Biodiversity in changing environments: An external-driver internal-topology framework to guide intervention

Accompanying the climate crisis is the more enigmatic biodiversity crisis. Rapid reorganization of biodiversity due to global environmental change has defied prediction and tested the basic tenets of conservation and restoration. Conceptual and practical innovation is needed to support decision making in the face of these unprecedented shifts. Critical questions include: How can we generalize biodiversity change at the community level? When are systems able to reorganize and maintain integrity, and when does abiotic change result in collapse or restructuring? How does this understanding provide a template to guide when and how to intervene in conservation and restoration? To this end, we frame changes in community organization as the modulation of external abiotic drivers on the internal topology of species interactions, using plant-plant interactions in terrestrial communities as a starting point. We then explore how this framing can help translate available data on species abundance and trait distributions to corresponding decisions in management. Given the expectation that community response and reorganization are highly complex, the external-driver internal-topology (EDIT) framework offers a way to capture general patterns of biodiversity that can help guide resilience and adaptation in changing environments.

Echoes of the past: Agricultural legacies shape the successional dynamics of protected semi-natural dry grasslands

European semi-natural dry grasslands are among the most endangered terrestrial ecosystems, being recognised as habitats of community interest by the EU Habitats Directive. The occurrence and preservation of these habitats depend on a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors, although little is known regarding the role of past land-use changes. Here, we investigated the role of time since cultivation abandonment as a major driver of grassland successional dynamics in the Mediterranean agro-pastoral system of Alta Murgia, southern Italy. By integrating cartographic information on the past agricultural land-use with the main abiotic constraints (patch area, slope and aspect), we used generalised additive mixed models to test for the probability of occurrence of current grassland habitat types along time since cultivation abandonment (10 to 200 years). Our results disclosed the successional sequence of grassland plant communities since crop abandonment in the study area, highlighting that the distribution of semi-natural grassland communities largely depends on land use history besides current environmental patterns. Among the habitat types protected under the EU Habitats Directive, we highlighted that xero-thermic communities may represent an intermediate step of grassland succession after cultivation abandonment, while more mesic perennial communities indicate a late successional stage. These successional dynamics are further modulated by mesoclimatic conditions associated with slope and aspect, especially in case of long-standing pastures that were not historically affected by agricultural transformations. Our findings can contribute to a deeper understanding of dynamics relevant to spontaneous vegetation recovery in open environments, which is a prerequisite for setting up effective grassland conservation and restoration actions. Furthermore, our results underline the value of integrating historical maps and current information for the assessment of habitat conservation status.

Herbivory limits success of vegetation restoration globally

Restoring vegetation in degraded ecosystems is an increasingly common practice for promoting biodiversity and ecological function, but successful implementation is hampered by an incomplete understanding of the processes that limit restoration success. By synthesizing terrestrial and aquatic studies globally (2594 experimental tests from 610 articles), we reveal substantial herbivore control of vegetation under restoration. Herbivores at restoration sites reduced vegetation abundance more strongly (by 89%, on average) than those at relatively undegraded sites and suppressed, rather than fostered, plant diversity. These effects were particularly pronounced in regions with higher temperatures and lower precipitation. Excluding targeted herbivores temporarily or introducing their predators improved restoration by magnitudes similar to or greater than those achieved by managing plant competition or facilitation. Thus, managing herbivory is a promising strategy for enhancing vegetation restoration efforts.

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of Ageratina adenophora in China using equilibrium occurrence data and ensemble model

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) pose a significant threat to the ecological environment and agricultural production in China. Ageratina adenophora is one of the most aggressive IAPs in China and poses serious ecological and socioeconomic threats. Estimating the distribution pattern of A. adenophora in China can provide baseline data for preventing damage by this weed. In the present study, based on the equilibrium occurrence data of A. adenophora in China and related environmental variables, we used an ensemble model to predict the distribution pattern of A. adenophora in China under climate change. Our findings indicated that true skill statistic (TSS), area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Cohen’s Kappa (KAPPA) values for the ensemble model were 0.925, 0.993, and 0.936, respectively. The prediction results of the ensemble model were more accurate than those of the single models. Temperature variables had a significant impact on the potential geographical distribution (PGD) of A. adenophora in China. The total, high, and moderate suitability habitat areas of A. adenophora in China were 153.82 × 104, 92.13 × 104, and 21.04 × 104 km2, respectively, accounting for 16.02, 9.60, and 2.19% of the Chinese mainland area, respectively. The PGD of A. adenophora in China under the current climate is mainly located in southwestern and southeastern China, which are located in the tropical and subtropical zone. The high-suitability habitat areas of A. adenophora decreased under the future climate scenarios, mainly by changing to moderately suitable habitats in Southwest China. The geographical distribution of A. adenophora in southwestern China is currently saturated and will spread to southeastern China under climate change in the future. More attention should be paid to early warning and monitoring of A. adenophora in southeastern China to prevent its further spread.

