Eco-label conveys reliable information on fish stock health to seafood consumers

Strengths and weaknesses of food eco-labeling: a review

Food labeling is increasingly expanding and adding more information to the food package. There is strong evidence about nutrition labeling effectiveness in driving food choice, especially if displayed in the front of package (FoP). Despite the growing attention to nutrition and sustainable diets, few countries have implemented sustainable labels or eco-labels that could address economic, social and/or environmental concerns. Implementing new techniques of eco-labeling emerges as a consumer-focused solution. However, evidence of the effectiveness of eco-labeling in driving consumers' choices is heterogeneous and not univocal. Thus, this review aims to summarize the evidence about the effectiveness of FoP eco-labeling in driving food choice and provide a reference framework of the eco-labeling initiatives relative to food package labeling. This narrative review addresses both the potential benefits as well as the main concerns that arise from the use of eco-labels. Although eco-labeling seems to provide a series of sustainability benefits for producers and consumers, the implementation of such policies should take into consideration potential trade-offs and inter-sectorial coordination to obtain bigger impacts, assuming that a policy itself cannot transform the whole food system. Eco-labeling could be encouraged and implemented within a set of policies shaping sustainable food systems.

Public awareness of seafood mislabeling

A substantial portion of seafood is mislabeled, causing significant impacts to human health, the environment, the economy, and society. Despite the large scientific literature documenting seafood mislabeling the public's awareness of seafood mislabeling is unknown. We conducted an online survey to assess the public's awareness and perceptions of seafood mislabeling. Of the 1,216 respondents, 38% had never heard of seafood mislabeling and 49% were only 'vaguely familiar' with it. After being provided the definition of seafood mislabeling 95% had some degree of concern. Respondents were the most concerned about environmental impacts caused by seafood mislabeling and the least concerned about the social justice implications. Respondents who were also more concerned and familiar with seafood mislabeling stated that they would be more likely to purchase seafood from a vendor where the labeling was independently verified.

Determination of the geographical origin of Trachinotus ovatus and Pampus argenteus in China by multi-element and stable isotope analysis

This study aimed to determine whether Trachinotus ovatus and Pampus argenteus could be differentiated by multi-element composition or stable isotope ratio analysis of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N. The multi-element analysis values of a total of 60 Pampus argenteus samples from three sites and 60 Trachinotus ovatus samples from four sites around China were determined, and the other 60 samples of Pampus argenteus and 51 samples of Trachinotus ovatus were tested by principal component analysis (PCA) to estimate the accuracy of origin identification. The results showed that the cross-validation accuracy rate is 92.2% for the Pampus argenteus and 98.3% for the Trachinotus ovatus. Stable isotope analysis of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N also can distinguish Trachinotus ovatus from different geographical origins. These results showed that the usefulness of multi-element and stable isotope analysis as indicators for authenticating the geographical origin of two pomfrets in China.

The future of ocean governance

Ocean governance is complex and influenced by multiple drivers and actors with different worldviews and goals. While governance encompasses many elements, in this paper we focus on the processes that operate within and between states, civil society and local communities, and the market, including industry. Specifically, in this paper, we address the question of how to move towards more sustainable ocean governance aligning with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the UN Ocean Decade. We address three major risks to oceans that arise from governance-related issues: (1) the impacts of the overexploitation of marine resources; (2) inequitable distribution of access to and benefits from marine ecosystem services, and (3) inadequate or inappropriate adaptation to changing ocean conditions. The SDGs have been used as an underlying framework to develop these risks. We identify five drivers that may determine how ocean governance evolves, namely formal rules and institutions, evidence and knowledge-based decision-making, legitimacy of decision-making institutions, stakeholder engagement and participation, and empowering communities. These drivers were used to define two alternative futures by 2030: (a) 'Business as Usual'-a continuation of current trajectories and (b) 'More Sustainable Future'-optimistic, transformational, but technically achievable. We then identify what actions, as structured processes, can reduce the three major governance-related risks and lead to the More Sustainable Future. These actions relate to the process of co-creation and implementation of improved, comprehensive, and integrated management plans, enhancement of decision-making processes, and better anticipation and consideration of ambiguity and uncertainty.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version of this article (10.1007/s11160-020-09631-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The future of ocean governance

