Seroprevalence of dengue virus in two districts of Kaohsiung City after the largest dengue outbreak in Taiwan since World War II

Detection of anti-premembrane antibody as a specific marker of four flavivirus serocomplexes and its application to serosurveillance in endemic regions

In the past few decades, several emerging/re-emerging mosquito-borne flaviviruses have resulted in disease outbreaks of public health concern in the tropics and subtropics. Due to cross-reactivities of antibodies recognizing the envelope protein of different flaviviruses, serosurveillance remains a challenge. Previously we reported that anti-premembrane (prM) antibody can discriminate between three flavivirus infections by Western blot analysis. In this study, we aimed to develop a serological assay that can discriminate infection or exposure with flaviviruses from four serocomplexes, including dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), West Nile (WNV) and yellow fever (YFV) viruses, and explore its application for serosurveillance in flavivirus-endemic countries. We employed Western blot analysis including antigens of six flaviviruses (DENV1, 2 and 4, WNV, ZIKV and YFV) from four serocomplexes. We tested serum samples from YF-17D vaccinees, and from DENV, ZIKV and WNV panels that had been confirmed by RT-PCR or by neutralization assays. The overall sensitivity/specificity of anti-prM antibodies for DENV, ZIKV, WNV, and YFV infections/exposure were 91.7%/96.4%, 91.7%/99.2%, 88.9%/98.3%, and 91.3%/92.5%, respectively. When testing 48 samples from Brazil, we identified multiple flavivirus infections/exposure including DENV and ZIKV, DENV and YFV, and DENV, ZIKV and YFV. When testing 50 samples from the Philippines, we detected DENV, ZIKV, and DENV and ZIKV infections with a ZIKV seroprevalence rate of 10%, which was consistent with reports of low-level circulation of ZIKV in Asia. Together, these findings suggest that anti-prM antibody is a flavivirus serocomplex-specific marker and can be employed to delineate four flavivirus infections/exposure in regions where multiple flaviviruses co-circulate.

A scoping literature review of global dengue age-stratified seroprevalence data: estimating dengue force of infection in endemic countries

BACKGROUND

Dengue poses a significant burden worldwide, and a more comprehensive understanding of the heterogeneity in the intensity of dengue transmission within endemic countries is necessary to evaluate the potential impact of public health interventions.

METHODS

This scoping literature review aimed to update a previous study of dengue transmission intensity by collating global age-stratified dengue seroprevalence data published in the Medline, Embase and Web of Science databases from 2014 to 2023. These data were then utilised to calibrate catalytic models and estimate the force of infection (FOI), which is the yearly per-capita risk of infection for a typical susceptible individual.

FINDINGS

We found a total of 66 new publications containing 219 age-stratified seroprevalence datasets across 30 endemic countries. Together with the previously available average FOI estimates, there are now more than 250 dengue average FOI estimates obtained from seroprevalence studies from across the world.

INTERPRETATION

The results show large heterogeneities in average dengue FOI both across and within countries. These new estimates can be used to inform ongoing modelling efforts to improve our understanding of the drivers of the heterogeneity in dengue transmission globally, which in turn can help inform the optimal implementation of public health interventions.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Community Jameel, Drugs for Neglected Disease initiative (DNDi) funded by the French Development Agency, Médecins Sans Frontières International; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and UK aid.

Chikungunya virus antepartum transmission and abnormal infant outcomes in a cohort of pregnant women in Nigeria

OBJECTIVES

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a reemerging global public health concern, which causes acute febrile illness, rash, and arthralgia and may affect both mothers and infants during pregnancy. Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of CHIKV in Africa remains understudied.

METHODS

Our cohort study screened 1006 pregnant women with a Zika/dengue/CHIKV rapid test at two clinics in Nigeria between 2019 and 2022. Women who tested positive for the rapid test were followed through their pregnancy and their infants were observed for 6 months, with a subset tested by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and neutralization, to investigate seropositivity rates and MTCT of CHIKV.

RESULTS

Of the 1006, 119 tested positive for CHIKV immunoglobulin (Ig)M, of which 36 underwent detailed laboratory tests. While none of the IgM reactive samples were RT-PCR positive, 14 symptomatic pregnant women were confirmed by CHIKV neutralization test. Twelve babies were followed with eight normal and four abnormal outcomes, including stillbirth, cleft lip/palate with microcephaly, preterm delivery, polydactyly with sepsis, and jaundice. CHIKV IgM testing identified three possible antepartum transmissions.

