Disease burden of 2013-2014 seasonal influenza in adults in Korea

An 8-Year Prospective, Observational, Multi-centre Post-Marketing Safety Surveillance Study Conducted in South Korea (2014-2022) Following the Introduction of GSK's Inactivated Quadrivalent Seasonal Influenza Vaccine (Fluarix Tetra) for Subjects Aged 6 Months and Older

INTRODUCTION

Seasonal influenza is associated with substantial public health burden. The objective of this study was to assess the safety of inactivated quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (IIV4, Fluarix Tetra, GSK, Belgium) in subjects aged ≥ 6 months in Korea.

METHODS

This prospective, observational, non-comparative, multi-centre post-marketing surveillance study was conducted in Korea in subjects aged ≥ 3 years for 6 years (2014-2020) and extended to subjects aged 6-35 months for 4 years (2018-2022). Subjects received IIV4 in routine clinical practice according to local prescribing information. Adverse events (AEs) were recorded over 21 days post-vaccination.

RESULTS

The group aged ≥ 3 years included 701 subjects (mean 31.97 years, range 3-86 years, 46.36% male), and the group aged 6-35 months included 687 subjects (mean 16.31 months, 47.02% male). In the group aged ≥ 3 years, 98 subjects (13.98%) reported 140 AEs, of which 42 events in 34 subjects (4.85%) were adverse reactions to vaccine (ARVs). Most of the ARVs were expected, mainly administration site reactions. There were seven mild unexpected ARVs. In the group aged 6-35 months, 248 AEs were reported in 149/687 subjects (21.69%). ARVs were reported in 25/687 subjects (3.64%, 29 events); one was considered unexpected. There were five serious AEs overall, none of which were considered related.

CONCLUSION

No safety concerns were found during this surveillance study of IIV4 in subjects aged ≥ 6 months in Korea. The findings of this study suggest IIV4 is safe and well tolerated for use in all age groups with a vaccine indication.

Cost-effectiveness of high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine for older people in a country with high influenza vaccination rate

The highdose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVHD) has shown improved protection against influenza and its complications in older adults. We aimed to evaluate the costeffectiveness of QIVHD compared with QIVSD among Korean adults aged ≥ 65 years in reducing influenzarelated disease burden. We evaluated the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 seasons and their average values using a static decision tree model. The difference in efficacy between standard-dose (SD) and high-dose (HD) was calculated based on the results of a clinical trial comparing Fluzone® High-Dose Vaccine and Fluzone® Vaccine in older adults. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were assessed from the healthcare system perspective. A discount rate of 4.5% was applied to life-year-gained (LYG) values and utilities. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to account for both epidemiological and economic sources of uncertainty. In the analysis of the 2017/2018 season, the QIV-HD strategy generated an excess of 0.00182 life-years (Lys)/person and 0.003953 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)/person compared with QIV-SD. The ICER was 6,467.56 United States Dollars (USD)/QALY. In the analysis from the 2016/2017 season, QIV-HD caused a surplus of 0.00117 Lys/person and 0.003272 QALYs/person compared with QIV-SD. ICER was 7,902.46 USD /QALY. From the average data of the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 seasons, an excess of 0.00147 Lys/person and 0.003561 QALYs/person were generated using QIV-HD compared with QIV-SD, while the ICER was 7,190.44 USD /QALY. From the healthcare system perspective, QIV-HD was a more cost-effective vaccination option in reducing influenza-related disease burden and healthcare costs in Koreans aged ≥ 65 years compared with QIV-SD.

Symptomatic Differences between Influenza A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 in Korea

BACKGROUND

Limited understanding exists regarding clinical distinctions between influenza A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 subtypes, particularly in primary health care. We conducted a comparative analysis of symptomatic characteristics of influenza subtypes in Korea. This retrospective study analyzed medical records of patients who presented with positive test results for influenza-like illness (rapid influenza diagnostic test; RIDT) during the H3N2-dominant 2016-2017 and H1N1-dominant 2018-2019 seasons. Symptomatic manifestations, contact history, vaccination history, and clinical course were analyzed between the two seasons. The most frequent symptom in the RIDT-positive patients was fever (80.1% and 79.1%, respectively). The average body temperature was higher, and the number of patients with high fever was greater in the H3N2-dominant season than in the H1N1-dominant season (p < 0.001). Conversely, other symptoms, such as myalgia, cough, and sore throat, were significantly more common in the H1N1-dominant season than in the H3N2-dominant season (p < 0.001). Antiviral drugs were prescribed to most febrile RIDT-positive patients (82.2% and 81.3%, respectively, p = 0.516). Analyzing primary care data revealed different clinical manifestations according to the subtype. Therefore, physicians should consider these variable hallmarks and employ tailored therapeutic strategies to reduce the complication rate.

