Under-reporting of road traffic mortality in developing countries: application of a capture-recapture statistical model to refine mortality estimates

Estimation of the completeness of road traffic mortality data in Zambia using a three source capture recapture method

BACKGROUND

Accurate and reliable data are essential for tracking progress and evaluating the effectiveness of road safety intervention measures. However, in many low- and medium-income countries, good quality data on road traffic crashes are often difficult to obtain. This situation has led to an underestimation of the severity of the problem and distortions in trends when the reporting changes over time. This study estimates the completeness of road traffic crash fatality data in Zambia.

METHODS

Data from the police, hospitals, and the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) databases was collected for the period 1st January to 31st December 2020 and analyzed using a three-source capture-recapture technique.

RESULTS

A total of 666 unique records on mortalities as a result of road traffic crashes were collected from the three data sources during the period under review. The capture-recapture technique estimated the completeness of police, hospital, and CRVS databases to be 19%, 11% and 14% respectively. The combination of the three data sets was found to increase completeness to 37%. Based on this completion rate, we estimate that the actual number of people who died as a result of road traffic crashes in Lusaka Province in the year 2020 was approximately 1,786 (95% CI [1,448-2,274]). This corresponds to an estimated mortality rate of around 53 deaths per 100,000 population.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no single database contains complete data to provide a comprehensive picture of Lusaka province and by extension the country's road traffic injury burden. This study has shown how capture and recapture method can address this problem. It shows the need for the continuous review of the data collection processes and procedures in order to identify gaps and bottlenecks, improve efficiency, and increase the quality and completeness of road traffic data on injuries and fatalities. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that the city of Lusaka province and Zambia as a whole utilize more than one database for official reporting of road traffic fatalities to increase completeness.

Addressing discrepancies in estimates of road traffic deaths and injuries in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

There are large discrepancies between official statistics of traffic injuries in African countries and estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and WHO's Global Status Reports on Road Safety (GSRRS). We sought to assess the magnitude of the discrepancy in Ethiopia, its implications and how it can be addressed.

METHODS

We systematically searched for nationally representative epidemiological data sources for road traffic injuries and vehicle ownership in Ethiopia and compared estimates with those from GBD and GSRRS.

FINDINGS

GBD and GSRRS estimates vary substantially across revisions and across projects. GSRRS-2018 estimates of deaths (27 326 in 2016) are more than three times GBD-2019 estimates (8718), and these estimates have non-overlapping uncertainty ranges. GSRRS estimates align well with the 2016 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS-2016; 27 838 deaths, 95th CI: 15 938 to 39 738). Official statistics are much lower (5118 deaths in 2018) than all estimates. GBD-2019 estimates of serious non-fatal injuries are consistent with DHS-2016 estimates (106 050 injuries, 95th CI: 81 728 to 130 372) and older estimates from the 2003 World Health Survey. Data from five surveys confirm that vehicle ownership levels in Ethiopia are much lower than in other countries in the region.

INTERPRETATION

Inclusion of data from national health surveys in GBD and GSRRS can help reduce discrepancies in estimates of deaths and support their use in highlighting under-reporting in official statistics and advocating for better prioritisation of road safety in the national policy agenda. GBD methods for estimating serious non-fatal injuries should be strengthened to allow monitoring progress towards Sustainable Development Goal target 3.6.

Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model

BACKGROUND

Road traffic injuries are a significant cause of death and disability globally. However, in some countries the exact health burden caused by road traffic injuries is unknown. In Malawi, there is no central reporting mechanism for road traffic injuries and so the exact extent of the health burden caused by road traffic injuries is hard to determine. A limited number of models predict the incidence of mortality due to road traffic injury in Malawi. These estimates vary greatly, owing to differences in assumptions, and so the health burden caused on the population by road traffic injuries remains unclear.

METHODS

We use an individual-based model and combine an epidemiological model of road traffic injuries with a health seeking behaviour and health system model. We provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries in Malawi, from the onset of the injury through to the final health outcome. We also investigate the effects of an assumption made by other models that multiple injuries do not contribute to health burden caused by road accidents.

RESULTS

Our model estimates an overall average incidence of mortality between 23.5 and 29.8 per 100,000 person years due to road traffic injuries and an average of 180,000 to 225,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per year between 2010 and 2020 in an estimated average population size of 1,364,000 over the 10-year period. Our estimated incidence of mortality falls within the range of other estimates currently available for Malawi, whereas our estimated number of DALYs is greater than the only other estimate available for Malawi, the GBD estimate predicting and average of 126,200 DALYs per year over the same time period. Our estimates, which account for multiple injuries, predict a 22-58% increase in overall health burden compared to the model ran as a single injury model.

CONCLUSIONS

Road traffic injuries are difficult to model with conventional modelling methods, owing to the numerous types of injuries that occur. Using an individual-based model framework, we can provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries. Our results indicate a higher health burden caused by road traffic injuries than previously estimated.

Modeling Frequency of Injuries per Vehicle Crash in Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Background

Traffic accident is the most serious problem in developing countries like Ethiopia, which is among the leading cause of death with the highest increasing rate from year to year in Ethiopia. This research aimed to identify the associated factors on the frequency of injuries per vehicle crash in Gurage zone.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted to identify the contributing factors of a number of injuries per accident. The data were collected from all traffic control and investigation office of 13 Woredas (Districts) for the past five consecutive years from 2013 to 2017. Negative Binomial Regression model was employed to identify the associated factors that affect the number of injuries per accident.

