Biomarker-Guided Adaptive Trial Designs in Phase II and Phase III: A Methodological Review

Biomarker-guided adaptive enrichment design with threshold detection for clinical trials with time-to-event outcome

Biomarker-guided designs are increasingly used to evaluate personalized treatments based on patients' biomarker status in Phase II and III clinical trials. With adaptive enrichment, these designs can improve the efficiency of evaluating the treatment effect in biomarker-positive patients by increasing their proportion in the randomized trial. While time-to-event outcomes are often used as the primary endpoint to measure treatment effects for a new therapy in severe diseases like cancer and cardiovascular diseases, there is limited research on biomarker-guided adaptive enrichment trials in this context. Such trials almost always adopt hazard ratio methods for statistical measurement of treatment effects. In contrast, restricted mean survival time (RMST) has gained popularity for analyzing time-to-event outcomes because it offers more straightforward interpretations of treatment effects and does not require the proportional hazard assumption. This paper proposes a two-stage biomarker-guided adaptive RMST design with threshold detection and patient enrichment. We develop sophisticated methods for identifying the optimal biomarker threshold and biomarker-positive subgroup, treatment effect estimators, and approaches for type I error rate, power analysis, and sample size calculation. We present a numerical example of re-designing an oncology trial. An extensive simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed design.

Characterization of the Biological Variability of the Angiome Biomarkers over Time in Healthy Participants

BACKGROUND

Biomarker analyses are an integral part of cancer research. Despite the intense efforts to identify and characterize biomarkers in patients with cancer, little is known regarding the natural variation of biomarkers in healthy populations. Here we conducted a clinical study to evaluate the natural variability of biomarkers over time in healthy participants.

METHODS

The angiome multiplex array, a panel of 25 circulating protein biomarkers, was assessed in 28 healthy participants across eight timepoints over the span of 60 days. We utilized the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) to quantify the reliability of the biomarkers. Adjusted ICC values were calculated under the framework of a linear mixed-effects model, taking into consideration age, sex, body mass index, fasting status, and sampling factors.

RESULTS

ICC was calculated to determine the reliability of each biomarker. Hepatocyte growth factor was the most stable marker (ICC = 0.973), while platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF)-BB was the most variable marker (ICC = 0.167). In total, ICC analyses revealed that 22 out of 25 measured biomarkers display good (≥0.4) to excellent (>0.75) ICC values. Three markers (PDGF-BB, TGFβ1, PDGF-AA) had ICC values <0.4. Greater age was associated with higher IL6 (P = 0.0114). Higher body mass index was associated with higher levels of IL6 (P = 0.0003) and VEGF-R3 (P = 0.0045).

CONCLUSIONS

Of the 25 protein biomarkers measured over this short time period, 22 markers were found to have good or excellent ICC values, providing additional validation for this biomarker assay.

IMPACT

These data further support the validation of the angiome biomarker assay and its application as an integrated biomarker in clinical trial testing.

Serum exocrine pancreas enzymes are biomarkers of immunotherapy response in new-onset type 1 diabetes

Introduction

The immune-mediated destruction of insulin-producing β-cells characterizes type 1 diabetes. Nevertheless, exocrine pancreatic enzymes, including amylase, lipase, and trypsin, are also significantly reduced in type 1 diabetes. With an immunotherapy now approved to treat early-stage type 1 diabetes, biomarkers to delineate response to treatment are needed. No study has yet evaluated whether serum exocrine pancreatic enzymes could delineate immunotherapy responders and non-responders.

Methods

In this novel study, we sought to identify longitudinal trends in the most commonly measured circulating exocrine enzymes before and after treatment with anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) and pegylated granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (GCSF) in individuals with new-onset type 1 diabetes (n=34). We defined response to immunotherapy as participants with at least 60% of baseline area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide levels after a 2-hour mixed meal tolerance test (MMTT) at two years post-treatment. In the overall study (n=89), 42% of treated and 17% of placebo participants met this definition. Due to constraints of sample availability, we compared longitudinal serum amylase, lipase, and trypsin levels in a subset of responders to therapy (n=4-6), placebo "responders" (n=2), treated non-responders (n=16), and placebo non-responders (n=10).

Results

There were no differences in amylase levels between groups at baseline or six months post-treatment. Baseline levels of lipase and trypsin tended to be lower in responders; however, these variations were not significant in this small study sample. Lipase and trypsin improved to 115% of baseline in responders to immunotherapy six months after treatment and declined to 80-90% of baseline in non-responders and placebo participants (p=0.03). This difference was not present before the six-month time point.

Discussion

Our findings provide preliminary evidence that the exocrine pancreatic enzymes lipase and trypsin may be useful biomarkers of response to immunotherapy in type 1 diabetes. Further studies with larger numbers of participants are warranted.

Alpha-fetoprotein, glypican-3, and kininogen-1 as biomarkers for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

The hepatocarcinoma (HCC) is the most important liver tumor. It represents 90% of liver cancer cases. One of the main problems is the limited prompt cancer diagnosis and the advanced stages where the chances of treatment are limited. The main diagnostic methods for HCC are imaging techniques and liver biopsy. With advances in technology, proteins as significant diagnostic biomarkers have increased. The objective of this review is to describe the role of Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), Glipican 3 (GPC-3), and Kininogen 1 (KNG-1) as biomarkers for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma. A systematic search of studies was carried out in the literature and the diagnostic values of these proteins were compared. The results showed that the combined use of biomarkers increases the diagnostic capacity for the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma.

The PERMIT guidelines for designing and implementing all stages of personalised medicine research

Personalised medicine (PM) research programmes represent the modern paradigm of complex cross-disciplinary research, integrating innovative methodologies and technologies. Methodological research is required to ensure that these programmes generate robust and reproducible evidence. The PERMIT project developed methodological recommendations for each stage of the PM research pipeline. A common methodology was applied to develop the recommendations in collaboration with relevant stakeholders. Each stage was addressed by a dedicated working group, specializing in the subject matter. A series of scoping reviews that mapped the methods used in PM research and a gap analysis were followed by working sessions and workshops where field experts analyzed the gaps and developed recommendations. Through collaborative writing and consensus building exercises, the final recommendations were defined. They provide guidance for the design, implementation and evaluation of PM research, from patient and omics data collection and sample size calculation to the selection of the most appropriate stratification approach, including machine learning modeling, the development and application of reliable preclinical models, and the selection and implementation of the most appropriate clinical trial design. The dissemination and implementation of these recommendations by all stakeholders can improve the quality of PM research, enhance the robustness of evidence, and improve patient care.