Diversity Effects on Canopy Structure Change throughout a Growing Season in Experimental Grassland Communities

Increasing plant diversity commonly enhances standing biomass and other ecosystem functions (i.e., carbon fluxes, water use efficiency, herbivory). The standing biomass is correlated with vegetation volume, which describes plant biomass allocation within a complex canopy structure. As the canopy structure of plant communities is not static throughout time, it is expected that its changes also control diversity effects on ecosystem functioning. Yet, most studies are based on one or two measures of ecosystem function per year. Here, we examine the temporal effects of diversity of grassland communities on canopy structural components in high temporal (bi-weekly throughout the growing season) and spatial resolutions as a proxy for ecosystem functioning. Using terrestrial laser scanning, we estimate metrics of vertical structure, such as biomass distribution (evenness) and highest biomass allocation (center of gravity) along height strata. For horizontal metrics, we calculated community stand gaps and canopy surface variation. Our findings show that species-rich communities start filling the vertical space (evenness) earlier in the growing season, suggesting a more extended period of resource use (i.e., light-harvesting). Moreover, more diverse communities raised their center of gravity only at the peak of biomass in spring, likely triggered by higher interspecific competition inducing higher biomass allocation at upper layers of the canopy. Furthermore, richer communities were clumpier only after mowing, revealing species-specific differences in regrowth. Lastly, species richness strongly affected canopy variation when the phenology status and height differences were maximal, suggesting differences in plant functional strategies (space to grow, resource use, and flowering phenology). Therefore, the effects of diversity on ecosystem functions depending on those structural components such as biomass production, decomposition, and herbivory, may also change throughout the season due to various mechanisms, such as niche differences, increased complementarity, and temporal and spatial variation in biological activity.

Vegetation Dynamics in a Loess Grassland: Plant Traits Indicate Stability Based on Species Presence, but Directional Change When Cover Is Considered

This article evaluates the three-year vegetation dynamics of a species rich, protected steppe grassland on loess where no grazing occurred for decades at Bicske, Central Hungary. A detailed coenological survey of vascular vegetation was conducted in four permanent plots of 16 m² each from 2018 to 2020. Raunkiaer’s life-forms, distribution range, and thousand-seed weight of species were evaluated. Shannon diversity and turnover rates for the species and the vegetation were also determined for each plot. In total, 108 vascular plant species were detected. The results indicate grassland stability when plant traits spectra were based on species presence data, but directional change if species cover values were used to weight trait categories. During the three years of the study, chamaephytes decreased and woody species increased their contribution for the Raunkiaer’s life-forms, while the cosmopolitan group has steadily lost its significance for distribution range types. Shannon diversity varied between 2.46 and 3.18 among plots (based on natural logarithm) and remained statistically unchanged through time. Average species turnover rates were 14.18% for 2018/19 and 17.52% for 2019/20, whereas corresponding values for vegetation turnover rates were 25.83% and 23.28%. Vegetation turnover rate was significantly higher than the species turnover rate.

The long and the short of it: Mechanisms of synchronous and compensatory dynamics across temporal scales

Synchronous dynamics (fluctuations that occur in unison) are universal phenomena with widespread implications for ecological stability. Synchronous dynamics can amplify the destabilizing effect of environmental variability on ecosystem functions such as productivity, whereas the inverse, compensatory dynamics, can stabilize function. Here we combine simulation and empirical analyses to elucidate mechanisms that underlie patterns of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics. In both simulated and empirical communities, we show that synchronous and compensatory dynamics are not mutually exclusive but instead can vary by timescale. Our simulations identify multiple mechanisms that can generate timescale‐specific patterns, including different environmental drivers, diverse life histories, dispersal, and non‐stationary dynamics. We find that traditional metrics for quantifying synchronous dynamics are often biased toward long‐term drivers and may miss the importance of short‐term drivers. Our findings indicate key mechanisms to consider when assessing synchronous versus compensatory dynamics and our approach provides a pathway for disentangling these dynamics in natural systems.

