Measuring the impact of dynamic antipredator traits on predator-prey-resource interactions

A skewed literature: Few studies evaluate the contribution of predation-risk effects to natural field patterns

A narrative in ecology is that prey modify traits to reduce predation risk, and the trait modification has costs large enough to cause ensuing demographic, trophic and ecosystem consequences, with implications for conservation, management and agriculture. But ecology has a long history of emphasising that quantifying the importance of an ecological process ultimately requires evidence linking a process to unmanipulated field patterns. We suspected that such process-linked-to-pattern (PLP) studies were poorly represented in the predation risk literature, which conflicts with the confidence often given to the importance of risk effects. We reviewed 29 years of the ecological literature which revealed that there are well over 4000 articles on risk effects. Of those, 349 studies examined risk effects on prey fitness measures or abundance (i.e., non-consumptive effects) of which only 26 were PLP studies, while 275 studies examined effects on other interacting species (i.e., trait-mediated indirect effects) of which only 35 were PLP studies. PLP studies were narrowly focused taxonomically and included only three that examined unmanipulated patterns of prey abundance. Before concluding a widespread and influential role of predation-risk effects, more attention must be given to linking the process of risk effects to unmanipulated patterns observed across diverse ecosystems.

Non-consumptive predator effects on prey population size: A dearth of evidence

There is a large and growing interest in non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of predators. Diverse and extensive evidence shows that predation risk directly influences prey traits, such as behaviour, morphology and physiology, which in turn, may cause a reduction in prey fitness components (i.e. growth rate, survival and reproduction). An intuitive expectation is that NCEs that reduce prey fitness will extend to alter population growth rate and therefore population size. However, our intensive literature search yielded only 10 studies that examined how predator-induced changes in prey traits translate to changes in prey population size. Further, the scant evidence for risk-induced changes on prey population size have been generated from studies that were performed in very controlled systems (mesocosm and laboratory), which do not have the complexity and feedbacks of natural settings. Thus, although likely that predation risk alone can alter prey population size, there is little direct empirical evidence that demonstrates that it does. There are also clear reasons that risk effects on population size may be much smaller than the responses on phenotype and fitness components that are typically measured, magnifying the need to show, rather than infer, effects on population size. Herein we break down the process of how predation risk influences prey population size into a chain of events (predation risk affects prey traits, which affect prey fitness components and population growth rate, which affect prey population size), and highlight the complexity of each transition. We illustrate how the outcomes of these transitions are not straightforward, and how environmental context strongly dictates the direction and magnitude of effects. Indeed, the high variance in prey responses is reflected in the variance of results reported in the few studies that have empirically quantified risk effects on population size. It is therefore a major challenge to predict population effects given the complexity of how environmental context interacts with predation risk and prey responses. We highlight the critical need to appreciate risk effects at each level in the chain of events, and that changes at one level cannot be assumed to translate into changes in the next because of the interplay between risk, prey responses, and the environment. The gaps in knowledge we illuminate underscore the need for more evidence to substantiate the claim that predation risk effects extend to prey population size. The lacunae we identify should inspire future studies on the impact of predation risk on population-level responses in free-living animals.

Environmental forcing and predator consumption outweigh the nonconsumptive effects of multiple predators on oyster reefs

The ability to predict how predators structure ecosystems has been shown to depend on identifying both consumptive effects (CEs) and nonconsumptive effects (NCEs) of predators on prey fitness. Prey populations may also be affected by interactions between multiple predators across life stages of the prey and by environmental factors such as disturbance. However, the intersection of these multiple drivers of prey dynamics has yet to be empirically evaluated. We addressed this knowledge gap using eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica), a species known to suffer NCEs, as the focal prey. Over 4 months, we manipulated orthogonally the life stage (none, juvenile, adult, or both) at which oysters experienced simulated predation (CE) and exposure to olfactory cues of a juvenile oyster predator (crab), adult predator (conch), sequentially the crab and then the conch, or none. We replicated this experiment at three sites along an environmental gradient in a Florida (USA) estuary. For both juvenile and adult oysters, survival was reduced solely by CEs, and variation in growth was best explained by among-site variation in water flow, with a much smaller and negative effect of predator cue. Adults exposed to conch cue exhibited reduced growth (an NCE), but this effect was outweighed by a positive CE on growth: Surviving oysters grew faster at lower densities. Finally, conch cue reduced larval settlement (another NCE), but this was swamped by among-site variation in larval supply. This research highlights how strong environmental gradients and predator CEs may outweigh the influence of NCEs, even in prey known to respond to predator cues. These findings serve as a cautionary tale for the importance of evaluating NCE processes over temporal scales and across environmental gradients relevant to prey demography.

