SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B and respiratory syncytial virus positivity and association with influenza-like illness and self-reported symptoms, over the 2022/23 winter season in the UK: a longitudinal surveillance cohort

BACKGROUND

Syndromic surveillance often relies on patients presenting to healthcare. Community cohorts, although more challenging to recruit, could provide additional population-wide insights, particularly with SARS-CoV-2 co-circulating with other respiratory viruses.

METHODS

We estimated the positivity and incidence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B, and RSV, and trends in self-reported symptoms including influenza-like illness (ILI), over the 2022/23 winter season in a broadly representative UK community cohort (COVID-19 Infection Survey), using negative-binomial generalised additive models. We estimated associations between test positivity and each of the symptoms and influenza vaccination, using adjusted logistic and multinomial models.

RESULTS

Swabs taken at 32,937/1,352,979 (2.4%) assessments tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 181/14,939 (1.2%) for RSV and 130/14,939 (0.9%) for influenza A/B, varying by age over time. Positivity and incidence peaks were earliest for RSV, then influenza A/B, then SARS-CoV-2, and were highest for RSV in the youngest and for SARS-CoV-2 in the oldest age groups. Many test positives did not report key symptoms: middle-aged participants were generally more symptomatic than older or younger participants, but still, only ~ 25% reported ILI-WHO and ~ 60% ILI-ECDC. Most symptomatic participants did not test positive for any of the three viruses. Influenza A/B-positivity was lower in participants reporting influenza vaccination in the current and previous seasons (odds ratio = 0.55 (95% CI 0.32, 0.95)) versus neither season.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptom profiles varied little by aetiology, making distinguishing SARS-CoV-2, influenza and RSV using symptoms challenging. Most symptoms were not explained by these viruses, indicating the importance of other pathogens in syndromic surveillance. Influenza vaccination was associated with lower rates of community influenza test positivity.

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures.

METHODS

In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025.

FINDINGS

Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation.

INTERPRETATION

After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Evaluation of Nanopore sequencing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing and outbreak investigation: a genomic analysis

BACKGROUND

Mycobacterium tuberculosis whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has been widely used for genotypic drug susceptibility testing (DST) and outbreak investigation. For both applications, Illumina technology is used by most public health laboratories; however, Nanopore technology developed by Oxford Nanopore Technologies has not been thoroughly evaluated. The aim of this study was to determine whether Nanopore sequencing data can provide equivalent information to Illumina for transmission clustering and genotypic DST for M tuberculosis.

METHODS

In this genomic analysis, we analysed 151 M tuberculosis isolates from Madagascar, South Africa, and England, which were collected between 2011 and 2018, using phenotypic DST and matched Illumina and Nanopore data. Illumina sequencing was done with the MiSeq, HiSeq 2500, or NextSeq500 platforms and Nanopore sequencing was done on the MinION or GridION platforms. Using highly reliable PacBio sequencing assemblies and pairwise distance correlation between Nanopore and Illumina data, we optimise Nanopore variant filters for detecting single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; using BCFtools software). We then used those SNPs to compare transmission clusters identified by Nanopore with the currently used UK Health Security Agency Illumina pipeline (COMPASS). We compared Illumina and Nanopore WGS-based DST predictions using the Mykrobe software and mutation catalogue.

FINDINGS

The Nanopore BCFtools pipeline identified SNPs with a median precision of 99·3% (IQR 99·1-99·6) and recall of 90·2% (88·1-94·2) compared with a precision of 99·6% (99·4-99·7) and recall of 91·9% (87·6-98·6) using the Illumina COMPASS pipeline. Using a threshold of 12 SNPs for putative transmission clusters, Illumina identified 98 isolates as unrelated and 53 as belonging to 19 distinct clusters (size range 2-7). Nanopore reproduced 15 out of 19 clusters perfectly; two clusters were merged into one cluster, one cluster had a single sample missing, and one cluster had an additional sample adjoined. Illumina-based clusters were also closely replicated using a five SNP threshold and clustering accuracy was maintained using mixed Illumina and Nanopore datasets. Genotyping resistance variants with Nanopore was highly concordant with Illumina, having zero discordant SNPs across more than 3000 SNPs and four insertions or deletions (indels), across 60 000 indels.

INTERPRETATION

Illumina and Nanopore technologies can be used independently or together by public health laboratories performing M tuberculosis genotypic DST and outbreak investigations. As a result, clinical and public health institutions making decisions on which sequencing technology to adopt for tuberculosis can base the choice on cost (which varies by country), batching, and turnaround time.

FUNDING

Academy for Medical Sciences, Oxford Wellcome Institutional Strategic Support Fund, and the Swiss South Africa Joint Research Award (Swiss National Science Foundation and South African National Research Foundation).

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

M. tuberculosis microvariation is common and is associated with transmission: analysis of three years prospective universal sequencing in England

BACKGROUND

The prevalence, association with disease status, and public health impact of infection with mixtures of M. tuberculosis strains is unclear, in part due to limitations of existing methods for detecting mixed infections.

METHODS

We developed an algorithm to identify mixtures of M. tuberculosis strains using next generation sequencing data, assessing performance using simulated sequences. We identified mixed M. tuberculosis strains when there was at least one mixed nucleotide position, and where both the mixture's components were present in similar isolates from other individuals, compatible with transmission of the component strains. We determined risk factors for mixed infection among isolations of M. tuberculosis in England using logistic regression. We used survival analyses to assess the association between mixed infection and putative transmission.

FINDINGS

6,560 isolations of TB were successfully sequenced in England 2016-2018. Of 3,691 (56%) specimens for which similar sequences had been isolated from at least two other individuals, 341 (9.2%) were mixed. Mixed infection was more common in lineages other than Lineage 4. Among the 1,823 individuals with pulmonary infection with Lineage 4 M. tuberculosis, mixed infection was associated with significantly increased risk of subsequent isolation of closely related organisms from a different individual (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.05,1.94), indicative of transmission.

INTERPRETATION

Mixtures of transmissible strains occur in at least 5% of tuberculosis infections in England; when present in pulmonary disease, such mixtures are associated with an increased risk of tuberculosis transmission.

FUNDING

Public Health England; NIHR Health Protection Research Units; European Union.

Molecular epidemiology and antimicrobial resistance phenotype of paediatric bloodstream infections caused by Gram-negative bacteria

Background

Gram-negative organisms are common causes of bloodstream infection (BSI) during the neonatal period and early childhood. Whilst several large studies have characterised these isolates in adults, equivalent data (particularly incorporating whole genome sequencing) is lacking in the paediatric population.

Methods

We perform an epidemiological and sequencing based analysis of Gram-negative bloodstream infections (327 isolates (296 successfully sequenced) from 287 patients) in children <18 years old between 2008 and 2018 in Oxfordshire, UK.

Results

Here we show that the burden of infection lies predominantly in neonates and that most infections are caused by Escherichia coli, Klebsiella spp. and Enterobacter hormaechei. There is no evidence in our setting that the proportion of antimicrobial resistant isolates is increasing in the paediatric population although we identify some evidence of sub-breakpoint increases in gentamicin resistance. The population structure of E. coli BSI isolates in neonates and children mirrors that in adults with a predominance of STs 131/95/73/69 and the same proportions of O-antigen serotypes. In most cases in our setting there is no evidence of transmission/point-source acquisition and we demonstrate the utility of whole genome sequencing to refute a previously suspected outbreak.

