1
|
Linking mathematical models and trap data to infer the proliferation, abundance, and control of Aedes aegypti. Acta Trop 2023; 239:106837. [PMID: 36657506 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.106837] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2022] [Revised: 01/05/2023] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
Aedes aegypti is one of the most dominant mosquito species in the urban areas of Miami-Dade County, Florida, and is responsible for the local arbovirus transmissions. Since August 2016, mosquito traps have been placed throughout the county to improve surveillance and guide mosquito control and arbovirus outbreak response. In this paper, we develop a deterministic mosquito population model, estimate model parameters by using local entomological and temperature data, and use the model to calibrate the mosquito trap data from 2017 to 2019. We further use the model to compare the Ae. aegypti population and evaluate the impact of rainfall intensity in different urban built environments. Our results show that rainfall affects the breeding sites and the abundance of Ae. aegypti more significantly in tourist areas than in residential places. In addition, we apply the model to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of vector control strategies in Miami-Dade County.
Collapse
|
2
|
Alexander J, Wilke ABB, Mantero A, Vasquez C, Petrie W, Kumar N, Beier JC. Using machine learning to understand microgeographic determinants of the Zika vector, Aedes aegypti. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0265472. [PMID: 36584050 PMCID: PMC9803113 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0265472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2022] [Accepted: 12/13/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
There are limited data on why the 2016 Zika outbreak in Miami-Dade County, Florida was confined to certain neighborhoods. In this research, Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of Zika virus, are studied to examine neighborhood-level differences in their population dynamics and underlying processes. Weekly mosquito data were acquired from the Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control Division from 2016 to 2020 from 172 traps deployed around Miami-Dade County. Using random forest, a machine learning method, predictive models of spatiotemporal dynamics of Ae. aegypti in response to meteorological conditions and neighborhood-specific socio-demographic and physical characteristics, such as land-use and land-cover type and income level, were created. The study area was divided into two groups: areas affected by local transmission of Zika during the 2016 outbreak and unaffected areas. Ae. aegypti populations in areas affected by Zika were more strongly influenced by 14- and 21-day lagged weather conditions. In the unaffected areas, mosquito populations were more strongly influenced by land-use and day-of-collection weather conditions. There are neighborhood-scale differences in Ae. aegypti population dynamics. These differences in turn influence vector-borne disease diffusion in a region. These results have implications for vector control experts to lead neighborhood-specific vector control strategies and for epidemiologists to guide vector-borne disease risk preparations, especially for containing the spread of vector-borne disease in response to ongoing climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jagger Alexander
- University of Miami Department of Public Health, Miami, FL, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - André Barretto Bruno Wilke
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, United States of America
| | - Alejandro Mantero
- University of Miami Department of Public Health, Miami, FL, United States of America
| | - Chalmers Vasquez
- Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control Division, Miami, FL, United States of America
| | - William Petrie
- Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control Division, Miami, FL, United States of America
| | - Naresh Kumar
- University of Miami Department of Public Health, Miami, FL, United States of America
| | - John C. Beier
- University of Miami Department of Public Health, Miami, FL, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Christofferson RC, Wearing HJ, Turner EA, Walsh CS, Salje H, Tran-Kiem C, Cauchemez S. How do i bite thee? let me count the ways: Exploring the implications of individual biting habits of Aedes aegypti for dengue transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010818. [PMID: 36194617 PMCID: PMC9565401 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2021] [Revised: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 09/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
In models of mosquito-borne transmission, the mosquito biting rate is an influential parameter, and understanding the heterogeneity of the process of biting is important, as biting is usually assumed to be relatively homogeneous across individuals, with time-between-bites described by an exponentially distributed process. However, these assumptions have not been addressed through laboratory experimentation. We experimentally investigated the daily biting habits of Ae. aegypti at three temperatures (24°C, 28°C, and 32°C) and determined that there was individual heterogeneity in biting habits (number of bites, timing of bites, etc.). We further explored the consequences of biting heterogeneity using an individual-based model designed to examine whether a particular biting profile determines whether a mosquito is more or less likely to 1) become exposed given a single index case of dengue (DENV) and 2) transmit to a susceptible human individual. Our experimental results indicate that there is heterogeneity among individuals and among temperature treatments. We further show that this results in altered probabilities of transmission of DENV to and from individual mosquitoes based on biting profiles. While current model representation of biting may work under some conditions, it might not uniformly be the best fit for this process. Our data also confirm that biting is a non-monotonic process with temperatures around 28°C being optimum.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca C. Christofferson
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America
- Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Helen J. Wearing
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States of America
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Erik A. Turner
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Christine S. Walsh
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 2000, Paris, France
| | - Cécile Tran-Kiem
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 2000, Paris, France
- Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 2000, Paris, France
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Kaye AR, Hart WS, Bromiley J, Iwami S, Thompson RN. A direct comparison of methods for assessing the threat from emerging infectious diseases in seasonally varying environments. J Theor Biol 2022; 548:111195. [PMID: 35716723 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111195] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2021] [Revised: 05/04/2022] [Accepted: 06/06/2022] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