Results

A total of 334 accidents recorded in the last five years from 2013 to 2017 in Gurage zone. Two hundred eight three (84.73%) of the accidents were caused 610 number of injuries. The significantly associated factors of frequency of injuries per road traffic accidents were Drivers' Age (IR: 0.9813; CI: 0.9664 - 0.9962), Drivers' Sex: Female (IR : 1.6386; CI : 1.2176 - 2.0596), Drivers' vehicles ownership: Hired (IR: 1.4216; CI: 1.1697 - 1.6735) and non-drivers' related variables, like weather condition: Rainy (IR: 1.6041; CI: 1.2552 - 1.9529), road shape: street-square (IR: 1.7421 ; CI: 1.1908 - 2.2934) and vehicle type: Isuzu (load)(IR: 1.6845; CI : 1.2592 - 2.1098) Minibus (IR: 2.7253; CI 2.3129 - 3.1377).

Conclusions

This study found that, Driver's related factors: Driver's Age, Sex, Drivers' vehicle ownership, and non-drivers' related variables: Weather condition, Road shape, and Vehicle type were identified as significantly associated factors on the frequency of injuries per vehicle crash in Gurage Zone.

Geographical mapping of road traffic injuries in Lilongwe, Malawi

BACKGROUND

Road traffic injuries are a leading cause of death and disability, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Identifying injury hotspots are valuable for introducing preventive measures. This is usually accomplished by using police data, but these are often unreliable in low-income countries. This study aimed to identify hotspots for injuries by collecting geographical data in the emergency room.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study of adult road traffic injury patients presenting to the Casualty Department in the central hospital in Lilongwe, the capital of Malawi. An electronic tablet with downloaded maps and satellite photos was used to establish the exact location of the injuries. The geographical data were analyzed with geographic information software.

RESULTS

We included 1244 road traffic injured patients, of which 23.9% were car passengers or drivers, 18.6% were motorcyclists, 17.8% were pedestrians and 18.0% were cyclists or bicycle passengers. Heatmaps of the injuries identified 5 locations where the incidence of injuries was especially high, and 148 patients were injured in these hotspots during the 90 days of inclusion. Four of these hotspots were along the main road through the capital. Age over 55, rural setting, alcohol use before the injury, high speed limit at the site of injury and being a pedestrian or motorcyclist were significantly associated with a higher degree of injury severity. Around half of the patients that were injured in a four-wheeled vehicle did not use a seat belt, and these patients had a much higher risk of getting a more severe injury.

CONCLUSION

We have identified specific locations with a high incidence of road traffic injuries in Lilongwe, Malawi, with a simple methodology and within a short time frame. The study demonstrates the feasibility of collecting geographical data at admission to hospital.

Mass Casualty Incident Management for Resource-Limited Settings: Lessons From Central Haiti

OBJECTIVE

Mass casualty incidents (MCIs) have gained increasing attention in recent years due multiple high-profile events. MCI preparedness improves the outcomes of trauma victims, both in the hospital and prehospital settings. Yet most MCI protocols are designed for high-income countries, even though the burden of mass casualty incidents is greater in low-resource settings.

RESULTS

Hôpital Universitaire de Mirebalais (HUM), a 300-bed academic teaching hospital in central Haiti, developed MCI protocols in an iterative process after a large MCI in 2014. Frequent MCIs from road traffic collisions allowed protocol refinement over time. HUM's protocols outline communication plans, triage, schematics for reorganization of the emergency department, clear delineation of human resources, patient identification systems, supply chain solutions, and security measures for MCIs. Given limited resources, protocol components are all low-cost or cost-neutral. Unique adaptations include the use of 1) social messaging for communication, 2) mass casualty carts for rapid deployment of supplies, and 3) stickers for patient identification, templated orders, and communication between providers.

CONCLUSION

These low-cost solutions facilitate a systematic response to MCIs in a resource-limited environment and help providers focus on patient care. These interventions were well received by staff and are a potential model for other hospitals in similar settings.

Probabilistic temporal prediction of the deaths caused by traffic in Colombia. Mortality caused by traffic prediction

BACKGROUND

from probability theory and probabilistic random walk, predictions about the quantity of cases of a given phenomenon for certain year, such as epidemics of dengue, have been previously obtained with results close to 100% in precision.

OBJECTIVE

To confirm the applicability of a methodology based on probability and probabilistic random walk to predict the dynamics of deaths from road traffic injuries in Colombia for 2010.

METHODOLOGY

through the development of a total probability space that analyses the probabilistic behaviour of augments and decreases observed in the variation of the lengths of the death rates caused by traffic in Colombia from 2004 to 2009, the most likely event for 2010 was established for predicting the rate of deaths for that year.

RESULTS

The predicted rate of deaths caused by traffic injuries in Colombia for 2010 was 14.88 with the methodology. When this value is compared with the value reported by national statistics, which was a rate of 12.9, a precision of 86.6% with the prediction was achieved.

CONCLUSIONS

the applicability of the developed methodology to predict the dynamic behaviour of deaths caused by traffic injuries in Colombia for 2010 by means of a probabilistic random walk was confirmed with a good precision, suggesting that this methodology could be useful to verify the efficacy of national road safety strategies implemented to reduce mortality rates.