Research on Korean Translation in the Context of Epidemic Prevention and Control

An emergency like COVID-19 requires a theoretical framework for policy implementation that involves public and private sector collaborations. After policy failures, new institutions have formed that trigger PPP's later, allowing the incumbent administration to continue in office longer. It focuses on novel approaches to dealing with pandemics. The present administration put these rules in place to keep COVID-19 under control. When it comes to Real Time - polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, South Korea's government and corporations partnered to swiftly raise the quantity of testing in the country. Models of policy change are shown to be dynamic, cyclical, and recursive. During the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea, an empirical content research was conducted. Even though South Korea's leader was at risk of losing public support to the point where impeachment was mentioned as a possible option, he dramatically reversed public mood to win general elections by a wide margin in April 2020, while the pandemic scenario persisted. To win reelection, democratic administrations are under more pressure to effectively perform crisis management when faced with a crisis. As a result, they are under even more pressure to immediately mobilize public and private resources. The emergency use authorization (EUA) protocol for test kits is an example of "leapfrogging actors" – up-and-coming innovators – who helped turn a pandemic tragedy into a possibility for sustained leadership and for them. The results based on infected premises culling rate ratio is 82.3%, number of measles cases report is 86.4%, spread and epidemic ratio is 84.2%, important of epidemiology is 89.35%, transmission potential of COVID-19 is 91.24% and illustration of epidemic control is 92.45. The results based on infected premises culling rate ratio is 82.3%, number of measles cases report is 86.4%, spread and epidemic ratio is 84.2%, important of epidemiology is 89.35%, transmission potential of COVID-19 is 91.24% and illustration of epidemic control is 92.45.

Incidence, Severity, and Mortality of Influenza During 2010-2020 in Korea: A Nationwide Study Based on the Population-Based National Health Insurance Service Database

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of influenza is commonly used to understand and establish relevant health policies for emerging respiratory infections, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, Korea has no confirmed nationwide data on influenza incidence, severity, and mortality rate.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study to obtain epidemic data on influenza at the national level using National Health Insurance claims data during 2010 to 2020. Influenza cases were defined as 90-day timeframe episodes based on all inpatient and outpatient claims data with disease code J09, J10, and J11. Influenza incidence, severity, and mortality rate were calculated, and logistic regressions were performed to assess the associations of demographic characteristics and comorbidity with influenza-related hospitalization, severe illness, and death.

RESULTS

There were 0.4-5.9% influenza cases in the population from 2010 to 2020, with 9.7-18.9%, 0.2-0.9%, and 0.03-0.08% hospitalized, used in the intensive care unit, and dead, respectively. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 424.3-6847.4 and 0.2-1.9 per 100,000 population, respectively. While more than half of the influenza cases occurred in populations aged younger than 20 years, deaths in older than 60 years accounted for more than two-thirds of all deaths.

CONCLUSION

This study provided the simplest but most important statistics regarding Korean influenza epidemics as a reference. These can be used to understand and manage other new acute respiratory diseases, including COVID-19, and establish influenza-related policies.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the expansion of free vaccination policy on influenza vaccination coverage: An analysis of vaccination behavior in South Korea

BACKGROUND

Annual vaccination for influenza is globally recommended for some prioritized groups due to its high morbidity and mortality. Until 2019, South Korea has provided free influenza vaccination to children aged ≤12, adults aged ≥65, and pregnant women to enhance vaccination coverage. In 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic, free flu vaccination was temporarily broadened to adults aged 62-64 and children aged 13-18. We analyzed the trends in influenza vaccination coverages in South Korea and evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the expansion of the free vaccination policy on influenza vaccination coverage.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study with nationwide survey data from Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). We evaluated the trends in influenza vaccination coverages of target populations from 2010 to 2020. Influenza vaccination coverages of children aged 13-18, adults aged 62-64, and adults aged ≥65 were compared between 2019 and 2020.