Effects of Predator Avoidance Behavior on the Coexistence of Competing Prey

Predator avoidance behavior, in which prey limit foraging activities in the presence of predation threats, affects the dynamics of many ecological communities. Despite the growing theoretical appreciation of the role predation plays in coexistence, predator avoidance behavior has yet to be incorporated into the theory in a general way. We introduce adaptive avoidance behavior to a consumer-resource model with three trophic levels to ask whether the ability of prey-the middle trophic level-to avoid predators alters their ability to coexist. We determine the characteristics of cases in which predator avoidance behavior changes prey coexistence or the order of competitive dominance. The mechanism underlying such changes is the weakening of apparent competition relative to resource competition in determining niche overlap, even with resource intake costs. Avoidance behavior thus generally promotes coexistence if prey partition resources but not predators, whereas it undermines coexistence if prey partition predators but not resources. For any given case, the changes in the average fitness difference between two species resulting from avoidance behavior interact with changes in niche overlap to determine coexistence. These results connect the substantial body of theoretical work on avoidance behavior and population dynamics with the body of theory on competitive coexistence.

Quantifying fear effects on prey demography in nature

In recent years, it has been argued that the effect of predator fear exacts a greater demographic toll on prey populations than the direct killing of prey. However, efforts to quantify the effects of fear have primarily relied on experiments that replace predators with predator cues. Interpretation of these experiments must consider two important caveats: (1) the magnitude of experimenter-induced predator cues may not be realistically comparable to those of the prey's natural sensory environment, and (2) given functional predators are removed from the treatments, the fear effect is measured in the absence of any consumptive effects, a situation which never occurs in nature. We contend that demographic consequences of fear in natural populations may have been overestimated because the intensity of predator cues applied by experimenters in the majority of studies has been unnaturally high, in some instances rarely occurring in nature without consumption. Furthermore, the removal of consumption from the treatments creates the potential situation that individual prey in poor condition (those most likely to contribute strongly to the observed fear effects via starvation or reduced reproductive output) may have been consumed by predators in nature prior to the expression of fear effects, thus confounding consumptive and fear effects. Here, we describe an alternative treatment design that does not utilize predator cues, and in so doing, better quantifies the demographic effect of fear on wild populations. This treatment substitutes the traditional cue experiment where consumptive effects are eliminated and fear is simulated with a design where fear is removed and consumptive effects are simulated through the experimental removal of prey. Comparison to a natural population would give a more robust estimate of the effect of fear in the presence of consumption on the demographic variable of interest. This approach represents a critical advance in quantifying the mechanistic pathways through which predation structures ecological communities. Discussing the merits of both treatments will motivate researchers to go beyond simply describing the existence of fear effects and focus on testing their true magnitude in wild populations and natural communities.

The feasibility of equilibria in large ecosystems: A primary but neglected concept in the complexity-stability debate

The consensus that complexity begets stability in ecosystems was challenged in the seventies, a result recently extended to ecologically-inspired networks. The approaches assume the existence of a feasible equilibrium, i.e. with positive abundances. However, this key assumption has not been tested. We provide analytical results complemented by simulations which show that equilibrium feasibility vanishes in species rich systems. This result leaves us in the uncomfortable situation in which the existence of a feasible equilibrium assumed in local stability criteria is far from granted. We extend our analyses by changing interaction structure and intensity, and find that feasibility and stability is warranted irrespective of species richness with weak interactions. Interestingly, we find that the dynamical behaviour of ecologically inspired architectures is very different and richer than that of unstructured systems. Our results suggest that a general understanding of ecosystem dynamics requires focusing on the interplay between interaction strength and network architecture.