Road Safety in Low-Income Countries: State of Knowledge and Future Directions

Road safety in low-income countries (LICs) remains a major concern. Given the expected increase in traffic exposure due to the relatively rapid motorisation of transport in LICs, it is imperative to better understand the underlying mechanisms of road safety. This in turn will allow for planning cost-effective road safety improvement programs in a timely manner. With the general aim of improving road safety in LICs, this paper discusses the state of knowledge and proposes a number of future research directions developed from literature reviews and expert elicitation. Our study takes a holistic approach based on the Safe Systems framework and the framework for the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety. We focused mostly on examining the problem from traffic engineering and safety policy standpoints, but also touched upon other sectors, including public health and social sciences. We identified ten focus areas relating to (i) under-reporting; (ii) global best practices; (iii) vulnerable groups; (iv) disabilities; (v) road crash costing; (vi) vehicle safety; (vii) proactive approaches; (viii) data challenges; (ix) social/behavioural aspects; and (x) capacity building. Based on our findings, future research ought to focus on improvement of data systems, understanding the impact of and addressing non-fatal injuries, improving estimates on the economic burden, implementation research to scale up programs and transfer learnings, as well as capacity development. Our recommendations, which relate to both empirical and methodological frontiers, would lead to noteworthy improvements in the way road safety data collection and research is conducted in the context of LICs.

Errors in accident data, its types, causes and methods of rectification-analysis of the literature

Most of the decisions taken to improve road safety are based on accident data, which makes it the back bone of any country's road safety system. Errors in this data will lead to misidentification of black spots and hazardous road segments, projection of false estimates pertinent to accidents and fatality rates, and detection of wrong parameters responsible for accident occurrence, thereby making the entire road safety exercise ineffective. Its extent varies from country to country depending upon various factors. Knowing the type of error in the accident data and the factors causing it enables the application of the correct method for its rectification. Therefore there is a need for a systematic literature review that addresses the topic at a global level. This paper fulfils the above research gap by providing a synthesis of literature for the different types of errors found in the accident data of 46 countries across the six regions of the world. The errors are classified and discussed with respect to each type and analysed with respect to income level; assessment with regard to the magnitude for each type is provided; followed by the different causes that result in their occurrence, and the various methods used to address each type of error. Among high-income countries the extent of error in reporting slight, severe, non-fatal and fatal injury accidents varied between 39-82%, 16-52%, 12-84%, and 0-31% respectively. For middle-income countries the error for the same categories varied between 93-98%, 32.5-96%, 34-99% and 0.5-89.5% respectively. The only four studies available for low-income countries showed that the error in reporting non-fatal and fatal accidents varied between 69-80% and 0-61% respectively. The logistic relation of error in accident data reporting, dichotomised at 50%, indicated that as the income level of a country increases the probability of having less error in accident data also increases. Average error in recording information related to the variables in the categories of location, victim's information, vehicle's information, and environment was 27%, 37%, 16% and 19% respectively. Among the causes identified for errors in accident data reporting, Policing System was found to be the most important. Overall 26 causes of errors in accident data were discussed out of which 12 were related to reporting and 14 were related to recording. "Capture-Recapture" was the most widely used method among the 11 different methods: that can be used for the rectification of under-reporting. There were 12 studies pertinent to the rectification of accident location and almost all of them utilised a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform coupled with a matching algorithm to estimate the correct location. It is recommended that the policing system should be reformed and public awareness should be created to help reduce errors in accident data.

Establishment of trauma registry at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH), Blantyre, Malawi and mapping of high risk geographic areas for trauma

BACKGROUND

Less attention is directed toward gaining a better understanding of the burden and prevention of injuries, in low and middle income countries (LMICs). We report the establishment of a trauma registry at the Adult Emergency and Trauma Centre (AETC) at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH) in Blantyre, Malawi and identify high risk geographic areas.

METHODS

We devised a paper based two-page trauma registry form. Ten data clerks and all AETC clinicians were trained to complete demographic and clinical details respectively. Descriptive data, regression and hotspot analyses were done using STATA 15 statistical package and ArcGIS (16) software respectively.

RESULTS

There were 3,747 patients from May 2013 to May 2015. The most common mechanisms of injury were assault (38.2%), and road traffic injuries (31.6%). The majority had soft tissue injury (53.1%), while 23.8% had no diagnosis indicated. Fractures (OR 19.94 [15.34-25.93]), head injury and internal organ injury (OR 29.5 [16.29-53.4]), and use of ambulance (OR 1.57 [1.06-2.33]) were found to be predictive of increased odds of being admitted to hospital while assault (OR 0.69 [0.52-0.91]) was found to be associated with less odds of being admitted to hospital. Hot spot analysis showed that at 99% confidence interval, Ndirande, Mbayani and Limbe were the top hot spots for injury occurrence.

CONCLUSION

We have described the process of establishing an integrated and potentially sustainable trauma registry. Significant data were captured to provide details on the epidemiology of trauma and insight on how care could be improved at AETC and surrounding health facilities. This approach may be relevant in similar poor resource settings.

Technological solutions for an effective health surveillance system for road traffic crashes in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

In the early 2000s, electronic surveillance systems began to be developed to collect and transmit data on infectious diseases in low-income countries (LICs) in real-time using mobile technologies. Such surveillance systems, however, are still very rare in Africa. Among the non-infectious epidemics to be surveilled are road traffic injuries, which constitute major health events and are the fifth leading cause of mortality in Africa. This situation also prevails in Burkina Faso, whose capital city, Ouagadougou, is much afflicted by this burden. There is no surveillance system, but there have been occasional surveys, and media reports of fatal crashes are numerous and increasing in frequency.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this article is to present the methodology and implementation of, and quality of results produced by, a prototype of a road traffic crash and trauma surveillance system in the city of Ouagadougou.