RESULTS

In total, 72,443 individuals were analyzed. From 2019 to 2020, with the expansion of free influenza vaccination and the COVID-19 pandemic, the vaccination coverage of children aged 13-18 increased from 27.8% to 43.5% (P<0.001) but that of people aged 62-64 showed insignificant change from 57.4% to 51.5% (P = 0.266). Furthermore, the vaccination coverage in adults aged ≥65 declined from 87.2% to 79.1% (P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

In 2020, along with COVID-19 outbreaks, a decline of influenza vaccination coverage in older adults was observed regardless of free immunizations. It is likely due to behavioral changes to reduce the risk of COVID-19 transmission. This is supported by a greater reduction of influenza vaccination coverage in regions with higher COVID-19 outbreaks, as well as by South Korea's high medical accessibility and highly congested medical facilities. To sustain a high level of vaccination coverage of high-risk population during epidemics, additional efforts beyond free vaccination policies should be implemented.

Recent Increases in Influenza-Related Hospitalizations, Critical Care Resource Use, and In-Hospital Mortality: A 10-Year Population-Based Study in South Korea

Background: Long-term trends in influenza-related hospitalizations, critical care resource use, and hospital outcomes since the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic season have been rarely studied for adult populations. Materials and Methods: Adult patients from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service who were hospitalized with influenza over a 10-year period (2009−2019) were analyzed. The incidence rates of hospitalization, critical care resource use, and in-hospital death were calculated using mid-year population census data. Results: In total, 300,152 hospitalized patients with influenza were identified (men, 35.7%; admission to tertiary hospitals, 9.4%). Although the age-adjusted hospitalization rate initially decreased since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (52.61/100,000 population in 2009/2010), it began to increase again in 2013/2014 and reached a peak of 169.86/100,000 population in 2017/2018 (p < 0.001). The in-hospital mortality rate showed a similar increasing trend as the hospitalization, with a peak of 1.44/100,000 population in 2017/2018 (vs. 0.35/100,000 population in 2009/2010; p < 0.001). The high incidence rates of both hospitalization and in-hospital mortality were mainly attributable to patients aged ≥60 years. The rate of intensive care unit admission and the use of mechanical ventilation, continuous renal replacement therapy and vasopressors have also increased from the 2013/2014 season. The incidence of heart failure was the most frequent complication investigated, with a three-fold increase in the last two seasons since 2009/2010. In multivariate analysis adjusted for covariates, among hospitalized patients, type of hospitals and 2009 H1N1 pandemic season were associated with in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: We confirmed that the rates of hospitalization, critical care resource use, and in-hospital mortality by influenza have increased again in recent years. Therefore, strategies are needed to reduce infections and optimize resource use with a greater focus on older people.

The impact of free vaccination policies under the Korean Influenza National Immunization Program: Trends in influenza vaccination rates in South Korea from 2010 to 2019

Background

Annual vaccination for influenza is recommended for high-risk populations for its high morbidity and mortality. South Korea provides free influenza vaccination to some target groups under the National Immunization Program (NIP), and discrepantly high vaccination rates are observed in such populations. In this study, we analyzed the trends in influenza vaccination rates and evaluated the impact of the recent expansion of financial coverage to children ≤12 years and pregnant women.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study with nationwide survey data from Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). From 2010 to 2019, we evaluated the trends in influenza vaccination rates of the following four target groups: children ≤12 years, adults ≥65 years, pregnant women, and people with chronic diseases.

Results

In total, 80,861 individuals were analyzed. From 2017 to 2019, the vaccination coverage of children ≤12 years increased from 66.2% to 83.1%; pregnant women from 44.1% to 68.5% (comparing the mean of 2010–2017 and 2018–2019, P <0.001 for both). The elderly ≥65 years showed the highest rates (85.8% in 2019), while people with chronic diseases marked the lowest (41.9% in 2019). People with liver diseases showed the lowest vaccination rate of 27.8%, while that of other common diseases ranged between 31.7–44.1%.

Conclusion

The discrepancy between target groups corresponds to their financial coverage under NIP. The recent expansion of financial aids to children ≤12 years and pregnant women was followed by significant increases in vaccination rates in both groups. We suggest that free vaccination policy is one of the most effective strategies to enhance vaccination coverage, and we call for its expansion to other under-vaccinated target groups, especially people with chronic diseases.

