. A transmission network was inferred for the entire genome set using Phyloscanner.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

In total, 229 isolates from 11 patients were sequenced. Carriage of two or three sequence types was detected in 27% of patients. Presence of antimicrobial resistance genes and plasmids was variable within genomes from the same patient and sequence type. We identified two dominant sequence types (ST80 and ST1424), with two putative transmission clusters of two patients within ST80, and a single cluster of six patients within ST1424. We found transmission resolution was impaired using fewer than 14 colonies.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients can carry multiple sequence types of VREfm, and even within related lineages the presence of mobile genetic elements and antimicrobial resistance genes can vary. VREfm within-patient diversity could be considered in future to aid accurate resolution of transmission networks.

Within-Host Evolution of Bacterial Pathogens in Acute and Chronic Infection

Bacterial pathogens undergo remarkable adaptive change in response to the selective forces they encounter during host colonization and infection. Studies performed over the past few decades have demonstrated that many general evolutionary processes can be discerned during the course of host adaptation, including genetic diversification of lineages, clonal succession events, convergent evolution, and balanced fitness trade-offs. In some cases, elevated mutation rates resulting from mismatch repair or proofreading deficiencies accelerate evolution, and active mobile genetic elements or phages may facilitate genome plasticity. The host immune response provides another critical component of the fitness landscapes guiding adaptation, and selection operating on pathogens at this level may lead to immune evasion and the establishment of chronic infection. This review summarizes recent advances in this field, with a special focus on different forms of bacterial genome plasticity in the context of infection, and considers clinical consequences of adaptive changes for the host.

Inferring bacterial transmission dynamics using deep sequencing genomic surveillance data

Identifying and interrupting transmission chains is important for controlling infectious diseases. One way to identify transmission pairs - two hosts in which infection was transmitted from one to the other - is using the variation of the pathogen within each single host (within-host variation). However, the role of such variation in transmission is understudied due to a lack of experimental and clinical datasets that capture pathogen diversity in both donor and recipient hosts. In this work, we assess the utility of deep-sequenced genomic surveillance (where genomic regions are sequenced hundreds to thousands of times) using a mouse transmission model involving controlled spread of the pathogenic bacterium Citrobacter rodentium from infected to naïve female animals. We observe that within-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) are maintained over multiple transmission steps and present a model for inferring the likelihood that a given pair of sequenced samples are linked by transmission. In this work we show that, beyond the presence and absence of within-host variants, differences arising in the relative abundance of iSNVs (allelic frequency) can infer transmission pairs more precisely. Our approach further highlights the critical role bottlenecks play in reserving the within-host diversity during transmission.

Phylogenetic inference of pneumococcal transmission from cross-sectional data, a pilot study

Background: Inference on pneumococcal transmission has mostly relied on longitudinal studies which are costly and resource intensive. Therefore, we conducted a pilot study to test the ability to infer who infected whom from cross-sectional pneumococcal sequences using phylogenetic inference. Methods: Five suspected transmission pairs, for which there was epidemiological evidence of who infected whom, were selected from a household study. For each pair, Streptococcus pneumoniae full genomes were sequenced from nasopharyngeal swabs collected on the same day. The within-host genetic diversity of the pneumococcal population was used to infer the transmission direction and then cross-validated with the direction suggested by the epidemiological records. Results: The pneumococcal genomes clustered into the five households from which the samples were taken. The proportion of concordantly inferred transmission direction generally increased with increasing minimum genome fragment size and single nucleotide polymorphisms. We observed a larger proportion of unique polymorphic sites in the source bacterial population compared to that of the recipient in four of the five pairs, as expected in the case of a transmission bottleneck. The only pair that did not exhibit this effect was also the pair that had consistent discordant transmission direction compared to the epidemiological records suggesting potential misdirection as a result of false-negative sampling. Conclusions: This pilot provided support for further studies to test if the direction of pneumococcal transmission can be reliably inferred from cross-sectional samples if sequenced with sufficient depth and fragment length.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low-frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is partially maintained among repeated serial samples from the same host, it can transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

P-DOR, an easy-to-use pipeline to reconstruct bacterial outbreaks using genomics

SUMMARY

Bacterial Healthcare-Associated Infections (HAIs) are a major threat worldwide, which can be counteracted by establishing effective infection control measures, guided by constant surveillance and timely epidemiological investigations. Genomics is crucial in modern epidemiology but lacks standard methods and user-friendly software, accessible to users without a strong bioinformatics proficiency. To overcome these issues we developed P-DOR, a novel tool for rapid bacterial outbreak characterization. P-DOR accepts genome assemblies as input, it automatically selects a background of publicly available genomes using k-mer distances and adds it to the analysis dataset before inferring a Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP)-based phylogeny. Epidemiological clusters are identified considering the phylogenetic tree topology and SNP distances. By analyzing the SNP-distance distribution, the user can gauge the correct threshold. Patient metadata can be inputted as well, to provide a spatio-temporal representation of the outbreak. The entire pipeline is fast and scalable and can be also run on low-end computers.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

P-DOR is implemented in Python3 and R and can be installed using conda environments. It is available from GitHub https://github.com/SteMIDIfactory/P-DOR under the GPL-3.0 license.

Intra- and interhost genomic diversity of monkeypox virus

The impact and frequency of infectious disease outbreaks demonstrate the need for timely genomic surveillance to inform public health responses. In the largest known outbreak of mpox, genomic surveillance efforts have primarily focused on high-incidence nations in Europe and the Americas, with a paucity of data from South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. Here we analyzed 102 monkeypox virus (MPXV) genomes sampled from 56 individuals in Melbourne, Australia. All genomes fell within the 2022 MPXV outbreak lineage (B.1), with likely onward local transmission detected. We observed within-host diversity and instances of co-infection, and highlight further examples of structural variation and apolipoprotein B editing complex-driven micro-evolution in the current MPXV outbreak. Updating our understanding of MPXV emergence and diversification will inform public health measures and enable monitoring of the virus' evolutionary trajectory throughout the mpox outbreak.

