Unsupervised extraction of epidemic syndromes from participatory influenza surveillance self-reported symptoms

Artificial intelligence-based prediction of pathogen emergence and evolution in the world of synthetic biology

The emergence of new techniques in both microbial biotechnology and artificial intelligence (AI) is opening up a completely new field for monitoring and sometimes even controlling the evolution of pathogens. However, the now famous generative AI extracts and reorganizes prior knowledge from large datasets, making it poorly suited to making predictions in an unreliable future. In contrast, an unfamiliar perspective can help us identify key issues related to the emergence of new technologies, such as those arising from synthetic biology, whilst revisiting old views of AI or including generative AI as a generator of abduction as a resource. This could enable us to identify dangerous situations that are bound to emerge in the not-too-distant future, and prepare ourselves to anticipate when and where they will occur. Here, we emphasize the fact that amongst the many causes of pathogen outbreaks, often driven by the explosion of the human population, laboratory accidents are a major cause of epidemics. This review, limited to animal pathogens, concludes with a discussion of potential epidemic origins based on unusual organisms or associations of organisms that have rarely been highlighted or studied.

SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B and respiratory syncytial virus positivity and association with influenza-like illness and self-reported symptoms, over the 2022/23 winter season in the UK: a longitudinal surveillance cohort

BACKGROUND

Syndromic surveillance often relies on patients presenting to healthcare. Community cohorts, although more challenging to recruit, could provide additional population-wide insights, particularly with SARS-CoV-2 co-circulating with other respiratory viruses.

METHODS

We estimated the positivity and incidence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B, and RSV, and trends in self-reported symptoms including influenza-like illness (ILI), over the 2022/23 winter season in a broadly representative UK community cohort (COVID-19 Infection Survey), using negative-binomial generalised additive models. We estimated associations between test positivity and each of the symptoms and influenza vaccination, using adjusted logistic and multinomial models.

RESULTS

Swabs taken at 32,937/1,352,979 (2.4%) assessments tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 181/14,939 (1.2%) for RSV and 130/14,939 (0.9%) for influenza A/B, varying by age over time. Positivity and incidence peaks were earliest for RSV, then influenza A/B, then SARS-CoV-2, and were highest for RSV in the youngest and for SARS-CoV-2 in the oldest age groups. Many test positives did not report key symptoms: middle-aged participants were generally more symptomatic than older or younger participants, but still, only ~ 25% reported ILI-WHO and ~ 60% ILI-ECDC. Most symptomatic participants did not test positive for any of the three viruses. Influenza A/B-positivity was lower in participants reporting influenza vaccination in the current and previous seasons (odds ratio = 0.55 (95% CI 0.32, 0.95)) versus neither season.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptom profiles varied little by aetiology, making distinguishing SARS-CoV-2, influenza and RSV using symptoms challenging. Most symptoms were not explained by these viruses, indicating the importance of other pathogens in syndromic surveillance. Influenza vaccination was associated with lower rates of community influenza test positivity.

Engaging a national-scale cohort of smart thermometer users in participatory surveillance

Participatory surveillance systems crowdsource individual reports to rapidly assess population health phenomena. The value of these systems increases when more people join and persistently contribute. We examine the level of and factors associated with engagement in participatory surveillance among a retrospective, national-scale cohort of individuals using smartphone-connected thermometers with a companion app that allows them to report demographic and symptom information. Between January 1, 2020 and October 29, 2022, 1,325,845 participants took 20,617,435 temperature readings, yielding 3,529,377 episodes of consecutive readings. There were 1,735,805 (49.2%) episodes with self-reported symptoms (including reports of no symptoms). Compared to before the pandemic, participants were more likely to report their symptoms during pandemic waves, especially after the winter wave began (September 13, 2020) (OR across pandemic periods range from 3.0 to 4.0). Further, symptoms were more likely to be reported during febrile episodes (OR = 2.6, 95% CI = 2.6-2.6), and for new participants, during their first episode (OR = 2.4, 95% CI = 2.4-2.5). Compared with participants aged 50-65 years old, participants over 65 years were less likely to report their symptoms (OR = 0.3, 95% CI = 0.3-0.3). Participants in a household with both adults and children (OR = 1.6 [1.6-1.7]) were more likely to report symptoms. We find that the use of smart thermometers with companion apps facilitates the collection of data on a large, national scale, and provides real time insight into transmissible disease phenomena. Nearly half of individuals using these devices are willing to report their symptoms after taking their temperature, although participation varies among individuals and over pandemic stages.