Seasonal variations in environmental conditions lead to changing infectious disease epidemic risks at different times of year. The probability that early cases initiate a major epidemic depends on the season in which the pathogen enters the population. The instantaneous epidemic risk (IER) can be tracked. This quantity is straightforward to calculate, and corresponds to the probability of a major epidemic starting from a single case introduced at time t=t0, assuming that environmental conditions remain identical from that time onwards (i.e. for all t≥t0). However, the threat when a pathogen enters the population in fact depends on changes in environmental conditions occurring within the timescale of the initial phase of the outbreak. For that reason, we compare the IER with a different metric: the case epidemic risk (CER). The CER corresponds to the probability of a major epidemic starting from a single case entering the population at time t=t0, accounting for changes in environmental conditions after that time. We show how the IER and CER can be calculated using different epidemiological models (the stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed model and a stochastic host-vector model that is parameterised using temperature data for Miami) in which transmission parameters vary temporally. While the IER is always easy to calculate numerically, the adaptable method we provide for calculating the CER for the host-vector model can also be applied easily and solved using widely available software tools. In line with previous research, we demonstrate that if a pathogen is likely to either invade the population or fade out on a fast timescale compared to changes in environmental conditions, the IER closely matches the CER. However, if this is not the case, the IER and the CER can be significantly different, and so the CER should be used. This demonstrates the need to consider future changes in environmental conditions carefully when assessing the risk posed by emerging pathogens.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- A R Kaye
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | - W S Hart
- Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - J Bromiley
- Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - S Iwami
- Department of Biology, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
| | - R N Thompson
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Investigation of Biological Factors Contributing to Individual Variation in Viral Titer after Oral Infection of Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes by Sindbis Virus. Viruses 2022; 14:v14010131. [PMID: 35062335 PMCID: PMC8780610 DOI: 10.3390/v14010131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Revised: 01/06/2022] [Accepted: 01/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
The mechanisms involved in determining arbovirus vector competence, or the ability of an arbovirus to infect and be transmitted by an arthropod vector, are still incompletely understood. It is well known that vector competence for a particular arbovirus can vary widely among different populations of a mosquito species, which is generally attributed to genetic differences between populations. What is less understood is the considerable variability (up to several logs) that is routinely observed in the virus titer between individual mosquitoes in a single experiment, even in mosquitoes from highly inbred lines. This extreme degree of variation in the virus titer between individual mosquitoes has been largely ignored in past studies. We investigated which biological factors can affect titer variation between individual mosquitoes of a laboratory strain of Aedes aegypti, the Orlando strain, after Sindbis virus infection. Greater titer variation was observed after oral versus intrathoracic infection, suggesting that the midgut barrier contributes to titer variability. Among the other factors tested, only the length of the incubation period affected the degree of titer variability, while virus strain, mosquito strain, mosquito age, mosquito weight, amount of blood ingested, and virus concentration in the blood meal had no discernible effect. We also observed differences in culture adaptability and in the ability to orally infect mosquitoes between virus populations obtained from low and high titer mosquitoes, suggesting that founder effects may affect the virus titer in individual mosquitoes, although other explanations also remain possible.
Collapse
|
6
|
Angina J, Bachhu A, Talati E, Talati R, Rychtář J, Taylor D. Game-Theoretical Model of the Voluntary Use of Insect Repellents to Prevent Zika Fever. DYNAMIC GAMES AND APPLICATIONS 2022; 12:133-146. [PMID: 35127230 PMCID: PMC8800840 DOI: 10.1007/s13235-021-00418-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/10/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Zika fever is an emerging mosquito-borne disease. While it often causes no or only mild symptoms that are similar to dengue fever, Zika virus can spread from a pregnant woman to her baby and cause severe birth defects. There is no specific treatment or vaccine, but the disease can be mitigated by using several control strategies, generally focusing on the reduction in mosquitoes or mosquito bites. In this paper, we model Zika virus transmission and incorporate a game-theoretical approach to study a repeated population game of DEET usage to prevent insect bites. We show that the optimal use effectively leads to disease elimination. This result is robust and not significantly dependent on the cost of the insect repellents.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jabili Angina
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2012 USA
| | - Anish Bachhu
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2012 USA
| | - Eesha Talati
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2012 USA
| | - Rishi Talati
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2012 USA
| | - Jan Rychtář
- Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2014 USA
| | - Dewey Taylor
- Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2014 USA
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Mayton EH, Tramonte AR, Wearing HJ, Christofferson RC. Age-structured vectorial capacity reveals timing, not magnitude of within-mosquito dynamics is critical for arbovirus fitness assessment. Parasit Vectors 2020; 13:310. [PMID: 32539759 PMCID: PMC7296759 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04181-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2020] [Accepted: 06/10/2020] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Transmission dynamics of arboviruses like Zika virus are often evaluated by vector competence (the proportion of infectious vectors given exposure) and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, the time it takes for a vector to become infectious), but vector age is another critical driver of transmission dynamics. Vectorial capacity (VC) is a measure of transmission potential of a vector-pathogen system, but how these three components, EIP, vector competence and vector age, affect VC in concert still needs study. Methods The interaction of vector competence, EIP, and mosquito age at the time of infection acquisition (Ageacquisition) was experimentally measured in an Aedes aegypti-ZIKV model system, as well as the age-dependence of probability of survival and the willingness to bite. An age-structured vectorial capacity framework (VCage) was then developed using both EIPMin and EIPMax, defined as the time to first observed minimum proportion of transmitting mosquitoes and the time to observed maximum proportion of transmitting mosquitoes. Results The within-mosquito dynamics of vector competence/EIP were not significant among treatments where mosquitoes were exposed at different ages. However, VCage revealed: (i) age-dependence in vector-virus interactions is important for transmission success; (ii) lower vector competence but at shorter EIPs was sufficient for transmission perpetuation; and (iii) R0 may be overestimated by using non-age-structured VC. Conclusions The results indicate that ultimately the temporal component of the virus-vector dynamics is most critical, especially when exposure occurred at advanced mosquito age. While our study is limited to a single virus-vector system, and a multitude of other factors affect both vector competence and mosquito mortality, our methods can be extrapolated to these other scenarios. Results indicate that how ‘highly’ or ‘negligibly’ competent vectors are categorized may need adjustment.![]()
