Advancing the integration of spatial data to map human and natural drivers on coral reefs

Assessing spatiotemporal change in coral reef social-ecological systems

Coral reef resilience is eroding at multiple spatial scales globally, with broad implications for coastal communities, and is thus a critical challenge for managing marine social-ecological systems (SESs). Many researchers believe that external stressors will cause key coral reefs to die by the end of the 21st century, virtually eliminating essential ecological and societal benefits. Here, we propose the use of resilience-based approaches to understand the dynamics of coral reef SESs and subsequent drivers of coral reef decline. Previous research has demonstrated the effectiveness of these methods, not only for tracking environmental change, but also for providing warning in advance of transitions, possibly allowing time for management interventions. The flexibility and utility of these methods make them ideal for assessing complex systems; however, they have not been used to study aquatic ecosystem dynamics at the global scale. Here, we evaluate these methods for examining spatiotemporal change in coral reef SESs across the global seascape and assess the subsequent impacts on coral reef resilience. We found that while univariate indicators failed to provide clear signals, multivariate resilience-based approaches effectively captured coral reef SES dynamics, unveiling distinctive patterns of variation throughout the global coral reef seascape. Additionally, our findings highlight global spatiotemporal variation, indicating patterns of degraded resilience. This degradation was reflected regionally, particularly in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean SESs. These results underscore the utility of resilience-based approaches in assessing environmental change in SESs, detecting spatiotemporal variation at the global and regional scales, and facilitating more effective monitoring and management of coral reef SESs.

Evidence for managing herbivores for reef resilience

Herbivore management is an important tool for resilience-based approaches to coral reef conservation, and evidence-based science is needed to enact successful management. We synthesized data from multiple monitoring programs in Hawai'i to measure herbivore biomass and benthic condition over a 10-year period preceding any major coral bleaching. We analysed data from 20 242 transects alongside data on 27 biophysical and human drivers and found herbivore biomass was highly variable throughout Hawai'i, with high values in remote locations and the lowest values near population centres. Both human and biophysical drivers explained variation in herbivore biomass, and among the human drivers both fishing and land-based pollution had negative effects on biomass. We also found evidence that herbivore functional group biomass is strongly linked to benthic condition, and that benthic condition is sensitive to changes in herbivore biomass associated with fishing. We show that when herbivore biomass is below 80% of potential biomass, benthic condition is predicted to decline. We also show that a range of management actions, including area-specific fisheries regulations and gear restrictions, can increase parrotfish biomass. Together, these results provide lines of evidence to support managing herbivores as an effective strategy for maintaining or bolstering reef resilience in a changing climate.

Large floating abandoned, lost or discarded fishing gear (ALDFG) is frequent marine pollution in the Hawaiian Islands and Palmyra Atoll

Abandoned, lost, or discarded fishing gear (ALDFG) is a major source of marine debris with significant ecological and economic consequences. We documented the frequency, types, sizes, and impacts of ALDFG recovered from Hawai'i and Palmyra Atoll in the Central North Pacific Ocean (CNPO) from 2009 to 2021. A total of 253 events weighing 15 metric tons were recovered, including 120 drifting fish aggregating device (dFAD) components, 61 conglomerates, fewer distinct nets, lines, buoys, and unique gear. The Hawaiian Islands were dominated by conglomerates and Palmyra Atoll by dFADs. DFADs were connected to the Eastern Pacific tropical tuna purse seine fishery. Windward O'ahu experienced up to seven events or 1800 kg of ALDFG per month. Across Hawai', ALDFG was present on 55 % of survey days, including hotspots with 100 % occurrence. Coral reef damage, entangled wildlife, navigational and removal costs are reported. The data highlight the large magnitude of ALDFG and associated impacts in the CNPO.

