Environmental drivers of the spatiotemporal dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in the United States

Unseasonal respiratory syncytial virus epidemics during the COVID-19 pandemic: Relationship between climatic factors and epidemic strain switching

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemic patterns. However, the influence of climatic and virological factors on RSV outbreaks remains unclear. We examined RSV incidence in Okinawa, Japan; Taiwan, China; and Florida, USA before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the effects of population mobility and climate.

METHODS

We analysed correlations among RSV incidence, human mobility, and climate before and after the pandemic. Additionally, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of the second variable region of RSV G proteins using viral genomes isolated from patients with acute respiratory tract infections in Okinawa.

RESULTS

Annual RSV epidemics in Okinawa were not correlated with post-pandemic human mobility. The temperature and humidity ranges at the onset of RSV epidemics differed between the pre- and post-pandemic periods, with decreased standard deviations. Genetic analysis of RSV strains from 2020 to 2022 revealed a cluster with low genetic diversity, which differed markedly from pre-2019 and 2023 prevalent strains.

CONCLUSION

Reduced human migration led to an RSV epidemic caused by an indigenous endemic strain, highlighting the natural relationship between epidemics and climatic factors. These findings could aid in developing effective prediction and control programs for RSV epidemics and optimising vaccine programs.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen immune-escape: deriving a population-level phylodynamic curve

The phylodynamic curve (Grenfell et al. 2004 Science 303, 327-332 (doi:10.1126/science.1090727)) conceptualizes how immunity shapes the rate of viral adaptation in a non-monotonic fashion, through its opposing effects on viral abundance and the strength of selection. However, concrete and quantitative model realizations of this influential concept are rare. Here, we present an analytic, stochastic framework in which a population-scale phylodynamic curve emerges dynamically, allowing us to address questions regarding the risk and timing of the emergence of viral immune escape variants. We explore how pathogen- and population-specific parameters such as strength of immunity, transmissibility, seasonality and antigenic constraints affect the emergence risk. For pathogens exhibiting pronounced seasonality, we find that the timing of likely immune-escape variant emergence depends on the level of case importation between regions. Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, we probe the likely effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and the lifting thereof, on the risk of viral escape variant emergence. Looking ahead, the framework has the potential to become a useful tool for probing how natural immunity, as well as choices in vaccine design and distribution and the implementation of NPIs, affect the evolution of common viral pathogens.

The Role of Viral Interference in Shaping RSV Epidemics Following the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Disruptions in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity were observed in different countries following the 2009 influenza pandemic. Given the limited use of non-pharmaceutical interventions, these disruptions provide an opportunity to probe viral interference due to the out-of-season epidemics. The objectives of the study are twofold: to characterize atypical RSV activity in the United States (US) and to explore the mechanisms underlying changes in RSV epidemics following the pandemic.

METHODS

Laboratory-confirmed RSV cases across 10 US regions from June 2007 to July 2019 were analyzed. A dynamic time warping method was used to characterize RSV activity in different seasons. A two-pathogen model was constructed to explore viral interference mechanisms. A sampling-importance-resampling method was applied to estimate the effects of viral interference.

RESULTS

We found that RSV activity was reduced following the influenza pandemic in the 2009/10 season across all regions in the US. By contrast, we found an enhanced but delayed RSV epidemic across the US in the 2010/11 season. Using a mathematical model, we explored three potential viral interference mechanisms that could explain the change of RSV activity following the pandemic. The pandemic influenza may interfere with RSV to reduce susceptibility to RSV coinfection, or shorten the RSV infectious period, or decrease RSV infectivity in co-infections.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides statistical evidence for atypical RSV seasons following the influenza pandemic in the US and sheds light on viral interference mechanisms affecting RSV epidemics, offering a model-fitting framework for analyzing surveillance data at the population level.

Pediatric antibiotic use associated with respiratory syncytial virus and influenza in the United States, 2008-2018

Background

Understanding of the contributions of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza infections to pediatric antibiotic use is limited. We aimed to estimate the proportions and incidence of outpatient antibiotic prescriptions associated with RSV and influenza infections in a sample of commercially-insured US children.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study of outpatient antibiotic prescriptions dispensed to children in the Optum Clinformatics™ DataMart from 2008-2018. We used negative binomial time-series models regressing weekly antibiotic prescriptions against RSV and influenza circulation measures to estimate counterfactual rates of antibiotic prescriptions in the presence and absence of RSV and influenza circulation overall, by age group, census division, and antibiotic class. We considered both syndromic (medical claims) and laboratory (National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System) RSV and influenza measures and controlled for age, division, 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction, and seasonal and secular trends.

Results

An estimated 6.3% (95% confidence interval 5.2-7.3%) and 3.4% (3.1-3.8%) of antibiotic prescriptions were associated with RSV and influenza, respectively. These estimates translate to 72.6 (59.7-85.9) RSV-associated and 40.0 (35.1-45.1) influenza-associated antibiotic prescriptions per 1000 children annually. RSV-associated antibiotic prescription incidence was highest among children aged ≤5 years while influenza-associated antibiotic prescriptions were highest among children >5 years. Macrolides were the antibiotic class for which RSV and influenza accounted for the greatest share of prescribing.

Conclusions

RSV and influenza account for meaningful proportions of pediatric antibiotic prescriptions. Measures to prevent RSV and influenza infections in children, including immunization, may reduce antibiotic use and aid in mitigating antibiotic resistance.

Interplay between climate, childhood mixing, and population-level susceptibility explains a sudden shift in RSV seasonality in Japan

Titrating the relative importance of endogenous and exogenous drivers for dynamical transitions in host-pathogen systems remains an important research frontier towards predicting future outbreaks and making public health decisions. In Japan, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a major childhood respiratory pathogen, displayed a sudden, dramatic shift in outbreak seasonality (from winter to fall) in 2016. This shift was not observed in any other countries. We use mathematical models to identify processes that could lead to this outcome. In line with previous analyses, we identify a robust quadratic relationship between mean specific humidity and transmission, with minimum transmission occurring at intermediate humidity. This drives semiannual patterns of seasonal transmission rates that peak in summer and winter. Under this transmission regime, a subtle increase in population-level susceptibility can cause a sudden shift in seasonality, where the degree of shift is primarily determined by the interval between the two peaks of seasonal transmission rate. We hypothesize that an increase in children attending childcare facilities may have contributed to the increase in susceptibility through increased contact rates with susceptible hosts. Our analysis underscores the power of studying infectious disease dynamics to titrate the roles of underlying drivers of dynamical transitions in ecology.

Global meta-analysis of short-term associations between ambient temperature and pathogen-specific respiratory infections, 2004 to 2023

BackgroundAmbient temperature may affect respiratory health, while the temperature sensitivity of respiratory infections may be pathogen-dependent.AimsWe sought to explore pathogen-specific associations between ambient temperature and respiratory infections.MethodsWe searched nine databases for a random-effects meta-analysis to pool the relative risk (RR) of respiratory infection by pathogen per 1° C temperature rise, compared to populations unexposed to the same temperature. We conducted pathogen-specific analyses, sensitivity analyses, subgroup analyses and meta-regression.ResultsA total of 137 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The pooled and single-study estimates revealed that the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RR = 0.14; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.09-0.23), influenza virus (IV) (RR = 0.40; 95% CI: 0.27-0.61), human metapneumovirus (RR = 0.48; 95% CI: 0.32-0.73), human coronavirus (HCoV) (RR = 0.21; 95% CI: 0.07-0.61) and SARS-CoV-2 (RR = 0.52; 95% CI: 0.35-0.78) decreased per 1° C temperature rise, while that of human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) (RR = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.46-3.77), human bocavirus (HBoV) (RR = 1.86; 95% CI: 1.04-3.32) and MERS-CoV (RR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.04-1.07) increased. The risk of infection was lower for IVA, IVB, HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43, while HPIV-3, and HBoV-1 were at increased risk. The risk of Streptococcus pyogenes pharyngitis (RR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.30-0.69) decreased per 1° C temperature rise, while Pseudomonas aeruginosa (RR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.03-1.05) and Legionella pneumophila infections (RR = 2.69; 95% CI: 1.11-6.53) increased.ConclusionsTemperature sensitivity of respiratory infections can vary with the specific pathogen type and subtype that causes the infection. As the climatic conditions will become warmer, public health policy makers should act to develop pathogen adaptation strategies.

