Introduction and expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reinfections in Qatar: A nationally representative cohort study

Estimating protection afforded by prior infection in preventing reinfection: applying the test-negative study design

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to use infection testing databases to rapidly estimate effectiveness of prior infection in preventing reinfection ($P{E}_S$) by novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. Mathematical modeling was used to demonstrate a theoretical foundation for applicability of the test-negative, case-control study design to derive $P{E}_S$. Apart from the very early phase of an epidemic, the difference between the test-negative estimate for $P{E}_S$ and true value of $P{E}_S$ was minimal and became negligible as the epidemic progressed. The test-negative design provided robust estimation of $P{E}_S$ and its waning. Assuming that only 25% of prior infections are documented, misclassification of prior infection status underestimated $P{E}_S$, but the underestimate was considerable only when > 50% of the population was ever infected. Misclassification of latent infection, misclassification of current active infection, and scale-up of vaccination all resulted in negligible bias in estimated $P{E}_S$. The test-negative design was applied to national-level testing data in Qatar to estimate $P{E}_S$ for SARS-CoV-2. $P{E}_S$ against SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Beta variants was estimated at 97.0% (95% CI, 93.6-98.6) and 85.5% (95% CI, 82.4-88.1), respectively. These estimates were validated using a cohort study design. The test-negative design offers a feasible, robust method to estimate protection from prior infection in preventing reinfection.

Effectiveness of two and three doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against infection, symptoms, and severity in the pre-omicron era: A time-dependent gradient

BACKGROUND

Vaccines were developed and deployed to combat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. This study aimed to characterize patterns in the protection provided by the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 mRNA vaccines against a spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection symptoms and severities.

METHODS

A national, matched, test-negative, case-control study was conducted in Qatar between January 1 and December 18, 2021, utilizing a sample of 238,896 PCR-positive tests and 6,533,739 PCR-negative tests. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated against asymptomatic, symptomatic, severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), critical COVID-19, and fatal COVID-19 infections. Data sources included Qatar's national databases for COVID-19 laboratory testing, vaccination, hospitalization, and death.

RESULTS

Effectiveness of two-dose BNT162b2 vaccination was 75.6% (95% CI: 73.6-77.5) against asymptomatic infection and 76.5% (95% CI: 75.1-77.9) against symptomatic infection. Effectiveness against each of severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19 infections surpassed 90%. Immediately after the second dose, all categories-namely, asymptomatic, symptomatic, severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19-exhibited similarly high effectiveness. However, from 181 to 270 days post-second dose, effectiveness against asymptomatic and symptomatic infections declined to below 40%, while effectiveness against each of severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19 infections remained consistently high. However, estimates against fatal COVID-19 often had wide 95% confidence intervals. Analogous patterns were observed in three-dose BNT162b2 vaccination and two- and three-dose mRNA-1273 vaccination. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the results.

CONCLUSION

A gradient in vaccine effectiveness exists and is linked to the symptoms and severity of infection, providing higher protection against more symptomatic and severe cases. This gradient intensifies over time as vaccine immunity wanes after the last vaccine dose. These patterns appear consistent irrespective of the vaccine type or whether the vaccination involves the primary series or a booster.

Addressing bias in the definition of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection: implications for underestimation

Introduction

Reinfections are increasingly becoming a feature in the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. However, accurately defining reinfection poses methodological challenges. Conventionally, reinfection is defined as a positive test occurring at least 90 days after a previous infection diagnosis. Yet, this extended time window may lead to an underestimation of reinfection occurrences. This study investigated the prospect of adopting an alternative, shorter time window for defining reinfection.

Methods

A longitudinal study was conducted to assess the incidence of reinfections in the total population of Qatar, from February 28, 2020 to November 20, 2023. The assessment considered a range of time windows for defining reinfection, spanning from 1 day to 180 days. Subgroup analyses comparing first versus repeat reinfections and a sensitivity analysis, focusing exclusively on individuals who underwent frequent testing, were performed.

Results

The relationship between the number of reinfections in the population and the duration of the time window used to define reinfection revealed two distinct dynamical domains. Within the initial 15 days post-infection diagnosis, almost all positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 were attributed to the original infection. However, surpassing the 30-day post-infection threshold, nearly all positive tests were attributed to reinfections. A 40-day time window emerged as a sufficiently conservative definition for reinfection. By setting the time window at 40 days, the estimated number of reinfections in the population increased from 84,565 to 88,384, compared to the 90-day time window. The maximum observed reinfections were 6 and 4 for the 40-day and 90-day time windows, respectively. The 40-day time window was appropriate for defining reinfection, irrespective of whether it was the first, second, third, or fourth occurrence. The sensitivity analysis, confined to high testers exclusively, replicated similar patterns and results.

Discussion

A 40-day time window is optimal for defining reinfection, providing an informed alternative to the conventional 90-day time window. Reinfections are prevalent, with some individuals experiencing multiple instances since the onset of the pandemic.

Clinical and laboratory considerations: determining an antibody-based composite correlate of risk for reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 or severe COVID-19

Much of the global population now has some level of adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 induced by exposure to the virus (natural infection), vaccination, or a combination of both (hybrid immunity). Key questions that subsequently arise relate to the duration and the level of protection an individual might expect based on their infection and vaccination history. A multi-component composite correlate of risk (CoR) could inform individuals and stakeholders about protection and aid decision making. This perspective evaluates the various elements that need to be accommodated in the development of an antibody-based composite CoR for reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 or development of severe COVID-19, including variation in exposure dose, transmission route, viral genetic variation, patient factors, and vaccination status. We provide an overview of antibody dynamics to aid exploration of the specifics of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. We further discuss anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays, sample matrices, testing formats, frequency of sampling and the optimal time point for such sampling. While the development of a composite CoR is challenging, we provide our recommendations for each of these key areas and highlight areas that require further work to be undertaken.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and effects of age, sex, comorbidity, and vaccination among older individuals: A national cohort study

BACKGROUND

We investigated the contribution of age, coexisting medical conditions, sex, and vaccination to incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 in older adults since pandemic onset.

METHODS

A national retrospective cohort study was conducted in the population of Qatar aged ≥50 years between February 5, 2020 and June 15, 2023. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) for infection and for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes were estimated through Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Cumulative incidence was 25.01% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24.86-25.15%) for infection and 1.59% (95% CI: 1.55-1.64%) for severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 after a follow-up duration of 40.9 months. Risk of infection varied minimally by age and sex but increased significantly with coexisting conditions. Risk of infection was reduced with primary-series vaccination (AHR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.90-0.93) and further with first booster vaccination (AHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74-0.77). Risk of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 increased exponentially with age and linearly with coexisting conditions. AHRs for severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were 0.86 (95% CI: 0.7-0.97) for one dose, 0.15 (95% CI: 0.13-0.17) for primary-series vaccination, and 0.11 (95% CI: 0.08-0.14) for first booster vaccination. Sensitivity analysis restricted to only Qataris yielded similar results.

CONCLUSION

Incidence of severe COVID-19 in older adults followed a dynamic pattern shaped by infection incidence, variant severity, and population immunity. Age, sex, and coexisting conditions were strong determinants of infection severity. Vaccine protection against severe outcomes showed a dose-response relationship, highlighting the importance of booster vaccination for older adults.

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in children and adolescents with COVID-19: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Infections by SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) might affect children and adolescents differently than earlier viral lineages. We aimed to address five questions about SARS-CoV-2 VOC infections in children and adolescents: (1) symptoms and severity, (2) risk factors for severe disease, (3) the risk of infection, (4) the risk of transmission and (5) long-term consequences following a VOC infection.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

The COVID-19 Open Access Project database was searched up to 1 March 2022 and PubMed was searched up to 9 May 2022.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included observational studies about Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron VOCs among ≤18-year-olds. We included studies in English, German, French, Greek, Italian, Spanish and Turkish.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers extracted and verified the data and assessed the risk of bias. We descriptively synthesised the data and assessed the risks of bias at the outcome level.

RESULTS

We included 53 articles. Most children with any VOC infection presented with mild disease, with more severe disease being described with the Delta or the Gamma VOC. Diabetes and obesity were reported as risk factors for severe disease during the whole pandemic period. The risk of becoming infected with a SARS-CoV-2 VOC seemed to increase with age, while in daycare settings the risk of onward transmission of VOCs was higher for younger than older children or partially vaccinated adults. Long-term symptoms following an infection with a VOC were described in <5% of children and adolescents.

CONCLUSION

Overall patterns of SARS-CoV-2 VOC infections in children and adolescents are similar to those of earlier lineages. Comparisons between different pandemic periods, countries and age groups should be improved with complete reporting of relevant contextual factors, including VOCs, vaccination status of study participants and the risk of exposure of the population to SARS-CoV-2.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022295207.

Effects of previous infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity against symptomatic Alpha, Beta, and Delta SARS-CoV-2 infections: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Protection against SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 of previous infection, mRNA two-dose vaccination, mRNA three-dose vaccination, and hybrid immunity of previous infection and vaccination were investigated in Qatar for the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants.

METHODS

Six national, matched, test-negative, case-control studies were conducted between January 18 and December 18, 2021 on a sample of 239,120 PCR-positive tests and 6,103,365 PCR-negative tests.

FINDINGS

Effectiveness of previous infection against Alpha, Beta, and Delta reinfection was 89.5% (95% CI: 85.5-92.3%), 87.9% (95% CI: 85.4-89.9%), and 90.0% (95% CI: 86.7-92.5%), respectively. Effectiveness of two-dose BNT162b2 vaccination against Alpha, Beta, and Delta infection was 90.5% (95% CI, 83.9-94.4%), 80.5% (95% CI: 79.0-82.0%), and 58.1% (95% CI: 54.6-61.3%), respectively. Effectiveness of three-dose BNT162b2 vaccination against Delta infection was 91.7% (95% CI: 87.1-94.7%). Effectiveness of hybrid immunity of previous infection and two-dose BNT162b2 vaccination was 97.4% (95% CI: 95.4-98.5%) against Beta infection and 94.5% (95% CI: 92.8-95.8%) against Delta infection. Effectiveness of previous infection and three-dose BNT162b2 vaccination was 98.1% (95% CI: 85.7-99.7%) against Delta infection. All five forms of immunity had >90% protection against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 regardless of variant. Similar effectiveness estimates were observed for mRNA-1273. A mathematical model accurately predicted hybrid immunity protection by assuming that the individual effects of previous infection and vaccination acted independently.

INTERPRETATION

Hybrid immunity, offering the strongest protection, was mathematically predicted by assuming that the immunities obtained from previous infection and vaccination act independently, without synergy or redundancy.