Local human impacts disrupt depth-dependent zonation of tropical reef fish communities

The influence of depth and associated gradients in light, nutrients and plankton on the ecological organization of tropical reef communities was first described over six decades ago but remains untested across broad geographies. During this time humans have become the dominant driver of planetary change, requiring that we revisit historic ecological paradigms to ensure they capture the dynamics of contemporary ecological systems. Analysing >5,500 in-water reef fish surveys between 0 and 30 m depth on reef slopes of 35 islands across the Pacific, we assess whether a depth gradient consistently predicts variation in reef fish biomass. We reveal predictable ecological organization at unpopulated locations, with increased biomass of planktivores and piscivores and decreased primary consumer biomass with increasing depth. Bathymetric steepness also had a striking influence on biomass patterns, primarily for planktivores, emphasizing potential links between local hydrodynamics and the upslope propagation of pelagic subsidies to the shallows. However, signals of resource-driven change in fish biomass with depth were altered or lost for populated islands, probably due to depleted fish biomass baselines. While principles of depth zonation broadly held, our findings expose limitations of the paradigm for predicting ecological dynamics where human impacts confound connections between ecological communities and their surrounding environment.

Coral reefs benefit from reduced land-sea impacts under ocean warming

Coral reef ecosystems are being fundamentally restructured by local human impacts and climate-driven marine heatwaves that trigger mass coral bleaching and mortality1. Reducing local impacts can increase reef resistance to and recovery from bleaching2. However, resource managers lack clear advice on targeted actions that best support coral reefs under climate change3 and sector-based governance means most land- and sea-based management efforts remain siloed4. Here we combine surveys of reef change with a unique 20-year time series of land-sea human impacts that encompassed an unprecedented marine heatwave in Hawai'i. Reefs with increased herbivorous fish populations and reduced land-based impacts, such as wastewater pollution and urban runoff, had positive coral cover trajectories predisturbance. These reefs also experienced a modest reduction in coral mortality following severe heat stress compared to reefs with reduced fish populations and enhanced land-based impacts. Scenario modelling indicated that simultaneously reducing land-sea human impacts results in a three- to sixfold greater probability of a reef having high reef-builder cover four years postdisturbance than if either occurred in isolation. International efforts to protect 30% of Earth's land and ocean ecosystems by 2030 are underway5. Our results reveal that integrated land-sea management could help achieve coastal ocean conservation goals and provide coral reefs with the best opportunity to persist in our changing climate.

Fish assemblage structure, diversity and controls on reefs of South Kona, Hawai'i Island

The structure of coral-reef fish assemblages is affected by natural and anthropogenic factors such as the architectural complexity, benthic composition and physical characteristics of the habitat, fishing pressure and land-based input. The coral-reef ecosystem of South Kona, Hawai'i hosts diverse reef habitats with a relatively high live coral cover, but a limited number of studies have focused on the ecosystem or the fish assemblages. Here, we surveyed fish assemblages at 119 sites in South Kona in 2020 and 2021 and investigated the associations between the fish assemblages and environmental variables obtained from published Geographic Information System (GIS) layers, including depth, latitude, reef rugosity, housing density and benthic cover. The fish assemblages in South Kona were dominated by a relatively small number of widely occurring species. Multivariate analyses indicated that fish assemblage structure strongly correlated with depth, reefscape-level rugosity and sand cover individually, while the final parsimonious model included latitude, depth, housing density within 3-km of shore, chlorophyll-a concentration and sand cover. Univariate analysis revealed negative associations between housing density and fish species richness and abundance. Effects of environmental factors specific to fish trophic groups were also found. Reefscape-level rugosity had strong positive influences on the distributions of all herbivores (browsers, grazers and scrapers), while housing density had strong negative influences only on the abundance of browsers. Positive associations were also found between live coral cover and the presence of scrapers, as well as the abundance of corallivorous fish. This study intensively surveyed shallow coral reefs along the coastline of South Kona and was the most complete spatial survey on the reef fish assemblages to date. As it utilized GIS layers to assess large-scale patterns in the fish assemblages, future studies including in-situ environmental data may further reveal local-scale patterns and insights into factors affecting the structure of fish assemblages in Hawai'i.

