Inclusive fitness forces of selection in an age-structured population

Hamilton's force of selection acting against age-specific mortality is constant and maximal prior to the age of first reproduction, before declining to zero at the age of last reproduction. The force of selection acting on age-specific reproduction declines monotonically from birth in a growing or stationary population. Central to these results is the assumption that individuals do not interact with one another. This assumption is violated in social organisms, where an individual's survival and/or reproduction may shape the inclusive fitness of other group members. Yet, it remains unclear how the forces of selection might be modified when inclusive fitness, rather than population growth rate, is considered the appropriate metric for fitness. Here, we derive such inclusive fitness forces of selection, and show that selection on age-specific survival is not always constant before maturity, and can remain above zero in post-reproductive age classes. We also show how the force of selection on age-specific reproduction does not always decline monotonically from birth, but instead depends on the balance of costs and benefits of increasing reproduction to both direct and indirect fitness. Our theoretical framework provides an opportunity to expand our understanding of senescence across social species.

Recent exposure to environmental stochasticity does not determine the demographic resilience of natural populations

Escalating climatic and anthropogenic pressures expose ecosystems worldwide to increasingly stochastic environments. Yet, our ability to forecast the responses of natural populations to this increased environmental stochasticity is impeded by a limited understanding of how exposure to stochastic environments shapes demographic resilience. Here, we test the association between local environmental stochasticity and the resilience attributes (e.g. resistance, recovery) of 2242 natural populations across 369 animal and plant species. Contrary to the assumption that past exposure to frequent environmental shifts confers a greater ability to cope with current and future global change, we illustrate how recent environmental stochasticity regimes from the past 50 years do not predict the inherent resistance or recovery potential of natural populations. Instead, demographic resilience is strongly predicted by the phylogenetic relatedness among species, with survival and developmental investments shaping their responses to environmental stochasticity. Accordingly, our findings suggest that demographic resilience is a consequence of evolutionary processes and/or deep-time environmental regimes, rather than recent-past experiences.

Facilitated Adaptation as A Conservation Tool in the Present Climate Change Context: A Methodological Guide

Climate change poses a novel threat to biodiversity that urgently requires the development of adequate conservation strategies. Living organisms respond to environmental change by migrating to locations where their ecological niche is preserved or by adapting to the new environment. While the first response has been used to develop, discuss and implement the strategy of assisted migration, facilitated adaptation is only beginning to be considered as a potential approach. Here, we present a review of the conceptual framework for facilitated adaptation, integrating advances and methodologies from different disciplines. Briefly, facilitated adaptation involves a population reinforcement that introduces beneficial alleles to enable the evolutionary adaptation of a focal population to pressing environmental conditions. To this purpose, we propose two methodological approaches. The first one (called pre-existing adaptation approach) is based on using pre-adapted genotypes existing in the focal population, in other populations, or even in closely related species. The second approach (called de novo adaptation approach) aims to generate new pre-adapted genotypes from the diversity present in the species through artificial selection. For each approach, we present a stage-by-stage procedure, with some techniques that can be used for its implementation. The associated risks and difficulties of each approach are also discussed.

Pollinator selection against toxic nectar as a key facilitator of a plant invasion

Plant compounds associated with herbivore defence occur widely in floral nectar and can impact pollinator health. We showed previously that Rhododendron ponticum nectar contains grayanotoxin I (GTX I) at concentrations that are lethal or sublethal to honeybees and a solitary bee in the plant's non-native range in Ireland. Here we further examined this conflict and tested the hypotheses that nectar GTX I is subject to negative pollinator-mediated selection in the non-native range, but that phenotypic linkage between GTX I levels in nectar and leaves acts as a constraint on independent evolution. We found that nectar GTX I experienced negative directional selection in the non-native range, in contrast to the native Iberian range, and that the magnitude and frequency of pollinator limitation indicated that selection was pollinator-mediated. Surprisingly, nectar GTX I levels were decoupled from those of leaves in the non-native range, which may have assisted post-invasion evolution of nectar without compromising the anti-herbivore function of GTX I (here demonstrated in bioassays with an ecologically relevant herbivore). Our study emphasizes the centrality of pollinator health as a concept linked to the invasion process, and how post-invasion evolution can be targeted toward minimizing lethal or sub-lethal effects on pollinators. This article is part of the theme issue 'Natural processes influencing pollinator health: from chemistry to landscapes'.

