Recent Transmission of Tuberculosis - United States, 2011-2014

Policy Impediments to Tuberculosis Elimination: Consequences of an Absent Medicare National Coverage Determination for Tuberculosis Prevention

Despite being preventable, tuberculosis (TB) continues to affect thousands of individuals in the US with an increasing incidence every year since the COVID-19 pandemic. Critical to TB elimination efforts is the scale-up of screening and treatment for the estimated 13 million Americans with TB infection. For the Medicare population, the implementation of TB preventive services is hampered by the lack of clear coverage of TB infection screening. Despite a consistent US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation since 1996, TB infection screening does not have a Medicare national coverage determination, which would ensure consistent coverage across the US. All other USPSTF recommended preventive services for Medicare recipients have a national coverage determination, a broadly applicable clinical quality measure or are medications generally covered through Medicare Part D. The lack of a national coverage determination for TB infection screening is crucially a health equity issue with TB disproportionally affecting non-US-born and minoritized US-born persons. To address this important barrier to TB prevention, a request to Medicare for a national coverage determination for TB screening was submitted in early 2024.

Model-Based Analysis of Impact, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations, United States

Outbreak investigation is an essential component of tuberculosis (TB) control in the United States, but its epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness have not been quantified. We modeled outbreak investigation activities in the United States during 2023-2032 and estimated corresponding epidemiologic impact, economic costs (in 2022 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the healthcare system perspective (cost per additional quality-adjusted life-year gained). We projected that outbreak investigations would result in 1,030,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 376,000-1,740,000) contacts investigated, leading to 4,130 (95% UI 1,420-7,640) TB diagnoses and 104,000 (95% UI 37,600-181,000) latent TB infection diagnoses, at a total cost of US $219 million (95% UI $80-$387 million). We estimated that 5,560 (95% UI 1,720-11,400) TB cases would be averted through early detection and treatment, and the incremental cost-effectiveness of outbreak investigations, compared with no outbreak investigations, was $27,800 per quality-adjusted life-year gained (95% UI $4,580-$68,700).

Tuberculosis infection prevalence and treatment completion among refugees in the United States

BACKGROUND

Identifying and treating tuberculosis infection (TBI) among refugees at elevated risk for developing TB disease is crucial for TB prevention and elimination in the United States (U.S.). However, current evidence is limited by small sample sizes, inclusion of refugees from only a single country, and/or reliance solely on the tuberculin skin test (TST).

METHODS

Refugees in a large cohort study from 10 U.S. sites underwent evaluation for TBI using three available tests: the TST and two interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs). This study calculated TBI prevalence and assessed tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) completion among refugees, defining TBI prevalence as positive results on at least two tests.

RESULTS

Among 8960 refugees enrolled July 2012 through May 2017, TBI prevalence was 23.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.4%-24.1%). Completion of TPT was 81.2% (95% CI: 79.6%-82.7%). Shorter treatment regimens of 3 months were associated with higher treatment completion compared to regimens of 6 months or longer.

CONCLUSION

The high TBI prevalence among refugees is a concern, but their high TPT acceptance and completion rates offer an opportunity. IGRA-based tests are preferred in this population; however, limited resources underscore the need for more precise screening approaches to better identify high-risk individuals who truly require TPT.

Cost-effectiveness of screening with transcriptional signatures for incipient TB among U.S. migrants

Introduction

Host-response-based transcriptional signatures (HrTS) have been developed to identify "incipient tuberculosis (TB)". No study has reported the cost-effectiveness of HrTS for post-arrival migrant screening programs in low-incidence countries.

Objectives

To assess the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of HrTS for post-arrival TB infection screening among new migrants in the United States.

Methods

We used a discrete-event simulation model to compare four strategies: (1) no screening for TB infection or incipient TB; (2) 'IGRA-only', screen all with interferon gamma release assay (IGRA), provide TB preventive treatment for IGRA-positives; (3) 'IGRA-HrTS', screen all with IGRA followed by HrTS for IGRA-positives, provide incipient TB treatment for individuals testing positive with both tests; and (4) 'HrTS-only', screen all with HrTS, provide incipient TB treatment for HrTS-positives. We assessed outcomes over the lifetime of migrants entering the U.S. in 2019, assuming HrTS met the WHO Target Product Profile (TPP) optimal criteria. We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the robustness of results.

Results

The IGRA-only strategy dominated the HrTS-based strategies under both healthcare sector and societal perspectives, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $78,943 and $89,431 per quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, respectively. This conclusion was robust to varying costs ($15-300) and characteristics of HrTS, and the willingness-to-pay threshold ($30,000-150,000/ QALY gained), but sensitive to the rate of decline in TB progression risk after U.S. entry.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that HrTS meeting the WHO TPP is unlikely to be a cost-effective component of post-arrival screening for migrants entering the U.S.

Infectious Diseases Among People Experiencing Homelessness: A Systematic Review of the Literature in the United States and Canada, 2003-2022

Homelessness increases the risk of acquiring an infectious disease. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to identify quantitative data related to infectious diseases and homelessness. We searched Google Scholar, PubMed, and SCOPUS for quantitative literature published from January 2003 through December 2022 in English from the United States and Canada. We excluded literature on vaccine-preventable diseases and HIV because these diseases were recently reviewed. Of the 250 articles that met inclusion criteria, more than half were on hepatitis C virus or Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Other articles were on COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus, Staphylococcus aureus, group A Streptococcus, mpox (formerly monkeypox), 5 sexually transmitted infections, and gastrointestinal or vectorborne pathogens. Most studies showed higher prevalence, incidence, or measures of risk for infectious diseases among people experiencing homelessness as compared with people who are housed or the general population. Although having increased published data that quantify the infectious disease risks of homelessness is encouraging, many pathogens that are known to affect people globally who are not housed have not been evaluated in the United States or Canada. Future studies should focus on additional pathogens and factors leading to a disproportionately high incidence and prevalence of infectious diseases among people experiencing homelessness.

Size-selective sampler combined with an immunochromatographic assay for the rapid detection of airborne Legionella pneumophila

Airborne biological aerosols (also called bioaerosols) are found in various environmental and occupational settings. Among these, pathogenic bioaerosols can cause diseases such as legionellosis, influenza, measles, and tuberculosis. To prevent or minimize people's exposure to these pathogenic bioaerosols in the field, a rapid detection method is required. In this study, a size-selective bioaerosol (SSB) sampler was combined with the immunochromatographic assay (ICA). The SSB sampler can collect bioaerosols on the sampling swab and the lateral flow test kit used in ICA can rapidly detect the pathogens in bioaerosols collected on the swab. Before testing the combined method, the lower limit of detection (LOD) of the lateral flow test kit was determined. Legionella pneumophila (L. pneumophila) was used as a target pathogen. The results show that at least 1.3 × 103L. pneumophila cells are required to be detected by the lateral flow test kit. To test the developed method, L. pneumophila suspension was aerosolized in the sampling chamber and collected using two SSB samplers with different sampling times (10 and 20 min). The developed method could detect aerosolized L. pneumophila and also estimate the concentrations from the lower LOD, sampling time, and formation of a positive line on a test strip. When positive results were obtained from sampling for 10 min and 20 min, concentrations of respirable L. pneumophila were estimated ≥5.2 × 104 CFUresp/m3 and ≥2.6 × 104 CFUresp/m3, respectively. The conventional sampler Andersen impactor with colony counting was also used for comparison. In all cases, the estimated concentrations obtained by the developed method were higher than those obtained by the conventional method. These findings confirm that the developed method can overcome the limitations of conventional methods and eventually benefit environmental and occupational health by providing a better method for risk assessment.

Latent Tuberculosis Infection Testing Practices in a Large US Integrated Healthcare System

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is a public health threat, with >80% of active TB in the United States occurring due to reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI). We may be underscreening those with high risk for LTBI and overtesting those at lower risk. A better understanding of gaps in current LTBI testing practices in relation to LTBI test positivity is needed.