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- E Handly Mayton
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
| | - A Ryan Tramonte
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
| | - Helen J Wearing
- Departments of Biology and Mathematics & Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - Rebecca C Christofferson
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA. .,Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Chowell G, Mizumoto K, Banda JM, Poccia S, Perrings C. Assessing the potential impact of vector-borne disease transmission following heavy rainfall events: a mathematical framework. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2020; 374:20180272. [PMID: 31056044 PMCID: PMC6553605 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting the impact of natural disasters such as hurricanes on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases poses significant challenges. In this paper, we put forward a simple modelling framework to investigate the impact of heavy rainfall events (HREs) on mosquito-borne disease transmission in temperate areas of the world such as the southern coastal areas of the USA. In particular, we explore the impact of the timing of HREs relative to the transmission season via analyses that test the sensitivity of HRE-induced epidemics to variation in the effects of rainfall on the dynamics of mosquito breeding capacity, and the intensity and temporal profile of human population displacement patterns. The recent Hurricane Harvey in Texas motivates the simulations reported. Overall, we find that the impact of vector-borne disease transmission is likely to be greater the earlier the HREs occur in the transmission season. Simulations based on data for Hurricane Harvey suggest that the limited impact it had on vector-borne disease transmission was in part because of when it occurred (late August) relative to the local transmission season, and in part because of the mitigating effect of the displacement of people. We also highlight key data gaps related to models of vector-borne disease transmission in the context of natural disasters. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- G Chowell
- 1 Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University , Atlanta, GA 30303 , USA
| | - K Mizumoto
- 1 Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University , Atlanta, GA 30303 , USA
| | - J M Banda
- 2 Computer Science Department, Georgia State University , Atlanta, GA 30303 , USA
| | - S Poccia
- 3 Computer Science Department, University of Turin , 10124 Turin, Italy
| | - C Perrings
- 4 School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University , Tempe, AZ 85281 , USA
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Wei Y, Wang J, Song Z, He Y, Zheng Z, Fan P, Yang D, Zhou G, Zhong D, Zheng X. Patterns of spatial genetic structures in Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) populations in China. Parasit Vectors 2019; 12:552. [PMID: 31752961 PMCID: PMC6873696 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-019-3801-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2019] [Accepted: 11/10/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is one of the 100 worst invasive species in the world and the vector for several arboviruses including dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses. Understanding the population spatial genetic structure, migration, and gene flow of vector species is critical to effectively preventing and controlling vector-borne diseases. Little is known about the population structure and genetic differentiation of native Ae. albopictus in China. The aim of this study was to examine the patterns of the spatial genetic structures of native Ae. albopictus populations, and their relationship to dengue incidence, on a large geographical scale. Methods During 2016–2018, adult female Ae. albopictus mosquitoes were collected by human landing catch (HLC) or human-bait sweep-net collections in 34 localities across China. Thirteen microsatellite markers were used to examine the patterns of genetic diversity, population structure, and gene flow among native Ae. albopictus populations. The correlation between population genetic indices and dengue incidence was also examined. Results A total of 153 distinct alleles were identified at the 13 microsatellite loci in the tested populations. All loci were polymorphic, with the number of distinct alleles ranging from eight to sixteen. Genetic parameters such as PIC, heterozygosity, allelic richness and fixation index (FST) revealed highly polymorphic markers, high genetic diversity, and low population genetic differentiation. In addition, Bayesian analysis of population structure showed two distinct genetic groups in southern-western and eastern-central-northern China. The Mantel test indicated a positive correlation between genetic distance and geographical distance (R2 = 0.245, P = 0.01). STRUCTURE analysis, PCoA and GLS interpolation analysis indicated that Ae. albopictus populations in China were regionally clustered. Gene flow and relatedness estimates were generally high between populations. We observed no correlation between population genetic indices of microsatellite loci in Ae. albopictus populations and dengue incidence. Conclusion Strong gene flow probably assisted by human activities inhibited population differentiation and promoted genetic diversity among populations of Ae. albopictus. This may represent a potential risk of rapid spread of mosquito-borne diseases. The spatial genetic structure, coupled with the association between genetic indices and dengue incidence, may have important implications for understanding the epidemiology, prevention, and control of vector-borne diseases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yong Wei
- Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jiatian Wang
- Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zhangyao Song
- Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yulan He
- Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zihao Zheng
- Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Peiyang Fan
- Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Dizi Yang
- Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Guofa Zhou
- Program in Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of California, Irvine, USA
| | - Daibin Zhong
- Program in Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of California, Irvine, USA
| | - Xueli Zheng
- Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
A vector-host model to assess the impact of superinfection exclusion on vaccination strategies using dengue and yellow fever as case studies. J Theor Biol 2019; 484:110014. [PMID: 31557473 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2018] [Revised: 09/05/2019] [Accepted: 09/15/2019] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
Superinfection exclusion is a phenomenon whereby the co-infection of a host with a secondary pathogen is prevented due to a current infection by another closely-related pathogenic strain. We construct a novel vector-host mathematical model for two pathogens that exhibit superinfection exclusion and simultaneously account for vaccination strategies against them. We then derive the conditions under which an endemic disease will prevent the establishment of another through the action of superinfection exclusion and show that vaccination against the endemic strain can enable the previously suppressed strain to invade the population. Through appropriate parameterisation of the model for dengue and yellow fever we find that superinfection exclusion alone is unlikely to explain the absence of yellow fever in many regions where dengue is endemic, and that the rollout of the recently licensed dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia, is unlikely to enable the establishment of Yellow Fever in regions where it has previously been absent.