Modeling host-associating microbes under selection

The concept of fitness is often reduced to a single component, such as the replication rate in a given habitat. For species with multi-step life cycles, this can be an unjustified oversimplification, as every step of the life cycle can contribute to the overall reproductive success in a specific way. In particular, this applies to microbes that spend part of their life cycles associated to a host. In this case, there is a selection pressure not only on the replication rates, but also on the phenotypic traits associated to migrating from the external environment to the host and vice-versa (i.e., the migration rates). Here, we investigate a simple model of a microbial lineage living, replicating, migrating and competing in and between two compartments: a host and an environment. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the overall growth rate to determine the selection gradient experienced by the microbial lineage. We focus on the direction of selection at each point of the phenotypic space, defining an optimal way for the microbial lineage to increase its fitness. We show that microbes can adapt to the two-compartment life cycle through either changes in replication or migration rates, depending on the initial values of the traits, the initial distribution across the two compartments, the intensity of competition, and the time scales involved in the life cycle versus the time scale of adaptation (which determines the adequate probing time to measure fitness). Overall, our model provides a conceptual framework to study the selection on microbes experiencing a host-associated life cycle.

Dissecting impacts of phenological shifts for performance across biological scales

Although phenological shifts in response to climate are often assumed to benefit species' performance and viability, phenology's role in allowing population persistence and mediating species-level responses in the face of climate change remain unclear. Here, we develop a framework to understand when and why phenological shifts at three biological scales will influence performance: individuals, populations, and macroecological patterns. Specifically, we highlight three underexplored assumptions: (i) individual variability in phenology does not affect population fitness; (ii) population growth rates are sensitive to vital rates affected by phenology; and (iii) phenology mediates species-level responses to climate change including patterns of extinction, invasion, and range shifts. We outline promising methods for understanding how phenological shifts will influence performance within and across biological scales.

Applying symmetries of elasticities in matrix population models

Elasticity analysis is a key tool in the analysis of matrix population models, which describe the dynamics of stage-structured populations in ecology and evolution. Elasticities of the dominant eigenvalue of a matrix model to matrix entries obey certain symmetries. Yet not all consequences of these symmetries are fully appreciated, as they are sometimes hidden in mathematical detail. Here, we propose a method to reason about these symmetries directly by visual inspection of the life cycle graph that corresponds to the matrix model. We present two applications of this method, one in ecology and one in evolution. First, we prove several conjectures about elasticities that were obtained from purely numerical results and that can support population managers in decision-making under scarce demographic information. Second, we show how to identify candidates for invariant trade-offs in evolutionary optimal life cycles. The method extends to the elasticity analysis of non-dominant eigenvalues, of the stochastic growth rate and, in next-generation matrices, of the basic reproduction number.

Maternally derived hormones, neurosteroids and the development of behaviour

In a wide range of taxa, there is evidence that mothers adaptively shape the development of offspring behaviour by exposing them to steroids. These maternal effects have major implications for fitness because, by shaping early development, they can permanently alter how offspring interact with their environment. However, theory on parent-offspring conflict and recent physiological studies showing that embryos rapidly metabolize maternal steroids have placed doubt on the adaptive significance of these hormone-mediated maternal effects. Reconciling these disparate perspectives requires a mechanistic understanding of the pathways by which maternal steroids can influence neural development. Here, we highlight recent advances in developmental neurobiology and psychiatric pharmacology to show that maternal steroid metabolites can have direct neuro-modulatory effects potentially shaping the development of neural circuitry underlying ecologically relevant behavioural traits. The recognition that maternal steroids can act through a neurosteroid pathway has critical implications for our understanding of the ecology and evolution of steroid-based maternal effects. Overall, compared to the classic view, a neurosteroid mechanism may reduce the evolutionary lability of hormone-mediated maternal effects owing to increased pleiotropic constraints and frequently influence long-term behavioural phenotypes in offspring.