Graph-Based Reconstruction and Analysis of Disease Transmission Networks Using Viral Genomic Data

Understanding the patterns of viral disease transmissions helps establish public health policies and aids in controlling and ending a disease outbreak. Classical methods for studying disease transmission dynamics that rely on epidemiological data, such as times of sample collection and duration of exposure intervals, struggle to provide desired insight due to limited informativeness of such data. A more precise characterization of disease transmissions may be acquired from sequencing data that reveal genetic distance between viral genomes in patient samples. Indeed, genetic distance between viral strains present in hosts contains valuable information about transmission history, thus motivating the design of methods that rely on genomic data to reconstruct a directed disease transmission network, detect transmission clusters, and identify significant network nodes (e.g., super-spreaders). In this article, we present a novel end-to-end framework for the analysis of viral transmissions utilizing viral genomic (sequencing) data. The proposed framework groups infected hosts into transmission clusters based on the reconstructed viral strains infecting them; the genetic distance between a pair of hosts is calculated using Earth Mover's Distance, and further used to infer transmission direction between the hosts. To quantify the significance of a host in the transmission network, the importance score is calculated by a graph convolutional autoencoder. The viral transmission network is represented by a directed minimum spanning tree utilizing the Edmond's algorithm modified to incorporate constraints on the importance scores of the hosts. The proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art techniques for the analysis of viral transmission dynamics in several experiments on semiexperimental as well as experimental data.

Comparative genomics of Campylobacter jejuni from clinical campylobacteriosis stool specimens

BACKGROUND

Campylobacter jejuni is a pervasive pathogen of major public health concern with a complex ecology requiring accurate and informative approaches to define pathogen diversity during outbreak investigations. Source attribution analysis may be confounded if the genetic diversity of a C. jejuni population is not adequately captured in a single specimen. The aim of this study was to determine the genomic diversity of C. jejuni within individual stool specimens from four campylobacteriosis patients. Direct plating and pre-culture filtration of one stool specimen per patient was used to culture multiple isolates per stool specimen. Whole genome sequencing and pangenome level analysis were used to investigate genomic diversity of C. jejuni within a patient.

RESULTS

A total 92 C. jejuni isolates were recovered from four patients presenting with gastroenteritis. The number of isolates ranged from 13 to 30 per patient stool. Three patients yielded a single C. jejuni multilocus sequence type: ST-21 (n = 26, patient 4), ST-61 (n = 30, patient 1) and ST-2066 (n = 23, patient 2). Patient 3 was infected with two different sequence types [ST-51 (n = 12) and ST-354 (n = 1)]. Isolates belonging to the same sequence type from the same patient specimen shared 12-43 core non-recombinant SNPs and 0-20 frameshifts with each other, and the pangenomes of each sequence type consisted of 1406-1491 core genes and 231-264 accessory genes. However, neither the mutation nor the accessory genes were connected to a specific functional gene category.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that the C. jejuni population recovered from an individual patient's stool are genetically diverse even within the same ST and may have shared common ancestors before specimens were obtained. The population is unlikely to have evolved from a single isolate at the time point of initial patient infection, leading us to conclude that patients were likely infected with a heterogeneous C. jejuni population. The diversity of the C. jejuni population found within individual stool specimens can inform future methodological approaches to attribution and outbreak investigations.

Connecting the dots: understanding how human mobility shapes TB epidemics

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Reducing TB infections and TB-related deaths rests ultimately on stopping forward transmission from infectious to susceptible individuals. Critical to this effort is understanding how human host mobility shapes the transmission and dispersal of new or existing strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Important questions remain unanswered. What kinds of mobility, over what temporal and spatial scales, facilitate TB transmission? How do human mobility patterns influence the dispersal of novel Mtb strains, including emergent drug-resistant strains? This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on mobility and TB epidemic dynamics, using examples from three topic areas, including inference of genetic and spatial clustering of infections, delineating source-sink dynamics, and mapping the dispersal of novel TB strains, to examine scientific questions and methodological issues within this topic. We also review new data sources for measuring human mobility, including mobile phone-associated movement data, and discuss important limitations on their use in TB epidemiology.

Characterizing viral within-host diversity in fast and non-equilibrium demo-genetic dynamics

High-throughput sequencing has opened the route for a deep assessment of within-host genetic diversity that can be used, e.g., to characterize microbial communities and to infer transmission links in infectious disease outbreaks. The performance of such characterizations and inferences cannot be analytically assessed in general and are often grounded on computer-intensive evaluations. Then, being able to simulate within-host genetic diversity across time under various demo-genetic assumptions is paramount to assess the performance of the approaches of interest. In this context, we built an original model that can be simulated to investigate the temporal evolution of genotypes and their frequencies under various demo-genetic assumptions. The model describes the growth and the mutation of genotypes at the nucleotide resolution conditional on an overall within-host viral kinetics, and can be tuned to generate fast non-equilibrium demo-genetic dynamics. We ran simulations of this model and computed classic diversity indices to characterize the temporal variation of within-host genetic diversity (from high-throughput amplicon sequences) of virus populations under three demographic kinetic models of viral infection. Our results highlight how demographic (viral load) and genetic (mutation, selection, or drift) factors drive variations in within-host diversity during the course of an infection. In particular, we observed a non-monotonic relationship between pathogen population size and genetic diversity, and a reduction of the impact of mutation on diversity when a non-specific host immune response is activated. The large variation in the diversity patterns generated in our simulations suggests that the underlying model provides a flexible basis to produce very diverse demo-genetic scenarios and test, for instance, methods for the inference of transmission links during outbreaks.

Combining biomarker and virus phylogenetic models improves HIV-1 epidemiological source identification

To identify and stop active HIV transmission chains new epidemiological techniques are needed. Here, we describe the development of a multi-biomarker augmentation to phylogenetic inference of the underlying transmission history in a local population. HIV biomarkers are measurable biological quantities that have some relationship to the amount of time someone has been infected with HIV. To train our model, we used five biomarkers based on real data from serological assays, HIV sequence data, and target cell counts in longitudinally followed, untreated patients with known infection times. The biomarkers were modeled with a mixed effects framework to allow for patient specific variation and general trends, and fit to patient data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Subsequently, the density of the unobserved infection time conditional on observed biomarkers were obtained by integrating out the random effects from the model fit. This probabilistic information about infection times was incorporated into the likelihood function for the transmission history and phylogenetic tree reconstruction, informed by the HIV sequence data. To critically test our methodology, we developed a coalescent-based simulation framework that generates phylogenies and biomarkers given a specific or general transmission history. Testing on many epidemiological scenarios showed that biomarker augmented phylogenetics can reach 90% accuracy under idealized situations. Under realistic within-host HIV-1 evolution, involving substantial within-host diversification and frequent transmission of multiple lineages, the average accuracy was at about 50% in transmission clusters involving 5-50 hosts. Realistic biomarker data added on average 16 percentage points over using the phylogeny alone. Using more biomarkers improved the performance. Shorter temporal spacing between transmission events and increased transmission heterogeneity reduced reconstruction accuracy, but larger clusters were not harder to get right. More sequence data per infected host also improved accuracy. We show that the method is robust to incomplete sampling and that adding biomarkers improves reconstructions of real HIV-1 transmission histories. The technology presented here could allow for better prevention programs by providing data for locally informed and tailored strategies.