Collapse
|
11
|
Robert MA, Christofferson RC, Weber PD, Wearing HJ. Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change. Epidemics 2019; 28:100344. [PMID: 31175008 PMCID: PMC6791375 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.05.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2018] [Revised: 04/02/2019] [Accepted: 05/05/2019] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Tropical mosquito-borne viruses have been expanding into more temperate regions in recent decades. This is partly due to the coupled effects of temperature on mosquito life history traits and viral infection dynamics and warming surface temperatures, resulting in more suitable conditions for vectors and virus transmission. In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted future increases in mean temperatures due to climate change. We find that climate change will likely lead to increases in suitability for dengue transmission and will increase the periods of the year in which introductions may lead to outbreaks, particularly in cities that typically have mild winters and warm summers, such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and El Paso, Texas. We discuss our results in the context of temperature heterogeneity within and across cities and how these differences may impact the potential for dengue emergence given present day and predicted future temperatures.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Michael A Robert
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Department of Mathematics, Physics, and Statistics, University of the Sciences, Philadelphia, PA, United States.
| | - Rebecca C Christofferson
- Department of Pathobiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States; Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States
| | - Paula D Weber
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States
| | - Helen J Wearing
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Populations, megapopulations, and the areal unit problem. Health Place 2018; 54:79-84. [DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2018.09.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2017] [Revised: 08/26/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
|
13
|
Zou L, Chen J, Feng X, Ruan S. Analysis of a Dengue Model with Vertical Transmission and Application to the 2014 Dengue Outbreak in Guangdong Province, China. Bull Math Biol 2018; 80:2633-2651. [PMID: 30083966 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-018-0480-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2017] [Accepted: 07/23/2018] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
There is evidence showing that vertical transmission of dengue virus exists in Aedes mosquitoes. In this paper, we propose a deterministic dengue model with vertical transmission in mosquitoes by including aquatic mosquitoes (eggs, larvae and pupae), adult mosquitoes (susceptible, exposed and infectious) and human hosts (susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered). We first analyze the existence and stability of disease-free equilibria, calculate the basic reproduction number and discuss the existence of the disease-endemic equilibrium. Then, we study the impact of vertical transmission of the virus in mosquitoes on the spread dynamics of dengue. We also use the model to simulate the reported infected human data from the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangdong Province, China, carry out sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of the model parameters, and seek for effective control measures for the transmission of dengue virus.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lan Zou
- Department of Mathematics, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610064, Sichuan, China
| | - Jing Chen
- Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography, Nova Southeastern University, 3301 College Ave., Fort Lauderdale, FL, 33314, USA
| | - Xiaomei Feng
- Department of Mathematics, Yuncheng University, Yuncheng, 044000, Shanxi, China
| | - Shigui Ruan
- Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, 33146, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Chen J, Beier JC, Cantrell RS, Cosner C, Fuller DO, Guan Y, Zhang G, Ruan S. Modeling the importation and local transmission of vector-borne diseases in Florida: The case of Zika outbreak in 2016. J Theor Biol 2018; 455:342-356. [PMID: 30053386 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.07.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2017] [Revised: 07/16/2018] [Accepted: 07/22/2018] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
Abstract
Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses are all transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito species, had been imported to Florida and caused local outbreaks. We propose a deterministic model to study the importation and local transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. The purpose is to model and mimic the importation of these viruses to Florida via travelers, local infections in domestic mosquitoes by imported travelers, and finally non-travel related transmissions to local humans by infected local mosquitoes. As a case study, the model will be used to simulate the accumulative Zika cases in Florida. Since the disease system is driven by a continuing input of infections from outside sources, orthodox analytic methods based on the calculation of the basic reproduction number are inadequate to describe and predict their behavior. Via steady-state analysis and sensitivity analysis, effective control and prevention measures for these mosquito-borne diseases are tested.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jing Chen
- Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography, Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33314, USA
| | - John C Beier
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami,Miami, FL 33136, USA
| | | | - Chris Cosner
- Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250, USA
| | - Douglas O Fuller
- Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA
| | - Yongtao Guan
- Department of Management Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-6544, USA
| | - Guoyan Zhang
- Florida Department of Health, Miami-Dade County, Epidemiology, Disease Control and Immunizations Services, 8600 NW 17th Street, Suite 200, Miami, FL 33126, USA
| | - Shigui Ruan
- Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Travel distance and human movement predict paths of emergence and spatial spread of chikungunya in Thailand. Epidemiol Infect 2018; 146:1654-1662. [PMID: 29983134 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268818001917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Human movement contributes to the probability that pathogens will be introduced to new geographic locations. Here we investigate the impact of human movement on the spatial spread of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Southern Thailand during a recent re-emergence. We hypothesised that human movement, population density, the presence of habitat conducive to vectors, rainfall and temperature affect the transmission of CHIKV and the spatiotemporal pattern of cases seen during the emergence. We fit metapopulation transmission models to CHIKV incidence data. The dates at which incidence in each of 151 districts in Southern Thailand exceeded specified thresholds were the target of model fits. We confronted multiple alternative models to determine which factors were most influential in the spatial spread. We considered multiple measures of spatial distance between districts and adjacency networks and also looked for evidence of long-distance translocation (LDT) events. The best fit model included driving-distance between districts, human movement, rubber plantation area and three LDT events. This work has important implications for predicting the spatial spread and targeting resources for control in future CHIKV emergences. Our modelling framework could also be adapted to other disease systems where population mobility may drive the spatial advance of outbreaks.