METHODS

A surveillance system was deployed in partnership with the National Police over a six-month period, from February to July 2015, across the entire city of Ouagadougou. Data were collected by all seven units of the city's National Police road crash intervention service. They were equipped with geotracers that geolocalized the crash sites and sent their positions by SMS (short message service) to a surveillance platform developed using the open-source tool Ushahidi. Descriptive statistical analyses and spatial analyses (kernel density) were subsequently performed on the data collected.

RESULTS

The process of data collection by police officers functioned well. Researchers were able to validate the data collection on road crashes by comparing the number of entries in the platform against the number of reports completed by the crash intervention teams. In total, 873 crash scenes were recorded over 3 months. The system was accessible on the Internet for open consultation of the map of crash sites. Crash-concentration analyses were produced that identified 'hot spots' in the city. Nearly 80% of crashes involved two-wheeled vehicles. Crashes were more numerous at night and during rush hours. They occurred primarily at intersections with traffic lights. With regard to health impacts, half of the injured were under the age of 29 years, and 6 persons were killed.

CONCLUSIONS

This pilot study demonstrated the feasibility of developing simple surveillance systems, based on mHealth, in LICs.

Estimating road traffic injuries in Jinja district, Uganda, using the capture-recapture method

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are commonly under-reported in low-and-medium-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the number of RTIs and determine the magnitude of under-reporting by traffic police and hospital registries. A two-source capture-recapture method was applied to RTI data from police and hospital registries. Seven matching variables; sex of the injured, date, place, time, day of crash and road user type were used to get the matched cases. Police independently reported 46 RTIs and the hospitals reported 206 RTIs. Using the capture-recapture analysis, both sources estimated 313 RTIs (95% CI 273-343). The police registry captured 14.4% of the estimated number of RTIs and the hospitals captured 60.4%. The estimated number of RTIs was higher than reported by either the police or the hospitals alone. Neither the police nor the hospitals provided accurate data on RTIs, calling for the strengthening of both sources of data.

A problem of the safety of vulnerable road users in Montenegro

Research on the safety of vulnerable road users in Montenegro and in the European Union found that pedestrian fatality rates are the highest, followed by motorcyclists, and then cyclists. In the European Union, fatality rates are decreasing for all groups of vulnerable road users, while in Montenegro the fatality rate of pedestrians and cyclists is decreasing. The safety improvement for vulnerable road users is less successful than that for people in vehicles. Pedestrians in Montenegro are at the highest risk in the European Union. In Montenegro, pedestrians and cyclists are most vulnerable on the streets in the most developed settlements, while moped riders and motorcyclists are most vulnerable on the main roads. The implementation of control measures led to a turning point, and further improvement was obtained after implementing safety campaigns; for greater improvements, it will be necessary to establish local institutions for traffic safety management.

Global road fatality trends' estimations based on country-wise micro level data

The global road crash deaths during the past 35 years are estimated and analysed considering micro-level data for 215 countries. The data were gathered from Governmental records, international databases, and personal contacts. The data are adjusted for underreporting, death definition differences and missing data. The study models both reported and adjusted death to forecast future crash trends for each continent. The developed models employed curve fitting regression technique. It took over five years to build-up the database. The global sum of crash deaths showed firm increasing trends between 1980 and 2008. Subsequently, the global deaths tend to slow down. The adjusted death during 2014 ranged between 792,000 and 905,000. The high range showed 40% lesser death than World Health Organization (WHO) estimate. The developed models presented a plateauing transition stage of global road deaths before descending. This is contradicting WHO and The World Bank (TWB) forecasts. The global adjusted death for 2020 and 2030, differed substantially from WHO and TWB forecasts. The results showed inconsistencies in road deaths between various WHO sectors. The trend of crash fatalities in Asia followed closely with that for global trend, and that in Africa it showed fluctuated trend with steep increasing tendency after 1999. In South America, it showed continuous ascending trends, and that in Europe and Oceanic countries showed clear descending patterns. The trend in North and Central America did not change much during the period between 1980 and 2007. While the developed models indicated drops of 33% in North and Central America, 18% in Oceania and 13% in Asia by 2025 compared with 2014, they increase by over 44% in Africa and 32% in South America. The poor safety records in several continents, require careful reading, proper interpretation of the results and extensive research.

Fatal and non-fatal injury outcomes: results from a purposively sampled census of seven rural subdistricts in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

90% of the global burden of injuries is borne by low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, details of the injury burden in LMICs are less clear because of the scarcity of data and population-based studies. The Saving of Lives from Drowning project, implemented in rural Bangladesh, did a census on 1·2 million people to fill this gap. This Article describes the epidemiology of fatal and non-fatal injuries from the study.

METHODS

In this study, we used data from the baseline census conducted as part of the Saving of Lives from Drowning (SoLiD) project. The census was implemented in 51 unions from seven purposively sampled rural subdistricts of Bangladesh between June and November, 2013. Sociodemographic, injury mortality, and morbidity information were collected for the whole population in the study area. We analysed the data for descriptive measures of fatal and non-fatal injury outcomes. Age and gender distribution, socioeconomic characteristics, and injury characteristics such as external cause, intent, location, and body part affected were reported for all injury outcomes.