The Net Effect of Functional Traits on Fitness

Generalizing the effect of traits on performance across species may be achievable if traits explain variation in population fitness. However, testing relationships between traits and vital rates to infer effects on fitness can be misleading. Demographic trade-offs can generate variation in vital rates that yield equal population growth rates, thereby obscuring the net effect of traits on fitness. To address this problem, we describe a diversity of approaches to quantify intrinsic growth rates of plant populations, including experiments beyond range boundaries, density-dependent population models built from long-term demographic data, theoretical models, and methods that leverage widely available monitoring data. Linking plant traits directly to intrinsic growth rates is a fundamental step toward rigorous predictions of population dynamics and community assembly.

On the use of the coefficient of variation to quantify and compare trait variation

Meaningful comparison of variation in quantitative trait requires controlling for both the dimension of the varying entity and the dimension of the factor generating variation. Although the coefficient of variation (CV; standard deviation divided by the mean) is often used to measure and compare variation of quantitative traits, it only accounts for the dimension of the former, and its use for comparing variation may sometimes be inappropriate. Here, we discuss the use of the CV to compare measures of evolvability and phenotypic plasticity, two variational properties of quantitative traits. Using a dimensional analysis, we show that contrary to evolvability, phenotypic plasticity cannot be meaningfully compared across traits and environments by mean‐scaling trait variation. We further emphasize the need of remaining cognizant of the dimensions of the traits and the relationship between mean and standard deviation when comparing CVs, even when the scales on which traits are expressed allow meaningful calculation of the CV.

Experimental migration upward in elevation is associated with strong selection on life history traits

One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up-slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high-elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower-elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up-slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower-elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up-slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower-elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change.

Stabilizing selection and adaptive evolution in a combination of two traits in an arctic ungulate

Stabilizing selection is thought to be common in wild populations and act as one of the main evolutionary mechanisms, which constrain phenotypic variation. When multiple traits interact to create a combined phenotype, correlational selection may be an important process driving adaptive evolution. Here, we report on phenotypic selection and evolutionary changes in two natal traits in a semidomestic population of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in northern Finland. The population has been closely monitored since 1969, and detailed data have been collected on individuals since they were born. Over the length of the study period (1969-2015), we found directional and stabilizing selection toward a combination of earlier birth date and heavier birth mass with an intermediate optimum along the major axis of the selection surface. In addition, we demonstrate significant changes in mean traits toward earlier birth date and heavier birth mass, with corresponding genetic changes in breeding values during the study period. Our results demonstrate evolutionary changes in a combination of two traits, which agree closely with estimated patterns of phenotypic selection. Knowledge of the selective surface for combinations of genetically correlated traits are vital to predict how population mean phenotypes and fitness are affected when environments change.

On the evolution of carry-over effects

The environment experienced early in life often affects the traits that are developed after an individual has transitioned into new life stages and environments. Because the phenotypes induced by earlier environments are then screened by later ones, these 'carry-over effects' influence fitness outcomes across the entire life cycle. While the last two decades have witnessed an explosion of studies documenting the occurrence of carry-over effects, little attention has been given to how they adapt and diversify. To aid future research in this area, we present a framework for the evolution of carry-over effects. Carry-over effects can evolve in two ways. First, the expression of traits later in life may become more or less dependent on the developmental processes of earlier stages (e.g., 'adaptive decoupling'). Genetic correlations between life stages then either strengthen or weaken. Alternatively, those influential developmental processes that begin early in life may become more or less sensitive to that earlier environment. Here, plasticity changes in all the traits that share those developmental pathways across the whole life cycle. Adaptive evolution of a carry-over effect is governed by selection on the induced phenotypes in the later stage, and also by selection on any developmentally linked traits in the earlier life stage. When these selective pressures conflict, the evolution of the carry-over effect will be biased towards maximizing performance in the life stage with stronger selection. Because life stages often contribute unequally to total fitness, the strength of selection in any one stage depends on: (a) the relationship between the traits and the stage-specific fitness components (e.g., juvenile survival, adult mating success), and (b) the reproductive value of the life stage. Considering the evolution of carry-over effects reveals several intriguing features of the evolution of life histories and phenotypic plasticity more generally. For instance, carry-over effects that manifest as maladaptive plasticity in one life stage may represent an adaptive strategy for maximizing fitness in stages with stronger selection. Additionally, adaptation to novel environments encountered early in the life cycle may be faster in the presence of carry-over effects that influence sexually selected traits.