Collapse
|
16
|
Marini G, Guzzetta G, Rosà R, Merler S. First outbreak of Zika virus in the continental United States: a modelling analysis. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2018; 22:30612. [PMID: 28933344 PMCID: PMC5607655 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2017.22.37.30612] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2017] [Accepted: 04/11/2017] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) has spread throughout Latin and Central America. This emerging infectious disease has been causing considerable public health concern because of severe neurological complications, especially in newborns after congenital infections. In July 2016, the first outbreak in the continental United States was identified in the Wynwood neighbourhood of Miami-Dade County, Florida. In this work, we investigated transmission dynamics using a mathematical model calibrated to observed data on mosquito abundance and symptomatic human infections. We found that, although ZIKV transmission was detected in July 2016, the first importation may have occurred between March and mid-April. The estimated highest value for R0 was 2.73 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.65–4.17); the attack rate was 14% (95% CI: 5.6–27.4%), with 15 (95% CI: 6–29) pregnant women involved and a 12% probability of infected blood donations. Vector control avoided 60% of potential infections. According to our results, it is likely that further ZIKV outbreaks identified in other areas of Miami-Dade County were seeded by commuters to Wynwood rather than by additional importation from international travellers. Our study can help prepare future outbreak-related interventions in European areas where competent mosquitoes for ZIKV transmission are already established.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Marini
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige (Trento), Italy
| | | | - Roberto Rosà
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige (Trento), Italy
| | | |
Collapse
|
17
|
Sallam MF, Fizer C, Pilant AN, Whung PY. Systematic Review: Land Cover, Meteorological, and Socioeconomic Determinants of Aedes Mosquito Habitat for Risk Mapping. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2017; 14:E1230. [PMID: 29035317 PMCID: PMC5664731 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph14101230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2017] [Revised: 09/29/2017] [Accepted: 10/06/2017] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
Asian tiger and yellow fever mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus and Ae. aegypti) are global nuisances and are competent vectors for viruses such as Chikungunya (CHIKV), Dengue (DV), and Zika (ZIKV). This review aims to analyze available spatiotemporal distribution models of Aedes mosquitoes and their influential factors. A combination of five sets of 3-5 keywords were used to retrieve all relevant published models. Five electronic search databases were used: PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, and Google Scholar through 17 May 2017. We generated a hierarchical decision tree for article selection. We identified 21 relevant published studies that highlight different combinations of methodologies, models and influential factors. Only a few studies adopted a comprehensive approach highlighting the interaction between environmental, socioeconomic, meteorological and topographic systems. The selected articles showed inconsistent findings in terms of number and type of influential factors affecting the distribution of Aedes vectors, which is most likely attributed to: (i) limited availability of high-resolution data for physical variables, (ii) variation in sampling methods; Aedes feeding and oviposition behavior; (iii) data collinearity and statistical distribution of observed data. This review highlights the need and sets the stage for a rigorous multi-system modeling approach to improve our knowledge about Aedes presence/abundance within their flight range in response to the interaction between environmental, socioeconomic, and meteorological systems.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mohamed F Sallam
- Resilient Environment and Health, Agriculture and Water Solutions, National Exposure Research laboratory/System Exposure Division, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, 109 T.W. Alexander Dr., Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA.
| | - Chelsea Fizer
- Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Contractor to US EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA.
| | - Andrew N Pilant
- Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, Oak Ridge, NC 27711, USA.