CONCLUSION

In Nigeria, we found significant CHIKV infection in pregnancy and possible CHIKV antepartum transmission associated with birth abnormalities.

Dengue virus serotype did not contribute to clinical severity or mortality in Taiwan's largest dengue outbreak in 2015

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) was the major serotype in the 2015 dengue outbreak in Taiwan, while DENV-1 and DENV-3 were dominant between 2005 and 2014. We aimed to investigate whether DENV-2 contributed to disease severity and mortality in the outbreak in Kaohsiung city, Taiwan.

METHODS

We collected serum samples from dengue patients to detect the presence of DENV and determine the serotypes by using quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Our cohorts comprised 105 DENV-1-infected cases and 1,550 DENV-2-infected cases. Demographic data, DENV serotype, and comorbidities were covariates for univariate and multivariate analyses to explore the association with severity and mortality.

RESULTS

The results suggested that DENV-1 persisted and circulated, while DENV-2 was dominant during the dengue outbreak that occurred between September and December 2015. However, DENV-2 did not directly contribute to either severity or mortality. Aged patients and patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) or moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) had a higher risk of developing severe dengue. The mortality of dengue patients was related to a higher Charlson comorbidity index score and severe dengue. Among DENV-2-infected patients and older patients, preexisting anti-dengue IgG, DM, and moderate to severe CKD were associated with severe dengue. Moreover, female sex and severe dengue were associated with a significantly higher risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the importance of timely serological testing in elderly patients to identify potential secondary infections and focus on the meticulous management of elderly patients with DM or moderate to severe CKD to reduce dengue-related death.

Detection of anti-premembrane antibody as a specific marker of four flavivirus serocomplexes and its application to serosurveillance in endemic regions

In the past few decades, several emerging/re-emerging mosquito-borne flaviviruses have resulted in disease outbreaks of public health concern in the tropics and subtropics. Due to cross-reactivities of antibodies recognizing the envelope protein of different flaviviruses, serosurveillance remains a challenge. Previously we reported that anti-premembrane (prM) antibody can discriminate between three flavivirus infections by Western blot analysis. In this study, we aimed to develop a serological assay that can discriminate infection or exposure with flaviviruses from four serocomplexes, including dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), West Nile (WNV) and yellow fever (YFV) viruses, and explore its application for serosurveillance in flavivirus-endemic countries. We employed Western blot analysis including antigens of six flaviviruses (DENV1, 2 and 4, WNV, ZIKV and YFV) from four serocomplexes. We tested serum samples from YF-17D vaccinees, and from DENV, ZIKV and WNV panels that had been confirmed by RT-PCR or by neutralization assays. The overall sensitivity/specificity of anti-prM antibodies for DENV, ZIKV, WNV, and YFV infections/exposure were 91.7%/96.4%, 91.7%/99.2%, 88.9%/98.3%, and 91.3%/92.5%, respectively. When testing 48 samples from Brazil, we identified multiple flavivirus infections/exposure including DENV and ZIKV, DENV and YFV, and DENV, ZIKV and YFV. When testing 50 samples from the Philippines, we detected DENV, ZIKV, and DENV and ZIKV infections with a ZIKV seroprevalence rate of 10%, which was consistent with reports of low-level circulation of ZIKV in Asia. Together, these findings suggest that anti-prM antibody is a flavivirus serocomplex-specific marker and can be employed to delineate four flavivirus infections/exposure in regions where multiple flaviviruses co-circulate.

Chikungunya virus antepartum transmission and abnormal infant outcomes in Nigeria

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has become a global public health concern since the reemergence of the Indian Ocean lineage and expansion of the Asian genotype. CHIKV infection causes acute febrile illness, rash, and arthralgia and during pregnancy may affect both mothers and infants. The mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of CHIKV in Africa remains understudied. We screened 1006 pregnant women at two clinics in Nigeria between 2019 and 2022 and investigated the prevalence and MTCT of CHIKV. Of the 1006, 119 tested positive for CHIKV IgM, of which 36 underwent detailed laboratory tests. While none of the IgM reactive samples were RT-PCR positive, 14 symptomatic pregnant women were confirmed by CHIKV neutralization test. Twelve babies were followed with 8 normal and 4 abnormal outcomes, including stillbirth, cleft lip/palate with microcephaly, preterm delivery, polydactyly with sepsis and jaundice. CHIKV IgM testing identified 3 antepartum transmissions, further studies will determine its impact in antepartum infection.