Detection and impact of sewage pollution on South Kohala's coral reefs, Hawai'i

Sewage pollution from on-site sewage disposal systems and injection wells is impacting coral reefs worldwide. Our study documented the presence and impact of sewage on South Kohala's coral reefs, on Hawai'i Island, through benthic water quality and macroalgal sampling (fecal indicator bacteria, nutrients, δ¹⁵N macroalgal tissue), NO₃^- stable isotope mixing models, water motion measurements, and coral reef surveys. Sewage pollution was moderate on the offshore reef from benthic seeps, and water motion mixed and diluted it across the benthos. These conditions likely contribute to the dominance of turf algae cover, and the severity and prevalence of growth anomalies and algal overgrowth on corals. Use of multiple indicators and studying water motion was necessary to assess sewage pollution and identify environmental drivers associated with impaired coral health conditions. Methods used in this study can be utilized by natural resource managers to identify and reduce anthropogenic stressors to coral reefs.

Mapped coral mortality and refugia in an archipelago-scale marine heat wave

Corals are a major habitat-building life-form on tropical reefs that support a quarter of all species in the ocean and provide ecosystem services to millions of people. Marine heat waves continue to threaten and shape reef ecosystems by killing individual coral colonies and reducing their diversity. However, marine heat waves are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, and so too are the environmental and biological factors mediating coral resilience during and following thermal events. This combination results in highly variable outcomes at both the coral bleaching and mortality stages of every event. This, in turn, impedes the assessment of changing reef-scale patterns of thermal tolerance or places of resistance known as reef refugia. We developed a large-scale, high-resolution coral mortality monitoring capability based on airborne imaging spectroscopy and applied it to a major marine heat wave in the Hawaiian Islands. While water depth and thermal stress strongly mediated coral mortality, relative coral loss was also inversely correlated with preheat-wave coral cover, suggesting the existence of coral refugia. Subsequent mapping analyses indicated that potential reef refugia underwent up to 40% lower coral mortality compared with neighboring reefs, despite similar thermal stress. A combination of human and environmental factors, particularly coastal development and sedimentation levels, differentiated resilient reefs from other more vulnerable reefs. Our findings highlight the role that coral mortality mapping, rather than bleaching monitoring, can play for targeted conservation that protects more surviving corals in our changing climate.

Ciguatoxin in Hawai'i: Fisheries forecasting using geospatial and environmental analyses for the invasive Cephalopholis argus (Epinephelidae)

Invasive species can precede far-reaching environmental and economic consequences. In the Hawai'ian Archipelago Cephalopholis argus (family Serranidae) is an established invasive species, now recognized as the dominant local reef predator, negatively impacting the native ecosystem and local fishery. In this region, no official C. argus fishery exists, due to its association with Ciguatera seafood poisoning (CP); a severe intoxication in humans occurring after eating (primarily) fish contaminated with ciguatoxins (CTXs). Pre-harvest prediction of CP is currently not possible; partly due to the ubiquitous nature of the microalgae producing CTXs and the diverse bioaccumulation pathways of the toxins. This study investigated the perceived risk of CP in two geographically discrete regions (Leeward and Windward) around the main island of Hawai'i, guided by local fishers. C. argus was collected and investigated for CTXs using the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) CTX testing protocol (in vitro neuroblastoma N2a-assay and LC-MS/MS). Overall, 76% of fish (87/113) exceeded the FDA guidance value for CTX1B (0.01 ng g^-1 tissue equivalents); determined by the N2a-assay. Maximum CTX levels were ≅2× higher at the Leeward vs Windward location and, respectively, 95% (64/67) and 54% (25/46) of fish were positive for CTX-like activity. Fisher persons and environmental understandings, regarding the existence of a geographic predictor (Leeward vs Windward) for harvest, were found to be (mostly) accurate as CTXs were detected in both locations and the local designation of C. argus as a risk for CP was confirmed. This study provides additional evidence that supports the previous conclusions that this species is a severe CP risk in the coastal food web of Hawai'i, and that ocean exposure (wave power) may be a prominent factor influencing the CTX content in fish within a hyperendemic region for CP.

