Premature Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease in the Americas - Will the Goal of a Decline of "25% by 2025" be Met?

Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease and Its Attributable Risk Factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990 to 2019: Results From the GBD Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region has one of the highest burdens of ischemic heart disease (IHD) worldwide. This study reports the contemporary epidemiology of IHD in NAME.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We estimated the incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and premature mortality of IHD, and its attributable risk factors in NAME from 1990 to 2019 using the results of the GBD (Global Burden of Disease study 2019). In 2019, 0.8 million lives and 18.0 million DALYs were lost due to IHD in NAME. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of IHD significantly decreased by 33.3%, mostly due to the reduction of years of life lost rather than years lived with disability. In 2019, the proportion of premature death attributable to IHD was higher in NAME compared with global measures: 26.8% versus 16.9% for women and 18.4% versus 14.8% for men, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate of IHD attributed to metabolic risks, behavioral risks, and environmental/occupational risks significantly decreased by 28.7%, 37.8%, and 36.4%, respectively. Dietary risk factors, high systolic blood pressure, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were the top 3 risks contributing to the IHD burden in most countries of NAME in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2019, IHD was the leading cause of death and lost DALYs in NAME, where premature death due to IHD was greater than the global average. Despite the great reduction in the age-standardized DALYs of IHD in NAME from 1990 to 2019, this region still had the second-highest burden of IHD in 2019 globally.

Trends in mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Chile, 2000-2020

Objective

To analyze trends in mortality caused by cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Chile during the period 2000-2020.

Methods

Data on age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) from CVD per 100 000 population in Chile for 2000-2020 were extracted from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trends and compute the average annual percent change (AAPC) in Chile. In addition, analyses were conducted by sex and type of CVD.

Results

Between 2000 and 2020, the AAMR from CVD decreased in Chile from 159.5 to 94.6 per 100 000 population, with a statistically significant decrease in the AAPC of 2.6% (95% CI [-2.8, -2.4]). No joinpoints were identified. The AAMR from CVD decreased annually by 2.6% (95% CI [-2.8, -2.4]) and 2.8% (95% CI [-3.5, -2.6]) in men and women, respectively. The AAMR from ischemic heart disease reduced annually by 3.6% (95% CI [-4.6, -2.7]) with two joinpoints in 2011 and 2015. In the case of stroke, the mortality rate decreased annually by 3.7% (95% CI [-4.5, -3.0]), with two joinpoints in 2008 and 2011.

Conclusions

Cardiovascular disease mortality rates have decreased significantly in Chile, in both sexes, especially in women. This decrease could be explained mainly by a significant reduction in the case fatality in recent decades. These results could be a reference for developing primary prevention and acute management of CVD policies focused on populations with higher mortality.

Factores de riesgo y muerte cardiovascular en América del Sur

We present cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality rates reported for South America stratified by country, sex, and urban/rural location in a multinational cohort included in the Population Urban Rural Epidemiological Study (PURE). This study included 24,718 participants from 51 urban and 49 rural communities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia and the mean follow-up was 10.3years. CVD incidence and mortality rates were calculated for the total cohort and in subpopulations. Hazard ratios and population attributable fractions (PAFs) for CVD and death were examined for 12 modifiable risk factors, grouped as metabolic (hypertension, diabetes, abdominal obesity, and high non-HDL cholesterol), behavioural (smoking, alcohol, diet quality, and physical activity) and other (education, household air pollution, strength, and depression). The leading causes of death were CVD (31.1%), cancer (30.6%), and respiratory diseases (8.6%). Approximately 72% of the PAFs for CVD and 69% of the PAFs for deaths were attributed to 12 modifiable risk factors. For CVD, the main PAFs were due to hypertension (18.7%), abdominal obesity (15.4%), smoking (13.5%), low muscle strength (5.6%), and diabetes (5.3%). For death, the main PAFs were smoking (14.4%), hypertension (12.0%), low educational level (10.5%), abdominal obesity (9.7%), and diabetes (5.5%). Cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and respiratory diseases account for more than two-thirds of deaths in South America. Men have consistently higher CVD rates and mortality than women. A large proportion of CVD and premature deaths could be avoided by controlling metabolic risk factors and smoking, which are the main risk factors in the region for both CVD and all-cause mortality.