Arbovirus surveillance in pregnant women in north-central Nigeria, 2019-2022

The adverse impact of Zika (ZIKV), dengue (DENV), and chikungunya (CHIKV) virus infection in pregnancy has been recognized in Latin America and Asia but is not well studied in Africa. In Nigeria, we screened 1006 pregnant women for ZIKV, DENV and CHIKV IgM/IgG by rapid test (2019-2022). Women with acute infection were recruited for prospective study and infants were examined for any abnormalities from delivery through six months. A subset of rapid test-reactive samples were confirmed using virus-specific ELISAs and neutralization assays. Prevalence of acute infection (IgM+) was 3.8%, 9.9% and 11.8% for ZIKV, DENV and CHIKV, respectively; co-infections represented 24.5% of all infections. Prevalence in asymptomatic women was twice the level of symptomatic infection. We found a significant association between acute maternal ZIKV/DENV/CHIKV infection and any gross abnormal birth outcome (p=0.014). Further prospective studies will contribute to our understanding of the clinical significance of these endemic arboviruses in Africa.

Identification of prior dengue-naïve Dengvaxia recipients with an increased risk for symptomatic dengue during fever surveillance in the Philippines

Introduction

Dengue virus (DENV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne viral diseases in humans. Dengvaxia, the first licensed dengue vaccine, is recommended for DENV-seropositive individuals aged 9-45 years. In the Philippines, Dengvaxia was administered to more than 830,000 children without prior serological testing in 2016-2017. Subsequently, it was revealed that DENV-seronegative children who received Dengvaxia developed severe disease following breakthrough DENV infection. As a result, thousands of children participating in the mass vaccination campaign were at higher risk of severe dengue disease. It is vital that an assay that identifies baseline DENV-naïve Dengvaxia recipients be developed and validated. This would permit more frequent and extensive assessments and timely treatment of breakthrough DENV infections.

Methods

We evaluated the performance of a candidate assay, the DENV1-4 nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), developed by the University of Hawaii (UH), using well-documented serum/plasma samples including those >20 years post-DENV infection, and tested samples from 199 study participants including 100 Dengvaxia recipients from the fever surveillance programs in the Philippines.

Results

The sensitivity and specificity of the assay were 96.6% and 99.4%, respectively, which are higher than those reported for pre-vaccination screening. A significantly higher rate of symptomatic breakthrough DENV infection was found among children that were DENV-naïve (10/23) than among those that were DENV-immune (7/53) when vaccinated with Dengvaxia (p=0.004, Fisher's exact test), demonstrating the feasibility of the assay and algorithms in clinical practice.

Conclusion

The UH DENV1-4 NS1 IgG ELISA can determine baseline DENV serostatus among Dengvaxia recipients not only during non-acute dengue but also during breakthrough DENV infection, and has implications for assessing the long-term safety and effectiveness of Dengvaxia in the post-licensure period.

Comparing the performance of dengue virus IgG and IgG-capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays in seroprevalence study

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus (DENV) is the leading cause of arboviral diseases in humans worldwide. Currently Dengvaxia, the first dengue vaccine licensed in 20 countries, was recommended for DENV seropositive individuals aged 9-45 years. Studying dengue seroprevalence can improve our understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of DENV, and facilitate future intervention strategies and assessment of vaccine efficacy. Several DENV envelope protein-based serological tests including IgG and IgG-capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) have been employed in seroprevalence studies. Previously DENV IgG-capture ELISA was reported to distinguish primary and secondary DENV infections during early convalescence, however, its performance over time and in seroprevalence study remains understudied.

METHODS

In this study, we used well-documented neutralization test- or reverse-transcription-polymerase-chain reaction-confirmed serum/plasma samples including DENV-naïve, primary and secondary DENV, primary West Nile virus, primary Zika virus, and Zika with previous DENV infection panels to compare the performance of three ELISAs.

RESULTS

The sensitivity of the InBios IgG ELISA was higher than that of InBios IgG-capture and SD IgG-capture ELISAs. The sensitivity of IgG-capture ELISAs was higher for secondary than primary DENV infection panel. Within the secondary DENV infection panel, the sensitivity of InBios IgG-capture ELISA decreased from 77.8% at < 6 months to 41.7% at 1-1.5 years, 28.6% at 2-15 years and 0% at > 20 years (p < 0.001, Cochran-Armitage test for trend), whereas that of IgG ELISA remains 100%. A similar trend was observed for SD IgG-capture ELISA.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate higher sensitivity of DENV IgG ELISA than IgG-capture ELISA in seroprevalence study and interpretation of DENV IgG-capture ELISA should take sampling time and primary or secondary DENV infection into consideration.