Trait-based filtering mediates the effects of realistic biodiversity losses on ecosystem functioning

Biodiversity losses are a major driver of global changes in ecosystem functioning. While most studies of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning have examined randomized species losses, trait-based filtering associated with species-specific vulnerability to drivers of diversity loss can strongly influence how ecosystem functioning responds to declining biodiversity. Moreover, the responses of ecosystem functioning to diversity loss may be mediated by environmental variability interacting with the suite of traits remaining in depauperate communities. We do not yet understand how communities resulting from realistic diversity losses (filtered by response traits) influence ecosystem functioning (via effect traits of the remaining community), especially under variable environmental conditions. Here, we directly test how realistic and randomized plant diversity losses influence productivity and invasion resistance across multiple years in a California grassland. Compared with communities based on randomized diversity losses, communities resulting from realistic (drought-driven) species losses had higher invasion resistance under climatic conditions that matched the trait-based filtering they experienced. However, productivity declined more with realistic than with randomized species losses across all years, regardless of climatic conditions. Functional response traits aligned with effect traits for productivity but not for invasion resistance. Our findings illustrate that the effects of biodiversity losses depend not only on the identities of lost species but also on how the traits of remaining species interact with varying environmental conditions. Understanding the consequences of biodiversity change requires studies that evaluate trait-mediated effects of species losses and incorporate the increasingly variable climatic conditions that future communities are expected to experience.

Measuring change in biological communities: multivariate analysis approaches for temporal datasets with low sample size

Effective and robust ways to describe, quantify, analyse, and test for change in the structure of biological communities over time are essential if ecological research is to contribute substantively towards understanding and managing responses to ongoing environmental changes. Structural changes reflect population dynamics, changes in biomass and relative abundances of taxa, and colonisation and extinction events observed in samples collected through time. Most previous studies of temporal changes in the multivariate datasets that characterise biological communities are based on short time series that are not amenable to data-hungry methods such as multivariate generalised linear models. Here, we present a roadmap for the analysis of temporal change in short-time-series, multivariate, ecological datasets. We discuss appropriate methods and important considerations for using them such as sample size, assumptions, and statistical power. We illustrate these methods with four case-studies analysed using the R data analysis environment.

Social and Ecological Dimensions of Urban Conservation Grasslands and Their Management through Prescribed Burning and Woody Vegetation Removal

Natural grasslands are threatened globally. In south-eastern Australia, remnants of critically endangered natural grasslands are increasingly being isolated in urban areas. Urbanisation has led to reduced fire frequency and woody plant encroachment in some patches. Grasslands are currently being managed under the assumption that desirable management actions to address these threats (prescribed burning and removing woody vegetation) (1) lead to improved conservation outcomes and (2) are restricted by negative public attitudes. In this study, we tested these two assumptions in the context of native grassland conservation reserves in Melbourne, Australia. Firstly, we investigated differences in species and functional trait composition between patches that had been recently burnt, patches that were unburnt and patches subject to woody vegetation encroachment. We found that the functional traits of species converged in areas subject to woody plant encroachment and areas frequently disturbed by fire. Burning promoted native species, and patches of woody plants supressed the dominant grass, providing a wider range of habitat conditions. Secondly, we surveyed 477 residents living adjacent to these grassland conservation reserves to measure values, beliefs and attitudes and the acceptance of prescribed burning and removing woody vegetation. We found conflict in people’s attitudes to grasslands, with both strongly positive and strongly negative attitudes expressed. The majority of residents found prescribed burning an acceptable management practice (contrary to expectations) and removing trees and shrubs from grasslands to be unacceptable. Both cognitive factors (values and beliefs) and landscape features were important in influencing these opinions. This research provides some guidance for managing urban grassland reserves as a social–ecological system, showing that ecological management, community education and engagement and landscape design features can be integrated to influence social and ecological outcomes.