When less is more powerful: Shapley value attributed ablation with augmented learning for practical time series sensor data classification

Time series sensor data classification tasks often suffer from training data scarcity issue due to the expenses associated with the expert-intervened annotation efforts. For example, Electrocardiogram (ECG) data classification for cardio-vascular disease (CVD) detection requires expensive labeling procedures with the help of cardiologists. Current state-of-the-art algorithms like deep learning models have shown outstanding performance under the general requirement of availability of large set of training examples. In this paper, we propose Shapley Attributed Ablation with Augmented Learning: ShapAAL, which demonstrates that deep learning algorithm with suitably selected subset of the seen examples or ablating the unimportant ones from the given limited training dataset can ensure consistently better classification performance under augmented training. In ShapAAL, additive perturbed training augments the input space to compensate the scarcity in training examples using Residual Network (ResNet) architecture through perturbation-induced inputs, while Shapley attribution seeks the subset from the augmented training space for better learnability with the goal of better general predictive performance, thanks to the "efficiency" and "null player" axioms of transferable utility games upon which Shapley value game is formulated. In ShapAAL, the subset of training examples that contribute positively to a supervised learning setup is derived from the notion of coalition games using Shapley values associated with each of the given inputs' contribution into the model prediction. ShapAAL is a novel push-pull deep architecture where the subset selection through Shapley value attribution pushes the model to lower dimension while augmented training augments the learning capability of the model over unseen data. We perform ablation study to provide the empirical evidence of our claim and we show that proposed ShapAAL method consistently outperforms the current baselines and state-of-the-art algorithms for time series sensor data classification tasks from publicly available UCR time series archive that includes different practical important problems like detection of CVDs from ECG data.

Improving household nutrition security and public health in the CARICOM, 2018–2022

The Caribbean is experiencing a worsening epidemic of obesity and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and it has the worst rates of premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the region of the Americas. Creating enabling environments to improve dietary diversity would help reduce obesity and diet-related NCDs. The Improving Household Nutrition Security and Public Health in the CARICOM project aimed to increase dietary diversity in the Caribbean, and to determine and implement effective, gender-sensitive interventions to improve food sovereignty, household food security, and nutrition in CARICOM states. Primary quantitative and qualitative research, scoping reviews, stakeholder engagement, implementation of interventions and dissemination activities were undertaken. This paper describes the overall project design and implementation, discusses challenges and limitations, and presents core achievements to inform further work in Small Island Developing States throughout CARICOM to advance the nutrition agenda in the Caribbean. The results of the project’s research activities are presented in other papers published in this special issue on nutrition security in CARICOM states.

Impact of Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme on cardiovascular and all-cause mortality: a natural experiment study using the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has a disproportionate effect on mortality among the poorest people. We assessed the impact on CVD and all-cause mortality of the world's largest conditional cash transfer, Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme (BFP).

METHODS

We linked administrative data from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort with BFP receipt and national mortality data. We followed individuals who applied for BFP between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2015, until 31 December 2015. We used marginal structural models to estimate the effect of BFP on all-age and premature (30-69 years) CVD and all-cause mortality. We conducted stratified analyses by levels of material deprivation and access to healthcare. We checked the robustness of our findings by restricting the analysis to municipalities with better mortality data and by using alternative statistical methods.

RESULTS

We studied 17 981 582 individuals, of whom 4 855 324 were aged 30-69 years. Three-quarters (76.2%) received BFP, with a mean follow-up post-award of 2.6 years. We detected 106 807 deaths by all causes, of which 60 893 were premature; and 23 389 CVD deaths, of which 15 292 were premature. BFP was associated with reductions in premature all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94-0.98], premature CVD (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.92-1.00) and all-age CVD (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.93-1.00) but not all-age all-cause mortality (HR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.98-1.02). In stratified and robustness analyses, BFP was consistently associated with mortality reductions for individuals living in the two most deprived quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS

BFP appears to have a small to null effect on premature CVD and all-cause mortality in the short term; the long-term impact remains unknown.

Assessing the determinants of unhealthy dietary habits among a sample of survey participants in Jamaica

Objective.

To identify and assess the determinants of unhealthy dietary habits among a sample of survey participants in Jamaica.

Methods.

Because of resource constraints, this cross-sectional assessment is based on a three-stage non-probability sample of 374 survey respondents in Jamaica aged ≥18 years. Firstly, three administrative areas (parishes) were randomly selected. Secondly, the main commercial areas within the selected parishes were identified, from which a non-probability sample of establishments was drawn. A broad selection of establishments covering public, private, and nongovernmental organizations was chosen. This array of establishments was selected to capture a sample of respondents that was as representative as possible. Patrons and employees in the selected establishments were asked to complete a questionnaire.

Results.

Respondents’ self-assessment of their general consumption revealed that 48.4% were unhealthy eaters. Among these, the top reasons for generally unhealthy dietary choices were greater accessibility of unhealthy foods (63.5%) and limited time to prepare healthy meals (61.3%). Additionally, 52.5% indicated “unhealthy foods cost less,” and 47.0% identified affordability as the main factor in the food choice equation. Findings revealed that the determinants of eating unhealthily tended to vary across income, age, and gender. Female, younger, and lower-income respondents have a higher likelihood of being impacted by the factors.