Burden of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Hospitalizations, Vietnam, 2014-2016

Influenza burden estimates are essential to informing prevention and control policies. To complement recent influenza vaccine production capacity in Vietnam, we used acute respiratory infection (ARI) hospitalization data, severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance data, and provincial population data from 4 provinces representing Vietnam’s major regions during 2014–2016 to calculate provincial and national influenza-associated ARI and SARI hospitalization rates. We determined the proportion of ARI admissions meeting the World Health Organization SARI case definition through medical record review. The mean influenza-associated hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were 218 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 197–238) for ARI and 134 (95% UI 119–149) for SARI. Influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were highest among children <5 years of age (1,123; 95% UI 946–1,301) and adults >65 years of age (207; 95% UI 186–227), underscoring the need for prevention and control measures, such as vaccination, in these at-risk populations.

Development of influenza-associated disease burden pyramid in Shanghai, China, 2010-2017: a Bayesian modelling study

OBJECTIVES

Negative estimates can be produced when statistical modelling techniques are applied to estimate morbidity and mortality attributable to influenza. Based on the prior knowledge that influenza viruses are hazardous pathogens and have adverse health outcomes of respiratory and circulatory disease (R&C), we developed an improved model incorporating Bayes' theorem to estimate the disease burden of influenza in Shanghai, China, from 2010 to 2017.

DESIGN

A modelling study using aggregated data from administrative systems on weekly R&C mortality and hospitalisation, influenza surveillance and meteorological data. We constrained the regression coefficients for influenza activity to be positive by truncating the prior distributions at zero.

SETTING

Shanghai, China.

PARTICIPANTS

People registered with R&C deaths (450 298) and hospitalisations (2621 787, from 1 July 2013), and with influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient visits (342 149) between 4 January 2010 and 31 December 2017.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Influenza-associated disease burden (mortality, hospitalisation and outpatient visit rates) and clinical severity (outpatient-mortality, outpatient-hospitalisation and hospitalisation-mortality risks).

RESULTS

Influenza was associated with an annual average of 15.49 (95% credibility interval (CrI) 9.06-22.06) excess R&C deaths, 100.65 (95% CrI 48.79-156.78) excess R&C hospitalisations and 914.95 (95% CrI 798.51-1023.66) excess ILI outpatient visits per 100 000 population in Shanghai. 97.23% and 80.24% excess R&C deaths and hospitalisations occurred in people aged ≥65 years. More than half of excess morbidity and mortality were associated with influenza A(H3N2) virus, and its severities were 1.65-fold to 3.54-fold and 1.47-fold to 2.16-fold higher than that for influenza A(H1N1) and B viruses, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed Bayesian approach with reasonable prior information improved estimates of influenza-associated disease burden. Influenza A(H3N2) virus was generally associated with higher morbidity and mortality, and was relatively more severe compared with influenza A(H1N1) and B viruses. Targeted influenza prevention and control strategies for the elderly in Shanghai may substantially reduce the disease burden.

Association between oseltamivir use and neuropsychiatric adverse events in influenza patients: a nationwide population-based cohort study

Background: A potential risk of neuropsychiatric adverse events (NPAEs) of oseltamivir has remained controversial by retrospective cohort studies. This nationwide population-based cohort study aimed to assess the risk of NPAEs in influenza patients undergoing oseltamivir treatment (users) compared with a propensity score-matched cohort of patients not receiving oseltamivir (non-users). Research design and methods: Using the Korean National Health Service-Sample Cohort Database, patients diagnosed with incident influenza during 2003-2013 were divided into two cohorts: oseltamivir users and non-users. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for the 5-day treatment course with oseltamivir using Cox regression analysis. Results: The incidence rate of NPAEs during 5-day oseltamivir treatment was 0.0029 and 0.0023 in oseltamivir users and non-users, respectively. The risk of NPAEs was different according to age, with an increased risk in patients aged 10-19 years (aHR 2.69, 95% CI 1.05-6.93) and a decreased risk in patients aged 0-9 years (aHR 0.46, 95% CI 0.24-0.88). The non-significant positive associations were observed in patients aged 20-64 years and those aged greater than 65 years. Conclusions: Although the reason for the inverse association in children aged 0-9 years is unknown, oseltamivir could increase the risk of NPAEs for children or adolescents aged greater than 10 years.