METHODS

This study, conducted between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2019 at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, included individuals aged ≥18 years without a history of active TB. We examined factors associated with LTBI testing and LTBI positivity.

RESULTS

Among 3 816 884 adults (52% female, 37% White, 37% Hispanic, mean age 43.5 years [standard deviation, 16.1]), 706 367 (19%) were tested for LTBI, among whom 60 393 (9%) had ≥1 positive result. Among 1 211 971 individuals who met ≥1 screening criteria for LTBI, 210 025 (17%) were tested for LTBI. Factors associated with higher adjusted odds of testing positive included male sex (1.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-1.35), Asian/Pacific Islander (2.78, 2.68-2.88), current smoking (1.24, 1.20-1.28), diabetes (1.13, 1.09-1.16), hepatitis B (1.45, 1.34-1.57), hepatitis C (1.54, 1.44-1.66), and birth in a country with an elevated TB rate (3.40, 3.31-3.49). Despite being risk factors for testing positive for LTBI, none of these factors were associated with higher odds of LTBI testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Current LTBI testing practices may be missing individuals at high risk of LTBI. Additional work is needed to refine and implement screening guidelines that appropriately target testing for those at highest risk for LTBI.

Estimated rates of progression to tuberculosis disease for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the United States

BACKGROUND

In the United States, over 80% of tuberculosis (TB) disease cases are estimated to result from reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) acquired more than 2 years previously ("reactivation TB"). We estimated reactivation TB rates for the US population with LTBI, overall, by age, sex, race-ethnicity, and US-born status, and for selected comorbidities (diabetes, end-stage renal disease, and HIV).

METHODS

We collated nationally representative data for 2011-2012. Reactivation TB incidence was based on TB cases reported to the National TB Surveillance System that were attributed to LTBI reactivation. Person-years at risk of reactivation TB were calculated using interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) positivity from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, published values for interferon-gamma release assay sensitivity and specificity, and population estimates from the American Community Survey.

RESULTS

For persons aged ≥6 years with LTBI, the overall reactivation rate was estimated as 0.072 (95% uncertainty interval: 0.047, 0.12) per 100 person-years. Estimated reactivation rates declined with age. Compared to the overall population, estimated reactivation rates were higher for persons with diabetes (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 1.6 [1.5, 1.7]), end-stage renal disease (aRR = 9.8 [5.4, 19]), and HIV (aRR = 12 [10, 13]).

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, individuals with LTBI faced small, non-negligible risks of reactivation TB. Risks were elevated for individuals with medical comorbidities that weaken immune function.

Cost-effectiveness of expanded latent TB infection testing and treatment: Lynn City, Massachusetts, USA

BACKGROUND: Between October 2016 and March 2019, Lynn Community Health Center in Massachusetts implemented a targeted latent TB infection testing and treatment (TTT) program, increasing testing from a baseline of 1,200 patients tested to an average of 3,531 patients tested, or 9% of the population per year.METHODS: We compared pre-implementation TTT, represented by the first two quarters of implementation data, to TTT, represented by 12 quarters of data. Time, diagnostic, and laboratory resources were estimated using micro-costing. Other cost and testing data were obtained from the electronic health record, pharmaceutical claims, and published reimbursement rates. A Markov cohort model estimated future health outcomes and cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective in 2020 US dollars. Monte Carlo simulation generated 95% uncertainty intervals.RESULTS: The TTT program exhibited extended dominance over baseline pre-intervention testing and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$52,603 (US$22,008â-"US$95,360). When compared to baseline pre-TTT testing, the TTT program averted an estimated additional 7.12 TB cases, 3.49 hospitalizations, and 0.16 deaths per lifetime cohort each year.CONCLUSIONS: TTT was more cost-effective than baseline pre-implementation testing. Lynn Community Health Centerâ-™s experience can help inform other clinics considering expanding latent TB infection testing.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Tuberculosis Incidence, Arkansas, USA, 2010-2021

We conducted an epidemiologic assessment of disease distribution by race/ethnicity to identify subpopulation-specific drivers of tuberculosis (TB). We used detailed racial/ethnic categorizations for the 932 TB cases diagnosed in Arkansas, USA, during 2010-2021. After adjusting for age and sex, racial/ethnic disparities persisted; the Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (NHPI) group had the highest risk for TB (risk ratio 173.6, 95% CI 140.6-214.2) compared with the non-Hispanic White group, followed by Asian, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Black. Notable racial/ethnic disparities existed across all age groups; NHPI persons 0-14 years of age were at a particularly increased risk for TB (risk ratio 888, 95% CI 403-1,962). The risks for sputum smear-positive pulmonary TB and extrapulmonary TB were both significantly higher for racial/ethnic minority groups. Our findings suggest that TB control in Arkansas can benefit from a targeted focus on subpopulations at increased risk for TB.

Trends in tuberculosis clinicians' adoption of short-course regimens for latent tuberculosis infection

Objective

Little is known about regimen choice for latent tuberculosis infection in the United States. Since 2011, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended shorter regimens-12 weeks of isoniazid and rifapentine or 4 months of rifampin-because they have similar efficacy, better tolerability, and higher treatment completion than 6-9 months of isoniazid. The objective of this analysis is to describe frequencies of latent tuberculosis infection regimens prescribed in the United States and assess changes over time.

Methods

Persons at high risk for latent tuberculosis infection or progression to tuberculosis disease were enrolled into an observational cohort study from September 2012-May 2017, tested for tuberculosis infection, and followed for 24 months. This analysis included those with at least one positive test who started treatment.

Results

Frequencies of latent tuberculosis infection regimens and 95% confidence intervals were calculated overall and by important risk groups. Changes in the frequencies of regimens by quarter were assessed using the Mann-Kendall statistic. Of 20,220 participants, 4,068 had at least one positive test and started treatment: 95% non-U.S.-born, 46% female, 12% <15 years old. Most received 4 months of rifampin (49%), 6-9 months of isoniazid (32%), or 12 weeks of isoniazid and rifapentine (13%). Selection of short-course regimens increased from 55% in 2013 to 81% in late 2016 (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Our study identified a trend towards adoption of shorter regimens. Future studies should assess the impact of updated treatment guidelines, which have added 3 months of daily isoniazid and rifampin to recommended regimens.

Using Electronic Health Record Data to Measure the Latent Tuberculosis Infection Care Cascade in Safety-Net Primary Care Clinics

Introduction

Prevention of tuberculosis disease through diagnosis and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection is critical for achieving tuberculosis elimination in the U.S. Diagnosis and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection in safety-net primary care settings that serve patients at risk for tuberculosis may increase uptake of this prevention effort and accelerate progress toward elimination. Optimizing tuberculosis prevention in these settings requires measuring the latent tuberculosis infection care cascade (testing, diagnosis, and treatment) and identifying gaps to develop solutions to overcome barriers. We used electronic health record data to describe the latent tuberculosis infection care cascade and identify gaps among a network of safety-net primary care clinics.

Methods

Electronic health record data for patients seen in the OCHIN Clinical Network, the largest network of safety-net clinics in the U.S., between 2012 and 2019 were extracted. electronic health record data were used to measure the latent tuberculosis infection care cascade: patients who met tuberculosis screening criteria on the basis of current recommendations were tested for tuberculosis infection, diagnosed with latent tuberculosis infection, and prescribed treatment for latent tuberculosis infection. Outcomes were stratified by diagnostic test and treatment regimen.

Results

Among 1.9 million patients in the analytic cohort, 43.5% met tuberculosis screening criteria, but only 21.4% were tested for latent tuberculosis infection; less than half (40.4%) were tested using an interferon-gamma release assay. Among those with a valid result, 10.5% were diagnosed with latent tuberculosis infection, 29.1% of those were prescribed latent tuberculosis infection treatment, and only 33.6% were prescribed a recommended rifamycin-based regimen.