Tradeoffs in demographic mechanisms underlie differences in species abundance and stability

Understanding why some species are common and others are rare is a central question in ecology, and is critical for developing conservation strategies under global change. Rare species are typically considered to be more prone to extinction—but the fact they are rare can impede a general understanding of rarity vs. abundance. Here we develop and empirically test a framework to predict species abundances and stability using mechanisms governing population dynamics. Our results demonstrate that coexisting species with similar abundances can be shaped by different mechanisms (specifically, higher growth rates when rare vs. weaker negative density-dependence). Further, these dynamics influence population stability: species with higher intrinsic growth rates but stronger negative density-dependence were more stable and less sensitive to climate variability, regardless of abundance. This suggests that underlying mechanisms governing population dynamics, in addition to population size, may be critical indicators of population stability in an increasingly variable world.

Protection of rare species requires advanced understanding of the reasons for their rarity. Here, Hallett et al. show that potential growth rate and density dependence together predict rarity vs. abundance, and that the stability of species of similar sizes depends on the relative strength of these two mechanisms.

Testing the trait-based community framework: Do functional traits predict competitive outcomes?

Plant traits can be used to understand a range of ecological processes, including competition with invasive species. The extent to which native and invasive species are competing via limiting similarity or trait hierarchies has important implications for the management of invaded communities. We screened 47 native species that co-occur with Festuca perennis, a dominant invader in California serpentine grassland, for traits pertaining to resource use and acquisition. We then grew F. perennis with 10 species spanning a range of functional similarity in pairwise competition trials. Functionally similar species did not have a strong adverse effect on F. perennis performance as would be expected by limiting similarity theory. Phylogenetic relatedness, which may integrate a number of functional traits, was also a poor predictor of competitive outcome. Instead, species with high specific root length, low root-to-shoot biomass ratio, and low leaf nitrogen concentration were more effective at suppressing the growth of F. perennis. Our results suggest that fitness differences (i.e., trait hierarchies) may be more important than niche differences (i.e., limiting similarity) in structuring competitive outcomes in this system and may be a promising approach for the restoration of invaded systems.

Beneficial effects of restoration practices can be thwarted by climate extremes

The impacts of climate extremes on species, communities and ecosystems have become critical concerns to science and society. Under a changing climate, how restoration outcomes are affected by extreme climate variables is a largely unknown topic. We analyzed the effects of experimental factors (grazing and sowing of native species), extreme climate events (intense precipitation and extreme temperatures indexes) and their combination on the restoration progress of a dry, calcareous grassland in Tuscany (Italy) with a 1 year before/15 years continuous annual monitoring after, control/impact (BACI) experiment. Grazing had a beneficial effect on the diversity of the grassland, while sowing had a limited impact. The climatic index that most affected the entire plant community composition was the number of very heavy precipitation days. The interaction of grazing and extreme climatic indexes had a significant detrimental effect on restoration outcomes, increasing the cover of synanthropic and Cosmopolitan-Subcosmopolitan generalist species and decreasing the cover of more valuable species such endemic species. In the richest grazed plots, species richness showed a lower sensitivity to the average precipitation per wet day but in grazed site, restoration outcomes can be negatively influenced by the intensification of precipitation and temperature extremes. In a context of progressive tropicalization of the Mediterranean area, to assist managers setting achievable restoration goals, restoration practitioners should consider that climate extremes might interfere with the beneficial effects of restoration practices.

Ecological drift and the distribution of species diversity

Ecological drift causes species abundances to fluctuate randomly, lowering diversity within communities and increasing differences among otherwise equivalent communities. Despite broad interest in ecological drift, ecologists have little experimental evidence of its consequences in nature, where competitive forces modulate species abundances. We manipulated drift by imposing 40-fold variation in the size of experimentally assembled annual plant communities and holding their edge-to-interior ratios comparable. Drift over three generations was greater than predicted by neutral models, causing high extinction rates and fast divergence in composition among smaller communities. Competitive asymmetries drove populations of most species to small enough sizes that demographic stochasticity could markedly influence dynamics, increasing the importance of drift in communities. The strong effects of drift occurred despite stabilizing niche differences, which cause species to have greater population growth rates when at low local abundance. Overall, the importance of ecological drift appears greater in non-neutral communities than previously recognized, and varies with community size and the type and strength of density dependence.