The role of viral interference in shaping RSV epidemics following the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

Background

Disruptions in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity were observed in different countries following the 2009 influenza pandemic. Given the limited use of non-pharmaceutical interventions, these disruptions do provide an opportunity to probe viral interference due to the out-of-season epidemics. The objectives of the study are twofold: to characterize atypical RSV activity in the United States (US) and to explore the mechanisms underlying changes in RSV epidemics following the pandemic.

Methods

Laboratory-confirmed RSV cases across 10 US regions from June 2007 to July 2019 were analyzed. A dynamic time warping method was used to characterize RSV activity in different seasons. A two-pathogen model was constructed to explore viral interference mechanisms. A sampling-importance resampling method was applied to estimate the effects of viral interference.

Results

We found that RSV activity was reduced following the influenza pandemic in the 2009/10 season across all regions in the US. By contrast, we found an enhanced but delayed RSV epidemic across the US in the 2010/11 season. Using a mathematical model, we identified three potential viral interference mechanisms that could explain the change of RSV activity following the pandemic. The pandemic influenza may interfere with RSV to reduce susceptibility to RSV coinfection, or shorten the RSV infectious period, or decrease RSV infectivity in co-infections.

Conclusions

This study provides statistical evidence for atypical RSV seasons following the influenza pandemic in the US and sheds light on viral interference mechanisms affecting RSV epidemics, offering a model-fitting framework for analyzing surveillance data at the population level.

Understanding the local-level variations in seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus infection: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

While previous reports characterised global and regional variations in RSV seasonality, less is known about local variations in RSV seasonal characteristics. This study aimed to understand the local-level variations in RSV seasonality and to explore the role of geographical, meteorological, and socio-demographic factors in explaining these variations.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review to identify published studies reporting data on local-level RSV season onset, offset, or duration for at least two local sites. In addition, we included three datasets of RSV activity from Japan, Spain, and Scotland with available site-specific data. RSV season onset, offset, and duration were defined using the annual cumulative proportion method. We estimated between-site variations within a region using the earliest onset, the earliest offset, and the shortest duration of RSV season of that region as the references and synthesised the variations across regions by a multi-level mixed-effects meta-analysis. Using the three datasets from Japan, Spain and Scotland, we applied linear regression models with clustered standard errors to explore the association of geographical, meteorological, and socio-demographic factors with the season onset and offset, respectively.

RESULTS

We included 7 published studies identified from the systematic literature search. With the additional 3 datasets, these data sources covered 888,447 RSV-positive cases from 101 local study sites during 1995 to 2020. Local-level variations in RSV season within a region were estimated to be 6 weeks (41 days, 95% CI: 25-57) for season onset, 5 weeks (32 days, 13-50) for season offset, and 6 weeks (40 days, 20-59) for season duration, with substantial differences across years. Multiple factors, such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, annual household income, population size, latitude, and longitude, could jointly explain 66% to 84% and 35% to 49% of the variations in season onset and offset, respectively, although their individual effects varied by individual regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Local-level variations in RSV season onset could be as much as 6 weeks, which could be influenced by meteorological, geographical, and socio-demographic factors. The reported variations in this study could have important implications for local-level healthcare resources planning and immunisation strategy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42023482432.

Exploring RSV transmission patterns in different age groups in the United States

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are a significant public health concern for pediatric populations and older adults, with seasonal winter outbreaks in the United States (US). Little is known about the timing of RSV epidemics across age groups and the relative contribution of within-group and between-group transmission of RSV in each age group. The lack of understanding of age-specific RSV transmission patterns limits our ability to inform vaccination policies. In this study, we examine the timing and transmission patterns of RSV epidemics across different age groups in 12 US states from 2018 to 2024. We found that infants under 1 year and young children aged 1-4 years experienced the earliest epidemic timing, while the elderly group had the latest. Using a semi-mechanistic age-structured spatiotemporal model, we further showed that between-group transmission greatly contributes (>50%) to the burden of RSV hospitalizations for children under 1, school-age children aged 5-17, and adults aged 18-64. By contrast, incidence in the elderly group (above 65 years) was primarily driven by transmission within the age group. Our findings indicate that distinct age groups play unique roles in propagating RSV epidemics in the US, with age-specific transmission patterns that can guide more effective RSV vaccination policies.

Exploring the epidemiological burden of RSV pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic: A Jordanian tertiary hospital experience

OBJECTIVES

To describe changes in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemiology, its associated clinical outcomes and predictors of severe acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRTI) pre- and post-COVID-19.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort, we analysed data from electronic medical record of children <5 years who were hospitalized at Jordan University Hospital with RSV-associated ALRTI from 2018 to 2022.

RESULTS

325 inpatients with respiratory infections were included. Rate of RSV infections decreased from 74% pre-pandemic to 30% post-pandemic. Patients diagnosed with ALRTI post-COVID had significantly higher SpO2, less chronic disease, lower temperature and respiratory rate at admission and fewer days in hospital compared with those diagnosed pre-COVID. Furthermore, patients diagnosed pre-pandemic were significantly more likely to have abnormal X-rays, used more antibiotics and antivirals, and had higher rates of severe disease than those with infection post-COVID.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 and its associated social restriction measures led to changes in RSV epidemiology, characterized by a decline in rates and clinical severity in the post-pandemic period. However, further studies are needed to characterize the impact of COVID-19 on subsequent RSV seasons.

Identifying climatic drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonality in Antananarivo, Madagascar, 2011-2021: a sentinel surveillance study

Introduction

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a primary source of acute lower respiratory tract infection, the leading cause of death in children under 5. Over 99% of RSV-attributed deaths occur in low-income countries, including Madagascar. RSV transmission is linked to climate, driving highly seasonal dynamics.

Methods

We used generalised additive models (GAMs) to identify correlates of reported RSV infections in Antananarivo, Madagascar, from January 2011 to December 2021, then fit catalytic models to cumulative age-structured incidence to estimate age-specific force of infection (FOI). We fit a time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model to the dataset to estimate weekly RSV transmission, then evaluated associations with precipitation, humidity and temperature using generalised linear models. We used GAMs to quantify interannual trends in climate and assess whether significant deviations in RSV burden occurred in years representing climatic anomalies.

Results

Reported RSV infections in Antananarivo were significantly associated with patients aged ≤2 years. Highest FOI was estimated in patients aged ≤1 year, with transmission declining to near-zero by age 5 before rising in older (60+) cohorts. TSIR models estimated a January to February peak in RSV transmission, which was strongly positively associated with precipitation and more weakly with temperature but negatively related to relative humidity. Precipitation, humidity and temperature all increased across the study period in Antananarivo, while reported RSV infections remained stable. Significant deviations in RSV burden were not associated with clear climate anomalies.

Conclusions

Stable rates of reported RSV infections in Antananarivo across the past decade may reflect contrasting impacts of elevated precipitation and increased humidity on transmission. If future climate changes yield more rapidly accelerating precipitation than humidity, this could accelerate RSV burden. Introduction of recently developed public health interventions to combat RSV in low-income settings like Madagascar is essential to mitigating disease burden, in particular to combat any future climate-driven increases in transmission or severity.

Characterizing the interactions between influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses and their implications for epidemic control

Pathogen-pathogen interactions represent a critical but little-understood feature of infectious disease dynamics. In particular, experimental evidence suggests that influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) compete with each other, such that infection with one confers temporary protection against the other. However, such interactions are challenging to study using common epidemiologic methods. Here, we use a mathematical modeling approach, in conjunction with detailed surveillance data from Hong Kong and Canada, to infer the strength and duration of the interaction between influenza and RSV. Based on our estimates, we further utilize our model to evaluate the potential conflicting effects of live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIV) on RSV burden. We find evidence of a moderate to strong, negative, bidirectional interaction, such that infection with either virus yields 40-100% protection against infection with the other for one to five months. Assuming that LAIV reduces RSV susceptibility in a similar manner, we predict that the impact of such a vaccine at the population level would likely depend greatly on underlying viral circulation patterns. More broadly, we highlight the utility of mathematical models as a tool to characterize pathogen-pathogen interactions.