Within-Household Transmission and Bacterial Diversity of Staphylococcus pseudintermedius

Staphylococcus pseudintermedius can be transmitted between dogs and their owners and can cause opportunistic infections in humans. Whole genome sequencing was applied to identify the relatedness between isolates from human infections and isolates from dogs in the same households. Genome SNP diversity and distribution of plasmids and antimicrobial resistance genes identified related and unrelated isolates in both households. Our study shows that within-host bacterial diversity is present in S. pseudintermedius, demonstrating that multiple isolates from each host should preferably be sequenced to study transmission dynamics.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches to reconstruct outbreaks exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is stable among repeated serial samples from the same host, is transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

The microbial ecology of Escherichia coli in the vertebrate gut

Escherichia coli has a rich history as biology's 'rock star', driving advances across many fields. In the wild, E. coli resides innocuously in the gut of humans and animals but is also a versatile pathogen commonly associated with intestinal and extraintestinal infections and antimicrobial resistance-including large foodborne outbreaks such as the one that swept across Europe in 2011, killing 54 individuals and causing approximately 4000 infections and 900 cases of haemolytic uraemic syndrome. Given that most E. coli are harmless gut colonizers, an important ecological question plaguing microbiologists is what makes E. coli an occasionally devastating pathogen? To address this question requires an enhanced understanding of the ecology of the organism as a commensal. Here, we review how our knowledge of the ecology and within-host diversity of this organism in the vertebrate gut has progressed in the 137 years since E. coli was first described. We also review current approaches to the study of within-host bacterial diversity. In closing, we discuss some of the outstanding questions yet to be addressed and prospects for future research.

Methods Combining Genomic and Epidemiological Data in the Reconstruction of Transmission Trees: A Systematic Review

In order to better understand transmission dynamics and appropriately target control and preventive measures, studies have aimed to identify who-infected-whom in actual outbreaks. Numerous reconstruction methods exist, each with their own assumptions, types of data, and inference strategy. Thus, selecting a method can be difficult. Following PRISMA guidelines, we systematically reviewed the literature for methods combing epidemiological and genomic data in transmission tree reconstruction. We identified 22 methods from the 41 selected articles. We defined three families according to how genomic data was handled: a non-phylogenetic family, a sequential phylogenetic family, and a simultaneous phylogenetic family. We discussed methods according to the data needed as well as the underlying sequence mutation, within-host evolution, transmission, and case observation. In the non-phylogenetic family consisting of eight methods, pairwise genetic distances were estimated. In the phylogenetic families, transmission trees were inferred from phylogenetic trees either simultaneously (nine methods) or sequentially (five methods). While a majority of methods (17/22) modeled the transmission process, few (8/22) took into account imperfect case detection. Within-host evolution was generally (7/8) modeled as a coalescent process. These practical and theoretical considerations were highlighted in order to help select the appropriate method for an outbreak.

Widespread sharing of pneumococcal strains in a rural African setting: proximate villages are more likely to share similar strains that are carried at multiple timepoints

The transmission dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae in sub-Saharan Africa are poorly understood due to a lack of adequate epidemiological and genomic data. Here we leverage a longitudinal cohort from 21 neighbouring villages in rural Africa to study how closely related strains of S. pneumoniae are shared among infants. We analysed 1074 pneumococcal genomes isolated from 102 infants from 21 villages. Strains were designated for unique serotype and sequence-type combinations, and we arbitrarily defined strain sharing where the pairwise genetic distance between strains could be accounted for by the mean within host intra-strain diversity. We used non-parametric statistical tests to assess the role of spatial distance and prolonged carriage on strain sharing using a logistic regression model. We recorded 458 carriage episodes including 318 (69.4 %) where the carried strain was shared with at least one other infant. The odds of strain sharing varied significantly across villages (χ²=47.5, df=21, P-value <0.001). Infants in close proximity to each other were more likely to be involved in strain sharing, but we also show a considerable amount of strain sharing across longer distances. Close geographic proximity (<5 km) between shared strains was associated with a significantly lower pairwise SNP distance compared to strains shared over longer distances (P-value <0.005). Sustained carriage of a shared strain among the infants was significantly more likely to occur if they resided in villages within a 5 km radius of each other (P-value <0.005, OR 3.7). Conversely, where both infants were transiently colonized by the shared strain, they were more likely to reside in villages separated by over 15 km (P-value <0.05, OR 1.5). PCV7 serotypes were rare (13.5 %) and were significantly less likely to be shared (P-value <0.001, OR −1.07). Strain sharing was more likely to occur over short geographical distances, especially where accompanied by sustained colonization. Our results show that strain sharing is a useful proxy for studying transmission dynamics in an under-sampled population with limited genomic data. This article contains data hosted by Microreact.

Population genomics of Bacillus anthracis from an anthrax hyperendemic area reveals transmission processes across spatial scales and unexpected within-host diversity

Genomic sequencing has revolutionized our understanding of bacterial disease epidemiology, but remains underutilized for zoonotic pathogens in remote endemic settings. Anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, remains a threat to human and animal health and rural livelihoods in low- and middle-income countries. While the global genomic diversity of B. anthracis has been well-characterized, there is limited information on how its populations are genetically structured at the scale at which transmission occurs, critical for understanding the pathogen's evolution and transmission dynamics. Using a uniquely rich dataset, we quantified genome-wide SNPs among 73 B. anthracis isolates derived from 33 livestock carcasses sampled over 1 year throughout the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania, a region hyperendemic for anthrax. Genome-wide SNPs distinguished 22 unique B. anthracis genotypes (i.e. SNP profiles) within the study area. However, phylogeographical structure was lacking, as identical SNP profiles were found throughout the study area, likely the result of the long and variable periods of spore dormancy and long-distance livestock movements. Significantly, divergent genotypes were obtained from spatio-temporally linked cases and even individual carcasses. The high number of SNPs distinguishing isolates from the same host is unlikely to have arisen during infection, as supported by our simulation models. This points to an unexpectedly wide transmission bottleneck for B. anthracis, with an inoculum comprising multiple variants being the norm. Our work highlights that inferring transmission patterns of B. anthracis from genomic data will require analytical approaches that account for extended and variable environmental persistence, as well as co-infection.