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity in China Using Catalytic Models Based on Serological Data

In recent decades, the global incidence of dengue has risen sharply, with more than 75% of infected people showing mild or no symptoms. Since the year 2000, dengue in China has spread quickly. At this stage, there is an urgent need to fully understand its transmission intensity and spread in China. Serological data provide reliable evidence for symptomatic and recessive infections. Through a literature search, we included 23 studies that collected age-specific serological dengue data released from 1980 to 2021 in China. Fitting four catalytic models to these data, we distinguished the transmission mechanisms by deviation information criterion and estimated force of infection and basic reproduction number (R₀), important parameters for quantifying transmission intensity. We found that transmission intensity varies over age in most of the study populations, and attenuation of antibody protection is identified in some study populations; the R₀ of dengue in China is between 1.04-2.33. Due to the scarceness of the data, the temporal trend cannot be identified, but data shows that transmission intensity weakened from coastal to inland areas and from southern to northern areas in China if assuming it remained temporally steady during the study period. The results should be useful for the effective control of dengue in China.

Dengue Meteorological Determinants during Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Periods in Taiwan

The identification of the key factors influencing dengue occurrence is critical for a successful response to the outbreak. It was interesting to consider possible differences in meteorological factors affecting dengue incidence during epidemic and non-epidemic periods. In this study, the overall correlation between weekly dengue incidence rates and meteorological variables were conducted in southern Taiwan (Tainan and Kaohsiung cities) from 2007 to 2017. The lagged-time Poisson regression analysis based on generalized estimating equation (GEE) was also performed. This study found that the best-fitting Poisson models with the smallest QICu values to characterize the relationships between dengue fever cases and meteorological factors in Tainan (QICu = −8.49 × 10−3) and Kaohsiung (−3116.30) for epidemic periods, respectively. During dengue epidemics, the maximum temperature with 2-month lag (β = 0.8400, p < 0.001) and minimum temperature with 5-month lag (0.3832, p < 0.001). During non-epidemic periods, the minimum temperature with 3-month lag (0.1737, p < 0.001) and mean temperature with 2-month lag (2.6743, p < 0.001) had a positive effect on dengue incidence in Tainan and Kaohsiung, respectively.

Identification of Anti-Premembrane Antibody as a Serocomplex-Specific Marker To Discriminate Zika, Dengue, and West Nile Virus Infections

Although transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas has greatly declined since late 2017, recent reports of reduced risks of symptomatic Zika by prior dengue virus (DENV) infection and increased risks of severe dengue disease by previous ZIKV or DENV infection underscore a critical need for serological tests that can discriminate past ZIKV, DENV, and/or other flavivirus infections and improve our understanding of the immune interactions between these viruses and vaccine strategy in endemic regions. As serological tests for ZIKV primarily focus on envelope (E) and nonstructural protein 1 (NS1), antibodies to other ZIKV proteins have not been explored. Here, we employed Western blot analysis using antigens of 6 flaviviruses from 3 serocomplexes to investigate antibody responses following reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR)-confirmed ZIKV infection. Panels of 20 primary ZIKV and 20 ZIKV with previous DENV infection recognized E proteins of all 6 flaviviruses and the NS1 protein of ZIKV with some cross-reactivity to DENV. While the primary ZIKV panel recognized only the premembrane (prM) protein of ZIKV, the ZIKV with previous DENV panel recognized both ZIKV and DENV prM proteins. Analysis of antibody responses following 42 DENV and 18 West Nile virus infections revealed similar patterns of recognition by anti-E and anti-NS1 antibodies, whereas both panels recognized the prM protein of the homologous serocomplex but not others. The specificity was further supported by analysis of sequential samples. Together, these findings suggest that anti-prM antibody is a flavivirus serocomplex-specific marker and can be used to delineate current and past flavivirus infections in endemic areas. IMPORTANCE Despite a decline in Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission since late 2017, questions regarding its surveillance, potential reemergence, and interactions with other flaviviruses in regions where it is endemic remain unanswered. Recent studies have reported reduced risks of symptomatic Zika by prior dengue virus (DENV) infection and increased risks of severe dengue disease by previous ZIKV or DENV infection, highlighting a need for better serological tests to discriminate past ZIKV, DENV, and/or other flavivirus infections and improved understanding of the immune interactions and vaccine strategy for these viruses. As most serological tests for ZIKV focused on envelope and nonstructural protein 1, antibodies to other ZIKV proteins, including potentially specific antibodies, remain understudied. We employed Western blot analysis using antigens of 6 flaviviruses to study antibody responses following well-documented ZIKV, DENV, and West Nile virus infections and identified anti-premembrane antibody as a flavivirus serocomplex-specific marker to delineate current and past flavivirus infections in areas where flaviviruses are endemic.