Effect of nirsevimab on hospitalisations for respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis in France, 2023-24: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of hospitalisations and deaths among infants worldwide. France was one of the first countries to implement a national programme (beginning on Sept 15, 2023) for administration of nirsevimab, a single-dose long-acting monoclonal antibody treatment, to infants born on or after Feb 6, 2023, to prevent lower respiratory tract infection caused by RSV. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of nirsevimab and the number of hospitalisations averted in children younger than 24 months in real-world settings.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed an age-structured deterministic model characterising RSV transmission as well as plausible scenarios for the administration of nirsevimab doses based on maternity ward and community pharmacy supply data. We retrospectively estimated nirsevimab effectiveness in infants younger than 24 months during the 2023-24 RSV season in France (excluding overseas territories) and the number of averted hospitalisations for RSV bronchiolitis occurring after emergency department visits, by calibrating the model to hospital and virological surveillance data from Aug 21, 2017, to Feb 4, 2024, alongside serological data from a previous cross-sectional study. To assess the robustness of our estimates, we conducted sensitivity analyses in which we modified our assumptions about the number of doses administered, the reconstruction of the number of RSV-associated hospitalisations for bronchiolitis, the duration of maternal and post-infection immunity to RSV, and the number of contacts in children aged 0-2 months.

FINDINGS

We estimated that nirsevimab administration prevented 5800 (95% credible interval 3700-7800) RSV-associated hospitalisations for bronchiolitis after emergency department visits among children younger than 24 months, including 4200 (2900-5600) hospitalisations among those aged 0-2 months, between Sept 15, 2023 (the date nirsevimab was introduced), and Feb 4, 2024-a 23% (16-30) reduction in the total number of hospitalisations and a 35% (25-44) reduction in the 0-2 months age group, compared with the scenario without administration. In our baseline scenario, in which we estimated that 215 000 doses of nirsevimab were administered by Jan 31, 2024, the estimated effectiveness against RSV-associated hospitalisations for bronchiolitis was 73% (61-84), corresponding to one hospitalisation averted for every 39 (26-54) doses administered. In sensitivity analyses, nirsevimab remained effective against RSV-associated hospitalisations for bronchiolitis after emergency department attendance.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show that nirsevimab administration campaigns could effectively reduce the RSV-related hospital burden of bronchiolitis in children younger than 24 months.

FUNDING

European Commission, Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases programme, and INCEPTION project.

Unraveling the Role of Viral Interference in Disrupting Biennial RSV Epidemics in Northern Stockholm

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) primarily impacts infants and older adults, with seasonal winter outbreaks in temperate countries. Biennial cycles of RSV activity have also been identified in Northern Europe and some states in the United States. Delayed RSV activity was reported worldwide during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and a disrupted biennial pattern of RSV activity was observed in northern Stockholm following the pandemic. Biennial patterns shifted to early/large outbreaks in even-numbered years and late/small outbreaks in odd-numbered years. However, the mechanisms underpinning this change in pattern remain unknown. In this work, we constructed an age-stratified mechanistic model to explicitly test three factors that could lead to the change in RSV transmission dynamics: 1) birth rates, 2) temperatures, and 3) viral interference. By fitting the model to weekly RSV admission data over a 20-year period and comparing different models, we found that viral interference from influenza was the only mechanism that explained the shifted biennial pattern. Our work demonstrates the complex interplay between different respiratory viruses, providing evidence that supports the presence of interactions between the H1N1 pandemic influenza virus and RSV at the population level, with implications for future public health interventions.

Spatial and temporal variation in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) subtype RNA in wastewater and relation to clinical specimens

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a large burden of respiratory illness globally. It has two subtypes, RSV A and RSV B, but little is known regarding the predominance of these subtypes during different seasons and their impact on morbidity and mortality. Using molecular methods, we quantified RSV A and RSV B RNA in wastewater solids across multiple seasons and metropolitan areas to gain insight into the predominance of RSV subtypes. We determined the predominant subtype for each group using the proportion of RSV A to total RSV (RSV A + RSV B) in each wastewater sample (PA,WW) and conducted a comparative analysis temporally, spatially, and against clinical specimens. A median PA,WW of 0.00 in the first season and 0.58 in the second season indicated a temporal shift in the predominant subtype. Spatially, while we observed dominance of the same subtype, PA,WW was higher in some areas (PA,WW = 0.58-0.88). The same subtype predominated in wastewater and clinical samples, but clinical samples showed higher levels of RSV A (RSV A positivity in clinical samples = 0.79, median PA,WW = 0.58). These results suggest that wastewater, alongside clinical data, holds promise for enhanced subtype surveillance.IMPORTANCERespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a large burden of respiratory illness globally. It has two subtypes, RSV A and RSV B, but little is known regarding the predominance of these subtypes during different seasons and their impact on morbidity and mortality. The study illustrates that information on subtype predominance can be gleaned from wastewater. As a biological composite sample from the entire contributing population, wastewater monitoring of RSV A and B can complement clinical surveillance of RSV.

Variability in the Timing of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Epidemics in Guatemala, 2008-2018

BACKGROUND

The description of local seasonality patterns in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) incidence is important to guide the timing of administration of RSV immunization products.

METHODS

We characterized RSV seasonality in Guatemala using the moving epidemic method (MEM) with absolute counts of RSV-associated acute respiratory infections (ARI) from hospital surveillance in Santa Rosa and Quetzaltenango departments of Guatemala.

RESULTS

From Week 17 of 2008 through Week 16 of 2018, 8487 ARI cases tested positive for RSV by rRT-PCR. Season onsets varied up to 5 months; early seasons starting in late May to early August and finishing in September to November were most common, but late seasons starting in October to November and finishing in March to April were also observed. Both epidemic patterns had similar durations ranging from 4 to 6 months. Epidemic thresholds (the levels of virus activity that signal the onset and end of a seasonal epidemic) calculated prospectively using previous seasons' data captured between 70% and 99% of annual RSV detections. Onset weeks differed by 2-10 weeks, and offset weeks differed by 2-16 weeks between the two surveillance sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Variability in the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics in Guatemala demonstrates the difficulty in precisely predicting the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics based on onset weeks from past seasons and suggests that maximal reduction in RSV disease burden would be achieved through year-round vaccination and immunoprophylaxis administration to at-risk infants.

Global patterns of rebound to normal RSV dynamics following COVID-19 suppression

BACKGROUND

Annual epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) had consistent timing and intensity between seasons prior to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (COVID-19). However, starting in April 2020, RSV seasonal activity declined due to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) before re-emerging after relaxation of NPIs. We described the unusual patterns of RSV epidemics that occurred in multiple subsequent waves following COVID-19 in different countries and explored factors associated with these patterns.

METHODS

Weekly cases of RSV from twenty-eight countries were obtained from the World Health Organisation and combined with data on country-level characteristics and the stringency of the COVID-19 response. Dynamic time warping and regression were used to cluster time series patterns and describe epidemic characteristics before and after COVID-19 pandemic, and identify related factors.

RESULTS

While the first wave of RSV epidemics following pandemic suppression exhibited unusual patterns, the second and third waves more closely resembled typical RSV patterns in many countries. Post-pandemic RSV patterns differed in their intensity and/or timing, with several broad patterns across the countries. The onset and peak timings of the first and second waves of RSV epidemics following COVID-19 suppression were earlier in the Southern than Northern Hemisphere. The second wave of RSV epidemics was also earlier with higher population density, and delayed if the intensity of the first wave was higher. More stringent NPIs were associated with lower RSV growth rate and intensity and a shorter gap between the first and second waves.

CONCLUSION

Patterns of RSV activity have largely returned to normal following successive waves in the post-pandemic era. Onset and peak timings of future epidemics following disruption of normal RSV dynamics need close monitoring to inform the delivery of preventive and control measures.

Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years

Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.

Spatiotemporal Trends in Group A Streptococcal Pharyngitis in the United States

BACKGROUND

Group A Streptococcus (GAS) causes an estimated 5.2 million outpatient visits for pharyngitis annually in the United States, with incidence peaking in winter, but the annual spatiotemporal pattern of GAS pharyngitis across the United States is poorly characterized.

METHODS

We used outpatient claims data from individuals with private medical insurance between 2010 and 2018 to quantify GAS pharyngitis visit rates across U.S. census regions, subregions, and states. We evaluated seasonal and age-based patterns of geographic spread and the association between school start dates and the summertime upward inflection in GAS visits.

RESULTS

The South had the most visits per person (yearly average, 39.11 visits per 1000 people; 95% confidence interval, 36.21-42.01) and the West had the fewest (yearly average, 17.63 visits per 1000 people; 95% confidence interval, 16.76-18.49). Visits increased earliest in the South and in school-age children. Differences in visits between the South and other regions were most pronounced in the late summer through early winter. Visits peaked earliest in central southern states, in December to January, and latest on the coasts, in March. The onset of the rise in GAS pharyngitis visits correlated with, but preceded, average school start times.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden and timing of GAS pharyngitis varied across the continental United States, with the South experiencing the highest overall rates and earliest onset and peak in outpatient visits. Understanding the drivers of these regional differences in GAS pharyngitis will help in identifying and targeting prevention measures.

Geographic Progression of Infant Respiratory Syncytial Virus Associated Bronchiolitis Across the United States Before and Since the Onset of COVID-19: Results From Four Health Systems, 2015-2023

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a substantial cause of infant morbidity and mortality due to seasonal peaks of bronchiolitis across the United States. Clinical and viral surveillance plays a pivotal role in helping hospital systems prepare for expected surges in RSV bronchiolitis. Existing surveillance efforts have shown a geographic pattern of RSV positivity across the United States, with cases typically starting in the southeast and spreading north and west. Public health measures implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted viral transmission across the nation and altered the expected seasonality of RSV. The impact of these changes on the geographic progression of infant RSV bronchiolitis across the United States has not been described.

METHODS

Here, we used clinical and viral surveillance data from four health care systems located in different regions of the United States to describe the geographic progression of infant RSV bronchiolitis across the country from 2015 to 2023.

RESULTS

Prior to widespread circulation of SARS-CoV-2, infant RSV bronchiolitis followed an established geographic pattern associated with seasonal epidemics originating in Florida and spreading north (North Carolina and New York) and later westward (Nevada). Although public health and social measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the seasonality of RSV disease, infant RSV bronchiolitis epidemics progressed across the nation in a pattern identical to the prepandemic era.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the importance of ongoing clinical and viral surveillance to optimally track the onset of RSV epidemics and allow health care systems to prepare for expected RSV bronchiolitis surges.

Seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus infection in children hospitalized with acute lower respiratory tract infections in Hunan, China, 2013-2022

BACKGROUND

In China, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections traditionally occur during the spring and winter seasons. However, a shift in the seasonal trend was noted in 2020-2022, during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

METHODS

This study investigated the seasonal characteristics of RSV infection in children hospitalized with acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTIs). The RSV epidemic season was defined as RSV positivity in > 10% of the hospitalized ALRTI cases each week. Nine RSV seasons were identified between 2013 and 2022, and nonlinear ordinary least squares regression models were used to assess the differences in year-to-year epidemic seasonality trends.

RESULTS

We enrolled 49,658 hospitalized children diagnosed with ALRTIs over a 9-year period, and the RSV antigen-positive rate was 15.2% (n = 7,566/49,658). Between 2013 and 2022, the average onset and end of the RSV season occurred in week 44 (late October) and week 17 of the following year, respectively, with a typical duration of 27 weeks. However, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the usual spring RSV peak did not occur. Instead, the 2020 epidemic started in week 32, and RSV seasonality persisted into 2021, lasting for an unprecedented 87 weeks before concluding in March 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

RSV seasonality was disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the season exhibited an unusually prolonged duration. These findings may provide valuable insights for clinical practice and public health considerations.

Epidemiology and burden of respiratory syncytial virus in Italian adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common respiratory pathogen not only in children, but also in adults. In view of a recent authorization of adult RSV vaccines in Italy, our research question was to quantify the epidemiology and burden of RSV in Italian adults.

METHODS

Observational studies on the epidemiology and clinical burden of laboratory-confirmed or record-coded RSV infection in Italian adults of any age were eligible. Studies with no separate data for Italian adults, modeling and other secondary publications were excluded. A literature search was performed in MEDLINE, Biological Abstracts, Global Health, Scopus and Web of Science on 22 November 2023. Critical appraisal was performed by means of a Joanna Briggs Institute checklist. Random-effects (RE) meta-analysis was performed to obtain pooled estimates and the observed heterogeneity was investigated by subgroup and meta-regression analyses. The protocol was prospectively registered (doi.org/10.17504/protocols.io.5qpvo32odv4o/v1).

RESULTS

Thirty-five studies were identified, most of which had at least one possible quality concern. RSV seasonal attack rates ranged from 0.8 ‰ in community-dwelling older adults to 10.9% in hematological outpatients. In the RE model, 4.5% (95% CI: 3.2-5.9%) of respiratory samples tested positive for RSV. This positivity prevalence was higher in older adults (4.4%) than in working-age adults (3.5%) and in outpatient (4.9%) than inpatient (2.9%) settings. According to the meta-regression, study location and sample size were also significant predictors of RSV detection frequency. The pooled estimate of in-hospital mortality was as high as 7.2% (95% CI: 4.7-10.3%). Data on other indicators of the diseases burden, such as complication and hospitalization rates, were unavailable.

CONCLUSION

RSV poses a measurable burden on Italian adults, especially those of older age and with some co-morbidities. However, several data on the natural history of RSV disease are missing and should be established by future large-scale studies.

Multi-faceted analysis and prediction for the outbreak of pediatric respiratory syncytial virus

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a significant cause of pediatric hospitalizations. This article aims to utilize multisource data and leverage the tensor methods to uncover distinct RSV geographic clusters and develop an accurate RSV prediction model for future seasons.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study utilizes 5-year RSV data from sources, including medical claims, CDC surveillance data, and Google search trends. We conduct spatiotemporal tensor analysis and prediction for pediatric RSV in the United States by designing (i) a nonnegative tensor factorization model for pediatric RSV diseases and location clustering; (ii) and a recurrent neural network tensor regression model for county-level trend prediction using the disease and location features.

RESULTS

We identify a clustering hierarchy of pediatric diseases: Three common geographic clusters of RSV outbreaks were identified from independent sources, showing an annual RSV trend shifting across different US regions, from the South and Southeast regions to the Central and Northeast regions and then to the West and Northwest regions, while precipitation and temperature were found as correlative factors with the coefficient of determination R2≈0.5, respectively. Our regression model accurately predicted the 2022-2023 RSV season at the county level, achieving R2≈0.3 mean absolute error MAE < 0.4 and a Pearson correlation greater than 0.75, which significantly outperforms the baselines with P-values <.05.

CONCLUSION

Our proposed framework provides a thorough analysis of RSV disease in the United States, which enables healthcare providers to better prepare for potential outbreaks, anticipate increased demand for services and supplies, and save more lives with timely interventions.

Comparative analysis of human respiratory syncytial virus evolutionary patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic and pre-pandemic periods

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the implementation of strict mitigation measures that have impacted the transmission dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV). The measures also have the potential to influence the evolutionary patterns of the virus. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis comparing genomic variations and evolving characteristics of its neutralizing antigens, specifically F and G proteins, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings showed that both HRSV A and B exhibited an overall chronological evolutionary pattern. For the sequences obtained during the pandemic period (2019-2022), we observed that the HRSV A distributed in A23 genotype, but formed into three subclusters; whereas the HRSV B sequences were relatively concentrated within genotype B6. Additionally, multiple positively selected sites were detected on F and G proteins but none were located at neutralizing antigenic sites of the F protein. Notably, amino acids within antigenic site III, IV, and V of F protein remained strictly conserved, while some substitutions occurred over time on antigenic site Ø, I, II and VIII; substitution S389P on antigenic site I of HRSV B occurred during the pandemic period with nearly 50% frequency. However, further analysis revealed no substitutions have altered the structural conformations of the antigenic sites, the vial antigenicity has not been changed. We inferred that the intensive public health interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the evolutionary mode of HRSV.