| | - Pai-Yei Whung
- Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, Oak Ridge, NC 27711, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Saiz JC, Martín-Acebes MA, Bueno-Marí R, Salomón OD, Villamil-Jiménez LC, Heukelbach J, Alencar CH, Armstrong PK, Ortiga-Carvalho TM, Mendez-Otero R, Rosado-de-Castro PH, Pimentel-Coelho PM. Zika Virus: What Have We Learnt Since the Start of the Recent Epidemic? Front Microbiol 2017; 8:1554. [PMID: 28878742 PMCID: PMC5572254 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2017.01554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2017] [Accepted: 07/31/2017] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Zika is a viral disease transmitted mainly by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. In recent years, it has expanded geographically, changing from an endemic mosquito-borne disease across equatorial Asia and Africa, to an epidemic disease causing large outbreaks in several areas of the world. With the recent Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks in the Americas, the disease has become a focus of attention of public health agencies and of the international research community, especially due to an association with neurological disorders in adults and to the severe neurological and ophthalmological abnormalities found in fetuses and newborns of mothers exposed to ZIKV during pregnancy. A large number of studies have been published in the last 3 years, revealing the structure of the virus, how it is transmitted and how it affects human cells. Many different animal models have been developed, which recapitulate several features of ZIKV disease and its neurological consequences. Moreover, several vaccine candidates are now in active preclinical development, and three of them have already entered phase I clinical trials. Likewise, many different compounds targeting viral and cellular components are being tested in in vitro and in experimental animal models. This review aims to discuss the current state of this rapidly growing literature from a multidisciplinary perspective, as well as to present an overview of the public health response to Zika and of the perspectives for the prevention and treatment of this disease.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Juan-Carlos Saiz
- Department of Biotechnology, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y AlimentariaMadrid, Spain
| | - Miguel A. Martín-Acebes
- Department of Biotechnology, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y AlimentariaMadrid, Spain
| | - Rubén Bueno-Marí
- Departamento de Investigación y Desarrollo (I+D), Laboratorios LokímicaValencia, Spain
| | | | | | - Jorg Heukelbach
- Department of Community Health, School of Medicine, Federal University of CearáFortaleza, Brazil
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, Division of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, TownsvilleQLD, Australia
| | - Carlos H. Alencar
- Department of Community Health, School of Medicine, Federal University of CearáFortaleza, Brazil
| | - Paul K. Armstrong
- Communicable Disease Control Directorate, Western Australia Department of Health, PerthWA, Australia
| | - Tania M. Ortiga-Carvalho
- Instituto de Biofísica Carlos Chagas Filho, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroRio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Rosalia Mendez-Otero
- Instituto de Biofísica Carlos Chagas Filho, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroRio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Paulo H. Rosado-de-Castro
- Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroRio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Instituto D’Or de Pesquisa e EnsinoRio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Pedro M. Pimentel-Coelho
- Instituto de Biofísica Carlos Chagas Filho, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroRio de Janeiro, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
19
|
Grubaugh ND, Ladner JT, Kraemer MUG, Dudas G, Tan AL, Gangavarapu K, Wiley MR, White S, Thézé J, Magnani DM, Prieto K, Reyes D, Bingham AM, Paul LM, Robles-Sikisaka R, Oliveira G, Pronty D, Barcellona CM, Metsky HC, Baniecki ML, Barnes KG, Chak B, Freije CA, Gladden-Young A, Gnirke A, Luo C, MacInnis B, Matranga CB, Park DJ, Qu J, Schaffner SF, Tomkins-Tinch C, West KL, Winnicki SM, Wohl S, Yozwiak NL, Quick J, Fauver JR, Khan K, Brent SE, Reiner RC, Lichtenberger PN, Ricciardi MJ, Bailey VK, Watkins DI, Cone MR, Kopp EW, Hogan KN, Cannons AC, Jean R, Monaghan AJ, Garry RF, Loman NJ, Faria NR, Porcelli MC, Vasquez C, Nagle ER, Cummings DAT, Stanek D, Rambaut A, Sanchez-Lockhart M, Sabeti PC, Gillis LD, Michael SF, Bedford T, Pybus OG, Isern S, Palacios G, Andersen KG. Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of Zika virus into the United States. Nature 2017; 546:401-405. [PMID: 28538723 PMCID: PMC5536180 DOI: 10.1038/nature22400] [Citation(s) in RCA: 234] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2017] [Accepted: 04/28/2017] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV) is causing an unprecedented epidemic linked to severe congenital abnormalities. In July 2016, mosquito-borne ZIKV transmission was reported in the continental United States; since then, hundreds of locally acquired infections have been reported in Florida. To gain insights into the timing, source, and likely route(s) of ZIKV introduction, we tracked the virus from its first detection in Florida by sequencing ZIKV genomes from infected patients and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. We show that at least 4 introductions, but potentially as many as 40, contributed to the outbreak in Florida and that local transmission is likely to have started in the spring of 2016-several months before its initial detection. By analysing surveillance and genetic data, we show that ZIKV moved among transmission zones in Miami. Our analyses show that most introductions were linked to the Caribbean, a finding corroborated by the high incidence rates and traffic volumes from the region into the Miami area. Our study provides an understanding of how ZIKV initiates transmission in new regions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nathan D Grubaugh
- Department of Immunology and Microbial Science, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, California 92037, USA
| | - Jason T Ladner
- Center for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Maryland 21702, USA
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
- Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA
| | - Gytis Dudas
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109, USA
| | - Amanda L Tan
- Department of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, Florida 33965, USA
| | - Karthik Gangavarapu
- Department of Immunology and Microbial Science, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, California 92037, USA
| | - Michael R Wiley
- Center for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Maryland 21702, USA
- College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska 68198, USA
| | - Stephen White
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Miami, Florida 33125, USA
| | - Julien Thézé
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
| | - Diogo M Magnani
- Department of Pathology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida 33136, USA
| | - Karla Prieto
- Center for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Maryland 21702, USA
- College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska 68198, USA
| | - Daniel Reyes
- Center for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Maryland 21702, USA
- Department of Pathology and Microbiology, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska 68198, USA
| | - Andrea M Bingham
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, Florida 32399, USA
| | - Lauren M Paul
- Department of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, Florida 33965, USA
| | - Refugio Robles-Sikisaka
- Department of Immunology and Microbial Science, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, California 92037, USA
| | - Glenn Oliveira
- Scripps Translational Science Institute, La Jolla, California 92037, USA
| | - Darryl Pronty
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Miami, Florida 33125, USA
| | - Carolyn M Barcellona