OUP accepted manuscript

A detailed understanding of how and when severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission occurs is crucial for designing effective prevention measures. Other than contact tracing, genome sequencing provides information to help infer who infected whom. However, the effectiveness of the genomic approach in this context depends on both (high enough) mutation and (low enough) transmission rates. Today, the level of resolution that we can obtain when describing SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks using just genomic information alone remains unclear. In order to answer this question, we sequenced forty-nine SARS-CoV-2 patient samples from ten local clusters in NW Spain for which partial epidemiological information was available and inferred transmission history using genomic variants. Importantly, we obtained high-quality genomic data, sequencing each sample twice and using unique barcodes to exclude cross-sample contamination. Phylogenetic and cluster analyses showed that consensus genomes were generally sufficient to discriminate among independent transmission clusters. However, levels of intrahost variation were low, which prevented in most cases the unambiguous identification of direct transmission events. After filtering out recurrent variants across clusters, the genomic data were generally compatible with the epidemiological information but did not support specific transmission events over possible alternatives. We estimated the effective transmission bottleneck size to be one to two viral particles for sample pairs whose donor–recipient relationship was likely. Our analyses suggest that intrahost genomic variation in SARS-CoV-2 might be generally limited and that homoplasy and recurrent errors complicate identifying shared intrahost variants. Reliable reconstruction of direct SARS-CoV-2 transmission based solely on genomic data seems hindered by a slow mutation rate, potential convergent events, and technical artifacts. Detailed contact tracing seems essential in most cases to study SARS-CoV-2 transmission at high resolution.

Evaluation of whole-genome sequencing-based subtyping methods for the surveillance of Shigella spp. and the confounding effect of mobile genetic elements in long-term outbreaks

Many public health laboratories across the world have implemented whole-genome sequencing (WGS) for the surveillance and outbreak detection of foodborne pathogens. PulseNet-affiliated laboratories have determined that most single-strain foodborne outbreaks are contained within 0–10 multi-locus sequence typing (MLST)-based allele differences and/or core genome single-nucleotide variants (SNVs). In addition to being a food- and travel-associated outbreak pathogen, most Shigella spp. cases occur through continuous person-to-person transmission, predominantly involving men who have sex with men (MSM), leading to long-term and recurrent outbreaks. Continuous transmission patterns coupled to genetic evolution under antibiotic treatment pressure require an assessment of existing WGS-based subtyping methods and interpretation criteria for cluster inclusion/exclusion. An evaluation of 4 WGS-based subtyping methods [SNVPhyl, coreMLST, core genome MLST (cgMLST) and whole-genome MLST (wgMLST)] was performed on 9 foodborne-, travel- and MSM-related retrospective outbreaks from a collection of 91 Shigella flexneri and 232  Shigella sonnei isolates to determine the methods’ epidemiological concordance, discriminatory power, robustness and ability to generate stable interpretation criteria. The discriminatory powers were ranked as follows: coreMLST<SNVPhyl<cgMLST<wgMLST (range: 0.970–1.000). The genetic differences observed for non-MSM-related Shigella spp. outbreaks respect the standard 0–10 allele/SNV guideline; however, mobile genetic element (MGE)-encoded loci caused inflated genetic variation and discrepant phylogenies for prolonged MSM-related S. sonnei outbreaks via wgMLST. The S. sonnei correlation coefficients of wgMLST were also the lowest at 0.680, 0.703 and 0.712 for SNVPhyl, coreMLST and cgMLST, respectively. Plasmid maintenance, mobilization and conjugation-associated genes were found to be the main source of genetic distance inflation in addition to prophage-related genes. Duplicated alleles arising from the repeated nature of IS elements were also responsible for many false cg/wgMLST differences. The coreMLST approach was shown to be the most robust, followed by SNVPhyl and wgMLST for inter-laboratory comparability. Our results highlight the need for validating species-specific subtyping methods based on microbial genome plasticity and outbreak dynamics in addition to the importance of filtering confounding MGEs for cluster detection.

Bacterial genomic epidemiology with mixed samples

Genomic epidemiology is a tool for tracing transmission of pathogens based on whole-genome sequencing. We introduce the mGEMS pipeline for genomic epidemiology with plate sweeps representing mixed samples of a target pathogen, opening the possibility to sequence all colonies on selective plates with a single DNA extraction and sequencing step. The pipeline includes the novel mGEMS read binner for probabilistic assignments of sequencing reads, and the scalable pseudoaligner Themisto. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using closely related samples in a nosocomial setting, obtaining results that are comparable to those based on single-colony picks. Our results lend firm support to more widespread consideration of genomic epidemiology with mixed infection samples.

High-resolution sweep metagenomics using fast probabilistic inference

Determining the composition of bacterial communities beyond the level of a genus or species is challenging because of the considerable overlap between genomes representing close relatives. Here, we present the mSWEEP pipeline for identifying and estimating the relative sequence abundances of bacterial lineages from plate sweeps of enrichment cultures. mSWEEP leverages biologically grouped sequence assembly databases, applying probabilistic modelling, and provides controls for false positive results. Using sequencing data from major pathogens, we demonstrate significant improvements in lineage quantification and detection accuracy. Our pipeline facilitates investigating cultures comprising mixtures of bacteria, and opens up a new field of plate sweep metagenomics.

Heuristic and Hierarchical-Based Population Mining of Salmonella enterica Lineage I Pan-Genomes as a Platform to Enhance Food Safety

The recent incorporation of bacterial whole-genome sequencing (WGS) into Public Health laboratories has enhanced foodborne outbreak detection and source attribution. As a result, large volumes of publicly available datasets can be used to study the biology of foodborne pathogen populations at an unprecedented scale. To demonstrate the application of a heuristic and agnostic hierarchical population structure guided pan-genome enrichment analysis (PANGEA), we used populations of S. enterica lineage I to achieve two main objectives: (i) show how hierarchical population inquiry at different scales of resolution can enhance ecological and epidemiological inquiries; and (ii) identify population-specific inferable traits that could provide selective advantages in food production environments. Publicly available WGS data were obtained from NCBI database for three serovars of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica lineage I (S. Typhimurium, S. Newport, and S. Infantis). Using the hierarchical genotypic classifications (Serovar, BAPS1, ST, cgMLST), datasets from each of the three serovars showed varying degrees of clonal structuring. When the accessory genome (PANGEA) was mapped onto these hierarchical structures, accessory loci could be linked with specific genotypes. A large heavy-metal resistance mobile element was found in the Monophasic ST34 lineage of S. Typhimurium, and laboratory testing showed that Monophasic isolates have on average a higher degree of copper resistance than the Biphasic ones. In S. Newport, an extra sugE gene copy was found among most isolates of the ST45 lineage, and laboratory testing of multiple isolates confirmed that isolates of S. Newport ST45 were on average less sensitive to the disinfectant cetylpyridimium chloride than non-ST45 isolates. Lastly, data-mining of the accessory genomic content of S. Infantis revealed two cryptic Ecotypes with distinct accessory genomic content and distinct ecological patterns. Poultry appears to be the major reservoir for Ecotype 1, and temporal analysis further suggested a recent ecological succession, with Ecotype 2 apparently being displaced by Ecotype 1. Altogether, the use of a heuristic hierarchical-based population structure analysis that includes bacterial pan-genomes (core and accessory genomes) can (1) improve genomic resolution for mapping populations and accessing epidemiological patterns; and (2) define lineage-specific informative loci that may be associated with survival in the food chain.