Conclusions

Electronic health record data can be used to measure the latent tuberculosis infection care cascade. A large proportion of patients in this safety-net clinical network are at high risk for tuberculosis infection. Addressing identified gaps in latent tuberculosis infection testing and treatment may have a direct impact on improving tuberculosis prevention in primary care clinics and accelerate progress toward elimination.

Association of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection test results with risk factors for tuberculosis transmission

Background

Close contacts infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis are at high risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease and a priority for preventive treatment. Three tests measure infection: two interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and the tuberculin skin test (TST). The objective of our study was to assess the association of positive test results in contacts with infectiousness of the presumed TB source case.

Methods

Contacts in a cohort study at 10 United States sites received both IGRAs (QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT.TB (T-SPOT)) and TST. We defined test conversion as negative for all tests at baseline and positive for at least one on retest. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) assessed association of positive test results with increased infectiousness of the TB case-defined as acid-fast bacilli (AFB) on sputum microscopy or cavities on chest radiographs- and contact demographics.

Results

Adjusted for contacts' age, nativity, sex, and race, IGRAs (QFT-GIT RR = 6.1, 95% CI 1.7-22.2; T-SPOT RR = 9.4, 95% CI 1.1-79.1), but not TST (RR = 1.7, 95% CI 0.8-3.7), were more likely to convert among contacts exposed to persons with cavitary TB disease.

Conclusions

Because IGRA conversions in contacts are associated with infectiousness of the TB case, their use may improve efficiency of health department contact investigations by focusing efforts on those likely to benefit from preventive treatment in the United States.

Scaling Up Latent Tuberculosis Infection Testing and Treatment for Non-US Born Patients in a Federally Qualified Community Health Center

In the United States (US), tuberculosis elimination strategies include scaling up latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) diagnosis and treatment for persons at risk of progression to tuberculosis disease. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health partnered with Lynn Community Health Center to provide care to patients with LTBI who were born outside the US. The electronic health record was modified to facilitate collection of data elements for public health assessment of the LTBI care cascade. Among health center patients born outside the US, testing for tuberculosis infection increased by over 190%. From October 1, 2016 to March 21, 2019, 8827 patients were screened and 1368 (15.5%) were diagnosed with LTBI. Using the electronic health record, we documented treatment completion for 645/1368 (47.1%) patients. The greatest drop-offs occurred between testing for TB infection and clinical evaluation after a positive test (24.3%) and between the recommendation for LTBI treatment and completion of a treatment course (22.8%). Tuberculosis care delivery was embedded in the primary care medical home, bringing patient-centered care to those at high risk for loss to follow up. The partnership between public health and the community health center promoted quality improvement.

Latent Tuberculosis Screening Cascade for Non-US-Born Persons in a Large Health System

Review of electronic health records revealed substantial drop-off at each stage of the latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) care cascade among non-US-born persons in an academic primary care system. Of 5148 persons eligible for LTBI screening, 1012 (20%) had an LTBI test, and 140 (48%) of 296 LTBI-positive persons received LTBI treatment.

Using a medication event monitoring system to evaluate self-report and pill count for determining treatment completion with self-administered, once-weekly isoniazid and rifapentine

BACKGROUND

Treatment completion is essential for the effectiveness of any latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) regimen. The Tuberculosis Trials Consortium (TBTC) Study 33 (iAdhere) combined self-report and pill counts - standard of care (SOC) with a medication event monitoring system (MEMS) to determine treatment completion for 12-dose once-weekly isoniazid and rifapentine (3HP). Understanding the performance of SOC relative to MEMS can inform providers and suggest when interventions may be applied to optimize LTBI treatment completion.

METHOD

iAdhere randomized participants to directly observed therapy (DOT), SAT, or SAT with text reminders in Hong Kong, South Africa, Spain and the United States (U.S.). This post-hoc secondary analysis evaluated treatment completion in both SAT arms, and compared completion based on SOC with MEMS to completion based on SOC only. Treatment completion proportions were compared. Characteristics associated with discordance between SOC and SOC with MEMS were identified.

RESULTS

Overall 80.8% of 665 participants completed treatment per SOC, compared to 74.7% per SOC with MEMS, a difference of 6.1% (95%CI: 4.2%, 7.8%). Among U.S. participants only, this difference was 3.3% (95% CI: 1.8%, 4.9%). Differences in completion was 3.1% (95% CI: -1.1%, 7.3%) in Spain, and 36.8% (95% CI: 24.3%, 49.4%) in South Africa. There was no difference in Hong Kong.

CONCLUSION

When used for monitoring 3HP, SOC significantly overestimated treatment completion in U.S. and South Africa. However, SOC still provides a reasonable estimate of treatment completion of the 3HP regimen, in U.S., Spain, and Hong Kong.

The Latent Tuberculosis Infection Cascade of Care During The COVID-19 Pandemic Response in a Mid-Sized US City

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic response may unintentionally disrupt multiple public health services, including tuberculosis control programs. We aimed to assess differences in the cascade of care for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in a Midwest U.S. city during the COVID-19 pandemic response.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who presented for LTBI evaluation at the Hamilton County Public Health Tuberculosis Clinic in Ohio between 2019 and 2020. The pre-COVID-19 response period was defined as 01/2019 to 02/2020, and the COVID-19 pandemic response period (first wave) was defined as 04/2020 to 12/2020. We reviewed electronic medical records to extract sociodemographic information, medical history, follow-up and treatment data to define steps within the LTBI cascade of care. Logistic regressions were used to assess factors associated with LTBI treatment acceptance and completion, adjusted by potential confounders and COVID-19 period.

Results

Data from 312 patients were included. There was a significant decrease in the number of monthly LTBI referrals (median, 18 vs. 8, p = 0.02) and LTBI evaluations (median, 17.5 vs. 7, p < 0.01) during the first wave of COVID-19. The proportion for whom immigration was listed as the indication for LTBI testing also declined (30% vs. 9%; p < 0.01) during COVID-19. More LTBI diagnoses were based on interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA; 30% vs. 49%; p < 0.01) during the COVID-19 response period. The proportion of people in the clinic for whom treatment for LTBI was recommended was similar before and during COVID-19 (76% vs. 81%, p = 0.41), as was LTBI treatment acceptance rates (56% vs. 64%, p = 0.28), and completion rates (65% vs. 63%, p = 0.85). In multivariate analysis, LTBI treatment acceptance was associated with Hispanic ethnicity, younger age, male sex, IGRA being used for diagnosis, and non-healthcare occupation, independent of COVID-19 period. LTBI treatment completion was associated with taking a rifamycin-containing regimen, independent of COVID-19 period.

Conclusion

We observed a significant decline in the number of monthly LTBI referrals and evaluations during the first wave of COVID-19, revealing an unintended negative impact of the COVID-19 response in our region. However, LTBI treatment acceptance and completion rates were not affected during COVID-19.

Evaluation of the Latent Tuberculosis Care Cascade Among Public Health Clinics in the United States

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) elimination within the United States will require scaling up TB preventive services. Many public health departments offer care for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), although gaps in the LTBI care cascade are not well quantified. An understanding of these gaps will be required to design targeted public health interventions.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study through the Tuberculosis Epidemiologic Studies Consortium (TBESC) within 15 local health department (LHD) TB clinics across the United States. Data were abstracted on individuals receiving LTBI care during 2016-2017 through chart review. Our primary objective was to quantify the LTBI care cascade, beginning with LTBI testing and extending through treatment completion.

RESULTS

Among 23 885 participants tested by LHDs, 46% (11 009) were male with a median age of 31 (interquartile range [IQR] 20-46). A median of 35% of participants were US-born at each site (IQR 11-78). Overall, 16 689 (70%) received a tuberculin skin test (TST), 6993 (29%) received a Quantiferon (QFT), and 1934 (8%) received a T-SPOT.TB; 5% (1190) had more than one test. Among those tested, 2877 (12%) had at least one positive test result (3% among US-born, and 23% among non-US-born, P < .01). Of 2515 (11%) of the total participants diagnosed with LTBI, 1073 (42%) initiated therapy, of whom 817 (76%) completed treatment (32% of those with LTBI diagnosis).