The effects of weather and mobility on respiratory viruses dynamics before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and Canada

The flu season is caused by a combination of different pathogens, including influenza viruses (IVS), that cause the flu, and non-influenza respiratory viruses (NIRVs), that cause common colds or influenza-like illness. These viruses exhibit similar dynamics and meteorological conditions have historically been regarded as a principal modulator of their epidemiology, with outbreaks in the winter and almost no circulation during the summer, in temperate regions. However, after the emergence of SARS-CoV2, in late 2019, the dynamics of these respiratory viruses were strongly perturbed worldwide: some infections displayed near-eradication, while others experienced temporal shifts or occurred "off-season". This disruption raised questions regarding the dominant role of weather while also providing an unique opportunity to investigate the roles of different determinants on the epidemiological dynamics of IVs and NIRVs. Here, we employ statistical analysis and modelling to test the effects of weather and mobility in viral dynamics, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging epidemiological surveillance data on several respiratory viruses, from Canada and the USA, from 2016 to 2023, we found that whereas in the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period, weather had a strong effect, in the pandemic period the effect of weather was strongly reduced and mobility played a more relevant role. These results, together with previous studies, indicate that behavioral changes resulting from the non-pharmacological interventions implemented to control SARS-CoV2, interfered with the dynamics of other respiratory viruses, and that the past dynamical equilibrium was disturbed, and perhaps permanently altered, by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Epidemiology of RSV Bronchiolitis Among Young Children in Central New York Before and After the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is the leading cause of hospitalizations among infants in the United States. Unpredictability in RSV seasonality has occurred following the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Local surveillance networks can enhance the ability to appropriately time prophylaxis when exposure risk is highest.

METHODS

A retrospective, cohort study was conducted to describe the epidemiologic patterns of RSV disease among outpatient, emergency department and inpatient encounters in children <5 years in Central New York before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Local data were collected from October 2015 to January 2023 and compared to state-level data. Linear regression models were used to identify clinical and sociodemographic differences before and after the pandemic.

RESULTS

Local variation in RSV seasonality was noted prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, however highly atypical circulation patterns appeared in the post-COVID-19 era. Since March 2020, patterns for local and state-defined RSV seasons have remained atypical (local season onset in 2021: week 27 and 2022: week 27; state season onset in 2021: week 31 and 2022: week 38). After adjusting for increases in testing, RSV bronchiolitis cases were not significantly different during pre- and post-pandemic eras. In comparison to the 2021 bronchiolitis season, the 2022 season had a higher proportion of RSV cases despite decreased testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Temporal patterns for RSV have shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Local surveillance networks may be advantageous in trending community-level RSV activity to optimize prophylaxis administration. Changes in RSV testing patterns occurred throughout the study period and should be accounted for when describing infant and childhood RSV disease.

Spatiotemporal Trends in Group A Streptococcal Pharyngitis in the United States

Background

Group A Streptococcus (GAS) causes an estimated 5.2 million outpatient visits for pharyngitis annually in the United States (U.S.) with incidence peaking in winter, but the annual spatiotemporal pattern of GAS pharyngitis across the U.S. is poorly characterized.

Methods

We used outpatient claims data from individuals with private medical insurance between 2010-2018 to quantify GAS pharyngitis visit rates across U.S. census regions, subregions, and states. We evaluated seasonal and age-based patterns of geographic spread and the association between school start dates and the summertime upward inflection in GAS visits.

Results

The South had the most visits per person (yearly average 39.11 visits per 1000 people, 95% CI: 36.21-42.01), and the West had the fewest (yearly average 17.63 visits per 1000 people, 95% CI: 16.76-18.49). Visits increased earliest in the South and in school-age children. Differences in visits between the South and other regions were most pronounced in the late summer through early winter. Visits peaked earliest in central southern states, in December to January, and latest on the coasts, in March. The onset of the rise in GAS pharyngitis visits correlated with, but preceded, average school start times.

Conclusions

The burden and timing of GAS pharyngitis varied across the continental U.S., with the South experiencing the highest overall rates and earliest onset and peak in outpatient visits. Understanding the drivers of these regional differences in GAS pharyngitis will help in identifying and targeting prevention measures.

Mapping spatial morbidity patterns for bronchiolitis related to socioeconomic estimators: A spatial epidemiology approach to identify health disparities in Puerto Madryn, Argentina

OBJECTIVES

To describe the frequency of hospitalizations of infants under 1 year of age with bronchiolitis in Puerto Madryn, Argentina, and to study the spatial distribution of cases throughout the city in relation to socioeconomic indicators. To visualize and better understand the underlying processes behind the local manifestation of the disease by creating a vulnerability map of the city.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study of all patients discharged for bronchiolitis from the local public Hospital in 2017, considering length of hospital stay, readmission rate, patient age, home address and socioeconomic indicators (household overcrowding). To understand the local spatial distribution of the disease and its relationship to overcrowding, we used GIS and Moran's global and local spatial autocorrelation indices.

RESULTS

The spatial distribution of bronchiolitis cases was not random, but significantly aggregated. Of the 120 hospitalized children, 100 infants (83.33%) live in areas identified as having at least one unsatisfied basic need (UBN). We found a positive and statistically significant relationship between frequency of cases and percentage of overcrowded housing by census radius.

CONCLUSIONS

A clear association was found between bronchiolitis and neighborhoods with UBNs, and overcrowding is likely to be a particularly important explanatory factor in this association. By combining GIS tools, spatial statistics, geo-referenced epidemiological data, and population-level information, vulnerability maps can be created to facilitate visualization of priority areas for development and implementation of more effective health interventions. Incorporating the spatial and syndemic perspective into health studies makes important contributions to the understanding of local health-disease processes.

Nonlinear and Multidelayed Effects of Meteorological Drivers on Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Japan

In this study, we aimed to characterize the nonlinear and multidelayed effects of multiple meteorological drivers on human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) infection epidemics in Japan. The prefecture-specific weekly time-series of the number of newly confirmed HRSV infection cases and multiple meteorological variables were collected for 47 Japanese prefectures from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2019. We combined standard time-series generalized linear models with distributed lag nonlinear models to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the incidence relative risks (IRRs) of HRSV infection and its meteorological drivers. Pooling the 2-week cumulative estimates showed that overall high ambient temperatures (22.7 °C at the 75th percentile compared to 16.3 °C) and high relative humidity (76.4% at the 75th percentile compared to 70.4%) were associated with higher HRSV infection incidence (IRR for ambient temperature 1.068, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.056-1.079; IRR for relative humidity 1.045, 95% CI, 1.032-1.059). Precipitation revealed a positive association trend, and for wind speed, clear evidence of a negative association was found. Our findings provide a basic picture of the seasonality of HRSV transmission and its nonlinear association with multiple meteorological drivers in the pre-HRSV-vaccination and pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) era in Japan.

Modeling Respiratory Syncytial Virus Adult Vaccination in the United States With a Dynamic Transmission Model

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is shown to cause substantial morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality in infants and older adults. Population-level modeling of RSV allows to estimate the full burden of disease and the potential epidemiological impact of novel prophylactics.

METHODS

We modeled the RSV epidemiology in the United States across all ages using a deterministic compartmental transmission model. Population-level symptomatic RSV acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) cases were projected across different natural history scenarios with and without vaccination of adults aged ≥60 years. The impact of vaccine efficacy against ARIs, infectiousness and vaccine coverage on ARI incidence were assessed. The impact on medical attendance, hospitalization, complications, death, and other outcomes was also derived.