Dengue Detection: Advances in Diagnostic Tools from Conventional Technology to Point of Care

The dengue virus (DENV) is a vector-borne flavivirus that infects around 390 million individuals each year with 2.5 billion being in danger. Having access to testing is paramount in preventing future infections and receiving adequate treatment. Currently, there are numerous conventional methods for DENV testing, such as NS1 based antigen testing, IgM/IgG antibody testing, and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). In addition, novel methods are emerging that can cut both cost and time. Such methods can be effective in rural and low-income areas throughout the world. In this paper, we discuss the structural evolution of the virus followed by a comprehensive review of current dengue detection strategies and methods that are being developed or commercialized. We also discuss the state of art biosensing technologies, evaluated their performance and outline strategies to address challenges posed by the disease. Further, we outline future guidelines for the improved usage of diagnostic tools during recurrence or future outbreaks of DENV.

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays using virus-like particles containing mutations of conserved residues on envelope protein can distinguish three flavivirus infections

The recent outbreaks of Zika virus (ZIKV) in flavivirus-endemic regions highlight the need for sensitive and specific serological tests. Previously we and others reported key fusion loop (FL) residues and/or BC loop (BCL) residues on dengue virus (DENV) envelope protein recognized by flavivirus cross-reactive human monoclonal antibodies and polyclonal sera. To improve ZIKV serodiagnosis, we employed wild type (WT) and FL or FL/BCL mutant virus-like particles (VLP) of ZIKV, DENV1 and West Nile virus (WNV) in enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA), and tested convalescent-phase serum or plasma samples from reverse-transcription PCR-confirmed cases with different ZIKV, DENV and WNV infections. For IgG ELISA, ZIKV WT-VLP had a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 52.9%, which was improved to 83.3% by FL/BCL mutant VLP and 92.2% by the ratio of relative optical density of mutant to WT VLP. Similarly, DENV1 and WNV WT-VLP had a sensitivity/specificity of 100%/70.0% and 100%/56.3%, respectively; the specificity was improved to 93.3% and 83.0% by FL mutant VLP. For IgM ELISA, ZIKV, DENV1 and WNV WT-VLP had a specificity of 96.4%, 92.3% and 91.4%, respectively, for primary infection; the specificity was improved to 93.7–99.3% by FL or FL/BCL mutant VLP. An algorithm based on a combination of mutant and WT-VLP IgG ELISA is proposed to discriminate primary ZIKV, DENV and WNV infections as well as secondary DENV and ZIKV infection with previous DENV infections; this could be a powerful tool to better understand the seroprevalence and pathogenesis of ZIKV in regions where multiple flaviviruses co-circulate.

Use of seroprevalence to guide dengue vaccination plans for older adults in a dengue non-endemic country

A shift in dengue cases toward the adult population, accompanied by an increased risk of severe cases of dengue in the elderly, has created an important emerging issue in the past decade. To understand the level of past DENV infection among older adults after a large dengue outbreak occurred in southern Taiwan in 2015, we screened 1498 and 2603 serum samples from healthy residents aged ≥ 40 years in Kaohsiung City and Tainan City, respectively, to assess the seroprevalence of anti-DENV IgG in 2016. Seropositive samples were verified to exclude cross-reaction from Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), using DENV/JEV-NS1 indirect IgG ELISA. We further identified viral serotypes and secondary DENV infections among positive samples in the two cities. The overall age-standardized seroprevalence of DENV-IgG among participants was 25.77% in Kaohsiung and 11.40% in Tainan, and the seroprevalence was significantly higher in older age groups of both cities. Although the percentages of secondary DENV infection in Kaohsiung and Tainan were very similar (43.09% and 44.76%, respectively), DENV-1 and DENV-2 spanned a wider age range in Kaohsiung, whereas DENV-2 was dominant in Tainan. As very few studies have obtained the serostatus of DENV infection in older adults and the elderly, this study highlights the need for further investigation into antibody status, as well as the safety and efficacy of dengue vaccination in these older populations.