Conclusions.

The largest proportions of the sample identified limited time to prepare healthy meals and the ease of access to unhealthy foods as the foremost determinants of unhealthy eating habits. These barriers to healthy eating are more likely to impact survey participants in the 18–34 age group.

Gaps in Hypertension Management in a Middle-Income Community of Quito-Ecuador: A Population-Based Study

Optimal hypertension care and control at population level significantly reduces cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The study objective was to measure the gaps in the diagnosis, care, and control of hypertension in residents of an urban community in Quito, Ecuador. A cross-sectional population-based study with a sample of 2160 persons was performed using a survey and direct blood pressure measurement. Logistical regression models were used for analyzing factors associated with the gaps, expressed as percentages. The prevalence of hypertension was 17.6% [CI 95% 17.3–17.9%]. The diagnosis gap was 6.1% [CI 95% 5.9–6.2%] among the entire population and 34.5% [CI 95% 33.7–35.3%] among persons with hypertension. No access gaps were detected; whereas the follow-up gap was 22.7% [CI 95% 21.8–23.6%] and control gap reached 43.5% [CI 95% 42.6–44.2%]. Results indicated that being male, older than 64 years, an employee, without health insurance, and not perceiving a need for healthcare, increased the risk of experiencing these gaps. Data showed appropriate access to health services and high coverage in the diagnosis was due to the application of a community and family healthcare model. Notwithstanding, we found significant gaps in the follow-up and control of hypertensive patients, especially among older males, which should warrant the attention of the Ministry of Health.

Evaluating the impact of the Bolsa Familia conditional cash transfer program on premature cardiovascular and all-cause mortality using the 100 million Brazilian cohort: a natural experiment study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Brazil's Bolsa Familia Program (BFP) is the world's largest conditional cash transfer scheme. We shall use a large cohort of applicants for different social programmes to evaluate the effect of BFP receipt on premature all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will identify BFP recipients and non-recipients among new applicants from 2004 to 2015 in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort, a database of 114 million individuals containing sociodemographic and mortality information of applicants to any Brazilian social programme. For individuals applying from 2011, when we have better recorded income data, we shall compare premature (age 30-69) cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among BFP recipients and non-recipients using regression discontinuity design (RDD) with household monthly per capita income as the forcing variable. Effects will be estimated using survival models accounting for individuals follow-up. To test the sensitivity of our findings, we will estimate models with different bandwidths, include potential confounders as covariates in the survival models, and restrict our data to locations with the most reliable data. In addition, we will estimate the effect of BFP on studied outcomes using propensity score risk-set matching, separately for individuals that applied ≤2010 and >2011, allowing comparability with RDD. Analyses will be stratified by geographical region, gender, race/ethnicity and socioeconomic position. We will investigate differential impacts of BFP and the presence of effect modification for a combination of characteristics, including gender and race/ethnicity.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the ethics committees of Oswaldo Cruz Foundation and the University of Glasgow College of Medicine and Veterinary Life Sciences. The deidentified dataset will be provided to researchers, and data analysis will be performed in a safe computational environment without internet access. Study findings will be published in high quality peer-reviewed research articles. The published results will be disseminated in the social media and to policy-makers.

Projection of premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases for 2025: a model based study from Hunan Province, China, 1990-2016

Background

In 2011, the United Nations set a target to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 25% by 2025. While studies have reported the target in some countries, no studies have been done in China. This study aims to project the ability to reach the target in Hunan Province, China, and establish the priority for future interventions.

Methods

We conducted the study during 2019–2020. From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, we extracted death data for Hunan during 1990–2016 for four main NCDs, namely cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes. We generated estimates for 2025 by fitting a linear regression to the premature mortality over the most recent trend identified by a joinpoint regression model. We also estimated excess premature mortality attributable to unfavorable changes over time.

Results

The rate of premature mortality from all NCDs in Hunan will be 19.5% (95% CI [19.0%–20.1%]) by 2025, with the main contributions being from CVD (8.2%, 95% CI [7.9%–8.5%]) and cancer (7.9%, 95% CI [7.8%–8.1%]). Overall, it will be impossible to achieve the target, with a relative reduction of 16.4%. Women may be able to meet the target except with respect to cancer, and men will not except with respect to chronic respiratory diseases. Most of the unfavorable changes have occurred since 2008–2009.

Discussion

More urgent efforts, especially for men, should be exerted in Hunan by integrating population-wide interventions into a stronger health-care system. In the post lock-down COVID-19 era in China, reducing the NCD risk factors can also lower the risk of death from COVID-19.