Testing for a treatment effect in a selected subgroup

There is a growing interest in clinical trials that investigate how patients may respond differently to an experimental treatment depending on the basis of some biomarker measured on a continuous scale, and in particular to identify some threshold value for the biomarker above which a positive treatment effect can be considered to have been demonstrated. This can be statistically challenging when the same data are used both to select the threshold and to test the treatment effect in the subpopulation that it defines. This paper describes a hierarchical testing framework to give familywise type I error rate control in this setting and proposes two specific tests that can be used within this framework. One, a simple test based on the estimated value from a linear regression model with treatment by biomarker interaction, is powerful but can lead to type I error rate inflation if the assumptions of the linear model are not met. The other is more robust to these assumptions, but can be slightly less powerful when the assumptions hold.

Unlocking the potential of immunotherapy in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer: rationale, challenges, and novel strategies

Ovarian cancer is a significant global health challenge, with cytoreductive surgery and platinum-based chemotherapy serving as established primary treatments. Unfortunately, most patients relapse and ultimately become platinum-resistant, at which point there are limited effective treatment options. Given the success of immunotherapy in inducing durable treatment responses in several other cancers, its potential in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (PROC) is currently being investigated. However, in unselected advanced ovarian cancer populations, researchers have reported low response rates to immune checkpoint inhibition, and thus far, no validated biomarkers are predictive of response. Understanding the intricate interplay between platinum resistance, immune recognition, and the tumour microenvironment (TME) is crucial. In this review, we examine the research challenges encountered thus far, the biological rationale for immunotherapy, the underlying mechanisms of immune resistance, and new strategies to overcome resistance.

Toward Precision in Critical Care Research: Methods for Observational and Interventional Studies

Critical care trials evaluate the effect of interventions in patients with diverse personal histories and causes of illness, often under the umbrella of heterogeneous clinical syndromes, such as sepsis or acute respiratory distress syndrome. Given this variation, it is reasonable to expect that the effect of treatment on outcomes may differ for individuals with variable characteristics. However, in randomized controlled trials, efficacy is typically assessed by the average treatment effect (ATE), which quantifies the average effect of the intervention on the outcome in the study population. Importantly, the ATE may hide variations of the treatment's effect on a clinical outcome across levels of patient characteristics, which may erroneously lead to the conclusion that an intervention does not work overall when it may in fact benefit certain patients. In this review, we describe methodological approaches for assessing heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE), including expert-derived subgrouping, data-driven subgrouping, baseline risk modeling, treatment effect modeling, and individual treatment rule estimation. Next, we outline how insights from HTE analyses can be incorporated into the design of clinical trials. Finally, we propose a research agenda for advancing the field and bringing HTE approaches to the bedside.

Use of Seamless Study Designs in Oncology Clinical Development- A Survey Conducted by IDSWG Oncology Sub-team

Seamless study designs have the potential to accelerate clinical development. The use of innovative seamless designs has been increasing in the oncology area; however, while the concept of seamless designs becomes more popular and accepted, many challenges remain in both the design and conduct of these trials. This may be especially true when seamless designs are used in late phase development supporting regulatory decision-making. The Innovative Design Scientific Working Group (IDSWG) Oncology team conducted a survey to understand the current use of seamless study designs for registration purposes in oncology clinical development. The survey was designed to provide insights into the benefits and to identify the roadblocks. A total of 16 questions were included in the survey that was distributed using the ASA Biopharmaceutical Section and IDSWG email listings from August to September 2022. A total of 51 responses were received, with 39 (76%) respondents indicating that their organizations had seamless oncology studies in planning or implementation for registration purposes. Detailed survey results are presented in the manuscript. Overall, while seamless designs offer advantages in terms of timeline reduction and cost saving, they also present challenges related to additional complexity and the need for efficient surrogate clinical endpoints in oncology drug development.

Cross-validated risk scores adaptive enrichment (CADEN) design

We propose a Cross-validated ADaptive ENrichment design (CADEN) in which a trial population is enriched with a subpopulation of patients who are predicted to benefit from the treatment more than an average patient (the sensitive group). This subpopulation is found using a risk score constructed from the baseline (potentially high-dimensional) information about patients. The design incorporates an early stopping rule for futility. Simulation studies are used to assess the properties of CADEN against the original (non-enrichment) cross-validated risk scores (CVRS) design which constructs a risk score at the end of the trial. We show that when there exists a sensitive group of patients, CADEN achieves a higher power and a reduction in the expected sample size compared to the CVRS design. We illustrate the application of the design in two real clinical trials. We conclude that the new design offers improved statistical efficiency over the existing non-enrichment method, as well as increased benefit to patients. The method has been implemented in an R package caden.

Statistical Considerations and Software for Designing Sequential, Multiple Assignment, Randomized Trials (SMART) with a Survival Final Endpoint

Sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (SMART) designs are appropriate for comparing adaptive treatment interventions, in which intermediate outcomes (called tailoring variables) guide subsequent treatment decisions for individual patients. Within a SMART design, patients may be re-randomized to subsequent treatments following the outcomes of their intermediate assessments. In this paper, we provide an overview of statistical considerations necessary to design and implement a two-stage SMART design with a binary tailoring variable and a survival final endpoint. A chronic lymphocytic leukemia trial with a final endpoint of progression-free survival is used as an example for the simulations to assess how design parameters, including, choice of randomization ratios for each stage of randomization, and response rates of the tailoring variable affect the statistical power. We assess the choice of weights from restricted re-randomization on data analyses and appropriate hazard rate assumptions. Specifically, for a given first-stage therapy and prior to the tailoring variable assessment, we assume equal hazard rates for all patients randomized to a treatment arm. After the tailoring variable assessment, individual hazard rates are assumed for each intervention path. Simulation studies demonstrate that the response rate of the binary tailoring variable impacts power as it directly impacts the distribution of patients. We also confirm that when the first stage randomization is 1:1, it is not necessary to consider the first stage randomization ratio when applying the weights. We provide an R-shiny application for obtaining power for a given sample size for SMART designs.

Long-term effects on clinical event, mental health, and related outcomes of CPAP for obstructive sleep apnea: a systematic review

STUDY OBJECTIVES

We performed a systematic review of long-term health outcomes of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) use in adults with obstructive sleep apnea.