Retrospective Seroepidemiology study of dengue virus infection in Taiwan

Background

Dengue virus infection has been an important and serious public health concern in Taiwan, where local outbreaks of dengue fever occurred almost every year. To our knowledge, no nationwide investigation has been carried out to determine the actual extent of infection in the general population.

Methods

A total of 1308 random serum samples were collected from the general population in Taiwan in 2010. The antibody-captured enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were used to detect DENV-specific IgM and IgG. Demographics data were used for risk analysis.

Results

The weighted overall seroprevalence was 1.96% for anti-DENV IgM, and 3.4% for anti-DENV IgG, respectively. A significant rise of DENV IgG seropositive rate had been noted since late adulthood stage, from 1.1% at the age group of 50–59 years to 7.6% at the age group of 60–69 years. For people aged over 70 years, the seropositive rate reached 19%. Age, nationality, and regions of residency were associated with the IgG seropositivity. There was no statistically significant difference in seroprevalence of anti-Dengue IgM, indicating recent infection, among univariate predictors we proposed, including gender, age, residency, nationality, and household size.

Conclusions

Our results indicated that the majority of population in Taiwan born after 1940 is naive to dengue virus and the prevalence of IgG antibody against dengue virus rises with age. Nationality, and regions of residency are associated with the exposure of population to infection by dengue viruses. Further studies are needed to realize the current situation of seroprevalence of dengue fever in Taiwan.

Assessing the risk of dengue severity using demographic information and laboratory test results with machine learning

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus causes a wide spectrum of disease, which ranges from subclinical disease to severe dengue shock syndrome. However, estimating the risk of severe outcomes using clinical presentation or laboratory test results for rapid patient triage remains a challenge. Here, we aimed to develop prognostic models for severe dengue using machine learning, according to demographic information and clinical laboratory data of patients with dengue.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Out of 1,581 patients in the National Cheng Kung University Hospital with suspected dengue infections and subjected to NS1 antigen, IgM and IgG, and qRT-PCR tests, 798 patients including 138 severe cases were enrolled in the study. The primary target outcome was severe dengue. Machine learning models were trained and tested using the patient dataset that included demographic information and qualitative laboratory test results collected on day 1 when they sought medical advice. To develop prognostic models, we applied various machine learning methods, including logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting machine, support vector classifier, and artificial neural network, and compared the performance of the methods. The artificial neural network showed the highest average discrimination area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.8324 ± 0.0268) and balance accuracy (0.7523 ± 0.0273). According to the model explainer that analyzed the contributions/co-contributions of the different factors, patient age and dengue NS1 antigenemia were the two most important risk factors associated with severe dengue. Additionally, co-existence of anti-dengue IgM and IgG in patients with dengue increased the probability of severe dengue.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We developed prognostic models for the prediction of dengue severity in patients, using machine learning. The discriminative ability of the artificial neural network exhibited good performance for severe dengue prognosis. This model could help clinicians obtain a rapid prognosis during dengue outbreaks. However, the model requires further validation using external cohorts in future studies.

Trends of the Dengue Serotype-4 Circulation with Epidemiological, Phylogenetic, and Entomological Insights in Lao PDR between 2015 and 2019

Dengue outbreaks have regularly been recorded in Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) since the first detection of the disease in 1979. In 2012, an integrated arbovirus surveillance network was set up in Lao PDR and an entomological surveillance has been implemented since 2016 in Vientiane Capital. Here, we report a study combining epidemiological, phylogenetic, and entomological analyzes during the largest DENV-4 epidemic ever recorded in Lao PDR (2015-2019). Strikingly, from 2015 to 2019, we reported the DENV-4 emergence and spread at the country level after two large epidemics predominated by DENV-3 and DENV-1, respectively, in 2012-2013 and 2015. Our data revealed a significant difference in the median age of the patient infected by DENV-4 compared to the other serotypes. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated the circulation of DENV-4 Genotype I at the country level since at least 2013. The entomological surveillance showed a predominance of Aedesaegypti compared to Aedesalbopictus and high abundance of these vectors in dry and rainy seasons between 2016 and 2019, in Vientiane Capital. Overall, these results emphasized the importance of an integrated approach to evaluate factors, which could impact the circulation and the epidemiological profile of dengue viruses, especially in endemic countries like Lao PDR.