Conclusions

Our findings support continued use of current empirical treatment guidelines and suggest that O-antigen targeted vaccines may have a role in reducing the incidence of neonatal sepsis.

Improving patient flow during infectious disease outbreaks using machine learning for real-time prediction of patient readiness for discharge

BACKGROUND

Delays in patient flow and a shortage of hospital beds are commonplace in hospitals during periods of increased infection incidence, such as seasonal influenza and the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate the efficacy of machine learning methods at identifying and ranking the real-time readiness of individual patients for discharge, with the goal of improving patient flow within hospitals during periods of crisis.

METHODS AND PERFORMANCE

Electronic Health Record data from Oxford University Hospitals was used to train independent models to classify and rank patients' real-time readiness for discharge within 24 hours, for patient subsets according to the nature of their admission (planned or emergency) and the number of days elapsed since their admission. A strategy for the use of the models' inference is proposed, by which the model makes predictions for all patients in hospital and ranks them in order of likelihood of discharge within the following 24 hours. The 20% of patients with the highest ranking are considered as candidates for discharge and would therefore expect to have a further screening by a clinician to confirm whether they are ready for discharge or not. Performance was evaluated in terms of positive predictive value (PPV), i.e., the proportion of these patients who would have been correctly deemed as 'ready for discharge' after having the second screening by a clinician. Performance was high for patients on their first day of admission (PPV = 0.96/0.94 for planned/emergency patients respectively) but dropped for patients further into a longer admission (PPV = 0.66/0.71 for planned/emergency patients still in hospital after 7 days).

CONCLUSION

We demonstrate the efficacy of machine learning methods at making operationally focused, next-day discharge readiness predictions for all individual patients in hospital at any given moment and propose a strategy for their use within a decision-support tool during crisis periods.

Preferences for Medical Consultations from Online Providers: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

In the UK, consultations for prescription medicines are available via private providers such as online pharmacies. However, these providers may have lower thresholds for prescribing certain drugs. This is a particular concern for antibiotics, given the increasing burden of antimicrobial resistance. Public preferences for consultations with online providers are unknown, hence the impact of increased availability of online consultations on antibiotic use and population health is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a discrete choice experiment survey to understand UK public preferences for seeking online consultations, and the factors that influence these preferences, in the context of having symptoms for which antibiotics may be appropriate.

METHODS

In a survey conducted between July and August 2018, general population respondents completed 16 questions in which they chose a primary care consultation via either their local medical centre or an online provider. Consultations were described in terms of five attributes, including cost and similarity to traditional 'face-to-face' appointments. Choices were modelled using regression analysis.

RESULTS

Respondents (n = 734) placed a high value on having a consultation via their local medical centre rather than an online provider, and a low value on consultations by phone or video. However, respondents characterised as 'busy young professionals' showed a lower strength of preference for traditional consultations, with a higher concern for convenience.

CONCLUSION

Before COVID-19, the UK public had limited appetite for consultations with online providers, or for consultations that were not face-to-face. Nevertheless, prescriptions from online providers should be monitored going forward, particularly for antibiotics, and in key patient groups.

COVID-19: Rapid antigen detection for SARS-CoV-2 by lateral flow assay: A national systematic evaluation of sensitivity and specificity for mass-testing

BACKGROUND

Lateral flow device (LFD) viral antigen immunoassays have been developed around the world as diagnostic tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection. They have been proposed to deliver an infrastructure-light, cost-economical solution giving results within half an hour.

METHODS

LFDs were initially reviewed by a Department of Health and Social Care team, part of the UK government, from which 64 were selected for further evaluation from 1st August to 15th December 2020. Standardised laboratory evaluations, and for those that met the published criteria, field testing in the Falcon-C19 research study and UK pilots were performed (UK COVID-19 testing centres, hospital, schools, armed forces).

FINDINGS

4/64 LFDs so far have desirable performance characteristics (orient Gene, Deepblue, Abbott and Innova SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Qualitative Test). All these LFDs have a viral antigen detection of >90% at 100,000 RNA copies/ml. 8951 Innova LFD tests were performed with a kit failure rate of 5.6% (502/8951, 95% CI: 5.1-6.1), false positive rate of 0.32% (22/6954, 95% CI: 0.20-0.48). Viral antigen detection/sensitivity across the sampling cohort when performed by laboratory scientists was 78.8% (156/198, 95% CI 72.4-84.3).

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest LFDs have promising performance characteristics for mass population testing and can be used to identify infectious positive individuals. The Innova LFD shows good viral antigen detection/sensitivity with excellent specificity, although kit failure rates and the impact of training are potential issues. These results support the expanded evaluation of LFDs, and assessment of greater access to testing on COVID-19 transmission.

FUNDING

Department of Health and Social Care. University of Oxford. Public Health England Porton Down, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, National Institute of Health Research.

Rapid triage for COVID-19 using routine clinical data for patients attending hospital: development and prospective validation of an artificial intelligence screening test

BACKGROUND

The early clinical course of COVID-19 can be difficult to distinguish from other illnesses driving presentation to hospital. However, viral-specific PCR testing has limited sensitivity and results can take up to 72 h for operational reasons. We aimed to develop and validate two early-detection models for COVID-19, screening for the disease among patients attending the emergency department and the subset being admitted to hospital, using routinely collected health-care data (laboratory tests, blood gas measurements, and vital signs). These data are typically available within the first hour of presentation to hospitals in high-income and middle-income countries, within the existing laboratory infrastructure.

METHODS

We trained linear and non-linear machine learning classifiers to distinguish patients with COVID-19 from pre-pandemic controls, using electronic health record data for patients presenting to the emergency department and admitted across a group of four teaching hospitals in Oxfordshire, UK (Oxford University Hospitals). Data extracted included presentation blood tests, blood gas testing, vital signs, and results of PCR testing for respiratory viruses. Adult patients (>18 years) presenting to hospital before Dec 1, 2019 (before the first COVID-19 outbreak), were included in the COVID-19-negative cohort; those presenting to hospital between Dec 1, 2019, and April 19, 2020, with PCR-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection were included in the COVID-19-positive cohort. Patients who were subsequently admitted to hospital were included in their respective COVID-19-negative or COVID-19-positive admissions cohorts. Models were calibrated to sensitivities of 70%, 80%, and 90% during training, and performance was initially assessed on a held-out test set generated by an 80:20 split stratified by patients with COVID-19 and balanced equally with pre-pandemic controls. To simulate real-world performance at different stages of an epidemic, we generated test sets with varying prevalences of COVID-19 and assessed predictive values for our models. We prospectively validated our 80% sensitivity models for all patients presenting or admitted to the Oxford University Hospitals between April 20 and May 6, 2020, comparing model predictions with PCR test results.

FINDINGS

We assessed 155 689 adult patients presenting to hospital between Dec 1, 2017, and April 19, 2020. 114 957 patients were included in the COVID-negative cohort and 437 in the COVID-positive cohort, for a full study population of 115 394 patients, with 72 310 admitted to hospital. With a sensitive configuration of 80%, our emergency department (ED) model achieved 77·4% sensitivity and 95·7% specificity (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0·939) for COVID-19 among all patients attending hospital, and the admissions model achieved 77·4% sensitivity and 94·8% specificity (AUROC 0·940) for the subset of patients admitted to hospital. Both models achieved high negative predictive values (NPV; >98·5%) across a range of prevalences (≤5%). We prospectively validated our models for all patients presenting and admitted to Oxford University Hospitals in a 2-week test period. The ED model (3326 patients) achieved 92·3% accuracy (NPV 97·6%, AUROC 0·881), and the admissions model (1715 patients) achieved 92·5% accuracy (97·7%, 0·871) in comparison with PCR results. Sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty in negative PCR results improved apparent accuracy (ED model 95·1%, admissions model 94·1%) and NPV (ED model 99·0%, admissions model 98·5%).