METHODS

We updated prior systematic reviews with searches in multiple databases through January 3, 2023. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and adjusted nonrandomized comparative studies that reported prespecified long-term (mostly > 1 year) health outcomes. We assessed risk of bias, conducted meta-analyses, and evaluated strength of evidence.

RESULTS

We found 38 eligible studies (16 trials, 22 observational). All conclusions were of low strength of evidence given study and data limitations. RCTs found no evidence of effect of CPAP on mortality (summary effect size [ES] 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66, 1.21); inclusion of adjusted nonrandomized comparative studies yields an association with reduced risk of death (ES 0.57; 95% CI 0.44, 0.73). RCTs found no evidence of effects of CPAP for cardiovascular death (ES 0.99; 95% CI 0.64, 1.53), stroke (ES 0.99; 95% CI 0.73, 1.35), myocardial infarction (ES 1.05; 95% CI 0.78, 1.41), incident atrial fibrillation (ES 0.89; 95% CI 0.48, 1.63), or composite cardiovascular outcomes (all statistically nonsignificant). RCTs found no evidence of effects for incident diabetes (ES 1.02; 95% CI 0.69, 1.51) or accidents (all nonsignificant) and no clinically significant effects on depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, or cognitive function.

CONCLUSIONS

Whether CPAP use for obstructive sleep apnea affects long-term health outcomes remains largely unanswered. RCTs and nonrandomized comparative studies are inconsistent regarding the effect of CPAP on mortality. Current studies are underpowered, with relatively short duration follow-up and methodological limitations.

CITATION

Balk EM, Adam GP, Cao W, Bhuma MR, D'Ambrosio C, Trikalinos TA. Long-term effects on clinical event, mental health, and related outcomes of CPAP for obstructive sleep apnea: a systematic review. J Clin Sleep Med. 2024;20(6):895-909.

Isotonic design for single-arm biomarker stratified trials

In single-arm trials with a predefined subgroup based on baseline biomarkers, it is often assumed that a biomarker defined subgroup, the biomarker positive subgroup, has the same or higher response to treatment compared to its complement, the biomarker negative subgroup. The goal is to determine if the treatment is effective in each of the subgroups or in the biomarker positive subgroup only or not effective at all. We propose the isotonic stratified design for this problem. The design has a joint set of decision rules for biomarker positive and negative subjects and utilizes joint estimation of response probabilities using assumed monotonicity of response between the biomarker negative and positive subgroups. The new design reduces the sample size requirement when compared to running two Simon's designs in each biomarker positive and negative. For example, the new design requires 23%-35% fewer patients than running two Simon's designs for scenarios we considered. Alternatively, the new design allows evaluating the response probability in both biomarker negative and biomarker positive subgroups using only 40% more patients needed for running Simon's design in the biomarker positive subgroup only.

Covariate-adaptive biased coin randomization for master protocols with multiple interventions and biomarker-stratified allocation

In a multi-arm trial with predefined subgroups for each intervention to target, it is often desirable to enrich assignment to an intervention by enrolling more biomarker-positive participants to the intervention. We describe how to implement a biased coin design to achieve desired allocation ratios among interventions and between the number of biomarker-positive and biomarker-negative participants assigned to each intervention. We illustrate the proposed method with the randomization algorithm implemented in the Precision Interventions for Severe and/or Exacerbation-prone Asthma (PrecISE) trial.

New insights into adaptive enrichment designs

The transition towards personalized medicine is happening and the new experimental framework is raising several challenges, from a clinical, ethical, logistical, regulatory, and statistical perspective. To face these challenges, innovative study designs with increasing complexity have been proposed. In particular, adaptive enrichment designs are becoming more attractive for their flexibility. However, these procedures rely on an increasing number of parameters that are unknown at the planning stage of the clinical trial, so the study design requires particular care. This review is dedicated to adaptive enrichment studies with a focus on design aspects. While many papers deal with methods for the analysis, the sample size determination and the optimal allocation problem have been overlooked. We discuss the multiple aspects involved in adaptive enrichment designs that contribute to their advantages and disadvantages. The decision-making process of whether or not it is worth enriching should be driven by clinical and ethical considerations as well as scientific and statistical concerns.

Adaptive enrichment designs with a continuous biomarker

A popular design for clinical trials assessing targeted therapies is the two-stage adaptive enrichment design with recruitment in stage 2 limited to a biomarker-defined subgroup chosen based on data from stage 1. The data-dependent selection leads to statistical challenges if data from both stages are used to draw inference on treatment effects in the selected subgroup. If subgroups considered are nested, as when defined by a continuous biomarker, treatment effect estimates in different subgroups follow the same distribution as estimates in a group-sequential trial. This result is used to obtain tests controlling the familywise type I error rate (FWER) for six simple subgroup selection rules, one of which also controls the FWER for any selection rule. Two approaches are proposed: one based on multivariate normal distributions suitable if the number of possible subgroups, k, is small, and one based on Brownian motion approximations suitable for large k. The methods, applicable in the wide range of settings with asymptotically normal test statistics, are illustrated using survival data from a breast cancer trial.

An adaptive biomarker basket design in phase II oncology trials

The phase II basket trial in oncology is a novel design that enables the simultaneous assessment of treatment effects of one anti-cancer targeted agent in multiple cancer types. Biomarkers could potentially associate with the clinical outcomes and re-define clinically meaningful treatment effects. It is therefore natural to develop a biomarker-based basket design to allow the prospective enrichment of the trials with the adaptive selection of the biomarker-positive (BM+) subjects who are most sensitive to the experimental treatment. We propose a two-stage phase II adaptive biomarker basket (ABB) design based on a potential predictive biomarker measured on a continuous scale. At Stage 1, the design incorporates a biomarker cutoff estimation procedure via a hierarchical Bayesian model with biomarker as a covariate (HBMbc). At Stage 2, the design enrolls only BM+ subjects, defined as those with the biomarker values exceeding the biomarker cutoff within each cancer type, and subsequently assesses the early efficacy and/or futility stopping through the pre-defined interim analyses. At the end of the trial, the response rate of all BM+ subjects for each cancer type can guide drug development, while the data from all subjects can be used to further model the relationship between the biomarker value and the clinical outcome for potential future research. The extensive simulation studies show that the ABB design could produce a good estimate of the biomarker cutoff to select BM+ subjects with high accuracy and could outperform the existing phase II basket biomarker cutoff design under various scenarios.