Epidemiological analysis of the Kaohsiung city strategy for dengue fever quarantine and epidemic prevention

Background

Dengue is endemic in over 100 countries and is an important public health problem worldwide. Dengue fever is not endemic in Taiwan; the importation of dengue viruses from neighboring countries via close commercial links and air travel is considered to be the cause of local outbreaks. Therefore, efforts toward disease control have focused on preventing the importation of dengue into Taiwan. In this study, we investigated the relationships between the numbers of imported and indigenous dengue cases to test the validity of this strategy.

Methods

Data on cases of dengue fever that occurred between 2013 and 2018 were obtained from the surveillance systems of the Taiwan Center for Disease Control and Kaohsiung City Health Department. Standard epidemiological data, including the monthly numbers of indigenous and imported cases of dengue, were calculated. Potential associations between the numbers of indigenous and imported cases were investigated using correlation analyses.

Results

We identified a possible relationship between the period of disease concealment and the number of imported dengue cases, which resulted in epidemics of indigenous dengue fever within local communities. Further analysis of confirmed cases during previous epidemics in Kaohsiung City found that the risk of indigenous dengue fever may be related to the likelihood that patients with imported dengue fever will stay within local communities.

Conclusion

Given the correlations found between imported and indigenous cases of dengue fever, as well as the relationship between the disease concealment period and the risk of indigenous dengue fever, prevention of disease importation and efficient identification of dengue cases within high-risk communities remain the major priorities for disease control.

Seroprevalence of Dengue Virus and Rickettsial Infections in Cambodian Children

Scrub typhus (ST, Orientia tsutsugamushi), murine typhus (MT, Rickettsia typhi), and dengue virus (DENV) are important causes of childhood morbidity in Cambodia. This prospective, cross-sectional seroprevalence study determined the proportion of Cambodian children infected by these pathogens and the ages at which initial infection is likely to occur. A total of 993 patient serum samples were tested for MT- and ST-specific IgG, and 837 samples tested for DENV-specific IgG. Overall, ST, MT, and DENV seroprevalence was high, estimated at 4.2%, 5.3%, and 50.7%, respectively. Scrub typhus and MT seropositivity peaked in children aged 8–11 and 12–15 years, respectively, suggesting initial infection occurs in these ages. Dengue virus seroprevalence steadily increased with age, indicating constant DENV exposure. The results of this study suggest that in Cambodian children presenting with undifferentiated febrile illness, dengue should be considered high in the list of differential diagnoses, and empirical anti-rickettsial antimicrobial therapy may be more indicated in 8- to 15-year-olds.

A high-throughput and multiplex microsphere immunoassay based on non-structural protein 1 can discriminate three flavivirus infections

The explosive spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) and associated complications in flavivirus-endemic regions underscore the need for sensitive and specific serodiagnostic tests to distinguish ZIKV, dengue virus (DENV) and other flavivirus infections. Compared with traditional envelope protein-based assays, several nonstructural protein 1 (NS1)-based assays showed improved specificity, however, none can detect and discriminate three flaviviruses in a single assay. Moreover, secondary DENV infection and ZIKV infection with previous DENV infection, both common in endemic regions, cannot be discriminated. In this study, we developed a high-throughput and multiplex IgG microsphere immunoassay (MIA) using the NS1 proteins of DENV1-DENV4, ZIKV and West Nile virus (WNV) to test samples from reverse-transcription-polymerase-chain reaction-confirmed cases, including primary DENV1, DENV2, DENV3, WNV and ZIKV infections, secondary DENV infection, and ZIKV infection with previous DENV infection. Combination of four DENV NS1 IgG MIAs revealed a sensitivity of 94.3% and specificity of 97.2% to detect DENV infection. The ZIKV and WNV NS1 IgG MIAs had a sensitivity/specificity of 100%/87.9% and 86.1%/78.4%, respectively. A positive correlation was found between the readouts of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and MIA for different NS1 tested. Based on the ratio of relative median fluorescence intensity of ZIKV NS1 to DENV1 NS1, the IgG MIA can distinguish ZIKV infection with previous DENV infection and secondary DENV infection with a sensitivity of 88.9–90.0% and specificity of 91.7–100.0%. The multiplex and high-throughput assay could be applied to serodiagnosis and serosurveillance of DENV, ZIKV and WNV infections in endemic regions.