Ocean governance is complex and influenced by multiple drivers and actors with different worldviews and goals. While governance encompasses many elements, in this paper we focus on the processes that operate within and between states, civil society and local communities, and the market, including industry. Specifically, in this paper, we address the question of how to move towards more sustainable ocean governance aligning with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the UN Ocean Decade. We address three major risks to oceans that arise from governance-related issues: (1) the impacts of the overexploitation of marine resources; (2) inequitable distribution of access to and benefits from marine ecosystem services, and (3) inadequate or inappropriate adaptation to changing ocean conditions. The SDGs have been used as an underlying framework to develop these risks. We identify five drivers that may determine how ocean governance evolves, namely formal rules and institutions, evidence and knowledge-based decision-making, legitimacy of decision-making institutions, stakeholder engagement and participation, and empowering communities. These drivers were used to define two alternative futures by 2030: (a) 'Business as Usual'-a continuation of current trajectories and (b) 'More Sustainable Future'-optimistic, transformational, but technically achievable. We then identify what actions, as structured processes, can reduce the three major governance-related risks and lead to the More Sustainable Future. These actions relate to the process of co-creation and implementation of improved, comprehensive, and integrated management plans, enhancement of decision-making processes, and better anticipation and consideration of ambiguity and uncertainty.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version of this article (10.1007/s11160-020-09631-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ecolabeled seafood and sustainable consumption in the Canadian context: issues and insights from a survey of seafood consumers

The concept of sustainable consumption is a much debated practice that has been seen as an outcome of the emergence of ecological citizenship-a concept that brings together the citizen and the environment in a framework that is underlined by social justice considerations and incorporates a vision of citizenship that involves both the private sphere and the public sphere of human activity. This study examines Canadian consumer awareness and uptake of certified sustainable seafood. We introduce the concepts ecological citizenship and sustainable consumption as a way of framing our research. Seafood ecolabels may be a valuable tool in translating general environmental concern about the marine environment into more sustainable fisheries practices. We conducted an on-site consumer survey in the Greater Toronto Area and a nearby city. Our findings showed that in contrast to high levels of awareness of the importance of the marine environment and the sustainability of seafood, consumers had a limited understanding about the meaning of sustainability in the case of seafood, and little knowledge about actual ecolabels found in the Canadian marketplace. Attitudes towards the marine environment and sustainable seafood, understanding of the meaning of seafood sustainability, and purchasing behaviors of sustainable seafood were significantly different by some socio-demographic characteristics. Positive attitudes towards the marine environment and sustainable seafood and better understanding of seafood sustainability were significantly associated with the increased purchasing of ecolabeled seafood. Lack of understanding of ecolabels, limited information about product sustainability, and lack of in-store guidance were identified as key barriers to purchasing ecolabeled seafood products.

Environmental performance of blue foods

Fish and other aquatic foods (blue foods) present an opportunity for more sustainable diets^1,2. Yet comprehensive comparison has been limited due to sparse inclusion of blue foods in environmental impact studies^3,4 relative to the vast diversity of production⁵. Here we provide standardized estimates of greenhouse gas, nitrogen, phosphorus, freshwater and land stressors for species groups covering nearly three quarters of global production. We find that across all blue foods, farmed bivalves and seaweeds generate the lowest stressors. Capture fisheries predominantly generate greenhouse gas emissions, with small pelagic fishes generating lower emissions than all fed aquaculture, but flatfish and crustaceans generating the highest. Among farmed finfish and crustaceans, silver and bighead carps have the lowest greenhouse gas, nitrogen and phosphorus emissions, but highest water use, while farmed salmon and trout use the least land and water. Finally, we model intervention scenarios and find improving feed conversion ratios reduces stressors across all fed groups, increasing fish yield reduces land and water use by up to half, and optimizing gears reduces capture fishery emissions by more than half for some groups. Collectively, our analysis identifies high-performing blue foods, highlights opportunities to improve environmental performance, advances data-poor environmental assessments, and informs sustainable diets.

Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fisheries Threatening Shark Conservation in African Waters Revealed from High Levels of Shark Mislabelling in Ghana

Mislabelling of fish and fish products has attracted much attention over the last decades, following public awareness of the practice of substituting high-value with low-value fish in markets, restaurants, and processed seafood. In some cases, mislabelling includes illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, contributing to overexploit substitute species that are undetectable when sold under wrong names. This is the first study of DNA barcoding to assess the level of mislabelling in fish marketed in Ghana, focusing on endangered shark species. Genetic identification was obtained from 650 base pair sequences within the cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene. All except one of 17 shark fillets analysed were wrongly labelled as compared with none of 28 samples of small commercial pelagic fish and 14 commercial shark samples purchased in Europe. Several substitute shark species in Ghana are endangered (Carcharhinus signatus and Isurusoxyrinchus) and critically endangered (Squatina aculeata). Shark products commercialized in Europe (n = 14) did not reveal mislabelling, thus specific shark mislabelling cannot be generalized. Although based on a limited number of samples and fish markets, the results that reveal trade of endangered sharks in Ghana markets encourage Ghanaian authorities to improve controls to enforce conservation measures.

Financing a sustainable ocean economy

The ocean, which regulates climate and supports vital ecosystem services, is crucial to our Earth system and livelihoods. Yet, it is threatened by anthropogenic pressures and climate change. A healthy ocean that supports a sustainable ocean economy requires adequate financing vehicles that generate, invest, align, and account for financial capital to achieve sustained ocean health and governance. However, the current finance gap is large; we identify key barriers to financing a sustainable ocean economy and suggest how to mitigate them, to incentivize the kind of public and private investments needed for topnotch science and management in support of a sustainable ocean economy.

Actions on sustainable food production and consumption for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Current food production and consumption trends are inconsistent with the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature. Here, we examine how, and under what conditions, the post-2020 biodiversity framework can support transformative change in food systems. Our analysis of actions proposed in four science-policy fora reveals that subsidy reform, valuation, food waste reduction, sustainability standards, life cycle assessments, sustainable diets, mainstreaming biodiversity, and strengthening governance can support more sustainable food production and consumption. By considering barriers and opportunities of implementing these actions in Peru and the United Kingdom, we derive potential targets and indicators for the post-2020 biodiversity framework. For targets to support transformation, genuine political commitment, accountability and compliance, and wider enabling conditions and actions by diverse agents are needed to shift food systems onto a sustainable path.

Small is beautiful, but large is certified: A comparison between fisheries the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) features in its promotional materials and MSC-certified fisheries

The Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) sets a standard by which sustainable fisheries can be assessed and eco-certified. It is one of the oldest and most well-known fisheries certifications, and an estimated 15% of global fish catch is MSC-certified. While the MSC is increasingly recognized by decision-makers as an indicator for fishery success, it is also criticized for weak standards and overly-lenient third-party certifiers. This gap between the standard’s reputation and its actual implementation could be a result of how the MSC markets and promotes its brand. Here we classify MSC-certified fisheries by gear type (i.e. active vs. passive) as well as by length of the vessels involved (i.e. large scale vs. small scale; with the division between the two occurring at 12 m in overall length). We compared the MSC-certified fisheries (until 31 December 2017) to 399 photographs the MSC used in promotional materials since 2009. Results show that fisheries involving small-scale vessels and passive gears were disproportionately represented in promotional materials: 64% of promotional photographs were of passive gears, although only 40% of MSC-certified fisheries and 17% of the overall catch were caught by passive gears from 2009–2017. Similarly, 49% of the photographs featured small-scale vessels, although just 20% of MSC-certified fisheries and 7% of the overall MSC-certified catch used small-scale vessels from 2009 to 2017. The MSC disproportionately features photographs of small-scale fisheries although the catch it certifies is overwhelmingly from industrial fisheries.

Leverage points in the financial sector for seafood sustainability

Can finance contribute to seafood sustainability? This is an increasingly relevant question given the projected growth of seafood markets and the magnitude of social and environmental challenges associated with seafood production. As more capital enters the seafood industry, it becomes crucial that investments steer the sector toward improved sustainability, as opposed to fueling unsustainable working conditions and overexploitation of resources. Using a mixed-methods approach, we map where different financial mechanisms are most salient along a seafood firm's development trajectory and identify three leverage points that can redirect capital toward more sustainable practices: loan covenants, stock exchange listing rules, and shareholder activism. We argue that seafood sustainability requirements need to be integrated into traditional financial services and propose key research avenues for academic, policy, and practice communities. While our study focuses on the role of finance in seafood sustainability, the insights developed are also of high relevance to other extractive industries.