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology-the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.

Conserving reptiles within a multiple-use landscape: determining habitat affiliations of reptile communities in the northern jarrah forest of south-western Australia

Disturbed landscapes can provide habitat for a variety of species; however, for fauna, a strong understanding of their habitat affiliations is critical both to detect species and to develop management prescriptions to maintain their populations. We assessed habitat affiliations of common, uncommon and rare reptile species in a multiple-use landscape, the northern jarrah forest of south-western Australia. To identify predictors of reptile occurrence, we related reptile presence/absence, or relative abundance, to habitat, climatic and seasonal variables. Because the reptiles studied have cryptic behaviours and low numbers of detections, we used a combination of analyses including non-metric multi-dimensional scaling, occupancy and regression models. We identified specific habitat affiliations for the most common species and potential linkages with vegetation structure for most uncommon species. There were insufficient detections to determine habitat affiliations accurately for most rare species. Often species were detected too infrequently to determine specific habitat variables that influence occupancy and detection, and altering survey time and scale may increase detections so that habitat affiliations can be determined. However, in highly speciose landscapes, like our study area, we may not be able to wait until we have enough detections to define the habitat affiliations of all reptiles before we make management decisions. Therefore management activities that maintain habitat heterogeneity and complexity is likely to be the best strategy to conserve the most reptile species.

Grassland responses to increased rainfall depend on the timescale of forcing

Forecasting impacts of future climate change is an important challenge to biologists, both for understanding the consequences of different emissions trajectories and for developing adaptation measures that will minimize biodiversity loss. Existing variation provides a window into the effects of climate on species and ecosystems, but in many places does not encompass the levels or timeframes of forcing expected under directional climatic change. Experiments help us to fill in these uncertainties, simulating directional shifts to examine outcomes of new levels and sustained changes in conditions. Here, we explore the translation between short-term responses to climate variability and longer-term trajectories that emerge under directional climatic change. In a decade-long experiment, we compare effects of short-term and long-term forcings across three trophic levels in grassland plots subjected to natural and experimental variation in precipitation. For some biological responses (plant productivity), responses to long-term extension of the rainy season were consistent with short-term responses, while for others (plant species richness, abundance of invertebrate herbivores and predators), there was pronounced divergence of long-term trajectories from short-term responses. These differences between biological responses mean that sustained directional changes in climate can restructure ecological relationships characterizing a system. Importantly, a positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity turned negative under one scenario of climate change, with a similar change in the relationship between plant productivity and consumer biomass. Inferences from experiments such as this form an important part of wider efforts to understand the complexities of climate change responses.

Response of a Wild Edible Plant to Human Disturbance: Harvesting Can Enhance the Subsequent Yield of Bamboo Shoots

Wild edible plants, ecological foodstuffs obtained from forest ecosystems, grow in natural fields, and their productivity depends on their response to harvesting by humans. Addressing exactly how wild edible plants respond to harvesting is critical because this knowledge will provide insights into how to obtain effective and sustainable ecosystem services from these plants. We focused on bamboo shoots of Sasa kurilensis, a popular wild edible plant in Japan. We examined the effects of harvesting on bamboo shoot productivity by conducting an experimental manipulation of bamboo shoot harvesting. Twenty experimental plots were prepared in the Teshio Experimental Forest of Hokkaido University and were assigned into two groups: a harvest treatment, in which newly emerged edible bamboo shoots were harvested (n = 10); and a control treatment, in which bamboo shoots were maintained without harvesting (n = 10). In the first year of harvesting (2013), bamboo shoot productivities were examined twice; i.e., the productivity one day after harvesting and the subsequent post-harvest productivity (2–46 days after harvesting), and we observed no difference in productivity between treatments. This means that there was no difference in original bamboo shoot productivity between treatments, and that harvesting did not influence productivity in the initial year. In contrast, in the following year (2014), the number of bamboo shoots in the harvested plots was 2.4-fold greater than in the control plots. These results indicate that over-compensatory growth occurred in the harvested plots in the year following harvesting. Whereas previous research has emphasized the negative impact of harvesting, this study provides the first experimental evidence that harvesting can enhance the productivity of a wild edible plant. This suggests that exploiting compensatory growth, which really amounts to less of a decline in productivity, may be s a key for the effective use of wild edible plants.