RESULTS

Without a vaccine, we project 17.5-22.6 million symptomatic RSV ARI cases annually in adults aged ≥18 years in the US, with 3.6-4.8 million/year occurring in adults aged ≥60 years. Modeling indicates that up to 2.0 million symptomatic RSV-ARI cases could be prevented annually in ≥60-year-olds with a hypothetical vaccine (70% vaccine efficacy against symptomatic ARI and 60% vaccine coverage) and that up to 0.69 million/year could be prevented in the nonvaccinated population, assuming 50% vaccine impact on infectiousness.

CONCLUSIONS

The model provides estimated burden of RSV in the US across all age groups, with substantial burden projected specifically in older adults. Vaccination of adults aged ≥60 years could significantly reduce the burden of disease in this population, with additional indirect effect in adults aged <60 years due to reduced transmissibility.

Epidemiological impacts of post-infection mortality

Infectious diseases may cause some long-term damage to their host, leading to elevated mortality even after recovery. Mortality due to complications from so-called 'long COVID' is a stark illustration of this potential, but the impacts of such post-infection mortality (PIM) on epidemic dynamics are not known. Using an epidemiological model that incorporates PIM, we examine the importance of this effect. We find that in contrast to mortality during infection, PIM can induce epidemic cycling. The effect is due to interference between elevated mortality and reinfection through the previously infected susceptible pool. In particular, robust immunity (via decreased susceptibility to reinfection) reduces the likelihood of cycling; on the other hand, disease-induced mortality can interact with weak PIM to generate periodicity. In the absence of PIM, we prove that the unique endemic equilibrium is stable and therefore our key result is that PIM is an overlooked phenomenon that is likely to be destabilizing. Overall, given potentially widespread effects, our findings highlight the importance of characterizing heterogeneity in susceptibility (via both PIM and robustness of host immunity) for accurate epidemiological predictions. In particular, for diseases without robust immunity, such as SARS-CoV-2, PIM may underlie complex epidemiological dynamics especially in the context of seasonal forcing.

Unusual local epidemic of paediatric respiratory syncytial virus during a time of global pandemic

BACKGROUND

Western Australia (WA) public health measures to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 resulted in a secondary reduction in paediatric respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) admissions. Following an absent expected 2020 winter peak, RSV-positive admissions surged during the summer of 2020.

AIM

This report examines the number of RSV-positive admissions and severities across 36 months to better understand this out-of-season epidemic.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study was performed assessing the number and severity of RSV-related respiratory hospitalisations at a peripheral paediatric centre from March 2018 to February 2021. Data were extracted from the hospital clinical database.

RESULTS

The total number of included participants was n = 294. The total number of RSV hospitalisations in SY (study year) 2018 (March 2018 to February 2019), SY 2019 (March 2019 to February 2020) and SY 2020 (March 2020 to February 2021) was 67, 98 and 129, respectively. Prior to SARS-CoV-2, RSV hospitalisations were highest during the winter months. In SY 2020, there were 0 RSV hospitalisations during winter, while 101 admissions in the following summer season. The proportion of admissions requiring respiratory support was significantly reduced in SY 2020 (34.1%) compared to SY 2018 (46.9%, P = 0.050) and SY 2019 (55.2%, P = 0.004). The median length of stay (LOS) in 2020 was 2.0 which was significantly reduced from 2018 and 2019 which was 3.0, P = 0.001; and 3.0, P < 0.001, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Following a period of RSV absence, there was an unprecedented surge in admission, however, with lower severity and shorter LOS.

Infodemiology of RSV in Italy (2017-2022): An Alternative Option for the Surveillance of Incident Cases in Pediatric Age?

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether or not online queries for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) retrieved by means of Google Trends™ and the Italian Wikipedia analysis program mirror the occurrence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI), as reported by the Italian Influenza Surveillance network (InfluNet). Estimated rates for ILI in the general population and in the age groups 0−4 years and 5−14 years were obtained for the influenza seasons 2017−2018 to 2020−2021. Similarly, a weekly fraction of online searches was retrieved for a series of terms associated with Respiratory Syncytial Virus. Next, trends for daily visualization of Italian Wikipedia Pages for Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Pneumonia, Bronchiolitis, Influenza, and Respiratory Failure were similarly retrieved. The correlation of all search terms with ILI was analyzed by means of Spearman’s rank correlation analysis. Among search terms associated with the clinical diagnosis of Respiratory Syncytial Virus infections, the occurrence of ILI was highly correlated only with Bronchiolitis in the age group 0−4 years (β 0.210, p = 0.028), while more generic search terms, such as Bronchitis, fever, influenza, and Pneumonia, were identified as effective predictors of ILI, in general and by age groups. In a regression analysis modeled with ILIs as the outcome variable, daily visualizations for the Wikipedia pages on Bronchiolitis were identified as negative predictors for ILI in general (β = −0.152, p = 0.032), ILI in age group 0−4 years (β = −0.264, p = 0.001) and 5−14 years (β = −0.202, p = 0.006), while Influenza was characterized as a positive effector for ILIs in the age group 5−14 years (β = 0.245, p = 0.001). Interestingly, not only were the search terms extensively correlated with one another, but all of them were also characterized by autocorrelation through a Durbin-Watson test (all estimates DW < 2.0) In summary, our study identified a complicated pattern of data visualization as no clear association between rates of ILI in pediatric age group 0−4 and 5 to 14 years was actually found. Finally, our data stress that the infodemiology option may be quite problematic for assessing the time trend of RSV infections in Italy until more appropriate reporting will be made available, by sharing estimates of Lower Respiratory Tract Infections, and through a more accurate characterization of younger age groups.

Long-term benefits of nonpharmaceutical interventions for endemic infections are shaped by respiratory pathogen dynamics

COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mask wearing, have proved highly effective at reducing the transmission of endemic infections. A key public health question is whether NPIs could continue to be implemented long term to reduce the ongoing burden from endemic pathogens. Here, we use epidemiological models to explore the impact of long-term NPIs on the dynamics of endemic infections. We find that the introduction of NPIs leads to a strong initial reduction in incidence, but this effect is transient: As susceptibility increases, epidemics return while NPIs are in place. For low R₀ infections, these return epidemics are of reduced equilibrium incidence and epidemic peak size. For high R₀ infections, return epidemics are of similar magnitude to pre-NPI outbreaks. Our results underline that managing ongoing susceptible buildup, e.g., with vaccination, remains an important long-term goal.

Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant childhood morbidity and mortality in the developing world. The determinants of RSV seasonality are of importance in designing interventions. They are poorly understood in tropical and sub-tropical regions in low- and middle-income countries. Our study utilized long-term surveillance data on cases of RSV associated with severe or very severe pneumonia in children aged 1 day to 59 months admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital. A generalized additive model was used to investigate the association between RSV admissions and meteorological variables (maximum temperature, rainfall, absolute humidity); weekly number of births within the catchment population; and school term dates. Furthermore, a time-series-susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model was used to reconstruct an empirical transmission rate which was used as a dependent variable in linear regression and generalized additive models with meteorological variables and school term dates. Maximum temperature, absolute humidity, and weekly number of births were significantly associated with RSV activity in the generalized additive model. Results from the TSIR model indicated that maximum temperature and absolute humidity were significant factors. Rainfall and school term did not yield significant relationships. Our study indicates that meteorological parameters and weekly number of births potentially play a role in the RSV seasonality in this region. More research is required to explore the underlying mechanisms underpinning the observed relationships.

Predicted effectiveness of vaccines and extended half-life monoclonal antibodies against RSV hospitalizations in children

Several vaccines and extended half-life monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) have shown promise in clinical trials. We used age-structured transmission models to predict the possible impact of various RSV prevention strategies including maternal immunization, live-attenuated vaccines, and long-lasting mAbs. Our results suggest that maternal immunization and long-lasting mAbs are likely to be highly effective in preventing RSV hospitalizations in infants under 6 months of age, averting more than half of RSV hospitalizations in neonates. Live-attenuated vaccines could reduce RSV hospitalizations in vaccinated age groups and are also predicted to have a modest effect in unvaccinated age groups because of disruptions to transmission. Compared to year-round vaccination, a seasonal vaccination program at the country level provides at most a minor advantage regarding efficiency. Our findings highlight the substantial public health impact that upcoming RSV prevention strategies may provide.