Who determines sustainability?

Over the past 20 years many different certification or rating schemes for sustainable fisheries have evolved, that attempt to influence consumer tastes and preferences and thereby incentivise better fisheries practices. This short review paper aims to document the history of such schemes, to consider their apparent differences and the basis upon which sustainability standards were developed. While there is some consistency between schemes in terms of the elements that should be considered as part of sustainability, and the general outcomes that sustainable fisheries should strive for, with the exception of maximum sustainable yield (MSY) there is less agreement on the specific details of how this should be measured or what reference points should be considered as sustainable. This arises from a lack of specific consideration or agreement on these issues in the international policy community.

The role of human rights in implementing socially responsible seafood

Sustainability standards for seafood mainly address environmental performance criteria and are less concerned with the welfare of fisheries workers who produce the seafood. Yet human rights violations such as slavery and human trafficking are widespread in fisheries around the world, and underscore the need for certification bodies and other seafood supply chain actors to improve social performance, in addition to addressing environmental challenges. Calls for socially responsible seafood have referenced human rights law and policy frameworks to shape the guiding principles of socially responsible seafood and to provide the legal machinery to implement these aspirations, but practical guidance on how to achieve this is lacking. To provide clarity on this challenge, we reviewed the literature concerning human rights in the seafood supply chain, and prepared an analysis of opportunities and challenges to implement socially responsible seafood through relevant human rights, legal and policy instruments. We observe that human rights laws are generally framed in favour of addressing violations of civil and political rights, but there remains considerable scope for applying economic, social and cultural (ESC) rights in this context. Other challenges include weakly defined ESC rights infringements, a lack of straightforward mechanisms to enforce human rights entitlements, and practical difficulties such as resources to support and secure rights. On the positive side, governments can draw on international instruments to inspire national policies and legislation to eliminate illegalities from the seafood supply chain. However, for socially responsible seafood principles to translate into tangible actions, these objectives must be rooted in clear legal obligations and be supported by sufficient national capacity and political will.

Establishing company level fishing revenue and profit losses from fisheries: A bottom-up approach

A third of global fish stocks are overexploited and many are economically underperforming, resulting in potential unrealized net economic benefits of USD 51 to 83 billion annually. However, this aggregate view, while useful for global policy discussion, may obscure the view for those actors who engage at a regional level. Therefore, we develop a method to associate large companies with their fishing operations and evaluate the biological sustainability of these operations. We link current fish biomass levels and landings to the revenue streams of the companies under study to compute potentially unrealized fisheries revenues and profits at the level of individual firms. We illustrate our method using two case studies: anchoveta (Engraulis ringens; Engraulidae) in Peru and menhaden in the USA (Brevoortia patronus and B. tyrannus; Clupeidae). We demonstrate that both these fisheries could potentially increase their revenues compared to the current levels of exploitation. We estimate the net but unrealized fishery benefits for the companies under question. This information could be useful to investors and business owners who might want to be aware of the actual fisheries performance options of the companies they invest in.

The Sustainable Seafood Movement Is a Governance Concert, with the Audience Playing a Key Role

Private standards, including ecolabels, have been posed as a governance solution for the global fisheries crisis. The conventional logic is that ecolabels meet consumer demand for certified “sustainable” seafood, with “good” players rewarded with price premiums or market share and “bad” players punished by reduced sales. Empirically, however, in the markets where ecolabeling has taken hold, retailers and brands—rather than consumers—are demanding sustainable sourcing, to build and protect their reputation. The aim of this paper is to devise a more accurate logic for understanding the sustainable seafood movement, using a qualitative literature review and reflection on our previous research. We find that replacing the consumer-driven logic with a retailer/brand-driven logic does not go far enough in making research into the sustainable seafood movement more useful. Governance is a “concert” and cannot be adequately explained through individual actor groups. We propose a new logic going beyond consumer- or retailer/brand-driven models, and call on researchers to build on the partial pictures given by studies on prices and willingness-to-pay, investigating more fully the motivations of actors in the sustainable seafood movement, and considering audience beyond the direct consumption of the product in question.