Fitness of an allopolyploid rupicolous fern compared with its diploid progenitors: from sporogenesis to sporophyte formation

PREMISE

When two populations of related cytotypes grow in sympatry, the rarer cytotype tends to be excluded due to a frequency-dependent mating disadvantage. Evolutionary models predict that polyploids, which are typically the rarer cytotype upon first formation, should have higher relative fitness and/or higher selfing rates to establish and then coexist with diploid parents.

METHODS

Performance during early recruitment was compared among three co-occurring rupicolous fern species: the allotetraploid Cheilanthes tinaei and its diploid ancestors, C. hispanica and C. maderensis. In culture experiments, fresh spores and samples of soil spore banks were tested for variation among cytotypes in germination, survival, fecundity, and mating system of gametophytes.

RESULTS

Compared with its diploid parents, C. tinaei fresh spores had higher abortion percentages, lower dispersal ability as a result of its larger spores, and similar vigor at germination. For gametophytes from soil spore banks, C. tinaei had high survival similar to C. maderensis, but its sex expression resembled that of C. hispanica, with a high proportion of males. Patterns of sporophyte formation by females and bisexuals indicate that the polyploid does not have an increased gametophytic selfing rate. Gametophytes were larger in C. tinaei, but its reproductive success (sporophyte formation) was intermediate relative to diploids.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show no evidence of higher selfing or fitness advantage of the allopolyploid over both diploid parents at any stage of early recruitment. These two unexpected findings suggest that further factors, such as niche differentiation, play a more important role in cytotype coexistence.

Delivering the promises of trait-based approaches to the needs of demographic approaches, and vice versa

Few facets of biology vary more than functional traits and life-history traits. To explore this vast variation, functional ecologists and population ecologists have developed independent approaches that identify the mechanisms behind and consequences of trait variation.Collaborative research between researchers using trait-based and demographic approaches remains scarce. We argue that this is a missed opportunity, as the strengths of both approaches could help boost the research agendas of functional ecology and population ecology.This special feature, which spans three journals of the British Ecological Society due to its interdisciplinary nature, showcases state-of-the-art research applying trait-based and demographic approaches to examine relationships between organismal function, life history strategies and population performance across multiple kingdoms. Examples include the exploration of how functional trait × environment interactions affect vital rates and thus explain population trends and species occurrence; the coordination of seed traits and dispersal ability with the pace of life in plants; the incorporation of functional traits in dynamic energy budget models; or the discovery of linkages between microbial functional traits and the fast-slow continuum.Despite their historical isolation, collaborative work between functional ecologists and population ecologists could unlock novel research pathways. We call for an integrative research agenda to evaluate which and when traits are functional, as well as their ability to describe and predict life history strategies and population dynamics. We highlight promising, complementary research avenues to overcome current limitations. These include a more explicit linkage of selection gradients in the context of functional trait-vital rate relationships, and the implementation of standardised protocols to track changes in traits and vital rates over time at the same location and individuals, thus allowing for the explicit incorporation of trade-offs in analyses of covariation of functional traits and life-history traits.

Trade-offs between larval survival and adult ornament development depend on predator regime in a territorial dragonfly

Trade-offs between juvenile survival and the development of sexually selected traits can cause ontogenetic conflict between life stages that constrains adaptive evolution. However, the potential for ecological interactions to alter the presence or strength of these trade-offs remains largely unexplored. Antagonistic selection over the accumulation and storage of resources could be one common cause of environment-specific trade-offs between life stages: higher condition may simultaneously enhance adult ornament development and increase juvenile vulnerability to predators. We tested this hypothesis in an ornamented dragonfly (Pachydiplax longipennis). Higher larval body condition indeed enhanced the initial development of its intrasexually selected wing coloration, but was opposed by viability selection in the presence of large aeshnid predators. In contrast, viability selection did not oppose larval body condition in pools when aeshnids were absent, and was not affected when we manipulated cannibalism risk. Trade-offs between larval survival and ornament development, mediated through the conflicting effects of body condition, therefore occurred only under high predation risk. We additionally characterized how body condition influences several traits associated with predator avoidance. Although body condition did not affect burst distance, it did increase larval abdomen size, potentially making larvae easier targets for aeshnid predators. As high body condition similarly increases vulnerability to predators in many other animals, predator-mediated costs of juvenile resource accumulation could be a common, environment-specific limitation on the elaboration of sexually selected traits.

Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments

Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life‐history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within‐individual and among‐individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life‐history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal‐tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within‐population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year‐round residence, generating diverse forms of ‘partial migration’ spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year‐round residence, and are commonplace in nature.

Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio‐temporal population dynamics, we define a ‘partially migratory meta‐population’ system as a spatially structured set of locations that can be occupied by different sets of resident and migrant individuals in different seasons, and where locations that can support reproduction can also be linked by dispersal. We outline key forms of within‐individual and among‐individual variation and structure in migration that could arise within such systems and interact with variation in individual survival, reproduction and dispersal to create complex population dynamics and evolutionary responses across locations, seasons, years and generations. Third, we review approaches by which population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary models could be developed to test hypotheses regarding the dynamics and persistence of partially migratory meta‐populations given diverse forms of seasonal environmental variation and change, and to forecast system‐specific dynamics. To demonstrate one such approach, we use an evolutionary individual‐based model to illustrate that multiple forms of partial migration can readily co‐exist in a simple spatially structured landscape. Finally, we summarise recent empirical studies that demonstrate key components of demographic structure in partial migration, and demonstrate diverse associations with reproduction and survival. We thereby identify key theoretical and empirical knowledge gaps that remain, and consider multiple complementary approaches by which these gaps can be filled in order to elucidate population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary responses to spatio‐temporal seasonal environmental variation and change.

Integrating plant ecological responses to climate extremes from individual to ecosystem levels

Climate extremes will elicit responses from the individual to the ecosystem level. However, only recently have ecologists begun to synthetically assess responses to climate extremes across multiple levels of ecological organization. We review the literature to examine how plant responses vary and interact across levels of organization, focusing on how individual, population and community responses may inform ecosystem-level responses in herbaceous and forest plant communities. We report a high degree of variability at the individual level, and a consequential inconsistency in the translation of individual or population responses to directional changes in community- or ecosystem-level processes. The scaling of individual or population responses to community or ecosystem responses is often predicated upon the functional identity of the species in the community, in particular, the dominant species. Furthermore, the reported stability in plant community composition and functioning with respect to extremes is often driven by processes that operate at the community level, such as species niche partitioning and compensatory responses during or after the event. Future research efforts would benefit from assessing ecological responses across multiple levels of organization, as this will provide both a holistic and mechanistic understanding of ecosystem responses to increasing climatic variability.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Assessing the effects of hybridization and precipitation on invasive weed demography using strength of selection on vital rates

Background

As global climate change transforms average temperature and rainfall, species distributions may meet, increasing the potential for hybridization and altering individual fitness and population growth. Altered rainfall specifically may shift the strength and direction of selection, also manipulating population trajectories. Here, we investigated the role of interspecific hybridization and selection imposed by rainfall on the evolution of weedy life-history in non-hybrid (Raphanus raphanistrum) and hybrid (R. raphanistrum x R. sativus) populations using a life table response experiment.

Results

In documenting long-term population dynamics, we determined intrinsic (r) and asymptotic (λ) population growth rates and sensitivities, a measure of selection imposed on demographic rates. Hybrid populations experienced 8.7-10.3 times stronger selection than wild populations for increased seedling survival. Whereas crop populations generally exhibit little dormancy and wild populations often exhibit dormancy, non-hybrid populations experienced 10% stronger selection than hybrid populations for exhibiting seed dormancy. Selection on survival-to-flowering in wild, not hybrid, populations declined marginally with increasing soil moisture. Hybrid populations exhibited greater r, but not λ, than wild populations regardless of moisture environment. In general, fecundity contributed most to differences in λ but fecundity only contributed positively to hybrid λ relative to wild λ when precipitation was altered (either higher or lower than control) and not under control watering conditions.