Age-specific hospitalization risk of primary and secondary respiratory syncytial virus infection among young children

OBJECTIVES

Elucidating the infection dynamics that lead to severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia and hospitalization among young children are critical. We explored the role of infection parity as well as age in months for RSV-associated hospitalization among young children in Japan.

METHODS

We used a sequential transmission catalytic model to capture the transmission mechanisms of RSV among infants in an endemic state. We investigated data on the age-dependent seroprevalence and incidence rate of hospitalization in Japan, and jointly estimated the age-specific risk of hospitalization during primary RSV infection and relative risk of hospitalization during secondary infection in children aged <5 years.

RESULTS

The estimated risk of hospitalization with primary infection was 0.08 (95% CI: 0.05-0.14) in infants aged 0-2 months. The estimated relative risk of hospitalization owing to secondary infection was 0.18 (95% CI: 0.01-2.04).

CONCLUSION

Our simple models successfully captured the infection dynamics of RSV among young children in Japan. The age group of early infancy may be most vulnerable to infection and hospitalization, offering key insights into future vaccinations. The burden of hospitalization from secondary infection may be less important in young children.

Determinants of RSV epidemiology following suppression through pandemic contact restrictions

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) led to a suppression of RSV circulation in winter 2020/21 in the UK and an off-season resurgence in Summer 2021. We explore how the parameters of RSV epidemiology shape the size and dynamics of post-suppression resurgence and what we can learn about them from the resurgence patterns observed so far.

METHODS

We developed an age-structured dynamic transmission model of RSV and sampled the parameters governing RSV seasonality, infection susceptibility and post-infection immunity, retaining simulations fitting the UK's pre-pandemic epidemiology by a set of global criteria consistent with likelihood calculations. From Spring 2020 to Summer 2021 we assumed a reduced contact frequency, returning to pre-pandemic levels from Spring 2021. We simulated transmission forwards until 2023 and evaluated the impact of the sampled parameters on the projected trajectories of RSV hospitalisations and compared these to the observed resurgence.

RESULTS

Simulations replicated an out-of-season resurgence of RSV in 2021. If unmitigated, paediatric RSV hospitalisation incidence in the 2021/22 season was projected to increase by 30-60% compared to pre-pandemic levels. The increase was larger if infection risk was primarily determined by immunity acquired from previous exposure rather than age-dependent factors, exceeding 90 % and 130 % in 1-2 and 2-5 year old children, respectively. Analysing the simulations replicating the observed early outbreak in 2021 in addition to pre-pandemic RSV data, we found they were characterised by weaker seasonal forcing, stronger age-dependence of infection susceptibility and higher baseline transmissibility.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 mitigation measures in the UK stopped RSV circulation in the 2020/21 season and generated immunity debt leading to an early off-season RSV epidemic in 2021. A stronger dependence of infection susceptibility on immunity from previous exposure increases the size of the resurgent season. The early onset of the RSV resurgence in 2021, its marginally increased size relative to previous seasons and its decline by January 2022 suggest a stronger dependence of infection susceptibility on age-related factors, as well as a weaker effect of seasonality and a higher baseline transmissibility. The pattern of resurgence has been complicated by contact levels still not back to pre-pandemic levels. Further fitting of RSV resurgence in multiple countries incorporating data on contact patterns will be needed to further narrow down these parameters and to better predict the pathogen's future trajectory, planning for a potential expansion of new immunisation products against RSV in the coming years.

Relative timing of respiratory syncytial virus epidemics in summer 2021 across the United States was similar to a typical winter season

We used a validated proxy of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity in the United States (Google search data) to evaluate the onsets of RSV epidemics in 2021 and 2016-2019. Despite the unusual out-of-season summer timing, the relative timing of RSV epidemics between states in 2021 shared a similar spatial pattern with typical winter RSV seasons. Our results suggest that the onset of RSV epidemics in Florida can serve as a baseline to adjust the initiation of prophylaxis administration and clinical trials in other states regardless of the seasonality of RSV epidemics.

RSV disease in infants and young children: Can we see a brighter future?

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a highly contagious seasonal virus and the leading cause of Lower Respiratory Tract Infections (LRTI), including pneumonia and bronchiolitis in children. RSV-related LRTI cause approximately 3 million hospitalizations and 120,000 deaths annually among children <5 years of age. The majority of the burden of RSV occurs in previously healthy infants. Only a monoclonal antibody (mAb) has been approved against RSV infections in a restricted group, leaving an urgent unmet need for a large number of children potentially benefiting from preventive measures. Approaches under development include maternal vaccines to protect newborns, extended half-life monoclonal antibodies to provide rapid long-lasting protection, and pediatric vaccines. RSV has been identified as a major global priority but a solution to tackle this unmet need for all children has yet to be implemented. New technologies represent the avenue for effectively addressing the leading-cause of hospitalization in children <1 years old.

Evaluating the Individual Healthcare Costs and Burden of Disease Associated with RSV Across Age Groups

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of acute respiratory infection (ARI), with high morbidity and mortality worldwide. RSV costing and burden estimates can highlight the potential benefits of future vaccination programs and are essential for economic evaluations.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine RSV healthcare costs across age groups and the overall disease burden of medically attended RSV in Canada.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective case-control study to estimate the attributable healthcare costs per RSV case in Alberta. We used two case definitions to capture diversity in case severity: laboratory-confirmed RSV and ARI attributable to RSV. Matching occurred on five criteria: (1) age, (2) urban/rural status, (3) sex, (4) prematurity and (5) Charlson Comorbidity Index score. We calculated the age-specific burden of medically attended RSV in Canada from 2010 to 2019 by multiplying the weekly age-specific incidence of medically attended ARI with the RSV positivity rate.

RESULTS

Costs per laboratory-confirmed RSV case were (in Canadian dollars [CAD], year 2020 values) $CAD12,713 and 40,028 in the first 30 and 365 days following diagnosis, respectively, whereas a case of ARI potentially attributable to RSV cost $CAD316 and 915, in 30 and 365 days, respectively. Older (aged ≥ 65 years) and younger (aged < 90 days) age groups had the highest case costs. The average medically attended RSV incidence rate across nine seasons was 1743 cases per 100,000 people per year.

CONCLUSIONS

RSV is a common and expensive infection at the extremes of life, and the development of immunization programs targeting older and younger ages may be important for the reduction of RSV burden and cost.

Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in Children Aged <5 Years in China, from 2014−2018

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important pathogen that causes acute respiratory tract infections in children. To understand the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of RSV in children, we analyzed the RSV diagnostic testing results from the 2014−2018 surveillance of acute respiratory infections in China. Among children aged <5 years, RSV incidence during 2014−2018 was 17.3% (3449/19,898), and 89.1% of RSV-positive individuals were inpatients. Children aged < 6 months had a high proportion in RSV infected individual (n = 1234; 35.8%). The highest RSV detection rate was in winter, RSV-A and RSV-B co-circulated year-round and jointly prevailed in 2015−2016. Cough was the common symptom of RSV infection 93.2% (3216/3449). Compared with older children, those aged <6 months were more likely to show breathing difficulty or lung rale that further developed into bronchopneumonia (p < 0.001). The symptoms such as cough, running nose, and diarrhea had significant differences between the RSV-A and RSV-B groups. The rate of RSV co-detection with other viruses or bacteria was 35.4%. Those coinfected with other viruses had a significantly higher incidence of fever, whereas those coinfected with bacteria had higher incidences of breathing difficulty and severe pneumonia. Our findings highlight the need for accumulating epidemiological information for the prevention and control of RSV.