Forecasting seasonal influenza-like illness in South Korea after 2 and 30 weeks using Google Trends and influenza data from Argentina

We aimed to identify variables for forecasting seasonal and short-term targets for influenza-like illness (ILI) in South Korea, and other input variables through weekly time-series of the variables. We also aimed to suggest prediction models for ILI activity using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, including exogenous variables (SARIMAX) models. We collected ILI, FluNet surveillance data, Google Trends (GT), weather, and air-pollution data from 2010 to 2019, applying cross-correlation analysis to identify the time lag between the two respective time-series. The relationship between ILI in South Korea and the input variables were evaluated with Linear regression models. To validate selected input variables, the autoregressive moving average, including exogenous variables (ARMAX) models were used to forecast seasonal ILI after 2 and 30 weeks with a three-year window for the training set used in the fixed rolling window analysis. Moreover, a final SARIMAX model was constructed. Influenza A virus activity peaks in South Korea were roughly divided between the 51st and the 7th week, while those of influenza B were divided between the 3rd and 14th week. GT showed the highest correlation coefficient with forecasts from a week ahead, and seasonal influenza outbreak patterns in Argentina showed a high correlation with those 30 weeks ahead in South Korea. The prediction models after 2 and 30 weeks using ARMAX models had R2 values of 0.789 and 0.621, respectively, indicating that reference models using only the previous seasonal ILI could be improved. The currently eligible input variables selected by the cross-correlation analysis helped propose short-term and long-term predictions for ILI in Korea. Our findings indicate that influenza surveillance in Argentina can help predict seasonal ILI patterns after 30 weeks in South Korea, and these can help the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention determine vaccine strategies for the next ILI season.

Clinician perceptions of respiratory infection risk; a rationale for research into mask use in routine practice

Outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases are global threats to society. Planning for, and responses to, such events must include healthcare and other measures based on current evidence. An important area of infection prevention and control (IPC) is the optimal use of personal protective equipment (PPE) by healthcare workers (HCWs), including masks for protection against respiratory pathogens. Appropriate mask use during routine care is a forerunner to best practice in the event of an outbreak. However, little is known about the influences on decisions and behaviours of HCWs with respect to protective mask use when providing routine care. In this paper we argue that there is a need for more research to provide a better understanding of the decision-making and risk-taking behaviours of HCWs in respect of their use of masks for infectious disease prevention. Our argument is based on the ongoing threat of emerging infectious diseases; a need to strengthen workforce capability, capacity and education; the financial costs of healthcare and outbreaks; and the importance of social responsibility and supportive legislation in planning for global security. Future research should examine HCWs' practices and constructs of risk to provide new information to inform policy and pandemic planning.

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Emerging and remerging infectious diseases continue to pose a threat to human health and global security.

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Outbreaks of respiratory infection result in human and economic costs including staff illness and wider societal disruption.

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Clinicians' use of personal protective equipment is critical to reducing the risk of transmission of infectious disease.

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Training in the use of PPE should take account of clinicians' and patients' perceptions of risk.

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Individual and societal responsibility towards infection prevention may influence clinicians' use of protective masks.

Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine strategies for the elderly in South Korea

OBJECTIVES

Despite a high vaccine uptake rate of over 80% in South Korea, the disease burden of influenza is still high among the elderly, which may be due to low effectiveness of vaccines. Therefore, the cost-effectiveness of use among the elderly was analyzed in order to compare the current trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) with a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) or MF59-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (ATIV).

METHODS

A static lifetime Markov model was used. It was assumed that the model would be repeated until individuals reached the age of 100. Cost-effectiveness was analyzed across three age groups (65-74 years, 75-84 years, and ≥85 years), and the at-risk group was studied.

RESULTS

Compared to the TIV, the QIV was expected to reduce the number of influenza infections by 342,873, complications by 17,011, hospitalizations by 8,568, and deaths by 2,031. The QIV was highly cost-effective when compared to the TIV, with a base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) estimated at USD 17,699/QALY (1USD = 1,151KRW), and the ICER decreased with age and was USD 3,431/QALY in the group aged 85 and above. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the ICER was sensitive to the QIV price, the proportion of influenza B, and vaccine mismatching. On the other hand, the ATIV was expected to reduce the number of influenza cases and complications by 1,812,395 and 89,747, respectively, annually, yielding cost-saving among all ages. ATIV price and vaccine efficacy were the most influential parameters for the ICER of ATIV.