INTERPRETATION

Our models performed effectively as a screening test for COVID-19, excluding the illness with high-confidence by use of clinical data routinely available within 1 h of presentation to hospital. Our approach is rapidly scalable, fitting within the existing laboratory testing infrastructure and standard of care of hospitals in high-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, University of Oxford, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Case Report: Disseminated, rifampicin resistant Mycobacterium bovis (BCG) infection in an immunocompromised child

Background: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is a live-attenuated vaccine used world-wide for prevention of tuberculosis disease. In some immunocompromised hosts it has the potential to cause disease. As with other members of the M. tuberculosis complex it has the potential for acquiring drug resistance. Methods: We reviewed 10 years of paediatric clinical BCG strains referred to our clinical microbiology laboratory in Oxford where they underwent whole genome sequencing. We present a case series comparing clinical, pathogen genetic and pathogen phenotypic data, and consider the clinical implications. Results: We identified 15 BCG isolates from 8 children under 16 years old. Only one child had clinical disease with the other seven reported as local inoculation-site reactions. Case 1 suffered disseminated disease secondary to an undiagnosed IL-12/IFNγ receptor defect and the BCG isolates evolved two different rifampicin resistance mutations. Across all 15 isolates, phenotypic resistance to each first line drug was seen.  Conclusions: BCG is a safe and effective vaccine in children. Most clinical specimens in our series were not related to disease. However, in the context of rare pathogen-specific immunocompromise, BCG can cause pathology and acquire drug resistance under selection from therapy.

Why do hospital prescribers continue antibiotics when it is safe to stop? Results of a choice experiment survey

BACKGROUND

Deciding whether to discontinue antibiotics at early review is a cornerstone of hospital antimicrobial stewardship practice worldwide. In England, this approach is described in government guidance ('Start Smart then Focus'). However, < 10% of hospital antibiotic prescriptions are discontinued at review, despite evidence that 20-30% could be discontinued safely. We aimed to quantify the relative importance of factors influencing prescriber decision-making at review.

METHODS

We conducted an online choice experiment, a survey method to elicit preferences. Acute/general hospital prescribers in England were asked if they would continue or discontinue antibiotic treatment in 15 hypothetical scenarios. Scenarios were described according to six attributes, including patients' presenting symptoms and whether discontinuation would conflict with local prescribing guidelines. Respondents' choices were analysed using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

One hundred respondents completed the survey. Respondents were more likely to continue antibiotics when discontinuation would 'strongly conflict' with local guidelines (average marginal effect (AME) on the probability of continuing + 0.194 (p < 0.001)), when presenting symptoms more clearly indicated antibiotics (AME of urinary tract infection symptoms + 0.173 (p < 0.001) versus unclear symptoms) and when patients had severe frailty/comorbidities (AME = + 0.101 (p < 0.001)). Respondents were less likely to continue antibiotics when under no external pressure to continue (AME = - 0.101 (p < 0.001)). Decisions were also influenced by the risks to patient health of continuing/discontinuing antibiotic treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Guidelines that conflict with antibiotic discontinuation (e.g. pre-specify fixed durations) may discourage safe discontinuation at review. In contrast, guidelines conditional on patient factors/treatment response could help hospital prescribers discontinue antibiotics if diagnostic information suggesting they are no longer needed is available.

Reducing expectations for antibiotics in primary care: a randomised experiment to test the response to fear-based messages about antimicrobial resistance

BACKGROUND

To reduce inappropriate antibiotic use, public health campaigns often provide fear-based information about antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Meta-analyses have found that fear-based campaigns in other contexts are likely to be ineffective unless respondents feel confident they can carry out the recommended behaviour ('self-efficacy'). This study aimed to test the likely impact of fear-based messages, with and without empowering self-efficacy elements, on patient consultations/antibiotic requests for influenza-like illnesses, using a randomised design.

METHODS

We hypothesised that fear-based messages containing empowering information about self-management without antibiotics would be more effective than fear alone, particularly in a pre-specified subgroup with low AMR awareness. Four thousand respondents from an online panel, representative of UK adults, were randomised to receive three different messages about antibiotic use and AMR, designed to induce fear about AMR to varying degrees. Two messages (one 'strong-fear', one 'mild-fear') also contained empowering information regarding influenza-like symptoms being easily self-managed without antibiotics. The main outcome measures were self-reported effect of information on likelihood of visiting a doctor and requesting antibiotics, for influenza-like illness, analysed separately according to whether or not the AMR information was 'very/somewhat new' to respondents, pre-specified based on a previous (non-randomised) survey.

RESULTS

The 'fear-only' message was 'very/somewhat new' to 285/1000 (28.5%) respondents, 'mild-fear-plus-empowerment' to 336/1500 (22.4%), and 'strong-fear-plus-empowerment' to 388/1500 (25.9%) (p = 0.002). Of those for whom the respective information was 'very/somewhat new', only those given the 'strong-fear-plus-empowerment' message said they would be less likely to request antibiotics if they visited a doctor for an influenza-like illness (p < 0.0001; 182/388 (46.9%) 'much less likely'/'less likely', versus 116/336 (34.5%) with 'mild-fear-plus-empowerment' versus 85/285 (29.8%) with 'fear-alone'). Those for whom the respective information was not 'very/somewhat new' said they would be less likely to request antibiotics for influenza-like illness (p < 0.0001) across all messages (interaction p < 0.0001 versus 'very/somewhat new' subgroup). The three messages had analogous self-reported effects on likelihood of visiting a doctor and in subgroups defined by believing antibiotics would 'definitely/probably' help an influenza-like illness. Results were reproduced in an independent randomised survey (additional 4000 adults).

CONCLUSIONS

Fear could be effective in public campaigns to reduce inappropriate antibiotic use, but should be combined with messages empowering patients to self-manage symptoms effectively without antibiotics.

Reducing demand for antibiotic prescriptions: evidence from an online survey of the general public on the interaction between preferences, beliefs and information, United Kingdom, 2015

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR), a major public health threat, is strongly associated with human antibiotic consumption. Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) account for substantial inappropriate antibiotic use; patient understanding and expectations probably play an important role. Aim: This study aimed to investigate what drives patient expectations of antibiotics for ILI and particularly whether AMR awareness, risk preferences (attitudes to taking risks with health) or time preferences (the extent to which people prioritise good health today over good health in the future) play a role. Methods: In 2015, a representative online panel survey of 2,064 adults in the United Kingdom was asked about antibiotic use and effectiveness for ILI. Explanatory variables in multivariable regression included AMR awareness, risk and time preferences and covariates. Results: The tendency not to prioritise immediate gain over later reward was independently strongly associated with greater awareness that antibiotics are inappropriate for ILI. Independently, believing antibiotics were effective for ILI and low AMR awareness significantly predicted reported antibiotic use. However, 272 (39%) of those with low AMR awareness said that the AMR information we provided would lead them to ask a doctor for antibiotics more often, significantly more than would do so less often, and in contrast to those with high AMR awareness (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: Information campaigns to reduce AMR may risk a paradoxical consequence of actually increasing public demand for antibiotics. Public antibiotic stewardship campaigns should be tested on a small scale before wider adoption.