Spatial distribution and sources of nutrients at two coastal developments in South Kohala, Hawai'i

Nutrient sources to coastal waters with coral reefs are not well-characterized. This study documented spatial distributions of nutrients within coastal waters along two developments with coral reefs, and identified nutrient sources through nutrient mixing plots, δ¹⁵N measurements in macroalgal tissue, and NO₃^- stable isotope mixing models. Nutrients decreased from fresh groundwaters to offshore waters, with some surface waters higher in concentrations than benthic ones. Conservative and non-conservative mixing between fresh and ocean waters occurred, the latter suggestive of local nutrient sources and biological removal. δ¹⁵N in macroalgal tissue and NO₃^- concurred that fresh groundwater, ocean water, and fertilizers were dominant nutrient sources. Benthic salinity and NO₃^- + NO₂^- concentrations illustrated that submarine groundwater discharge delivered nutrients to reefs in pulses ranging from minutes to days. Information generated from this study is imperative for developing management actions to improve water quality and make coral reefs more resilient to stressors.

Global forest restoration opportunities to foster coral reef conservation

Sediment runoff from disturbed coastal catchments is a major threat to marine ecosystems. Understanding where sediments are produced and where they are delivered enables managers to design more effective strategies for improving water quality. A management strategy is targeted restoration of degraded terrestrial areas, as it provides opportunities to reduce land-based runoff from coastal areas and consequently foster coral reef conservation. To do this strategically, a systematic approach is needed to identify watersheds where restoration actions will provide the highest conservation benefits for coral reefs. Here, we develop a systematic approach for identifying global forest restoration opportunities that would also result in large decreases in the flux of sediments to coral reefs. We estimate how land-use change affects sediment runoff globally using high-resolution spatial data and determine the subsequent risk of sediment exposure on coral reefs using a diffusion-based ocean transport model. Our results reveal that sediment export is a major issue affecting 41% of coral reefs globally. The main coastal watersheds with the highest sediment export are predominantly located in Southeast Asian countries, with Indonesia and the Philippines accounting for 52% of the sediment export in coastal areas near coral reefs. We show how restoring forest across multiple watersheds could help to reduce sediment export to 63,000 km² of coral reefs. Although reforestation opportunities in areas that discharge onto coral reefs are relatively small across watersheds, it is possible to achieve large sediment reduction benefits by strategically targeting watersheds located in regions with a high density of corals near to the coast. Thus, reforestation benefits on coral reefs do not necessarily come from the watersheds that produce the highest sediment export. These analyses are key for generating informed action to support both international conservation policy and national restoration activities.

Ciguatera Mini Review: 21st Century Environmental Challenges and the Interdisciplinary Research Efforts Rising to Meet Them

Globally, the livelihoods of over a billion people are affected by changes to marine ecosystems, both structurally and systematically. Resources and ecosystem services, provided by the marine environment, contribute nutrition, income, and health benefits for communities. One threat to these securities is ciguatera poisoning; worldwide, the most commonly reported non-bacterial seafood-related illness. Ciguatera is caused by the consumption of (primarily) finfish contaminated with ciguatoxins, potent neurotoxins produced by benthic single-cell microalgae. When consumed, ciguatoxins are biotransformed and can bioaccumulate throughout the food-web via complex pathways. Ciguatera-derived food insecurity is particularly extreme for small island-nations, where fear of intoxication can lead to fishing restrictions by region, species, or size. Exacerbating these complexities are anthropogenic or natural changes occurring in global marine habitats, e.g., climate change, greenhouse-gas induced physical oceanic changes, overfishing, invasive species, and even the international seafood trade. Here we provide an overview of the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century regarding the many facets of ciguatera, including the complex nature of this illness, the biological/environmental factors affecting the causative organisms, their toxins, vectors, detection methods, human-health oriented responses, and ultimately an outlook towards the future. Ciguatera research efforts face many social and environmental challenges this century. However, several future-oriented goals are within reach, including digital solutions for seafood supply chains, identifying novel compounds and methods with the potential for advanced diagnostics, treatments, and prediction capabilities. The advances described herein provide confidence that the tools are now available to answer many of the remaining questions surrounding ciguatera and therefore protection measures can become more accurate and routine.