Conclusions

Selection on key demographic traits may not change dramatically in response to rainfall, and hybridization may more strongly influence the demography of these weedy species than rainfall. If hybrid populations can respond to selection for increased dormancy, this may make it more difficult to deplete weed seed banks and increase the persistence of crop genes in weed populations.

Harvest-induced phenotypic selection in an island population of moose, Alces alces

Empirical evidence strongly indicates that human exploitation has frequently led to rapid evolutionary changes in wild populations, yet the mechanisms involved are often poorly understood. Here, we applied a recently developed demographic framework for analyzing selection to data from a 20-year study of a wild population of moose, Alces alces. In this population, a genetic pedigree has been established all the way back to founders. We demonstrate harvest-induced directional selection for delayed birth dates in males and reduced body mass as calf in females. During the study period, birth date was delayed by 0.81 days per year for both sexes, whereas no significant changes occurred in calf body mass. Quantitative genetic analyses indicated that both traits harbored significant additive genetic variance. These results show that selective harvesting can induce strong selection that oppose natural selection. This may cause evolution of less favorable phenotypes that become maladaptive once harvesting ceases.

Prioritizing management actions for invasive populations using cost, efficacy, demography and expert opinion for 14 plant species world-wide

Management of invasive populations is typically investigated case-by-case. Comparative approaches have been applied to single aspects of management, such as demography, with cost or efficacy rarely incorporated.We present an analysis of the ranks of management actions for 14 species in five countries that extends beyond the use of demography alone to include multiple metrics for ranking management actions, which integrate cost, efficacy and demography (cost-effectiveness) and managers' expert opinion of ranks. We use content analysis of manager surveys to assess the multiple criteria managers use to rank management strategies.Analysis of the matrix models for managed populations showed that all management actions led to reductions in population growth rate (λ), with a median 48% reduction in λ across all management units; however, only 66% of the actions led to declining populations (λ < 1).Each management action ranked by cost-effectiveness and cost had a unique rank; however, elasticity ranks were often tied, providing less discrimination among management actions. Ranking management actions by cost alone aligned well with cost-effectiveness ranks and demographic elasticity ranks were also well aligned with cost-effectiveness. In contrast, efficacy ranks were aligned with managers' ranks and managers identified efficacy and demography as important. 80% of managers identified off-target effects of management as important, which was not captured using any of the other metrics. Synthesis and applications. A multidimensional view of the benefits and costs of management options provides a range of single and integrated metrics. These rankings, and the relationships between them, can be used to assess management actions for invasive plants. The integrated cost-effectiveness approach goes well 'beyond demography' and provides additional information for managers; however, cost-effectiveness needs to be augmented with information on off-target effects and social impacts of management in order to provide greater benefits for on-the-ground management.

Flowering schedule in a perennial plant; life-history trade-offs, seed predation, and total offspring fitness

Optimal timing of reproduction within a season may be influenced by several abiotic and biotic factors. These factors sometimes affect different components of fitness, making assessments of net selection difficult. We used estimates of offspring fitness to examine how pre-dispersal seed predation influences selection on flowering schedule in an herb with a bimodal flowering pattern, Actaea spicata. Within individuals, seeds from flowers on early terminal inflorescences had a higher germination rate and produced larger seedlings than seeds from flowers on late basal inflorescences. Reproductive value, estimated using demographic integral projection models and accounting for size-dependent differences in future performance, was two times higher for intact seeds from early flowers than for seeds from late flowers. Fruits from late flowers were, however, much more likely to escape seed predation than fruits from early flowers. Reproductive values of early and late flowers balanced at a predation intensity of 63%. Across 15 natural populations, the strength of selection for allocation to late flowers was positively correlated with mean seed predation intensity. Our results suggest that the optimal shape of the flowering schedule, in terms of the allocation between early and late flowers, is determined by the trade-off between offspring number and quality, and that variation in antagonistic interactions among populations influences the balancing of this trade-off. At the same time they illustrate that phenotypic selection analyses that fail to account for differences in offspring fitness might be misleading.