Trophic interaction modifications: an empirical and theoretical framework

Consumer-resource interactions are often influenced by other species in the community. At present these 'trophic interaction modifications' are rarely included in ecological models despite demonstrations that they can drive system dynamics. Here, we advocate and extend an approach that has the potential to unite and represent this key group of non-trophic interactions by emphasising the change to trophic interactions induced by modifying species. We highlight the opportunities this approach brings in comparison to frameworks that coerce trophic interaction modifications into pairwise relationships. To establish common frames of reference and explore the value of the approach, we set out a range of metrics for the 'strength' of an interaction modification which incorporate increasing levels of contextual information about the system. Through demonstrations in three-species model systems, we establish that these metrics capture complimentary aspects of interaction modifications. We show how the approach can be used in a range of empirical contexts; we identify as specific gaps in current understanding experiments with multiple levels of modifier species and the distributions of modifications in networks. The trophic interaction modification approach we propose can motivate and unite empirical and theoretical studies of system dynamics, providing a route to confront ecological complexity.

Nutritional state reveals complex consequences of risk in a wild predator-prey community

Animal populations are regulated by the combined effects of top-down, bottom-up and abiotic processes. Ecologists have struggled to isolate these mechanisms because their effects on prey behaviour, nutrition, security and fitness are often interrelated. We monitored how forage, non-consumptive effects (NCEs), consumptive predation and climatic conditions influenced the demography and nutritional state of a wild prey population during predator recolonization. Combined measures of nutrition, survival and population growth reveal that predators imposed strong effects on the prey population through interacting non-consumptive and consumptive effects, and forage mechanisms. Predation was directly responsible for adult survival, while declining recruitment was attributed to predation risk-sensitive foraging, manifested in poor female nutrition and juvenile recruitment. Substituting nutritional state into the recruitment model through a shared term reveals that predation risk-sensitive foraging was nearly twice as influential as summer forage conditions. Our findings provide a novel, mechanistic insight into the complex means by which predators and forage conditions affect prey populations, and point to a need for more ecological studies that integrate behaviour, nutrition and demography. This line of inquiry can provide further insight into how NCEs interactively contribute to the dynamics of terrestrial prey populations; particularly, how predation risk-sensitive foraging has the potential to stabilize predator-prey coexistence.

A phase transition induces chaos in a predator-prey ecosystem with a dynamic fitness landscape

In many ecosystems, natural selection can occur quickly enough to influence the population dynamics and thus future selection. This suggests the importance of extending classical population dynamics models to include such eco-evolutionary processes. Here, we describe a predator-prey model in which the prey population growth depends on a prey density-dependent fitness landscape. We show that this two-species ecosystem is capable of exhibiting chaos even in the absence of external environmental variation or noise, and that the onset of chaotic dynamics is the result of the fitness landscape reversibly alternating between epochs of stabilizing and disruptive selection. We draw an analogy between the fitness function and the free energy in statistical mechanics, allowing us to use the physical theory of first-order phase transitions to understand the onset of rapid cycling in the chaotic predator-prey dynamics. We use quantitative techniques to study the relevance of our model to observational studies of complex ecosystems, finding that the evolution-driven chaotic dynamics confer community stability at the "edge of chaos" while creating a wide distribution of opportunities for speciation during epochs of disruptive selection-a potential observable signature of chaotic eco-evolutionary dynamics in experimental studies.

The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk

Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple competing hypotheses. Addressing the pressing questions in risk effects research, including how, to what extent and on what scale they occur, requires leveraging the advantages of the many methods available to characterize risk while minimizing the confusion caused by variability in their application.

Climatic variation modulates the indirect effects of large herbivores on small-mammal habitat use