Impacts of pollution, fishing pressure, and reef rugosity on resource fish biomass in West Hawaii

Human activities and land-use drivers combine in complex ways to affect coral reef health and, in turn, the diversity and abundance of reef fauna. Here we examine the impacts of different marine protected area (MPA) types, and various human and habitat drivers, on resource fish functional groups (i.e., total fish, herbivore, grazer, scraper, and browser biomass) along the 180 km west coast of Hawaii Island. Across survey years from 2008 to 2018, we observed an overall decrease in total fish biomass of 45%, with similar decreases in biomass seen across most fish functional groups. MPAs that prohibited a combination of lay nets, aquarium collection, and spear fishing were most effective in maintaining and/or increasing fish biomass across all functional groups. We also found that pollution, fishing, and habitat drivers all contributed to changes in total fish biomass, where the most negative impact was nitrogen input from land-based sewage disposal. Fish biomass relationships with our study drivers depended on fish functional grouping. For surgeonfish (grazers), changes in biomass linked most strongly to changes in reef rugosity. For parrotfish (scrapers), biomass was better explained by changes in commercial catch where current commercial fishing levels are negatively affecting scraper populations. Our observations suggest that regional management of multiple factors, including habitat, pollution, and fisheries, will benefit resource fish biomass off Hawaii Island.

Large-scale mapping of live corals to guide reef conservation

Coral is the life-form that underpins the habitat of most tropical reef ecosystems, thereby supporting biological diversity throughout the marine realm. Coral reefs are undergoing rapid change from ocean warming and nearshore human activities, compromising a myriad of services provided to societies including coastal protection, fishing, and cultural practices. In the face of these challenges, large-scale operational mapping of live coral cover within and across reef ecosystems could provide more opportunities to address reef protection, resilience, and restoration at broad management- and policy-relevant scales. We developed an airborne mapping approach combining laser-guided imaging spectroscopy and deep learning models to quantify, at a large archipelago scale, the geographic distribution of live corals to 16-m water depth throughout the main Hawaiian islands. Airborne estimates of live coral cover were highly correlated with field-based estimates of live coral cover (R ² = 0.94). Our maps were used to assess the relative condition of reefs based on live coral, and to identify potential coral refugia in the face of human-driven stressors, including marine heat waves. Geospatial modeling revealed that water depth, wave power, and nearshore development accounted for the majority (>60%) of live coral cover variation, but other human-driven factors were also important. Mapped interisland and intraisland variation in live coral location improves our understanding of reef geography and its human impacts, thereby guiding environmental management for reef resiliency.

Biophysical and anthropogenic influences on the status of Tonga's coral reefs and reef fish fishery