CONCLUSIONS

Significant gaps were identified along the LTBI care cascade, with less than half of individuals diagnosed with LTBI initiating therapy. Further research is needed to better characterize the factors impeding LTBI diagnosis, treatment initiation, and treatment completion.

Regional distribution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and resistance to rifampicin and isoniazid as determined by high-resolution melt analysis

Background

Identifying the transmission mode and resistance mechanism of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) is key to prevent disease transmission. However, there is a lack of regional data. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify risk factors associated with the transmission of MTB and regional patterns of resistance to isoniazid (INH) and rifampicin (RFP), as well as the prevalence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB).

Methods

High-resolution melt (HRM) analysis was conducted using sputum, alveolar lavage fluid, and pleural fluid samples collected from 17,515 patients with suspected or confirmed MTB infection in the downtown area and nine counties of Luoyang City from 2019 to 2021.

Results

Of the 17,515 patients, 82.6% resided in rural areas, and 96.0% appeared for an initial screening. The HRM positivity rate was 16.8%, with a higher rate in males than females (18.0% vs. 14.1%, p < 0.001). As expected, a positive sputum smear was correlated with a positive result for HRM analysis. By age, the highest rates of MTB infection occurred in males (22.9%) aged 26–30 years and females (28.1%) aged 21–25. The rates of resistance to RFP and INH and the incidence of MDR were higher in males than females (20.5% vs. 16.1%, p < 0.001, 15.9% vs. 12.0%, p < 0.001 and 12.9% vs. 10.2%, p < 0.001, respectively). The HRM positivity rate was much higher in previously treated patients than those newly diagnosed for MTB infection. Notably, males at the initial screening had significantly higher rates of HRM positive, INH resistance, RFP resistance, and MDR-TB than females (all, p < 0.05), but not those previously treated for MTB infection. The HRM positivity and drug resistance rates were much higher in the urban vs. rural population. By multivariate analyses, previous treatment, age < 51 years, residing in an urban area, and male sex were significantly and positively associated with drug resistance after adjusting for smear results and year of testing.

Conclusion

Males were at higher risks for MTB infection and drug resistance, while a younger age was associated with MTB infection, resistance to INH and RFP, and MDR-TB. Further comprehensive monitoring of resistance patterns is needed to control the spread of MTB infection and manage drug resistance locally.

Model-based Analysis of Tuberculosis Genotype Clusters in the United States Reveals High Degree of Heterogeneity in Transmission and State-level Differences Across California, Florida, New York, and Texas

BACKGROUND

Reductions in tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been instrumental in lowering TB incidence in the United States. Sustaining and augmenting these reductions are key public health priorities.

METHODS

We fit mechanistic transmission models to distributions of genotype clusters of TB cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2012-2016 in the United States and separately in California, Florida, New York, and Texas. We estimated the mean number of secondary cases generated per infectious case (R0) and individual-level heterogeneity in R0 at state and national levels and assessed how different definitions of clustering affected these estimates.

RESULTS

In clusters of genotypically linked TB cases that occurred within a state over a 5-year period (reference scenario), the estimated R0 was 0.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], .28-.31) in the United States. Transmission was highly heterogeneous; 0.24% of simulated cases with individual R0 >10 generated 19% of all recent secondary transmissions. R0 estimate was 0.16 (95% CI, .15-.17) when a cluster was defined as cases occurring within the same county over a 3-year period. Transmission varied across states: estimated R0s were 0.34 (95% CI, .3-.4) in California, 0.28 (95% CI, .24-.36) in Florida, 0.19 (95% CI, .15-.27) in New York, and 0.38 (95% CI, .33-.46) in Texas.

CONCLUSIONS

TB transmission in the United States is characterized by pronounced heterogeneity at the individual and state levels. Improving detection of transmission clusters through incorporation of whole-genome sequencing and identifying the drivers of this heterogeneity will be essential to reducing TB transmission.

Tuberculosis Outbreaks in State Prisons, United States, 2011-2019

Objectives. To understand the frequency, magnitude, geography, and characteristics of tuberculosis outbreaks in US state prisons. Methods. Using data from the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System, we identified all cases of tuberculosis during 2011 to 2019 that were reported as occurring among individuals incarcerated in a state prison at the time of diagnosis. We used whole-genome sequencing to define 3 or more cases within 2 single nucleotide polymorphisms within 3 years as clustered; we classified clusters with 6 or more cases during a 3-year period as tuberculosis outbreaks. Results. During 2011 to 2019, 566 tuberculosis cases occurred in 41 state prison systems (a median of 3 cases per state). A total of 19 tuberculosis genotype clusters comprising 134 cases were identified in 6 state prison systems; these clusters included a subset of 5 outbreaks in 2 states. Two Alabama outbreaks during 2011 to 2017 totaled 20 cases; 3 Texas outbreaks during 2014 to 2019 totaled 51 cases. Conclusions. Only Alabama and Texas reported outbreaks during the 9-year period; only Texas state prisons had ongoing transmission in 2019. Effective interventions are needed to stop tuberculosis outbreaks in Texas state prisons. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(8):1170-1179. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306864).

Mutation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Implications for Using Whole-Genome Sequencing for Investigating Recent Tuberculosis Transmission

Tuberculosis (TB) control programs use whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) for detecting and investigating TB case clusters. Existence of few genomic differences between Mtb isolates might indicate TB cases are the result of recent transmission. However, the variable and sometimes long duration of latent infection, combined with uncertainty in the Mtb mutation rate during latency, can complicate interpretation of WGS results. To estimate the association between infection duration and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) accumulation in the Mtb genome, we first analyzed pairwise SNP differences among TB cases from Los Angeles County, California, with strong epidemiologic links. We found that SNP distance alone was insufficient for concluding that cases are linked through recent transmission. Second, we describe a well-characterized cluster of TB cases in California to illustrate the role of genomic data in conclusions regarding recent transmission. Longer presumed latent periods were inconsistently associated with larger SNP differences. Our analyses suggest that WGS alone cannot be used to definitively determine that a case is attributable to recent transmission. Methods for integrating clinical, epidemiologic, and genomic data can guide conclusions regarding the likelihood of recent transmission, providing local public health practitioners with better tools for monitoring and investigating TB transmission.

Minnesota refugees diagnosed with tuberculosis disease, January 1993–August 2019

Background

Refugees are screened for TB overseas using Technical Instructions (TIs) issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and after arrival during their refugee health assessment (RHA). We examined RHA results and TB outcomes of refugees to Minnesota.

Methods

Demographic and RHA results for 70,290 refugee arrivals to Minnesota from January 1993 to August 2019 were matched to 3595 non-U.S. born individuals diagnosed with TB disease during that time.

Results

Seven hundred fifty-nine (1.1%) were diagnosed with TB disease. Fifty-four percent were diagnosed within 2 years of U.S. arrival. Refugees screened using TIs implemented in 1991 were twice as likely to be diagnosed with TB disease within 1 year of arrival, compared to those evaluated using improved TIs implemented in 2007.

Conclusion

Few refugees were diagnosed with TB disease during the period examined. Enhancements to overseas protocols significantly reduced the proportion of refugees diagnosed within 1 year of arrival.

A Cluster-based Method to Quantify Individual Heterogeneity in Tuberculosis Transmission

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence suggests transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) may be characterized by extreme individual heterogeneity in secondary cases (i.e., few cases account for the majority of transmission). Such heterogeneity implies outbreaks are rarer but more extensive and has profound implications in infectious disease control. However, discrete person-to-person transmission events in tuberculosis (TB) are often unobserved, precluding our ability to directly quantify individual heterogeneity in TB epidemiology.