Reduced Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Panels for Assigning Atlantic Albacore and Bay of Biscay Anchovy Individuals to Their Geographic Origin: Toward Sustainable Fishery Management

There is an increasing trend upon adding a detailed description of the origin of seafood products driven by a general interest in the implementation of sustainable fishery management plans for the conservation of marine ecosystems. North Atlantic albacore ("Bonito del Norte con Eusko Label") and Bay of Biscay anchovy ("Anchoa del Cantábrico") are two commercially important fish populations with high economical value and vulnerable to commercial fraud. This fact, together with the overexploited situation of these two populations, makes it necessary to develop a tool to identify individual origin and to detect commercial fraud. In the present study, we have developed and validated a traceability tool consisting of reduced panels of gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) suitable for assigning individuals of two species to their origin with unprecedented accuracy levels. Only 48 SNPs are necessary to assign 81.1% albacore and 93.4% anchovy individuals with 100% accuracy to their geographic origin. The total accuracy of the results demonstrates how gene-associated SNPs can revolutionize food traceability. Gene-associated SNP panels are not of mere commercial interest, but they also can result in a positive impact on sustainability of marine ecosystems through conservation of fish populations through establishing a more effective and sustainable fishery management framework and contributing to the prevention of falsified labeling.

A broader view of stewardship to achieve conservation and sustainability goals in South Africa

Abstract Stewardship is a popular term for the principles and actions aimed at improving sustainability and resilience of social-ecological systems at various scales and in different contexts. Participation in stewardship is voluntary, and is based on values of altruism and long-term benefits. At a global scale, ‘earth stewardship’ is viewed as a successor to earlier natural resource management systems. However, in South Africa, stewardship is narrowly applied to biodiversity conservation agreements on private land. Using a broader definition of stewardship, we identify all potentially related schemes that may contribute to sustainability and conservation outcomes. Stewardship schemes and actors are represented as a social network and placed in a simple typology based on objectives, mechanisms of action and operational scales. The predominant type was biodiversity stewardship programmes. The main actors were environmental non-governmental organisations participating in prominent bioregional landscape partnerships, together acting as important ‘bridging organisations’ within local stewardship networks. This bridging enables a high degree of collaboration between non-governmental and governmental bodies, especially provincial conservation agencies via mutual projects and conservation objectives. An unintended consequence may be that management accountability is relinquished or neglected by government because of inadequate implementation capacity. Other stewardship types, such as market-based and landscape initiatives, complemented primarily biodiversity ones, as part of national spatial conservation priorities. Not all schemes related to biodiversity, especially those involving common pool resources, markets and supply chains. Despite an apparent narrow biodiversity focus, there is evidence of diversification of scope to include more civic and community-level stewardship activities, in line with the earth stewardship metaphor.

Taking high conservation value from forests to freshwaters

The high conservation value (HCV) concept, originally developed by the Forest Stewardship Council, has been widely incorporated outside the forestry sector into companies' supply chain assessments and responsible purchasing policies, financial institutions' investment policies, and numerous voluntary commodity standards. Many, if not most, of these newer applications relate to production practices that are likely to affect freshwater systems directly or indirectly, yet there is little guidance as to whether or how HCV can be applied to water bodies. We focus this paper on commodity standards and begin by exploring how prominent standards currently address both HCVs and freshwaters. We then highlight freshwater features of high conservation importance and examine how well those features are captured by the existing HCV framework. We propose a new set of freshwater 'elements' for each of the six values and suggest an approach for identifying HCV Areas that takes out-of-fence line impacts into account, thereby spatially extending the scope of existing methods to define HCVs. We argue that virtually any non-marine HCV assessment, regardless of the production sector, should be expanded to include freshwater values, and we suggest how to put those recommendations into practice.

Improving global environmental management with standard corporate reporting

Multinational corporations play a prominent role in shaping the environmental trajectory of the planet. The integration of environmental costs and benefits into corporate decision-making has enormous, but as yet unfulfilled, potential to promote sustainable development. To help steer business decisions toward better environmental outcomes, corporate reporting frameworks need to develop scientifically informed standards that consistently consider land use and land conversion, clean air (including greenhouse gas emissions), availability and quality of freshwater, degradation of coastal and marine habitats, and sustainable use of renewable resources such as soil, timber, and fisheries. Standardization by itself will not be enough--also required are advances in ecosystem modeling and in our understanding of critical ecological thresholds. With improving ecosystem science, the opportunity for realizing a major breakthrough in reporting corporate environmental impacts and dependencies has never been greater. Now is the time for ecologists to take advantage of an explosion of sustainability commitments from business leaders and expanding pressure for sustainable practices from shareholders, financial institutions, and consumers.