Reducing the cardiovascular disease burden for people of all ages in the Americas region: analysis of mortality data, 2000-15

BACKGROUND

In accordance with the age parameters specified in Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4, current policy and monitoring of non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality trends focus on people aged 30-69 years. This approach excludes the majority of NCD deaths, which occur at older ages. We aimed to compare cardiovascular mortality for different age groups in the WHO Region of the Americas.

METHODS

We extracted mortality data from the Pan American Health Organization regional mortality database for 36 countries for the period 2000 to 2015. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) from cardiovascular diseases for different age groups for these countries. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate mortality trends, providing estimates of the average annual percentage change for the period 2000-15.

FINDINGS

Individuals aged 70 years or older accounted for the majority of cardiovascular disease deaths in all countries (range 52-82%). Considerable variation in cardiovascular deaths was observed between countries for all age categories. Between 2000 and 2015, in most countries, the largest reductions in ASMR were observed in the older age groups (aged ≥70 years). The total number of regional cardiovascular disease deaths that hypothetically could have been averted in 2015 for people aged 30-79 years was 440 777, of which 211 365 (48%) occurred among people aged 70-79 years.

INTERPRETATION

Data for the WHO Region of the Americas are sufficiently robust to permit comparative analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality trends for people aged 70 years and older over time and across countries. Although the reduction of cardiovascular disease mortality in individuals aged 30-69 years is a valid policy goal for the Americas region, this objective should be expanded to include people at older ages.

FUNDING

None.

Challenges facing drug utilization research in the Latin American region

PURPOSE

The International Society of Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) in collaboration with the Latin America Drug Utilization Research Group (LatAm DURG), the Medicines Utilization Research in Africa (MURIA) group, and the Uppsala Monitoring Center, is leading an initiative to understand challenges to drug utilization research (DUR) in the Latin American (LatAm) and African regions with the goal of communicating results and proposing solutions to these challenges in four scientific publications. The purpose of this first manuscript is to identify the main challenges associated with DUR in the LatAm region.

METHODS

Drug utilization (DU) researchers in the LatAm region voluntarily participated in multiple discussions, contributed with local data and reviewed successive drafts and the final manuscript. Additionally, we carried out a literature review to identify the most relevant publications related to DU studies from the LatAm region.

RESULTS

Multiple challenges were identified in the LatAm region for DUR including socioeconomic inequality, access to medical care, complexity of the healthcare system, limited investment in research and development, limited institutional and organization resources, language barriers, limited health education and literacy. Further, there is limited use of local DUR data by decision makers particularly in the identification of emerging health needs coming from social and demographic transitions.

CONCLUSIONS

The LatAm region faces challenges to DUR which are inherent in the healthcare and political systems, and potential solutions should target changes to the system.

Trends in Premature Deaths Among Adults in the United States and Latin America

IMPORTANCE

Premature death rates vary in the United States by race/ethnicity. Despite their socioeconomic disadvantages, US Latino populations have lower premature mortality rates than do US white populations, a phenomenon termed the "Latino or Hispanic paradox."

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether there is a broader Latin American paradox by comparing premature mortality rates in the United States according to race/ethnicity with rates in Latin America and Puerto Rico from 2001 to 2015.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This descriptive cross-sectional study used mortality data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. All deaths occurring in individuals aged 20 to 64 years among US Latino, African American, white, and Puerto Rican and 12 other Latin American populations from January 2001 to December 2015 were selected. The data analysis began in October 2018.

EXPOSURES

Age, sex, race/ethnicity, and country.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, age-standardized mortality rates (AMSRs), and average annual percentage change in mortality rates during 2001 to 2015.

RESULTS

During 2001 to 2015, 22 million deaths (8 million women and 14 million men) occurred among individuals aged 20 to 64 years in the selected populations. Among women, US Latina individuals had the lowest premature mortality rates (ASMR for 2015, 144 deaths per 100 000 population) and US African American women had the highest premature mortality rate (ASMR for 2015, 340 deaths per 100 000 population) of the 16 populations studied. Rates among US white women shifted from the sixth lowest in 2001 (ASMR, 231 deaths per 100 000 population) to the 12th lowest in 2015 (ASMR, 235 deaths per 100 000 population). Among men, Peru had the lowest premature mortality rates (ASMR for 2015, 219 deaths per 100 000 population), and Belize had the highest premature mortality rates (ASMR for 2015, 702 deaths per 100 000 population). White men in the United States shifted from the fifth lowest rates in 2001 (ASMR, 396 deaths per 100 000 population) to the eighth lowest rates in 2015 (ASMR, 394 deaths per 100 000 population). Rates for both women and men decreased in all the populations studied from 2001 to 2015 (average annual percentage change range, 0.4% to 3.8% per year) except among US white populations, for which the rate plateaued (average annual percentage change, 0.02% per year [95% CI, -0.3% to 0.2% per year] for women; -0.2% per year [95% CI, -0.4% to 0.0% per year] for men) and among Nicaraguan men, for whom the rates increased (0.6% per year [95% CI, 0.2% to 1.0% per year]). The populations with the lowest mortality rates in 2015 had lower rates from all major causes, but rates were particularly lower for heart disease (21 deaths per 100 000 population) and cancer (50 deaths per 100 000 population).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Premature mortality rates are lower for US Latino populations and several Latin American countries than for US white populations, suggesting that there may be a broader Latin American paradox. This analysis also highlights the high premature mortality rates among US African American populations, especially women, compared with many Latin American populations.