Design and analysis of umbrella trials: Where do we stand?

Background

The efficiencies that master protocol designs can bring to modern drug development have seen their increased utilization in oncology. Growing interest has also resulted in their consideration in non-oncology settings. Umbrella trials are one class of master protocol design that evaluates multiple targeted therapies in a single disease setting. Despite the existence of several reviews of master protocols, the statistical considerations of umbrella trials have received more limited attention.

Methods

We conduct a systematic review of the literature on umbrella trials, examining both the statistical methods that are available for their design and analysis, and also their use in practice. We pay particular attention to considerations for umbrella designs applied outside of oncology.

Findings

We identified 38 umbrella trials. To date, most umbrella trials have been conducted in early phase settings (73.7%, 28/38) and in oncology (92.1%, 35/38). The quality of statistical information available about conducted umbrella trials to date is poor; for example, it was impossible to ascertain how sample size was determined in the majority of trials (55.3%, 21/38). The literature on statistical methods for umbrella trials is currently sparse.

Conclusions

Umbrella trials have potentially great utility to expedite drug development, including outside of oncology. However, to enable lessons to be effectively learned from early use of such designs, there is a need for higher-quality reporting of umbrella trials. Furthermore, if the potential of umbrella trials is to be realized, further methodological research is required.

Congestion in heart failure: a circulating biomarker-based perspective. A review from the Biomarkers Working Group of the Heart Failure Association, European Society of Cardiology

Congestion is a cardinal sign of heart failure (HF). In the past, it was seen as a homogeneous epiphenomenon that identified patients with advanced HF. However, current evidence shows that congestion in HF varies in quantity and distribution. This updated view advocates for a congestive-driven classification of HF according to onset (acute vs. chronic), regional distribution (systemic vs. pulmonary), compartment of distribution (intravascular vs. extravascular), and clinical vs. subclinical. Thus, this review will focus on the utility of circulating biomarkers for assessing and managing the different fluid overload phenotypes. This discussion focused on the clinical utility of the natriuretic peptides, carbohydrate antigen 125 (also called mucin 16), bio-adrenomedullin and mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin, ST2 (also known as interleukin-1 receptor-like 1), cluster of differentiation 146, troponin, C-terminal pro-endothelin-1, and parameters of haemoconcentration. The utility of circulation biomarkers on top of clinical evaluation, haemodynamics, and imaging needs to be better determined by dedicated studies. Some multiparametric frameworks in which these tools contribute to management are proposed.

Innovative Designs and Logistical Considerations for Expedited Clinical Development of Combination Disease-Modifying Treatments for Type 1 Diabetes

It has been 100 years since the life-saving discovery of insulin, yet daily management of type 1 diabetes (T1D) remains challenging. Even with closed-loop systems, the prevailing need for persons with T1D to attempt to match the kinetics of insulin activity with the kinetics of carbohydrate metabolism, alongside dynamic life factors affecting insulin requirements, results in the need for frequent interventions to adjust insulin dosages or consume carbohydrates to correct mismatches. Moreover, peripheral insulin dosing leaves the liver underinsulinized and hyperglucagonemic and peripheral tissues overinsulinized relative to their normal physiologic roles in glucose homeostasis. Disease-modifying therapies (DMT) to preserve and/or restore functional β-cell mass with controlled or corrected autoimmunity would simplify exogenous insulin need, thereby reducing disease mortality, morbidity, and management burdens. However, identifying effective DMTs for T1D has proven complex. There is some consensus that combination DMTs are needed for more meaningful clinical benefit. Other complexities are addressable with more innovative trial designs and logistics. While no DMT has yet been approved for marketing, existing regulatory guidance provides opportunities to further "de-risk" development. The T1D development ecosystem can accelerate progress by using more innovative ways for testing DMTs for T1D. This perspective outlines suggestions for accelerating evaluation of candidate T1D DMTs, including combination therapies, by use of innovative trial designs, enhanced logistical coordination of efforts, and regulatory guidance for expedited development, combination therapies, and adaptive designs.

The road to precision medicine: Eliminating the "One Size Fits All" approach in Alzheimer's disease

The expeditious advancement of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a threat to the global healthcare system, that is further supplemented by therapeutic failure. The prevalence of this disorder has been expected to quadrupole by 2050, thereby exerting a tremendous economic pressure on medical sector, worldwide. Thus, there is a dire need of a change in conventional approaches and adopt a novel methodology of disease prevention, treatment and diagnosis. Precision medicine offers a personalized approach to disease management, It is dependent upon genetic, environmental and lifestyle factors associated with the individual, aiding to develop tailored therapeutics. Precision Medicine Initiatives are launched, worldwide, to facilitate the integration of personalized models and clinical medicine. The review aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the neuroinflammatory processes causing AD, giving a brief overview of the disease interventions. This is further followed by the role of precision medicine in AD, constituting the genetic perspectives, operation of personalized form of medicine and optimization of clinical trials with the 3 R's, showcasing an in-depth understanding of this novel approach in varying aspects of the healthcare industry, to provide an opportunity to the global AD researchers to elucidate suitable therapeutic regimens in clinically and pathologically complex diseases, like AD.

Selecting predictive biomarkers from genomic data

Recently there have been tremendous efforts to develop statistical procedures which allow to determine subgroups of patients for which certain treatments are effective. This article focuses on the selection of prognostic and predictive genetic biomarkers based on a relatively large number of candidate Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs). We consider models which include prognostic markers as main effects and predictive markers as interaction effects with treatment. We compare different high-dimensional selection approaches including adaptive lasso, a Bayesian adaptive version of the Sorted L-One Penalized Estimator (SLOBE) and a modified version of the Bayesian Information Criterion (mBIC2). These are compared with classical multiple testing procedures for individual markers. Having identified predictive markers we consider several different approaches how to specify subgroups susceptible to treatment. Our main conclusion is that selection based on mBIC2 and SLOBE has similar predictive performance as the adaptive lasso while including substantially fewer biomarkers.

Study designs for clinical trials applied to personalised medicine: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Personalised medicine (PM) allows treating patients based on their individual demographic, genomic or biological characteristics for tailoring the 'right treatment for the right person at the right time'. Robust methodology is required for PM clinical trials, to correctly identify groups of participants and treatments. As an initial step for the development of new recommendations on trial designs for PM, we aimed to present an overview of the study designs that have been used in this field.

DESIGN

Scoping review.