Patterns of within-host genetic diversity in SARS-CoV-2

Monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and reconstructing transmission chains has become a major public health focus for many governments around the world. The modest mutation rate and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 prevents the reconstruction of transmission chains from consensus genome sequences, but within-host genetic diversity could theoretically help identify close contacts. Here we describe the patterns of within-host diversity in 1181 SARS-CoV-2 samples sequenced to high depth in duplicate. 95.1% of samples show within-host mutations at detectable allele frequencies. Analyses of the mutational spectra revealed strong strand asymmetries suggestive of damage or RNA editing of the plus strand, rather than replication errors, dominating the accumulation of mutations during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Within- and between-host diversity show strong purifying selection, particularly against nonsense mutations. Recurrent within-host mutations, many of which coincide with known phylogenetic homoplasies, display a spectrum and patterns of purifying selection more suggestive of mutational hotspots than recombination or convergent evolution. While allele frequencies suggest that most samples result from infection by a single lineage, we identify multiple putative examples of co-infection. Integrating these results into an epidemiological inference framework, we find that while sharing of within-host variants between samples could help the reconstruction of transmission chains, mutational hotspots and rare cases of superinfection can confound these analyses.

Possible Transmission Mechanisms of Mixed Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in High HIV Prevalence Country, Botswana

Tuberculosis caused by concurrent infection with multiple Mycobacteriumtuberculosis strains (i.e., mixed infection) challenges clinical and epidemiologic paradigms. We explored possible transmission mechanisms of mixed infection in a population-based, molecular epidemiology study in Botswana during 2012–2016. We defined mixed infection as multiple repeats of alleles at >2 loci within a discrete mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit–variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) result. We compared mixed infection MIRU-VNTR results with all study MIRU-VNTR results by considering all permutations at each multiple allele locus; matched MIRU-VNTR results were considered evidence of recently acquired strains and nonmatched to any other results were considered evidence of remotely acquired strains. Among 2,051 patients, 34 (1.7%) had mixed infection, of which 23 (68%) had recently and remotely acquired strains. This finding might support the mixed infection mechanism of recent transmission and simultaneous remote reactivation. Further exploration is needed to determine proportions of transmission mechanisms in settings where mixed infections are prevalent.

o2geosocial: Reconstructing who-infected-whom from routinely collected surveillance data

Reconstructing the history of individual transmission events between cases is key to understanding what factors facilitate the spread of an infectious disease. Since conducting extended contact-tracing investigations can be logistically challenging and costly, statistical inference methods have been developed to reconstruct transmission trees from onset dates and genetic sequences. However, these methods are not as effective if the mutation rate of the virus is very slow, or if sequencing data is sparse. We developed the package o2geosocial to combine variables from routinely collected surveillance data with a simple transmission process model. The model reconstructs transmission trees when full genetic sequences are unavailable, or uninformative. Our model incorporates the reported age-group, onset date, location and genotype of infected cases to infer probabilistic transmission trees. The package also includes functions to summarise and visualise the inferred cluster size distribution. The results generated by o2geosocial can highlight regions where importations repeatedly caused large outbreaks, which may indicate a higher regional susceptibility to infections. It can also be used to generate the individual number of secondary transmissions, and show the features associated with individuals involved in high transmission events. The package is available for download from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) and GitHub.

Inferring environmental transmission using phylodynamics: a case-study using simulated evolution of an enteric pathogen

Indirect (environmental) and direct (host-host) transmission pathways cannot easily be distinguished when they co-occur in epidemics, particularly when they occur on similar time scales. Phylodynamic reconstruction is a potential approach to this problem that combines epidemiological information (temporal, spatial information) with pathogen whole-genome sequencing data to infer transmission trees of epidemics. However, factors such as differences in mutation and transmission rates between host and non-host environments may obscure phylogenetic inference from these methods. In this study, we used a network-based transmission model that explicitly models pathogen evolution to simulate epidemics with both direct and indirect transmission. Epidemics were simulated according to factorial combinations of direct/indirect transmission proportions, host mutation rates and conditions of environmental pathogen growth. Transmission trees were then reconstructed using the phylodynamic approach SCOTTI (structured coalescent transmission tree inference) and evaluated. We found that although insufficient diversity sets a lower bound on when accurate phylodynamic inferences can be made, transmission routes and assumed pathogen lifestyle affected pathogen population structure and subsequently influenced both reconstruction success and the likelihood of direct versus indirect pathways being reconstructed. We conclude that prior knowledge of the likely ecology and population structure of pathogens in host and non-host environments is critical to fully using phylodynamic techniques.

Who infects whom?-Reconstructing infection chains of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis in an endemically infected dairy herd by use of genomic data

Recent evidence of circulation of multiple strains within herds and mixed infections of cows marks the beginning of a rethink of our knowledge on Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) epidemiology. Strain typing opens new ways to investigate MAP transmission. This work presents a method for reconstructing infection chains in a setting of endemic Johne’s disease on a well-managed dairy farm. By linking genomic data with demographic field data, strain-specific differences in spreading patterns could be quantified for a densely sampled dairy herd. Mixed infections of dairy cows with MAP are common, and some strains spread more successfully. Infected cows remain susceptible for co-infections with other MAP genotypes. The model suggested that cows acquired infection from 1–4 other cows and spread infection to 0–17 individuals. Reconstructed infection chains supported the hypothesis that high shedding animals that started to shed at an early age and showed a progressive infection pattern represented a greater risk for spreading MAP. Transmission of more than one genotype between animals was recorded. In this farm with a good MAP control management program, adult-to-adult contact was proposed as the most important transmission route to explain the reconstructed networks. For each isolate, at least one more likely ancestor could be inferred. Our study results help to capture underlying transmission processes and to understand the challenges of tracing MAP spread within a herd. Only the combination of precise longitudinal field data and bacterial strain type information made it possible to trace infection in such detail.