Large mammalian herbivores (LMH) strongly shape the composition and architecture of plant communities. A growing literature shows that negative direct effects of LMH on vegetation frequently propagate to suppress the abundance of smaller consumers. Indirect effects of LMH on the behaviour of these consumers, however, have received comparatively little attention despite their potential ecological significance. We sought to understand (i) how LMH indirectly shape small-mammal habitat use by altering the density and distribution of understorey plants; (ii) how these effects vary with climatic context (here, seasonality in rainfall); and (iii) the extent to which behavioural responses of small mammals are contingent upon small-mammal density. We tested the effects of a diverse LMH community on small-mammal habitat use using 4 years of spatially explicit small-mammal trapping and vegetation data from the UHURU Experiment, a replicated set of LMH exclosures in semi-arid Kenyan savanna. Small-mammal habitat use was positively associated with tree density and negatively associated with bare (unvegetated) patches in all plots and seasons. In the presence of LMH, and especially during the dry season, small mammals consistently selected tree cover and avoided bare patches. In contrast, when LMH were excluded, small mammals were weakly associated with tree cover and did not avoid bare patches as strongly. These behavioural responses of small mammals were largely unaffected by changes in small-mammal density associated with LMH exclusion. Our results show that LMH indirectly affect small-mammal behaviour, and that these effects are influenced by climate and can arise via density-independent mechanisms. This raises the possibility that anthropogenic LMH declines might interact with changing patterns of rainfall to alter small-mammal distribution and behaviour, independent of numerical responses by small mammals to these perturbations. For example, increased rainfall in East Africa (as predicted in many recent climate-model simulations) may relax constraints on small-mammal distribution where LMH are rare or absent, whereas increased aridity and/or drought frequency may tighten them.

Nonconsumptive effects of a predator weaken then rebound over time

Predators can influence prey traits and behavior (nonconsumptive effects [NCEs]), often with cascading effects for basal resources and ecosystem function. But critiques of NCE experiments suggest that their duration and design produce results that describe the potential importance of NCEs rather than their actual importance. In light of these critiques, we re-evaluated a toadfish (predator), crab (prey), and oyster (resource) NCE-mediated trophic cascade. In a 4-month field experiment, we varied toadfish cue (NCE) and crab density (approximating variation in predator consumptive effects, CE). Toadfish initially benefitted oyster survival by causing crabs to reduce consumption. But this NCE weakened over time (possibly due to prey hunger), so that after 2 months, crab density (CE) dictated oyster survivorship, regardless of cue. However, the NCE ultimately re-emerged on reefs with a toadfish cue, increasing oyster survivorship. At no point did the effect of toadfish cue on mud crab foraging behavior alter oyster population growth or sediment organic matter on the reef, which is a measure of benthic-pelagic coupling. Instead, both decreased with increasing crab density. Thus, within a system shown to exhibit strong NCEs in short-term experiments (days) our study supported predictions from theoretical models: (a) within the generation of individual prey, the relative influence of NCEs appears to cycle over longer time periods (months); and (b) predator CEs, not NCEs, drive longer-term resource dynamics and ecosystem function. Thus, our study implies that the impacts of removing top predators via activities such as hunting and overfishing will cascade to basal resources and ecosystem properties primarily through density-mediated interactions.

THE ROLE OF ADDITIONAL FOOD IN A PREDATOR–PREY MODEL WITH A PREY REFUGE

In this paper, we propose and analyze a predator–prey model with a prey refuge and additional food for predators. We study the impact of a prey refuge on the stability dynamics, when a constant proportion or a constant number of prey moves to the refuge area. The system dynamics are studied using both analytical and numerical techniques. We observe that the prey refuge can replace the predator–prey oscillations by a stable equilibrium if the refuge size crosses a threshold value. It is also observed that, if the refuge size is very high, then the extinction of the predator population is certain. Further, we observe that enhancement of additional food for predators prevents the extinction of the predator and also replaces the stable limit cycle with a stable equilibrium. Our results suggest that additional food for the predators enhances the stability and persistence of the system. Extensive numerical experiments are performed to illustrate our analytical findings.

Juvenile prey induce antipredator behaviour in adult predators

It is generally assumed that the choice of oviposition sites in arthropods is affected by the presence of food for the offspring on the one hand and by predation risk on the other hand. But where should females oviposit when the food itself poses a predation risk for their offspring? Here, we address this question by studying the oviposition behaviour of the predatory mite Amblyseius swirskii in reaction to the presence of its counterattacking prey, the western flower thrips Frankliniella occidentalis. We offered the mites a choice between two potential oviposition sites, one with and one without food. We used two types of food: thrips larvae, which are predators of eggs of predatory mite but are consumed by older predator stages, and pollen, a food source that poses no risk to the predators. With pollen as food, the predators preferred ovipositing on the site with food. This might facilitate the foraging for food by the immature offspring that will emerge from the eggs. With thrips as food, female predators preferred ovipositing on the site without thrips. Predators that oviposited more on the site with thrips larvae killed more thrips larvae than females that oviposited on the site without food, but this did not result in higher oviposition. This suggests that the females killed thrips to protect their offspring. Our results show that predators display complex anti-predator behaviour in response to the presence of counter-attacking prey.