METHODS

We searched (April 2020) PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library for all reports in English, French, German, Italian and Spanish, describing study designs for clinical trials applied to PM. Study selection and data extraction were performed in duplicate resolving disagreements by consensus or by involving a third expert reviewer. We extracted information on the characteristics of trial designs and examples of current applications of these approaches. The extracted information was used to generate a new classification of trial designs for PM.

RESULTS

We identified 21 trial designs, 10 subtypes and 30 variations of trial designs applied to PM, which we classified into four core categories (namely, Master protocol, Randomise-all, Biomarker strategy and Enrichment). We found 131 clinical trials using these designs, of which the great majority were master protocols (86/131, 65.6%). Most of the trials were phase II studies (75/131, 57.2%) in the field of oncology (113/131, 86.3%). We identified 34 main features of trial designs regarding different aspects (eg, framework, control group, randomisation). The four core categories and 34 features were merged into a double-entry table to create a new classification of trial designs for PM.

CONCLUSIONS

A variety of trial designs exists and is applied to PM. A new classification of trial designs is proposed to help readers to navigate the complex field of PM clinical trials.

Early molecular markers for retrospective biodosimetry and prediction of acute health effects

Radiation-induced biological changes occurring within hours and days after irradiation can be potentially used for either exposure reconstruction (retrospective dosimetry) or the prediction of consecutively occurring acute or chronic health effects. The advantage of molecular protein or gene expression (GE) (mRNA) marker lies in their capability for early (1-3 days after irradiation), high-throughput and point-of-care diagnosis, required for the prediction of the acute radiation syndrome (ARS) in radiological or nuclear scenarios. These molecular marker in most cases respond differently regarding exposure characteristics such as e.g. radiation quality, dose, dose rate and most importantly over time. Changes over time are in particular challenging and demand certain strategies to deal with. With this review, we provide an overview and will focus on already identified and used mRNA GE and protein markers of the peripheral blood related to the ARS. These molecules are examined in light of 'ideal' characteristics of a biomarkers (e.g. easy accessible, early response, signal persistency) and the validation degree. Finally, we present strategies on the use of these markers considering challenges as their variation over time and future developments regarding e.g. origin of samples, point of care and high-throughput diagnosis.

Can Systems Biology Advance Clinical Precision Oncology?

Precision oncology is perceived as a way forward to treat individual cancer patients. However, knowing particular cancer mutations is not enough for optimal therapeutic treatment, because cancer genotype-phenotype relationships are nonlinear and dynamic. Systems biology studies the biological processes at the systems' level, using an array of techniques, ranging from statistical methods to network reconstruction and analysis, to mathematical modeling. Its goal is to reconstruct the complex and often counterintuitive dynamic behavior of biological systems and quantitatively predict their responses to environmental perturbations. In this paper, we review the impact of systems biology on precision oncology. We show examples of how the analysis of signal transduction networks allows to dissect resistance to targeted therapies and inform the choice of combinations of targeted drugs based on tumor molecular alterations. Patient-specific biomarkers based on dynamical models of signaling networks can have a greater prognostic value than conventional biomarkers. These examples support systems biology models as valuable tools to advance clinical and translational oncological research.

Of some innovations in clinical trial design in hematology and oncology

The design of clinical trials, formalized in the immediate post-war period, has undergone major changes due to therapeutic innovations, particularly the arrival of targeted therapies in onco-hematology. The traditional phase I-II-III regimen is regularly questioned and multiple adaptations are proposed. This article proposes to expose some of these modifications and the issues they lead to.

Results of the Seventh Scientific Workshop of ECCO: Precision Medicine in IBD-Disease Outcome and Response to Therapy

Inflammatory bowel diseases [IBD] are a heterogeneous spectrum with two extreme phenotypes, Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC], which both represent numerous phenotypical variations. Hence, we should no longer approach all IBD patients similarly, but rather aim to rethink clinical classifications and modify treatment algorithms to usher in a new era of precision medicine in IBD. This scientific ECCO workshop aims to provide a state-of-the-art overview on prognostic and predictive markers, shed light on key questions in biomarker development, propose best practices in IBD biomarker development [including trial design], and discuss the potential for multi-omic data integration to help drive further advances to make precision medicine a reality in IBD.

Randomized test-treatment studies with an outlook on adaptive designs

Background

Diagnostic accuracy studies aim to examine the diagnostic accuracy of a new experimental test, but do not address the actual merit of the resulting diagnostic information to a patient in clinical practice. In order to assess the impact of diagnostic information on subsequent treatment strategies regarding patient-relevant outcomes, randomized test-treatment studies were introduced. Various designs for randomized test-treatment studies, including an evaluation of biomarkers as part of randomized biomarker-guided treatment studies, are suggested in the literature, but the nomenclature is not consistent.

Methods

The aim was to provide a clear description of the different study designs within a pre-specified framework, considering their underlying assumptions, advantages as well as limitations and derivation of effect sizes required for sample size calculations. Furthermore, an outlook on adaptive designs within randomized test-treatment studies is given.

Results

The need to integrate adaptive design procedures in randomized test-treatment studies is apparent. The derivation of effect sizes induces that sample size calculation will always be based on rather vague assumptions resulting in over- or underpowered study results. Therefore, it might be advantageous to conduct a sample size re-estimation based on a nuisance parameter during the ongoing trial.

Conclusions

Due to their increased complexity, compared to common treatment trials, the implementation of randomized test-treatment studies poses practical challenges including a huge uncertainty regarding study parameters like the expected outcome in specific subgroups or disease prevalence which might affect the sample size calculation. Since research on adaptive designs within randomized test-treatment studies is limited so far, further research is recommended.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1186/s12874-021-01293-y).

Optimizing subgroup selection in two-stage adaptive enrichment and umbrella designs

We design two‐stage confirmatory clinical trials that use adaptation to find the subgroup of patients who will benefit from a new treatment, testing for a treatment effect in each of two disjoint subgroups. Our proposal allows aspects of the trial, such as recruitment probabilities of each group, to be altered at an interim analysis. We use the conditional error rate approach to implement these adaptations with protection of overall error rates. Applying a Bayesian decision‐theoretic framework, we optimize design parameters by maximizing a utility function that takes the population prevalence of the subgroups into account. We show results for traditional trials with familywise error rate control (using a closed testing procedure) as well as for umbrella trials in which only the per‐comparison type 1 error rate is controlled. We present numerical examples to illustrate the optimization process and the effectiveness of the proposed designs.