Environmental quality of Italian marine water by means of marine strategy framework directive (MSFD) descriptor 9

ISPRA, on behalf of the Italian Ministry of Environment, carried out the initial assessment of environmental quality status of the 3 Italian subregions (Mediterranean Sea Region) on Descriptor 9. The approach adopted to define the GES started to verify that contaminants in fish and other seafood for human consumption did not exceed levels established by Community legislation (Reg. 1881/2006 and further updates). As the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires to use health tools to assess the environment, Italy decided to adopt a statistical range of acceptance of thresholds identified by national (D.Lgs. 152/2006 concerning water quality required for mussel farms) and international legislation (Reg. 1881/2006 and further updates), which allowed to use the health results and to employ them for the assessment of environmental quality. Italy proposed that Good Environmental Status (GES) is achieved when concentrations are lower than statistical range of acceptance, estimated on samples of fish and fishery products coming from only national waters. GIS-based approach a to perform different integration levels for station, cell's grid and years, was used; the elaborations allowed to judge the environmental quality good.

A critical assessment of marine aquarist biodiversity data and commercial aquaculture: identifying gaps in culture initiatives to inform local fisheries managers

It is widely accepted that if well managed, the marine aquarium trade could provide socio-economic stability to local communities while incentivising the maintenance of coral reefs. However, the trade has also been implicated as having potentially widespread environmental impacts that has in part driven developments in aquaculture to relieve wild collection pressures. This study investigates the biodiversity in hobbyist aquaria (using an online survey) and those species currently available from an aquaculture source (commercial data and hobbyist initiatives) in the context of a traffic light system to highlight gaps in aquaculture effort and identify groups that require fisheries assessments. Two hundred and sixty nine species including clown fish, damsels, dotty backs, angelfish, gobies, sea horses and blennies, have reported breeding successes by hobbyists, a pattern mirrored by the European and US commercial organisations. However, there is a mismatch (high demand and low/non-existent aquaculture) for a number of groups including tangs, starfish, anemones and hermit crabs, which we recommend are priority candidates for local stock assessments. Hobbyist perception towards the concept of a sustainable aquarium trade is also explored with results demonstrating that only 40% of respondents were in agreement with industry and scientists who believe the trade could be an exemplar of a sustainable use of coral reefs. We believe that a more transparent evidence base, including the publication of the species collected and cultured, will go some way to align the concept of a sustainable trade across industry stakeholders and better inform the hobbyist when purchasing their aquaria stock. We conclude by proposing that a certification scheme established with government support is the most effective way to move towards a self-regulating industry. It would prevent industry "greenwashing" from multiple certification schemes, alleviate conservation concerns, and, ultimately, support aquaculture initiatives alongside well managed ornamental fisheries.

Citation patterns of a controversial and high-impact paper: Worm et al. (2006) "Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services"

Citation patterns were examined for Worm et al. 2006 (Science 314:787-790), a high-impact paper that focused on relationships between marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper sparked much controversy through its projection, highlighted in the press release, that all marine fisheries would be collapsed by 2048. Analysis of 664 citing papers revealed that only a small percentage (11%) referred to the 2048 projection, while 39% referred to fisheries collapse in general, and 40% to biodiversity and ecosystem services. The 2048 projection was mentioned more often in papers published soon after the original paper, in low-impact journals, and in journals outside of fields that would be expected to focus on biodiversity. Citing papers also mentioned the 2048 projection more often if they had few authors (28% of single-author papers vs. 2% of papers with 10 or more authors). These factors suggest that the more knowledgeable the authors of citing papers were about the controversy over the 2048 projection, the less likely they were to refer to it. A noteworthy finding was that if the original authors were also involved in the citing papers, they rarely (1 of 55 papers, 2%) mentioned the 2048 projection. Thus the original authors have emphasized the broader concerns about biodiversity loss, rather than the 2048 projection, as the key result of their study.