Despite increasing threats to Tonga's coral reefs from stressors that are both local (e.g. overfishing and pollution) and global (e.g. climate change), there is yet to be a systematic assessment of the status of the country's coral reef ecosystem and reef fish fishery stocks. Here, we provide a national ecological assessment of Tonga's coral reefs and reef fish fishery using ecological survey data from 375 sites throughout Tonga's three main island groups (Ha'apai, Tongatapu and Vava'u), represented by seven key metrics of reef health and fish resource status. Boosted regression tree analysis was used to assess and describe the relative importance of 11 socio-environmental variables associated with these key metrics of reef condition. Mean live coral cover across Tonga was 18%, and showed a strong increase from north to south correlated with declining sea surface temperature, as well as with increasing distance from each provincial capital. Tongatapu, the southernmost island group, had 2.5 times greater coral cover than the northernmost group, Vava'u (24.9% and 10.4% respectively). Reef fish species richness and density were comparable throughout Tongatapu and the middle island group, Ha'apai (~35 species/transect and ~2500 fish/km2), but were significantly lower in Vava'u (~24 species/transect and ~1700 fish/km2). Spatial patterns in the reef fish assemblage were primarily influenced by habitat-associated variables (slope, structural complexity, and hard coral cover). The biomass of target reef fish was greatest in Ha'apai (~820 kg/ha) and lowest in Vava'u (~340 kg/ha), and was negatively associated with higher human influence and fishing activity. Overall mean reef fish biomass values suggest that Tonga's reef fish fishery can be classified as moderately to heavily exploited, with 64% of sites having less than 500 kg/ha. This study provides critical baseline ecological information for Tonga's coral reefs that will: (1) facilitate ongoing management and research; and (2) enable accurate reporting on conservation targets locally and internationally.

Case-control design identifies ecological drivers of endemic coral diseases

Endemic disease transmission is an important ecological process that is challenging to study because of low occurrence rates. Here, we investigate the ecological drivers of two coral diseases-growth anomalies and tissue loss-affecting five coral species. We first show that a statistical framework called the case-control study design, commonly used in epidemiology but rarely applied to ecology, provided high predictive accuracy (67-82%) and disease detection rates (60-83%) compared with a traditional statistical approach that yielded high accuracy (98-100%) but low disease detection rates (0-17%). Using this framework, we found evidence that 1) larger corals have higher disease risk; 2) shallow reefs with low herbivorous fish abundance, limited water motion, and located adjacent to watersheds with high fertilizer and pesticide runoff promote low levels of growth anomalies, a chronic coral disease; and 3) wave exposure, stream exposure, depth, and low thermal stress are associated with tissue loss disease risk during interepidemic periods. Variation in risk factors across host-disease pairs suggests that either different pathogens cause the same gross lesions in different species or that the same disease may arise in different species under different ecological conditions.

Parsing human and biophysical drivers of coral reef regimes

Coral reefs worldwide face unprecedented cumulative anthropogenic effects of interacting local human pressures, global climate change and distal social processes. Reefs are also bound by the natural biophysical environment within which they exist. In this context, a key challenge for effective management is understanding how anthropogenic and biophysical conditions interact to drive distinct coral reef configurations. Here, we use machine learning to conduct explanatory predictions on reef ecosystems defined by both fish and benthic communities. Drawing on the most spatially extensive dataset available across the Hawaiian archipelago—20 anthropogenic and biophysical predictors over 620 survey sites—we model the occurrence of four distinct reef regimes and provide a novel approach to quantify the relative influence of human and environmental variables in shaping reef ecosystems. Our findings highlight the nuances of what underpins different coral reef regimes, the overwhelming importance of biophysical predictors and how a reef's natural setting may either expand or narrow the opportunity space for management interventions. The methods developed through this study can help inform reef practitioners and hold promises for replication across a broad range of ecosystems.

Long-term dynamics and drivers of coral and macroalgal cover on inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park