METHODS

We used a modified negative binomial branching process model to quantify the extent of individual heterogeneity using only observed transmission cluster size distribution data (i.e., the simple sum of all cases in a transmission chain) without knowledge of individual-level transmission events. The negative binomial parameter k quantifies the extent of individual heterogeneity (generally, indicates extensive heterogeneity, and as transmission becomes more homogenous). We validated the robustness of the inference procedure considering common limitations affecting cluster size data. Finally, we demonstrate the epidemiologic utility of this method by applying it to aggregate US molecular surveillance data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

RESULTS

The cluster-based method reliably inferred k using TB transmission cluster data despite a high degree of bias introduced into the model. We found that the TB transmission in the United States was characterized by a high propensity for extensive outbreaks (; 95% confidence interval = 0.09, 0.10).

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed method can accurately quantify critical parameters that govern TB transmission using simple, more easily obtainable cluster data to improve our understanding of TB epidemiology.

Overseas Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis Infection in US–Bound Immigrants

Seventy percent of tuberculosis (TB) cases in the United States occur among non–US-born persons; cases usually result from reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) likely acquired before the person’s US arrival. We conducted a prospective study among US immigrant visa applicants undergoing the required overseas medical examination in Vietnam. Consenting applicants >15 years of age were offered an interferon-γ release assay (IGRA); those 12–14 years of age received an IGRA as part of the required examination. Eligible participants were offered LTBI treatment with 12 doses of weekly isoniazid and rifapentine. Of 5,311 immigrant visa applicants recruited, 2,438 (46%) consented to participate; 2,276 had an IGRA processed, and 484 (21%) tested positive. Among 452 participants eligible for treatment, 304 (67%) initiated treatment, and 268 (88%) completed treatment. We demonstrated that using the overseas medical examination to provide voluntary LTBI testing and treatment should be considered to advance US TB elimination efforts.

Transmission Of Tuberculosis Among illicit drug use Linkages (TOTAL): A cross-sectional observational study protocol using respondent driven sampling

People who use illicit drugs (PWUDs) have been identified as a key at-risk group for tuberculosis (TB). Examination of illicit drug use networks has potential to assess the risk of TB exposure and disease progression. Research also is needed to assess mechanisms for accelerated TB transmission in this population. This study aims to 1) assess the rate of TB exposure, risk of disease progression, and disease burden among PWUD; 2) estimate the proportion of active TB cases resulting from recent transmission within this network; and 3) evaluate whether PWUD with TB disease have physiologic characteristics associated with more efficient TB transmission. Our cross-sectional, observational study aims to assess TB transmission through illicit drug use networks, focusing on methamphetamine and Mandrax (methaqualone) use, in a high TB burden setting and identify mechanisms underlying accelerated transmission. We will recruit and enroll 750 PWUD (living with and without HIV) through respondent driven sampling in Worcester, South Africa. Drug use will be measured through self-report and biological measures, with sputum specimens collected to identify TB disease by Xpert Ultra (Cepheid) and mycobacterial culture. We will co-enroll those with microbiologic evidence of TB disease in Aim 2 for molecular and social network study. Whole genome sequencing of Mycobacteria tuberculosis (Mtb) specimens and social contact surveys will be done for those diagnosed with TB. For Aim 3, aerosolized Mtb will be compared in individuals with newly diagnosed TB who do and do not smoke illicit drug. Knowledge from this study will provide the basis for a strategy to interrupt TB transmission in PWUD and provide insight into how this fuels overall community transmission. Results have potential for informing interventions to reduce TB spread applicable to high TB and HIV burden settings. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov Registration Number: NCT041515602. Date of Registration: 5 November 2019.

Disease Surveillance Among U.S.-Bound Immigrants and Refugees — Electronic Disease Notification System, United States, 2014–2019

Problem/Condition

Period Covered

Description of System

Results

Interpretation

Public Health Action

What Can Genetic Relatedness Tell Us About Risk Factors for Tuberculosis Transmission?

BACKGROUND

To stop tuberculosis (TB), the leading infectious cause of death globally, we need to better understand transmission risk factors. Although many studies have identified associations between individual-level covariates and pathogen genetic relatedness, few have identified characteristics of transmission pairs or explored how closely covariates associated with genetic relatedness mirror those associated with transmission.

METHODS

We simulated a TB-like outbreak with pathogen genetic data and estimated odds ratios (ORs) to correlate each covariate and genetic relatedness. We used a naive Bayes approach to modify the genetic links and nonlinks to resemble the true links and nonlinks more closely and estimated modified ORs with this approach. We compared these two sets of ORs with the true ORs for transmission. Finally, we applied this method to TB data in Hamburg, Germany, and Massachusetts, USA, to find pair-level covariates associated with transmission.

RESULTS

Using simulations, we found that associations between covariates and genetic relatedness had the same relative magnitudes and directions as the true associations with transmission, but biased absolute magnitudes. Modifying the genetic links and nonlinks reduced the bias and increased the confidence interval widths, more accurately capturing error. In Hamburg and Massachusetts, pairs were more likely to be probable transmission links if they lived in closer proximity, had a shorter time between observations, or had shared ethnicity, social risk factors, drug resistance, or genotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a method to improve the use of genetic relatedness as a proxy for transmission, and aid in understanding TB transmission dynamics in low-burden settings.

The Health and Economic Benefits of Tests That Predict Future Progression to Tuberculosis Disease

BACKGROUND

Effective targeting of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) treatment requires identifying those most likely to progress to tuberculosis (TB). We estimated the potential health and economic benefits of diagnostics with improved discrimination for LTBI that will progress to TB.

METHODS

A base case scenario represented current LTBI testing and treatment services in the United States in 2020, with diagnosis via. interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). Alternative scenarios represented tests with higher positive predictive value (PPV) for future TB but similar price to IGRA, and scenarios that additionally assumed higher treatment initiation and completion. We predicted outcomes using multiple transmission-dynamic models calibrated to different geographic areas and estimated costs from a societal perspective.

RESULTS

In 2020, 2.1% (range across model results: 1.1%-3.4%) of individuals with LTBI were predicted to develop TB in their remaining lifetime. For IGRA, we estimated the PPV for future TB as 1.3% (0.6%-1.8%). Relative to IGRA, we estimated a test with 10% PPV would reduce treatment volume by 87% (82%-94%), reduce incremental costs by 30% (15%-52%), and increase quality-adjusted life years by 3% (2%-6%). Cost reductions and health improvements were substantially larger for scenarios in which higher PPV for future TB was associated with greater initiation and completion of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimated that tests with better predictive performance would substantially reduce the number of individuals treated to prevent TB but would have a modest impact on incremental costs and health impact of TB prevention services, unless accompanied by greater treatment acceptance and completion.

Investigation of Contacts for Latent Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Infection: Application Software Development

Introduction:

Tuberculosis is a pathology that continues to be worthy of special attention from health professionals and society due to its high prevalence, proving to be a crucial public health problem.

Objectives:

To describe the development of an application for family health strategy professionals’ investigation of tuberculosis contacts for Latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection.

Methods:

This study is applied research on an application software developed according to three of the five phases described by Falkembach for developing digital educational materials, which include analysis and planning, modeling, and implementation.

Results:

The application is dynamic; that is, it guides health professionals through sequenced screens according to professionals’ self-informed answers. This functionality helps them deciding whether to proceed to the treatment of the patient with Latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection or returning to the initial stage of a tuberculosis contact.

The screens of the application follow the flowchart presented in the Ministry of Health’s Manual of recommendations for tuberculosis control in Brazil of 2018.

Conclusion:

The application developed to guide Family Health Strategy professionals regarding Latent Infection by Mycobacterium Tuberculosis can prevent human errors and increase the care quality when assessing tuberculosis contacts.

