Impact of prophylactic vaccination strategies on Ebola virus transmission: A modeling analysis

2022 Sudan Ebolavirus Outbreak in Uganda: Modelling Case Burden and Outbreak Duration

In September 2022, an outbreak of Sudan virus (SUDV) was confirmed in Uganda. Following the first case report, we developed an individual based modelling platform (IBM-SUDV) to estimate the burden of cases and deaths, as well as the duration of the unfolding SUDV outbreak, using different scenarios. Modelled projections were within the range of cases and deaths ultimately observed.

Healthcare Providers' and Frontline Workers' Experiences of an Ebola Vaccine Trial in the Boende Health District of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

This study explored the experiences of healthcare providers (HCPs) and frontline workers who were involved in an Ebola vaccine trial in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The researchers interviewed a total of 99 participants (HCPs and frontline workers) living and working in the Boende health district during the period of the study, from February to March 2022. These individuals included a mix of trial participants and non-trial participants (staff of the trial, local health authorities, and head nurses of health centers). In-depth individual interviews, as well as focus group discussions (FGDs), were used to understand interviewees' experiences and perceptions. The data were analyzed to identify the main themes. The findings unveiled a multitude of positive experiences among interviewees/FGD participants. The commitment of the trial investigators to improve the study site and to equip the volunteers with necessary skills and knowledge greatly contributed to a positive trial experience. However, some interviewees felt that the reimbursement for time and travel expenses during their trial visits was insufficient in comparison with their expectations. Additionally, there were expressions of worry about the frequency of blood draws during scheduled trial visits. Our findings emphasize the critical importance of addressing and continuously considering the perspectives and concerns of trial participants before designing and implementing vaccine trials. By actively incorporating their inputs, researchers can mitigate concerns and tailor communication strategies, potentially enhancing the overall success and impact of the vaccine trial.

A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach

Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have intermittently occurred since the first documented case in the 1970s. Due to its transmission characteristics, large outbreaks have not been observed outside Africa. However, within the continent, significant outbreaks have been attributed to factors such as endemic diseases with similar symptoms and inadequate medical infrastructure, which complicate timely diagnosis. In this study, we employed a stochastic modeling approach to analyze the spread of EVD during the early stages of an outbreak, with an emphasis on inherent risks. We developed a model that considers healthcare workers and unreported cases, and assessed the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) using actual data. Our results indicate that the implementation of NPIs led to a decrease in the transmission rate and infectious period by 30% and 40% respectively, following the declaration of the outbreak. We also investigated the risks associated with delayed outbreak recognition. Our simulations suggest that, when accounting for NPIs and recognition delays, prompt detection could have resulted in a similar outbreak scale, with approximately 50% of the baseline NPIs effect. Finally, we discussed the potential effects of a vaccination strategy as a follow-up measure after the outbreak declaration. Our findings suggest that a vaccination strategy can reduce both the burden of NPIs and the scale of the outbreak.

Safety and Immunogenicity of the Heterologous 2-Dose Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Vaccine Regimen in Health Care Providers and Frontliners of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

In response to recent Ebola epidemics, vaccine development against the Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) has been fast-tracked in the past decade. Health care providers and frontliners working in Ebola-endemic areas are at high risk of contracting and spreading the virus.

METHODS

This study assessed the safety and immunogenicity of the 2-dose heterologous Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen (administered at a 56-day interval) among 699 health care providers and frontliners taking part in a phase 2, monocentric, randomized vaccine trial in Boende, the Democratic Republic of Congo. The first participant was enrolled and vaccinated on 18 December 2019. Serious adverse events were collected up to 6 months after the last received dose. The EBOV glycoprotein FANG ELISA (Filovirus Animal Nonclinical Group enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) was used to measure the immunoglobulin G-binding antibody response to the EBOV glycoprotein.

RESULTS

The vaccine regimen was well tolerated with no vaccine-related serious adverse events reported. Twenty-one days after the second dose, an EBOV glycoprotein-specific binding antibody response was observed in 95.2% of participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2-dose vaccine regimen was well tolerated and led to a high antibody response among fully vaccinated health care providers and frontliners in Boende.

Low seroprevalence of Ebola virus in health care providers in an endemic region (Tshuapa province) of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

INTRODUCTION

A serosurvey among health care providers (HCPs) and frontliners of an area previously affected by Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was conducted to assess the seroreactivity to Ebola virus antigens.

METHODS

Serum samples were collected in a cohort of HCPs and frontliners (n = 698) participants in the EBL2007 vaccine trial (December 2019 to October 2022). Specimens seroreactive for EBOV were confirmed using either the Filovirus Animal Nonclinical Group (FANG) ELISA or a Luminex multiplex assay.