A case of transient diplopia and ophthalmoplegia following dental anesthesia

Dental anesthesia is one of the most frequently performed medical procedures. Although the frequency of ocular complications is extremely low, these reactions can be highly alarming and may bring up medicolegal issues when they do occur. Dentists and oral surgeons should be well-informed of these adverse reactions and should be aware that both ophthalmologists and emergency physicians might be required to care for these patients.

SNP-IT Tool for Identifying Subspecies and Associated Lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex

The clinical phenotype of zoonotic tuberculosis and its contribution to the global burden of disease are poorly understood and probably underestimated. This shortcoming is partly because of the inability of currently available laboratory and in silico tools to accurately identify all subspecies of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). We present SNPs to Identify TB (SNP-IT), a single-nucleotide polymorphism-based tool to identify all members of MTBC, including animal clades. By applying SNP-IT to a collection of clinical genomes from a UK reference laboratory, we detected an unexpectedly high number of M. orygis isolates. M. orygis is seen at a similar rate to M. bovis, yet M. orygis cases have not been previously described in the United Kingdom. From an international perspective, it is possible that M. orygis is an underestimated zoonosis. Accurate identification will enable study of the clinical phenotype, host range, and transmission mechanisms of all subspecies of MTBC in greater detail.

Barriers to and enablers of diabetic retinopathy screening attendance: a systematic review of published and grey literature

AIMS

To identify and synthesize studies reporting modifiable barriers/enablers associated with retinopathy screening attendance in people with Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes, and to identify those most likely to influence attendance.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library and the 'grey literature' for quantitative and qualitative studies to February 2017. Data (i.e. participant quotations, interpretive summaries, survey results) reporting barriers/enablers were extracted and deductively coded into domains from the Theoretical Domains Framework; with domains representing categories of theoretical barriers/enablers proposed to mediate behaviour change. Inductive thematic analysis was conducted within domains to describe the role each domain plays in facilitating or hindering screening attendance. Domains that were more frequently coded and for which more themes were generated were judged more likely to influence attendance.

RESULTS

Sixty-nine primary studies were included. We identified six theoretical domains ['environmental context and resources' (75% of included studies), 'social influences' (51%), 'knowledge' (51%), 'memory, attention, decision processes' (50%), 'beliefs about consequences' (38%) and 'emotions' (33%)] as the key mediators of diabetic retinopathy screening attendance. Examples of barriers populating these domains included inaccurate diabetic registers and confusion between routine eye care and retinopathy screening. Recommendations by healthcare professionals and community-level media coverage acted as enablers.

CONCLUSIONS

Across a variety of contexts, we found common barriers to and enablers of retinopathy screening that could be targeted in interventions aiming to increase screening attendance.

Control of Artifactual Variation in Reported Intersample Relatedness during Clinical Use of a Mycobacterium tuberculosis Sequencing Pipeline

Contact tracing requires reliable identification of closely related bacterial isolates. When we noticed the reporting of artifactual variation between Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates during routine next-generation sequencing of Mycobacterium spp., we investigated its basis in 2,018 consecutive M. tuberculosis isolates. In the routine process used, clinical samples were decontaminated and inoculated into broth cultures; from positive broth cultures DNA was extracted and sequenced, reads were mapped, and consensus sequences were determined. We investigated the process of consensus sequence determination, which selects the most common nucleotide at each position. Having determined the high-quality read depth and depth of minor variants across 8,006 M. tuberculosis genomic regions, we quantified the relationship between the minor variant depth and the amount of nonmycobacterial bacterial DNA, which originates from commensal microbes killed during sample decontamination. In the presence of nonmycobacterial bacterial DNA, we found significant increases in minor variant frequencies, of more than 1.5-fold, in 242 regions covering 5.1% of the M. tuberculosis genome. Included within these were four high-variation regions strongly influenced by the amount of nonmycobacterial bacterial DNA. Excluding these four regions from pairwise distance comparisons reduced biologically implausible variation from 5.2% to 0% in an independent validation set derived from 226 individuals. Thus, we demonstrated an approach identifying critical genomic regions contributing to clinically relevant artifactual variation in bacterial similarity searches. The approach described monitors the outputs of the complex multistep laboratory and bioinformatics process, allows periodic process adjustments, and will have application to quality control of routine bacterial genomics.

Retinal vascular diameters in relation to physical activity in Danish children - The CHAMPS Eye Study

Our objective was to determine associations between retinal vascular caliber and physical activity (PA) in a school-based child cohort. In a prospective study, we created a childhood cumulative average PA-index using objectively measured PA (accelerometry) assessed at four periods between 2009 and 2015. Cumulative exposure to PA intensities was estimated. Cross-sectional examinations on biomarkers, anthropometry, and ophthalmological data including retinal fundus photographs were performed in 2015. Semi-automated measurements of retinal vascular diameters were performed and summarized into central retinal arteriolar and venular equivalents (CRAE, CRVE). We included 307 participants. Mean age in 2015 was 15.4 years (0.7). The mean CRAE and CRVE were 156.5 μm (2.8) and 217.6 μm (7.7), respectively. After adjusting for age, gender, and axial length, more time in PA was independently related to thinner retinal venules (β-coefficient = -1.25 μm/%, 95% confidence interval = -2.20, -0.30, P < .01). Sedentary time was associated with wider venules (P < .01). Furthermore, birthweight (β-coefficient = 0.56 μm/%, 95% confidence interval = 0.18, 0.95, P < .01) was associated with CRVE. Blood pressure was associated with thinner retinal arterioles (β-coefficient = -0.19 μm/mmHg, 95% confidence interval = -0.36, -0.01, P = .04). We concluded that children with higher PA in childhood had thinner retinal venular caliber. Our results suggest that PA during childhood positively impacts the retinal microcirculation and that retinal vascular analysis may be a possible assessment to detect microvascular impairments in children with an increased risk of future cardiovascular disease.

BugMat and FindNeighbour: command line and server applications for investigating bacterial relatedness

BACKGROUND

Large scale bacterial sequencing has made the determination of genetic relationships within large sequence collections of bacterial genomes derived from the same microbial species an increasingly common task. Solutions to the problem have application to public health (for example, in the detection of possible disease transmission), and as part of divide-and-conquer strategies selecting groups of similar isolates for computationally intensive methods of phylogenetic inference using (for example) maximal likelihood methods. However, the generation and maintenance of distance matrices is computationally intensive, and rapid methods of doing so are needed to allow translation of microbial genomics into public health actions.

RESULTS

We developed, tested and deployed three solutions. BugMat is a fast C++ application which generates one-off in-memory distance matrices. FindNeighbour and FindNeighbour2 are server-side applications which build, maintain, and persist either complete (for FindNeighbour) or sparse (for FindNeighbour2) distance matrices given a set of sequences. FindNeighbour and BugMat use a variation model to accelerate computation, while FindNeighbour2 uses reference-based compression. Performance metrics show scalability into tens of thousands of sequences, with options for scaling further.

CONCLUSION

Three applications, each with distinct strengths and weaknesses, are available for distance-matrix based analysis of large bacterial collections. Deployed as part of the Public Health England solution for M. tuberculosis genomic processing, they will have wide applicability.