Ramadan and Culturally Competent Care: Strengthening Tuberculosis Protections for Recently Resettled Muslim Refugees

To improve latent tuberculosis infection treatment completion rates, Tarrant County Public Health began providing after-dusk home delivery of a 12-dose latent tuberculosis infection regimen of weekly rifapentine plus isoniazid administered via directly observed preventive therapy during Ramadan, a month of prayer and daytime fasting observed by Muslims. In unadjusted difference-in-difference logistic regression analyses (n = 148), Muslim patients had lower treatment completion rates than non-Muslim patients during Ramadan prior to program implementation (68.8% vs 95.4%), whereas rates were comparable postimplementation (95.7% vs 96.4%; difference-in-difference P = .011). Similar results were found after adjusting for age and gender (pre: 71.4% vs 94.8%; post: 95.5% vs 96.3%; P = .032). These findings provide evidence of the need for and effectiveness of programmatic innovations tailored to the varying cultural norms of the widely diverse populations served by public health authorities and suggest that culturally competent clinical care may advance population health goals.

Tuberculosis Genotype Clusters and Transmission in the U.S., 2009-2018

INTRODUCTION

In the U.S., universal genotyping of culture-confirmed tuberculosis cases facilitates cluster detection. Early recognition of the small clusters more likely to become outbreaks can help prioritize public health resources for immediate interventions.

METHODS

This study used national surveillance data reported during 2009-2018 to describe incident clusters (≥3 tuberculosis cases with matching genotypes not previously reported in the same county); data were analyzed during 2020. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the patient characteristics associated with clusters doubling in size to ≥6 cases.

RESULTS

During 2009-2018, a total of 1,516 incident clusters (comprising 6,577 cases) occurred in 47 U.S. states; 231 clusters had ≥6 cases. Clusters of ≥6 cases disproportionately included patients who used substances, who had recently experienced homelessness, who were incarcerated, who were U.S. born, or who self-identified as being of American Indian or Alaska Native race or of Black race. A median of 54 months elapsed between the first and the third cases in clusters that remained at 3-5 cases compared with a median of 9.5 months in clusters that grew to ≥6 cases. The longer time between the first and third cases and the presence of ≥1 patient aged ≥65 years among the first 3 cases predicted a lower hazard for accumulating ≥6 cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Clusters accumulating ≥3 cases within a year should be prioritized for intervention. Effective response strategies should include plans for targeted outreach to U.S.-born individuals, incarcerated people, those experiencing homelessness, people using substances, and individuals self-identifying as being of American Indian or Alaska Native race or of Black race.

Trends, mechanisms, and racial/ethnic differences of tuberculosis incidence in the US-born population aged 50 years or older in the United States

Background

Older age is a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB) in low incidence settings. Using data from the US National TB Surveillance System and American Community Survey, we estimated trends and racial/ethnic differences in TB incidence among US-born cohorts aged ≥50 years.

Methods

In total, 42 000 TB cases among US-born persons ≥50 years were reported during 2001–2019. We used generalized additive regression models to decompose the effects of birth cohort and age on TB incidence rates, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. Using genotype-based estimates of recent transmission (available 2011–2019), we implemented additional models to decompose incidence trends by estimated recent versus remote infection.

Results

Estimated incidence rates declined with age, for the overall cohort and most sex and race/ethnicity strata. Average annual percentage declines flattened for older individuals, from 8.80% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.34–9.23) in 51-year-olds to 4.51% (95% CI 3.87–5.14) in 90-year-olds. Controlling for age, incidence rates were lower for more recent birth cohorts, dropping 8.79% (95% CI 6.13–11.26) on average between successive cohort years. Incidence rates were substantially higher for racial/ethnic minorities, and these inequalities persisted across all birth cohorts. Rates from recent infection declined at approximately 10% per year as individuals aged. Rates from remote infection declined more slowly with age, and this annual percentage decline approached zero for the oldest individuals.

Conclusions

TB rates were highest for racial/ethnic minorities and for the earliest birth cohorts and declined with age. For the oldest individuals, annual percentage declines were low, and most cases were attributed to remote infection.

Association between Birth Region and Time to Tuberculosis Diagnosis among Non-US-Born Persons in the United States

Approximately 90% of tuberculosis (TB) cases among non–US-born persons in the United States are attributable to progression of latent TB infection to TB disease. Using survival analysis, we investigated whether birthplace is associated with time to disease progression among non–US-born persons in whom TB disease developed. We derived a Cox regression model comparing differences in time to TB diagnosis after US entry among 19 birth regions, adjusting for sex, birth year, and age at entry. After adjusting for age at entry and birth year, the median time to TB diagnosis was lowest among persons from Middle Africa, 128 months (95% CI 116–146 months) for male persons and 121 months (95% CI 108–136 months) for female persons. We found time to TB diagnosis among non–US-born persons varied by birth region, which represents a prognostic indicator for progression of latent TB infection to TB disease.

Evaluation of point-of-care algorithms to detect diabetes during screening for latent TB infection

BACKGROUND: Individuals with both diabetes mellitus (DM) and TB infection are at higher risk of progressing to TB disease.OBJECTIVE: To determine DM prevalence in populations at high risk for latent TB infection (LTBI) and to identify the most accurate point-of-care (POC) method for DM screening.METHODS: Adults aged ≥25 years were recruited at health department clinics in Hawaii and Arizona, USA, and screened for LTBI and DM. Screening methods for DM included self-report, random blood glucose (RBG), and POC hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Using HbA1c ≥6.5% or self-reported history as the gold standard for DM, we compared test strategies to determine the most accurate method while keeping test costs low.RESULTS: Of 472 participants, 13% had DM and half were unaware of their diagnosis. Limiting HbA1c testing to ages ≥30 years with a RBG level of 120-180 mg/dL helped identify most participants with DM (sensitivity 85%, specificity 99%) at an average test cost of US$2.56 per person compared to US$9.56 per person using HbA1c for all patients.CONCLUSION: Self-report was insufficient to determine DM status because many participants were previously undiagnosed. Using a combination of POC RBG and HbA1c provided an inexpensive option to assess DM status in persons at high risk for LTBI.

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in the United States, 2011-2016: patient characteristics and risk factors

OBJECTIVE: To determine risk factors for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and describe MDR-TB according to three characteristics: previous TB disease, recent transmission of MDR-TB, and reactivation of latent MDR-TB infection.SETTING and DESIGN: We used 2011-2016 surveillance data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and National Tuberculosis Genotyping Service and used logistic regression models to estimate risk factors associated with MDR-TB.RESULTS: A total of 615/45 209 (1.4%) cases were confirmed as MDR-TB; 111/615 (18%) reported previous TB disease; 41/615 (6.7%) were attributed to recent MDR-TB transmission; and 449/615 (73%) to reactivation. Only 12/41 (29%) patients with TB attributed to recent transmission were known to be contacts of someone with MDR-TB. For non-US-born patients, the adjusted odds ratios of having MDR-TB were 32.6 (95%CI 14.6-72.6) among those who were known to be contacts of someone with MDR-TB and 6.5 (95%CI 5.1-8.3) among those who had had previous TB disease.CONCLUSION: The majority of MDR-TB cases in the United States were associated with previous TB disease or reactivation of latent MDR-TB infection; only a small proportion of MDR-TB cases were associated with recent transmission.

State-level prevalence estimates of latent tuberculosis infection in the United States by medical risk factors, demographic characteristics and nativity

INTRODUCTION

Preventing tuberculosis (TB) disease requires treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI) as well as prevention of person-to-person transmission. We estimated the LTBI prevalence for the entire United States and for each state by medical risk factors, age, and race/ethnicity, both in the total population and stratified by nativity.

METHODS

We created a mathematical model using all incident TB disease cases during 2013-2017 reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System that were classified using genotype-based methods or imputation as not attributed to recent TB transmission. Using the annual average number of TB cases among US-born and non-US-born persons by medical risk factor, age group, and race/ethnicity, we applied population-specific reactivation rates (and corresponding 95% confidence intervals [CI]) to back-calculate the estimated prevalence of untreated LTBI in each population for the United States and for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2015.