- Department of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, Florida 33965, USA
| | - Hayden C Metsky
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - Mary Lynn Baniecki
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - Kayla G Barnes
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - Bridget Chak
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - Catherine A Freije
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | | | - Andreas Gnirke
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - Cynthia Luo
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - Bronwyn MacInnis
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | | | - Daniel J Park
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - James Qu
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | | | | | - Kendra L West
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - Sarah M Winnicki
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - Shirlee Wohl
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - Nathan L Yozwiak
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
| | - Joshua Quick
- Institute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - Joseph R Fauver
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523, USA
| | - Kamran Khan
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario M5B 1T8, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A8, Canada
| | - Shannon E Brent
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario M5B 1T8, Canada
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98121, USA
| | - Paola N Lichtenberger
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida 33136, USA
| | - Michael J Ricciardi
- Department of Pathology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida 33136, USA
| | - Varian K Bailey
- Department of Pathology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida 33136, USA
| | - David I Watkins
- Department of Pathology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida 33136, USA
| | - Marshall R Cone
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, Florida 33612, USA
| | - Edgar W Kopp
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, Florida 33612, USA
| | - Kelly N Hogan
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, Florida 33612, USA
| | - Andrew C Cannons
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, Florida 33612, USA
| | - Reynald Jean
- Florida Department of Health in Miami-Dade County, Miami, Florida 33125, USA
| | - Andrew J Monaghan
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA
| | - Robert F Garry
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112, USA
| | - Nicholas J Loman
- Institute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - Nuno R Faria
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
| | | | | | - Elyse R Nagle
- Center for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Maryland 21702, USA
- Department of Pathology and Microbiology, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska 68198, USA
| | - Derek A T Cummings
- Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32610, USA
| | - Danielle Stanek
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, Florida 32399, USA
| | - Andrew Rambaut
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892, USA
| | - Mariano Sanchez-Lockhart
- Center for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Maryland 21702, USA
- Department of Pathology and Microbiology, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska 68198, USA
| | - Pardis C Sabeti
- The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
- Center for Systems Biology, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Chevy Chase, Maryland 20815, USA
| | - Leah D Gillis
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Miami, Florida 33125, USA
| | - Scott F Michael
- Department of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, Florida 33965, USA
| | - Trevor Bedford
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109, USA
| | - Oliver G Pybus
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
| | - Sharon Isern
- Department of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, Florida 33965, USA
| | - Gustavo Palacios
- Center for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Maryland 21702, USA
| | - Kristian G Andersen
- Department of Immunology and Microbial Science, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, California 92037, USA
- Scripps Translational Science Institute, La Jolla, California 92037, USA
- Department of Integrative Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, California 92037, USA
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Fine-scale variation in microclimate across an urban landscape shapes variation in mosquito population dynamics and the potential of Aedes albopictus to transmit arboviral disease. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005640. [PMID: 28558030 PMCID: PMC5466343 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005640] [Citation(s) in RCA: 91] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2016] [Revised: 06/09/2017] [Accepted: 05/12/2017] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Most statistical and mechanistic models used to predict mosquito-borne disease transmission incorporate climate drivers of disease transmission by utilizing environmental data collected at geographic scales that are potentially coarser than what mosquito populations may actually experience. Temperature and relative humidity can vary greatly between indoor and outdoor environments, and can be influenced strongly by variation in landscape features. In the Aedes albopictus system, we conducted a proof-of-concept study in the vicinity of the University of Georgia to explore the effects of fine-scale microclimate variation on mosquito life history and vectorial capacity (VC). We placed Ae. albopictus larvae in artificial pots distributed across three replicate sites within three different land uses–urban, suburban, and rural, which were characterized by high, intermediate, and low proportions of impervious surfaces. Data loggers were placed into each larval environment and in nearby vegetation to record daily variation in water and ambient temperature and relative humidity. The number of adults emerging from each pot and their body size and sex were recorded daily. We found mosquito microclimate to significantly vary across the season as well as with land use. Urban sites were in general warmer and less humid than suburban and rural sites, translating into decreased larval survival, smaller body sizes, and lower per capita growth rates of mosquitoes on urban sites. Dengue transmission potential was predicted to be higher in the summer than the fall. Additionally, the effects of land use on dengue transmission potential varied by season. Warm summers resulted in a higher predicted VC on the cooler, rural sites, while warmer, urban sites had a higher predicted VC during the cooler fall season. Environmental factors influence the dynamics of mosquito-borne disease transmission. Most models used to predict mosquito-borne disease transmission incorporate climate data collected at coarser scales than mosquitoes typically experience. Climate conditions can vary greatly between indoor and outdoor environments, and are influenced by landscape features. We conducted a field experiment with the Asian tiger mosquito to explore how microclimate variation across an urban landscape affects mosquito life history and potential to transmit arboviruses, like dengue. We demonstrate that climate conditions captured by weather stations do not reflect relevant mosquito microclimate, and that subtle variation in mean and diurnal ranges of temperature and relative humidity can lead to appreciable variation in key mosquito / pathogen traits that are important for transmission. Our results have implications for statistical and mechanistic models used to predict variation in transmission across seasons, regions, and land uses, but also for building in realistic environmental variation in laboratory work on mosquito-pathogen interactions. Finally, the variation in microclimate we observed across land use was subtle; likely because our study site is a relatively small city. Nevertheless, these translated into considerable differences in mosquito traits and dengue transmission potential, suggesting these effects could be much larger in more expansive cities.