Influence of life-history tactics on transient dynamics: a comparative analysis across mammalian populations

Most mammalian populations suffer from natural or human-induced disturbances; populations are no longer at the equilibrium (i.e., at stable [st]age distribution) and exhibit transient dynamics. From a literature survey, we studied patterns of transient dynamics for mammalian species spanning a large range of life-history tactics and population growth rates. For each population, we built an age-structured matrix and calculated six metrics of transient dynamics. After controlling for possible confounding effects of the phylogenetic relatedness among species using a phylogenetic principal component analysis and phylogenetic generalized least squares models, we found that short-term demographic responses of mammalian populations to disturbance are shaped by generation time and growth rate. Species with a slow pace of life (i.e., species with a late maturity, a low fecundity, and a long life span) displayed decreases in population size after a disturbance, whereas fast-living species increased in population size. The magnitude of short-term variation in population size increased with asymptotic population growth, being buffered in slow-growing species (i.e., species with a low population growth rate) but large in fast-growing species. By demonstrating direct links between transient dynamics, life history (generation time), and ecology (demographic regime), our comparative analysis of transient dynamics clearly improves our understanding of population dynamics in variable environments and has clear implications for future studies of the interplay between evolutionary and ecological dynamics. As most populations in the wild are not at equilibrium, we recommend that analyses of transient dynamics be performed when studying population dynamics in variable environments.

Selection and evolution of causally covarying traits

When traits cause variation in fitness, the distribution of phenotype, weighted by fitness, necessarily changes. The degree to which traits cause fitness variation is therefore of central importance to evolutionary biology. Multivariate selection gradients are the main quantity used to describe components of trait-fitness covariation, but they quantify the direct effects of traits on (relative) fitness, which are not necessarily the total effects of traits on fitness. Despite considerable use in evolutionary ecology, path analytic characterizations of the total effects of traits on fitness have not been formally incorporated into quantitative genetic theory. By formally defining "extended" selection gradients, which are the total effects of traits on fitness, as opposed to the existing definition of selection gradients, a more intuitive scheme for characterizing selection is obtained. Extended selection gradients are distinct quantities, differing from the standard definition of selection gradients not only in the statistical means by which they may be assessed and the assumptions required for their estimation from observational data, but also in their fundamental biological meaning. Like direct selection gradients, extended selection gradients can be combined with genetic inference of multivariate phenotypic variation to provide quantitative prediction of microevolutionary trajectories.

Phenotypic variation and selective mortality as major drivers of recruitment variability in fishes

An individual's phenotype will usually influence its probability of survival. However, when evaluating the dynamics of populations, the role of selective mortality is not always clear. Not all mortality is selective, patterns of selective mortality may vary, and it is often unknown how selective mortality compares or interacts with other sources of mortality. As a result, there is seldom a clear expectation for how changes in the phenotypic composition of populations will translate into differences in average survival. We address these issues by evaluating how selective mortality affects recruitment of fish populations. First, we provide a quantitative review of selective mortality. Our results show that most of the mortality during early life is selective, and that variation in phenotypes can have large effects on survival. Next, we describe an analytical framework that accounts for variation in selection, while also describing the amount of selective mortality experienced by different cohorts recruiting to a single population. This framework is based on reconstructing fitness surfaces from phenotypic selection measurements, and can be employed for either single or multiple traits. Finally, we show how this framework can be integrated with models of density-dependent survival to improve our understanding of recruitment variability and population dynamics.

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these-usually correlative-approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.

Evolutionary rescue in vertebrates: evidence, applications and uncertainty

The current rapid rate of human-driven environmental change presents wild populations with novel conditions and stresses. Theory and experimental evidence for evolutionary rescue present a promising case for species facing environmental change persisting via adaptation. Here, we assess the potential for evolutionary rescue in wild vertebrates. Available information on evolutionary rescue was rare and restricted to abundant and highly fecund species that faced severe intentional anthropogenic selective pressures. However, examples from adaptive tracking in common species and genetic rescues in species of conservation concern provide convincing evidence in favour of the mechanisms of evolutionary rescue. We conclude that low population size, long generation times and limited genetic variability will result in evolutionary rescue occurring rarely for endangered species without intervention. Owing to the risks presented by current environmental change and the possibility of evolutionary rescue in nature, we suggest means to study evolutionary rescue by mapping genotype → phenotype → demography → fitness relationships, and priorities for applying evolutionary rescue to wild populations.