A curated dataset of complete Enterobacteriaceae plasmids compiled from the NCBI nucleotide database

Thousands of plasmid sequences are now publicly available in the NCBI nucleotide database, but they are not reliably annotated to distinguish complete plasmids from plasmid fragments, such as gene or contig sequences; therefore, retrieving complete plasmids for downstream analyses is challenging. Here we present a curated dataset of complete bacterial plasmids from the clinically relevant Enterobacteriaceae family. The dataset was compiled from the NCBI nucleotide database using curation steps designed to exclude incomplete plasmid sequences, and chromosomal sequences misannotated as plasmids. Over 2000 complete plasmid sequences are included in the curated plasmid dataset. Protein sequences produced from translating each complete plasmid nucleotide sequence in all 6 frames are also provided. Further analysis and discussion of the dataset is presented in an accompanying research article: "Ordering the mob: insights into replicon and MOB typing…" (Orlek et al., 2017) [1]. The curated plasmid sequences are publicly available in the Figshare repository.

Ordering the mob: Insights into replicon and MOB typing schemes from analysis of a curated dataset of publicly available plasmids

Plasmid typing can provide insights into the epidemiology and transmission of plasmid-mediated antibiotic resistance. The principal plasmid typing schemes are replicon typing and MOB typing, which utilize variation in replication loci and relaxase proteins respectively. Previous studies investigating the proportion of plasmids assigned a type by these schemes (‘typeability’) have yielded conflicting results; moreover, thousands of plasmid sequences have been added to NCBI in recent years, without consistent annotation to indicate which sequences represent complete plasmids. Here, a curated dataset of complete Enterobacteriaceae plasmids from NCBI was compiled, and used to assess the typeability and concordance of in silico replicon and MOB typing schemes. Concordance was assessed at hierarchical replicon type resolutions, from replicon family-level to plasmid multilocus sequence type (pMLST)-level, where available. We found that 85% and 65% of the curated plasmids could be replicon and MOB typed, respectively. Overall, plasmid size and the number of resistance genes were significant independent predictors of replicon and MOB typing success. We found some degree of non-concordance between replicon families and MOB types, which was only partly resolved when partitioning plasmids into finer-resolution groups (replicon and pMLST types). In some cases, non-concordance was attributed to ambiguous boundaries between MOBP and MOBQ types; in other cases, backbone mosaicism was considered a more plausible explanation. β-lactamase resistance genes tended not to show fidelity to a particular plasmid type, though some previously reported associations were supported. Overall, replicon and MOB typing schemes are likely to continue playing an important role in plasmid analysis, but their performance is constrained by the diverse and dynamic nature of plasmid genomes.

•

92% of clinically-relevant plasmids could be replicon typed, compared with reports of 100% typeability in 2014.

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Replicon and MOB typing were partly concordant; partitioning plasmids into finer-resolution groups increased concordance.

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Overlap between MOBP and MOBQ relaxase families complicates assignment of MOBP and MOBQ types.

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Generally, resistance genes showed low fidelity towards particular plasmid backbones.

•

PacBio sequencing has driven increased availability of complete plasmid sequences, but retrieved datasets require curation.

Increased mortality in a Danish cohort of young people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus followed for 24 years

AIM

To determine the mortality rate in a Danish cohort of children and adolescents diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes mellitus compared with the general population.

METHODS

In 1987 and 1989 we included 884 children and 1020 adolescents aged 20 years and under, corresponding to 75% of all Danish children and adolescents with Type 1 diabetes, in two nationwide studies in Denmark. Those who had participated in both investigations (n = 720) were followed until 1 January 2014, using the Danish Civil Registration System on death certificates and emigration. We derived the expected number of deaths in the cohort, using population data values from Statistics Denmark to calculate the standardized mortality ratio. Survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

During the 24 years of follow-up, 49 (6.8%) patients died, resulting in a standardized mortality ratio of 4.8 (95% confidence interval 3.5, 6.2) compared with the age-standardized general population. A 1% increase in baseline HbA_1c (1989), available in 718 of 720 patients, was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.38; 95% confidence interval 1.2, 1.6; P < 0.0001). Type 1 diabetes with multiple complications was the most common reported cause of death (36.7%).

CONCLUSION

We found an increased mortality rate in this cohort of children and adolescents with Type 1 diabetes compared with the general population. The only predictor for increased risk of death up to 24 years after inclusion was the HbA_1c level in 1989. This emphasizes the importance of achieving optimal metabolic control in young people with Type 1 diabetes.

Plasmid Classification in an Era of Whole-Genome Sequencing: Application in Studies of Antibiotic Resistance Epidemiology

Plasmids are extra-chromosomal genetic elements ubiquitous in bacteria, and commonly transmissible between host cells. Their genomes include variable repertoires of 'accessory genes,' such as antibiotic resistance genes, as well as 'backbone' loci which are largely conserved within plasmid families, and often involved in key plasmid-specific functions (e.g., replication, stable inheritance, mobility). Classifying plasmids into different types according to their phylogenetic relatedness provides insight into the epidemiology of plasmid-mediated antibiotic resistance. Current typing schemes exploit backbone loci associated with replication (replicon typing), or plasmid mobility (MOB typing). Conventional PCR-based methods for plasmid typing remain widely used. With the emergence of whole-genome sequencing (WGS), large datasets can be analyzed using in silico plasmid typing methods. However, short reads from popular high-throughput sequencers can be challenging to assemble, so complete plasmid sequences may not be accurately reconstructed. Therefore, localizing resistance genes to specific plasmids may be difficult, limiting epidemiological insight. Long-read sequencing will become increasingly popular as costs decline, especially when resolving accurate plasmid structures is the primary goal. This review discusses the application of plasmid classification in WGS-based studies of antibiotic resistance epidemiology; novel in silico plasmid analysis tools are highlighted. Due to the diverse and plastic nature of plasmid genomes, current typing schemes do not classify all plasmids, and identifying conserved, phylogenetically concordant genes for subtyping and phylogenetics is challenging. Analyzing plasmids as nodes in a network that represents gene-sharing relationships between plasmids provides a complementary way to assess plasmid diversity, and allows inferences about horizontal gene transfer to be made.

The role of whole genome sequencing in antimicrobial susceptibility testing of bacteria: report from the EUCAST Subcommittee

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) offers the potential to predict antimicrobial susceptibility from a single assay. The European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing established a subcommittee to review the current development status of WGS for bacterial antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST). The published evidence for using WGS as a tool to infer antimicrobial susceptibility accurately is currently either poor or non-existent and the evidence / knowledge base requires significant expansion. The primary comparators for assessing genotypic-phenotypic concordance from WGS data should be changed to epidemiological cut-off values in order to improve differentiation of wild-type from non-wild-type isolates (harbouring an acquired resistance). Clinical breakpoints should be a secondary comparator. This assessment will reveal whether genetic predictions could also be used to guide clinical decision making. Internationally agreed principles and quality control (QC) metrics will facilitate early harmonization of analytical approaches and interpretive criteria for WGS-based predictive AST. Only data sets that pass agreed QC metrics should be used in AST predictions. Minimum performance standards should exist and comparative accuracies across different WGS laboratories and processes should be measured. To facilitate comparisons, a single public database of all known resistance loci should be established, regularly updated and strictly curated using minimum standards for the inclusion of resistance loci. For most bacterial species the major limitations to widespread adoption for WGS-based AST in clinical laboratories remain the current high-cost and limited speed of inferring antimicrobial susceptibility from WGS data as well as the dependency on previous culture because analysis directly on specimens remains challenging. For most bacterial species there is currently insufficient evidence to support the use of WGS-inferred AST to guide clinical decision making. WGS-AST should be a funding priority if it is to become a rival to phenotypic AST. This report will be updated as the available evidence increases.