Although there was a decrease of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection since late 2017, the specter of congenital Zika syndrome and its re-emergence in flavivirus-endemic regions emphasize the need for sensitive and specific serological tests to distinguish ZIKV, dengue virus (DENV) and other flaviviruses. Compared with traditional tests based on envelope protein, several nonstructural protein 1 (NS1)-based assays had improved specificity, however, none can discriminate three flaviviruses in a single assay. Moreover, secondary DENV infection and ZIKV infection with previous DENV infection, both common in endemic regions, cannot be distinguished. Herein we developed a high-throughput and multiplex IgG microsphere immunoassay using the NS1 proteins of four DENV serotypes, ZIKV and West Nile virus to test samples from laboratory-confirmed cases with different primary and secondary flavivirus infections. Combination of four DENV NS1 assays revealed a sensitivity of 94.3% and specificity of 97.2%. The ZIKV and WNV NS1 assays had a sensitivity/specificity of 100%/87.9% and 86.1%/78.4%, respectively. Based on the signal ratio of ZIKV NS1 to DENV1 NS1, the assay can distinguish ZIKV infection with previous DENV infection and secondary DENV infection with a sensitivity of 88.9–90.0% and specificity of 91.7–100.0%. This has applications to serodiagnosis and serosurveillance in endemic regions.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of Dengue virus outbreaks in two regions of China, 2014 - 2015

Dengue virus (DENV), a single-stranded RNA virus and Flaviviridae family member, is transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. DENV causes dengue fever, which may progress to severe dengue. Hospital-based surveillance was performed in two Chinese regions, Guangzhou and Xishuangbanna, during the dengue epidemics in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Acute-phase serum was obtained from 133 patients with suspected dengue infections during the peak season for dengue cases. Viremia levels, virus sero-positivity, serotype distribution, infection type, clinical manifestations and virus phylogenetics were investigated. Of the 112 DENV-confirmed cases, 92(82.14%) were IgM antibody-positive for DENV, and 69(51.88%) were positive for DENV RNA. From these cases, 47(41.96%) were classified as primary infections, 39(34.82%) as secondary infections and 26 (23.21%) as undetermined infections. The viremia levels were negatively correlated with IgM presence, but had no relationship with the infection type. DENV-1 genotype V dominated in Guangzhou, whereas the DENV-2 Cosmopolitan genotype dominated in Xishuangbanna, where fewer DENV-1 genotype I cases occurred. DENV-2 is associated with severe dengue illness with more serious clinical issues. The strains isolated during 2014–2015 are closely related to the isolates obtained from other Chinese regions and to those isolated recently in Southeast Asian countries. Our results indicate that DENV is no longer an imported virus and is now endemic in China. An extensive seroepidemiological study of DENV and the implementation of vector control measures against it are now warranted in China.

Combination of Nonstructural Protein 1-Based Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays Can Detect and Distinguish Various Dengue Virus and Zika Virus Infections

The recent outbreaks of Zika virus (ZIKV) and associated birth defects in regions of dengue virus (DENV) endemicity emphasize the need for sensitive and specific serodiagnostic tests. We reported previously that enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) based on the nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) of DENV serotype 1 (DENV1) and ZIKV can distinguish primary DENV1, secondary DENV, and ZIKV infections. Whether ELISAs based on NS1 proteins of other DENV serotypes can discriminate various DENV and ZIKV infections remains unknown. We herein developed DENV2, DENV3, and DENV4 NS1 IgG ELISAs to test convalescent- and postconvalescent-phase samples from reverse transcription-PCR-confirmed cases, including 25 primary DENV1, 24 primary DENV2, 10 primary DENV3, 67 secondary DENV, 36 primary West Nile virus, 38 primary ZIKV, and 35 ZIKV with previous DENV infections as well as 55 flavivirus-naive samples. Each ELISA detected primary DENV infection with a sensitivity of 100% for the same serotype and 23.8% to 100% for different serotypes. IgG ELISA using a mixture of DENV1-4 NS1 proteins detected different primary and secondary DENV infections with a sensitivity of 95.6% and specificity of 89.5%. The ZIKV NS1 IgG ELISA detected ZIKV infection with a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 82.9%. On the basis of the relative optical density ratio, the combination of DENV1-4 and ZIKV NS1 IgG ELISAs distinguished ZIKV with previous DENV and secondary DENV infections with a sensitivity of 91.7% to 94.1% and specificity of 87.0% to 95.0%. These findings have important applications to serodiagnosis, serosurveillance, and monitoring of both DENV and ZIKV infections in regions of endemicity.