Nutritional adequacy and dietary disparities in an adult Caribbean population of African descent with a high burden of diabetes and cardiovascular disease

The Caribbean island of Barbados has a high burden of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Dietary habits were last described in 2005. A representative population-based sample (n = 363, aged 25-64 years) provided two nonconsecutive 24-hr dietary recalls in this cross-sectional study. Mean daily nutrient intakes were compared with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Subgroup differences by age, sex, and educational level were examined using logistic regression. High sugar intakes exist for both sexes with 24% (95% CIs 18.9, 30.0) consuming less than the recommended <10% of energy from added sugars (men 22%; 15.0, 31.6; women 26%; 18.9, 33.7). Sugar-sweetened beverages provide 43% (42.2%, 44.4%) of total sugar intake. Inadequate dietary fiber intakes (men 21 g, 18.2, 22.8; women 18 g, 16.7, 18.9) exist across all age groups. Inadequate micronutrient intake was found in women for calcium, folate, thiamine, zinc, and iron. Older persons (aged 45-64 years) were more likely to report adequacy of dietary fiber (OR = 2.7, 1.5, 4.8) and iron (OR = 3.0, 1.7, 5.3) than younger persons (aged 25-44). Older persons (aged 45-64 years) were less likely to have an adequate supply of riboflavin (OR = 0.4, 0.2, 0.6) than younger persons. Men were more likely to have adequate intakes of iron (OR = 13.0, 6.1, 28.2), folate (OR = 2.4, 1.3, 4.6), and thiamine (OR = 3.0, 1.5, 5.0) than women. Education was not associated with nutrient intake. The Barbadian diet is characterized by high sugar intakes and inadequate dietary fiber; a nutrient profile associated with an increased risk of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and related noncommunicable diseases.

Adverse risk factor trends limit gains in coronary heart disease mortality in Barbados: 1990-2012

Background

Although most countries face increasing population levels of obesity and diabetes their effect on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has not been often studied in small island developing states (SIDs) where obesity rates are among the highest in the world. We estimated the relative contributions of treatments and cardiovascular risk factors to the decline in CHD mortality from 1990 to 2012 in the Caribbean island, Barbados.

Methods

We used the IMPACT CHD mortality model to estimate the effect of increased coverage of effective medical/surgical treatments and changes in major CHD risk factors on mortality trends in 2012 compared with 1990. We calculated deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) for each model risk factor and treatment group. We obtained data from WHO Mortality database, population denominators from the Barbados Statistical Service stratified by 10-year age group (ages 25–34 up to 85 plus), population-based risk factor surveys, Global Burden of Disease and Barbados’ national myocardial infarction registry. Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed.

Results

In 1990 the age-standardized CHD mortality rate was 109.5 per 100,000 falling to 55.3 in 2012. Implementation of effective treatment accounted for 56% DPPs (95% (Uncertainty Interval (UI) 46%, 68%), mostly due to the introduction of treatments immediately after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (14%) and unstable angina (14%). Overall, risk factors contributed 19% DPPs (95% UI 6% to 34%) mostly attributed to decline in cholesterol (18% DPPs, 95% UI 12%, 26%). Adverse trends in diabetes: 14% additional deaths(ADs) 95% UI 8% to 21% ADs) and BMI (2% ADs 95%UI 0 to 5% ADs) limited potential for risk factor gains.

Conclusions

Given the significant negative impact of obesity/diabetes on mortality in this analysis, research that explores factors affecting implementation of evidenced-based preventive strategies is needed. The fact that most of the decline in CHD mortality in Barbados was due to treatment provides an example for SIDs about the advantages of universal access to care and treatment.