Statistical consideration when adding new arms to ongoing clinical trials: the potentials and the caveats

BACKGROUND

Platform trials improve the efficiency of the drug development process through flexible features such as adding and dropping arms as evidence emerges. The benefits and practical challenges of implementing novel trial designs have been discussed widely in the literature, yet less consideration has been given to the statistical implications of adding arms. MAIN: We explain different statistical considerations that arise from allowing new research interventions to be added in for ongoing studies. We present recent methodology development on addressing these issues and illustrate design and analysis approaches that might be enhanced to provide robust inference from platform trials. We also discuss the implication of changing the control arm, how patient eligibility for different arms may complicate the trial design and analysis, and how operational bias may arise when revealing some results of the trials. Lastly, we comment on the appropriateness and the application of platform trials in phase II and phase III settings, as well as publicly versus industry-funded trials.

CONCLUSION

Platform trials provide great opportunities for improving the efficiency of evaluating interventions. Although several statistical issues are present, there are a range of methods available that allow robust and efficient design and analysis of these trials.

A Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Design for Simultaneous Biomarker-Based Subgroup Selection and Efficacy Evaluation

The success of drug development of targeted therapy often hinges on an appropriate selection of the sensitive patient population, mostly based on patients' biomarker levels. At the planning stage of a phase II study, although a potential biomarker may have been identified, a threshold value for defining sensitive patient population is often unavailable for adopting many existing biomarker-guided designs. To address this issue, we propose a two-stage design that allows for simultaneous biomarker threshold selection and efficacy evaluation while accommodating situations where the drug is efficacious in the entire patient population. The design uses a Bayesian decision-theoretic approach and incorporates the benefit and cost considerations of the study into a utility function. The operating characteristics of the proposed design under different scenarios are investigated via simulations. We also provide a discussion on the choice of the benefit and cost parameters in practice.

Sample size re-estimation in adaptive enrichment design

Clinical trial participants are often heterogeneous, which is a fundamental problem in the rapidly developing field of precision medicine. Participants heterogeneity causes considerable difficulty in the current phase III trial designs. Adaptive enrichment designs provide a flexible and intuitive solution. At the interim analysis, we enrich the subgroup of trial participants who have a higher likelihood to benefit from the new treatment. However, it is critical to control the level of the test size and maintain adequate power after enrichment of certain subgroup of participants. We develop two adaptive enrichment strategies with sample size re-estimation and verify their feasibility and practicability through extensive simulations and sensitivity analyses. The simulation studies show that the proposed methods can control the overall type I error rate and exhibit competitive improvement in terms of statistical power and expected sample size. The proposed designs are exemplified with a real trial application.

Adding flexibility to clinical trial designs: an example-based guide to the practical use of adaptive designs

Adaptive designs for clinical trials permit alterations to a study in response to accumulating data in order to make trials more flexible, ethical, and efficient. These benefits are achieved while preserving the integrity and validity of the trial, through the pre-specification and proper adjustment for the possible alterations during the course of the trial. Despite much research in the statistical literature highlighting the potential advantages of adaptive designs over traditional fixed designs, the uptake of such methods in clinical research has been slow. One major reason for this is that different adaptations to trial designs, as well as their advantages and limitations, remain unfamiliar to large parts of the clinical community. The aim of this paper is to clarify where adaptive designs can be used to address specific questions of scientific interest; we introduce the main features of adaptive designs and commonly used terminology, highlighting their utility and pitfalls, and illustrate their use through case studies of adaptive trials ranging from early-phase dose escalation to confirmatory phase III studies.

Transforming clinical trials in rheumatology: towards patient-centric precision medicine

Despite the success of targeted therapies in the treatment of inflammatory arthritides, the lack of predictive biomarkers drives a 'trial and error' approach to treatment allocation, leading to variable and/or unsatisfactory responses. In-depth characterization of the synovial tissue in rheumatoid arthritis, as well as psoriatic arthritis and spondyloarthritis, is bringing new insights into the diverse cellular and molecular features of these diseases and their potential links with different clinical and treatment-response phenotypes. Such progress raises the tantalizing prospect of improving response rates by matching the use of specific agents to the cognate target pathways that might drive particular disease subtypes in specific patient groups. Innovative patient-centric, molecular pathology-driven clinical trial approaches are needed to achieve this goal. Whilst progress is clearly being made, it is important to emphasize that this field is still in its infancy and there are a number of potential barriers to realizing the premise of patient-centric clinical trials.

The Evolution of Master Protocol Clinical Trial Designs: A Systematic Literature Review

PURPOSE

Recent years have seen a change in the way that clinical trials are being conducted. There has been a rise of designs more flexible than traditional adaptive and group sequential trials which allow the investigation of multiple substudies with possibly different objectives, interventions, and subgroups conducted within an overall trial structure, summarized by the term master protocol. This review aims to identify existing master protocol studies and summarize their characteristics. The review also identifies articles relevant to the design of master protocol trials, such as proposed trial designs and related methods.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive systematic search to review current literature on master protocol trials from a design and analysis perspective, focusing on platform trials and considering basket and umbrella trials. Articles were included regardless of statistical complexity and classified as reviews related to planned or conducted trials, trial designs, or statistical methods. The results of the literature search are reported, and some features of the identified articles are summarized.

FINDINGS

Most of the trials using master protocols were designed as single-arm (n = 29/50), Phase II trials (n = 32/50) in oncology (n = 42/50) using a binary endpoint (n = 26/50) and frequentist decision rules (n = 37/50). We observed an exponential increase in publications in this domain during the last few years in both planned and conducted trials, as well as relevant methods, which we assume has not yet reached its peak. Although many operational and statistical challenges associated with such trials remain, the general consensus seems to be that master protocols provide potentially enormous advantages in efficiency and flexibility of clinical drug development.

IMPLICATIONS

Master protocol trials and especially platform trials have the potential to revolutionize clinical drug development if the methodologic and operational challenges can be overcome.