Phenotypic plasticity in evolutionary rescue experiments

Population persistence in a new and stressful environment can be influenced by the plastic phenotypic responses of individuals to this environment, and by the genetic evolution of plasticity itself. This process has recently been investigated theoretically, but testing the quantitative predictions in the wild is challenging because (i) there are usually not enough population replicates to deal with the stochasticity of the evolutionary process, (ii) environmental conditions are not controlled, and (iii) measuring selection and the inheritance of traits affecting fitness is difficult in natural populations. As an alternative, predictions from theory can be tested in the laboratory with controlled experiments. To illustrate the feasibility of this approach, we briefly review the literature on the experimental evolution of plasticity, and on evolutionary rescue in the laboratory, paying particular attention to differences and similarities between microbes and multicellular eukaryotes. We then highlight a set of questions that could be addressed using this framework, which would enable testing the robustness of theoretical predictions, and provide new insights into areas that have received little theoretical attention to date.

Genetic analysis of life-history constraint and evolution in a wild ungulate population

Trade-offs among life-history traits are central to evolutionary theory. In quantitative genetic terms, trade-offs may be manifested as negative genetic covariances relative to the direction of selection on phenotypic traits. Although the expression and selection of ecologically important phenotypic variation are fundamentally multivariate phenomena, the in situ quantification of genetic covariances is challenging. Even for life-history traits, where well-developed theory exists with which to relate phenotypic variation to fitness variation, little evidence exists from in situ studies that negative genetic covariances are an important aspect of the genetic architecture of life-history traits. In fact, the majority of reported estimates of genetic covariances among life-history traits are positive. Here we apply theory of the genetics and selection of life histories in organisms with complex life cycles to provide a framework for quantifying the contribution of multivariate genetically based relationships among traits to evolutionary constraint. We use a Bayesian framework to link pedigree-based inference of the genetic basis of variation in life-history traits to evolutionary demography theory regarding how life histories are selected. Our results suggest that genetic covariances may be acting to constrain the evolution of female life-history traits in a wild population of red deer Cervus elaphus: genetic covariances are estimated to reduce the rate of adaptation by about 40%, relative to predicted evolutionary change in the absence of genetic covariances. Furthermore, multivariate phenotypic (rather than genetic) relationships among female life-history traits do not reveal this constraint.

Assessing the role of spatial heterogeneity and human movement in malaria dynamics and control

Mathematical models developed for studying malaria dynamics often focus on a single, homogeneous population. However, human movement connects environments with potentially different malaria transmission characteristics. To address the role of human movement and spatial heterogeneity in malaria transmission and malaria control, we consider a simple malaria metapopulation model incorporating two regions, or patches, connected by human movement, with different degrees of malaria transmission in each patch. Using our two-patch model, we calculate and analyze the basic reproduction number, R(0), an epidemiologically important threshold quantity that indicates whether malaria will persist or go extinct in a population. Although R(0) depends on the rates of human movement, we show that R(0) is always bounded between the two quantities R(01) and R(02)-the reproduction numbers for the two patches if isolated. If without migration, the disease is endemic in one patch but not in the other, then the addition of human migration can cause the disease to persist in both patches. This result indicates that regions with low malaria transmission should have an interest in helping to control or eliminate malaria in regions with higher malaria endemicity if human movement connects them. Performing a sensitivity analysis of R(0) and the endemic equilibrium to various parameters in the two-patch model allowed us to determine, under different parameterizations of the model, which patch will be the better target for control measures, and within that patch, what type of control measure should be implemented. In the analysis of R(0), we found that if the extrinsic incubation period is shorter than the average mosquito lifespan, the control measures should be targeted towards reducing the mosquito biting rate. On the other hand, if the extrinsic incubation period is longer than the average mosquito lifespan, control measures targeting the mosquito death rate will be more effective. Intuitively, one might think that resources for malaria control should be allocated to the region with higher malaria transmission. However, our sensitivity analyses indicated that this is not always the case. In fact, if migration into the lower transmission patch is much faster than migration into the higher transmission patch, the lower transmission patch is potentially the better target for malaria control efforts. While human movement between regions poses challenges to malaria control and elimination, if estimates of relevant parameters in the model are known, including migration rates, our results can help inform which region to target and what type of control measure to implement for the greatest success.