Prevalence trends of overweight, obesity, diabetes and hypertension among Brazilian women of reproductive age based on sociodemographic characteristics

The authors estimated the prevalence and trends of overweight, obesity, diabetes and hypertension among Brazilian women of reproductive age. A time series was constructed with Vigitel data from 2008 to 2015 and we analyzed trends of the prevalence of these conditions, considering sociodemographic characteristics. We observed an increasing trend in prevalence of overweight, obesity, and diabetes (for some sociodemographic characteristics), and stationary trends for hypertension. Our results highlight the need for early interventions in lifestyle of this population to reduce the NCDs risk factors burden and potentially contribute to improve maternal and neonatal outcomes and reduce the NCDs load.

Implications of the growing burden of diabetes for premature cardiovascular disease mortality and the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a major cause of deaths globally, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of these deaths. 42% of NCD deaths are premature (occurring before the age of 70 years). As part of the United Nations 3rd Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) on health and wellbeing, target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from NCDs by one third between 2015 and 2030. This target adds to the World Health Organization (WHO) target of reducing premature deaths from NCDs by 25% between 2010 and 2025. As diabetes is a major risk factor for CVD, it is important to account for the trends in diabetes when considering premature CVD mortality. We aimed to describe the global trends in diabetes prevalence and mortality, critically review the literature on the estimated attainability of the WHO and SDG targets, and determine if and how these studies accounted for trends in diabetes. Worldwide, the prevalence of diabetes is rising, with an estimated 9.0% global prevalence in adults aged 20-69 by 2030, and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) having the largest increase of the burden in absolute numbers and age-standardized prevalence. There is a lack of data from most LMICs on the excess CVD mortality associated with diabetes and therefore no consensus on the global risk of CVD mortality in people with diabetes. Where data do exist, there are discrepancies between studies on the direction of mortality trends from diabetes over time. We reviewed 12 studies that estimated the attainability of the WHO or SDG targets for premature NCD mortality. Seven of these considered the potential impacts of achieving the 2025 WHO risk factor targets. Six studies modelled the impact of current trends in risk factors, including diabetes, continuing toward the target dates. Four studies compared this 'business as usual' model with the attainment of the risk factor targets for the world as whole and individual regions, 2 studies for NCD mortality overall, and 2 specifically for CVD mortality. On the impact of diabetes with regards to attainment of the WHO or SDG targets for premature CVD mortality, the overall results were inconclusive. Some concluded that none of the countries or regions considered would meet the targets, and others predicted that in some areas, the targets would be met. Examining the potential impact of trends in diabetes on future CVD mortality rates in LMICs is limited by a relative lack of high quality studies, including on the age specific excess mortality associated with diabetes. Filling these data gaps will enable better estimates of the potential impacts on future CVD mortality of the rapidly increasing prevalence of diabetes in LMICs and help to better inform health policy and the attainment of SDG target 3.4.

Premature mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes in the Caribbean and associations with health care expenditure, 2001 - 2011

Objective.

To examine the historical trends of premature death due to cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus (CVD-DM) in the Caribbean and to identify any associations between these trends and health care expenditure.

Methods.

Death data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database; population data, from the United Nations World Population prospects; and health care expenditure data, from the World Bank. In all, 17 Caribbean countries had mortality data; however, only 11 had both mortality and health care expenditure data available. The analyses explored country-level trends in age-standardized CVD-DM mortality rates using 3-year moving averages from 1995 − 2014 for women and men. Associations between secular mortality rate change and health care expenditure were considered.

Results.

CVD-DM mortality rates ranged from 10.7 − 247.1 per 100 000, with a mean of 92.3 and standard deviation of 47.6. Of the 17 countries, 12 showed a reduction in premature CVD-DM mortality in both men and women, with others either showing no improvement or increases. Mortality rates for men were 1.46 times higher than for women. On average, there was a 68% increase in health care expenditure, with a 15.4% fall in CVD-DM mortality in women and 4.9% in men. Mixed effects modelling demonstrated a weak association between health care expenditure and declining CVD-DM mortality for both women −0.006 (95%CI = −0.014 − 0.001) and men −0.008 (95%CI = −0.017 − 0.001).

Conclusions.

Findings suggest that progress has been made to reduce premature CVD-DM related mortality in a number of Caribbean countries. Differences between countries may be partly related to differences in health care system performance, although further research that considers confounders is needed.

The 2007 Caribbean Community Port-of-Spain Declaration on noncommunicable diseases: an overview of a multidisciplinary evaluation

OBJECTIVES

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a threat to social and economic development, including in the Caribbean. In 2007 the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) held the world's first-ever summit of heads of government on NCD prevention and control and issued the landmark Declaration of Port-of-Spain: Uniting to Stop the Epidemic of Chronic NCDs. The objectives of this paper are to provide an overview of a formal evaluation of the Declaration and to highlight key findings that could inform further implementation of the Declaration's 15 mandates.