FINDINGS

The census covered a population of 1 169 593 from 270 387 households and 451 villages. The overall injury mortality rate was 38 deaths per 100 000 population per year, and 104 703 people sustained major non-fatal injuries over a 6-month recall period. Drowning was the leading external cause of injury death for all ages, and falls caused the most number of non-fatal injuries. Fatal injury rates were highest in children aged 1-4 years. Non-fatal injury rates were also highest in children aged 1-4 years and those aged 65 years and older. Males had more fatal and non-fatal injuries than females across all external causes except for burns. Suicide was the leading cause of injury deaths in individuals aged 15-24 years, and more than 50% of the suicides occurred in females. The home environment was the most common location for most injuries.

INTERPRETATION

The burden of fatal and non-fatal injuries in rural Bangladesh is substantial, accounting for 44 050 deaths and 21 million people suffering major events annually. Targeted approaches addressing drowning in children (especially those aged 1-4 years), falls among the elderly, and suicide among young female adults are urgently needed to reduce injury deaths and morbidity in Bangladesh.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Road traffic injury in sub-Saharan African countries: A systematic review and summary of observational studies

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to evaluate, through a systematic review of hospital-based studies, the proportion of road traffic injuries and fatalities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

METHODS

In accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines, we searched the following electronic databases: PubMed, Embase, Africa-Wide Information, Global Health, and Web of Science. Articles were eligible if they measured proportion of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in SSA by using hospital-based studies. In addition, a reference and citation analysis was conducted as well as a data quality assessment.

RESULTS

Up to 2015, there were a total of 83 hospital-based epidemiologic studies, including 310,660 trauma patients and 99,751 RTI cases, in 13 SSA countries. The median proportion of RTIs among trauma patients was 32% (4 to 91%), of which the median proportion of death for the included articles was 5% (0.3 to 41%).

CONCLUSION

The number of studies evaluating RTI proportions and fatalities in SSA countries is increasing but without the exponential rise expected from World Health Organization calls for research during the Decade of Action for Road Traffic Injuries. Further research infrastructure including standardization of taxonomy, definitions, and data reporting measures, as well as funding, would allow for improved cross-country comparisons.

The epidemiology of road traffic injury hotspots in Kigali, Rwanda from police data

Background

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the eighth-leading cause of death worldwide, with low- and middle-income countries sharing a disproportionate number of fatalities. African countries, like Rwanda, carry a higher burden of these fatalities and with increased economic growth, these numbers are expected to rise. We aim to describe the epidemiology of RTIs in Kigali Province, Rwanda and create a hotspot map of crashes from police data.

Methods

Road traffic crash (RTC) report data from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 was collected from Kigali Traffic Police. In addition to analysis of descriptive data, locations of RTCs were mapped and analyzed through exploratory spatial data analysis to determine hotspots.

Results

A total of 2589 of RTCs were reported with 4689 total victims. The majority of victims were male (94.7 %) with an average age of 35.9 years. Cars were the most frequent vehicle involved (43.8 %), followed by motorcycles (14.5 %). Motorcycles had an increased risk of involvement in grievous crashes and pedestrians and cyclists were more likely to have grievous injuries. The hotspots identified were primarily located along the major roads crossing Kigali and the two busiest downtown areas.

Conclusions

Despite significant headway by the government in RTC prevention, there continue to be high rates of RTIs in Rwanda, specifically with young males and a vulnerable road user population, such as pedestrians and motorcycle users. Improvements in police data and reporting by laypersons could prove valuable for further geographic information system analysis and efforts towards crash prevention and targeting education to motorcycle taxis could help reduce RTIs in a severely affected population.

The burden of road traffic crashes, injuries and deaths in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

To estimate the burden of road traffic injuries and deaths for all road users and among different road user groups in Africa.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Google Scholar, websites of African road safety agencies and organizations for registry- and population-based studies and reports on road traffic injury and death estimates in Africa, published between 1980 and 2015. Available data for all road users and by road user group were extracted and analysed. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis and estimated pooled rates of road traffic injuries and deaths.

Findings

We identified 39 studies from 15 African countries. The estimated pooled rate for road traffic injury was 65.2 per 100 000 population (95% confidence interval, CI: 60.8–69.5) and the death rate was 16.6 per 100 000 population (95% CI: 15.2–18.0). Road traffic injury rates increased from 40.7 per 100 000 population in the 1990s to 92.9 per 100 000 population between 2010 and 2015, while death rates decreased from 19.9 per 100 000 population in the 1990s to 9.3 per 100 000 population between 2010 and 2015. The highest road traffic death rate was among motorized four-wheeler occupants at 5.9 per 100 000 population (95% CI: 4.4–7.4), closely followed by pedestrians at 3.4 per 100 000 population (95% CI: 2.5–4.2).

Conclusion

The burden of road traffic injury and death is high in Africa. Since registry-based reports underestimate the burden, a systematic collation of road traffic injury and death data is needed to determine the true burden.

Examining Road Traffic Mortality Status in China: A Simulation Study

Background

Data from the Chinese police service suggest substantial reductions in road traffic injuries since 2002, but critics have questioned the accuracy of those data, especially considering conflicting data reported by the health department.