Colonization with multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae among infants: an observational study in southern Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND

The timing of and risk factors for intestinal colonization with multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (MDRE) are still poorly understood in areas with high MDRE carriage. We determined the prevalence, timing, and risk factors associated with MDRE intestinal colonization among infants in southern Sri Lanka.

METHODS

Women and their newborn children were enrolled within 48 h after delivery in southern Sri Lanka. Rectal swabs were collected from women and infants at enrollment and 4-6 weeks later. Enterobacteriaceae were isolated and identified as MDRE (positive for extended-spectrum β-lactamases or carbapenem resistant) using standard microbiologic procedures. We used exact methods (Fisher's exact and Kruskal-Wallis tests) and multivariable logistic regression to identify sociodemographic and clinical features associated with MDRE intestinal colonization. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on selected MDRE isolates to identify phylogroups and antibiotic resistance-encoding genes were identified with NCBI's AMRfinder tool.

RESULTS

Overall, 199 post-partum women and 199 infants were enrolled; 148/199 (74.4%) women and 151/199 (75.9%) infants were reassessed later in the community. Twenty-four/199 (12.1%) women and 3/199 (1.5%) infants displayed intestinal colonization with MDRE at enrollment, while 26/148 (17.6%) women and 24/151 (15.9%) infants displayed intestinal colonization with MDRE at the reassessment. While there were no risk factors associated with infant colonization at enrollment, multivariable analysis indicated that risk factors for infant colonization at reassessment included mother colonized at enrollment (aOR = 3.62) or reassessment (aOR = 4.44), delivery by Cesarean section (aOR = 2.91), and low birth weight (aOR = 5.39). Of the 20 MDRE isolates from infants that were sequenced, multilocus sequence typing revealed that 6/20 (30%) were clustered on the same branch as MDRE isolates found in the respective mothers. All sequenced isolates for mothers (47) and infants (20) had at least one ESBL-producing gene. Genes encoding fosfomycin resistance were found in 33/47 (70%) of mothers' isolates and 16/20 (80%) of infants' isolates and genes encoding resistance to colistin were found in one (2%) mother's isolate.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that a substantial proportion of infants undergo MDRE intestinal colonization within 6 weeks of birth, potentially due to postnatal rather than intranatal transmission.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutation accumulation within and across infected hosts

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity within infected hosts can provide insight into the generation and spread of new viral variants and may enable high resolution inference of transmission chains. However, little is known about temporal aspects of SARS-CoV-2 intrahost diversity and the extent to which shared diversity reflects convergent evolution as opposed to transmission linkage. Here we use high depth of coverage sequencing to identify within-host genetic variants in 325 specimens from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and infected employees at a single medical center. We validated our variant calling by sequencing defined RNA mixtures and identified viral load as a critical factor in variant identification. By leveraging clinical metadata, we found that intrahost diversity is low and does not vary by time from symptom onset. This suggests that variants will only rarely rise to appreciable frequency prior to transmission. Although there was generally little shared variation across the sequenced cohort, we identified intrahost variants shared across individuals who were unlikely to be related by transmission. These variants did not precede a rise in frequency in global consensus genomes, suggesting that intrahost variants may have limited utility for predicting future lineages. These results provide important context for sequence-based inference in SARS-CoV-2 evolution and epidemiology.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutation accumulation within and across infected hosts

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity within infected hosts can provide insight into the generation and spread of new viral variants and may enable high resolution inference of transmission chains. However, little is known about temporal aspects of SARS-CoV-2 intrahost diversity and the extent to which shared diversity reflects convergent evolution as opposed to transmission linkage. Here we use high depth of coverage sequencing to identify within-host genetic variants in 325 specimens from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and infected employees at a single medical center. We validated our variant calling by sequencing defined RNA mixtures and identified a viral load threshold that minimizes false positives. By leveraging clinical metadata, we found that intrahost diversity is low and does not vary by time from symptom onset. This suggests that variants will only rarely rise to appreciable frequency prior to transmission. Although there was generally little shared variation across the sequenced cohort, we identified intrahost variants shared across individuals who were unlikely to be related by transmission. These variants did not precede a rise in frequency in global consensus genomes, suggesting that intrahost variants may have limited utility for predicting future lineages. These results provide important context for sequence-based inference in SARS-CoV-2 evolution and epidemiology.

Whole-genome sequencing of clinical Clostridioides difficile isolates reveals molecular epidemiology and discrepancies with conventional laboratory diagnostic testing

BACKGROUND

The high clinical burden of Clostridioides difficile infections merits rapid and sensitive identification of affected individuals. However, effective diagnosis remains challenging. Current best practice guidelines recommend molecular and/or direct toxin detection-based screening for symptomatic individuals, but previous work has called into question the concordance and performance of extant clinical assays.

AIM

To better correlate the genomic and phenotypic properties of clinical C. difficile isolates with laboratory testing outcomes in both C. difficile-infected patients and asymptomatic carriers.

METHODS

Whole-genome sequencing of clinical C. difficile isolates collected from an inpatient population at a single healthcare institution was performed, enabling examination of their molecular epidemiology and toxigenic gene content. Genomic findings were compared with clinical testing outcomes, identifying multiple diagnostic discrepancies.

FINDINGS

Toxigenic culture, considered a 'reference standard', provided perfect sensitivity and specificity in predicting toxigenic gene content, whereas reduced performance was observed for Simplexa C. difficile Direct Assay (100% specificity, 88% sensitivity), Gene Xpert CD/Epi Assay (86% specificity, 83% sensitivity), and Quick Check Complete Tox A/B (100% specificity, 30% sensitivity). Genomic analysis additionally revealed variability in toxin gene sequences among C. difficile strains, phylogenomic equivalency between isolates from affected patients and carriers, and patient carriage with uncommon environmentally derived C. difficile lineages, as well as presenting opportunities for tracing pathogen transmission events.

CONCLUSION

These results highlight the variable performance of clinical stool-based testing approaches as well as the potential diagnostic utility of whole-genome sequencing as an alternative to conventional testing algorithms.