CONCLUSIONS

The QIV and ATIV strategies were considered more cost-effective in comparison to the TIV for vaccination strategies implemented for the elderly. However, owing to a lack of data on the effectiveness of ATIV among the elderly, a large-scale effectiveness study is required.

The National Influenza Surveillance System of Korea

Influenza is a very important respiratory infectious disease that causes seasonal epidemics and pandemics. A well-organized surveillance system is necessary to monitor and respond effectively to the epidemiologic features of influenza. Korea currently operates a national influenza surveillance system based on the clinical sentinel surveillance system, laboratory sentinel surveillance system, and hospitalization and mortality surveillance system. However, there is a need for a better national surveillance system due to a demand for various pieces of information related to influenza. This article discusses the general aspects of influenza surveillance systems and the future direction of the national influenza surveillance system of Korea.

Effectiveness of influenza and pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines against influenza-related outcomes including pneumonia and acute exacerbation of cardiopulmonary diseases: Analysis by dominant viral subtype and vaccine matching

Background

Influenza and pneumonia are leading causes of morbidity and mortality among the elderly. Although vaccination is a main strategy to prevent these infectious diseases, concerns remain with respect to vaccine effectiveness.

Methods

During three influenza seasons (2014–2015, 2015–2016 and 2016–2017), we evaluated the effectiveness of the influenza and pneumococcal vaccines against pneumonia and acute exacerbation of cardiopulmonary diseases among the elderly aged ≥65 years with influenza-like illness (ILI). Demographic and clinical data were collected prospectively.

Results

Among 2,119 enrolled cases, 1,302 (61.4%) and 871 (41.1%) received the influenza vaccine and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23), respectively. During an A/H3N2-dominant season with poor influenza vaccine effectiveness (2014–2015 season), neither the influenza vaccine nor PPV23 showed significant effectiveness against pneumonia or acute exacerbation of cardiopulmonary diseases. During seasons with good influenza vaccine effectiveness (2015–2016 and 2016–2017 seasons), the influenza vaccine was effective in preventing pneumonia, but PPV23 was not. In particular, the influenza vaccine was effective in preventing acute exacerbation of heart diseases (75.0%) during the A/H1N1-dominant 2015–2016 season.

Conclusion

The influenza vaccine was effective in preventing pneumonia only during vaccine-matched seasons with good effectiveness against circulating influenza viruses. In addition, the influenza vaccine was cardio-protective during a vaccine-matched A/H1N1-dominant season.

Safety and Effectiveness of Peramivir in Korean Adult Influenza Patients: Prospective Observational Study Based on Post-Marketing Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

The safety and clinical effectiveness data of peramivir in the real clinical field are limited. A prospective observational study was conducted based on the post-marketing surveillance data to evaluate the post-marketing safety and effectiveness of peramivir in Korean adults with seasonal influenza.

METHODS

Among adults aged 20 years or older who were diagnosed with influenza A or B, patients who started peramivir within 48 hours from the initial symptoms of influenza were enrolled. All adverse events (AEs) that occurred within 7 days after administration of peramivir were checked. For the evaluation of effectiveness, changes in the severity of influenza symptoms and daily living performance were examined before and 7 days after the administration of peramivir. The date on which influenza related symptoms disappeared was checked.

RESULTS

A total of 3,024 patients were enrolled for safety evaluation and 2,939 patients were for effectiveness evaluation. In the safety evaluation, 42 AEs were observed in 35 (1.16%) patients. The most common AE was fever. AEs were mostly rated as mild in severity. Serious AEs were observed in 10 patients and two of them died. However, both deaths were considered to be less relevant to peramivir. In the effectiveness evaluation, the severity of influenza symptoms decreased by 10.68 ± 4.01 points and daily living performance was improved 5.59 ± 2.16 points. Influenza related symptoms disappeared on average 3.02 ± 2.39 days after peramivir administration.

CONCLUSION

Peramivir showed a tolerable safety profile and acceptable effectiveness in Korean adult patients with seasonal influenza.

Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology

Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Based on data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise.