Zika virus infection in Nicaraguan households

Of Murines and Humans: Modeling Persistent Powassan Disease in C57BL/6 Mice

Powassan infection is caused by two closely related, tick-transmitted viruses of the genus Flavivirus (family Flaviviridae): Powassan virus lineage I (POWV) and lineage II (known as deer tick virus [DTV]). Infection is typically asymptomatic or mild but can progress to neuroinvasive disease. Approximately 10% of neuroinvasive cases are fatal, and half of the survivors experience long-term neurological sequelae. Understanding how these viruses cause long-term symptoms as well as the possible role of viral persistence is important for developing therapies. We intraperitoneally inoculated 6-week-old C57BL/6 mice (50% female) with 103 focus-forming units (FFU) DTV and assayed for infectious virus, viral RNA, and inflammation during acute infection and 21, 56, and 84 days postinfection (dpi). Although most mice (86%) were viremic 3 dpi, only 21% of the mice were symptomatic and 83% recovered. Infectious virus was detected only in the brains of mice sampled during the acute infection. Viral RNA was detected in the brain until 84 dpi, but the magnitude decreased over time. Meningitis and encephalitis were visible in acute mice and from mice sampled at 21 dpi. Inflammation was observed until 56 dpi in the brain and 84 dpi in the spinal cord, albeit at low levels. These results suggest that the long-term neurological symptoms associated with Powassan disease are likely caused by lingering viral RNA and chronic inflammation in the central nervous system rather than by a persistent, active viral infection. The C57BL/6 model of persistent Powassan mimics illness in humans and can be used to study the mechanisms of chronic disease. IMPORTANCE Half of Powassan infection survivors experience long-term, mild to severe neurological symptoms. The progression from acute to chronic Powassan disease is not well understood, severely limiting treatment and prevention options. Infection of C57BL/6 mice with DTV mimics clinical disease in humans, and the mice exhibit CNS inflammation and viral RNA persistence until at least 86 dpi, while infectious virus is undetectable after 12 dpi. These findings suggest that the long-term neurological symptoms of chronic Powassan disease are in part due the persistence of viral RNA and the corresponding long-term inflammation of the brain and spinal cord. Our work demonstrates that C57BL/6 mice can be used to study the pathogenesis of chronic Powassan disease.

Socioeconomic risk markers of arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) infections: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are of notable public health importance worldwide, owing to their potential to cause explosive outbreaks and induce debilitating and potentially life-threatening disease manifestations. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to assess the relationship between markers of socioeconomic position (SEP) and infection due to arboviruses with mosquito vectors.

Methods

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Embase, and LILACS databases to identify studies published between 1980 and 2020 that measured the association of SEP markers with arbovirus infection. We included observational studies without geographic location or age restrictions. We excluded studies from grey literature, reviews and ecological studies. Study findings were extracted and summarised, and pooled estimates were obtained using random-effects meta-analyses.

Results

We identified 36 observational studies using data pertaining to 106 524 study participants in 23 geographic locations that empirically examined the relationship between socioeconomic factors and infections caused by seven arboviruses (dengue, chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis, Rift Valley fever, Sindbis, West Nile and Zika viruses). While results were varied, descriptive synthesis pointed to a higher risk of arbovirus infection associated with markers of lower SEP, including lower education, income poverty, low healthcare coverage, poor housing materials, interrupted water supply, marital status (married, divorced or widowed), non-white ethnicities and migration status. Pooled crude estimates indicated an increased risk of arboviral infection associated with lower education (risk ratio, RR 1.5 95% CI 1.3 to 1.9); I²=83.1%), interruption of water supply (RR 1.2; 95% CI 1.1 to 1.3; I²=0.0%) and having been married (RR 1.5 95% CI 1.1 to 2.1; I²=85.2%).

Conclusion

Evidence from this systematic review suggests that lower SEP increases the risk of acquiring arboviral infection; however, there was large heterogeneity across studies. Further studies are required to delineate the relationship between specific individual, household and community-level SEP indicators and arbovirus infection risks to help inform targeted public health interventions.

PROSPERO registration number

CRD42019158572.

Viral genome-based Zika virus transmission dynamics in a paediatric cohort during the 2016 Nicaragua epidemic

BACKGROUND

Nicaragua experienced a large Zika epidemic in 2016, with up to 50% of the population in Managua infected. With the domesticated Aedes aegypti mosquito as its vector, it is widely assumed that Zika virus transmission occurs within the household and/or via human mobility. We investigated these assumptions by using viral genomes to trace Zika transmission spatially.

METHODS

We analysed serum samples from 119 paediatric Zika cases participating in the long-standing Paediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Managua, which was expanded to include Zika in 2015. An optimal spanning directed tree was constructed by minimizing the differences in viral sequence diversity composition between patient nodes, where low-frequency variants were used to increase the resolution of the inferred Zika outbreak dynamics.

FINDINGS

Out of the 18 houses where pairwise difference in sample collection dates among all the household members was within 30 days, we only found two where viruses from individuals within the same household were up to 10th-most closely linked to each other genetically. We also identified a substantial number of transmission events involving long geographical distances (n=30), as well as potential super-spreading events in the estimated transmission tree.

INTERPRETATION

Our finding highlights that community transmission, often involving long geographical distances, played a much more important role in epidemic spread than within-household transmission.

FUNDING

This study was supported by an NUS startup grant (OMS) and grants R01 AI099631 (AB), P01 AI106695 (EH), P01 AI106695-03S1 (FB), and U19 AI118610 (EH) from the US National Institutes of Health.

Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature-dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid-century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst-case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV.

Prevalence and Incidence of Zika Virus Infection Among Household Contacts of Patients With Zika Virus Disease, Puerto Rico, 2016-2017

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the prevalence or incidence of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in settings affected by the 2015-2016 Zika pandemic and associated risk factors. We assessed these factors among household contacts of patients with ZIKV disease enrolled in a cohort study in Puerto Rico during 2016-2017.

METHODS

Household contacts of index case patients completed a questionnaire and gave specimens for real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and immunoglobulin M enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay testing to detect ZIKV infection. We measured the prevalence of ZIKV infection among contacts and associated individual and household factors, examined sexual transmission using a sexual-networks approach, and assessed incident infection among initially uninfected household contacts 2-4 months later.

RESULTS

Of 366 contacts, 34.4% had evidence of ZIKV infection at enrollment, including 11.2% by RT-PCR. Having open doors and windows that were either screened (prevalence ratio [PR], 2.1 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.2-3.6]) or unscreened (PR, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.5-4.1]) was associated with increased prevalence. Sexual partners were more likely to both be RT-PCR positive relative to other relationships (odds ratio, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.1-4.5]). At follow-up, 6.1% of contacts had evidence of incident infection.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified sexual contact as a risk factor for ZIKV infection. Persons living with ZIKV-infected individuals should be a focus of public health efforts.

The continued threat of emerging flaviviruses

Flaviviruses are vector-borne RNA viruses that can emerge unexpectedly in human populations and cause a spectrum of potentially severe diseases including hepatitis, vascular shock syndrome, encephalitis, acute flaccid paralysis, congenital abnormalities and fetal death. This epidemiological pattern has occurred numerous times during the last 70 years, including epidemics of dengue virus and West Nile virus, and the most recent explosive epidemic of Zika virus in the Americas. Flaviviruses are now globally distributed and infect up to 400 million people annually. Of significant concern, outbreaks of other less well-characterized flaviviruses have been reported in humans and animals in different regions of the world. The potential for these viruses to sustain epidemic transmission among humans is poorly understood. In this Review, we discuss the basic biology of flaviviruses, their infectious cycles, the diseases they cause and underlying host immune responses to infection. We describe flaviviruses that represent an established ongoing threat to global health and those that have recently emerged in new populations to cause significant disease. We also provide examples of lesser-known flaviviruses that circulate in restricted areas of the world but have the potential to emerge more broadly in human populations. Finally, we discuss how an understanding of the epidemiology, biology, structure and immunity of flaviviruses can inform the rapid development of countermeasures to treat or prevent human infections as they emerge.

Detecting Vertical Zika Transmission: Emerging Diagnostic Approaches for an Emerged Flavivirus

Zika virus (Zika) was recently responsible for a massive epidemic that spread throughout Latin America and beyond. Though Zika is typically asymptomatic or self-limiting, the sheer numbers of Zika infections led to the identification of unexpected phenotypes including sexual transmission, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and teratogenicity. Thousands of infants in South, Central, and North America have now been born with microcephaly or one of a number of fetal anomalies constituting the congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). Diagnosing CZS is based on a combination of clinical risk assessment and laboratory testing (which includes determining whether the mother has experienced a possible Zika infection during her pregnancy). A newborn suspected of having congenital Zika infection (due to maternal Zika infection or a birth defect described in association with congenital Zika infection) is then specifically tested for presence of Zika virus in neonatal tissue or anti-Zika IgM in the blood or cerebrospinal fluid. Though the guidelines are clear, there is room for considerable practice variation to emerge from individualized patient-provider encounters, largely due to limitations in diagnostic testing for Zika. The natural history of Zika further obscures our ability to know who, when, and how to test. Molecular diagnostics are highly specific but may not serve well those with asymptomatic infection. Serologic assays expand the diagnostic window but are complicated by cross-reactivity among related flaviviruses and passive immunity transferred from mother to baby. Furthermore, existing and emerging diagnostic tools may not be widely available due to limitations in resources and infrastructure of health systems in affected areas. Improvements in assay parameters as well as advances in platforms and deployability hold promise for optimizing diagnostic approaches for congenital Zika infection. The diagnostic tools and technologies under development must be integrated with forthcoming clinical knowledge of congenital Zika infection to fully realize the value that laboratory testing holds for diagnosing in utero mother to child transmission but also for understanding, predicting, and managing the health outcomes due to congenital Zika infection.

Impact of pre-existing dengue immunity on human antibody and memory B cell responses to Zika

Little is known about enduring memory B cell (MBC) responses to Zika virus (ZIKV) and their relationship with circulating antibodies. Here we comprehensively assess MBC frequency and specificity alongside serum binding and neutralizing antibody responses to ZIKV ~2 weeks and ~8 months postinfection in 31 pediatric subjects with 0, 1 or >1 prior infections with the related dengue virus (DENV). ZIKV infection elicits a robust type-specific MBC response, and the majority of late convalescent anti-ZIKV serum neutralizing activity is attributable to ZIKV-specific antibodies. The number of prior DENV infections does not influence type-specific or cross-reactive MBC responses, although ZIKV has the highest cross-reactivity with DENV3. DENV cross-reactive MBCs expanded by ZIKV infection decline in number and proportion by late convalescence. Finally, ZIKV induces greater cross-reactivity in the MBC pool than in serum antibodies. Our data suggest immunity to DENV only modestly shapes breadth and magnitude of enduring ZIKV antibody responses.

Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries.

METHODS

Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories.

RESULTS

There was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p < 0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.