Modifying modifiers: what happens when interspecific interactions interact?

1. The strength of the trophic link between any given pair of species in a food web is likely to depend on the presence and/or densities of other species in the community. How these trophic interaction modifications (TIMs) interact with one another to produce a net modifying effect is an important but under-explored issue. 2. We review several specific types of TIMs that are well understood to address whether the magnitude of the net modification changes with the number of modifiers, and whether modifiers usually increase or decrease each other's effects. 3. Modifications of interactions are generally not independent. It is likely that TIMs interact antagonistically in the majority of cases; the magnitudes of TIMs decrease as more modifiers are added, or new TIMs reduce the magnitudes of modifications that are already present. 4. Individual modifications are likely to have a smaller effect in many-species systems than expected from independent combination of modifications measured in systems with relatively few species. Thus, models that lack explicit TIMs may in some cases yield adequate predictions for species-level perturbations, provided that the net effects of TIMs are implicitly included in measured interaction strengths. 5. Many types of TIMs share structural similarities. Nevertheless, a complete understanding of their effects may require theory that distinguishes different 'functional groups' of modifiers and addresses how these are structured according to trophic relationships.

Trait- and density-mediated indirect interactions initiated by an exotic invasive plant autogenic ecosystem engineer

Indirect interactions are important for structuring ecological systems. However, research on indirect effects has been heavily biased toward top-down trophic interactions, and less is known about other indirect-interaction pathways. As autogenic ecosystem engineers, plants can serve as initiators of nontrophic indirect interactions that, like top-down pathways, can involve both trait-mediated indirect interactions (TMIIs) and density-mediated indirect interactions (DMIIs). Using microcosms, I examined a plant --> predator --> consumer interaction pathway involving the exotic autogenic ecosystem engineer Centaurea maculosa; native Dictyna spiders (which exhibit density and trait [web-building] responses to C. maculosa); Dictyna's insect prey, Urophora affinis; and Urophora's host plant (a secondary receiver species) to quantify DMIIs and TMIIs in an autogenic engineered pathway. Both DMIIs and TMIIs were strong enough to reduce Urophora populations, but only DMIIs, which were 4.3 times stronger than TMIIs, were strong enough to also reduce Urophora's fecundity and increase the fecundity of its host plant. Prior field studies support these results, suggesting that the differences between DMIIs and TMIIs are even stronger in nature. This study illustrates that autogenic ecosystem engineers can initiate powerful indirect interactions that generally parallel predator-initiated interactions but also differ in important functional ways.

Ratio- and predator-dependent functional forms for predators optimally foraging in patches

Functional forms of predator-prey interactions are developed for predators optimally foraging on prey distributed in patches. The model uses mean free-path-length theory to develop functional forms for two idealized behaviors of prey in patches. For congregating prey that maintain a fixed density, for example, fish schools, the predation rate has a ratio-dependent form, and predator interference depends only on predator density. For sessile prey, which maintain a fixed patch size, a new predator-dependent form emerges in which predator interference depends on both prey and predator densities. The Beddington-DeAngelis equation is a special case of the sessile form. The model provides behavioral and biological criteria with which to select the functional form and ranges of coefficients appropriate for a particular food web. Finally, the model illustrates that behavior is an essential factor in predator-prey dynamics.

Resource dynamics influence the strength of non-consumptive predator effects on prey

Predators influence prey populations both by consuming individual prey, and by inducing changes in prey behaviour that limit reproduction and survival. Because prey trade-off predation risk for foraging gains, the magnitude of predators' non-consumptive effects should depend on resource availability. Studies of non-consumptive effects generally adopt either of two strategies: (i) maintaining a static ration of the prey's resources; and (ii) using resource populations that vary dynamically in response to prey behaviour. Contrasting these experimental designs using meta-analysis, we evaluated whether resource dynamics influence the magnitude of non-consumptive effects on prey growth, survival, fecundity, population density, foraging rate and habitat use. Predators had a more negative effect on prey demography in dynamic- vs. static-resource experiments. Our results highlight the importance of resource dynamics in mediating the magnitude of non-consumptive effects of predators on prey, and illustrate the often-unintended impacts of experimental design on estimates of effect size in ecological interactions.