Long term prevention of disturbance induces the collapse of a dominant species without altering ecosystem function

Limitation of disturbances, such as grazing and fire, is a key tool for nature reserve management and ecological restoration. While the role of these disturbances in shaping ecosystem structure and functioning has been intensively studied, less is known about the consequences of long-term prevention of grazing and fire. Based on a 31-year study, we show that relative biomass of the dominant grass, Leymus chinensis, of grasslands in northern China declined dramatically, but only after 21 years of exclusion of fire and grazing. However, aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) did not decline accordingly due to compensatory responses of several subdominant grass species. The decline in dominance of L. chinensis was not related to gradually changing climate during the same period, whereas experimentally imposed litter removal (simulating fire), mowing (simulating grazing), fire and moderate grazing enhanced dominance of L. chinensis significantly. Thus, our findings show that disturbances can be critical to maintain the dominance of key grass species in semiarid grassland, but that the collapse of a dominant species does not necessarily result in significant change in ANPP if there are species in the community capable of compensating for loss of a dominant.

Grazing maintains native plant diversity and promotes community stability in an annual grassland

Maintaining native biodiversity in grasslands requires management and mitigation of anthropogenic changes that have altered resource availability, grazing regimes, and community composition. In California (USA), high levels of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition have facilitated the invasion of exotic grasses, posing a threat to the diverse plant and insect communities endemic to serpentine grasslands. Cattle grazing has been employed to mitigate the consequences of exotic grass invasion, but the ecological effects of grazing in this system are not fully understood. To characterize the effects of realistic N deposition on serpentine plant communities and to evaluate the efficacy of grazing as a management tool, we performed a factorial experiment adding N and excluding large herbivores in California's largest serpentine grassland. Although we observed significant interannual variation in community composition related to climate in our six-year study, exotic cover was consistently and negatively correlated with native plant richness. Sustained low-level N addition did not influence plant community composition, but grazing reduced grass abundance while maintaining greater native forb cover, native plant diversity, and species richness in comparison to plots excluding large herbivores. Furthermore, grazing increased the temporal stability of plant communities by decreasing year-to-year variation in native forb cover, native plant diversity, and native species richness. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that moderate-intensity cattle grazing can be used to restrict the invasive potential of exotic grasses and maintain native plant communities in serpentine grasslands. We hypothesize that the reduced temporal variability in serpentine plant communities managed by grazing may directly benefit populations of the threatened Edith's Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis).

Biotic mechanisms of community stability shift along a precipitation gradient

Understanding how biotic mechanisms confer stability in variable environments is a fundamental quest in ecology, and one that is becoming increasingly urgent with global change. Several mechanisms, notably a portfolio effect associated with species richness, compensatory dynamics generated by negative species covariance and selection for stable dominant species populations can increase the stability of the overall community. While the importance of these mechanisms is debated, few studies have contrasted their importance in an environmental context. We analyzed nine long-term data sets of grassland species composition to investigate how two key environmental factors, precipitation amount and variability, may directly influence community stability and how they may indirectly influence stability via biotic mechanisms. We found that the importance of stability mechanisms varied along the environmental gradient: strong negative species covariance occurred in sites characterized by high precipitation variability, whereas portfolio effects increased in sites with high mean annual precipitation. Instead of questioning whether compensatory dynamics are important in nature, our findings suggest that debate should widen to include several stability mechanisms and how these mechanisms vary in importance across environmental gradients.