Methods

To address the gap between police and health department data and to determine which may be more accurate, we conducted a simulation study based on the modified Smeed equation, which delineates a non-linear relation between road traffic mortality and the level of motorization in a country or region. Our goal was to simulate trends in road traffic mortality in China and compare performances in road traffic safety management between China and 13 other countries.

Results

Chinese police data indicate a peak in road traffic mortalities in 2002 and a significant and a gradual decrease in population-based road traffic mortality since 2002. Health department data show the road traffic mortality peaked in 2012. In addition, police data suggest China’s road traffic mortality peaked at a much lower motorization level (0.061 motor vehicles per person) in 2002, followed by a reduction in mortality to a level comparable to that of developed countries. Simulation results based on health department data suggest high road traffic mortality, with a mortality peak in 2012 at a moderate motorization level (0.174 motor vehicles per person). Comparisons to the other 13 countries suggest the health data from China may be more valid than the police data.

Conclusion

Our simulation data indicate China is still at a stage of high road traffic mortality, as suggested by health data, rather than a stage of low road traffic mortality, as suggested by police data. More efforts are needed to integrate safety into road design, improve road traffic management, improve data quality, and alter unsafe behaviors of pedestrians, drivers and passengers in China.

Evidence-Based Plastic Surgery: Its Rise, Importance, and a Practical Guide

There is a perfect storm developing in 21st century healthcare; rising complexity and patient expectations in the context of fiscal restraint. Evidence-based medicine (EBM) may be the best-kept secret in dealing with the "storm." Such an approach prefers management pathways that deliver better outcomes at less relative cost. In this article, the rise of EBM, its significance, a guide to practicing it, and its future in the field of plastic, reconstructive, and aesthetic surgery are presented.

Mortality and Morbidity of Urban Road Traffic Crashes in Africa: Capture-Recapture Estimates in Bamako, Mali, 2012

Background

Low- and middle-income countries are currently facing the massive public health challenge of road traffic injuries. The lack of effective surveillance systems hinders proper assessment of epidemiologic status and intervention priorities. The objective of our study was to estimate the mortality and morbidity attributable to road crashes in Bamako, Mali using the capture-recapture method.

Methods

During the 1 January, 2012–31 April, 2012 period, we collected data on road traffic crashes from the road accident registers of the police forces of Bamako, Mali on the one hand, and from a register kept by health facilities in the same area. An automatic, then manual matching procedure was performed to find pairs of records related to the same crash victims. The number of victims and the number of fatalities were estimated by the capture-recapture method using the Chapman estimator.

Results

The health facility and the police registries included 3587 and 1432 records, respectively. The matching procedure identified 603 common records, 31 of which were fatalities. The annual incidence estimate for road victims was 1038 in 100 000 and the annual incidence estimate for road fatalities was 12 in 100 000. Victims from both sources were more likely to be male, in the 15–34 age group, and almost half of all injured road users and two in three fatalities were using motorized two-wheelers. One victim out of five was a pedestrian.

Conclusion

Our estimates are in line with available literature data from low-income countries. While more cases were reported by health facilities than by police forces, we believe that an effective surveillance system should not be based solely on medical reports as much would be missing as regards the crash circumstances and characteristics.

Disparities in road crash mortality among pedestrians using wheelchairs in the USA: results of a capture-recapture analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to quantify and describe the burden of fatal pedestrian crashes among persons using wheelchairs in the USA from 2006 to 2012.

DESIGN

The occurrence of fatal pedestrian crashes among pedestrians using wheelchairs was assessed using two-source capture-recapture. Descriptive analysis of fatal crashes was conducted using customary approaches.

SETTING

Two registries were constructed, both of which likely undercounted fatalities among pedestrians who use wheelchairs. The first used data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, and the second used a LexisNexis news search.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Mortality rate (per 100 000 person-years) and crash-level, driver-level and pedestrian-level characteristics of fatal crashes.

RESULTS

This study found that, from 2006 to 2012, the mortality rate for pedestrians using wheelchairs was 2.07/100 000 person-years (95% CI 1.60 to 2.54), which was 36% higher than the overall population pedestrian mortality rate (p=0.02). Men's risk was over fivefold higher than women's risk (p<0.001). Compared to the overall population, persons aged 50-64 using wheelchairs had a 38% increased risk (p=0.04), and men who use wheelchairs aged 50-64 had a 75% increased risk over men of the same age in the overall population (p=0.006). Almost half (47.6%; 95% CI 42.8 to 52.5) of fatal crashes occurred in intersections and 38.7% (95% CI 32.0 to 45.0) of intersection crashes occurred at locations without traffic control devices. Among intersection crashes, 47.5% (95% CI 40.6 to 54.5) involved wheelchair users in a crosswalk; no crosswalk was available for 18.3% (95% CI 13.5 to 24.4). Driver failure to yield right-of-way was noted in 21.4% (95% CI 17.7 to 25.7) of crashes, and no crash avoidance manoeuvers were detected in 76.4% (95% CI 71.0 to 81.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Persons who use wheelchairs experience substantial pedestrian mortality disparities calling for behavioural and built environment interventions.

Patterns and risk factors for deaths from external causes in rural Malawi over 10 years: a prospective population-based study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the pattern or risk factors for deaths from external causes in sub-Saharan Africa: there is a lack of reliable data, and public health priorities have been focussed on other causes. This study assessed the prevalence and risk factor for deaths from external causes in rural Malawi.