Exploring the State of Machine Learning and Deep Learning in Medicine: A Survey of the Italian Research Community

Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming increasingly important, especially in the medical field. While AI has been used in medicine for some time, its growth in the last decade is remarkable. Specifically, machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques in medicine have been increasingly adopted due to the growing abundance of health-related data, the improved suitability of such techniques for managing large datasets, and more computational power. ML and DL methodologies are fostering the development of new “intelligent” tools and expert systems to process data, to automatize human–machine interactions, and to deliver advanced predictive systems that are changing every aspect of the scientific research, industry, and society. The Italian scientific community was instrumental in advancing this research area. This article aims to conduct a comprehensive investigation of the ML and DL methodologies and applications used in medicine by the Italian research community in the last five years. To this end, we selected all the papers published in the last five years with at least one of the authors affiliated to an Italian institution that in the title, in the abstract, or in the keywords present the terms “machine learning” or “deep learning” and reference a medical area. We focused our research on journal papers under the hypothesis that Italian researchers prefer to present novel but well-established research in scientific journals. We then analyzed the selected papers considering different dimensions, including the medical topic, the type of data, the pre-processing methods, the learning methods, and the evaluation methods. As a final outcome, a comprehensive overview of the Italian research landscape is given, highlighting how the community has increasingly worked on a very heterogeneous range of medical problems.

Enabling Multicentric Participatory Disease Surveillance for Global Health Enhancement: Viewpoint on Global Flu View

Participatory surveillance (PS) has been defined as the bidirectional process of transmitting and receiving data for action by directly engaging the target population. Often represented as self-reported symptoms directly from the public, PS can provide evidence of an emerging disease or concentration of symptoms in certain areas, potentially identifying signs of an early outbreak. The construction of sets of symptoms to represent various disease syndromes provides a mechanism for the early detection of multiple health threats. Global Flu View (GFV) is the first-ever system that merges influenza-like illness (ILI) data from more than 8 countries plus 1 region (Hong Kong) on 4 continents for global monitoring of this annual health threat. GFV provides a digital ecosystem for spatial and temporal visualization of syndromic aggregates compatible with ILI from the various systems currently participating in GFV in near real time, updated weekly. In 2018, the first prototype of a digital platform to combine data from several ILI PS programs was created. At that time, the priority was to have a digital environment that brought together different programs through an application program interface, providing a real time map of syndromic trends that could demonstrate where and when ILI was spreading in various regions of the globe. After 2 years running as an experimental model and incorporating feedback from partner programs, GFV was restructured to empower the community of public health practitioners, data scientists, and researchers by providing an open data channel among these contributors for sharing experiences across the network. GFV was redesigned to serve not only as a data hub but also as a dynamic knowledge network around participatory ILI surveillance by providing knowledge exchange among programs. Connectivity between existing PS systems enables a network of cooperation and collaboration with great potential for continuous public health impact. The exchange of knowledge within this network is not limited only to health professionals and researchers but also provides an opportunity for the general public to have an active voice in the collective construction of health settings. The focus on preparing the next generation of epidemiologists will be of great importance to scale innovative approaches like PS. GFV provides a useful example of the value of globally integrated PS data to help reduce the risks and damages of the next pandemic.