Cost-effectiveness of community versus hospital eye service follow-up for patients with quiescent treated age-related macular degeneration alongside the ECHoES randomised trial

OBJECTIVES

To assess the cost-effectiveness of optometrist-led follow-up monitoring reviews for patients with quiescent neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) in community settings (including high street opticians) compared with ophthalmologist-led reviews in hospitals.

DESIGN

A model-based cost-effectiveness analysis with a 4-week time horizon, based on a 'virtual' non-inferiority randomised trial designed to emulate a parallel group design.

SETTING

A virtual internet-based clinical assessment, conducted at community optometry practices, and hospital ophthalmology clinics.

PARTICIPANTS

Ophthalmologists with experience in the age-related macular degeneration service; fully qualified optometrists not participating in nAMD shared care schemes.

INTERVENTIONS

The participating optometrists and ophthalmologists classified lesions from vignettes and were asked to judge whether any retreatment was required. Vignettes comprised clinical information, colour fundus photographs and optical coherence tomography images. Participants' classifications were validated against experts' classifications (reference standard). Resource use and cost information were attributed to these retreatment decisions.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Correct classification of whether further treatment is needed, compared with a reference standard.

RESULTS

The mean cost per assessment, including the subsequent care pathway, was £411 for optometrists and £397 for ophthalmologists: a cost difference of £13 (95% CI -£18 to £45). Optometrists were non-inferior to ophthalmologists with respect to the overall percentage of lesions correctly assessed (difference -1.0%; 95% CI -4.5% to 2.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

In the base case analysis, the slightly larger number of incorrect retreatment decisions by optometrists led to marginally and non-significantly higher costs. Sensitivity analyses that reflected different practices across eye hospitals indicate that shared care pathways between optometrists and ophthalmologists can be identified which may reduce demands on scant hospital resources, although in light of the uncertainty around differences in outcome and cost it remains unclear whether the differences between the 2 care pathways are significant in economic terms.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN07479761; Pre-results.

Antibiotic use and clinical outcomes in the acute setting under management by an infectious diseases acute physician versus other clinical teams: a cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the magnitude of difference in antibiotic use between clinical teams in the acute setting and assess evidence for any adverse consequences to patient safety or healthcare delivery.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study (1 week) and analysis of linked electronic health records (3 years).

SETTING

UK tertiary care centre.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients admitted sequentially to the acute medical service under an infectious diseases acute physician (IDP) and other medical teams during 1 week in 2013 (n=297), and 3 years 2012-2014 (n=47 585).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Antibiotic use in days of therapy (DOT): raw group metrics and regression analysis adjusted for case mix.

SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

30-day all-cause mortality, treatment failure and length of stay.

RESULTS

Antibiotic use was 173 vs 282 DOT/100 admissions in the IDP versus non-IDP group. Using case mix-adjusted zero-inflated Poisson regression, IDP patients were significantly less likely to receive an antibiotic (adjusted OR=0.25 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.84), p=0.03) and received shorter courses (adjusted rate ratio (RR)=0.71 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.93), p=0.01). Clinically stable IDP patients of uncertain diagnosis were more likely to have antibiotics held (87% vs 55%; p=0.02). There was no significant difference in treatment failure or mortality (adjusted p>0.5; also in the 3-year data set), but IDP patients were more likely to be admitted overnight (adjusted OR=3.53 (95% CI 1.24 to 10.03), p=0.03) and have longer length of stay (adjusted RR=1.19 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.36), p=0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

The IDP-led group used 30% less antibiotic therapy with no adverse clinical outcome, suggesting antibiotic use can be reduced safely in the acute setting. This may be achieved in part by holding antibiotics and admitting the patient for observation rather than prescribing, which has implications for costs and hospital occupancy. More information is needed to indicate whether any such longer admission will increase or decrease risk of antibiotic-resistant infections.

Retinal vascular geometry and its association to microvascular complications in patients with type 1 diabetes: the Danish Cohort of Pediatric Diabetes 1987 (DCPD1987)

PURPOSE

To examine associations between retinal vascular geometry (tortuosity, branching coefficient [BC] and length-diameter ratio [LDR]) and diabetic proliferative retinopathy (PDR), nephropathy, and peripheral neuropathy in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM).

METHODS

A cohort of patients with T1DM participated in a clinical examination in 2011. Blood and urine analyses were done and retinal images taken. PDR was defined as Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study level 61 or above, nephropathy as albumin-creatinin ratio ≥300 mg/g, and neuropathy as vibration perception threshold >25 Volt. Retinal vessel parameters were measured using semi-automated software. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to investigate correlations between retinal vascular parameters and outcomes. Models were adjusted for other variables (sex, age, duration of diabetes, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, HbA1c, and presence of microvascular complications). Odds ratios were given per standard deviation in retinal vascular parameter.

RESULTS

Retinal vascular analyses were performed in 181 patients. Mean age and duration of diabetes were 37.0 years and 29.4 years respectively, and 50.8% were male. Prevalence of PDR, nephropathy, and neuropathy were 26.5%, 6.8%, and 10.1% , respectively. Patients with increased arteriolar BC had a higher risk of nephropathy (OR: 3.10, 95% CI: [1.01-9.54]). Patients with increased venular BC had a higher risk of neuropathy (OR: 2.11, 95% CI: [1.11-4.03]). No associations were found in patients with PDR.

CONCLUSIONS

By analyzing the retinal vascular tree in patients with T1DM, we found a higher risk of complications in kidneys and nerves when BC was increased. This might indicate a suboptimal construction of the vascular tree in these patients.

Comparing the Effectiveness of Bevacizumab to Ranibizumab in Patients with Exudative Age-Related Macular Degeneration. The BRAMD Study

Purpose

To compare the effectiveness of bevacizumab and ranibizumab in the treatment of exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

Design

Multicentre, randomized, controlled, double-masked clinical trial in 327 patients. The non-inferiority margin was 4 letters.

Patients

Patients ≥ 60 years of age with primary or recurrent sub- or juxtafoveal choroidal neovascularization (CNV) secondary to AMD with a total area of CNV < 12 disc areas and a best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) score between 20 and 78 letters on an EDTRS like chart in the study eye.

Methods

Monthly intravitreal injections with 1.25 mg bevacizumab or 0.5 mg ranibizumab were given during one year. Intention to treat with last observation carried forward analysis was performed.

Main Outcome Measures

Primary outcome was the change in BCVA in the study eye from baseline to 12 months.

Results

The mean gain in BCVA was 5.1 (±14.1) letters in the bevacizumab group (n = 161) and 6.4 (±12.2) letters in the ranibizumab group (n = 166) (p = 0.37). The lower limit of the 95% confidence interval of the difference in BCVA gain was 3.72. The response to bevacizumab was more varied; 24% of patients showed a gain of ≥15 letters, 11% a loss of ≥15 letters and 65% a gain or loss < 15 letters compared to 19%, 5% and 76% respectively for ranibizumab (p = 0.038). No significant differences in absolute CRT and CRT change (p = 0.13) or in the presence of subretinal or intraretinal fluid (p = 0.14 and 0.10, respectively) were observed. However, the presence of any fluid on SD-OCT (subretinal and/or intraretinal) differed significantly (p = 0.020), with definite fluid on SD-OCT in 45% of the patients for bevacizumab versus 31% for ranibizumab. The occurrence of serious adverse events and adverse events was similar, with 34 SAEs and 256 AEs in the bevacizumab group and 37 SAEs and 299 AEs in the ranibizumab group (p = 0.87 and p = 0.48, respectively).