Distinguishing viruses responsible for influenza-like illness

The many respiratory viruses that cause influenza-like illness (ILI) are reported and tracked as one entity, defined by the CDC as a group of symptoms that include a fever of 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a cough, and/or a sore throat. In the United States alone, ILI impacts 9-49 million people every year. While tracking ILI as a single clinical syndrome is informative in many respects, the underlying viruses differ in parameters and outbreak properties. Most existing models treat either a single respiratory virus or ILI as a whole. However, there is a need for models capable of comparing several individual viruses that cause respiratory illness, including ILI. To address this need, here we present a flexible model and simulations of epidemics for influenza, RSV, rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus, adenovirus, and SARS/MERS, parameterized by a systematic literature review and accompanied by a global sensitivity analysis. We find that for these biological causes of ILI, their parameter values, timing, prevalence, and proportional contributions differ substantially. These results demonstrate that distinguishing the viruses that cause ILI will be an important aspect of future work on diagnostics, mitigation, modeling, and preparation for future pandemics.

Use of mathematical modelling to assess respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and interventions: a literature review

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection worldwide, resulting in approximately sixty thousand annual hospitalizations of< 5-year-olds in the United States alone and three million annual hospitalizations globally. The development of over 40 vaccines and immunoprophylactic interventions targeting RSV has the potential to significantly reduce the disease burden from RSV infection in the near future. In the context of RSV, a highly contagious pathogen, dynamic transmission models (DTMs) are valuable tools in the evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of different interventions. This review, the first of its kind for RSV DTMs, provides a valuable foundation for future modelling efforts and highlights important gaps in our understanding of RSV epidemics. Specifically, we have searched the literature using Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, and PubMed to identify all published manuscripts reporting the development of DTMs focused on the population transmission of RSV. We reviewed the resulting studies and summarized the structure, parameterization, and results of the models developed therein. We anticipate that future RSV DTMs, combined with cost-effectiveness evaluations, will play a significant role in shaping decision making in the development and implementation of intervention programs.

Potential Impact of Nirsevimab on RSV Transmission and Medically Attended Lower Respiratory Tract Illness Caused by RSV: A Disease Transmission Model

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is associated with significant morbidity worldwide, especially among infants. We evaluated the potential impact of prophylactic nirsevimab, a monoclonal antibody, in infants experiencing their first RSV season, and the number of medically-attended lower respiratory tract infection episodes caused by RSV (RSV-MALRTI) in the USA.

METHODS

We developed an age-structured, dynamic, deterministic compartmental model reflecting RSV natural history, incorporating USA demographic data and an age-specific contact matrix. We assumed either no effect of nirsevimab on transmission (scenario 1) or a 50% reduction of viral shedding (scenario 2). Model outcomes were RSV-MALRTIs, ICD-9 coded in the Marketscan® database by month. We focused on age groups corresponding to the first 2 years of life, during seven RSV seasons (2008-2015).

RESULTS

Scenario 1 illustrated the direct individual benefit when a universal immunization strategy is applied to all infants. In scenario 2, herd protection was observed across age groups, with 15.5% of all avoided cases due to reduced transmission; the greatest impact was in the youngest age group and a benefit was observed in those aged 65+ years.

CONCLUSION

These preliminary data suggest that single-dose nirsevimab will benefit infants experiencing their first RSV season, with a potential increase in effectiveness dependent on nirsevimab's mechanism of action.

Potential Contribution of Climate Conditions on COVID-19 Pandemic Transmission over West and North African Countries

COVID-19, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a very contagious disease that has killed many people worldwide. According to data from the World Health Organization (WHO), the spread of the disease appears to be slower in Africa. Although several studies have been published on the relationship between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 transmission, the effects of climate conditions on COVID-19 remain largely unexplored and without consensus. However, the transmission of COVID-19 and sensitivity to climate conditions are also not fully understood in Africa. Here, using available epidemiological data over 275 days (i.e., from 1 March to 30 November 2020) taken from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control of the European Union database and daily data of surface air temperature specific humidity and water vapor from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), this paper investigates the potential contribution of climate conditions on COVID-19 transmission over 16 selected countries throughout three climatic regions of Africa (i.e., Sahel, Maghreb, and Gulf of Guinea). The results highlight statistically significant inverse correlations between COVID-19 cases and temperature over the Maghreb and the Gulf of Guinea regions. In contrast, positive correlations are found over the Sahel area, especially in the central part, including Niger and Mali. Correlations with specific humidity and water vapor parameters display significant and positive values over the Sahelian and the Gulf of Guinea countries and negative values over the Maghreb countries. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic transmission is influenced differently across the three climatic regions: (i) cold and dry environmental conditions over the Maghreb; (ii) warm and humid conditions over the Sahel; and (iii) cold and humid conditions over the Gulf of Guinea. In addition, for all three climatic regions, even though the climate impact has been found to be significant, its effect appears to display a secondary role based on the explanatory power variance compared to non-climatic factors assumed to be dominated by socio-economic factors and early strong public health measures.

Estimation of the Timing and Intensity of Reemergence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Following the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US

Importance

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospitalizations in young children. RSV largely disappeared in 2020 owing to precautions taken because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimating the timing and intensity of the reemergence of RSV and the age groups affected is crucial for planning for the administration of prophylactic antibodies and anticipating hospital capacity.

Objective

To examine the association of different factors, including mitigation strategies, duration of maternal-derived immunity, and importation of external infections, with the dynamics of reemergent RSV epidemics.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This simulation modeling study used mathematical models to reproduce the annual epidemics of RSV before the COVID-19 pandemic in New York and California. These models were modified to project the trajectory of RSV epidemics from 2020 to 2025 under different scenarios with varying stringency of mitigation measures for SARS-CoV-2. Simulations also evaluated factors likely to affect the reemergence of RSV epidemics, including introduction of the virus from out-of-state sources and decreased transplacentally acquired immunity in infants. Models using parameters fitted to similar inpatient data sets from Colorado and Florida were used to illustrate these associations in populations with biennial RSV epidemics and year-round RSV circulation, respectively. Statistical analysis was performed from February to October 2021.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome of this study was defined as the estimated number of RSV hospitalizations each month in the entire population. Secondary outcomes included the age distribution of hospitalizations among children less than 5 years of age, incidence of any RSV infection, and incidence of RSV lower respiratory tract infection.

Results

Among a simulated population of 19.45 million people, virus introduction from external sources was associated with the emergence of the spring and summer epidemic in 2021. There was a tradeoff between the intensity of the spring and summer epidemic in 2021 and the intensity of the epidemic in the subsequent winter. Among children 1 year of age, the estimated incidence of RSV hospitalizations was 707 per 100 000 children per year in the 2021 and 2022 RSV season, compared with 355 per 100 000 children per year in a typical RSV season.

Conclusions and Relevance

This simulation modeling study found that virus introduction from external sources was associated with the spring and summer epidemics in 2021. These findings suggest that pediatric departments should be alert to large RSV outbreaks in the coming seasons, the intensity of which could depend on the size of the spring and summer epidemic in that location. Enhanced surveillance is recommended for both prophylaxis administration and hospital capacity management.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus: New Challenges for Molecular Epidemiology Surveillance and Vaccination Strategy in Patients with ILI/SARI

Several respiratory pathogens are responsible for influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe respiratory infections (SARI), among which human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) represents one of the most common aetiologies. We analysed the hRSV prevalence among subjects with ILI or SARI during the five influenza seasons before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Sicily (Italy). Respiratory specimens from ILI outpatients and SARI inpatients were collected in the framework of the Italian Network for the Influenza Surveillance and molecularly tested for hRSV-A and hRSV-B. Overall, 8.1% of patients resulted positive for hRSV. Prevalence peaked in the age-groups <5 years old (range: 17.6–19.1%) and ≥50 years old (range: 4.8–5.1%). While the two subgroups co-circulated throughout the study period, hRSV-B was slightly predominant over hRSV-A, except for the season 2019–2020 when hRSV-A strongly prevailed (82.9%). In the community setting, the distribution of hRSV subgroups was balanced (47.8% vs. 49.7% for hRSV-A and hRSV-B, respectively), while most infections identified in the hospital setting were caused by hRSV-B (69.5%); also, this latter one was more represented among hRSV cases with underlying diseases, as well as among those who developed a respiratory complication. The molecular surveillance of hRSV infections may provide a valuable insight into the epidemiological features of ILI/SARI. Our findings add new evidence to the existing knowledge on viral aetiology of ILI and SARI in support of public health strategies and may help to define high-risk categories that could benefit from currently available and future vaccines.