METHODS

We analysed data from 2002-2012 from the Karonga demographic surveillance site which covers ~35,000 people in rural northern Malawi. Verbal autopsies with clinician coding are used to assign cause of death. Repeated annual surveys capture data on socio-economic factors. Using Poisson regression models we calculated age, sex and cause-specific rates and rate ratios of external deaths. We used a nested case-control study, matched on age, sex and time period, to investigate risk factors for these deaths, using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

In 315,580 person years at risk (pyar) there were 2673 deaths, including 143 from external causes. The mortality rate from external causes was 47.1/100,000 pyar (95 % CI 32.5-68.2) among under-fives; 20.1/100,000 pyar (95 % CI 13.1-32.2) among 5-14 year olds; 46.3/100,000 pyar (95 % CI 35.8-59.9) among 15-44 year olds; and 98.7/100,000 pyar (95 % CI 71.8-135.7) among those aged ≥45 years. Drowning (including four deaths in people with epilepsy), road injury and suicide were the leading external causes. Adult males had the highest rates (100.7/100,000 pyar), compared to 21.8/100,000pyar in adult females, and the rate continued to increase with increasing age in men. Alcohol contributed to 21 deaths, all in adult males. Children had high rates of drowning (9.2/100,000 pyar, 95 % CI 5.5-15.6) but low rates of road injury (2.6/100,000 pyar, 95 % CI 1.0-7.0). Among 5-14 year olds, attending school was associated with fewer deaths from external causes than among those who had never attended school (adjusted OR 0.15, 95 % CI 0.08-0.81). Fishermen had increased risks of death from drowning and suicide compared to farmers.

DISCUSSION

In this population the rate of deaths from external causes was lowest at age 5-14 years. Adult males had the highest rate of death from external causes, 5 times the rate in adult females. Drowning, road injury and suicide were the leading causes of death; alcohol consumption contributed to more than one quarter of the deaths in men

CONCLUSIONS

The high proportion of alcohol-related deaths in men, the predominance of drowning, deaths linked to uncontrolled epilepsy, and the possible protective effect of school attendance suggest areas for intervention.

Economic development and road traffic fatalities in Russia: analysis of federal regions 2004-2011

Background

The relationship between economic development and road safety at sub-national level has not been well established. This study aims to assess the relationships between economic growth (measured by gross regional product (GRP)) and road traffic fatalities (RTFs) and crash fatality ratio (CFR) at sub-national level in Russia.

Methods

We used published secondary data on annual RTFs and CFR obtained from the traffic police and socioeconomic development indicators from the statistics department for each Russian federal region (referred to in Russia as “subject”) for 2004–2011. We used multivariate fixed effects models for longitudinal data to examine the GRP-RTF and the GRP-CFR relationships excluding regions with extreme values. Time (in years) and a set of relevant socioeconomic variables (territory, population, number of privately owned cars, number of public buses, length of public motor roads, number of physicians, and budget expenditure on health care and physical wellness) were also included as covariates in the models.

Results

The RTF rates decreased monotonically over time as GRP per capita increased in 66 studied regions during 2004–2011. This relationship was mainly explained by the number of privately owned cars and partially explained by year dummy variables, number of buses, and number of physicians. CFR also decreased monotonically as GRP per capita increased in 67 studied regions. This relationship between economic growth and CFR was fully explained by secular time trends. The year dummy effects on CFR were not mediated by other socioeconomic variables included in the study.

Conclusions

For the period of 2004–2011 in Russia, the reduction in RTFs is mostly explained by increasing the number of private cars, while the reduction of CFR is mostly associated with year-effects suggesting a process of diffusion of knowledge, which is not solely dominated by economic growth.

Alcohol consumption among drivers in Curitiba, Brazil

INTRODUCTION

The combination of drinking and driving is globally understood as a risk factor for road traffic crashes and disastrous outcomes such as injury and disability or death. However, the magnitude of the problem may not always be known in many countries, particularly where there are legislative loopholes. In Brazil, until December 2012, verification by breathalyzer of drinking and driving was dependent on drivers' acceptance of the tests after being stopped by the police.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiological profile of drinking and driving behaviors of a sample of drivers from Curitiba, Brazil, and explore the sociodemographic characteristics of those interviewed at police sobriety checkpoints.

METHODS

Drivers were selected and interviewed at police checkpoints on public roads in Curitiba. The local police, after informed consent, applied breathalyzer tests to check the drivers' blood alcohol content and the results were compared with data previously collected through interviews containing self-reports of drinking and driving. Data were collected between March and November 2012.

RESULTS

Of the 511 drivers asked to participate in the study, 398 (77.9%) agreed to give a roadside interview. Most respondents were single men between the ages of 18 and 29 years, with 8.3% of interviewed drivers self-reporting alcohol consumption in the last 6 h before driving. On the other hand, only 46.2% of the whole sample accepted the breathalyzer testing. Among those breathalyzed by the police, 2.7% tested positive for alcohol.

DISCUSSION

This study, conducted on public roads in Curitiba, shows a noticeable proportion of drivers voluntarily self-reporting drinking and driving. However, a smaller percentage was confirmed to have positive blood alcohol content, likely due to the high breathalyzer refusal rate.