FUNDING

The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114.

Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study

Background

Waning of natural infection protection and vaccine protection highlight the need to evaluate changes in population immunity over time. Population immunity of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19 vaccination are defined, respectively, as the overall protection against reinfection or against breakthrough infection at a given point in time in a given population.

Methods

We estimated these population immunities in Qatar's population between July 1, 2020 and November 30, 2022, to discern generic features of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Effectiveness of previous infection, mRNA primary-series vaccination, and mRNA booster (third-dose) vaccination in preventing infection were estimated, month by month, using matched, test-negative, case-control studies.

Findings

Previous-infection effectiveness against reinfection was strong before emergence of Omicron, but declined with time after a wave and rebounded after a new wave. Effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 88.3% (95% CI: 84.8-91.0%) in November 2021 to 51.0% (95% CI: 48.3-53.6%) in December 2021. Primary-series effectiveness against infection was 84.0% (95% CI: 83.0-85.0%) in April 2021, soon after introduction of vaccination, before waning gradually to 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5-58.2%) by November 2021. Effectiveness declined linearly by ∼1 percentage point every 5 days. After Omicron emergence, effectiveness dropped from 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5-58.2%) in November 2021 to negligible levels in December 2021. Booster effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 83.0% (95% CI: 65.6-91.6%) in November 2021 to 32.9% (95% CI: 26.7-38.5%) in December 2021, and continued to decline thereafter. Effectiveness of previous infection and vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were generally >80% throughout the study duration.

Interpretation

High population immunity against infection may not be sustained beyond a year, but population immunity against severe COVID-19 is durable with slow waning even after Omicron emergence.

Funding

The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114.

Enhancing the sensitivity of rapid antigen detection test (RADT) of different SARS-CoV-2 variants and lineages using fluorescence-labeled antibodies and a fluorescent meter

RT-qPCR is considered the gold standard for diagnosis of COVID-19; however, it is laborious, time-consuming, and expensive. RADTs have evolved recently as relatively inexpensive methods to address these shortcomings, but their performance for detecting different SARS-COV-2 variants remains limited. RADT test performance could be enhanced using different antibody labeling and signal detection techniques. Here, we aimed to evaluate the performance of two antigen RADTs for detecting different SARS-CoV-2 variants: (i) the conventional colorimetric RADT (Ab-conjugated with gold beads); and (ii) the new Finecare™ RADT (Ab-coated fluorescent beads). Finecare™ is a meter used for the detection of a fluorescent signal. 187 frozen nasopharyngeal swabs collected in Universal transport (UTM) that are RT-qPCR positive for different SARS-CoV-2 variants were selected, including Alpha (n = 60), Delta (n = 59), and Omicron variants (n = 108). Sixty flu and 60 RSV-positive samples were included as negative controls (total sample number = 347). The conventional RADT showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 62.4% (95%CI: 54-70), 100% (95%CI: 97-100), 100% (95%CI: 100-100), and 58% (95%CI: 49-67), respectively. These measurements were enhanced using the Finecare™ RADT: sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 92.6% (95%CI: 89.08-92.3), 96% (95%CI: 96-99.61), 98% (95%CI: 89-92.3), and 85% (95%CI: 96-99.6) respectively. The sensitivity of both RADTs could be greatly underestimated because nasopharyngeal swab samples collected UTM and stored at -80 °C were used. Despite that, our results indicate that the Finecare™ RADT is appropriate for clinical laboratory and community-based surveillance due to its high sensitivity and specificity.

COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy among Patients Recovered from COVID-19 Infection in Wuhan, China: A Cross-Sectional Questionnaire Study

BACKGROUND

Although patients recovered from COVID-19 infection already have immunity gained from natural infection, they are still at risk of reinfection due to the emergence of new variants of COVID-19 and the diminishing of naturally acquired immunity. COVID-19 vaccine is associated with efficacious protection against COVID-19 infection and could boost infection-acquired immunity, however, certain amounts of COVID-19 survivors have not been vaccinated due to vaccine hesitancy.

OBJECTIVE

The current study aimed to investigate COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and related factors among COVID-19 survivors.

METHODS

A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted among patients recovered from COVID-19 infection in Wuhan, China between June 10 and July 25, 2021. Questionnaire included sociodemographic information, items on COVID-19 infection, the COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy scale based on the 3Cs' model, trust in vaccine manufacturers and health facilities, and reasons for the decision to COVID-19 vaccination. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to assess the influenced factors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.

RESULTS

Among 1422 participants, 538 (37.8%) were not vaccinated against COVID-19. COVID-19 recovered patients who perceived current unhealthy status had more hesitancy about COVID-19 vaccine than those who perceived themselves healthy (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.28-0.71). Compared to the asymptomatic patients, patients with mild symptoms were more likely to receive COVID-19 vaccine (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.02-2.82). Regarding the 3Cs' model, high complacency and low convenience were significant negative factors for COVID-19 vaccination (P<.05). Trust in vaccine manufacturers and health facilities was a significant positive factor for COVID-19 vaccination (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.19). "Self-needs" was the main reason for patients to receive the COVID-19 vaccine; "already have antibodies and do not need vaccination" was the main reason for patients not to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the three major factors of vaccine hesitancy, complacency was proved the most notable one among COVID-19 recovered patients, educational campaigns can focus on raising the awareness of risk of infection and the benefits of vaccination to reduce complacency toward vaccination among them. For COVID-19 recovered patients, improving factors related to convenience such as transportation and environment of vaccination and proving door-to-door service were also necessary to facilitate their vaccination. In addition, addressing the concerns about vaccination of COVID-19 recovered patients could foster trust and promote their vaccination.

CLINICALTRIAL

All-cause and COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

To investigate all-cause mortality, COVID-19 mortality and all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A national, retrospective cohort analysis and national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted between 5 February 2020 and 19 September 2022.

RESULTS

There were 5025 deaths during a follow-up time of 5 247 220 person-years, of which 675 were COVID-19 related. Incidence rates were 0.96 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.98) per 1000 person-years for all-cause mortality, 0.13 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.14) per 1000 person-years for COVID-19 mortality and 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.85) per 1000 person-years for all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality. Adjusted HR, comparing all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 0.38 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.44), highest for Filipinos at 0.56 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.69) and was 0.51 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.58) for craft and manual workers (CMWs). Adjusted HR, comparing COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 1.54 (95% CI 0.97 to 2.44), highest for Nepalese at 5.34 (95% CI 1.56 to 18.34) and was 1.86 (95% CI 1.32 to 2.60) for CMWs. Incidence rate of all-cause mortality for each nationality group was lower than the crude death rate in the country of origin.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of non-COVID-19 death was low and was lowest among CMWs, perhaps reflecting the healthy worker effect. Risk of COVID-19 death was also low, but was highest among CMWs, largely reflecting higher exposure during first epidemic wave, before advent of effective COVID-19 treatments and vaccines.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers in Qatar

BACKGROUND

Some studies have reported that influenza vaccination is associated with lower risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and/or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity and mortality. This study aims to estimate effectiveness of influenza vaccination, using Abbott's quadrivalent Influvac Tetra vaccine, against SARS-CoV-2 infection and against severe COVID-19.

METHODS

This matched, test-negative, case-control study was implemented on a population of 30,774 healthcare workers (HCWs) in Qatar during the 2020 annual influenza vaccination campaign, September 17, 2020-December 31, 2020, before introduction of COVID-19 vaccination.

RESULTS

Of 30,774 HCWs, 576 with PCR-positive tests and 10,033 with exclusively PCR-negative tests were eligible for inclusion in the study. Matching by sex, age, nationality, reason for PCR testing, and PCR test date yielded 518 cases matched to 2058 controls. Median duration between influenza vaccination and the PCR test was 43 days (IQR, 29-62). Estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection> 14 days after receiving the vaccine was 29.7% (95% CI: 5.5-47.7%). Estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 was 88.9% (95% CI: 4.1-98.7%). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the main analysis results.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent influenza vaccination is associated with a significant reduction in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity.

Analysing transcriptomic signatures and identifying potential genes for the protective effect of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines

Inactivated vaccines are one of the most effective strategies for controlling the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the response genes for the protective effect of inactivated vaccines are still unclear. Herein, we analysed the neutralization antibody responses elicited by vaccine serum and carried out transcriptome sequencing of RNAs isolated from the PBMCs of 29 medical staff receiving two doses of the CoronaVac vaccine. The results showed that SARS-CoV-2 neutralization antibody titers varied considerably among individuals, and revealed that many innate immune pathways were activated after vaccination. Furthermore, the blue module revealed that NRAS, YWHAB, SMARCA5, PPP1CC and CDC5L may be correlated with the protective effect of the inactivated vaccine. Additionally, MAPK1, CDC42, PPP2CA, EP300, YWHAZ and NRAS were demonstrated as the hub genes having a significant association with vaccines. These findings provide a basis for understanding the molecular mechanism of the host immune response induced by inactivated vaccines.

Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection

BACKGROUND

The future of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic hinges on virus evolution and duration of immune protection of natural infection against reinfection. We investigated the duration of protection afforded by natural infection, the effect of viral immune evasion on duration of protection and protection against severe reinfection, in Qatar, between 28 February 2020 and 5 June 2022.

METHODS

Three national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted to compare the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity among unvaccinated persons with a documented SARS-CoV-2 primary infection, to incidence among those infection-naïve and unvaccinated. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression models.

RESULTS

Effectiveness of pre-Omicron primary infection against pre-Omicron reinfection was 85.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 84.8-86.2%]. Effectiveness peaked at 90.5% (95% CI: 88.4-92.3%) in the 7th month after the primary infection, but waned to ~ 70% by the 16th month. Extrapolating this waning trend using a Gompertz curve suggested an effectiveness of 50% in the 22nd month and < 10% by the 32nd month. Effectiveness of pre-Omicron primary infection against Omicron reinfection was 38.1% (95% CI: 36.3-39.8%) and declined with time since primary infection. A Gompertz curve suggested an effectiveness of < 10% by the 15th month. Effectiveness of primary infection against severe, critical or fatal COVID-19 reinfection was 97.3% (95% CI: 94.9-98.6%), irrespective of the variant of primary infection or reinfection, and with no evidence for waning. Similar results were found in sub-group analyses for those ≥50 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Protection of natural infection against reinfection wanes and may diminish within a few years. Viral immune evasion accelerates this waning. Protection against severe reinfection remains very strong, with no evidence for waning, irrespective of variant, for over 14 months after primary infection.