METHODS

The evaluation's six research objectives were decided through stakeholder engagement and assessed by concurrent quantitative and qualitative research methods, using the following four themes: 1) trends in risk factors, morbidity, and mortality; 2) national and Caribbean-wide policy responses, and factors associated with policy successes and difficulties; 3) the international impact of the Declaration; and 4) the potential for raising revenue from tobacco and alcohol taxation in order to support NCD prevention and control.

RESULTS

There are marked disparities in NCD mortality and trends among the 20 CARICOM member countries and territories. No CARICOM member had fully implemented all of the Declaration's 15 mandates (which were monitored by 26 indicators), with 10 CARICOM members implementing fewer than half of the indicators, and with most members lacking a well-functioning multisectoral NCD Commission. Larger CARICOM members tended to have higher levels of implementation than did smaller members. Mandates that received active support from regional institutions tended to be better implemented by the CARICOM members than did mandates that lacked that kind of support. Feasible national tobacco and alcohol tax increases could more than cover the cost of implementing the World Health Organization NCD "best buy" interventions in the CARICOM member countries and territories.

CONCLUSIONS

Priorities for further implementation of the mandates from the Port-of-Spain Declaration include establishing throughout the CARICOM member countries and territories fully functioning national bodies to support multisectoral action for NCD prevention; greater regional support in policy development and implementation for smaller countries; and greater targeted use of taxes on tobacco and alcohol to support NCD control and prevention.

Regulatory measures to fight obesity in Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean and Pacific, 2015 - 2017

This report examines the experiences of Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean— Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, and in the Pacific— Fiji, Nauru, and Tonga with specific governmental regulatory measures to reduce the risk of obesity and associated diet-related chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), as well as the obstacles and opportunities encountered. Guided by the diet-related indicators of the World Health Organization (WHO) Noncommunicable Diseases Progress Monitor 2017, the authors reviewed legislation, country reports, articles, and the databases of WHO and the World Trade Organization to identify relevant regulatory measures and to establish the extent of implementation in the selected countries.

Obesity prevalence ranged from 25.9% in Dominica to 41.1% in Tonga. The principal diet-related measures implemented by the selected countries were fiscal measures, such as sugar-sweetened beverage taxes and import duties to encourage greater consumption of healthy foods. Governmental action was weakest in the area of restrictions on marketing of unhealthy foods.

If they are to reduce their current high rates of obesity and associated NCDs, Caribbean and Pacific states need to intensify implementation of diet-related regulatory measures, particularly in the area of marketing of unhealthy foods and beverages to children. Key implementation challenges include financial and staffing constraints and the need for increased political will to counter industry opposition and to allocate adequate financial resources to keep advancing this agenda.

C-Peptide and cardiovascular risk factors among young adults in a southern Brazilian cohort

BACKGROUND

Proinsulin connecting peptide (C-Peptide) is a marker of the beta-cell function and has been considered a marker of insulin resistance whose evidence suggests were associated with cardiovascular mortality. Our study aims to evaluate the association of C-Peptide with metabolic cardiovascular risk factors among young adults followed since birth in southern Brazil.

METHODS

In 1982, maternity hospital in Pelotas, a southern Brazilian city, were visited daily and all births were identified. Live births whose family lived in the urban area of the city were identified, their mothers interviewed, and these subjects have been prospectively followed. Casual hyperglycemia patients were excluded from analysis. C-Peptide was assessed at 23 years, when transversely analyzed its association with cardiometabolic and hemodynamic risk factors, and longitudinally 30 years of age.

RESULTS

At age 23, 4297 individuals were evaluated, and C-Peptide was measured in 3.807. In a cross-sectional analysis at 23 years of age, C-Peptide was positively associated with waist circumference, body mass index, glycaemia, triglycerides, and C-reactive protein. The association with HDL cholesterol was negative. In the longitudinal analysis at 30 years, C-Peptide remained associated with BMI, waist circumference, glycated hemoglobin, triglycerides, and C-reactive protein, whereas the association was negative for HDL.

CONCLUSION

In the Pelotas birth cohort, the C-Peptide was associated with obesity indicators (waist circumference and BMI) cross-sectional (23 years) and longitudinal (30 years). We also observed cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of C-Peptide with cardiometabolic and inflammatory risk factors.