Influenza surveillance systems using traditional and alternative sources of data: A scoping review

OBJECTIVE

While the World Health Organization's recommendation of syndromic sentinel surveillance for influenza is an efficient method to collect high-quality data, limitations exist. Aligned with the Research Recommendation 1.1.2 of the WHO Public Health Research Agenda for Influenza-to identify reliable complementary influenza surveillance systems which provide real-time estimates of influenza activity-we performed a scoping review to map the extent and nature of published literature on the use of non-traditional sources of syndromic surveillance data for influenza.

METHODS

We searched three electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus) for articles in English, French, and Spanish, published between January 1 2007 and January 28 2022. Studies were included if they directly compared at least one non-traditional with a traditional influenza surveillance system in terms of correlation in activity or timeliness.

FINDINGS

We retrieved 823 articles of which 57 were included for analysis. Fifteen articles considered electronic health records (EHR), 11 participatory surveillance, 10 online searches and webpage traffic, seven Twitter, five absenteeism, four telephone health lines, three medication sales, two media reporting, and five looked at other miscellaneous sources of data. Several articles considered more than one non-traditional surveillance method.

CONCLUSION

We identified eight categories and a miscellaneous group of non-traditional influenza surveillance systems with varying levels of evidence on timeliness and correlation to traditional surveillance systems. Analyses of EHR and participatory surveillance systems appeared to have the most agreement on timeliness and correlation to traditional systems. Studies suggested non-traditional surveillance systems as complements rather than replacements to traditional systems.

Calculating incidence of Influenza-like and COVID-like symptoms from Flutracking participatory survey data

This article describes a new method for estimating weekly incidence (new onset) of symptoms consistent with Influenza and COVID-19, using data from the Flutracking survey. The method mitigates some of the known self-selection and symptom-reporting biases present in existing approaches to this type of participatory longitudinal survey data. The key novel steps in the analysis are: 1) Identifying new onset of symptoms for three different Symptom Groupings: COVID-like illness (CLI1+, CLI2+), and Influenza-like illness (ILI), for responses reported in the Flutracking survey. 2) Adjusting for symptom reporting bias by restricting the analysis to a sub-set of responses from those participants who have consistently responded for a number of weeks prior to the analysis week. 3) Weighting responses by age to adjust for self-selection bias in order to account for the under- and over-representation of different age groups amongst the survey participants. This uses the survey package [22] in R [30]. 4) Constructing 95% point-wise confidence bands for incidence estimates using weighted logistic regression from the survey package [21] in R [28]. In addition to describing these steps, the article demonstrates an application of this method to Flutracking data for the 12 months from 27th April 2020 until 25th April 2021.

Correlation-Based Discovery of Disease Patterns for Syndromic Surveillance

Early outbreak detection is a key aspect in the containment of infectious diseases, as it enables the identification and isolation of infected individuals before the disease can spread to a larger population. Instead of detecting unexpected increases of infections by monitoring confirmed cases, syndromic surveillance aims at the detection of cases with early symptoms, which allows a more timely disclosure of outbreaks. However, the definition of these disease patterns is often challenging, as early symptoms are usually shared among many diseases and a particular disease can have several clinical pictures in the early phase of an infection. As a first step toward the goal to support epidemiologists in the process of defining reliable disease patterns, we present a novel, data-driven approach to discover such patterns in historic data. The key idea is to take into account the correlation between indicators in a health-related data source and the reported number of infections in the respective geographic region. In an preliminary experimental study, we use data from several emergency departments to discover disease patterns for three infectious diseases. Our results show the potential of the proposed approach to find patterns that correlate with the reported infections and to identify indicators that are related to the respective diseases. It also motivates the need for additional measures to overcome practical limitations, such as the requirement to deal with noisy and unbalanced data, and demonstrates the importance of incorporating feedback of domain experts into the learning procedure.

Epidemiology of influenza under the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in Nanjing, China

PURPOSE

Since the pandemic of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), the incidence of influenza has decreased significantly, but there are still few reports in the short period before and after the pandemic period. This study aimed to explore influenza activity and dynamic changes before and during the pandemic.

METHODS

A total of 1,324,357 influenza-like illness (ILI) cases were reported under ILI surveillance network from Jan 1, 2018 to Sep 5, 2021 in Nanjing, of which 16,158 cases were detected in laboratory. Differences of ILI and influenza was conducted with the chi-square test.