RESULTS

The seroreactivity to at least two EBOV-Mayinga (m) antigens was found in 10 (1.4%: 95% CI, 0.7-2.6) samples for GP-EBOV-m + VP40-EBOV-m, and 2 (0.3%: 95% CI, 0.0-1.0) samples for VP40-EBOV-m + NP-EBOV-m using the Luminex assay. Seroreactivity to GP-EBOV-Kikwit (k) was observed in 59 (8.5%: 95%CI, 6.5-10.9) samples using FANG ELISA.

CONCLUSION

In contrast to previous serosurveys, a low seroprevalence was found in the HCP and frontline population participating in the EBL2007 Ebola vaccine trial in Boende, DRC. This underscores the high need for standardized antibody assays and cutoffs in EBOV serosurveys to avoid the broad range of reported EBOV seroprevalence rates in EBOV endemic areas.

Ebola vaccine uptake and attitudes among healthcare workers in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2021

Introduction

During the 2018-2020 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), prevention and control measures, such as Ebola vaccination were challenging by community mistrust. We aimed to understand perceptions regarding Ebola vaccination and identify determinants of Ebola vaccine uptake among HCWs.

Methods

In March 2021, we conducted a cross-sectional survey among 438 HCWs from 100 randomly selected health facilities in three health zones (Butembo, Beni, Mabalako) affected by the 10th EVD outbreak in North Kivu, DRC. HCWs were eligible if they were ≥ 18 years and were working in a health facility during the outbreak. We used survey logistic regression to assess correlates of first-offer uptake (i.e., having received the vaccine the first time it was offered vs. after subsequent offers).

Results

Of the 438 HCWs enrolled in the study, 420 (95.8%) reported that they were eligible and offered an Ebola vaccine. Among those offered vaccination, self-reported uptake of the Ebola vaccine was 99.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) [98.5-99.4]), but first-offer uptake was 70.2% (95% CI [67.1, 73.5]). Nearly all HCWs (94.3%; 95% CI [92.7-95.5]) perceived themselves to be at risk of contracting EVD. The most common concern was that the vaccine would cause side effects (65.7%; 95% CI [61.4-69.7]). In the multivariable analysis, mistrust of the vaccine source or how the vaccine was produced decreased the odds of first-time uptake.

Discussion

Overall uptake of the Ebola vaccine was high among HCWs, but uptake at the first offer was substantially lower, which was associated with mistrust of the vaccine source. Future Ebola vaccination efforts should plan to make repeated vaccination offers to HCWs and address their underlying mistrust in the vaccines, which can, in turn, improve community uptake.

Targeted preventive vaccination campaigns to reduce Ebola outbreaks: An individual-based modeling study

INTRODUCTION

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) and ring vaccination (i.e., vaccination that primarily targets contacts and contacts of contacts of Ebola cases) are currently used to reduce the spread of Ebola during outbreaks. Because these measures are typically initiated after an outbreak is declared, they are limited by real-time implementation challenges. Preventive vaccination may provide a complementary option to help protect communities against unpredictable outbreaks. This study aimed to assess the impact of preventive vaccination strategies when implemented in conjunction with NPI and ring vaccination.

METHODS

A spatial-explicit, individual-based model (IBM) that accounts for heterogeneity of human contact, human movement, and timing of interventions was built to represent Ebola transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Simulated preventive vaccination strategies targeted healthcare workers (HCW), frontline workers (FW), and the general population (GP) with varying levels of coverage (lower coverage: 30% of HCW/FW, 5% of GP; higher coverage: 60% of HCW/FW, 10% of GP) and efficacy (lower efficacy: 60%; higher efficacy: 90%).

RESULTS

The IBM estimated that the addition of preventive vaccination for HCW reduced cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by ∼11 % to ∼25 % compared with NPI + ring vaccination alone. Including HCW and FW in the preventive vaccination campaign yielded ∼14 % to ∼38 % improvements in epidemic outcomes. Further including the GP yielded the greatest improvements, with ∼21 % to ∼52 % reductions in epidemic outcomes compared with NPI + ring vaccination alone. In a scenario without ring vaccination, preventive vaccination reduced cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by ∼28 % to ∼59 % compared with NPI alone. In all scenarios, preventive vaccination reduced Ebola transmission particularly during the initial phases of the epidemic, resulting in flatter epidemic curves.

CONCLUSIONS

The IBM showed that preventive vaccination may reduce Ebola cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, thus safeguarding the healthcare system and providing more time to implement additional interventions during an outbreak.