Protection from previous natural infection compared with mRNA vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in Qatar: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Understanding protection conferred by natural SARS-CoV-2 infection versus COVID-19 vaccination is important for informing vaccine mandate decisions. We compared protection conferred by natural infection versus that from the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccines in Qatar.

METHODS

We conducted two matched retrospective cohort studies that emulated target trials. Data were obtained from the national federated databases for COVID-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 testing, and COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death between Feb 28, 2020 (pandemic onset in Qatar) and May 12, 2022. We matched individuals with a documented primary infection and no vaccination record (natural infection cohort) with individuals who had received two doses (primary series) of the same vaccine (BNT162b2-vaccinated or mRNA-1273-vaccinated cohorts) at the start of follow-up (90 days after the primary infection). Individuals were exact matched (1:1) by sex, 10-year age group, nationality, comorbidity count, and timing of primary infection or first-dose vaccination. Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death in the natural infection cohorts was compared with incidence in the vaccinated cohorts, using Cox proportional hazards regression models with adjustment for matching factors.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 5, 2021 (date of second-dose vaccine roll-out) and May 12, 2022, 104 500 individuals vaccinated with BNT162b2 and 61 955 individuals vaccinated with mRNA-1273 were matched to unvaccinated individuals with a documented primary infection. During follow-up, 7123 SARS-CoV-2 infections were recorded in the BNT162b2-vaccinated cohort and 3583 reinfections were recorded in the matched natural infection cohort. 4282 SARS-CoV-2 infections were recorded in the mRNA-1273-vaccinated cohort and 2301 reinfections were recorded in the matched natural infection cohort. The overall adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for SARS-CoV-2 infection was 0·47 (95% CI 0·45-0·48) after previous natural infection versus BNT162b2 vaccination, and 0·51 (0·49-0·54) after previous natural infection versus mRNA-1273 vaccination. The overall adjusted HR for severe (acute care hospitalisations), critical (intensive care unit hospitalisations), or fatal COVID-19 cases was 0·24 (0·08-0·72) after previous natural infection versus BNT162b2 vaccination, and 0·24 (0·05-1·19) after previous natural infection versus mRNA-1273 vaccination. Severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 was rare in both the natural infection and vaccinated cohorts.

INTERPRETATION

Previous natural infection was associated with lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, regardless of the variant, than mRNA primary-series vaccination. Vaccination remains the safest and most optimal tool for protecting against infection and COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death, irrespective of previous infection status.

FUNDING

The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar; Qatar Ministry of Public Health; Hamad Medical Corporation; Sidra Medicine; Qatar Genome Programme; and Qatar University Biomedical Research Center.

COVID-19 vaccination challenges: A mini-review

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the infection of many people across the globe, over six million deaths, and has placed an unprecedented burden on public health worldwide. The pandemic has led to the high-speed development and production of vaccines against the COVID-19, as vaccines can end the pandemic. At the beginning of the program, vaccinations were initially targeted only at high-risk groups, such as the elderly, those with comorbidities, or healthcare workers. Although most of the mentioned populations have received the two recommended doses, limited resources have left many authorities with an effective vaccine undersupply. Therefore, policies have been implemented to manage the available doses of the vaccines more efficiently. As there is no universally agreed consensus on this topic, we discuss the different recommendations and guidelines regarding the time interval between the two vaccine doses and explain the different scenarios for applying the two doses.

Protection of vaccination versus hybrid immunity against infection with COVID-19 Omicron variants among Health-Care Workers

BACKGROUND AIM

The Omicron COVID-19 variants BA.1* and BA.2* evade immune system leading to increased transmissibility and breakthrough infections. We aim to test the hypothesis that immunity achieved post COVID-19 infection combined with vaccination (hybrid immunity), is more effective against Omicron infection than vaccination alone in a health-care setting.

METHODS

Data on regular pre-emptive PCR testing from all Health-Care Workers (HCWs) at Laiko University Hospital from 29th December 2020, date on which the national COVID-19 immunization program began in Greece, until 24th May 2022, were retrospectively collected and recorded. The infection rate was calculated after December 21st, 2021, when Omicron was the predominant circulating variant in Greece, as the total number of infections (positive PCR COVID-19 test regardless of symptoms) divided by the total person-months at risk.

RESULTS

Of 1,305 vaccinated HCWs who were included in the analysis [median age of 47 (IQR: 36, 56) years, 66.7 % women], 13 % and 87 % had received 2 or 3 vaccine doses (full and booster vaccination), respectively. A COVID-19 infection had occurred in 135 of 1,305 of participants prior to Omicron predominance. Of those 135 HCWs with hybrid immunity only 13 (9.6 %) were re-infected. Of the 154 and 1,016 HCWs with full and booster vaccination-induced immunity, respectively, 71 (46.1 %, infection rate 13.4/100 person-months) and 448 (44.1 %, infection rate 12.2/100 person-months) were infected during the follow up period. No association between gender or age and COVID-19 infection was found and none of the participants had a severe infection or died.

CONCLUSIONS

Hybrid immunity confers higher protection by almost 5-fold compared to full or booster vaccination for COVID-19 infection with the Omicron variant among HCWs who are at high risk of exposure. This may inform public health policies on how to achieve optimal immunity in terms of the timing and mode of vaccination.