The adaptive designs CONSORT extension (ACE) statement: a checklist with explanation and elaboration guideline for reporting randomised trials that use an adaptive design

Adaptive designs (ADs) allow pre-planned changes to an ongoing trial without compromising the validity of conclusions and it is essential to distinguish pre-planned from unplanned changes that may also occur. The reporting of ADs in randomised trials is inconsistent and needs improving. Incompletely reported AD randomised trials are difficult to reproduce and are hard to interpret and synthesise. This consequently hampers their ability to inform practice as well as future research and contributes to research waste. Better transparency and adequate reporting will enable the potential benefits of ADs to be realised.This extension to the Consolidated Standards Of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) 2010 statement was developed to enhance the reporting of randomised AD clinical trials. We developed an Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) guideline through a two-stage Delphi process with input from multidisciplinary key stakeholders in clinical trials research in the public and private sectors from 21 countries, followed by a consensus meeting. Members of the CONSORT Group were involved during the development process.The paper presents the ACE checklists for AD randomised trial reports and abstracts, as well as an explanation with examples to aid the application of the guideline. The ACE checklist comprises seven new items, nine modified items, six unchanged items for which additional explanatory text clarifies further considerations for ADs, and 20 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text. The ACE abstract checklist has one new item, one modified item, one unchanged item with additional explanatory text for ADs, and 15 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text.The intention is to enhance transparency and improve reporting of AD randomised trials to improve the interpretability of their results and reproducibility of their methods, results and inference. We also hope indirectly to facilitate the much-needed knowledge transfer of innovative trial designs to maximise their potential benefits. In order to encourage its wide dissemination this article is freely accessible on the BMJ and Trials journal websites."To maximise the benefit to society, you need to not just do research but do it well" Douglas G Altman.

The Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) statement: a checklist with explanation and elaboration guideline for reporting randomised trials that use an adaptive design

Adaptive designs (ADs) allow pre-planned changes to an ongoing trial without compromising the validity of conclusions and it is essential to distinguish pre-planned from unplanned changes that may also occur. The reporting of ADs in randomised trials is inconsistent and needs improving. Incompletely reported AD randomised trials are difficult to reproduce and are hard to interpret and synthesise. This consequently hampers their ability to inform practice as well as future research and contributes to research waste. Better transparency and adequate reporting will enable the potential benefits of ADs to be realised.This extension to the Consolidated Standards Of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) 2010 statement was developed to enhance the reporting of randomised AD clinical trials. We developed an Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) guideline through a two-stage Delphi process with input from multidisciplinary key stakeholders in clinical trials research in the public and private sectors from 21 countries, followed by a consensus meeting. Members of the CONSORT Group were involved during the development process.The paper presents the ACE checklists for AD randomised trial reports and abstracts, as well as an explanation with examples to aid the application of the guideline. The ACE checklist comprises seven new items, nine modified items, six unchanged items for which additional explanatory text clarifies further considerations for ADs, and 20 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text. The ACE abstract checklist has one new item, one modified item, one unchanged item with additional explanatory text for ADs, and 15 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text.The intention is to enhance transparency and improve reporting of AD randomised trials to improve the interpretability of their results and reproducibility of their methods, results and inference. We also hope indirectly to facilitate the much-needed knowledge transfer of innovative trial designs to maximise their potential benefits.

Generating comparative evidence on new drugs and devices after approval

Certain limitations of evidence available on drugs and devices at the time of market approval often persist in the post-marketing period. Often, post-marketing research landscape is fragmented. When regulatory agencies require pharmaceutical and device manufacturers to conduct studies in the post-marketing period, these studies might remain incomplete many years after approval. Even when completed, many post-marketing studies lack meaningful active comparators, have observational designs, and might not collect patient-relevant outcomes. Regulators, in collaboration with the industry and patients, ought to ensure that the key questions unanswered at the time of drug and device approval are resolved in a timely fashion during the post-marketing phase. We propose a set of seven key guiding principles that we believe will provide the necessary incentives for pharmaceutical and device manufacturers to generate comparative data in the post-marketing period. First, regulators (for drugs and devices), notified bodies (for devices in Europe), health technology assessment organisations, and payers should develop customised evidence generation plans, ensuring that future post-approval studies address any limitations of the data available at the time of market entry impacting the benefit-risk profiles of drugs and devices. Second, post-marketing studies should be designed hierarchically: priority should be given to efforts aimed at evaluating a product's net clinical benefit in randomised trials compared with current known effective therapy, whenever possible, to address common decisional dilemmas. Third, post-marketing studies should incorporate active comparators as appropriate. Fourth, use of non-randomised studies for the evaluation of clinical benefit in the post-marketing period should be limited to instances when the magnitude of effect is deemed to be large or when it is possible to reasonably infer the comparative benefits or risks in settings, in which doing a randomised trial is not feasible. Fifth, efficiency of randomised trials should be improved by streamlining patient recruitment and data collection through innovative design elements. Sixth, governments should directly support and facilitate the production of comparative post-marketing data by investing in the development of collaborative research networks and data systems that reduce the complexity, cost, and waste of rigorous post-marketing research efforts. Last, financial incentives and penalties should be developed or more actively reinforced.

Biomarker-guided trials: Challenges in practice

Biomarker-guided trials have drawn considerable attention as they promise to lead to improvements in the benefit-risk ratio of treatments and enhanced opportunities for drug development. A variety of such designs have been proposed in the literature, many of which have been adopted in practice. Implementing such trial designs in practice can be challenging, and identifying those challenges was the main objective of a workshop organised by the MRC Hubs for Trials Methodology Research Network's Stratified Medicine Working Group in March 2017. Participants reflected on completed and ongoing biomarker-guided trials to identify the practical challenges encountered. Here, the key challenges identified during the workshop including those related to funding, ethical and regulatory issues, recruitment, monitoring of samples and laboratories, biomarker assessment, and data sharing and resources, are discussed. Despite the complexities often associated with biomarker-guided trials, the workshop concluded that they can play an important role in advancing the field of personalised medicine. Therefore, it is important that the practical challenges surrounding their implementation are acknowledged and addressed.

Don’t abandon RCTs in IVF. We don’t even understand them

The conclusion of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority that ‘add-on’ therapies in IVF are not supported by high-quality evidence has prompted new questions regarding the role of the randomized controlled trial (RCT) in evaluating infertility treatments. Critics argue that trials are cumbersome tools that provide irrelevant answers. Instead, they argue that greater emphasis should be placed on large observational databases, which can be analysed using powerful algorithms to determine which treatments work and for whom. Although the validity of these arguments rests upon the sciences of statistics and epidemiology, the discussion to date has largely been conducted without reference to these fields. We aim to remedy this omission, by evaluating the arguments against RCTs in IVF from a primarily methodological perspective. We suggest that, while criticism of the status quo is warranted, a retreat from RCTs is more likely to make things worse for patients and clinicians.