[Non-communicable diseases: risk factors and actions for their prevention and control in CubaDoenças não transmissíveis: fatores de risco e ações para sua prevenção e controle em Cuba]

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent one of the greatest challenges for development of the 21st century due to their devastating social, economic and public health impact. The objective of this article are to describe the evolution and risk factors for NCDs in Cuba, mainly in the period 1990-2015, to outline actions undertaken by the Ministry of Public Health of Cuba, and to highlight the most important challenges with a focus on their prevention and control. The information is based on data collected and published by the Directorate of Medical Records and Health Statistics, research on risk factors, other studies and documentation of comprehensive actions. Mortality in Cuba is determined by four major health problems: cardiovascular diseases, malignant tumors, chronic diseases of the lower respiratory tract and diabetes mellitus, which together cause 68.0% of deaths. Cancer presents a growing trend, and chronic kidney disease emerges as a serious health problem. Cuba has a known baseline on risk factors, and hypertension and tobacco consumption are the main factors related to NCDs mortality. In line with the importance of these diseases, there are milestones and interventions with a positive impact, as well as gaps and challenges within the framework of the World Health Organization's Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of NCDs.

Virologic failure and mortality in older ART initiators in a multisite Latin American and Caribbean Cohort

INTRODUCTION

The "greying" of the HIV epidemic necessitates a better understanding of the healthcare needs of older HIV-positive adults. As these individuals age, it is unclear whether comorbidities and their associated therapies or the ageing process itself alter the response to antiretroviral therapy (ART). In this study, HIV treatment outcomes and corresponding risk factors were compared between older ART initiators and those who were younger using data from the Caribbean, Central and South America Network for HIV Epidemiology (CCASAnet).

METHODS

HIV-positive adults (≥18 years) initiating ART at nine sites in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico and Peru were included. Patients were classified as older (≥50 years) or younger (<50 years) based on age at ART initiation. ART effectiveness was measured using three outcomes: death, virologic failure and ART treatment modification. Cox regression models for each outcome compared risk between older and younger patients, adjusting for other covariates.

RESULTS

Among 26,311 patients initiating ART between 1996 and 2016, 3389 (13%) were ≥50 years. The majority of patients in both ≥50 and <50 age groups received a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen (89% vs. 87%), did not have AIDS at baseline (63% vs. 62%), and were male (59% vs. 58%). Older patients had a higher risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.64; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.48 to 1.83) and a lower risk of virologic failure (aHR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.84). There was no difference in risk of ART modification (aHR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.06). Risk factors for death, virologic failure and treatment modification were similar for each group.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age at ART initiation was associated with increased mortality and decreased risk of virologic failure in our cohort of more than 26,000 ART initiators in Latin America and the Caribbean. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study from the region to evaluate ART outcomes in this growing and important population. Given the complexity of issues related to ageing with HIV, a greater understanding is needed in order to properly respond to this shifting epidemic.

Hypertension control activities in Latin America and the Caribbean: opportunities for late-stage (T4) translation research

This work had two objectives: (1) to identify the extent of the problem and gaps pertaining to hypertension control in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and (2) to identify the potential role for late-stage (T4) translation research to tackle the current and future hypertension burden in that region. We explored the extent of the problem and the potential opportunities to use late-stage (T4) translation research to address it. We analyzed calls to action and policies implemented within several LAC countries and also at the regional level. Some LAC countries are currently developing comprehensive plans for controlling noncommunicable diseases. Additionally, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) is working on implementing a comprehensive plan of action within the PAHO Strategy for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases. These endeavors underscore the need for and the relevance of implementing effective, evidence-based, affordable interventions for treating and controlling hypertension. In these efforts, late-stage (T4) translation research can help to determine the best strategies for delivery of hypertension control. This late-stage (T4) translation research should involve all relevant stakeholders and partners in order to best enhance and scale up appropriate, affordable, and sustainable public health interventions.

Analysis of mortality trends due to cardiovascular diseases in Panama, 2001-2014

Objective

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are still the leading cause of death worldwide despite the recent decline in mortality rates attributable to CVD in Western Europe and the Americas. The aim of this study is to investigate mortality trends due to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke in Panama from 2001 to 2014, as well as the mortality differences by sex and age groups.

Methods

Data were obtained from the National Mortality Register. The International Classification of Diseases 10th revision codes (ICD-10) I20–I25 and I60–I69 were used for IHD and stroke, respectively. Age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated using the world population of the WHO as standard. Trends were analysed using Joinpoint Regression Program and annual percentage changes (APC) were estimated.

Results

From 2010, the IHD mortality trend began to decline in the whole population of Panama (APC −4.7%, p<0.05). From 2001 to 2014, a decline in the trend for IHD mortality was observed (APC −1.7%, p<0.05) in women, but not in men. Stroke mortality showed a significant annual decline during the study period (APC −3.8%, p<0.05) and it was more pronounced in women (APC −4.5%, p<0.05) than in men (APC −3.3%, p<0.05).

Conclusions

In Panama, the mortality rates from IHD and stroke have declined in recent years. Better access to healthcare, improved treatment of acute IHD and stroke, low tobacco consumption and better control of hypertension probably account for a significant part of this mortality reduction.