Quantifying the role of biophysical and anthropogenic drivers of coral reef ecosystem processes can inform management strategies that aim to maintain or restore ecosystem structure and productivity. However, few studies have examined the combined effects of multiple drivers, partitioned their impacts, or established threshold values that may trigger shifts in benthic cover. Inshore fringing reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) occur in high-sediment, high-nutrient environments and are under increasing pressure from multiple acute and chronic stressors. Despite world-leading management, including networks of no-take marine reserves, relative declines in hard coral cover of 40-50% have occurred in recent years, with localized but persistent shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on some reefs. Here we use boosted regression tree analyses to test the relative importance of multiple biophysical drivers on coral and macroalgal cover using a long-term (12-18 yr) data set collected from reefs at four island groups. Coral and macroalgal cover were negatively correlated at all island groups, and particularly when macroalgal cover was above 20%. Although reefs at each island group had different disturbance-and-recovery histories, degree heating weeks (DHW) and routine wave exposure consistently emerged as common drivers of coral and macroalgal cover. In addition, different combinations of sea-surface temperature, nutrient and turbidity parameters, exposure to high turbidity (primary) floodwater, depth, grazing fish density, farming damselfish density, and management zoning variously contributed to changes in coral and macroalgal cover at each island group. Clear threshold values were apparent for multiple drivers including wave exposure, depth, and degree heating weeks for coral cover, and depth, degree heating weeks, chlorophyll a, and cyclone exposure for macroalgal cover, however, all threshold values were variable among island groups. Our findings demonstrate that inshore coral reef communities are typically structured by broadscale climatic perturbations, superimposed upon unique sets of local-scale drivers. Although rapidly escalating climate change impacts are the largest threat to coral reefs of the GBRMP and globally, our findings suggest that proactive management actions that effectively reduce chronic stressors at local scales should contribute to improved reef resistance and recovery potential following acute climatic disturbances.

Managing Local Stressors for Coral Reef Condition and Ecosystem Services Delivery Under Climate Scenarios

Coral reefs provide numerous ecosystem goods and services, but are threatened by multiple environmental and anthropogenic stressors. To identify management scenarios that will reverse or mitigate ecosystem degradation, managers can benefit from tools that can quantify projected changes in ecosystem services due to alternative management options. We used a spatially-explicit biophysical ecosystem model to evaluate socio-ecological trade-offs of land-based vs. marine-based management scenarios, and local-scale vs. global-scale stressors and their cumulative impacts. To increase the relevance of understanding ecological change for the public and decision-makers, we used four ecological production functions to translate the model outputs into the ecosystem services: "State of the Reef," "Trophic Integrity," "Fisheries Production," and "Fisheries Landings." For a case study of Maui Nui, Hawai'i, land-based management attenuated coral cover decline whereas fisheries management promoted higher total fish biomass. Placement of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) across 30% of coral reef areas led to a reversal of the historical decline in predatory fish biomass, although this outcome depended on the spatial arrangement of MPAs. Coral cover declined less severely under strict sediment mitigation scenarios. However, the benefits of these local management scenarios were largely lost when accounting for climate-related impacts. Climate-related stressors indirectly increased herbivore biomass due to the shift from corals to algae and, hence, greater food availability. The two ecosystem services related to fish biomass increased under climate-related stressors but "Trophic Integrity" of the reef declined, indicating a less resilient reef. "State of the Reef" improved most and "Trophic Integrity" declined least under an optimistic global warming scenario and strict local management. This work provides insight into the relative influence of land-based vs. marine-based management and local vs. global stressors as drivers of changes in ecosystem dynamics while quantifying the tradeoffs between conservation- and extraction-oriented ecosystem services.

The Moku System: Managing Biocultural Resources for Abundance within Social-Ecological Regions in Hawaiʻi

Through research, restoration of agro-ecological sites, and a renaissance of cultural awareness in Hawaiʻi, there has been a growing recognition of the ingenuity of the Hawaiian biocultural resource management system. The contemporary term for this system, “the ahupuaʻa system”, does not accurately convey the nuances of system function, and it inhibits an understanding about the complexity of the system’s management. We examined six aspects of the Hawaiian biocultural resource management system to understand its framework for systematic management. Based on a more holistic understanding of this system’s structure and function, we introduce the term, “the moku system”, to describe the Hawaiian biocultural resource management system, which divided large islands into social-ecological regions and further into interrelated social-ecological communities. This system had several social-ecological zones running horizontally across each region, which divided individual communities vertically while connecting them to adjacent communities horizontally; and, thus, created a mosaic that contained forested landscapes, cultural landscapes, and seascapes, which synergistically harnessed a diversity of ecosystem services to facilitate an abundance of biocultural resources. “The moku system”, is a term that is more conducive to large-scale biocultural restoration in the contemporary period, while being inclusive of the smaller-scale divisions that allowed for a highly functional system.