Covid-19 Vaccine Protection among Children and Adolescents in Qatar

BACKGROUND

The BNT162b2 vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has been authorized for use in children 5 to 11 years of age and adolescents 12 to 17 years of age but in different antigen doses.

METHODS

We assessed the real-world effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine against infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among children and adolescents in Qatar. To compare the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the national cohort of vaccinated participants with the incidence in the national cohort of unvaccinated participants, we conducted three matched, retrospective, target-trial, cohort studies - one assessing data obtained from children 5 to 11 years of age after the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant became prevalent and two assessing data from adolescents 12 to 17 years of age before the emergence of the omicron variant (pre-omicron study) and after the omicron variant became prevalent. Associations were estimated with the use of Cox proportional-hazards regression models.

RESULTS

Among children, the overall effectiveness of the 10-μg primary vaccine series against infection with the omicron variant was 25.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.0 to 38.6). Effectiveness was highest (49.6%; 95% CI, 28.5 to 64.5) right after receipt of the second dose but waned rapidly thereafter and was negligible after 3 months. Effectiveness was 46.3% (95% CI, 21.5 to 63.3) among children 5 to 7 years of age and 16.6% (95% CI, -4.2 to 33.2) among those 8 to 11 years of age. Among adolescents, the overall effectiveness of the 30-μg primary vaccine series against infection with the omicron variant was 30.6% (95% CI, 26.9 to 34.1), but many adolescents had been vaccinated months earlier. Effectiveness waned over time since receipt of the second dose. Effectiveness was 35.6% (95% CI, 31.2 to 39.6) among adolescents 12 to 14 years of age and 20.9% (95% CI, 13.8 to 27.4) among those 15 to 17 years of age. In the pre-omicron study, the overall effectiveness of the 30-μg primary vaccine series against SARS-CoV-2 infection among adolescents was 87.6% (95% CI, 84.0 to 90.4) and waned relatively slowly after receipt of the second dose.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination in children was associated with modest, rapidly waning protection against omicron infection. Vaccination in adolescents was associated with stronger, more durable protection, perhaps because of the larger antigen dose. (Funded by Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar and others.).

Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants, age, vaccination, and prior infection on infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 infections

In 2021, Qatar experienced considerable incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection that was dominated sequentially by the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants. Using the cycle threshold (Ct) value of an RT-qPCR-positive test to proxy the inverse of infectiousness, we investigated infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 infections by variant, age, sex, vaccination status, prior infection status, and reason for testing in a random sample of 18,355 RT-qPCR-genotyped infections. Regression analyses were conducted to estimate associations with the Ct value of RT-qPCR-positive tests. Compared to Beta infections, Alpha and Delta infections demonstrated 2.56 higher Ct cycles (95% CI: 2.35-2.78), and 4.92 fewer cycles (95% CI: 4.67- 5.16), respectively. The Ct value declined gradually with age and was especially high for children <10 years of age, signifying lower infectiousness in small children. Children <10 years of age had 2.18 higher Ct cycles (95% CI: 1.88-2.48) than those 10-19 years of age. Compared to unvaccinated individuals, the Ct value was higher among individuals who had received one or two vaccine doses, but the Ct value decreased gradually with time since the second-dose vaccination. Ct value was 2.07 cycles higher (95% CI: 1.42-2.72) for those with a prior infection than those without prior infection. The Ct value was lowest among individuals tested because of symptoms and was highest among individuals tested as a travel requirement. Delta was substantially more infectious than Beta. Prior immunity, whether due to vaccination or prior infection, is associated with lower infectiousness of breakthrough infections, but infectiousness increases gradually with time since the second-dose vaccination.

Protection of Omicron sub-lineage infection against reinfection with another Omicron sub-lineage

There is significant genetic distance between SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant BA.1 and BA.2 sub-lineages. This study investigates immune protection of infection with one sub-lineage against reinfection with the other sub-lineage in Qatar during a large BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron wave, from December 19, 2021 to March 21, 2022. Two national matched, retrospective cohort studies are conducted to estimate effectiveness of BA.1 infection against reinfection with BA.2 (N = 20,994; BA.1-against-BA.2 study), and effectiveness of BA.2 infection against reinfection with BA.1 (N = 110,315; BA.2-against-BA.1 study). Associations are estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression models after multiple imputation to assign a sub-lineage status for cases with no sub-lineage status (using probabilities based on the test date). Effectiveness of BA.1 infection against reinfection with BA.2 is estimated at 94.2% (95% CI: 89.2-96.9%). Effectiveness of BA.2 infection against reinfection with BA.1 is estimated at 80.9% (95% CI: 73.1-86.4%). Infection with the BA.1 sub-lineage appears to induce strong, but not full immune protection against reinfection with the BA.2 sub-lineage, and vice versa, for at least several weeks after the initial infection.

Effects of Previous Infection and Vaccination on Symptomatic Omicron Infections

BACKGROUND

The protection conferred by natural immunity, vaccination, and both against symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with the BA.1 or BA.2 sublineages of the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant is unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a national, matched, test-negative, case-control study in Qatar from December 23, 2021, through February 21, 2022, to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination with BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna), natural immunity due to previous infection with variants other than omicron, and hybrid immunity (previous infection and vaccination) against symptomatic omicron infection and against severe, critical, or fatal coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).