Adaptive platform trials: definition, design, conduct and reporting considerations

Researchers, clinicians, policymakers and patients are increasingly interested in questions about therapeutic interventions that are difficult or costly to answer with traditional, free-standing, parallel-group randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Examples include scenarios in which there is a desire to compare multiple interventions, to generate separate effect estimates across subgroups of patients with distinct but related conditions or clinical features, or to minimize downtime between trials. In response, researchers have proposed new RCT designs such as adaptive platform trials (APTs), which are able to study multiple interventions in a disease or condition in a perpetual manner, with interventions entering and leaving the platform on the basis of a predefined decision algorithm. APTs offer innovations that could reshape clinical trials, and several APTs are now funded in various disease areas. With the aim of facilitating the use of APTs, here we review common features and issues that arise with such trials, and offer recommendations to promote best practices in their design, conduct, oversight and reporting.

Effects of biomarker diagnostic accuracy on biomarker-guided phase 2 trials

Recent advancements in genomics have attracted attention towards biomarker-guided trials. These trials aim to identify therapies that target diseases based on their genetic profile, and are especially common in cancer research. Careful incorporation of biomarkers in phase II studies is critical to the selection of candidates for further phase III investigation. This short communication focuses on problems of biomarker test accuracy in biomarker-guided trials. We assessed how diagnostic accuracy of biomarker tests affects type I error rate, statistical power, and sample size requirements of single-arm biomarker-guided trials. In particular, we report how false positive rates (FPRs) of biomarker tests reduce statistical power and type I error for Simon's two-stage design, and the degree of sample size correction required to achieve pre-specified power and type I error with varying FPRs. This was done using a case study based on a previous biomarker-guided single-arm trial that was designed with an assumed tumor response rate of 10% under the null hypothesis and 40% for the alternative hypothesis for the mutant group for 5% type I error and 90% power. With varying FPRs of biomarker tests, we considered two scenarios in which the response rate for the wild-type group was assumed to be lower than the response rate for the mutant group at 5% and 10%. We also developed a simple open-source online trial planner for future investigators to use for their biomarker-guided phase II trials (https://mtek.shinyapps.io/Biomarker_Trial_Planner/).

Adaptive Signature Design- review of the biomarker guided adaptive phase -III controlled design

Genomics having a profound impact on oncology drug development necessitates the use of genomic signatures for therapeutic strategy and emerging medicine proposals. Since its advent in the arena of clinical trials biomarker-related predictive methods for the identification and selection of patient subgroups, with optimal treatment response, are widely used. Genetic signatures which are accountable for the differential response to treatments are experimentally recognizable and analytically validated in phase II stage of clinical trials. The availability of robust and validated biomarkers in phase III is limited. Hence, the development of a clinical trial design without the availability of biomarker identity for treatment-sensitive patients becomes indispensable. Adaptive Signature Design (ASD) is a design procedure of developing and validating a predictive classifier (diagnostic testing strategy) when the signature of subjects responding differentially to treatment is remote in the context of the study. This review provides a detailed methodology and statistical background of this pioneering design developed by Freidlin and Simon (2005). In addition, it concentrates on the advances in ASD regarding statistical issues such as predictive assay identification, classification techniques, statistical methods, subgroup search, choice of differentially expressed genes, and multiplicity correction. The statistical methodology behind the design is explained with the intent of building the ground steps for future research approachable, especially for beginning researchers. Most of the existing research articles give a microcosmic view of the design and lack in describing the details behind the methodology. This study covers those details and marks the novelty of our research.

Evidence to Support Inclusion of Pharmacogenetic Biomarkers in Randomised Controlled Trials

Pharmacogenetics and biomarkers are becoming normalised as important technologies to improve drug efficacy rates, reduce the incidence of adverse drug reactions, and make informed choices for targeted therapies. However, their wider clinical implementation has been limited by a lack of robust evidence. Suitable evidence is required before a biomarker's clinical use, and also before its use in a clinical trial. We have undertaken a review of five pharmacogenetic biomarker-guided randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and evaluated the evidence used by these trials to justify biomarker inclusion. We assessed and quantified the evidence cited in published rationale papers, or where these were not available, obtained protocols from trial authors. Very different levels of evidence were provided by the trials. We used these observations to write recommendations for future justifications of biomarker use in RCTs and encourage regulatory authorities to write clear guidelines.

Key enablers and barriers to implementing adaptive pathways in the European setting

In 2016, the European Medicines Agency published the conclusions of its pilot on adaptive pathways, with products in early stages of development still building up to their marketing authorisation. Adaptive pathways rests on three principles: iterative development; gathering evidence through real-life use to supplement clinical trial data; and early engagement of patients, payers and health technology assessment bodies in discussions on a medicine's development. While the pilot has now finished, the practical system-wide implications of employing the adaptive pathways approach are not known and further consideration of these three principles is required. In this paper we used the three principles that underpin adaptive pathways to discuss main scientific and European policy developments likely to determine progress on further implementing adaptive pathways in the European setting.

Design of experiments for a confirmatory trial of precision medicine

Precision medicine, aka stratified/personalized medicine, is becoming more pronounced in the medical field due to advancement in computational ability to learn about patient genomic backgrounds. A biomaker, i.e. a type of biological process indicator, is often used in precision medicine to classify patient population into several subgroups. The aim of precision medicine is to tailor treatment regimes for different patient subgroups who suffer from the same disease. A multi-arm design could be conducted to explore the effect of treatment regimes on different biomarker subgroups. However, if treatments work only on certain subgroups, which is often the case, enrolling all patient subgroups in a confirmatory trial would increase the burden of a study. Having observed a phase II trial, we propose a design framework for finding an optimal design that could be implemented in a phase III study or a confirmatory trial. We consider two elements in our approach: Bayesian data analysis of observed data, and design of experiments. The first tool selects subgroups and treatments to be enrolled in the future trial whereas the second tool provides an optimal treatment randomization scheme for each selected/enrolled subgroups. Considering two independent treatments and two independent biomarkers, we illustrate our approach using simulation studies. We demonstrate efficiency gain, i.e. high probability of recommending truly effective treatments in the right subgroup, of the optimal design found by our framework over a randomized controlled trial and a biomarker–treatment linked trial.

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A classical randomized controlled trial fails to identify subgroup treatment effect.

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Standard enriched designs may miss out potential patient subgroups.

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A standard multi-arm design could be inefficient for a trial of precision medicine.

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A data-driven design framework could provide efficient designs for future trials.