Exotic plant invasions under enhanced rainfall are constrained by soil nutrients and competition

To predict the net impact of climate change on invasions, it is critical to understand how its effects interact with environmental and biotic context. In a factorial field experiment, we examined how increased late-season rainfall influences the growth and reproductive success of two widespread invasive species (Centaurea solstitialis and Aegilops triuncialis) in heterogeneous Californian grasslands, and, in particular, how its impact depends on habitat type, nutrient addition, and competition with resident species. Rainfall enhancement alone exhibited only weak effects, especially in naturally infertile and relatively uninvaded grasslands. In contrast, watering and fertilization together exhibited highly synergistic effects on both invasive species. However, the benefits of the combined treatment were greatly reduced or offset by the presence of surrounding competitors. Our results highlight the roles of nutrient limitation and biotic resistance by resident competitors in constraining the responses of invasive species to changes in rainfall. In systems with strong environmental control by precipitation, enhanced rainfall may promote invasions mainly under nutrient-rich and disturbed conditions, while having lesser effects on nutrient-poor, native "refuges".

Hidden responses to environmental variation: maternal effects reveal species niche dimensions

Species responses to fluctuating environments structure population and community dynamics in variable ecosystems. Although offspring number is commonly used to measure these responses, maternal effects on offspring quality may be an important but largely unrecognised determinant of long-term population growth. We selected 29 species across a Mediterranean annual plant phylogeny, and grew populations of each species in wet and dry conditions to determine responses in seed number and maternal effects (seed size, seed dormancy, and seedling growth). Maternal effects were evident in over 40% of species, but only 24% responded through seed number. Despite a strong trade-off between seed size and seed number among species, there was no consistent trade-off within species; we observed correlations that ranged from positive to negative. Overall, species in this plant guild show a complex range of responses to environmental variation that may be underestimated when only seed number responses are considered.

Integrative invasion science: model systems, multi-site studies, focused meta-analysis and invasion syndromes

Invasion science is a very active subdiscipline of ecology. However, some scientists contend that theoretical integration has been limited and that predictive power remains weak. This paper, focusing on plants, proposes a new multi-pronged research strategy that builds on recent advances in invasion science. More intensive studies on particular model organisms and ecosystems are needed to improve our understanding of the full suite of interacting factors that influence invasions ('model system research'). At the same time, comparative studies across many study systems are essential for unravelling the context-dependencies of insights that emerge from particular studies ('multi-site studies'); and quantitative synthesis based on large datasets should be constrained to well-defined theoretical domains ('focused meta-analysis'). We also suggest ways for better integration of information about species biology and ecosystem characteristics ('invasion syndromes'). We expect that a resulting theory of invasions will need to be conceived as a somewhat heterogeneous conglomerate of elements of varying generality and predictive power: laws that apply to well-specified domains, general concepts and theoretical frameworks that can guide thinking in research and management, and in-depth knowledge about the drivers of particular invasions.

Sensitivity of grassland plant community composition to spatial vs. temporal variation in precipitation

Climate gradients shape spatial variation in the richness and composition of plant communities. Given future predicted changes in climate means and variability, and likely regional variation in the magnitudes of these changes, it is important to determine how temporal variation in climate influences temporal variation in plant community structure. Here, we evaluated how species richness, turnover, and composition of grassland plant communities responded to interannual variation in precipitation by synthesizing long-term data from grasslands across the United States. We found that mean annual precipitation,(MAP) was a positive predictor of species richness across sites, but a positive temporal relationship between annual precipitation and richness was only evident within two sites with low MAP. We also found higher average rates of species turnover in dry sites that in turn had a high proportion of annual species, although interannual rates of species turnover were surprisingly high across all locations. Annual species were less abundant than perennial species at nearly all sites, and our analysis showed that the probability of a species being lost or gained from one year to the next increased with decreasing species abundance. Bray-Curtis dissimilarity from one year to the next, a measure of species composition change that is influenced mainly by abundant species, was insensitive to precipitation at all sites. These results suggest that the richness and turnover patterns we observed were driven primarily by rare species, which comprise the majority of the local species pools at these grassland sites. These findings are consistent with the idea that short-lived and less abundant species are more sensitive to interannual climate variability than longer-lived and more abundant species. We conclude that, among grassland ecosystems, xeric grasslands are likely to exhibit the greatest responsiveness of community composition (richness and turnover) to predicted future increases in interannual precipitation variability. Over the long-term, species composition may shift to reflect spatial patterns of mean precipitation; however, perennial-dominated systems will be buffered against rising interannual variation, while systems that have a large number of rare, annual species will show the greatest temporal variability in species composition in response to rising interannual variability in precipitation.