Bayesian reconstruction of transmission trees from genetic sequences and uncertain infection times

Genetic sequence data of pathogens are increasingly used to investigate transmission dynamics in both endemic diseases and disease outbreaks. Such research can aid in the development of appropriate interventions and in the design of studies to evaluate them. Several computational methods have been proposed to infer transmission chains from sequence data; however, existing methods do not generally reliably reconstruct transmission trees because genetic sequence data or inferred phylogenetic trees from such data contain insufficient information for accurate estimation of transmission chains. Here, we show by simulation studies that incorporating infection times, even when they are uncertain, can greatly improve the accuracy of reconstruction of transmission trees. To achieve this improvement, we propose a Bayesian inference methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo that directly draws samples from the space of transmission trees under the assumption of complete sampling of the outbreak. The likelihood of each transmission tree is computed by a phylogenetic model by treating its internal nodes as transmission events. By a simulation study, we demonstrate that accuracy of the reconstructed transmission trees depends mainly on the amount of information available on times of infection; we show superiority of the proposed method to two alternative approaches when infection times are known up to specified degrees of certainty. In addition, we illustrate the use of a multiple imputation framework to study features of epidemic dynamics, such as the relationship between characteristics of nodes and average number of outbound edges or inbound edges, signifying possible transmission events from and to nodes. We apply the proposed method to a transmission cluster in San Diego and to a dataset from the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola virus outbreak and investigate the impact of biological, behavioral, and demographic factors.

PIQMEE: Bayesian Phylodynamic Method for Analysis of Large Data Sets with Duplicate Sequences

Next-generation sequencing of pathogen quasispecies within a host yields data sets of tens to hundreds of unique sequences. However, the full data set often contains thousands of sequences, because many of those unique sequences have multiple identical copies. Data sets of this size represent a computational challenge for currently available Bayesian phylogenetic and phylodynamic methods. Through simulations, we explore how large data sets with duplicate sequences affect the speed and accuracy of phylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis within BEAST 2. We show that using unique sequences only leads to biases, and using a random subset of sequences yields imprecise parameter estimates. To overcome these shortcomings, we introduce PIQMEE, a BEAST 2 add-on that produces reliable parameter estimates from full data sets with increased computational efficiency as compared with the currently available methods within BEAST 2. The principle behind PIQMEE is to resolve the tree structure of the unique sequences only, while simultaneously estimating the branching times of the duplicate sequences. Distinguishing between unique and duplicate sequences allows our method to perform well even for very large data sets. Although the classic method converges poorly for data sets of 6,000 sequences when allowed to run for 7 days, our method converges in slightly more than 1 day. In fact, PIQMEE can handle data sets of around 21,000 sequences with 20 unique sequences in 14 days. Finally, we apply the method to a real, within-host HIV sequencing data set with several thousand sequences per patient.

Hospital MRSA outbreaks: Multiplex PCR-reverse line blot binary typing as a screening method for WGS, and the role of the environment in transmission

BACKGROUND

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) can provide useful information on methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) transmission in hospitals. However, it is expensive and laborious, especially for environmental screening programs which generate large numbers of isolates. Multiplex PCR-reverse line blot binary typing (mPCR-RLB BT) is a rapid, high throughput, inexpensive typing method which could be useful to screen isolates for WGS. This study assessed the strategy of screening isolates with mPCR-RLB BT to reduce the need for WGS; and to assess the role of the environment in transmission.

METHODS

MRSA transmission in a Burns Unit and its related Intensive Care Unit was studied. mPCR-RLB BT was performed on 238 isolates; this, combined with epidemiological data, was used to choose 97 isolates for WGS.

RESULTS

Relationships between isolates by WGS demonstrated several outbreaks. There was a significant contribution of environmental isolates to transmission, and several problem areas were identified. There was a substantial cost saving from screening isolates with mPCR-RLB BT.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of an inexpensive, rapid screening method for MRSA typing is useful to reduce expenditure and time spent on hospital infection control programs, and reductions are likely to be even more considerable in a non-outbreak setting. Environmental screening and WGS are useful to determine exact sources of transmission to focus mitigation strategies.

Comparative genomics in infectious disease

With more than one million bacterial genome sequences uploaded to public databases in the last 25 years, genomics has become a powerful tool for studying bacterial biology. Here, we review recent approaches that leverage large numbers of whole genome sequences to decipher the spread and pathogenesis of bacterial infectious diseases.

Evaluation of A Phylogenetic Pipeline to Examine Transmission Networks in A Canadian HIV Cohort

Keywords: HIV; Canada; molecular phylogenetics; viral evolution; person-to-person transmission inference; transmission network; summary statistics.

Current Affairs of Microbial Genome-Wide Association Studies: Approaches, Bottlenecks and Analytical Pitfalls

Microbial genome-wide association studies (mGWAS) are a new and exciting research field that is adapting human GWAS methods to understand how variations in microbial genomes affect host or pathogen phenotypes, such as drug resistance, virulence, host specificity and prognosis. Several computational tools and methods have been developed or adapted from human GWAS to facilitate the discovery of novel mutations and structural variations that are associated with the phenotypes of interest. However, no comprehensive, end-to-end, user-friendly tool is currently available. The development of a broadly applicable pipeline presents a real opportunity among computational biologists. Here, (i) we review the prominent and promising tools, (ii) discuss analytical pitfalls and bottlenecks in mGWAS, (iii) provide insights into the selection of appropriate tools, (iv) highlight the gaps that still need to be filled and how users and developers can work together to overcome these bottlenecks. Use of mGWAS research can inform drug repositioning decisions as well as accelerate the discovery and development of more effective vaccines and antimicrobials for pressing infectious diseases of global health significance, such as HIV, TB, influenza, and malaria.

High-resolution sweep metagenomics using fast probabilistic inference

Determining the composition of bacterial communities beyond the level of a genus or species is challenging because of the considerable overlap between genomes representing close relatives. Here, we present the mSWEEP pipeline for identifying and estimating the relative sequence abundances of bacterial lineages from plate sweeps of enrichment cultures. mSWEEP leverages biologically grouped sequence assembly databases, applying probabilistic modelling, and provides controls for false positive results. Using sequencing data from major pathogens, we demonstrate significant improvements in lineage quantification and detection accuracy. Our pipeline facilitates investigating cultures comprising mixtures of bacteria, and opens up a new field of plate sweep metagenomics.