Non-human primate to human immunobridging demonstrates a protective effect of Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine against Ebola

Without clinical efficacy data, vaccine protective effect may be extrapolated from animals to humans using an immunologic marker that correlates with protection in animals. This immunobridging approach was used for the two-dose Ebola vaccine regimen Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo. Ebola virus (EBOV) glycoprotein binding antibody data obtained from 764 vaccinated healthy adults in five clinical studies (NCT02416453, NCT02564523, NCT02509494, NCT02543567, NCT02543268) were used to calculate mean predicted survival probability (with preplanned 95% confidence interval [CI]). We used a logistic regression model based on EBOV glycoprotein binding antibody responses in vaccinated non-human primates (NHPs) and NHP survival after EBOV challenge. While the protective effect of the vaccine regimen in humans can be inferred in this fashion, the extrapolated survival probability cannot be directly translated into vaccine efficacy. The primary immunobridging analysis evaluated the lower limit of the CI against predefined success criterion of 20% and passed with mean predicted survival probability of 53.4% (95% CI: 36.7-67.4).

Model-based evaluation of the impact of prophylactic vaccination applied to Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Democratic Republic of Congo

BACKGROUND

Protection by preventive Ebola vaccines has been demonstrated in clinical trials, but a complete picture of real-world effectiveness is lacking. Our previous study modeling the impact of preventively vaccinating healthcare workers (HCW) alone or with a proportion of the general population (GP) estimated significant reductions in incidence and mortality. The model assumed 100% vaccine efficacy, which is unlikely in the real world. We enhanced this model to account for lower vaccine efficacy and to factor in reduced infectiousness and lower case fatality rate in vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections.

METHODS

The previous model was enhanced to still permit a risk, although lower, for vaccinated individuals to become infected. The enhanced model, calibrated with data from epidemics in Sierra Leone (SL) and North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, helped evaluate the impact of preventive Ebola vaccination in different scenarios based on different vaccine efficacy rates (90% and 30% reductions in infection risk in the base and conservative scenarios, respectively; additionally, both scenarios with 50% reductions in infectiousness and mortality) and vaccination coverage among HCWs (30%, 90%) and GP (0%, 5%, and 10%).

RESULTS

The base scenario estimated that, depending upon the proportions of vaccinated HCWs and GP, 33-85% of cases and 34-87% of deaths during the 2014 SL epidemic and 42-89% of cases and 41-89% of deaths during the 2018 North Kivu epidemic would be averted versus no vaccination. Corresponding estimates for the conservative scenario were: 23-74% of cases and 23-77% of deaths averted during the SL epidemic and 31-80% of both cases and deaths averted during the North Kivu epidemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Preventive vaccination targeting HCW alone or with GP may significantly reduce the size and mortality of an EVD outbreak, even with modest efficacy and coverage. Vaccines may also confer additional benefits through reduced infectiousness and mortality in breakthrough cases.

Mathematical analysis for the effect of voluntary vaccination on the propagation of Corona virus pandemic

In this manuscript, a new nonlinear model for the rapidly spreading Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is developed. We incorporate an additional class of vaccinated humans which ascertains the impact of vaccination strategy for susceptible humans. A complete mathematical analysis of this model is conducted to predict the dynamics of Corona virus in the population. The analysis proves the effectiveness of vaccination strategy employed and helps public health services to control or to reduce the burden of corona virus pandemic. We first prove the existence and uniqueness and then boundedness and positivity of solutions. Threshold parameter for the vaccination model is computed analytically. Stability of the proposed model at fixed points is investigated analytically with the help of threshold parameter to examine epidemiological relevance of the pandemic. We apply LaSalle's invariance principle from the theory of Lyapunov function to prove the global stability of both the equilibria. Two well known numerical techniques namely Runge-Kutta method of order 4 (RK4), and the Non-Standard Finite Difference (NSFD) method are employed to solve the system of ODE's and to validate our obtained theoretical results. For different coverage levels of voluntary vaccination, we explored a complete quantitative analysis of the model. To draw our conclusions, the effect of proposed vaccination on threshold parameter is studied numerically. It is claimed that Corona virus disease could be eradicated faster if a human community selfishly adopts mandatory vaccination measures at various coverage levels with proper awareness. Finally, we have executed the joint variability of all classes to understand the effect of vaccination strategy on a disease dynamics.