Temporal variability in California grasslands: soil type and species functional traits mediate response to precipitation

Plant communities on infertile soils may be relatively resistant to climatic variation if species in these communities have "stress-tolerant" functional traits that limit their ability to respond to climate. Alternatively, such communities may be more sensitive to climatic variation if their relatively sparse vegetative cover exposes species to more extreme changes in factors such as temperature or wind. We compared temporal variability in species richness and composition over 10 years between grasslands on infertile serpentine and "normal" sedimentary soils. Variability in species richness and species composition tracked mean annual precipitation on both soils, but variability was lower in serpentine grasslands. Communities on serpentine had lower functional diversity and had species with more "stress-tolerant" traits than non-serpentine communities (i.e., shorter stature, lower specific leaf area, and lower leaf area). Within and between soils, variability in species richness and temporal turnover were lower in communities scoring as more stress tolerant on a multivariate index of these traits; however, community variability was unrelated to functional diversity. Within 41 species found commonly on both soils, variability in occurrence and cover were also lower on serpentine soils, even though intraspecific trait differences between soils were minimal; this suggests a direct effect of soil type on species variability in addition to the indirect, trait-mediated effect. Communities with higher biomass had higher annual variability in species occurrence and cover. Our results suggest that infertile soils reduce compositional variability indirectly by selecting for stress-tolerant traits and directly by limiting productivity. We conclude that communities on infertile soils may respond more conservatively to predicted changes in precipitation, including increased variability, than communities on soils of normal fertility.

Seed and establishment limitation contribute to long-term native forb declines in California grasslands

The effects of exotic species invasions on biodiversity vary with spatial scale, and documentation of local-scale changes in biodiversity following invasion is generally lacking. Coupling long-term observations of local community dynamics with experiments to determine the role played by exotic species in recruitment limitation of native species would inform both our understanding of exotic impacts on natives at local scales and regional-scale management efforts to promote native persistence. We used field experimentation to quantify propagule and establishment limitation in a suite of native annual forbs in a California reserve, and compared these findings to species abundance trends within the same sites over the past 48 years. Observations at 11 paired sites (inside and outside the reserve) indicated that exotic annual plants have continued to increase in abundance over the past 48 years. This trend suggests the system has not reached equilibrium > 250 years after exotic species began to spread, and 70 years after livestock grazing ceased within the reserve. Long-term monitoring observations also indicated that six native annual forb species went extinct from more local populations than were colonized. To determine the potential role of exotic species in these native plant declines, we added seed of these species into plots adjacent to monitoring sites where plant litter and live grass competition were removed. Experimental results suggest both propagule and establishment limitation have contributed to local declines observed for these native forbs. Recruitment was highest at sites that had current or historical occurrences of the seeded species, and in plots where litter was removed. Grazing history (i.e., location within or outside the reserve) interacted with exotic competition removal, such that removal of live grass competition increased recruitment in more recently grazed sites. Abundance of forbs was positively related to recruitment, while abundance of exotic forbs was negatively related. Thus, exotic competition is likely only one factor contributing to local declines of native species in invaded ecosystems, with a combination of propagule limitation, site quality, and land use history also playing important and interactive roles in native plant recruitment.

Prediction of stream fish assemblages from land use characteristics: implications for cost-effective design of monitoring programmes

Increasing human impact on stream ecosystems has resulted in a growing need for tools helping managers to develop conservations strategies, and environmental monitoring is crucial for this development. This paper describes the development of models predicting the presence of fish assemblages in lowland streams using solely cost-effective GIS-derived land use variables. Three hundred thirty-five stream sites were separated into two groups based on size. Within each group, fish abundance data and cluster analysis were used to determine the composition of fish assemblages. The occurrence of assemblages was predicted using a dataset containing land use variables at three spatial scales (50 m riparian corridor, 500 m riparian corridor and the entire catchment) supplemented by a dataset on in-stream variables. The overall classification success varied between 66.1-81.1% and was only marginally better when using in-stream variables than when applying only GIS variables. Also, the prediction power of a model combining GIS and in-stream variables was only slightly better than prediction based solely on GIS variables. The possibility of obtaining precise predictions without using costly in-stream variables offers great potential in the design of monitoring programmes as the distribution of monitoring sites along a gradient in ecological quality can be done at a low cost.