RESULTS

We estimated that 2.7% (CI: 2.6%-2.8%) of the U.S. population, or 8.6 (CI: 8.3-8.8) million people, were living with LTBI in 2015. Estimated LTBI prevalence among US-born persons was 1.0% (CI: 1.0%-1.1%) and among non-US-born persons was 13.9% (CI: 13.5%-14.3%). Among US-born persons, the highest LTBI prevalence was in persons aged ≥65 years (2.1%) and in persons of non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity (3.1%). Among non-US-born persons, the highest LTBI prevalence was estimated in persons aged 45-64 years (16.3%) and persons of Asian and other racial/ethnic groups (19.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimations of the prevalence of LTBI by medical risk factors and demographic characteristics for each state could facilitate planning for testing and treatment interventions to eliminate TB in the United States. Our back-calculation method feasibly estimates untreated LTBI prevalence and can be updated using future TB disease case counts at the state or national level.

Estimating and Evaluating Tuberculosis Incidence Rates Among People Experiencing Homelessness, United States, 2007-2016

OBJECTIVES

Persons experiencing homelessness (PEH) are disproportionately affected by tuberculosis (TB). We estimate area-specific rates of TB among PEH and characterize the extent to which available data support recent transmission as an explanation of high TB incidence.

METHODS

We estimated TB incidence among PEH using National Tuberculosis Surveillance System data and population estimates for the US Department of Housing and Urban Development's Continuums of Care areas. For areas with TB incidence higher than the national average among PEH, we estimated recent transmission using genotyping and a plausible source-case method. For cases with ≥1 plausible source case, we assessed with TB program partners whether available whole-genome sequencing and local epidemiologic data were consistent with recent transmission.

RESULTS

During 2011-2016, 3164 TB patients reported experiencing homelessness. National incidence was 36 cases/100,000 PEH. Incidence estimates varied among 21 areas with ≥10,000 PEH (9-150 cases/100,000 PEH); 9 areas had higher than average incidence. Of the 2349 cases with Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotyping results, 874 (37%) had ≥1 plausible source identified. In the 9 areas, 23%-82% of cases had ≥1 plausible source. Of cases with ≥1 plausible source, 63% were consistent and 7% were inconsistent with recent transmission; 29% were inconclusive.

CONCLUSIONS

Disparities in TB incidence for PEH persist; estimates of TB incidence and recent transmission vary by area. With a better understanding of the TB risk among PEH in their jurisdictions and the role of recent transmission as a driver, programs can make more informed decisions about prioritizing TB prevention strategies.

Estimating the relative probability of direct transmission between infectious disease patients

BACKGROUND

Estimating infectious disease parameters such as the serial interval (time between symptom onset in primary and secondary cases) and reproductive number (average number of secondary cases produced by a primary case) are important in understanding infectious disease dynamics. Many estimation methods require linking cases by direct transmission, a difficult task for most diseases.

METHODS

Using a subset of cases with detailed genetic and/or contact investigation data to develop a training set of probable transmission events, we build a model to estimate the relative transmission probability for all case-pairs from demographic, spatial and clinical data. Our method is based on naive Bayes, a machine learning classification algorithm which uses the observed frequencies in the training dataset to estimate the probability that a pair is linked given a set of covariates.

RESULTS

In simulations, we find that the probabilities estimated using genetic distance between cases to define training transmission events are able to distinguish between truly linked and unlinked pairs with high accuracy (area under the receiver operating curve value of 95%). Additionally, only a subset of the cases, 10-50% depending on sample size, need to have detailed genetic data for our method to perform well. We show how these probabilities can be used to estimate the average effective reproductive number and apply our method to a tuberculosis outbreak in Hamburg, Germany.

CONCLUSIONS

Our method is a novel way to infer transmission dynamics in any dataset when only a subset of cases has rich contact investigation and/or genetic data.

US Tuberculosis Rates among Persons Born Outside the United States Compared with Rates in Their Countries of Birth, 2012-20161

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends screening populations at increased risk for tuberculosis (TB), including persons born in countries with high TB rates. This approach assumes that TB risk for expatriates living in the United States is representative of TB risk in their countries of birth. We compared US TB rates by country of birth with corresponding country rates by calculating incidence rate ratios (IRRs) (World Health Organization rate/US rate). The median IRR was 5.4. The median IRR was 0.5 for persons who received a TB diagnosis <1 year after US entry, 4.9 at 1 to <10 years, and 10.0 at >10 years. Our analysis suggests that World Health Organization TB rates are not representative of TB risk among expatriates in the United States and that TB testing prioritization in the United States might better be based on US rates by country of birth and years in the United States.

Determinants of Latent Tuberculosis Treatment Acceptance and Completion in Healthcare Personnel

BACKGROUND

US public health strategy for eliminating tuberculosis (TB) prioritizes treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). Healthcare personnel (HCP) are less willing to accept treatment than other populations. Little is known about factors associated with HCP LTBI therapy acceptance and completion.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective chart review to identify all employees with LTBI at time of hire at a large academic medical center during a 10-year period. Personal demographics, occupational factors, and clinic visit variables were correlated with LTBI treatment acceptance and completion rates using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 470 HCP with LTBI for whom treatment was recommended, 193 (41.1%) accepted treatment, while 137 (29.1%) completed treatment. Treatment adherence was better with 4 months of rifampin than 9 months of isoniazid (95% vs 68%, P < .005). Increased age of the healthcare worker was independently associated with lower rates of treatment acceptance (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.97 [0.94-0.99] per year), as was having an occupation of clinician (0.47 [0.26-0.85]) or researcher (0.34 [0.19-0.64]). Male gender was associated with higher treatment acceptance (1.90 [1.21-2.99]). Treatment completion was associated with being from a low- (9.49 [2.06-43.73]) or medium- (8.51 [3.93-18.44]) TB-burden country.

CONCLUSIONS

Geographic and occupational factors affect acceptance and completion of LTBI therapy. Short-course regimens may improve adherence. Physicians, researchers, and HCP from high-TB-burden countries have lower treatment rates than other HCP. Improving LTBI treatment in HCP will require attending to cultural and occupational differences.

A cross-sectional study of latent tuberculosis infection, insurance coverage, and usual sources of health care among non-US-born persons in the United States

More than 70% of tuberculosis (TB) cases diagnosed in the United States (US) occur in non-US-born persons, and this population has experienced less than half the recent incidence rate declines of US-born persons (1.5% vs 4.2%, respectively). The great majority of TB cases in non-US-born persons are attributable to reactivation of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Strategies to expand LTBI-focused TB prevention may depend on LTBI positive non-US-born persons' access to, and ability to pay for, health care.To examine patterns of health insurance coverage and usual sources of health care among non-US-born persons with LTBI, and to estimate LTBI prevalence by insurance status and usual sources of health care.Self-reported health insurance and usual sources of care for non-US-born persons were analyzed in combination with markers for LTBI using 2011-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data for 1793 sampled persons. A positive result on an interferon gamma release assay (IGRA), a blood test which measures immunological reactivity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, was used as a proxy for LTBI. We calculated demographic category percentages by IGRA status, IGRA percentages by demographic category, and 95% confidence intervals for each percentage.Overall, 15.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 13.5, 18.7] of non-US-born persons were IGRA-positive. Of IGRA-positive non-US-born persons, 63.0% (95% CI = 55.4, 69.9) had insurance and 74.1% (95% CI = 69.2, 78.5) had a usual source of care. IGRA positivity was highest in persons with Medicare (29.1%; 95% CI: 20.9, 38.9).Our results suggest that targeted LTBI testing and treatment within the US private healthcare sector could reach a large majority of non-US-born individuals with LTBI. With non-US-born Medicare beneficiaries' high prevalence of LTBI and the high proportion of LTBI-positive non-US-born persons with private insurance, future TB prevention initiatives focused on these payer types are warranted.

Developing National Genotype-Independent Indicators for Recent Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Transmission Using Pediatric Cases-United States, 2011-2017

INTRODUCTION

Pediatric tuberculosis (TB) cases are sentinel events for Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in communities because children, by definition, must have been infected relatively recently. However, these events are not consistently identified by genotype-dependent surveillance alerting methods because many pediatric TB cases are not culture-positive, a prerequisite for genotyping.