Economic evaluation using dynamic transition modeling of ebola virus vaccination in lower-and-middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

With the increasing occurrence of infectious diseases in lower-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), emergency preparedness is essential for rapid response and mitigation. Economic evaluations of mitigation technologies and strategies have been recommended for inclusion in emergency preparedness plans. We aimed to perform an economic evaluation using dynamic transition modeling of ebola virus disease (EVD) vaccination in a hypothetical community of 1,000 persons in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

METHOD

Using a modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered, with Death added [SEIR-D]) model that accounted for death and epidemiological data from an EVD outbreak in the DRC, we modeled the transmission of EVD in a hypothetical population of 1,000. With our model, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of an EVD vaccine and an EVD vaccination intervention.

RESULTS

The results showed vaccinating 50% of the population at risk prevented 670 cases, 538 deaths, and 22,022 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The vaccine was found to be cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $95.63 per DALY averted. We also determined the minimum required vaccination coverage for cost-effectiveness to be 40%. Sensitivity analysis showed our model to be fairly robust, assuring relatively consistent results even with variations in such input parameters as cost of screening, as well as transmission, infection, incubation, and case fatality rates.

CONCLUSION

EVD vaccination in our hypothetical population was found to be cost-effective from the payer perspective. Our model presents an efficient and reliable approach for conducting economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions as part of an emergency preparedness plan.

A hybrid simulation model to study the impact of combined interventions on Ebola epidemic

Pandemics have been recognized as a serious global threat to humanity. To effectively prevent the spread and outbreak of the epidemic disease, theoretical models intended to depict the disease dynamics have served as the main tools to understand its underlying mechanisms and thus interrupt its transmission. Two commonly-used models are mean-field compartmental models and agent-based models (ABM). The former ones are analytically tractable for describing the dynamics of subpopulations by cannot explicitly consider the details of individual movements. The latter one is mainly used to the spread of epidemics at a microscopic level but have limited simulation scale for the randomness of the results. To overcome current limitations, a hierarchical hybrid modeling and simulation method, combining mean-field compartmental model and ABM, is proposed in this paper. Based on this method, we build a hybrid model, which takes both individual heterogeneity and the dynamics of sub-populations into account. The proposed model also investigates the impact of combined interventions (i. e. vaccination and pre-deployment training) for healthcare workers (HCWs) on the spread of disease. Taking the case of 2014-2015 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in Sierra Leone as an example, we examine its spreading mechanism and evaluate the effect of prevention by our parameterized and validated hybrid model. According to our simulation results, an optimal combination of pre-job training and vaccination deployment strategy has been identified. To conclude, our hybrid model helps informing the synergistic disease control strategies and the corresponding hierarchical hybrid modeling and simulation method can further be used to understand the individual dynamics during epidemic spreading in large scale population and help inform disease control strategies for different infectious disease.

A model and predictions for COVID-19 considering population behavior and vaccination

The effect of vaccination coupled with the behavioral response of the population is not well understood. Our model incorporates two important dynamically varying population behaviors: level of caution and sense of safety. Level of caution increases with infectious cases, while an increasing sense of safety with increased vaccination lowers precautions. Our model accurately reproduces the complete time history of COVID-19 infections for various regions of the United States. We propose a parameter [Formula: see text] as a direct measure of a population's caution against an infectious disease that can be obtained from the infectious cases. The model provides quantitative measures of highest disease transmission rate, effective transmission rate, and cautionary behavior. We predict future COVID-19 trends in the United States accounting for vaccine rollout and behavior. Although a high rate of vaccination is critical to quickly ending the pandemic, a return towards pre-pandemic social behavior due to increased sense of safety during vaccine deployment can cause an alarming surge in infections. Our results predict that at the current rate of vaccination, the new infection cases for COVID-19 in the United States will approach zero by August 2021. This model can be used for other regions and for future epidemics and pandemics.

Ebola virus disease: current vaccine solutions

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is an emerging zoonotic disease with intermittent outbreaks in Central and West African countries. The unpredictable high case fatality rate has made it a disease of public health concern. Different vaccine platforms have shown prophylactic protection in human and non-human primates, with the progress towards a licensed vaccine greatly accelerated in response to the devastating outbreak of EVD in West Africa from 2013-2016. Currently, two vaccines: Ervebo (rVSV-ZEBOV) and a two-dose combination of Zabdeno (Ad26.ZEBOV) and Mvabea (MVA-BN-Filo) have been licensed and in use. The licensing of an Ebola vaccine for use is challenging for several reasons, including the sporadic and limited nature of EVD outbreaks and the enormous resources needed to bring a vaccine to licensure. While vaccine solutions remain important in reducing the fatality of EVD, other strategic interventions are necessary for the prevention and control of EVD.