Collapse
|
21
|
Fitzgibbon WE, Morgan JJ, Webb GF. An outbreak vector-host epidemic model with spatial structure: the 2015-2016 Zika outbreak in Rio De Janeiro. Theor Biol Med Model 2017; 14:7. [PMID: 28347332 PMCID: PMC5368945 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-017-0051-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2016] [Accepted: 03/07/2017] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Background A deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors to susceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an outbreak that arises from a small number of infected hosts imported into a subregion of the geographical setting. The goal is to understand how spatial heterogeneity of the vector and host populations influences the dynamics of the outbreak, in both the geographical spread and the final size of the epidemic. Methods Partial differential equations are formulated to describe the spatial interaction of the hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations have reaction-diffusion terms to describe the criss-cross interactions of hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations of the model are analyzed and proven to be well-posed. A local basic reproduction number for the epidemic is analyzed. Results The epidemic outcomes of the model are correlated to the spatially dependent parameters and initial conditions of the model. The partial differential equations of the model are adapted to seasonality of the vector population, and applied to the 2015–2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality in Brazil. Conclusions The results for the model simulations of the 2015–2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality indicate that the spatial distribution and final size of the epidemic at the end of the season are strongly dependent on the location and magnitude of local outbreaks at the beginning of the season. The application of the model to the Rio de Janeiro Municipality Zika 2015–2016 outbreak is limited by incompleteness of the epidemic data and by uncertainties in the parametric assumptions of the model.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- W E Fitzgibbon
- Department of Mathematics, University of Houston, Houston, 77204, TX, USA
| | - J J Morgan
- Department of Mathematics, University of Houston, Houston, 77204, TX, USA
| | - G F Webb
- Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, 37240, TN, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
22
|
Manore CA, Ostfeld RS, Agusto FB, Gaff H, LaDeau SL. Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005255. [PMID: 28095405 PMCID: PMC5319773 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2016] [Revised: 02/21/2017] [Accepted: 12/13/2016] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Carrie A. Manore
- Center for Computational Science Tulane University New Orleans, LA, United States of America
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM, United States of America
- New Mexico Consortium, Suite 301 Los Alamos, NM, United States of America
| | - Richard S. Ostfeld
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Box AB, 2801 Sharon Turnpike Millbrook, NY United States of America
| | - Folashade B. Agusto
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Kansas Haworth Hall Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
| | - Holly Gaff
- Department of Biological Sciences Old Dominion University Norfolk, VA, United States of America
- Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science University of KwaZulu-Natal Durban, South Africa
| | - Shannon L. LaDeau
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Box AB, 2801 Sharon Turnpike Millbrook, NY United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Dinh L, Chowell G, Mizumoto K, Nishiura H. Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016. Theor Biol Med Model 2016; 13:20. [PMID: 27829439 PMCID: PMC5103397 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2016] [Accepted: 10/23/2016] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Florida State has reported autochthonous transmission of Zika virus since late July 2016. Here we assessed the transmissibility associated with the outbreak and generated a short-term forecast. METHODS Time-dependent dynamics of imported cases reported in the state of Florida was approximated by a logistic growth equation. We estimated the reproduction number using the renewal equation in order to predict the incidence of local cases arising from both local and imported primary cases. Using a bootstrap method together with the logistic and renewal equations, a short-term forecast of local and imported cases was carried out. RESULTS The reproduction number was estimated at 0.16 (95 % Confidence Interval: 0.13, 0.19). Employing the logistic equation to capture a drastic decline in the number of imported cases expected through the course of 2016, together with the low estimate of the local reproduction number in Florida, the expected number of local reported cases was demonstrated to show an evident declining trend for the remainder of 2016. CONCLUSIONS The risk of local transmission in the state of Florida is predicted to dramatically decline by the end of 2016.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Linh Dinh
- School of Public Health, Georgia State University, 1 Park Place, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Gerardo Chowell
- School of Public Health, Georgia State University, 1 Park Place, Atlanta, GA, USA.,Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Kenji Mizumoto
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan.,CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4-1-8, Honcho, Kawaguchi-shi, Saitama, 332-0012, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Nishiura
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo, 060-8638, Japan. .,CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4-1-8, Honcho, Kawaguchi-shi, Saitama, 332-0012, Japan.
| |
Collapse
|