Road traffic deaths and injuries are under-reported in Ethiopia: a capture-recapture method

In low and middle income countries road traffic injuries are commonly under-reported. This problem is significantly higher among those less severely injured road users. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence and the level of ascertainment of road traffic injuries and deaths by traffic police and hospital registry. In this study two-sample capture-recapture method was applied using data from traffic police and hospital injury surveillance, through June 2012 to May 2013. The study was conducted on one of the busiest highways in Ethiopia, the Addis Ababa – Hawassa highway. Primary data were collected by accident investigators and hospital emergency nurses using a structured checklist. Four matching variables; name of the victim, sex, place and time of the accidents was used to get the matched cases. During the study period the police independently reported 224 deaths and 446 injuries/billion vehicle kilometer while hospitals reported 123 deaths and 1,046 injuries/billion vehicle kilometer. Both sources in common captured 73 deaths and 248 injuries/billion vehicle kilometer. Taking the two data sources into consideration, the capture-recapture model estimated the incidence of deaths and injuries ranged 368–390 and 1,869–1,895 per billion vehicle kilometer, respectively. The police source captured 57.4%–60.9% of deaths and 23.5%–23.9% of injuries while the hospital sources captured 31.5%–33.4% of deaths and 55.2%–56% of injuries. Deaths and injuries among females, younger age victims, cyclists/motorcyclists and pedestrians were under-reported by traffic police. In conclusion neither of the two sources independently provided accurate coverage of road traffic incident related deaths and injuries. Strengthening both systems is necessary to obtain accurate information on road accidents and human causalities.

Validating a verbal autopsy tool to assess pre-hospital trauma mortality burden in a resource-poor setting

OBJECTIVES

To present the validation of a verbal autopsy (VA) tool using inpatient deaths in order to ultimately assess the burden of adult pre-hospital trauma mortality in Lilongwe, Malawi.

METHODS

A WHO VA tool was administered at the Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH) morgue in Lilongwe to family members of inpatient deceased. Two physicians assigned cause of death as 'trauma' or 'non-trauma' as well as a standard VA cause of death based on the VA tool. These assignments were compared to the 'gold standard' of physician review of hospital records using a kappa statistic.

RESULTS

The VA method had near-perfect agreement with the hospital record in determining 'trauma' vs. 'non-trauma'. There was moderate agreement when comparing types of death, for example cardiovascular vs. infectious disease, and limited agreement when comparing specific causes of death.

CONCLUSION

This VA tool can accurately ascertain trauma-related mortality with almost perfect agreement. The next step is to assess pre-hospital trauma mortality burden using the VA tool to determine whether hospital records underestimate the burden of trauma in the community.

Retrospective analysis of mortalities in a tertiary care hospital in Northeast Ethiopia

Background

Mortalities in the health care set up are prevalent, and causes are multifactorial with variations from area to area and also from ward to ward in the same health care set up. Analysis of mortalities and its causes in Ethiopian hospitals including Dessie Referral Hospital is not adequately known. Thus, the aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of mortalities and its causes in the Dessie Referral Hospital, Northeast Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of mortalities during a three year period (September 2010–2012) was conducted in the Dessie Referral Hospital from August-September, 2012. All in hospital mortalities in the hospital during the last three years were included in the study. Data were collected from patient discharge recording books. Finally, data were entered into SPSS windows version 16.0 and descriptive statistics were generated to meet the study objective.

Results

During the last 3 years there were 1,481 (4.8%) mortalities in the hospital. Around 60.0% of the mortalities were among male patients, and two third of the mortalities were among patients aged 15 years or older. The majority of the mortalities (38.9%) were in the medical ward followed by pediatric (34.6%) and surgical (18.2%) wards. Most of the mortalities (34.8%) occurred during 2011 while least was in 2012 (31.8%). HIV/AIDS (14.8%), pneumonia (9.9%), and sepsis/shock (7.6%) were the three most common causes of mortality in the hospital during the three year period. On average, patients stayed for 2.86 (±2. 99) days in the wards before mortality.

Conclusion

Mortalities in the wards of the Dessie Referral Hospital were high and the causes were mainly of infectious origin, HIV/AIDS and its complications being the most common causes. This calls for an integrated effort to reduce in hospital mortalities by equipping the hospital and its health care providers with the skills and medical supplies required for proper management of the most common causes of in hospital mortality reported in this study.

Bicyclist mortality between 2006 and 2010 in China: findings from national Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) data

CONTEXT

While road traffic mortality has been reported to be seriously undercounted by the police in China, non-police-reported data have not been explored previously to examine vulnerable road user mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To examine changes in bicyclist mortality between 2006 and 2010 in China, using the Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) data of China.

DESIGN, SETTING AND DATA SOURCE

Mortality data of 2006-2010 from DSP data, covering 73 million population, was analysed. Poisson regression was used to examine the significance of year after controlling for sex, age and urban/rural location.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Mortality rate and mortality rate ratio (MRR).

RESULTS

Between 2006 and 2010, the mortality rate for bicyclists increased from 1.1 to 1.6 per 100 000 population according to DSP data. Between 2006 and 2010, more than 90% of bicyclist deaths were undercounted by the police compared to the findings from DSP data. Contrary to the 34% increase between 2006 and 2010 reflected by DSP data (adjusted MRR: 1.34, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.46), police data revealed a 64% decrease in bicyclist mortality (unadjusted MRR: 0.36, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.40) in the study time period.

CONCLUSIONS

Health data should be used to assess the road traffic injuries in China. The recent increase in bicyclist mortality merits attention from policy makers and researchers.