Transmission dynamics and control of multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in neonates in a developing country

Multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae is an increasing cause of infant mortality in developing countries. We aimed to develop a quantitative understanding of the drivers of this epidemic by estimating the effects of antibiotics on nosocomial transmission risk, comparing competing hypotheses about mechanisms of spread, and quantifying the impact of potential interventions. Using a sequence of dynamic models, we analysed data from a one-year prospective carriage study in a Cambodian neonatal intensive care unit with hyperendemic third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K. pneumoniae. All widely-used antibiotics except imipenem were associated with an increased daily acquisition risk, with an odds ratio for the most common combination (ampicillin + gentamicin) of 1.96 (95% CrI 1.18, 3.36). Models incorporating genomic data found that colonisation pressure was associated with a higher transmission risk, indicated sequence type heterogeneity in transmissibility, and showed that within-ward transmission was insufficient to maintain endemicity. Simulations indicated that increasing the nurse-patient ratio could be an effective intervention.

Frequent Undetected Ward-Based Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Transmission Linked to Patient Sharing Between Hospitals

Background

Recent evidence suggests that hospital transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is uncommon in UK centers that have implemented sustained infection control programs. We investigated whether a healthcare-network analysis could shed light on transmission paths currently sustaining MRSA levels in UK hospitals.

Methods

A cross-sectional observational study was performed in 2 National Health Service hospital groups and a general district hospital in Southeast London. All MRSA patients identified at inpatient, outpatient, and community settings between 1 November 2011 and 29 February 2012 were included. We identified genetically defined MRSA transmission clusters in individual hospitals and across the healthcare network, and examined genetic differentiation of sequence type (ST) 22 MRSA isolates within and between hospitals and inpatient or outpatient and community settings, as informed by average and median pairwise single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP-based proportions of nearly identical isolates.

Results

Two hundred forty-eight of 610 (40.7%) MRSA patients were linked in 90 transmission clusters, of which 27 spanned multiple hospitals. Analysis of a large 32 patient ST22-MRSA cluster showed that 26 of 32 patients (81.3%) had multiple contacts with one another during ward stays at any hospital. No residential, outpatient, or significant community healthcare contacts were identified. Genetic differentiation between ST22 MRSA inpatient isolates from different hospitals was less than between inpatient isolates from the same hospitals (P ≤ .01).

Conclusions

There is evidence of frequent ward-based transmission of MRSA brought about by frequent patient admissions to multiple hospitals. Limiting in-ward transmission requires sharing of MRSA status data between hospitals.

Long-distance transmission patterns modelled from SNP barcodes of Plasmodium falciparum infections in The Gambia

Malaria has declined significantly in The Gambia and determining transmission dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum can help targeting control interventions towards elimination. This can be inferred from genetic similarity between parasite isolates from different sites and timepoints. Here, we imposed a P. falciparum life cycle time on a genetic distance likelihood model to determine transmission paths from a 54 SNP barcode of 355 isolates. Samples were collected monthly during the 2013 malaria season from six pairs of villages spanning 300 km from western to eastern Gambia. There was spatial and temporal hierarchy in pairwise genetic relatedness, with the most similar barcodes from isolates within the same households and village. Constrained by travel data, the model detected 60 directional transmission events, with 27% paths linking persons from different regions. We identified 13 infected individuals (4.2% of those genotyped) responsible for 2 to 8 subsequent infections within their communities. These super-infectors were mostly from high transmission villages. When considering paths between isolates from the most distant regions (west vs east) and travel history, there were 3 transmission paths from eastern to western Gambia, all at the peak (October) of the malaria transmission season. No paths with known travel originated from the extreme west to east. Although more than half of all paths were within-village, parasite flow from east to west may contribute to maintain transmission in western Gambia, where malaria transmission is already low. Therefore, interrupting malaria transmission in western Gambia would require targeting eastern Gambia, where malaria prevalence is substantially higher, with intensified malaria interventions.

Bayesian reconstruction of a vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus transmission route using epidemiologic data and genomic variants from whole genome sequencing

BACKGROUND

Outbreaks of vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) are a serious problem in hospitals. Inferring the transmission route is an important factor to institute appropriate infection control measures; however, the methodology has not been fully established.

AIM

To reconstruct and evaluate the transmission model using sequence variants extracted from whole genome sequencing (WGS) data and epidemiological information from patients involved in a VRE outbreak.

METHODS

During a VRE outbreak in our hospital, 23 samples were collected from patients and environmental surfaces and analysed using WGS. By combining genome alignment information with patient epidemiological data, the VRE transmission route was reconstructed using a Bayesian approach. With the transmission model, evaluation and further analyses were performed to identify risk factors that contributed to the outbreak.

FINDINGS

All VREs were identified as Enterococcus faecium belonging to sequence type 17, which consisted of two VRE genotypes: vanA (N = 8, including one environmental sample) and vanB (N = 15). The reconstruction model using the Bayesian approach showed the transmission direction with posterior probability and revealed transmission through an environmental surface. In addition, some cases acting as VRE spreaders were identified, which can interfere with appropriate infection control. Vancomycin administration was identified as a significant risk factor for spreaders.

CONCLUSION

A Bayesian approach for transmission route reconstruction using epidemiologic data and genomic variants from WGS can be applied in actual VRE outbreaks. This may contribute to the design and implementation of effective infection control measures.

Direct transmission of within-host Mycobacterium tuberculosis diversity to secondary cases can lead to variable between-host heterogeneity without de novo mutation: A genomic investigation

BACKGROUND

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) has enabled the development of new approaches to track Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission between tuberculosis (TB) cases but its utility may be challenged by the discovery that Mtb diversifies within hosts. Nevertheless, there is limited data on the presence and degree of within-host evolution.

METHODS

We profiled a well-documented Mtb transmission cluster with three pulmonary TB cases to investigate within-host evolution and describe its impact on recent transmission estimates. We used deep sequencing to track minority allele frequencies (<50·0% abundance) during transmission and standard treatment.

FINDINGS

Pre-treatment (n = 3) and serial samples collected over 2 months of antibiotic treatment (n = 16) from all three cases were analysed. Consistent with the epidemiological data, zero fixed SNP separated all genomes. However, we identified six subclones between the three cases with an allele frequency ranging from 35·0% to 100·0% across sampling intervals. Five subclones were identified within the index case pre-treatment and shared with one secondary case, while only the dominant clone was observed in the other secondary case. By tracking the frequency of these heterogeneous alleles over the two-month therapy, we observed distinct signatures of drift and negative selection, but limited evidence for de novo mutations, even under drug pressure.

INTERPRETATION

We document within-host Mtb diversity in an index case, which led to transmission of minority alleles to a secondary case. Incorporating data on heterogeneous alleles may refine our understanding of Mtb transmission dynamics. However, more evidence is needed on the role of transmission bottleneck on observed heterogeneity between cases.