Conclusions

Bevacizumab was not inferior to ranibizumab. The response to bevacizumab was more varied with higher percentages of both gainers and losers and more frequently observed retinal fluid on SD-OCT at 12 months when compared to the ranibizumab group.

Trial Registration

Trialregister.nl NTR1704

Prevalence and risk factors of retinal vein occlusion: the Gutenberg Health Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the age- and sex-specific prevalence and determinants of retinal vein occlusions (RVOs) in a large population-based German cohort.

METHODS

The investigation included 15,010 participants (aged 35-74 years) from the Gutenberg Health Study. We determined the prevalence of RVO (central retinal vein occlusion [CRVO] and branch retinal vein occlusion [BRVO]) for the local population by assessing fundus photographs of 12 954 (86.3%; 49.8% women and 50.2% men) participants. Further, we analyzed the associations of RVO with cardiovascular, anthropometric, and ophthalmic parameters.

RESULTS

The weighted prevalences of RVO, CRVO, and BRVO were 0.40%, 0.08%, and 0.32%, respectively. Men were 1.7 times more frequently affected by RVO than were women. Prevalence of RVO was 0.2% in participants aged 35-44 and 45-54 years, respectively, 0.48% in those aged 55-64 years, and 0.92% in those aged 65-74 years. Of persons with RVO, 91.5% had one or more cardiovascular risk factor or disease vs. 75.9% of persons without RVO. BRVO was associated with arterial hypertension (odds ratio 2.69, 95% confidence interval 1.27-5.70) and atrial fibrillation (3.37, 1.24-9.12) and CRVO with higher age (7.02, 1.63-30.19) and a family history of stroke (4.64, 1.18-18.25). Median visual acuity (base 10 logarithm of minimum angle of resolution) was 0.2 in persons with RVO vs. 0.05 in those without.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of RVO in this German population was 0.4%, and men were 1.7 times more frequently affected than women. CRVO was associated with higher age and a family history of stroke, and BRVO was associated with arterial hypertension and atrial fibrillation.

Long-term incidence of vitrectomy and associated risk factors in young Danish patients with Type 1 diabetes: the Danish Cohort of Paediatric Diabetes 1987

AIMS

To examine the long-term incidence of vitrectomy in young people with Type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

We prospectively studied 324 people with Type 1 diabetes who participated in baseline examinations in 1995. Surgical history was obtained from the Danish National Patient Registry in April 2012.

RESULTS

During the 17-year study period, 39 people (12.0%) underwent vitrectomy at least once. The mean age and diabetes duration at first vitrectomy were 29.8 and 22.9 years, respectively, and 64.1% of the participants were men. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, baseline age (hazard ratio 0.81 per 1 year increase), BMI (hazard ratio 1.21 per 1 kg/m(2) increase), HbA1c (hazard ratio 1.72 per 1% increase) and diabetic retinopathy (hazard ratio 2.85 and 6.07 for mild and moderate/severe diabetic retinopathy vs none, respectively) were independent predictors of vitrectomy (P < 0.05 for all variables).

CONCLUSIONS

Vitrectomy is a relatively common procedure in young people with Type 1 diabetes, with poor glycaemic control being the strongest modifiable risk factor.

Cognitive function, drusen, and age-related macular degeneration: a cross-sectional study

PURPOSE

To examine the cross-sectional relationship between drusen, late age-related macular degeneration (AMD), and cognitive function. METHODS; We included 2149 stroke-free participants from the population-based Tromsø Study in Norway. Retinal photographs were graded for presence of drusen and AMD. Cognitive function was assessed using the verbal memory test (short verbal memory), digit-symbol coding test (processing speed), and the tapping test (psychomotor tempo). We assessed the relationship between drusen, late AMD, and cognitive test scores, adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Late AMD was associated with decreased performance in the verbal memory test (standardized β=-0.23, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.51 to -0.01). Intermediate and large drusen were associated with decreased performance in the digit-symbol coding test (standardized β=-0.14 and -0.19, 95% CIs: -0.23 to -0.05 and -0.29 to -0.09, respectively). Participants with large drusen were more likely to have test scores in the lowest quartile of the digit-symbol coding test (odds ratio (OR)=1.9, 95% CI: 1.1-3.5) and the tapping test (OR=1.6, 95% CI: 1.0-2.6), but not in the verbal memory test (OR=1.0, 95% CI: 0.6-1.6).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest a relationship between drusen deposition and reduced cognitive function. Although the relationships between drusen, late AMD, and the cognitive test results varied in strength and significance across the types of cognitive test, and may partly have been caused by residual confounding, it is not unlikely that a genuine but weaker relationship exists between drusen deposition and cognitive decline.

Diabetic retinopathy: pathogenesis, clinical grading, management and future developments

Decades of research into the pathophysiology and management of diabetic retinopathy have revolutionized our understanding of the disease process. Diabetic retinopathy is now more accurately defined as a neurovascular rather than a microvascular disease as neurodegenerative disease precedes and coexists with microvascular changes. However, the complexities of the pathways involved in different stages of disease severity continue to remain a challenging issue for drug discovery. Currently, laser photocoagulation is the mainstay of treatment for proliferative diabetic retinopathy, but is gradually being superseded for diabetic macular oedema. However, it is destructive and at best results in a gradual but modest improvement in vision in the long term. So, diabetic retinopathy remains the most prevalent cause of visual impairment in the working-age population despite established screening programmes, early diagnosis and treatment of the condition. The recent discovery of inhibitors of vascular endothelial growth factor is revolutionizing the management of diabetic retinopathy, particularly diabetic macular oedema. However, not all patients respond to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents, reinforcing the fact that diabetic retinopathy is a multifactorial disease. Studies are still required to improve our understanding of how retinal structure correlates with visual function. It is hoped that these will lead to better characterization of the disease phenotype based on treatment responses to different agents and allow an algorithm to be developed that will guide the management of diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular oedema at different stages of severity.

When enough is enough: how the decision was made to stop the FEAST trial: data and safety monitoring in an African trial of Fluid Expansion As Supportive Therapy (FEAST) for critically ill children

In resource-rich countries, bolus fluid expansion is routinely used for the treatment of poor perfusion and shock, but is less commonly used in many African settings. Controversial results from the recently completed FEAST (Fluid Expansion As Supportive Therapy) trial in African children have raised questions about the use of intravenous bolus fluid for the treatment of shock. Prior to the start of the trial, the Independent data monitoring committee (IDMC) developed stopping rules for the proof of benefit that bolus fluid resuscitation would bring. Although careful safety monitoring was put in place, there was less expectation that bolus fluid expansion would be harmful and differential stopping rules for harm were not formulated.In July 2010, two protocol amendments were agreed to increase the sample size from 2,880 to 3,600 children, and to increase bolus fluid administration. There was a non-significant trend against bolus treatment, but although the implications were discussed, the IDMC did not comment on the results, or on the amendments, in order to avoid inadvertent partial unblinding of the study.In January 2011, the trial was stopped for futility, as the combined intervention arms had significantly higher mortality (relative risk 1.46, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.90, P = 0.004) than the control arm. The stopping rule for proof of benefit was not achieved, and the IDMC stopped the trial with a lower level of significance (P = 0.01) due to futility and an increased risk of mortality from bolus fluid expansion in children enrolled in the trial. The basis for this decision was that the local standard of care was not to use bolus fluid for the care of children with shock in these African countries, and this was a different standard of care to that used in the UK. These decisions emphasize two important principles: firstly, the IDMC should avoid inadvertent unblinding of the trial by commenting on amendments, and secondly, when considering stopping a trial, the IDMC should be guided by the local standard of care rather than standards of care in other parts of the world.