METHODS

We developed 3 potential indicators of ongoing TB transmission based on identifying counties in the United States with relatively high pediatric (aged <15 years) TB incidence: (1) a case proportion indicator: an above-average proportion of pediatric TB cases among all TB cases; (2) a case rate indicator: an above-average pediatric TB case rate; and (3) a statistical model indicator: a statistical model based on a significant increase in pediatric TB cases from the previous 8-quarter moving average.

RESULTS

Of the 249 US counties reporting ≥2 pediatric TB cases during 2009-2017, 240 and 249 counties were identified by the case proportion and case rate indicators, respectively. The statistical model indicator identified 40 counties with a significant increase in the number of pediatric TB cases. We compared results from the 3 indicators with an independently generated list of 91 likely transmission events involving ≥2 pediatric cases (ie, known TB outbreaks or case clusters with reported epidemiologic links). All counties with likely transmission events involving multiple pediatric cases were identified by ≥1 indicator; 23 were identified by all 3 indicators.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

This retrospective analysis demonstrates the feasibility of using routine TB surveillance data to identify counties where ongoing TB transmission might be occurring, even in the absence of available genotyping data.

Risk Factors for Tuberculosis and Effect of Preventive Therapy Among Close Contacts of Persons With Infectious Tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Close contacts of persons with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) have high rates of TB disease.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled TB patients and their close contacts at 9 US/Canadian sites. TB patients and contacts were interviewed to identify index patient, contact, and exposure risk factors for TB. Contacts were evaluated for latent TB infection (LTBI) and TB, and the effectiveness of LTBI treatment for preventing contact TB was examined.

RESULTS

Among 4490 close contacts, multivariable risk factors for TB were age ≤5 years, US/Canadian birth, human immunodeficiency virus infection, skin test induration ≥10 mm, shared bedroom with an index patient, exposure to more than 1 index patient, and index patient weight loss (P < .05 for each). Of 1406 skin test-positive contacts, TB developed in 49 (9.8%) of 446 who did not initiate treatment, 8 (1.8%) of 443 who received partial treatment, and 1 (0.2%) of 517 who completed treatment (1951, 290, and 31 cases/100 000 person-years, respectively; P < .001). TB was diagnosed in 4.2% of US/Canadian-born compared with 2.3% of foreign-born contacts (P = .002), and TB rates for US/Canadian-born and foreign-born contacts who did not initiate treatment were 3592 and 811 per 100 000 person-years, respectively (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment for LTBI was highly effective in preventing TB among close contacts of infectious TB patients. Several index patient, contact, and exposure characteristics associated with increased risk of contact TB were identified. These findings help inform contact investigation, LTBI treatment, and other public health prevention efforts.

Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States

BACKGROUND

Risk of tuberculosis (TB) declines over time since Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but progression to clinical disease is still possible decades later. In the United States, most TB cases result from the progression of latent TB infection acquired over 2 years ago.

METHODS

We synthesized evidence on TB natural history and incidence trends using a transmission-dynamic model. For the 2020 US population, we estimated average time since infection and annual, cumulative, and remaining lifetime risks of progression to TB, by nativity and age.

RESULTS

For a newly infected adult with no other risk factors for progression to TB, estimated rates of progression declined from 38 (95% uncertainty interval: 33, 46) to 0.38 (0.32, 0.45) per 1000 person-years between the first and 25th year since infection. Cumulative risk over 25 years from new infection was 7.9% (7.0, 8.9). In 2020, an estimated average age of individuals with prevalent infection was 62 (61, 63) for the US-born population, 55 (54, 55) for non-US-born, and 57 (56, 58) overall. Average risks of developing TB over the remaining lifetime were 1.2% (1.0, 1.4) for US-born, 2.2% (1.8, 2.6) for non-US-born, and 1.9% (1.6, 2.2) for the general population. Risk estimates were higher for younger age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that, although newly infected individuals face appreciable lifetime TB risks, most US individuals with latent TB infection were infected long ago, and face low future risks of developing TB. Better approaches are needed for identifying recently infected individuals and those with elevated progression risks.

Impact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States

Rationale: Most U.S. residents who develop tuberculosis (TB) were born abroad, and U.S. TB incidence is increasingly driven by infection risks in other countries.

Objectives: To estimate the potential impact of effective global TB control on health and economic outcomes in the United States.

Methods: We estimated outcomes using linked mathematical models of TB epidemiology in the United States and migrants’ birth countries. A base-case scenario extrapolated country-specific TB incidence trends. We compared this with scenarios in which countries achieve 90% TB incidence reductions between 2015 and 2035, as targeted by the World Health Organization’s End TB Strategy (“effective global TB control”). We also considered pessimistic scenarios of flat TB incidence trends in individual countries.

Measurements and Main Results: We estimated TB cases, deaths, and costs and the total economic burden of TB in the United States. Compared with the base-case scenario, effective global TB control would avert 40,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 29,000–55,000) TB cases in the United States in 2020–2035. TB incidence rates in 2035 would be 43% (95% uncertainty interval, 34–54%) lower than in the base-case scenario, and 49% (95% uncertainty interval, 44–55%) lower than in 2020. Summed over 2020–2035, this represents 0.8 billion dollars (95% uncertainty interval, 0.6–1.0 billion dollars) in averted healthcare costs and $2.5 billion dollars (95% uncertainty interval, 1.7–3.6 billion dollars) in productivity gains. The total U.S. economic burden of TB (including the value of averted TB deaths) would be 21% (95% uncertainty interval, 16–28%) lower (18 billion dollars [95% uncertainty level, 8–32 billion dollars]).

Conclusions: In addition to producing major health benefits for high-burden countries, strengthened efforts to achieve effective global TB control could produce substantial health and economic benefits for the United States.

The impact of HIV infection on tuberculosis transmission in a country with low tuberculosis incidence: a national retrospective study using molecular epidemiology

BACKGROUND

HIV is known to increase the likelihood of reactivation of latent tuberculosis to active TB disease; however, its impact on tuberculosis infectiousness and consequent transmission is unclear, particularly in low-incidence settings.

METHODS

National surveillance data from England, Wales and Northern Ireland on tuberculosis cases in adults from 2010 to 2014, strain typed using 24-locus mycobacterial-interspersed-repetitive-units-variable-number-tandem-repeats was used retrospectively to identify clusters of tuberculosis cases, subdivided into 'first' and 'subsequent' cases. Firstly, we used zero-inflated Poisson regression models to examine the association between HIV status and the number of subsequent clustered cases (a surrogate for tuberculosis infectiousness) in a strain type cluster. Secondly, we used logistic regression to examine the association between HIV status and the likelihood of being a subsequent case in a cluster (a surrogate for recent acquisition of tuberculosis infection) compared to the first case or a non-clustered case (a surrogate for reactivation of latent infection).

RESULTS

We included 18,864 strain-typed cases, 2238 were the first cases of clusters and 8471 were subsequent cases. Seven hundred and fifty-nine (4%) were HIV-positive. Outcome 1: HIV-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases who were the first in a cluster had fewer subsequent cases associated with them (mean 0.6, multivariable incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.75 [0.65-0.86]) than those HIV-negative (mean 1.1). Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) cases with HIV were less likely to be the first case in a cluster compared to HIV-negative EPTB cases. EPTB cases who were the first case had a higher mean number of subsequent cases (mean 2.5, IRR (3.62 [3.12-4.19]) than those HIV-negative (mean 0.6). Outcome 2: tuberculosis cases with HIV co-infection were less likely to be a subsequent case in a cluster (odds ratio 0.82 [0.69-0.98]), compared to being the first or a non-clustered case.

CONCLUSIONS

Outcome 1: pulmonary tuberculosis-HIV patients were less infectious than those without HIV. EPTB patients with HIV who were the first case in a cluster had a higher number of subsequent cases and thus may be markers of other undetected cases, discoverable by contact investigations. Outcome 2: tuberculosis in HIV-positive individuals was more likely due to reactivation than recent infection, compared to those who were HIV-negative.