Environmental conditions and herbivore biomass determine coral reef benthic community composition: implications for quantitative baselines

Our ability to understand natural constraints on coral reef benthic communities requires quantitative assessment of the relative strengths of abiotic and biotic processes across large spatial scales. Here, we combine underwater images, visual censuses and remote sensing data for 1566 sites across 34 islands spanning the central-western Pacific Ocean, to empirically assess the relative roles of abiotic and grazing processes in determining the prevalence of calcifying organisms and fleshy algae on coral reefs. We used regression trees to identify the major predictors of benthic composition and to test whether anthropogenic stress at inhabited islands decouples natural relationships. We show that sea surface temperature, wave energy, oceanic productivity and aragonite saturation strongly influence benthic community composition; overlooking these factors may bias expectations of calcified reef states. Maintenance of grazing biomass above a relatively low threshold (~ 10-20 kg ha^-1) may also prevent transitions to algal-dominated states, providing a tangible management target for rebuilding overexploited herbivore populations. Biophysical relationships did not decouple at inhabited islands, indicating that abiotic influences remain important macroscale processes, even at chronically disturbed reefs. However, spatial autocorrelation among inhabited reefs was substantial and exceeded abiotic and grazing influences, suggesting that natural constraints on reef benthos were superseded by unmeasured anthropogenic impacts. Evidence of strong abiotic influences on reef benthic communities underscores their importance in specifying quantitative targets for coral reef management and restoration that are realistic within the context of local conditions.

Scenario planning with linked land-sea models inform where forest conservation actions will promote coral reef resilience

We developed a linked land-sea modeling framework based on remote sensing and empirical data, which couples sediment export and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution. This spatially-explicit (60 × 60 m) framework simultaneously tracks changes in multiple benthic and fish indicators as a function of land-use and climate change scenarios. We applied this framework in Kubulau District, Fiji, to investigate the effects of logging, agriculture expansion, and restoration on coral reef resilience. Under the deforestation scenario, models projected a 4.5-fold sediment increase (>7,000 t. yr-1) coupled with a significant decrease in benthic habitat quality across 1,940 ha and a reef fish biomass loss of 60.6 t. Under the restoration scenario, models projected a small (<30 t. yr-1) decrease in exported sediments, resulting in a significant increase in benthic habitat quality across 577 ha and a fish biomass gain of 5.7 t. The decrease in benthic habitat quality and loss of fish biomass were greater when combining climate change and deforestation scenarios. We evaluated where land-use change and bleaching scenarios would impact sediment runoff and downstream coral reefs to identify priority areas on land, where conservation or restoration could promote coral reef resilience in the face of climate change.

Seascape models reveal places to focus coastal fisheries management

To design effective marine reserves and support fisheries, more information on fishing patterns and impacts for targeted species is needed, as well as better understanding of their key habitats. However, fishing impacts vary geographically and are difficult to disentangle from other factors that influence targeted fish distributions. We developed a set of fishing effort and habitat layers at high resolution and employed machine learning techniques to create regional-scale seascape models and predictive maps of biomass and body length of targeted reef fishes for the main Hawaiian Islands. Spatial patterns of fishing effort were shown to be highly variable and seascape models indicated a low threshold beyond which targeted fish assemblages were severely impacted. Topographic complexity, exposure, depth, and wave power were identified as key habitat variables that influenced targeted fish distributions and defined productive habitats for reef fisheries. High targeted reef fish biomass and body length were found in areas not easily accessed by humans, while model predictions when fishing effort was set to zero showed these high values to be more widely dispersed among suitable habitats. By comparing current targeted fish distributions with those predicted when fishing effort was removed, areas with high recovery potential on each island were revealed, with average biomass recovery of 517% and mean body length increases of 59% on Oahu, the most heavily fished island. Spatial protection of these areas would aid recovery of nearshore coral reef fisheries.