Verteporfin photodynamic therapy for neovascular age-related macular degeneration: cohort study for the UK

OBJECTIVES

The verteporfin photodynamic therapy (VPDT) cohort study aimed to answer five questions: (a) is VPDT in the NHS provided as in randomised trials?; (b) is 'outcome' the same in the nhs as in randomised trials?; (c) is 'outcome' the same for patients ineligible for randomised trials?; (d) is VPDT safe when provided in the NHS?; and (e) how effective and cost-effective is VPDT?

DESIGN

Treatment register.

SETTING

All hospitals providing VPDT in the NHS.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients attending VPDT clinics.

INTERVENTIONS

Infusion of verteporfin followed by infrared laser exposure is called VPDT, and is used to treat neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD). The VPDT cohort study advised clinicians to follow patients every 3 months during treatment or active observation, retreating based on criteria used in the previous commercial 'TAP' (Treatment of Age-related macular degeneration with Photodynamic therapy) trials of VPDT.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution monocular best-corrected distance visual acuity (BCVA). Secondary outcomes were adverse reactions and events; morphological changes in treated nAMD (wet) lesions; and for a subset of patients, 6-monthly contrast sensitivity, generic and visual health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and resource use. Treated eyes were classified as eligible for the TAP trials (EFT), ineligible (IFT) or unclassifiable (UNC).

RESULTS

Forty-seven hospitals submitted data for 8323 treated eyes in 7748 patients; 4919 eyes in 4566 patients were treated more than 1 year before the last data submission or had completed treatment. Of 4043 eyes with nAMD in 4043 patients, 1227 were classified as EFT, 1187 as IFT and 1629 as UNC. HRQoL and resource use data were available for about 2000 patients. The mean number of treatments in years 1 and 2 was 2.3 and 0.4 respectively. About 50% of eyes completed treatment within 1 year. BCVA deterioration in year 1 did not differ between eligibility groups. EFT eyes lost 11.6 letters (95% confidence interval 10.1 to 13.0 letters) compared with 9.9 letters in VPDT-treated eyes in the TAP trials. EFT eyes had poorer BCVA at baseline than IFT and UNC eyes. Adverse reactions and events were reported for 1.4% of first visits - less frequently than those reported in the TAP trials. Associations between BCVA in the best-seeing eye with HRQoL and community health and social care resource use showed that the 11-letter difference in BCVA between VPDT and sham treatment in the TAP trials corresponded to differences in utility of 0.012 and health and social service costs of £60 and £92 in years 1 and 2, respectively. VPDT provided an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of £170,000 over 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

VPDT was administered less frequently than in the TAP trials, with less than half of those treated followed up for > 1 year in routine clinical practice. Deterioration in BCVA over time in EFT eyes was similar to that in the TAP trials. The similar falls in BCVA after VPDT across the pre-defined TAP eligibility groups do not mean that the treatment is equally effective in these groups because deterioration in BCVA can be influenced by the parameters that determined group membership. Safety was no worse than in the TAP trials. The estimated cost per QALY was similar to the highest previous estimate. Although VPDT is no longer in use as monotherapy for neovascular AMD, its role as adjunctive treatment has not been fully explored. VPDT also has potential as monotherapy in the management of vascular malformations of the retina and choroid and with trials underway in neovascularisation due to myopia and polypoidal choroidopathy.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Routine versus clinically driven laboratory monitoring of HIV antiretroviral therapy in Africa (DART): a randomised non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) is often managed without routine laboratory monitoring in Africa; however, the effect of this approach is unknown. This trial investigated whether routine toxicity and efficacy monitoring of HIV-infected patients receiving ART had an important long-term effect on clinical outcomes in Africa.

METHODS

In this open, non-inferiority trial in three centres in Uganda and one in Zimbabwe, 3321 symptomatic, ART-naive, HIV-infected adults with CD4 counts less than 200 cells per microL starting ART were randomly assigned to laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM; n=1659) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM; n=1662) by a computer-generated list. Haematology, biochemistry, and CD4-cell counts were done every 12 weeks. In the LCM group, results were available to clinicians; in the CDM group, results (apart from CD4-cell count) could be requested if clinically indicated and grade 4 toxicities were available. Participants switched to second-line ART after new or recurrent WHO stage 4 events in both groups, or CD4 count less than 100 cells per microL (LCM only). Co-primary endpoints were new WHO stage 4 HIV events or death, and serious adverse events. Non-inferiority was defined as the upper 95% confidence limit for the hazard ratio (HR) for new WHO stage 4 events or death being no greater than 1.18. Analyses were by intention to treat. This study is registered, number ISRCTN13968779.

FINDINGS

Two participants assigned to CDM and three to LCM were excluded from analyses. 5-year survival was 87% (95% CI 85-88) in the CDM group and 90% (88-91) in the LCM group, and 122 (7%) and 112 (7%) participants, respectively, were lost to follow-up over median 4.9 years' follow-up. 459 (28%) participants receiving CDM versus 356 (21%) LCM had a new WHO stage 4 event or died (6.94 [95% CI 6.33-7.60] vs 5.24 [4.72-5.81] per 100 person-years; absolute difference 1.70 per 100 person-years [0.87-2.54]; HR 1.31 [1.14-1.51]; p=0.0001). Differences in disease progression occurred from the third year on ART, whereas higher rates of switch to second-line treatment occurred in LCM from the second year. 283 (17%) participants receiving CDM versus 260 (16%) LCM had a new serious adverse event (HR 1.12 [0.94-1.32]; p=0.19), with anaemia the most common (76 vs 61 cases).

INTERPRETATION

ART can be delivered safely without routine laboratory monitoring for toxic effects, but differences in disease progression suggest a role for monitoring of CD4-cell count from the second year of ART to guide the switch to second-line treatment.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, the Rockefeller Foundation, GlaxoSmithKline, Gilead Sciences, Boehringer-Ingelheim, and Abbott Laboratories.

Testing for HIV: concise guidance

HIV is now a treatable medical condition and the majority of those living with the virus remain fit and well on treatment. Despite this a significant number of people in the UK are unaware of their HIV infection and remain at risk to their own health and of passing their virus unwittingly on to others. Late diagnosis is the most important factor associated with HIV-related morbidity and mortality in the U.K. Testing for HIV infection is often not performed due to misconceptions held by healthcare workers even when it is clinically indicated and this contributes to missed or late diagnosis. This article summarises the recommendations from the U.K. national guidelines for HIV testing 2008. The guidelines provide the information needed to enable any clinician to perform an HIV test within good clinical practice and encourage 'normalisation' of HIV testing. The full version is available at www.bhiva.org/cmsl 222621.asp.