RESULTS

The number of ILI cases accounted for 8.97% of outpatient and emergency department visits. The influenza-positive ratio (IPR) was 7.84% in ILI cases. During the COVID-19 pandemic, ILI% and IPR dropped by 6.03% and 11.83% on average, respectively. Besides, IPR rose slightly in Week 30-35 of 2021. Not only differences in gender, age and employment status, but also the circulating strains had changed from type A to B through the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSION

The level of influenza activity was severely affected by COVID-19, but it seemed that it is inevitable to be vigilant against the co-circulation in the future. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Influenza forecasting for French regions combining EHR, web and climatic data sources with a machine learning ensemble approach

Effective and timely disease surveillance systems have the potential to help public health officials design interventions to mitigate the effects of disease outbreaks. Currently, healthcare-based disease monitoring systems in France offer influenza activity information that lags real-time by one to three weeks. This temporal data gap introduces uncertainty that prevents public health officials from having a timely perspective on the population-level disease activity. Here, we present a machine-learning modeling approach that produces real-time estimates and short-term forecasts of influenza activity for the twelve continental regions of France by leveraging multiple disparate data sources that include, Google search activity, real-time and local weather information, flu-related Twitter micro-blogs, electronic health records data, and historical disease activity synchronicities across regions. Our results show that all data sources contribute to improving influenza surveillance and that machine-learning ensembles that combine all data sources lead to accurate and timely predictions.

Digital microbiology

BACKGROUND

Digitalization and artificial intelligence have an important impact on the way microbiology laboratories will work in the near future. Opportunities and challenges lie ahead to digitalize the microbiological workflows. Making efficient use of big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence in clinical microbiology requires a profound understanding of data handling aspects.

OBJECTIVE

This review article summarizes the most important concepts of digital microbiology. The article gives microbiologists, clinicians and data scientists a viewpoint and practical examples along the diagnostic process.

SOURCES

We used peer-reviewed literature identified by a PubMed search for digitalization, machine learning, artificial intelligence and microbiology.

CONTENT

We describe the opportunities and challenges of digitalization in microbiological diagnostic processes with various examples. We also provide in this context key aspects of data structure and interoperability, as well as legal aspects. Finally, we outline the way for applications in a modern microbiology laboratory.

IMPLICATIONS

We predict that digitalization and the usage of machine learning will have a profound impact on the daily routine of laboratory staff. Along the analytical process, the most important steps should be identified, where digital technologies can be applied and provide a benefit. The education of all staff involved should be adapted to prepare for the advances in digital microbiology.

Usefulness of Clinical Definitions of Influenza for Public Health Surveillance Purposes

This study investigated the performance of various case definitions and influenza symptoms in a primary healthcare sentinel surveillance system. A retrospective study of the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of the cases reported by a primary healthcare sentinel surveillance network for eleven years in Catalonia was conducted. Crude and adjusted diagnostic odds ratios (aDORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the case definitions and symptoms for all weeks and epidemic weeks were estimated. The most predictive case definition for laboratory-confirmed influenza was the World Health Organization (WHO) case definition for ILI in all weeks (aDOR 2.69; 95% CI 2.42-2.99) and epidemic weeks (aDOR 2.20; 95% CI 1.90-2.54). The symptoms that were significant positive predictors for confirmed influenza were fever, cough, myalgia, headache, malaise, and sudden onset. Fever had the highest aDOR in all weeks (4.03; 95% CI 3.38-4.80) and epidemic weeks (2.78; 95% CI 2.21-3.50). All of the case definitions assessed performed better in patients with comorbidities than in those without. The performance of symptoms varied by age groups, with fever being of high value in older people, and cough being of high value in children. In patients with comorbidities, the performance of fever was the highest (aDOR 5.45; 95% CI 3.43-8.66). No differences in the performance of the case definition or symptoms in influenza cases according to virus type were found.