RESULTS

The effectiveness of previous infection alone against symptomatic BA.2 infection was 46.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39.5 to 51.9). The effectiveness of vaccination with two doses of BNT162b2 and no previous infection was negligible (-1.1%; 95% CI, -7.1 to 4.6), but nearly all persons had received their second dose more than 6 months earlier. The effectiveness of three doses of BNT162b2 and no previous infection was 52.2% (95% CI, 48.1 to 55.9). The effectiveness of previous infection and two doses of BNT162b2 was 55.1% (95% CI, 50.9 to 58.9), and the effectiveness of previous infection and three doses of BNT162b2 was 77.3% (95% CI, 72.4 to 81.4). Previous infection alone, BNT162b2 vaccination alone, and hybrid immunity all showed strong effectiveness (>70%) against severe, critical, or fatal Covid-19 due to BA.2 infection. Similar results were observed in analyses of effectiveness against BA.1 infection and of vaccination with mRNA-1273.

CONCLUSIONS

No discernable differences in protection against symptomatic BA.1 and BA.2 infection were seen with previous infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity. Vaccination enhanced protection among persons who had had a previous infection. Hybrid immunity resulting from previous infection and recent booster vaccination conferred the strongest protection. (Funded by Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar and others.).

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in a Spanish region

Objective:

We aimed to assess the prevalence and clinical characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in a Spanish region.

Methods:

This is a retrospective observational study in all patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Lleida health region from 1 March to 30 November 2020. Reinfections were classified as patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests separated by at least 90 days plus a negative test result between both infection episodes. Primary and secondary outcomes: The primary outcome was the percentage of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections among all SARS-CoV-2 infections detected during our study period. Secondary outcomes were the clinical and sociodemographic characteristics of patients with SARS-CoV-2 reinfections.

Results:

Of the 27,758 patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the study period, 14 were identified as coronavirus reinfection (0.050%). Of the reinfected sample, 12 patients (85.7%) were women. The median age was 41.5 years. Two patients died in the second coronavirus episode.

Conclusion:

The reinfection rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Spanish region Lleida was relatively low during the observational period in 2020 (less than 1%). These data are in line with the notion that previous SARS-CoV-2 infections may offer a significant protection by so called natural immunity.

SARS CoV-2 reinfection rate is higher in the Omicron variant than in the Alpha and Delta variants

Background and objectives

Many mutations in variants for instance Delta and Alpha are associated with immune evasion and higher infectious potential. There are uncertainties regarding Omicron. In this regard, we aimed to compare the frequency of reinfection of SARS CoV-2 variants in our hospital between April 22, 2021 and January 26, 2022.

Method

The reinfection rates and demographic characteristics of a total of 27,487 COVID-19 patients infected with different SARS CoV-2 variants were examined.

Results

Reinfection was found in 26 (0.46%) of 5554 Alpha, 209 (1.16%) of 17,941 Delta, and 520 (13.0%) of 3992 Omicron variants. A statistically significant difference was observed between the reinfection rates of the variants (p = 0.000). The mean reinfection days were calculated as 204.4 ± 51.1 in the Alpha variant, 291.2 ± 58.2 in the Delta variant, and 361.2 ± 131.6 in the Omicron variant (p = 0.000). It was observed that 16.5% of reinfection cases caught COVID-19 for the second time 3–6 months after the first COVID-19 infection, 36.7% after 6–12 months, and 46.8% after more than 12 months. There was a significant difference between the times in reinfection cases. Most reinfections occurred more than 12 months apart. Among those with a reinfection time > 12 months, 0% had Alpha, 3.4% had Delta, and 96.6% had Omicron variants.

Conclusion

The highest reinfection rate was observed in the Omicron variant. Reinfection was approximately 30 times more frequent in the Omicron variant than in the Alpha variant and 10 times more frequent in the Delta variant.

Biological Properties of SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Epidemiological Impact and Clinical Consequences

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a virus that belongs to the coronavirus family and is the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As of May 2022, it had caused more than 500 million infections and more than 6 million deaths worldwide. Several vaccines have been produced and tested over the last two years. The SARS-CoV-2 virus, on the other hand, has mutated over time, resulting in genetic variation in the population of circulating variants during the COVID-19 pandemic. It has also shown immune-evading characteristics, suggesting that vaccinations against these variants could be potentially ineffective. The purpose of this review article is to investigate the key variants of concern (VOCs) and mutations of the virus driving the current pandemic, as well as to explore the transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in relation to epidemiological factors and to compare the virus's transmission rate to that of prior coronaviruses. We examined and provided key information on SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in this study, including their transmissibility, infectivity rate, disease severity, affinity for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors, viral load, reproduction number, vaccination effectiveness, and vaccine breakthrough.

Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants are genetically divergent. We conducted a matched, test-negative, case-control study to estimate duration of protection of the second and third/booster doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against BA.1 and BA.2 infections in Qatar. BNT162b2 effectiveness was highest at 46.6% (95% CI: 33.4-57.2%) against symptomatic BA.1 and at 51.7% (95% CI: 43.2-58.9%) against symptomatic BA.2 infections in the first three months after the second dose, but declined to ~10% or below thereafter. Effectiveness rebounded to 59.9% (95% CI: 51.2-67.0%) and 43.7% (95% CI: 36.5-50.0%), respectively, in the first month after the booster dose, before declining again. Effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalization and death was 70-80% after the second dose and >90% after the booster dose. mRNA-1273 vaccine protection showed similar patterns. mRNA vaccines provide comparable, moderate, and short-lived protection against symptomatic BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron infections, but strong and durable protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and death.

SARS-CoV-2 reinfections: Overview of efficacy and duration of natural and hybrid immunity

Seroprevalence surveys suggest that more than a third and possibly more than half of the global population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by early 2022. As large numbers of people continue to be infected, the efficacy and duration of natural immunity in terms of protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfections and severe disease is of crucial significance for the future. This narrative review provides an overview on epidemiological studies addressing this issue. National surveys covering 2020-2021 documented that a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with a significantly reduced risk of reinfections with efficacy lasting for at least one year and only relatively moderate waning immunity. Importantly, natural immunity showed roughly similar effect sizes regarding protection against reinfection across different SARS-CoV-2 variants, with the exception of the Omicron variant for which data are just emerging before final conclusions can be drawn. Risk of hospitalizations and deaths was also reduced in SARS-CoV-2 reinfections versus primary infections. Observational studies indicate that natural immunity may offer equal or greater protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to individuals receiving two doses of an mRNA vaccine, but data are not fully consistent. The combination of a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and a respective vaccination, termed hybrid immunity, seems to confer the greatest protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections, but several knowledge gaps remain regarding this issue. Natural immunity should be considered for public health policy regarding SARS-CoV-2.

Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Different COVID-19 treatment candidates are under development, and some are becoming available including two promising drugs from Merck and Pfizer. This study provides conceptual frameworks for the effects of three types of treatments, both therapeutic and prophylactic, and to investigate their population-level impact, to inform drug development, licensure, decision-making, and implementation. Different drug efficacies were assessed using an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, with application to the United States as an illustrative example. Severe and critical infection treatment reduces progression to COVID-19 severe and critical disease and death with small number of treatments needed to avert one disease or death. Post-exposure prophylaxis treatment had a large impact on flattening the epidemic curve, with large reductions in infection, disease, and death, but the impact was strongly age dependent. Pre-exposure prophylaxis treatment had the best impact and effectiveness, with immense reductions in infection, disease, and death, driven by the robust control of infection transmission. Effectiveness of both pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis treatments was disproportionally larger when a larger segment of the population was targeted than a specific age group. Additional downstream potential effects of treatment, beyond the primary outcome, enhance the population-level impact of both treatments. COVID-19 treatments are an important modality in controlling SARS-CoV-2 disease burden. Different types of treatment act synergistically for a larger impact, for these treatments and vaccination.

Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks: Dynamic Panel Data (Preprint)

Background

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta.

Objective

The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred.

Methods

We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate.

Results

Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak.

Conclusions

These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts.

Characterizing the effective reproduction number during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from Qatar’s experience

Background

The effective reproduction number, R_t, is a tool to track and understand pandemic dynamics. This investigation of R_t estimations was conducted to guide the national COVID-19 response in Qatar, from the onset of the pandemic until August 18, 2021.

Methods

Real-time “empirical” R_t^Empirical was estimated using five methods, including the Robert Koch Institute, Cislaghi, Systrom-Bettencourt and Ribeiro, Wallinga and Teunis, and Cori et al. methods. R_t was also estimated using a transmission dynamics model (R_t^Model-based). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Correlations between different R_t estimates were assessed by calculating correlation coefficients, and agreements between these estimates were assessed through Bland-Altman plots.

Results

R_t^Empirical captured the evolution of the pandemic through three waves, public health response landmarks, effects of major social events, transient fluctuations coinciding with significant clusters of infection, and introduction and expansion of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. The various estimation methods produced consistent and overall comparable R_t^Empirical estimates with generally large correlation coefficients. The Wallinga and Teunis method was the fastest at detecting changes in pandemic dynamics. R_t^Empirical estimates were consistent whether using time series of symptomatic PCR-confirmed cases, all PCR-confirmed cases, acute-care hospital admissions, or ICU-care hospital admissions, to proxy trends in true infection incidence. R_t^Model-based correlated strongly with R_t^Empirical and provided an average R_t^Empirical.

Conclusions

R_t estimations were robust and generated consistent results regardless of the data source or the method of estimation. Findings affirmed an influential role for R_t estimations in guiding national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, even in resource-limited settings.

Relative infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections, reinfections, and primary infections

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and in those who had a prior infection have been observed globally, but the transmission potential of these infections is unknown. The RT-qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) value is inversely correlated with viral load and culturable virus. Here, we investigate differences in RT-qPCR Ct values across Qatar's national cohorts of primary infections, reinfections, BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) breakthrough infections, and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) breakthrough infections. Our matched-cohort analyses of the randomly diagnosed infections show higher mean Ct value in all cohorts of breakthrough infections compared to the cohort of primary infections in unvaccinated individuals. The Ct value is 1.3 (95% CI: 0.9-1.8) cycles higher for BNT162b2 breakthrough infections, 3.2 (95% CI: 1.9-4.5) cycles higher for mRNA-1273 breakthrough infections, and 4.0 (95% CI: 3.5-4.5) cycles higher for reinfections in unvaccinated individuals. Since Ct value correlates inversely with SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness, these differences imply that vaccine breakthrough infections and reinfections are less infectious than primary infections in unvaccinated individuals. Public health benefits of vaccination may have been underestimated, as COVID-19 vaccines not only protect against acquisition of infection, but also appear to protect against transmission of infection.